Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/23/18


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
953 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... More unsettled weather with rain showers and high elevation rain or snow showers, is expected through Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes and crosses our region by Tuesday evening. Drier weather is expected for much of the region for the second half of Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short range guidance from the HRRR and RAP suggests that precipitation will be the light to non-existent side tonight. Thus have lowered pops to slight chance/low chance category into Tuesday morning. Otherwise no changes made to the forecast except to update with current observations. For the rest of tonight and Tuesday a low pressure system will track from the upper Great Lakes towards our region dragging the warm front through the region late tonight and Tuesday morning followed by a cold front for late Tuesday as the low pressure system moves into western New England. It will become unsettled with showers moving into the region during the overnight hours and continuing through the day on Tuesday. While most of the precipitation will be in the form of rain. Some light snow is possible across the western Adirondacks late tonight into Tuesday morning. Amounts at this time look to be light with generally only a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation expected across the western Adirondacks. Total liquid equivalents look to be on the low side as well with only a tenth to a third of an inch in most places. Lows tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 with highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... For Tuesday night and Wednesday an area of high pressure will be building east from the upper Great Lakes as low pressure departs eastward from the Canadian Maritimes. There will still be chances for showers Tuesday night across much of the region thanks to an upper level trough crossing the region. The coverage of showers will be much less on Wednesday mainly confined to the northern half of the forecast area. It will be cold enough such that some of the showers especially across the northern mountains will be in the form of snow. However, due to very little moisture in place with the upper trough any accumulation will be minimal, generally an inch or less with the greatest accumulations across the western Adirondacks and high terrain of the southern Green Mountains. Expect Wednesday to be a windy day as a strong pressure gradient will be across the area between the departing surface low and high pressure in the Great Lakes region. Wind gusts may top 35 mph at times. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to around 40 with highs on Wednesday in the mid 30s to around 50. Wednesday night and Thursday are expected to be mainly dry with the exception of a few rain or snow showers across the northern portions of the western Adirondacks Wednesday night. It will continue to be chilly with lows Wednesday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s and highs on Thursday in the upper 20s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High temperatures will remain well below normal, with low temperatures first below normal, then near normal toward the end of the period, with diminishing winds and radiational cooling resulting in widespread temperatures in the 20s Thursday night which will be almost repeated again for Friday, albeit slightly milder with clouds on the increase. The lack of sunshine going into the weekend followed by a good chance for rain, snow or a mix during the weekend will keep the high temperatures in the 30s and 40s throughout. Low pressure developing off the southeast coast will get close enough to bring precipitation...mainly rain...to our zones as early as Saturday. It is expected to eventually track up into New England and merge forces with a system originating in Saskatchewan. However, this is more likely to affect points to our east, so some improvement in our weather might be expected during the early part of the work week. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looking at VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. Weak low pressure accompanied by a trough aloft will swing across the terminals on Tuesday. For now precipitation (all rain) is trending toward the light side. Thus no lower than 6SM in SHRA forecast at all terminals ex KPOU where no precipitation is forecast. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN. && .FIRE WEATHER... More unsettled weather with rain showers and high elevation rain or snow showers, is expected through Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes and crosses our region by Tuesday evening. Drier weather is expected for much of the region for the second half of Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds east from the Great Lakes region. Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, drop to 60 to 80 percent on Tuesday, recover to 85 to 100 percent Tuesday night, and fall to 50 to 75 percent on Wednesday. Winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight and Tuesday, and west 5 to 15 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds on Wednesday may gust over 30 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week. A disturbance looks to bring scattered to numerous showers later tonight and Tuesday. Some snow is expected to mix in across the higher terrain. Only light precipitation is expected with total liquid equivalent amounts a tenth to a third of an inch. After a few more rain/snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, dry weather is expected the rest of the week with the next chance for some wet weather occurring over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VTK/11 NEAR TERM...OKeefe/11 SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...OKeefe FIRE WEATHER...MSE/11 HYDROLOGY...MSE/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
