Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/01/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1126 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Weak wind shift line making its way south across northern lower
Michigan this evening, accompanied by a band of lake enhanced
strato-cu. Otherwise, deeper low level moisture rotating across
Lake Superior and central upper Michigan, with a just cool enough
shallow convective layer to drum up some very light lake effect
rain showers. Expect these clouds and isolated showers to impact
the favored lake effect areas of Chippewa county overnight. Partly
to mostly cloud skies expected across northern lower, with a
combination of high clouds and lake induced lower clouds to
continue.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
...Decent Trick-or-Treating Weather...
High Impact Weather Potential...None expected.
A weak surface area of high pressure will build into the region from
the west tonight which is good news for all the kiddies out and
about this evening. Meanwhile, continued weak cold air advection
will slowly increase over lake instability possibly leading to some
stratocu development toward morning. Even if that were to occur,
clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will lead to very good
radiational cooling conditions for much of the night. Therefore,
have lowered minimum temperatures for tonight by a few degrees with
the range now generally between the mid 20s inland to the mid 30s
near the lake shores. As a side note, likely a bit more clouds off
of Lake Superior for Chippewa County (partly to mostly cloudy) but
over lake instability appears to fall just short of actually
producing precipitation (something for the evening shift to keep an
eye on anyways).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
..Fairly quiet and cool...
High Impact Weather Potential...None.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Deep longwave troughing will establish
itself over the nation`s midsection as we close out the week. A
potent shortwave carving through the Southern Plains will eject a
surface low through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Weak surface high
pressure and drier air overhead should prevent this system from
having much, if any, impact on northern Michigan. Another shortwave
trough will slide through the region Friday night, also with little
fanfare given the dry air still in place. High pressure saddle point
will settle over the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday in between a
surface low over the Northeast and another over the Northern Plains,
allowing for continued quiet weather.
Primary Forecast Concerns...Precip potential with system passing by
to our southeast Thursday night. Light lake effect showers near
Saginaw Bay early Friday?
Starting to look more likely that Thursday-Thursday night`s system
sliding through the Ohio Valley will not have much, if any, impact
on northern Michigan. Recent model runs have yielded a little better
timing and track consensus. American guidance has held steadfastly
to a more easterly track, keeping any precip on the backside of this
low entirely out of northern Michigan. ECMWF and GEM signals have
been a little murkier for our area, but recent runs have shifted the
track slightly farther east. Have to think the dry air and high
pressure overhead is going to win out and keep the vast majority (if
not all) of our area dry. RAP and hires ARW/NMM add support to this.
Have cut back on PoPs quite a bit across northeast Lower, retaining
just slight chance near Saginaw Bay to still blend with neighboring
offices to the south. It`s possible this area may see some light
lake effect showers (sprinkles?) develop early Friday morning in NE
flow off Lake Huron as H8 temps cool to around -4C, producing
marginally supportive delta Ts.
Pretty quiet thereafter heading into the weekend for northern
Michigan with high pressure and dry air overhead. Temperatures will
be on a gradual cooling trend through the end of the week, but highs
will generally range from the low to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
High Impact Weather Potential...Some lake effect snow and gales not
out of the question, but considerable forecast uncertainty.
