Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/29/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
823 PM MDT Fri Sep 28 2018 .DISCUSSION...Thin cirrus clouds and a layer of smoke aloft have increased across the area this evening. The smoke originated from wild fires in southwestern Oregon and does not seem to be making it to the surface. There haven`t been any observed reductions in surface visibilities across southeastern Oregon or southwestern Idaho. The latest runs of the experimental HRRR smoke model show this layer of smoke becoming thinner and moving north of the area tomorrow. Meanwhile, in the remote central mountains of Idaho, the Prospect Fire produced a large smoke plume that primarily affected wilderness areas today. Some of the smoke from the Prospect fire could drain into the Idaho 21 corridor above Lowman, Idaho tonight. The forecast remains on track for increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon with a chance of rain tomorrow night in the the northern portion of the forecast area. .AVIATION...VFR. Smoke layers aloft. Surface winds light and variable. Winds aloft near 10K feet MSL southwest 15 to 30 kts. Weekend Outlook...High and mid level clouds increasing from the west on Saturday as an upper level trough approaches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms eastern Oregon Saturday evening. Scattered showers Baker County Oregon and the central Idaho mountains late Saturday night through Sunday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...Cut off low, currently off the Northern California Coast, will weaken and drift across the forecast area Saturday Night and Sunday. Best chances for precipitation will be at higher elevations of Eastern Oregon Saturday Night, and higher elevations of Southwest Idaho on Sunday. Valley locations will see little, if any, precip. Main change will be a drop in temperatures for Sunday, with afternoon temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures recover fairly quickly back to normal by Monday afternoon, as a short- wave ridge moves across, ahead of the next trough approaching for Tuesday and Wednesday. LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday...An upper level trough will move east across the Pacific Northwest Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a slight chance of precipitation. This will keep the large upper level low with associated moisture from the Hurricane Rosa well south of the forecast area. Another weaker trough follows for Wednesday night into Thursday for a slight chance of precipitation across the higher terrain. After that trough exits to our south a strong upper ridge moves inland from the north Pacific that should bring dry and warmer weather Friday and beyond. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least Friday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JB AVIATION.....JT PREV SHORT TERM...TB PREV LONG TERM....JS/JS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
932 PM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will slowly drop through the area this weekend, followed by high pressure for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... GOES-E low and mid-level water vapor channels show a modest shortwave moving into southwest Georgia late this evening. This feature is on target to cross the region early Saturday as a weak cold front meanders in from the west. This should help spark the redevelopment of isolated to scattered showers/tstms overnight, especially north of the I-16 corridor. RAP and H3R consensus favors the greatest coverage occurring over interior Southeast South Carolina (closer to the surface front) as well as Charleston County where guidance continues to support the formation of a weak land breeze circulation which could serve as yet another source of low-level convergence. Adjusted hourly pops slightly per going short term model trends, increasing pops across interior Southeast South Carolina into the 40% range. As clouds thicken, expect terminal falls to level out/slow after midnight. Opted to nudge overnight lows up a degree or two for many locations using the 28/11z H3R thermal field as a rough proxy for the low temperature forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday: A slow moving frontal zone hosting a band of deeper moisture is forecast to sag across the forecast area with highest PWATs progged north of I-16 in GA, encompassing most of southern South Carolina and GA areas along the Savannah River. Isolated to scattered convective rains may develop after mid morning across the region, however the best chances for showers and tstms should occur during the afternoon and evening hours. During this time period, moisture convergence and depth, along with weak upper difluence all appear to coincide after convective temps are reached. A few storms could produce locally heavy downpours but wet profiles and marginal mid level instability suggest little to no potential for severe weather. We maintained likely POPs most areas along with highs from the mid 80s north to around 90 degrees closer to the Altamaha River. Sunday and Monday: Surface high pressure will build north and eventually northeast of the forecast area, while mid and upper level ridging expands north and blankets the southeast coast. On Sunday, deeper moisture will reside over Southeast GA while somewhat drier mid level air advects into northern SC zones later in the day. POPs range from likely along and south of I-16 to about 30 percent near Lake Moultrie in Berkeley County. By Monday, deeper moisture should be confined to far south GA, with higher POPs to the south of I-16. Subsidence will likely keep the Charleston Tri-County region mainly dry Monday afternoon. Highs should be close to climo values given the onshore synoptic flow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A large, deep layered ridge will affect the local weather Monday night through Friday. PoPs will be minimal while temps again rise back into the upper 80s which is well above-normal for early October. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. Could see tstms near the KCHS terminal after 09z as a land breeze circulation could help concentrate activity there, but latest data suggest this activity will remain east of the terminal. Uncertainties with respect to convective timing/coverage tomorrow afternoon necessitates taking a conservative approach this far out, thus no mention will be included in the 00z cycle. Extended Aviation Outlook: Increasing chances for convection- related flight restrictions Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a front drops through the area. There is a potential for areas of low clouds several hours around daybreak Sunday and Monday mornings. && .MARINE... Tonight: South winds 10 kt will veer to the west and southwest overnight and diminish. Variable winds are likely by daybreak for much of the local marine areas. Seas will average 2-3 ft nearshore waters and 3-4 ft offshore waters. Saturday through Wednesday: Light and variable flow along a slowly moving frontal zone on Saturday will turn northeast and onshore Sunday, then persisting into much of next week. Wedging high pressure will build in from the north Saturday night through Monday with strengthening northeast winds and building seas expected. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible over the Charleston nearshore waters Sunday night, though much greater potential exists over the offshore GA waters due to 6+ ft seas. In fact, SCA conditions expected to persist through much of next week across the outer GA waters due to persistent onshore flow and potential swell energy from post- tropical cyclone Leslie well offshore. Rip Currents: Distant Subtropical Storm Leslie could send long period swell to our beaches later this weekend into next week. This swell could produce an enhanced risk for rip currents. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... An increase in onshore flow and building swells may result in high tides approaching shallow coastal flooding criteria Sunday and Monday along coastal SC and particularly in Downtown Charleston. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
859 PM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 .DISCUSSION...Convection has decreased considerably with loss of heating this evening with only very isolated light showers in the area. 00Z CRP sounding showed a relatively drier and subsident layer between 800 and 600 mbs. Will decrease PoPs slightly for this evening to slight chance across the northern counties. Will keep low end chance PoPs for the western Brush Country as HRRR shows activity south of Falcon Reservoir could move north toward the area. MSAS analysis shows low level convergence increasing along the coast. With deep moisture in place, could see scattered convection redevelop over the coastal plains before midnight. No changes were made to the forecast after midnight with PoPs ramping up to likely for the coastal plains and coastal waters. Low level convergence will continue to strengthen near the coastal trough and increasing upper level divergent flow will occur as a 25h jet streak moves into south central Texas, this will lead to atmospheric lift increasing with high resolution models showing convection blossoming during the overnight hours. Locally heavy rain will be possible along the coast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 653 PM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018/ DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs. AVIATION...Isolated showers will be possible for a few more hours this evening across the region. Latest HRRR and 12Z HREF depicted the convective activity will wane for the rest of the evening hours. Expect VFR conditions for this evening except for MVFR ceilings developing along the coast by 04Z. Otherwise, region will be under extensive mid level cloud deck. Convection will increase overnight along the coast in region of higher low level convergence near a coastal trough, assisted by an upper level jet streak moving across south-central Texas. MVFR vsbys/ceilings will occur within convection that will develop around 09Z and spread inland through the morning hours. IFR vsbys will be possible with heavy rain in thunderstorms. Activity should reach LRD area by late morning and continue into the afternoon. Coverage of the convection may decrease some by the afternoon over the coastal plains but will keep TEMPO group for coastal sites until mid afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 83 74 85 76 / 70 80 50 70 40 Victoria 72 83 71 84 73 / 60 80 30 70 30 Laredo 73 85 72 86 73 / 40 50 30 50 20 Alice 72 84 72 86 74 / 60 70 50 60 30 Rockport 75 84 75 85 76 / 70 80 50 70 40 Cotulla 72 86 71 86 73 / 40 50 30 50 30 Kingsville 74 84 74 86 75 / 60 80 50 60 30 Navy Corpus 77 84 78 85 79 / 70 80 50 70 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM
East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
936 PM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018 .DISCUSSION... ...High Risk of Dangerous Rip Currents Into This Weekend... Currently-Tonight...Showers and a few storms resulting from late boundary collisions have just about dissipated inland. Data from the Air Force profilers at XMR have shown continuation of deep onshore flow with winds around 10 kt. This onshore flow will potentially contain a few showers mainly south of Sebastian Inlet into Saturday morning. HRRR guidance is not too enthusiastic however on development over the adjacent Atlc waters overnight. Will keep a 20 pct or less mention for the S Brevard coast to Jupiter for psbl activity. Expect temperatures falling into the mid to Upr 70s by daybreak. Prev disc... Sat-Sun...High pressure ridge north of the area will maintain an easterly flow across central Florida into the weekend. Drier mid level air and lingering ridge aloft will keep rain chances out of the forecast for much of the area Saturday. A slight chance of showers and storms will mainly exist across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County where greater moisture will reside. Then into Sunday, moisture increases across the area in the onshore flow, with PoPs rising, but still remaining below normal. Rain chances will range from 20 percent across northern portions of east central Florida, up to around 30 percent south of a line from Orlando to the Cape. It will remain quite hot into the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the coast to low to mid 90s over the interior. Hazardous beach conditions will exist along the coast of east central Florida through the weekend, as building long period swells will generate rough surf and a high risk of strong and dangerous rip currents each day. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions overnight. East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable inland overnight. && .MARINE... Tonight...E/SE winds up to 10-15 knots will exist over the coastal waters into tonight, with seas ranging from 3-5 feet. Sat-Sun...A long period swell from the northeast will build and reach our coastal waters, starting on Saturday. As these build, the significant wave height will increase as well and will correlate with a period between 16 and 20 seconds. By Sunday, seas will build up to 7 feet offshore with the influence of increasing winds and swells reaching east central Florida waters. Advisories for mariners and beach goers will be necessary starting this weekend and extending into most of the following week. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ JP/WU