Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/23/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1057 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over Lower Michigan and extending west over Wisconsin. Mostly clear skies are prevailing over most of north- central and northeast WI with only spotty cu forming, though a more widespread cu field may rotate north from southeast WI into east-central WI later on this afternoon. Meanwhile to the north, a cold front extends from North Dakota to far northern Lake Superior. Ample low clouds and spotty showers are present along the front. As this front moves south and high pressure exits to the east, cloud trends and temps are the main forecast concerns. Tonight...High pressure will slide east to the eastern Great Lakes while a Canadian cold front sags into the Upper Peninsula. Mid- clouds will likely pass over northern WI ahead of the front, while locations over central and east-central WI should largely enjoy a mostly clear evening. As the front draws closer, models are aggressive pushing in a low stratus deck into far northern WI late. Backed off a little on cloud trends, since think models are too aggressive based off the latest satellite imagery. As a result, dropped temps a little, especially in some of the cold spots over central WI, where some patchy fog is possible late. But dont think temps will get cold enough for frost. Sunday...The front will effectively stall over the Upper Peninsula and far northern WI. Brought mostly cloudy skies south of Rhinelander during the morning, but should see the stratus evolve into a cu field in the afternoon, as winds back around to the south at 850mb. Wouldnt be surprised to see a few sprinkles or spits near the U.P. border during the morning. With partly cloudy skies over central and east-central WI, temps will range from the upper 50s in the far north to the upper 60s in the south. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 Dry weather will continue through Monday, with weak ridging at the surface and aloft. A cold front will move through the area Late Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. On Monday night, pops will be highest in the northwest (near the cold front) and far southeast (WAA and a surge of tropical moisture, with PWATs around 1.5 inches). On Tuesday, the main focus should be over the southeast half of the forecast area, where the frontal passage will still be occurring. Instability is progged to be fairly weak during this event, with the greatest instability (CAPE 500-750 j/kg) occurring in the Fox Valley region midday Tuesday. A mostly dry period is anticipated during the middle of the week as the forecast area remains on the northern periphery of a strong high pressure system. Another cold front is forecast to arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday, along with the next chance of showers. This system will have even less instability to work with than the previous, so will only mention a small chance of storms over north central WI Thursday afternoon. High pressure should bring another mainly dry period for the end of the work week, but models disagree on the arrival time of precipitation for the weekend. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 VFR conditions are likely through Sunday, as high pressure moves slowly east. Patchy ground fog is possible late tonight across mainly the western TAF sites. There will be some high to mid clouds over the northern portions of the area which will help to limit cloud cover. Any fog would quickly dissipate early Sunday morning if it does form. Additionally, some MVFR clouds may approach RHI late tonight into Sunday morning; however, these should steadily lift into the day Sunday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Cooley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
850 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 850 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 High surface pressure will provide quiet weather and light winds the rest of the overnight. The only clouds of note will be cirrus clouds streaming across southeast Illinois, on the northern edge of a moisture plume in the southern stream jet. No precipitation is expected in our forecast area, with any light rain showers remaining closer to the Ohio River Valley. Based on minimum dewpoints during peak heating this afternoon, low temps tonight look on track to drop into the mid to upper 40s in our northern counties, with low to mid 50s S of I-70. Only minor updates were needed this evening. The latest forecast info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 A widespread area of rain showers along and southeast of Robinson to Flora line at mid afternoon is starting to diminish a bit past few hours, but will continue to affect far southeast IL thru much of tonight. Shield of mid/high clouds west along and se of a Rantoul to Taylorville line and has been slowly pressing se. The rain showers are due to overrunning along a frontal boundary extending from south central TN into northern LA to weak 1011 mb low pressure in northeast TX. Meanwhile 1026 mb high pressure over the central Great Lakes was bringing in drier and cooler air into central IL today on ENE winds of 5-15 mph. Some light rain showers should mainly be southeast of Lawrence county on Sunday with skies becoming partly sunny in southeast IL. Lows overnight in the mid to upper 40s in central IL and 50-55F in southeast IL, mildest along and south of highway 50 where clouds continue. Temps warm closer to normal on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 The 12Z forecast models push moisture nw into southeast IL by overnight Sunday night with more overrunning along frontal boundary to out south. Have just slight chance of rain showers in far southeast IL Sunday evening, then better push of moisture nw overnight Sunday night with isolated showers up to I-72 and good chance of showers in southeast IL. Lows Sunday night in the mid 50s northern CWA and lower 60s in southeast IL. Chance of rain showers mainly southeast of the IL river on Monday with isolated thunderstorms se of I-55 Monday afternoon. Models are trending slower with a cold front moving into the upper Midwest Monday afternoon and Monday night and to keeps its convection chances nw of the IL river valley. Have just a slight chance of convection nw CWA Monday night. SPC Day3 outlook has marginal risk of severe storms nw of IL Monday night. Highs Monday similar to Sunday in the mid to upper 70s. Milder lows Monday night in the lower 60s northern CWA and upper 60s in southeast IL. The cold front to push se toward the IL river valley late Tue afternoon and thru rest of CWA during Tue night. Have 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms Tue and Tue evening, then diminishing chances of showers from nw to se overnight Tue night behind cold front. SPC Day4 outlook for Tue has 15% risk of severe storms in far southeast IL for Tue afternoon/evening along with risk of heavy rains southeast of I-70. Highs Tue in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dry, cooler and less humid air arrives for Wed and Thu across CWA as high pressure settles toward IL by Wed night. Highs Wed in the upper 60s and lower 70s, coolest nw of I-55. Lows Wed night in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with mid 40s by Galesburg. Highs Thu mostly in the lower 70s as clouds increase from the nw during Thu afternoon. An upper level trof digging into the Midwest Thu/Thu night to keep best chances of showers north of central IL, though forecast builder carried isolated light rain showers over IL river valley Thu evening. Ecmwf model keeps rain showers south of Ohio river and north of IL on Thu and Thu night, and models have been trending drier. 1025 mb high pressure settling into IA/IL on Friday to bring a fairly nice day with highs in the lower 70s, and some upper 60s north of I-74. A disturbance tracking eastward over IA, northern MO and into central/northern IL during Friday night into Sat morning could bring chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to areas north of I-70. Highs Sat in the mid to upper 70s with coolest readings north of I-74. Models have trended warmer next weekend as upper level ridge builds further north across the southern states and upper level trof/low near the Pacific Coast next Sunday. Southeast IL looks drier and warm next weekend with better chances of showers and possible thunderstorms over northern/nw IL including northern CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL terminal sites through 7 pm tomorrow. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain established across central IL, providing minimal cloud cover and light E-NE winds. Sustained wind speeds should remain less than 10 kt. The GFS and NAMnest are hinting at some MVFR or IFR fog late tonight, but the NAM, HRRR, and RAP have no fog at all. Therefore, we are siding toward no fog of consequence with this TAF issuance. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
936 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... The cold front is now stalling from the ArkLaTex through the ArkLaMiss Delta and northeastward across the Mid South. Anafrontal stratiform light rain is ongoing across much of Arkansas, NW Louisiana, and parts of NW Mississippi. Ahead of the front, convection remains active across the Golden Triangle. Elsewhere, most precip has now tapered off and there are a few breaks in the clouds as well. Through the overnight, storms over the northeastern part of the forecast area will continue lifting northeastward and out of the area. Light showers, and perhaps an isolated storm, will remain possible across the Delta closer to the front. Over the southeastern half of the area, a lull is expected with the loss of daytime instability and as the best mid/upper level forcing remains north and west of the area. Some minor tweaks were made to forecast POP/Wx to account for current radar trends, but otherwise no significant changes were made to the forecast. /DL/ Prior discussion below: Tonight through Sunday night: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed the circulation around a low in the northern Gulf and a weak shortwave over northeast Texas. The low in the Gulf was helping some drier air aloft spill over into east Mississippi from Alabama while the shortwave over Texas was aiding convection along a stalled front just northwest of our CWA. This will lead to a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms continuing into the evening over the western half of our CWA. The convection will see a distinct diurnal trend over much of our CWA this evening but due to the proximity of the stalled boundary and the approaching weak shortwave, convection in our northwest will likely continue through Sunday. Mid afternoon surface analysis had an 1011mb low over northeast Texas with the old stalled front meandering across the Arkansas/Louisiana state line and then back across northwest Mississippi. The surface low will linger over Texas into Monday while gradually weakening while the shortwave over Texas tracks northeast across our delta region Sunday. Wl still have a very moist airmass in place with PWATs greater than two inches Sunday and the combination of daytime heating and the shortwave will lead to the greatest coverage of storms across the northwest half of the CWA again. The rain and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon high temperatures to near 80F while highs over east Mississippi will top out near 90F again. Monday through Friday: Come Monday wl still have our moist airmass with PWATs in excess of two inches and a deep but somewhat light southerly-southwesterly flow. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the whole CWA and mainly diurnally driven convection. Scattered to numerous coverage of storms is expected both Monday and Tuesday. Models appear to be in a little better agreement this afternoon that upper level troughing will deepen over the central CONUS and support a cold front dropping into our CWA Wednesday. Models do differ on timing and how far south the cold front will push through our CWA with the Canadian blowing the front south our CWA by Thursday morning. Consensus is slower and wetter for our CWA until Friday. Thus, the chance for rain will increase Wednesday ahead of the front and continue into Thursday before drier air and surface high pressure move into our CWA from the north. /22/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered SHRA/TSRA across the area continue to pose the potential for brief gusty winds and categorical reductions. The main concern for this activity through the night will be west of the JAN/GTR area including the ArkLaMiss Delta. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will likely persist throughout much of the TAF period at GLH and spread into the GWO area by Sun morning, with occasional reductions to IFR possible as a front remains in the area. Outside of GLH/GWO, VFR conditions will prevail this evening, with brief reductions to MVFR possible around daybreak Sunday. After limited shower activity during the morning hours, redevelopment of SHRA/TSRA is expected in the afternoon hours with the greatest potential for being impacted again at sites over the northwest half of the area. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 88 71 87 / 17 43 34 54 Meridian 70 91 71 88 / 13 19 24 52 Vicksburg 71 87 72 88 / 19 71 54 58 Hattiesburg 71 91 71 89 / 10 51 22 61 Natchez 70 87 72 86 / 16 61 40 65 Greenville 68 81 70 85 / 60 63 44 61 Greenwood 72 85 71 85 / 51 73 61 61 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
946 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .DISCUSSION... Wx map shows stationary frontal trough Central and Northeast Texas through the ArkLaTex. Over our region, light SE to calm winds, with temperatures in the mid/upper 70s, which will not likely change much through sunrise. Radar showing all of afternoon convection dissipated. Changes to forecast this evening was to lower chances of showers & thunderstorms to 30%, keeping it 50% or better by 4 AM. Latest HRRR & NAM12 guidance continues to show increased lift across SE TX/SW LA after midnight, particularly after 4 AM through the morning hours. Remaining forecast on track. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018/ AVIATION...Rain and a few heavier showers continue to slowly decay across the region, however additional showers will develop along the coast late tonight then work inland through Sunday morning. Patchy lower ceilings are also occurring and will continue through the period. Winds will be light. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018/ DISCUSSION... Latest U/A analysis continued to show an upper trof over north central TX sandwiched between a ridge off the Carolina coast and another over the Four Corners. An upper low was also noted over the NE Gulf. At the SFC, low pressured was centered near DFW, with a CDFNT trailing to the south near CRP and a WMFNT extending east along the LA/AR border. Regional radars depict two main areas of convective cells, one along the Atchafalaya into SC LA and another from roughly LFK to GLS that is starting to ease into our interior E TX counties. Areas of mainly stratiform rain are between these two main areas. Little in the way of substantive changes were made to the forecast this afternoon, in what continues to look like a relatively wet end to September. In the short term, while no high resolution guidance has a perfect grip on current radar trends, recent HRRR runs depicting an eastward exit/winding down of the ERN area of convection along with a continued intrusion of the convection to our west the rest of the afternoon and into the evening appears to capture the overall idea. As was the case last night, a relative lull in inland activity is possible as the convection over E TX eventually wanes, but additional development is expected once again during the overnight hours into SUN morning. The upper trof over TX and associated SFC low will sink slowly TWD the SE tomorrow, with yet another active period of showers and thunderstorms expected amid the very moist airmass in place. These features are expected to slowly weaken MON and TUE, but the moisture axis, while not quite as robust, will remain in place thus keeping above normal rain chances in the forecast. For the mid to latter part of the week, global models are in general agreement on a broad upper trof digging into the Central CONUS, helping nudge a weak frontal boundary into the region. They differ on exactly how far south the boundary will get, with the CMC the most aggressive and the GFS the least. Despite this, the actual differences in sensible weather are generally minimal, with good rain chances still around through this period. 13 MARINE... High pressure extending into the northwest Gulf will maintain a light to occasionally moderate south to southeast flow into the coming week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected the next few days courtesy of a slow moving upper trof over Central Texas and abundant tropical moisture. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 86 71 87 / 50 60 40 60 LCH 74 85 74 87 / 50 70 40 40 LFT 74 88 74 88 / 50 60 30 60 BPT 75 84 74 87 / 50 70 50 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
942 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 942 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 Drying has moved into southern Indiana, temporarily turning the rain off for most areas north of the Ohio River. The RAP has had a good handle on this and does still show another wave of rain moving in from pre-dawn into the mid morning hours for the reasons outlined in the previous update. So while the radar doesn`t look very impressive right now, won`t back off PoPs or QPF for early Sunday morning quite yet. Issued at 613 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 ...Some Flooding Problems May Begin to Develop Early Sunday Morning... A corridor of light rain, with pockets of moderate rain, stretches from central Ohio to southeast Missouri this evening. This rain is expected to continue into the overnight hours. Late tonight and towards early Sunday morning an increase in rainfall rates is expected in north central Kentucky and far southern Indiana. This region will be under the right entrance region of a small upper jet streak across Indiana and Ohio. The low level jet is not expected to be very impressive, but there is a small speed max of 20-30kt showing up in the data during the wee hours of the morning, the nose of which will be pointed toward the I- 65 corridor. Isentropic lift will be present, though weak. Nevertheless, precipitable water values will be in the 1.5-2 inch range with a K Index in the mid 30s, and heavy rain is certainly a threat. Right now it looks like the wave of heaviest rain should move into the Louisville metropolitan area around 4am or so, and into the Blue Grass 1-3 hours later. 6-hour flash flood guidance (FFG) values are lowest along the lower Kentucky River and Elkhorn Creek valleys, on the order of 1.7-1.9 inches, with values more in the 2.25-2.75 inch range over the rest of the Flash Flood Watch. One hour FFG numbers are generally just over two inches, but do lower to 1.75" in some locations. The aforementioned lower Kentucky River and Elkhorn Creek basins have the lowest values, around 1.25". The major rivers and streams are in pretty good shape at this time and right now no river flooding is expected at the river forecast points. Peaks Mill on Elkhorn Creek in Franklin County will likely rise just above its action stage of 8 feet. It should be noted, though, that the river forecasts are dependent on the rainfall forecast, so if we get more/less rain or it falls in a different location than forecast, then the river forecasts could change. General flooding issues could begin to develop by sunrise Sunday morning, especially in locations that flood easily such as urban areas and low-lying spots with poor drainage. && .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 A cold front stretches west to east from western Tennessee to far east-central Kentucky on through eastern Kentucky. The front is tilted northward with the 700 mb level of the front just north of the Ohio River. Low level northward flow is carrying lots of moisture and overrunning the front producing widespread stratiform rain. With weak instability (around 250 J/kg), thunderstorms aren`t expected, but a few isolated cells are still possible. This flow is in response to the CWA sitting under the right entrance region of an upper level jet. Recent short term models have trended higher precipitation amounts further south than earlier global models. Tonight, the low level jet is expected to increase precipitable water amounts to near 2" along the Ohio River with higher amounts south. Areas along the Ohio River are expected to see higher rainfall amounts with 2-3" expected near Harrison County, Indiana and areas east into the Bluegrass Region. Tomorrow morning, the quasi-stationary front will continue to produce showers that are expected to drift to the east into the Bluegrass and northeastern Kentucky with a line of higher rainfall values tailing off to the southwest towards Nashville, Tennessee. The ground is more saturated east of Interstate 65 and a few counties west along the Ohio River. This coupled with higher forecast rain amounts were the deciding factors for a Flash Flood Watch and its location. This rainfall will keep temperatures down as well. The morning`s lows will be in the upper 50s in southern Indiana to the mid 60s along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Tomorrow`s highs are mostly near 70 with mid 70s near the Tennessee border and mid 60s around the Bluegrass. .Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 ...UNSETTLED AND WET SEVERAL DAYS... Sunday night, the front to our south will lift north. Focus for heavier rains will be close to this boundary and where another low- level jet is expected to develop overnight and cause added convergence. Depending on short-term rain amounts, we could see some additional flooding develop toward the Monday morning commute, even with lower total QPF. Current watch ends Sunday night and can wait and make a local extension if necessary then. As Monday continues, we should see a brief break in convection. However, as we will be in the warm sector of a moist airmass, any heating should help to develop at least scattered thunderstorms that linger into the overnight hours. Monday night, we likely will be more firmly into the warm sector, but having said that most models continue to show some overnight rainfall. Think this is a bit overdone, and will go a little under the SuperBlend guidance this period...but not by much in case the location of the front ends up closer to our area. Tuesday, a cold front will move into the Midwest, providing some focus between it and the Ohio Valley for some banded convection. Timing for the front seems just a tad slower, with the GFS/GEFS implying it could get to the Ohio River more Wednesday morning now. The CMC/00Z Euro both show a little faster progression. A slower front would mean storms getting into the region with less stability to work with. Winds aloft still warrant a watch for severe weather with any afternoon/evening convection moving through. Continuing their differences the GFS suite shows that front lingering around close enough to keep in some rain chances for the end of the work week, whereas the CMC/00Z Euro both a drier Thu/Fri forecast. Given the spread will not make any major changes to the blended forecast here, which keeps in at least slight rain chances for Saturday in a quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures generally should be near or below normal for highs and near or above for lows. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 713 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 The band of rain that has been training across southern Indiana and the northwest half of Kentucky will continue to do so through the overnight hours, accompanied by low ceilings. A wave of heavier rain is expected to move into the SDF and LEX areas in the pre-dawn hours and last into mid Sunday morning. Ceilings may lower slightly further during this time. In the afternoon rain will become more scattered as the morning wave moves off, but ceilings will remain low. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for INZ090>092. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ029>031-033>043- 045>049-054>057-066-067. && $$ Update...13 Short Term...KDW Long Term...RJS Aviation...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
629 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 403 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated zonal flow across the nrn CONUS. A shortwave was sliding through James Bay and nrn Ontario on the periphery of a deep mid/upper level trough over Hudson Bay. At the surface, a cold front extended from the srn end of James Bay to northwest MN. WAA ahead of the front supported mid clouds from ne MN into northern Upper Michigan. Otherwise, breezy sotuhwest winds and sunshine have pushed temps into the lower 60s. Tonight, expect the cold front to slide quickly southward across Lake Superior tonight. 900-700 mb fgen associated with the front will support post frontal -shra into the keweenaw by around midnight and into the rest of north central Upper Michigan overnight. Incrasing ene flow will also enhance pcpn chances/coverage for upslope areas in north central Upper Michigan. With the moisture only up to around 700 mb behind the front, expect pcpn as mainly drizzle or very light rain. Sunday, the areas of pcpn over the north will only slowly diminish into early afternoon given the persistent low level moisture and upslope flow. Highs will struggle to reach 50 north but should climb to around 60 south where light se winds prevail south of the front. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 339 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018 No significantly impactful weather expected in the long term. WAA could bring some rain to the far northern CWA, mainly over Lake Superior, Sun night. During the day Mon looks pretty dry with breezy southerly winds as a low approaches the region from the W. The low passes N of the CWA, dragging a cold front/trough across the area Mon night into Tue morning. Best rain coverage should be over the northern CWA, with more scattered to isolated over the southern CWA. A couple of shortwave troughs moving through the region Tue night and Wed may bring some rain showers, but coverage looks limited. 850mb temps drop down around 1C on Wed, so NW winds may lead to some showers downwind of Lake Superior. A stronger trough will then move N of the area Thu, bringing chances for showers along the trough axis Thu then behind the trough Thu night and Fri as models show lake effect rain showers in NW flow with 850mb temps around or less than 0C. High temps will fall into the 50s for the most part Wed through Sat. Frost will be possible at times, but will need to be fine tuned as precip and cloud cover can be better sorted out. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 629 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018 VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW into the evening hours. With passage of the cold front overnight, low MVFR cigs will set in, and there may be some -shra at KCMX late this evening and at KSAW late tonight into early Sunday. Cigs may fall to IFR at KCMX but are more likely to drop to IFR at KSAW due to upslope conditions. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 403 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018 A cold front front will sweep across the lake tonight, bringing a sharp wind shift to ne winds at 20-30kt which will continue through Sun. These winds will again be strongest over the western part of the lake. During Sun, there may be some gale force gusts over the w. Another cold front will approach on Mon, and this will keep winds mostly in the 20-30kt range, though the strongest winds will shift to eastern Lake Superior as winds become southerly. There could be some gale force gusts over the eastern part of the lake on Mon. Winds will shift to the nw at 15-25kt for Tue in the wake of the passing cold front. May slip in a day with winds mostly under 20kt on Wed. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB