Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/30/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
902 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front tonight, will bring cooler temperatures and
lower humidity, for the end of the week and the start of the
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms tonight, associated with the
frontal zone, will generally diminish in coverage Thursday and
Friday, as high pressure builds down from eastern Canada.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9 pm update...
Just minor updates. Temperatures dropped around 10 degrees with
the rain. Where they have rain temperatures won`t change much
rest of the night. Across the southeast temperatures have fallen
enough so that heat indices have fallen out of the 90s. Let the
heat advisory expire on time. Tomorrow will be cooler and well
below criteria. Thunderstorms from Madison to Steuben Counties
will continue pushing east. Models have it weakening in the next
few hours but not much sign of that yet. Biggest threat now
will be rainfall as multiple thunderstorms go over the same
areas.
130 pm update... As expected, showers and thunderstorms are
forming over western/northern NY early this afternoon, tied to
lake convergence boundaries and an incoming surface trough.
Convection allowing models remain consistent in bringing
showers/storms across our CNY zones through early evening, with
a general diminishing trend in coverage/intensity towards/after
midnight.
ML CAPE and DCAPE of both 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, along
with effective shear of 30-35 kt across our northern zones,
suggest potential strong wind gusts. The main limiting factors
remain warm mid-level temperatures/poor lapse rates, as the best
short-wave support/height falls shift across Ontario and Quebec.
HRRR depictions also bring some locally heavy rain across parts
of CNY from about 23-02z this evening. We`ll continue to
monitor, and have strong gusty wind and heavy downpour potential
mentioned in our gridded forecasts.
Since the actual cold front is not expected to come through
until the pre-dawn period, it will be another muggy night, with
lows only in the mid 60s-lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
140 pm update... Overall, a quieter period is foreseen.
Above mentioned cold front will settle into the mid-Atlantic
region by later Thursday, before slowly returning northward and
washing out Friday. Any lingering showers/thunderstorms should
be relegated to our NEPA zones and Sullivan County NY, lessening
as the day wears on. It will also be cooler and noticeably less
humid, with highs in the 70s-lower 80s.
Thursday night looks mainly dry, under partly-mostly cloudy
skies, with lows by daybreak in the 50s-lower 60s.
Friday-Friday night, as surface high pressure shifts towards the
New England coast, a low-level southeast flow will set up,
transporting some moisture back towards CNY/NEPA. Since our
region will reside near the southern edge of the westerlies with
likely short-wave passages from time to time, we`ve introduced
widely separated showers/thunderstorms back into the forecast.
Temperatures will not be oppressive, with highs Friday in the
70s, and lows Friday night in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 pm update...
Large dome of high pressure will build over the central eastern
seaboard this weekend and early next week. The nrn edge of the
ridge will set up somewhere across the sern Great Lakes into New
England. A series of short waves will ride ewd along the
periphery of the ridge during this time and interact with an
increasingly unstable air mass to produce showers and
thunderstorms. The most favorable area for convection will
likely be across the nrn tier of counties, but cannot be ruled
out anywhere at this point. The most favorable time for
precipitation is expected to be during the afternoon and evening
hours pretty much every day Saturday through Tuesday...during
peak heating when the boundary layer is most unstable.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions persist this evening with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms dropping conditions to IFR for brief
periods of time. Should continue to see the convection diminish
in intensity after the cold front passes later this evening.
Will likely see low clouds and fog with MVFR/Alternate Required
conditions developing after 06Z in the NYS terminals. Fog and
clouds lift after 14Z...with VFR conditions through 00Z Friday.
Light west winds around 5 kt or less tonight...becoming nw
around 5 to 10 kt Thursday afternoon.
Outlook...
Thursday night through Friday...Main VFR.
Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. May see restrictions
in showers and storms.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT/RRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
911 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from Quebec will cross the northern Maine this
evening. A trailing cold front will move southward towards the
coast late tonight into Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air
will move into the area later Thursday and Friday as Canadian
high pressure builds southward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:12 pm update: In collaboration with SPC and WFO Gray we
dropped the severe thunderstorm watch around 8:30 pm this
evening. There are still a few thunderstorms in the FA, mainly
in the Bangor Region and in southeast Aroostook County. A cold
front is now pushing into the Saint John Valley with a narrow
line of showers, and the front will sweep down to the Downeast
Coast by morning. Removed any severe weather mention, but did
maintain heavy rain wording for the next few hours. Noted that the
KCAR sounding precipitable water was 1.98" this evening and we had a
report of 1.4" of rain at Crystal in just 12 minutes earlier this
evening. The main update at this time was to the PoPs to account for
what is currently being observed on radar along with the expected
trends the remainder of the night.
Previous discussion:
SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Northern
Somerset, Piscataquis and Penobscot County until 11 PM.
Radar showed activity apchg the western ME border running into
the region where the latest RAP showed MUCAPE of 1500+ joules
w/0-6km bulk shear of 50 kts. Meso analysis continues to point
to the best area of Severe potential to be across the
Piscataquis and Mount Katahdin region into the Penobscot region.
This is not without saying that portions of north Maine such as
Clayton Lake into Shin Pond. The RAP and the latest LAP
soundings showed potential for cells to have Supercell structure
w/good rotation. Some storms could deviate to the right showing
potential for tornadic potential. Sfc warm front was lifting
nne as dewpoints were climbing. Heat index values reached 90-95
across portions of interior Downeast thanks to more heating and
dewpoints around 70. As clouds move in later, readings will drop
off. One other note to make is that PWs are nearing 2" and
w/cells possibly aligning w/wsw flow aloft leading to training
w/heavy rain. This will need to be assessed. Cold front is
slated to push across the region later in the evening as sfc low
rides across northern ME. There appears to be a decent amount
of rain w/0.25 to 0.50 inches. across portions of western and
northern areas. Cooler and drier air to follow behind the front
overnight into early Thursday morning. The downeast region will
be the last to see this drier and cooler air.
Thursday will definitely have a much different feel to the day
w/breezy conditions and much cooler temps. Might see some
stratocumulus development through the day but any shower
activity will be in the morning. Daytime temps will run into the
upper 60s to lower 70s north and west w/central and Downeast
areas in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds through the period. On Friday night, lows
will dip to the upper 30s to lower 40s in the Allagash with a
steep radiation inversion, but remain in the mid to upper 50s
for Bangor and the coast as winds are expected to prevent as
steep of an inversion. With the high to the north, H925 to H850
moisture moving eastward is always a concern. At this time, will
add some clouds along the coast Friday morning, but clear it out
by afternoon. Highs will be mostly in the lower 70s. On Friday
night, all areas should radiate well with widespread lows in the
40s. The high continues to strengthen in the Canadian Maritimes
into Saturday. H850 temps look slightly warmer on
Saturday...supporting surface highs creeping back to the low to
mid 70s. Overall H850 moisture looks more widespread on Saturday
and will go with partly sunny for most of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast for the latter half of the weekend and into next week
remains similar to previous shift`s thoughts. High pressure
remains parked off the coast of North Carolina with anticyclonic
flow aloft guiding shortwave disturbances around it. These will
intermittently train across Maine. Lingering showers Saturday
night cross central ME and Downeast. Another shortwave boundary
approaches Sunday, crossing Monday/Monday night with GFS and
ECMWF most aggressive, while the GEM is weaker in precipitation
coverage. Kept PoPs slight to low chance. High pressure slides
north of the region Wednesday, with continued slight chances of
showers.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR at the Downeast terminals tonight and
Thursday with briefly lower conditions possible in any showers
and thunderstorms. Conditions will lower to IFR to MVFR at the
northern terminals late this evening and overnight, but will
improve to high end MVFR to VFR Thursday morning.
SHORT TERM: VFR into Sunday w/a brief period of MVFR by Sunday
morning mainly for KBGR and KBHB.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No headlines w/winds 5 to 10 kts tonight picking up
to 10-15 kts and veering to the nnw as the front drops across
the waters Thursday morning. Seas will stay around 2-3 ft.
SHORT TERM: No headlines expected for this term. Winds will drop
off by Friday to 5 to 10 kt as high pres moves in and look like
they will hold that way into Sunday. Seas will remain 2-3 ft.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...Cornwell
Aviation...CB/Hewitt/MCW
Marine...CB/Hewitt/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1133 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast into
Pennsylvania tonight and move very slowly to the south on
Thursday. The front will stall out just south of the region
Friday and Saturday, then return north as a warm front late in
the weekend. A building subtropical ridge is expected over the
Mid Atlantic region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Winds along the lakeshore are srly now with real wind shift now
somewhere over the lake. Big line of showers is breaking up as
they weaken considerably. Any clearing will likely be brief in
the NW, with lower clouds across the ponds and higher clouds
streaming in from the southwest. Really low clouds in GKJ and
JHW. The lone cell in srn Franklin Co has moved thru Adams Co
and has started to break up, but is still going into York, now.
All is well in the general scheme of the forecast. Only some
tweaks to very near- term POPs and Wx.
Prev...
Quick hitter of strong to severe storms this evening. Loss of
heating is weakening things as the storms also drop into much
lower shear. HRRR, HREF, RAP all break this stuff up quickly,
generally before 10 PM. All guidance also indicates a very low
chc of a shower through the night over the NW/mtns. After some
brief clearing behind this line of showers/storms, clouds will
move into the NW, and may not leave for quite a while. It will
be muggy overnight as wind will be light, even for those areas
that manage to clear. Dewpoints stay in the upper 60s and lower
70s over most of the area. Perhaps only the NW will get below
65F dewpoint, but they`ll have the clouds.
Prev...
Another very warm and uncomfortably humid late summer afternoon
across central PA. Convection has been inhibited by warm temps
aloft and a ribbon of relatively lower pwats over the
Alleghenies keeping the day rain-free for most. Saw a lone
shower cell fire over the Lower Susq at mid afternoon before
collapsing within 30-45 minutes.
The best chance of showers/storms will come this evening across
the northwest counties as slowly approaching cold front and
prefrontal lake breeze boundary push into my northwest counties.
Sufficient mid level flow and shear noted ahead of this feature
may still support an isolated stronger storm this evening over
the northwest. In addition, a few rogue cells may reach into the
Laurel Highlands but these are increasingly encountering warmer
mid levels and will likely dissipate before reaching my area.
Heat Advisory remains in effect for our Susq Valley and Scent
Zones through this evening.
After the evening diurnal maximum, expect a broken line or two
of showers with isold tsra to be tracking through the northwest
and central mountains late tonight into the pre dawn hours
Thursday as the front slowly advances. Aside from an isolated
evening shower or storm, the east and south should remain dry
overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Secondary surge of cooler air will push the stalling sfc front
into my southeastern counties on Thursday morning through
midday. Although the large scale forcing is less than
impressive, diurnal heating of moist/unstable air mass is likely
to support scattered convection across the southern counties
during the late morning and afternoon. Shear is meager, so
limited threat of organized severe weather at this time.
The most pronounced cooling Thursday will be across the
northwest mountains, where model soundings suggest the day will
begin with upsloping stratus/patchy drizzle. Brightening skies
are expected by afternoon, but model blends only indicating
highs in the low 70s. Meanwhile, warm and humid conditions are
likely to persist ahead of secondary cold front with highs in
the mid to upper 80s over the Lower Susq Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The medium range guidance has the high continuing to be pushed
off shore as a shallow trough moves through and should bring
break from the heat Friday and Saturday. High pressure tracking
across New England will push frontal boundary south of the
region and result in a cooler southeast flow off the Atlantic.
Model soundings indicate there will be a fair amount of cloud
cover both days, along with the chance of showers, primarily in
the region of best orographic forcing over the south central
mountains/Laurels.
Both the 12Z NAEFS and ECENS indicate a return to very warm and
humid conditions Sunday through Tuesday, as surface high drifts
southeast off the east coast, allowing the stalled frontal
boundary to lift north as a warm front. A subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic is progged to retrograde, taking up
residence over the Mid Atlantic coast by early next week. Under
the influence of this feature, expect above normal temperatures,
high humidity and a daily chance of PM convection.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Late evening update, minor adjustments for weakening line
of showers and storms.
Earlier discussion below.
Weakening line of showers and storms to the west. Did push
thunder into JST, AOO, UNV, and IPT for 00Z TAF package.
Left out of MDT and LNS.
Main issue late tonight into Thursday morning will be low
clouds and fog.
Expect conditions to improve by late morning or early afternoon
on Thursday.
Slightly cooler and less humid across the north. Thus only have
showers in for the southeast, where front is likely to stall.
.Outlook...
Fri...AM restrictions (as low as IFR or LIFR) in fog/stratus,
then VFR.
Sat...MVFR cigs with chc -shra and areas of drizzle.
Sun...Chance of showers and storms.
Mon...Still a chance of showers and storms.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
809 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
...Short Term Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Sent a forecast update to remove the drizzle from the forecast
for tomorrow morning. Still expecting fog and stratus to move into
the area, but forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR make me
doubtful that near-surface moisture will become deep enough for
drizzle before increasing winds begin to mix out the boundary
layer.
Also made minor tweaks to shower/thunderstorm chances tonight and
tomorrow morning. HRRR and NAMnest keep activity southeast of the
area, so I`ve restricted PoPs to only our Kansas counties for a
short window from 5-9am.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Today has been the transition day between the post frontal/cooler
conditions Monday and the return of more humid and warmer air for
the latter part of the workweek. The pattern aloft featured
fairly zonal flow across the CONUS, while at the surface, high
pressure was centered in east central Nebraska.
As we head into tonight, the surface ridge axis will migrate
eastward, allowing for return flow of southerly winds. This will
draw moisture northward with dewpoints climbing back into the 60s
Thursday. Low cloud cover is expected to develop and spread north
overnight and hold firm through at least the morning on Thursday,
with some gradually clearing southwest to northeast. This being
said, some models hold onto clouds in our far northeast through
the day and some areas may not see much sun before dark. Have
added patchy fog/drizzle to the forecast late tonight into
Thursday morning with the increasing low level moisture and lift.
Precip chances are not overly high and definitely not widespread,
however shower and isolated storm development is not out of the
question on the nose of the low level jet in our southeast zones
late tonight, with small chances for a hit or miss shower/storm
carrying into Thursday in the warm air advection regime.
Cloud cover could impact high temperatures Thursday and have lowered
readings in our eastern areas where clouds will be slower to depart.
As stated above it could be a late day warmup given timing of cloud
departure, with 70s expected in our east and 80s in the
south/west.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Precip chances shift east Thursday night as the axis of the low
level jet orients towards the Missouri River. Friday is still
shaping up to be the warmest of the week with highs near or in the
90s ahead of an approaching cold front, while the pattern aloft
transitions southwest ahead of an upstream trough. Friday will also
be noticeably humid with dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F
combining with the warm temps to produce head indices in the
mid/upper 90s in the afternoon/early evening.
The surface trough and cold front remain to our west through the day
Friday, then chances for storms return Friday night as the cold
front arrives. This frontal boundary will be the focus for
showers/storms into the Labor Day holiday weekend with the better
chances for convection expected in the late day/overnight hours
aided by a strong low level jet. Look for temps to cool back to
more seasonal readings by Saturday behind the front with readings
forecast in the low/mid 80s through Monday.
Next week the pattern continues to favor west/southwest flow aloft
with intermittent chances for storms continuing due to disturbances
in the flow and boundaries in the area. The pattern looks to change
around the middle of the week, trending cooler and wetter with a
arrival of a stronger cold front associated with a Canadian upper
trough.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Expect stratus to move into the area around dawn on Thursday.
IFR ceilings are likely. Short-term models are also indicating a
threat for fog, mist, or possibly light drizzle for a brief period
on the leading edge of the stratus. This reduced visibility should
be relatively brief, and will end as winds pick up by mid morning.
Low clouds will continue to be the main impact into the afternoon,
with ceilings only slowly rising and scattering out by Thursday
evening.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
623 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Latest high resolution guidance is showing a significant increase
low level moisture across the area after midnight. This will lead
to fog developing and spreading across much of the area. The fog
will continue through the morning hours on Thursday. The great
coverage of fog and best chance of dense fog will be along and
west of the Colorado border. In addition to the fog am expecting
skies to become mostly cloudy to cloudy.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Overview: The Tri-State area will remain at the southern fringe
of the westerlies -- on the northern periphery of an upper level
ridge over TX and the Desert SW.
Today: Isolated convection has developed in far western NE (north
of Kimball) this afternoon, presumably in association with low-
level upslope flow and weak DPVA attendant a small amplitude wave
at 300 mb (per 20Z SPC mesoanalysis). Expect the aforementioned
convection to remain isolated and eventually weaken/dissipate as
activity progresses east into an increasingly hostile
thermodynamic environment.
Tonight: Airmass modification will begin in earnest tonight as
high pressure shifts northeast from Iowa to the Great Lakes and
southerly return flow strengthens over the High Plains.
Strengthening warm advection will aid in moderate nocturnal
destabilization overnight as increasingly rich low-level moisture
advects beneath a pristine EML (H7-H5 lapse rates 8-9 C/km). HRRR
and NAM NEST simulated reflectivity forecasts suggest that
elevated convection may develop east of Highway 83 between
09-12Z Thu morning -- coincident with the strongest low-level
warm advection in northwest KS -- though the best forcing (and
best overall potential for convection) should be along/east of
Highway 283.
Thu-Thu night: Any elevated convection that develops Thu morning
should shift E/NE away from the Tri-State area during the day --
in concert with the strongest low-level warm advection. Expect dry
conditions to prevail otherwise, with noticeably warmer highs in
the upper 80s (east/northeast) to lower 90s (west/southwest) and
lows ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s, warmest in the east.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
The forecast period begins with a weak synoptic pattern. The jet
stream is largely confined to Canada with a weak jet finger entering
the CONUS through central California and flowing over the forecast
area before terminating in Iowa. Two large high height circulations
are noted, one off the New England coast and another over Texas.
This is creating a large area of confluence over the Central
CONUS. Subsequently, an area of upper-level divergence exists over
the border SD/NE over where a low pressure circulation has
formed.
Frontogenesis has occurred off the low circulation and as of Friday
morning, a relatively weak cold front approaches the area from the
north. With the Gulf of Mexico being open, southerly flow has
created a notable dew point gradient over Kansas and Nebraska. The
front will tap into the available moisture and set off showers and
thunderstorms Friday evening and every subsequent evening thereafter
as it becomes stationary and hovers over the forecast area before
receding north by Monday evening. It is noteworthy that the
theta-e gradient also recedes along with the frontal boundary and
continues to recede westward throughout the forecast period.
Friday: Precipitation begins in the evening with chances hovering
around 20% with higher PoPs NE of the forecast area. Showers and
storms are more likely and will be stronger in the northeastern
counties. SBCape gradient increases in intensity up to 3800 j/kg
according to the GFS and over 4800 j/kg according the NAM in the NE
trajectory as well as the 0-6km bulk shear which is projected at up
to 45 kt. GFS soundings indicate DCape over 1400 j/kg and NAM soundings
estimate it at almost 1800 j/kg. Precipitable water is also high with
both models agreeing at just under 1". At this time low confidence
remains in forecasting any severe cells, however, based on the
aforementioned information, this should be further investigated
with subsequent model runs to see if severe criteria still exists.
Saturday: Most of the day will be wet with storms tapering off
due to diurnal cooling and reigniting with diurnal heating as the
boundary is now forecasted to become stationary and mid-level
disturbances move over the area. SBCape values and PW values
increase for Saturday`s convection.
Sunday-Wednesday: The pattern will remain very similar with subtle
differences in timing of the onset of precip which intensifies in
the afternoon and evening hours. Showers/TStorms will likely
diurnally driven until further notice.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 610 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
For Kgld, south winds of 8 to 13 knots will continue through
Thursday morning. Around 09z and continuing until 16z mvfr
conditions are expected due to fog and low ceilings. After 16z vfr
conditions will return. At 18z, the southwest winds near 7 knots
will continue until 21z when they shift to the southeast at 8
knots.
For Kmck, vfr conditions and southeast winds near 9 knots are
expected through 12z. At 12z the winds will shift slightly to the
south as mvfr ceilings will develop at the site. The mvfr with
occasional ifr conditions are expected into early afternoon. At
20z, south winds near 7 knots and vfr conditions are expected and
will continue through the end of the period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...SANDERSON
AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
943 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest regional radar/satellite showing showers/thunderstorms
across much of the northeastern half of the CWA. Convection
should start to die down over time as the boundary layer
stabilizes. Dew points are forecast to hover around 70, which
will make for a muggy overnight. After midnight, included some
patchy fog in the Hattiesburg area which should fill in a bit more
with the moisture-rich soil from recent rainfall. We may have to
watch that area for possible dense fog, as well.
For tomorrow, high pressure centered just off the North Carolina
coast will dominate the weather, with temps again getting into the
upper 80s to low 90s. HRRR does depict some showers or storms as
early as 12z from an old MCV or disturbance, so added some slight
showers in the northeastern third of the CWA. /TWP/TW/
Prior discussion below:
Current afternoon storm activity is working out mostly as expected,
the exception being the better coverage across the NW areas. Look
for activity to slowly evolve through 5pm with a downward trend
between 6-8pm. There remains some potential for strong storms and
possibly a few reaching severe limits. Updrafts have been a bit more
robust than yesterday, but they are still falling short. The evening
will be quiet with persistence being the rule for low temps.
For Thu, model consensus has trended to lesser in the way of PoPs
and I have followed that suggestion. There will still be activity
and no area can be ruled out, but better chances look to be across
the N/NE/E parts of the forecast area. Like today, some strong
storms will be possible with gusty winds being the main threat.
Temps aloft will again be on the cooler side, but not as cool as
today which supports the expectation of strong storms. As for temps,
like with lows, a persistence approach is best and highs will mainly
range from 90-93. /CME/
Thursday night through next Tuesday: Warm and humid conditions
will continue across the area through the period, as high pressure
off the east coast will result in east to southeast flow. High
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with
overnight lows mainly in the 70s. The humidity should remain low
enough to keep heat index values below 105 degrees.
As for precipitation, decent chances for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will persist through the period. This
activity looks to dissipate during the evening hours, with quiet
weather expected during the overnight hours. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Showers and storms continue to occur around the region, with some
potential for affecting TAF sites. Any site that sees SHRA/TSRA
can expect brief vis and ceiling restrictions. A return to VFR
conditions should occur following storms, all of which should
diminish through the evening and lead to a quiet overnight. There
is some low end potential for some MVFR conditions at PIB/HBG/JAN/HKS
between 11-15z, with a return to VFR conditions at all sites
after that. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 71 91 71 92 / 20 25 19 41
Meridian 71 89 71 92 / 19 34 27 43
Vicksburg 71 93 72 93 / 20 20 20 34
Hattiesburg 71 88 71 90 / 20 49 27 51
Natchez 71 90 72 92 / 20 25 21 38
Greenville 73 89 72 90 / 21 25 14 37
Greenwood 73 90 72 92 / 58 28 16 39
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
TW/27/28/CME
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
930 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.UPDATE...Showers and storms have decreased in coverage and
intensity across inland areas due to loss of daytime heating.
However...scattered showers and isolated storms continue across
the coastal waters and portions of Ne Fl due to a moist and
unstable Se flow. This activity will move northwest affecting
coastal areas the next several hours. Brief periods of heavy
rain and gusty winds possible. High- res HRRR indicating a
re-surgence of scattered showers/isolated storms along the Ne Fl
coast during the pre-dawn hours on Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...Scattered showers continue to move northwest
across the area and have VCSH at all terminals til 06Z.
Patchy late night fog possible and continued previous
fcst of ocnl MVFR vsby at GNV and VQQ between 09Z-11Z.
&&
.MARINE...Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue
to move northwest across the waters. Winds south to southeast
around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk expected for Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 91 73 91 / 20 20 30 30
SSI 75 87 76 88 / 20 20 20 30
JAX 73 90 74 91 / 40 20 20 20
SGJ 75 87 74 88 / 40 30 20 20
GNV 72 90 73 90 / 50 60 20 40
OCF 72 90 73 91 / 60 60 20 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
PP/NM/KB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
835 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Diffuse surface front is currently draped WSW to ENE across Kentucky
and isn`t expected to move much overnight. This area is in a gap
between the progressive impulse pushing well into the eastern Great
Lakes, and another slower-moving disturbance supporting convection
over the Ozarks. This trend is not well handled by the synoptic
models.
Hi-res models tell a different story, with the SPC HRRR continuing
to show convective regeneration across south-central KY beginning
around 03Z, and then expanding NE overnight. With this in play, we
can`t rule out storms overnight, especially south of the Western
Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. However expect these to be garden-
variety storms with minimal SVR threat as the shear is weak and the
instability will be nearing diurnal min.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
A surface analysis this afternoon showed low pressure over the
eastern Great Lakes region with a cold front extending southwest
through Ohio, central Indiana, and southern Illinois. Ahead of this
boundary, warm and moist air prevailed. GOES-16 sounder data
suggests PWATs are running 1.6 to 1.7 inches while regional
observations show dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. Recent RAP
mesoanalysis puts MLCAPE values of around 2000 J/kg. Scattered
showers and storms have be forming since early this morning along
and ahead of the surface boundary.
The forecast in the near term is a bit unsettled with the front
expected to slowly sag into central Kentucky this evening and
stall/wash out across the area through Thursday. For the remainder
of this afternoon, a few stronger storms will be possible across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky where the pool of MLCAPE
is expected to be the highest. DCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg also
suggest the potential for wet microbursts. There is a threat of
heavy rain given the high PWATs, especially if storms train over the
same areas.
There will be a downward coverage trend with convection by early
this evening with the loss of daytime heating but the atmosphere
will remain unstable through tonight given the front in the
vicinity, so will maintain a 20-30 percent chance of showers into
Thursday morning. Forecast soundings and time heights show pooling
of low level moisture across the area which could end up being a
thick stratus layer by sunrise Thursday. These low clouds could hang
around for much of Thursday morning, especially along/north of the
KY Parkways.
Showers and storms on Thursday will be mainly confined to south
central and central Kentucky (generally along/south of the front).
No organized severe weather is anticipated but if instability builds
due to clearing skies then a few stronger storms producing gusty
winds are possible. Highs will be closer to normal with the clouds
and threat of rain and are expected to top out in the lower to
middle 80s.
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Thursday night, our region will be between two ridges, one centered
over near TX and the other the typical Bermuda High. In between is a
weak col, with a surface front also either over or just south of
south central KY. Drier air will try and filter into our southern IN
and north central KY stations, but won`t last too long. Rain chances
will be limited to closer to the TN border.
Friday, the western ridge weaken a little as a broad trough moves in
from south central Canada. We still could have a pocket of drier air
over the region, but the cooling heights aloft may allow for more
storm coverage up to the Ohio River. Pattern should persist to
Saturday.
From Sunday on, our forecast still depends on the strength and
location of the Bermuda High in our area. 00Z Euro has that ridge
axis right over us, even on Saturday afternoon to perhaps a little
north of the region by midweek. 00Z GEFS is similar in location,
with mean QPFs all less than a tenth of an inch, a usual indicator
of widely scattered to isolated storm coverage. Will keep lower
pops, a little under the blended guidance.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Pre-frontal trof has pushesd into the Ohio Valley, with southern
Indiana and central Kentucky sitting in a gap in the convection.
Will initialize with just cirrus ceilings as diurnal Cu dissipates
around sunset. Hi-res models continue to develop showers and a few
storms along the slow-moving boundary overnight, but forecast
confidence is low, so will only carry VCSH and high-end MVFR
ceilings in BWG and LEX for now.
By Thu morning, a shallow and slightly cooler air mass will try to
nose southward into HNB and SDF. However, with only a minimal drop
in sfc dewpoints stratus/fog are a definite concern. Will hit HNB
the hardest with several hrs of IFR ceilings and vis, while the heat
island keeps SDF in MVFR but still fuel-alternate. Look for a
gradual improvement to at least high-end MVFR by the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...RAS
Short Term...ZT
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
717 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2018
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a low amplitude pattern with a
shallow mid/upper level trough from nrn Ontario into the nrn Great
Lakes. At the surface, high pressure over the Upper Mississippi
valley was gradually building into the region with drier air
filtering into Upper Michigan on anticyclonic northwest flow.
However, leftover low level moisture and 850 mb temps near 5C
supported abundant cu/sc over the area with some clearing only
gradually moving into the west.
Tonight, Satellite trends and low level RH forecasts suggest that
clouds should continue to clear and thin out the rest of the
afternoon into the evening. With mostly clear skies and diminishing
winds, favorable radiational cooling conditions (PWAT values below
0.50 inch) should allos temps to drop toward the lower end of
guidance with inland readings to around 40. Some mid 30s may be
possible in isold traditional cold spots. Patchy fog should also
develop inland that may become locally dense.
Thursday, Mostly sunny skies will boost temps to around 70. Light
southerly winds developing as the high moves off to the east will
lake breezes to develop.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2018
Active weather with multiple rounds of showers/t-storms could affect
Upper Michigan Fri through next Tue. Decent agreement from the
models that best chances for rain over Upper Michigan are Fri-Fri
Night and again late Tue into Tue night. Some potential late Sun
through Mon period could also be active depending on where more
active west to east oriented frontal boundary and associated
moisture advection and instability gradient develops. PWATS with
initial system Fri night are around 1.5 inches but these values
climb to around 2 inches by early next week along the frontal
boundary. Through this time frame it is certainly reasonable some
areas in the region will see heavy rain along with possible severe
weather.
Fri-Sat...Broad troughing aloft approaching Upper Great Lakes on Fri
dampens out on Sat. Main sfc trough slowly approaches by Fri night
exiting south and east on Sat afternoon. May see showers/t-storms as
early as Fri morning over western Upper Michigan due to warm air and
moisture advection. Strongest advection will remain well southwest
of Upper Michigan though. Forecast soundings indicate that initial
activity may fall apart while heading into central Upper Michigan by
Fri afternoon. Could be just lower clouds with light showers or
sprinkles, though not quite sure on that yet. Based on possible
lower clouds, only increased temps toward upper 70s over far east
where there could be some sunshine early in the day. Another round
of showers/t-storms probably develops along trough Fri evening or
Fri night though greater instability is forecast to remain south
into WI with low-level jet veering SW to WSW after midnight. Right
entrance of jet streak aloft could support rain farther north than
that but could see the thunder chances ending up on the lower side.
SPC Day3 outlook clips western Upper Michigan with marginal risk on
Fri/Fri night with greater risk farther south and west. Lingering
rain should be mostly over east half of U.P. on Sat morning with
drying trend into western U.P. Temps mainly in the 70s for the day
but could be cooler along Lk Superior if stronger NW winds develop
behind the trough.
Sun-Labor Day...Think most of Sun ends up dry as ridging briefly
returns. Better chance of sunshine and winds mainly southerly so
raised temps over consensus into the upper 70s/near 80F. Some pop-
up showers may develop as previous EC showed, but think if rain
occurs it likely holds off til Sun night. 12z GFS looks quite
aggressive compared to recent GFS runs along with other models and
GEFS in bringing mid level moisture advection and resulting
heavier swath of QPF of 1-2 inches into western Upper Michigan Sun
night into Mon. More likely scenario is scattered showers and
t-storms mainly over southern Upper Michigan along stronger
dwpnt/instability gradient. Seems that whatever is around late Sun
night moves out early on Labor Day. Suppose we cannot rule out
pop up showers/t-storms in the aftn on Labor Day as front/edge of
instability will be just to the south with dwpnts pushing toward
70F into that boundary. Weak winds could also result in lake
breezes which may help trigger a shower or t-storm during peak
heating. With more clouds and front close by, expect high temps
on Labor Day generally in the low to mid 70s.
Tue-Wed...Stronger low pressure system and sfc trough comes in
later Tue into Tue night. Higher dwpnts/PWATs pool ahead of that
system which could set stage for stronger t-storms and increased
potential of heavy rain. Still differences in main upper level
pattern/timing of trough which will no doubt affect coverage and
intensity of t-storms but Tue does look like a day that bears
watching in terms of t-storms/heavy rain. Decent agreement high
pressure eventually builds back over region by middle of next
week but not sure if that occurs Wed or Thu so will keep low
chances for showers along with smaller risk of t-storms in
forecast for Wed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 705 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2018
Drier air filtering into the area associated with building high
pres from the west, has finally allowed low clouds to clear out of
KSAW in the past hour or two. Fog is expected to develop late
tonight, and may become locally dense over the interior west but
should generally remain inland from the TAF sites. &&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2018
Winds will diminish tonight, and will remain at or below 15 knots
until late Thursday evening, when they will increase up to 20 knots
by early Friday morning across much of the lake and 25 knots Friday
night over the east half. Winds will then remain below 15 knots
until Tuesday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
006.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
656 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Updated the forecast to substantially lower the chance of showers
and thunderstorms tonight. With the loss of daytime heating and
corresponding atmospheric stabilization already underway, the
thunderstorm potential appears to be very slim at this point.
However, the HRRR still signals some potential for redevelopment
this evening, especially in western Kentucky. It`s hard to argue
completely against keeping a slight chance with a weak frontal
boundary making passage. Anything that occurs should be during the
evening, with dry weather expected overnight. Added a mention of
patchy fog late tonight and early Thursday morning with the
aviation forecast package, and this will be reflected in the ZFP
shortly. Remainder of forecast is unchanged.
Also updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Fair confidence in the short term.
Models have a wide range of solutions in the short term but a chance
of rain or storms can not be ruled out. Most of the CAMS have us
getting very little rain but the HRRR is probably the one with the
most qpf. The NAM has absolutely the most qpf of any of the models
but it indicates this evening is the best time. With the loss of
heating find this solution difficult to accept. A cold front is
expected to move into the area today and this evening which would be
the focus for storm development. It may stall over the southern
portions of the area or make it just south into TN overnight. Any
storms that do fire this afternoon will have the potential to be
strong or even isolated severe. The GFS seems too extreme with its
severe parameters. However the NAM does indicate LI`s to negative 7
and CAPES of 2k 3k j/kg2. Also shows PWATs exceeding 2 inches. The
wind profiles are somewhat benign and the freezing level is around
15k feet. So the main threat with any storms would be wind/downburst
and heavy rain. With the loss of heating I expect convection will
end overnight. Friday the cold front starts to lift back north as a
warm front returning storm chances to the area once again Friday.
Severe weather is not expected with this feature. Then once again
rain chances diminish as we lose the heating Friday evening.
Thursday temperatures will be near normal after Thursday
temperatures will return to above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a summer
like synoptic pattern, with High pressure aloft over the southern
and/or eastern CONUS for the duration of the period. Heat/humidity
underneath the High will be sufficiently summer like as well, with
near daily Highs/Lows around 90/70, or within a degree or two each
day. Rimfire convection and/or diurnally driven convection
when/where the High aloft, or reflected surface High, is not
directly overhead will also be a daily occurrence. This should keep
daily storm hazards mainly lightning/locally heavy rain, and
overall, daily storm chances low. There is little to suggest any
other pattern change for the foreseeable future, so summer-time
continues into September and thru the Labor Day Holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Removed all mention of precipitation from forecast terminals as
any additional potential appears to be more probable south and
east of the terminal locations. While VFR conditions are forecast
through much of the period, guidance suggests the potential for
MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings and/or visibilities late tonight
and early Thursday morning. Lingering fog should burn off by mid
morning, but MVFR ceilings may linger through late morning before
lifting to VFR in most locations by afternoon. Winds will become
light northerly behind the front tonight, then northeast around 5
knots on Thursday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
An upper level ridge will remain centered over NM tonight through
Thu, keeping the weather mainly dry. Late tonight some high level
clouds are expected to move over southern CO. On Thu, the NAM shows
the potential for a couple spots of precip over some of the mtns in
the afternoon and the HRRR is dry. Will not mention any chance for
precip in the forecast. Temps will be warmer on Thu, with 90s over
most of the plains and lower to mid 80s in the San Luis Valley and
the Upper Arkansas River Valley.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the evolution of the
upper pattern through the extended period. Both the operational
GFS and ECMWF similar in that they both have varying degrees of
troughing over the western states and high pressure along the east
coast. Ensembles have a high spreads leading to reduced confidence
in the evolution of the extended forecast.
Thursday night...generally dry conditions are expected across the
region while a weak disturbance tracks across northeast Colorado.
This may help generate isolated thunderstorms over the Palmer
Divide during the evening hours, which will shift east and
dissipate with sunset. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s
to lower 60s for lows.
Friday...models in decent agreement with an upper trough digging
south across the Great Basin and flow turning more southwesterly
across Colorado. A weak upper disturbance is forecast to move
across the region during the afternoon and evening hours, while a
cold front drops south across the Plains by the evening. A slight
increase in moisture will likely lead to shower and thunderstorm
development over the mountains during the afternoon, while the
front generates thunderstorms into the evening hours. For the most
part, expect showers and thunderstorms across the Plains to remain
south of Highway 50. Temperatures will be hot across the area with
mid 90s over the lower elevations.
Saturday through Wednesday...by Saturday, the broad upper trough
will drop south into the Desert Southwest and take up residence
there. This will keep flow aloft southwesterly. Several embedded
disturbances are forecast to move across the area through this
period. The GFS has strong waves moving north out of New Mexico on
Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, each leading to widespread shower
and thunderstorm coverage across the region. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible and flash flooding on area burn scars
will have to be watched. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will
also be concerns. Temperatures will be cooler over the region with
generally mid 80s across the Plains. The ECMWF is similar to the
GFS with weak troughing over the western states, however, has much
weaker disturbances lifting north across Colorado. While showers
and thunderstorms can still be expected, coverage does not appear
to be as great as the GFS. Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB.
The winds will decrease this evening, and then late tonight, high
level clouds are expected to move over southern CO. Breezy
southwest winds are expected at KALS Thu afternoon, with breezy
south winds at KCOS and KPUB.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
829 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018
.UPDATE...
This evening rain and thunderstorms will be slow to dissipate. In
the early morning hours showers and storms will form near the
coast and over the Gulf. No significant changes were made to the
overnight forecast.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...
Inland convection will continue to gradually diminish through the
evening hours. Some low ceilings are expected to develop late
tonight through the mid-morning hours Thursday with MVFR to
perhaps IFR conditions. Scattered convection is expected again for
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [745 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Local radars show convection increasing rapidly across the Florida
panhandle and Big Bend early this afternoon. Also, additional
showers and thunderstorms from the east coast sea breeze are
approaching from the Suwannee Valley. Looks like a very active
remainder of this afternoon with the HRRR showing convection
continuing at least into late evening much like we saw yesterday.
Likely PoPs across the Big Bend and portions of the panhandle until
06z with chance PoPs elsewhere. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Through the end of this week, the persistent ridge of high
pressure that has been residing just east of the mid-Atlantic
states will continue to produce moist east and southeasterly flow.
This will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
each afternoon along with enhanced coverage along the Gulf and
Atlantic seabreezes as they move north and west respectively.
Meanwhile, during the early morning hours coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be more likely over our coastal waters.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The synoptic pattern for the rest of the forecast period will
remain very similar. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure
will continue to produce large scale easterly and southeasterly
flow. This setup will allow for increased rainfall chances
slightly- above normal and temperatures at or slightly below
seasonal levels due to enhanced cloud coverage.
The NHC is currently monitoring a tropical disturbance located
near the Lesser Antilles. This system will move northwest towards
the Bahamas for the next few days.
.MARINE...
East and southeast winds around 10 knots along with seas around 1
to 2 feet is expected today and tonight. Winds pick up slightly
through the rest of the week and into the weekend with winds
ranging from 10 to 15 knots and seas increasing to around 2 to 3
feet. Expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
through the next week with most activity tied to the morning and
early hours.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low dispersions less than 20 are possible tomorrow afternoon. Patchy
fog is possible in the early morning hours.
.HYDROLOGY...
The active convective pattern will continue through the period
with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms expected over
the CWA during the afternoon hours. Although widespread
precipitation is not expected, given the current moist regime
slow moving moving storms with high rain rates could cause
localized flooding in low- lying and poor-drainage areas.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 86 73 89 73 / 40 50 30 40 20
Panama City 74 86 73 87 75 / 40 50 40 50 30
Dothan 72 87 71 89 71 / 40 50 20 40 20
Albany 72 90 72 90 73 / 50 50 20 40 20
Valdosta 72 89 72 90 72 / 50 40 30 40 20
Cross City 73 89 73 90 74 / 40 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 76 85 75 86 77 / 50 50 40 40 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...DiCatarina
LONG TERM...DiCatarina
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DiCatarina
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...DiCatarina