649 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 This afternoon a cold front was located across northeast Missouri and into central Illinois. Behind this front, temperatures held in the 60s, but dewpoints dropped dramatically into the upper to low 30s. This has led to relatively cooler sensible weather even though temperatures are in the 60s across the area. These low dewpoints along with high pressure behind the cold front will lead to the short term weather. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 High pressure will be the main driver of the short term weather as temperatures look to be the main forecast concern. CAA will result in cooler temperatures tonight and tomorrow as H85 temps drop from 10C to 2C by tomorrow AM. This will lead to temps in the low to mid 30s tonight and in the 50s tomorrow. A look at all the guidance shows that most of the forecast highs are within plus or minus 3 of what the superblend has. As a result, went with superblend for temps. As for low temps, superblend seems to be on the warm side of guidance. With crashing dewpoints today seems as though going with the low side of guidance is a good idea. Went with a blend of the RAP with superblend. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Long term period can be divided into two periods, a continued blocking pattern will lead to quiet weather on the front end. The back end of the period the block will break down and lead to chances of rain for the weekend. This discussion will focus more on the chances for rain than the quiet weather. As the previous discussion mentioned, this weekend will not be a washout across the area. There will be periods of dry with mixed with chances for rain. One thing that does look certain though is that the weekend will likely be cloudy with few breaks in the clouds until later in weekend and into Monday. Two main waves are expected this weekend. The first one Friday into Saturday, this looks to be the best chance for precip across the area. The next one will be later Saturday night into Sunday morning. The overall flow looks to be rather active with numerous little waves. This leads to a complex forecast in terms of when to forecast precip. As a result, confidence is low in respect to the actual timing of rain across the area. Another wrench to throw into the forecast is the chance that temperatures could actually be much lower than what is forecast. This could lead to the possibility of winter like precip this weekend. With all of the variables forecast for this weekend, confidence is low in what may or may not happen. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle with light WNW to N winds. KBRL has been reporting 1/4 to 1/2SM visibility from haze since 4 PM CDT. This could be caused by dust kicked up from nearby agricultural fields. However, it is likely not as severe as the sensor is reporting. Uttech && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gibbs SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Uttech
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1029 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a dry cold front moving across north-central WI early this afternoon. Skies are clear across Wisconsin, but a solid area of strato-cu is pushing southeast over far northern Minnesota, where low level temps are colder. Some gusts up to 25 mph are occurring within this colder airmass as well. As this colder airmass slides into the area tonight, light lake effect precip chances and wind gusts are the main forecast concerns. Tonight...The cold front will continue to move southeast and exit northeast WI during the evening. Breezy northwest winds behind the front will usher in a much colder airmass. Delta T`s will drop to about 12-13C over western Lake Superior. Combined with upslope flow, should result in scattered lake effect rain and snow showers in the snow belt of Vilas county. Do not think will see much in the way of accumulations, since the highest mid-level moisture will arrive during the evening when temps will mainly be cooling from the lower 40s to the middle 30s. But perhaps could see a small dusting on grassy surfaces overnight. Clouds will struggle to reach into the Fox Valley due to downsloping, but did show mostly cloudy skies developing over much of north-central WI. Unstable conditions over the Bay and Lake will create some gusts over 25 kts on the Bay and on Lake Michigan north of Sturgeon Bay. A small craft advisory is already in effect. Lows will mainly fall into the low to mid 30s across the region. Tuesday...High pressure will gradually shift toward the region, and move into far western WI in the afternoon. Cold advection will continue through the day, which will reinforce the thermal troughing across the region. Combined with steepening low level lapse rates, should see a scattered cu field develop by late morning at most locations, after being mainly confined to north- central WI early in the day. A few flurries may linger over the Vilas county snow belt through mid-morning. Temps will fall back into the upper 30s to mid 40s range. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 No major weather impacts expected through much of the extended portion of the forecast. The next chance of significant precipitation will be toward the end of the week into next weekend. Tuesday night through Wednesday night: High pressure will move across the area through this time period, both aloft and at the surface. This will allow for dry conditions, partly cloudy skies and relatively calm winds. These conditions will allow for some cold temperatures Tuesday night with ideal radiational cooling. Temperatures will remain well below normal with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 20s northwest to low 30s southeast. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 40s. Thursday into Friday: Return flow/WAA will kick in on the back side of the departing high pressure system. This will lead to increasing moisture and cloud cover across much of the CWA ahead of the next system. Most of the day Thursday will remain dry with increasing clouds; however, a weak shortwave is progged to slide into the area late Thursday afternoon into the day Friday. The combination of upper-level dynamics along with at least a weak Theta-E gradient across central WI will allow for an increasing chance of precipitation through this time period. Thermal profiles would suggest the precip may even hold off into the evening hours as a low to mid-level dry layer remains in place. There is enough moisture and forcing aloft that this layer should saturate by mid evening, giving the chance of a rain/snow mixture across the area into Thursday night. While soundings initially show temps warm enough through the lower levels to support rain, the profile is expected to moisten/cool (due to latent heat release) enough to allow some wet snow to mix in at times. This will especially be true over the north- central portions of WI in the higher terrain. With temperatures expected to hover near or just above freezing and the soil remaining unfrozen, would not expect any major impacts. There could be some light accumulations on grassy/elevated surfaces into early Friday morning. By mid morning Friday and into the afternoon hours, surface temps will warm into the upper 30s to low 40s, which will effectively transition any precipitation over to rain showers. Not expecting much more than a tenth of an inch of QPF. Friday night through Sunday: A surface low progged to be over southern Manitoba, along with an associated shortwave, is expected to slide southeast through the Western Great Lakes Region Saturday into Saturday night. This will then keep a surface trough/stationary boundary across the area into Sunday, leading to an extended period of unsettled weather. As much of the CWA is expected to remain on the warm side of these features, lower level warm air is expected to keep much of the precipitation in liquid form. Western portions of the CWA, over mainly central WI, may see QPF totals around a quarter inch, while the eastern half of the CWA will probably see a tenth of an inch or less for this time period. A blend of the models handled this time period and the model differences well; therefore, have made few changes to the blend. Temperatures will remain below normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Upper flow will continue veering more northerly overnight, in the wake of a shortwave digging through the region. That was allowing a large mass to drop south into the area. But the eventual southward extent of the clouds is still in question. Kept bases across the south VFR while the north will likely fall to MVFR and have some sprinkles and maybe eventually a few flurries. Clouds should become a little more widespread across the entire area tomorrow as surface heating leads to the formation of convective clouds during the morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Cooley AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
915 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 .DISCUSSION...Very light showers developing over the Atlantic waters as breezy onshore flow continues tonight, with some showers pushing onshore along the Volusia County coast. Even as the winds diminish overnight, local WRF and HRRR continue to show isolated showers developing through daybreak. Have expanded the slight chance of light showers for most of the waters from Vero Beach northward. Min temps from the previous forecast are holding up well with new guidance. Temps should fall into the mid/upper 60s in the cities and suburbs, and low/mid 60s in rural areas. Followed the previous forecast`s decision to go 1-3 degrees above GFS MOS guidance at Melbourne, Vero Beach, and Ft. Pierce. 00Z LAMP guidance shows onshore flow through the overnight at these sites, which usually keeps temps above guidance. Only caveat would be if conditions go calm right before sunrise allowing temps to quickly drop several degrees. On Tuesday, cloud cover to increase as a weak coastal trough begins to set up from the Cape northward. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR. A very small rain chance exists along the coast from KTIX-KDAB as isolated showers develop over the Atlantic waters and push onshore. Considerable cloudiness will develop late tonight into Tuesday as a weak coastal trough sets up from around Cape Canaveral to KDAB. High level SCT-BKN deck will also continue across the area from KMLB-KISM northward. && .MARINE...Overnight-Tuesday...High pressure shifts away from the mid Atlantic coast and a weak coastal trough sets up from around Canaveral northward. This will weaken the pressure gradient and onshore winds will diminish to 10 knots or less Tuesday morning. Observations show seas 5 feet or less currently and guidance has 4 feet or less on Tuesday. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rodriguez LONG TERM....Negron/Combs