Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/24/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
932 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.UPDATE...
Based on HRRR and TTU wrf runs as well as model isentropic lift
forecasts late tonight, was not comfortable showing no POPs for
late tonight period for central zones. Extended a SLT CHC to low
chc POP to include AMA to GUY for late tonight. Otherwise, still
looks like bulk of the rainfall will occur after sunrise for most
with a soggy Wednesday in store for most. No other significant
changes.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/
AVIATION...
An upper disturbance will bring widespread showers to the region
from west to east late tonight and much of the day Wednesday. Cigs
will lower to MVFR levels in the morning and expect IFR conditions
developing around mid day again from west to east. VSBY will also
be reduced to 1 to 3 miles, but main issue will be CIGs below 1000
ft. Looks like low CIGs will continue through Wed night despite
rainfall ending toward the end of the forecast period.
MJG
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
Upper level trough digs closer to the Panhandles tonight and will tap
into some moisture from Willa. Trough is expected to move across
the Panhandles on Wednesday bringing the highest chances of
precipitation. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 50s as
cooler air will be in place with the trough overhead. Rain chances
will pick up tonight across the western Panhandles and will continue
to increase through the day on Wednesday. The southern Panhandles
look to be favored for higher rainfall amounts through the event,
but all areas have a very good chance to see about a quarter of an
inch of rainfall.
Weber
LONG TERM...Thursday through mid next week
A benign and seasonal pattern looks in store for the long term.
Precip will be on its way out of the area by Thursday morning as
the aforementioned shrtwv trough exits. Thursday highs will depend
on how quickly clouds clear and western areas will be more likely
to see a bit warmer readings than eastern sections.
A weak NW flow upr trough may try to squeeze out a few sprinkles Thu
night in the western TX Panhandle but the atmosphere will likely
be a bit too dry for precip.
Two warm and nice days are on tap Fri and Sat with northwest flow
aloft. Fairly weak northwesterly winds at the surface Friday will
back to weak southwesterlies on Saturday with speeds mainly under 15
mph making for a nice couple of days. Went with highs around
ECE/MEX which was oddly well above SuperBlend temps.
A cold front still looks on track to brush the area Sat night as a
seasonally strong upr low spins over the Great Lakes and drags the
tail end of a cold front through our area. Outside of breezy winds
Sunday mornings, impacts from this front will be fairly limited with
just a brief cool down expected on Sunday.
Southwest flow aloft will set up early next week ahead of a midweek
upr level system which shows some promise of bringing our next
decent precip chances just beyond the 7 day forecast.
Simpson
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
88/89
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
947 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Cooler lows from the previous update still appear to be in good
shape across the north central, the Turtle Mountains, and the
James River Valley. But had to bump up lows a couple degrees over
the southwest and south central as warm air advection is
approaching a bit quicker than initially forecast. A few weak
radar echoes associated with the warm air push have developed
across northwest South Dakota and continue to drift towards our
south. Large dewpoint spreads would suggest it is highly unlikely
that this activity is reaching the surface and the HRRR has also
backed off from its earlier solution regarding a solid line of
showers forming along the Missouri River Valley over the next
several hours. Thus, continued to leave mention of precipitation
chances out of the gridded forecast until Wednesday afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
No major changes needed for this update. Tweaked low temperatures
down just a little bit overnight, especially central and north
where skies should remain clear. But southeast sustained winds
ranging from 12 to 17 mph will limit radiational cooling potential
as a warm front approaches from Montana. The latest iterations of
the HRRR and RAP are now developing a small line of showers along
the southern Missouri River Valley in the 00z to 03z time frame
and there are some cumulus clouds encroaching from the southwest
along the 700 mb ridge axis/baroclinic zone. Not very confident
that showers will develop so will leave a mention of them out at
this time. Otherwise, just blended the latest observations to the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Current surface analysis places high pressure settling through the
Red River Valley, while lee trough remains off to the west. Upper
level analysis places ridge over the northern and central plains,
while a compact low is now lifting along the Idaho/Montana border.
Weak short wave off to the southeast of the aforementioned low is
resulting in a few weak showers over southwest South
Dakota/northwest Nebraska.
For tonight...cloud cover will slowly be on the increase,
primarily over southern areas, as aforementioned upper low works
its way to the east. Otherwise, quiet weather continues.
On Wednesday...upper low passes into the area, which may bring
some light rain to central portions of the state in the afternoon,
spreading east in the evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
A persistant pattern of upper level ridging to the west, and
various disturbances sliding down through the plains will continue
to end this week and go into early next week. This will keep
temperatures seasonal and bring occasional precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Breezy southeast winds are likely to remain in place across
western and central North Dakota through the overnight hours as a
warm front approaches from Montana. As this boundary moves closer,
elevated low level wind shear will be possible in the 03z to 13z
time frame across all sites with the exception of KJMS. Winds will
increase more Wednesday afternoon and gradually shift to the
south behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold
front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF
forecast period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1009 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through New England will bring showers today,
especially to northern Massachusetts, before it heads offshore
tonight. Another surge of unseasonably chilly air moves into the
region Thursday and Friday. A significant coastal storm may impact
the region this weekend with heavy rainfall and strong coastal
winds, with some wet snow or mixed precipitation possible in the
interior.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10PM update...
Lingering lower lvl instability has allowed along-frontal band
of rain to continue to push across the S coast this evening,
with some embedded TS. These have been helped by a weakening
outflow boundary as well which is now offshore.
Already showing signs of low pres developing just to the E
within an area of persistent convection, this will then become
the primary sfc low pres as the upper shortwave pivots to the E.
Dry air entrainment aloft will lead to all rain being offshore
after midnight tonight, but some lingering lower clouds are
likely. Latest HRRR has timing down pretty well, so updates will
reflect it`s solutions.
Previous Discussion...
Showers lifting out however lingering mainly over N/NE MA. The
surface low traversing through the region. Continued ascent
upon an inflow moist-axis. The warm front lifting N as the cold
front sweeps through, mechanisms that`ll keep the shower
activity going but advect it more towards the N/NE. Winds
backing out of the NW becoming blustery beneath the continued
rotating vortmax and mid-level closed low / trof axis. Will see
the low deepen as it becomes more vertically stacked, the
cyclonic trowaling axis beginning to emerge out of the E,
pushing W into interior N New England. Lows mainly subsequent of
cold air advection, lean with consensus of forecast guidance
around the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...
Lingering showers over N/NE Massachusetts, especially the high
terrain, otherwise a chilly, raw day. Trowal axis and cyclonic
rearward ascent behind the closed mid-level low. Deformation
back across N New England, roughly SW-NE, associated lift with
the trowaling moist-axis. Otherwise blustery NW winds with cold
air advection allowing for steep lapse rates, mix-down of fast
winds to the surface. Gusts up around 35 mph will be possible.
Broken ceilings, prefer to actually lean towards the cooler side
of guidance with most areas seeing highs in the 40s, can`t rule
out upper 30s for the high terrain if precipitation maintains a
long duration, subsequent lower column cooling.
Wednesday night...
Higher confidence of clearing out, winds diminishing. Consensus
of model forecast guidance has the mid-upper level disturbance
exiting resulting in prevailing subsidence. Drier air working in
rearward, cold air advection still continuing and lapse rates
remaining steep. However pressure gradient relaxing, winds should
diminish. Perhaps some lingering clouds and sprinkles along the
high terrain. With the winds still on the breezy side, will stray
from coldest forecast guidance. Still lean with lows well into
the 30s, high terrain in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Dry weather with below normal temps Thu/Fri
* Rain and coastal wind Sat with some mixed precip possible interior
* Unsettled with showers at times Sun/Mon
Thursday into Friday...
Blustery and colder weather continues as deep mid level trough
east of New England slowly moves north. Diminishing wind by Fri
as high pressure builds over New England. Dry weather through
this period with below normal temperatures.
Saturday through Tuesday...
Still watching the possibility for a potent storm to bring a
decent amount of rainfall to southern New England. Still have
several days to work out the details. Depending upon the track
and timing, there sis still the possibility for some wet snow
and/or sleet. This would be mainly across the higher terrain of
interior southern New England. Strongest winds still appear to
be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Astronomical tides are a bit elevated this weekend. So, some
minor coastal flood issues would be possible.
Lots of spread with respect to low position Sunday into early
next week. Unsettled weather remains possible with multiple
shortwaves moving through our region.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Wednesday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight...
Winds shifting NW, becoming blustery through the night. With
any SHRA, low-end VFR / MVFR CIGS and VSBYS. NW Gusts up around
20 kts, highest across the high terrain.
Wednesday...
Continued blustery NW winds, increasing gusts through the day up
as high as around 30 to 35 kts. RA continued to linger N/NE of
PSF-GHG, mainly over NE MA and points N/E. BKN CIGs mostly,
low-end VFR / MVFR, especially lower for high terrain.
Wednesday night...
Blustery NW winds diminishing as do CIGs. SCT low-end VFR / MVFR
more likely for high terrain with the possibility of a sprinkle.
KBOS Terminal...
Most RA activity around 18-20z, watching closely for +RA and SW
wind gust threat along with the possibility of graupel / small
hail. TEMPO for lower conditions. Monitoring for VCTS in the
first 6-hours. Lower conditions and showery weather likely to
linger all the way through much of Wednesday.
KBDL Terminal...
Mainly VCSH with SW winds today, low-end VFR CIGs with some MVFR
CIGs. Bigger story starting tonight going into Wednesday will be
the blustery NW winds, up around 30 kts possible during Wednesday.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Chance FZRA, slight chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts to 40 kt. Chance RA, FZRA likely.
Saturday Night: MVFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA.
Sunday: Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance RA, slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Wednesday Night/... High confidence.
Increasing S/SE winds today and building seas as warm front lifts
into CT, RI, and SE MA. Small Craft Advisories posted for all but
Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay into tonight, before winds and
seas subside briefly. Low pressure heads to Gulf of Maine tonight,
followed by high pressure Wednesday. Winds shift to W/NW tonight and
increase on Wednesday, with 25-30kt gusts expected on all
waters.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday through Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain.
Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 17 ft. Chance of rain, chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
for ANZ230-232>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
for ANZ235-237-250-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
624 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Main forecast highlight for the next 36 hours will focus on the
light to moderate rain showers set to overspread portions of the
region from the southwest. Overall accumulations will be less then
one quarter of an inch (if even that) with the greatest amounts
and chances across the southern Nebraska Panhandle overnight into
Wednesday morning. Rain and clouds will clear west to east through
the day Wednesday. No hazards are expected during this period.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate two shortwave
troughs across the western CONUS with deep southwest flow
occurring over the region this afternoon. The northern shortwave
trough in ID will slowly shift northeast into WY/MT overnight and
Wednesday while the southern trough shifts north into Colorado
during that same time frame. Modest mid-level moisture and the
combination of large-scale lift from the two shortwave troughs
will help generate rain showers late this evening and into
Wednesday morning for portions of the region. Greatest moisture
depth will reside across NE Panhandle as tongue of low-level
moisture stretches northward from the Central Plains and forms a
dryline boundary along the Laramie Range. Greatest rain chances
and amounts will be across extreme southeast WY and more so into
the southern Nebraksa Panhandle as a result. Have placed highest
rain chances there overnight and through mid-day Wednesday.
Instability will be weak overnight so do not expect any convective
rates and thus overall rainfall totals will be low and welcomed.
The dryline boundary will shift east through the day with clouds
and rain clearing east as well. Temperatures should recover for
most of WY with downslope west winds but Sidney, NE may be on the
cooler side being under more clouds and light rain into mid-day.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Upper ridge axis from British Columbia through northern CA will
gradually translate eastward into the Intermountain West this
weekend. A strengthening northwest flow aloft will prevail with
periodic gusty winds, mainly during the daytime hours. Also, a
series of weak upper level shortwaves will track southeast across
northeast WY and far northwest NE Thursday night through Saturday
night triggering isolated showers. Above seasonal normal temperatures
will continue late this week with highs mainly in the 60s. A weak
front will bring slight cooling this weekend, followed by a warmup
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 619 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
In general, VFR conditions prevail with cloud bases between 5k and
12k feet AGL. Isolated to widely scattered rain showers are likely
to persist through the evening/overnight. Rain could become steady
at SNY, with locally MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible after
09z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Limited fire weather concerns through Thursday but they will increase
going into Friday and the weekend as drier air and much windier
conditions occur across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle.
Before then, scattered light rain showers will develop later this
evening and early morning Wednesday for mainly the High Plains of WY
and NE. Only light precipitation amounts are expected with the greatest
chance of rain across the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Rain will clear
through the day Wednesday from west to east.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will likely be in
place late week and weekend as humidity values drop to the 25-35
percent range. In addition, winds will increase from the northwest
Friday upwards of 30 mph with Saturday being the windiest day with
gusts upwards of 45mph possible during the afternoon across the
higher terrain. Gusts of 35 mph will be possible across the High
Plains as well. Stay tuned through the week as some weather headlines
may be warranted.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JSA
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...JSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1020 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface
high pressure stretching across the western Mississippi Valley
early this afternoon. North flow east of the high, with help from
moisture fluxes off Lake Superior, is contributing to a fairly
widespread strato-cu field north of highway 29, and scattered
clouds to the south. Looking further west, skies clear over
Minnesota closer to surface ridge axis. As this high pressure
shifts east tonight, forecast concerns mainly revolve around cloud
trends and temps.
Tonight...High pressure will continue to slowly move east and
settle over the area by 7 am Wed. Since some clouds were enhanced
by diurnal heating, expect cloud cover to retreat to far northern
WI by early this evening. Light winds will continue off Lake
Superior for much of the night though, so think will see some
clouds persist near the U.P. border through late tonight. But with
diminishing winds and mostly clear skies expected for the rest of
the area, lowered temps a few degrees towards met/mav guidance.
Low temps should range from the lower 20s in the north to the
lower 30s near the Lake.
Wednesday...High pressure will remain across the area, which
should result in mostly sunny skies and light winds. A few clouds
near Lake Michigan will be possible. High temps will range from
the mid to upper 40s over most of the area.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Unsettled weather expected to push into the area toward the end of
this week and then linger through the weekend. This will be in the
form of intermittent rain showers with some light snow possibly
mixing with the rain overnight in the high terrain north-central.
Wednesday night into Friday: Return flow/WAA will kick in on the
back side of the departing high pressure system. This will lead to
increasing moisture and cloud cover across much of the CWA ahead of
the next system. Most of the day Thursday is still expected to
remain dry with increasing clouds; however, a mid level trough is
progged to slide into the area late Thursday afternoon into the day
Friday. The combination of mid/upper-level dynamics along with at
least a weak Theta-E gradient across central WI will allow for an
increasing chance of precipitation through this time period. Thermal
profiles would suggest the precip may even hold off into the evening
hours as a low to mid-level dry layer remains in place. There is
enough moisture and forcing aloft that this layer should saturate by
mid evening, giving the chance for mainly rain showers across most
of the area. The main focus will generally remain over central WI,
closer to the Theta-E gradient. Temperatures are expected to remain
above freezing, so frozen precipitation is not anticipated.
Temperatures continue to warm Friday into the upper 30s to low 40s.
Any rainfall that occurs will be intermittent and light with most
locations seeing less than a tenth of an inch through Friday
afternoon.
Friday night through Sunday: An elongated surface trough is progged
to stretch across the Western Great Lakes Region Saturday into
Saturday night and even into the day Sunday. At the same time,
models are depicting a closed upper-level low developing to the
southwest of the CWA; however, model guidance differs on the
depth/strength of the upper low as well as the location. Whether the
low is weaker and centered directly overhead or a bit stronger and
farther south, this will definitely make for an unsettled/wet
weekend. As much of the CWA is expected to remain on the warm side
of these features, lower level warm air is expected to keep much of
the precipitation in liquid form. Western portions of the CWA, over
mainly central WI, may see QPF totals around a quarter inch, while
the eastern half of the CWA will probably see a tenth of an inch or
less for this time period. Temperatures will remain below normal
with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Monday into Tuesday: Models are leaning toward a drying trend across
the area along with clearing skies toward Monday afternoon as high
pressure builds into the area. Temperatures are expected to remain
below normal through this time period. A blend of the models was
used for this time period.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
A little cloudiness lingered over the far northeast as flow
continued across Lake Superior. Suspect the low clouds may
eventually brush back into north-central Wisconsin as well.
Otherwise, good flying conditions are anticipated as high
pressure slowly crosses the region.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Cooley
AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
903 PM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.DISCUSSION...Little left on radar with front passing through this
evening. KMAX 88d shows only scattered light showers progressing
eastward across Klamath and Lake counties this evening with
nothing measureable in the past hour reported out there. Latest
HRRR also indicates drying through 12z so this is the end of it
for a bit despite some weak trailing shortwave energy to come
through on Wednesday. Clouds is all this should amount to. Ridging
and a warming atmosphere is indicated into Thursday and the
current forecast handles this well with a 4-day stretch of high
temperatures from the mid to upper 60s Umpqua and east side to
lower and middle 70s Rogue basin and south. Stavish
&&
.AVIATION...For the 24/00Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters, along the
coast, and in the coastal valleys...The coastal waters beyond 5 NM
of the coast will remain mostly VFR through Wednesday night. Closer
in, areas of low MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog and rain showers with
higher terrain obscured will persist into Wednesday morning, then
clear to VFR by Wednesday afternoon. The lower conditions will
return to the same areas Wednesday night, possibly with a bit more
coverage over the nearshore coastal waters. Over the west
side...Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys and local IFR cigs/vsbys with higher
terrain obscured will clear to VFR by late Wednesday morning. The
lower conditions will return to the same areas late Wednesday night.
East of the Cascades...VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday
night, but there will be some obscuration of higher terrain through
Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Tuesday 23 October 2018....Weak high
pressure will make for lighter winds and seas tonight into
Wednesday. Moderate west swell will develop Wednesday, then
subside Thursday. The next front will move onshore Thursday night
into Friday, and this will bring in another round of gusty south
winds and steep seas. Weak high pressure will return Friday night
into Saturday, then another stronger front will move onshore
Sunday afternoon and evening. Heavy west swell will develop Sunday
night.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 PM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018/ This
morning`s healthy satellite signature with the frontal band when
it was offshore proved to be a sign of things to come. We`ve
generally gotten a little more rain than what had been anticipated
with the initial wave of precipitation moving across the west
side. Thus far, we`ve picked up a hundredth of an inch here at the
airport, while areas in the coastal counties have received 0.10"
to 0.37". While the initial frontal band is breaking up now and is
being followed by only light showers, some measurable rain should
make it into the Oregon Cascades and, possibly, parts of the
Shasta and Scott valleys this afternoon. Precipitation will then
wind down this evening.
For the remainder of the week rain chances have generally been
scaled back a little, with the main rain threat along and near the
coast and in the Umpqua Basin.
For Sunday into Monday models have generally trended wetter, with
the general idea of wetter weather moving in at the end of the
month into the first week of November still looking on track.
Models do continue to fluctuate with timing and details, but the
general idea remains the same. -Lutz
AVIATION...For the 23/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and into the
coastal ranges, IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to persist mainly
south of Cape Blanco for the next couple of hours. Low ceilings will
lift to MVFR with local VFR as a front moves towards the coast. As
the front moves onshore early this afternoon, expect rain along with
widespread MVFR ceilings and mountain obscuration. Rain will end
around 00 UTC, with VFR ceilings expected to last for a few hours,
but low clouds and fog are expected to develop later in the evening
and overnight, resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities into
Wednesday morning. Confidence on the timing of changes to flight
categories are medium for North Bend, so watch for updates on this.
Inland including the Umpqua basin, expect mainly VFR conditions to
prevail into this afternoon, except for local areas of MVFR
visibilities in patchy fog in the Umpqua basin for the next hour or
two. Ceilings will improve to VFR as the front moves inland at
Roseburg, but could not rule out partial mountain obscuration this
afternoon. Stable conditions return later this evening with IFR
conditions returning late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
gusty southwest winds likely in the afternoon and early evening east
of the Cascades. -Petrucelli
MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 23 October 2018....The latest
surface analysis shows the front right along the coast and has
held together rather well up to this point. South winds will shift
to the west and decrease from the outer waters to the inner
waters into this evening. Even though winds will be decreasing
steep wind driven seas are expected to linger for a little longer,
therefore we`ll keep the small craft going until 11 pm pdt this
evening.
Conditions will improve tonight, with west swell continuing through
Wednesday. There is good agreement the next front will approach the
northern waters Thursday. It should remain north of the area, but
were expecting another round of gusty south winds and steep seas.
Conditions will improve by Friday morning, as high pressure builds
in overhead through Saturday. Another front will move into the
waters Sunday afternoon or evening. The models differ with the
strength of the front Sunday which means we could be dealing with
small craft conditions or low end gales over the northern waters
Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening. Given it`s still several
days out, a lot can change regarding the details in the coming
days, therefore we`ll continue to monitor. -Petrucelli
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 215 PM PDT Tuesday, 23 October 2018...
A fairly cohesive band of rainfall accompanied the frontal system
onshore this afternoon, bringing widespread amounts of 0.10-
0.25 of an inch to the coast and just inland. The IRAWS sites at the
Klondike fire reported around a tenth of an inch as of 2 pm. The
band of rain is falling apart as it moves through the Umpqua/Rogue
River National Forests early this afternoon, and no precipitation is
expected east of the Cascades. Some gusty south to southwest winds
have surfaced in advance of the front over the east side and in
northern California with peak gusts so far in the 30-35 mph range.
Expect these winds to continue into this evening before subsiding
overnight into Wednesday. Wednesday will remain cool with a trend
upward in humidity mainly from the west side Cascade foothills
eastward. Humidity will trend downward a bit, however, at coastal
sites and the adjacent coast ranges.
Precipitation with Thursday`s impulse will largely remain to the
north and west of the area now, so we`ve trended the forecast drier
and warmer with lower humidity. Some rain may graze far NW coastal
sections. Models do show a front brushing the area Thursday
night into Friday, with some rain along the coast and into
portions of the Umpqua, but it is unlikely to produce much, if any,
rain south and east of those areas. Overall, we expect a warming and
drying trend this weekend with temperatures getting back to about 5-
15 degrees above normal. Guidance is still in agreement that
a wetter front (mainly Cascades west) will arrive late Sunday into
Monday with a cool down and higher humidities expected early next
week. -Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
929 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.UPDATE...
Tonight...The mid-upper level winds have been veering to the
northwest as a trough over the eastern seaboard shifts east. This
has spread extensive mid-high level cloudiness that was over the
deep south into most of east central Florida. A weak inverted
surface trough near the coast should keep most Atlantic shower
activity offshore, but with a quite moist air mass in place, cannot
rule out small coastal PoPs. The highest chance will be across the
north coast, and will leave 30-40% there. Some light rain falling
out of the mid level cloud deck across the north should diminish
after midnight.
Little change to the current forecast is planned.
&&
.AVIATION...A weak inverted trough is keeping the atmosphere quite
moist especially from around Cape Canaveral northward. KTIX-KDAB
could experience showers overnight, but presently radar shows the
activity well offshore. There could also be some stratus forming
late at the interior terminals, especially if mid/high level
cloudiness diminishes some like the GFS is suggesting. There`s not
enough confidence to place that in the TAFs yet. On Tue, little
change in the rather light northeast low level flow is indicated.
Expect low shower chances again, especially across the north during
daytime heating.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Wednesday...An inverted trough near the coast will provide a
northerly wind flow which the models show around 10 knots over most
of the continental shelf waters. Buoy 41009 recently had an
increase to around 15 knots, so will have to watch trends because
the models haven`t been showing any increase until Wed afternoon.
Recent HRRR model runs have shown an increase in coverage of showers
overnight into Wed morning near the inverted trough just offshore.
Not planning to change the current forecast much.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Lascody
IMPACT WEATHER...Negron/Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
907 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Updated the precipitation forecast for later tonight into
Wednesday morning. The latest high-res model guidance continues to
shift the upper disturbance a bit west, bringing the heaviest
precipitation north along the I-25 corridor after 3 am and into
the morning hours. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for the
next 12 or so hours as far as temperatures and wind are concerned.
Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Currently...
Except for a high thin cirrus deck, most of the plains at 2 pm were
clear. Farther west over the higher terrain, more cloudiness was
noted in advance of a moist short wave that was moving towards the
region from CA. Regional radar showed an abundant amount of showers
over eastern AZ and the western 2/3rds of NM. Moisture in the
atmospheric column in advance of this system, per morning soundings,
was running about 150% above normal.
Tonight and tomorrow...
Latest runs of the 18Z NAM and 18Z HRRR (which goes out to 36 hours)
are much hotter with the qpf than earlier runs. Prior runs were
drier and had very little precip on the plains tonight (and had less
qpf over the mtns). However these latest 2 runs have the precip
coming out over the eastern half of the plains later tonight and
are higher with the qpf over the mtns. I don`t know how much stock
to put into this latest 18Z guidance, but I did increase the pops at
the last minute and increased the QPF over the region for tomorrow.
If later runs continue to show trends of the 18Z data, then pops
will have to be increased upward and qpf values will need to be
increased over the region for upcoming 24 hours. For now, relatively
high pops are in the forecast for most of the region for tonight and
tomorrow, but values farther north over the central mtns and Pikes
Peak area may have to be increased by the incoming shift.
Either way, Expect lots of clouds and precip over the mtns tonight
and low clouds and precip over the plains later tonight and
tomorrow. It still looks like the best overall heaviest precip will
be generally south and east of the Pueblo area, and these regions
may see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain. Snow will fall in the
mtns...but it will be above 9500 feet. Some of it could be rather
wet and heavy, especially over the Sangres and on top of the Wets.
/Hodanish
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Wednesday night through Friday...The upper low pressure system will
be tracking across the eastern half of the state Wed evening, with
the trough axis forecast to exit the state by midnight and continue
eastward. This movement indicates pcpn activity tapering off from
west to east through the evening, with much of the activity ending
by midnight and shutting off completely by 6 am Thu morning as
northwest flow then settles in. However, after a brief break Thu
morning, another fast-moving disturbance will track across the
northeastern corner of the state and prompt some shower development
over the higher terrain Thu aftn and eve. Conditions then dry out
Fri. Look for highs in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high
valleys, and in the 60s to near 70F for the plains.
Saturday through Monday...Upper ridge over the desert southwest will
provide for warm and dry conditions across the forecast area over
the weekend, though a disturbance over the Dakotas may push a weak
cold front back into the eastern Colorado plains for Sun. Look for
highs in the 60s for most locations all three days, though max temps
will be pushing 70F across the plains on Sat and Mon. Temps on Sun
are forecast to be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler.
Tuesday...Both the GFS and EC indicate that a longwave trough of low
pressure will cross the Rocky Mt region starting Tue, bringing pcpn
chances back to the mts by early Tue morning. Looking forward to
Halloween, both models are trending towards pcpn spreading to the
plains late Tue into Wed. For now, expect highs in the mid 50s to
around 60F for the high valleys, and in the 60s for the plains.
Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018
Low cigs will be likely across all taf sites starting later this
evening and lasting into tomorrow, clearing during tomorrow
afternoon. Precip will be liquid all areas. MVFR/IFR cigs likely by
early morning hours lasting into late tomorrow morning.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH