Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/19/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
650 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure off the SC coast will continue to develop overnight bringing extensive cloud cover and a few areas of light rain. On Monday the disturbance will move northward away from the region as the next weak cold front approaches from the west. The cold front with limited moisture will cross the region early Tuesday. High pressure will dominate during the middle of the week with unsettled weather returning next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A weak surface low will continue to develop along SC coast and lift northward overnight. This will allow for isentropic lift over the surface ridge located along the SC and NC Piedmont. Expect broken or overcast skies through Monday morning. The RAP indicates an increase in isentropic lift this evening into early Monday morning along the eastern FA. This will lead to areas of light rain across the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee regions. The HRRR has also been consistently indicating some activity in this area, increasing confidence. Rainfall amounts should remain light with only a shallow warm cloud layer and minimal instability above the inversion. Moisture becomes more shallow after midnight and should cause any lingering activity to diminish. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees. Abundant low level moisture should allow for low clouds and some fog, reducing visibilities for the Monday morning commute. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... There will be a chance for lingering showers across the eastern Midlands early Monday morning due to a coastal trough. The chance for showers will diminish by mid morning as the trough moves farther offshore and weak high pressure builds over the region. An approaching cold front will move into the Upstate Monday night and reach the forecast area around daybreak Tuesday. The best dynamics will remain north of the area so have continued with a dry forecast. The cold front will reach the coast by early afternoon with high pressure along with colder and drier air returning to the region for Tuesday night. High temperatures will be in the 60s Monday and Tuesday then cool to the 50s Wednesday. Nighttime lows will be near 50 Monday night then in the 30s Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure over the region will keep dry weather in place Thursday into Friday. Our next storm system will develop over the central Plains Thursday night then move rapidly eastward through the day Friday. Clouds and gradually deeper moisture will return ahead of this system Friday, with the best moisture and forcing for showers Friday night into Saturday. Although models differ on the position and intensity of the low pressure system...there is agreement on moisture for showers Friday night and Saturday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the storm system lifting north of the region with dry conditions returning for Sunday. Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak surface low along the coast will slowly be moving northward overnight. This low as allowing low-level moisture to move into the eastern Midlands and CSRA, with vfr strato-cu deck across that region. Additional moisture will be moving inland through the night, and models showing ceilings lowering to mvfr and then ifr by morning. Increase in moisture and cool overnight temperatures will allow for areas of ifr/lifr fog to develop towards sunrise Monday morning across the region. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then become westerly through the day Monday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Thursday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1018 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds Moves east into the Canadian Maritimes tonight with low pressure tracking across the Gulf of Maine on Monday. The low will exit quickly into the Maritimes Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1010 PM Update: Temps cont to be a challenge across the N and E and we cont to lower fcst lows across the N, particularly ovr vly areas where near calm winds with remnant arctic air still in place has allowed an arctic sfc base invsn to form ovr these areas. Fcst lows have been posted in the 1 to 2 am tm frame, with increasing cld cvr from the SW later tngt xpctd to neutralize and eventually reverse the fall of temps from SW to NE across the FA. Otherwise, only minor chgs made to increase fcst cld cvr for the late ngt into erly morn hrs Mon. Orgnl Disc: Another very cold night in store tonight with some snow for Monday. High pres will be to the east tonight w/a light s flow setting up. Decided to lean w/a blend of the RAP and GEM for the overnight temps.Mostly clear skies initially w/temperatures expected to drop sharply into the single numbers across much of Aroostook County and portions of northern Somerset and Piscataquis counties as a strong inversion sets up. Both guidance appear to be handling the current setup well per the last 3 hr trend. It looks like low/mid teens further south, even some inland areas of the coast. Given this set up, cannot rule out a some subzero readings in the Allagash Valley and river valleys especially with the snow cover in place. Increasing mid/high level clouds will move in overnight capping temps by before sunrise. A disturbance, in the form of a weak low moves up from the sw along a developing coastal front later tonight into Monday. Clouds are expected to low and thicken overnight especially s of a Bangor to Calais line later overnight with some light snow developing along the coast by pre-dawn hrs on Monday. Could be seeing close to an inch of snow along coastal Hancock County by daybreak Monday. The low is forecast to move quickly across the Gulf of Maine w/snow gradually spreading nne during the day. This is a fast moving system given the broad upper flow. Some warmer air looks like it could make it into immediate coast w/snow mixing w/or changing to rain cutting down on snowfall amounts. The 12z GEM, GFS, ECMWF and the respective ensembles show this warmer air making to the coast. The outlier is the NAM as it keeps the coastal front off the coast, allowing for colder air to hang on along the coast, and therefore all snow. This in turn would mean more snow accumulation. Attm, decided to lean away from the colder NAM and bring some warmer air to the coast allowing for a mix/or changeover to rain. Decided to go at w/1-3 inches of snow for the coast and lesser amounts toward Bangor and Calais. This matches up w/the latest snowfall probabilities from Weather Prediction Center(WPC). Across the north and west, a weak cold front is expected to apch that region in the afternoon w/some snow showers expected and minor accumulations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At the start of the period a low will be moving into the Bay of Fundy. A cold front will be moving into northern Maine. Early Tuesday morning the low will move east into the Maritimes, the cold front will east into New Brunswick. Higher pressure will ridge into Northern Maine as another low tracks into southwestern Gulf of Maine Tuesday morning. Tuesday evening the low will track east to Southwestern Nova Scotia. Good general agreement that the low will bring snow into Downeast and into the Southern Aroostook and Central Highlands. This low will clear the area early Wednesday morning, another low will move south of the Hudson Bay area into the Great lakes region. This low will exit into The Gulf of Maine near Portland Wednesday afternoon and will be in the Gulf of Maine south of Bar Harbor by the end of the period. Used a blend of the GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/Winds/POP used the PoP sky consistency tool. Used consall for QPF and QPFPoP consistency tool. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used the GYX wind tool for gusts. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The start of the extended period will find a low tracking east across the northern Gulf of Maine. There will be a deep low well east of the area in the Canadian Maritimes. A Canadian High pressure ridge will be digging south from the west of Hudson Bay south through the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf of Mexico. This high pressure ridge will build east and will move across western Maine Thursday evening. The high will build through Maine into the Atlantic early Saturday morning. A deepening low over Southern Canada west of Lake Superior with a cold front extending into the Gulf of Mexico early Saturday morning will move east. The cold front will move into Western Maine Sunday morning and will affect the area through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out differences. Used NAWAVE4 for seas. Used the GYX wind tool for gusts. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions tonight w/tempo MVFR for KFVE early this evening w/a few snow showers. MVFR cigs expected later tonight for KBGR and KBHB w/snow. IFR for KBGR/KBHB on Monday w/snow or a mix. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR across the northern TAF sites by mid to late morning w/some light snow especially for KHUL. SHORT TERM: Unsettle weather will persist across the region through much of the period. Cloudy skies with CIG and VSBY generally MVFR across northern Maine, IFR conditions for BGR and BHB as a low moves from the Gulf of Maine into the Bay of Fundy early in the period, improving to MVFR early Tuesday morning. IFR conditions will return for BGR and BHB late Tuesday morning as another low tracks into the Gulf of Maine. MVFR conditions will return early Wednesday morning as the low track east into New Brunswick. MVFR conditions will continue with brief periods of IFR in snowshowers for BHB and BGR into Thursday morning. Higher pressure will build into Maine Thursday morning conditions will improve to VFR through the end of the period. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines expected into Monday. SW winds of 10 kt are forecast to switch to the NNW on Monday as the low passes by. Seas 2-3 ft to gradually build to 3-4 ft by late in the day on Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through the short term period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...VJN/Norton Marine...VJN/Norton
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
954 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The region will remain situated between high pressure and a coastal trough until a cold front moves through by mid week. High pressure will prevail mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 945 PM: KCLX certainly detected less coverage than it did early this evening. However, another patch of light rain has formed over the near shore waters, should slide over the SC coast over the next hour. I will maintain the current PoP trend. The primary forecast challenge will be the fog potential overnight. Areas outside the rounds of light rainfall will likely remain less mixed. In fact, the HRRR indicates that sfc condensation pressure deficits will fall will fall below 1mb late tonight across SE GA and portions of the SC Lowcountry. This is very a very strong signal for dense fog. I will increase the mention of fog across SE GA and SC counties along the Savannah River to areas of fog. As of 635 PM: A large area of stratus will persist within an inverted surface trough across the forecast area. In addition, scattered to numerous light showers will likely continue across the SC Lowcountry tonight, then move off shore after sunrise Monday. MOS indicates that cloud based will lower and patchy fog will become common across SE GA and portions of SC. I will update the forecast to adjust fog timing and placement. As of 535 PM: KCLX continued to show a large area of light showers across the SC Lowcountry. Near term guidance indicates that the light rain will continue through most of the night. However, rainfall totals are forecast to favor amounts of a quarter inch or less. I will update the forecast to increase sky, extended the period of likely PoPs over the SC Lowcountry and shorten over SE GA. Previous Discussion: Moisture convergence enhanced by a surface trough will maintain a pool of PWAT values around 1 inch along the coast and adjacent coastal waters, and this scenario will support showers of varying coverage which will continue to stream onshore and into areas mainly north of I-16 and east of I-95 through tonight. With time, the trough and associated pool of enhanced moisture will gradually advance toward the N/NE, and the focus of showers will shift N/NE accordingly. Expect near term adjustments to PoPs as this precip event evolves tonight. Later tonight, light winds, low temp/dewpoint spreads and the potential for some clearing could support area of fog, especially along/west of I-95. Ongoing forecasts indicate patchy fog in this area, but more significant/widespread fog could develop late tonight into early Monday. Low temps should range from the upper 40 far inland to around 60 on the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lingering rain chances associated with a coastal trough will continue through Monday morning then diminish as the trough axis pushes offshore in the afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail thereafter. A cold front push offshore Tuesday afternoon with a reinforcing northeast flow setting up Tuesday evening. Westerly flow ahead of the frontal surface will prevent moisture transport out of the Gulf of Mexico, so the front looks to pass through rain-free with just an increase in cloudiness. Cool, high pressure will prevail Wednesday as an inland wedge begins to take shape. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, then cool to the lower-mid 60s, except upper 60s along the Altamaha River by Wednesday. Lows will range from the lower-mid 50s Monday Night with lower 40s inland to the upper 40s/lower 50s coast Tuesday Night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry conditions will prevail behind the front, with a minor cooldown before moderating into late week. Model divergence increases by the end of the week. Onshore flow and increasing moisture levels will set the stage and a developing coastal trough or possible surface low could provide the forcing for precipitation production heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Flight conditions will deteriorate across the terminals tonight. A large area of stratus will persist within a inverted surface trough across the forecast area. In addition, scattered to numerous light showers will likely continue across the SC Lowcountry tonight, then move off shore after sunrise Monday. MOS indicates that cloud based will lower to LIFR and possibly VLIFR at KSAV late tonight. The onset of light NW winds during the mid morning should advect drier air across the region. VFR conditions are forecast to develop during the mid day. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: The shifting position of the ongoing surface trough over coastal waters will determine wind direction, with E/NE winds 10-15 kt west of the trough axis closer to shore and over Charleston Harbor and E/SE winds 10-15 kt east of the trough axis 10-15 miles and farther off the coast. Seas of 3-5 ft will prevail and will include a 9-10 second period swell from the ESE. Monday through Wednesday: Offshore winds will prevail through the period. Winds are expected to turn northeast Tuesday Night and continue through Wednesday as a secondary surge works south down the coast in the wake of a cold front. Winds will remain less than 15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Thursday through Saturday: Better model agreement indicates that a tightening pressure gradient Thursday afternoon into Friday evening could result in winds and seas reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria. Unfortunately, forecast uncertainty continues to decrease late in the week as model guidance diverges regarding formation and evolution of low pressure. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...NED/ST MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
915 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Surface observations show fog, occasionally dense, has developed at Fairfield and Ottumwa over the past hour. This was in an area of deeper snow that has contributed to temperatures plunging into a 10 to 15 degree range already this evening due to light winds and clear skies. With light south to southwest winds and weak low level warm advection developing in this area overnight, at least patchy fog looks possible along the axis of last night`s heavier snow over SE Iowa into the IL I-80 corridor. SREF fog probs and the HRRR backing up this scenario. However, with incoming high clouds from the NW, confidence is not high and thus have updated the forecast for only patchy fog wording in this area for late tonight into early Monday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Despite plenty of sunshine across most of the cwa today temperatures have been quite cold, thanks to snow cover over most of the area, clearly seen on visible satellite. Mid afternoon readings were in the 20s to lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Tonight: High pressure will settle into the area this evening, allowing for clear skies and light winds. This should drop temperatures into the teens to around 20. These readings are a few degrees colder than superblend due to the snow cover. Later tonight the high begins to shift eastward and south winds return, especially west of the MS River. There may also be some increase in cirrus clouds. Temperatures should steady out or actually rise a bit later tonight in our western counties. Monday: Skies will be mostly cloudy as a short wave trough drops southeast across the Midwest. Moisture looks limited and some models suggest a few snow showers are possible in our eastern counties. Have added a small pop for late in the afternoon with this trough. Associated with this trough will be a cold front pushing across the cwa during the day. There may be some flurries behind this front but will not mention in the grids for now. Ahead of the front, temperatures should "warm" briefly into the 30s to around 40 with a south-southwest wind. Winds turn northwest with the passage of the front. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Chance of rain late in the new week with some models hinting at a possible snow storm about November 26. Monday night and Tuesday: Another shot of cold air as arctic high pressure builds into the area. Lows will be in the teens to around 20 with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Wednesday through Saturday: Major pattern change to a deepening trough in the Rockies, and a long wave trough arriving into the Midwest by late in the week. This will allow for a nice warm-up and any snow left on the ground will have melted by Wednesday. This trough should spread rain into the area Friday into Friday night. With a decent storm system tracking across the upper Midwest there should be a tight gradient with a southerly flow in place on Friday. I did raise winds somewhat with gusts to 20-25 knots, compared to the superblend which seemed too weak. However, there is still plenty of room to raise winds even higher, for later shifts to monitor model trends. Highs during this time frame should push well into the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the 30s. This will at least get our cwa back to normal temperatures, if not somewhat above normal for a change. Sunday into the early part of week 2: Too early for details but the ECMWF/Canadian hint at a possible snow storm for our area, while the GFS is much weaker with this system. As of this writing confidence is low but certainly something to monitor. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) ISSUED AT 537 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Clear skies and light winds will keep VFR conditions in place tonight as high pressure exits to the east. Monday will see increasing cloudiness and light south to southwest winds veering to northwest with the passage of a weak cold front. This front is expected to be dry, outside a few flurries. Lowering clouds will likely lead to MVFR ceilings by late afternoon at CID, DBQ and MLI. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Sheets SYNOPSIS...Haase SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Sheets
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
448 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Remaining rather cold through mid-week, then temperatures warming to above normal through next weekend. The persistent upper pattern that`s been in place for the first half of November is forecast to break down during the period. The central North American longwave trough will weaken and shift east as a more progressive regime from the Pacific spreads inland. The pattern is expected to eventually evolve toward a more split flow regime. Temperatures will remain below normal through mid-week, begin warming on Thanksgiving Day, then reach above normal for the remainder of the holiday weekend. A couple light precipitation events are likely during the week. A system affecting the area next weekend looks like a little better precipitation producer, though temperatures will probably be mild enough for rain or a wintry mix by that point. Precipitation amounts are likely to be AOB for the period. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface high pressure stretching from the central Plains to the southern Great Lakes, and a cold front extending from North Dakota to just northwest of Lake Superior early this afternoon. Skies are mostly clear across most of the region, except for an area of strato-cu near the U.P. border. Light snow is occurring along and behind the cold front from northern Minnesota into southern Canada. As this front slowly sags south tonight, snow potential and amounts are the main forecast concerns. Tonight...The cold front is projected to reach southern Lake Superior by around 03z and northern WI by 06z. Dry air in the low and mid-levels should hold off precip from developing early in the evening, but the latest guidance insists on saturating soundings sufficiently for snow in the 04-06z time period over far northern WI. Though snow should start out relatively light, expect snow intensities to pick up some overnight when shortwave energy approaches from the northwest and a weak surface low moves into northern WI. The light snow is projected to drift south gradually overnight, but most models keep the southern edge north of Green Bay, Stevens Point, and Wisconsin Rapids by 12z. Accumulation- wise, a dendritic growth zone nearing 100mb deep should allow for relatively high snow ratios over northern WI, which could lead to 1-2 inches by 12z Mon. Temps do not look to fall as much as last night due to the cloud cover, and lows should only fall into the mid teens north to the mid 20s near the Lake. Monday...The cold front will continue to sag slowly southeast and exit east-central WI around the early afternoon hours. With shortwave energy still to pass across the region, light snow will likely continue for much of the morning, with some snow moving into northeast WI and the Fox Valley by mid-morning. Another half inch to an inch appears possible from Wausau to the Door Peninsula through noon, while models indicate amounts under a half inch remains the most likely scenario over the Fox Valley and east- central WI. As the shortwave exits and the front moves into southeast WI, snowfall is expected to end during the afternoon, with little to no additional accumulations likely. High temps ranging from the mid 20s in the north to low 30s south. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 159 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Scattered snow showers could linger over north-central and east- central Wisconsin Monday evening. Wind back pretty quickly, so the lake-effect potential in the north will be limited. The gradual weakening/progression of the large scale upper trough will commence by Tuesday, so the next shortwave digging southeast from Canada will pass farther northeast of the area (compared to tonight`s system). Chance PoPs across the north seem adequate. It is even possible a little FZRA/FZDZ could develop near the back edge of the precipitation. With the subsequent anticyclone passing north of the area, easterly winds could bring some flurries to east-central Wisconsin late Wednesday night or Thanksgiving morning. The details of the system likely to affect the area next weekend are still unclear, though that`s not surprising this far in advance. Temperatures should warm enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall as liquid over most of the area, through the north could still be susceptible to a wintry mix. But in any case, it does not appear likely to be a major storm. No significant changes were necessary to the standard forecast initialization grids. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 448 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 A cold front will approach from the north late tonight into Monday morning, leading to MVFR/IFR conditions beginning at RHI around 06Z. The potential for sub-VFR conditions is anticipated to slowly shift south and east to the remaining TAF sites between 12-15Z Monday. The chance for snow will diminish Monday afternoon as the cold front sinks south with some LES across the far north as winds turn northerly. Snowfall around 1-3 inches is possible north of Merrill and Antigo by midday Monday, while amounts under an inch is expected south of Wausau and Sturgeon Bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Skowronski AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
825 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak ridge of high pressure will briefly build into the region today before sliding offshore. A weak area of low pressure will track across southern New England and the Gulf of Maine tonight into the day Monday. This disturbance will produce a light snowfall from southern New Hampshire across the coastal plain of Maine late tonight into the day Monday. Another area of low pressure will pass south of the region Tuesday. An Arctic front will cross the region Wednesday, followed by high pressure building into the region through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Update...Crystal clear over NErn portions of the forecast area at this hour are allowing temps to crash into the single digits around Jackman. This will be short lived low to mid level moisture is streaming in quickly from the W. The recent runs of the HRRR actually have a good handle on the evolution...albeit a little too slow with the timing. Once these clouds arrive...temps should steady and then begin to slowly creep up in the Nrn zones. But until then I have updated temps to be more reflective of current conditions. Previous discussion...Clouds will continue to thicken and lower over souther portions of New Hampshire and southwestern Maine this evening. This cloud cover will be in advance of a weak and fast moving short wave racing through the base of the large scale cyclonic flow aloft. Weak warm air advection and corresponding very weak surface low will allow for echoes to continue to expand eastward per latest radar imagery. Light precipitation will slide into New Hampshire this evening. However in much of the forecast area, the lower and middle column of the atmosphere remains very dry, so sublimation is expected early this evening. In any case, light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow spreads east during the night. Partly cloudy conditions in northern areas may allow temperatures to drop into the teens overnight. With clouds over the south, readings will be much milder, most likely in the 20s to near 30 near the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Weak system and limited support race eastward on Monday, bringing the snow to an end from west to east during the day. Boundary layer temperatures may be sufficiently mild enough during the morning and midday hours for the precipitation to mix with rain. This may occur as the precipitation becomes very light across the region. Moisture shifts east during the afternoon and out of the region, exiting the Penobscot Bay region last. Preliminary snowfall forecast expected to be in the 1 to 2 inch region with locally some locations near 3 inches. As the whole frontal system exits the region, its southward push will be limited. Therefore, clearing will be limited. In fact, expect an increase and thickening of clouds once again Monday night ahead of next approaching system to our south. Light precipitation may break out once again in the fast flow as low pressure begins to take shape off the southern New England coastline. High resolution meso models bring light snow back to southernmost portions of the forecast area after midnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Update...Based on latest trends in model guidance I have increased PoP and snowfall for Tue across much of the forecast area. Models are beginning to come to a consensus of weak low pressure tracking just S of the forecast area...with a fairly robust precip shield to the N of it. The 18.18z NAM and GFS agree with the 18.12z CMC in placement of the H8 warm front and associated frontogenesis as WAA increases ahead of the developing surface low. More or less paralleling the ME coast and cutting across Srn NH...the agreement is rather remarkable. While the resolution is not as good in AWIPS...the 18.12z ECMWF I can infer has the best mid level forcing farther SE than the rest of the model suite. Even so the ECMWF EPS has nearly every member with at least 2 inches thru Srn NH and coastal Wrn ME...with roughly 20 percent of members showing 6 inches or so. Without getting too bullish...I have used the probability matched mean QPF blended with WPC...consensus wet bulb temps aloft...snow ratios...and PoP. The wx grids that fall out of that are mostly snow...with some rain mixing in near the coast and parts of SErn NH. I could see a little more mix in the form of sleet for parts of Srn NH if a more amplified solution like the NAM were to play out. Resulting snowfall is now a widespread 2 to 4 inches across most of the forecast area S of the mtns. Previous discussion...Models continue to differ on track and intensity of low pressure passing offshore on Tuesday. GFS keeps the system closer to the coast and slightly deeper while ECMWF farther offshore and weaker. In any case...event still looking rather benign with accumulations along the coast probably falling in the 1 to 3 inch range with lesser amounts to the north. GFS seems to be trending toward the ECMWF solution so these amounts may still be on the high side. High temperatures will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s in the north and mid to upper 30s in the south. Snow will wind down Tuesday evening as low pressure heads into the maritimes. Increasing northwest flow will clear skies downwind of the mountains by late evening as clouds and a few flurries persist in the north. Will see another night of below normal temps with lows ranging through the teens to near 20 along the coast. Arctic front will push south through the region on Wednesday bringing another blast of unseasonably cold air into the northeast. Weak wave on the front will push snow showers and squalls into the Connecticut Valley during the early afternoon and this activity will traverse southern zones through the evening hours. Models continue to show light QPF with this system but could see a quick inch or two in Squalls which will likely impact the evening commute in larger population centers of southern New Hampshire and Maine. May have a chance to try out the "new for this season" snow squall warnings. Highs on Wednesday will range through the 20s north and in the lower to mid 30s in the south. Snow showers will quickly end Wednesday evening as the front pushes offshore and brisk northwest flow kicks in behind. Looking for clearing downwind of the mountains and clouds and flurries in the north. Low temperatures by Thanksgiving morning will range from 5 to 10 above north to the lower to mid teens south. High pressure building in from the west will keep a brisk northwest flow going across the region for the Thanksgiving holiday. High temperatures will be well below normal with highs only in the teens north and lower to mid 20s south. Very frigid temperatures on tap for Thursday night as high pressure cresting overhead allows for good radiational cooling. Lows will range through the single numbers in interior sections to the lower teens along the coast. Upper level ridge will build in from the west for the end of the week as surface high slides offshore. Weak over-running will bring variable cloudiness for much of the day along with moderating temps. High temps will range through the 20s to lower 30s. High pressure will continue to drift off to the east Friday night as upper ridge crests over the area. looking for partly cloudy skies overnight with lows once again below normal. Lows will generally range through the teens. Big differences between models for the weekend with GFS pumping out nearly a foot of rain from Sunday into Monday while ECMWF keeping most of this moisture to the south of the forecast area. Needless to say...will be sticking close to SB numbers for the latter half of the forecast. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR northern locations with MVFR conditions expected in light snow over far southern areas tonight into Monday. Conditions improve Monday afternoon, before ceilings lower once again later Monday night ahead of the next system. Long Term... MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby Tuesday....becoming VFR Tuesday night. VFR Wednesday with areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby in afternoon and evening snow showers and Squalls. VFR Wednesday night through Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Relatively weak surface flow will allow for winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds in the near/short term portion of the forecast. Long Term... SCA`s may be needed Tuesday and again Wednesday night and Thursday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
947 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley will bring a chance of precipitation to the region tonight into Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the region through mid week, leading to dry conditions and a gradual warmup through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Rain across southern Illinois will spread east northeast into the forecast area late tonight ahead of an area of low pressure. HRRR and RAP trends have been to bring this shield of precipitation including the axis of highest amounts further north. Thus have adjusted PoPs accordingly. In addition, have bumped PoPs up and they may still need to go higher. Some snow will occur on the northern edge of the precipitation and would not be surprised if somewhere in west central Ohio gets up to a half inch around daybreak. Only minor adjustments to lows overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As the s/w swings through the Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, the sfc low will cross through srn Ohio. Precipitation will continue until the low passes. Similar to Sunday night, the majority of the pcpn will be rain, except on the northern edge where cooler air will produce a rain/snow mix in the morning. Highs will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in the far south. By Monday night the initial s/w will be east of the region in the Appalachians. However, a digging longwave trof will swinging through the Great Lakes. This will keep upper support and therefore will delay the exiting of the pcpn to the east. A rain/snow mix will linger in the east for much of the night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level disturbance will be moving through at the start of the long term period. Colder air will be working into the region and therefore expect primarily light snow showers across the region Tuesday morning. As the day progresses this feature pushes to the east and with a wind trajectory shift any lake enhancement will cut off. Cloud cover will decrease into the evening and overnight hours allowing for temperatures to fall down into the 20s Tuesday night. On Wednesday a weak frontal boundary will work into the area, however moisture is very limited with this feature and therefore do not expect any precipitation. High pressure will allow for continued dry conditions for Thursday and Thursday night. Late in the day Friday and moreso into Friday night precipitation will begin to work into the region as the next system approaches. Models are coming in quicker with this system overall, however there are more model timing difference today than yesterday. In general expect precipitation to be tapering down Saturday night. There are some model timing differences with the late weekend and into early next week system. With these differences decided to go closer to the ECMWF which would be a slower solution and allowed for dry conditions on Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ceilings will continue to lower ahead of a shield of precipitation. This will develop across the terminals after 06Z which will cause ceilings and visibilities to drop to IFR. As a weak surface low moves across the region on Monday, rain will come to an end. This will allow visibilities to improve but ceilings will remain IFR at most sites through the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Ceilings will improve to MVFR Monday night and then likely persist into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM... AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
745 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Area of light rain continues to move along and south of the I-70 corridor, and has reached close to the Wabash River. Based on the current trajectory and short-range models, have made some slight adjustments to the northern periphery of the PoP`s, nudging them north a tad. This will mostly be rain, but some light snow may mix in at times, especially after midnight. Further north, the clearing line made it to about a Macomb-Pontiac line, and has recent started to edge northward again. Latest HRRR analysis continues this trend, and skies there should become mostly cloudy again by after midnight. Temperatures in the far north, where the deeper snow cover is located, have dropped quickly. Made some downward adjustments to lows in that area, though temperatures should steady out once the clouds arrive. Updated grids/zones have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Clearing skies were steadily working se toward a Lacon to Macomb line at mid afternoon, with the overcast stratus deck southeast of this line. Bases of these low clouds ranged from 400 to 2000 ft. A light fog/haze remained east of I-55 at mid afternoon with vsbys of 4-6 miles. Radar mosaic shows an area of light rain showers over southern MO into sw IL (southeast of St Louis metro) and tracking ne toward Effingham. Temperatures at 3 pm ranged from around 32F from Macomb to Bloomington north, to the low to mid 40s in southeast IL from Mattoon and Paris southeast, with Lawrenceville at 47F. Surface map shows cold front extending from southeast Ohio through nw KY/TN into central AR with a weak 1020 mb surface low over central AR and another one along the western KY/TN border. Models take weak surface low pressure wave ne along the frontal boundary tonight and spread area of light rain showers ne across southeast IL late this afternoon and tonight. Some light snow could mix in with the light rain later this evening and overnight. Also patchy fog likely tonight from I-72 south where more low level moisture present and winds become light with lowering stratus deck. Models have trended a bit higher with lows tonight due to more low cloud cover. Lows to range from upper teens and lower 20s nw of Lincoln where there is some clearing for a time into this evening with clouds spreading back north during overnight, while milder low to mid 30s in southeast IL. Patchy fog and light pcpn to gradually diminish over southeast IL during Mon morning as weak low pressure pulls away into the eastern Ohio river valley by noon Mon and into the Virgina`s by sunset Mon. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies on Mon with cool highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s and west winds less than 10 mph. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 A large mid/upper level trof digs over the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley by Mon evening and slowly shifts eastward during Tue afternoon. A northern stream short wave diving se over the western Great Lakes by Mon evening could bring small chances of light pcpn to areas ne of Bloomington and Champaign Mon night. Lows Mon night range from lower 20s nw of the IL river, to the upper 20s to near 30F in southeast IL. 1030 mb high pressure extending from MO to TX will bring partly to mostly sunny skies on Tue to central and southeast IL but still cool highs in the mid 30s central IL and upper 30s southeast IL. High pressure settles into the mid MS river valley on Wed providing a fair amount of sunshine. Upper level ridge shifts eastward into the high plains on Wed as upper level trof retreats into eastern Canada and northeast US. Highs Wed in the lower 40s from I-74 ne and upper 40s sw cwa and southeast IL. Upper level ridge flattens somewhat as it shifts eastward into the MS river valley on Thu/Thanksgiving Day. Ample sunshine on Thu and southerly flow developing with highs in the mid to upper 40s central and ne CWA, with southeast IL and SW CWA having lower 50s. A digging upper level trof into the plains by sunrise Friday will move east toward the MS river by sunset Fri. This will likely spread rain showers eastward across IL during Friday and continue Fri night. Ecmwf and GEM models are still dry over IL on Fri morning while faster GFS spreads showers across IL during Fri morning. Followed consensus of models with low pops Fri morning and higher pops Fri afternoon into Fri night. Rain showers to diminish from west to east during Saturday as trof shifts into the eastern states. Highs Fri in the upper 40s and lower 50s and mainly lower 50s on Sat. Temps appear warm enough for pcpn to be rain with any mix of light snow staying north of CWA with this storm system late this week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Clearing line is struggling to get past KPIA, and will need to go with a TEMPO period for MVFR ceilings initially. The remaining TAF sites have seen ceilings creep up above 1,000 feet. Think these will start to lower again this evening, and IFR conditions will be widespread. No significant improvements are expected until around 12Z near KPIA, and toward midday elsewhere. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1105 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018 One last update to tweak overnight lows. Colder valleys have dropped into the upper 30s in several spots. But lower clouds are expanding so temperatures should level out from here and eventually increase towards dawn at those coldest locations. Also made slight adjustments to other grids to bring them in line with latest trends. UPDATE Issued at 941 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018 Beginning to see the development of some lower clouds over portions of the area, mainly in the north. Initial adjustments to overnight lows looks pretty good right now though we might see a spot or two squeak out some upper 30s. Updated sky grids and brought remaining grids in line with hourly trends. Did nudge back timing of PoPs (onset of light rain) through the predawn time frame just slightly based on the latest radar and HRRR trends. Otherwise the forecast package looks to be in good shape. Will take one last look at temps over the next hour or so but don`t expect much to change based on latest developments. If lower clouds continue to develop and expand across the area we may even see temps rebound just a bit leading up to sunrise. UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018 With the lack of more substantial cloud cover, temps have dropped fairly quickly with sunset and have already approached advertised lows (within a couple degrees already) at a few locations in our east. Typically short term hourly model output tends to perform a bit better than they have been thus far this evening. Consequently they were of little use with respect to initialization and instead made manual adjustments to the temps and dew points to better capture this evening`s hourly trends. Dropped some of our typically cooler valley locations a few degrees from our original forecasted overnight lows. Clouds are still expected to thicken up and lower late tonight. Feel latest adjustments capture the situation adequately, especially considering afternoon dew points only dropped into the low to mid 40s. Thus far it appears adjustments were not significant enough to warrant an update to the zone products but eventually will update anyway to freshen up wording. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 425 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018 20z sfc analysis shows a cold front located off to the northwest of the area with a weak low pressure wave along this boundary moving off to the northeast. While this resulted in some mainly high clouds through the day, temperatures still managed to climb into the upper 50s and low 60s for most places while dewpoints held generally in the lower 40s. Winds, meanwhile, where breezy from the south to southwest north and lighter from the south in the southern parts of the CWA. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a broad trough through the northeast half of the country deepening and shifting southeast into our area. Accompanying the height falls will be a band of energy cutting across eastern Kentucky in fast, flat flow on Monday with some trailing amounts inbound toward 12z Tuesday as the 5h trough axis swings into the Ohio Valley. Given the good model agreement have favored a blended solution with emphasis on the higher resolution NAM12 and HRRR for details. Sensible weather will feature slowly increasing and thickening clouds tonight - primarily and earliest in the northwest. As such, expect some river valley fog to be possible in the southeast parts of the area late tonight. To the northwest some light rain will be possible before dawn but the bulk of the area will remain dry. The front slips deeper into the area on Monday with mid range rain chances following. There does appear to be a split in the best QPF with a northern track favored initially then a pickup to the southeast as the cold front passes through later Monday - and into the night. With its passage, colder air will press into eastern Kentucky from the northwest leading to a small potential for a mix of snow towards dawn Tuesday in those places. However, it does appear that the ice crystals could be lacking so we may see more in the way of drizzle or sprinkles late Monday night with the sfc temperatures staying a couple of degrees above freezing. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for the grids with only minor adjustments for terrain or specific points each night. As for PoPs, did adjust them more toward the NAM12 for Monday with its splitting QPF scenario preferred. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018 Light rain and drizzle will be continuing to track east across eastern Kentucky Tuesday morning in a post-frontal airmass. A cold air advection and upslope regime will keep this in play into the afternoon along with abundant cloud cover, subsequently keeping temperatures generally in the low 40s for highs. Could end up seeing several spots struggle to hit 40 depending on exactly how long low clouds hold on. Surface ridging will build in later Tuesday into midweek as a Hudson Bay low brings another round of precipitation to the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. This system may bring some cloud cover across portions of the Big Sandy region and northeast Kentucky as northwest flow remains in place. A sprawling ridge will bring rising heights and clearing skies to eastern Kentucky for Thanksgiving into the end of the week as a southern stream system remains well to the south of the Tennessee Valley. This will result in high temperatures warming back into the 50s for the end of the week, before an upper trough moves across the Rockies and into the Great Plains. This feature will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward by Friday night into Saturday, leading to the next shot of rainfall across the Commonwealth. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 730 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018 VFR flight conditions will gradually drop into MVFR territory by dawn in our northwest, and the remainder of our area through the day Monday. By late in the forecast period CIGS will fall to IFR levels for KSYM and then the remainder of our terminals just beyond the end of the period, or Monday evening as a cold frontal boundary passes through the area. The regional mosaic radar shows some light echos out to our northwest but at this time expect little more than sprinkles are reaching the surface, if that. However, light rain will develop across our Bluegrass area by tomorrow morning and expand slowly southeastward through the day. Winds will continue to flow out of the south/southwest at 5 kts or less through the overnight. Some terminals will manage to go light and variable under a nocturnal inversion. But winds will increase again through the day Monday, 5 to 10 kts and become more westerly as a cold front first approaches and then passes across eastern Kentucky Monday evening, roughly between 22Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...RAY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
139 PM MST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain stationed over the area through the early portion of the week resulting in temperatures near or just above the seasonal average. A relatively dry storm system moves through the region around Thanksgiving bringing clouds and cooler conditions. There is a slight chance of showers to the deserts but best chances will likely be confined to the higher elevations north and east of Phoenix. Continue dry and cooler conditions area expected late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Flat ridging and dry westerly flow remains in place across the region. Current geocolor GOES-16 satellite imagery shows smoke from the wildfires in California making their way into our region and looking outside there is considerable haziness. In addition, the HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecast is showing this as well. Outside of this, dry conditions will prevail today with temperatures across the lower deserts in the 70s. Tomorrow, clouds (mainly mid and upper-level) will begin to increase from the west ahead of an approaching weather system. With very little low-level moisture associated with this system (PWATs mainly .5 inches), no rain is forecast and GEFS plumes continue to show zero QPF across our CWA. Despite the cloud cover, warm air advection ahead of the system will keep temperatures from cooling, with highs near or a degree warmer than what we are seeing this afternoon. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Model guidance remains very consistent in calling for a Pacific closed low to open up and quickly race east across Arizona on Tuesday. Moisture profiles continue to show that most of the humidity will stay above 700mb, and despite modest QG forcing there will be no chance for rain even over higher terrain areas east of Phoenix. Despite the mainly high cloud cover, look for highs across south central Arizona to climb slightly and reach into the upper 70s over warmer locations under weak warm advection ahead of the passing low. Phoenix should see a high near 78 on Tuesday and this will likely be the warmest day of the week. A weak shortwave ridge will follow Tuesday`s system and pass overhead Wednesday keeping high temperatures mostly in the mid 70s over the warmer deserts. Expect increasing high clouds during the day ahead of a stronger system expected to pass through the area Thursday. Operational and ensemble guidances has been trending a bit stronger and deeper with a progressive upper trof slated to move east and across the desert southwest Wednesday night and Thursday. Although the GFS still remains a bit weaker and flatter with the system compared to the ECMWF, the ECMWF and NAEFS guidance suggest a slightly deeper and wetter system that has potential to bring a few showers to the lower deserts as well as the higher terrain. Mid level Q forcing is still modest and more over northern Arizona, but the upper jet will cut through central Arizona giving some support to this system, and we have raised POPs slightly - keeping them in the slight chance category but adding rain chances into portions of the lower deserts. This fits well with our neighbors, especially Tucson, who have raised their numbers slightly. Look for a cooldown with this system, due both to lowering heights but also increased cloud cover and possible showers. Highs in the Phoenix area should fall to around 70. For the remainder of the forecast period, Friday and Saturday, we are still looking at a rather progressive and fast flow off of the Pacific as short wave energy moves quickly east across the desert southwest. Overall the pattern still appears to be dry for our area and this is supported by various MOS guidance as well as NAEFS POPs. We will keep some single digit POPs in the forecast but no mention or precip after Thursday night. Look for highs to continue trending slightly downward with cooler deserts falling into the 60s. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL... Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will be light and follow normal diurnal headings. Due to light wind speeds, extended periods of variable winds will be likely. There is some haziness due to the wildfires in California and this should hold through the TAF period and could potentially cause some slantwise visibility concerns. In addition, mid- and upper- level clouds will start to move into the western TAF sites tomorrow morning and afternoon, with this cloudiness than making its way eastward into the Phoenix TAF sites late Monday evening. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday: For the most part, dry westerly flow aloft will dominate the desert southwest, but there will be a slow increase in moisture through the period. A couple of fast moving weather systems will pass through the districts. The first one passing through Tuesday will be a dry system, but will lead to a slight increase in RHs. The second is forecast to move through Thursday and this one may have enough moisture to bring a slight chance of wetting rains. High temperatures a few degrees above normals Tuesday and Wednesday will cool down some starting Thursday. Minimum RH values in the deserts mostly 15 to 20 percent on Tuesday will rise into the 30s starting Thursday. Winds should be on the light side each day only weakly following typical diurnal tendencies. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hernandez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB AVIATION...Hernandez FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
520 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 ...Aviation Discussion Update for 00Z TAFs... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 It was a cloudy, cold, wet day across the area with temperatures in the 30s, drizzle/light rain and north winds. Temps have moved very little today with the freezing line currently from Joplin to Bolivar to Versailles. Most of the precip was occuring south of the freezing line however some patchy freezing drizzle has occurred at times today north of this line. Shortwave trough was still located well west of the area with extensive cloud back into central Kansas. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Forecasted RAP soundings for the area through the evening hours continue to show a saturated layer from the surface to 2km with virtually no cloud ice. 925 and 850mb omegas are maxed out across southern Missouri therefore widespread drizzle will continue for most of the evening across the area, especially along the I-44 corridor and to the south. Given the current position of the freezing line, some patchy freezing drizzle may be possible briefly this evening in a narrow corridor from Joplin to Stockton/Bolivar and up to Versailles, basically on the western edge of the drizzle shield. Given relatively warm ground and road temps, not expecting any impacts however will need to monitor elevated surfaces and perhaps bridge decks, especially if temps cool more than forecast. Temps overall should hold steady given expansive cloud cover, and have used a blend of the RAP and HRRR for cloud coverage tonight, keeping the area overcast all the way through mid morning Tuesday, when the trough finally passes through. Stratus build down and pockets of heavier drizzle will allow visibilities to drop to less than a mile at times in the fog tonight. Given the expansive cloud cover, went on the warm side of guidance for lows tonight with coolest readings west of SGF and warmest readings east. Skies should clear from west to east Monday morning with afternoon highs climbing into the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 Northwest flow will persist through the week with dry conditions expected through Thursday. Temperatures will drop back a bit for Tuesday but will rebound nicely by Wednesday and Thursday with highs approaching 60. Models are consistent that a shortwave will approach from the west on Friday which will bring the next chance of rain. Models diverge drastically beyond Friday as the ECMWF digs a deep trough into the southwest on Saturday and Sunday with strong surface cyclogenesis taking place to our southwest. The GFS on the other hand is much more progressive and open with the wave however it is trending more towards a surface low to our south. This will be something to watch over the next 3-5 days to see if models can come into better agreement. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Nov 18 2018 A system is currently spreading across the region early this evening. The Showers and drizzle associated with the system are currently spreading east into the eastern Ozarks. Some drizzle will still be possible at the TAF sites this evening, but overall the better chances will be east of the TAF sites across the eastern Ozarks. IFR to LIFR ceilings will prevail across the area this evening and tonight. Ceilings will then gradually improving Monday morning from west to east. Patchy fog will also occur at times this evening and tonight. Winds will be light and variable this evening and tonight, then will become westerly during the day Monday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Burchfield SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Wise