Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/25/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
843 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
Weather is evolving near expectations. Secondary cold front is
racing toward Denver at this hour. Intense snow band moved through
Cheyenne but is being eroded by the low level downslope winds
coming off the Cheyenne Ridge. This will limit snowfall in the
downslope areas, but we still expect a few hours of snow on the
upslope regions going back uphill south of I-76. This would bring
some snow showers to the Denver area between 9 pm and midnight.
We don`t expect sustained intensity, but there could be an
impressive burst at the start for a half hour or so. Given the
apparent intensity of the lift, PoPs and snowfall amounts were
both raised just a bit for the couple hours as this band passes
during the middle of the night. This produces a band of 2-4 inches
of snow in the area we issued the winter weather advisory. Only
question is if a blizzard warning would be warranted--at this
point we still think the answer is no, but there could be some
localized near blizzard conditions for a short time somewhere.
This would be most likely in Sedgwick and Phillips counties during
the early morning hours.
High winds will probably only be there for a couple of hours as
well with the frontal surge, then a gradual decrease overnight, so
the 2 am expiration time should be good. Mountain snow also on
track, generally light but with a little surge as the band of lift
goes by.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
Heavy snow moved through through the I-70 mountain corridor this
afternoon, resulting in road closures on I-70 in Summit County.
Meanwhile, a few rain and snow showers also spreading across the
plains. Also, there was a push of stronger winds with the cold
front with gusts to around 50 mph.
The band of heavier precipitation will continue to push south with
the front and exit our forecast area late this afternoon.
Meanwhile, lighter snow continues in the mountains with sufficient
orographics but thinner moisture profiles. The main concern for
us exists with the evolution of the upper low, now dropping
south/southeast through Wyoming. The RAP Q-G analysis is showing
the strongest height fall tendency right over the Denver area so
a south/southeast track is expected through the evening. As a
result, the deformation zone of the upper low will also sink this
way. We basically expect a lull in precipitation through early
evening as moisture decreases, and then an uptick with stronger
northerly flow developing as this deformation/moisture zone drops
south/southeast. The strong northerly flow and farther south
solution will favor orographic enhancement over the Palmer Divide
and points east and northeast toward Limon, Akron, and Holyoke.
Due to the combination of strong winds and more snow for this
area, we`ll add a Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing
snow and a 1 to 3 inch forecast. We`ll have to watch accumulations
carefully because much more than 2 or 3 inches will produce more
significant impacts due to the strength of winds. Even the eastern
side of Denver should see some snow with this second batch, so
have increased the PoPs with a dusting to 1" of snow expected at
this time. It should be noted that very small changes to the storm
track and orographic component could make for a significant
difference in areas that see no snow or accumulating snow across
the plains and Palmer Divide.
With regard to winds, we expect another blast of high winds with
gusts to 50-65 mph starting along the Front Range early to mid
evening, and then spreading east and southeast across the plains.
That occurs as the upper level trough axis drops across us,
resulting in a very strong pressure gradient as strong height
rises occur behind this system. Winds should slowly decrease
overnight with lighter winds prevailing in all but the eastern
plains and mountain tops by morning.
On Sunday, much better travel conditions can be expected. Snow
covered roads and lingering light snow showers in the mountains
early in the morning will give way to some sunshine and warming
by late morning and afternoon, allowing road conditions to
improve. The plains will also see lighter winds, although still
gusting to 30-35 mph over the eastern sections.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
A less active pattern will dominate Colorado weather for much of
the coming week. Strong subsidence will continue over the state
Sunday night and Monday as an upper level ridge builds over
California and the Pacific Northwest. Dry northwesterly flow aloft
will cover north central and northeast Colorado. Temperatures will
also moderate through the period, reaching above normal for the
end of November from Tuesday through Friday. Mountain areas may
see some gusty winds at times due to the moderate northwesterly
flow aloft. Medium range model solutions are fairly similar
through mid-week as the upper ridge flattens and flow aloft over
the state becomes either westerly or west-northwesterly. Moisture
is expected to begin moving back into the state on Thursday or
Friday with the ECMWF and GFS models offering different solutions
on the amplitude of the upper trough that is bringing the moisture
to the state. Mountain areas will certainly see a return of
snowfall for the end of the week, but it is too early to tell how
the weather on the plains will evolve, based on the timing and
amplitude of the weather system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 843 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
A cold front will bring strong north winds and scattered snow
showers to the Denver area between 04z and 06z. Winds will gust as
high as 50 knots and there could be a quick snow shower with
accumulation of up to an inch in an hour. After 06z, winds will be
diminishing and the threat of accumulating snow will be much
lower. Instrument approaches to KDEN should be expected between
04z and about 10z. VFR conditions are expected after that, with
winds below 15 knots after 12z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Sunday for COZ038>051.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ030-032-041-
046-049>051.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
730 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
...Potentially damaging high winds tonight into Sunday morning...
...Blizzard conditions expected northern counties after
midnight...
We have decided to add another row of counties southward to
include in the winter weather advisory for snow/blowing snow. This
basically includes the US 50 corridor from Syracuse to Garden City
to Dodge City. Updated all grids through 6 am Sunday, using the
latest HRRR as a guide. HRRR iterations have been trending
steadily southward. For instance, the main surface low was
forecasted by 12z ECMWF to be near Syracuse at 6 pm/00z. In
reality, it was near Elkhart in Morton county. This two county
disparity will have implications on how far south snow and blowing
snow will evolve tonight. Thus, the additional counties in the
advisory. Kept snow amounts modest, near 1 inch along US 50, and
2-3 inches along I-70. But what snow we do get will come down
intensely for a short period as the strong deformation band pivots
through. Much more importantly, NW winds will be gusting 50-60 mph
as the snow falls, resulting in several hours of white out
conditions. Continue to feel most confident near blizzard
conditions will evolve after midnight along/north of K-96. Periods
of snow/blowing snow will likely make it as far south now as US 50
and Garden/Dodge. Travel will become difficult, particularly
north/NE of Dodge City, after midnight. All of this is already a
memory by sunrise, with snow wrapping up across the eastern
counties by 6-8 am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
Warm, downslope flow this afternoon has aided in mild
temperatures. Big changes are coming beginning tonight with very
strong wind and possible blizzard conditions tomorrow morning toward
our northern zones. We`ll start with wind concerns first since
models have been consistent in showing this system as a high wind
event.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a powerful shortwave
over Wyoming, which will quickly move into western Kansas by
Sunday morning. An attendant surface low in eastern Colorado has
been deepening and edging toward Western Kansas this afternoon.
This low will bring a strong cold front through the the forecast
area tonight. A tight MSLP gradient of rising pressure and
a pressure change couplet signaling an isallobaric response
behind the front will aid in the wind becoming very strong, with
gusts up to 60mph beginning tonight through tomorrow morning.
Strongest wind gusts will occur tonight between roughly 7 pm and
midnight, and then again behind the main low itself with strong
pressure rises from 4 am through 9am. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for areas roughly west of highway 283, but may need to
eventually be expanded east. While temperatures overnight will
drop into the upper 20s/lower 30s, the wind chill tomorrow
morning will drop into the teens.
What further complicates matters is the potential for rain/snow
this evening. Southwest Kansas will be on the outer fringes of
the heaviest snowfall during this event, with much higher totals
in northeastern Kansas. Regardless, the GFS, ECMWF and high
resolution models have been edging slightly more QPF into
Southwestern Kansas. Rain will begin to fall tonight after roughly
9pm. How much snow will occur will depend on how quick the cold
air advection rushes in and changes over the rain to snow. Have
favored the HRRR and ARW colder solutions for the morning.
Forecast soundings shows a lack of a warm nose, so the transition
from rain to snow should be quick. While a midlevel jet will
increase snow growth in the dendritic zone, the strong wind and
quickly moving system should keep snow ratios at bay. Therefore
have went with 1-3 inches of snow near the I-70 corridor.
Unfortunately, the strongest winds and heaviest snow will occur at
the same time, which will bring possible blowing snow and
blizzard conditions to that area Sunday morning. At this time,
have issued a Blizzard Warning for Ellis and Trego counties, and a
winter weather advisory for counties just to the south. For now,
areas as far south as Dodge and Garden City may see a dusting.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
Snow will come to an end by early Sunday afternoon. Wind will
finally calm down by nightfall as high pressure sets in.
Temperatures overnight will drop into the 20s.
Southwest Kansas looks to remain dry through the week.
Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the upper 40s to
50s. The ECMWF and GFS brings the next possible storm system
through the region next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 445 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
VFR conditions should prevail throughout the entire TAF period for
all locations. Currently, breezy south winds in the 12-15kt range
ahead of a fast approaching cold front pushing in from Colorado.
Winds will turn and gust initially up to 35kts after 02-03Z and
into the 45-50kt range after 03-04Z out of the northwest. These
winds will continue through 17-18Z before subsiding to 35kts and
diminishing to less than 12kts towards sunset Sunday as night
time cooling starts to occur and the pressure gradient relaxes in
wake of the aforementioned cold frontal passage.
Precipitation wise, HYS will see rain after 05Z before turning to
snow after 09Z with all other locations not seeing any fall on
station. However, uncertainty in the track southward, DDC and GCK
could see light snow flurries in the 10-12Z time frame depending
on how far south the track of the low occurs. Amendments may be
needed as the event pushes closer over night or will show up in
the new TAF cycle at 06Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 39 22 50 / 60 20 0 0
GCK 27 40 21 49 / 60 10 0 0
EHA 29 43 24 51 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 30 43 21 51 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 27 32 19 43 / 90 80 0 0
P28 35 40 23 51 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Sunday for
KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ043>046-061>065-077>079.
Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
KSZ030-031.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Lowe
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
810 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 810 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
Winds have become light or very calm in many locations in northern
Alabama. With only very thin high cloudiness near and just to the
south of Morgan county, this has setup efficient radiational cooling
which should continue for the next few hours and possibly until just
after midnight. As a result, temperatures have quickly fallen down
to dewpoint values and fog (some dense reducing visibilities to
around 1/4 of a mile) has formed in northeastern Alabama and into
Cullman county. As a strong area of low pressure moves east into
Missouri towards daybreak, a strengthening low level jet developing
ahead of the low should help to increase winds enough to begin
dissipating fog as early as 4 or 5 AM. However, between now and 4 AM
dense fog in northeastern Alabama should develop further west. How
much further west and north is a bit more uncertain. At this time
though, Cullman, Morgan, Marshall, Dekalb, and Jackson counties in
northern Alabama will definitely experience dense fog during that
period. Thus, issued a Dense Fog Advisory for those counties from 8
PM through 4 AM. Areas of fog look likely to form further west as
well. However, winds and higher dewpoint depressions earlier today
may be just enough to keep widespread dense fog from forming in
Colbert county east into Madison county and into southern middle
Tennessee. Thus, will hold off on an a dense fog advisory for those
areas, but will issue a special weather statement highlighting the
possibility of patchy dense fog formation for the next few hours for
Madison, Lawrence, and Franklin counties in northern Alabama as well.
Tweaked low temperatures down a tad into the upper 30s to mid 40s,
as temperatures are already in the lower 40s near and east of I-65.
These could drop a few more degrees before sunrise due to cold air
drainage from the mountains of northwestern Georgia and eastern
Tennessee.
.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
As has been advertised, the next system slated to arrive in the TN
Valley is currently taking shape over the Intermountain West (per RAP
analysis), and will shift E/SE overnight. A sfc low will develop and
deepen over the OK/KS border tonight, and will track E/NE into the OH
Valley by this time tomorrow. This will drag a cold front toward the
area, along with showers overspreading the region late tomorrow
afternoon (between 21-00Z). Much of the upper level support will
remain well N of our local area tomorrow/tomorrow night, so a
thunder-free forecast is anticipated. Given this system is starved
for moisture, rainfall totals will remain less than 0.1-0.25".
The real story with this systems passage will be the cold air that
filters in thanks to NW flow aloft in the wake of the deepening upper
trof to the E/NE. Temperatures will tumble into the lower 30s by
Monday morning, with all of the precip having moved well E of the
region before the truly cold air arrives. Daytime highs Monday will
top out in the middle 40s, with temps again plummeting down into the
middle 20s for Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be a near repeat of
Monday, with daytime temps well below normal in the middle 40s. The
only difference will be that morning lows Wednesday will be a degree
or two warmer than Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a cold and dry
forecast wraps up the short-term portion of the forecast through
midweek.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
The medium range shows greater spread and uncertainty than usual.
Wednesday should be quiet with moderating flow behind a departing
surface high. Thursday becomes more uncertain. The GFS & FV3 have
minor differences in timing with a central Rockies shortwave; the
ECMWF and GEM bring in precipitation a full day later from a
completely different Rockies longwave trough. The national blend,
ECMWF EPS, and NAEFS support spreading low PoPs across Thursday and
Friday, but seem to skew towards the later solution. The forecast
will do the same. Temperatures will moderate towards normal Thursday
into Friday.
Med-range models continue to advertise an amplified pattern for next
Saturday, though differences in the details (tilt, depth, etc.) still
exist this far out. High PoPs are warranted for this time frame but
will be reduced from the blend consensus given the uncertain details,
while temperatures may crack normal under persistent southerly flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through approximately
3Z. Winds are already very light at KMSL and good radiational cooling
is expected this evening. Winds remain closer to 5 knots at KHSV,
but the air is much more moist than KMSL. This will likely set the
stage from some light fog to form at times through 7Z (at KMSL) or 8Z
(at KHSV). KHSV fog formation is a bit more uncertain, as some models
forecast winds to remain at 4 or 5 knots through much of the night.
These winds likely will become lighter briefly between 04Z and 07Z as
well though. Winds remain from the south tomorrow, but increase
around 08Z to around 5 knots or higher. This should dissipate any fog
formation into the daybreak hours. Winds really increase after 12Z
with sustained winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots.
Some higher gusts are possible after 18Z, between 25 and 30 knots.
Cigs around 5000 feet develop between 18Z and 21Z at both terminals.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...BCC
AVIATION...KTW
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
552 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
The RAP and HRRR models are tracking the h700mb low slightly west of
the mainstream model consensus. More of western and ncntl Nebraska
will be favored for snowfall and a slight increase in amounts (about
an inch or so) is in the forecast. Satellite and sfc obs indicate
productive deformation zone across WY this afternoon which will
shift into Nebraska late this afternoon and tonight. The new
forecast shows a few areas of Sheridan and western Cherry county
could receive around 6 inches of snow.
About 1 to 2 hours of heavy snow and very low visibility is expected
as the arctic front moves south through central and srn Nebraska
tonight. This heavy snow should be accompanied by strong wind gusts
to 45 mph. The RAP shows the h700mb low moving at 40 mph which is
very fast. Both the RAP and HRRR models show very strong radar
returns in their reflectivity products which suggests convective
snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater will develop for an
hour or two followed by lighter snowfall rates for a few hours.
Given the 25 to 35 mph winds and gusts to around 45 or 50 mph
predicted by the HRRR and RAP models, a period of blizzard
conditions will develop tonight which should be brief once the snow
diminishes in intensity. It would be the perfect opportunity for the
NWS`s new snow squall warning product but national guidance on the
product has not been released so instead, look for significant
weather advisories or special weather statements on the progress of
this potentially dangerous weather event.
The snow and strong winds will exit srn Nebraska by sunrise Sunday
with a few hours of gusty winds in the morning. Gradual clearing is
expected throughout the day with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
Two significant weather systems have been identified in the extended
forecast. The first is Wednesday with a second Friday into Saturday.
The system Wednesday is just a weak disturbance moving through in
northwest flow and will mainly impact areas east of along and east
of highway 83. Arctic high pressure will be centered over the
Midwest with the cold air backed into eastern and part of ncntl
Nebraska. The ECM and GFS are reasonably good agreement for a chance
of freezing rain and snow. The model p-type in both models indicate
some chance for freezing rain/drizzle. Very light QPF is forecast in
both models and the GFS ensemble (less than 1/10 of an inch) as the
better focus aloft will farther east in the Missouri River basin.
The weather system Friday into Saturday could be more problematic.
In fact, the system appears to resemble the ongoing storm according
to the GFS ensemble with the upper support moving through the nrn
Rockies and dipping into Nebraska. This will also be a rain to snow
event and the model consensus favors eastern Nebraska for the best
QPF as a fairly strong surge of moisture develops from the south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 552 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018
For KLBF...Rain is expected to arrive within the next hour before
quickly changing over to a rain/snow mix. All snow is expected by
05Z. Blowing snow is a concern for tonight and into Sunday morning
as northwest winds gust up to 35 knots. Snow ends by mid morning
Sunday with VFR conditions returning by late afternoon.
For KVTN...Snow will continue through Sunday morning. Northwest
winds will increase to near 35 knots during the overnight hours
causing blowing snow and reductions in visibilities. Snow is
anticipated to end by 10Z to 12Z with VFR conditions returning by
mid afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Sunday for
NEZ006>009-022>025-035-036-056>058.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Sunday for NEZ038-059-070-071.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Sunday for
NEZ004-005-094.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for
NEZ010-026>029-037-069.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
933 PM EST Sat Nov 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A Deepening area of low pressure moves just south of Long Island
tonight, with brief high pressure building in behind Sunday.
Another storm system passes Monday. Deep low pressure remains
northeast of the area resulting in cold northwest winds through
much of the week. High pressure builds by late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No changes at this time, the forecast appears on track.
Monitoring axis of heaviest rain, and observing 1/2-3/4 rainfall
rates per hour in some of the heavier bands SW of the region.
HRRR progs this heavier rain to remain south. Sfc low pressure
and apparent pressure falls backed by latest model guidance
suggest a slight shift to the south per previous guidance.
Weak instability may settle just south of LI as well, so cut
back thunder chances from the south shore of LI, southward over
the ocean waters.
Still looks like moderate to heavy rain will impact the area
through 3-4 am. At this time, do not foresee widespread flash
flooding per guidance and observed rainfall rates. However,
urban and poor drainage flooding is likely, and locally heavier
amounts of 2 inches or more is still possible. Rainfall quickly
decreases in coverage into morning as subsidence increases
behind the departing system. Temperatures remain steady or rise
a few degrees, with warmest temps across eastern LI where E/SE
winds ahead of the low bring in warmer air. NW locations likely
remain in the mid to upper 30s. Plain rain is expected, with any
freezing rain remaining to the north of the CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions develop for Sunday into much of Sunday night as
brief upper riding and an attendant surface high move through.
As the surface high will be centered more to the south (e.g.
will not be of arctic origin...) the air mass will remain mild
and closer to climatological normals, aided slightly in weak
downslope flow into the metros. The high then shifts offshore
overnight, giving way to weak warm advection ahead of the next
approaching frontal system. It is possible that light drizzle
develops by daybreak Sunday night as moisture increases beneath
a lingering low level inversion, however precipitation is more
likely into Monday. Low temperatures will be close to normal for
time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridge axis passes Monday, followed by an upper level low with
embedded shortwaves pivoting around the base of the low as it slowly
heads east. The upper low passes well to the northeast late in the
week, and amount of ridging behind the low differs due to model
differences in downstream trough out west.
Overall, the upcoming week will be characterized by colder than
normal conditions once the Monday storm system passes. Gusty cold NW
flow prevails Tuesday through Thursday, with a secondary sfc front
crossing the area Thursday. By Friday and Saturday, high pressure
slowly builds which will result in lightening winds but still cold
temps. For the Tue-Sat timeframe, temps should average at least 5
degrees below normal.
The weather is dry Tue-Sat for the most part, outside of any rain/
snow showers mid week associated with the upper low.
For Monday, a period of moderate to heavy rain looks to be confined
to Monday afternoon into the evening. The system is progressive, so
a prolonged steady rain is not anticipated. On average around 1/2 of
rain is expected with this system as it moves through.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will track northeast from the Delmarva Peninsula
this evening to south of Nova Scotia by Sunday evening.
Becoming IFR or throughout by around midnight as heavy rain
overspreads the area from SW to NE. Conditions should improve to
VFR by mid Sunday morning at all but KSWF and KGON where MVFR
conditions should linger will into Sunday afternoon, before
becoming VFR late.
Most likely any thunder stays to the south of Long Island,
however cannot completely rule out overnight at KJFK and KISP.
LLWS mainly at NYC/Long Island/CT terminals into the overnight
hours.
Winds back to the NE-N and increase to 15-20KT overnight
(except remain light and variable at KSWF). Winds become NW
throughout by mid Sunday morning at around 10-15KT. City/Long
Island/W CT terminals could see gusts around 20KT Sunday
afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday night...VFR, then becoming IFR late.
.Monday-Monday evening...IFR or lower likely in Rain. LLWS
possible. SE winds G15-20KT possible Monday, LLWS possible
eastern terminals Monday evening.
.Late Monday night-Tuesday night...VFR. NW winds G20-30kt Late
Monday night/Tuesday morning. W winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday
afternoon/night.
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR. Possible exception Wednesday of
isolated-scattered snow showers producing localized MVFR
conditions. W-NW winds G15-25kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
No changes at this time. The forecast appears on track.
A strong low pressure system is expected to move over the waters
overnight, with a strengthening pressure gradient leading to
E/SE gales on the eastern ocean/Long Island Sound and bays late
tonight. Additionally, NW flow may briefly remain strong during
the morning on the eastern ocean waters as low pressure departs.
Otherwise, seas on the ocean waters will gradually subside but
remain at or near SCA-levels into Sunday and Sunday night as
weaker flow develops across the area in response to high
pressure.
By Monday, E/SE winds increase ahead of a front and area of low
pressure. The low passes over the waters by evening, then
deepens as it tracks to the northeast. Winds shift around to the
NW, and gusty conditions will prevail through the mid week
period. As such, SCA conditions are likely for quite some time
early to mid week across the waters. Gale force wind gusts are
possible from time to time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A quick moving low pressure system will produce around 1-2
inches of rain across the area, with locally higher amounts
possible in any heavier rain.
At this time, do not foresee widespread flash flooding per
guidance and observed rainfall rates upstream. However, urban
and poor drainage flooding is likely particularly near any leaf
clogged drains. Additionally, there may be localized flooding
along flashy small rivers, streams and creeks in northeastern
NJ.
Another fast moving system will bring the potential for 1/2 inch of
rain Monday into Monday night. Do not expect widespread hydrologic
impacts with this system.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are much higher during the day around high tide,
around a 1 ft difference.
However, with low pressure expected to pass south of Long Island
this evening, feel there may be enough surge for vulnerable
locations to approach if not exceed minor coastal flooding
benchmarks tonight as east winds increase around the time of high
tide. The greatest threat is across the South Shore Bays of Long
Island, and western LI Sound, but do have some concerns for
Peconic/Gardiners Bays of eastern LI and the lower NY Harbor due to
easterly fetch/tidal piling around high tide. Fresh water rainfall
coinciding with high tide will not help either.
For Sunday morning, winds do shift around to the N/NW as the storm
system moves east, but residual surge may result in localized
flooding once again as astronomical tides are much higher as
previously noted. As such, will post a coastal flood statement for
much of the area except SE CT. This statement will cover the next
two tide cycles, tonight and Sunday morning/early afternoon.
Do not anticipate any issues for Sunday night`s high tide.
Then attention turns to Monday. At this time, the high tide cycle
looks vulnerable for widespread minor to locally moderate coastal
flooding. Too far for any coastal flood products attm, but this tide
cycle will need to be watched closely as E/SE winds increase ahead
of another area of low pressure that develops along a frontal
boundary.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC Central Park winds are out of service until further notice.
Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ335-338-345.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ330-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ353-355.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/PW
NEAR TERM...PM/PW/MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...Maloit
MARINE...PM/PW/MD
HYDROLOGY...MD/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
748 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
Updated/refreshed grids zones to increase pops over the
southeastern Colorado plains this evening. Also, recently allowed
the high wind warning for the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
to expire.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
...Wind driven snow will continue along the Continental Divide with
damaging winds expected across the plains through tonight and some
wind driven snow on the Palmer Divide...
Forecast has been very fluid today with models trending stronger and
farther west with the storm track with each run. Upper low now
closes off across northeast CO this evening and tracks into western
KS by 09z. This has resulted in a slightly delayed front (though
only by an hour or so) but also a stronger surge behind the front as
upper low intensifies and drops southeastward. As of 22z...front
has passed through COS and should arrive along the Arkansas river
around 4 PM...and will pass through the remainder of the southeast
plains by 6 PM. Getting gusts to around 60 mph behind the front at
AFA and LIC...and expect similar gusts to spread across southeast
Colorado immediately behind the front. Current high wind highlights
look on target.
High res models are showing another surge of even stronger winds
will spread across the southeast plains after 10 PM as the system
deepens across eastern CO. Gusts with this second surge could
approach 70 mph across the plains given the tight surface pressure
gradient. Strong cross winds on east west oriented roadways and the
potential for property damage will be greatest after 10 PM into the
early morning hours. With the system wrapping up farther west than
previously anticipated...models are now suggesting a window of wind
driven snow will be likely for the Palmer Divide. Storm will be
brief, hitting hardest in the 03z to 09z window and producing a
couple inches of snow across northern El Paso County. If snow were
heavier and duration longer, this would be a blizzard event. But
given the lighter snow amounts and shorter duration, think the main
impact will be from wind and the potential for wind damage rather
than the blowing snow. So, have hoisted a winter weather advisory
for now along to highlight the potential for brief impacts to
visibility given the blowing snow potential. Later shifts will need
to monitor high res model trends closely. Have also added some pops
and snow to the northern slopes of the Raton Ridge tonight based on
latest HRRR runs...though accumulations look much lighter so no
winter weather highlights look necessary at this point. Can`t
stress enough that this system has been rapidly evolving and further
changes to the forecast may be necessary as this event unfolds.
Snow and blowing snow will also continue along the Continental
Divide this evening. Current warnings and advisories for the
central mountains look on target. Have included the La Garita
mountains in the advisory given latest radar and trends in the HRRR
model run. This area could see total accumulations in the 2 to 6
inch range. The remainder of the mountains should see accumulations
more in the 1 to 3 inch range.
Winds will taper down early Sunday morning and forecast area will
dry out. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler than
today...though with gusty north winds through the morning should
still manage to climb into the 40s for the plains. Mountains will
see temperatures in the 20s and 30s with teens above timberline.
-KT
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
Hello Southern Colorado! First time, long time. Looking forward to
many years of service to the region for all your weather needs.
The mid-level pattern starts off rather quiet across the region with
shortwave ridging and zonal-ish flow in place. By the end of the
current long term period we could see another shortwave trough
traverse near the region but as of now the timing and strength of
the system is still very uncertain.
As mentioned above, the first part of the long term is rather quiet
with ridging in place helping to dry us out. Some of the valleys
across the west look to have a pretty good shot at nearly perfect
radiational cooling so have dropped overnight lows both Sunday and
Monday nights at least 8-10 degrees edging closer to the MET
guidance.
Decent amount of dry air in place much of the week will allow for
crisp cold nights rebounding nearly 30-40 degrees for daytime highs
outside of the higher terrain ; several degrees above average for
late November. Those larger diurnal ranges are just fantastic.
A very weak shortwave trough of low pressure may provide enough
lift, with some moisture in place, to generate a few high terrain
snow showers on Wednesday, but at this point it`s not much to write
home about. The next potential, larger, system is still a ways away,
try saying that 10 times fast. Still lots of uncertainty with how
quick and deep the system moves into the region. The ensemble trends
with the mid-levels has been variable, to say the least, the past
several runs. The EPS has been closing off the wave as of late while
the GEFS and GEPS keep the wave much weaker and quicker moving off
towards the east. At this time, the model spread allows us only so
much confidence to keep PoPs in the chance/scattered range with snow
in the west and rain across the Plains. Again it is way too early to
finetune this system but the general trend has been a quiet work
week with a weekend trough/low. Does this trend continue into
December?
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 353 PM MST Sat Nov 24 2018
A strong cold front will bring a wind shift from the north with
gusts to around 50 kts for KCOS and KPUB through the afternoon.
Showers along the Palmer Divide may come close to KCOS bringing some
brief VFR to high end MVFR cigs...but largely look to stay north of
the area. Any snowfall would be brief and light with amounts under
an inch. KPUB will likely remain dry. Another surge of strong
winds will spread across the plains after 04z and could see gusts up
to 55 kts through the early morning hours. Winds will decrease
Sunday morning.
KALS will remain breezy from the west with gusts to around 40 kts
through the evening. Winds will shift around from the north and
gradually decrease overnight. Some brief VFR cigs will be possible
during the overnight hours. Lighter winds can be expected for
Sunday.
Mountains will remain obscured along the Continental Divide
overnight with SN and BLSN. The southeast mountains will see
periodic mtn obscurations through midnight along the crest of the
Sangres, and Pikes Peak. Winds will gust to around 60 kts at times
but will diminish towards early Sunday morning. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Sunday for COZ083>089-093-094.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ095>099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ059-061.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ064-
066.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for COZ084.
&&
$$