Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/07/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
542 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are currently in place over most of northern and
central New Mexico early this evening, the exception being where
stronger showers and storms are producing temporary downpours with
lowered ceilings/visibility. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue increasing across central New Mexico through the evening
with low confidence on shower characteristics after midnight. High
resolution forecast models indicate showers and storms will slowly
translate eastward into the eastern half of the state through dawn
Friday with some scattered areas of low clouds and MVFR/IFR ceilings
surrounding. Drier air is expected to infiltrate western New Mexico
on Friday, limiting afternoon storm chances while scattered to
numerous storms remain possible in the eastern half.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
with locally heavy rain, are expected tonight through Friday. Drier
air and upper level high pressure will work into western New Mexico
later Friday and over the state Saturday and Sunday, reducing the
number and areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Over the
weekend any showers and storms that develop may be focused over and
near the central mountain chain and northeast New Mexico. High
temperatures will be cooler than normal through Saturday before
warming to above average next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A quiet afternoon so far on the radar with storms mostly along the
boundary of thinner/thicker cloud cover, and a few over the northern
higher terrain. Models again not in very good agreement even during
the next 6-12 hours. Latest HRRR indicates convection diminishing by
midnight, but has what appears a weak surface boundary pushing into
northeast New Mexico late this evening/after midnight, similar to
the NAM12. However, the NAM12 develops some precipitation along and
behind this boundary as it sags into the northeast and east central
plains late this evening and overnight while the HRRR is dry.
Slanted the pop forecast towards the NAM12, but confidence isn`t
supremely high.
Warming and drying trend from the west Friday and into the weekend
is still in the forecast. Models do suggest a disturbance crossing
north central and northeast New Mexico Saturday will produce some
meager precipitation. The disturbance forecast to clip the same part
of New Mexico Sunday/Sunday night is now forecast to be more
vigorous, and may generate showers and storms over a larger portion
of the north central and northeast, and may even spread into the
east central Sunday night. Made some adjustments to the pop/wx grids
for this.
Early to mid next week, models indicate the upper ridge over the
Southwest U.S. may be flatter, then is shunted to the east of New
Mexico. The ECMWF has fallen into line with this idea, so there may
be some moisture that leaks into western and central New Mexico mid
to late next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across western NM where
clouds cleared and more destabilization has occurred after last
nights rainfall. As clouds across central and eastern NM continue to
diminish this afternoon, additional thunderstorm development will be
possible, though overall, it will not be as widespread as yesterday.
Good to excellent RH recoveries are likely again tonight.
On Friday, the upper level high will begin to nudge eastward into
western NM. This will limit convection across the west, though
eastern NM will remain active. The upper high will continue to
expand eastward over the weekend, and drier air will continue to
filter in behind it. This will lower minimum humidity values each
day, with sub-15% humidities likely across the northwest plateau by
Sunday. A few storms will remain possible both days, though there
will be a significant downtick. Nonetheless, a weak shortwave will
clip NE NM on Sunday which may spark a few strong storms there.
Monday will be very similar to Sunday, and by Tuesday, the upper
level ridge will be centered over NM. Thereafter, models are
suggesting the upper high will elongate from NM northeast toward the
Great Lakes as a trough moves into the western CONUS. Some modest
moisture may creep northward allowing for a slight uptick in
thunderstorm coverage toward the end of next week.
Poor ventilation rates remain likely across eastern NM and portions
of the Rio Grande Valley Friday and Saturday.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE MVFR to IFR cigs continue across portions of eastern
NM late this morning, though will lift throughout the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this aftn, initially
over the high terrain before spreading east or southeast onto lower
elevations. MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible with heavy rain producing
thunderstorms.
Most storms will diminish by 03Z, though any lingering storms will
favor eastern NM. Clouds should diminish or clear out overnight
across western NM but another round of MVFR/IFR cigs are possible
across portions of eastern NM overnight, especially across NE NM.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
935 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Severe convection over eastern Stark and western Morton counties
has dissipated. A few thunderstorms remain over south central ND
for the next couple hours but as convective inhibition increases
and cells move away from the area of greatest instability west of
the Missouri, expect a downward trend in intensity. We did extend
some slight chance to chance pops from southwest/south central
northeast into the James River valley through the late evening.
Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast. Scattered
convection from the Turtle Mountains into northeast ND will
gradually slide southward tonight and may still clip the JMS area
with general thunder late tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Convection in the north central has moved out of the forecast
area. Additional convection is now developing over southwest into
south central ND. Good instability but and marginal shear in this
area could support a few strong to severe storms early this
evening with the biggest threat being hail to an inch or so.
Updated pops this evening to the convection. Otherwise no
significant changes to the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Chances for showers and thunderstorms north and then into east
central North Dakota tonight highlight the short term period.
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms remain a possibility
across the north through this evening.
Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level/700mb shortwave
now moving into Roosevelt County, MT, which is forecast to shift
across northern North Dakota this evening. Latest SPC mesoanalysis
still advertises 1000 J/Kg of MU CAPE/most unstable CAPE along
with Effective Bulk Shear of 35kt, which is sufficient for strong
to isolated severe thunderstorms. Latest radar indicates
thunderstorms from Upham to Rugby. Will maintain strong to
isolated severe thunderstorm wording within the HWO and weather
story. The threat for thunderstorms will sag south tonight, from
the Turtle Mountains this evening into the northern James River
Valley. This is right along a developing warm frontal boundary
with a persistent low level southerly wind flow and associated
moisture advection. Thus expect elevated convection as the
surface decouples this evening per RAP BUFKIT KJMS sounding.
A lack of shortwaves through most of Friday will allow for a dry
and warm day south, while the warm front remains nearly stationary
until late afternoon/early evening before moving towards the northern
border. Highs Friday will be in the 80s; as compared to the north
where the warm front will not have quite made it through, and
highs there will be in the lower 70s. Additional shortwaves begin
migrating into western North Dakota after 00z Saturday, which
leads into the Long Term Discussion beginning Friday night below.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Expect elevated showers and thunderstroms Friday night north,
located along and north of the warm front as it shifts into
southern Canada. For Saturday, a cold front will move into western
North Dakota between 00z and 03z Sunday, then through central ND
by around daybreak Sunday, before stalling over the James River
Valley. A secondary cold front pushes the initial/stalled front
east Sunday night. This scenario sets up showers and thunderstorms
across western North Dakota Saturday afternoon and evening, then
central ND Saturday night. It would appear the threat for showers
and thunderstorms continues Sunday and Sunday night in the James
River Valley due to the cold front slowing and stalling Sunday
morning. Overall a weak CAPE/Shear environment dominates most of
the convection Saturday and Saturday night, then per GFS, increases
over the James River Valley late Sunday afternoon/evening.
Although strong to possible severe thunderstorms exists with the
entire cold frontal movement from west to east late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday evening; the favored area for severe
weather as of now would be the James River Valley during Sunday
afternoon/evening.
The secondary cold front sweeps through Sunday night with cooler
and drier air arriving Monday. Southwest flow aloft continues
through most of next week, which keeps mostly an active pattern
in place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
VFR conditions expected this forecast period. Convection is firing
east of KDIK and could move into KBIS aerodrome this evening.
Added a period of VCTS at KBIS. Convection in the north central to
northeast could also drop south to near KJMS. Elsewhere convection
is not expected. Added a mention of LLWS at KBIS 09-14 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
758 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Showers and thunderstorms have moved south over the Palmer Divide
of over the eastern plains. Removed the mention for showers and
storms for most of the Urban Corridor for tonight. Skies will
continue to clear this evening, leading to good radiational
cooling and fog. Expect many areas to see fog by sunrise with
visibility falling below a quarter mile in places.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Interaction between a weak upper-level weather disturbance and a
moist, marginally unstable atmosphere will result in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over and along the Front Range
through mid-evening tonight. The strongest storms are expected to
form along a Denver vorticity convergence zone (DVCZ) which has
remained nearly stationary from northern Teller County to south
central Weld County. Convection has quickly developed along this
boundary within the past hour with multiple CBs now evident on
GOES-16 visible sat imagery. RAP and HRRR presently indicate a
narrow ribbon of relatively high MLCAPE, upwards of a 1000 J/Kg,
over the southern end of this boundary. The band of t-storms
presently moving off the Front Range should interact with the
convective updrafts along the DVCZ within the next hour to
potentially produce even stronger and slower moving storms cells
capable of 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates. Cells roughly south
of I-70 could possibly produce 1.5-2.5 inches in a short period,
potentially causing flash flooding. This convection is expected
to drift east-southeast through the evening ending up in Lincoln
County by midnight, if not before. Later tonight, the influx of
drier mid-level air on the back side of the exiting upper trough
will resulting in clearing. However, this clearing will allow
radiational cooling to form areas of fog on the plains by dawn.
Areas in the thicker fog could see visibilities as low as a
quarter mile, and possibly a few sprinkles.
Friday looks drier and slightly warmer on the back side of the
departing trough with the flow aloft turning northwesterly.
However, there will be enough moisture around to combine with
daytime heating to produce widely scattered late day t-storms
mostly over the higher elevations. Temperatures during the next
24 hour will remain a few degs F below average for the date.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018
The main trend through the weekend and middle of next
week is for a warming and drying for Colorado. Initially, Broad high
pressure aloft will be building into Colorado for the weekend with a
light to moderate west to northwest flow aloft. There will still be
enough moisture and limited instability for isolated late day
showers and thunderstorms.
By early next week an upper trof will develop over the Pacific
Northwest which will result in a drier, southwest flow over
Colorado. This will result in even drier and warmer conditions,
especially from next Tuesday through Thursday. Extended guidance
through this period is showing temperatures back close to 90s on the
plains with little if any storms for any of the area. 700mb
temperatures climb into the +14 to +17c next week which support
these very warm temperatures. Pretty typical conditions for a
normally dry September, but temperatures will be above normal for
this time of year. Precipitable water trends will be down to
around a half of an inch or less during the dry period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 757 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Showers and thunderstorms have moved southeast of the Denver area,
ending the chance for precipitation. Added a tempo for quarter mile
visibility and fog late tonight and Friday morning, 11-14Z. With
many short term models showing fog, later forecasts may need to keep
in the forecast longer. Expect low clouds to linger until around
18Z once the fog lifts.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
830 PM MDT Thu Sep 6 2018
.UPDATE...
No update for the inherited short term forecast, with isolated
showers in the west and extreme southeast. AAG
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...
Low amplitude ridge exists over the region, with a weak shortwave
approaching from central ID. Some convection has developed over
our mountains but nothing has spread across the foothills yet.
Latest HRRR runs have trended weaker w/ thunderstorm activity over
the next six hours, and this is in line w/ this morning`s HREF.
That being said, dew points are seasonably high and thunderstorms
developed over the high terrain sooner than models had suggested.
So, feel some activity will spread off our western foothills by
this evening as ascent from shortwave moves into south central MT.
Erratic/gusty winds are possible near any storms, so keep a heads
up if you have outdoor plans this evening.
Another weaker shortwave will move into the area Friday. Timing of
this energy is such that we`ll see drier west winds across our
western areas by afternoon (though isold storms are expected over
the mountains and foothills), and better chance of storms will be
in our east where surface trof meets southeasterly flow and
higher moisture.
Stronger shortwave arrives Saturday bringing a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Initial PV axis actually reaches our
area early and should see some morning showers around. Shear is
limited but could see a stronger storm in our east by Saturday
afternoon. Looks like scattered activity for western/central areas
by evening, with increasing pwats and what should be wetter storms
overall. Scattered pops are warranted for Saturday evening, with
some activity persisting across our east overnight as a Pacific
front moves thru the cwa.
Temperatures will remain above normal the next two days. Some
locations will see 90 degrees Friday. Saturday should be just
slightly cooler ahead of the Saturday night frontal passage.
JKL
.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...
Models are in good agreement to end the week through the middle
of next week but diverge toward late next week. A zonal flow
pattern will be in place over the forecast area Sunday and Monday.
Some slight ridging builds Monday in response to an upper low and
trough approaching the Pacific northwest. Models keep this upper
low fairly stationary with a slight movement south along the
Washington coast through Wednesday before moving inland Thursday
with a second low approaching the Pacific northwest coast by
Thursday. This will result in a southwest flow aloft across our
forecast area Tuesday into Thursday. Pieces of energy will eject
from this upper low and get entrained within the flow aloft.
However, models take this energy across north central Montana and
keep it out of our area with the exception of our far western edge
of our forecast area from Park to Wheatland Counties. The
forecast overall looks to be mainly dry for most areas with
temperatures around normal for this time of year, with normal
right now being 78 degrees. Hooley
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR flight conditions will prevail through Friday. An isolated
thunderstorm will remain possible until 06Z, possibly bringing
erratic/gusty winds to KLVM/K3HT/KBIL. JKL/Reimer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/088 059/084 055/076 050/084 051/080 050/076 050/076
20/U 12/T 31/B 10/U 00/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 049/088 052/083 047/074 042/082 043/079 043/075 043/074
21/U 13/T 31/B 10/U 00/U 11/B 11/B
HDN 053/090 053/085 053/076 048/085 049/082 048/079 048/079
20/U 12/T 31/B 10/U 00/U 01/U 11/B
MLS 057/091 059/087 056/077 051/085 053/083 051/078 052/077
00/B 11/B 21/B 11/U 00/U 01/B 11/B
4BQ 056/090 058/088 053/079 050/085 053/084 051/081 050/078
10/U 21/B 21/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 054/089 056/086 053/078 048/081 052/083 048/078 049/075
20/U 22/T 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
SHR 050/090 052/085 049/075 046/084 047/083 046/077 047/079
21/U 12/T 31/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
850-700 mb frontogensis continues in band from Cando to Thief
River Falls this evening and region is area of surface confluence
with high to the north and northeast winds and southeast winds
with low to the southwest. Mid level moisture will continue near
this frontogenesis zone along with 850-700 mb warm advection. Thus
would expect continued shower and t-storm activity in this band
the next several hours though it should begin to wane later
tonight. Also a few t-storms/showers near Bismarck is moving east
and may hold together into parts of SE ND later tonight but
coverage is small and not in a favorable mid level frontogenesis
region. Continued to have higher pops Cando-GFK-TVF-BJI til past
06z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
A stalled frontal zone/conference zone just northwest of DVL has
acted as focus for thunderstorm initiation with WAA riding along
this baroclinic zone aloft. There have been some surprisingly robust
(however marginal) updrafts despite limited instability advertised by
RAP analysis (MU CAPE 500 J/KG). Effective shear near 30kt could be
helping support the elevated (pulsy) updrafts, with marginal severe
hail risk. Trend should be for any strong to marginally severe
storms to decrease in intensity as they spread eastward of
instability axis.
Strong signal on CAMs supports moderate shower activity at times
along/north of Highway 2, with redevelopment possible into southeast
ND late tonight. So, while there is a substantial dry layer below
800 MB, there may be enough instability/forcing to support higher
PoPs and I trended forecast in this direction. Focus for any
redevelop should tend to be due to WAA withing SE flow overriding
stalled frontal zone through the night, which would match trend for
activity to redevelop in central ND toward SE ND. By Friday most
activity should weaken (though a few sprinkles or light showers
still can`t be ruled out through the afternoon).
Regarding temperatures: Moderation of the air mass over our region
has already been underway. Cloud cover tonight will also limit
radiation cooling, so overnight lows should generally remain 50F or
warmer. Dependent on clearing Fri we should see highs in the middle
70s (a little cooler where cloud cover holds on).
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
00Z Sat - 00Z Mon
Warm advection precip is forecast for Fri night and early Sat mainly
north of Hwy 2 as upper level ridge ridge shifts east and low level
jet responds. Winds were increased a bit throughout this
entire period.
Short wave over the eastern Pacific will move into the Northern
Plains by Sun and bring a threat for thunderstorms Sat night into
Sun.
Sun night - Thu
Long wave pattern goes from zonal to more of a southwest flow aloft.
Should make for a more active weather pattern. Split flow aloft
consolidates. Long wave trough off the West Coast will sharpen
through the period. Long wave trough remains over northern Canada.
Mid level cap and 700 hpa theta-e axis will shift east across the
area Tue. Storms will be possible north of the cap is expected for
next Tue. Similar event is expected for Wed night but farther north
in the northern Red River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018
Cloud bases remain quite high in the 6-10k agl range. So VFR in
that aspect and also vsbys. But area of rain and a few storms will
affect esp GFK area thru the evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Riddle
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1016 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018
Convection is showing an overall decline, but is slower to fade
than was expected. The HRRR suggests that the thunderstorms
regenerating in southeast KY presently will also fade away over
the next few hours. In the mean time, have extended the mention
of rain in the forecast for a while longer.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018
The remnants of the tropical system reside over Arkansas this
afternoon. Per water vapor imagery. An area of deformation
extends along the spine of the Appalachians. This has led to very
little shear and very slow shower and storm movement today. The
lack of shear has really limited stronger activity today and thus,
we haven`t had a big issue with heavy rain today. Will maintain a
small chance of shower and a few storms into the evening, but
once we lose instability, we should see everything die down much
like the past several evenings. This will lead to some more river
valley fog tonight. Could see locally dense fog down in the
southwest areas where the rain has fallen today.
By tomorrow, a cold front will stall just north of the Ohio river.
This should focus the best shower and storm chances to our north.
However, enough moisture and instability remains that we should
see another round of isolated shower and storm activity. This
activity should die off once more as we lose instability tomorrow
evening with another night of valley fog for Friday night. As it
stands right now, showers and storms should erode enough in time
for Friday night festivities.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018
No significant changes to the extended. Models continue to
exhibit good agreement in solutions with respect to the overall
pattern and sequence of events. Remnants of Gordan and the
potential for heavy rain continue to be the focus of the forecast.
In general models have trended slightly slower with solutions and
sequence of events through the extended. Gordon will phase with
an approaching shortwave trough moving eastward from the Plains
Friday night through Saturday. Gordon should complete the process
of transitioning into a subtropical system by Saturday night and
then make a more aggressive move northeast through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region by the start of the new week. Additional
shortwave energy moving in from the west will tend to reinforce
some of the troughiness across the Ohio and Tenn Valley and may
slow progress of a surface frontal boundary through eastern
Kentucky until early to mid-week, or the Tue-Wed time frame.
The ECMWF, Canadian, GFS, and Parallel GFS (FV3) are showing
signs of narrowing on solutions with respect to Florence, which
now bring the system towards the Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.
Three of the four solutions bring Florence at least briefly on
shore somewhere between North Carolina and Long Island by the end
of the period or just beyond the extended window. Only the FV3
keeps Florence off shore (just).
Sensible weather features an unsettled weather pattern with the
potential of heavy rain across at least a portion of our forecast
area. Areas most likely at threat will be roughly along and north
of a line from Mount Vernon to Sandy Hook, where between 2 and
3.5 inches of rainfall will be possible. PWATs will climb to
between 1.7 and 2 inches with a surface frontal zone across the
region providing a focus for convection. This could set the stage
for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms for our more
northwestern zones. With respect to timing, Saturday night through
Monday appears to be the main window of concern, where the bulk
of rainfall could take place. Some uncertainty still exists in the
exact track, timing, and evolution of this system through the
region. In addition, with the main event still 5th period or
further out, decided to reissue and fine tune the ESF for now.
However, would not be surprised if a watch were issued within the
next forecast cycle or two. Again, at this time areas most likely
to be affected are our northeastern zones.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing over the region
this evening, but the overall trend will be for a decrease in
activity, with most of it expected to fade away by around 05Z.
Generally quiet weather is then expected until more showers and
thunderstorms develop during the day on Friday. Any of the
thunderstorms could bring IFR or worse conditions. At this time,
KSYM is the only TAF site where there is enough confidence to
make a mention of VCTS in the forecast on Friday.
In addition to the precip, fog is again expected in valleys
tonight into Friday morning. It may spread beyond valleys,
especially where significant rain occurred on Thursday evening. In
the TAFs, have allowed visibility restrictions to some extent at
all TAF sites, but confidence is low.
Outside of fog and precip, mainly VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL