Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/22/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
630 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 .UPDATE... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms south of Laguna Pueblo stretching down to the Plains of San Augustin have become more organized along a line. This has increased the chance for these showers and storms reaching the western half of the RGV from ABQ to Socorro in the next couple of hours. Have increased PoPs to include chance for storms along the west half of the RGV through 9pm. The best chances will be from the South Valley down to Socorro as storms should feed more toward the southerly inflow. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...537 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Showers with embedded tstm activity continues to push NE across the western highlands and along the divide this hour, with some VCTS by KGNT. Some vcsh is expected at KGUP with a clap of thunder not out of the question over the next hour or so before showers move off to the NE. The HRRR is showing the cluster of tstms S of KGNT making it all the way to the Rio Puerco before dying out by ~03Z, so included a TEMPO for a quick light gust of SW outflow at KAEG. Otherwise, these showers and storms are expected to taper off over the next 2-3 hours not making it much past the divide. Otherwise, the rest of the night will see some patchy mid-level clouds with high cirrus streaming over the state. Some patchy fog could develop again across the SE, favoring KCVN and included mention of non-categorical low sct at KROW. Shra and tstm activity re-enters portions of western NM Monday afternoon and evening. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...338 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018... .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will change from dry and seasonable tonight and Monday to wet and cool Tuesday and Wednesday. Subtropical moisture will move northward across New Mexico Monday night through Wednesday, as an upper low moves eastward across Arizona and New Mexico. Significant rainfall will fall Monday night through Wednesday with the greatest amounts in the northern mountains and areas from the central mountains eastward. Snowfall levels will generally be above eleven thousand feet, and the highest peaks in the northern mountains will receive several inches of snow. A northwest flow aloft will set up Thursday through Saturday and then become west on Sunday. It will be dry Thursday through Sunday with temperatures gradually warming to near normal Saturday and above normal on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Light southerly flow in the low and mid levels today around high pressure to the east has increased moisture across southern and western NM, as well as across the Lower and Middle Rio Grande Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across east central AZ this afternoon are forecast to move into western NM late this afternoon and evening, as the right entrance region of the H3 jet develops over western NM. A few showers and thunderstorms will linger in the northwest and the higher elevations of the southwest after midnight tonight, as the H3 jet moves well to the east and instability decreases. As an upper low slowly moves across southern CA tonight, clouds will spread eastward across central NM. Southwest flow aloft and south flow in the low levels ahead of an upper level trough moving across northern AZ will generate light shower and thunderstorm activity across western and north central NM Monday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness will keep temperatures slightly below normal across southern half of NM Monday, but areas to the north will be slightly warmer than normal. Another upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will move inland across southern CA and northern and central Baja CA Monday night, and this system will draw additional moisture from northern MX across western and central NM. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across western NM Monday night, while scattered showers will develop across central NM. An east to southeast low level flow will develop across eastern and central NM Tuesday between moderately strong surface high pressure in the Southern Plains states and increasing surface low pressure in western AZ. As the upper level trough moves across AZ and northwest MX Tuesday, deeper layer subtropical moisture will move northward across the entire state of NM. Mid level moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Willa will be entrained into the south southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper level trough and will contribute to the increase in moisture across NM. Precipitable water will increase Tuesday to around 1 inch across far southern portions of central NM to 0.6 of an inch near the NM/CO border. GFS and NAM are forecasting record precipitable water at KABQ at around 00Z Wednesday with the NAM projecting 0.92 of an inch and the GFS 0.89 of an inch. Rain will spread across eastern NM late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon and will be widespread across central and western NM the entire day. A series of jet maxima will round the base of the upper trough and move over the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The placement of the jet maxima will bring heavier rain to southeast and south central NM Tuesday afternoon and to southeast and east central NM Tuesday night. East to southeast low level upslope flow will also enhance precipitation amounts east of the central mountains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Showers will become scattered across western NM Tuesday night, but will be numerous across central NM. Due to the mild flow from the southwest ahead of the trough and the lack of a flow of colder air from the east and northeast, snow levels will be very high with this fall weather system. GFS, ECMWF and the NAM are predicting H7 temperatures Monday night through Wednesday to be greater than positive 2 Celsius and snow levels to be mainly above 11K feet. This forecast is yielding only 2 to 4 inches in the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristos and the Tusas mountains. Rain will end from west to east across central and eastern NM Wednesday, as the upper level trough accelerates to the east. Thursday through Sunday appears to be a dry period with northwest flow aloft Thursday through Saturday, transitioning to west flow aloft Sunday. Highs Thursday and Friday will remain below normal, while temperatures will moderate Saturday and Sunday, as warmer air aloft moves in from the west. Highs Sunday will be above normal areawide. 28 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... A weak upper low circulation along the southern and central California coast this afternoon will draw increasing amounts of subtropical moisture northward early this week, leading to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will be highest and most widespread Monday night through Tuesday night with locally heavy rainfall possible. The snow level will be quite high, with only a few inches of snow anticipated over the highest peaks of the northern mountains. Storm total rainfall amounts from Monday through Wednesday could range from around one quarter to one half of an inch along and west of the Continental Divide. Higher amounts of one half to one inch or more are possible along the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain over the eastern plains. Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as northwest flow develops over the state. Low temperatures through the end of this week will be warmer than average but overnight humidity recoveries generally remain good to excellent. Highs will be near to below average through Friday, with Tuesday and Wednesday the coolest days. The central and west could be a few degrees warmer than normal this weekend. Ventilation will continue to be a problem for much of northern and central New Mexico this week. Some areas of good rates forecast for the west and north Monday but much of the central and east will see poor rates. Widespread poor ventilation expected Tuesday and Wednesday with a little improvement in the west Thursday. Widespread poor rates forecast again Friday and Saturday. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
549 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show surface high pressure shifting into the central Great Lakes and a cold front moving into northern Minnesota early this afternoon. Area of mid clouds continue move southeast within a warm advection zone ahead of a shortwave trough north of Minnesota. Farther west, clear skies are prevailing along the front, as area soundings show ample dry air below 700mb. Because of this dry air, forecast concerns mainly revolve around cloud cover and temps in the short term. Tonight...Weak shortwave energy will continue to move across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula. Meanwhile, the weak upstream front will lose definition as it progresses across the state. Since Gulf moisture is shut off, no sign of any moisture surging north along the front, and progged soundings remain dry through the column. As a result, mostly clear skies are anticipated. Winds are projected to fall off late, so trended toward the colder statistical guidances for low temps. This lowered temps by a few degrees, mainly over central WI and the northwoods. Monday...Stronger shortwave energy will be diving southeast across northern WI. Moisture will remain extremely limited, but a cold front will quickly drop into the area in the afternoon. Some low clouds will likely arrive behind the front over north-central WI, but mid-levels remain dry. Will keep precip chances out of the forecast for now. Warmer temps mainly in the 50s. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 No major weather impacts expected through much of the extended portion of the forecast. The next chance of significant precipitation will be toward the end of the week into next weekend. Monday night into Tuesday: A trough axis will remain nearby allowing 850mb temperatures to cool to around -6C to -7C. This, along with Lake Superior surface temperatures around 6C to 7C and northwest flow, will lead to light lake effect rain/snow potential over north-central WI. This will be especially true over Vilas County. No major system forcing is expected, so any precipitation should remain fairly light with inversion heights/moisture remaining at or below 4 kft. Only a small portion of the convective cloud layer is expected to reach near the -10C isotherm, so any of the snowflakes that form should remain small and give low snow to liquid ratios at best. Outside of some increased cloud cover along with MI/WI border, the rest of the CWA is expected to remain dry. Monday night lows will be in the 30s with highs expected to be in the 40s for Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday night: High pressure will move across the area through this time period, both aloft and at the surface. This will allow for dry conditions, partly cloudy skies and relatively calm winds. This will allow for some cold temperatures Tuesday night with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lowered temps a few degrees to trend that way. Temperatures will remain well below normal with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 20s northwest to low 30s southeast. Daytime highs will be in the upper 40s to around 50. Thursday into next weekend: Return flow will kick in on the back side of the departing high pressure system. This will lead to increasing moisture and cloud cover across much of the CWA ahead of the next system. There will also be a steadily increasing chance of precipitation across the area. An initial upper level wave is expected to slide through the CWA Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which may bring some light rain or rain/snow. (all rain during the day) The next more organized system will be Friday night into Saturday as the next area of low pressure slides through the area. At this point, it looks like temperatures will be warm enough at the surface and aloft to keep most of the precipitation in the form of rain. Model consensus was the way to go with this forecast package, along with mainly chance precipitation, as significant model differences remain. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 544 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 A weak surface trough will drop southeast into the area tonight, but moisture will be limited, so little in the way of cloudiness will accompany the feature. An upper shortwave digging southeast toward the region tomorrow will likely lead to some cloudiness spreading across the north during the afternoon, but bases should remain VFR through 00Z. Increasing flow across Lake Superior may result in some MVFR ceilings across the north tomorrow night, but that will be after the end of the current 00Z TAF period. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Cooley AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
822 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018 .UPDATE... All appears quiet tonight across the county warning area as most of the showers and thunderstorms have been confined to Yavapai and Coconino Counties in Arizona and further north in Nye County. This is not likely to last much longer. As previously stated earlier this afternoon another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely to generate after 11pm tonight. Most CAM guidance is still suggesting this development including the HRRR and new run of the SPC SSEO. Also adding to the confidence in this development is the latest SPC Mesoanalysis which indicates better mid-level instability than last night and a similar shear and moisture profile. Currently IR and Water Vapor satellite is also showing a digging shortwave moving through southern California with a decent dry punch behind it. This shortwave is the primary culprit that will assist in generating the showers and thunderstorms as we approach midnight. At the time of this forecast update, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms are Mohave County, extreme eastern San Bernardino (mainly along the Colorado River), and eastern Clark County (mainly east of the Las Vegas Metro, including Mesquite, Boulder City and Lake Mead). We cannot rule out a few showers across the Vegas Metro area either. However, chances for development drop off quickly to the west. Time will tell. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly east of the terminal over the Mormon Mesa and Peach Springs approach corridors after 0600 UTC. Cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm over the terminal, however chances of activity drop off quickly as you move east to west. Activity will last a few hours before progressing eastward and out of the area. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Early Monday morning, another possibility of showers and storms will occur affecting mainly KEED/KIFP/KIGM. The best time frame is after 0600 UTC and lasting a few hours before progressing eastward and out of the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued at 225 PM PDT Sun Oct 21 2018/ .SYNOPSIS...A circulation will move from southern California across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona late tonight and early Monday morning providing a threat for additional showers or thunderstorms. A more stable air mass begins pushing into the region Tuesday followed by a strong area of high pressure building through next weekend with well above normal temperatures. && .Discussion...through next Sunday. There will likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms tonight through early Monday morning though coverage probably won`t be as extensive as last night. The center of the incoming upper low was near Point Conception this afternoon and a vorticity lobe rounding the base of the low will eject across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona between 06Z and 18Z Monday. The GFS and ECMWF both depict a broad area of fairly extensive precipitation breaking out across Clark, Mohave and eastern San Bernardino counties after 06Z. However, the HRRR is more reserved at indicating convection during the same period and confining it more over Mohave, northeast Clark and eastern Lincoln counties. Will keep PoPs indicative of isolated to scattered cells through Monday morning over Clark and eastern San Bernardino counties. We should see a decrease in activity behind the vorticity lobe similar to what has been observed today. There will be a weak southern branch of the trough that will dig down near northern Baja and move to the east Tuesday, but most of our area will see benign weather by Tuesday which will lead in to a tranquil pattern the rest of the week. A zonal flow Wednesday will precede a strong ridge nosing in from the eastern Pacific which will hold over the region going through the weekend providing above average temperatures with dry conditions and generally light winds. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ && $$ Update...Lericos Aviation...Wolf/Lericos For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: or follow us on Facebook and Twitter