Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/10/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
420 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 420 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018 Please see latest 00z Aviation Discussion && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 317 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018 No short term hazards anticipated through the next 36 hours and cool and tranquil conditions continue. However, a pattern change Tuesday and into mid-week will offer the next round of snow and elevated winds for the region and some travel impacts will be likely during this time frame. See long-term section for more details on these upcoming hazards. Latest water vapor and RAP analysis shows a closed H5 low across the north-central Plains with a shortwave ridge over the western Rockies Mountain range and digging trough along the west coast. Being on the subsident side of the H5 low with deep northwest flow, temperatures are 5 to 8 degrees cooler today than yesterday. Luckily, warm air advection will occur Monday but not in time before some chilly overnight lows. Adjusted guidance downward given current temperatures and dewpoints for Monday lows. However, temperatures will rebound as full sun is expected Monday. A nice diurnal swing of 25-30F degrees looks probable with the west downsloping winds, near full insolation, and WAA. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday) Issued at 212 AM MST Sun Dec 9 2018 Tuesday night and Wednesday night the models are showing a couple of progressive shortwaves tracking through the region. Both of these shortwave will cause strong wind speeds to develop along our wind prone areas of Arlington, Bordeaux and the southern Laramie Range. Would not be surprised that we may have High Wind Warnings posted for these areas in later forecasts. The initial shortwave on Tuesday night does does not appear to have much moisture associated with it according to the ensembles, but we will need to keep an eye on the mountains, for this wave may actually try to squeeze some moisture in that region. The better shot of more coverage of snowfall will occur on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the second shortwave passes through with a little more moisture depth and decent lift. The mountains certainly have the best shot of snow, but there is a chance for some light snow in the plains of Wyoming and Nebraska. The exception may be near the Cheyenne Ridge where downslope flow may limit the precipitation. Both of these timeframes looks to be quite windy, but there appears to be brief respite from the wind on Friday, before another shortwave dashes across the northern Rockies on Saturday and causes wind speeds to crank up again. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 420 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018 Gusty winds expected to linger across the region for a few more hours as sunlight wraps up. VFR conditions expected to persist through the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 317 PM MST Sun Dec 9 2018 Dry conditions will continue through Monday night but light mountain snow showers are looking more probable for Tuesday and into portions of the northern High Plains of Wyoming. Next round of more potent snow showers and overall coverage will be Wednesday night through Thursday morning across much of the region. Drier pattern will be in place by Thursday afternoon through the first part of the weekend. Overall cold temperatures, snow coverage, and elevated humidity values will keep fire danger low through the next several days. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...WM SHORT TERM...JSA LONG TERM...REC AVIATION...WM FIRE WEATHER...JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
523 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 The short term period remains quiet with the main concern stratus and fog development tonight. Stratus remained along the International Border and Arrowhead this afternoon but was diminishing. The clouds in the Arrowhead will likely hang on the longest into this evening. There remains some uncertainty if stratus will redevelop tonight and the RAP indicates northwest Wisconsin will have the best chance along with some fog. A shortwave will move into northwest Minnesota late tonight then through the region on Monday. Soundings continue to be very dry so we expect little from this shortwave. We do increase cloud cover overnight but only to partly cloudy for most areas with a bit more cloud over northwest Wisconsin. Lows will dip to 5 to 15 for much of the area. Any stratus/fog that forms tonight will lift through the day Monday and highs will rebound into the mid twenties to around thirty. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Mild temperatures are expected for the long term with highs trending above average. There is a chance of light snow Wednesday in northwest Wisconsin and no significant systems are forecast. A progressive pattern aloft is forecast for the upcoming week with the subtropical jet well to our south across the southern CONUS. A weak shortwave trough will move through the region Wednesday which may provide sufficient lift for a few snow showers over northwest Wisconsin. With limited moisture available, think a dusting of snow up to maybe a half-inch is forecast. Another shortwave trough will cruise eastward through the region from early Thursday morning through the afternoon. Another round of light snow showers with the trough. High pressure then returns Friday and Saturday. Southwest flow aloft may result in temperatures warmer than the consensus blend for Saturday. The deterministic ECMWF and GEM forecasts point to temperatures much above normal for the start of the weekend. Have remained close to the consensus blend for now with the GFS not quite as warm. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 VFR predominant under high pressure, but hz/br floating around. Best chance for any IFR low stratus/fog in NW WI. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Winds aloft have weakened this afternoon and we will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 4 PM. A weak trough of low pressure will move through the region Monday and will lead to stronger flow aloft starting early Monday morning. Warm lake temperatures will result in convective mixing into the stronger winds aloft and yield strong southwest winds at the surface near the Bayfield Peninsula. Conditions may become hazardous to smaller vessels before sunrise from Port Wing to Bayfield, WI. As the trough moves away from western Lake Superior Monday night, wind speeds and waves will subside with quiet conditions expected thereafter through midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 14 30 12 25 / 0 0 0 0 INL 7 26 7 22 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 9 32 12 28 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 10 29 12 27 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 15 30 17 28 / 0 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melde LONG TERM...Huyck AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
901 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Stratus low to the ground is expanding over far northern Illinois. Looking at the HRRR trends, and satellite, I have increased cloud cover and fog potential to "areas" in Illinois, and also increased clouds to the 30-40% range elsewhere overnight as the cirrus clouds are opaque enough to hide stars, and thus limit radiational cooling to a slower rate than expected. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Earlier low clouds, which blocked the sun for a time across portions of E IA and far N IL, have largely dissipated leaving behind sunny skies at mid-afternoon under the influence of high pressure. Despite the sunshine, temperatures remain below normal and managed to only recover into the upper 20s to lower 30s due to such a cold start and weak mixing, and also a period of clouds in some areas. Dry weather and moderating temperatures are expected to start the work week, as the region is governed by low level westerly flow between high pressure sinking into the Lower Mississippi Valley and low pressure passing across the Great Lakes. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 258 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Residual moist low levels and weak warm advection will result in the potential for more low clouds and fog later tonight into Monday. However, uncertainty exists on extent of both due to the likely development of southwest winds and attendant weak boundary layer mixing. Thus lower confidence on min temps, cloud cover, and fog and whether it will be more of a concern for aviation or or public. For lows went a bit colder than the blend given the clear start and light winds, and have readings from the mid teens to around 10 degrees. Modest increase in southwest flow should assist deeper mixing and lead to continued moderation of temps with widespread highs in the 30s on Monday. In the absence of any extensive fog/low clouds to start the day some areas could possibly make a run at 40 degrees along and especially south of I-80. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 258 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Monday night and Tuesday...Short wave trof dropping into the northwestern GRT LKS will induce LLVL southwesterly flow acrs the region and keep sfc temps from dipping below the mid to upper 20s Monday night. Associated sfc front may hang up along and west of the CWA on Tue as the next upstream trof slips east of the Rockies and induces LLVL cyclogenesis on the central plains portion of the boundary. Although southwesterly sfc winds may decrease as the boundary nears on Tue, enough of a warm sector draw acrs the CWA to help boost temps acrs much of the area into the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs. A deeper mix into base of robust inversion aloft to H925 MB would even support some mid 40s. With such a dry airmass in place, prefer the slower top-down saturation pace and moisture advection of the 12z GFS which would keep the area dry through 12z Wed. Wednesday...The above mentioned upper level trof shears out acrs the mid to upper MS RVR Valley this period, with the medium range models varying in strength and extent of moisture return/column saturation. The 12z GFS is less pronounced and more progressive, but doesnt`t break out light precip until late Wed morning and into the afternoon. Fcst soundings suggest a complex vertical thermal profile setting up aloft, with evapo-cooling combining with lingering above freezing layers to make for a possible wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow. By the time the GFS breaks out precip, most sfc temps besides maybe the far north should be above freezing and limit freezing rain potential. The GFS would switch a cold rain or rain-snow mix to all wet snow in the northeastern third of the DVN CWA from late afternoon and into the evening, with light snow accums possible before the precip exits off to the east by mid to late evening. Much of the rest of the area would be mainly light rain during the day Wed. The more developed 12z ECMWF closes off the upper low along and just south of the DVN CWA, and more robust dynamical cooling aloft would mean more rain-snow mix or even an earlier switch over to all wet snow during the day. Some of this would melt diurnally, but the Euro would still make for some light slushy snow accums of at least an inch in some areas on grassy/elevated sfc`s. An then there is the 12z NAM, which saturates a LLVL layer of moisture with a dry wedge lingering aloft as lift increases, setting up a freezing drizzle scenario for a few hours Wed morning before sfc temps climb above freezing. With the complexity and the system still several days away, for now will advertise rain or a rain-snow mix, with some trends in the north to all wet snow by evening. Thursday through Sunday...Assessing the latest suite of 12z medium range model runs, it`s obvious phasing and handling issues continue with respect to evolution and development of a long wave upper trof and underlying storm system at the end of the week. The 12z ECMWF and GEM phase late or don`t totally phase northern and southern stream upper waves in time to draw the system further northwest and impact the local area. This while the 12z GFS run is an outlier with a further north and west phasing that allow a portion of the initial main precip shield to funnel up along an inverted LLVL trof feature and make it acrs at least the southeastern half of the fcst area Thu night with secondary def zone type precip bands rotating acrs the eastern and southeastern CWA well into Friday. Besides maybe the far northwestern flank of the precip bands, the GFS`s thermal profiles suggest mainly rain during this period. A wintry mix may affect the CWA under the northwest fringe of the precip Thu night, which the current GFS solution suggests could be right over the MS RVR Valley. But of course, tough to get wrapped up in the details at this point with the system still almost 5 days away and model inconsistencies. But upper jet patterns of the last several model runs make a lean toward the further south and southeast phasing/storm development solutions, like the current ECMWF and GEM runs are advertising. After whatever manages to develop and move acrs the central into eastern CONUS at weeks end, wake-system upper ridging should bring about a fair wx Saturday into early Sunday. After that, lower amplitude progressive pattern may then look to usher acrs some type of trof again for more precip chances in or near the local area from late Sunday into next Monday. However, there is low confidence in adequate moisture return at that time to fuel much of anything. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) ISSUED AT 510 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Light southwest winds and a high thin overcast will continue through the night. The surface conditions remain rather hazy, which will continue to lead to a likelihood of fog overnight, with visibilities forecast to drop to 3-4 miles widespread, but potentially under a mile in more isolated locations tonight. All fog will slowly lift to near 5-6 mile visibility by mid morning. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Ervin SYNOPSIS...McClure SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
502 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 No major concerns in the short term with dry conditions expected. Afternoon satellite analysis shows an upper level disturbance diving S from SD into NE. Another weaker wave is moving SE through the Central Rockies. The biggest "eye catcher" is the departing storm over the Mid-Atlantic. Upper level ridging is situated across the western CONUS. Despite the aforementioned system dropping into the area this evening and overnight, little in the way of sensible wx is expected due to very dry atmosphere as a whole. About all we will see are some scattered high clds. NAM continues to be over aggressive with low clds/fog due to the way it is handling the ongoing snow cover. However, we are seeing temps near or above freezing this aftn which is resulting in some melting and winds are forecast to become lgt overnight. Thus, cant completely rule out some patchy ground fog late tonight. Left fog mention out of the official forecast at this time due to low confidence and limited impacts, if any. HRRR and RAP have been consistent today in forecasting little to no fog for CWA with better chcs E of the area. Lows tonight will be quite chilly again and range from single digits N to mid teens S. As for temps on Mon, some areas have exceeded expectations today whereas others are pretty close to previous forecasts. This is likely due to the non-uniform snow depth across the area as areas that have warmed up nicely (mainly S/SE CWA) have little to no snow on the ground. This overall trend is likely to continue next several days as the snow cover slowly erodes. As such, tried to reflect this pattern in Mon highs by nudging up GI to Hastings and points SE and also across KS zones. Mon should be quite similar to Sun in terms of plentiful sunshine and winds will be lgt, so overall a nice day. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 Generally quiet conditions expected for much of the week with the trend toward decreasing pcpn chcs on Thu. Temps will largely be near-above norm for the balance of the week and into next weekend. The period starts off with shortwave ridging on Tue before a weak, fast-moving wave slides through the area within the zonal/WNW flow Tue night-Wed AM. This system also looks moisture starved. The latest EC run, much like the previous run, hints at some lgt QPF for E CWA, but overall this is a low chc. Temps on Tue will be fairly similar to Mon in the mid 30s to mid 40s from N to S. Models are in much better agreement compared to 24hrs ago for the system on Thu. The Canadian model has trended much closer to the GFS/EC with good agreement now of a broad, open trough passing thru with the local CWA in between a northern vort max and a southern vort max. The southern vort max is forecast to deepen and close off well S/SE of the area and turn into another potent system for the E third of CONUS. Given the open and split nature of the system, locally, agree with latest blend of only low end pcpn chcs. Of course, there is still time for this forecast to change, but confidence is increasing that our wx will be fairly benign for the upcoming week. Temperatures should be consistently near to above normal this period. The blend continued the trend from last night in increasing temps Fri into next weekend. This has support from the EC ensemble mean as H85 temp anomalies climb from +1-3C on Fri to +8-10C on Sat. Current forecast calls for highs in the low 40s to low 50s, and this may still not be warm enough. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 500 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Any fog should remain east of the terminals tonight, and only a few high clouds are expected. Winds will remain light as they gradually turn westerly to southwesterly tonight into Monday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thies LONG TERM...Thies AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
910 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold but rather quiet weather will continue for much of the week. A Canadian clipper system with an associated moisture starved cold front will cross the area Wednesday accompanied by scattered mainly mountain snow showers. Late week a large ridge with clear skies will build over the area but move offshore by late Friday. Over the weekend a storm system moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico with bring warmer and wet weather to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Update...Minor tweaks to readings S of the cloud cover continue to fall while they hold steady beneath the overcast. Also seeing continued signs on radar of upslope snow showers along and N of the mtns. Satellite difference products showing two levels to cloud cover in the Nrn some seeder-feeder snowfall is possible...and that is where the higher snowfall totals are located in our forecast. Previous discussion...Snow showers will begin to press eastward and into the northern mountains of Maine and New Hampshire towards sunset. Latest HRRR indicates that light precipitation will slowly accumulate in this region by 23Z. Outside this region, partly cloudy conditions can be expect, but still cold with lows in the teens. Single numbers expected in the mountains where cold air advection will yield H8 temperatures near -16C by late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry and mainly clear conditions expected for Monday and Monday night as a weak and narrow ridge of high pressure crests over the region from Canada. Nearly full sunshine will allow for readings to push the freezing mark over southern areas during the day Monday. With continuing mainly clear skies and light winds Monday night, expect radiational cooling to dominate the region. This will allow temperatures to fall to near zero in northern areas by late at night. There may be some cloudiness entering far western areas by dawn from the west as a weak area of low pressure, a clipper type system, approaches from the Great Lakes region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A Canadian clipper system with very limited moisture will move through the northeast Tue night and Wed bringing scattered snow showers mainly to the mountains. Behind the clipper another shot of very cold air moves across the region late Wed into Wed night with some gusty winds. By thu the high becomes centered over the region with sunny crisp skies and calm winds. Fri the high moves offshore allowing increasing mid/high WAA clouds from the southwest. On Sat the system traveling along the Gulf of Mexico states gets kicked to the northeast and approaches the area with a strong waa pattern in advance. Rain is expected to overspread the region Sat but may start as a mix in the mtns. Models are all over the place with the system for the weekend so some hedging will be involved. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions outside the mountains. Low clouds and snow showers expected across the high terrain. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCAs will remain in place for all areas tonight outside Casco Bay. Winds to switch from the southwest to northwest after the passage of a cold fropa tonight with gusty winds expected. Long Term...No flags. SCA conds may occur over the outer waters late Wed into Wed evng. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
646 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 257 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated northwest mid/upper flow through the northern Great Lakes on the periphery of a trough through northern Quebec. At the surface, westerly flow prevailed between a ridge from the central plains into WI and low pressure over northern Quebec. Visible Satellite loop showed lingering low clouds through the Keweenaw and eastern Upper Michigan with clear skies over the rest of the area. The clouds were supported by lake moisture and shallow cold air. Tonight, persistent wnw low level flow will maintain the lower clouds over the Keweenaw and eastern Upper Michigan. With 925-900mb temps to around -7C and moisture depth also to around 2k ft mainly just trace pcpn if any is expected. Scarce ice nuclei would also support mainly fzdz/flurries if pcpn develops. Backing winds overnight should also move the clouds/pcpn out of much of the east. Over the rest of the area, radiational cooling will be strong enough even with wsw winds overnight for temps to drop to near 10F. Monday, wsw winds will favor any lingering pcpn for the nrn Keweenaw. Otherwise, sunshine will help boost temps into the upper 20s to around 30. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 343 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018 For the bulk of the extended periods, it will feature a rather benign pattern. A weak upper level shortwave will pass overhead Mon ngt, with some weak moisture expected for the eastern portions of the forecast area. POP chances are rather low; however, the concern is more with the p-type. The lower levels of the atmosphere indicate the lack of a lift component, indicating that any moisture that does arrive will be more of a drizzle or small droplets. Unfortunately surface temps will likely be sub-freezing, so the concern resides with freezing drizzle Mon ngt/Early Tue before the system departs to the east. Then as advertised, mid-level heights begin to rise Tue upstream with surface ridging progged to return and provide dry conditions for Tue-Wed. Before focusing on yet another shortwave progged to arrive from the southwest Wed ngt. Mid-level ridging remains through midday Wed as the vort max continues to inch northeast towards the Great Lakes region. Low- level moisture flow will be from the southeast helping with some better isentropic ascent; however, some dry air remains in the mid- levels and aloft, which could produce a similar issue with freezing drizzle or remain as a rain/snow mix later in the week. At this time guidance indicates precip type will start as snow before a light wintry mix develops. This system will then pass to the east, with a return to ridging and quiet weather later in the week. Temps throughout the extended periods will hover in the upper 20s to mid 30s for highs, and overnight lows will fluctuate depending on cloud cover from the teens to 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 643 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KIWD and KSAW through the forecast period. Westerly winds off of Lake Superior along with shallow cold air will maintain low cigs at KCMX with low-end MVFR conditions and some patchy fzdz possible tonight. Cigs will gradually improve during the day on Monday reaching VFR by mid to late afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 257 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018 Sustained winds will remain to around 20 knots into tonight. By Monday, the winds will become sw in the 20-30 knot range over the west. Locally higher gusts will be possible near the west side of the Keweenaw where land breeze convergence is expected. Winds will then diminish Monday night. Relatively benign conditions will then take over through early Wednesday, with winds picking back up for the latter half of the week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Beachler AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
947 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ The back edge of the cu field continues to rapidly diminish from N to S across Lower E TX/N LA this evening, as much drier air is advecting S in wake of the upper trough passage which has shifted into NE MS/NW AL. However, the RGB channel on the satellite imagery, as well as sfc obs from MLU and BQP indicate that patchy dense FG has developed over Ern Union/Nrn Ouachita Parishes this evening, although LA DOTD traffic cameras along I-20 in E MLU still indicate good vsbys attm. The last few runs of the HRRR have depicted dense FG development over the far Ern sections of Ncntrl LA tonight, and given the calm winds/clearing sky/very wet soils, believe that patchy FG will spread farther S across the far Ern sections of the region overnight. Even though satellite imagery also depicts a cirrus shield beginning to increase along the next shortwave trough axis over Ern OK ahead of a closed low diving SE across Wrn KS/NW OK attm, do not think this will deter FG development here as these elevated cigs will move in late. Have added patchy dense FG wording to these areas tonight, but with temps falling to/below freezing late, this FG may become FZFG and may deposit a thin coat of ice on elevated objects such as bridges and overpasses. Will allow the mid shift to continue to monitor trends overnight, but will not issue a Dense FG or FZFG Advisory attm given its localized nature. Also cleaned up the sky trends to match the latest obs, with a few minor upward tweaks to min temps given the recent trends and winds expected to keep the air mixed enough over much of the region and keep temps from falling much below freezing. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Sun Dec 9 2018/ AVIATION... The back edge of the MVFR cigs have reached a DKR, to RFI, to just S of SHV, to MNE and BQP line as of 00Z, with VFR cigs expected to return at LFK and MLU by mid-evening. Still seeing some 10kft cigs across SW AR/extreme Nrn LA just behind the MVFR cigs, but these will quickly diminish across N LA by mid to late evening. An upper level shortwave trough entering the Upper Red River Valley of SW OK will result in an increasing cirrus shield across Srn OK/N TX this evening, eventually spreading across much of the region after 06Z Monday. This will quickly diminish from W to E between 10-15Z, with SKC expected for the remainder of the 00Z TAF period. NW winds 5kts or less tonight will range from 5-7kts after 15Z Monday. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 32 51 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 30 50 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 24 51 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 29 50 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 27 49 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 31 53 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 31 52 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 33 55 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 15