Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/01/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
839 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Cold and moist low level flow continues to wrap around a surface cyclone now located south of Strasburg. This will bring a threat of fog as far back as the I-25 Corridor from Fort Collins down into the northern sections of Denver overnight. We have expanded the latest fog coverage to account for this. With narrow T/Td spreads, we could see some patchy dense fog as well. There`s a little drizzle noted over the northeast plains so have included that most of the night. Meanwhile, in the mountains it was still very dry and only in the last hour or so have dewpoints responded. There may be enough moisture advection by late tonight or Monday morning for a light sprinkle or flurry over the mountain tops. Tomorrow should begin a slow transition to a more moist and unsettled weather pattern for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Southwest flow will continue over Colorado through tonight and Monday. Shallow cool and moist airmass over eastern Colorado will be slow to modify and retreat. Eventually, south to southwest winds surface winds will spread northeastward and push out the cooler airmass. It may take until Monday morning for parts of the eastern plains and South Platte river valley to scour out the colder air. Moisture will increase tonight and Monday. In addition to the increasing moisture, a weak trough embedded in the southwest flow will track across the Central Rockies Monday. This system is expected to produce scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms over the mountains. HRRR and RAP models show some convection over eastern Colorado, mainly south of I-76. Added some low pops to the forecast for this. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 The plume of very moist and unstable subtropical air coupled to the remnants of Hurricane Rosa is still progged to continue its northeast trajectory across the Four Corners region on Tuesday, and then eventually shear out across Colorado/southern Wyoming Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. With its passage, integrated precipitable water values rise from around a half inch across western Colorado late Monday night to slightly more than an inch across most of Colorado by Tuesday afternoon. Models also show 850-500mb specific humidities peaking over southwest Colorado late Tuesday as the last of Rosa moves its way across the area. Lapse rates are only marginally unstable and 700-500mb QG omega is only slightly negative/indicating weak ascent with the passage of this feature. With that said, orographic forcing produced by a deep south- southwest flow should provide the addition lift necessary for scattered to numerous showers over higher elevations of the CWA during the Tuesday-Tuesday night time frame. Whereas east of the mtns, sfc-500mb layer subsidence and drying the product of this same southwest flow should keep precip chances quite low on the plains, just plenty of mid-level cloudiness with temperatures continuing to creep upwards. By Wednesday, a passing shortwave ridge will lessen precip chances for the high country and keep conditions dry and warm east of the mtns. Temperature guidance shows Wednesday high temps on the plains a couple degs F warmer than those on Tuesday, with low to mid 80s both days some 10-15 degs above the seasonal norm. By Wednesday night, could see an abrupt shift to wetter and cooler conditions with another batch of mid-level forcing and deep upslope flow with a rather strong cold front backing up against the Front Range during the evening hours. Scattered to likely PoPs in order for the Front Range and northeast plains with QPF generally under a quarter inch, with locally up to a half inch possible with t-storms in the northeast corner of the CWA by morning. Thursday through Sunday, medium range models continue to trend colder and wetter across the West with a series of shortwave troughs digging down the West Coast and eventually carving out a broad, very moist upper trough over the Intermountain West by the weekend. GFS continues to be the wetter/colder of the models, although the 12z/run of the ECMWF has converged on the GFS solution. The Canadian model still quite dry and warm through Sunday morning with strong dry slotting around the upper trough hanging back over the Great Basin. The GFS also shows dry slotting over ern Colorado but not before 30-36 hours of cold and moist upslope precip along and east of the Front Range. GFS wetbulb temps appear cold enough for a wet snow down to around 5000 feet. We`ll see. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 839 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 We are becoming more concerned with the threat of low clouds and fog wrapping back as far south as KDEN and KBJC overnight. Low level flow pattern supports the stratus on the plains to wrap around in cyclonic fashion, possibly reaching KDEN by 08Z-10Z. Visibilities down to 1/4SM and VV002 possible with the narrow T/Td spreads and upslope flow wrapping into KDEN with shallow WNW winds up the slope out of the South Platte River. Will have to watch this closely for the next several hours. If it does form, we hope to see some improvement by 13Z or shortly thereafter for the morning rush as low level flow may attempt to turn more southerly toward this time. Again, it might be a matter of a couple miles whether or not DIA sees improvement. Otherwise VFR conditions can be expected. There is just a slight chance of a high based shower or two moving off the mountains from the southwest by 21Z Monday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Barjenbruch SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...Baker AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
616 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Tranquil conditions are becoming established within the region, and those should last for the next several hours. However, model guidance suggests that another overnight burst of convection will occur and affect the aerodromes after midnight and/or around sunrise. High cirrus debris and moderate winds will prevail tomorrow in the wake of the convection. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday night): Precipitation is in a bit of a lull at the moment, per KBRO radar, as activity associated with a possible MCV out west lifts northward and offshore showers and storms wane with the diurnal cycle. HRRR still hinting at some redevelopment within the next few hours, which is consistent with some additional insolation resulting from thinning cloud cover seen on visible satellite. So, have held on to scattered PoP`s out west early this evening but more isolated east. 12Z runs of NAM/GFS indicating some light coastal showers possible late tonight as well. Overnight lows should again be in the low-mid 70`s with mostly cloudy skies. With light winds, wet ground, and following the trend of obs from last night, have added some patchy fog to the weather grids for the northwestern ranchlands later tonight into early Monday morning as well. Speaking of tomorrow, H5 ridging will be gradually nosing back westward into the region, leading to some drying of mid-levels during the afternoon, especially for the eastern third or so of the CWA. PW still progged to run 1.8-1.9" areawide, though, so looks like a "sea-breezy" kind of day. Scaled back a bit on PoP`s (reduced 10% or so), as guidance not going much above 30% anywhere, especially eastern/coastal areas during the afternoon. With a bit more sun, especially later in the day, high temps on Monday should recover to near 90F along the Rio Grande (where heat indices will near 100F for the first day of October) with upper 80s elsewhere. Also of note, a long easterly fetch of surface winds sets up across the Gulf by Monday. Swells at buoys around the western Gulf have come up to about 3 feet already this afternoon, though period is relatively short (~6 sec) thus far. Tides at Brazos Santiago Pass running about 0.5 feet above predicted recently. Astronomical high tides peak around midnight next couple days, so if the delta of 0.5 feet holds, water level could reach about 2.5 feet MLLW/1.0 ft. MHHW. This could conceivably reach the dune line where the beach is narrower on SPI, but not confident enough yet for any coastal flood statements. Rip current risk likely become moderate on Monday, too. Gradual column drying continues into Monday night, with only isolated light showers (at best) expected. Min temps for Tuesday morning nudge up a couple of degrees, to the mid-upper 70s. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): 500 mb high pressure will begin to build over the Southeast U.S. and edge into East Texas through the middle of the week. This should bring much drier air and subsidence to Deep South Texas, however, ample moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger through at least Tuesday. The GFS brings drier air in quicker than the ECMWF with 12-hour PoPs around 20 to 30% and the ECMWF keeping percentages of around 50 to 60%. Have leaned on the drier side with the high expected to influence our pattern as early as Monday. The rest of the week, more seabreeze-like convection is expected with light easterly flow and much shallower moisture. The best chances of rain will be along the coast and over the marine areas. The surface high will stretch across the northern Gulf with potential for increasing swells due to persistent E to ESE winds. Tides have been running around 0.5 feet above predicted and we could see minor coastal flooding around high tide cycles, which are currently in the late evening. By mid week, winds shift to a more typical SE flow, which would drop swells back down. Aside from low-end rain chances inland, temperatures will be several degrees above normal. Have increased afternoon highs just slightly up about a degree with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s. Dry air and subsidence around the high should also allow areas to dry out after recent heavy rainfall. MARINE (Now through Monday night): Light-to-moderate onshore winds will be maintained through the period as high-pressure ridging extends into the Gulf from the southeastern U. S. high. Swells at offshore buoys have built to around 3.0 ft. this afternoon with a period around 6 seconds. Wave model guidance doesn`t show this building much higher, though, even with the developing easterly fetch across the Gulf, so combined seas should remain at 4 ft. or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms become more isolated by later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tuesday through Sunday: A series of surface lows developing in the Plains will periodically tighten the pressure gradient across the Western Gulf, increasing winds and building swells. Not expecting any Small Craft Advisories, but "exercise caution" conditions will be possible towards the end of the week and into the weekend. With shallow moisture lingering across the region, slight chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
632 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Quite the temperature gradient across SW Kansas. Just between Ford and Finney counties was a 20-30 degree temperature difference. This gradient is association with a frontal boundary and related stratus that extends from Liberal to Garden City to Larned. Forecast soundings across the northern zones do suggest the potential for fog and drizzle this evening and through the overnight hours. Otherwise, this front will continue to move south along with cooler air. Lows tonight will range from the 40s northwest to 60s southeast. Other than the drizzle, the rest of the forecast area will remain dry. Tomorrow will be another tricky forecast temperature day. Stratus will once again be a concern across the northern zones. I have cooled down the northern zones to upper 60s and this may be a bit too warm should the stratus be stubborn again. Elsewhere, 80s to near 90F is expected, particularly as one heads closer to the Oklahoma state line. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 For Tuesday and Wednesday, this pesky frontal boundary mentioned in the short term will lift well to the north with SW Kansas firmly in the warm sector. A strong downslope flow pattern is expected Wednesday with widespread 90s in the forecast. Truth be told, given how dry it has been recently, the forecast highs for Wednesday might be a degree or two too cold. It is an excellent downslope pattern and the furnace southwesterly winds are expected. Beyond this, a cold front moves through late Thursday. Moisture looks to be shunted off to the southeast and east, so there is only low chances for showers and thunderstorms. The EC is still showing a much stronger cold front next weekend with stronger UL dynamics associated with a deep shortwave trough. Time will tell. Confidence still remains low toward the end of the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Models in decent agreement with a surface cold front moving slowly across south central Kansas tonight and the MVFR/IFR ceilings behind this frontal boundary expanding/lowering through the overnight hours. Based on 22UTC observations at Hays the near term models appear to be underestimating the fog potential early tonight in north central Kansas. At this time will still follow the general trend of fog expanding after sunset across north central and southwest Kansas but did begin the 00z TAFS at HAY with fog and introduce some MVFR visibilities at Dodge and Garden City quicker than what the latest HRRR suggests. Also given the expected northeast winds at 10 knots or less overnight some dense fog will be a good possibility but at this time where this will occur is still somewhat unclear. Did go with LIFR visibilities at Hays by 06z. Will monitor and adjust the MVFR visibilities if needed at Garden City and Dodge City that is currently expected after 03z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 50 83 64 87 / 0 0 0 10 GCK 50 80 60 87 / 0 0 0 10 EHA 49 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 LBL 49 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 HYS 49 68 58 86 / 30 10 10 0 P28 61 89 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
748 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 An active weather pattern is expected over the course of the next week for the Great Lakes region. Low pressure systems moving through the area will bring bouts of showers and occasionally thunderstorms. The main impact for Southwest Lower Michigan will be heavy rain and the threat of some minor flooding. The first threat for heavy rain will come with a warm front located across the area tonight and then with a low moving along the front Monday night. Additional rainfall will come Wednesday night with a cold frontal passage. A couple of different low pressure systems Friday and Saturday will bring more rain. Temperatures this week will be near to above normal for the first week of October in the 60s into the 70s for highs. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 The main item of concern in the 7 day forecast is the threat for locally heavy rain. The good thing is rivers are in the normal range for the most part with plenty of room for rise before we get to bankfull. Smaller creeks and streams are likely going to see rises with the potential for some ponding of water in low lying areas in the heavier bursts of rain. The first two main bouts of rain will come tonight and again Monday night. It will rain on Monday too though. A warm front situated across Southern Lower Michigan this evening will remain near the Michigan/Indiana line both tonight and for much of Monday. A low level jet hitting the 850mb warm front aloft will focus the heavier rain across our forecast area. This setup is our typical heaviest rain setup. The NAM has a band of 1-2 inches along and north of the I-96 corridor tonight with additional heavier rain into Monday. The 12z HRRR is similar with 1-2 inches tonight with more coming tomorrow. By 00z Monday evening, the HRRR has a 3-4 inch swath through the area. A good surge of moisture out of the south on a 30-40 knot LLJ will push PWAT values into the 1.25 to 1.50 zone. These values are over the 90th percentile for this time of year. Bottom line, we are concerned about a swath of heavier rain tonight into Monday that will likely reach 1-3 inches in spots, with higher amounts possible. Given antecedent conditions being fairly dry will not be issuing any hydro headlines at this point. Another round of heavier rain will come Monday night as a weak low pressure area rides northeast along the front. Monday night will have more in the the way of dynamics in play as a 500mb shortwave swings east through the area. The low level jet ramps up further and reaches 40-50 knots. PWAT values surge further to close to 1.75 inches which would by near max values ever recorded this time of year based on the SPC sounding climatology for KDTX. The heavy rain threat obviously continues for Monday night and based on what falls in the next 24 hours, we may need hydro headlines in terms of an areal watch potentially for Monday night. The swaths of heavy rain looks to be fairly narrow, but if it is a wider zone headlines are possible. In terms of severe weather potential, the threat does not look all that great given instability is rather low. CAPE values surge to around 1000 j/kg Monday evening, especially in the southwest towards BIV and LWA. The shear is impressive with 0-6km bulk shear near 50 knots and a lot of low level helicity. The issue is instability may be lacking. On the upside, we will have a warm front in the area and a low moving along it. We will have to monitor the amount of clearing and instability Monday afternoon which will may advect in from the south and be in place for the evening. At this point, I feel our severe weather prospects are low. The front drops south of the area on Tuesday only to come back north on Wednesday. Rain is in the forecast on Wednesday with the warm front with higher pops on Wednesday night with a cold frontal passage. Additional rain chances are in place for Friday and Saturday as multiple low pressure systems ride back into the area from the southwest. Hydro issues may continue to creep up based on our chances for rain right through the 7 day forecast and potentially beyond. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 750 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 For the most part IFR ceiling will prevail at all taf sites into Tuesday. The I-94 TAF site were closer to the front so the ceilings lifted to VFR but the frontal wave has moved east and that will allow the front to sage south overnight. So even JXN will be IFR by 02z or so. AZO and BTl as of 2340z have become IFR (low clouds moved back in). The front is expected to push north tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. So, once again the I-94 TAF sites may see ceiling lift some once again. As for precipitation, the areas of scattered light rain will be around till around 04z or so. Then a more solid area of rain will move over the all of the TAF site. As another wave on the front tracks just south of the area during the mid morning hours thunderstorms with steady moderate to heavy rain is possible across all TAF sties. Once that wave moves east the heavy rain will move out but some drizzle or light rain will linger into the afternoon. Expect additional heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 An active weather pattern will affect Lake Michigan as well. Stronger low pressure systems moving through the Great Lakes will create higher winds and therefore larger waves. Tonight, fairly stiff east winds over 20 knots will build larger waves offshore, but not expecting them to occur in the 5 mile wide nearshore zone. Waves will build to 1-3 feet or even 2-4 feet at times through Tuesday, but expecting conditions to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Wednesday into Wednesday night in the next time frame we may need a Small Craft Advisory in strong south flow. So, the zones north of Holland will be most likely to see waves over 4 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 148 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Despite some areas reporting nearly 1 inch of rainfall over the last 24 hours, we continue to see rivers remain fairly steady this afternoon. Additional rainfall is expected for central lower MI through early Tuesday with up to 1 to 3 inches possible. Within bank rises are expected for most rivers. A swath of locally higher rainfall greater than 3 inches is still not out of question, and could result in the greater potential for minor flooding particularly in smaller rivers and streams. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duke DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...Duke MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1106 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will move south Monday morning before stalling. On Tuesday it lifts north bringing more rain. Wednesday high pressure builds in, followed by a cold frontal passage Thursday night. High pressure builds into New England late in the week and early next weekend before another front approaches from the northwest. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Update...Mainly adjusted PoP to slow timing of likely precip into the area until after 2 AM. May see some showers or sprinkles sneak into Nrn NH prior to then...but measurable precip should wait until later. Used a time-lagged blend of HRRR PoP for timing. And with temps hovering near freezing and cooling temps aloft of MWN...I have added some wet flakes to the forecast on the highest summits of the Whites. Previous discussion...Models in good agreement allowing a frontal boundary to drift southward across the area tonight. Along the boundary some light rain will develop over northern areas later in the evening and then spread to southern areas later at night. Accepted POPs from a blend of the NAM/GFS. Temps will be warmer tonight due to the mixing and clouds. Accepted blended temps off the models. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... The light rain drifts south with the boundary and lingers into the morning over southern areas. Total QPF from RFC for this system was accepted, which was mostly less than .10 inches. The front stalls just south of the area by Monday afternoon allowing a weak ridge of high pres to briefly build N-S into the region. Clouds will linger. Monday will be cool with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Monday night high pres moves east into the maritimes as the next stronger short wave races east from the midwest and pushes the low and mid level baroclinic zone to our south to drift north and strengthen as warm moist air in the mid levels pushes north over the boundary. This will set the stage for a widespread rain event to develop Monday night that will continue into the extended period of the forecast. RFCQPF handles this well. Blend of temps guidance accepted which gives overnight lows in the 40s north to lower 50s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A fast flow will continue with the jet stream rapidly sending weak systems across the CONUS. Models attempting to time each impulse in the fast flow. Low pressure will exit the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. An easterly winds will likely develop allowing some moisture to arrive off the Gulf of Maine. Otherwise, a fast flow aloft will mainly be from the southwest. Showers will cross the region through Tuesday night, bringing up to an inch of new rainfall to portions of Maine and New Hampshire. A weak ridge of high pressure will make a brief return to the region on Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate as well with readings well into the 60s. A strong cold front will approach the region from the Great Lakes area on Thursday. This will allow for a band of showers to cross the region from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures ahead of the front will reach the lower 70s over southern interior areas Thursday afternoon with H8 temperatures around +16C. Ridging and warm temperatures aloft may prevent thunderstorms during this period with relatively unimpressive instability across the region. High pressure will then build south from Canada for Friday and the first part of next weekend. A front over the Saint Lawrence River Valley may bring more showers to northern portions of Maine and New Hampshire late in the weekend. Confidence levels remain relatively low for the details and timing in the shower activity for this week due to the fast flow aloft. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions expected thru the early morning hours...about 09z. SHRA will move in from the W...but I do not think MVFR will be more widespread until around 12z. That area of SHRA sinks Swd thru the day...allowing Nrn terminals to improve back to VFR. Some hints of stratus near the coast mid morning to early afternoon Mon...but not ready to bite and put in the TAFs just yet. Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions develop Mon night in more widespread developing RA. Long Term...Expect areas of MVFR conditions in showers and patchy fog Tuesday, Wednesday and again Thursday evening. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds/Seas remain below SCA conditions through Mon night although seas build to around 5 ft over the outermost waters toward Tue morning. Long Term...SCAs are possible Tuesday into Wednesday and again on Friday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Currently... Boundary made it all the way to the mtns and max temps over the lower elevations have remained cool. Temps out in Kiowa county at 2 pm were in the upper 50s while mid 70s were noted over the Walsenburg area. Warmest temps were actually in the mid ark rvr valley and wet mtn valley where readings were in the upper 70s. San Luis Valley was generally in the M70s. Low clouds were still hanging tough along the CO/KS border. Tonight... Main concern is how far west the clouds will make it back. HRRR shows low clouds making it as far west as the wet mtns, and possibly as far as COS. and KTAD. In the meantime, high clouds will also be on the increase after midnight as high level tropical moisture associated with TC Rosa moves across the SW CONUS. As for min temps, Expect to see lows in the 40s and 50s most locations with 30s in the mtns. With the increasing moisture from Rosa, isolated showers will be possible tonight along the contdvd later tonight, with some showers possible along the Sangres towards sunrise. Tomorrow Lots of mid and high clouds are likely across the region, and showers and thunderstorms will be increasing over the contdvd region during the afternoon time period. Lower levels are likely going to dry out per guidance and expect temps should recover into the 70s and 80s over the plains, but these values may be a tad too warm given the mid and high level cloudiness which is likely going to remain over the region. By late in the day, a few showers/isold thunder will be possible over the Palmer Divide. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Monday night through Wednesday...The remnants of Rosa will be moving across the CA Baja and into the Desert SW Mon night and Tue, while a closed low associated with the Pacific trough strengthens off the CA coastline. Continuous southwest flow aloft will draw abundant moisture up into western CO, with the brunt of pcpn falling along and west of the Continental Divide. There is a slim chance that the expected rainfall could produce some localized flash flooding concerns along the Divide for area burn scars, but will hold off on any highlight issuance at this time and will allow following shifts to monitor developing guidance. Expect max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to near 90F for the plains. Thursday and Friday...The closed low off the CA coast moves onshore late Wed, swinging across the region on Thu. At the same time, the upper trough slides east across the Pacific NW and northern Rockies, dropping another disturbance southeast towards the state for Fri. This will push two cold fronts back into eastern CO, one early Thu morning and another Fri morning. Isolated pcpn potential spreads across the plains as well as the higher terrain, with increased cloud cover and cooler temps. Look for high temps in the 60s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to upper 70s for the plains. Saturday and Sunday...Differences between the EC and GFS models appear over the weekend, as a longwave trough deepens over the western half of the country and a strong closed low develops. The GFS is farther west with this feature, while the EC places the low moreso over UT. Both scenarios would be favorable for significant mountain snow, and considering this is Day 6 and 7 of the forecast period, the solutions are not that far apart. Look for highs in the 60s for most areas on Sat, then around 60F for the high valleys and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains on Sun. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018 VFR next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds will occur this afternoon. High clouds will increase late tonight through tomorrow morning. Isold thunder will be possible tomorrow afternoon. KCOS... Anticipating VFR next 24 hours. However there is a slight chance of some low cigs late tonight into mid morning tomorrow. For now probability too low to explicitly mention in TAF product, but latest guidance continues to show low clouds getting close to KCOS towards morning. Breezy southerly flow expected this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. KPUB... Main concern will be later tonight as low cigs will likely move into the KPUB area towards 09 UTC tomorrow and will last into mid morning. Otherwise VFR conditions anticipated. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH
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