Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/22/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
630 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018
.UPDATE...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms south of Laguna Pueblo
stretching down to the Plains of San Augustin have become more
organized along a line. This has increased the chance for these
showers and storms reaching the western half of the RGV from ABQ to
Socorro in the next couple of hours. Have increased PoPs to include
chance for storms along the west half of the RGV through 9pm. The
best chances will be from the South Valley down to Socorro as storms
should feed more toward the southerly inflow.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers with embedded tstm activity continues to push NE across
the western highlands and along the divide this hour, with some VCTS
by KGNT. Some vcsh is expected at KGUP with a clap of thunder not out
of the question over the next hour or so before showers move off to
the NE. The HRRR is showing the cluster of tstms S of KGNT making it
all the way to the Rio Puerco before dying out by ~03Z, so included
a TEMPO for a quick light gust of SW outflow at KAEG. Otherwise,
these showers and storms are expected to taper off over the next 2-3
hours not making it much past the divide. Otherwise, the rest of the
night will see some patchy mid-level clouds with high cirrus
streaming over the state. Some patchy fog could develop again across
the SE, favoring KCVN and included mention of non-categorical low sct
at KROW. Shra and tstm activity re-enters portions of western NM
Monday afternoon and evening.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...338 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will change from dry and seasonable tonight and
Monday to wet and cool Tuesday and Wednesday. Subtropical moisture
will move northward across New Mexico Monday night through
Wednesday, as an upper low moves eastward across Arizona and New
Mexico. Significant rainfall will fall Monday night through Wednesday
with the greatest amounts in the northern mountains and areas from
the central mountains eastward. Snowfall levels will generally be
above eleven thousand feet, and the highest peaks in the northern
mountains will receive several inches of snow. A northwest flow aloft
will set up Thursday through Saturday and then become west on
Sunday. It will be dry Thursday through Sunday with temperatures
gradually warming to near normal Saturday and above normal on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Light southerly flow in the low and mid levels today around high
pressure to the east has increased moisture across southern and
western NM, as well as across the Lower and Middle Rio Grande Valley.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across east central AZ this
afternoon are forecast to move into western NM late this afternoon
and evening, as the right entrance region of the H3 jet develops over
western NM. A few showers and thunderstorms will linger in the
northwest and the higher elevations of the southwest after midnight
tonight, as the H3 jet moves well to the east and instability
decreases. As an upper low slowly moves across southern CA tonight,
clouds will spread eastward across central NM. Southwest flow aloft
and south flow in the low levels ahead of an upper level trough
moving across northern AZ will generate light shower and
thunderstorm activity across western and north central NM Monday
afternoon. Increasing cloudiness will keep temperatures slightly
below normal across southern half of NM Monday, but areas to the
north will be slightly warmer than normal.
Another upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will move inland
across southern CA and northern and central Baja CA Monday night, and
this system will draw additional moisture from northern MX across
western and central NM. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop across western NM Monday night,
while scattered showers will develop across central NM. An east to
southeast low level flow will develop across eastern and central NM
Tuesday between moderately strong surface high pressure in the
Southern Plains states and increasing surface low pressure in western
AZ. As the upper level trough moves across AZ and northwest MX
Tuesday, deeper layer subtropical moisture will move northward across
the entire state of NM. Mid level moisture from the remnants of
Hurricane Willa will be entrained into the south southwest flow aloft
ahead of the upper level trough and will contribute to the increase
in moisture across NM. Precipitable water will increase Tuesday to
around 1 inch across far southern portions of central NM to 0.6 of an
inch near the NM/CO border. GFS and NAM are forecasting record
precipitable water at KABQ at around 00Z Wednesday with the NAM
projecting 0.92 of an inch and the GFS 0.89 of an inch. Rain will
spread across eastern NM late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon
and will be widespread across central and western NM the entire day.
A series of jet maxima will round the base of the upper trough and
move over the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The
placement of the jet maxima will bring heavier rain to southeast and
south central NM Tuesday afternoon and to southeast and east central
NM Tuesday night. East to southeast low level upslope flow will also
enhance precipitation amounts east of the central mountains Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Showers will become scattered across western NM
Tuesday night, but will be numerous across central NM. Due to the
mild flow from the southwest ahead of the trough and the lack of a
flow of colder air from the east and northeast, snow levels will be
very high with this fall weather system. GFS, ECMWF and the NAM are
predicting H7 temperatures Monday night through Wednesday to be
greater than positive 2 Celsius and snow levels to be mainly above
11K feet. This forecast is yielding only 2 to 4 inches in the highest
peaks of the Sangre de Cristos and the Tusas mountains. Rain will
end from west to east across central and eastern NM Wednesday, as
the upper level trough accelerates to the east.
Thursday through Sunday appears to be a dry period with northwest
flow aloft Thursday through Saturday, transitioning to west flow
aloft Sunday. Highs Thursday and Friday will remain below normal,
while temperatures will moderate Saturday and Sunday, as warmer air
aloft moves in from the west. Highs Sunday will be above normal
areawide.
28
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...
A weak upper low circulation along the southern and central
California coast this afternoon will draw increasing amounts of
subtropical moisture northward early this week, leading to
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation
chances will be highest and most widespread Monday night through
Tuesday night with locally heavy rainfall possible. The snow level
will be quite high, with only a few inches of snow anticipated over
the highest peaks of the northern mountains. Storm total rainfall
amounts from Monday through Wednesday could range from around one
quarter to one half of an inch along and west of the Continental
Divide. Higher amounts of one half to one inch or more are possible
along the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain over the
eastern plains.
Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as northwest
flow develops over the state. Low temperatures through the end of
this week will be warmer than average but overnight humidity
recoveries generally remain good to excellent. Highs will be near to
below average through Friday, with Tuesday and Wednesday the coolest
days. The central and west could be a few degrees warmer than normal
this weekend.
Ventilation will continue to be a problem for much of northern and
central New Mexico this week. Some areas of good rates forecast for
the west and north Monday but much of the central and east will see
poor rates. Widespread poor ventilation expected Tuesday and
Wednesday with a little improvement in the west Thursday. Widespread
poor rates forecast again Friday and Saturday.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
549 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface
high pressure shifting into the central Great Lakes and a cold
front moving into northern Minnesota early this afternoon. Area of
mid clouds continue move southeast within a warm advection zone
ahead of a shortwave trough north of Minnesota. Farther west,
clear skies are prevailing along the front, as area soundings
show ample dry air below 700mb. Because of this dry air, forecast
concerns mainly revolve around cloud cover and temps in the short
term.
Tonight...Weak shortwave energy will continue to move across Lake
Superior and the Upper Peninsula. Meanwhile, the weak upstream
front will lose definition as it progresses across the state.
Since Gulf moisture is shut off, no sign of any moisture surging
north along the front, and progged soundings remain dry through
the column. As a result, mostly clear skies are anticipated. Winds
are projected to fall off late, so trended toward the colder
statistical guidances for low temps. This lowered temps by a few
degrees, mainly over central WI and the northwoods.
Monday...Stronger shortwave energy will be diving southeast across
northern WI. Moisture will remain extremely limited, but a cold
front will quickly drop into the area in the afternoon. Some low
clouds will likely arrive behind the front over north-central WI,
but mid-levels remain dry. Will keep precip chances out of the
forecast for now. Warmer temps mainly in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
No major weather impacts expected through much of the extended
portion of the forecast. The next chance of significant
precipitation will be toward the end of the week into next weekend.
Monday night into Tuesday: A trough axis will remain nearby allowing
850mb temperatures to cool to around -6C to -7C. This, along with
Lake Superior surface temperatures around 6C to 7C and northwest
flow, will lead to light lake effect rain/snow potential over
north-central WI. This will be especially true over Vilas County.
No major system forcing is expected, so any precipitation should
remain fairly light with inversion heights/moisture remaining at
or below 4 kft. Only a small portion of the convective cloud
layer is expected to reach near the -10C isotherm, so any of the
snowflakes that form should remain small and give low snow to
liquid ratios at best. Outside of some increased cloud cover along
with MI/WI border, the rest of the CWA is expected to remain dry.
Monday night lows will be in the 30s with highs expected to be in
the 40s for Tuesday.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: High pressure will move
across the area through this time period, both aloft and at the
surface. This will allow for dry conditions, partly cloudy skies and
relatively calm winds. This will allow for some cold temperatures
Tuesday night with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lowered
temps a few degrees to trend that way. Temperatures will remain well
below normal with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 20s
northwest to low 30s southeast. Daytime highs will be in the upper
40s to around 50.
Thursday into next weekend: Return flow will kick in on the back
side of the departing high pressure system. This will lead to
increasing moisture and cloud cover across much of the CWA ahead of
the next system. There will also be a steadily increasing chance of
precipitation across the area. An initial upper level wave is
expected to slide through the CWA Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night, which may bring some light rain or rain/snow. (all rain
during the day) The next more organized system will be Friday
night into Saturday as the next area of low pressure slides
through the area. At this point, it looks like temperatures will
be warm enough at the surface and aloft to keep most of the
precipitation in the form of rain. Model consensus was the way to
go with this forecast package, along with mainly chance
precipitation, as significant model differences remain.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 544 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018
A weak surface trough will drop southeast into the area tonight,
but moisture will be limited, so little in the way of cloudiness
will accompany the feature. An upper shortwave digging southeast
toward the region tomorrow will likely lead to some cloudiness
spreading across the north during the afternoon, but bases should
remain VFR through 00Z. Increasing flow across Lake Superior may
result in some MVFR ceilings across the north tomorrow night, but
that will be after the end of the current 00Z TAF period.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Cooley
AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
822 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018
.UPDATE...
All appears quiet tonight across the county warning area as most
of the showers and thunderstorms have been confined to Yavapai and
Coconino Counties in Arizona and further north in Nye County. This
is not likely to last much longer. As previously stated earlier
this afternoon another round of showers and thunderstorms are
likely to generate after 11pm tonight. Most CAM guidance is still
suggesting this development including the HRRR and new run of the
SPC SSEO. Also adding to the confidence in this development is
the latest SPC Mesoanalysis which indicates better mid-level
instability than last night and a similar shear and moisture
profile. Currently IR and Water Vapor satellite is also showing a
digging shortwave moving through southern California with a decent
dry punch behind it. This shortwave is the primary culprit that
will assist in generating the showers and thunderstorms as we
approach midnight.
At the time of this forecast update, the best chances for showers
and thunderstorms are Mohave County, extreme eastern San
Bernardino (mainly along the Colorado River), and eastern Clark
County (mainly east of the Las Vegas Metro, including Mesquite,
Boulder City and Lake Mead). We cannot rule out a few showers
across the Vegas Metro area either. However, chances for
development drop off quickly to the west. Time will tell.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are possible mainly east of the terminal over the
Mormon Mesa and Peach Springs approach corridors after 0600 UTC.
Cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm over the terminal,
however chances of activity drop off quickly as you move east to
west. Activity will last a few hours before progressing eastward
and out of the area.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Early Monday morning, another possibility of showers
and storms will occur affecting mainly KEED/KIFP/KIGM. The best
time frame is after 0600 UTC and lasting a few hours before
progressing eastward and out of the area.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued at 225 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018/
.SYNOPSIS...A circulation will move from southern California
across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona late tonight and early
Monday morning providing a threat for additional showers or
thunderstorms. A more stable air mass begins pushing into the region
Tuesday followed by a strong area of high pressure building through
next weekend with well above normal temperatures.
&&
.Discussion...through next Sunday.
There will likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms
tonight through early Monday morning though coverage probably won`t
be as extensive as last night. The center of the incoming upper low
was near Point Conception this afternoon and a vorticity lobe
rounding the base of the low will eject across southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona between 06Z and 18Z Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both
depict a broad area of fairly extensive precipitation breaking out
across Clark, Mohave and eastern San Bernardino counties after 06Z.
However, the HRRR is more reserved at indicating convection during
the same period and confining it more over Mohave, northeast Clark
and eastern Lincoln counties. Will keep PoPs indicative of isolated
to scattered cells through Monday morning over Clark and eastern San
Bernardino counties. We should see a decrease in activity behind the
vorticity lobe similar to what has been observed today.
There will be a weak southern branch of the trough that will dig
down near northern Baja and move to the east Tuesday, but most of
our area will see benign weather by Tuesday which will lead in to a
tranquil pattern the rest of the week. A zonal flow Wednesday will
precede a strong ridge nosing in from the eastern Pacific which will
hold over the region going through the weekend providing above
average temperatures with dry conditions and generally light winds.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
&&
$$
Update...Lericos
Aviation...Wolf/Lericos
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