Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/01/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
612 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther off the Southeast Coast through
tonight. The high will direct increased moisture into the
forecast area in an onshore flow. The moisture will become deep
Saturday with a warm front in the region. The warm front will
lift north of the area Saturday night but moisture will remain
high in a southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front will be in the area Monday and may linger into
Tuesday. Dry high pressure will approach from the west Wednesday
and be over the area Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: Brief light rain possible across the North
Midlands/Pee Dee early this evening. Radar showing more
significant rain over north Ga at 23z. These showers expected to
stay north and west of the region where low level warm
advection will be stronger and ridging weaker. This is supported
by latest high resolution HRRR and other guidance.
Models indicating there may be a dry period through much of the
overnight hours, then towards morning, deeper moisture will be
approaching the western cwa from central and southern Georgia.
Rain chances will be on the increase late tonight across the
CSRA due to this approaching system. Overnight lows in the upper
40s for most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models have been consistent showing deep moisture Saturday
associated with an onshore flow on the backside of offshore
high pressure and ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm
front is forecast to develop just south of the area. The NAM
surface-based LI pattern suggests this feature will stay south
of the area through the day. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF maintain
surface-based stability with positive LI values. There will be
high shear with h85 wind 40 to 50 knots. Despite the shear there
is a diminished severe thunderstorm chance because of lacking
surface-based instability. We kept isolated thunderstorms in
the forecast to account for elevated instability. The NAM
indicates the cross total reaching 23 during the afternoon. The
models have trended higher with rainfall amounts. The guidance
consensus supports amounts of one-half to three-quarters of an
inch with the higher values in the southeast section. There is
uncertainty because convection closer to the coast may limit
moisture and instability farther inland. An in situ wedge
pattern supports the lower temperature guidance.
Believe the warm front will lift north of the area Saturday night. A
warm advection pattern supports continued showers but the chance
should be diminished with mid-level drying behind the main
shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will remain high. Fog may
become an issue especially if the warm front lingers. Much of
the NAM and GFS MOS indicate fog.
Strong shear is forecast to continue Sunday with h85 wind 40 to 50
knots. The models have been consistent indicating instability as
well with surface-based LI values -2 to -4. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible but the threat is limited by continued shallow
moisture behind the lead mid-level shortwave trough and a lack
of significant low-level forcing with the cold front well west
of the area. It should be a warm and breezy day. The temperature
guidance was close with highs in the middle and upper 70s.
Forecast sounding average wind in the mixed layer supports
southwest wind gusting near 25 mph. The models keep the deeper
moisture east of the forecast area Sunday night. Diminished
convergence is depicted along the approaching cold front. The
guidance consensus supports chance pops.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will be in the area Monday into Tuesday but the
models indicate little convergence with the main front off the
coast. Deeper moisture is also forecast to be east of the
area. We kept a shower chance in the forecast with the greater
chance in the east section closer to deeper moisture. A tight
moisture gradient diminishes forecast confidence. The models
have shown consistency with dry and cold high pressure in
control Wednesday and Thursday. There may be an increase in
moisture ahead of the next low pressure system Friday but the
GFS and ECMWF keep the bulk of this moisture west of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected most of the overnight.
Restrictions expected to develop from southwest to northeast
across the region during the 12z-18z period Saturday.
Surface ridge offshore extending into the area. Zonal flow aloft
early this evening with mid level ceilings across the region.
Winds will be backing to southwest ahead of short wave trough
and expect ceilings to slower lower as moisture increases late
tonight in the low levels. However, relatively high confidence
for VFR conditions to 12z. During the morning with stronger
isentropic lift and moisture flux, ceilings will lower to MVFR
and possibly IFR at times with widespread light rain developing.
Heavier showers possible at times mainly in the CSRA near AGS
and DNL terminals where instability may develop in the
afternoon. However, confidence not high enough for thunderstorms
at terminals at this time. Widespread IFR conditions expected
after 18z. An increasing low-level jet could cause some wind
shear by the end of the period, but should remain below criteria
for mention. Winds expected to be light and variable becoming
southeast Saturday and possibly increasing in the afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of restrictions expected
Friday night into Tuesday with a stalled front in the area and
weak areas of low pressure.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1018 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to a warm front moving north
through the area later Saturday into Saturday Night bringing
showers and some storms into early next week until a cold front
pushes offshore by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Late this evening: No significant changes made with this update.
Increased sky cover over the next several hours based on recent
satellite imagery. Previous discussion continues below.
Early this evening: Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across the forecast area this evening, with considerable dry air
still in place. In fact, based on SPC mesoanalysis, precipitable
water values are around 0.8 inches or less. However, you can
clearly see in water vapor imagery that increasing moisture is
on the way as shortwave energy begins to lift northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico. The main impact of this dry air and
clear skies over the next several hours is that we should see
good radiational cooling conditions. Therefore, lows have been
cooled a few degrees across the board. Current thinking is that
we will reach our lows early tonight, with temperatures either
holding steady or rising late tonight towards sunrise Saturday.
With this window of cooling and clear skies, we can`t totally
count out fog in some areas, but will hold it out of the
forecast for now.
Regarding precipitation, with the considerable dry air in place,
it will take some time for the column to moisten. Therefore,
based on the dry air and on recent runs of the HRRR and RAP, the
arrival of showers has been delayed a few more hours. By
sunrise, current thinking is that southeast Georgia will contain
the bulk of the coverage with just isolated to scattered
coverage across southeast South Carolina.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence is high that this period will feature warm and
unsettled conditions, although the details are still a bit
uncertain, especially regarding rain timing and chance for
severe weather.
Expect showers, moderate at times, to be increasing from the
south Saturday as deeper moisture advecting in from that
direction combines with a developing warm front and upper level
energy. We think instability, especially surface-based, will be
too low to cause thunder until possibly later in the day across
GA. The warm front should push north of the area Saturday night
with a general decrease in rain chances, although a few showers
and perhaps a storm will likely linger. Although shear will be
plenty strong into Saturday night it looks like instability will
be insufficient for any appreciable severe storm threat.
However, we think southeast GA would have the best chance later
Saturday and Saturday night where the greatest instability
should occur. Rain amounts should generally be 0.5-0.75 inches
through the period. Temperatures should be steady or even rise
during the night.
Rain chances should increase at least a bit Sunday as
instability increases ahead of an approaching cold front,
although it doesn`t appear to be a washout by any means at this
time. Rain chances should increase Sunday night, especially
toward the Pee Dee/Midlands/CSRA closer to the cold front and
deeper moisture. Shear will remain strong so there is a small
chance of a severe storm with damaging winds and/or tornado.
The front should push into the area Monday with an increased
chance of showers and a few storms across the entire forecast
area through at least Monday evening, especially near the coast.
A low threat for a few severe storms will continue.
Another concern will be for some dense fog each morning due to
lowering of stratus, but especially Monday morning when there is
a better chance for sea fog also advecting onshore.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence increasing in the cold frontal passage Monday night
with most of the showers along or offshore Tuesday. High
pressure will then build Wednesday and Thursday accompanied by a
chilly air mass with temps dipping below climo values at mid
week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight at
KCHS and KSAV. There is a low end potential for some fog, but
the threat appears to be too low to include in the forecast. The
main forecast issue is timing the arrival of showers into the
terminals and the lowering of ceilings through the day. Current
thinking is that prevailing showers should arrive at KSAV around
13z with MVFR ceilings. Heavier showers with MVFR visibilities
and IFR ceilings could arrive around 18z. IFR conditions could
then linger into the evening though showers should begin to
lessen in coverage. At KCHS, have timed prevailing showers and
MVFR ceilings into the area starting at 15z. Heavier showers
with MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings have been timed into the
terminal around 20z. Also of note, there could be some LLWS on
Saturday as the low level wind field increases. Confidence isn`t
high enough at this point to include in the TAF`s.
Extended Aviation Outlook: IFR and lower conditions expected to
continue through Monday as low clouds and rain impact the area.
Reduced visibilities from lowering stratus and/or sea fog also
possible at times.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Southerly flow peaking 10-15 knots is expected
overnight as the coastal waters remain situated between
departing high pressure and a cyclone over the central plains.
Seas 1-2 ft are expected for nearshore waters, with 2-3 feet
offshore. Shower activity will begin to expand northeast across
the coastal waters prior to sunrise.
Saturday through Tuesday: Conditions will go downhill Saturday
night as a warm front moves through and then remain poor into
Monday until a cold front passes through. Strong low-level
jetting should be limited from reaching the surface in the warm
advection pattern, especially over the cooler nearshore waters,
but Small Craft Advisories are likely all waters except
nearshore GA and Charleston Harbor (starting earliest beyond 20
nm Saturday evening). Otherwise, sea fog could develop across
the nearshore waters starting Saturday night as warm and moist
air advects into the area. The fog could become dense at times
with Dense Fog Advisories a possibility at some point,
especially Sunday into Monday.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...JMC/RJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
953 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
Added a mention of patchy freezing drizzle to Itasca, Cass and
Crow Wing counties, and a portion of Aitkin county. Road reports
indicate ice formation is occurring. Also added freezing fog to
Price County as visibilities have dropped to one half mile. Made
some other minor changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
The extensive cloud cover across the Northland will not be going
anywhere anytime soon. The sun was too weak today, considering
the time of the year, to break up this thick stratus layer. The
lack of wind with the high pressure over us did not help either.
Since it will still be here going into sunset, it will surely
continue overnight. Leaned on the HRRR and 4km NAM for cloud
cover because of how well they performed today. The forecast of
cloudy skies tonight meant bumping up the overnight temperatures
a bit because of the insulation. Lows will be in the lower 20s.
A strong storm system will move into the Central Plains Saturday,
and begin to affect the Northland. Breezy east-northeast to
northeast winds will develop during the day, and snow will begin
to spread into northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota in
the afternoon. Gale-force winds will develop over Lake Superior.
The humid flow from the lake could result in some bands of light
precipitation downwind near the Twin Ports and Ashland areas. The
4km NAM, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM are picking up on this. This drizzle
and light rain could be freezing drizzle and freezing rain, but
temperatures should primarily be warm enough to prevent
significant icing. However, it will be something to keep our eyes
on. The lakeshore areas of Duluth and Superior could get wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph, and other areas downwind of Lake Superior
can expect gusts of 20 to 30 mph. High temperatures will range
from the upper 20s across northern Minnesota to the lower 30s
downwind of Lake Superior.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
A cyclolytic low pressure system will glide across the Great
Lakes region. This has some potential to bring snowfall to NW WI,
and NW WI may even need an advisory if an FGEN band develops along
its northern flank. In this package, continued the trend to
minimize the mixed precip keeping anything that falls as snow.
Profiles are supportive of just snow until late in the system when
temperatures aloft warm. Overall, on its current consensus track,
the storm just skirts our area to the south and east. A drift
northward could change this, but that does not appear likely. Lake
effect snow will likely impact the South Shore of Lake Superior
after the system passes as winds turn to the NW.
After this system moves eastward, cold air will funnel in and
linger for the remainder of the forecast. A clipper system or two
should cross on NW flow mid and late week, but it doesn`t look
like any significant snow expected in the next week besides this
weekends` storm and any lingering lake effect.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
High pressure was in the neighborhood at the start of the
forecast. Plenty of low level moisture was around with areas of
BR. Widespread IFR clouds covered the terminals. HIB and INl will
see cigs improve to VFR through mid morning. Vsbys were in the
MVFR/IFR range, with pockets of LIFR and FG, especially at DLH.
Vsbys will also improve to VFR at all sites by 12Z. As the high
departs, the surface wind will turn northeast after sunrise, and
increase in speed with some gusts at HYR/BRD/DLH by late morning
or around noon. A system well to the south of the terminals will
bring some light precipitation toward HYR by the end of the
forecast. Due to low confidence in timing, used a VCSH mention.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
Gale warnings have been issued for much of Western Lake Superior.
The zones north of Taconite Harbor were especially tricky given
that the winds will be nearly parallel to the shoreline and the
way the terrain is inset may prevent the gale gusts there. So, for
that fact left them out of the gale warning though gusts to 30 kt
will likely be common. Elsewhere in the gales, winds will be
gusting to 35 to 40 kt for many hours out of the northeast. Waves
should build above 10 ft fairly quickly after the winds begin to
accelerate and should remain high through Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 32 24 28 / 0 20 30 20
INL 22 27 19 25 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 25 33 22 26 / 0 10 20 10
HYR 25 34 30 31 / 0 50 70 30
ASX 26 35 30 32 / 0 40 50 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for LSZ121-
142>148.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
LSZ140-141.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...GSF
MARINE...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Concerns: Convection at the TAF sites and strong west winds on
Saturday.
A dryline is marching east into the region and storms are
developing along and just east of the front. Strong lift
associated with a strong upper level disturbance will continue to
support storms along this boundary as it moves east this evening.
Thunderstorms are likely to impact the Metroplex airports between
02-04Z. These storms could be severe, and a Tornado Watch is in
effect. To the south, the thunder threat appears lower as the
best lift will remain to the north, and have opted to only mention
a VCSH in the KACT TAF between 03-05Z. However, this may need to
be amended for a TS mention depending on trends the next 1-2
hours.
Breezy and gusty south winds will continue until the convection
passes, and then southwest winds are expected for the remainder
of the night. By midday Saturday, breezy and gusty west winds of
15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts will be possible for nearly the
remainder of the day. This will have some impacts on area runways.
Wind speeds are expected to diminish late Sunday afternoon and
back to the southwest.
MVFR cigs that developed at sunset this evening will become VFR as
the dryline passes, and VFR cigs will prevail through the end of
the valid TAF period.
JLDunn
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 346 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018/
/Tonight Through Saturday Night/
We continue to analyze 3-hourly sounding analysis through early
this evening, with a mid-afternoon(or 21z) sounding in the air as
we speak. These frequent soundings are helping us dissect our
thermodynamic profile for the area, as we already know the
southwesterly deep bulk shear profiles of 45-50 knots will exist
into this evening, as well as increasing large-scale ascent.
Earlier, an 18z sounding indicated only a slight weakening of the
elevated mixed layer(EML) or cap aloft with bulk of the moisture
either contained below 850mb or above 400mb. Some slight increase
of MUCAPE was evident with the steepening of mid level lapse rates
aloft. This is likely the reason any warm-sector showers or
isolated storms have been relegated within a deeper moist axis
from far East Texas into Louisiana and the Ark-La-Tex. Around
here, it`s been more resistant to development to this point due to
it being too dry the 700mb-850mb layer. This layer is critical for
the development of deep updrafts and consequently thunderstorms. We
should know more after this writing on the extent of weakening of
the EML and where best storm initiation will be.
At this moment, we still expect the deepest moisture to be across
our far eastern counties, where 40-70% POPs will be advertised,
with only slight chances across the I-35 corridor and points west.
Changes in the SPC risk areas earlier are agreed upon here due to
the aforementioned dry and deep EML from earlier today. Current
feeling is a shortwave over the New Mexico/West Texas border will
continue lifting east toward our area by 5-7 pm with the arrival
of a surface trough. Our CAMs (convection activating models) have
struggled mightily and now as I write this, the HRRR wants to
develop a few supercellular storms further west than what was
shown for several hours earlier near Montague Co and across out SW
counties. Our other high-resolution models want to wait til closer
to mid evening and mainly east of I-35 and with the aforementioned
EML overhead in mind, I have leaned toward this solution versus
the HRRR with all the storms in the western counties. It
definitely bears watching. Otherwise, the strong mid-level
shortwave and associated surface trough will track across the area
late this evening and through the overnight hours. I have left a
chances for storms between midnight and 3 am CST across the far
east and southeast counties and with very strong wind shear in
place and ascent, even a chance for a severe storm or two in the
time window across the areas. As for severe weather modes, all
modes of severe weather are possible with any discrete storms
through mid evening. Convective activity should congeal more into
a semi-linear, broken line of storms or QLCS with a strong LLJ
driving more of a damaging winds and marginally severe hail
threat.
Breezy west-southwest winds and dry air will result in
temperatures starting off breezy and cool in the 50s Saturday
morning, before gusty west winds 15-20 mph and plentiful sunshine
take over for a windy and warm day for December 1st(Saturday).
With areas across the western 2/3 of the CWA missing out on the
more widespread wetting rainfall, the expected gusty west winds,
low afternoon humidity values in the 20s, and warm temperatures
will bring an elevated fire weather danger to a good part of the
area. Despite the winds, the insolation and westerly flow leads me
to believe model blends are trending too cool and have gone more
into the lower-mid 70s most areas outside of the immediate Red
River valley where cooler 925mb-850mb temperatures will reside. It
is possible a low end wind advisory may be needed for especially
the northern half of the CWA on Saturday.
Mid level flow should continue to deamplify into more of a zonal
flow overhead, as our strong shortwave disturbance departs
northeast away from the area. The strong west winds will decouple
and fall to around 10 mph overnight. Still, the dry airmass in
place will allow lows Sunday morning to fall into the 40s
areawide.
05/
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 346 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018/
/Sunday Through Thursday/
Another mid level shortwave arrives Sunday and Sunday night and
will amplify the flow aloft enough to support a cold front into
the area late in this period(mostly Sunday night). This will bring
the normal early December chill back to the region for the first
half of next week and have leaned toward colder European and NAM
temperatures for this time frame. Highs Monday and Tuesday will
likely struggle to get out of the 40s with the expected strong low
level cold advection and increasing cloud cover associated with
this second shortwave disturbance. A few models are indicating
enough frontogenesis within the mid levels from the Red River
Valley into Oklahoma that some very light precipitation could
develop. Unfortunately, much of this would struggle to reach the
surface with much of the atmosphere below 700mb expected to be
pretty dry. In addition, temperatures(even lows Monday morning)
will remain above freezing, thus no wintry precipitation is
expected. Freezing temperatures with continued brisk north breezes
continue for Tuesday morning, however by this time all the
frontogenetical and isentropic forcing will have exited the area
well beforehand.
Otherwise, a slow-warming trend occurs after a chilly start
Wednesday and continues through the end of the week, as the cold
and broad surface ridge slowly shifts east of the area with
southerly low level flow and surface winds returning to the area.
A strong mid level low or trough will organizes just off the
Southern California coastline during this time with increasing low
level warm advection and periodic disturbances arriving within the
confluent, faster flow aloft over North and Central Texas. I have
left a persistent forecast with increasing chances for a cold rain
or showers, as highs struggle into the 50s and remain just under
seasonal normals for first week of December. At this time, we do
not expect any wintry precipitation for the end of the week.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 75 47 66 41 / 30 0 0 0 5
Waco 53 75 47 72 44 / 30 0 0 0 0
Paris 54 70 45 63 39 / 70 0 0 0 10
Denton 52 73 44 64 38 / 30 0 0 0 5
McKinney 53 72 44 64 39 / 40 0 0 0 5
Dallas 56 74 48 67 43 / 30 0 0 0 5
Terrell 53 74 46 67 41 / 40 0 0 0 5
Corsicana 54 74 47 69 43 / 40 0 0 5 0
Temple 53 75 47 72 45 / 20 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 51 73 43 66 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
82
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
All systems are go for a high-impact winter storm.
No changes in Warning/Advisory with this fcst pckg.
This storm is on our doorstep. IR satellite is already showing a
blossoming baroclinic leaf from Neb-TX. WV imagery shows the trof
over the Desert SW has become negatively tilted.
Aloft: A low will form over the TX/OK panhandles within the neg
tilt trof tonight and head across Ern KS into SW IA by 00Z/Sun.
Roughly a track from LBL-MHK-DSM. The low will stall near MHK for
a time Sat.
Surface: 994 mb low pres is along the CO-NM border at 19Z. The
last 2 runs of all available mdls fcst it is deepen to 987 mb
over NE KS by 12Z/Sat with it occluding over SE Neb during the
day.
Rest of this afternoon: Cldy with steady temps in the upr 30s-
low 40s. There are some echoes on radar...but these are mid-lvl
and falling into very dry air in the 850-700 mb layer. The closest
reaching the ground is at HYS and CNK. But expect more and more
of this to begin reaching the ground as sunset approaches.
The NAM and NAM nest have been given the least weight in our
reasoning due to its W bias. Prefer a blend of the 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS
and 00Z/12Z EC and RAP mdls.
Here is how we currently foresee this evolving: The rain you
currently see over KS will blossom/expand as it lifts N and
overspreads the CWA this evening. By midnight...the comma-shaped
precip shield of rain will have developed and the dry slot will
be heading N thru Ern KS. After midnight...the commahead will be
rotating cyclonically over the GID CWA as the 700 mb low lifts to
near CNK by 12Z/Sat. The temp profile is fcst to cool starting in
the W around midnight (MCK-LXN-ODX) and that will begin to change
the rain to snow. If sfc temps cool faster from CAA...the leftover
warm nose around 780 mb could result in a little frzg rain in the
transition. The rain should change to snow from W-E and by dawn
most of the CWA should be snow.
Mainly snow will fall thru the AM (6 am-12 pm). We are within 24
hrs of the event...and there is still uncertainty on where the dry
slot will be at midday Sat. The GFS actually keeps the dry slot E
of the CWA Sat with its slightly further SE low position. However
...prefer the EC which has been rock solid consistent on its low
close to CNK (but the 00Z run was as far NW as HJH). I like the
idea of the dryslot moving into our counties along and E of Hwy
281. The 12Z EC came in a little toward the GFS direction...not
completely drying out the DGZ. At the least...we should see snow
lighten up for a bit late AM to early afternoon along Hwy 81. If
the 00Z EC is right though...snow could end for a bit (although
light drzl or frzg drzl will probably be occurring). The 19Z RAP
still supports the dry slot moving in E of Hwy 281. Snow will
still be falling W of Hwy 281.
As the 700 mb low heads E in the afternoon...snow will spread
back into area E of Hwy 281. The heaviest rain/snow will fall
tonight thru the daytime hrs Sat.
Changes since the 4 AM fcst pckg: Used consensus of model 2m
temps for tonights lows and tomorrows highs. That translates to
temps remaining mostly at or a little above 33F...and less of a
threat for icing/frzg rain. The warning/advisory message still
mentions a light glaze. It can`t be completely ruled out...but it
is not currently expected to be significant.
Snow: Most of it will fall late tonight thru Sat...but some
lighter snow will cont into Sat night and Sun. The snow character
will be hvy/wet until sunset Sat. Thereafter...as temps turn
colder the SLRs ratios will increase and the snow will become
lighter.
Current expected accums are not much diff from earlier
expectations:
1-3" N-cntrl KS
2-6" from Neb-KS state line up to Hwy 6
4-8" I-80 corridor
6-9" N of the Tri-Cities
This has foot potential probably somewhere along and N of Neb Hwy
92.
Winds: they ramp up late tonight and are worst thru Sat eve.
Current expectation is 20-30 mph with G30-35 mph. Went above MOS
based on 00Z/12Z 850 mb EC winds of 35-40 kt. That is
disconcerting. The only reason I didn`t try to coordinate issuance
of the Blzd Wrng is that the GFS winds are not as strong. If GFS
comes in stronger...it may be issued with later fcst updates.
Blowing and drifting will be a problem...espcly after snow becomes
lighter.
Travel: Not recommended tomorrow. Thankfully this is occurring on
the weekend and no commutes are involved. But be prepared for
cancellations of scheduled activities. Some county roads could
become impassable N of I-80.
Expect plowing/de-icing ops at airports. Runway closures likely.
Remember...an accident on a limited access road like I-80 can
result in big backups and delays. If it`s snowing heavily...that
is bad news. If you plan to travel...take it slow and have
blankets/food and water with you in case an accident slows down or
halts travel. Do not leave your vehicle if you get stranded.
We have coord with NDOT to enhance travel messaging. A conf call
was also conducted with other public safety/emergency mgmt
partners.
Snow Reports: Please submit them via social media or via our
webpage under Current Hazards --> Submit a report. We are
especially interested on when you reach 6" at your location and
any storm total amts. Any reports of mixed precip (frzg rain/sleet
or rain/snow mix) will also be helpful.
Skywarn/HAMs will be in the office tomorrow to help solicit
reports.
Thunder: could it occur? Absolutely...but it should be a couple
isolated strikes here and there...probably SE of the Tri-Cities. At
this point did not want to complicate the fcst further for something
that will probably be brief. But know it`s a possibility.
Concerns:
1) The changeover from rain to snow. Do we have it timed close? If
it occurs later than expected...this will cut into snow amts. Just
know that chgovr may be off an hr or 2.
2) Dry slot. It could be a major player and could impact the fcst
negatively. If the GFS is right and the dry slot stays over Ern
Neb...our current snow amts may not be high enough from Hwy 281-Hwy
81.
3) Associated with the dry slot...will sfc temps even be cold enough
for frzg drzl? Consensus of short-term mdls indicates temps will
hover around 33-34F.
4) Temps. They will be right on the edge for rain vs snow and are an
important component in our precip type algorithm. If our temps are
off even a little...this will impact what type of precip we are
fcstg and when.
5) Will we need to upgrade to a Blizzard Warning? Am concerned about
the stronger low on the EC. The 00Z/12Z EC winds at 850 mb are 35-40
kt 18Z/Sat-06Z/Sun.
There is always a surprise with a storm like this. Rain changing
to snow is espcly tough because we have to balance how much rain
will fall before the chgovr. We have conveyed it the best we can.
Minor adjustments probably will occur tonight as we hunker down
and ride it out. Extra staffing will be on-hand here beginning at
4 AM.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
Sat night...periods of lighter snow with minor accum will cont
Sat night thru Mon AM...but no appreciable accum is expected after
Sun.
The persistence of the light snow will be troublesome for those
attempting to clear roads/parking lots and sidewalks. It will be
periodic. It won`t be snowing all the time.
Very little time invested beyond this storm. This sys will
establish a new longwave trof over the CONUS with split flow. The
EPO will spike negative next wk (AK high over an E Pac low off
CA). This pattern always opens the door to direct Arctic discharge
into the CWA.
Sun begins a multi-day stretch of temps not reaching 32F over most
of the CWA. In fact...most places will see highs in the 20s from
Sun-Fri. This will probably be the coldest start to Dec since
2005!
Tue-Thu are currently dry. Anything that might get added to the
fcst later should be insignificant. Certainly some flurries or
brief snow shwrs will be possible with the Arctic frontal passage
Thu. There will be a late-week trof moving out of the Desert SW
into the Srn Plns. Most of the precip is currently looking like it
will remain S of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
VFR and MVFR ceiling currently prevail at and near the TAF sites,
but stratus is forecast to lower with ceilings dropping to IFR
over the next couple hours. IFR (or lower) conditions are then
expected to continue through the TAF period.
Areas of rain are moving into the area currently. Off and on rain
will continue overnight before changing to snow around 11-13Z
Saturday morning.
Model soundings indicate that snow may change to drizzle at times
through the late morning and afternoon on Saturday.
Wintry precipitation will continue through Saturday night and
Sunday.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Sunday for NEZ064-076-077-082>085.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
847 PM MST Fri Nov 30 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM MST Fri Nov 30 2018
have updated the forecast to add in a mention of an isolated
thunderstorm thru 06z saturday for areas along and east of highway
25. a few isolated strikes have been showing up in the last hour.
main concern for the mention of thunder is the isolated potential
moderate rainfall that could briefly cause ponding on roadways...in
addition to reducing visibility for travelers with fog still
around.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Fri Nov 30 2018
The Tri-State area is expected to be situated on the western/
southern periphery of an intensifying mid-latitude cyclone this
weekend. Considerable uncertainty persists with regard to
precipitation type/amounts -- which will be highly sensitive to
the precise evolution of the parent upper wave and attendant
surface cyclone lifting northeast from the TX Panhandle into
central/eastern Kansas tonight and Saturday.
The latest guidance has changed relatively little compared to
prior model runs. The overall trend remains the same, i.e.
greatest impacts will be north & east of Goodland -- in closer
vicinity to the developing deformation band /strongest mid-level
frontogenesis/ on the N-NW side of the intensifying surface
cyclone.
Through Tonight: With little in the way of low-level thermal
advection, precipitation type is likely to be rate-driven this
evening into tonight (i.e. the heavier the precip, the greater the
chance it will transition to snow). High resolution simulated
reflectivity products from the NAM NEST and HRRR suggest that
convective precipitation may develop in eastern CO and extreme
western KS (along/west of Hwy 27) this evening -- or north and
east of Goodland overnight -- in association with strong DPVA
/layer-lifting/ and the release of convective instability. In the
aforementioned areas, locally heavy wet snow /thunder/ cannot be
ruled out, though such situations are inherently low confidence.
Saturday-Sunday: Strong NW winds are expected on the western
periphery of the intensifying mid-latitude cyclone during the day
Saturday, with maximum sustained winds in the 30-40 mph range and
gusts as high as 50-60 mph, particularly in northeast CO and
extreme northwest KS. Winds will gradually subside late Sat into
Sat night. The latest guidance continues to suggest that the
developing deformation band will narrowly miss the Tri-State
area, with the bulk of precipitation falling to the north/east in
central Nebraska. At the southern-western periphery of the
deformation band in southwest Nebraska, snow accumulations could
range from 3-6" (primarily Red Willow county). A tight gradient in
snow accumulation is likely invof the NE/KS border.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 111 PM MST Fri Nov 30 2018
This period will be dry as an omega high develops over the Plains
behind the exiting winter weather system. By Tuesday the high
pressure will move east, with the upper level flow transitioning
to northwest flow. A couple clipper systems will move through,
however most of the lift associated with them will be north of the
forecast area.
Friday night another deepening upper level short wave trough will be
approaching from the southwest. Surprisingly at this time the
mean of the GEFS is also showing this short wave trough, similar
to what the GFS and ECMWF both show. Current track shows most, if
not all, of the precipitation remaining south of the forecast
area.
Temperatures will be coldest Monday and Tuesday, with lows falling
into the teens. Wouldn`t be surprised if the lows continue their
cooling trend in the coming days given the CAA; especially if the
cloud cover is not in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 445 PM MST Fri Nov 30 2018
Dense fog transitioning to wintry weather will be main focus for
both terminals. Conditions will be IFR or worse thru the forecast
period with ceilings OVC002-003. KGLD may see switch to
MVFR...BKN025/3sm BR...by 16z Saturday...but depends on speed of
system. Visibility in snow/fog will be 1 1/2sm or less.
Winds for KGLD...ENE around 10-20kts...especially before 03z. By
07z Saturday...N 15-25kts w/ gusts to 40kts after 16z.
Winds for KMCK...E around 10kts thru 04z Saturday...becoming
N around 10kts. By 07z...N 10-20kts w/ gusts to 35 kts after 12z
Saturday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for
KSZ001>004-013>016.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Sunday for COZ090-091.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
844 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
.UPDATE...
Minor tweaks to the forecast package tonight in terms of
temperatures and dewpoints. Main concern over the next few hours
and into the overnight hours will be the areas of fog and at times
dense fog along the nearshore waters and in both Matagorda and
Galveston Bays. Have just gone ahead and added a Dense Fog
Advisory in effect for Matagorda and Galveston Bay through 9 AM
tomorrow morning. This sea fog does have the potential to drift
inland along the coast, potentially hindering visibilities over
the coastal counties. The dry line which is continuing to sag
southward through the region tonight, and currently draped across
the Red River Valley and back towards San Angelo will continue to
shift southward through the overnight hours. This will eventually
help visibilities to improve by the morning hours as dry air
filters in.
Besides the fog threat, there remains a chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms tonight. The HRRR at this time appears to
be the best performer in terms of short term guidance and has a
line of showers and isolated thunderstorms reaching our northern
zones from College Station to Crockett between 06-09Z. As the
surface low ejects east, the showers and potential for thunder
along this boundary quickly dissipate leaving mostly light
showers, mainly east of I-45. Otherwise, raised low temperatures
overnight a touch to account for the shield of low clouds which
should remain over the area through the morning hours.
Hathaway
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018/
AVIATION...
Ceilings this evening are making a transition from VFR to MVFR as
airmass cools after sunset. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
will support lower ceilings. Winds should remain 5-10kts so do
not expect there to be widespread fog but sea fog may be an issue
for KGLS for much of the night. Ceilings should become high end
IFR 04-07Z this evening ahead of a Pacific front. There may be
some showers and perhaps an isolated storm for KCLL/KUTS but
otherwise not expecting much activity tonight. Winds turn SW to W
with the front around 10Z to 14Z across the area and drier air
should mix and cause clouds to scatter. Look for VFR conditions
mainly after 16Z with west winds. There could be some gusts around
20kts with good mixing in the boundary layer during the
afternoon.
Overpeck
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 75 48 75 50 / 40 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 66 78 51 78 55 / 40 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 66 74 59 73 61 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday afternoon
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Update...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
Dense fog is expanding from east to west generally along the I-74
corridor. HRRR and RAP guidance are pointing toward an expansion
of dense fog to the west. For now, the dense fog advisory was only
extended westward to Woodford and McLean counties. Other nearby
areas outside the advisory could see spotty dense fog as well.
Dense fog should improve as rain develops from the south.
Low temps have likely occurred in most areas already tonight, with
southerly winds, increasing clouds and advancing rains all working
to warm the surface temperatures the rest of the night.
Main update this evening was to expand fog coverage and
intensity. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast looked on
track. Widespread rains should be ongoing in our entire forecast
area by sunrise on Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
Areas of fog are possible again tonight with increasing boundary
layer moisture. Dense fog is possible this evening especially
where deeper/melting snowpack exists across the far north. The
dense fog should tend to dissipate after midnight as easterly
winds increase in a tightening gradient ahead of deep low pressure
over the southern Plains.
Forecast focus is on storm system impacting the area tonight and
Saturday as an occluded low pressure tracks into southern Iowa by
Saturday evening. Elevated warm/moist advection ahead of this
system will spread widespread showers across the CWA from south
to north after midnight. Moisture transport and forcing suggests
0.50-1.00" rain totals will be common by time the warm advection
precip shuts off from south to north during the morning hours.
The surface warm front is expected to lift north of I-74 by 21z.
South winds gusting over 25 MPH will help push highs in the mid
50s to mid 60s south of the front (except mid 40s where snowpack
remains - primarily Knox to Stark counties). Attention turns to
the chance for severe thunderstorm development during mid
afternoon to early evening. As the dry slot overspreads the area,
lapse rates steepen amid strengthening wind fields aloft.
Forecast 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 kts combined with surface
based CAPEs up 500 J/kg will support the potential for severe
convection, ahead an approaching shortwave. This is a conditional
severe weather threat, much will depend on some clearing to
increase surface based instability. If forecast conditions
materialize, severe wind gusts within a broken line of cells looks
to be the primary severe threat, although the degree of low level
wind shear (0-3km SRH 200-300 m2/s2) does suggest a few brief
tornadoes possible. CAMs are in fairly good agreement with storm
coverage and timing primarily 21z-01z. SPC 1730z/day 2 outlook
shows marginal risk for most of the CWA south of where snowpack
exists. The severe weather picture will become clearer as forecast
details are worked out through tomorrow morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
Low chance pops will remain over the northern third of the area
for Saturday night through Sunday night, as the surface and mid
level troughs linger over that area. Rain will be the dominant
p-type through Sunday afternoon, with some light snow possible
Sunday night. No accumulations expected.
The remainder of the forecast is primarily dry and cold through
the work week. Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures well
below normal with highs not expected to get out of the 30s. A
couple weak disturbances for the last half of the week have low
chance pops for light snow in the blended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
A strong surge of isentropic lift ahead of the approaching low
pressure system will cause rapid saturation of the lowest levels
of the atmosphere. Widespread rain showers will advance northward
through central IL after midnight, with IFR, LIFR and even VLIFR
conditions possible. LIFR looks to be the primary category at all
TAF sites after around 04-07z. Per the latest HRRR, the LIFR clouds
will form nearly overhead, or expand from east to west and south
to north with time overnight. Very little improvement is expected
for much of the day on Saturday, until the dry slot pushes over at
least SPI after 21z, possibly bringing MVFR cloud ceilings.
LLWS appears likely tomorrow morning, despite gusty surface winds.
Will monitor for possible thunderstorm development earlier than
21z, which would preclude the need for non-convective LLWS.
Wind directions will remain easterly until tomorrow afternoon,
when they shift toward the southeast. Surface wind gusts of
25-30kt are expected during the steady rains late tonight and
tomorrow morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for ILZ031-038-
043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
901 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
Mid-evening update to extend and refine hourly forecasts of
temperatures, wind, wind gusts,rain, and thunderstorm chances
through 6 pm Saturday evening.
From the perspective of the NAM/RAP guidance, mixed layer and most
unstable CAPE profiles increase markedly in the surface to 3km
layer in the western sections of southeast Missouri of the WFO
PAH forecast area shortly after 12z, with a better contribution of
CAPE above 1 kilometer through 15z.
The RAP guidance this evening signals 0-2km lapse rates rising
above 6C/km between 15-16z (9-10 am CST) Saturday over the western
four counties of southeast Missouri. Anticipate that any
thunderstorms developing in this corridor of sharper lapse rates
will lead to a much greater probability of downward transport of
winds approaching severe levels.
Strong, mainly elevated storms may ramping up as early as 5-6am
Saturday over extreme western sections of southeast Missouri. Hail
and isolated damaging winds may be an initial concern with
elevated storms in the 5 am to 9 am time frame over southeast
Missouri. Damaging winds and isolated tornado potential may be
slightly better in the 9 am to 1 pm time frame in eastern sections
of southeast Missouri.
The higher resolution guidance has been supporting a slower
departure of deeper layer moisture ahead of the dry slot, so
strong to potentially severe storms could linger into the middle
of the afternoon east of the Mississippi River.
Even with the passage of any line of storms, mixing within the
lower levels of the atmosphere will likely generate wind gusts
near 40 mph into the early early afternoon along and west of the
Mississippi River after thunderstorms have passed through the area.
This could place part of southeast Missouri close to Wind
Advisory criteria along and west of the Mississippi River.
Of course, heavy rain, generally between one and two inches will
be most prevalent tonight into Saturday morning over southeast
Missouri. If there is any training of storms east of the
Mississippi River, locally higher amounts will be possible as
well. Will need to watch for localized flood potential with higher
rainfall rates.
Had strongly considered adding a mention of severe storms in the
text, tabular, and gridded forecasts for Saturday with this
evening forecast update. However, the evolution and translation
of the MCS`s in OK/AR may introduce slight mesoscale adjustments
to the overall wind and moisture fields overnight and could impact
any timing, intensity, or coverage of strong to severe storms. The
same reasoning applies to any consideration of a Wind Advisory for
southeast Missouri at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018
A lot going on during this period.
Currently a warm front sits along the KY/TN border with 70 degrees
to the south and 50s to the north. A few showers were along and
mainly south of the boundary.
The warm front is expected to lift north tonight as a trough at
500h moves from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. A
80 kt jet round the base of the trough and subsequently a strong
850h jet of about 60 kts develops over Arkansas.
Showers will become widespread this evening with a few
thunderstorms as MUCAPE increases. Overnight a dry slot will form
over Texas and Arkansas. Stronger storms may move into the far
western portions of southeast Missouri toward dawn. The HREF has a
few updraft helicity tracks over that area. Carter, Ripley, Wayne
and Butler are now in a marginal risk for late tonight.
By 12z the 80 kt jet at 500h extends into southwest Missouri along
with the dry slot. The 850h jet is forecast to be along the
Mississippi River at that time. Several CAMS have a squall line
extending from near STL to POF at dawn.
The RAP rapidly advances the dry slot and associated dynamics to
near I-57 shortly after 15z. Other models hint at the same idea
with some differences in timing. Some models push the dry slot
through west Kentucky by 18z while others are slower. Ahead of the
dry slot MUCAPEs may reach over 1000 J/kg. SPC has most of the
area in a marginal risk tomorrow. The risk may be with this main
line of convection.
A few models hint at some development later in the afternoon over
southeast Missouri along the cold front itself. If this occurs
there still may be enough instability to produce a few stronger
storms.
As the dry slot reaches the area, Bufkit soundings suggest we mix
to about 850h. This may allow for a few wind gusts to reach wind
advisory criteria for a few hours from late morning into early
afternoon. Will wait for another round of models before going with
any advisories.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018
The main story in the long term period will be a return to chilly
temps next week. Little in the way of precipitation is expected. A
few rain or snow showers cannot be ruled out early next week. There
is a chance of some rain or snow toward the end of the week, but
most of the precip should occur beyond this forecast period.
As for Sunday, dry and mild southwest winds are expected ahead of a
cold front over northern Missouri. Highs will range from the mid 50s
to mid 60s. Although quite a bit of sunshine is forecast, gusty
winds will make it feel cooler.
The cold front will cross our region Sunday night, followed by
noticeably colder northwest winds. Highs will be in the 40s Monday,
then only in the 30s on Tuesday. The models continue to struggle
with the timing and location of small 500 mb impulses within the
broad trough over the central states. Several models indicate
splotches of light qpf over our area Monday through Tuesday. There
is not enough of a model signal to disrupt the dry forecast for
Monday and Monday night. Will add a slight chance of snow showers
for Tuesday in parts of our area, but basically nothing more than
flurries is anticipated.
Cold surface high pressure will build east across our region
Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing clearing skies and lighter
winds. Highs will again be only in the 30s, with lows in the 20s.
Thursday into Friday, moisture will begin to increase ahead of a
strong Pacific storm system coming onshore across northern Mexico.
At the same time, Arctic high pressure over the Plains is forecast
to drive a cold front southeast into the lower Ohio Valley. There is
a chance of snow showers Thursday night associated with the cold
front, although boundary layer temps will be marginal for snow. The
forecast for Friday will be mainly dry, following the gfs solution
of colder and drier air arriving behind the cold front. For the most
part, the 12z model suite keeps the surge of Pacific moisture just
to our south on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018
For the 00z Saturday WFO PAH TAF issuance, the TAF locations will
start out in IFR category with MVFR/VFR visibilities. As the
frontal boundary near the KT/TN border works northward, there will
be a gradual shift to MVFR ceilings over KPAH, KEVV, KOWB.
Visibilities may drop back to down to MVFR and briefly IFR
category as showers and storms continue to develop and work
northward through the area Saturday morning and afternoon. Once
the dry slot and moisture from the weather system moves east, VFR
conditions should return for the end of the forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith