Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/06/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
951 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
Main forecast problem for the evening update is clouds/pops in the
west and temperatures in the east. Mostly clear skies across
western and central ND this evening. Band of clouds in the sw/sc
remains but continues to slowly diminish as it lifts north. Warm
advection does pick up overnight and moistening of the mid levels
is noted in latest RAP soundings over western ND. Question is will
we see any precipitation. If we do it will likely be light in the
overnight hours and early morning Thursday. With only slight pops
in there now, we did keep some slight chance pops going although
not certain about any measurable precipitation. Some of the CAMS
are still depicting shower activity developing from around Beach
up through Watford City and Williston after midnight and spread
this into the north central during the morning. Used this areal
coverage as a general guide for some slight chance pops. Think
chances will improve over the north central as we go through the
day on Thursday.
The other question is temperatures tonight. Surface high currently
over the Turtle Mountains will drift slowly southeast overnight.
Dew point temperatures are currently in the 30s across much of the
west, but we do expect warm advection to increase here overnight.
Dew points are ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s over central ND
and we should see a longer duration of decent radiational cooling
here. We lowered temperatures a little over the central portion of
the state.
UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
Clear skies across most of western and central ND early this
evening. The exception being a band of mid clouds from around
Beach and Dickinson southeast to Fort Yates and Linton. Updated
sky cover to reflect this with clouds slowly eroding. We do expect
additional development later tonight in the west when warm
advection increases. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
Increasing warm air advection associated with a developing warm
front and sufficient instability will lead to increasing chances
for showers/thunderstorms, mainly northwest and north central
Thursday. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstroms exists Thursday
for northwest and north central North Dakota.
Latest visible satellite imagery shows sunny conditions north and mid
level clouds/mostly to partly cloudy conditions across southwest
and into portions of south central North Dakota. Surface high
pressure in north central ND will shift east into western Minnesota
this evening. Low level southeast to southerly winds will ensue
around the high, initiating moisture advection across western
North Dakota tonight and Thursday. Global models are hinting at
some showers across far western North Dakota late tonight into
Thursday morning. The HRRR only goes out to 11z and by that time
it shows isolated showers far west. Will give this some play and
mention a slight chance of showers west 06z-12z Thursday. Surface
low pressure and warm front develop over southeastern Montana
Thursday and Friday, which extends through central North Dakota.
This front will aid in low level convergence/lift, and with
greater instability ensuing as persistent low level southerly
winds aid in moisture/temperature advection, surface dewpoints
rise into the mid 50s. Both the NAM/GFS show weak CAPE at around
1000 J/Kg with deep layer shear between 30kt and 40kt Thursday and
Friday. As a 700mb shortwave rides atop the surface warm front
Thursday afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms across
northwest and north central. Mid level lapse rates/700-500mb
average around 7C/Km Thursday. Given the instability parameters, a
few thunderstroms could become strong, along with with the
possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm. After
collaborating with SPC, it was decided to add a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms Thursday northwest and north central. Warmer
Thursday southwest through south central (within the warm sector
of the developing warm front) with highs in the lower 80s
southwest, to mid 70s for most of central North Dakota. Highs in
the mid 60s (north of the warm front) will reside over northern
North Dakota.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
The warm front slowly advances north to the border Friday night.
In doing so, and until that happens, continued low level southerly
winds and moisture/warm air advection will drive chances for
thunderstorms along and north of the warm front. A couple mid
level shortwaves riding atop the front will also aid in ascent
maintaining chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night
through Friday. The best chances continue to reside across the
north. Potential for a few strong thunderstorms, and possibly an
isolated severe thunderstorm as the environment will be similar to
Thursday.
A strong mid level shortwave and cold front will progress from
west to east Saturday through Sunday morning. It appears central
North Dakota will remain dry through the day, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms west in the afternoon. Precipitation
will then shift across central North Dakota Saturday night. There
is some wiggle room ahead of the front for strong to possible
severe thunderstorms, with increased CAPE, but weaker deep layer
shear. So storms may be more pulse type and vertical. The weather
pattern overall remains active through at least mid week as a
longwave west coast trough evolves. This puts western/central ND
within an active/moist southwest flow aloft with periodic chances
for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
Vfr cigs/vsbys this taf period. A thinning sct/bkn mid level
cloud deck remains near KDIK this evening. Otherwise expect a skc
across the terminals this evening. Increasing clouds are expected
to develop in the west after midnight with a threat of showers
increasing at KISN between 08z and 16z Thursday. We did include a
vcsh here. KMOT will have increasing chances for morning showers
and afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow. Rest of the terminals should
have no threat of precipitation through 18z Thursday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
248 PM PDT Wed Sep 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm and dry weather conditions will
persist across the interior for the next several days. Coastal
areas will be cool and mostly cloudy with perhaps some afternoon
sunshine through the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Stratus has been covering much of the coast today.
The marine layer appeared to be relatively shallow, around 1000
feet or less with a light offshore wind component. Persistent
coastal stratus will be around for the next couple of days as
north to northwesterly winds slowly return to the nearshore
waters. Confidence is not high there will be much clearing or
sunshine on Thursday except in the coastal river valleys. High
resolution models indicate higher chances for clearing south of
Cape Mendocino on Friday as northerly winds increase offshore.
Temperature trends were by means definitive today. As of 2pm,
some sites susceptible to marine air intrusion have been 5 to 10F
cooler. Meanwhile, most interior sites were about the same as the
day before to a few degrees warmer. Confidence is not high there
will be substantial cooling over the two days, Thursday and
Friday. Latest statistical guidance as well as all the models
indicates subtle warming through Friday as a broad ridge aloft
builds offshore. Granted we will not have a pronounced offshore
flow pattern to suppress the marine air from trickling into the
coastal river valleys.
A couple of dry cold front will pass across the area heading into
the weekend and into the early portion of next week. The first
one should knock interior temperatures down this weekend to
around normal. Temperatures in the interior will likely trend
below normal early to mid next week behind the second front.
No rain is expected with any of these fronts. Drizzle with be
a possibility through. These fronts may eventually disrupt or
completely wipe out the marine layer for greater sunshine at
the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...North Coast weather remained nearly static as
stratus continued to engulf much of the immediate and nearby
coastal areas. One notable difference from yesterday was that by
early/mid-morning, skies were mostly clear at ACV and CEC except
for a layer of smoke at CEC. Overnight IFR/LIFR clouds besieged
the coast and continued into the afternoon today, assisted by
several eddys offshore. A late morning CEC pirep reported cloud
tops less than 1000 feet with a semi- diffuse smoke layer above.
Inland areas: Clear skies prevailed and will continue so, although
local Vis smoke/haze (FU/HZ) restrictions possible in the morning
again due to wildfires. Low clouds moved within a few miles of
UKI, but stayed south of the airport. Stratus advection for
Thursday seems unlikely considering today. However looking at the
HRRR SFC RH, at least few to scattered stratus is possible (with a
south flow). /TA
&&
.MARINE...issued at 327 AM PDT Wed Sep 5 2018. The surface pressure
gradient along the coast is forecast to weaken during the next 12
hours, which will lead to the dissipation of gusty north winds
and steep wind waves by Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, several
days of relatively calm marine conditions will be followed by a
strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting in the
redevelopment of small craft winds/waves over the southern coastal
waters. Otherwise, a 2-4 foot southerly swell oscillating between
a period of 10 to 20 seconds will spread north across the waters
during the next seven days.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until
5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
814 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
.UPDATE...
A moist atmosphere remains in places across South Central Texas, with
00Z upper air sounding data showing precipitable water values over 2"
at both CRP and DRT. Ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity through
portions of the Hill Country is indicated by HREF and HRRR to
decrease in coverage during the late evening hours. Re-development
is possible of showers and storms overnight, favoring western areas
of the Hill Country and Rio Grande, closer to a weak mid level
inverted trough and better low level flow. Re-configured evening PoPs
based on current radar trends and overnight PoPs based on forecast
thinking above.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018/
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the area.
Maintaining VCSH for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF to accommodate continued
development due to colliding outflow boundaries, before weakening and
dissipating this evening after sunset. MVFR ceilings returning
overnight and into the morning before another round of shower
development starts tomorrow afternoon. Surface boundary nearing KDRT
tomorrow will aide in further shower development.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The upper air analysis this morning showed a trough over the
southwestern states with a ridge over the eastern half of the
country. The mid-level flow is very weak. The surface pressure
gradient is not well defined and winds were light and variable across
our CWA. The weak upper level flow will continue during this period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region
through this period. PW will remain high and there will be pockets of
locally heavy rain possible.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper pattern will remain stagnant into the beginning of next
week. This will mean continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms
into the weekend. A weak surface boundary will move down through
north Texas and toward our CWA. This may provide better focus for
convection to develop and perhaps a better chance for heavy rain over
the weekend. The WPC seven day rainfall totals are between 2 and 4
inches of rain across our CWA with the higher amounts out west.
Locally heavy rain will be possible each day and could lead to some
flooding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 93 75 91 74 / 40 50 40 60 50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 93 74 91 73 / 30 40 40 60 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 92 73 91 73 / 20 40 40 60 50
Burnet Muni Airport 73 90 72 88 72 / 80 60 50 70 50
Del Rio Intl Airport 75 86 73 86 73 / 40 60 60 70 60
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 93 73 90 72 / 60 50 50 60 50
Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 73 89 73 / 40 50 50 60 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 92 73 90 73 / 20 40 40 60 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 95 74 92 74 / 20 40 30 60 40
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 91 75 90 74 / 20 50 40 60 50
Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 75 90 75 / 20 50 50 60 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...YB
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
908 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
...GORDON CONTINUES WEAKENING AND TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Local radar showed a band of very heavy rainfall over east central
Mississippi associated with Tropical Depression Gordon which was
noted over Humphreys county at 900PM. This band extended north
from western Newton county and curled to the northwest across
Grenada county. A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for a
portion of the line so the Flash Flood Watch has been extended
until midnight for the eastern counties within the warning. T.D.
Gordon will continue tracking slowly to the northwest tonight and
additional bands of heavy rainfall will be possible especially
closer to the Interstate 55 corridor and across the northern
portions of the delta. The tornado threat has diminished for the
remainder of tonight. Pops have been lowered across the southwest
half of the area the remainder of the night as well. Temperatures
were generally on track. /22/
Prior discussion below:
Rest of this evening & tonight through Thursday: Overall main
focus in the near term continues to be the severe threat through
late afternoon to early evening & then the heavy rain & flash
flooding threat overnight.
Tropical Depression Gordon has continue to slowly drift across the
area today, leading to slow west-northwest progression. Due to the
very slow westward movement of the remnants of Gordon, expect
continued potential for brief tornadoes & gusty showers. Some
storms have exhibited these features already this afternoon so
will have to continue to monitor for any features as there is
~30kts effective bulk shear & ~150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH. In
addition, with high anomalous PWs & any training or convergent
feeder bands, some heavy rain & flash flooding potential will
continue into the evening. Expect these storms to slowly weaken
somewhat into the evening but the flash flooding potential to
continue into the overnight hours.
Expect remnants of Gordon to only slowly drift to the northwest
overnight, leading to continued moisture feed & transport with
nearly 340-345K+ 850 & 925mb Theta E. CAM & HREF guidance has
slowly begun to back off somewhat on the overall totals. HRRR
continues to show the convergent axis somewhere near & west of the
I-55 corridor while some other guidance is more confined to a
localized area. Still totals in some CAM/HREF guidance are in the
3-5 inch range. Right now, overall with high PWs & good moisture
convergence, it is hard to overall paint the exact area of heavy
rain. But it looks as though as Gordon slowly drifts northwest
into the ArklaMiss Delta overnight, convergence along the north &
eastern side could help rainfall totals pile up in these feeder
bands. Therefore, continued mention of 2-4 inches with locally
higher amounts being possible. Continued to advertise the
"Elevated" in the HWO/Graphics & Flash Flood watch for the Delta &
slowly drifting northwest into the overnight & early morning
hours on Thursday. Will have to monitor if that needs to be
expanded or not.
With high moisture lingering in the region, expect high rain
chances & lower temperatures towards raw guidance again on
Thursday. Expect some localized heavy rain potential to remain
across the ArkLaMiss Delta into midday while more storms will
redevelop into the afternoon. Right now, will have to keep a close
eye on any areas that received any heavier rainfall overnight &
into the morning. But with moisture convergence & overall column
of moisture depth decreasing, opted to not mention anything for
flash flooding in the graphics & HWO for now. In addition, shear
is somewhat relaxing but there could be around 15-20kts 0-2km &
0-3km bulk shear & slightly better lapse rates, couldn`t rule out
a couple of stronger storms again on Thursday. However, tornado
potential remains to look less likely than today. /DC/
Thursday night through mid week next week:
By Thursday night, the remnants of Gordon will be well west of the
ArkLaMiss where it will begin to merge with an approaching shortwave
as it crosses the Plains. A left over convergence axis associated
with the remnants of Gordon will still exist over the western
portions of the region on Friday. This along would deep available
moisture will result in developing showers and storms mainly along
and west of the MS River.
As we get into the weekend, a front associated with the shortwave
that Gordon assimilated will begin to approach the region from the
west. The front is expected to move into the region on Sunday before
stalling. This frontal boundary will serve as a focus for showers
and storms through at least mid week. The best coverage of storms
will exist during the day time each day. Rain and storms will hold
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Tropical Depression Gordon was noted on radar mid way between HKS
and GLH at 2330Z. Wind gusts have died down but widely scattered
SHRA were wrapping around the center and wl result in IFR/LIFR
conds at TAF sites tonight. Otherwise, MVFR cigs wl lower to
IFR/LIFR after midnight along with vsby restrictions. These conds
wl cont through 15Z Thu morning before gradually improving to VFR
conds by 21Z. Numerous SHRA with isold TSRA are expected over the
nw Thu aftn with scattered SHRA and isold TSRA expected elsewhere.
/22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 72 86 71 90 / 63 57 28 32
Meridian 72 87 71 90 / 42 58 15 35
Vicksburg 71 87 72 91 / 23 64 46 49
Hattiesburg 73 86 71 89 / 39 70 19 42
Natchez 71 88 72 89 / 24 66 47 55
Greenville 72 84 71 88 / 84 84 48 47
Greenwood 72 85 72 90 / 78 64 30 39
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ032-037-038-
043>045-051.
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ019-025>028-035-
036-040>042.
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ018-034.
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009.
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
JPM3/22/DC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
831 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018
.UPDATE...
The showers and thunderstorms that been occurring over the
western areas of South Florida have pushed off into the offshore
Gulf waters this evening. The HRRR along with the other short
range models are showing that some showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the Atlantic waters overnight and push into the east
coast metro areas mainly after midnight,as the tropical wave and
upper level low approaches South Florida. Therefore, will continue
with the low end chance of showers and a few thunderstorms for
the east coast metro areas for mainly after midnight tonight.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018/
AVIATION...
An evening lull in convection will eventually give way to
increasing convection over the Atlantic waters overnight which
could impact the east coast terminals through the morning.
Terminals directly impacted by convection could have brief bouts
of sub-VFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage late morning into the afternoon. Generally
easterly flow with some gusty variability around convection.
Short-fused amendments will be necessary with convection.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018/
.SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...
.MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY...
DISCUSSION...
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
An upper level low will move westward from the Western Atlantic
waters through South Florida late Thursday into Friday, as a
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean sea extending northward
into southern Bahamas moves west northwest across the region. This
will bring in deeper moisture to South Florida for late this
week. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected across South Florida for Thursday into Friday.
The 500 mb temps will also be cooling down to -9 to -10C over
South Florida late Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
This will allow for some strong storms to develop over the region
especially between Thursday afternoon into Friday. The primary
impacts from the strong storms will be gusty winds, hail, and
frequent lightning strikes.
* THIS WEEKEND
Both the upper level low and the tropical wave will continue to
move west northwest into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, as the
high over the Western Atlantic waters weakens. This will allow for
the steering flow to be more southerly over South Florida keeping
the deeper tropical moisture in place. Therefore, the scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region
this weekend with the best coverage over the Lake Okeechobee area.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
The high will then rebuild into South Florida for early next week
allowing for the easterly wind flow to return to the region. This
will lead to more of the night time and morning showers and thunderstorms
along the east coast. and afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms interior and west coast.
MARINE...
The winds will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots tonight into Thursday
before decreasing to 10 knots or less Thursday night into Friday.
The winds will then become southerly at 10 knots or less this
weekend. This will keep the seas at 3 feet or less in the Atlantic
waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters through the weekend.
BEACH FORECAST...
The threat of rip currents will continue through Thursday before
decreasing Friday into the weekend along the east coast beaches
of South Florida due to the decrease in the wind speeds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 90 78 89 77 / 20 20 50 30
Fort Lauderdale 89 80 88 79 / 20 30 50 30
Miami 91 79 89 78 / 20 20 50 30
Naples 92 76 90 75 / 60 10 60 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...54/BNB
MARINE...54/BNB
AVIATION...02/RAG
BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
821 PM PDT Wed Sep 5 2018
.DISCUSSION...06/00Z NAM in.
Some cumulus developed over the Cascades around Crater Lake,
extending north to northeast to the Chemult area. Cumulus also
developed over Modoc and Lake counties, but no lightning or
precipitation was recorded. Those clouds are now dissipating.
Other than that, there are areas of marine stratus along the coast
and over the near shore coastal waters, and, of course, smoke from
area wildfires.
As far as smoke goes, the HRRR Smoke Model is indicating a
significant increase in smoke across eastern Douglas, Josephine,
Jackson, Klamath, and northeastern Siskiyou counties this evening,
with smoke settling into the valleys from Grants Pass to Ashland
to Yreka to Klamath Falls by early Thursday morning. Guidance
suggests the smoke will thin some Thursday before another round
comes in on northwest winds Thursday afternoon and evening. There
will be cooler temperatures and a greater marine influence across
the area Friday afternoon into this weekend, so the smoke will
probably begin to thin out some then.
Southwest flow aloft has developed over the Pacific Northwest due
to a long wave trough digging offshore. This trough will remain
out there through at least early next week, and short waves
ejecting from the trough will move onshore with most of the energy
directed north of the Medford CWA.
Temperatures will cool into Friday, and it will remain dry except
for possibly some drizzle along the coast and over the coastal
waters. Winds will be gusty east of the Cascades in the afternoons
and evenings.
The first significant short wave will move onshore Friday night,
and it will push a weak front onshore with it. This won`t bring
much in the way of precipitation to the area, and the bulk of what
there is of it will fall along the north coast and the northern
portion of the Umpqua Basin Friday night into Saturday morning.
After that, there will be another stretch of dry weather through
the rest of the weekend.
The next significant short wave will move onshore Sunday night
into Monday, and it looks to be similar to the Friday night front
in terms of precipitation amounts and coverage.
Extended discussion from the Wednesday afternoon AFD...Monday
through the week. Confidence is high that we will see a broad low
pressure trough build into the Pacific Northwest early next week,
lowering temperatures to below normal values beginning about
Tuesday. The precipitation portion of the forecast, as is usually
the situation, is much less certain. However, it does appear that
some weak fronts will bring light amounts to Coos and Douglas
counties early next week. Mid-late week rain chances increase
south and east of there, but model guidance is very uncertain in
the details. Thus, for now, through Wednesday probabilities of
rain in the forecast are low. Expect these, most likely, will
increase as we move into the future and confidence grows in the
details. The pattern is certainly looking increasingly favorable
for precipitation to occur mid-late next week. -Lutz
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06/00Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR will prevail
from Cape Blanco southward early this evening, then expand
northward to fill in along the entire coast late this evening
into Thursday morning. The marine layer is pretty shallow, so not
expecting it to reach Roseburg, but some locations in the lower
Umpqua Valley from Elkton to Reedsport and also the Coquille Valley
near Powers will likely end up with IFR/LIFR. Lower conditions
should improve to VFR Thursday afternoon, but may have difficulty
breaking along portions of the immediate coast.
VFR will prevail inland, however, wildfire smoke will limit
visibility to MVFR/IFR in some areas, especially near the Klondike,
Miles, Natchez and now Delta fires. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 820 PM PDT Wednesday, 5 September 2018...Lighter
winds and lower seas are expected tonight. The small craft advisory
for hazardous seas has been cancelled since seas have lowered to 5
feet or less. Relatively light winds and low seas are expected
Thursday through Friday as high pressure moves over the waters. A
weak frontal system dissipates over the waters Friday night, and
this will be followed by a series of weak fronts this weekend into
early next week. As a result, winds will be variable and relatively
light with continued low seas. Northwest swell could increase early
next week. -Spilde
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 800 PM PDT Wednesday 5 Sep 2018...Hot
and dry conditions with breezy afternoon winds will continue
through Friday. Although it will continue to be dry, winds won`t
be quite as strong Thursday afternoon as it was Wednesday, so
conditions won`t be as critical. Winds will increase again on
Friday afternoon ahead of an incoming dry front, but will still be
less than what it was Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions
are not forecast at this time. A dry cold front will move through
Friday night into Saturday morning. Models are keeping
precipitation mainly north of the area, so there is only a slight
chance of light rain along the coast north of Cape Blanco and in
the far northern portions of FWZ 616 and 617.
Temperatures will continue to cool behind this front through the
weekend, and even more so into early next week. Models have been
fairly consistent in bringing a trough over the PacNW early next
week and depending on how far south the trough ends up, there
could be increased chances of precipitation. While confidence is
low in the details, confidence is increasing that there will be a
transition to a cooler and possibly wetter weather pattern by
this time next week.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas
until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-376.
$$
15/15/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Most of the precipitation has dissipated this evening. The latest
runs of the HRRR and NAM continue to suggest the potential for
redevelopment overnight across mainly northeast Oklahoma, and this
is covered well in the current forecast. The only change to the
forecast is to start the post 03Z pops now, with all other
elements tracking well at this time.
Update on the way.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
PLATE