An active pattern looks on tap for the extended forecast period with
longwave troughing anchored over the central CONUS and several
potent shortwave troughs rotating around through it. However, model
spread is considerable through most of the period, resulting in low
forecast confidence with any system that would impact the Great
Lakes region. The first of these systems is a low progged to lift
into the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday, followed by another
potential low Monday night into Tuesday. This second low has a much
higher degree of uncertainty, but it looks like it will usher in a
considerably colder H8 airmass for the rest of the week. Possible
impacts heading into the second half of the week include some
accumulating lake effect snow and perhaps gales over a portion of
the lakes at times. Given the considerable model spread, it`s hard
to provide more specific details at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
VFR conditions as high clouds and relatively high based stcu/cu
traverse the taf locations. Will need to be on the lookout for a
period of MVFR cigs rotating off Lake Michigan early this morning
and off Lake Huron later today. Current trends support dry enough
low levels to keep cloud bases elevated. Light winds through the
period. No visibility restrictions expected as any rain looks to
fall across southern Michigan.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Continued small craft advisory through early Thursday on
Whitefish Bay for gusty west northwest winds. Fairly light winds
for much of Thursday with northeast winds picking up late in the
day on into Friday when advisories are possible, mainly on Lake
Huron.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1157 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure and surface cold extending from
the Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi will slide east and
reach Northwestern Pennsylvania by this evening. This front
will stall out early Thursday as it nearly bisects the state
stretching from the Poconos in the northeast to the Laurel
Highlands over southwestern Pennsylvania. A significant wave of
low pressure will move northeast along this stalled out boundary
later this week, reaching Pennsylvania on Friday. The southerly
wind in advance of the front will bring mild temperatures to
the area, along with periods of rain and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Brisk winds and cooler weather will follow for Saturday with
high pressure drifting overhead Sunday with lighter wind.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Radar shows impressive line of showers from SW PA all the way
to TX coast. Showers over our CWA mainly light to moderate and
widely scattered and short lived. HRRR and models show this
trend continuing overnight with only light QPF expected, all
ahead of more concentrated rains later tomorrow as deep moisture
moves into area. With thick clouds and moisture in place
temperatures will stay about the same overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Southwest flow at mid and upper levels, combined with the
presence of a narrow axis of approx +2 sigma PWAT air over
Central and SE PA, will help to transport moisture up and over
the quasi-stnry boundary tonight producing some periods of
showers - primarily over the NW third to half of PA. Otherwise,
expect a mainly cloudy and unseasonably mild night with min
temps 15 deg F or better above normal across all, except for
perhaps the far NW part of our CWA where shallow, cooler air
with temps in the 40-45F range will filter in behind the cfront.
Min temps across the region near, and to the south of
Interstate 80 will be in the low-mid 50s.
A high prob of over 0.25 inch of rain exists in the 12-hour
period ending 12Z Thursday, though the bulk of that QPF appears
to be centered after 06Z Thursday, as another pulse of LLJ
energy lifts NE into that region.
Little change in the target area for rain occurs on Thursday
with the likelihood for another 0.25 to 0.50 inch of QPF over
the NW mtns, while locations to the southeast of the I-81
corridor could escape with little if any rain through Thursday
evening. The north/south temp gradient across the frontal
boundary will increase on Thursday with maxes in the upper 40s
to around 50F across the northern tier of PA, and in the 60s to
near 70s across the southern half or so of the state, which will
be a good 6-10 deg F above normal in most places, and as much as
15 deg above normal across the Laurel Highlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term looks will see a continuation of the wet,
unsettled weather we`ve been seeing lately. Another wave of
steady rain will affect primarily the eastern half of
Pennsylvania Friday afternoon into Friday night, bringing
rainfall totals from the Thurs/Fri timeframe up to 1 to 2
inches for most of central PA /with locally higher amounts/.
High pressure will build into the region Sunday, giving us a
brief respite from the wet weather. However, easterly flow will
develop as this high retreats into the Canadian maritimes,
bringing clouds and a chance of rain back into central PA on
Monday.
It will remain showery into Tuesday, before a cold front
crosses the region by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A dying cold front will stall out over northern Pa tonight,
accompanied by occasional rain over the northwest half of the
state. A plume of moisture accompanying the front, combined with
orographic lift, will result in a high confidence of
predominantly ifr/lifr cigs tonight across the northwest
mountains (KBFD). South of the front, model guidance indicates
predominantly vfr conditions are likely over the southeast part
of the forecast area (KMDT/KLNS). In between, there is a fair
amount of uncertainty with regards to possible low cigs across
the central part of the state, all hinging on where the front
stalls out tonight.
Model soundings support predominantly vfr conditions across
southern Pa (south of the stalled front) on Thursday. Over
northern Pa, SREF/HREF probability charts support the idea of
morning low cigs, then modest improvement by afternoon.
Developing llws appears possible across the entire region
Thursday evening, as a core of strong winds aloft overspreads
the state in advance of low pressure lifting out of the Ohio
Valley. Also, deteriorating cigs and rain appear likely
Thursday evening across the northwest mountains, as the storm
approaches.
.Outlook...
