Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/28/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1100 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
Main forecast concerns in the short term are on rain chances
tonight along with the potential for a few thunderstorms then
focus quickly turns to strong northwest winds early Sunday morning
into early Sunday afternoon.
A fast moving shortwave will dive southeast into the area tonight
from North Dakota. Look for rain and an isolated thunderstorm or
two, to overspread southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa after 7
PM tonight, pushing east into western and central Wisconsin after
10 PM. Main threat from any thunderstorm will be lightning.
Convection Allowing Models are in good agreement with
precipitation placment and timing so confidence is high on
precipitation chances tonight. Strong northwest winds will
develop tonight, mainly after 3 AM across the open areas of
southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa as the wave moves in from
the northwest and the surface low slides southeast across western
Wisconsin. The latest RAP forecast soundings are indicating that
winds will increase to 30 to 40 kts just above the surface in the
8 to 10 Z timeframe across southeast Minnesota then spreading into
northeast Iowa. Even stronger winds noted above 1 kft with speeds
of 45 to 55 kts noted. Have decided to hoist a wind advisory from
4 AM to 1 PM Sunday, with the strongest winds expected from 4 AM
to around 8 AM. Plan on northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts
to 45 mph, possibly higher closer to Interstate 35 over southern
Minnesota and northern Iowa. There is the potential for the low to
edge a little further east, and if it does, the wind advisory may
need to be expanded into western Wisconsin. Winds will gradually
taper off Sunday afternoon as the low pushes off to the southeast.
Any lingering rain over central Wisconsin will also taper off and
end during the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
Mainly quiet weather expected to start the week. Occasional
precipitation chances, but low forecast confidence from Thursday
into Saturday.
High pressure builds into the region Sunday night with cool and
quiet weather expected. Plan on lows falling into the 30s. The high
pushes east of the area of area Monday night into Tuesday as a
trough approaches from the west. A few models are indicating there
could be some rain associated with this feature. However, it
appears that the main trough will pass to the north of the region
then precipitation is expected along the frontal zone across
northern Illinois into northern Missouri after the front has
shifted south of the area. Northwest flow then returns to the area
for the last half of the week with the potential for a few system
to impact the region. Low confidence on potential timing and
precipitation amounts so leaned heavily toward a model consensus
blend in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
Cigs: break from the MVFR cigs as rain/upper level shortwave
approaches moves through. Expect cigs to fall back to MVFR overnight
as the system`s associated cold front moves in. Should finally get
into some clearing later in the day Sunday.
WX/vsby: showers moving quickly east late this evening, likely
clearing KRST by 06z. Showers will continue at KLSE into the
overnight, and could linger well into Sunday- KLSE closer proximity
to upper level trough and low level cold air advection/favorable
lapse rates. Some potential for isolated thunder later tonight, but
not enough confidence to add to forecast.
Winds: the big story for the forecast as the tightening pressure
gradient west of the system`s sfc low. Fairly uni-directional in the
vertical, which will help with downward mixing of the winds even
with anticipated cloud cover. Should be strong/gusty through the
morning, decreasing later in the afternoon.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Rieck
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1041 PM EDT Sat Oct 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will weaken as it moves into western New England
overnight. Weak low pressure will continue to meander over the
region Sunday through Monday. High pressure will build in from
the west Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure will shift
offshore Tuesday night as a cold front moves in from the west.
The front will stall over southern New England on Wednesday. Low
pressure will track north through western New York on Thursday
and a trailing cold front will cross the region on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM discussion...
Wind advisory has expired but still have some gusty winds out
there possibly knocking a loose limb down overnight.
Temperatures will only change a degree or so most locations as
front meanders over the area. Areas with precipitation have
switched over the drizzle as dry slot arrives and have updated
grids to add drizzle and remove moderate precipitation wording.
This is not enough to cancel the Winter Weather Advisories just
yet with mixed precipitation/FZDZ still ongoing as well as some
snow flakes for higher elevations.
820 PM discussion...
As warmer temperatures encroach from the south, am canceling
some of the winter weather advisory as freezing rain concern is
largely coming to an end. Have left the foothills in the
advisory for now as these areas will see an upslope component to
accumulating snowfall.
640 PM discussion...
Main push of precipitation is out of the area, however it
remains treacherous and slippery out there with additional
showers streaming in offshore. HRRR and other models keeping a
wedge of colder air in place along the Whites. Temperatures
gradually tick up overnight along the coast and just inland as
WAA advances. LLJ is intensifying the pressure gradient and
overall quality of cold air drainage across the winter weather
advisory area. Should still get some slushy snow/sleet mixing in
as well as rain at times, with rain showers elsewhere as the
coastal front pivots onshore. Have added fog to the forecast as
well as reworked the QPF/snow/ice totals for latest model runs.
Previous discussion...
Initial band of mid level over-running currently pushing through
central and northern New Hampshire and central western Maine
early this afternoon. This is producing a brief burst of wet
snow at the onset before going over to sleet and rain. Have
bumped up snowfall amounts somewhat in these areas but 1 to 3
inches should cover most areas before precipitation goes over to
rain. Elsewhere temperatures have risen above freezing and light
to moderate rain is falling over much of southern zones.
Low level jet approaching from the south will enhance rainfall
rates in southern and coastal zones later this afternoon and
evening with expected storm totals of 1 to 1.5 inches. winds
will be increasing significantly in coastal areas through the
late afternoon and these higher winds will work their way down
the coast through this evening. Wind advisories remain in effect
for coastal zones through 1000 PM this evening.
Looking for rain to taper to showers in southern zones late this
evening with areas of fog and drizzle in its wake. Farther north
a winter weather advisory remains in effect for a wintry mix of
snow...sleet and possibly some freezing rain overnight. Low
temperatures overnight will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s
north and mid 30s to near 40 south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A broad area of weakening low pressure will meander over the
region on Sunday. Drier air tucking in from the southwest may
produce a few sunny breaks in coastal and southern interior
Maine but the majority of the forecast area will see a mostly
cloudy day with a chance of showers. Highs will reach the lower
to mid 50s in coastal and southern interior sections of Maine
and coastal New Hampshire. Elsewhere highs will range through
the 40s.
Next shortwave rotating around broad upper trough will swing
weak low pressure into southern New England by Monday morning.
Looking for mostly cloudy skies overnight with an increasing
chance of showers after midnight. Lows will range from the mid
30s north to near 40 in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave trough will progress slowly across the region on
Monday. While precipitation associated with this disturbance
will not be heavy, there will be on and off showers with chilly
temperatures. Rain showers will likely turn to snow showers in
the mountains during the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, short
wave ridging builds in for Tuesday and for a portion of
Wednesday allowing for warmer temperatures and drier weather.
Thereafter, another low pressure system is expected to affect
our region Thu into Sat with more inclement weather.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...
Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight. Areas of MVFR ceilings
on Sunday and Sunday night.
Long Term...MVFR conditions likely Monday in showers. Otherwise,
VFR conditions should return for Tue into Wed with lowering
conditions once again Thu with a cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing storm warnings for the outer waters and
Gales for the bays.
Long Term...Marginal SCA conditions are expected on the waters
Monday and Monday night.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some splash-over and beach erosion expected tonight.
Gusty easterly winds will gradually subside this evening but
will produce a 1 to 1.5 foot storm surge around the time of high
tide and high near- coast wave heights. Hampton Bay may need to
be monitored for possible minor flooding. However, tonight`s
high tide is the lower of the day`s cycle, therefore an advisory
and/or warning is not expected tonight. It will be monitored
for changes however.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ007-012.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ008-009-
013-014.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NHZ001>004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ151-153.
Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Sinsabaugh
LONG TERM...Ekster
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
A strong shortwave will cross MN tonight. This will drive a cold
front south through the area late this afternoon and evening.
Expecting a period of gusty north winds as the front passes. Deep
vertical mixing will remain through the evening hours, with 850mb
winds speeds increasing to 35 to 40 kt behind the front. Strong
pressure rises also noted immediately behind the front. Have trended
toward the HI-RES HRRR and LAV guidance, which shows 40 mph wind
gust potential this evening. Upstream gust of 55 mph currently at
Rapid City, boosting confidence that we`ll get a period of stronger
post frontal winds this evening. Also added isolated showers across
the portions of north central NE as a band of mid-level FGEN and
clouds develop. Drier air spreads south in the mid and upper levels
late with clearing skies after midnight.
Return southerly flow develops Sunday on the backside of surface
high pressure that will be centered across the Missouri River valley
by late afternoon. Full sunshine is expected, and sided with the
warmer guidance based on the recent history of guidance being too
cool. Should reach the mid and upper 60s at most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
Another potentially very warm day Monday. Southwest winds will shift
northwest as a surface trough crosses the area. This will promote
deep vertical mixing aiding in a nice warm up. Expecting highs in
the 70s.
A cooler and more active pattern arrives Tuesday onward. Flow aloft
will become northwest, with several weak waves and bouts of mid-
level FGEN leading to an increase in cloud cover and possibly some
scattered light precipitation.
Temperatures will cool into the 50s for highs on Tuesday, and
gradually cool further behind a couple of cold frontal passages for
the remainder of the week. The coolest day looks to be Friday,
with highs in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
Strong northerly winds are expected this evening at bot the KLBf
and KVTN terminals with gusts around 35 KTS expected. Winds will
diminish some by late evening, but remain around 10 to 15 kts
into the overnight. Scattered to broken high level cloudiness is
expected this evening, with clearing expected overnight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
900 PM CDT Sat Oct 27 2018
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite imagery shows clearing line has reached a
Lawrenceburg to Nashville to Westmoreland line as clouds continue
to shift off to the east. Could see some patchy fog through about
08Z where skies have cleared due to the moist low levels. However,
after that time additional cloud cover will spread across the
area and winds in the boundary layer will being increasing to
15-20 knots, which should disrupt any fog. A few showers will also
be possible tomorrow morning over mainly our northeast counties
per latest HRRR model, but otherwise tomorrow looks like an
amazingly warm (albeit windy) late October day.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Patchy dense fog developing behind clearing line this evening.
Boundary layer wind expected to pick up later but fog likely to
TAF sites until that happens.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........07