Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/10/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
740 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.UPDATE...
TSTM line segment will likely remain in tact crossing the SW 3
COs. Upped POPs to 70 in WRN half of these COs with a fast taper
east of there. Kept AMA in slt chc area for now, but did note the
HRRR is showing the line extending to meet the ISO storms S of
Dumas and it does show these clipping the city. Will watch this
closely for additional updates. Storms in west have been near
SVR levels with hail and wind being main threat, but no reports
thus far. Very heavy rainfall is also occurring and some areas
will pick up a quick 1/2 to 1 1/2" rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms skated by DHT and expect they will do same at AMA
but this will have to be watched closely. For now it is not
mentioned in AMA TAF, but could happen between 2 and 4 UTC if the
current line of storms extends further east. Outside of the threat
for storms, no aviation concerns are advertised in next 24 hours,
although there is a slight chance for brief IFR conditions around
sunrise, especially where rains occur this evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/
DISCUSSION...
A shortwave will help aid in scattered storms off the NM
mountains expected to move into the western Panhandles this
evening and early tonight. Storms may be strong to isolated severe
today as ML CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg and about 30kts
effective shear. Don`t anticipate pops much east of the Amarillo,
Dumas, Guymon line, and even those areas are under a slight
chance.
As pops clear out tonight, the story of the next several days will
be dry and a warming trend. We will keep an eye on things Monday,
as there might be another shortwave, but under northerly flow, it
appears that any storms will be limited to the eastern NM area.
But high pressure will begin to dominate for the work week, and
overall temperatures will be on a rise so that by the end of the
week most areas will be in the low 90s. Right now there is little
indication that this high pressure will break down later in the
week, or possibly into next week.
Weber
AVIATION...
18z TAF Cycle:
VFR conditions have become dominant for KAMA and KDHT with KGUY
following closely behind. Included tempo group for KGUY through
19z for MVFR cigs. Otherwise, clouds will continue to become more
scattered through the afternoon. It does look like scattered
thunderstorms will try to move out of northeast NM this evening,
but there is some uncertainty with how far east the convection
will make it before dissipating. Went ahead with a VCTS and prob30
group for KDHT, but feeling the VCTS may be a bit overdone. Storms
should decrease in coverage considerably after 06z, and not
expecting any impacts at KAMA or KGUY. Can`t rule out some areas
of MVFR or even IFR cigs Monday morning, but confidence too low to
include at this time. Patchy fog is also not out of question.
Winds will generally be out of the south east through the evening
at 10 to 15 knots, becoming south to southwesterly through Monday
morning.
Ward
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
88/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
At 2 PM, high pressure provided sunny skies across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures were around 70 degrees.
Unlike the last couple of nights, the soundings are showing that
there will be a deep (up to 4.5 km) layer of light winds along and
east of the Mississippi River. The combination of these light
winds and clear skies will result in the development of fog in
the valleys, coulees, and cranberry bogs between 3 AM and 5 AM.
Some of this fog will be dense. A Dense Fog Advisory may be
needed. This fog will dissipate quickly between 9 AM and 10 AM.
On Monday, a shortwave trough will move east across northern
Minnesota. With the synoptic forcing remaining northwest of the
area and the system moving into a dry air mass, the showers and
storms will dissipate before reaching our area. With 925 mb
temperatures being around 3C warmer, the high temperatures will
top out in the lower to mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
On Tuesday and Tuesday night, a short wave trough will approach
the area from the Northern Plains. However, as it approaches, the
upper level ridge will be also retrograding. This will result in
this trough remaining northwest and north of the area. As a
result, the showers and storms will not make it into the region.
From Wednesday through Friday, 925 mb temperatures will warm from
18C to 21C. As this occurs, the high temperatures will gradually
warm from around 80 Wednesday to the lower and mid 80s by Friday.
From Friday night into the weekend, a Canadian cold front will
move southeast across the region. The timing of this system is
uncertain due to the potential ridging ahead of Florence.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
Cigs/WX/vsby: with clear skies and light sfc winds, concerns
continue for river valley fog at KLSE. T/Td spread of 6 F at
03z...pretty good for a fog threat. Light east/southeast sfc wind
also good to push fog off the Mississippi onto the airport. However,
both the RAP and NAM12 bufkit soundings point to winds +10 kts just
off the deck (by 300 ft) through the overnight hours, slackening
toward 5 am. VAD wind profile for KARX also showing 15 kts of wind
at 2 kft. Scenarios such as this usually result in fog within the
valley, but more 300 ft stratus at KLSE. Going to start trending
toward a higher threat for low stratus.
Winds: light southeast tonight then south for Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
River flood warnings remain in effect for the Kickapoo and
Trempealeau rivers. Levels are falling along both rivers. For
specific information, see the latest flood statements for each of
these rivers.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Rieck
HYDROLOGY...Boyne
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1022 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall across North Carolina. Expect a
continued chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
next few days with near normal temperatures. Depending on the
final track of Florence, our weather could be impacted during
the late portions of the forecast period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Radar indicating only a few lingering isolated showers near our
northern forecast area (FA). Will expect this activity to
dissipate in the near term. Other convective activity well to
our W and NW associated with a frontal boundary and upper
trough, appears will remain outside our FA as the front stalls.
Otherwise, fair overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The area is still expected to remain in the warm sector ahead
of a low pressure system Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will
approach from the west, but will not cross the area. Southerly
low-level flow will keep the air mass moist and unstable during
this period, so precipitation chances will increase, with the
best thunderstorm chances during the afternoons and evenings.
Temperatures will remain above normal through this period with
highs in the low to mid 90s and lows around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The big unknown through the longer term continues to be eventual
track of Florence. Please refer to the NHC for the latest track
and intensity guidance. Much uncertainty exists due to the
unknowns surrounding the final track of the hurricane. Have kept
a chance of convection each day per model consensus and latest
WPC guidance. Expect temperatures to also be impacted by final
track of Florence, all depending on cloud cover and potential
rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Convection winding down this evening. Some models indicated
isolated convection continuing overnight...but coverage too low
to include in TAFs. Expect VFR through at least 06Z. Fog threat
appears low with possible low level jet and some cloudiness.
Lamp and HRRR suggest low threat. Will include fog/stratus
07Z-13Z at AGS and OGB based on persistence.
High resolution models indicated showers and thunderstorms
developing Monday afternoon. Still expect primarily VFR
conditions. Have included VCSH all TAF sites during the
afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Continued low-level moisture will
keep the potential for early morning fog/stratus. Restrictions
are possible in scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. Any potential impacts from Florence will not be
in the area until around Thursday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1011 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.UPDATE...
The main update to the forecast is to reduce PoPs from Austin to San
Marcos eastwards to La Grange and Giddings. High resolution models
focus the heaviest rainfall tonight across Zavala, Frio, and Dimmit
Counties where moderate to heavy rainfall is already ongoing between
Batesville and Pearsall. While most of the area will only see a 1/2
to maybe inch of rainfall from some isolated showers and storms
through the night there are still indications from the HRRR and other
high resolution models that localized totals of around 3 to 4 inches
are possible, especially in the southwestern portions of the Rio
Grande Plains. The rest of the forecast is on track, but have
retrended all of the hourly weather grids.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/
AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
Intermittent mostly light showers will remain possible for much of
the period for SAT/SSF with AUS expected to see activity mainly in
the afternoon and early evening. More stable conditions are expected
at DRT through the period. Evening cigs should ease into mvfr levels
with some ifr conditions expected after midnight. Steady NE breezes
should limit fog development somewhat overnight. A few heavy
downpours and thunder will be possible later tonight mainly
affecting SAT/SSF as a shortwave disturbance moves across. Coverage
may not be enough to warrant mention in the TAFs as the better
forcing looks to pass to the south. Convection should become more
isolated diurnal Monday. Monday evening should see a return of mvfr
cigs around SAT/SSF and possibly AUS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Overall shower activity has decreased across the area
this afternoon. However, another round of moderate to heavy rain is
possible this evening into Monday as an upper level disturbance
pushes across the area. With the upper level support, the rich
tropical moisture in place and a frontal boundary that sits over the
Coastal Plains combined are good ingredients for additional one half
to one inch with isolated 3 to 5 inches of rainfall especially
across the southern part of the Rio Grande.
With that said, the Flash Flood Watch has been extended through
Monday morning for the southern part of Rio Grande and areas along
Interstate 35.
The Flash Flood Watch earlier issued for the far southeast county of
South Central Texas has been cancelled. Heavy rain is not expected
to have a big impact across the far southeast counties of South
Central Texas through this evening.
As the upper level disturbance moves to the southeast and into the
eastern portion of Texas, showers and thunderstorms are likely to
concentrate across the Coastal Plains Monday afternoon and evening.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across the
Coastal Plains and areas along and east of Interstate 35 through next
weekend as several upper disturbances move across the area and a weak
frontal boundary remains across the Coastal Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 79 69 83 70 86 / 80 40 40 30 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 70 80 69 86 / 80 40 50 30 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 70 84 70 87 / 90 50 50 30 60
Burnet Muni Airport 76 67 82 68 83 / 80 20 20 20 30
Del Rio Intl Airport 82 69 88 69 88 / 60 20 10 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 76 68 80 68 85 / 80 30 30 30 40
Hondo Muni Airport 79 70 86 70 87 / 80 50 40 20 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 80 70 80 70 86 / 80 50 50 30 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 71 82 71 87 / 80 50 80 50 70
San Antonio Intl Airport 82 70 84 70 86 / 90 60 50 30 40
Stinson Muni Airport 87 72 85 72 87 / 90 60 50 30 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Caldwell-Comal-Dimmit-Frio-Guadalupe-Hays-
Kendall-Kinney-Lee-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson-
Wilson-Zavala.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1046 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAF issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
Updated rain chances to reflect latest radar returns. The
previously mentioned line of storms in the southern valley has
weakened considerably after sunset. Suspect to still see isolated
storms amidst shower activity overnight, but severe threat has
ceased. The final area of showers along the front has moved into
northeast and central ND and will work through the area eastward overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
Increased rain chances for southern valley due to formation of
line of storms from Jamestown ND to Mobridge SD, just ahead of the
approaching cold front. Areas in the northern valley have not had
capping break early this evening due to persistent cloud cover,
and with sunlight waning, expect weaker activity to be the trend
for areas north of Highway 2 this evening. In southern ND, a
broken line of storms with some stronger and perhaps a few severe
is poised to move eastward through this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
Mid level shortwave trough is beginning to build towards southeast
Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba. As the surface a warm front
current sits near the Red River Valley, while a cold front has set
up over western ND. Clearing skies with steep mid level lapse rates
has supported 1000-3000 J/KG of ML CAPE according to current RAP
analysis over central ND, while better deep layer shear is offset to
the northwest of our CWA closer to surface cold front and surface
low. CINh has decreased, so as front begins to push east this
afternoon and forcing increases we should see showers/thunderstorms
begin to develop first near the Devils Lake area, then over spread
eastern ND through the evening, and eventually push across northwest
MN through early Monday morning. Better lift will tend to be across
our north closer to mid level trough, but frontogensis is still
advertised to support activity even into our south (though coverage
may not be as great).
Regarding severe threat: The instability axis will make it as far east
as the Red River Valley and with increasing shear along frontal
zone. This should support a few strong or severe storms within
larger shower/thunderstorms clusters through the evening weakening
further east as instability begins to drop off overnight (towards the
south and southwest). Threats should be on lower end of severe
criteria (1 inch hail, 60 mph wind) though if higher
instability/shear values were to occur larger hail threat may be
possible.
All shower/thunderstorm activity should exit our CWA to the east
around sunrise Monday as surface high pressure brings dry westerly
flow behind the cold front. While there may be a slight decrease in
temps aloft behind the cold front Monday morning, temps recover by
the afternoon under clear skies. Lows may be mild to to cloud
cover/precip and only weak CAA, and highs Monday should be similar
as today (generally in the 70s/near 80F).
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
A more SW flow aloft will set up, increasing temperatures and taking
storm track farther to the north. The first of several shortwaves
looks to move through late Tue, dragging a cold front through while
increasing thunderstorm chances Tue afternoon night. The frontal
passage will usher in some cooler temps for Wed. The active pattern
will continue into the end of the week as a quasi stationary surface
boundary interacts with additional shortwaves to instigate sporadic
chances for pcpn. Confidence in exact timing and specifics of
convection strength is low, but overall a wetter and closer to
average temp regime will be setting up for the region. Warmest day
will be Tue ahead of the surface front, with highs in the 80s,
before falling back into the 70s and then 60s as the week ends.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
Scattered showers and storms will develop along a cold front moving
through from west to east tonight. Ahead of this activity, expect
low VFR cigs and gusty south winds. Sites in the vicinity of
showers and storms will see MVFR or IFR cigs and vsbys, affecting
sites along and east of the Red River Valley overnight and into
early Monday morning. MVFR to IFR stratus may linger for the BDE
to BJI to PKD and eastward into the early to mid morning Monday.
Behind the front, sites will see VFR conditions and winds will
shift to the west and northwest, becoming light as high pressure
moves in on Monday.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...BP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
917 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.UPDATE...
A stationary front remains along the Texas Coast this evening,
with postfrontal stratus remaining over much of North and Central
Texas. The GOES-16 10.3-3.9 micron "night fog/stratus" product
shows a dense shield of stratus draped across most of our county
warning area. Surface observations show that this stratus is
holding strong with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies being reported
at most sites. Guidance indicates that mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies should remain through the night, thus sky cover was bumped
up a bit for the overnight grids.
Concerning PoPs in our southeastern counties, radar does not show
any echoes currently, but the HRRR and NAM both continue to
suggest the development of a few showers tonight along and south
of a Killeen to Palestine line as some subtle isentropic ascent
continues near the 700 mb cold front. PoPs were nudged down ever
so slightly, but remain in the chance category.
Besides that, morning lows should range from the lower 60s across
our northwestern counties to near 70 across our southeastern
counties. Winds will be light (5-10 MPH) and from the north to
northeast.
Godwin
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 725 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/
/00Z TAFs/
As a cold front stalls along the Upper Texas Coast, the shallow
postfrontal layer across North and Central Texas will struggle to
deepen. As a result, ceilings will persist between FL020-035.
Deeper northerly flow west of the TRACON will encourage clearing,
but any scattering along the I-35 corridor will be brief. With
minimal low-level dry advection, ceilings will have difficulty
staying above FL030 tonight. And as the boundary layer cools
overnight (aided by additional cold advection), ceilings should
eventually fall. Bases below FL020 would be more likely to occur
Waco, but a TEMPO for lower ceilings may be needed at the
Metroplex TAF sites with the 06Z package.
The frontal inversion will persist on Monday, and veering winds to
the northeast will discourage ceilings from lifting or scattering.
VFR should still take hold during the afternoon though Waco may
have more difficulty accomplishing this. Surface winds will
attempt to become southeasterly Monday night into Tuesday morning,
but easterly or northeasterly flow should persist on Tuesday.
25
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 256 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/
/Rest of Today and Tonight/
The stalled boundary south of our region will continue to be the
focus for light rain showers and misty conditions for areas south
of a Waco to Palestine line through the rest of the afternoon. As
the main trough axis moves east of North and Central Texas, the
boundary will rebound northward tonight, but likely remain across
our Central Texas counties. This boundary, as well as a weak
disturbance sliding up the Texas Coast, will likely become the
focus for additional scattered showers and isolated storms across
our far southern counties overnight.
In the meantime, dry air will be working its way from the north,
leading to a partial clearing north of Interstate 20 and west of
Interstate 35. At this point it appears as if there will not be
enough clearing for significant radiational cooling, precluding
the formation of fog. The best chance for patchy fog will likely
remain north of the Red River.
Low temperatures will be the coolest across the northwestern
counties, where clouds are likely to scatter earlier in the night.
Low 60s can be expected in those areas. For areas that remain
mostly cloudy to cloudy, mid 60s to around 70 degrees are
expected.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/
/Monday through the Weekend/
The upper level trough responsible for the swath of precipitation
across South Central and Southeast Texas will remain nearly
stationary for the first half of the week, providing a source for
continued rain chances across the southeastern third to half of
the region. The highest coverage and best rain chances will
remain south of the forecast area through mid week, along with the
better chances of locally heavy rain and additional flooding.
Weak mid level lapse rates will keep thunderstorms at a minimum
and the latest forecasts will only mention isolated thunder
through Tuesday. Slight chance POPs will extend as far north as
the Interstate 20 corridor tomorrow and Tuesday, and then to the
Red River on Wednesday as Gulf moisture gets nudged a little
farther north. With the cold front nestled over southeast Texas,
temperatures across North and Central Texas will be slightly below
normal for the next few days with lows in the 60s and highs in
the lower 80s.
Surface winds behind the front will remain out of the north
through Monday, veer to the east by Tuesday and return to the
southeast on Wednesday as an upper low digs across the West Coast.
Not only will this expand the rain chances a little farther
north, but temperatures will also return to near or slightly above
normal values starting Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday as a weak
upper trough moves from east to west from the western Gulf across
Texas. A few of these storms may produce brief heavy rain, but
neither severe weather nor widespread flooding is expected based
on the forecast environment.
Moisture will remain in place next weekend, keeping the warm and
humid weather going Saturday and next Sunday. Rain chances will
dwindle, however, as we move through the weekend, due to
subsidence caused by a strengthening mid level ridge over the
Plains. The focus will shift back to the tropics as multiple
systems work their way west across the Atlantic, and another
disturbance develops across th eastern Caribbean. We will keep an
eye on activity in the Caribbean, but at this time we do not see
any significant threats to the Gulf of Mexico.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 82 68 83 70 / 0 5 10 20 10
Waco 69 81 68 82 68 / 10 20 20 30 20
Paris 67 80 64 82 67 / 5 10 10 20 10
Denton 64 82 66 83 67 / 0 5 5 10 10
McKinney 65 82 65 83 68 / 0 5 10 20 10
Dallas 69 82 68 83 70 / 5 5 10 20 10
Terrell 68 81 67 82 69 / 5 10 20 30 20
Corsicana 70 80 68 81 69 / 10 30 30 30 20
Temple 68 81 68 82 68 / 20 30 20 30 20
Mineral Wells 64 82 66 82 66 / 0 5 5 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
37/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
836 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the northwestern Atlantic will maintain
a warm and humid tropical airmass across the Carolinas. This
high will also help steer what is expected to become a very
strong Hurricane Florence toward the Carolina coastline Thursday
into Friday. Depending on what path the hurricane takes, significant
impacts from strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge
flooding may develop.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM Sunday...Convection lingering across Darlington and
Marlboro has prompted a flood advisory, but elsewhere across the
area, convection has come to an end for now. The latest HRRR
shows convection over the land dying out this evening and
nocturnal activity over the waters developing after
midnight with some shwrs making it on shore overnight into Mon
morning. Southerly flow will continue around high pressure
building back in over the area overnight.
High pressure will continue on Monday with light winds and only meso-
scale forcing. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to be in
the widely scattered to scattered range along the sea-breeze and
inland.
With the swell from Florence moving into the area will again go with
a high risk of rip currents. A coastal flood advisory remains in
effect for downtown Wilmington and points along the Cape Fear
River from 9 PM to 11 pm. This will cause minor flooding at the
battleship and along downtown
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Building mid-level ridging offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic states will dominate this period as it extends
southwest to the Southeast U.S. States. This will prevent a sfc cold
front from dropping into the ILM CWA in fact models stall it NW thru
N of the ILM CWA by the end of this period. With a tropical airmass
in place, expect showers and thunderstorms to occur thruout this
period, with the hier POPs slated for Tue midday thru early evening.
During the overnight periods of Mon and Tue nights, nocturnal
convection from off the Atlantic waters will be possible. Pops have
been geared to a hier chance along the immediate coast then inland.
The subsidence well ahead of Hurricane Florence may reach the ILM
CWA by or after Wed daybreak. Have indicated a subsiding trend to
POPs leading up to Wed daybreak. The diurnal range in temperatures
will run 20 to 25 degrees except around 15 degrees along the
immediate coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Most significant event during the period
will occur during the Wed-Fri time range as Hurricane Florence
approaches the southeast. Still a lot to resolve with respect to
the exact track, but it seems more and more likely that major
impacts from the storm will occur in the ILM forecast area. As
the storm moves onshore a ridge begins to build over the OH/TN
valleys, causing Florence to slow to a crawl. Cloud cover and
rain will linger over the Carolinas and Virginia through the
weekend. Rainfall amounts will depend largely on where the storm
makes landfall. The bulk of the heavy rain and flooding from the
rapidly slowing storm will occur north of the center.
Temperatures near normal at the start of the period will dip
below normal during the day with the storm lingering in the
region. Lows will run above climo due to cloud cover and low
level moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Convection inland should die out by 01Z. Models again
show some inland fog after 08Z. Think we will stay just above IFR,
but brief IFR conditions are possible, particularly inland. Monday,
same as it has been with a light gradient and scattered convection
along the resultant by noon.
Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR through Wednesday with the
exception of isolated showers or t-storms. Patchy early morning
MVFR fog is also possible. Hurricane Florence may begin to
affect the area Thursday with strengthening winds and
deteriorating ceiling/visibility and continuing into Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...Winds are expected to be south to
southeast at 5 to 10 knots through tomorrow. Seas will run 2 to
3 feet with a 1 foot southeast swell. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the waters tonight
and along the land breeze at sunrise on Monday. Winds and seas
may be higher in showers and tstms.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Weak ridging will influence the winds during
this time period. Along with the weak ridging will be a relaxed sfc
pg. Will identify a dominant wind direction for the 2 periods, Mon
night and Tue. For Tue night, all waters will become Easterly with
speeds around 10 kt.
Significant seas will be governed by the 2 to 3 foot forerunner 11
to 13 second period swells from Florence. Seas are fcst to increase
to around 4 ft late Tue night. This the result of a 13 to 15 second
period swell or wave-train, associated with Florence.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Treacherous marine conditions expected
through the duration of the period. Hurricane Florence will be
approaching from the southeast as the period begins. Tropical
storm force winds could reach the waters as early as Wed evening
with seas rapidly approaching 10 ft late in the day. On the
current forecast path the worst conditions would be late Thu and
Thu night, as the storm crosses the waters and moves onshore.
Conditions will remain treacherous on Fri with the storm
expected to slow down around the time of landfall and linger in
the region into the weekend. Headlines are expected through the
duration of the period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
108-110.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ/RH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1026 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
Based on current trends in radar and the HRRR model, decided to
greatly lower precipitation chances for the rest of tonight. Will
be going will 20 to 50 percent chance of showers as thunder has
long since ended across the area and it looks like no more will
occur. The hazardous weather outlook was also updated to remove
thunder for tonight. The forecast update has already been sent
out.
UPDATE Issued at 820 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
The flash flood watch was allowed to expire at 8pm this evening.
Therefore, the hazardous weather outlook and zone forecast text
products were both updated to reflect the expiration. Also used
the latest obs to freshen up the hourly forecast grids. Will
continue to monitor current trends in radar imagery and model data
and will update the forecast again if necessary by the end of the
shift.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 322 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
Upper level low pressure near the southern end of lake Michigan
continues to pull slowly NNE. At the surface low pressure
centered northeast of Lexington continues to very slowly move
northeast. A trailing cold front extends southwest to just west
of Bowling Green. With the very slow movement of the upper and
surface systems, the cold front will be slow to move across
eastern KY. There is good model agreement that the front will be
near the VA border at 12Z Monday, and then push on southeast
before stalling out along the Appalachians.
With ongoing flood and flash flood warnings in the area we will
continue the flash flood watch, which is in effect until 8 PM.
Heavier rains will shift southeast of the areas that have already
been hard hit, and convection will decrease in intensity this
evening. The southeast part of the area has not experienced
repeated heavy rains like the northwest and flash flood guidance
is higher there. So even though showers and storms will continue
beyond 8 PM the threat for new flash flooding will end. However
some flood warnings may need to be extended in the northwest for
ongoing flooding that will continue well after the rain ends.
With the front stalling just to the southeast of our area along
the Appalachians, we will see much cooler air spread into eastern
KY for a couple of days. Highs on Monday will only be in the upper
60s to lower 70s and lows Monday night will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Rain will end late tonight into early Monday from
northwest to southeast, but a few showers may linger in the
southeast into Monday night.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
The cold front which will move southeast of the area on Monday
will stall along the Appalachians, but will meander back into the
area by mid week. There is excellent model agreement that a
sprawling area of upper level high pressure north of Bermuda will
build west as the week progresses. With rising heights and the
surface front moving back into the area, we`ll see temperatures
return to well above normal readings, with above normal
temperatures continuing into next weekend. With increasing
temperatures and moisture, and the already mentioned front moving
back into the area, the threat for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will return by midweek, and continue into the
weekend.
The main focus for many folks during the coming week will of
course be the path of Hurricane Florence. The hurricane will
track west or west-northwest on the south side of the upper high,
before nearing or moving onshore somewhere over the southeast to
mid Atlantic coast. There is tremendous uncertainty of the path of
the hurricane, with the ECMWF still having an extreme western
solution into western VA and the latest GFS run indicating the
hurricane may not even make land fall. For our area it is
important to note that even with the western solution of the ECMWF
any significant impacts and heavy rain will remain east of
eastern KY, mainly on the east side of the Appalachians.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
Numerous showers, and few storms, will continue to move across
eastern Kentucky this evening and tonight. Expect restrictions at
all TAF sites, mainly in the form of low CIGS between 300 and 800
feet. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat for a while
tonight, but should steadily diminish as a cold front moves across
the area. The rain should finally stop directly affecting the TAF
sites between 12 and 15Z on Monday. Conditions will be slow to
improve on Monday, as moist air and low level clouds remain in
place behind a departing cold front. We can expect IFR to LIFR
conditions tonight, and MVFR to IFR conditions on Monday. Winds
will shift to the west at around 5 mph during the day on Monday
across the area.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
711 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
Another quiet short term period is expected. Water vapor imagery and
RAP analysis show a pair of shortwaves tracking ene toward southern
Hudson Bay, one over ne Manitoba and a second over southern
Saskatchewan/sw Manitoba. Cold front associated with these waves
extends from ne Manitoba to the central Dakotas. Mid-level ridge
over northern Ontario into the Upper Mississippi Valley is
supporting sfc high pres over southern Quebec with ridging extending
back across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. Similar
to yesterday, nighttime/morning flow off the Great Lakes led to
expansion of cu/stratocu downwind of the Lakes after sufficient
heating occurred late morning. These clouds have since
almost completely dissipated as low-level moisture is mixing out.
Tonight, fcst area remains under an axis of min precipitable water
around one-third of an inch, similar to last night. With sfc high
pres over southern Quebec continuing to ridge back to the Upper
Lakes, low-level wind speeds viewed at 950mb will be similar to or
lighter than last night over much of the area. As a result, favored
the low side of guidance for low temps, utilizing mostly the bias
corrected CMC global which is normally a superior performer on
radiational cooling nights. Expect some mid 30s at the traditional
cold spots in the interior central and eastern fcst area, and will
include a mention of patchy frost. Could be some patchy/shallow fog
as well over the s central, mainly low areas and around
lakes/rivers/swampy areas. To the w, approaching cold front
associated with the aforementioned shortwaves will move closer,
resulting in a tightening of the pres gradient/stronger low-level
winds over far western Upper MI. With sfc winds stirring, low temps
should be at least a few degrees higher than last night at most
locations over the far w.
On Mon, the second of the 2 shortwaves previously mentioned will
move across northern Ontario. Weakening low-level jet/moisture
transport and low-level convergence suggest shra that will be
ongoing early Mon morning across northern MN will likely dissipate
as they continue eastward. Some of the shra may survive to reach far
western Lake Superior, but that should be it. Otherwise, expect
another mostly sunny day. Once again, there may be an expansion of
cu/stratocu in the s to se flow off Lake MI during the morning, but
warmer air at 850mb compared to this morning suggests coverage will
be less than recent mornings. In general, high temps should be a few
degrees higher than today at most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
Models indicate that mid/upper level ridging will dominate the
northern Great Lakes through much of the upcoming work week keeping
conditions dry. A trough deepening near the West Coast later by
midweek will maintain a downstream ridge across much of the central
and eastern CONUS. A strengthening sw flow between these features
into the Upper Great Lakes will allow for a warming trend. Frontal
boundaries approaching from the west will generally remain north and
west of the region which should limit shower/t-storm chances for
Upper Michigan through much of the work week. A series of stronger
shortwaves emerging from the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains by the
weekend will work to flatten the mid-upper level ridge and bring a
frontal boundary into the Northern Great Lakes increasing the
chance of showers/t-storms over Upper Mi.
Mon night-Tue, A weakening shortwave and its associated forcing will
slide to the north of Lake Superior Mon, and although model
soundings do show some increase in low-level moisture into the
western U.P. Mon night/Tue morning, given weak forcing not expecting
much in way of pcpn. Weak ridging over the rest of the fcst area
will maintain mostly dry conditions into Tue, although increasing
dew points into the upper 50s/lower 60s will make it much more humid
as Tue high temps climb into the mid to upper 70s.
Tue night into Wed, A stronger shortwave moving through northern
Ontario will help push a frontal boundary toward the arrowhead of MN
as a warm front moves across Upper Mi. The close proximity of this
frontal boundary and the hint of some weaker shortwaves moving along
the boundary could trigger some showers/t-storms as models indicate
MUCAPE values at or above 1000j/kg. Gut feeling is that most of the
convection would stay out over western/north central Lake Superior
closer to the frontal boundary, but a few showers/isold storms could
sneak into far western U.P. Tightening sw gradient and increased
mixing from low-level winds will keep min temps up Tue night around
60F across much of the area especially for downsloping locations
along Lake Superior. Continued southerly flow and mixing of 850
temps near 18C to sfc should yield high temps in the upper 70s/lower
80s across much of the area.
Wed night into Fri, Models advertise amplifying ridge and rising 5H
heights across the Upper Great Lakes region in response to trough
digging into the Pacific NW Coast. At this same time, Hurricane
Florence is expected to slam into the mid-Atlantic Coast sometime
Thu and could remain nearly stationary providing a major flooding
threat for that region of the CONUS into next weekend. The amplified
ridging over our area will result in quiet, dry conditions and
continued above normal temps through much of this period. 850 mb
temps remaining near 18C should again result in high temps Thu and
Fri in the upper 70s and lower 80s for most locations. Min temps Wed
night and Thu night will generally be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Fri night into Sun, Models then show mid-upper flow flattening out
again toward next weekend as a series of strong shortwaves emerge
out the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains and move east across
the northern CONUS. This will allow for a cold frontal boundary to
sag into Upper Michigan with increasing chances for showers/t-storms
Fri into Saturday. PWATs surging toward 2 inches ahead of the front
with dew points into mid 60s would indicate the potential for heavy
rain with the storms that develop. Depending on timing of front the
pattern could also result in some risk of strong to severe storms
with increasing deep layer shear to 40-50 knots and building
instability with MLCAPE values to 1000-1500 j/kg. Both the GFS and
ECMWF indicate a sfc high pres ridge building into the area behind
the front for Sun which would usher in cooler and drier conditions
for the end of next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 707 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
For this TAF issuance, fog/low-level stratus potential continues
to look low for the terminals. Other than upper-level clouds
cruising overhead through the period, and an afternoon CU field
developing tomorrow, look for VFR conditions to prevail. S to SE
winds overnight will remain elevated at KIWD and KCMX as the
pressure gradient tightens over the region, and become more S-SW
on Monday.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 337 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018
With a cold front to the nw and a high pres ridge just se of Lake
Superior, se to s winds on Lake Superior will gust to around 20kt
tonight. Weakening pres gradient on Mon will allow wind gusts to
fall back to around 15kt during the day. Winds will then remain
under 20kt into Tue. Another approaching cold front will result in
stronger winds of 15-25kt Tue night into Wed morning. Winds will
then diminish to under 15kt during Wed as the cold front weakens
and fails to reach Lake Superior. Expect somewhat stronger winds
again for Thu/Fri (gusts to around 20kt) as a pair of low pres
waves lift from the Plains to northern Ontario. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.DISCUSSION...It continues to be a very nice early September day
across the Northern Rockies with temperatures warming into the 70s
to low 80s. Expect temperatures to cool tonight down into the 40s
in the valleys and potentially in the upper 30s for portions of
the Flathead, Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys. It should be cool
night in the high valleys across southwest Montana as temperatures
fall into the 30s.
Not much change to the forecast for Monday. Still anticipating a
cold front to traverse through the region causing gusty winds to
develop with a chance for showers over northwest Montana. Area
lakes will be breezy, generally between 10 and 20 mph, but not
expecting lake wind advisory criteria at this time. For the most
part, it will be a nice day for most areas except maybe in the
higher elevations of Glacier National Park where strong gusty
winds combined with temperatures in the 50s with passing showers
could be a little chilly.
A trough is still expected to remain over the Pacific Northwest
for Wednesday through the rest of the week. This will allow for
temperatures to remain at or below normal for this time of the
year. Also, forecast models have been trending slightly wetter
with the overall pattern, especially for north-central Idaho and
northwest Montana. Given the trends in the forecast models, we did
increase the chances for precipitation in those locations
mentioned above. Elsewhere across the Northern Rockies,
precipitation is expected to be more showery, but slight
increases for chances in rain were made to the forecast as well.
&&
.AVIATION...Expect typical afternoon winds and favorable flying
conditions for the remainder of this Sunday afternoon and evening.
The HRRR smoke forecast does show the potential for smoke near
fires today, otherwise impact should remain limited. A front will
move through Monday and will cause gusty westerly winds between 20
and 30 knots between 10/1800Z and 11/0300z. There could be a few
showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm near the Canadian
Border. Winds could gust near 40 knots near ridge-top over Glacier
National Park.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1045 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sink southward across central NC, before stalling
across south portions of the area early Monday morning. The front is
expected to lift back to the north as a warm front on Monday. In the
wake of the front, a warm and humid air mass will be in place
through mid week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day. Based on the official NHC forecast, portions of the Carolinas
can expect significant impacts from Tropical Cyclone Florence late
this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM Sunday...
A broken band of scattered showers and storms from the SE Piedmont
across the Sandhills and just S of the Triangle and Wilson should
continue a slow drift to the N over the next several hours, in line
with recent HRRR runs. One storm intensified as it approached the
stationary CAD front and locally higher low level shear, exhibiting
deep but broad rotation and bringing 50+ mph winds near Pinehurst.
These storms have formed in a narrow band of ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
beneath weak upper divergence. Will need to watch this activity
carefully over the next few hours as they shift into the zone of
enhanced low level vorticity and around 20 kts of effective deep
layer shear. Otherwise, weak overrunning atop the stable pool
covering much of the Piedmont will bring a threat of a few sprinkles
or showers overnight, so after a few hours of an isolated storm
threat (with quick spinup potential) in the vicinity of the
boundary, will maintain a low chance pop across the NW half of the
CWA later tonight. Climatology for such CAD events, along with high
res guidance, supports stratus holding firm and even expanding
areally overnight through Mon morning, with continued areas of fog
becoming more dense in spots as we approach daybreak, primarily over
the N and W CWA. Expect lows in the lower 60s NW ranging to the
lower 70s SE. -GIH
Earlier discussion from 357 PM: Given the shallowness of this CAD
layer, daytime heating should be fairly efficient at mixing out the
wedge from SE to NW across most, if not all of the forecast area by
the mid to late afternoon. The resultant differential heating from
the SE to NW erosion of the CAD regime, in concert with weak sfc
frontal-convergence will support the re-development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area through the afternoon and
evening. It does appear slightly drier aloft/lower PWATS advecting
into the area from the south will limit overall coverage.
Rain chances will gradually fade with loss of heating, with the best
chance for showers to linger the longest across the NW Piedmont
where moist upglide along the lingering wedge/quasi-stationary front
will support the best lift. Fcst soundings suggest stratus will
re-develop late this evening and spread south overnight, encompassing
all of central NC. Additionally, areas of fog, possibly dense
in a few spots is also possible. Overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s
NW to lower/mid 70s SE.
&&
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 357 PM Sunday...
Deep southwesterly flow between the mid/upper level ridge off the
western Atlantic and an upper level trough shearing out over the
Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region will keep moist 1.75-2.0" PWAT air in
place. After the morning stratus and lingering damming airmass in
place across the NW Piedmont mixes out through the morning and early
afternoon hours, daytime heating and resultant moderate
destablization within the moist airmass will support the development
of scattered convection across central NC. Greatest coverage will
mostly likely be driven by mesoscale boundaries/forcing; 1)in
proximity to the NW Piedmont where the later erosion of the wedge
will most likely set-up a zone of differential heating; 2)Across the
coastal plain, where the interaction of sea-breeze will be most
influential. Expect convection to die off after sunset.
Highs ranging from lower/mid 80s NW to lower 90s SE. Overnight lows
70 to 75.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 358 PM Sunday...
Tuesday through Wednesday Night: A sfc cold front is progged to be
just on our western periphery on Tuesday, with a series of weak
disturbances expected to push from southwest to northeast through
the Carolinas through the middle of the week. This will allow, at
minimum, diurnal enhancement of shower/storm activity each afternoon
and evening, especially with an airmass characterized by high PWs
and moderate instability remaining in place. Afternoon high
temperatures will remain slightly above normal, topping out in the
mid to upper-80s (north) with low 90s across the South. Low temps
during this time are expected to generally be in the lower 70s.
Wednesday night through Saturday: The forecast becomes murky
mid/late week with the approach of what is now Hurricane Florence.
The mid/upper level ridge strength and position will play a key role
in determining the actual track of the storm, with the trend in the
guidance to a more left/westward track (vs re-curving). Such a trend
is a cause for concern for us here in central North Carolina, which
remains in the direct path of the NHC forecast track, with a
landfall expected by pre-dawn on Friday near the NC/SC state line.
If this trend in the forecast continues and holds true, potentially
life threatening impacts in the form of damaging winds, flooding
rains, and potentially even some weak and short-lived tornadoes will
be possible. It remains a bit too early to start nailing down
specifics, however, as even the slightest shifts in the ultimate
track, intensity, and size of the storm could cause wild
fluctuations in said impacts. Even so, residents of central NC are
strongly encouraged to closely monitor the latest forecasts and to
ensure everyone has emergency kits and a hurricane plan in place.
Don`t forget about making plans for your pets too! It is never too
early to prepare! For more tropical information, visit our new
Tropical website at www.weather.gov/rah/tropical.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...
24 hour TAF period: IFR to LIFR cigs are expected to develop behind
a southward sinking cold front this evening into the overnight, with
the front becoming stationary around KFAY (where more in the way of
MVFR/IFR conditions are expected late tonight into Monday morning.
Cigs should lift from south/southeast to northwest on Monday from
around 15Z to 21Z, with the potential for afternoon/evening showers
and storms.
Looking ahead: Mainly afternoon thunderstorms with early morning sub-
VFR stratus will then be possible through the remainder of the
extended. Based on the latest official NHC forecast, adverse
aviation impacts could occur as early as Wednesday night and
continue through Friday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/CBL/Haines/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BSD/CBL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Currently seeing VFR conditions across the terminals early
this evening but low stratus is expected to develop mainly
after midnight, with MVFR ceilings affecting the terminals
late tonight into Monday morning. Could see some IFR ceilings
and some fog develop over the southern terminals for a few
hours Monday morning but confidence remains too low at this
time to go introduce IFR ceilings and lower visibilities at
this time. Will re-evaluate this potential for the 06Z TAF
cycle. Stratus will lift/scatter out to VFR after 18Z Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and tomorrow)
Drier and cooler...
Abundant cloud cover over the region has kept temperatures on the
cool side. Some of the MOS guidance have overnight lows dropping
into the upper 50s. Drier air from the north will filter into the
area tonight, but with high soil moisture content and moist
boundary layer, temperatures this evening will have a hard time
cooling off after sunset. Look for overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s. The RAP13 and HRRR Hi-Res models depict a few isolated
pockets of fog across the Interstate 10 corridor occurring in the
early morning hours. Fog development will depend on how much
dissipation of the mid level clouds occur during the overnight
hours. Commuters along Interstate 10 along the sheltered areas
could see patchy fog. Across the rest of the region, morning low
clouds will slowly lift and we will get some peaks of sunshine by
the afternoon. Temperatures will be modified again by the moist
boundary layer due to the days of heavy rainfall saturating the
ground. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.
40
LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Weekend)
The forecast thinking for the long term has not changed much in
the last 12 to 24 hours. Models in the long term are generally
drier for western central Texas than the last week, with a warming
trend. Temperatures by the middle of the week should be back up to
near normal (high in the upper 80s). Lows will be a little warmer
than normal with Gulf moisture remaining in the area, slowing
overnight cooling. A shortwave is still expected to move through
on Tuesday, keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for areas mainly east of an Abilene to Sonora line that
afternoon/evening. Following that, we will see generally drier
weather for the area, aside from a slight chance for
isolated/scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms for areas
south of a San Saba to Brady to Sonora line each afternoon through
the end of the week. Models continue to show a broad easterly wave
moving into the area at the end of the week, giving the area a
better chance for better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
Friday into the weekend. However, while this appears to be the
next best chance for rain, we are not expecting a widespread heavy
rain event like we had the last several days.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 62 82 64 83 / 0 5 5 10
San Angelo 64 85 65 85 / 5 5 5 10
Junction 66 85 67 84 / 10 10 10 20
Brownwood 64 82 67 82 / 5 5 10 20
Sweetwater 62 82 64 83 / 0 5 0 5
Ozona 63 83 64 84 / 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/24