Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/31/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
953 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
The light rain/rain showers are gradually diminishing and for teh
most part should end by 1 am CDT. Lowered the mins southwest
tonight about 3 degrees to the mid 20s.
UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
Have seen a few cloud to ground lightning strikes late this
afternoon so will let the isolated thunderstorms remain in teh
forecast for a few hours this evening. Thunderstorms will end an
hour or two after sunset and the showers may linger a bit longer.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM
CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
A progressive upper low moving across central Manitoba will
continue to dig southeast towards southern Ontario tonight.
Another frontal boundary will setup from northwest North Dakota to
the south central or southeastern part of the state. As an
embedded shortwave rotates around the upper low, a few showers and
perhaps even a thunderstorm or two will be possible across the
west and central this afternoon and this evening. The latest RAP
iterations and 12 UTC NAM continue to advertise anywhere from 200
to 700 J/kg of 0-3 km MUCAPE across a large portion of the west
and 19 UTC SPC mesoanalysis already shows a large pocket of 500
J/kg of surface based CAPE in place across nearly the entire
western half of the state. Shower activity may continue into
tonight, but should gradually diminish after sunset.
Wednesday appears to be nearly a carbon copy of today, but likely
drier, a bit less breezy, and perhaps a degree or two cooler in
most spots.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
Wednesday night, the upper level flow begins to flatten and
briefly turn zonal as a fast moving Alberta clipper begins to
approach. The clipper moves northwest to southeast across the
state on Thursday, bringing some rain and breezy conditions to
the area during the afternoon, and then a brief window of a
rain/snow mix to the north Thursday night and into Friday morning
before quickly exiting the area. No significant snowfall
accumulations are expected with this clipper, but colder
temperatures on the back side will pave the way for a potentially
more significant clipper to impact the region over the weekend.
The stronger clipper approaches Friday night with rain and snow
initially possible during a brief period of warm air advection.
Some snowfall accumulations are likely across the area as models
are in pretty good agreement regarding liquid precipitation
amounts and storm track. However, the ECMWF has continued to trend
colder which would bring the rain/snow line further south
Saturday morning and afternoon. That being said, snowfall
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches look reasonable somewhere across
the west and/or the north central, and hopefully we will see more
model agreement regarding temperature profiles in the next few
runs.
Model agreement begins to break down on Sunday as various rain
and snow chances appear possible through the beginning of the
work week as a cool and active period continues.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
At 6 PM CDT low pressure across Manitoba/Ontario with a trailing
cold front through North Dakota is expected to usher in some MVFR
conditions KMOT-KJMS late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
601 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
Aloft: RAP model dynamic tropopause analyses and WV imagery
showed SW flow over the Cntrl Plns. The flow was moderately
amplified with a low invof Lk Winnipeg and a longwave trof
extending back into the Wrn USA. This trof will gradually move E
thru tonight and will be just W of the CWA by 00Z/Thu...extending
from MN-SD-CO-NM.
Surface: Vertically-stacked low pres was invof Lk Winnipeg with
its cool front extending S thru the upr Midwest into the Srn Plns.
1030 mb high pres was over the Pac NW and extended into the Cntrl
Plns. A piece of this high will break off over CO tonight and
head into the Srn Plns tomorrow. Meanwhile...the front will
continue to move further into the Ern/Srn USA.
Tonight: Mainly cldy. A mid-lvl low (700 mb) is fcst to form
within the trof over CO. This is currently generating some spotty
light precip upstream. Could see a bit of this move into our KS
counties after midnight in the form of sprinkles or a bit of light
rain. Probabilities for .01" QPF are very low.
Low temps are a challenge. There will be thin spots or breaks in
the OVC espcly N and W of the Tri-Cities. With winds becoming lgt
it won`t take much for temps to really drop. Did not go as cold as
MOS from LXN-ODX...but did lower the prvs fcst a bit N and W of
the Tri- Cities.
Wed: Possibly some sprinkles or a bit of light rain over N-cntrl
KS. Otherwise...mainly cldy but clds will begin a slow diminishing
trend from N-S...espcly during the afternoon. Nudged high temps
up a bit from the 4 AM fcst based on a 50-50 blend of the 2 best-
performing temp guides recently.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
Aloft: The upr trof mentioned above will move thru Thu with NW
flow Fri. The next shortwave trof will be moving thru the Wrn
ridge. That will result in a shortwave ridge over the Cntrl Plns
Fri. The trof will move in Sat and set up the longwave trof over
the Plains. That trof will remain overhead thru Mon. Multiple mdls
are fcstg cyclogenesis just to our E early next week. That will
force the trof to broaden and shift E a bit with cyclonic NW flow
remaining over the rgn thru mid next wk.
Surface: A weak and weakening little Clipper system will dive SE
into the rgn Thu. A stronger low pres sys will move thru the W and
cross the Plns Fri night into Sat. This will be followed by other
weak sys Mon that will significantly deepen as it moves into the
GtLks Tue.
Temps: Say good-bye to the 70s for a while. Temps will average
near or cooler than normal.
Precip: Nothing of significance is currently envision...but
Mon night does hold some potential for something more moderate to
substantial...espcly E of Hwy 281 "if" that deepening low ends up
a little further W than currently fcst.
In the meantime...there could be a little bit of light rain Thu
night although it`s not currently in the fcst. That could change.
Then a little bit of light rain and snow Fri night thru Sat
night...and then again Mon- Tue. Not all areas will see precip and
if/when it does occur...amounts are currently looking very light.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
Wind speeds will continue to subside tonight as the surface
gradient relaxes and clouds will remain at VFR levels.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Fay
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
955 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Overall there is not a lot of change in the ongoing short term
forecast. Mild conditions are expected tonight with low
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s as Gulf moisture
increases. Decent 30 kt low level jet has developed this evening
and could increase some later tonight. Upper level trough
continues to develop over the Desert SW tonight as seen on water
vapor imagery. Surface analysis has cold front from north Texas
back SW towards west central Texas. Front will be the focus for
thunderstorm activity tomorrow - some severe. New 00Z WRF ARW/NMM
show a slightly more progressive and faster squall line than
previous runs by nearly 3 hours. We`ll also have to keep an eye on
any storms that develop ahead of the front in the afternoon for
rotation. HRRR 01Z run supports this idea as doe the WRF runs.
There will be some solid upper level support so any capping could
erode rather quickly once divergence aloft with the jet moves over
the region. Instability may be the only question mark as there
could be some low level stratus to start the day which could limit
heating. PWAT values do climb towards 1.9 to 2.0 inches which
could also support higher instability. The environment certainly
looks supportive of severe thunderstorms with storm mode
determining the main threats. With a squall line developing, hail
and damaging winds look to be the main threat but low level shear
will be strong enough to support rotating updrafts so a brief
tornado along the line cannot be ruled out. The SPC outlook for an
enhanced risk looks on track.
Overpeck
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018/
AVIATION...
VFR through the evening into the early Wednesday morning hours
from metro southward...pre-dawn MVFR decks likely forming north
of the city. A cold front and possible associated leading broken
thunderstorm line is timed to reach our northern terminals during
the late afternoon hours. The organization of this squall line
feature leading the frontal boundary will ultimately determine
the speed at which it moves across the region late in the day into
the very early Thursday morning hours. Forecast calls for streamer
showers to begin coming across the area after 11 AM with a lowering
cloud deck into MVFR from early morning (north) to around noon
for the city and points south with a fairly robust onshore wind.
Timing the bulk of the convection to occur from around 4 or 5 PM
around CLL to around 7 or 8 PM over the metro hubs...blowing off
the coast beyond the 24 hour TAF period or shortly after midnight
Thursday. Thus, as the thunderstorm line advances southeastward,
many terminals will be experiencing the strongest weather from
the late afternoon hours up north through the late evening hours
further south. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Amplifying mid/upper level trough digging across the lower Great
Basin this afternoon will be primary driver behind our active
weather pattern over the next couple of days. This impulse will
dig into TX through the day tomorrow, before swinging out as a
neutral to negatively tilted trough into the lower MS river valley
through the Thu morning. As this occurs, an effective cold front
will become better defined over sw TX into the ARKLATEX tomorrow
morning which will move steadily s-sewd through the day and across
sern TX late tomorrow into early Thu morning.
NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Quiet night in store with increasing clouds and dew points as
winds remain breezy out of the south ahead of approaching weather
system. Lows tonight should bottom out around 70f for most areas
and around 75f right along the coast.
SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Active weather still on tap for late Wednesday into early Thursday
as height falls and deep ascent overlap with strong surface cold
front moving into the area. Ahead of this system, dew points will
remain unseasonably high with lower 70s f in place. Although
clouds will also be increasing, we will still destabilize
considerably through the day as temps climb into the lower to mid
80s with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 j/kg range by late afternoon.
Expect capping will slowly erode through the day as height falls
spread across the area, although there remains some question on
warm sector development ahead of the front. Deep layer shear on
the order of 40-50 kt will be more than sufficient supercells and
organized clusters/lines of severe should capping break. Mostly
likely scenario will have storms tied closer to the surface cold
front moving into northern counties late in the day or early Wed
evening, progressing steadily sewd into the Houston metro mid to
late evening and off the coast after midnight. Wind damage is
expected to be primary risk with these storms, although depending
on convective mode, large hail and tornadoes will remain threats
as well. Rain will be heavy in the strongest cores, however storms
will likely be moving relatively quickly which should limit
duration of heaviest rain at any locations. Exception will be
should storms train on strengthening low level jet during the late
evening/overnight as surface front becomes oriented more parallel
to the llj. At this time, expect the front will continue moving
and not stall which would limit the threat of training storms.
Once the front pushes offshore early Thursday, expect a pronounced
temperature change with brisk northwest winds holding through the
day. Max temps on Thursday may not make it out of the mid 60s.
LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Brisk fall weather will only last a few days as deep longwave
trough begins to be carved out over the central US early next
week. Both GFS and Euro bring rain chances back into the area
Sunday into early next week as temps rebound back into the lower
80s for highs Sunday and Monday. Evans
MARINE...
A southerly moderate to fresh breeze is expected until a cold front
pushes off the coast overnight Wednesday Night into early Thursday
morning. Small craft should exercise caution, and an SCA could be
required over the Gulf waters for a few hours Wednesday night.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of this
front, some of which could be severe. Expect locally higher winds
and seas in and near any storms. An offshore fresh breeze is
expected in the wake of the front on Thursday, weakening to a light
to gentle breeze on Friday. An onshore moderate breeze returns on
for the weekend. 11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 81 54 66 47 / 0 90 100 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 83 59 67 49 / 0 70 100 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 80 63 68 55 / 10 50 100 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening for the following zones:
Galveston Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
909 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018
Made some slight tweaks to the rain forecast grids for the near
term, but those tweaks do not change the ongoing 12-hour rain
chances in the zone forecast. By 8 AM, expect scattered showers in
our southern Indiana counties, with timing into the Louisville metro
a few hours later. By 7 PM we have categorical pops (75-100%) along
and north of a line from Hartford, KY to Elizabethtown to Frankfort.
Otherwise, temperatures will not change much the rest of the night,
with southerly winds expected to pick up through the overnight.
Winds just above surface will be cranking with NAM and RAP both
showing a 40-50 knot jet at 850 mb.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018
...A Wet, Breezy Halloween Evening for Most...
A pleasant evening is expected with temperatures falling through the
60s and partly cloudy skies. Winds may be a bit gusty at times with
gusts as high as 20 mph, but wind gusts should diminish after sunset.
Tonight, expect increasing cloudiness ahead of an approaching cold
front. Southerly winds will continue to be a bit breezy overnight
with winds in the 10-15 mph range. Wind gusts over 20 mph will
become more likely as we get closer to sunrise. Also rain ahead of
the front should enter southern Indiana just before sunrise. Low
temps should hold in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
For Wednesday, look for steady rains to slowly overspread southern
Indiana during the morning hours and portions of central KY during
the afternoon/early evening hours. A very robust moisture plume
will enter southern Indiana and north central KY by Wed evening
providing steady light to moderate rains. A few embedded t-storms
will also be possible Wed afternoon as soundings indicate a small
sliver of available CAPE. No severe wx is expected. High temps
will range through the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The biggest forecast challenge will be timing precipitation into the
area as it may affect Wednesday evening outdoor activities. The
slower NAM solution seems to be an outlier at this point, so relied
on a blend of CAM and global models for timing. Essentially expect
all of southern Indiana and most of north central KY including the
Louisville and Lexington Metro areas to see at least light rain by
early Wed evening. Steady moderate rains Wed evening look most
likely over southern Indiana and along and north of a line from
Hartford to E-town to Frankfort across portions central KY. The
driest locations which may only see a few light showers Wed evening
will be in the Lake Cumberland region of south central KY. Those
with outdoor plans Wed evening should closely monitor radar and
forecast updates on the rain before heading out!
In addition to rains, southwest winds will gust 20-30 mph Wed
afternoon and early evening.
.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KY...
...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY...
Wednesday Night - Friday Evening...
SW flow through a deep layer will be present over the Ohio River
Valley between a deepening trough over the central CONUS and upper
ridging off the Atlantic coast. As we move into Wednesday night, the
right entrance region of an impressive upper jet will slide into our
area and be enhanced by coupling from a subtropical impulse moving
into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Beneath this feature, the
low level jet is forecast to respond into the 40-50 knot range. As a
result of the increased lift and moisture transport, widespread
moderate rain is expected to overspread the entire region. Expect
there will be pockets of heavy rain as well, especially with the
potential for a linearly forced band of strong showers that we
sometimes see in the right entrance region of the upper jet. By dawn
Thursday, a strengthening surface wave associated with the
coupling/strengthening of the subtropical/polar jets will ride up
the Ohio River Valley. The widespread rain (moderate to heavy at
times) will continue through the day, along with gusty winds due to
the tight pressure gradient.
Had considered adjusting the total QPF values down a bit from the
previous forecast as GEFS mean plumes are mostly in the 2-3" for the
event. However, the 12z ECMWF has continued to come in bullish with
QPF. So, plan to go with something close to WPC to account for this
as a good average between the two. Given the large synoptic nature
of this system prefer to lean away from the hi-res CAMs that are
painting a slower and more NW system. Plan to message widespread 2-4
with locally higher amounts, much like previous forecasts.
Ongoing FFA looks good and see no reason to change it at this point.
Again, think the Flood Watch is a more representative product than a
Flash Flood Watch given that this is more of a large scale synoptic
duration event rather than a high precip rate convective event.
There will be periods of high rates as PWATs peak around 200% of
normal for this time of year, but overall think areal
flooding/volume is the bigger concern.
The lead upper wave and associated surface system will exit the area
Thursday night, with lingering light rain continuing into Friday.
There may be a relative lull in the subsident wake of the lead wave
sometime later Thursday night into Friday, however another
reinforcing shortwave will dive into the parent east CONUS trough
and continue chances through Friday evening.
As far as temperatures go, a tight gradient will exist while the
front is over our area. Look for upper 40s north to lower 60s south
on Wednesday night. Expect a very small diurnal range on Thursday
under heavy precipitation. Look for lower 50s north to mid 60s south.
Temps fall off Thursday night as the surface wave passes and pulls
the front through the area. Look for lows in the 40s. Friday highs
are only expected to recover to the low and mid 50s under heavy
cloud cover and lingering precipitation.
Friday Night - Saturday Night...
Pretty confident in a dry period late Friday night through Saturday
night as the trough axis exits the area and the pattern reloads
upstream. With clearing skies and calming winds, temps drop into the
upper 30s on by dawn on Saturday. Saturday highs should recover to
around 55 to 60 degrees, with Saturday night lows recovering back to
the low and mid 40s on southerly return flow.
Sunday - Tuesday...
Low confidence on the Sunday - Tuesday time frame as models disagree
on the timing/amplitude of the next storm system. One thing can be
said is that all models agree on a very potent story system
developing by Tuesday over the mid Mississippi River Valley and
upper Midwest. Have pretty high pops going for day 7 to account for
this. In general, expect increasing rain chances each day, with
temps trending milder ahead of the strong storm system expected mid
week.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018
A cold front over the Midwest will advance slowly eastward this TAF
period, stalling out along the Ohio River by Wednesday evening.
Moisture flowing into the region from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of
this front and within a strong belt of southwesterly winds will
bring fuel alternate flying conditions Wednesday. Expect worst
conditions first at HNB by late morning, then SDF around lunchtime
and later LEX. BWG should stay on edge of rain shield, but fuel
alternate is possible in the afternoon. Expect low-level wind shear
ahead of this feature overnight and then gusty winds all sites mid
morning on.
&&
.Hydrology...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher
amounts will be possible for the mid-week period. The heaviest
rainfall looks to occur from Wednesday night through the day on
Thursday. For this reason, a Flood Watch is in effect.
While there is still some spread within the guidance, the best
chances for river flooding by late week look to be along the
following basins in central Kentucky: Green, Barren, Rolling Fork,
Elkhorn, and the Licking.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
KY...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>055-061>065-070>074-076.
&&
$$
Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...RJS
Hydrology...AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
901 PM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled conditions are expected during the second half of the
week as a frontal system moves slowly across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Main change was to slow down the PoP increase slightly later
tonight and into Wednesday. Latest run of hi-res models such as
the HRRR and 3km NAM supported this. Also, the presence of dry
air below 800mb on the 00Z PBZ sounding suggest that some of the
initial precipitation may end up as virga. Otherwise, clouds
will thicken and lower with time through the night as the upper
ridge axis passes, and southerly flow will help to keep low
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rain chances will be on the increase Wednesday as longwave
troughing deepens over the central CONUS and an associated
surface boundary approaches. Slow eastward progression is likely
as the longwave deepens and flow becomes nearly parallel to the
boundary. Prolonged light rain with periodic moderate, to
possibly heavy rain looks likely with strong moisture advection
and several embedded shortwaves cross through Thursday. Overall,
expect a general 1 to 3 inches across the region with the
heavier amounts over East Central Ohio. Above normal
temperatures expected through the period...with the warmest
temperatures on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers will taper off Friday as the system continues east
with possible isolated coverage Saturday under the upper cold
pool. Saturday will be the coolest day in the period followed by
a gradual warming trend as heights rise slightly and SSW flow
resumes. Next chance for precipitation looks to be later on
Monday at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A crossing high pressure ridge will keep VFR conditions going
through the night, although clouds will lower and thicken with
time. A low-level jet on the back side of the departing ridge
will likely set up low level wind shear conditions after
midnight, continuing into mid-morning, until mixing commences.
Precipitation chances will increase through the day Wednesday as
a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Condition
deterioration to MVFR is from PIT/HLG on west is expected
during the afternoon, with IFR possible prior to 00Z.
Outlook...
Flight restrictions can be expected through the weekend with
the approach and slow passage of a cold front.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
832 PM PDT Tue Oct 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty north winds will continue this afternoon and through the
early evening hours. Breezy conditions could persist through
Wednesday morning then winds should diminish by Wednesday
afternoon for most areas. The latter half of the week will see
gradually warming temperatures and much lighter winds compared to
today and Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...Upper trough and associated cold front which brought the
southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert cooler temperatures and gusty
winds was moving east through Arizona this evening. Region will be
under the influence of a dry northerly flow Wednesday and Thursday
sandwiched between eastern Pacific ridge and central states trough.
Northerly breezes will continue south of Hoover Dam, while elsewhere
wind will start to subside Wednesday afternoon. No update this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday.
With the cold front through the region and north winds draped
across the CWA, the main focus is on wind magnitude tonight
through tomorrow. The hi-res suite of models are all keying in on
winds staying elevated across higher elevations as well as extreme
southwest Utah and parts of extreme southeastern Lincoln county
and northern Mohave through the overnight hours and beginning to
subside around 12Z tomorrow morning. While these locations are all
pretty well agreed upon, magnitudes deviate from model to model.
The HRRR was favored in a blend of the hi-res suite as it has
handled winds thus far this morning relatively well while also
being the more tempered solution among its counterparts. Winds
should begin to subside by mid day tomorrow with the Colorado
River Valley perhaps staying breezy into the evening.
Thursday will begin a trend of warming through the remainder of
the week. With the 500 mb trough well to the east, the region will
be draped in northwest flow with steadily building heights
throughout the day.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
Ridging along the West Coast with troughing over the central U.S
will keep our region under a dry northwesterly flow through the
extended period. This will result in a fairly benign and
precipitation free weather pattern with above normal temperatures.
Periodic high clouds may skirt through the region as disturbances in
the flow move from the PacNW into the central Rockies, but otherwise
no major impacts are expected. Temperatures will average 5 to 8
degrees above early November normals.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty winds out of the the north-
northwest will continue through this evening with speeds between
16-22 knots gusting to 25-30 knots. Overnight, gusts will
continue but speeds will come down closer to 10 knots gusting up
to 20 knots. Early Wednesday morning the winds will pick up once
again to 15 knots gusting 25 knots through early afternoon when
winds will shift to the northeast and come down to 10 knots or
less. Light and variable winds can be expected by mid afternoon
through the evening hours.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California... Gusty, north to northwest winds will continue for much
of the period. Winds will peak this afternoon at speeds of 15-25
knots gusting 25-35 knots across most areas. Winds will come down
slightly overnight but remain gusty across southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona. After a brief uptick in winds Wednesday
morning, a downward trend in wind speed is expected during the
afternoon. The exception will continue to be the Colorado River
Valley where speeds of 15-20 knots gusting 25-30 knots will
continue through the early evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pierce
AVIATION...Guillet
SHORT TERM/SYNOPSIS...TB3
LONG TERM....Outler
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