Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
646 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
Latest water vapor and RAP 500MB analysis show a long wave trough
carved out from the Northern Plains through the Desert Southwest.
Embedded shortwave trough currently ejecting out of the Central
Plains toward the Upper Mississippi and Great lakes regions. Radar
currently showing a band of frontogenetical induced mixed
rain/snow extending from central Upper MI through eastern NE. 3
inches of snowfall was reported at Oak Center as of noon but was
melting now. Some other areas across southeast MN picked up just shy
of an inch of snowfall. Look for this precipitation is to push
southeast of the area this evening as high pressure builds in from
the Plains. Then, plan on slow clearing of clouds from northwest to
southeast overnight with temperatures falling into the middle 20s to
near 30.
High pressure will be over the area Monday for partly to mostly
sunny skies. A cold day otherwise with temperatures only toping off
in the upper 30s to the middle 40s. Breezy west winds will add to
the chill.
Low pressure moving through southern Canada will push some mid-level
clouds into areas mainly north of I-94 Monday night. Otherwise, look
for lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
A weak cold front drops through the area Tuesday as that low over
Canada pulls to the east. No precipitation is expected with this
frontal passage. Main impact will be a few mid-clouds and breezy
west winds in the 10 to 20 mph range. Look for highs in the middle
40s to the lower 50s.
After a dry/colder Wednesday, a milder/dry Thursday is expected as
warm air advection kicks in ahead of another low pushing through
Canada. Expect highs in the 50s.
A chance of rain enters the picture Friday into Saturday morning as
a cold front extending from that Canadian low drops through the
region.
A return to dry conditions for Sunday with highs in the middle 40s
to the lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
Snow band with IFR to LIFR ceilings continues to move east and
will clear LSE by 15/02z. Behind the snow band, VFR conditions
prevail with surface winds from the northwest.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
Some river flooding continues into Monday and Tuesday for portions
of the Kickapoo and Yellow Rivers in Wisconsin. See the latest river
flood statements or visit our website at weather.gov/lacrosse for
details.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...DD
HYDROLOGY...DAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
949 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast from the Ohio valley into the
lower Great Lakes tonight, ahead of a cold front quickly moving
east through the area. High pressure will build east across the
region Monday night through Tuesday. Another cold front will
move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with high
pressure returning to the area Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Latest radar data in line with short term model guidance. Weakly
defined shower development is taking place over southern Ohio
and expecting activity to gradually expand later tonight into
the eastern portions of the forecast area. However, only a
limited chance for showers expected rather than likely POPs. So,
decreased to at least 50 percent over the east. Area of rain
moving west to east out of Illinois will split with bulk of
precipitation going north and south as it approaches the local
forecast area. This is in response to upper level positive
vorticity maxima splitting off with one going to the north of
the local area and the other diving east but remaining south of
the area. This is in perfect agreement with the HRRR radar model
data at this time. Likely POPs may be premature for late tonight
in the east and may hold off til frontal passage tomorrow. Secondary
round of positive vorticity maxima will slide east during the
day tomorrow supporting likely POPs in the eastern half of the
area.
Otherwise, no other major changes with this update.
Original Discussion...
Forecast remains fairly similar to previous iteration, as rain
showers are still expected to develop and lift northeast
through the area late tonight as weak low pressure moves towards
the area. Highest pops are along/east of I-71, where best
moisture return/isentropic ascent is expected as a quasi warm
front lifts through this area. Have generally kept pops here in
the likely range, with chance elsewhere through the overnight.
There may be a lull in precip activity across the
western/central part of the area late tonight, however pops
increase again towards morning as a cold front quickly moves
east across the area. Likely pops will persist east through the
morning hours, with pops quickly diminishing from west to east
after 18Z, aside from lake effect rain showers across the
primary snow belt where likely/chance pops linger into the the
evening. High pressure will work east into the area Monday
night, with clearing skies outside of some lingering lake clouds
across the snow belt. It looks like a fairly decent chance of
widespread frost and potential freeze conditions, especially
along/south of a Toledo to Canton line. Right now, forecast lows
are currently around 33 for these areas, and will hold off on
any freeze/frost headlines to let the next shift take a look at
the latest temperature/cloud cover data.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Lots going on in the short term period beginning Tuesday.
Tuesday morning models point to leftover moisture across the
lake effect region with flow off the lake and 850mb temps -5 to
-6c. Held off on any precip given the building high but did put
morning clouds in the region. Elsewhere expecting mostly clear
skies and a frosty start to the day. Tuesday evening a cold
front will approach the area from the nnw. Brought in chance
pops overnight most places although the best chance will be the
northeast lakeshore and snow belt locations again, mainly after
midnight as instability to the lake grows to moderate. Temps at
850mb continue to drop to around -5c by Wednesday afternoon.
Expect lake effect showers to continue into afternoon. Wednesday
evening building high pressure and decreasing moisture levels
suggest precip should be decreasing. Will have chance pops in
the evening dropping to slight chance after midnight as the rest
of the area clears and turns frosty again. Thursday expect a
sunny day will at least some leftover clouds far northeast off
the lake. Highs Tuesday mostly lower 50s. Highs wednesday and
Thursday mid 40s northeast to lower 50s southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. Below normal temperatures
will prevail through the period as a large upper level trough
lingers over the Great Lakes. At the surface, the large surface
high over the Lower Great Lakes, will move off the Mid Atlantic
Coast Friday, allowing next system to move through this weekend.
Model timing in a little better agreement. Both models now move the
cold front through Friday night into Saturday morning. lake effect
likely to kick in Saturday night across snowbelt as 850mb temps
plunge to -7c. Could see a rain snow mix overnight. Sunday still in
doubt. The ECMWF has high pressure building in on Sunday while the
GFS has another short wave swinging across the Lake. For now will
go with continuity and continue with the ECMWF solution.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Lower clouds beginning to push north with the moisture expected
to move into the local area. This will bring increasing chances
for rain and then drizzle overnight with low ceilings down to
IFR and MVFR visibilities. A cold front is expected to sweep
through late in the afternoon tomorrow and this will bring drier
air back to the region. Ceilings, visibilities, and rain threat
will improve with time in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR into Monday night and again early Tuesday
night and possibly Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Will issue a small craft advisory for Monday and run it through the
remainder of the period. It will need to be extended through mid
week. Weak low pressure moves north of the region overnight dragging
a cold front west to east across the lake. Winds will increase
rapidly Monday morning behind the front as the low deepens and
building high pressure through the Central Plains and lower Ohio
Valley increase the pressure gradient. Wind speeds should get to 20
to 25 knots or so from the wnw with higher gusts. Another low moves
east across Ontario Tuesday reinforcing the pressure gradient
keeping winds and waves elevated through Wednesday. Initially winds
will be from the southwest Tuesday and then turn northwest Wednesday
behind a cold front. Thursday the high will be centered across the
Ohio Valley. Friday the pressure gradient increases again as the
high moves to our southeast and another low tracks east across
Ontario. Expect winds to be primarily from the southwest in the mid
20 knot range. No gales expected but small craft advisory conditions
will dominate.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
LEZ144>149.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM EDT Monday for LEZ142-
143.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...TK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
740 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018
The Winter Weather Advisory has been canceled everywhere except
Sheridan, Graham, Logan, Gove, Greeley and Wichita counties in
northwest Kansas. Precipitation will end from northwest to
southeast this evening. If current trends continue, the remaining
counties are likely to be canceled prior to 06Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018
Bands of light to occasional moderate snow has been falling across
the area through the day. Snow is being caused by a right rear
quadrant of a jet along strong mid level frontogenesis. The best
theta-e lapse rates, as shown yesterday as well, are over/near the
southeast portion of the area. The radar is showing the banded
structure nicely, especially in/near the southeast portion of the
area.
All model output is in general agreement in continuing to sag the
area of snow south and east before ending by mid evening. The Nam
and Rap are showing the best detail on this. So have trended the
grids in that direction. Reports we have received so far have
remained below an inch. Considering the banded structure along with
the strong forcing and lapse rates, am hesitant to cancel the Winter
Weather Advisory early. Will let the evening look at this, and make
the final call.
Temperatures have moved little today due to strong cold air
advection, cloudy skies, and ongoing precipitation. High resolution
guidance indicates these temperatures will begin to slowly fall well
before sunset. Cloud cover will rapidly decrease and by late evening
expect mostly clear skies. Winds will drop off to less than 10 mph
from a west to northwest direction. Expect temperatures to become
the coldest of the fall season so far.
Since a lot of places were already at or near 28 degrees, we started
the Hard Freeze Warning already and have it going until tomorrow
morning. The remaining two counties should have no problem verifying
the hard freeze so will continue the warning. These temperatures
should break most if not all of the record low temperatures tonight
and tomorrow morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018
By Monday night, a cutoff low breaks off the main flow as the main
trough moves off to the northeast. This cutoff low sits over the
southwestern U.S. Another trough follows but stays over the Midwest.
Meanwhile, a ridge over the Pacific Northwest begins moving
southeast Tuesday. As this occurs, the cutoff low rejoins the main
flow weakening the ridge and building a trough by Wednesday night.
The Tri-State region stays mostly under low pressure on the leading
edge of the on-again, off-again trough until Friday. From Friday to
Sunday, a cutoff low forms once again from the main flow and a ridge
pushes eastward into the region. Southwest flow aloft dominates over
the Tri-State region until Friday night as the trough pushes
through the region shifting winds to northwesterly.
Due to the location of the Tri-State region this week in regards to
the upper level flow, temperatures will remain fairly consistent
with little variance. Highs in the 50s and 60s are expected with
lows in the 30s and 40s. Dry, mostly sunny conditions are
anticipated. Slight chances of light rain exist in the southern part
of our CWA Thursday morning but confidence is low at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 715 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018
VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with lingering
3500-6000 ft ceilings clearing out from northwest to southeast
tonight. NNW winds at 10-15 knots will back to the NW and decrease
to 5-10 knots overnight. Clear skies and NW or WNW winds at 10-15
knots will prevail on Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE... RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT
Issued at 737 PM MDT Sun Oct 14 2018
Monday morning could bring record cold to the Central High Plains.
To put Monday`s potentially record-breaking cold temperatures into
perspective, below is a comparison of some weather stations in the
region, their lowest recorded temperature for any October 15th, and
their forecasted low temperatures at this time for tomorrow. The
year of the record set is in the parentheses next to the current
record value. The beginning of the period of record for each
station is listed in parentheses next to the station name, with
each period of record lasting through the present. Some stations
may even break their all-time record low temperatures for today,
October 14th as temperatures drop quickly this evening.
N.B.: These low temperatures are bumped down a little bit from what
they were yesterday. This increases confidence that there will be
widespread record-breaking cold across the Tri-State area tonight.
With this extreme cold for this time of year, even light winds
will result in dangerous wind chill temperatures. Apparent
temperatures will approach zero degrees Fahrenheit or below early
Monday.
Station..........Minimum Recorded Temp 10/15...Forecast Low 10/15/18
McCook, NE (1896)...............25 (1943).................18*
McCook, NE Airport (1967).......26 (1974).................18*
Colby, KS 1SW (1957)............20 (1966).................19*
Goodland, KS (1895).............16 (1966).................16*
Hill City, KS (1907)............23 (1943).................20*
Oakley, KS 4W (1920)............23 (1943).................19*
Oberlin, KS (1913)..............20 (1943).................19*
Sharon Springs, KS (1893).......22 (1952).................17*
Burlington, CO (1903)...........20 (1905).................14*
Burlington, CO Airport (1997)...24 (2002).................14*
Cheyenne Wells, CO (1897).......21 (1943).................14*
Flagler, CO 1S (1919)...........13 (1966).................12*
Kit Carson, CO (1939)...........17 (1943).................13*
Wray, CO (1893).................19 (1976).................17*
Yuma, CO (1939).................14 (1966).................17
*These values would set or tie records if they verify Monday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Monday for KSZ016-
027>029-041-042.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight
for KSZ015-016-028-029-041-042.
CO...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Monday for COZ092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...PATTON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
146 PM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Area wide hard freezes are likely tonight into Monday morning.
Cool conditions will continue Monday with temperatures warming to
near normal this week. The forecast remains dry with no signals
for significant storms through at least next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A dry cold front will continue to move south through our region
today. Strong northeasterly winds 25-35 mph will mainly affect
areas prone to north winds such as Lake Tahoe, Walker Lake, and
the Chalfant Valley. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory is in
effect for Lake Tahoe. Areas of blowing dust are also possible
downwind of dry lake beds and desert sinks. Peak valley winds will
occur this afternoon with strong easterly winds developing
tonight through Monday morning along the Sierra crest. Critical
fire weather conditions are possible in a few areas with stronger
winds. For more information, please refer to the Fire Weather
section.
Strong radiational cooling will occur tonight within the dry air
mass that is in place. Most areas will see the coldest
temperatures since mid-April Monday morning with widespread hard
freezes likely even in urban areas. Take necessary precautions
such as covering sensitive plants and exposed water pipes,
disconnect garden hoses, turn off sprinklers, and bring in
sensitive livestock and pets.
Tuesday onward the weather looks to remain quiet as a ridge builds
into the western United States. Daytime temperatures will warm to
near normal values with winds remaining light. No simulations
indicate the potential for storms in the near future.
-CJ/Chris
&&
.AVIATION...
Winds will be gusty today, due to a dry cold front that moved
through the area this morning. Winds will be northeast to east,
except for areas south of Highway 50, which will have north to
northwest winds before they shift Sunday night. Gusts will be 15-
25 kts at area terminals, with sustained winds 25-40 kts along
the Sierra. Because of this, turbulence and wind shear are
possible through Monday evening from the Sierra crest westward,
particularly at KTVL and KTRK. Winds will decrease in the valleys
on Monday, but will remain elevated through Tuesday across the
Sierra.
Because of the very dry airmass that has moved in, VFR conditions
are expected. However, areas downwind of dry lake beds and desert
sinks may see periods of blowing dust today. CL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
* Localized areas of lower-elevation critical conditions remain
possible through early evening in the wake of cold frontal
passage. Chalfant, Owens Valleys have the highest risk as north
winds channel through. Bishop has had a 39 mph peak gust so far
with a chance for even higher winds in the region through about 8
PM.
* Strong northeast ridge winds are projected through pre-dawn
Monday. Sierra crest sites already gusting over 60 mph now and
should increase more this evening, peaking between 8 PM and 2 AM
per recent HRRR simulations. Many mid-slope sites from Tahoe to
Mammoth will remain gusty through the overnight hours. All of
this with sketchy humidity recoveries as low as 15-20% could
yield spots of critical fire weather for mid-slopes and ridges
in the Sierra tonight. More widespread strong downslope/drying
winds are expected west of the Sierra crest which is a classic
setup with northeast flow scenarios.
* High pressure quickly moves in Monday bringing in lighter winds
and stronger morning inversions. Ventilation will be limited
Monday and Tuesday, with lighter east/northeast transport winds
and so-so afternoon mixing. This may impact prescribed burn plans.
This scene has a chance of continuing through much of the coming
week, though as daytime temperatures warm mixing should improve
some each day while transport winds remain light northeast all
week.
-Chris
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday
NVZ001-003>005.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday NVZ002.
CA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday
CAZ070-071-073.
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
644 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
A strong cold front was currently located from Kansas City, MO to
Ponca City, OK. Temps ahead of the front were in the 50s with
temps quickly dropping into the 40s and 30s behind the front.
Areas of drizzle with occasional showers were occuring from
central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
Snow was occuring further northwest into northern Kansas where the
colder temps existed.
Expectations for this evening are for the cold front to move into
the area by early evening. Plenty of lift exists with an incoming
shortwave and upper level jet, however the lack of cloud ice
forecasted outside of showers indicates that we will likely see
scattered showers with patchy drizzle outside of that. RAP MU
capes of around 250j/kg will move in from the southwest this
evening and might be just enough to produce some lightning
strikes. This did occur with strong frontogenesis over the
Wichita area therefore will mention some isolated thunder tonight
generally along and south of I-44. Winds will become gusty with
some gusts up to 35mph possible tonight as the cold air rushes in.
The timeframe with most of the showers will be from about 02z-
08Z, this is largely based on the RAP and HRRR as strong lift
occurs on the backside of the front. Rainfall amounts will range
from 0.10-0.70in with the highest amounts across south central
missouri. The 850mb 0C temp lags the precip for our area therefore
no winter precip is expected.
Patchy drizzle will be possible Monday morning as residual lift
occurs within an area of virtually no cloud ice. Light showers
will continue to be possible across far south central missouri,
closer to the front. It will not be a pleasant day with cloud
cover and northerly winds. Model guidance suggests high temps in
the middle to upper 40s. Brrrr.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
High pressure axis will move in Monday night with clearing skies
from the north and light winds. This will allow for strong
radiational cooling and therefore widespread frost is expected by
Tuesday morning. Only areas that are questionable are along the
Missouri/Arkansas border where some cloud cover may remain. Model
consensus is for lows to drop to around 32 however MET mos
guidance has consistently come in cooler therefore its possible a
hard freeze may occur. Frost/Freeze headlines look likely during
this timeframe.
Patchy frost will again be possible Wednesday and Thursday
mornings as a dry/cool high pressure airmass remains across the
area. Shortwave energy approaches from the southwest late thursday
night into Friday which will bring our next chance of rain. This
rain may last into Saturday before exiting as what looks like
another strong blast of cool air comes down from the north. A near
1040mb surface high comes into the area Sunday, continuing the
cool air filtration.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with IFR and MVFR flight conditions through tonight and
into Monday.
A cold front was approaching from the northwest, which will force
rain and drizzle across much of southern Missouri. Fog was also
being observed in some areas, all creating reduced visibilities.
Ceiling levels were generally IFR, and expected to continue to
trend within the IFR category for several hours this evening and
tonight.
North winds will increase later tonight after the front passes
through the region. Some gusts up to 25 mph can not be ruled out.
One final thought, we think there is sufficient instability for a
few lightning strikes this evening. We may need to amend some of
the TAFs to include lightning.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Cramer
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
A mixture of rain and snow comes to an end tonight, with below
freezing temps to start the work week.
Water vapor satellite imagery early this afternoon featured a
sharp, positively-tilted upper tropospheric trough digging
southeastward over the Dakotas and northern Rockies. A polar
airmass was plunging southward with this trough, with the leading
edge of this airmass having cleared the I-35 corridor by early
afternoon. Temperatures behind this boundary were in the lower 30s
with upper 20s not far behind in northwest Nebraska. A tight
30-50 ubar/km pressure gradient and differential CAA-induced
mixing were leading to gusty winds immediately behind the front,
with gusts over 30 kts observed near the Nebraska border. A
coupled polar and sub-tropical jet, together with H700-600
frontogenetical lift associated with the cold front, fueled a band
of moderate/heavy snow over south central Nebraska. Total
snowfall amounts of 3-5+ inches were common under this narrow
band, with 1-2 inches to the south in north central Kansas.
Frontogenetical forcing rooted closer to H850 lead to bands of
showers and even a few thunderstorms in east central Kansas this
afternoon where surface temperatures were still in the mid to
upper 30s.
This mesoscale forcing was broadening and shifting southeast, but
there remains enough ambient lift to support light to locally
moderate snowfall and rain through the rest of the afternoon. The
NAM/HRRR/RAP/HREF all develop a second, transient region of
frontogenetical forcing towards the Kansas Turnpike this evening,
though there are minor placement differences in this band. RAP
soundings around 01Z for Topeka would support a brief period of
moderate snow with a well-saturated DGZ/lower troposphere--if the
forcing band can tap into this profile. Other hours/models hint at
issues with a lack of ice in the DGZ, which would inhibit
snowfall rates. While surface wet bulb values in the Topeka area
are in the 32 to 34 degree range this evening, any snowfall in
this band should be able to penetrate the shallow near-surface
above freezing layer, but the best chances for accumulating snow
will be towards the Flint Hills on west. There is certainly a good
chance that Topeka will also see its first measurable snowfall of
the season tonight, but amounts should be light. This complex
rapidly decays after 05Z and all but departs prior to 09Z.
Attention then turns to the freeze potential tonight. Continued
CAA, coupled with clearing skies, should allow temperatures to
fall below freezing over much of the area by sunrise. However,
there remains plenty of ambiguity in how impactful this freeze
will be. High clouds may linger in the south, snow in the north
may actually insulate any ground-level vegetation, wet vegetation
throughout the area may release enough latent heat to keep
themselves above freezing, and a steady 5-10 kt wind will limit
deposition. The winds may cancel out the latent heat release by
venting this heat away from the surface of the vegetation.
Overall, this is not a "classic" freeze, but there is a high
enough risk of vegetation damage to warrant the continuation of
the warning with a slight expansion into Douglas and Osage
counties.
CAA continues throughout the day on Monday with highs only
reaching the mid to upper 40s under clear skies. Surface ridging
builds in during the day, setting the stage for another widespread
killing freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
Seasonable and dry conditions settle in for the middle to latter
part of this work week.
A cutoff low develops across the Southwest U.S. Monday night as
the current H300 shortwave trough shears apart. This will keep
broad southwest upper tropospheric flow in place for the balance
of the week. Lows Monday night and Tuesday morning should fall
into the 20s, killing any sensitive vegetation left that survives
tonight`s freeze. Downslope H850 air then filters southeastward,
helping to boost temperatures back into the low 60s for highs, but
still 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Surface
ridging exerts an influence over the area on Tuesday and
Wednesday, shifting east on Thursday--resulting in an increase in
southerly boundary-layer winds. The upper level pattern breaks
down by the end of the week with a small window of rain late
Thursday into Friday, but next weekend at this point looks to be
dry and pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
For the 00Z TAFs, the snow bands should continue to advance
through the area. This should impact all terminal sites to a
degree as cold air continues to work into the area. Right now,
MVFR CIGS are common to the northwest, where moderate, to at
times heavy snow, is falling. VIS restrictions seem to be the
biggest temporary IFR/LIFR limiting factor. Confidence in how
intense the temporary band of snow that moves over the terminals
remains low at this time. Therefore, have only gone to 4SM for VIS
restrictions at KTOP/KFOE. Expectation is that any snow band
would be more intense around the KMHK terminal, so have gone with
2SM VIS restriction over that area. All snow should end by 05-06Z
time frame. Dry air will work into the region and allow CIGS to
lift quickly into the overnight period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018
Record Low Temperatures (year set):
---------------------------------
October 15 October 16
Topeka 27 (1891) 24 (1966)
Concordia 28 (1943) 24 (1966)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008>010-020-021-034.
Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ008>010-020-034.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for KSZ026-037>040-
054-055.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ011-012-021>024-035-036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...65