Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/01/18


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1126 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Weak wind shift line making its way south across northern lower Michigan this evening, accompanied by a band of lake enhanced strato-cu. Otherwise, deeper low level moisture rotating across Lake Superior and central upper Michigan, with a just cool enough shallow convective layer to drum up some very light lake effect rain showers. Expect these clouds and isolated showers to impact the favored lake effect areas of Chippewa county overnight. Partly to mostly cloud skies expected across northern lower, with a combination of high clouds and lake induced lower clouds to continue. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 ...Decent Trick-or-Treating Weather... High Impact Weather Potential...None expected. A weak surface area of high pressure will build into the region from the west tonight which is good news for all the kiddies out and about this evening. Meanwhile, continued weak cold air advection will slowly increase over lake instability possibly leading to some stratocu development toward morning. Even if that were to occur, clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will lead to very good radiational cooling conditions for much of the night. Therefore, have lowered minimum temperatures for tonight by a few degrees with the range now generally between the mid 20s inland to the mid 30s near the lake shores. As a side note, likely a bit more clouds off of Lake Superior for Chippewa County (partly to mostly cloudy) but over lake instability appears to fall just short of actually producing precipitation (something for the evening shift to keep an eye on anyways). && .SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 ..Fairly quiet and cool... High Impact Weather Potential...None. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Deep longwave troughing will establish itself over the nation`s midsection as we close out the week. A potent shortwave carving through the Southern Plains will eject a surface low through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Weak surface high pressure and drier air overhead should prevent this system from having much, if any, impact on northern Michigan. Another shortwave trough will slide through the region Friday night, also with little fanfare given the dry air still in place. High pressure saddle point will settle over the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday in between a surface low over the Northeast and another over the Northern Plains, allowing for continued quiet weather. Primary Forecast Concerns...Precip potential with system passing by to our southeast Thursday night. Light lake effect showers near Saginaw Bay early Friday? Starting to look more likely that Thursday-Thursday night`s system sliding through the Ohio Valley will not have much, if any, impact on northern Michigan. Recent model runs have yielded a little better timing and track consensus. American guidance has held steadfastly to a more easterly track, keeping any precip on the backside of this low entirely out of northern Michigan. ECMWF and GEM signals have been a little murkier for our area, but recent runs have shifted the track slightly farther east. Have to think the dry air and high pressure overhead is going to win out and keep the vast majority (if not all) of our area dry. RAP and hires ARW/NMM add support to this. Have cut back on PoPs quite a bit across northeast Lower, retaining just slight chance near Saginaw Bay to still blend with neighboring offices to the south. It`s possible this area may see some light lake effect showers (sprinkles?) develop early Friday morning in NE flow off Lake Huron as H8 temps cool to around -4C, producing marginally supportive delta Ts. Pretty quiet thereafter heading into the weekend for northern Michigan with high pressure and dry air overhead. Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend through the end of the week, but highs will generally range from the low to mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 High Impact Weather Potential...Some lake effect snow and gales not out of the question, but considerable forecast uncertainty. An active pattern looks on tap for the extended forecast period with longwave troughing anchored over the central CONUS and several potent shortwave troughs rotating around through it. However, model spread is considerable through most of the period, resulting in low forecast confidence with any system that would impact the Great Lakes region. The first of these systems is a low progged to lift into the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday, followed by another potential low Monday night into Tuesday. This second low has a much higher degree of uncertainty, but it looks like it will usher in a considerably colder H8 airmass for the rest of the week. Possible impacts heading into the second half of the week include some accumulating lake effect snow and perhaps gales over a portion of the lakes at times. Given the considerable model spread, it`s hard to provide more specific details at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1125 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 VFR conditions as high clouds and relatively high based stcu/cu traverse the taf locations. Will need to be on the lookout for a period of MVFR cigs rotating off Lake Michigan early this morning and off Lake Huron later today. Current trends support dry enough low levels to keep cloud bases elevated. Light winds through the period. No visibility restrictions expected as any rain looks to fall across southern Michigan. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Continued small craft advisory through early Thursday on Whitefish Bay for gusty west northwest winds. Fairly light winds for much of Thursday with northeast winds picking up late in the day on into Friday when advisories are possible, mainly on Lake Huron. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321. && $$ UPDATE...MSB NEAR TERM...AS SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...MB MARINE...AS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1157 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave of low pressure and surface cold extending from the Great Lakes to the Mid Mississippi will slide east and reach Northwestern Pennsylvania by this evening. This front will stall out early Thursday as it nearly bisects the state stretching from the Poconos in the northeast to the Laurel Highlands over southwestern Pennsylvania. A significant wave of low pressure will move northeast along this stalled out boundary later this week, reaching Pennsylvania on Friday. The southerly wind in advance of the front will bring mild temperatures to the area, along with periods of rain and perhaps a thunderstorm. Brisk winds and cooler weather will follow for Saturday with high pressure drifting overhead Sunday with lighter wind. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Radar shows impressive line of showers from SW PA all the way to TX coast. Showers over our CWA mainly light to moderate and widely scattered and short lived. HRRR and models show this trend continuing overnight with only light QPF expected, all ahead of more concentrated rains later tomorrow as deep moisture moves into area. With thick clouds and moisture in place temperatures will stay about the same overnight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... Southwest flow at mid and upper levels, combined with the presence of a narrow axis of approx +2 sigma PWAT air over Central and SE PA, will help to transport moisture up and over the quasi-stnry boundary tonight producing some periods of showers - primarily over the NW third to half of PA. Otherwise, expect a mainly cloudy and unseasonably mild night with min temps 15 deg F or better above normal across all, except for perhaps the far NW part of our CWA where shallow, cooler air with temps in the 40-45F range will filter in behind the cfront. Min temps across the region near, and to the south of Interstate 80 will be in the low-mid 50s. A high prob of over 0.25 inch of rain exists in the 12-hour period ending 12Z Thursday, though the bulk of that QPF appears to be centered after 06Z Thursday, as another pulse of LLJ energy lifts NE into that region. Little change in the target area for rain occurs on Thursday with the likelihood for another 0.25 to 0.50 inch of QPF over the NW mtns, while locations to the southeast of the I-81 corridor could escape with little if any rain through Thursday evening. The north/south temp gradient across the frontal boundary will increase on Thursday with maxes in the upper 40s to around 50F across the northern tier of PA, and in the 60s to near 70s across the southern half or so of the state, which will be a good 6-10 deg F above normal in most places, and as much as 15 deg above normal across the Laurel Highlands. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term looks will see a continuation of the wet, unsettled weather we`ve been seeing lately. Another wave of steady rain will affect primarily the eastern half of Pennsylvania Friday afternoon into Friday night, bringing rainfall totals from the Thurs/Fri timeframe up to 1 to 2 inches for most of central PA /with locally higher amounts/. High pressure will build into the region Sunday, giving us a brief respite from the wet weather. However, easterly flow will develop as this high retreats into the Canadian maritimes, bringing clouds and a chance of rain back into central PA on Monday. It will remain showery into Tuesday, before a cold front crosses the region by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A dying cold front will stall out over northern Pa tonight, accompanied by occasional rain over the northwest half of the state. A plume of moisture accompanying the front, combined with orographic lift, will result in a high confidence of predominantly ifr/lifr cigs tonight across the northwest mountains (KBFD). South of the front, model guidance indicates predominantly vfr conditions are likely over the southeast part of the forecast area (KMDT/KLNS). In between, there is a fair amount of uncertainty with regards to possible low cigs across the central part of the state, all hinging on where the front stalls out tonight. Model soundings support predominantly vfr conditions across southern Pa (south of the stalled front) on Thursday. Over northern Pa, SREF/HREF probability charts support the idea of morning low cigs, then modest improvement by afternoon. Developing llws appears possible across the entire region Thursday evening, as a core of strong winds aloft overspreads the state in advance of low pressure lifting out of the Ohio Valley. Also, deteriorating cigs and rain appear likely Thursday evening across the northwest mountains, as the storm approaches. .Outlook... Fri...Morning LLWS/TSRA possible. AM low cigs possible N Mtns. PM rain/vis reductions possible southeast Pa. Evening low cigs possible again W Mtns. Sat...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Gusty WNW winds in the afternoon/evening. Sun...No sig wx expected. Mon...Low cigs possible. && .HYDROLOGY... A widespread soaking rain is expected to total 1-2 inches from late tonight into early Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible over the northern and eastern mountains. This amount of rain will lead to significant rises on smaller streams and creeks. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/RXR NEAR TERM...Ross SHORT TERM...Lambert/RXR LONG TERM...Evanego AVIATION...Fitzgerald HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1024 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .UPDATE... The cold front continues to move toward the Texas coast and radar data also shows the more persistent shower and thunderstorm activity is also moving to our east and south. We will keep the highest rain chances for the next hour or so along the Highway 77 corridor south of Highway 90 in proximity to the cold front. For the remainder of the overnight hours into Thursday morning, we should see scattered showers and storms move through the region from west to east. The latest hi-res models, particularly the HRRR, are showing less coverage of convection through tonight. With this in mind, we have opted to decrease rainfall chances slightly tonight and will go with mainly 30-50%. At this point, additional chances for severe weather appear low, with mainly an elevated thunderstorm producing marginally severe hail and wind being the main concern. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/ AVIATION... TSRA line will continue to impact AUS through 01Z with -SHRA possible near SAT/SSF/AUS as the line exits to the east. Disturbance moving across the Big Bend is already aiding in the development supercells across the higher terrain of Mexico and will have to watch DRT for possible impacts if these are able to propagate near the terminal. Have maintained VCTS between 04-10Z based on current development and a consistent signal in the HRRR for this activity to make it to the Rio Grande later tonight. -SHRA will be possible for the remainder of the terminals through 06-08Z as this wave passes. VFR ceilings will gradually transition to MVFR by 06-10Z as the post-frontal inversion deepens and based on upstream observations across the Big Country there is a low potential for high end IFR. Confidence is too low to include mention in the TAF with this issuance but at least a TEMPO group may be needed. Otherwise, breezy northerly winds 10-20 knots will persist through most of the TAF period but are expected to decrease by late afternoon as a surface high slides into South Central Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 51 66 47 74 51 / 40 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 66 45 74 48 / 40 - 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 66 46 74 48 / 40 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 48 63 44 71 48 / 40 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 51 67 48 73 51 / 60 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 50 64 45 73 49 / 40 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 51 68 45 74 48 / 40 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 52 65 45 73 48 / 40 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 66 46 73 50 / 80 - 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 52 66 46 73 50 / 40 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 54 68 47 73 50 / 40 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...17 Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 One or two locations across central ND have seen visibilities drop down to a few miles, so the potential for fog overnight is there. However, not expecting very widespread or particularly dense fog tonight. Otherwise, lowered overnight lows across the Devils Lake region by a couple of degrees. Adjusted precip chances slightly for Thursday night based on recent guidance. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Precipitation arrival tomorrow will be the main challenge for the period. West northwesterly flow aloft overnight with the surface ridging over the area moving eastward. Stratus continues over much of the northern and eastern TAF sites, but most of the models have some break up of the cloud deck. Given the time of year and sat loop showing only some minor erosion, am not optimistic but do have some lowering of cloud cover overnight. A few of the high resolution models develop some fog in the clearing areas with light winds, but the HRRR and RAP keep vis up for much of the night. Will keep an eye on things but will keep fog mention out for now. Otherwise the night should be fairly quiet. Tomorrow, the next clipper system will be digging down from Canada. A fairly weak low pressure system will be moving into our western CWA by afternoon. Some decent synoptic scale lift, along with weak frontogenetical forcing should bring some pretty high chances of precip into our western counties by afternoon. Temperatures will start out near the 30 mark early in the morning but there should be enough heating to get into the upper 30s and 40s by afternoon. Think that most of the precip will be rain looking at model soundings, although cannot completely rule a few flakes mixing in across the north early on. The HREF mean has primarily rain with a few spots of snow in the north as the precip comes in, so followed its trends. Rain amounts should be fairly light and under a tenth of an inch through 00Z Friday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Fast moving clipper Thu night likely associated with very minor accumulations will be followed by a system of more substance for Sat. Low track of this one is likely to be farther south from western ND through eastern SD. Much will depend on thermal profiles but boundary layer temps will be above freezing over all but extreme northern locations, so feel mostly rain with early morning and evening snow or mix most likely. Parts of NW MN may pick up more as the system wraps to the northeast Sat night perhaps dropping a non- trivial accumulation of snow. GEFS M-Climate, and ECMWF R-Climate along with GEFS plumes don`t depict anything too much out of the ordinary with most ensemble members offering an inch or less of snow for KGFK. More tranquil and cool for Sun and Mon before another chance for what would be snow Tue night or Wed. The ECMWF, in particular, keeps the track of this storm well south over southern plains toward Ohio Valley, leaving much less for our region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 MVFR to VFR conditions are prevailing across the region this evening and will likely continue to improve during the overnight hours as clouds slowly clear from west to east. Patchy fog may impact the KDVL, KFAR, and possibly KGFK, during the early morning hours tomorrow, but confidence in fog occurrence at the TAF sites is too low to include in the TAFs at this time (but will update as needed). Clouds will roll back in tomorrow afternoon with VFR conditions becoming MVFR by the evening. Rain is likely for all sites but KBJI. Although brief drops to IFR are possible with any moderate rainfall, confidence in IFR conditions is higher at KDVL for tomorrow evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AM SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...AM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .AVIATION... Drier air will continue to spread southeast behind today`s cold front, resulting in a gradual improvement of ceilings across the area. IFR conditions are still plaguing several locations in and around the DFW Metroplex and should become MVFR shortly after midnight, with MVFR cigs improving to VFR during the day Thursday. Most of the precipitation has ended, though additional showers may briefly impact KACT overnight as a shortwave trough moves overhead. Otherwise, northwest winds of 10 to 15 KT will continue overnight and Thursday before becoming light and variable late Thursday evening. 30 && .UPDATE... /Issued 931 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/ Main update was to clean up short term PoP, Wx and Temperatures grids to reflect ongoing trends. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is in good shape. Showers and storms continue to move south and east of North and Central Texas with just some very light stratiform rain across the Brazos Valley. Slightly more convective activity was noted across the Concho Valley and southern parts of the Big Country and is likely in response to upper level divergence spreading northward out of the speed max now nosing in over the Big Bend of Texas. As additional forcing arrives later tonight, there may be enough for some slightly deeper convective elements and some hi- res NWP does hint at this. I think the thunder potential is pretty low, but for now, I`ll advertise just some isolated chances for storms south of I-20 after midnight. There is a low threat for some wrap-around precip across eastern parts of the Red River Valley and I`ll hold on to a low chance for some rain showers. Otherwise, cooler and drier air will continue to filter southward into the region and temperatures were a few degrees lower than previously thought. I trended mainly towards the HRRR for the the temperature grids as it seems to have a good handle on the CAA. Updated products have been transmitted. Bain && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/ Main focus is the potential for strong to severe storms, as well as heavy rain and localized flooding over the next 3-5 hours before today`s storm system exits to the east. A surface cold front extends from roughly Canton to Groesbeck to Temple as of 330 PM with a vigorous upper trough digging towards the region. Ahead of this front, unseasonably warm and moist conditions have contributed to large SBCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Deep layer wind shear of 40+ kts will contribute to rotating thunderstorms in this area through the evening, which will pose a threat for some severe weather. Low-level wind fields across our southeast counties have begun veering in the past hour or two, and are limiting storm-relative helicity values slightly. As a result, the tornado potential isn`t terribly high, but mini- supercellular structures already observed today certainly suggest a non-zero potential. Storm motion roughly parallel to the frontal boundary is also contributing to storms becoming elevated rather quickly, also limiting surface-based thunderstorm hazards. A threat for hail will exist with stronger storms through late afternoon and evening, including those elevated behind the front. However, modest lapse rates through the mid-levels have limited the hail threat thus far today. Otherwise, a threat for damaging winds still exists with storms immediately along the front, especially if any more robust segments can organize as the front pushes east. The boundary is expected to push through the remainder of the forecast area over the next 4-5 hours, ending the tornado potential along with most of the severe weather threat. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for our southeastern zones through this evening, but will be trimmed accordingly as the front moves through. Aside from the severe potential, heavy rainfall and flooding is also of concern, particularly across our southern and eastern zones where training of convection may occur. Rain rates have not been terribly high thus far, but it also won`t take a great deal of rainfall to aggravate flooding issues given the antecedent saturated soil conditions. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches can be expected across our southern and eastern zones, while lighter totals will occur the farther northwest one`s location. One of the main concerns for folks today will be the forecast for evening holiday activities. Fortunately, most or all of the lightning activity should have shifted east of the forecast area by 7 or 8 PM. However, lingering intermittent light to moderate rainfall will be possible through the late afternoon and early evening hours just about anywhere in the forecast area as weak ascent from the upstream shortwave continues to move overhead above the post-frontal airmass. This activity won`t amount to much more than just a nuisance for those with outdoor plans late tonight and into the early morning hours. Some lingering wrap-around moisture will contribute to continued chances for light rain and widespread cloudiness on Thursday morning. However, some clearing should occur from west to east through the late morning and afternoon as the trough exits the area to the east. The post-frontal northerly winds will switch back to the west/southwest on Friday, which should allow for temperatures to climb back to near normal in the upper 60s and low 70s. A secondary upper trough is progged to dig southeastward towards North Texas Saturday and Sunday, along with another surface low and cold front. Additional showers or a few storms will be possible with this system, although it appears moisture won`t have much time to recover after being scoured by Wednesday`s cold frontal passage. This should limit rain totals, as well as the potential for strong/severe storms due to a lack of instability. Today`s GFS run came in much wetter with the weekend system, but it is been an outlier among today`s ensembles as well as time- lagged ensembles. Will keep PoPs a bit lower over the weekend and continue to monitor the next trough over the next few days. The active pattern will continue with a deep, broad upper trough persisting across the Central US into next week. This should allow another frontal passage to occur around midweek, with a lack of deep moisture continuing to limit thunderstorm potential. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 49 58 46 70 48 / 20 10 0 0 0 Waco 50 62 45 73 49 / 20 5 0 0 0 Paris 50 54 43 65 44 / 80 30 5 5 0 Denton 48 58 45 70 47 / 20 10 0 0 0 McKinney 49 56 45 67 46 / 30 20 0 0 0 Dallas 51 58 47 71 49 / 20 10 0 0 0 Terrell 52 57 45 70 47 / 30 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 51 58 44 68 48 / 20 5 0 0 0 Temple 49 64 45 73 49 / 20 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 47 61 44 71 46 / 20 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
951 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 An active fall like pattern is expected as we head into the first week of November, which is usually the case. We will have a dry evening, but the next weather system will already spread some rain into southeast portions of the Lower Peninsula tonight. A low pressure center will lift northeast through Ohio on Thursday and bring rain to our area Thursday and Thursday night. We will dry out for a bit Friday night into Saturday as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Occasional rain showers are expected Sunday through Tuesday as a couple of low pressure systems move through the area. Temperatures will remain fairly close to normal the next 7 days in the 40s and 50s for highs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 The ongoing forecast for tonight look fine and no changes are needed. It seems however the system for Thursday will bring significantly more rain farther north than earlier through. Every run of the RAP model and HRRR between 18z and 00z for 12z, 15z and 18z is farther north with the north edge of the rainfall. For example, at 15z (11 am) the 00z HRRR had the rain as far north as Lansing, the 18z run had is south of Jackson. As a result I have slightly increased the pop farther north Thursday to allow for this. Likely this will have to be adjusted farther north yet. However the midnight shift will have to look at all of the new data before making any final decisions. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 The main forecast issues through the next 7 days pertain to rain chances with multiple systems moving through the Great Lakes. The first system to affect the area comes in late tonight and mainly affects the southeast CWA towards Jackson. The models have been pretty consistent the last day or two keeping the heaviest precipitation off to the southeast of our CWA. Our highest pops come Thursday evening at about 80 percent down towards Jackson. The rain should end on Friday. The next system to affect the area comes Saturday night into Sunday as another shortwave moves into the longwave trough over the center of the country. Shortwave energy moving out of the longwave trough will continue rain chances into Monday. Model disparity increases from Monday into Tuesday as the deterministic models have a large spread in low placement and depth of the lows. The ECMWF has a stronger low moving through the area next Tuesday and we have shaded pops in that direction. We have likely pops (60 pct) out on Tuesday as this low moves through the region. Again, confidence in the details is not high given the other models have weaker lows at a greater distance from our area. The ECMWF has colder air infiltrating into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes mid next week with a look toward lake effect snows cranking up. The GFS has something similar, so the trend may be toward colder with snow showing up in the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 I have added rain to all but the MKG and GRR TAFs for Thursday during the day. Very run of the HRRR and RAP model since 18z have moved the north edge of the rain father north. For example the 18z run had the north edge of the rain on the HRRR for 13z was south of JXN, the 22z run has it nearly to Iona! My spin is the rain will get close to GRR during the late morning and early afternoon. All of our I-94 taf sites will see steady rain and at JXN I believe we may have some IFR in moderate rain and low ceilings by early afternoon. This condition will continue past 00z Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Have let the Small Craft Advisory expire as winds and waves have come down already. The Michigan City buoy is the only observation that has waves that are still above criteria, but it will be on the way down. Winds will generally be 10-15 knots or less the next several days, so waves will be tame by November standards. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Little response apart from within bank rises can be seen following rainfall totals ranging from 0.25 to 1.5 inches last night into this morning. Apart from smaller rivers such as the Sycamore Creek and Maple Rapids which are peaking/will peak just above bankfull, all rivers remain below action stage. Little rainfall can be expected in the next couple days as a low pressure system tracks through the Ohio River Valley just to the southeast. The next main system to monitor will be for the early part of next week, but there still remains a good deal of uncertainty at this point. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...Duke DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...ANH MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
858 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 A frontal zone extended from southwest Arkansas northeastward through the Ohio River Valley, with a low pressure center set move northeastward and intensify along this relatively stationary frontal zone overnight through Thursday morning. Rain will spread northward farther into central IL, reaching near the I-72 corridor by midnight and possibly reaching as far northwestward as the Illinois River by early morning before the low moves off to the east and rain diminishes again in the northwest. This is handled well in the afternoon forecast package. The tight pressure gradients associated with the low pressure center, however, are indicating northeast surface winds of 20-25 mph from around I-70 southward by 6 a.m., lasting until early afternoon. While gusts are difficult to determine given the stable and rainy environment, gusts up to 40 mph are indicated by the HRRR and look reasonable given modeled 925 mb wind speeds in that neighborhood. Have updated forecasts for these increased winds. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 The cold front that produced the rainfall over our area last night into early this afternoon has shifted south to the Ohio River. That is where the front will remain tonight into Thursday morning as low pressure develops along the boundary in response to an upper level wave now over eastern New Mexico and forecast to track northeast towards the Ohio River Valley late tonight into Thursday. This will bring another round of rain to most of our area, starting later this evening in the south, with the rain gradually working its way northward late tonight into Thursday morning as the surface wave shifts towards western Kentucky. It still appears the heaviest rainfall, 3 to 4+ inches will remain over extreme southern Illinois through northwest Kentucky into southern Indiana. Rainfall amounts of 1.5 to locally 2.5 inches will be possible over extreme southeast Illinois by the time the rain tapers off later Thursday evening. Areas roughly along and west of the Illinois River will see very little, if any rainfall. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Low pressure will be pushing off to our east by early Thursday evening taking most of the significant rainfall with it. Models indicate some light rain chances will remain across southeast and east central Illinois during the evening as the 500 mb trof axis shifts across the region. After that, a secondary trof shifting southeast into the Midwest may produce some spotty light rain over parts of the area Friday afternoon into the evening hours before that upper wave shifts off to our east by Saturday morning. Our next significant upper wave and surface low pressure system will already be pushing into the Plains on Saturday with rain chances moving in by later in the afternoon over far west central Illinois. Models look reasonable with the timing of the system with the Euro model a bit quicker in bringing in the precip to our west later in the day which seems reasonable based on the very progressive flow pattern over the lower 48. It appears our best chance for rain will be Saturday night into Sunday as the surface low tracks to our west and northwest by late Sunday. Rain chances start to decrease from west to east Sunday night as the surface low tracks well to our north late Sunday night as yet another storm system takes shape across the southern Rockies late Sunday night into Monday. Confidence drops off with respect to the early week storm system with the ECMWF model the more aggressive with the surface wave compared to the weaker GFS and Canadian models. Rain chances return to our area late Monday and especially Monday night into Tuesday as the storm system shifts across the state. Once the rather intense low tracks north of the Great Lakes by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, some rather chilly air will be poised to push southeast into the Midwest for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 MVFR cigs expected to spread back northward to around the I-72 corridor terminals KSPI-KDEC-KCMI by around 05Z along with rain and potential for MVFR vsby. Low MVFR or IFR cigs will not be far to the southeast, so there is low potential for IFR to spread as far north as I-72. To the north at KPIA and KBMI, expecting VFR conditions to persist through the forecast period, although showers could potentially spread that far northward, especially at KBMI. Winds N-NE 5-10 kts initially, increasing toward 12Z and becoming NE 12-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts along the I-72 corridor, but remaining lighter to the north. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
955 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 A steady light to moderate rain will spread north into the area later tonight into Thursday as low pressure tracks into the Ohio Valley. There will be sharp cut-off to the rain across far northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 40s, with highs on Thursday only forecast to range between the mid 40s and low 50s. An upper level trough then lingers over the area on Friday with cool temperatures and chances for showers. && .UPDATE... Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Quick update to grids to expand NW extent of arriving rain faster per radar/model trends. Large area of rain noted from SE Missouri into Arkansas with expanding area across SE Illinois into S Indiana. Low pressure will continue to deepen and move towards the area tomorrow. HRRR/RAP have been suggesting that more widespread rainfall may occur further northwest late tonight and especially on Thursday. QPF amounts in both models are well over an inch even as far NW as our office with upwards of a tenth all the way to Lake Michigan. Have made minor timing adjustments the remainder of the evening into overnight hours and nudged QPF to combo of CONSShort and HRRR with CONSShort reflecting the tight NW gradient fairly well. May not be fast enough, but unsure how fast dry layer below 700 mb will saturate prior to 6Z. Will defer any other changes to incoming night shift. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 423 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Chances for post-frontal sprinkles/light showers southeast of US 24 will continue to diminish this afternoon into early this evening as sfc cold front sags south toward the OH River. This drying trend will be short lived as right entrance forcing tied to an Upper Lakes/se Canada jet max helps deepen/strengthen low-mid level baroclinic zone downstream of an approaching shortwave lifting northeast from New Mexico and West Texas. A rather widespread light/moderate rain event will result with precipitation lifting back north Thursday morning. Tough forecast up into nw IN/sw MI where tight moisture gradient sets up on northern fringe of deepening system. Held with chance PoPs here but bumped PoPs elsewhere. Heavier QPF (totals possibly in excess of an inch) later tonight into Thursday still expected south of US 24 in closer proximity to lower level fgen/deformation and deeper moisture. Raw/cool ene flow in the low levels, in combination with the rain, likely holds temps in the mid to upper 40s through the day otherwise. Cool temperatures and light rain then continues into Thursday night thanks to mid level deformation forcing on the backside of sfc cyclone into the Eastern Lakes. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 423 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Upper level trough axis and cold pool enhanced by a separate northwest flow pv anomaly will keep clouds/cool temps in place into Friday. There may even be a few lingering showers, though exiting moisture axis and renewed ascent with the aforementioned upper wave bypassing sw through the Mid MS Valley hints at a mainly dry day locally. Shortwave ridging then provides a dry/quiet Saturday followed by periodic rain chances later Sunday into early next week as several more shortwaves progress through in active/amplified flow regime. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 655 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 Only minor changes to previous TAFs with main impacts next 24 hours to occur at KFWA. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase over both sites tonight. An area of rain will spread from southwest to northeast overnight, reaching KFWA in the 8-10Z window. MVFR cigs/vsby will accompany the rainfall, likely persisting through most, if not all of the remaining forecast period. While some impacts are possible at KSBN after 12Z Thurs, models suggest they will be far enough away to warrant a continued dry/VFR forecast. NW winds will become variable and then out of the northeast on Thursday with some gusts to 20 kts or so possible after 18Z in the vicinity of KFWA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Fisher SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel SHORT TERM...Steinwedel LONG TERM...Steinwedel AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1050 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving surface front approaches the region tonight and brings unsettled weather to the area for the remainder of the work week. High pressure this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday... Made some minor changes to PoP based on latest Radar and meso model trends. Shortwave will move NE into Ohio through the early morning hours, but latest guidance is suggesting that the heaviest rainfall may stay off to our west. As of 550 PM Wednesday... Updated PoP based on latest meso model and radar trends. Going to be a tight gradient on where the heavy rainfall sets up tonight, with Central to SE Ohio being the most likely location. However, latest HRRR runs and current Radar indicates that rainfall is extending just a bit further south than previously expected, so PoP has been updated accordingly. As of 216 PM Wednesday... A cold front is moving southeast across Indiana this afternoon, and should move into Ohio before stalling. Deep moist mid and upper level flow (with an EPAC tap) will continue to be draped over the CWA tonight. Although the front will be west of the CWA tonight, an H5 vort max is prog to advect across the area with a slight H25 jet streak prog to briefly develop across the region, which may lead to a period this evening where some light rain and showers try to develop across the area (primarily across the northern and western halves of the CWA). Precip chances should dwindle some after midnight as some drier air spreads northeast across the region in the sfc-H5 layer. WAA overnight should keep much of the lowlands in the 50s for min temps. Much of the first half of Thurs should be dry across WV and our VA counties, while SE OH and far NE KY may see some showers due to the proximity of the sfc front. Precip chances should then increase from west to east as the front slowly drifts eastward and as a stronger H5 vort max advects across. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Cold front gets finally dragged through the mountains with cold air advection in its wake, plenty of low level moisture, and a 500mb trough to trigger post frontal showers. Surface high pressure builds in quickly from the southwest, and the lower thermal trough should be fairly quick to erode. Progressive flow aloft brings ridging back into the Ohio Valley. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Weakening trough aloft Sunday night into Monday, with frontolysis occurring reduces the chances for precipitation with this trough/frontal system. Stronger, deepening trough over the plains states spreads into the Ohio Valley, pushing the next stronger cold front through the CWA. This will likely have a more robust line of showers, and 850mb temps in its wake will fall pretty hard. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 750 PM Wednesday... A cold front is stalled across Central Ohio and rainfall is expected for portions of the Ohio Valley overnight. Impacts from rain/lower ceiling and visibilities are likely at PKB and HTS. However, points further east will likely escape any major restrictions through the period. T Overnight, precip chances may dwindle at PKB and HTS some as some drier air off the surface spreads across the region...with improving conditions by morning. Low level winds pick up through the early morning hours, and although values are borderline, have decided to add low level wind shear to CRW and HTS and have the night shift assess conditions later tonight and see if this will still be necessary with the 06Z TAF issuance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Moderate. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and impacts from showers/steady rainfall may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 11/01/18 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible Thursday afternoon and night with rain. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083- 084. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/RH NEAR TERM...RH/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK