Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/19/18


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
851 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018 No major adjustments to the grids at this time. Snow showers moving through Summit County. Roads wet with icy spots near the Eisenhower Tunnel this evening. Current forecast of 2-5" looks reasonable, higher end of that range will be more localized. Some rain showers may spill out of the foothills and into the I25 corridor. Most of the showers should stay west of the interstate and dissipate altogether after midnight. Stratus deck advancing north and west into Lincoln and southern Washington early this evening, so will increase the cloud cover there. Most of this will shift eastward after midnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 109 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018 Water vapor imagery shows a trough that is currently rotating over Utah with a southwest to northeast oriented jet streak extending from eastern Arizona to Nebraska. This trough will slowly move eastward through the night and will be picked up within the northwesterly flow tomorrow. As this system moves through Colorado tonight, it will create convective showers mainly over the central mountains south of Grand Lake through northern Park County. There is growing confidence in this outcome because there are convective showers already present over western Colorado and eastern Utah on visible satellite and radar. Model lapse rates further support this outcome with values forecast to be between 8 to 9 degrees C per kilometer late this afternoon and into the early evening. Model trends have continued to increase total QPF values throughout the day with the HRRR now showing maximum QPF values in Clear Creak and Summit Counties of around an inch. I continue to believe these max values are overdone but there is good reason to think QPF values will be higher than originally expected. Therefore, I have increased POPs, QPF, and snowfall amounts such that areas above 10,000 feet can expect 2-5 inches of snow south of Grand Lake through north Park County. With these convective showers it is of note that the snowfall rates will be higher than normal and may be between 1 to 2 inches per hour under the heavier showers. Travel in this area above 10,000 may become briefly hazardous from 6pm to midnight. Flow turns northerly on Friday as the trough departs with gusts up to 25 mph across the eastern plains tomorrow. Despite the northerly flow, temperatures will only be a couple degrees cooler. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 109 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018 Friday night upper level high pressure centered over the Pacific Northwest will begin to move southwest toward Colorado. Flow will initially be from the north-northwest on Saturday transitioning to southwesterly flow as the ridge flattens Sunday afternoon. This flow pattern will lead to warm, dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be well above seasonal normals by Sunday. Monday mid level moisture is expected to increase as a trough advances to the east. This will allow for the advection of tropical moisture into the region in southeast flow. Late Monday into Tuesday ascent will increase slightly allowing for a slight chance of showers over the high country and northern border. The moisture is forecast to spread onto the plains Tuesday afternoon. This would give most of north central and northeast Colorado a slight chance of showers with the best chance remaining over the high country. Warm temperatures will keep rain over the plains with snow levels above 9,000 feet. Wednesday the trough is anticipated to progress east as subsidence forms across the forecast area. Thursday a front will move into northeast Colorado with the ECMWF showing a secondary trough while the GFS brings in only a weak trough at the end of the period. There will be a potential for light orographic snow showers over the mountains with dry conditions across the plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 831 PM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018 VFR conditions will continue through Friday evening. Southerly to southeasterly winds at KDEN and KAPA should persist through the evening, strongest at KDEN. High res models continue to show weak showers pushing off the mountains through 06z and weakening further as they move eastward. These could survive enough to briefly drop ceilings at BJC and APA but no major impacts are expected. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Cooper SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will crest over the North Country tonight, before sliding to the south and east of the region on Friday. Developing moderate south winds will bring milder and more seasonable conditions on Friday, with high temperatures generally reaching the 50s. However, this will be short-lived as another cold front brings a chance of rain showers Saturday morning followed by brisk conditions Saturday night into Sunday. High on Sunday will only reach the upper 30s to lower 40s across the North Country. Temperatures gradually moderate back closer to seasonable levels toward the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 957 PM EDT Thursday...Latest RAP analysis shows warm air advection taking place now. It also seems upper level ridging did not build in fast enough for a stream of mid to high level associated with some shortwave energy to be shunted east before moving south into the US. So now they are moving across Northern New York and Northern Vermont with temperatures being slow to fall. With warm air advecting and clouds combating radiational cooling, have nudged overnight lows up a few degrees and adjusted hourly temperature trends accordingly. However, no adjustments have been made to the freeze warning at this time. The rest of the forecast remains in great shape. Have a good night. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... As narrow ridge of high pressure shifts ewd and crests over the North Country this evening, anticipate 2-m temperatures falling rapidly given very low dewpoints and dissipating stratocu. Should see temperatures down into the 28-32F range in the Champlain Valley before midnight, and thus have reissued the Freeze Warning from 10PM-8AM for the Champlain Valley where frost/freeze program remains active. That said, winds will shift into the S-SW overnight, and temperatures should gradually level out and even slowly rise toward daybreak from the Champlain Valley west, as low-level WAA regime develops. We are also monitoring lake induced clouds across wrn NY. It appears we`ll see stratus move back into the nrn Adirondacks and across portions of VT after 03Z with onset of low-level WAA. Not anticipating any precipitation, but have indicated skies becoming cloudy especially across the nrn Adirondacks with orographic ascent aiding in the increase in clouds as moisture from the ern Great Lakes arrives. Lows outside the Champlain Valley will generally be in the mid-upr 20s. South winds continue on Friday with temperatures moderating back into the mid-upr 50s with partly to mostly sunny conditions developing. The south winds will be moderately strong in the Champlain Valley, generally south 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. A Lake Wind Advisory may be required for Lake Champlain. Continued S-SW low-level flow for Friday night. Appears next shortwave trough and associated sfc cold front approach the St. Lawrence Valley by 12z Saturday. As this system approaches, will see a gradual increase in mid-level cloud cover from W-E, with 30-60% PoPs for light rain showers mainly across nrn NY after midnight. May see light rainfall amts across St. Lawrence, generally <0.10". Lows Friday Night mainly in the low-mid 40s, though a few deeper valleys may see a decoupled PBL with lows into the upper 30s in spots. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...A cold front approaching from the northwest will move through the region Saturday, resulting in another rather dreary day to start the weekend. The frontal passage will be accompanied by some scattered rain showers through the day along with some gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the front, transitioning to gusty northwesterly winds after the fropa. Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast through the day, and high temperatures will be near seasonable values - upper 40s to upper 50s. The Saint Lawrence Valley and the northern Adirondacks will be cooler than areas further east due to the earlier timing of the frontal passage in the western portions of the forecast area. By Saturday night, the front will have cleared the entire forecast area, allowing for the establishment of brisk northwesterly flow throughout the North Country. A highly amplified trough digging over the northeastern US will supply another shot of unseasonably cold air to the area. Low- and mid- level temperatures within the base of the trough will be 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal. Temperatures will drop sharply overnight, bottoming out in the 20s to 30s before dawn. While the bulk of the rain showers will end after the frontal passage Saturday, some lingering upslope showers can be expected overnight. Freezing levels will lower through the night, so a transition from rain to light snow showers through the night can be expected at all but valley locations. Accumulating snow overnight will be confined to the higher elevations of the northern Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and the Northeast Kingdom, and should generally stay under an inch in all but the highest summits. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...The long-term forecast will continue to feature very changeable but chilly weather as a series of deep upper-level troughs with associated surface fronts transport unseasonably cold Canadian-sourced air towards New England. Sunday will be the coldest day with gusty northwesterly winds and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal norms. Highs will generally be in the 30s to near 40, but wind chills will be colder. Temperatures will moderate slightly as the workweek begins, but forecast highs mainly in the 40s will still be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through Tuesday as the trailing edges of some Lake Effect snow bands off Lake Ontario are directed towards our forecast area. Precipitation type would likely vary diurnally at this point, with some light snow expected in the overnight/morning hours, transitioning to rain showers during the daytime hours. It`s too early at this point to hone in closely on snow accumulations and axis of heaviest precipitation, but significant accumulations are not expected. By Wednesday, high pressure will build in and we should be dry once again. At this point, the end of the week looks to remain dry as high pressure continues to build, but given the progressive nature of the upper-flow, confidence that far out is fairly low. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...Conditions currently VFR at all sites with mid-level clouds streaming southward from Canada and Lake Ontario stratus beginning to intrude along the Adirondacks. MVFR ceilings of 2000 to 2500ft agl are expected at KSLK with mountain peaks occasionally obscured between 05Z and 12Z. Additionally, some LLWS may be possible at KSLK between 05Z and 12Z, but it appears it should remain above 2000ft and is not mentioned in their TAF at this time. Otherwise, visibilities will remain unrestricted. Winds are currently in the process of transitioning from west to southwest and will generally be 5 to 10 knots. Winds will slowly increase after 12Z to 10 to 15 knots with isolated gusts to 25kts, mainly at KBTV and KMSS, around peak daylight. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for VTZ002-005-009-011. NY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Haynes SHORT TERM...RSD LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Haynes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1053 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide by to the south of Pennsylvania tonight and Friday. A slight warm up will occur before a couple of cold fronts move through over the weekend. Colder than normal temperatures but mainly dry weather are expected for the at least the first part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Temperatures near fcst lows now across the north, but still some wind in spots like AOO and JHW. Also the gradient should tighten up overnight, especially across the northwest. These factors should slow down the temperature drop. Earlier discussion below. The last vestiges of narrow bands of shallow lake effect strato cu will drift north and/or diminish across the NW Mtns of PA through early this evening with clear skies and cold, frosty conditions to follow for tonight. As the center of high pressure over the Middle Ohio River Valley builds east and slides just south of the state late today and tonight, northwest winds will lighten up a bit across the southwest half of the state, but still gust into the teens across the Susq Valley and North-Central Mtns early this evening. Nearly ideal radiational cooling will occur tonight. Since the SE half of the forecast area is still considered to be in the growing season, Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings were issued for late tonight through the morning commute hours Friday for this part of the state. Low temps at daybreak Friday (employing a blend of LAMP, HRRR and NBM data) will vary from the upper 20s in the rural mountain valleys of central and northern PA, to the mid 30s in the larger metro areas in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Friday looks be be an overall nice, mid-autumn day with plenty of sunshine to start, then a gradually increase in cirrus and altocu clouds from west to east during the afternoon/evening hours. Southwest winds will freshen to 10-15 kts in the afternoon with gusts into the upper teen to low 20s during the afternoon, with the highest gusts over the Western Mtns. Temps in the 50s...to near 60F in the SE will be near to slightly below normal. Any light rain will hold off until close to midnight west of the I-99/Route 220 corridor. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... *A taste of winter Saturday Night-Sunday. Blustery winds, snow showers, reduced visibility with some accumulation in the higher elevations. Light rain showers are fcst spread into central PA Friday night into Saturday. QPF is less than 0.25 inch through 00Z Sunday. A more potent shot of cold air will be accompanied by gusty winds and snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Light snow accumulation (<1 inch) is expected in the NW snowbelt and higher elevations of the Allegheny Plateau into the Laurel Highlands (along/west of US-219). Wind chills in the low 30s NW to low 40s SE on Sunday will make it feel more like early December than late October. Conditions will improve Sunday night into Monday. A system passing to the north of the area may bring a few light rain/snow showers to the northern tier on Tuesday; otherwise anticipate dry wx to last through midweek. More detail below. 850 mb temps Sunday down around minus 8, thus plenty cold for snow. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Generally clear skies expected tonight as the wind has decoupled in most places and will continue to do except perhaps at JST. On Friday, cirrus will slide in from the Ohio Valley during the late morning and afternoon, followed by lowering ceilings Fri night into generally the MVFR range with a chance for light rain developing mainly after midnight. .Outlook... Fri...No sig wx expected. Sat...AM low cigs/LLWS likely W Mtns. Scattered showers and areas of mainly MVFR cigs as a cold front pushes SE across the PA airfields. Sun...SHSNRA/cig reductions likely NW Mtns before dawn through the day. Breezy NW wind. Mon-Tue...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ045-046-049>053- 058-059. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-056-057-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert/Martin SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Martin/Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
719 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018 .AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/ Intermittent rain showers continue to push inland from the Western Gulf and will impact all TAF sites through the period as a shallow frontal inversion remains. Most of the periods will be marked by ifr cigs with DRT and AUS to have better chances to improve to mvfr in the afternoon. A few heavy showers will be possible after midnight and may have to consider periods of tempo 1SM vsbys as convective trends become more apparent. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/ UPDATE... Ran a quick update to bump up PoPs a bit in the Hill Country where light rain continues. So far, rain rates have been around a tenth of an inch per hour or less with some isolated spots around a quarter of an inch earlier. This activity will continue to slowly push north through the evening hours. Latest runs of the HRRR keeps scattered showers around overnight and will make no further changes at the present time. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... Light to moderate showers will continue to affect portions of south central Texas through Friday night. There is the potential for moderate to heavy rain overnight with a second and better signal for heavy shower activity late Friday morning into the afternoon period. The Flash Flood Watch has been extended in time through Friday Evening as one to two inches are expected with isolated 5 inches possible, mainly across the northern Hill Country including Burnet and Llano Counties within the next 24 hours. The reasoning of the rainfall totals through Friday night are as follow: 1) maximum precipitable daily values of 1.9 to 2.4 inches, 2) coastal low level pressure over Brownsville, increased low level jet tonight into Friday, upper level short-wave pulses moving across the region and 5) convergence zone setting up along the I-35 corridor on Friday. All these features are anticipated to interact with each other in one way or another, which will result in moderate to localized heavy showers within the next 24 hours, especially late Friday morning into the afternoon period. The majority of HiRes and medium models are in good agreement with this solution. Therefore, confidence is high with the new rainfall amounts and possibility of flash flooding. Once again, with saturated soils in place and expected rainfall amounts, new flash flooding are likely to occur and affect areas where ponding of water remains. If you live near the Colorado, Llano and Nueces basins, we highly recommend to closely monitor the weather conditions for the next few days as most of rainfall amounts will become runoff. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... A weak frontal boundary will move into the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau areas on Saturday with plenty moisture and instability in place for the generation of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over those areas. As the boundary moves and dissipates across the northern part of the area, drier airmass should move across the eastern part of south central Texas for a break of the rain. The focus for rain remains over the Rio Grande on Sunday with rain chances returning to most areas from early to middle of next week. There is a potential for moderate to heavy showers for this period as an upper level disturbance moves from the four corners region into the Southern Plains in addition of increased moisture arriving from the eastern Pacific and a shallow frontal boundary that manages to push across the Hill Country. Temperatures are expected to stay below climate normals through the entire period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 57 63 59 67 55 / 60 80 50 50 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 57 64 59 66 57 / 60 70 50 50 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 58 66 60 68 57 / 60 70 50 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 54 61 56 65 53 / 90 80 60 50 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 68 61 67 59 / 70 40 40 60 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 55 61 56 65 54 / 70 80 60 50 - Hondo Muni Airport 58 67 62 69 58 / 90 60 40 50 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 57 66 60 67 57 / 60 70 50 50 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 70 60 68 57 / 50 60 50 40 - San Antonio Intl Airport 59 67 61 68 58 / 70 70 50 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 60 68 63 69 59 / 70 70 40 50 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco- Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano- Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala. && $$ Aviation...Oaks Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
737 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018 Main short term concerns remain light rain threat tonight and temperature trends. Nice warm push of air across the western CWA this afternoon with readings topping out 70-75. The southwest flow will continue into tonight and may increase as pressure falls/gradient increases ahead of incoming northern Minnesota front. The upper trough associated with the front is moving through the Dakotas/Utah region and is forecast to lift northeast and spread some mid level moisture across about the southeast half of the CWA overnight. 300K Isentropic forecast shows lift in a southwest/northeast band developing over the eastern CWA through about 06z and exiting to the far east through 15z Fri. Will mention some likely PoPs with this feature as it moves east. Any QPF amounts should remain light or generally one tenth of in inch or less. Temperatures should remain nearly steady later tonight with upper 40s/lower 50s expected as a southwest breeze continues. The light rain should exit rapidly to the east after 12z Fri with clouds clearing from west to east. The initial cold front is forecast to move to near a KMSP-KRWF line by 18z. Gusty northwest winds are expected in the wake of the front, 25-30kts possible. Temperatures will steady or slowly fall over the northwest CWA into the afternoon, although cloud cover will be sparse. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018 The upper air pattern will remain consistent through early next week with a ridge across the western CONUS, and a broad trough over the northeast. This will lead to an up and down temperature pattern for this weekend, and into early next week. This pattern will slowly change next week as a powerful jet stream begins to flatten out the west coast ridge. This ridge will not be as amplified as it moves eastward, but the milder Pacific air will eventually take over late next week, along with a more unsettled period. Friday night, and into Saturday morning will have the strongest cold front move through our region in the next 7 days. This front will cause strong gusty winds to develop late Friday night, and into Saturday morning. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the morning with temperatures falling in the afternoon. Although models have downplayed the strong short wave moving southeast along this front, there is still enough energy to generate light rain, changing to light snow Saturday morning. The main area again will be concentrated in west central Wisconsin, with the chances tapering off to nothing west of the Twin Cities. A light dusting is likely around Ladysmith and Eau Claire by Saturday morning as this system rotates out of the area. Another front will arrive Sunday night. However, this front is moisture starved and not as cool as Saturday`s. Therefore, winds will shift back to the northwest on Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures. As mentioned before, the pattern will slowly change late next week as a powerful jet stream flattens out the west coast ridge. Slowly our weather will become more unsettled, but at the same time, milder Pacific air will infiltrate the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 737 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018 Clouds are beginning to increase in response to a wave coming up out of Kansas. This will spread light rain into south central MN shortly after 6z, with it departing the MPX area shortly after 14z. MKT and EAU look to receive light rain from this wave, with MSP and RNH being on the edge, with all other terminals remaining dry. Only expect cigs to drop as low as 5k feet with the rain, with vis remaining VFR as well. For winds Friday, did boost them several kts, with GFS/NAM soundings both showing gust potential between 30 and 40 kts at all terminals. Did remove WS mention from TAFs as it looks very marginal with little in the way of directional shear. KMSP...Rain late tonight may stay just southeast of MSP, but left the mention in for now, but if current HRRR trends continue, will have to pull that back to a VCSH mention. Confidence is high that MSP will remain VFR. GFS bufkit soundings show wind gust potential up near 40 kts by the afternoon, with those sorts of winds continuing through Friday night. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR. Wind NW 25G35kt early, diminishing to 15G25kt in aftn. Sun...VFR. Wind SW 15G25kt. Mon...VFR. Wind SW becoming NW 10G20kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
847 PM MST Thu Oct 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry conditions with a warming trend through Friday. A chance of showers returns this weekend and into early next week as a trough of low pressure moves across the area. Expect gusty east winds at times, especially on Saturday. By the middle of the new week we should return to dry conditions across much of the area with less wind. && .DISCUSSION...Weak troughiness from the northern plains back through northern Arizona continues a dry southwesterly flow at most levels across SE AZ. Precipitable water still measured below 1/2 inch on the 00Z KTWC sounding. However, with the lower level easterly/southeasterly flow we`ve seen boundary layer moisture increase just enough to keep a cu field around. Surface dewpoints are up 5 to 8 degrees over the past 24 hours, back into the upper 40s to lower 50s. With the easterly flow the HRRR spreads this across our entire area by mid morning. We`re still on track for several degrees of warming over the next 48 hours along with increasing moisture bringing showers and thunderstorms back over the weekend. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. && .AVIATION...Valid through 20/06Z. Isolated -SHRA/-SHSN mainly across the White Mountains northeast of KSAD into Friday morning. Otherwise, clear skies KTUS vicinity westward. From KSAD-KDUG line eastward expect SCT-BKN at 3k-7k ft AGL through Friday morning. Surface wind diminishing overnight, generally easterly 5-12 kts with occasional gusts mainly at KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Friday except for a slight chance of showers mainly across the White Mountains. There is a slight chance of showers across much of southeast Arizona this weekend. A few thunderstorms may also occur Sunday afternoon. A slight chance of showers continues Monday into Tuesday mainly east of Tucson, then dry conditions for much of the area next Wednesday. Expect gusty east to southeast winds at times into this weekend, with the strongest winds occurring Saturday. Thereafter, 20-foot winds generally terrain driven under 15 mph Monday into Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Low clouds in the Upper Gila River Valley south into portions of northeast Cochise county have not lifted or dissipated much today. Safford has been reporting cloud ceilings as low as 3 thousand feet AGL all day. Latest models suggested that this cloudiness will remain in place again tonight and early tomorrow. Otherwise, the area will be in between systems again Friday. Both the ECMWF and GFS models develop a weak upper low off the southern California coast by Friday night. Models track this upper low north along the coast and then inland through northern/central California on Sunday. Precipitation, mainly rain, was progged to develop across parts of Arizona Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Thereafter, the system tracks through the Great Basin region on Monday and through the Rockies by early Wednesday. Expect some lingering showers Monday into Tuesday as the system passes north of the area. Overall, a warming trend will continue through Saturday. High temperatures will peak Saturday a few degrees above normal, followed by some cooling on Sunday into Tuesday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson