Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/24/18

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .UPDATE... Based on HRRR and TTU wrf runs as well as model isentropic lift forecasts late tonight, was not comfortable showing no POPs for late tonight period for central zones. Extended a SLT CHC to low chc POP to include AMA to GUY for late tonight. Otherwise, still looks like bulk of the rainfall will occur after sunrise for most with a soggy Wednesday in store for most. No other significant changes. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/ AVIATION... An upper disturbance will bring widespread showers to the region from west to east late tonight and much of the day Wednesday. Cigs will lower to MVFR levels in the morning and expect IFR conditions developing around mid day again from west to east. VSBY will also be reduced to 1 to 3 miles, but main issue will be CIGs below 1000 ft. Looks like low CIGs will continue through Wed night despite rainfall ending toward the end of the forecast period. MJG PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/ SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday... Upper level trough digs closer to the Panhandles tonight and will tap into some moisture from Willa. Trough is expected to move across the Panhandles on Wednesday bringing the highest chances of precipitation. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 50s as cooler air will be in place with the trough overhead. Rain chances will pick up tonight across the western Panhandles and will continue to increase through the day on Wednesday. The southern Panhandles look to be favored for higher rainfall amounts through the event, but all areas have a very good chance to see about a quarter of an inch of rainfall. Weber LONG TERM...Thursday through mid next week A benign and seasonal pattern looks in store for the long term. Precip will be on its way out of the area by Thursday morning as the aforementioned shrtwv trough exits. Thursday highs will depend on how quickly clouds clear and western areas will be more likely to see a bit warmer readings than eastern sections. A weak NW flow upr trough may try to squeeze out a few sprinkles Thu night in the western TX Panhandle but the atmosphere will likely be a bit too dry for precip. Two warm and nice days are on tap Fri and Sat with northwest flow aloft. Fairly weak northwesterly winds at the surface Friday will back to weak southwesterlies on Saturday with speeds mainly under 15 mph making for a nice couple of days. Went with highs around ECE/MEX which was oddly well above SuperBlend temps. A cold front still looks on track to brush the area Sat night as a seasonally strong upr low spins over the Great Lakes and drags the tail end of a cold front through our area. Outside of breezy winds Sunday mornings, impacts from this front will be fairly limited with just a brief cool down expected on Sunday. Southwest flow aloft will set up early next week ahead of a midweek upr level system which shows some promise of bringing our next decent precip chances just beyond the 7 day forecast. Simpson && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 88/89
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
947 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Cooler lows from the previous update still appear to be in good shape across the north central, the Turtle Mountains, and the James River Valley. But had to bump up lows a couple degrees over the southwest and south central as warm air advection is approaching a bit quicker than initially forecast. A few weak radar echoes associated with the warm air push have developed across northwest South Dakota and continue to drift towards our south. Large dewpoint spreads would suggest it is highly unlikely that this activity is reaching the surface and the HRRR has also backed off from its earlier solution regarding a solid line of showers forming along the Missouri River Valley over the next several hours. Thus, continued to leave mention of precipitation chances out of the gridded forecast until Wednesday afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 No major changes needed for this update. Tweaked low temperatures down just a little bit overnight, especially central and north where skies should remain clear. But southeast sustained winds ranging from 12 to 17 mph will limit radiational cooling potential as a warm front approaches from Montana. The latest iterations of the HRRR and RAP are now developing a small line of showers along the southern Missouri River Valley in the 00z to 03z time frame and there are some cumulus clouds encroaching from the southwest along the 700 mb ridge axis/baroclinic zone. Not very confident that showers will develop so will leave a mention of them out at this time. Otherwise, just blended the latest observations to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Current surface analysis places high pressure settling through the Red River Valley, while lee trough remains off to the west. Upper level analysis places ridge over the northern and central plains, while a compact low is now lifting along the Idaho/Montana border. Weak short wave off to the southeast of the aforementioned low is resulting in a few weak showers over southwest South Dakota/northwest Nebraska. For cover will slowly be on the increase, primarily over southern areas, as aforementioned upper low works its way to the east. Otherwise, quiet weather continues. On Wednesday...upper low passes into the area, which may bring some light rain to central portions of the state in the afternoon, spreading east in the evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 A persistant pattern of upper level ridging to the west, and various disturbances sliding down through the plains will continue to end this week and go into early next week. This will keep temperatures seasonal and bring occasional precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Breezy southeast winds are likely to remain in place across western and central North Dakota through the overnight hours as a warm front approaches from Montana. As this boundary moves closer, elevated low level wind shear will be possible in the 03z to 13z time frame across all sites with the exception of KJMS. Winds will increase more Wednesday afternoon and gradually shift to the south behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1009 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving through New England will bring showers today, especially to northern Massachusetts, before it heads offshore tonight. Another surge of unseasonably chilly air moves into the region Thursday and Friday. A significant coastal storm may impact the region this weekend with heavy rainfall and strong coastal winds, with some wet snow or mixed precipitation possible in the interior. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 10PM update... Lingering lower lvl instability has allowed along-frontal band of rain to continue to push across the S coast this evening, with some embedded TS. These have been helped by a weakening outflow boundary as well which is now offshore. Already showing signs of low pres developing just to the E within an area of persistent convection, this will then become the primary sfc low pres as the upper shortwave pivots to the E. Dry air entrainment aloft will lead to all rain being offshore after midnight tonight, but some lingering lower clouds are likely. Latest HRRR has timing down pretty well, so updates will reflect it`s solutions. Previous Discussion... Showers lifting out however lingering mainly over N/NE MA. The surface low traversing through the region. Continued ascent upon an inflow moist-axis. The warm front lifting N as the cold front sweeps through, mechanisms that`ll keep the shower activity going but advect it more towards the N/NE. Winds backing out of the NW becoming blustery beneath the continued rotating vortmax and mid-level closed low / trof axis. Will see the low deepen as it becomes more vertically stacked, the cyclonic trowaling axis beginning to emerge out of the E, pushing W into interior N New England. Lows mainly subsequent of cold air advection, lean with consensus of forecast guidance around the upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday... Lingering showers over N/NE Massachusetts, especially the high terrain, otherwise a chilly, raw day. Trowal axis and cyclonic rearward ascent behind the closed mid-level low. Deformation back across N New England, roughly SW-NE, associated lift with the trowaling moist-axis. Otherwise blustery NW winds with cold air advection allowing for steep lapse rates, mix-down of fast winds to the surface. Gusts up around 35 mph will be possible. Broken ceilings, prefer to actually lean towards the cooler side of guidance with most areas seeing highs in the 40s, can`t rule out upper 30s for the high terrain if precipitation maintains a long duration, subsequent lower column cooling. Wednesday night... Higher confidence of clearing out, winds diminishing. Consensus of model forecast guidance has the mid-upper level disturbance exiting resulting in prevailing subsidence. Drier air working in rearward, cold air advection still continuing and lapse rates remaining steep. However pressure gradient relaxing, winds should diminish. Perhaps some lingering clouds and sprinkles along the high terrain. With the winds still on the breezy side, will stray from coldest forecast guidance. Still lean with lows well into the 30s, high terrain in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights... * Dry weather with below normal temps Thu/Fri * Rain and coastal wind Sat with some mixed precip possible interior * Unsettled with showers at times Sun/Mon Thursday into Friday... Blustery and colder weather continues as deep mid level trough east of New England slowly moves north. Diminishing wind by Fri as high pressure builds over New England. Dry weather through this period with below normal temperatures. Saturday through Tuesday... Still watching the possibility for a potent storm to bring a decent amount of rainfall to southern New England. Still have several days to work out the details. Depending upon the track and timing, there sis still the possibility for some wet snow and/or sleet. This would be mainly across the higher terrain of interior southern New England. Strongest winds still appear to be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Astronomical tides are a bit elevated this weekend. So, some minor coastal flood issues would be possible. Lots of spread with respect to low position Sunday into early next week. Unsettled weather remains possible with multiple shortwaves moving through our region. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...High confidence. Tonight... Winds shifting NW, becoming blustery through the night. With any SHRA, low-end VFR / MVFR CIGS and VSBYS. NW Gusts up around 20 kts, highest across the high terrain. Wednesday... Continued blustery NW winds, increasing gusts through the day up as high as around 30 to 35 kts. RA continued to linger N/NE of PSF-GHG, mainly over NE MA and points N/E. BKN CIGs mostly, low-end VFR / MVFR, especially lower for high terrain. Wednesday night... Blustery NW winds diminishing as do CIGs. SCT low-end VFR / MVFR more likely for high terrain with the possibility of a sprinkle. KBOS Terminal... Most RA activity around 18-20z, watching closely for +RA and SW wind gust threat along with the possibility of graupel / small hail. TEMPO for lower conditions. Monitoring for VCTS in the first 6-hours. Lower conditions and showery weather likely to linger all the way through much of Wednesday. KBDL Terminal... Mainly VCSH with SW winds today, low-end VFR CIGs with some MVFR CIGs. Bigger story starting tonight going into Wednesday will be the blustery NW winds, up around 30 kts possible during Wednesday. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Chance FZRA, slight chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Strong winds with local gusts to 40 kt. Chance RA, FZRA likely. Saturday Night: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA. Sunday: Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA, slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday Night/... High confidence. Increasing S/SE winds today and building seas as warm front lifts into CT, RI, and SE MA. Small Craft Advisories posted for all but Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay into tonight, before winds and seas subside briefly. Low pressure heads to Gulf of Maine tonight, followed by high pressure Wednesday. Winds shift to W/NW tonight and increase on Wednesday, with 25-30kt gusts expected on all waters. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain. Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain. Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain, chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ230-232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-250-254. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell NEAR TERM...Doody/Sipprell SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell MARINE...Belk/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
624 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Main forecast highlight for the next 36 hours will focus on the light to moderate rain showers set to overspread portions of the region from the southwest. Overall accumulations will be less then one quarter of an inch (if even that) with the greatest amounts and chances across the southern Nebraska Panhandle overnight into Wednesday morning. Rain and clouds will clear west to east through the day Wednesday. No hazards are expected during this period. Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate two shortwave troughs across the western CONUS with deep southwest flow occurring over the region this afternoon. The northern shortwave trough in ID will slowly shift northeast into WY/MT overnight and Wednesday while the southern trough shifts north into Colorado during that same time frame. Modest mid-level moisture and the combination of large-scale lift from the two shortwave troughs will help generate rain showers late this evening and into Wednesday morning for portions of the region. Greatest moisture depth will reside across NE Panhandle as tongue of low-level moisture stretches northward from the Central Plains and forms a dryline boundary along the Laramie Range. Greatest rain chances and amounts will be across extreme southeast WY and more so into the southern Nebraksa Panhandle as a result. Have placed highest rain chances there overnight and through mid-day Wednesday. Instability will be weak overnight so do not expect any convective rates and thus overall rainfall totals will be low and welcomed. The dryline boundary will shift east through the day with clouds and rain clearing east as well. Temperatures should recover for most of WY with downslope west winds but Sidney, NE may be on the cooler side being under more clouds and light rain into mid-day. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Upper ridge axis from British Columbia through northern CA will gradually translate eastward into the Intermountain West this weekend. A strengthening northwest flow aloft will prevail with periodic gusty winds, mainly during the daytime hours. Also, a series of weak upper level shortwaves will track southeast across northeast WY and far northwest NE Thursday night through Saturday night triggering isolated showers. Above seasonal normal temperatures will continue late this week with highs mainly in the 60s. A weak front will bring slight cooling this weekend, followed by a warmup Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 619 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 In general, VFR conditions prevail with cloud bases between 5k and 12k feet AGL. Isolated to widely scattered rain showers are likely to persist through the evening/overnight. Rain could become steady at SNY, with locally MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible after 09z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Limited fire weather concerns through Thursday but they will increase going into Friday and the weekend as drier air and much windier conditions occur across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. Before then, scattered light rain showers will develop later this evening and early morning Wednesday for mainly the High Plains of WY and NE. Only light precipitation amounts are expected with the greatest chance of rain across the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Rain will clear through the day Wednesday from west to east. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will likely be in place late week and weekend as humidity values drop to the 25-35 percent range. In addition, winds will increase from the northwest Friday upwards of 30 mph with Saturday being the windiest day with gusts upwards of 45mph possible during the afternoon across the higher terrain. Gusts of 35 mph will be possible across the High Plains as well. Stay tuned through the week as some weather headlines may be warranted. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSA LONG TERM...MAJ AVIATION...CLH FIRE WEATHER...JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1020 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface high pressure stretching across the western Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. North flow east of the high, with help from moisture fluxes off Lake Superior, is contributing to a fairly widespread strato-cu field north of highway 29, and scattered clouds to the south. Looking further west, skies clear over Minnesota closer to surface ridge axis. As this high pressure shifts east tonight, forecast concerns mainly revolve around cloud trends and temps. Tonight...High pressure will continue to slowly move east and settle over the area by 7 am Wed. Since some clouds were enhanced by diurnal heating, expect cloud cover to retreat to far northern WI by early this evening. Light winds will continue off Lake Superior for much of the night though, so think will see some clouds persist near the U.P. border through late tonight. But with diminishing winds and mostly clear skies expected for the rest of the area, lowered temps a few degrees towards met/mav guidance. Low temps should range from the lower 20s in the north to the lower 30s near the Lake. Wednesday...High pressure will remain across the area, which should result in mostly sunny skies and light winds. A few clouds near Lake Michigan will be possible. High temps will range from the mid to upper 40s over most of the area. .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Unsettled weather expected to push into the area toward the end of this week and then linger through the weekend. This will be in the form of intermittent rain showers with some light snow possibly mixing with the rain overnight in the high terrain north-central. Wednesday night into Friday: Return flow/WAA will kick in on the back side of the departing high pressure system. This will lead to increasing moisture and cloud cover across much of the CWA ahead of the next system. Most of the day Thursday is still expected to remain dry with increasing clouds; however, a mid level trough is progged to slide into the area late Thursday afternoon into the day Friday. The combination of mid/upper-level dynamics along with at least a weak Theta-E gradient across central WI will allow for an increasing chance of precipitation through this time period. Thermal profiles would suggest the precip may even hold off into the evening hours as a low to mid-level dry layer remains in place. There is enough moisture and forcing aloft that this layer should saturate by mid evening, giving the chance for mainly rain showers across most of the area. The main focus will generally remain over central WI, closer to the Theta-E gradient. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, so frozen precipitation is not anticipated. Temperatures continue to warm Friday into the upper 30s to low 40s. Any rainfall that occurs will be intermittent and light with most locations seeing less than a tenth of an inch through Friday afternoon. Friday night through Sunday: An elongated surface trough is progged to stretch across the Western Great Lakes Region Saturday into Saturday night and even into the day Sunday. At the same time, models are depicting a closed upper-level low developing to the southwest of the CWA; however, model guidance differs on the depth/strength of the upper low as well as the location. Whether the low is weaker and centered directly overhead or a bit stronger and farther south, this will definitely make for an unsettled/wet weekend. As much of the CWA is expected to remain on the warm side of these features, lower level warm air is expected to keep much of the precipitation in liquid form. Western portions of the CWA, over mainly central WI, may see QPF totals around a quarter inch, while the eastern half of the CWA will probably see a tenth of an inch or less for this time period. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Monday into Tuesday: Models are leaning toward a drying trend across the area along with clearing skies toward Monday afternoon as high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through this time period. A blend of the models was used for this time period. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1018 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 A little cloudiness lingered over the far northeast as flow continued across Lake Superior. Suspect the low clouds may eventually brush back into north-central Wisconsin as well. Otherwise, good flying conditions are anticipated as high pressure slowly crosses the region. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Cooley AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
903 PM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .DISCUSSION...Little left on radar with front passing through this evening. KMAX 88d shows only scattered light showers progressing eastward across Klamath and Lake counties this evening with nothing measureable in the past hour reported out there. Latest HRRR also indicates drying through 12z so this is the end of it for a bit despite some weak trailing shortwave energy to come through on Wednesday. Clouds is all this should amount to. Ridging and a warming atmosphere is indicated into Thursday and the current forecast handles this well with a 4-day stretch of high temperatures from the mid to upper 60s Umpqua and east side to lower and middle 70s Rogue basin and south. Stavish && .AVIATION...For the 24/00Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters, along the coast, and in the coastal valleys...The coastal waters beyond 5 NM of the coast will remain mostly VFR through Wednesday night. Closer in, areas of low MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog and rain showers with higher terrain obscured will persist into Wednesday morning, then clear to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. The lower conditions will return to the same areas Wednesday night, possibly with a bit more coverage over the nearshore coastal waters. Over the west side...Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys and local IFR cigs/vsbys with higher terrain obscured will clear to VFR by late Wednesday morning. The lower conditions will return to the same areas late Wednesday night. East of the Cascades...VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday night, but there will be some obscuration of higher terrain through Wednesday morning. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Tuesday 23 October 2018....Weak high pressure will make for lighter winds and seas tonight into Wednesday. Moderate west swell will develop Wednesday, then subside Thursday. The next front will move onshore Thursday night into Friday, and this will bring in another round of gusty south winds and steep seas. Weak high pressure will return Friday night into Saturday, then another stronger front will move onshore Sunday afternoon and evening. Heavy west swell will develop Sunday night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 PM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018/ This morning`s healthy satellite signature with the frontal band when it was offshore proved to be a sign of things to come. We`ve generally gotten a little more rain than what had been anticipated with the initial wave of precipitation moving across the west side. Thus far, we`ve picked up a hundredth of an inch here at the airport, while areas in the coastal counties have received 0.10" to 0.37". While the initial frontal band is breaking up now and is being followed by only light showers, some measurable rain should make it into the Oregon Cascades and, possibly, parts of the Shasta and Scott valleys this afternoon. Precipitation will then wind down this evening. For the remainder of the week rain chances have generally been scaled back a little, with the main rain threat along and near the coast and in the Umpqua Basin. For Sunday into Monday models have generally trended wetter, with the general idea of wetter weather moving in at the end of the month into the first week of November still looking on track. Models do continue to fluctuate with timing and details, but the general idea remains the same. -Lutz AVIATION...For the 23/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and into the coastal ranges, IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to persist mainly south of Cape Blanco for the next couple of hours. Low ceilings will lift to MVFR with local VFR as a front moves towards the coast. As the front moves onshore early this afternoon, expect rain along with widespread MVFR ceilings and mountain obscuration. Rain will end around 00 UTC, with VFR ceilings expected to last for a few hours, but low clouds and fog are expected to develop later in the evening and overnight, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities into Wednesday morning. Confidence on the timing of changes to flight categories are medium for North Bend, so watch for updates on this. Inland including the Umpqua basin, expect mainly VFR conditions to prevail into this afternoon, except for local areas of MVFR visibilities in patchy fog in the Umpqua basin for the next hour or two. Ceilings will improve to VFR as the front moves inland at Roseburg, but could not rule out partial mountain obscuration this afternoon. Stable conditions return later this evening with IFR conditions returning late tonight into Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with gusty southwest winds likely in the afternoon and early evening east of the Cascades. -Petrucelli MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 23 October 2018....The latest surface analysis shows the front right along the coast and has held together rather well up to this point. South winds will shift to the west and decrease from the outer waters to the inner waters into this evening. Even though winds will be decreasing steep wind driven seas are expected to linger for a little longer, therefore we`ll keep the small craft going until 11 pm pdt this evening. Conditions will improve tonight, with west swell continuing through Wednesday. There is good agreement the next front will approach the northern waters Thursday. It should remain north of the area, but were expecting another round of gusty south winds and steep seas. Conditions will improve by Friday morning, as high pressure builds in overhead through Saturday. Another front will move into the waters Sunday afternoon or evening. The models differ with the strength of the front Sunday which means we could be dealing with small craft conditions or low end gales over the northern waters Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. Given it`s still several days out, a lot can change regarding the details in the coming days, therefore we`ll continue to monitor. -Petrucelli FIRE WEATHER...Updated 215 PM PDT Tuesday, 23 October 2018... A fairly cohesive band of rainfall accompanied the frontal system onshore this afternoon, bringing widespread amounts of 0.10- 0.25 of an inch to the coast and just inland. The IRAWS sites at the Klondike fire reported around a tenth of an inch as of 2 pm. The band of rain is falling apart as it moves through the Umpqua/Rogue River National Forests early this afternoon, and no precipitation is expected east of the Cascades. Some gusty south to southwest winds have surfaced in advance of the front over the east side and in northern California with peak gusts so far in the 30-35 mph range. Expect these winds to continue into this evening before subsiding overnight into Wednesday. Wednesday will remain cool with a trend upward in humidity mainly from the west side Cascade foothills eastward. Humidity will trend downward a bit, however, at coastal sites and the adjacent coast ranges. Precipitation with Thursday`s impulse will largely remain to the north and west of the area now, so we`ve trended the forecast drier and warmer with lower humidity. Some rain may graze far NW coastal sections. Models do show a front brushing the area Thursday night into Friday, with some rain along the coast and into portions of the Umpqua, but it is unlikely to produce much, if any, rain south and east of those areas. Overall, we expect a warming and drying trend this weekend with temperatures getting back to about 5- 15 degrees above normal. Guidance is still in agreement that a wetter front (mainly Cascades west) will arrive late Sunday into Monday with a cool down and higher humidities expected early next week. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
929 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .UPDATE... Tonight...The mid-upper level winds have been veering to the northwest as a trough over the eastern seaboard shifts east. This has spread extensive mid-high level cloudiness that was over the deep south into most of east central Florida. A weak inverted surface trough near the coast should keep most Atlantic shower activity offshore, but with a quite moist air mass in place, cannot rule out small coastal PoPs. The highest chance will be across the north coast, and will leave 30-40% there. Some light rain falling out of the mid level cloud deck across the north should diminish after midnight. Little change to the current forecast is planned. && .AVIATION...A weak inverted trough is keeping the atmosphere quite moist especially from around Cape Canaveral northward. KTIX-KDAB could experience showers overnight, but presently radar shows the activity well offshore. There could also be some stratus forming late at the interior terminals, especially if mid/high level cloudiness diminishes some like the GFS is suggesting. There`s not enough confidence to place that in the TAFs yet. On Tue, little change in the rather light northeast low level flow is indicated. Expect low shower chances again, especially across the north during daytime heating. && .MARINE... Tonight-Wednesday...An inverted trough near the coast will provide a northerly wind flow which the models show around 10 knots over most of the continental shelf waters. Buoy 41009 recently had an increase to around 15 knots, so will have to watch trends because the models haven`t been showing any increase until Wed afternoon. Recent HRRR model runs have shown an increase in coverage of showers overnight into Wed morning near the inverted trough just offshore. Not planning to change the current forecast much. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Lascody IMPACT WEATHER...Negron/Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
907 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Updated the precipitation forecast for later tonight into Wednesday morning. The latest high-res model guidance continues to shift the upper disturbance a bit west, bringing the heaviest precipitation north along the I-25 corridor after 3 am and into the morning hours. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for the next 12 or so hours as far as temperatures and wind are concerned. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Currently... Except for a high thin cirrus deck, most of the plains at 2 pm were clear. Farther west over the higher terrain, more cloudiness was noted in advance of a moist short wave that was moving towards the region from CA. Regional radar showed an abundant amount of showers over eastern AZ and the western 2/3rds of NM. Moisture in the atmospheric column in advance of this system, per morning soundings, was running about 150% above normal. Tonight and tomorrow... Latest runs of the 18Z NAM and 18Z HRRR (which goes out to 36 hours) are much hotter with the qpf than earlier runs. Prior runs were drier and had very little precip on the plains tonight (and had less qpf over the mtns). However these latest 2 runs have the precip coming out over the eastern half of the plains later tonight and are higher with the qpf over the mtns. I don`t know how much stock to put into this latest 18Z guidance, but I did increase the pops at the last minute and increased the QPF over the region for tomorrow. If later runs continue to show trends of the 18Z data, then pops will have to be increased upward and qpf values will need to be increased over the region for upcoming 24 hours. For now, relatively high pops are in the forecast for most of the region for tonight and tomorrow, but values farther north over the central mtns and Pikes Peak area may have to be increased by the incoming shift. Either way, Expect lots of clouds and precip over the mtns tonight and low clouds and precip over the plains later tonight and tomorrow. It still looks like the best overall heaviest precip will be generally south and east of the Pueblo area, and these regions may see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain. Snow will fall in the mtns...but it will be above 9500 feet. Some of it could be rather wet and heavy, especially over the Sangres and on top of the Wets. /Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Wednesday night through Friday...The upper low pressure system will be tracking across the eastern half of the state Wed evening, with the trough axis forecast to exit the state by midnight and continue eastward. This movement indicates pcpn activity tapering off from west to east through the evening, with much of the activity ending by midnight and shutting off completely by 6 am Thu morning as northwest flow then settles in. However, after a brief break Thu morning, another fast-moving disturbance will track across the northeastern corner of the state and prompt some shower development over the higher terrain Thu aftn and eve. Conditions then dry out Fri. Look for highs in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and in the 60s to near 70F for the plains. Saturday through Monday...Upper ridge over the desert southwest will provide for warm and dry conditions across the forecast area over the weekend, though a disturbance over the Dakotas may push a weak cold front back into the eastern Colorado plains for Sun. Look for highs in the 60s for most locations all three days, though max temps will be pushing 70F across the plains on Sat and Mon. Temps on Sun are forecast to be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler. Tuesday...Both the GFS and EC indicate that a longwave trough of low pressure will cross the Rocky Mt region starting Tue, bringing pcpn chances back to the mts by early Tue morning. Looking forward to Halloween, both models are trending towards pcpn spreading to the plains late Tue into Wed. For now, expect highs in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and in the 60s for the plains. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Low cigs will be likely across all taf sites starting later this evening and lasting into tomorrow, clearing during tomorrow afternoon. Precip will be liquid all areas. MVFR/IFR cigs likely by early morning hours lasting into late tomorrow morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH