Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/30/18
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level longwave pattern has a trough extending out of
Russia over the Bering Strait and then curving southeastward to
Southcentral Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska. The 250 mb jet
stream is running west-to-east just below the Aleutian Islands
and then splits with the main push heading southward under a
trough in the Pacific and then continuing eastward. The section
that splits northeastward is bringing a jet streak over the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula today which will amplify
some as it heads over southwest mainland Alaska Friday afternoon
and then weakens Saturday over Southcentral Alaska. This is a big
source for the warmer air moving into the area, but the big push
of warm air will remain south of Alaska.
At the surface there is an elongated low in the Bering Sea with
centers in the northwest Bering Sea. The front associated with
this low is moving into Southwest Mainland Alaska and then curves
over the Alaska Peninsula. A low is beginning to develop along
this front southwest of the Alaska Peninsula which will rapidly
deepen tonight as it moves northeastward. The impacts of this will
be talked about later in the discussion.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show a similar synoptic pattern but change
run-to-run on details such as how far northward the warm sector of
air reaches Friday and Saturday. Overall, the NAM and GFS look to
be giving good enough information to be used, but there are still
some challenges especially in forecasting precipitation type
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...With some partial clearing after the snowfall from the
past day, it looks increasingly likely that there will be stratus
and/or fog that will produce reduced ceilings and/or visibilities
tonight through tomorrow morning. The current state of the
atmosphere tilts a little more toward the stratus and less fog,
but reduced visibility is likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Saturday)
An interesting weather day is in store for the region as we head
into the Friday evening through Saturday morning timeframe. More
on that in a minute. Earlier we hoisted a dense fog advisory for
the Glenn Hwy from Chickaloon to near Glennallen, as area web cams
showed visibilities to near zero at times. With a transient ridge
building overhead, this will likely continue through early
afternoon tomorrow. As a side note, the afternoon sounding from
Anchorage showed multiple low-level inversions already developing,
but this can be seen even better on the King Salmon sounding.
Then the real fun part of the forecast begins Friday evening, with
the fun being will the models lock onto a solution in terms of the
finer details, such as how fast will surface temperatures warm and
thickness levels increase. As has been the case for the past
couple of days, the NAM appears to be too aggressive with the
warm advection at 850 mb. Meanwhile, the Canadian Regional, ARW,
and HRRR models are slower with the warming at this level, and
more so at the surface. This then leads to concerns for a period
of freezing rain developing, as 850 temps warm above zero while
the surface temps remain below freezing. The latter of the three
models all differ on how long of a period this potential is.
So in short, look for patchy fog overnight and during your morning
commute, then for snow to gradually change from snow, to freezing
rain, to rain for portions of Southcentral in the Friday evening
through Saturday morning timeframe, with all locations changing
back to snow Saturday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Thursday
night through Sunday)...
The first of two fronts is currently on the doorstep of the
Southwest coast with snow beginning to spread inland over the YK
Delta. Ahead of the front, southeasterly winds are increasing and
are expected to peak overnight as the front pushes inland.
Snowfall totals will be on the lighter side with this system due
to the quick movement of the front; however, blowing snow will be
a concern overnight from Dillingham to Bethel as the southerly
wind gusts in combination with the falling snow will reduce
visibilities to around one mile at times. Although warmer air is
advecting in aloft, temperatures are expected to stay cold enough
for precipitation north and east of Dillingham to fall primarily
as snow. Enough warmer air is expected to move in for areas around
Bristol Bay where a changeover to rain will take place by early
tomorrow morning.
A North Pacific low will then begin to track northward, lifting a
warm front across the region beginning midday Friday. With the
center of the low tracking to the west of the mainland and a
strong southerly flow ahead of it, this system will advect much
warmer air over the southwest mainland. Rain will continue along
the AKPEN and around Bristol Bay with snow quickly transitioning
to rain farther inland as the front lifts north and the moves into
the eastern Bering. Snowfall amounts will once again be light and
mainly confined to far interior location like Aniak and Sleetmute
as well as into portions of the Kuskokwim Delta where the colder
air will linger the longest. As the warmer air works north, there
will also be a narrow band of mixed precipitation as snow
transitions to rain. Most of it will be a rain/snow mix, though
there is a chance for a brief period freezing rain north of
Bethel toward Hooper Bay. By early morning Saturday, colder air
will begin to wrap around the northward tracking low changing any
lingering rain showers back to snow. This weather pattern then
repeats itself for late Saturday into Sunday as yet another
system moves toward the southwest mainland from the north
Pacific with another snow to rain precipitation event.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Thursday night through Sunday)...
Behind this front, zonal flow will develop over the western Bering
for the next couple of days as vertically stacked low east of
Kamchatka remains stationary. Intermittent small craft winds and
periods of rain/snow will develop within this zonal flow as
shortwaves eject from the parent low and transit over the
southern Bering. Conditions remain quite active over the eastern
Aleutians and Bering, however, as the first of two North Pacific
lows lift north into the eastern Bering. The first is a double-
barrel low and slides into the eastern Bering tomorrow. As this
system intensifies, widespread gales and areas of storm-force wind
will develop from the eastern Aleutians north to Cape Newenham.
The second low then lifts north Saturday with another round of
widespread rain and gales for the eastern half of the Bering and
Aleutians.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The forecast period commences with a longwave trough across the
Central Bering and portions of the North Pacific with a ridge
axis over the Yukon Territory and the Gulf Of Alaska. Between
these longwave features southwest flow aloft will dominate much of
the mainland. There are numerous shortwaves embedded in the upper
level trough. At the onset of the forecast period, the
Canadian/GFS and ECMWF have a surface low near Dutch Harbor,
another surface low west of St. Matthew Island and a dome of high
pressure east of SE AK. Even at the onset of the forecast period
the global models struggle with the placement of the surface low
although they have these features. As the forecast period
elapses, the model divergence becomes more amplified. Generally
speaking, expecting a progressive and unsettled pattern for the
Bering, the Aleutians and SW AK. However, due to the lack
consistency, this forecast package reflects a blend of models.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 155 165 172. Gales 132 138 150 160 170 173-176 180
181 414.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...PS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
948 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
No changes to dense fog headlines with this update. Surface
observations and area web cams still showing dense fog within the
advisory and good visibilities outside of the advisory. All other
weather elements mainly on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 727 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Will add McLean County to the Dense Fog Adv with fog spreading
slowly west across the county based on reports from the McLean
County SO.
UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Main update early this evening was to issue a dense fog advisory
across much of my central and north. Area web cams, surface
observations, and several real-time reports all indicate dense
fog developing across much of my north and central counties.
Updated the aerial coverage and magnitude of the fog using a blend
of the HRRR & RAP. Sky cover was also tweaked based on latest sat
imagery and high res guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Snow with the threat of freezing rain will affect the southwest half
of the state Friday night through Saturday night. See the long term
discussion below for these details.
Redevelopment of fog tonight is the main focus of the short term
period of the forecast.
Currently, a surface warm front extended from a low over
southwestern Saskatchewan...southeastward across the northeastern
corner of Montana and the northwestern corner of North Dakota...to
Watford City...near New Salem and east of Hettinger.
The warmer, drier air behind the warm front scoured out the stratus
clouds and fog earlier today as it moved east to its present
location. While the warm front aloft continues to move eastward
across the state, the surface front is forecast to stall or move
much slower eastward tonight. The latest high res models indicate
fog re-developing and the current stratus deck remaining and
expanding eastward...an even a tad westward...tonight. Whether the
fog will become dense (visibilities less than 1/2 mile) is more of a
matter of when/where rather than "if." Thus for now have mention of
areas of fog tonight for all but the southwest, where the warmer air
has already pushed in and where the models indicate it will maintain
its position.
Looking at lows in the 20s tonight across our area.
On Friday, we may see the stratus exiting to our east by late
morning, only to see stratus development/redevelopment from the
south as attention turns to the developing storm system setting up
over the central Plains. There is a chance of rain, snow, or
freezing rain southwest and south central by late afternoon. See the
long term portion for this scenario discussion. Looking for highs
Friday ranging from the upper 20s in the Turtle Mountains to the
upper 30s in the southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Chance of light snow and freezing rain Friday night through
Saturday night highlights the long term portion of the forecast.
An upper level low over California today (Thursday) will move east
across the southern Rockies and emerge in the Southern Plains Friday
afternoon, then intensify as it lifts northeastward into the Central
Plains Saturday, reaching the Great Lakes by Sunday morning. This
large storm system will bring widespread precipitation across much
of the southwestern and central US.
The bulk of the precipitation with this system should be to our
west, south, and east as the system progresses through the
weekend...but will affect mainly southwestern counties in North
Dakota.
The 12z runs of the models are developing a more pronounced inverted
trough extending from the central Plains low northwestward into
eastern Montana, clipping the southwestern portion of North Dakota.
This will favor more precipitation farther into southwestern North
Dakota than was forecast in the past couple of days. Forecast
soundings indicate plenty of low and mid level moisture moving
northward into the state, but also a warm layer aloft advecting in
along and north of the inverted trough. Then drier air aloft pushes
in from the northeast on Saturday with a continued saturated
boundary layer. This scenario will result in chances of both light
snow and freezing rain late Friday afternoon through Saturday night
for all of southwestern North Dakota...and reaching at times into
northwestern and south central parts of the state.
Snowfall and freezing rain implications Friday night through
Saturday night: The more likely scenario is for 1 to 4 inches of
snow to fall along and southwest of a line from north of Beach to
Dickinson to Fort Yates, with highest amounts near Bowman and
Hettinger. Areas along and south/west of the Missouri River will
also be under the threat for freezing rain mixing in at times with
the snow.
Mainly dry and cool for Sunday into next week. Canadian high
pressure pushes south into North Dakota Sunday and Monday, then
northwest flow aloft with a couple of fast-moving clipper systems
keeps off and on low chances of light snow in the forecast.
Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday...then cooler with
highs mainly in the teens and 20s and lows
Highs mainly in the 30s Friday, then a gradual cooling trend through
early next week, where high temperatures are forecast to be in the
teens and 20s, with lows in the single digits and teens above zero.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
VFR expected at KDIK through the 00Z TAF period.
IFR-VLIFR cigs/vis expected for KMOT/KJMS tonight with low
stratus and periods of dense fog remaining widespread across much
of northern and central ND. Some improvement later Friday morning
expected.
KISN will be on the edge of the stratus and may remain mainly VFR
through the period. Though occasionally dips and vis and/or cigs
will be possible overnight.
KBIS remain in dense fog and VLIFR cigs. Some improvement
overnight is suggested by models. KBIS will likely fluctuate
overnight from VLIFR to MVFR conditions as high res models keep
the western edge of the stratus right over the terminal.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for NDZ001>005-010>013-
021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
551 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
The primary concern through the period will be precip trends into
this evening, followed by fog overnight. An elongated short
wave/PV anomaly extends NW-SE just south of the MO River Valley
and will continue to push west through the early evening hours.
Much of the forcing is kinematic 3km and above with neutral lift
to even slight subsidence below. This has resulted in high
ceilings and soundings struggling to get much movement toward
saturation around 1km. Even so, light rain and/or freezing is in
progress and should continue into the early evening hours. Some
sleet may also mix in as the column begins to nudge toward wet
bulb temperatures aloft. The stronger H7/H5 QG forcing should be
into DVN`s area by 00z however so the precip intensity should
diminish some by that time. This is also reflected in the HRRR and
RAP simulated reflectivity which gradually fades over the next
several hours. Thus have mentioned a broad brush light
rain/freezing rain/sleet wintry mix into the early evening hours.
After the precipitation ends, weak upstream surface ridging will
settle into Iowa with winds becoming nearly calm. The 20z surface
analysis also noted higher surface dewpoints upstream just west of
the MO River and these are expected to ooze into Iowa along and
behind the ridge. This will produce conditions favorable for
widespread fog to develop to varied degrees. With temps below
freezing, there may be some freezing fog/frost development if
visibilities drop sufficiently. Any fog should dissipate Friday
morning but some cloudiness may linger through the day ahead of
the next system.
.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
The weekend storm system remains the primary challenge through
the forecast period. Upper level low pressure is now moving over
California this afternoon. This system will transition to an open
wave as it moves east into the intermountain west tonight before
closing off again as it moves to the lee side of the Rockies on
Monday. The system will then lift northeast into Kansas Friday
night and into Iowa on Saturday.
There are a plethora of forecast challenges with this system.
Initially, convective parameters are favorable for thunder
development Friday night into Saturday as the initial kinematic and
theta-e forcing arrive. Initially there will be a warm layer in place
as the precipitation arrives and full profile saturation occurs.
This may lead to a period of freezing rain across portions of the
area north of highway 30 before dynamic cooling occurs and switches
the precipitation to snow. Surface temperatures and wet bulb
temperatures at this time are still in flux as minor adjustments
will have large impacts on forecast precipitation types and amounts.
The cooler NAM12 and GFS FV3 solutions followed by a slightly warm
GFS deterministic then a warmer ECMWF. Given developing northeast
winds during this period with the sfc warm front well to the south,
current blended temperature solutions are likely overdone with
warmer MOS guidance influence. Given all of this, suspect a lean to
cooler solutions is more correct. The other issue is timing of the
arrival of the dry slot aloft and the loss of ice introduction.
Blended solutions for ProbIce are problematic and too low at times
trying to blend different temporal solutions and diluting results in
addition to likely ice introduction from underdone convective
elements.
Initial snowfall will occur with profiles nearly isothermal through
the 0C to -3C range to near 700 mb with strong forcing through this
layer. This will promote efficient aggregate dendritic growth that
will result in large sticky flakes which may occur over a 3-5 hr
period over portions of the northwest. This is similar to past
events that have caused power outages due to tree damage impacting
powerlines. Will continue to heighten the awareness of this in the
watch area. Gusty northeast winds over 30 mph across the
north/northwest will further enhance these concerns. Blowing snow
potential at least initially looks low considering the wet sticky
snow early. Some accumulations as colder air arrives with snow more
susceptible to blowing will occur later in the event.
The upper level system will shear out over the state Saturday night
with a fragment moving southeast and another segment to the
northeast. This will keep precipitation continuing overall and with
colder air gradually spilling further south. Precipitation forecast
during this period is difficult as there will likely be more intense
areas of precipitation near fragment pieces of forcing still passing
across central Iowa.
Overall, expect heavy snow to occur over the far northwest with a
mix of freezing rain/sleet/snow/rain occurring north of highway 30.
Enough icing and snow may occur from near Denison to Iowa Falls and
to Waverly to expand the watch for impacts. Still can not
discount a further expansion south if colder air is a bit farther
south. Over the south, rain and or thunderstorms early then
transitioning to drizzle during the day Saturday followed by a
transition to wintry weather Saturday night and Sunday. Ice intro
is lost again over the north by Sunday and could lead to more
freezing drizzle.
Generally quiet and cold following this system next week with little
to no precipitation forecast through Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 550 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Complicated package. Areas of light freezing precip and light rain
through 06z with fog likely overnight. Hires models hit most sites
hard with at least 1/2 to 2sm and some areas down to 1/4sm by 09z
through 13-15z. Signal has been around for several days as to
possible fog, but confidence in areal coverage not as great. Will
continue to monitor and make adjustments for 06z package. Aft
about 15-16z...visby improves but lower MVFR cigs may linger. /rev
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
RFC QPF ensemble hydrographs show significant within-bank rises
expected on many streams--especially smaller ones--across at least
the southern half of the CWA in conjunction with the seasonally
moderate to heavy rainfall from Friday night into Saturday. The only
instance of flooding indicated is borderline minor flooding along
the North Raccoon River near Perry. Flooding concerns are less than
previous forecasts, however, due to the expected more southern track
of the storm and the rather progressive nature of the heaviest
rainfall.
NOHRSC snow depth shows between 0.8 to 1.6 inches of liquid within
the snow pack over southern Iowa. The deeper snowpack as analyzed by
NOHRSC is across portions of Clarke, Union, Ringgold, Decatur,
Monroe, and Mahaska counties and correlates well with COOP observed
values of 7 inches at Osceola and Albia reported this morning. In
these areas, the rain will add to the existing snow-water
equivalent. Elsewhere, the snow pack may melt with the rain adding
additional water to nearby streams. Even where there is no snow pack
farther north over central portions of central Iowa, much of the
rain is expected to runoff with frost in the ground.
With the runoff, significant rises are expected on rivers and
streams with isolated minor flooding possible.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday morning
for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>037-044>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...Zogg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
540 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Weak short wave passing to the south leading to potential for very
light precipitation along highway 20 in Northwest Iowa through early
evening. Fortunately, temperatures have warmed above freezing there,
so moisture will have minimal impact.
Low lying stratus oozing south across the forecast area this
evening. Could lead to some areas of fog. Both NAM and HRRR have
fairly widespread fog across the area, so will need to keep an eye
on this through the overnight hours.
Any lingering fog will try to lift into stratus during the day on
Friday, but low lying clouds should impact warming through much of
the day. Have kept temps in the 30s for highs.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Focus this forecast is the upcoming winter storm Friday night
through the weekend. Models are in general agreement on the system,
but there are still details that are fuzzy. One thing that has been
consistent with this system is the amount of moisture that is
available. With the gulf wide open ahead of this system,
precipitable water values climb to nearly 3/4" in the upper Midwest,
which exceeds the 90th percentile for this time of year. With the
12Z runs, still some discrepancy on the precise track of the system.
GFS is offering the furthest north solution, and the Canadian is the
furthest south. For this iteration, sided closer to the ECMWF and
NAM. On the large scale, models suggest large broad scale lift
developing within low level warm air advection lifting north into
the area. Not a lot of frontogenetic forcing to latch onto with
this system, suggesting a prolonged snow event. EPV* is weakly
stable in the early part of this system, and becomes increasingly
stable throughout the day on Saturday. Models suggest that jet
dynamics increase the lifting potential over the forecast area
throughout the day on Saturday, gradually decreasing Saturday night
into Sunday. Have concentrated highest pops south of highway 34,
where the isentropic lift resides throughout the day on Saturday.
Precip type appears to be difficult with this system, especially
through mid day Saturday as cold air starts to collapse south. The
NAM indicates a warm nose of air feeding into northwest Iowa and
continuing into southeast South Dakota Friday night into Saturday
morning. This overlaps the increasing lift, potentially leading to
an area of sleet/freezing rain on the northern edge of the
developing precipitation. Have raised icing potential in an arc
extending from near Spencer Iowa to Mitchell South Dakota, with
around a tenth of an inch of ice possible. As the colder air shifts
south on Saturday, expect precipitation to change over to snow.
Moderate snow should continue well into the evening, possibly into
Sunday before it gradually comes to an end. Winds will also be
breezy on Saturday with 20-35 mph north-northeast winds through much
of the event.
Models still seem to be a bit uncertain on how quickly this system
will shift to the east, but in general seem to hint that system will
linger at least through Saturday night if not into Sunday. Have
raised pops through mid day Sunday, and extended headlines through
00Z Monday with strong winds continuing through the day Sunday.
In regards to headlines, have upgraded to a winter storm warning
across south central South Dakota. Further to the north and east,
uncertainty remains with precip types and amounts so have left the
watch going. Models also suggest a sharp gradient on the north edge
of this system, but where that sets up is unclear. If we do see near
a tenth of an inch of ice along with the winds, am concerned about
impacts to power system and trees in the area.
Weather quiets down next week, but temperatures cool remaining well
below freezing through the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Hedged toward a pessimistic forecast through much of this TAF
period, as low stratus likely to lower even further beneath
strengthening inversion. This expected to result in IFR-LIFR
visibility in fog in many areas by late evening through the
overnight hours into Friday morning. Subtle improvement to MVFR
conditions possible by midday Friday, but watch for deteriorating
conditions again after the end of this TAF period.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
SDZ050-063>065-068-069.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for SDZ052>062-066-067-070-071.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for MNZ089-090-097-098.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning
for MNZ071-072-080-081.
IA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon
for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SG/BT
LONG TERM...SG/BT
AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
921 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Rapidly falling temperatures and light southeasterly winds have
allowed dense fog to develop in spots the past couple of hours.
As this fog is becoming more widespread...opted to issue a dense
fog advisory through 9 AM CST for much of south central Nebraska
based on latest model guidance...but will keep an eye on things as
it may need to be expanded further south and potentially into
portions of north central Kansas later tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Aloft: RAP model analyses of the tropopause...12Z upr-air data
and GOES-16 WV imagery showed zonal flow over the CONUS. A weak
shortwave trof was crossing Neb/KS and was responsible for the
clds and the -RA along and N of I-80. By far the feature of
greatest interest was the low over Nrn CA. This low will weaken
tonight- tomorrow as its remnants lifts into the Nrn Rckys.
Meanwhile...the remaining trof will dig over the Desert SW tonight
and become negatively tilted tomorrow as it swings into W TX. As
all this occurs...the weak trof currently over Neb/KS will move E
of the rgn with a shortwave ridge moving in tonight. Winds will
back from WSW- SSW as the trof approaches tomorrow.
Surface: The CWA was in a non-descript pres pattern...between a
very wk low pres sys over the Nrn Plns...and the prvs cool front
that moved thru which was stationary from CO-OK-AR. A couple lows
were already along that front. Weak high pres will gradually
evolve over the Midwest thru tomorrow as the Nrn Plns sys conts to
move E. Meanwhile...cyclogenesis will ensue over the OK panhandle
tomorrow. Model consensus has the low around 994 mb.
This afternoon: -RA has been persistent over the Nrn 1/3 of the
CWA. Mesonet sites show than up to 0.11" has fallen. Clds are
rapidly moving E and the mdls are not handling this well. So made
some manual changes to better reflect this.
Tonight: Clearing will cont...but it will be temporary. Dwpts
range from 37-42F and conds will be ideal for rapid cooling this
eve...lgt winds and clearing skies. The fact that clds exist
around 2K ft at at MCK/LBF/BBW also foreshadow fog potential. So
expect fog to form...and it will probably form much earlier than
usual.
There is a lot of uncertainty on how much low stratus develops or
if it evolves from the fog. Regardless...multi-model RH cross
sections show mid-high clds will overspread the CWA from W-E after
midnight. So it will become cldy one way or the other.
Used warmer guidance for lows which raised them abv the prvs fcst
(30-35F).
Friday: Cldy/foggy. Low-lvl mstr could become deep enough for
some drzl to develop after midday. Incrsg lift will result in the
development of areas of light rain over KS that will lift N into
the CWA during the afternoon. The thick cld cover will suppress
the temp curve with highs only in the mid-upr 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Aloft: A low will form over KS within the neg tilt trof Fri
night. Sat into Sat night the mdls are tightly-clustered
indicating the low will lift into IA and slow or temporarily stall
as the sys occludes. It will weaken Sun with its remnants moving
into the GtLks. However...a shear zone will linger over Neb/KS as
closed high forms over the Nrn Plns. This system will initiate
amplification...carving out a longwave trof over the Wrn/Cntrl
USA. While the 1st sys is moving thru...another low will move in
from the Pac Fri night. It is fcst to dive thru the Desert SW and
move thru KS Mon into Mon night. Meanwhile...split flow will
develop over the E Pac with a high-over-low (-EPO) pattern. The
Nrn stream will deliver an Arctic air mass that will result in
very cold wx next wk.
Surface: The deep low near EHA will move to near TUL by 12Z/Sat
and then occlude as it lifts into SW IA by 00Z/Sun near 988 mb.
The CWA will remain the cold sector of this low thru Sun with
Canadian high pres beginning to build in. This high will expand S
thru the Plns Mon-Tue. An Arctic cold front is fcst to drop into
the Nrn Plns Tue. The tail end of this front should move thru here
Wed AM.
Precip: rain will cont to develop and blossom over the entire CWA
Fri eve as deep ascent occurs and the commahead precip shield
evolves. As colder air begins wrapping in after 06Z...the low-
level temp profile will cool enough to allow a chgovr to snow W of
Hwy 281. The rest of the rain will chg to snow Sat AM. The
accumulating snow Sat will fall mostly along and N of Hwy 6. S of
Hwy 6 temps should be marginal enough to remain rain/drzl or a
rain/snow mix...espcly over Neb. There will probably be periods
where no precip is falling.
Any remaining rain will chg to snow Sat night...with periods of
light snow lingering into Sun and possibly even Mon.
The biggest uncertainty in this fcst is the potential for icing
from frzg rain or more likely frzg drzl. This may be overplayed in
the fcst...but the banded nature of the precip in the commahead
will result in transient cld bands where the DGZ is saturated and
snow falls. Where the DGZ becomes unsaturated though...frzg drzl
could occur.
Mdls: the 12Z GEM and 06Z/12Z GFS are tightly clustered with the
00Z/12Z EC 700 mb low over SE Neb/NE KS at 18Z/Sat. The 12Z/18Z
NAM are outliers further W. So the NAM brings the dryslot into the
CWA. That scenario would result in more of a frzg drzl scenario.
We collaborated with WPC and adjacent offices on conf call at
1815Z. Warning/Advisory issued in conjunction with LBF/OAX.
Snow: This is not set in stone...but as of now this is how we see
it. (These totals are from late Fri night thru Sun eve). Please
allow us wiggle room for adjustments.
1-3" from KS Hwy 36 up to Hwy 6
2-5" Hwy 6 to I-80
4-9" I-80 up to Ord/Greeley/Fullerton with the highest amts N
Most of this accum will occur during the day Sat...but 1-3" of
those amts will fall Sat night thru Sun.
Keep in mind these amts are based on model averages. There will
be narrow bands within the larger commahead precip shield that
will result in more snow in some areas...and less in others.
This is expected to be a long drawn-out event. Road crews should
anticipate nuisance lighter snow continuing Sun into Sun night.
Blowing/drifting will work against keeping roads clear. Winds
diminish Sun night.
Winds: not expected to be excessive. 15-25 mph with G30-35. That
will result in blwg/drifting snow.
Big travel delays expected espcly N of Hwy 6 and this includes
I-80. Some county roads N of the Tri-Cities could become
impassable. Prepare for cancellation of activities.
Temps: Below normal Sat...then much below normal Sun-Thu as a
5-day stretch with highs below frzg ensues over S-cntrl Neb...
where snow is laid down from this sys.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 550 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Deteriorating conditions are expected at both terminals this
evening as temperatures rapidly drop...reaching dewpoints...and
widespread fog develops. Was pretty pessimistic with fog
overnight...with 1/2SM (or lower) expected at both sites. In
addition to LIFR VSBYS...expect LIFR CIGS to develop as
well...with those CIGS likely lingering into the daytime hours
Friday as VSBYS gradually improve during the mid-morning hours. At
the same time...expect an approaching disturbance to help
generate some drizzle by midday...transitioning to more of a
steady light rain towards the tail end...or just beyond...the
scope of the current TAF period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
NEZ060-064-072>077.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for
NEZ039>041-046>049-061>063.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rossi
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
909 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Several subtle, but important changes made to the evening and
overnight forecast.
Main adjustment this evening was to incorporate SPC probabilities
for general thunderstorms overnight. Nearly all of the
instability (as depicted through the RAP model initialization) is
above the surface to 1 km layer, so any updrafts will be rooted
above the boundary layer. Instability via the RAP ranges from
400-600 j/kg with little convective inhibition. KPAH is showing
unidirectional southwest flow of 40-50 knots above 2kft msl, with
some veering at the lowest levels. Moisture transport/advection
continues to be good this evening, so do not anticipate any lack
of a decent moisture gradient ahead of a weak mid-level trough.
Although the SPC probabilities for general thunder are 30% or less
across the southern and southeast parts of the WFO PAH CWA this
evening, cannot rule out a lower probability of thunderstorms. Do
no anticipate any strong or severe storms at all overnight.
Some evidence of weak updrafts were evident in the cellular
character of the developing showers this evening in the warm
sector south of the frontal boundary poised on the northwest side
of the WFO PAH forecast area.
Most of the high resolution and medium range guidance continued to
under estimate temperatures and dewpoints this evening by 1-2
degrees. The best initialization this evening actually came from
the 12z Thursday Canadian model guidance and it was incorporated
into the overnight temperature, dewpoint, and relative humidity
calulations.
Little, if any adjustments were made beyond 15z (9 am CST) on
Friday to the current forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
Well the low overcast conditions have overspread the entire area
today, and the modest south winds have forced a weak frontal
boundary just north/northwest of our region. We have not had much
if any drizzle or shower activity through the day, but KPAH is
just now showing some drizzly weak echoes just southwest of the
radar.
12Z NAM and GFS soundings indicate that the boundary layer will
deepen enough this evening to create a shallow layer of
instability beneath the mid-level inversion. This should result in
scattered light shower activity throughout the area this evening.
As a weak mid/upper-level disturbance moves eastward
toward/through the area, the surface boundary will shift southeast
through much of our region overnight, which will push the shower
activity southeast to west Kentucky by 12Z Friday. Our likely PoPs
may be a bit much for the shower activity alone, but drizzle will
also be possible.
Much of the area will be dry on Friday, depending on how far
southeast the boundary makes it. There is some possibility that it
will clear the entire region in the morning. We will maintain
chance PoPs in the far southeast through the day to account for
any lingering shower activity.
The 12Z model consensus seems to have sped up the northward
movement of the warm front Friday night, but the strongest surge
of moisture and instability will still be from Arkansas into
Missouri. Cannot disagree with the Marginal Risk for severe in our
far southwest Friday night. Instability is still pretty meager
which may make surface-based storms difficult to get. However, the
wind field, especially in the lowest 3km is quite strong, so we
will have to continue to monitor the situation for some stronger
wind gusts and even tornadoes near the warm front. QPF has ticked
up a bit, but is still in the 1-2" range Friday night through
Saturday.
The warm advection convection/precipitation is now expected to
linger past 12Z over most of the region, and may linger into the
afternoon over southwest Indiana and east of the Lakes. The severe
threat will be minimal Saturday morning, as the convection may
still be elevated. Once the dry slot arrives there may be enough
low-level moisture and heating to break the cap along and ahead
of the cold front through the afternoon. If storms can get going
in the warm sector Saturday afternoon, a few may become severe
with large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes possible. This
may be our best severe threat, but there are a lot of things that
have to come together just right, so confidence is not great at
this time. South winds will be quite strong on Saturday with or
without storms. Some gusts over 30 mph will be possible, so will
continue to mention in the HWO. Saturday night should be dry
throughout the region.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
The weather pattern will return to the chilly pattern that has
dominated most of November, characterized by anomalously low 500 mb
heights across much of the US. Although the models agree on the
large scale pattern, there are lots of inconsistencies regarding the
shortwave details. These details will play a role in the timing of
clouds and small precipitation chances early in the week.
As for Sunday, there is good model agreement that residual troughing
from Saturday`s system will extend southwest into the mid Missouri
Valley. A dry southwest flow ahead of this trough will keep temps
fairly mild, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. The trough will
swing southeast across our region Sunday night, starting a downward
trend in temps.
Model agreement fades quickly Monday through Tuesday due to a
complicated split flow pattern at 500 mb. The past couple model
cycles have increasingly suppressed the southern branch of the jet,
so that our weather will be dominated by a series of shortwaves
coming southeast in the northern branch. This trend will be
reflected in somewhat colder forecast temps, with highs mainly in
the 30s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Some patchy light rain or snow
is still expected. Will keep small pops in the forecast for Monday
and Monday night, but even on Tuesday some light snow cannot be
ruled out, per the 12z ecmwf.
Cold high pressure will cross our region mid-week. On Thursday, the
high will move to our east, allowing temps to moderate slowly. A
strong southern stream Pacific storm system will come onshore,
preceded by 500 mb ridging over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Nov 29 2018
For the 00z Friday WFO PAH TAF issuance, IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR
visibilities will be the rule as the moist boundary layer is
lifted and produces light rain showers or drizzle through the
evening. By late evening, especially for KCGI and KPAH, the warm
frontal boundary will be further north enough to produce upper
MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
As the frontal boundary begins to sag back southward again between
06z-12z Friday, winds will veer around to the northwest, allowing
ceilings to drop back into IFR category for the remainder of the
forecast period.
Conditions will definitely not be favorable for VFR rated
aviation during this forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
338 PM MST Thu Nov 29 2018
.UPDATE...
Updated 18Z aviation discussion
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is still expected to move across the region Thursday
night into early Friday. The best chance for rainfall in the
Phoenix metro area should occur Thursday evening into Thursday
night. Expect a few lingering showers Friday mainly east of
Phoenix. A much cooler and unsettled pattern will prevail this
weekend and early next week, with temperatures Sunday into Monday
nearly ten degrees below seasonal normals.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The forecast remains on track with regards to the approaching
Pacific low pressure system moving eastward across southern CA.
At this hour, light showers are now beginning to break out across
SE CA, but the dry subcloud layer is keeping most, or all
rainfall from reaching the ground. Latest HRRR high-res model
output pushing the sfc cold front and its associated line of
showers into extreme western AZ by early evening, then across
south-central AZ during the late evening/overnight hours. Latest
consensus guidance is showing most areas getting at least some
rain, but the rapid movement of the system keeping lower desert
QPF`s down in the 0.05-0.20 inch range. Higher amounts can be
expected over the higher terrain north and east of Phoenix,
perhaps as high as 0.50 inch. The other impact from this system
still is expected to be the winds, with localized gusts as high as
55 mph possible in extreme SW Imperial County and Joshua Tree NP.
Some blowing dust is also possible across SE CA and SW AZ, but
widespread low visibilities are not anticipated at this time.
Given the fact that fcst sounding are showing few hundred joules
of MLCAPE, slight chances for TS have also been added to the
grids. Mountain snow will be limited to the highest peaks in Gila
County. Showers should subside for most locations by Friday
afternoon, although there will be enough lingering moisture to
support some additional showers for Central Arizona, especially
Gila County.
For this weekend, another Pacific system passing well to our
north will broaden the general troughing across the West. There
will be some perturbations in the general flow aloft that could
support additional showers. Precipitation chances peak again late
Saturday and Sunday, primarily for locations from Phoenix
eastward, but again, any accumulation looks skimpy.
The most noticeable change to our weather from these two systems
will prolonged cooler weather. The warmer desert locations will see
highs in the low to mid 60`s beginning Friday complemented with
much cooler overnight low temperatures. The coldest times are
likely to be Monday and Tuesday mornings, particularly for Globe,
where the low temperatures will drop at least a few degrees below
freezing. Most other warmer locations will experience lows
between 35 and 40 degrees at those times.
Folks will see a gradual warmup in temperatures and quiet weather
through the first part of the workweek. However, both the GFS and
ECMWF deterministic models are becoming more bullish on another
moist system similar to what we are seeing today moving through
the area. If this holds, we could see additional rain/snow and
prolonged cooler temperatures.
&&
AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
A strong Pacific low and associated cold front will impact the
Phoenix TAF sites beginning early this evening and continuing
overnight with the primary impacts being gusty winds, showers,
and decreasing ceilings. Light easterly winds will veer to the
south around 20Z and southwest at 10 knots around 21-22Z, Winds
will gradually increase ahead of the front which has slowed a bit
and is expected to arrive between 03-06Z. Winds will be sustained
at 15-20 knots with gusts in excess of 25 knots. Light to
moderate rain showers are expected for a few hours around 06Z
along and just behind the front, with winds decreasing below 15
knots around 09Z. An embedded thunderstorm may be possible with
elevated instability aloft, but confidence is too low to include
this in the TAF. Ceilings behind the front should also decrease
below 5 kft, with MVFR ceilings possible after sunrise tomorrow.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
A strong Pacific low and associated cold front will significantly
impact southeast California this afternoon and evening with the
primary impacts being gusty winds, blowing dust, and isolated
showers. Southerly 10 knot winds will rapidly veer to the west-
southwest with the frontal passage around 21Z, causing sustained
winds above 20 knots and gusts in excess of 30 knots. Blowing dust
will be possible this afternoon and early evening, so we have
included a TEMPO group for reduced visibilities between 21-01Z at
KBLH and 22-02Z at KIPL. Isolated light showers will be possible
behind the front into the early overnight hours, with wind gusts
decreasing below 25 knots by 09Z. If winds weaken and potentially
decouple tomorrow morning, 20-30 knot wind shear in the lowest 2
kft will be possible, but confidence is too low to include this in
the TAF at this time as winds currently look to remain elevated.
Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:
Unsettled conditions will remain in place this weekend as a second
weather system moves southeastward across the state. This will keep
rain chances in the forecast for mainly high terrain areas each day
with precipitation chances ending by early Monday. Breezy westerly
winds are likely to be seen on Saturday before diminishing into
Sunday. Fortunately, RH values will be above any concerning
thresholds. Temperatures will be well below normals through the
period with a bit of a warming trend late as higher pressure builds
into the area from the west.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM PST Friday for CAZ560-562.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Percha/Deemer
AVIATION...Hopper
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/CB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1018 PM EST Thu Nov 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level weather disturbance and approaching warm front
brings a return of rain chances tonight and Friday. Rain with
another system this weekend. A couple cold fronts next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1005 PM Thursday...
Latest Radar trends indicating that rainfall is starting to
develop and enter SW Virginia. However, 00Z NAM and the last
several HRRR runs and other HI-RES guidance is showing that the
rainfall will be more widespread over the southern and eastern
CWA overnight into Friday morning as shortwave pushes through
from west to east across southern West Virginia. Have lowered
PoP to just a chance in the north and increased values across
the Southern CWA.
As of 545 PM Thursday...
Lowered PoP over the next few hours as precip is taking a bit
longer to come in than originally forecast. Did keep in the
mention of a few sprinkles, as surface dew points remain in the
20s and likely the returns currently on Radar are not as intense
at the surface than what the Radar is indicating due to this dry
air in the low levels. Other than that, the forecast remains on
track. Also should note that temperatures continue to rise with
WAA, so when precip does eventually move into the area, it
should fall as rain.
As of 115 PM Thursday...
Flurries/sprinkles have been observed at times today across the
CWA due to isentropic lift. Otherwise, clouds are slowly
increasing across the CWA, out ahead of an approaching warm
front, and weak surface low, that will move into the area later
tonight. Rain, will overspread the area late tonight, but should
remain generally light, due to a lack of significant dynamics
and moisture. In addition, temperatures over night should hold
rather steady, and possibly rise a few degrees towards morning,
and am expecting precipitation to be in the form of rain CWA
wide late tonight. There could be a very brief period of
freezing rain across the northern mountains, but overall,
thinking if it does occur, coverage and duration will not be
enough to cause issues. Surface low and front will drift east on
Friday, with somewhat drier weather taking hold across the
north. However, area will remain socked in with low clouds the
entire day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday...
The short term period is defined by a strong cyclone set to sail from
the central Plains up through the Midwest into the Great Lakes
region, leaving this area on the warm and wet side of things
with continued warming through the period.
Coupling between two 120+ kt jets, one accompanying the upstream
side of a trough digging negatively into the Plains and another
draped WNW to ESE across the Great Lakes/Northeast, offers robust
upper level support for further development along a remnant frontal
boundary positioned roughly along the Ohio River at the start of the
period Friday night. Strong surface cyclogenesis accompanying
the Plains jet/trough combined with strong divergence aloft in
the northern Ohio Valley (due to the jet coupling) promotes
strong southerly low- to mid-level flow across the South. This
50-70 kt southerly jet surges moisture into the region and
overrides the surface warm front, producing widespread
stratiform rain - well evident in isentropic analysis. At this
time, the axis of greatest PoP, roughly mirroring the warm
frontal band of rain, moves up from the SSW to the N starting
early Saturday morning through the early afternoon.
Best moisture convergence appears to be over the lower Ohio Valley
up into northern IL/IN/OH, closer to the parent surface low, based
on latest model guidance. But, PWAT still surges to 1.2-1.4" across
our area, which is about as high as it has ever been based on
ILN and RNK sounding climatology, during this time of year. So,
while at this time the best chances for flooding rains appear
just a bit outside of the area, the atmosphere will be juicy
with plenty of potential for rain to become heavy at times,
perhaps enough for some localized water issues, especially with
saturated soils in place as has been noted in the previous
discussion. Have remained with the same area in the HWO to
highlight the flood threat, mainly along and West of the Ohio
River. Currently forecasting roughly 0.5-1" widespread rainfall
amounts saturday with highest amounts across SE Ohio and lowest
near and East of the I79 corridor. Relying on hi-res models, a
sharp decline in available moisture with the introduction of a
dry slot aloft cuts heavy stratiform rain potential from W to E
Saturday evening.
Regarding severe weather potential, there is low probability for
convection at all based on weak lapse rates and a warm nose in
the mid-levels. Strong low- level flow and bulk shear as high
at 90kts support long-lived, gusty showers at the least,
though, particularly as a weak surface front passes through
Saturday night. In spite of the weak overnight front, warm
advection resumes Sunday with temperatures reaching the mid-60`s
in the lowlands, with some guidance suggesting numbers near 70.
But, lingering low-level clouds Sunday may stunt temperatures
some, particularly in WV and near the WV mountains where clouds
will hang on longest.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...
The upper level pattern begins to change Monday as the eastern
flank of a longwave trough inches closer into Central
Appalachia Monday with several disturbances aloft drifting in
behind the trough for the next few days. Winds shift out of a
more northwesterly direction for the extent of the long-term,
welcoming in colder air beginning Monday afternoon. Moisture
associated with the upper level disturbances and their
accompanying surface cold fronts will move in by the start of
the period and hold steady through mid week. Discrepancies still
remain amongst the models this far out in terms of the
orientation of coverage, but colder air behind the front does
suggest a change over to snow Monday evening in the mountains,
as well as in the Lowlands by Tuesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...
A warm front pushes towards the region tonight with light rain
expected. Conditions will also deteriorate through the night
from MVFR to IFR as ceiling and visibility drop. Light rain
and/or drizzle may persist through the day tomorrow with IFR
conditions likely through the day.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Precipitation timing and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 11/30/18
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H M L H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H L H M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL/MC/MEK
NEAR TERM...MPK/SL
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MPK