Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/14/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
538 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 Short term forecast appears to be on track with split flow pattern bringing two main areas of precipitation toward the region. In addition, afternoon analysis showed some returns off the KMPX radar in western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota (likely associated with some isentropic lift), but surface observations were not recording any precipitation. Will need to continue to monitor trends here, as RAP soundings have shown the potential for freezing drizzle, mainly in southeast Minnesota, but run to run consistency on depth of the saturated layer has not been good, so have kept the forecast dry for now. Meanwhile, some light snow and/or flurries were falling across northeast into central Minnesota along a cold front and ahead of a trough moving into the area. The strongest forcing with this trough still looks to stay mainly north of the forecast area, with only perhaps some light snow sneaking into Taylor County. To the south, a closed low over Texas had ejected some energy northeastward, producing some precipitation across southern Missouri. This is expected to expand farther northeast and possibly get into far south/southeastern portions of the forecast area by early evening, though latest trends in most CAMs keep everything south and east of the area. For now, keeping slight chance of rain mention in a small sliver of southern Grant county. The next forecast challenge is then clouds/fog overnight into Friday morning. Most models in pretty good agreement of clouds clearing out as the cold front slides through the area this evening. However, model soundings show a shallow layer of moisture under a pretty stout inversion overnight. In addition, CAMs/SREF have pretty good agreement of fog across most/all of the forecast area. May need another Dense Fog Advisory at some point. Also, like Wednesday night, temperatures will be below freezing, so there could be some slick spots on roadways once again. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 Still looking like a fairly quiet and dry long term forecast period. Ridging will build in for the weekend and bring slightly warmer temperatures to the area, with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. A trough axis will then slide through by Sunday afternoon, though the associated low and precipitation look to stay well north of the area. Northwest flow will take over in the wake of the trough, leading to a brief cool down back into the upper 20s to lower 30s for Monday. Still good model agreement of some shortwave energy in the region on Tuesday, but trends have been farther north with any precipitation, thus keeping the forecast area dry. Then a more vigorous wave looks to dig southeast out of Canada Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Models differ in how much the wave amplifies, and thus where a surface low spins up/deepens. The 13.12Z GFS is much less amplified than the 13.00Z ECMWF and keeps the surface low and any associated precipitation north and east of the forecast area. The 13.00Z ECMWF instead deepens the surface low over or just east of the forecast area and brings precipitation chances to areas east of the Mississippi River. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 538 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 Last batch of lower clouds is making very slow eastward progress at the moment, and will hang around for much of the night, likely to be increasingly replaced by the development of fog later tonight. MVFR ceilings at LSE will lower to IFR and current VLIFR conditions for RST aren`t going to go much of anywhere overnight. Looking quite likely that RST will see dense fog develop late this evening or just after midnight, sticking around through 14-15Z before lifting, while LSE may well also get in on the act with a more brief period of dense fog either side of sunrise. Will of course have to watch trends through the night to refine the details, but many spots should see some fog before sunrise. The good news is that once fog lifts in the 14-16Z time frame, clear skies should make a welcome return for all areas into the afternoon and early evening, as winds shift around to the southwest 10-15 knots at RST, lower for LSE of course. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Lawrence
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
944 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A moist easterly flow tonight will allow patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle to develop over northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills. A better defined weather system will impact the region this weekend with periods of rain or showers Friday night through Sunday, especially from the southern tier of New York down into northeastern Pennsylvania. Then, turning much colder with snow showers around Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... With the mid evening update some minor adjustments were made based on radar trends and regional observations. Our forecast continues to be on track with the main uncertainty being the presence of Freezing drizzle and fog later on tonight south and east of Binghamton. Moisture continues to look lacking in the snow growth zone which is supportive of freezing drizzle. However, the development of precipitation is more of a question given both the HRRR and RAP are not picking up on it while the operational models do have it. Several observations are also reporting fog northeast PA as well, coverage of this may increase over the next few hours given the lowest levels are saturated along with light winds. Potential is also present for the patchy fog to cause slick spots. Will continue with an SPS given uncertainties. 320 PM Update...Some low level instability is combining with a weakening wave of low pressure to bring a line of snow showers to the eastern third of the forecast area late this afternoon. This will exit east by early evening, leaving behind some light coatings. Current late afternoon temperatures remain locked in the mid 20s to around 30 from roughly Interstate 81 east...with 32-40 west of Interstate 81. Expect very little change in temperatures through the late evening hours, then perhaps a slow rise late at night. Overnight, a moist easterly flow in the low levels of the atmosphere will upslope and lift to form areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and perhaps fog over the higher terrain of the Poconos and western Catskills. Model soundings continue to show the same signal, of saturated air in the lowest 3-5k ft agl of the atmosphere, but then no moisture to form ice crystals in the mid and upper levels. Confidence is still too low on exactly where this freezing drizzle may set up to issue an advisory at this time. Will cover with an SPS and continue to mention in the HWO. Future shifts may decide a short fused winter weather advisory is necessary, if and when reports of freezing drizzle are actually received. Areas from Binghamton north and west should be generally dry overnight, under mostly cloudy skies, with a south wind 6-12 mph. Friday: Lingering patchy drizzle, fog and pockets of freezing drizzle southeast of I-88 in the Catskills and across much of NE PA during the morning hours. The rest of the area will remain mostly cloudy or overcast through the day. South winds 8-15 mph, with a few higher gust over the ridgetops continues. A few light rain showers could skirt by across the Fingerlakes and NY Thruway corridor late morning or midday. Otherwise, most of the area looks to remain dry through the afternoon hours. It will be very mild, with above average temperatures. Highs reach 40-45. Friday night: A better defined, but still weak disturbance breaks off from the upper level low centered in the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will bring a quick shot of steady rain to parts of the area. The best moisture and forcing now looks to remain along and south of the NY/PA border...but especially across the Poconos and southern Sullivan County (NY). Adjusted PoPs further south to account for these latest trends. Now have categorical PoPs confined basically along and south of I-84...with likely PoPs across the northern tier of PA over toward Monticello. Further north, now only carrying chance PoPs for rain along the Rte 17/I-86 and I-88 corridors. North of Penn Yan, Cortland and Norwich the latest model trends now keep things dry Friday night. Rainfall amounts this period look to range from one half to one inch along and south of I-84...with a quarter to third of an inch across the northern tier of PA. Less than a quarter inch of rain is expected from the southern tier of NY northward. At this time, do not feel these rainfall amounts will be enough to cause any major hydrologic concerns...but will continue to monitor this. Temperatures remain rather mild Friday night, only dipping down between 35-40 in most locations. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Closed upper low over the Tennessee valley with double surface lows to the east early Saturday will drift east over the weekend. Differences remain between the operational Euro and GFS on the positioning of the systems and reach to the north of the precipitation field. In general, the best chance for rain will be over the PA zones, with the chance tapering off to the north. At this time, it looks like the heaviest rain will fall south of the area nearer the mid level inflow to the developing triple point east of NJ. This greatly lowers the threat of rainfall amounts reaching any flood threat threshold. No real cold air about either, so the main precip type will be liquid, at least through the short term. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A bit of cooler air begins to drift in Sunday night so there could be a bit of light snow near the end of the weekend system. Cold front with much colder air drops in behind the system Monday with some upper moisture so some snow showers seem possible or likely into Tuesday in a northerly flow. High pressure builds in for Wednesday. Later in the day, upper heights build and a southwest flow develops at the surface bringing temperatures back above normal for mid week. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A southeasterly flow of cool, Atlantic air will produce MVFR ceilings across much of the region overnight, with freezing drizzle possible near KBGM and eastward. Winds will be light and variable. Marginal conditions for low level wind shear are forecast to develop at KRME and KSYR toward sunrise and last for several hours. Conditions will mainly go to VFR tomorrow afternoon, though a few terminals will remain MVFR in low ceilings. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday morning...Rain showers and likely restrictions as a system moves through the region. Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Showers and associated restrictions possible, especially southern tier down into Northeast PA. Lower confidence. Monday and Tuesday...Possible restrictions in snow showers, especially NY terminals. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
547 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 ...Updated 00z Aviation... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 Patchy fog has lingered across much of northern Iowa this afternoon, with visibilities between 1 to 3 miles. Meanwhile patchy drizzle and light rain has developed across southern and south east Iowa, accompanied by patchy fog lowering visibilities into the 2 to 4 mile range. This is associated with low pressure centers to our south and north which have phased just enough to induce weak forcing and marginal precip. So far this afternoon models have been over zealous with precip, although the HRRR caught on later in the day. Expect this light precip to push east this evening and remain liquid as temperatures above freezing are expected until precip ends. Satellite imagery shows rapid clearing on the back side of this system as dry air filters in with high pressure building to the west. As such, have decreased temperatures across northern to northwest Iowa overnight by several degrees with temperatures likely to drop off rather quickly as skies clear. Have low teens across that area, however a few areas in the upper single digits may be possible depending on how quickly that area clears out tonight. Do expect fog to develop across northern Iowa as noted in hires solutions, similar to what we have seen the past several days. Expect fog to gradually diminish by mid to late morning. The extended forecast remains quiet as ridging builds across the area. With this, temperatures well above normal are expected through the end of the middle of next week. Expect the morning fog issues of the past few days to likely continue over the next several days, particularly north and west over areas of snow pack. Increased temperatures should help to diminish snow pack in these areas. Model solutions diverge quite a bit towards the end of the period, however there is some indication that some sort of system may impact the midwest towards the end of next week. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/ Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 Tonights forecast will be difficult with low CIGs and low VSBYs across Iowa. Clear skies are entering in the extreme northwest portion of Iowa. However, recent guidance suggests low stratus cloud cover will linger over the rest of Iowa during the evening and overnight hours. For now, MVFR conditions will become IFR mainly across the north. MVFR conditions can be expected at terminals in central and southern Iowa. While this is unfolding, the observations will be bouncing around quite a bit. But IFR conditions can be expected across the north, with MVFR across central and southern Iowa this evening. Skies will begin to clear toward the end of the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Krull
previously mentioned afternoon forecast discussion reasoning of
patchy to broken rain shower activity moving into the mid state
tonight from the southwest in a more hrly detailed grid evolution depiction. Based on the reasoning above, along with current sfc obs and satellite imagery, light rainfall amounts will mainly be confined to the TN River Valley Region thru 9 PM CST, approaching western portions of the Nashville Metro Area around midnight, with numerous light shwrs spreading across the entire mid state region by 6 AM CST on Fri. Tweaked hrly temp, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids. Current temp trends in line with overnight forecasted low temp values. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Mainly VFR conditions continue across all sites this evening. Predominant MVFR conditions roll in overnight/around sunrise Friday with rain moving in from the south and west. Hi-res guidance suggests the bulk of the rain lingers through at least the late afternoon/early evening, along with MVFR CIGS. Ceilings could go IFR under a steadier rain, but will let later TAF cycles re-evaluate this possibility. SE winds tonight slowly become ENE through the day on Friday, remaining around 5-10 kts with an isolated gust to 15 kts. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......31 AVIATION........Schaper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
901 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A developing low pressure system will eject northeast out of the southern states overnight into Friday before crossing the Mid Atlantic region this weekend. High pressure follows this system for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 845 PM EST Thursday... Clouds increasing across the region this evening as the flow backs well ahead of developing low pressure back across central Texas per water vapor loop. However evening soundings show quite a bit of dry air remaining aloft which in line with the latest HRRR should act to slow down the arrival of precip until the early morning hours and perhaps closer to dawn far southwest. Thus slowed down pops a bit overnight before having rain surge north early Friday as the conveyor belt between the coastal warm front and the upper system lifts into the area from the south. This should also help alleviate icing concerns to only the deeper valleys farther south as guidance shows a steady increase in dewpoints overnight while clouds limit much cooling. However snow pack still enough to likely result in some spotty freezing rain at the onset as it heads farther north by early Tuesday given colder temps near the ground. Thus kept in a late night mention along the Blue Ridge for now. Lows mostly in the 30s with a few spots likely around 30 before rising as the deeper moisture/rain arrives early in the morning. Otherwise little change to the going flood watch with still some concern for coastal front convection to cutoff deeper moisture transport on Friday, leaving mostly light rain within a cold wedge and limited melting to produce runoff. Previous discussion as of 258 PM EST Thursday... Flood watch posted for Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon for East of the Mountains... Upper low over New York this afternoon will slide east tonight and push off the New England coast Friday. Weak flat upper ridging will build between the low to the north and the southern Plains low this afternoon into tonight. Surface flow has weaken enough to dissipate the low level clouds in the western mountains this afternoon. An ill- defined warm frontal boundary will continue lifting northward tonight across the region. There remains some light precipitation associated with a weakening shortwave moving across the Piedmont and warm advection this afternoon. The HRRR dissipates this activity quickly this afternoon. High pressure to our north will wedge down the east slopes of the Appalachains tonight, re-enforced by a sharpening coastal front. Low pressure system in the lower Mississippi valley will lift northeast tonight into Friday. There may be enough sub-freezing air in the boundary layer for a brief period of freezing rain early Friday morning mainly west of the Blue Ridge north of Route 460 as precipitation moves in. However any ice amounts would be quite light before transitioning over to a cold, soaking rain across the Appalachians. Used Top_down tool to calculate PTYPE tonight into Friday morning. Overnight low temperatures will vary from the upper 20s in the coldest locations to the mid 30s along the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Any freezing rain Friday morning will turn over quickly Friday morning to all rain. Rain will spread northeast across our area Friday and may become heavy at time Friday afternoon into Friday night. As the precipitation advances, the low level wind field will become quite energetic with some gusty winds expected at the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. However, winds should remain below wind advisory levels. Rainfall from tonight into Friday afternoon will generally vary from around a quarter inch to around one inch. High temperatures Friday will range from around 40 degrees in the northern Mountains to the upper 40s in the far southwest mountains. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EST Thursday... Flood watch continues into Saturday, with best rains occuring Friday night/early Saturday. A fly in the ointment which would be a good thing for our area, is if deeper convection along the NC/SC coast steals moisture transport into the area, though majority of the flow is out of the south/southwest so not seeing too much of this happening, but models are shifting axis of heavier rains east. Another issue will be how much snow melt occurs given cooler temps and rainfall rates that are not that high. May turn into a case of minor flooding with ponding water. However, ensembles on the rivers showing the Dan Basin withe greatest threat of flooding. The rain will taper to showers Sat afternoon as main axis of lift shifts into the mid-Atlantic and front moves offshore. Will see threat of showery weather into Sunday with potential for high elevation snow if the upper low deepens more, but right confidence is low. Drying out Sunday evening with lingering upslope showers in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Thursday... Operational models are not consistent in the upper pattern next week, but are at least showing it dry and milder for early to mid week, as the weekend system has exited. Ensembles favor a northern stream dominated flow early in the period with heights rising, while high pressure builds overhead by Wednesday. Beyond midweek, the GFS/GEFS keep us in a northern stream flow with positive tilt trough/upper low over Texas, while the ECM increases southwest flow aloft and has more of a phased look to the trough but weaker. For now will lean toward a blend of the models and previous forecast showing dry weather through midweek, the potential for increasing threat of showers by Thursday. At the moment threat of wintry precip looks low. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 700 PM EST Thursday... Storm system approaching from the southwest will result in thickening and lowering of cloud bases overnight from south to north. High confidence forecast for rain Friday into Saturday with rain overspreading the forecast area from the south early Friday. This supports rapid deterioration of flight conditions with transition to IFR and LIFR flight categories by the end of the day Friday... low cigs/vsbys then continuing overnight Friday. In addition to the low cigs/vsbys Friday, LLWS will become a concern. Boundary layer...within 1500 feet of the ground...will be under the influence of high pressure wedge from the north. This will favor a northeasterly wind at the surface. Above the wedge, about 2kft agl, models are forecasting a 35-40 kt Low level jet, which will become more noticeable Friday afternoon and into Friday night as the storm system gets closer. Extended Aviation Discussion... Upper low is expected to pass overhead Saturday with high likelihood for IFR conditions associated with occasional showers. The system is expected to move east of the are Sunday leaving scattered MVFR conditions with showers and low cigs. Trends should feature improving conditions overall with some lingering shower threat Sunday, but then transition to VFR Monday and Tuesday as drying takes place. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 850 PM EST Thursday... Flood watch continues for areas along and east of the Blue Ridge from early Friday afternoon through late Saturday. This mainly the result of a combination of snow melt and runoff from moderate to heavy rain that is expected Friday afternoon/evening. Current area river levels remain the highest along the Dan where more melting has occurred in the last few days, while readings are much lower heading to the north where the snow pack has maintained itself a bit more providing little runoff. Just how much the earlier melt and rainfall into whats left of the snow cover coincide the keys to seeing at least small stream flooding and subsequent flooding along the Dan and perhaps lower Roanoke Rivers this weekend. Models continue to depict an inch or two of QPF Friday through Saturday night although the higher rates look to occur along the southern Blue Ridge per upslope, and across the southeast where will be closer to elevated convection northwest of the coastal warm front. However guidance also still showing differences with potential cutoff of deeper moisture to the southeast via convection, and less higher rate rainfall in such a deep wedge. This uncertainty supports just keeping mention of possible river flooding within the watch, and not hoisting a warning at this point. Also since forecast minor to even moderate flooding remains based off projected QPF into the snow, uncertainty exists given potential for limited melting given the cold temperatures/dewpoints into Friday evening. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for VAZ015>017-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...PM HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
712 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 .UPDATE (Overnight and Friday)... 00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis is showing a vigorous upper level low closing off over the southern Plains this evening. It will be this system and associated surface low/cold front that evolve eastward through the day on Friday and bring increasing rain/storm chances to west- central Florida. The system to impact us on Friday/Friday night is a rather complex one with an atypical frontal structure and evolution. The front is not going to be very progressive the next 24-30 hours, especially as it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico/Florida west coast. Several mid/upper level disturbances moving over this lower level boundary in conjunction with a highly diffluent upper level southern stream jet pattern suggest several rounds of storms may form and pivot eastward into Florida. This setup makes detailed timing for highest rain chances difficult. Other than a few showers after midnight for the northern Nature Coast, most areas should remain dry for the overnight hours. It appears likely the first round of significant showers/storm coverage will impact areas north of the I-4 corridor during the morning hours, followed by another round or two impacting the Tampa Bay Area during the mid/late afternoon or early evening hours. Yet another round, or the lingering earlier round from Tampa Bay, will then settle south and east into our southern and interior southern zones later in the evening and overnight. These initial rounds of storm (especially in the afternoon/evening) look to be the ones with the greatest potential for embedded severe and rotating storm structures. The initial round into the Nature Coast may very well have organized convection, but we will have to see if any of this activity is rooted at the surface or if its an entirely elevated convective situation. Forecasters will be closely monitoring the lower level environment to determine the potential for concerning elevated radar signals to actually impact at ground level. Greater potential for surface based convection exists later in the day across the region due to a combination of moisture/thermal advection from the south and diurnal heating. Even after the severe threat diminishes, the slow frontal movement means we are unlikely to see a defined clearing of the rain Friday night, but rather lingering elevated chances for showers/weaker storms for all areas. Of note: Many of the higher resolution NWP guidance members are showing a squall-line coming into the I-4 corridor/Tampa Bay Area region during the evening hours Friday, even late evening in a few outlier solutions. While the slow progress of the cold front could certainly make this timing a reality, the overwhelming bias associated with these model solutions is to bring MCS/squall-lines into our region late, sometimes by several hours, compared to what actually ends up occurring. The reasoning for this lies in the difficulty all NWP models have dealing with cold pool generation/evolution and propagation under and ahead of the convection. This is especially true over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. These cold pools of air very often move quicker in reality compared to the model simulations, and therefore we see the rain/storms arrive and exit quicker than the model ensembles will forecast. this bias has been applied to the current forecast related to timing of higher rain chances / severe weather threat. && .AVIATION (14/00Z through 15/00Z)... VFR conditions as BKN-OVC mid deck slowly lowers through the night. E and ESE winds under 10 knots overnight begin to increase between 12-15knots with higher gusts and become SE to SSE AFT 14-15Z. Approaching cold front bring increasing chances for showers/storms to KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ by early to mid afternoon and then continue into the evening hours. A few storms later afternoon/evening may be strong to severe. Rain/storm chances look to wait until after 21Z for KPGD/KFMY/KRSW but then linger through the evening and overnight hours. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 246 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018/ ..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY... ..HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MARINE WATERS AND BEACHES... DISCUSSION... Robust mid level low over TX this afternoon takes an easterly ridging east of FL moves away...along the western Gulf coast Fri then over the southeastern states during Sat. At the surface - ridging over FL and the east Gulf slides to the east as the surface reflection of the TX mid level low drags a cold front across the Gulf. The front reaches the west-central and southwest FL coastal waters Fri then slips across the state to the Atlantic Sat. Moisture and wind fields begin to increase over the Gulf later tonight ahead of the approaching system...shift into the coastal waters early Fri...then cross west-central FL Fri morning into the afternoon and southwest FL afternoon and evening. These times are first guess and will be adjusted over the next couple of forecast cycle. A squall line or two is expected to form ahead of the front with strong to severe thunderstorms that can produce damaging wind gusts...tornadoes or waterspouts...and locally heavy rainfall with flooding. The most active weather will be moving east across the state toward the Atlantic late Fri night. Large waves and swells will be generated in the western Gulf that translate onto area breaches for the weekend with a high risk of rip currents expected. For Sun - Thu: The mid level low exits the southeastern coast early in the period as ridging builds into the nation/s mid-section from Mexico then slides east through Wed. Surface high pressure settles into the western Gulf Sun then tracks to the eastern seaboard by midweek. On Thu a mid level short wave trough/low moves into the southern plains with a surface low/cold front forming on the western Gulf coast. The upper and surface ridging dominate for much of the period with dry seasonable temperatures. Moisture increases enough by Thu to support some showers and a few thunderstorms. MARINE... Increasing winds ahead of an approaching storm system will require small craft advisories on some of the waters tonight...and spread to the rest of the waters as the system moves into the coastal waters early Fri with thunderstorms and possible waterspouts. The front crosses the state Sat then moves out over the Atlantic. This system is generating large waves and swells in the western Gulf that will translate into the local waters for perhaps much of the weekend. High pressure begins to build into the western Gulf Sun then slides to the eastern seaboard by midweek with winds veering and diminishing. FIRE WEATHER... Atmosphere continues very moist with no low humidity concerns. Storm system coming in from the west will bring showers...thunderstorms... and locally heavy rainfall mainly Fri with some showers and a few storms into Sat. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 65 76 65 72 / 10 90 90 30 FMY 66 81 69 74 / 0 40 70 40 GIF 64 80 65 74 / 10 80 70 40 SRQ 66 76 67 72 / 10 90 90 30 BKV 63 78 65 72 / 30 100 90 30 SPG 66 76 65 72 / 10 90 90 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Mroczka Previous Discussion...Rude