Fri...Morning LLWS/TSRA possible. AM low cigs possible N Mtns.
PM rain/vis reductions possible southeast Pa. Evening low cigs
possible again W Mtns.
Sat...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Gusty WNW winds in the
afternoon/evening.
Sun...No sig wx expected.
Mon...Low cigs possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread soaking rain is expected to total 1-2 inches
from late tonight into early Saturday, with locally higher
amounts possible over the northern and eastern mountains. This
amount of rain will lead to significant rises on smaller streams
and creeks.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/RXR
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Lambert/RXR
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1024 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.UPDATE...
The cold front continues to move toward the Texas coast and radar
data also shows the more persistent shower and thunderstorm activity
is also moving to our east and south. We will keep the highest rain
chances for the next hour or so along the Highway 77 corridor south
of Highway 90 in proximity to the cold front. For the remainder of
the overnight hours into Thursday morning, we should see scattered
showers and storms move through the region from west to east. The
latest hi-res models, particularly the HRRR, are showing less
coverage of convection through tonight. With this in mind, we have
opted to decrease rainfall chances slightly tonight and will go with
mainly 30-50%. At this point, additional chances for severe weather
appear low, with mainly an elevated thunderstorm producing marginally
severe hail and wind being the main concern.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/
AVIATION...
TSRA line will continue to impact AUS through 01Z with -SHRA possible
near SAT/SSF/AUS as the line exits to the east. Disturbance moving
across the Big Bend is already aiding in the development supercells
across the higher terrain of Mexico and will have to watch DRT for
possible impacts if these are able to propagate near the terminal.
Have maintained VCTS between 04-10Z based on current development and
a consistent signal in the HRRR for this activity to make it to the
Rio Grande later tonight. -SHRA will be possible for the remainder of
the terminals through 06-08Z as this wave passes. VFR ceilings will
gradually transition to MVFR by 06-10Z as the post-frontal inversion
deepens and based on upstream observations across the Big Country
there is a low potential for high end IFR. Confidence is too low to
include mention in the TAF with this issuance but at least a TEMPO
group may be needed.
Otherwise, breezy northerly winds 10-20 knots will persist through
most of the TAF period but are expected to decrease by late afternoon
as a surface high slides into South Central Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 51 66 47 74 51 / 40 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 66 45 74 48 / 40 - 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 66 46 74 48 / 40 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 48 63 44 71 48 / 40 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 51 67 48 73 51 / 60 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 50 64 45 73 49 / 40 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 51 68 45 74 48 / 40 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 52 65 45 73 48 / 40 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 66 46 73 50 / 80 - 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 52 66 46 73 50 / 40 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 54 68 47 73 50 / 40 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
One or two locations across central ND have seen visibilities drop
down to a few miles, so the potential for fog overnight is there.
However, not expecting very widespread or particularly dense fog
tonight. Otherwise, lowered overnight lows across the Devils Lake
region by a couple of degrees. Adjusted precip chances slightly
for Thursday night based on recent guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Precipitation arrival tomorrow will be the main challenge for the
period.
West northwesterly flow aloft overnight with the surface ridging
over the area moving eastward. Stratus continues over much of the
northern and eastern TAF sites, but most of the models have some
break up of the cloud deck. Given the time of year and sat loop
showing only some minor erosion, am not optimistic but do have
some lowering of cloud cover overnight. A few of the high
resolution models develop some fog in the clearing areas with
light winds, but the HRRR and RAP keep vis up for much of the
night. Will keep an eye on things but will keep fog mention out
for now. Otherwise the night should be fairly quiet.
Tomorrow, the next clipper system will be digging down from
Canada. A fairly weak low pressure system will be moving into our
western CWA by afternoon. Some decent synoptic scale lift, along
with weak frontogenetical forcing should bring some pretty
high chances of precip into our western counties by afternoon.
Temperatures will start out near the 30 mark early in the morning
but there should be enough heating to get into the upper 30s and
40s by afternoon. Think that most of the precip will be rain
looking at model soundings, although cannot completely rule a few
flakes mixing in across the north early on. The HREF mean has
primarily rain with a few spots of snow in the north as the
precip comes in, so followed its trends. Rain amounts should be
fairly light and under a tenth of an inch through 00Z Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Fast moving clipper Thu night likely associated with very minor
accumulations will be followed by a system of more substance for
Sat. Low track of this one is likely to be farther south from
western ND through eastern SD. Much will depend on thermal profiles
but boundary layer temps will be above freezing over all but extreme
northern locations, so feel mostly rain with early morning and
evening snow or mix most likely. Parts of NW MN may pick up more as
the system wraps to the northeast Sat night perhaps dropping a non-
trivial accumulation of snow.
GEFS M-Climate, and ECMWF R-Climate along with GEFS plumes don`t
depict anything too much out of the ordinary with most ensemble
members offering an inch or less of snow for KGFK. More tranquil and
cool for Sun and Mon before another chance for what would be snow
Tue night or Wed. The ECMWF, in particular, keeps the track of this
storm well south over southern plains toward Ohio Valley, leaving
much less for our region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
MVFR to VFR conditions are prevailing across the region this
evening and will likely continue to improve during the overnight
hours as clouds slowly clear from west to east. Patchy fog may
impact the KDVL, KFAR, and possibly KGFK, during the early morning
hours tomorrow, but confidence in fog occurrence at the TAF sites
is too low to include in the TAFs at this time (but will update as
needed).
Clouds will roll back in tomorrow afternoon with VFR conditions
becoming MVFR by the evening. Rain is likely for all sites but
KBJI. Although brief drops to IFR are possible with any moderate
rainfall, confidence in IFR conditions is higher at KDVL for
tomorrow evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AM
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...AM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.AVIATION...
Drier air will continue to spread southeast behind today`s cold
front, resulting in a gradual improvement of ceilings across the
area. IFR conditions are still plaguing several locations in and
around the DFW Metroplex and should become MVFR shortly after
midnight, with MVFR cigs improving to VFR during the day Thursday.
Most of the precipitation has ended, though additional showers
may briefly impact KACT overnight as a shortwave trough moves
overhead. Otherwise, northwest winds of 10 to 15 KT will continue
overnight and Thursday before becoming light and variable late
Thursday evening.
30
&&
.UPDATE... /Issued 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/
Main update was to clean up short term PoP, Wx and Temperatures
grids to reflect ongoing trends. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast is in good shape.
Showers and storms continue to move south and east of North and
Central Texas with just some very light stratiform rain across
the Brazos Valley. Slightly more convective activity was noted
across the Concho Valley and southern parts of the Big Country and
is likely in response to upper level divergence spreading
northward out of the speed max now nosing in over the Big Bend of
Texas. As additional forcing arrives later tonight, there may be
enough for some slightly deeper convective elements and some hi-
res NWP does hint at this. I think the thunder potential is pretty
low, but for now, I`ll advertise just some isolated chances for
storms south of I-20 after midnight. There is a low threat for
some wrap-around precip across eastern parts of the Red River
Valley and I`ll hold on to a low chance for some rain showers.
Otherwise, cooler and drier air will continue to filter southward
into the region and temperatures were a few degrees lower than
previously thought. I trended mainly towards the HRRR for the the
temperature grids as it seems to have a good handle on the CAA.
Updated products have been transmitted.
Bain
&&
.DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/
Main focus is the potential for strong to severe storms, as well
as heavy rain and localized flooding over the next 3-5 hours
before today`s storm system exits to the east.
A surface cold front extends from roughly Canton to Groesbeck to
Temple as of 330 PM with a vigorous upper trough digging towards
the region. Ahead of this front, unseasonably warm and moist
conditions have contributed to large SBCAPE on the order of 2000
J/kg. Deep layer wind shear of 40+ kts will contribute to rotating
thunderstorms in this area through the evening, which will pose a
threat for some severe weather. Low-level wind fields across our
southeast counties have begun veering in the past hour or two, and
are limiting storm-relative helicity values slightly. As a
result, the tornado potential isn`t terribly high, but mini-
supercellular structures already observed today certainly suggest
a non-zero potential. Storm motion roughly parallel to the frontal
boundary is also contributing to storms becoming elevated rather
quickly, also limiting surface-based thunderstorm hazards. A
threat for hail will exist with stronger storms through late
afternoon and evening, including those elevated behind the front.
However, modest lapse rates through the mid-levels have limited
the hail threat thus far today. Otherwise, a threat for damaging
winds still exists with storms immediately along the front,
especially if any more robust segments can organize as the front
pushes east. The boundary is expected to push through the
remainder of the forecast area over the next 4-5 hours, ending
the tornado potential along with most of the severe weather
threat. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for our southeastern
zones through this evening, but will be trimmed accordingly as the
front moves through.
Aside from the severe potential, heavy rainfall and flooding is
also of concern, particularly across our southern and eastern
zones where training of convection may occur. Rain rates have not
been terribly high thus far, but it also won`t take a great deal
of rainfall to aggravate flooding issues given the antecedent
saturated soil conditions. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches can be
expected across our southern and eastern zones, while lighter
totals will occur the farther northwest one`s location.
One of the main concerns for folks today will be the forecast for
evening holiday activities. Fortunately, most or all of the
lightning activity should have shifted east of the forecast area
by 7 or 8 PM. However, lingering intermittent light to moderate
rainfall will be possible through the late afternoon and early
evening hours just about anywhere in the forecast area as weak
ascent from the upstream shortwave continues to move overhead
above the post-frontal airmass. This activity won`t amount to much
more than just a nuisance for those with outdoor plans late
tonight and into the early morning hours.
Some lingering wrap-around moisture will contribute to continued
chances for light rain and widespread cloudiness on Thursday
morning. However, some clearing should occur from west to east
through the late morning and afternoon as the trough exits the
area to the east. The post-frontal northerly winds will switch
back to the west/southwest on Friday, which should allow for
temperatures to climb back to near normal in the upper 60s and low
70s.
A secondary upper trough is progged to dig southeastward towards
North Texas Saturday and Sunday, along with another surface low
and cold front. Additional showers or a few storms will be
possible with this system, although it appears moisture won`t
have much time to recover after being scoured by Wednesday`s cold
frontal passage. This should limit rain totals, as well as the
potential for strong/severe storms due to a lack of instability.
Today`s GFS run came in much wetter with the weekend system, but
it is been an outlier among today`s ensembles as well as time-
lagged ensembles. Will keep PoPs a bit lower over the weekend and
continue to monitor the next trough over the next few days. The
active pattern will continue with a deep, broad upper trough
persisting across the Central US into next week. This should allow
another frontal passage to occur around midweek, with a lack of
deep moisture continuing to limit thunderstorm potential.
-Stalley
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 49 58 46 70 48 / 20 10 0 0 0
Waco 50 62 45 73 49 / 20 5 0 0 0
Paris 50 54 43 65 44 / 80 30 5 5 0
Denton 48 58 45 70 47 / 20 10 0 0 0
McKinney 49 56 45 67 46 / 30 20 0 0 0
Dallas 51 58 47 71 49 / 20 10 0 0 0
Terrell 52 57 45 70 47 / 30 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 51 58 44 68 48 / 20 5 0 0 0
Temple 49 64 45 73 49 / 20 5 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 47 61 44 71 46 / 20 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
30/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
951 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
An active fall like pattern is expected as we head into the first
week of November, which is usually the case. We will have a dry
evening, but the next weather system will already spread some rain
into southeast portions of the Lower Peninsula tonight. A low
pressure center will lift northeast through Ohio on Thursday and
bring rain to our area Thursday and Thursday night. We will dry out
for a bit Friday night into Saturday as high pressure moves through
the Great Lakes. Occasional rain showers are expected Sunday through
Tuesday as a couple of low pressure systems move through the area.
Temperatures will remain fairly close to normal the next 7 days in
the 40s and 50s for highs.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
The ongoing forecast for tonight look fine and no changes are
needed. It seems however the system for Thursday will bring
significantly more rain farther north than earlier through. Every
run of the RAP model and HRRR between 18z and 00z for 12z, 15z and
18z is farther north with the north edge of the rainfall. For
example, at 15z (11 am) the 00z HRRR had the rain as far north as
Lansing, the 18z run had is south of Jackson. As a result I have
slightly increased the pop farther north Thursday to allow for
this. Likely this will have to be adjusted farther north yet.
However the midnight shift will have to look at all of the new
data before making any final decisions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
The main forecast issues through the next 7 days pertain to rain
chances with multiple systems moving through the Great Lakes.
The first system to affect the area comes in late tonight and mainly
affects the southeast CWA towards Jackson. The models have been
pretty consistent the last day or two keeping the heaviest
precipitation off to the southeast of our CWA. Our highest pops come
Thursday evening at about 80 percent down towards Jackson. The rain
should end on Friday.
The next system to affect the area comes Saturday night into Sunday
as another shortwave moves into the longwave trough over the center
of the country. Shortwave energy moving out of the longwave trough
will continue rain chances into Monday.
Model disparity increases from Monday into Tuesday as the
deterministic models have a large spread in low placement and depth
of the lows. The ECMWF has a stronger low moving through the area
next Tuesday and we have shaded pops in that direction. We have
likely pops (60 pct) out on Tuesday as this low moves through the
region. Again, confidence in the details is not high given the other
models have weaker lows at a greater distance from our area.
The ECMWF has colder air infiltrating into the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes mid next week with a look toward lake effect snows
cranking up. The GFS has something similar, so the trend may be
toward colder with snow showing up in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
I have added rain to all but the MKG and GRR TAFs for Thursday
during the day. Very run of the HRRR and RAP model since 18z have
moved the north edge of the rain father north. For example the 18z
run had the north edge of the rain on the HRRR for 13z was south
of JXN, the 22z run has it nearly to Iona! My spin is the rain
will get close to GRR during the late morning and early afternoon.
All of our I-94 taf sites will see steady rain and at JXN I
believe we may have some IFR in moderate rain and low ceilings by
early afternoon. This condition will continue past 00z Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Have let the Small Craft Advisory expire as winds and waves have
come down already. The Michigan City buoy is the only observation
that has waves that are still above criteria, but it will be on the
way down. Winds will generally be 10-15 knots or less the next
several days, so waves will be tame by November standards.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Little response apart from within bank rises can be seen following
rainfall totals ranging from 0.25 to 1.5 inches last night into this
morning. Apart from smaller rivers such as the Sycamore Creek and
Maple Rapids which are peaking/will peak just above bankfull, all
rivers remain below action stage.
Little rainfall can be expected in the next couple days as a low
pressure system tracks through the Ohio River Valley just to the
southeast. The next main system to monitor will be for the early
part of next week, but there still remains a good deal of
uncertainty at this point.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...Duke
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...ANH
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
858 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
A frontal zone extended from southwest Arkansas northeastward
through the Ohio River Valley, with a low pressure center set move
northeastward and intensify along this relatively stationary
frontal zone overnight through Thursday morning. Rain will spread
northward farther into central IL, reaching near the I-72 corridor
by midnight and possibly reaching as far northwestward as the
Illinois River by early morning before the low moves off to the
east and rain diminishes again in the northwest. This is handled
well in the afternoon forecast package. The tight pressure
gradients associated with the low pressure center, however, are
indicating northeast surface winds of 20-25 mph from around I-70
southward by 6 a.m., lasting until early afternoon. While gusts
are difficult to determine given the stable and rainy environment,
gusts up to 40 mph are indicated by the HRRR and look reasonable
given modeled 925 mb wind speeds in that neighborhood. Have
updated forecasts for these increased winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
The cold front that produced the rainfall over our area last night
into early this afternoon has shifted south to the Ohio River.
That is where the front will remain tonight into Thursday morning
as low pressure develops along the boundary in response to an
upper level wave now over eastern New Mexico and forecast to
track northeast towards the Ohio River Valley late tonight into
Thursday. This will bring another round of rain to most of our
area, starting later this evening in the south, with the rain
gradually working its way northward late tonight into Thursday
morning as the surface wave shifts towards western Kentucky.
It still appears the heaviest rainfall, 3 to 4+ inches will remain
over extreme southern Illinois through northwest Kentucky into
southern Indiana. Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to locally 2.5 inches
will be possible over extreme southeast Illinois by the time the
rain tapers off later Thursday evening. Areas roughly along and
west of the Illinois River will see very little, if any rainfall.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Low pressure will be pushing off to our east by early Thursday
evening taking most of the significant rainfall with it. Models
indicate some light rain chances will remain across southeast
and east central Illinois during the evening as the 500 mb trof
axis shifts across the region. After that, a secondary trof
shifting southeast into the Midwest may produce some spotty light
rain over parts of the area Friday afternoon into the evening
hours before that upper wave shifts off to our east by Saturday
morning.
Our next significant upper wave and surface low pressure system
will already be pushing into the Plains on Saturday with rain
chances moving in by later in the afternoon over far west central
Illinois. Models look reasonable with the timing of the system
with the Euro model a bit quicker in bringing in the precip to
our west later in the day which seems reasonable based on the
very progressive flow pattern over the lower 48. It appears our
best chance for rain will be Saturday night into Sunday as the
surface low tracks to our west and northwest by late Sunday.
Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Sunday night as
the surface low tracks well to our north late Sunday night as
yet another storm system takes shape across the southern Rockies
late Sunday night into Monday.
Confidence drops off with respect to the early week storm system
with the ECMWF model the more aggressive with the surface wave
compared to the weaker GFS and Canadian models. Rain chances
return to our area late Monday and especially Monday night into
Tuesday as the storm system shifts across the state. Once the
rather intense low tracks north of the Great Lakes by Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week, some rather chilly air will be poised to
push southeast into the Midwest for the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
MVFR cigs expected to spread back northward to around the I-72
corridor terminals KSPI-KDEC-KCMI by around 05Z along with rain
and potential for MVFR vsby. Low MVFR or IFR cigs will not be far
to the southeast, so there is low potential for IFR to spread as
far north as I-72. To the north at KPIA and KBMI, expecting VFR
conditions to persist through the forecast period, although
showers could potentially spread that far northward, especially at
KBMI. Winds N-NE 5-10 kts initially, increasing toward 12Z and
becoming NE 12-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts along the I-72
corridor, but remaining lighter to the north.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...37
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
955 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
A steady light to moderate rain will spread north into the area
later tonight into Thursday as low pressure tracks into the Ohio
Valley. There will be sharp cut-off to the rain across far
northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan. Lows tonight will drop
into the low to mid 40s, with highs on Thursday only forecast to
range between the mid 40s and low 50s. An upper level trough then
lingers over the area on Friday with cool temperatures and chances
for showers.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Quick update to grids to expand NW extent of arriving rain faster
per radar/model trends.
Large area of rain noted from SE Missouri into Arkansas with
expanding area across SE Illinois into S Indiana. Low pressure
will continue to deepen and move towards the area tomorrow.
HRRR/RAP have been suggesting that more widespread rainfall may
occur further northwest late tonight and especially on Thursday.
QPF amounts in both models are well over an inch even as far NW as
our office with upwards of a tenth all the way to Lake Michigan.
Have made minor timing adjustments the remainder of the evening
into overnight hours and nudged QPF to combo of CONSShort and HRRR
with CONSShort reflecting the tight NW gradient fairly well. May
not be fast enough, but unsure how fast dry layer below 700 mb
will saturate prior to 6Z. Will defer any other changes to
incoming night shift.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 423 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Chances for post-frontal sprinkles/light showers southeast of US 24
will continue to diminish this afternoon into early this evening as
sfc cold front sags south toward the OH River. This drying trend
will be short lived as right entrance forcing tied to an Upper
Lakes/se Canada jet max helps deepen/strengthen low-mid level
baroclinic zone downstream of an approaching shortwave lifting
northeast from New Mexico and West Texas. A rather widespread
light/moderate rain event will result with precipitation lifting
back north Thursday morning. Tough forecast up into nw IN/sw MI
where tight moisture gradient sets up on northern fringe of
deepening system. Held with chance PoPs here but bumped PoPs
elsewhere. Heavier QPF (totals possibly in excess of an inch) later
tonight into Thursday still expected south of US 24 in closer
proximity to lower level fgen/deformation and deeper moisture.
Raw/cool ene flow in the low levels, in combination with the rain,
likely holds temps in the mid to upper 40s through the day
otherwise.
Cool temperatures and light rain then continues into Thursday night
thanks to mid level deformation forcing on the backside of sfc
cyclone into the Eastern Lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Upper level trough axis and cold pool enhanced by a separate
northwest flow pv anomaly will keep clouds/cool temps in place into
Friday. There may even be a few lingering showers, though exiting
moisture axis and renewed ascent with the aforementioned upper wave
bypassing sw through the Mid MS Valley hints at a mainly dry day
locally. Shortwave ridging then provides a dry/quiet Saturday
followed by periodic rain chances later Sunday into early next week
as several more shortwaves progress through in active/amplified flow
regime.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Only minor changes to previous TAFs with main impacts next 24
hours to occur at KFWA. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase
over both sites tonight. An area of rain will spread from
southwest to northeast overnight, reaching KFWA in the 8-10Z
window. MVFR cigs/vsby will accompany the rainfall, likely
persisting through most, if not all of the remaining forecast
period. While some impacts are possible at KSBN after 12Z Thurs,
models suggest they will be far enough away to warrant a continued
dry/VFR forecast.
NW winds will become variable and then out of the northeast on
Thursday with some gusts to 20 kts or so possible after 18Z in the
vicinity of KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1050 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving surface front approaches the region tonight and
brings unsettled weather to the area for the remainder of the
work week. High pressure this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...
Made some minor changes to PoP based on latest Radar and meso
model trends. Shortwave will move NE into Ohio through the early
morning hours, but latest guidance is suggesting that the
heaviest rainfall may stay off to our west.
As of 550 PM Wednesday...
Updated PoP based on latest meso model and radar trends. Going
to be a tight gradient on where the heavy rainfall sets up
tonight, with Central to SE Ohio being the most likely location.
However, latest HRRR runs and current Radar indicates that
rainfall is extending just a bit further south than previously
expected, so PoP has been updated accordingly.
As of 216 PM Wednesday...
A cold front is moving southeast across Indiana this afternoon,
and should move into Ohio before stalling. Deep moist mid and
upper level flow (with an EPAC tap) will continue to be draped
over the CWA tonight. Although the front will be west of the CWA
tonight, an H5 vort max is prog to advect across the area with
a slight H25 jet streak prog to briefly develop across the
region, which may lead to a period this evening where some light
rain and showers try to develop across the area (primarily
across the northern and western halves of the CWA).
Precip chances should dwindle some after midnight as some drier
air spreads northeast across the region in the sfc-H5 layer. WAA
overnight should keep much of the lowlands in the 50s for min
temps.
Much of the first half of Thurs should be dry across WV and our
VA counties, while SE OH and far NE KY may see some showers due
to the proximity of the sfc front. Precip chances should then
increase from west to east as the front slowly drifts eastward
and as a stronger H5 vort max advects across.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Wednesday...
Cold front gets finally dragged through the mountains with cold
air advection in its wake, plenty of low level moisture, and a
500mb trough to trigger post frontal showers. Surface high
pressure builds in quickly from the southwest, and the lower
thermal trough should be fairly quick to erode. Progressive flow
aloft brings ridging back into the Ohio Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 PM Wednesday...
Weakening trough aloft Sunday night into Monday, with
frontolysis occurring reduces the chances for precipitation with
this trough/frontal system. Stronger, deepening trough over the
plains states spreads into the Ohio Valley, pushing the next
stronger cold front through the CWA. This will likely have a
more robust line of showers, and 850mb temps in its wake will
fall pretty hard.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 750 PM Wednesday...
A cold front is stalled across Central Ohio and rainfall is
expected for portions of the Ohio Valley overnight. Impacts from
rain/lower ceiling and visibilities are likely at PKB and HTS.
However, points further east will likely escape any major
restrictions through the period. T
Overnight, precip chances may dwindle at PKB and HTS some as
some drier air off the surface spreads across the region...with
improving conditions by morning.
Low level winds pick up through the early morning hours, and
although values are borderline, have decided to add low level
wind shear to CRW and HTS and have the night shift assess
conditions later tonight and see if this will still be necessary
with the 06Z TAF issuance.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Moderate.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and impacts from showers/steady
rainfall may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 11/01/18
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible Thursday afternoon and night with rain.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083-
084.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/RH
NEAR TERM...RH/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK