Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
646 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Latest water vapor and RAP 500MB analysis show a long wave trough carved out from the Northern Plains through the Desert Southwest. Embedded shortwave trough currently ejecting out of the Central Plains toward the Upper Mississippi and Great lakes regions. Radar currently showing a band of frontogenetical induced mixed rain/snow extending from central Upper MI through eastern NE. 3 inches of snowfall was reported at Oak Center as of noon but was melting now. Some other areas across southeast MN picked up just shy of an inch of snowfall. Look for this precipitation is to push southeast of the area this evening as high pressure builds in from the Plains. Then, plan on slow clearing of clouds from northwest to southeast overnight with temperatures falling into the middle 20s to near 30. High pressure will be over the area Monday for partly to mostly sunny skies. A cold day otherwise with temperatures only toping off in the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Breezy west winds will add to the chill. Low pressure moving through southern Canada will push some mid-level clouds into areas mainly north of I-94 Monday night. Otherwise, look for lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 A weak cold front drops through the area Tuesday as that low over Canada pulls to the east. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. Main impact will be a few mid-clouds and breezy west winds in the 10 to 20 mph range. Look for highs in the middle 40s to the lower 50s. After a dry/colder Wednesday, a milder/dry Thursday is expected as warm air advection kicks in ahead of another low pushing through Canada. Expect highs in the 50s. A chance of rain enters the picture Friday into Saturday morning as a cold front extending from that Canadian low drops through the region. A return to dry conditions for Sunday with highs in the middle 40s to the lower 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Snow band with IFR to LIFR ceilings continues to move east and will clear LSE by 15/02z. Behind the snow band, VFR conditions prevail with surface winds from the northwest. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Some river flooding continues into Monday and Tuesday for portions of the Kickapoo and Yellow Rivers in Wisconsin. See the latest river flood statements or visit our website at for details. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...DD HYDROLOGY...DAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
949 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast from the Ohio valley into the lower Great Lakes tonight, ahead of a cold front quickly moving east through the area. High pressure will build east across the region Monday night through Tuesday. Another cold front will move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with high pressure returning to the area Wednesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Latest radar data in line with short term model guidance. Weakly defined shower development is taking place over southern Ohio and expecting activity to gradually expand later tonight into the eastern portions of the forecast area. However, only a limited chance for showers expected rather than likely POPs. So, decreased to at least 50 percent over the east. Area of rain moving west to east out of Illinois will split with bulk of precipitation going north and south as it approaches the local forecast area. This is in response to upper level positive vorticity maxima splitting off with one going to the north of the local area and the other diving east but remaining south of the area. This is in perfect agreement with the HRRR radar model data at this time. Likely POPs may be premature for late tonight in the east and may hold off til frontal passage tomorrow. Secondary round of positive vorticity maxima will slide east during the day tomorrow supporting likely POPs in the eastern half of the area. Otherwise, no other major changes with this update. Original Discussion... Forecast remains fairly similar to previous iteration, as rain showers are still expected to develop and lift northeast through the area late tonight as weak low pressure moves towards the area. Highest pops are along/east of I-71, where best moisture return/isentropic ascent is expected as a quasi warm front lifts through this area. Have generally kept pops here in the likely range, with chance elsewhere through the overnight. There may be a lull in precip activity across the western/central part of the area late tonight, however pops increase again towards morning as a cold front quickly moves east across the area. Likely pops will persist east through the morning hours, with pops quickly diminishing from west to east after 18Z, aside from lake effect rain showers across the primary snow belt where likely/chance pops linger into the the evening. High pressure will work east into the area Monday night, with clearing skies outside of some lingering lake clouds across the snow belt. It looks like a fairly decent chance of widespread frost and potential freeze conditions, especially along/south of a Toledo to Canton line. Right now, forecast lows are currently around 33 for these areas, and will hold off on any freeze/frost headlines to let the next shift take a look at the latest temperature/cloud cover data. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Lots going on in the short term period beginning Tuesday. Tuesday morning models point to leftover moisture across the lake effect region with flow off the lake and 850mb temps -5 to -6c. Held off on any precip given the building high but did put morning clouds in the region. Elsewhere expecting mostly clear skies and a frosty start to the day. Tuesday evening a cold front will approach the area from the nnw. Brought in chance pops overnight most places although the best chance will be the northeast lakeshore and snow belt locations again, mainly after midnight as instability to the lake grows to moderate. Temps at 850mb continue to drop to around -5c by Wednesday afternoon. Expect lake effect showers to continue into afternoon. Wednesday evening building high pressure and decreasing moisture levels suggest precip should be decreasing. Will have chance pops in the evening dropping to slight chance after midnight as the rest of the area clears and turns frosty again. Thursday expect a sunny day will at least some leftover clouds far northeast off the lake. Highs Tuesday mostly lower 50s. Highs wednesday and Thursday mid 40s northeast to lower 50s southwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Little change in the long term forecast. Below normal temperatures will prevail through the period as a large upper level trough lingers over the Great Lakes. At the surface, the large surface high over the Lower Great Lakes, will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Friday, allowing next system to move through this weekend. Model timing in a little better agreement. Both models now move the cold front through Friday night into Saturday morning. lake effect likely to kick in Saturday night across snowbelt as 850mb temps plunge to -7c. Could see a rain snow mix overnight. Sunday still in doubt. The ECMWF has high pressure building in on Sunday while the GFS has another short wave swinging across the Lake. For now will go with continuity and continue with the ECMWF solution. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Lower clouds beginning to push north with the moisture expected to move into the local area. This will bring increasing chances for rain and then drizzle overnight with low ceilings down to IFR and MVFR visibilities. A cold front is expected to sweep through late in the afternoon tomorrow and this will bring drier air back to the region. Ceilings, visibilities, and rain threat will improve with time in the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR into Monday night and again early Tuesday night and possibly Friday. && .MARINE... Will issue a small craft advisory for Monday and run it through the remainder of the period. It will need to be extended through mid week. Weak low pressure moves north of the region overnight dragging a cold front west to east across the lake. Winds will increase rapidly Monday morning behind the front as the low deepens and building high pressure through the Central Plains and lower Ohio Valley increase the pressure gradient. Wind speeds should get to 20 to 25 knots or so from the wnw with higher gusts. Another low moves east across Ontario Tuesday reinforcing the pressure gradient keeping winds and waves elevated through Wednesday. Initially winds will be from the southwest Tuesday and then turn northwest Wednesday behind a cold front. Thursday the high will be centered across the Ohio Valley. Friday the pressure gradient increases again as the high moves to our southeast and another low tracks east across Ontario. Expect winds to be primarily from the southwest in the mid 20 knot range. No gales expected but small craft advisory conditions will dominate. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for LEZ142- 143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...TK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
740 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018 The Winter Weather Advisory has been canceled everywhere except Sheridan, Graham, Logan, Gove, Greeley and Wichita counties in northwest Kansas. Precipitation will end from northwest to southeast this evening. If current trends continue, the remaining counties are likely to be canceled prior to 06Z. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Bands of light to occasional moderate snow has been falling across the area through the day. Snow is being caused by a right rear quadrant of a jet along strong mid level frontogenesis. The best theta-e lapse rates, as shown yesterday as well, are over/near the southeast portion of the area. The radar is showing the banded structure nicely, especially in/near the southeast portion of the area. All model output is in general agreement in continuing to sag the area of snow south and east before ending by mid evening. The Nam and Rap are showing the best detail on this. So have trended the grids in that direction. Reports we have received so far have remained below an inch. Considering the banded structure along with the strong forcing and lapse rates, am hesitant to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory early. Will let the evening look at this, and make the final call. Temperatures have moved little today due to strong cold air advection, cloudy skies, and ongoing precipitation. High resolution guidance indicates these temperatures will begin to slowly fall well before sunset. Cloud cover will rapidly decrease and by late evening expect mostly clear skies. Winds will drop off to less than 10 mph from a west to northwest direction. Expect temperatures to become the coldest of the fall season so far. Since a lot of places were already at or near 28 degrees, we started the Hard Freeze Warning already and have it going until tomorrow morning. The remaining two counties should have no problem verifying the hard freeze so will continue the warning. These temperatures should break most if not all of the record low temperatures tonight and tomorrow morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018 By Monday night, a cutoff low breaks off the main flow as the main trough moves off to the northeast. This cutoff low sits over the southwestern U.S. Another trough follows but stays over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a ridge over the Pacific Northwest begins moving southeast Tuesday. As this occurs, the cutoff low rejoins the main flow weakening the ridge and building a trough by Wednesday night. The Tri-State region stays mostly under low pressure on the leading edge of the on-again, off-again trough until Friday. From Friday to Sunday, a cutoff low forms once again from the main flow and a ridge pushes eastward into the region. Southwest flow aloft dominates over the Tri-State region until Friday night as the trough pushes through the region shifting winds to northwesterly. Due to the location of the Tri-State region this week in regards to the upper level flow, temperatures will remain fairly consistent with little variance. Highs in the 50s and 60s are expected with lows in the 30s and 40s. Dry, mostly sunny conditions are anticipated. Slight chances of light rain exist in the southern part of our CWA Thursday morning but confidence is low at the moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 715 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018 VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with lingering 3500-6000 ft ceilings clearing out from northwest to southeast tonight. NNW winds at 10-15 knots will back to the NW and decrease to 5-10 knots overnight. Clear skies and NW or WNW winds at 10-15 knots will prevail on Monday. && .CLIMATE... RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT Issued at 737 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Monday morning could bring record cold to the Central High Plains. To put Monday`s potentially record-breaking cold temperatures into perspective, below is a comparison of some weather stations in the region, their lowest recorded temperature for any October 15th, and their forecasted low temperatures at this time for tomorrow. The year of the record set is in the parentheses next to the current record value. The beginning of the period of record for each station is listed in parentheses next to the station name, with each period of record lasting through the present. Some stations may even break their all-time record low temperatures for today, October 14th as temperatures drop quickly this evening. N.B.: These low temperatures are bumped down a little bit from what they were yesterday. This increases confidence that there will be widespread record-breaking cold across the Tri-State area tonight. With this extreme cold for this time of year, even light winds will result in dangerous wind chill temperatures. Apparent temperatures will approach zero degrees Fahrenheit or below early Monday. Station..........Minimum Recorded Temp 10/15...Forecast Low 10/15/18 McCook, NE (1896)...............25 (1943).................18* McCook, NE Airport (1967).......26 (1974).................18* Colby, KS 1SW (1957)............20 (1966).................19* Goodland, KS (1895).............16 (1966).................16* Hill City, KS (1907)............23 (1943).................20* Oakley, KS 4W (1920)............23 (1943).................19* Oberlin, KS (1913)..............20 (1943).................19* Sharon Springs, KS (1893).......22 (1952).................17* Burlington, CO (1903)...........20 (1905).................14* Burlington, CO Airport (1997)...24 (2002).................14* Cheyenne Wells, CO (1897).......21 (1943).................14* Flagler, CO 1S (1919)...........13 (1966).................12* Kit Carson, CO (1939)...........17 (1943).................13* Wray, CO (1893).................19 (1976).................17* Yuma, CO (1939).................14 (1966).................17 *These values would set or tie records if they verify Monday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Monday for KSZ016- 027>029-041-042. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for KSZ015-016-028-029-041-042. CO...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Monday for COZ092. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VINCENT SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...NEWMAN AVIATION...VINCENT CLIMATE...PATTON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
146 PM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Area wide hard freezes are likely tonight into Monday morning. Cool conditions will continue Monday with temperatures warming to near normal this week. The forecast remains dry with no signals for significant storms through at least next week. && .DISCUSSION... A dry cold front will continue to move south through our region today. Strong northeasterly winds 25-35 mph will mainly affect areas prone to north winds such as Lake Tahoe, Walker Lake, and the Chalfant Valley. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Tahoe. Areas of blowing dust are also possible downwind of dry lake beds and desert sinks. Peak valley winds will occur this afternoon with strong easterly winds developing tonight through Monday morning along the Sierra crest. Critical fire weather conditions are possible in a few areas with stronger winds. For more information, please refer to the Fire Weather section. Strong radiational cooling will occur tonight within the dry air mass that is in place. Most areas will see the coldest temperatures since mid-April Monday morning with widespread hard freezes likely even in urban areas. Take necessary precautions such as covering sensitive plants and exposed water pipes, disconnect garden hoses, turn off sprinklers, and bring in sensitive livestock and pets. Tuesday onward the weather looks to remain quiet as a ridge builds into the western United States. Daytime temperatures will warm to near normal values with winds remaining light. No simulations indicate the potential for storms in the near future. -CJ/Chris && .AVIATION... Winds will be gusty today, due to a dry cold front that moved through the area this morning. Winds will be northeast to east, except for areas south of Highway 50, which will have north to northwest winds before they shift Sunday night. Gusts will be 15- 25 kts at area terminals, with sustained winds 25-40 kts along the Sierra. Because of this, turbulence and wind shear are possible through Monday evening from the Sierra crest westward, particularly at KTVL and KTRK. Winds will decrease in the valleys on Monday, but will remain elevated through Tuesday across the Sierra. Because of the very dry airmass that has moved in, VFR conditions are expected. However, areas downwind of dry lake beds and desert sinks may see periods of blowing dust today. CL && .FIRE WEATHER... * Localized areas of lower-elevation critical conditions remain possible through early evening in the wake of cold frontal passage. Chalfant, Owens Valleys have the highest risk as north winds channel through. Bishop has had a 39 mph peak gust so far with a chance for even higher winds in the region through about 8 PM. * Strong northeast ridge winds are projected through pre-dawn Monday. Sierra crest sites already gusting over 60 mph now and should increase more this evening, peaking between 8 PM and 2 AM per recent HRRR simulations. Many mid-slope sites from Tahoe to Mammoth will remain gusty through the overnight hours. All of this with sketchy humidity recoveries as low as 15-20% could yield spots of critical fire weather for mid-slopes and ridges in the Sierra tonight. More widespread strong downslope/drying winds are expected west of the Sierra crest which is a classic setup with northeast flow scenarios. * High pressure quickly moves in Monday bringing in lighter winds and stronger morning inversions. Ventilation will be limited Monday and Tuesday, with lighter east/northeast transport winds and so-so afternoon mixing. This may impact prescribed burn plans. This scene has a chance of continuing through much of the coming week, though as daytime temperatures warm mixing should improve some each day while transport winds remain light northeast all week. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday NVZ001-003>005. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday NVZ002. CA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday CAZ070-071-073. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
644 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 A strong cold front was currently located from Kansas City, MO to Ponca City, OK. Temps ahead of the front were in the 50s with temps quickly dropping into the 40s and 30s behind the front. Areas of drizzle with occasional showers were occuring from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Snow was occuring further northwest into northern Kansas where the colder temps existed. Expectations for this evening are for the cold front to move into the area by early evening. Plenty of lift exists with an incoming shortwave and upper level jet, however the lack of cloud ice forecasted outside of showers indicates that we will likely see scattered showers with patchy drizzle outside of that. RAP MU capes of around 250j/kg will move in from the southwest this evening and might be just enough to produce some lightning strikes. This did occur with strong frontogenesis over the Wichita area therefore will mention some isolated thunder tonight generally along and south of I-44. Winds will become gusty with some gusts up to 35mph possible tonight as the cold air rushes in. The timeframe with most of the showers will be from about 02z- 08Z, this is largely based on the RAP and HRRR as strong lift occurs on the backside of the front. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.10-0.70in with the highest amounts across south central missouri. The 850mb 0C temp lags the precip for our area therefore no winter precip is expected. Patchy drizzle will be possible Monday morning as residual lift occurs within an area of virtually no cloud ice. Light showers will continue to be possible across far south central missouri, closer to the front. It will not be a pleasant day with cloud cover and northerly winds. Model guidance suggests high temps in the middle to upper 40s. Brrrr. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 High pressure axis will move in Monday night with clearing skies from the north and light winds. This will allow for strong radiational cooling and therefore widespread frost is expected by Tuesday morning. Only areas that are questionable are along the Missouri/Arkansas border where some cloud cover may remain. Model consensus is for lows to drop to around 32 however MET mos guidance has consistently come in cooler therefore its possible a hard freeze may occur. Frost/Freeze headlines look likely during this timeframe. Patchy frost will again be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings as a dry/cool high pressure airmass remains across the area. Shortwave energy approaches from the southwest late thursday night into Friday which will bring our next chance of rain. This rain may last into Saturday before exiting as what looks like another strong blast of cool air comes down from the north. A near 1040mb surface high comes into the area Sunday, continuing the cool air filtration. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will be dealing with IFR and MVFR flight conditions through tonight and into Monday. A cold front was approaching from the northwest, which will force rain and drizzle across much of southern Missouri. Fog was also being observed in some areas, all creating reduced visibilities. Ceiling levels were generally IFR, and expected to continue to trend within the IFR category for several hours this evening and tonight. North winds will increase later tonight after the front passes through the region. Some gusts up to 25 mph can not be ruled out. One final thought, we think there is sufficient instability for a few lightning strikes this evening. We may need to amend some of the TAFs to include lightning. Safe Travels. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Cramer
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 A mixture of rain and snow comes to an end tonight, with below freezing temps to start the work week. Water vapor satellite imagery early this afternoon featured a sharp, positively-tilted upper tropospheric trough digging southeastward over the Dakotas and northern Rockies. A polar airmass was plunging southward with this trough, with the leading edge of this airmass having cleared the I-35 corridor by early afternoon. Temperatures behind this boundary were in the lower 30s with upper 20s not far behind in northwest Nebraska. A tight 30-50 ubar/km pressure gradient and differential CAA-induced mixing were leading to gusty winds immediately behind the front, with gusts over 30 kts observed near the Nebraska border. A coupled polar and sub-tropical jet, together with H700-600 frontogenetical lift associated with the cold front, fueled a band of moderate/heavy snow over south central Nebraska. Total snowfall amounts of 3-5+ inches were common under this narrow band, with 1-2 inches to the south in north central Kansas. Frontogenetical forcing rooted closer to H850 lead to bands of showers and even a few thunderstorms in east central Kansas this afternoon where surface temperatures were still in the mid to upper 30s. This mesoscale forcing was broadening and shifting southeast, but there remains enough ambient lift to support light to locally moderate snowfall and rain through the rest of the afternoon. The NAM/HRRR/RAP/HREF all develop a second, transient region of frontogenetical forcing towards the Kansas Turnpike this evening, though there are minor placement differences in this band. RAP soundings around 01Z for Topeka would support a brief period of moderate snow with a well-saturated DGZ/lower troposphere--if the forcing band can tap into this profile. Other hours/models hint at issues with a lack of ice in the DGZ, which would inhibit snowfall rates. While surface wet bulb values in the Topeka area are in the 32 to 34 degree range this evening, any snowfall in this band should be able to penetrate the shallow near-surface above freezing layer, but the best chances for accumulating snow will be towards the Flint Hills on west. There is certainly a good chance that Topeka will also see its first measurable snowfall of the season tonight, but amounts should be light. This complex rapidly decays after 05Z and all but departs prior to 09Z. Attention then turns to the freeze potential tonight. Continued CAA, coupled with clearing skies, should allow temperatures to fall below freezing over much of the area by sunrise. However, there remains plenty of ambiguity in how impactful this freeze will be. High clouds may linger in the south, snow in the north may actually insulate any ground-level vegetation, wet vegetation throughout the area may release enough latent heat to keep themselves above freezing, and a steady 5-10 kt wind will limit deposition. The winds may cancel out the latent heat release by venting this heat away from the surface of the vegetation. Overall, this is not a "classic" freeze, but there is a high enough risk of vegetation damage to warrant the continuation of the warning with a slight expansion into Douglas and Osage counties. CAA continues throughout the day on Monday with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s under clear skies. Surface ridging builds in during the day, setting the stage for another widespread killing freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Seasonable and dry conditions settle in for the middle to latter part of this work week. A cutoff low develops across the Southwest U.S. Monday night as the current H300 shortwave trough shears apart. This will keep broad southwest upper tropospheric flow in place for the balance of the week. Lows Monday night and Tuesday morning should fall into the 20s, killing any sensitive vegetation left that survives tonight`s freeze. Downslope H850 air then filters southeastward, helping to boost temperatures back into the low 60s for highs, but still 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Surface ridging exerts an influence over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday, shifting east on Thursday--resulting in an increase in southerly boundary-layer winds. The upper level pattern breaks down by the end of the week with a small window of rain late Thursday into Friday, but next weekend at this point looks to be dry and pleasant. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 For the 00Z TAFs, the snow bands should continue to advance through the area. This should impact all terminal sites to a degree as cold air continues to work into the area. Right now, MVFR CIGS are common to the northwest, where moderate, to at times heavy snow, is falling. VIS restrictions seem to be the biggest temporary IFR/LIFR limiting factor. Confidence in how intense the temporary band of snow that moves over the terminals remains low at this time. Therefore, have only gone to 4SM for VIS restrictions at KTOP/KFOE. Expectation is that any snow band would be more intense around the KMHK terminal, so have gone with 2SM VIS restriction over that area. All snow should end by 05-06Z time frame. Dry air will work into the region and allow CIGS to lift quickly into the overnight period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Record Low Temperatures (year set): --------------------------------- October 15 October 16 Topeka 27 (1891) 24 (1966) Concordia 28 (1943) 24 (1966) && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>010-020-021-034. Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008>010-020-034. Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ026-037>040- 054-055. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ011-012-021>024-035-036. && $$ SHORT TERM...Skow LONG TERM...Skow AVIATION...Drake CLIMATE...65