Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/02/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
920 PM MDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM MDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Despite a notable increase in moisture across western Colorado and eastern Utah over the past 24 hours, radar indicated very little activity at mid-evening. With the exception of an area of showers in the Pagosa Springs area, and another over extreme northwest Colorado/northeast Utah, radar indicated no activity. Latest HRRR and other short range models hold off additional showers until later tonight. Therefore, have adjusted PoP fields accordingly and have updated forecast to reflect these changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Deeper moisture in the southwest flow has arrived to southeast UT, southwest CO and portions of central CO, which has resulted in scattered showers and expansive cloud cover. Across northeast UT better surface heating below steep midlevel lapse rates is allowing for isolated thunderstorms to develop. There should be a gradual decrease in showers and storms this afternoon with a lull in the precipitation this evening. Chances should increase around and after midnight as several vorticity maximas associated with the remnants of Hurricane Rosa move over the region. The wind speeds will also increase out of the southwest focusing the upslope flow over the San Juan mountains. The last of the vorticity maximum should track over the forecast area tomorrow evening followed by relatively drier air that advects in from the southwest. The enhanced lift coinciding with the deeper moisture should increase the potential for heavy rainfall. The start of the Flash Flood Watch has been adjusted to account for the slightly earlier arrival of precipitation late tonight. The watch has also been expanded to include the rest of southwest CO and southeast UT. Rainfall amounts are still expected to generally be around 0.5 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 4 inches within the watch area. The higher amounts should be confined to the San Juans and the greatest flood potential will be in and near the more recent burn scars. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Oct 1 2018 On Wednesday the closed midlevel low pressure off the coast of CA will begin to come onshore and weaken into an open wave. The deeper moisture and associated lift appears to focus mainly over northeast UT and northwest CO, while the remaining areas get to dry out with the exception of isolated showers. That wave continues lifting northeastward on Thursday pushing a cold front through the region. The 700 mb temperatures may drop as low as 1.5 C causing snow levels to drop although most of the precipitation will be coming to an end. Perhaps a few inches of snow are possible in the highest elevations of the San Juan and Elk mountains by mid day Thursday. On the heels of that system another shortwave trough tracks over the northern Rockies bringing another cold front through the area. The 700 mb temperatures get to near freezing and there may be some minor precipitation as that front advances eastward mostly during the day Friday. The snowfall may be minimized given the relatively high sun angle this time of year during the day. Perhaps the highest peaks in the Park Range could receive some snow. Yet another shortwave trough digs over the Four Corners and eventually closes off this weekend. This system will bring cooler air to the area and widespread precipitation. The models are in slightly better agreement with the evolution of this trough although there is still time to fine tune the details. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 546 PM MDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Lowered flight criteria including terrain obscuration will become more common over much of eastern Utah and western Colorado during the early morning hours of Tuesday. About the only TAF sites not affected will be KVEL and KHDN in this forecast cycle. Rainfall will become widespread as tropical moisture moves through the region. Thunderstorms can not be ruled out but will be isolated in nature. Expect persistent ILS to MVFR conditions near and south of a KEGE to KRIL to KTEX line by sunrise through at least mid afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon Oct 1 2018 From 1 to 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts up to 4 hours are possible across the area Tuesday and Wednesday as the remnants of Hurricane Rosa travel overhead. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning for the San Juan mountains, especially for burn scar areas in the San Juans and Uncompahgre Plateau, as well as portions of southwest CO and southeast UT. The 416, Burro and Bull Draw burn scars should be impacted. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM MDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for COZ017>019-021>023. UT...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM MDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for UTZ022-028-029. && $$ UPDATE...NL SHORT TERM...MAC/KJS LONG TERM...MAC/KJS AVIATION...TGJT HYDROLOGY...MAC/KJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Upper level ridging persists across the southeast and south central portions of the United States. Meanwhile a large upper level trough of low pressure is digging southward off the California coast, with tropical storm Rosa moving northeast just off western Baja. West to southwest flow aloft will continue across our area tonight into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Low level moisture continues to linger across western and north central Nebraska. Low clouds are the result, and have had a difficult time burning those off today. Surface low pressure will deepen somewhat along the lee of the Rockies tonight into Tuesday. As this occurs, southeast winds will increase some, which will keep the moisture locked in. Any clearing that has occurred late this afternoon should quickly fill back in tonight as stratus redevelops across the area. Also anticipating areas of fog to develop late tonight into Tuesday morning, with both the HRRR and RAP suggesting visibilities as low as one quarter of a mile across portions of southwest through central and into north central Nebraska. Am skeptical that we will clear out as fast as some of the models indicate for Tuesday. Cloud cover held tough today, and with the southeast upslope moist flow Tuesday, will side with the mesoscale higher resolution models which hold the cloud cover in longer. In fact, central Nebraska may have a hard time clearing at all. This will be reflected in high temperatures, and have lowered several degrees across central and portions of southwest and north central Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Expect a big warm up Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough will cross the area Wednesday morning turning the winds to the west and advecting drier air east across the area. Downslope flow will promote warming, with highs approaching near records (lower 90s) across southwest and central Nebraska. As mentioned the air will be dry as dew points fall into the 40s behind the pre-frontal trough, with humidity values dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range across west central and southwest Nebraska as well as portions of the Panhandle. This could lead to an increase in wildfire potential. In addition, a cold front will quickly cross the area Wednesday evening, brining a gusty wind shift to north-northwest. Mid-level frontogenesis (FGEN) will increase markedly behind the front Wednesday night, with the development of rain likely across the Panhandle into north central Nebraska and a chance elsewhere. Expect the rain to linger into Thursday, with a decrease by Thursday night as the mid-level FGEN begins to decrease. Much colder weather is expected Thursday behind the front with highs ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Unsettled weather will continue Friday and through the weekend into the first of next week. Another disturbance will cross the area Saturday night into Sunday with additional chances for rainfall. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs Friday in the 60s and then 50s for Saturday and Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a deep long wave trough into the Rockies by Monday. This turns flow aloft to southerly across the Central Plains ahead of the trough, bringing additional moisture northward and continued chances for rain. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 The main aviation concern for the next day will the chance for fog development across the southern forecast area. At this time, it is anticipated that fog will only impact the KLBF terminal. Fog could be dense at times with visibilities dropping to near 1 SM. Best timing for fog impacts will be between 10Z and 15Z. Fog will quickly dissipate by mid-morning. VFR conditions will remain at KVTN through Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Wednesday will be monitored closely for elevated and potentially near-critical fire weather conditions. As a broad upper ridge centered over the Southeast U.S. begins to break down, a progressive trough rides along the northern tier of the country and a closed low comes on shore in SoCal. At the surface, a strong cold front works through the forecast area during the afternoon. The current forecast shows unseasonably warm temperatures in the 80s, wind gusts to 35 mph, and RH as low as 25 percent. The 01/12z suite is in general agreement with 25kt downslope flow and a thermal ridge pushing temps to 23C at H85. However, this synoptic pattern including the downsloping winds is conducive to warmer and drier conditions than models predict. To make matters more worrisome, the fropa will create a rapid wind shift around peak heating of the day. Will highlight potential for elevated fire weather conditions in the HWO and hit heavily in the FWF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taylor SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Kulik FIRE WEATHER...Snively
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
945 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 944 PM CDT Broad area of convection is moving east across northern Illinois, with embedded cold pools helping for a slight southeast evolution as well. Embedded well-defined small linear segments have presented an isolated 40+ mph wind threat, but these have all been north of the effective warm front, limiting their severe weather chances. There has been transient brief rotation as well but that storm behavior has been even further north of the boundary and far from ideal for tornadic potential. The 1014 mb surface low is now located over Kane/McHenry Counties, with the effective warm front draped east-southeast from there across the southern metro and very far northwest Indiana. Storm behavior in the vicinity of the front has been fairly anemic, probably due to being removed from the stronger forcing for upward motion with the sheared short wave and mid-level speed max. Will continue to monitor for some stronger storm potential with winds mainly near the frontal boundary though as the storms move through Chicago, however radar and observations show an outflow boundary propagating out likely indicating less of a threat. Storms should show a diminishing trend on their southern periphery through early overnight. As for rainfall, there has been some training of efficient rain- producing multicell storms with around one inch of rain picked up quickly under the first storms in far northern Illinois, and then additional moderate rain for an hour or two behind that. This has all been within tolerance of any flash flooding level, though it will prime conditions some for more probable episodes of rain later this week. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 209 PM CDT Through Tonight... The threat for severe weather continues to be the primary forecast concern in the near term. Low pressure is analyzed over south central Iowa this afternoon with a warm front draped east across portions of northern Illinois. Across the local forecast area, the front stretches from near Pontiac, IL to Rensselaer, IN as of about 300 pm CDT. Extensive cloud cover has been in place north of the front through the day, while south, early clearing has given way to a developing cumulus field in the warm sector. Modest MLCAPE of 600-1000 J/kg will continue to build across the warm sector this afternoon. Meanwhile, large scale ascent will increase across the region in response to a sheared vort max racing east across the plains and Upper Midwest in addition to left exit region of the upper jet moving across the area. Ongoing area of showers and thunderstorms within warm air advection across eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin will continue to gradually shift east in response, but could also see some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing along the surface warm front in the local CWA as it lifts to near the I-80 corridor late this afternoon. Models continue to paint different pictures on the possibility of discrete activity along the warm front late this afternoon and early evening, thus confidence continues to remain lower with respect to these earlier storms. Early afternoon satellite imagery does not yet show much in the way of robust cu growth and thickening cirrus is inhibiting insolation. Still, will have to closely monitor this area over the next several hours for possible convective initiation. Early evening forecast hodographs from the RAP show cyclonically curved wind profiles with moderately strong deep layer shear overspreading the region supporting at least a supercell threat in addition to a small tornado threat. Storm motions appear to run largely parallel to the orientation of the warm front which appears concerning from a severe/tornado perspective. Surface low is expected to shift east across northern Illinois mid to late this evening, likely between the I-80 and I-90 corridors and, along with the trailing cold front, will serve as the focus for the greatest coverage of thunderstorms this evening. Given the strong forcing, storms mode should become linear with time and the primary severe threat will transition to mainly damaging winds. Main change in the forecast was to delay slightly the timing of the cold front later into the evening. Deubelbeiss && .LONG TERM... 209 PM CDT Tuesday through Monday... The extended period continues to look rather active, especially Wednesday night into early Thursday and again late Friday and into the weekend. A cold front will drop south across the area into Tuesday morning before stalling out over central IL during the day. As it does so, some lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm may linger during the morning, especially south of I-80, but the chances for showers will wane by the afternoon. While the chances for precip will be on a downward trend, it does appear that lower level cloud cover will hang on over the area into the afternoon, before scattering some later in the day. Expect high temperatures on Tuesday to range for the mid 60s north to around 80 towards central IL and IN. An upper level impulse is forecast to dig southeastward across British Columbia later Tuesday, before shifting eastward across the northern High Plains into Wednesday. This disturbance will induce an area of surface low pressure over the Dakotas Tuesday night, and should then track east-northeastward into south central Ontario by early Wednesday evening. As this occurs, the cold front settling just to our south on Tuesday will quickly be driven back northward as a warm front early Wednesday. While there is a small chance of a couple of scattered showers or storms will the approach of this warm front Tuesday night, it does appear most of the area will remain dry during this period. Much warmer, and breezy conditions are likely to set up over the area on Wednesday as the surface low moves over MN. South- southwesterly winds could gust as high as 40 mph on Wednesday in response to the strengthening wind field across the region. These winds will also transport an unseasonably mild airmass over the area during the day. With 925 mb temperatures likely to be around 24 degrees C, we will likely experience surface highs well into the 80s Wednesday afternoon. Another cold front, associated with the strong low shifting over Ontario Wednesday night, will push southward over the area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This front could produce a few thunderstorms over the area as it moves towards the area Wednesday night, but due to the poor diurnal timing of the front, it appears the severe threat will be on the lower side as storms will likely be in a weakening phase as they move into the area. Thursday then looks to be a mainly dry day, expect for the possibly of some lingering shower and storms in my south. Otherwise, cooler conditions (back into the 60s to low 70s) are likely on Thursday. Thursday night through at least early next week it appears the area could be entering an even more active weather pattern. Model and ensemble forecast guidance continues to support the development of a negative PNA-type pattern as a large trough digs over the western CONUS and an upper level ridge builds over the east. This type of amplified pattern is a fairly classic one for producing active weather over the central CONUS due to an active southwesterly upper level jet over the region. Also, given that this larger scale pattern may also remain locked in place for a few days this weekend into next week, it appears that we could experience several waves of shower and thunderstorms during this period. While there is higher confidence in active weather over the central portion of the county this weekend into early next week due to larger scale pattern, there still is a good amount of uncertainty on the smaller scale details, such the track of individual areas of low pressure, and the actual placement of surface frontal boundaries. These smaller scale details will certainly play a role in determining the best focus and timing for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and possible flooding. Additionally, temperatures could be tricky during this period, with the possibilities for some roller coaster type temperatures as frontal boundaries waver near the area. This period will need to be watched in the coming days. The potential exists for some areas nearby to receive several rounds of heavy rainfall, and given that some area rivers are already high, flooding could become a significant concern for some. Also, given the strong atmospheric dynamics, some areas nearby could see some strong or severe thunderstorms this weekend. KJB && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Main concerns in the near term continue to be with the thunderstorm potential this evening, though a slight delay is appearing likely. Latest radar imagery showing much of any development still situated well west of the terminals at this time. Although some scattered showery development may occur through mid evening, the more widespread and stronger thunderstorm development will likely not arrive until late this evening and overnight hours. Given the delay, there is some potential for lower intensity of storms tonight. Window of thunderstorm development will then shift east overnight, with a drying trend likely into early Tuesday morning. VFR ceilings this evening will lower overnight, and continue this trend into early Tuesday morning with MVFR and IFR ceilings expected. Winds will vary through the period, with this most prevalent this evening. Then anticipate a shift to more of a northerly direction Tuesday morning. Rodriguez && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1001 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .UPDATE... Very isold convection across eastern portions of north LA. Expect this to diminish before midnight./07/. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018/ AVIATION... Widely scattered diurnal convection will begin to dissipate with setting sun. A few showers around ktyr terminal, with heavier showers movg north of the ktyr and kggg terminals, and other terminals likely not affected by nearby convection attm. Patchy fog and possible low clouds could affect all areal terminals overnight, with best potential for dense fog at ktyr terminal where wet ground and high sfc rh values in place. Fog may be limited at some spots by presence of mid and upper lvl clouds overnight. Aftn convection Tue very isold if at all, with southerly winds near 5 kts and scattered cumulus clouds./07/. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018/ SHORT TERM... The latest mid-level analysis indicates a broad 500mb ridge centered across the northern Gulf and extending from Texas across the ArkLaTex/ArklaMiss eastward into the Carolinas. Locally, there are a pair of disturbances (vort maxes), the first located across northwestern Louisiana and the second in southeast Texas near Houston. At the surface, high pressure off the mid-Atlantic extends southwestward across the southeast and into Texas. The remnants of a weak frontal boundary extends from Monroe southwestward to Lufkin. The latest RAP mesoanalysis indicates an area of 3000-3500 J/kg CAPE extending from Lufkin northeastward into northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. An instability gradient has setup across our area with weak weaker instability (1000-1500 J/kg) in southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. The pair of mid-level disturbances will shift across the area this afternoon and tonight, providing a source of lift for showers and thunderstorms. The best coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to coincide with strongest instability from Lufkin eastward into northwest and central Louisiana as the first piece of mid-level energy moves across the area this afternoon and early evening. This will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms for these locations with more isolated showers and storms north and west of Shreveport. Tonight, with instability diminishing with the loss of heating, showers and thunderstorms will mostly diminish. Have left in a slight chance of showers overnight as the second disturbance from Houston moves into central Louisiana and provides some lift for areas primarily south and east of Shreveport. Fog will be most prevalent in locations which see rainfall this afternoon with patchy fog anticipated elsewhere. Lows overnight will range from the upper 60s across southeast Arkansas and McCurtain County, Oklahoma to the lower 70s southward. Tomorrow and tomorrow night, the mid-level ridge will continue to edge westward as it becomes centered across the ArkLaMiss. This will serve to suppress showers and thunderstorms for the majority. GFS/NAM show some inconsistency in bringing the next mid-level disturbance across the area tomorrow, ranging from its location being in east Texas (NAM) to northern Louisiana (GFS). Given an unstable environment paired with forcing and little or no coverage indicated by mesoscale models, just a slight chance of thunderstorms is predicted across the Four State region. Less cloud coverage is anticipated on Tuesday, contributing to warmer high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s across the area. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be mostly in the lower 70s. /04/ LONG TERM... The much advertised upper level ridge of high pressure will build heights aloft and continue around 590-592dam for the ArkLaTex through the end of the work week allowing for warmer temperatures areawide. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to around 90 at least through Friday. Then we will scale back the heat with additional clouds and lowering heights aloft as the long wave trough out West nudges the upper ridge out of the picture for us. Surface winds will continue out of the S/SE through the weekend so while the Gulf moisture may support diurnally driven convection each day along weak sea-breeze boundaries, the upper-ridge expansion aloft will limit the convective coverage from isolated to maybe widely scattered along a South of I-20 during the work week. As the upper ridge shifts eastward, the deep southerly flow will increase wind speeds on the both the surface and aloft ahead of a strong cold front which will amp up the moisture being imported into the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will do much better inland off the Gulf on Saturday with the center of the ridge much farther East. Then shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday will be edging in from the West and still off of the Gulf with the long wave encroachment. In any event, it will be a bit cooler with the lower heights aloft and the added clouds and rain areas even more so into Monday as the front gets closer. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 89 72 90 / 10 20 10 10 MLU 72 90 71 90 / 20 20 20 10 DEQ 69 86 69 88 / 10 20 10 10 TXK 70 86 70 88 / 10 20 10 10 ELD 71 88 71 90 / 20 20 20 10 TYR 70 86 71 88 / 10 20 10 10 GGG 71 88 71 89 / 10 20 10 10 LFK 71 88 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
350 PM MST Mon Oct 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers with occasional thunderstorms into Tuesday especially west to north of Tucson. Gusty winds should also occur Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, then mainly dry conditions Thursday into Saturday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns early next week with gusty winds and continued below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring at this time across Greenlee, Graham and Cochise Counties east of Tucson. Other isolated showers producing very light rain were northwest to north of Tucson. Several HRRR solutions suggest that showers/tstms east of Tucson will gradually decrease in coverage early this evening. Thereafter, the focus of attention will turn westward as scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms move into western sections of this forecast area later this evening. The bulk of rainfall later tonight into Tuesday should occur northwest to north of Tucson. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur elsewhere Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Gusty generally southerly winds will also prevail Tuesday afternoon into evening. Rainfall chances begin to decrease Wednesday as the bulk of deeper moisture moves north to east of this forecast area. However, an upper trough over the area combined with lingering moisture will translate into isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. A broad trough will prevail over the western CONUS Thursday through Saturday. Various 01/12Z numerical weather prediction solutions depicted impulses embedded within this trough will move eastward into the central/southern Rockies. However, the models also suggest that measurable rainfall will primarily occur from the Mogollon Rim northward into Utah. Thus, a slight chance of showers/tstms continues Thursday mainly across the White Mountains, then have maintained dry conditions across much of this forecast area Friday into Saturday. Thereafter, the deterministic 01/12Z GFS/ECMWF and associated ensembles were fairly similar with depicting a sharply deepening upper trough over the southwestern CONUS Sunday into Monday. A chance of showers/tstms returns early next week, especially east of Tucson. A slight chance of showers/tstms is also warranted from Tucson westward into the Tohono O`odham Nation and south central Pinal County. Have maintained precip-free conditions across western Pima County Sunday into Monday. If subsequent model solutions remain consistent, then would not be surprised to see PoPs adjusted upward markedly versus this forecast issuance. The markedly lower heights/ thicknesses suggest that accumulating snowfall may occur by next Monday across the higher White Mountain peaks. The very tight mid-level gradient progged via these solutions also suggests that gusty southwest to west winds especially during the afternoon hours. A warming trend will occur Tuesday especially from Tucson westward into western Pima County, but only very minor temp changes are on tap Tuesday versus Monday across eastern sections. Additional warming is on tap Wednesday with high temps trending closer to seasonal normals. Expect no significant change in daytime temps Thursday thru Saturday, then cooler temps are increasingly likely Sunday and especially next Monday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z. Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA east of KTUS ending this evening, then numerous -SHRA and isolated -TSRA mainly west to north of KTUS later tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Expect MVFR conditions and occasional IFR conditions. Otherwise, cloud decks mainly 4k-10k ft AGL. Surface wind variable in direction mainly less than 12 kts into Tuesday morning, then surface wind generally southerly 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Widespread showers with occasional thunderstorms through Tuesday. The higher rainfall amounts will likely occur west to northwest of Tucson. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday especially north of Tucson, then dry conditions across much of the area Thursday into Saturday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Sunday into Monday mainly from Tucson eastward. Gusty south winds to occur Tuesday and gusty southwest winds early next week. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven mainly less than 15 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for AZZ501-502-505- 506. && $$ DISCUSSION...Francis AVIATION...Hardin FIRE WEATHER...Hardin Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at