Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/19/18

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

 650 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure off the SC coast will continue to
develop overnight bringing extensive cloud cover and a few
areas of light rain. On Monday the disturbance will move
northward away from the region as the next weak cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front with limited moisture
will cross the region early Tuesday. High pressure will dominate
during the middle of the week with unsettled weather returning
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface low will continue to develop along SC coast and
lift northward overnight. This will allow for isentropic lift
over the surface ridge located along the SC and NC Piedmont.
Expect broken or overcast skies through Monday morning. The RAP
indicates an increase in isentropic lift this evening into
early Monday morning along the eastern FA. This will lead to
areas of light rain across the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee
regions. The HRRR has also been consistently indicating some
activity in this area, increasing confidence. Rainfall amounts
should remain light with only a shallow warm cloud layer and
minimal instability above the inversion. Moisture becomes more
shallow after midnight and should cause any lingering activity
to diminish.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.
Abundant low level moisture should allow for low clouds and some
fog, reducing visibilities for the Monday morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a chance for lingering showers across the eastern
Midlands early Monday morning due to a coastal trough. The chance
for showers will diminish by mid morning as the trough moves farther
offshore and weak high pressure builds over the region.
An approaching cold front will move into the Upstate Monday night
and reach the forecast area around daybreak Tuesday. The best
dynamics will remain north of the area so have continued with a dry
forecast. The cold front will reach the coast by early afternoon
with high pressure along with colder and drier air returning to
the region for Tuesday night.

High temperatures will be in the 60s Monday and Tuesday then cool to
the 50s Wednesday. Nighttime lows will be near 50 Monday night then
in the 30s Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure over the region will keep dry weather in
place Thursday into Friday. Our next storm system will develop
over the central Plains Thursday night then move rapidly
eastward through the day Friday. Clouds and gradually deeper
moisture will return ahead of this system Friday, with the best
moisture and forcing for showers Friday night into Saturday.
Although models differ on the position and intensity of the low
pressure system...there is agreement on moisture for showers
Friday night and Saturday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the storm
system lifting north of the region with dry conditions
returning for Sunday.

Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak surface low along the coast will slowly be moving
northward overnight. This low as allowing low-level moisture to
move into the eastern Midlands and CSRA, with vfr strato-cu
deck across that region. Additional moisture will be moving
inland through the night, and models showing ceilings lowering
to mvfr and then ifr by morning. Increase in moisture and cool
overnight temperatures will allow for areas of ifr/lifr fog to
develop towards sunrise Monday morning across the region. Winds
will be light and variable overnight, then become westerly
through the day Monday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

 1018 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds Moves east into the Canadian Maritimes
tonight with low pressure tracking across the Gulf of Maine
on Monday. The low will exit quickly into the Maritimes Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1010 PM Update: Temps cont to be a challenge across the N and E
and we cont to lower fcst lows across the N, particularly ovr
vly areas where near calm winds with remnant arctic air still in
place has allowed an arctic sfc base invsn to form ovr these
areas. Fcst lows have been posted in the 1 to 2 am tm frame,
with increasing cld cvr from the SW later tngt xpctd to
neutralize and eventually reverse the fall of temps from SW to
NE across the FA. Otherwise, only minor chgs made to increase
fcst cld cvr for the late ngt into erly morn hrs Mon.

Orgnl Disc: Another very cold night in store tonight with some
snow for Monday.

High pres will be to the east tonight w/a light s flow setting
up. Decided to lean w/a blend of the RAP and GEM for the
overnight temps.Mostly clear skies initially w/temperatures
expected to drop sharply into the single numbers across much of
Aroostook County and portions of northern Somerset and
Piscataquis counties as a strong inversion sets up. Both
guidance appear to be handling the current setup well per the
last 3 hr trend. It looks like low/mid teens further south, even
some inland areas of the coast. Given this set up, cannot rule
out a some subzero readings in the Allagash Valley and river
valleys especially with the snow cover in place. Increasing
mid/high level clouds will move in overnight capping temps by
before sunrise. A disturbance, in the form of a weak low moves
up from the sw along a developing coastal front later tonight
into Monday. Clouds are expected to low and thicken overnight
especially s of a Bangor to Calais line later overnight with
some light snow developing along the coast by pre-dawn hrs on
Monday. Could be seeing close to an inch of snow along coastal
Hancock County by daybreak Monday.

The low is forecast to move quickly across the Gulf of Maine
w/snow gradually spreading nne during the day. This is a fast
moving system given the broad upper flow. Some warmer air looks
like it could make it into immediate coast w/snow mixing w/or
changing to rain cutting down on snowfall amounts. The 12z GEM,
GFS, ECMWF and the respective ensembles show this warmer air
making to the coast. The outlier is the NAM as it keeps the
coastal front off the coast, allowing for colder air to hang on
along the coast, and therefore all snow. This in turn would mean
more snow accumulation. Attm, decided to lean away from the
colder NAM and bring some warmer air to the coast allowing for a
mix/or changeover to rain. Decided to go at w/1-3 inches of snow
for the coast and lesser amounts toward Bangor and Calais. This
matches up w/the latest snowfall probabilities from Weather
Prediction Center(WPC). Across the north and west, a weak cold
front is expected to apch that region in the afternoon w/some
snow showers expected and minor accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the period a low will be moving into the Bay of Fundy.
A cold front will be moving into northern Maine. Early Tuesday
morning the low will move east into the Maritimes, the cold
front will east into New Brunswick. Higher pressure will ridge
into Northern Maine as another low tracks into southwestern Gulf
of Maine Tuesday morning. Tuesday evening the low will track
east to Southwestern Nova Scotia. Good general agreement that
the low will bring snow into Downeast and into the Southern
Aroostook and Central Highlands. This low will clear the area
early Wednesday morning, another low will move south of the
Hudson Bay area into the Great lakes region. This low will exit
into The Gulf of Maine near Portland Wednesday afternoon and
will be in the Gulf of Maine south of Bar Harbor by the end of
the period.

Used a blend of the GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/Winds/POP used the
PoP sky consistency tool. Used consall for QPF and QPFPoP
consistency tool. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters.
Used the GYX wind tool for gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The start of the extended period will find a low tracking east across
the northern Gulf of Maine. There will be a deep low well east
of the area in the Canadian Maritimes. A Canadian High pressure
ridge will be digging south from the west of Hudson Bay south
through the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf of Mexico. This high
pressure ridge will build east and will move across western
Maine Thursday evening. The high will build through Maine into
the Atlantic early Saturday morning. A deepening low over
Southern Canada west of Lake Superior with a cold front
extending into the Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning will
move east. The cold front will move into Western Maine Sunday
morning and will affect the area through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out differences. Used NAWAVE4 for
seas. Used the GYX wind tool for gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight w/tempo MVFR for KFVE early
this evening w/a few snow showers. MVFR cigs expected later
tonight for KBGR and KBHB w/snow. IFR for KBGR/KBHB on Monday
w/snow or a mix. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR across
the northern TAF sites by mid to late morning w/some light snow
especially for KHUL.

SHORT TERM: Unsettle weather will persist across the region through
much of the period. Cloudy skies with CIG and VSBY generally
MVFR across northern Maine, IFR conditions for BGR and BHB as a
low moves from the Gulf of Maine into the Bay of Fundy early in
the period, improving to MVFR early Tuesday morning. IFR
conditions will return for BGR and BHB late Tuesday morning as
another low tracks into the Gulf of Maine. MVFR conditions will
return early Wednesday morning as the low track east into New
Brunswick. MVFR conditions will continue with brief periods of
IFR in snowshowers for BHB and BGR into Thursday morning. Higher
pressure will build into Maine Thursday morning conditions will
improve to VFR through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines expected into Monday. SW winds of 10 kt
are forecast to switch to the NNW on Monday as the low passes
by. Seas 2-3 ft to gradually build to 3-4 ft by late in the day
on Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through
the short term period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...VJN/Norton
Marine...VJN/Norton



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

 954 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain situated between high pressure and a
coastal trough until a cold front moves through by mid week.
High pressure will prevail mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM: KCLX certainly detected less coverage than it did
early this evening. However, another patch of light rain has
formed over the near shore waters, should slide over the SC
coast over the next hour. I will maintain the current PoP trend.
The primary forecast challenge will be the fog potential
overnight. Areas outside the rounds of light rainfall will
likely remain less mixed. In fact, the HRRR indicates that sfc
condensation pressure deficits will fall will fall below 1mb
late tonight across SE GA and portions of the SC Lowcountry.
This is very a very strong signal for dense fog. I will increase
the mention of fog across SE GA and SC counties along the
Savannah River to areas of fog.

As of 635 PM: A large area of stratus will persist within an
inverted surface trough across the forecast area. In addition,
scattered to numerous light showers will likely continue across
the SC Lowcountry tonight, then move off shore after sunrise
Monday. MOS indicates that cloud based will lower and patchy fog
will become common across SE GA and portions of SC. I will
update the forecast to adjust fog timing and placement.

As of 535 PM: KCLX continued to show a large area of light
showers across the SC Lowcountry. Near term guidance indicates
that the light rain will continue through most of the night.
However, rainfall totals are forecast to favor amounts of a
quarter inch or less. I will update the forecast to increase
sky, extended the period of likely PoPs over the SC Lowcountry
and shorten over SE GA.

Previous Discussion:
Moisture convergence enhanced by a surface trough will maintain
a pool of PWAT values around 1 inch along the coast and adjacent
coastal waters, and this scenario will support showers of
varying coverage which will continue to stream onshore and into
areas mainly north of I-16 and east of I-95 through tonight.
With time, the trough and associated pool of enhanced moisture
will gradually advance toward the N/NE, and the focus of showers
will shift N/NE accordingly. Expect near term adjustments to
PoPs as this precip event evolves tonight. Later tonight, light
winds, low temp/dewpoint spreads and the potential for some
clearing could support area of fog, especially along/west of
I-95. Ongoing forecasts indicate patchy fog in this area, but
more significant/widespread fog could develop late tonight into
early Monday. Low temps should range from the upper 40 far
inland to around 60 on the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering rain chances associated with a coastal trough will
continue through Monday morning then diminish as the trough axis
pushes offshore in the afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail
thereafter. A cold front push offshore Tuesday afternoon with a
reinforcing northeast flow setting up Tuesday evening. Westerly
flow ahead of the frontal surface will prevent moisture
transport out of the Gulf of Mexico, so the front looks to pass
through rain-free with just an increase in cloudiness. Cool,
high pressure will prevail Wednesday as an inland wedge begins
to take shape. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s
both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, then cool to the lower-mid
60s, except upper 60s along the Altamaha River by Wednesday.
Lows will range from the lower-mid 50s Monday Night with lower
40s inland to the upper 40s/lower 50s coast Tuesday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions will prevail behind the front, with a minor cooldown
before moderating into late week. Model divergence increases by the
end of the week. Onshore flow and increasing moisture levels will
set the stage and a developing coastal trough or possible surface
low could provide the forcing for precipitation production heading
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flight conditions will deteriorate across the terminals tonight.
A large area of stratus will persist within a inverted surface trough
across the forecast area. In addition, scattered to numerous
light showers will likely continue across the SC Lowcountry
tonight, then move off shore after sunrise Monday. MOS indicates
that cloud based will lower to LIFR and possibly VLIFR at KSAV
late tonight. The onset of light NW winds during the mid morning
should advect drier air across the region. VFR conditions are
forecast to develop during the mid day.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The shifting position of the ongoing surface trough
over coastal waters will determine wind direction, with E/NE
winds 10-15 kt west of the trough axis closer to shore and over
Charleston Harbor and E/SE winds 10-15 kt east of the trough
axis 10-15 miles and farther off the coast. Seas of 3-5 ft will
prevail and will include a 9-10 second period swell from the
ESE.

Monday through Wednesday: Offshore winds will prevail through the
period. Winds are expected to turn northeast Tuesday Night and
continue through Wednesday as a secondary surge works south down the
coast in the wake of a cold front. Winds will remain less than 15 kt
with seas 2-4 ft.

Thursday through Saturday: Better model agreement indicates that a
tightening pressure gradient Thursday afternoon into Friday evening
could result in winds and seas reaching Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Unfortunately, forecast uncertainty continues to decrease
late in the week as model guidance diverges regarding formation and
evolution of low pressure.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NED/ST
MARINE...




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

 915 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Surface observations show fog, occasionally dense, has developed
at Fairfield and Ottumwa over the past hour. This was in an area
of deeper snow that has contributed to temperatures plunging into
a 10 to 15 degree range already this evening due to light winds
and clear skies. With light south to southwest winds and weak low
level warm advection developing in this area overnight, at least
patchy fog looks possible along the axis of last night`s heavier
snow over SE Iowa into the IL I-80 corridor. SREF fog probs and
the HRRR backing up this scenario. However, with incoming high
clouds from the NW, confidence is not high and thus have updated
the forecast for only patchy fog wording in this area for late
tonight into early Monday morning.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Despite plenty of sunshine across most of the cwa today
temperatures have been quite cold, thanks to snow cover over most
of the area, clearly seen on visible satellite. Mid afternoon
readings were in the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tonight: High pressure will settle into the area this evening,
allowing for clear skies and light winds. This should drop
temperatures into the teens to around 20. These readings are a few
degrees colder than superblend due to the snow cover. Later
tonight the high begins to shift eastward and south winds return,
especially west of the MS River. There may also be some increase
in cirrus clouds. Temperatures should steady out or actually rise
a bit later tonight in our western counties.

Monday: Skies will be mostly cloudy as a short wave trough drops
southeast across the Midwest. Moisture looks limited and some
models suggest a few snow showers are possible in our eastern
counties. Have added a small pop for late in the afternoon with
this trough. Associated with this trough will be a cold front
pushing across the cwa during the day. There may be some flurries
behind this front but will not mention in the grids for now. Ahead
of the front, temperatures should "warm" briefly into the 30s to
around 40 with a south-southwest wind. Winds turn northwest with
the passage of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Chance of rain late in the new week with some models hinting at a
possible snow storm about November 26.

Monday night and Tuesday: Another shot of cold air as arctic high
pressure builds into the area. Lows will be in the teens to around
20 with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday: Major pattern change to a deepening
trough in the Rockies, and a long wave trough arriving into the
Midwest by late in the week. This will allow for a nice warm-up
and any snow left on the ground will have melted by Wednesday.
This trough should spread rain into the area Friday into Friday
night. With a decent storm system tracking across the upper
Midwest there should be a tight gradient with a southerly flow in
place on Friday. I did raise winds somewhat with gusts to 20-25
knots, compared to the superblend which seemed too weak. However,
there is still plenty of room to raise winds even higher, for
later shifts to monitor model trends. Highs during this time frame
should push well into the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the 30s.
This will at least get our cwa back to normal temperatures, if not
somewhat above normal for a change.

Sunday into the early part of week 2: Too early for details but
the ECMWF/Canadian hint at a possible snow storm for our area,
while the GFS is much weaker with this system. As of this writing
confidence is low but certainly something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Clear skies and light winds will keep VFR conditions in place
tonight as high pressure exits to the east. Monday will see
increasing cloudiness and light south to southwest winds veering
to northwest with the passage of a weak cold front. This front is
expected to be dry, outside a few flurries. Lowering clouds will
likely lead to MVFR ceilings by late afternoon at CID, DBQ and
MLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sheets
SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Sheets



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 448 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Remaining rather cold through mid-week, then temperatures warming
to above normal through next weekend.

The persistent upper pattern that`s been in place for the first
half of November is forecast to break down during the period. The
central North American longwave trough will weaken and shift east
as a more progressive regime from the Pacific spreads inland. The
pattern is expected to eventually evolve toward a more split flow
regime.

Temperatures will remain below normal through mid-week, begin
warming on Thanksgiving Day, then reach above normal for the
remainder of the holiday weekend. A couple light precipitation
events are likely during the week. A system affecting the area
next weekend looks like a little better precipitation producer,
though temperatures will probably be mild enough for rain or a
wintry mix by that point. Precipitation amounts are likely to be
AOB for the period.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface
high pressure stretching from the central Plains to the southern
Great Lakes, and a cold front extending from North Dakota to just
northwest of Lake Superior early this afternoon. Skies are mostly
clear across most of the region, except for an area of strato-cu
near the U.P. border. Light snow is occurring along and behind the
cold front from northern Minnesota into southern Canada. As this
front slowly sags south tonight, snow potential and amounts are
the main forecast concerns.

Tonight...The cold front is projected to reach southern Lake
Superior by around 03z and northern WI by 06z. Dry air in the low
and mid-levels should hold off precip from developing early in the
evening, but the latest guidance insists on saturating soundings
sufficiently for snow in the 04-06z time period over far northern
WI. Though snow should start out relatively light, expect snow
intensities to pick up some overnight when shortwave energy
approaches from the northwest and a weak surface low moves into
northern WI. The light snow is projected to drift south gradually
overnight, but most models keep the southern edge north of Green
Bay, Stevens Point, and Wisconsin Rapids by 12z. Accumulation-
wise, a dendritic growth zone nearing 100mb deep should allow for
relatively high snow ratios over northern WI, which could lead to
1-2 inches by 12z Mon. Temps do not look to fall as much as last
night due to the cloud cover, and lows should only fall into the
mid teens north to the mid 20s near the Lake.

Monday...The cold front will continue to sag slowly southeast and
exit east-central WI around the early afternoon hours. With
shortwave energy still to pass across the region, light snow will
likely continue for much of the morning, with some snow moving
into northeast WI and the Fox Valley by mid-morning. Another half
inch to an inch appears possible from Wausau to the Door Peninsula
through noon, while models indicate amounts under a half inch
remains the most likely scenario over the Fox Valley and east-
central WI. As the shortwave exits and the front moves into
southeast WI, snowfall is expected to end during the afternoon,
with little to no additional accumulations likely. High temps
ranging from the mid 20s in the north to low 30s south.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Scattered snow showers could linger over north-central and east-
central Wisconsin Monday evening. Wind back pretty quickly, so the
lake-effect potential in the north will be limited.

The gradual weakening/progression of the large scale upper trough
will commence by Tuesday, so the next shortwave digging southeast
from Canada will pass farther northeast of the area (compared to
tonight`s system). Chance PoPs across the north seem adequate. It
is even possible a little FZRA/FZDZ could develop near the back
edge of the precipitation.

With the subsequent anticyclone passing north of the area,
easterly winds could bring some flurries to east-central Wisconsin
late Wednesday night or Thanksgiving morning.

The details of the system likely to affect the area next weekend
are still unclear, though that`s not surprising this far in
advance. Temperatures should warm enough for the bulk of the
precipitation to fall as liquid over most of the area, through
the north could still be susceptible to a wintry mix. But in any
case, it does not appear likely to be a major storm.

No significant changes were necessary to the standard forecast
initialization grids.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 448 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

A cold front will approach from the north late tonight into
Monday morning, leading to MVFR/IFR conditions beginning at RHI
around 06Z. The potential for sub-VFR conditions is anticipated to
slowly shift south and east to the remaining TAF sites between
12-15Z Monday. The chance for snow will diminish Monday afternoon
as the cold front sinks south with some LES across the far north
as winds turn northerly.

Snowfall around 1-3 inches is possible north of Merrill and
Antigo by midday Monday, while amounts under an inch is expected
south of Wausau and Sturgeon Bay.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

 825 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will briefly build into the
region today before sliding offshore. A weak area of low
pressure will track across southern New England and the Gulf of
Maine tonight into the day Monday. This disturbance will produce
a light snowfall from southern New Hampshire across the coastal
plain of Maine late tonight into the day Monday. Another area
of low pressure will pass south of the region Tuesday. An Arctic
front will cross the region Wednesday, followed by high
pressure building into the region through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Update...Crystal clear over NErn portions of the forecast area
at this hour are allowing temps to crash into the single digits
around Jackman. This will be short lived however...as low to mid
level moisture is streaming in quickly from the W. The recent
runs of the HRRR actually have a good handle on the
evolution...albeit a little too slow with the timing. Once
these clouds arrive...temps should steady and then begin to
slowly creep up in the Nrn zones. But until then I have updated
temps to be more reflective of current conditions.

Previous discussion...Clouds will continue to thicken and lower
over souther portions of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine
this evening. This cloud cover will be in advance of a weak and
fast moving short wave racing through the base of the large
scale cyclonic flow aloft. Weak warm air advection and
corresponding very weak surface low will allow for echoes to
continue to expand eastward per latest radar imagery.

Light precipitation will slide into New Hampshire this evening.
However in much of the forecast area, the lower and middle
column of the atmosphere remains very dry, so sublimation is
expected early this evening. In any case, light precipitation,
mainly in the form of snow spreads east during the night.

Partly cloudy conditions in northern areas may allow
temperatures to drop into the teens overnight. With clouds over
the south, readings will be much milder, most likely in the 20s
to near 30 near the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak system and limited support race eastward on Monday,
bringing the snow to an end from west to east during the day.
Boundary layer temperatures may be sufficiently mild enough
during the morning and midday hours for the precipitation to mix
with rain. This may occur as the precipitation becomes very
light across the region.

Moisture shifts east during the afternoon and out of the region,
exiting the Penobscot Bay region last. Preliminary snowfall
forecast expected to be in the 1 to 2 inch region with locally
some locations near 3 inches.

As the whole frontal system exits the region, its southward push
will be limited. Therefore, clearing will be limited. In fact,
expect an increase and thickening of clouds once again Monday
night ahead of next approaching system to our south. Light
precipitation may break out once again in the fast flow as low
pressure begins to take shape off the southern New England
coastline. High resolution meso models bring light snow back to
southernmost portions of the forecast area after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Update...Based on latest trends in model guidance I have
increased PoP and snowfall for Tue across much of the forecast
area. Models are beginning to come to a consensus of weak low
pressure tracking just S of the forecast area...with a fairly
robust precip shield to the N of it. The 18.18z NAM and GFS
agree with the 18.12z CMC in placement of the H8 warm front and
associated frontogenesis as WAA increases ahead of the
developing surface low. More or less paralleling the ME coast
and cutting across Srn NH...the agreement is rather remarkable.
While the resolution is not as good in AWIPS...the 18.12z ECMWF
I can infer has the best mid level forcing farther SE than the
rest of the model suite. Even so the ECMWF EPS has nearly every
member with at least 2 inches thru Srn NH and coastal Wrn
ME...with roughly 20 percent of members showing 6 inches or so.
Without getting too bullish...I have used the probability
matched mean QPF blended with WPC...consensus wet bulb temps
aloft...snow ratios...and PoP. The wx grids that fall out of
that are mostly snow...with some rain mixing in near the coast
and parts of SErn NH. I could see a little more mix in the form
of sleet for parts of Srn NH if a more amplified solution like
the NAM were to play out. Resulting snowfall is now a widespread
2 to 4 inches across most of the forecast area S of the mtns.

Previous discussion...Models continue to differ on track and
intensity of low pressure passing offshore on Tuesday. GFS keeps
the system closer to the coast and slightly deeper while ECMWF
farther offshore and weaker. In any case...event still looking
rather benign with accumulations along the coast probably
falling in the 1 to 3 inch range with lesser amounts to the
north. GFS seems to be trending toward the ECMWF solution so
these amounts may still be on the high side. High temperatures
will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s in the north and mid to
upper 30s in the south.

Snow will wind down Tuesday evening as low pressure heads into the
maritimes. Increasing northwest flow will clear skies downwind
of the mountains by late evening as clouds and a few flurries
persist in the north. Will see another night of below normal
temps with lows ranging through the teens to near 20 along the
coast.

Arctic front will push south through the region on Wednesday
bringing another blast of unseasonably cold air into the northeast.
Weak wave on the front will push snow showers and squalls into
the Connecticut Valley during the early afternoon and this
activity will traverse southern zones through the evening hours.
Models continue to show light QPF with this system but could
see a quick inch or two in Squalls which will likely impact the
evening commute in larger population centers of southern New
Hampshire and Maine. May have a chance to try out the "new for
this season" snow squall warnings. Highs on Wednesday will range
through the 20s north and in the lower to mid 30s in the south.

Snow showers will quickly end Wednesday evening as the front
pushes offshore and brisk northwest flow kicks in behind.
Looking for clearing downwind of the mountains and clouds and
flurries in the north. Low temperatures by Thanksgiving morning
will range from 5 to 10 above north to the lower to mid teens
south.

High pressure building in from the west will keep a brisk northwest
flow going across the region for the Thanksgiving holiday. High
temperatures will be well below normal with highs only in the
teens north and lower to mid 20s south.

Very frigid temperatures on tap for Thursday night as high
pressure cresting overhead allows for good radiational cooling.
Lows will range through the single numbers in interior sections
to the lower teens along the coast.

Upper level ridge will build in from the west for the end of the
week as surface high slides offshore. Weak over-running will
bring variable cloudiness for much of the day along with
moderating temps. High temps will range through the 20s to lower
30s.

High pressure will continue to drift off to the east Friday night
as upper ridge crests over the area. looking for partly cloudy
skies overnight with lows once again below normal. Lows will
generally range through the teens.

Big differences between models for the weekend with GFS pumping
out nearly a foot of rain from Sunday into Monday while ECMWF
keeping most of this moisture to the south of the forecast area.
Needless to say...will be sticking close to SB numbers for the
latter half of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR northern locations with MVFR conditions
expected in light snow over far southern areas tonight into
Monday. Conditions improve Monday afternoon, before ceilings
lower once again later Monday night ahead of the next system.

Long Term...
MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby Tuesday....becoming VFR Tuesday night.
VFR Wednesday with areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby in afternoon
and evening snow showers and Squalls. VFR Wednesday night
through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Relatively weak surface flow will allow for winds
and seas to remain below SCA thresholds in the near/short term
portion of the forecast.

Long Term...
SCA`s may be needed Tuesday and again Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

 947 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley will bring
a chance of precipitation to the region tonight into Tuesday.
High pressure will then build into the region through mid week,
leading to dry conditions and a gradual warmup through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Rain across southern Illinois will spread east northeast into
the forecast area late tonight ahead of an area of low pressure.
HRRR and RAP trends have been to bring this shield of
precipitation including the axis of highest amounts further
north. Thus have adjusted PoPs accordingly. In addition, have
bumped PoPs up and they may still need to go higher. Some snow
will occur on the northern edge of the precipitation and would
not be surprised if somewhere in west central Ohio gets up to a
half inch around daybreak. Only minor adjustments to lows
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As the s/w swings through the Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, the
sfc low will cross through srn Ohio. Precipitation will continue
until the low passes. Similar to Sunday night, the majority of
the pcpn will be rain, except on the northern edge where cooler
air will produce a rain/snow mix in the morning. Highs will
range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far
south.

By Monday night the initial s/w will be east of the region in the
Appalachians. However, a digging longwave trof will swinging
through the Great Lakes. This will keep upper support and
therefore will delay the exiting of the pcpn to the east. A
rain/snow mix will linger in the east for much of the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will be moving through at the start of
the long term period.  Colder air will be working into the region
and therefore expect primarily light snow showers across the region
Tuesday morning.  As the day progresses this feature pushes to the
east and with a wind trajectory shift any lake enhancement will cut
off.  Cloud cover will decrease into the evening and overnight hours
allowing for temperatures to fall down into the 20s Tuesday night.

On Wednesday a weak frontal boundary will work into the area,
however moisture is very limited with this feature and therefore do
not expect any precipitation.  High pressure will allow for
continued dry conditions for Thursday and Thursday night.

Late in the day Friday and moreso into Friday night precipitation
will begin to work into the region as the next system approaches.
Models are coming in quicker with this system overall, however there
are more model timing difference today than yesterday.  In general
expect precipitation to be tapering down Saturday night.

There are some model timing differences with the late weekend and
into early next week system.  With these differences decided to go
closer to the ECMWF which would be a slower solution and allowed for
dry conditions on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings will continue to lower ahead of a shield of
precipitation. This will develop across the terminals after 06Z
which will cause ceilings and visibilities to drop to IFR. As a
weak surface low moves across the region on Monday, rain will
come to an end. This will allow visibilities to improve but
ceilings will remain IFR at most sites through the end of the
TAF period.


OUTLOOK...Ceilings will improve to MVFR Monday night and then
likely persist into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 745 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Area of light rain continues to move along and south of the I-70
corridor, and has reached close to the Wabash River. Based on the
current trajectory and short-range models, have made some slight
adjustments to the northern periphery of the PoP`s, nudging them
north a tad. This will mostly be rain, but some light snow may mix
in at times, especially after midnight. Further north, the
clearing line made it to about a Macomb-Pontiac line, and has
recent started to edge northward again. Latest HRRR analysis
continues this trend, and skies there should become mostly cloudy
again by after midnight. Temperatures in the far north, where the
deeper snow cover is located, have dropped quickly. Made some
downward adjustments to lows in that area, though temperatures
should steady out once the clouds arrive.

Updated grids/zones have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Clearing skies were steadily working se toward a Lacon to Macomb
line at mid afternoon, with the overcast stratus deck southeast of
this line. Bases of these low clouds ranged from 400 to 2000 ft. A
light fog/haze remained east of I-55 at mid afternoon with vsbys
of 4-6 miles. Radar mosaic shows an area of light rain showers
over southern MO into sw IL (southeast of St Louis metro) and
tracking ne toward Effingham. Temperatures at 3 pm ranged from
around 32F from Macomb to Bloomington north, to the low to mid 40s
in southeast IL from Mattoon and Paris southeast, with
Lawrenceville at 47F. Surface map shows cold front extending from
southeast Ohio through nw KY/TN into central AR with a weak 1020
mb surface low over central AR and another one along the western
KY/TN border.

Models take weak surface low pressure wave ne along the frontal
boundary tonight and spread area of light rain showers ne across
southeast IL late this afternoon and tonight. Some light snow
could mix in with the light rain later this evening and overnight.
Also patchy fog likely tonight from I-72 south where more low
level moisture present and winds become light with lowering
stratus deck. Models have trended a bit higher with lows tonight
due to more low cloud cover. Lows to range from upper teens and
lower 20s nw of Lincoln where there is some clearing for a time
into this evening with clouds spreading back north during
overnight, while milder low to mid 30s in southeast IL.

Patchy fog and light pcpn to gradually diminish over southeast IL
during Mon morning as weak low pressure pulls away into the
eastern Ohio river valley by noon Mon and into the Virgina`s by
sunset Mon. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies on Mon with cool highs
in the upper 30s and lower 40s and west winds less than 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

A large mid/upper level trof digs over the Great Lakes and Ohio
river valley by Mon evening and slowly shifts eastward during Tue
afternoon. A northern stream short wave diving se over the western
Great Lakes by Mon evening could bring small chances of light pcpn
to areas ne of Bloomington and Champaign Mon night. Lows Mon night
range from lower 20s nw of the IL river, to the upper 20s to near
30F in southeast IL. 1030 mb high pressure extending from MO to
TX will bring partly to mostly sunny skies on Tue to central and
southeast IL but still cool highs in the mid 30s central IL and
upper 30s southeast IL. High pressure settles into the mid MS
river valley on Wed providing a fair amount of sunshine. Upper
level ridge shifts eastward into the high plains on Wed as upper
level trof retreats into eastern Canada and northeast US. Highs
Wed in the lower 40s from I-74 ne and upper 40s sw cwa and
southeast IL.

Upper level ridge flattens somewhat as it shifts eastward into the
MS river valley on Thu/Thanksgiving Day. Ample sunshine on Thu and
southerly flow developing with highs in the mid to upper 40s
central and ne CWA, with southeast IL and SW CWA having lower
50s. A digging upper level trof into the plains by sunrise Friday
will move east toward the MS river by sunset Fri. This will likely
spread rain showers eastward across IL during Friday and continue
Fri night. Ecmwf and GEM models are still dry over IL on Fri
morning while faster GFS spreads showers across IL during Fri
morning. Followed consensus of models with low pops Fri morning
and higher pops Fri afternoon into Fri night. Rain showers to
diminish from west to east during Saturday as trof shifts into the
eastern states. Highs Fri in the upper 40s and lower 50s and
mainly lower 50s on Sat. Temps appear warm enough for pcpn to be
rain with any mix of light snow staying north of CWA with this
storm system late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Clearing line is struggling to get past KPIA, and will need to go
with a TEMPO period for MVFR ceilings initially. The remaining TAF
sites have seen ceilings creep up above 1,000 feet. Think these
will start to lower again this evening, and IFR conditions will be
widespread. No significant improvements are expected until around
12Z near KPIA, and toward midday elsewhere.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

 1105 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018

One last update to tweak overnight lows. Colder valleys have
dropped into the upper 30s in several spots. But lower clouds are
expanding so temperatures should level out from here and
eventually increase towards dawn at those coldest locations. Also
made slight adjustments to other grids to bring them in line with
latest trends.

UPDATE Issued at 941 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018

Beginning to see the development of some lower clouds over
portions of the area, mainly in the north. Initial adjustments to
overnight lows looks pretty good right now though we might see a
spot or two squeak out some upper 30s. Updated sky grids and
brought remaining grids in line with hourly trends. Did nudge back
timing of PoPs (onset of light rain) through the predawn time
frame just slightly based on the latest radar and HRRR trends.
Otherwise the forecast package looks to be in good shape. Will
take one last look at temps over the next hour or so but don`t
expect much to change based on latest developments. If lower
clouds continue to develop and expand across the area we may even
see temps rebound just a bit leading up to sunrise.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018

With the lack of more substantial cloud cover, temps have dropped
fairly quickly with sunset and have already approached advertised
lows (within a couple degrees already) at a few locations in our
east. Typically short term hourly model output tends to perform a
bit better than they have been thus far this evening. Consequently
they were of little use with respect to initialization and
instead made manual adjustments to the temps and dew points to
better capture this evening`s hourly trends. Dropped some of our
typically cooler valley locations a few degrees from our original
forecasted overnight lows. Clouds are still expected to thicken
up and lower late tonight. Feel latest adjustments capture the
situation adequately, especially considering afternoon dew points
only dropped into the low to mid 40s. Thus far it appears
adjustments were not significant enough to warrant an update to
the zone products but eventually will update anyway to freshen up
wording.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 425 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018

20z sfc analysis shows a cold front located off to the northwest
of the area with a weak low pressure wave along this boundary
moving off to the northeast. While this resulted in some mainly
high clouds through the day, temperatures still managed to climb
into the upper 50s and low 60s for most places while dewpoints
held generally in the lower 40s. Winds, meanwhile, where breezy
from the south to southwest north and lighter from the south in
the southern parts of the CWA.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a broad trough through
the northeast half of the country deepening and shifting southeast
into our area. Accompanying the height falls will be a band of
energy cutting across eastern Kentucky in fast, flat flow on
Monday with some trailing amounts inbound toward 12z Tuesday as
the 5h trough axis swings into the Ohio Valley. Given the good
model agreement have favored a blended solution with emphasis on
the higher resolution NAM12 and HRRR for details.

Sensible weather will feature slowly increasing and thickening
clouds tonight - primarily and earliest in the northwest. As such,
expect some river valley fog to be possible in the southeast parts
of the area late tonight. To the northwest some light rain will be
possible before dawn but the bulk of the area will remain dry.
The front slips deeper into the area on Monday with mid range
rain chances following. There does appear to be a split in the
best QPF with a northern track favored initially then a pickup to
the southeast as the cold front passes through later Monday - and
into the night. With its passage, colder air will press into
eastern Kentucky from the northwest leading to a small potential
for a mix of snow towards dawn Tuesday in those places. However,
it does appear that the ice crystals could be lacking so we may
see more in the way of drizzle or sprinkles late Monday night with
the sfc temperatures staying a couple of degrees above freezing.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for the
grids with only minor adjustments for terrain or specific points
each night. As for PoPs, did adjust them more toward the NAM12
for Monday with its splitting QPF scenario preferred.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018

Light rain and drizzle will be continuing to track east across
eastern Kentucky Tuesday morning in a post-frontal airmass. A cold
air advection and upslope regime will keep this in play into the
afternoon along with abundant cloud cover, subsequently keeping
temperatures generally in the low 40s for highs. Could end up
seeing several spots struggle to hit 40 depending on exactly how
long low clouds hold on.

Surface ridging will build in later Tuesday into midweek as a
Hudson Bay low brings another round of precipitation to the Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. This system may bring some cloud
cover across portions of the Big Sandy region and northeast
Kentucky as northwest flow remains in place.

A sprawling ridge will bring rising heights and clearing skies to
eastern Kentucky for Thanksgiving into the end of the week as a
southern stream system remains well to the south of the Tennessee
Valley. This will result in high temperatures warming back into
the 50s for the end of the week, before an upper trough moves
across the Rockies and into the Great Plains. This feature will
draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward by Friday night
into Saturday, leading to the next shot of rainfall across the
Commonwealth.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018

VFR flight conditions will gradually drop into MVFR territory by
dawn in our northwest, and the remainder of our area through the
day Monday. By late in the forecast period CIGS will fall to IFR
levels for KSYM and then the remainder of our terminals just
beyond the end of the period, or Monday evening as a cold frontal
boundary passes through the area. The regional mosaic radar shows
some light echos out to our northwest but at this time expect
little more than sprinkles are reaching the surface, if that.
However, light rain will develop across our Bluegrass area by
tomorrow morning and expand slowly southeastward through the day.
Winds will continue to flow out of the south/southwest at 5 kts
or less through the overnight. Some terminals will manage to go
light and variable under a nocturnal inversion. But winds will
increase again through the day Monday, 5 to 10 kts and become more
westerly as a cold front first approaches and then passes across
eastern Kentucky Monday evening, roughly between 22Z Monday and
06Z Tuesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...RAY




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Phoenix AZ

 139 PM MST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain stationed over the area through the early
portion of the week resulting in temperatures near or just above the
seasonal average. A relatively dry storm system moves through the
region around Thanksgiving bringing clouds and cooler conditions.
There is a slight chance of showers to the deserts but best chances
will likely be confined to the higher elevations north and east of
Phoenix. Continue dry and cooler conditions area expected late in
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Flat ridging and dry westerly flow remains in place across the
region. Current geocolor GOES-16 satellite imagery shows smoke
from the wildfires in California making their way into our region
and looking outside there is considerable haziness. In addition,
the HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecast is showing this as
well. Outside of this, dry conditions will prevail today with
temperatures across the lower deserts in the 70s. Tomorrow,
clouds (mainly mid and upper-level) will begin to increase from
the west ahead of an approaching weather system. With very little
low-level moisture associated with this system (PWATs mainly .5
inches), no rain is forecast and GEFS plumes continue to show zero
QPF across our CWA. Despite the cloud cover, warm air advection
ahead of the system will keep temperatures from cooling, with
highs near or a degree warmer than what we are seeing this
afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Model guidance remains very consistent in calling for a Pacific
closed low to open up and quickly race east across Arizona on
Tuesday. Moisture profiles continue to show that most of the
humidity will stay above 700mb, and despite modest QG forcing
there will be no chance for rain even over higher terrain areas
east of Phoenix. Despite the mainly high cloud cover, look for
highs across south central Arizona to climb slightly and reach
into the upper 70s over warmer locations under weak warm advection
ahead of the passing low. Phoenix should see a high near 78 on
Tuesday and this will likely be the warmest day of the week.

A weak shortwave ridge will follow Tuesday`s system and pass
overhead Wednesday keeping high temperatures mostly in the mid 70s
over the warmer deserts. Expect increasing high clouds during the
day ahead of a stronger system expected to pass through the area
Thursday.

Operational and ensemble guidances has been trending a bit stronger
and deeper with a progressive upper trof slated to move east and
across the desert southwest Wednesday night and Thursday. Although
the GFS still remains a bit weaker and flatter with the system
compared to the ECMWF, the ECMWF and NAEFS guidance suggest a
slightly deeper and wetter system that has potential to bring a few
showers to the lower deserts as well as the higher terrain. Mid
level Q forcing is still modest and more over northern Arizona, but
the upper jet will cut through central Arizona giving some support
to this system, and we have raised POPs slightly -  keeping them in
the slight chance category but adding rain chances into portions of
the lower deserts. This fits well with our neighbors, especially
Tucson, who have raised their numbers slightly. Look for a cooldown
with this system, due both to lowering heights but also increased
cloud cover and possible showers. Highs in the Phoenix area should
fall to around 70.

For the remainder of the forecast period, Friday and Saturday, we
are still looking at a rather progressive and fast flow off of the
Pacific as short wave energy moves quickly east across the desert
southwest. Overall the pattern still appears to be dry for our area
and this is supported by various MOS guidance as well as NAEFS POPs.
We will keep some single digit POPs in the forecast but no mention
or precip after Thursday night. Look for highs to continue trending
slightly downward with cooler deserts falling into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL...
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will be light
and follow normal diurnal headings. Due to light wind speeds,
extended periods of variable winds will be likely. There is
some haziness due to the wildfires in California and this should
hold through the TAF period and could potentially cause some
slantwise visibility concerns. In addition, mid- and upper- level
clouds will start to move into the western TAF sites tomorrow
morning and afternoon, with this cloudiness than making its way
eastward into the Phoenix TAF sites late Monday evening.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
For the most part, dry westerly flow aloft will dominate the desert
southwest, but there will be a slow increase in moisture through the
period. A couple of fast moving weather systems will pass through
the districts. The first one passing through Tuesday will be a dry
system, but will lead to a slight increase in RHs. The second is
forecast to move through Thursday and this one may have enough
moisture to bring a slight chance of wetting rains. High
temperatures a few degrees above normals Tuesday and Wednesday will
cool down some starting Thursday. Minimum RH values in the deserts
mostly 15 to 20 percent on Tuesday will rise into the 30s starting
Thursday. Winds should be on the light side each day only weakly
following typical diurnal tendencies.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hernandez
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

 520 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

...Aviation Discussion Update for 00Z TAFs...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

It was a cloudy, cold, wet day across the area with temperatures
in the 30s, drizzle/light rain and north winds. Temps have moved
very little today with the freezing line currently from Joplin to
Bolivar to Versailles. Most of the precip was occuring south of
the freezing line however some patchy freezing drizzle has
occurred at times today north of this line. Shortwave trough was
still located well west of the area with extensive cloud back into
central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Forecasted RAP soundings for the area through the evening hours
continue to show a saturated layer from the surface to 2km with
virtually no cloud ice. 925 and 850mb omegas are maxed out across
southern Missouri therefore widespread drizzle will continue for
most of the evening across the area, especially along the I-44
corridor and to the south. Given the current position of the
freezing line, some patchy freezing drizzle may be possible
briefly this evening in a narrow corridor from Joplin to
Stockton/Bolivar and up to Versailles, basically on the western
edge of the drizzle shield. Given relatively warm ground and road
temps, not expecting any impacts however will need to monitor
elevated surfaces and perhaps bridge decks, especially if temps
cool more than forecast. Temps overall should hold steady given
expansive cloud cover, and have used a blend of the RAP and HRRR
for cloud coverage tonight, keeping the area overcast all the way
through mid morning Tuesday, when the trough finally passes
through. Stratus build down and pockets of heavier drizzle will
allow visibilities to drop to less than a mile at times in the fog
tonight. Given the expansive cloud cover, went on the warm side
of guidance for lows tonight with coolest readings west of SGF and
warmest readings east.

Skies should clear from west to east Monday morning with afternoon
highs climbing into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Northwest flow will persist through the week with dry conditions
expected through Thursday. Temperatures will drop back a bit for
Tuesday but will rebound nicely by Wednesday and Thursday with
highs approaching 60. Models are consistent that a shortwave will
approach from the west on Friday which will bring the next chance
of rain. Models diverge drastically beyond Friday as the ECMWF
digs a deep trough into the southwest on Saturday and Sunday with
strong surface cyclogenesis taking place to our southwest. The
GFS on the other hand is much more progressive and open with the
wave however it is trending more towards a surface low to our
south. This will be something to watch over the next 3-5 days to
see if models can come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

A system is currently spreading across the region early this
evening. The Showers and drizzle associated with the system are
currently spreading east into the eastern Ozarks. Some drizzle
will still be possible at the TAF sites this evening, but overall
the better chances will be east of the TAF sites across the
eastern Ozarks.

IFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail across the area this evening
and tonight. Ceilings will then gradually improving Monday
morning from west to east. Patchy fog will also occur at times
this evening and tonight.

Winds will be light and variable this evening and tonight, then
will become westerly during the day Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise