Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/28/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1036 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Northeast today will slide off the eastern seaboard tonight making way for a disturbance aloft and weak low pressure at the surface to bring a period of light rain to the region late tonight into Friday morning. A decaying cold front will bring another chance for showers Friday night into Saturday morning, before high pressure returns for the remainder of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1022 PM EDT Thursday...An upper level shortwave is progressing northeastward this evening, with enhanced cloudiness as the feature travels along an impressive longwave trough. Radar imagery indicates there is water overhead, but dry mid- level air appears to be impeding precipitation. The 00Z Albany sounding and RAP forecast soundings depict it quite well. Most precipitation on radar at this time is virga with Albany finally reporting a trace despite reflectivities of 45dbz. Most stations near reflectivities are reporting a trace or nothing at all. Given this trend, it may take some more time for the precipitation to reach surface across our area until this dry layer is removed. High end chance to likely pops will mainly be possible between 06Z and 10Z, and then quickly decrease from north to south, but perhaps lingering near Springfield, VT. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.25" or less with the highest amounts along southern Vermont and about 0.10" or less from Burlington northward. However, this could still be generous if dry mid-level air takes longer to saturate than anticipated. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Morning clouds tend to slowly break up during the day Friday with some more significant clearing likely around sunset through midnight, especially across eastern areas, before a decaying cold front dropping southeastward through Ontario encroaches upon the region early Saturday morning. Right now it appears the associated moisture will go more towards increased cloud cover rather than precipitation with the best mid/upper level forcing pulling north of the region. Will continue to highlight chance pops for north/northwestern areas will lower chance for precip central/southeast. Temps through the period will be close to normal with lows both nights in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and highs tomorrow will generally warm into the low/mid 60s except south/central VT where temps won`t budge out of the 50s due to lingering precip in the morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 PM EDT Thursday...Not too many changes from the previous forecast for Saturday through Saturday night. The approaching cold front will be exiting east Saturday morning, ushering in cold air in its wake. Surface high pressure builds in behind it, but upper level cyclone flow remains in place with 850mb temperatures dropping slightly throughout the day. This will allow a slight chance for some lingering showers during the daytime on Saturday, primarily across the high terrain and the Northeast Kingdom of VT. Temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s across the area, with highs in the 40s at higher elevation. Overnight lows will be seasonable for this time of year, with high level clouds advecting eastward limiting the available time to radiate out completely. Expect valley locations in the 40s and higher terrain locations (and NE Kingdom) in the low to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 332 PM EDT Thursday...For those who enjoy sunshine, you will need to look elsewhere because the extended period will likely be a disappointment. Cool and unsettled is the theme beginning Sunday night as our first of several impulses stream across the area. Overall, thinking has not changed much as we will be situated between the broad upper-level trough across the northern tier of the US and a strong upper-level ridge building in over the southern US. This will place us in a favorable (and somewhat stationary) baroclinic zone between these two airmasses. Overall model consensus through 96-hr is in good agreement with the position of the upper- level Canadian trough and subtropical ridge across the southern US. After Tuesday, model spread increases and uncertainty grows with how quickly the ridge breaks down and what the downstream response will be of the two lows nearing the US west coast. Temperatures through the period look seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s across the area, and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected for the next several hours. Advancing moisture will allow clouds to thicken and lower as the night progresses with SHRA over all TAF sites except KMSS by 06 or 07Z. MVFR ceilings generally 2500 to 3500ft agl and visibilities of 4SM to 6SM will be possible as showers spread across the region. VFR conditions will gradually return towards 12 to 13Z as showers begin to exit, except at KSLK, KRUT, and KMPV where MVFR ceilings near 3000ft agl will remain possible. All sites should be back to VFR by about 18Z. Winds will be light and variable overnight, then becoming southerly after 13Z at mostly 7kts or less. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Haynes/Lahiff SHORT TERM...LaRocca LONG TERM...LaRocca AVIATION...Haynes
previous forecast discussion and an updated aviation discussion
are below. STP
&& .SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat... Minimal updates to start the short term forecast period, following morning updates increase PoPs and QPF. The latter half of the period saw more extensive changes with the addition/expansion of PoPs for the weekend weather system. The cold front is pushing slowly through the region, and has finally brought -RA to Billings. The system it timing out nicely with HRRR at this time, which brings precip to Red Lodge between 00-02z. Snow continues to look minimal across the plains +2C by tomorrow morning , but most of precip should be finished up across the plains. Mountain snow becomes likely late this evening. Winter weather advisories for the Big Horns and the Beartooth Highway. Heaviest snow will be over the Burgess Junction area and could see 3 to 6 inches by Friday morning. By Friday afternoon clearing is expected to occur across the region, but temps will remain cool Flow aloft friday evening turns a bit more westerly which brings another disturbance across the region.Models vary a bit on track and therefore impacts of this weekend system. GFS keeping the majority of shower activity north of the CWA, meanwhile the ECMWF pulls the system across the entire CWA, bringing another good chance for precip, and possible snow to the region into Sunday. Highs around 50 degrees can be expected through the short term forecast period, with lows in the 30s. AAG .LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu... An upper low will move onto the west coast late in the day Saturday. As it moves onshore Saturday night into Sunday, it will break apart and send a few pieces of energy across our forecast area Sunday and Sunday night. This will bring another chance for showers Sunday afternoon and night, although models continue to keep the bulk of the shower activity to the north of our forecast area across north central and northeast Montana. Temperatures will be cold enough late Sunday into Sunday night for a possible rain/snow mix. Dry conditions are expected to return Monday and Tuesday as a zonal flow aloft will move over the forecast area. By Wednesday and Thursday, models continue to be inconsistent in bringing wet and colder conditions across south central Montana. The latest models keep the bulk of the precipitation across Wyoming with mild temperatures for our area. For example, the 00z EC run last night had 38 degrees for Billings next Thursday, but the 12z today has 60 degrees. However, the MEX guidance the past few runs has been fairly consistent for that day with temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s. As a result, forecaster confidence is quite low for the middle to latter part of next week. Hooley && .AVIATION... Light rain with MVFR/IFR conditions and local LIFR will affect south central Montana through the night including KBIL and KLVM. Mountains will be obscured with snow in the high country and nearby foothills. Ceilings will slowly lift after 09Z from east to west, but look for areas of fog early Friday. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 035/049 037/049 037/048 036/064 042/062 041/060 038/059 82/W 23/W 34/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 32/W LVM 033/046 034/052 033/047 033/063 039/062 038/060 035/058 72/W 22/W 54/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 32/W HDN 035/050 037/051 038/051 036/065 042/064 041/061 038/061 82/W 33/W 33/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 32/W MLS 031/051 038/051 037/047 037/062 043/064 042/061 038/059 41/B 23/W 34/W 41/B 12/W 23/W 32/W 4BQ 031/048 036/053 037/048 036/063 041/065 043/063 038/058 51/B 32/W 23/W 31/B 02/W 23/W 31/B BHK 027/048 034/050 035/045 034/060 040/063 041/061 037/057 21/U 23/W 34/W 41/B 11/B 23/W 32/W SHR 033/048 033/053 036/055 035/065 040/066 041/062 037/061 95/W 21/B 33/W 30/B 12/W 33/W 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MDT Friday for the Beartooth Highway FOR ZONE 67. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 98. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1007 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will hold a stationary front north and west of the region through this weekend. Then, high pressure will gradually push a cold front through the area from the north early next week, and this high will prevail through late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A deamplifying short wave trough moving through the TN valley will reach the central and southern Appalachians by morning, but becomes strung out as it is blocked by a strong deep-layered ridge over the SW Atlantic. The associated surface stationary front will meander from VA to northern GA through the night, with the western edges of the sub-tropical ridge across the area. There remains a few meso-scale boundaries from ongoing and earlier convection, and with still modest instability, low level moisture transport and PWat in excess of 2 inches, we still anticipate isolated to scattered showers and t-storms through the night. There is no longer any potential for severe storms to occur. The NARRE-TL is showing a medium chance of late night fog/stratus over our inland GA counties into Allendale of SC. But the SREF and HRRR probabilities are too low to justify including any mention in the forecast. However, if the convective debris clouds are able to diminish enough, due to the wet grounds there certainly could be some locations with fog closer to dawn. Elevated dew points along with plenty of clouds (at least on early) won`t allow for temps any lower than the lower or middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Unsettled conditions should prevail Friday through the weekend as the region remains between a gradually retreating Atlantic ridge of high pressure and a broad inland trough/associated surface high pressure which will slowly push a baroclinic zone/axis of enhanced moisture toward the Southeast coast. Friday, expect coverage of shower/thunderstorms similar to that of Thursday afternoon/evening, with scattered/chance PoPs in order as the deepest moisture remains displaced west/northwest of the region. However, organized thunderstorms could develop upstream and push into the region with locally greater PoPs especially Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Saturday could become the wettest day as the axis of deepest moisture settles into the region and supports numerous showers/thunderstorms. Thus, likely/high chance PoPs remain in area forecasts. Sunday, the center of high pressure will shift into the northeast Conus, and a wedge regime will develop and expand east of the Appalachians. This wedge will push a cold front toward the region. Timing of this front and the associated drying remains highly uncertain. Ongoing forecasts depict PoPs ranging from slight chance/chance north/west to high chance/likely south/southeast. However, a slower scenario will translate to greater precipitation coverage over more of our area Sunday. Another round of MLCapes as high as 2000-3000 j/kg could support a an isolated threat for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday and Sunday, greater cloud cover should translate to slightly lower temps/reduced instability. Through the period, PWATs around 2 inches will support a threat for locally heavy rainfall. Well above normal temperatures featuring highs in the upper 980s/lower 90s and lows in the lower/mid 70s will prevail Friday. Even Saturday, despite the potential for more clouds/precip, above normal highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the 70s are expected. Sunday, near-normal high temps in the lower/mid 80s should be common. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday night a cold front will be across or just south of our area. Monday high pressure over the Northeastern U.S. should slowly push this front further south, perhaps completely out of our area. Tuesday a second high forms near the Outer Banks of NC. This high is forecasted to build across the Southeast on Wednesday, bringing our area dry conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR through 00Z Saturday. There still could be a SHRA or TSRA and brief flight restrictions at either site tonight, but odds of this happening is diminishing. Only a small chance of sub-VFR conditions due to fog and/or stratus late tonight and early Friday. Finally, the potential for impacts due to scattered SHRA/TSRA Friday afternoon and evening is too far in advance to consider including at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: Convection associated with a series of fronts could bring brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Overnight: There remains decent mixing of the low level jet around the western side of sprawling Atlantic high pressure to produce S-SW winds as high as 13-18 kt, and seas as large as 3 or 4 ft. Isolated to scattered t-storms are expected, a few of which still could be strong. Thunderstorms will produce locally hazardous conditions through this weekend. Outside thunderstorms, winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday. Then, in the wake of a cold front, a wedge of high pressure will build into the region from the north/northeast early next week, and northeast winds will increase. Meanwhile, elevated swells as high as 6-7 feet originating from Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie over the central Atlantic will push into our waters by early next week. The combination of elevated winds and combined seas could prompt Small Craft Advisories next week. Rip Currents: A distant Leslie could send long period swell to our beaches later this weekend into next week. This swell could produce an enhanced risk for rip currents. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...SPR LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1010 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 ...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a cold front is sinking southward across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 A large upper level trough in the northern plains will start to move southward through tonight. A strong cold front will start to enter the northern zones shortly before sunrise and then blast through the rest of the forecast area by noon. Latest HRRR hints at the front coming in earlier than other models have shown over the previous several days and as a result I tended to go with the idea of the colder air coming in soon for temperatures and cloud arrival. It`s reasonable to expect that our high temperature for Friday will occur sometime during the early to mid morning for most of the forecast area with the exception of the far southeast. Once the front moves through stratus clouds will quickly cover the sky which will allow steady to slowly falling temperatures during the day. Drizzle looks to be the primary precip. Good isentropic lift combining with a saturated layer up through the lowest 1-2 km, a dry dendritic zone, and shear just above the saturated layer should make for an efficient drizzle environment. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Continuing the trend from the short term will be widespread areas of light drizzle to start the forecast Friday night. A warm front lifting northward through the night combining with modest MUCAPE values from soundings at around 1000 J/kg and isentropic lift could produce some rain showers or even an isolated storm or two. Drizzle, light rain, and stratus clouds should slowly move out from west to east from mid Saturday morning to mid Saturday afternoon. Sunday the newest long term models are still suggesting a warm day across the area with the potential for mid to upper 80s for much of the forecast area. It will be a good thirty degree jump from Friday. An area of low pressure will move out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas with a weaker cold front that may help in some compressional heating as well. Winds ahead of the front should also pick up and the stronger winds will be the trend into early next week. Monday through Wednesday will be warm, dry, and windy in the afternoon as we`ll be under an upper level ridge. Thursday will be the next area of monitoring as an upper level low will be slowly moving from California into the desert southwest. GFS has it moving quicker while the Euro hangs it up in California for the time being. No real confidence in what will happen but this would be the type of pattern if it comes to fruition for good chances of rain and even some storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 542 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 VFR conditions will prevail overnight with winds from the south to southeast at less than 10 knots. A cold front will then move through the area around sunrise shifting winds to the northeast and increasing to around 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots into the early afternoon. A stratus deck will also develop behind this front creating MVFR to IFR ceilings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 51 56 46 76 / 0 30 40 20 GCK 48 51 44 77 / 0 30 40 10 EHA 51 54 44 83 / 0 30 40 0 LBL 52 58 45 82 / 0 30 30 10 HYS 47 53 44 69 / 0 30 40 30 P28 54 67 50 75 / 0 30 50 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJohnson SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
824 PM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .DISCUSSION... Evening Update... Temperatures are starting to rapidly drop as skies clear out from north to south. The latest RAP guidance has the best handle on this and takes temperatures into the middle 20s across a widespread area tonight, with even some upper teens in the typically colder spots near the Canadian border. Have therefore gone ahead and lowered temperatures a few degrees area wide tonight. Most of the precipitation is already out of the area and clear skies will continue to push in from the north tonight. -Mottice Previous discussion... Cold front from southern Saskatchewan will continue to push the current area of rain further southward through the region this evening and tonight. Accumulations of 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch of rain are expected through western and southern portions of our CWA. As these chances for rain diminish overnight tonight, the colder air from the north may just barely change the rain over to snow for a few locations - perhaps the higher elevations - before the precipitation is all over early Friday morning over central and southern Montana. Over the next several days, the colder Canadian air will remain in control over our area, while the warmer air from the south continues to try and push north toward our area, but to no great avail. Model agreement is great tonight, then fairly good through this weekend, then not so good beginning next week. The next storm system coming into our region after tonight will be from the west and southwest on Sunday, due to some short wave low trough energy from the Canadian Rockies. Just enough cold air will be in place early Sunday and late Sunday to allow some of that rain to change over snow. For early Sunday through early Monday, current thought is that a trace up to half an inch of snow will be possible for our northern tier zones and the higher elevations of Garfield County, while around an inch of snow will be possible for Zortman and the Little Rocky Mountains. Beyond Monday, forecast confidence diminishes greatly regarding how the approaching western low pressure trough interacts with the remnants of tropical storm Rosa. Over the last few days deterministic model data for precipitation has been highly variable. BMickelson && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites. Clear skies will continue to move in from the north tonight with generally light and variable winds expected through the forecast period. -Mottice && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
652 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Aloft: RAP dynamic tropopause analyses and aircraft obs revealed NW flow over the Cntrl Plns. The mean trof axis was over the mid MS Vly and extended SW across TX. A Rex Block was over the E Pac. A shortwave trof was over AB/SA and it will rotate thru the base of the broad longwave trof over the Nrn Plns tonight and into the GtLks tomorrow. As this trof misses to the N...winds will back from NW to W tomorrow. Surface: Low pres was over Ontario. Its associated cold front was over the Sandhills and dropping S. This front will cross the CWA tonight with high pres over SW Canada building in. This high will rapidly translate SE and be over Neb by midday tomorrow. Rest of this afternoon: Very nice most locations. Radar and sfc obs indicate the front is just N of Phillipsburg-Red Cloud-Geneva at 1940Z. Highs will be in the 70s...except N of Hwy 92 where thick altocu will hold temps in the mid-upr 60s. Tonight: Becoming cldy from N-S. Becoming windy by midnight as well as the surging high tightens the pres grad. Could see a little light drzl N of I-80. Temps a touch cooler than normal. Sat: M/cldy for much of the day with the risk of a little drzl or light rain expanding and then gradually diminishing from N-S. Current indications are that the stratus will thin with breaks developing as it morphs into stratocu in the afternoon...primarily over S-cntrl Neb. Fcst confidence is lower than normal with temps and cld cover. As long as stratus breaks up...our temp fcst should be ok. But for areas that might remain OVC all day...we may not be chilly enough. Bottom line...a chilly day. Windy in the AM...but diminishing winds in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Aloft: Spaghetti plots of the last 2 runs of the EC/GFS/GFS-X/ GEM/UKMET are fcstg the E Pac Rex Block to fall apart Sat. The cut-off low portion of the block will move onshore into the Pac NW and diminish into a weak trof. As this occurs...a new longwave trof will develop over the E Pac. This will induce height rises over the Ern USA as a large subtropical high forming over the SE USA. This config will result in low-amplitude WSW flow over the Cntrl Plns thru Tue. Wed-Thu it appears the flow will become split as the E Pac low is fcst to move into the Desert SW and becomes cut-off. Fairly zonal flow along the US-Can border could begin amplifying due to a deep low over the Aleutians. That will induce ridge formation over Wrn Canada and a trof over the Nrn Plns. After Tue...confidence decreases because the 00Z EC ensemble mean has the ridge still over the E Pac. So this scenario mentioned for Wed-Thu is not a lock. Surface: The high that will be over Neb Fri will head E of the rgn Sat-Sun. Meanwhile...the front that moves thru today will begin lifting back N as a warm front as a lee low forms over CO. The front is fcst to lift back into Nrn KS Sun. The next Canadian cold front will drop thru the CWA and merge with the warm front ...forcing it back to the S a bit. It is then fcst to become stationary from SW-NE across KS into Mon. What is left of this front is fcst to lift back N across the entire CWA Tue until the next Canadian cold front arrives Wed. Another weak little low is fcst to slide down the lee side of the Rckys Thu. Temps: As the high departs Fri night...increasing return flow should advect low stratus back into the CWA. There is some potential for patchy frost N of Neb Hwy 92 after midnight. These areas will probably be the last to see the stratus move in. Winds will be light. Due to uncertainty with the clds...left frost out of the fcst for now...but that could change with future fcsts. There is significant bust potential Sat and Sun based on where the stratus locks in...and how far N the front gets. Some areas we may be too warm. Bottom line is much cooler than normal Sat-Sun where it remains cldy. Still a little cool Mon...warmer than normal Tue in the warm sector...and even post-frontal Wed. Then back to near normal Thu. Rain: Nothing of significance. There could be a little drzl or light rain around Sat-Sun and possibly lingers into Mon...but most places won`t measure .01". Possibly a few light shwrs Tue night with the next frontal passage...but overall we cont in a very dry pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 Quiet conditions are expected this evening, before a better push of the cold front brings in a reinforcing shot of northerly winds and more cloud cover. Models continue to show the potential for MVFR ceilings to develop later tonight and into tomorrow, and can`t rule out some showers, so do have a VCSH mention going at both sites. Gusty northerly winds also remain a possibility starting later tonight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...ADP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
759 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .UPDATE... 759 PM CDT While no changes to tonight`s forecast, did increase chances for rain (mainly light) in northern locations tomorrow, namely late morning through mid-afternoon. A cool season look to upstream satellite imagery this evening, with a broad longwave trough across much of Canada digging east- southeast into the northern U.S. The associated surface cold front is draped across northwest Wisconsin through the central Plains and still is on course to move south through the area on Friday. Likely to be a period of gusty winds immediately behind the front for a few hours, probably gusting to 20 maybe even briefly 25 mph. Upper air analysis from this evening`s weather balloon launches shows the tight mid-level thermal gradient developing across the Plains. A 125 kt upper level jet sampled over the Upper Rockies will increase the mid-level frontogenesis further eastward over the northern CWA Friday morning peaking in the early to mid afternoon. There looks to be enough forcing on model solutions to overcome the immediate low-level dry air, with a stretch of rain expanding eastward over some of the area north of I-80. The challenge is where exactly and there will likely be a sharp gradient on the south and possibly the north too. It can be easy to key in on the NAM or HRRR which likely have a good forecast "mode" of evolution, but the location when driven by f-gen is often very difficult to pin down. So have increased PoPs for north of I-80 for now, and that includes some likely mention in parts of north central Illinois. Rainfall amounts still look light. The forecast temperature spread over the CWA on Friday still looks good, although temperatures could fall late morning into the afternoon over northern locations during the immediate post frontal gusty winds and especially if it is raining. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 253 PM CDT Through Friday... Main concern for the short term forecast period will be increasing cloud cover and an increasing chance for some light showers as a cold front pushes south across the region. For the remainder of the afternoon and tonight, persistent cloud cover is limiting temperatures into the lower to middle 60s across the sern portions of the CWA. Across the remainder of the area, ample sunshine will allow temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Latest satellite imagery shows cloud cover beginning to move into far nern IL as a shortwave and sfc cold front push south through the Upper Mississippi Valley. Expect that cloud cover should increase through the night with winds shifting from swly to nwly following the frontal passage. By daybreak, the front should have pushed through the Rockford area and possibly reach the Chicago Metro area. Weak forcing and only modest low level moisture will be a limiting factor with respect to pcpn chances, but should be adequate to at least carry slight chance PoPs for the far nwrn portions of the CWA for the early morning hours. As the front continues to push south and east through the day, some of the guidance is suggesting a slight increase in moisture pooling arnd the boundary coincident with the diurnal warming. So, will carry chance PoPs, for more sct shra invof the front, though limited moisture should keep any wetting pcpn relatively light. With the front already moving into the nwrn portions of the CWA by daybreak and steadily pushing south and east through the day, the greatest diurnal warming will be over the sern portions of the CWA, where temps should be able to reach into the middle 60s. Over the nwrn locations, temperatures should be limited to the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM... 253 PM CDT Friday night through Thursday... For the longer term forecast period, the guidance remains relatively consistent in a chilly start to the weekend. A cool, dry airmass will build in behind the cold front. Clearing skies, light winds should allow for strong radiative cooling. With dewpoints expected to drop into the lower 30s by Saturday morning, especially for locations west of the Fox Valley, there will be a chance that temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 30s, with patchy frost likely for areas where temperatures drop into the middle 30s. Locations south of I-80 are expected to remain a little warmer, with lows only in the upper 30s to lower 40s and any frost is less likely. As the high moves off to the east through the day on Saturday, low level flow will trend to more sly, with a warm front lifting north through the region. The longer range guidance is coming into better agreement on the idea that the northward extent of the front will be limited by strong high pressure building across the Northern Plains and to the Upper Great Lakes. The warm front should stall out invof the IL/WI border from Sunday night into early next week. this will keep a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms, across much of the area until through at least mid- week until the front finally gets pushed south by the next high. Through the period, a ridge of high pressure across the sern CONUS will help limit any significant moisture transport into the area, so PoPs and potential QPF should be relatively low. && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... The main concern is with a period of rain on Friday that could knock down ceilings and visibility into the MVFR range. Conditions will be quiet and VFR through the night with CIGs gradually lowering. A cold front will move across the terminals during the morning, shifting winds to northwest. It`s possible that there could be a period of near due north winds during the mid to late morning, with speeds around 10 kt if it occurs. After the northwest to possibly north winds behind the cold front, direction will settle into a 290-310 direction along with gusts in the 15-20 kt range, possibly a bit higher at GYY. Speeds will then quickly diminish with sunset as high pressure overspreads the region. Regarding rain trends on Friday, the forcing mechanism for the precipitation suggests that the area of rain will be rather narrow with likely a sharp cut-off on the southern end of it. It`s possible this cut-off could be right over the Chicago area. There`s a bit of uncertainty on timing, though a late AM start time appears reasonable at RFD and early PM for Chicago area airports. Have highest confidence in prevailing -RA at RFD, with TEMPO conditions maintained at ORD/MDW and DPA and VCSH mention at GYY. CIGs outside of rain should be VFR and possibly even during it, so confidence is only medium in MVFR CIGs where prevailing or TEMPO -RA is mentioned. VSBY may drop to MVFR at times during the rain. Conditions will quickly improve once the precip ends. Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
803 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 419 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge along the west coast and a broad trough from Hudson Bay into the central CONUS resulting in cyclonic westerly flow through the Upper Mississippi Valley and nrn Great Lakes. Rain associated with a shortwave trough and WAA/isentropic lift was exiting eastern Upper Michigan. Another area of showers through northeast MN and wrn Lake Superior with 700-300 qvector conv ahead of a stronger shrtwv was advancing into wrn Upper Michigan. At the surface, a cold front extended into nw WI from low pressure near CYQT. Tonight, expect showers to again spread through west into central Upper Michigan early this evening, per radar/satellite trends. Some isolated thunder may be possible early this evening with shallow convection given the steep low/mid level lapse rates. However, the coverage should diminish with the loss of daytime heating and as the stronger forcing lifts to the northeast. Sct -shra will then increase over the west late as winds veer to the nnw behind the cold front and instability increases (850/700 mb temps drop to 1C/-11C). Friday, another weak shrtwv moving through the area along with the cold air in place with the wnw flow will support sct shra that will become a lake effect and diurnal shower hybrid during the afternoon that will spread through the rest of west and central Upper Michigan. Highs will remain well below normal with readings into the upper 40s west to lower to mid 50s east and south. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 ...Cool and unsettled weather pattern continues into next week... Weak shortwave/q-vector convergence with deeper moisture along with a reinforcing cold front moves early Fri evening. Despite H85 temps as low as -6c (resulting in delta t/s 16-18c) expect limited coverage to lake effect showers behind the front into later Fri night given strong subsidence/drying behind the shortwave and well mixed layer blo cloud base of 3-5kft. Given wetbulb zero heights falling blo 1000 ft, possible there could be few snow flakes mix in with rain showers if they are occurring. Agree with previous shift that probably will end up with little/no pcpn closer to the shore and better coverage well into the interior w where upsloping aids low-level moistening. Also for Fri night, if clouds scatter out sufficiently in the interior west and central, frost/freeze conditions could occur. Soundings indicate expansion of narrow layer of cu/stratocu on Sat farther inland. Will be getting pretty dry otherwise so don`t expect much for precip, except maybe on the Keweenaw/north central in the morning hours. High pressure ridge more overhead on Sat night but there will already be increasing high clouds at that point. Think that will help interior areas avoid widespread frost. Should note that we are still issuing seasonal frost/freeze headlines through morning of Oct 1 so we could see some headlines this weekend before stopping for the season. Low-level warm air advection pattern takes hold Sun AM and should quickly see lowering clouds. Shortwave and associated q- vector convergence working across Sun PM could also help to bring some showers, but due to lingering high pressure over Manitoba and Ontario, showers may tend to dry out while trying to expand across Upper Michigan. Hints that better chances for rain will set up over WI into southern Upper Michigan closer to sfc front. Looks like north of that sfc front and more so where tighter H85 temp gradient/right entrance jet/mid level fgen forcing is located will be main focus for multiple periods of moderate to heavy rain Sun night through Mon night. Also could be some embedded t-storms into far scntrl Upper Michigan on northern edge of elevated MUCAPE. Not clear yet how far north that focused area of rain will extend into Upper Michigan but certainly is some potential that at least south and east sections would get clipped by heavier rain. CPC continues to highlight much of the Upper Great Lakes for the possibility of heavy rain late Sun into early next week. Big differences in models/ensembles for middle of next week, though the latest ECMWF came more into line with GFS and GEM. Could see yet another period of moderate to heavy rain midweek or main focus may stay over northern Plains. Some of this deep moisture, increasing PWATS over 2 inches, may very well be from remnants of what is currently Hurricane Rosa lurking to the south of the Baja California peninsula. Given the differences in the models and ensembles, made no changes to consensus for days 6-7. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 736 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 Unfortunately, predictability on a possibility of a reduction in ceilings/visbys is rather low for this TAF period as hit-and-miss showers continue to march across Upper Michigan tonight through tomorrow. That said, the feature to watch will be the time period when showers are most likely to develop and directly impact the terminals, which has been denoted in the appropriate TEMPO groups. A band of showers is currently traversing across the western into central section of the Upper Peninsula, with KSAW likely going to be directly impacted within the next couple of hours. The next round should occur overnight, with vicinity activity persisting through much of the TAF period. SW to W winds currently will become more W to WNW on Friday. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 419 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 Southwest winds to 25 knots will veer northwest tonight and persist at 15-25 knots through Friday. Another trough moving through the area Friday night will bring an increase in westerly winds to 30 knots that will again veer to the northwest and linger into Saturday afternoon. Winds will then remain below 25 knots through Monday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...lg MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move along a stalled front to the south, passing over or just south of New York City and Long Island late tonight into Friday, then passing to the east Friday night. High pressure will build from the west over the weekend and then pass offshore early next week. Another cold front will approach during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Light rain is moving in, with an area of moderate to heavier rain expected after midnight from west to east. After analysis of latest higher resolution models, and probabilistic qpf forecasts, will maintain the flash flood watch for those locations. Did contemplate expanding the watch to include Suffolk County and southern New London, but too many possible solutions point to where the watch currently is in effect. Of note, latest HRRR run seems to be suppressed to the south with the low track, and thus heavier rain moves across all of LI. Assuming a low track right along the south shore of LI, still feel heaviest rain remains NW of the low. Also, areal and small stream headwater FFG in areas hard hit on Tuesday are both quite low. Lows tonight will be in the 50s inland, and lower 60s in NYC and along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Guidance had signaled potential for a quick 1-2 inches of rain late tonight into Fri morning. Heaviest rain will be driven by strong H8-9 WAA and elevated instability, acting on a very moist air mass with PW increasing to over 2 inches. With that instability in place, a few tstms are also possible. The 12-km NAM also shows potential for training of cells as the low passes by. There is also potential for some heavier rain well NW of NYC (Orange/Putnam) per combo of mid level frontogenesis and/or orographic lift, but not enough to make for a flash flood concern. Rain ends Friday afternoon from west to east as the low pulls away. Highs on Friday may not reach 60 across interior southern CT, with lower/mid 60s expected elsewhere, per model/MOS blend. Lows Fri night will range from around 50 inland, to the upper 50s in NYC. There will be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A strong upper ridge over the SE US and upper low over northern Canada will result in zonal flow over most of the northern US this weekend. As the upper level ridge strengthens heights over the NE will rise in response. The forecast becomes uncertain during the middle of next week as the remnants of Rosa in the eastern Pacific move across Baja and eventually becomes picked up into the westerlies and races across the country. At the sfc, high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes over the weekend and slides offshore early next week. Dry with near to above normal temperatures are expected this weekend. The high slides offshore early next week, with dry and warm weather continuing on Mon. The 12z EC has trended towards the GFS for the middle of the week with a frontal boundary slowly dropping southward through New England. The remnant energy of Rosa currently appears to pass well to the north, but some of her moisture may impact the local area as the frontal boundary moves through. It is too early to know whether heavy rain will be possible at this time, but needs to be monitored over the coming days. Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure across the northeast retreats overnight as a wave of low pressure developing across the Ohio Valley, along a frontal boundary, deepens and track to the northeast. The low is expected to pass south or along the south shore of Long Island late overnight and into Friday morning. High pressure builds in behind the low Friday afternoon. Light rain was spreading into the region and conditions were remaining VFR. However, conditions will gradually lower to MVFR and then IFR. Rain will be heavy at times from around 08Z to 13Z. A rumble of thunder is also possible at that time, mainly at the NYC terminals and across Long Island. However, instability is marginal and with the low probability of convection did not include in the forecast. Conditions will improve to VFR at the western terminals late Friday afternoon. A east, to east/southeast flow is expected overnight, with winds generally under 10 KT. Winds will back to NE and then N after 12Z, and eventually to NW as the low passes to the east. Winds will quickly diminish Friday afternoon as high pressure builds in. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday night-Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA for the ocean has been extended into Fri morning. Ocean seas will remain in the 5-6 ft range tonight as E flow increases overnight, and a few gusts up to 25 kt are possible Fri morning just ahead of the sfc low as it passes through. There is a chance that 5-ft seas could linger on the outer ocean waters E of Moriches Inlet into Fri afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Uncertainty remains on the exact placement of bands of heavier rainfall of up to 2 inches, most of it falling within a 1-2 hour time frame, and 1-3 hr areal/small stream FFG within the watch area is under or within that range, so previously issued flash flood watches remain in effect. There is a chance they could be expanded farther east into Suffolk on Long Island per overnight radar trends. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... With increasing easterly flow, some minor coastal flooding will be possible across mainly the South Shore Bays and Western Long Island Sound shorelines along Southwest Connecticut for Friday morning/afternoon high tide cycles. However, winds should shift around to the north right before high tide, so extent of minor coastal flooding remains in question. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Friday through Friday morning for CTZ005>011. NY...Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Friday through Friday morning for NYZ069>075-176>179. NJ...Flash Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Friday through Friday morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/24 NEAR TERM...Goodman/PW SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...19 MARINE...Goodman/24/PW HYDROLOGY...Goodman/24 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front has stalled across central NC this evening with ongoing convection across the area. The front will resume a slow southeastward trek Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1030 PM Thursday... Main shortwave is currently across the western North Carolina this evening with surface low pressure starting to form. A broken line is also moving east across central North Carolina while a stalled surface boundary remains across the Triad (clearly seen on the 28.00 KGSO sounding). The general idea is for the broken line to slowly weaken as it heads east away from the main support of the shortwave. Simultaneously, the surface low pressure will head northeast helping to drag the stalled boundary north as well. As the shortwave heads northeast there will be a brief period of subsidence behind the wave allowing for a break in the precipitation Friday morning (after the broken line falls apart). Friday afternoon the surface front will slowly drop back to the south. Prev Discussion-> Convective activity beginning to increase in the southwest Piedmont and and storms are exhibiting good mid- level rotation at this time indicative of the better sheared environment in that area. Currently about 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE are available to work with and about 25 kts of bulk shear. In the lowest level the 0-1 km shear is about 15 kts at this time with 0-1 km helicity values of 50-100 m2/s2. While this is a decent environment for rotating storms, those low level environment numbers are not particularly impressive and it is hard to tell if this rotation will translate to the surface or remain generally aloft. In general the afternoon is shaping up to have more of the favored instability, but the best shear values remain well to the northwest of the forecast area. These are expected to arrive later, but by that time the instability could be lacking. Therefore, it appears there is only a small window for the two to phase together around 00z in the Triad. At the surface, the cold front remains north of the forecast area and this could remain the case for the duration of the afternoon and evening. Later this afternoon a shortwave is expected to track northeastward along or just ahead of the front and could provide some extra forcing for ascent. Currently this feature appears to be in western GA and will not arrive until after sunset. As a result severe activity is expected to remain isolated to scattered through the evening hours and focused north and west of US 1. With the front staying to the north, lows this evening will remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Thursday... By Friday morning the front will still be lingering north of the area but cloudy skies are expected to prevail through the day which could keep temperatures down in the north but southern areas are likely to break out in the afternoon causing temperatures to climb once again into the mid to upper 80s. As the front sags slowly southward, the US 64 corridor is likely to become convectively active by afternoon. That being said, with less instability and shear to work with, severe weather is not as likely as today and therefore SPC has general thunder for the area. By Friday evening this activity will push south and east as continental high pressure moves in from the northwest. This may lead to a bit of an airmass change across the northwest Piedmont by early Saturday morning with lows in the low 60s but areas in the southeast still only bottoming out near 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday... Saturday and Saturday night: Based on recent trends, would not be surprise if the cold frontal passage Friday night/Saturday morning is a bit slower than what models have been advertising. Given that reasoning, could see some lingering shower activity over the Sandhills and coastal plain counties Saturday morning, and possibly even some isolated convective re-development during the afternoon, in proximity to the deeper moisture axis and weak/moderate instability gradient. The delay in more notable sfc pressure rises from the north until Saturday evening will result in highs Saturday very similar to what we see on Friday, although it should start to feel less humid across the NW Piedmont with the arrival of lower dewpoints into the region. Weak CAA overnight will bring slightly cooler and drier air into the area Saturday night. Lows 60 to 65, with a few upper 50s possible in the typically cooler spots across the northern Piedmont. Sunday through Thursday: Subtropical ridge anchored across the southeastern states will dominate through much of the upcoming week, likely resulting in a prolonged period of mostly dry conditions. The EC hints at some weak shortwave disturbances circumventing the western/northwestern periphery of the upper ridge, reasonably close enough to possibly result in a few showers across the western and northern portions of the piedmont by mid to late week. However, until this becomes more evident, with leave forecast dry for now. The near normal temperatures Sunday and Monday, courtesy of surface high pressure nosing down the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and resultant NELY low-level flow will quickly moderate, allowing temperatures to climb back into the lower to mid 80s, a good 5 to 8 degrees above climatology, by mid to late week. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 800 PM Thursday... Convection is currently ongoing at KRDU/ KFAY and KRWI with widespread thunder. Also of note is how the stalled front has crept south this evening and gone through KGSO/ KINT. Behind the front a IFR and LIFR deck has moved in with winds turning from the northeast. As the batch of convection moves east this evening a secondary round of showers and thunderstorms can be seen right behind in association with the primary shortwave. The general thinking is for this broken line to continue to push northeast and to only slowly weaken. Latest runs of the RAP still have ample instability later this evening with plentiful shear. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP have the line segment arriving for the western terminals (KINT and KGSO) around 11 PM, but given current motion and speed, an arrival between 930 and 11 PM looks more likely. Early this morning as the segment heads east it will begin to weaken as it becomes more removed from the primary lift. As the surface low and affiliated upper level lift moves away a brief break in the precipitation looks likely. The other main concern Friday morning will be the chance of low stratus in the morning hours. Latest GFS and NAM forecast soundings would indicate this is likely while the HRRR and SREF aren`t as bullish. Overall the highest confidence for low cigs looks towards KGSO and KINT or closer to the front. During the day Friday the cold front will slowly push southeast with drier air taking its time making it into the area. As of now the chance of showers and thunderstorms looks possible late Friday, but confidence remains to low to mention this far out. Outlook: The front will linger over central NC presenting multiple opportunities for adverse aviation conditions through Saturday before the bulk of the activity will shift off to the southeast. A likely return to VFR conditions for Sunday and into early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/WSS NEAR TERM...Haines/Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Haines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
658 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours. The latest HRRR hints at some MVFR stratus developing along the I-10 corridor in the early morning hours. Confidence in this occurring is low however given the dry airmass in place. Otherwise, expect winds out of the south at 5-10 knots on Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Friday) Low clouds this morning have eroded to leave mostly sunny and cooler conditions across West Central Texas this afternoon. Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 70s as of mid afternoon. Surface high pressure shifting across the area as well, so winds have started to swing back to the south across the western Big Country. This trend will continue into tonight with south winds returning to most areas by morning. Temperatures may not be quite as cool as this morning, but still expect readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Warmer on Friday as south winds increase, with highs climbing back into the mid 80s. LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) During the weekend and first part of next week, our area will be on the western periphery of an upper level high, centered over the southeastern CONUS. Seasonably warm and somewhat humid conditions are expected for our area, with south-southeast winds. Carrying low PoPs Saturday through Tuesday across the area generally southeast of an Ozona to Brownwood line, for the possibility of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The main possibility would be in the afternoon and evening hours. The aforementioned upper high is progged to expand farther west into Texas during the middle of next week. Increased subsidence should keep rain chances minimal for our area Wednesday and Thursday. Little change in temperatures is expected. Just beyond the end of this forecast (next Friday), the 12Z GFS indicates a possibility for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms, with the approach of an upper low and trough from the southwestern states, and the approach of a cold front from the north. The ECMWF keeps it dry with the upper high centered closer to our area during that time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 59 86 63 85 / 0 0 5 10 San Angelo 59 87 63 86 / 0 5 5 10 Junction 61 83 65 85 / 0 10 10 30 Brownwood 59 85 63 83 / 0 0 5 10 Sweetwater 61 87 64 84 / 0 0 5 10 Ozona 60 85 63 84 / 0 5 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42