Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/12/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Storms today have formed over southeast NM as well as over the
central mtn chain up to the southern Sangre`s. Storms have for the
most part fallen apart rather quickly once moving W-SW off the mtns.
Locales down the RGV including KSKX, KSAF, KABQ, and KONM will
continue to see a chance for VCSH with an isold embedded TS moving by
for the next 2-3 hours. Elsewhere, an outflow bdry has washed up to the
Sacramento Mtns leaving behind a cold pool with -RA and VCSH over
the southeast plains up to the central highlands and KLVS. These will
gradually diminish with overhanging cirrus burning off by late
evening to near midnight. The HRRR and RAP13 have also been showing a
quick isold TS forming off the CO San Juans moving down into NM,
which will likely kick off some gusty outflow winds to KFMN. Given
the convection seen on visible satellite up that way, have been
inclined to believe this outcome and included a period of gusts up
to 20-30kts at KFMN from 01Z-04Z.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry air moving across northern New Mexico is leading to a downtick in
storms there today, but plenty of moisture remains across the
southern half where storms got an early start and are capable of
producing locally heavy downpours. Look for more of the same Sunday,
although with an uptick in storm coverage across northern New Mexico.
High pressure will strengthen over the state early to mid week, with
high temperature trending back to slightly above normal by Tuesday or
Wednesday. Look for a resurgence of storms late next week as high
pressure moves out of the state and allows moisture to trend up.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today`s crop of storms got off to an early start thanks to a higher
PWAT atmosphere across southern New Mexico and disorganized low
pressure aloft stretching from southeast Arizona east into Oklahoma.
The lack of storms across northern New Mexico is due to dry air
rotating southwest across the upper high circulation. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be a threat across south central and
southeast New Mexico through the afternoon and into the early evening
hours prior to the loss of daytime heating. The disorganized area of
low pressure aloft will tighten into an upper low over the Texas
panhandle and the eastern plains of New Mexico overnight into Sunday.
Look for an uptick in storms across northern portions of the state
Sunday afternoon/evening, as PWATs trend up some. Otherwise, Sunday
should be similar to today.
The story for early to mid next week involves the upper low pulling
northeast away from the state as the upper high slides south over
Arizona, then east over New Mexico by Wednesday. This will cause
temperatures to trend back up to above normal by a degree or two most
areas by Tuesday or Wednesday. PWATs are forecast to trend up from
mid to late week as high pressure loses it`s grip on the state and a
new high center builds over CA/NV. Look for an uptick in storms next
Thu/Fri, with a downtrend in daytime temperatures thanks to the added
cloud cover and rain-cooling.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions anticipated for the next 7 days.
Overnight humidity recoveries will be generally good to excellent.
Some areas of poor vent rates forecast over central New Mexico
Sunday and again Tuesday with poor rates becoming more widespread
mid to late next week.
Cell motion through Sunday most likely from the northeast and east
to the southwest and west as a weak upper low pressure system
wobbles around eastern New Mexico/West Texas and the upper high
center lingers over the Great Basin. Areas south of Interstate 40
are favored for wetting convection for the rest of this afternoon
and tonight, while Sunday appears to be most active across the
northwest third to half of the forecast area. Locally heavy rain is
possible. High temperatures will remain mostly below average.
The weak upper low is forecast to lift to the northeast of New
Mexico Monday as the upper high center drifts back over Arizona and
New Mexico. High temperatures will warm a few degrees early to mid
next week, but don`t stray too far from normal. Cell motion Monday
looks to be more north to south. The higher terrain may be favored
for wetting storms early to mid week, with storms drifting into the
valleys in the late afternoons and evenings.
Late next week the upper high center reestablishes over Utah and
Nevada, leaving eastern New Mexico vulnerable to occasional fronts
from the north. Thunderstorms should be most active over the central
and east under this regime. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of average.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
626 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
At 3 PM, the GOES 16 0.64 micron red visible band was showing
that much of the smoke was located across western Minnesota and
western Iowa. The 11.12z HRRR experimental total smoke product
shows that the greatest amount of smoke will remain across
northwest Minnesota tonight. With its surface smoke product
showing very low concentrations and the pollution sensors only
reporting 50 to 80 parts (moderate air quality) per million of
particulates, opted to remove the mention of smoke in the forecast.
Further to the east across central and east-central Wisconsin,
there was a band of showers and storms. This precipitation is
develop along the same boundary that was over our area on Friday
afternoon. The 925-850 mb moisture convergence is being enhanced
by a short wave move southeast through Lower Michigan and eastern
Wisconsin. With the HRRR continuing to show an isolated shower and
storm may make it as far west as Juneau and Adams counties late
this afternoon and early evening, kept a 20 percent chance in
those counties for this time period. However, with this said,
would not be overly shocked that these counties remain dry.
For late tonight and early Sunday morning, the models soundings
show that the depth of the light winds are even greater (up to
650 mb) than what they were this morning (up to 800 mb). Like last
night, we will still be battling a bit of dry air near the
surface. Due to this, went with the greatest concentration of
valley fog in the Mississippi tributaries and Wisconsin River
valley. There will be some valley fog in the Mississippi channel
too, but it looks more to be areas than widespread.
On Sunday, 925 mb temperatures are fairly similar to this
afternoon. However, the influence of the smoke from the western
Canadian forest fires looks less. As a result, went about 1 to 3F
warmer than today.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
500 hPa ridging continues across the forecast area Sunday into
Monday resulting in mostly sunny/clear skies and dry conditions.
With 925 hPa temperatures from 23 to 24 Celsius, it will be
seasonably warm with daily highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The next best chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday into
Wednesday as a Canadian trough drags a cold front across the region.
Strongest deep layer shear is north of the international border, but
some energy from a weakening Central Plains cut-off low could be
ingested into the broader trough and provide additional lift for
convective development. Even so, severe potential is low and POPs
are still somewhat dependent on whether the northern stream wave and
southern stream cut-off low can merge. Still another short-wave
moves through weak quasi-zonal flow and across the region late
Wednesday into Thursday for additional shower and storm chances.
Forecast predictability really falls off the latter half of next
week as medium range models continue to struggle with weak flow
across the CONUS. Low-end consensus POPs seem reasonable at this
time. Temperatures still look to cool down a bit Wednesday through
the rest of the week in the wake of Tuesday night`s cold front.
Daily highs will drop into the 70s to lower 80s for this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
Main concerns this taf period are the smoke layers from the western
NOAM wildfires and the late night/early morning BR/FG centered
around 12z Sun.
Northerly winds aloft will continue to spread smoke southward into
the region, however the thickest of the smoke is progged to remain
west of the TAF sites and not impact sfc vsbys. Smoke at the taf
sites looking to be limited to semi-opaque layers in the 15K-25K ft
range. Otherwise, clouds this period limited to few/sct diurnal
cumulus Sun afternoon.
Another favorable night/set-up for radiational valley fog formation.
BR/FG again expected to develop in the MS river valley and be
in/around the KLSE area in the 10-14z time-frame. Carried a tempo 11-
14z period of IFR cigs/vsbys in BR at KLSE. However BR/FG can be
fickle at the KLSE ASOS site, as nuances of late night valley
drainage winds determine where the BR/FG `sloshes` around the valley
and if it will be observed by ASOS or not.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Rogers
AVIATION...RRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
The afternoon water vapor satellite and RAP analysis revealed
expansive mid-upper tropospheric ridging across the bulk of the
Rockies through the Northern Plains. Southwestern Kansas found
itself in northeasterly flow aloft to the south of the ridge axis.
As evident by the hazy sky across western Kansas, this flow regime
allowed California wildfire smoke to round the ridge and continue
southwestward into Kansas. The GOES-16 Blue Visible Band shows the
smoke very nice in low light of morning and evening. A mid level
cyclonic shear axis extended across New Mexico into North Texas and
Oklahoma, which fostered thunderstorm activity in this region where
deep tropospheric moisture was much greater. This remained far
enough south such as not to influence sensible weather across
western Kansas. This will continue to be the case through Sunday,
although this will change after that. This will be discussed further
in the Long Term section. Otherwise, a continuation of light
easterly winds is expected with lows in the lower to mid 60s and
highs around 90 on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
The mid level shear axis across the Southern Plains, as first
mentioned in the Short Term section, will work its way slowly north
approaching southern Kansas. In doing so, it will bring much more
abundant deep tropospheric moisture, leading to greater chances for
thunderstorms. The first area to see convection will be south
central Kansas as early as Sunday Night, but will only carry 20-30
POPs initially, primarily Comanche-Barber-Pratt counties. On Monday,
the POPs will expand north and westward in the grids, with "Chance"
POPs 25-40 percent in a corridor from Liberal to Garden to Wakeeney
with 50-60 POPs east of a line from Ashland to Larned. The expected
numerous shower and thunderstorm activity should keep temperatures
at bay with highs generally in the lower 80s. It is possible it may
not escape the upper 70s in some spots, but for now highs in south
central KS will be forecast 82-83F. Fairly high POPs will continue
all the way through Monday Night into Tuesday in these same general
regions as a 700mb circulation center migrates slowly north across
Kansas. The ECMWF is a bit farther west with higher QPF amounts, and
if the GFS and eventual short-term high resolution models catch on
to this, then "Likely" POPs will need to be expanded westward. If
the ECMWF solution pans out, much of the region could see an inch or
more of rainfall from this event Monday through Tuesday Night.
The mid level feature responsible for this precipitation event will
finally push east Tuesday Night-Wednesday with weak ridging
replacing it. Eventually, though, western Kansas will become under
the influence of perturbed northwest flow aloft later in the week
for precipitation chances increasing again by Thursday Night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018
VFR will continue through Sunday. That said, there will be some
reductions in visibility (particularly slantwise visibility) due
to smoke plumes arriving in weak NE flow aloft. Other than smoke
and haze, SKC is expected tonight. NE winds gusting near 20 kts at
DDC/GCK late this afternoon will subside quickly this evening,
with light and variable winds overnight. After 15z Sun, a cumulus
field will begin to develop, becoming most pronounced/broken SE of
the terminals Sunday afternoon. No showers and thunderstorms are
expected at the airports through this TAF period, but scattered
rain showers and convection are expected on Monday. After 18z Sun,
SE winds will increase to 10-20 kts at DDC, GCK and LBL, with
lighter SE winds at HYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 89 65 83 / 0 10 10 50
GCK 60 87 63 84 / 0 0 0 30
EHA 60 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 20
LBL 61 88 64 85 / 0 20 10 30
HYS 64 89 66 81 / 0 0 10 50
P28 67 90 68 83 / 0 20 30 60
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
628 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
With NE upper flow bringing smoke from the California fires back
into the eastern portion of my CWA...have opted to mention patchy
smoke and haze for the early evening hours. Since it is mixing
down and affected visibility slightly...will monitor and expand
areal coverage if necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
Today-Tonight: A dry/stable airmass will prevail over the Tri-
State area through tonight, between an upper level ridge over the
Rockies/High Plains and a stalled upper level low to the SSE
(invof central TX). With little/no destabilization and little/no
forcing, expect mostly clear skies through tonight. Simulated
reflectivity products via the HRRR and NAM NEST are in agreement
that diurnal convection will be relegated well south of the KS/OK
border this aft/eve. Expect light/variable winds with highs in the
lower 90s today and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.
Sun-Sun night: The upper level ridge over the Rockies/High Plains
will begin to break down late Sun/Sun night as a potent upper
level low (situated just offshore the PAC NW this afternoon) lifts
slowly ENE/NE through southern British Columbia/Alberta into
central Saskatchewan. The stalled upper low in central TX --
blocked from eastward progress by a N-S oriented ridge over the MS
river valley -- is progged to retrograde slowly north toward a
weakness in the de-amplifying ridge over the Central/Northern
Plains late Sun night. Though isold convection cannot be entirely
ruled out south of I-70 and east of Hwy 83 Sun night as low-level
moisture advection commences, 12Z model guidance suggests that
forcing attendant the broad upper low will largely be confined to
the TX Panhandle, central OK, and far south-central KS through 12Z
Mon. With the above in mind, expect dry conditions to persist
Sunday through sunrise Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
The period begins with a very zonal upper-level flow, confined
mainly to over the PAC NW and into Canada. A weak jet finger is
centered over the Great lakes surrounding a cut-off low. Higher
upper-level wind speeds can also be noted over CO and KS,
outlining a weak upper-level low over E CO, down into NM, and the
panhandles of TX and OK. Divergence aloft can be noted over KS and
NE. As the pattern progresses forward, Cyclogenesis will occur in
the vicinity of the divergence aloft and extend down to at least
700 mb. This low will essentially absorb into the longwave trough,
pushing southward out of Canada by Tuesday. There is a
discrepancy as to when the low will be absorbed into the longwave
pattern, with the ECMWF lagging behind the GFS by almost an
entire day.
Both the GFS and ECMWF agree on timing and placement of the longwave
trough as it enters the CONUS Tuesday. This longwave will support a
surface cold front which will sweep across the northern plains
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, approaching the AOR then stalling
out by Friday and becoming more stationary in nature. This
boundary provides the instability and lift needed to possibly
produce generalized thunderstorms and increased cloudiness Tuesday
onward.
Disturbances in the flow will be present Wednesday and Thursday,
according to both models. This will increase chances for
precipitation along the eastern periphery of the AOR until
Wednesday night at which point precipitation could blanket the
entire area and push off to the east, exiting the AOR by Thursday
evening. After this, conditions should remain quite dry until
Saturday with weak cyclogenesis producing a mid-level shortwave
trough again occurring over the intermountain area. This will keep
thunderstorm chances in the forecast throughout the weekend and
for the duration of the forecast period. Max temperatures will be
in the lower 80s through Wednesday then steadily creeping up into
the mid-80s by Friday. Cloud cover will prevent grueling hot temps
throughout the week. Low temps will steadily remain the the lower
60s the entire week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 506 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
High pressure over the region during the forecast period will
allow for both terminals to see VFR conditions.
Winds for KGLD...SE around 10kts thru 05z Sunday...then SSW
around 10kts. Winds for KMCK...SE 5-10kts thru 03z Sunday...then
light/variable. By 16z...SE around 10kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...SANDERSON
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
216 PM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture slowly increases during the next two days
across central and eastern Nevada. This brings isolated
thunderstorms to the region, except northwest Nevada where dry
weather prevails. Smoke and haze persists across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.
HRRR Smoke product indicates that the haze is not going anywhere
soon, especially with a westerly component that brings smoke from
the California wildfires. A weak trough shears northeast over the
Pacific northwest this afternoon and tonight. The trailing edge of
the trough boosts gradient flow over northwest Nevada for gusty
winds late in the day and continuing this evening. Shallow cool
front pushes into northwest NV overnight and becomes stationary
between the northern border and I80.
While the northern portion of the warm high dome gets flatten by
shearing trough, the southern portion remains firm over southern
Utah and Arizona. Monsoonal moisture streams northward over
central and eastern NV during the next two days. Isolated
diurnally driven thunderstorms will develop across this area,
with higher coverage over the higher terrain (from the Toiyabes
east to the Snake range). Southwest flow prevails over northwest
NV, keeping that portion of the state dry.
With the high warm dome no longer overhead, daytime temperatures
will not be as hot, but remain above the seasonal norms.
.LONG TERM...Monday night through next Saturday.
Models are in generally good agreement through the extended
period. Upper high center will weaken this weekend while splitting
to the northeast and retreating southward which will cause
daytime temperatures to cool down to between 85 and 95 degrees for
the first half of next week. Although main trough energy will
pass north of region, modest monsoonal moisture over the east half
of the state will allow for isolated to perhaps scattered pockets
of dry and wetter storms to occur on Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoon/evenings across portions of northeast and central
Nevada. A mid-level shortwave lifting northeastward across
California could also trigger isolated storms farther west and
north on Wednesday before shifting eastward on Thursday. Upper
high is forecast to briefly rebuild over California into Nevada on
Friday and next Saturday which should allow for dry, storm-free
weather to return to the state with afternoon temperatures warming
back up into the mid 90s to near 100.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR but hazy conditions are expected through Sunday
evening for KWMC KBAM KEKO KELY and KTPH with the possibility of
MVFR visibilities primarily around and west-southwest of KWMC on
Sunday as thicker smoke plumes from California wildfires impact
western Nevada. Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the
vicinity of KELY this afternoon with a better chance on Sunday as
weak push of monsoonal moisture continues to slowly creep
northward.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Evening gusty winds to 35 mph across zone 467 will exist through
much of the evening. Gusty winds will gradually diminish
overnight. As cold front pushes into northwest Nevada overnight,
humidity values will increase.
Moisture gradually increases during the next two days bringing the
threat of thunderstorms to central and eastern Nevada. Initially,
isolated dry thunderstorms are expected but gradually become wet
toward mid week.
Sunday, the highest dry lightning threat will be across zone 454,
455, 457, and 470, but areal coverage will be isolated.
Monday, the dry lightning threat includes 454, 469 and 470 but
some storms will be wet. For zone 454 and 455, storms are likely
to be wet as precipitable water continues to rise above 0.75
inches.
Tuesday and Wednesday, higher confidence that most thunderstorms
will be generating wetting rains.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central and
Western Humboldt County.
&&
$$
88/95/95/88
Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018/
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold
front from Southern Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, then back into
Oklahoma. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along and south
of this boundary with the nearest convection to the Mid-South near
extreme Northeast Arkansas. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across
the Mid-South are in the lower 90s at many locations.
A weak cold front is expected to gradually drop south into the
Lower Mississippi Valley tonight producing isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for convection are
expected to be predominantly north of I-40 through this evening.
Surface based CAPE values at or above 3000 J/kg, Precipitable
Water values around 1.7 inches, and overall shear remaining weak
suggests the potential for pulse type thunderstorms producing wet
microbursts with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms to
an isolated severe thunderstorm. Damaging wind gusts along with
localized heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger storms.
Short term models indicate this weak front will become quasi-
stationary across the forecast area for Sunday into Sunday night
bringing isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to
areas of East Arkansas, Southwest Tennessee, and North
Mississippi. Shortwave mid-level ridging will try to build in for
Monday and Tuesday. We may see a decrease in convective coverage
during this period with generally isolated rain chances at best
and primarily driven by convective temperatures being reached
during the afternoon/early evening hours.
Long term models indicate better chances for showers and
thunderstorms will come towards mid to late next week as upper
level ridging translates east and a mid level trough moves across
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys. This will bring an increase
in shower and thunderstorm chances during this aforementioned
time.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs
Main short term forecast concern is TSRA trends through late
evening. Scattered TSRA north of JBR to east of MKL were occurring
near a weak cold frontal boundary at 00Z. This front will show
little further southward progress this evening. Expect a gradual
decrease or consolidation in TSRA coverage as boundary layer
stabilizes through 03Z. This dissipation may not be as quick to
occur as typical under the normal midsummer upper ridge, as the
Midsouth remains favorably-positioned with respect to an upper
level jet core that we don`t typically see in mid/late summer.
Have kept TSRA out of MEM TAF for the evening, given expected
timing of storm dissipation. This scenario is supported by the
HRRR and NAM-Nest models, but will need to monitor storm trends
closely.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
858 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.UPDATE...Frontal boundary in the western portions of the state
making slow progress to the east tonight. Passage expected to be
late tonight or early Sunday for most areas. Temperatures have
fallen most areas with the loss of daytime heating. Outflow from
weak convection over the central mountains has pushed into the
Snake Plain, which has also contributed to locally cooler
temperatures, along with breezy gusts over 30 mph in some
locations. Since temperatures Sunday are still expected to be some
8-12 degrees cooler than today, depending on location, have
allowed Heat Advisory to expire as planned. Gusty winds and low
humidities Sunday, even behind the front, will remain and thus
will leave the Red Flag Warning in place. There is still some
concern about the potential for convection overnight, especially
in the Central Mountains for fire concerns. Frontal passage could
still provide enough lift in the area, where mid level instability
still exists. Region is still in favorable region for upper jet
dynamics as well. Current forecast grids maintain very weak PoP
over the central mountains with isolated thunder mention, and
despite low confidence in any one location seeing anything
develop, am opting to leave mention in place overnight. HRRR
develops some evidence of very weak convection across central
mountains but also southern highlands near sunrise. Do not expect
much, if any, precipitation out of it, but gusty outflows are
possible. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue across all terminals for at
least the next 48 hours. Breezy west and southwesterly flow will
gradually diminish tonight tonight ahead of a frontal boundary
currently moving into western Idaho. This front is expected to bring
little more than scattered high clouds and an eventual wind shift
but a non-zero chance of isolated gusty showers does exist overnight.
Breezy conditions are then expected Sunday behind the front. Gusts
near 20kts should be common across area terminals. Smoke will also
continue to varying degrees at all terminals, but not expecting
vsbys below 6SM. TAX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018/
DISCUSSION...Today Through Next Saturday.
Our main weather concerns this afternoon/eve continue to be extreme
heat, and critical fire weather with possible isolated t-storms.
EXTREME HEAT: A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM this
eve for the Snake Plain, eastern Magic Valley, and Southern
Highlands. High temps are forecast to top out at similar values to
what was observed yesterday, generally 98-104. A few other valley
locations, such as Challis and Driggs, may reach similar values.
Multiple high temp records will likely be broken again this
afternoon. Model guidance, including the MAV/MET tables, have
continued to run slightly cooler than what has actually been
observed each afternoon during this heat wave, so once again
bumped forecast highs up just a bit above guidance, and also
made area adjustments based on observed temps yesterday. There is
an increased risk of heat-related illnesses and injuries today.
Residents should take today`s heat seriously...these high
temperatures could be dangerous if precautions are not taken.
Heat-related safety information is available on our social media
pages, as well as at weather.gov/safety/heat and ready.gov/heat.
THUNDERSTORMS: We do carry a slight chance of a few isolated showers
and t-storms across portions of the Central Mntns this afternoon
and eve ahead of a cold front, generally east of Stanley and
Ketchum and north of Darlington. We cannot rule out isolated
activity as far south and east as Craters of the Moon, Arco, and
Monida early tonight as well. Generally most locations will
remain dry, but this potential will be of concern for wildfire
crews. NAM/RAP forecast soundings carry plentiful low-level dry
air with inverted-V signatures, high LCLs, and notable DCAPE
values of 1,200 to 1,600 J/kg, confirmed by the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. Thus, t-storms may be capable of producing
lightning and strong downdraft/outflow winds. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect as well for the Central Mntns through Sunday
evening. See the FIRE WEATHER section below for more details.
Breezy conditions are expected Sun afternoon behind the cold front,
with a few isolated showers/t-storms possible in the Southern
Highlands and Island Park region. Relatively cooler temps are
expected, down 8-10 degrees compared to today. Then, some
monsoonal moisture looks to expand north toward our forecast area
for Monday through Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF have drifted into
slightly better agreement with the overall pattern, but the GFS is
still wetter, and confidence in placement and coverage of
showers/t-storms is low throughout the week. Right now, Wed
afternoon/eve looks like the wettest period. With increased
moisture, storms may be able to put down some more noticeable
localized rainfall amounts. Temps remain a bit cooler through the
week, but still a bit warmer than average. - KSmith/RS
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF terminals across SE Idaho for
the next 48 hours, with moderate to high forecast confidence. A few
isolated t-storms are possible in portions of the Central Mntns this
afternoon and evening. It still looks like this activity will remain
north and east of KSUN, but we cannot rule out an outflow boundary
with gusty/erratic winds making it into the Wood River Valley. We
will monitor for any needed updates. Smoke and haze will also
continue to varying degrees at all terminals, but not expecting
vsbys below 6SM. - KSmith/RS
FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions will continue through this evening across the
central mountains (422, 475 and 476). Gusty winds, low humidity
and Haines 6 remains in place. Forecast was updated for greater
area of isolated dry thunderstorms with gusty out flow winds in
the Salmon-Challis Forest this afternoon and evening. The latest
model run has slowed the arrival of the front through Stanley and
Clayton area until about 0400-0500 hours Sunday morning, winds at
ridge top may increase a couple hours ahead of the front. Humidity
tonight on mid and upper slopes should max around 30- 35 percent
in the central mountains. About 7-9 degrees colling on Sunday will
bring the Haines down to a 5 in most areas. Monsoon moisture and
a slight chance of thunderstorms will sneak northward into the
Southern Sawtooth Sunday afternoon and evening, flowed by
increasing threat Monday and Tuesday. A few select cells may
produce a tenth of an inch precipitation. This round of monsoon
moisture reaches a max across southeastern Idaho on Thursday, then
will be nudged eastward by a disturbance off the Pacific late
Friday. Multiple disturbances in northwesterly flow next weekend
will probably bring a few breezy days and not much precip. - RS
AIR STAGNATION...
Smoke and haze from numerous wildfires burning across Idaho and the
Pacific Northwest continue to affect the region, and will result in
periods of degraded air quality across SE Idaho. Continue to monitor
data and forecasts from the Idaho Department of Environmental
Quality (ID DEQ) for the latest on regional air quality. We
currently carry haze in the forecast for the entire CWA through Tues
morning. We MAY see some improvement by tomorrow behind the cold
front, but this is hard to forecast, and additional smoke may
still be able to stream into the region from the larger fires in
CA and OR. - KSmith/RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>059-075.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ422-475-476.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
840 PM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low pressure system resulting in the
cooler temperatures and scattered showers across the area today will
gradually give way to upper level high pressure and a return to hot
temperatures by early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Still some scattered showers
over the north coast and over the north part of the Cascades this
evening, but the overall trend has been for showers decreasing with
the loss of diurnal heating. The main upper trough was beginning to
stretch out and lift ne into BC, but as this happens there was still
a vort max in the sw end of the trough swinging east, set brush the
nw part of the forecast area overnight. Will cut back pops to
account for the ending of showers over the southern parts of the
forecast area.
Remainder of short term discussion unchanged...Water vapor satellite
imagery this afternoon reveals an upper level low pressure lifting
northeastward towards the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A 500mb cold pool
near -19C is accompanying this storm system, which has helped to
produce several short lived thunderstorms over the Puget Sound.
Because this upper level storm system is just brushing our region, a
strong gradient in temperatures aloft exist across our CWA this
afternoon. For example, the RAP suggests 500mb temperatures of -17C
to -18C are currently in place over Pacific County vs. -9C to -10C
towards Lane County. This considerable difference in cold air aloft
(a decent proxy for instability present) has led to fairly widespread
showers developing across southwest Washington today while areas
farther south towards Lane County have remained dry. Rainfall amounts
across our northern zones have generally remained under a tenth or
two tenths of an inch, but a few locations have had upwards of
0.50-1.00" of rain including areas around Tillamook, the west slopes
of the Willapa Hills and Kalama.
Models remain in good agreement the upper level low pressure will
shift northeastward into Canada overnight, which should lead to the
threat of showers decreasing from south to north. The lone exception
to this will be along the north Oregon and south Washington coast
where models suggest a weak surface low pressure currently found off
Vancouver Island will drop southeastward overnight. This should help
to maintain a chance for light rain through the overnight hours that
could even linger into Sunday morning along the north coast.
500mb heights look to slowly build across the region through early
next week as a weak upper level trough gives way to shortwave
ridging. This should lead to temperatures returning to near average
levels Sunday and climbing into the 90s for the Willamette Valley and
Columbia River Gorge on Monday. At this point Tuesday looks to be the
hottest day next week with temperatures likely climbing into the mid
to upper 90s per the GFS/EC and their ensemble members. /Neuman
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday...No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Ridging builds back up over the Pacific NW next
week. A weak shortwave trough swings through midweek, cooling us a
few degrees Wednesday, and dropping temperatures back down into the
upper 80s on Thursday. We should remain dry through the period,
though. Ridge builds back up even stronger going into next weekend
on the GFS, while the ECMWF keeps the ridge weaker. This lowers
confidence in temperatures going into next weekend. With high
pressure, we will probably see temperatures get back up into at
least the low 90s next weekend, but the GFS solution would have us
hotter than the ECMWF solution as well as the current forecast. -
McCoy
&&
.AVIATION...A weak surface low is apparent on satellite and
radar as of 03z. Main impact is to generate some stratus over the
waters which could bring additional weak showers or drizzle to
KAST for the next several hours. Also looks like the stratus will
work south along the coast reaching KONP in a couple hours or
so. Expect cigs to lower further into IFR cigs reaching near 007
07-08z, remaining there until starting to lift by late Sunday
morning. WIll also see a surface thermal low stretch north along
the coast to bring gusts 20-25 kt to KONP Sunday afternoon and
night.
Inland remains VFR and will likely remain so until later
overnight when models show MVFR stratus cigs of 020-030 to
develop around 12-14z. Stratus should dissipate by 17z and have
modest confidence in that timing.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR through tonight, with
scattered showers possible through this evening. MVFR cigs look
to impact the terminal between 10-18Z. VFR conditions return by
late Sunday morning. JBonk/64
&&
.MARINE...Main changes were to adjust winds related to the
increasing pressure gradient between surface high pressure
drifting south Sunday morning and deepening surface thermal low
pressure pushing north along the northern California/southern
Oregon coast coast. Expect gusty winds to 25 kt to reach all
portions of the central Oregon coastal waters, thus have added
the inner waters to the advisory as well. Also stretched the
advisory a little longer into Monday morning with winds easing
near daybreak. High pressure will linger over the NE Pac for
much of the upcoming week, with conditions flirting with advisory
criteria during the afternoon/evening hours, especially south of
Cascade Head.
Seas are currently around 3 to 4 ft this afternoon, but will
build to around 5 to 6 ft Sunday and Monday, mainly south of
Newport as northerly winds increase. Seas could build to around
7 to 8 ft later in the week, especially over the outer waters,
but confidence is low as much of the growth will be determined
by how much of the tropical cyclone swell is pushed this way.
JBonk/64
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM PDT
Monday for Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence
OR out 60 NM.
&&
$$
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is
commonly referred to as the CWA or forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
911 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.UPDATE...
Very minor update to PoPs for the overnight hours, otherwise the
previous forecast was on track with no other changes necessary.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [758 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Plenty of cloud cover across the area early this afternoon with a
little drier air moving in through the mid levels across the area.
Thunderstorms this afternoon appear to be hindered due to these two
features. HRRR keeps the area mostly dry through mid afternoon then
develops isolated storms over AL/GA which move southeast into our
counties through early this evening as well as portions of the FL
panhandle. Low end chance PoPs are reasonable and left as is. A weak
shortwave trough moving through westerly flow will help spark
convection in the marine zones west of Apalachicola this evening and
overnight. Some of these may move inland overnight across coastal
sections of the FL panhandle and western Big Bend. Elsewhere,
tranquil conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies and lows
into the low/mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
A mid to upper level closed off low over the Great Lakes today will
slide southeastward into the Ohio Valley. The weak frontal boundary
out ahead of it will be draped across the tri-state area Sunday
and Monday, shifting northward ever so slightly on Monday. The dry
side of the front will sit mostly over our southeast AL and
southwest GA counties, resulting in the highest PoPs over north
FL. Deep layer shear will be low, less than 20 knots, so organized
severe weather is unlikely. Afternoon MLCAPE values will be
around 1000-1500 J/kg on Sunday, though and will increase to
around 1500-2000 J/kg on Monday, so a few strong to severe storms
will be possible both days. The main threat will be downbursts of
damaging (50-60 MPH) winds. Highs will be in the low 90s, with
heat indices peaking around 100 both days. Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 70s.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The mid to upper level low will weaken and move off the northeastern
coast by Wednesday, allowing the front draped across our area to
dissipate. PoPs will remain high Tuesday and Wednesday, but return
to near normal (30-50%) through the weekend as deep layer ridging
builds and seabreeze becomes the main forcing once again.
Temperatures will peak in the low 90s each afternoon and dip into
the low to mid 70s each night.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...
A shower or thunderstorm may briefly impact the ABY terminal later
this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
all terminals through the period. The best chance for a
thunderstorm on Sunday will be at TLH and VLD so went with VCTS
after 18z. Winds will be light and mostly from the north to
northwest.
.MARINE...
Moderate westerly flow will persist through the weekend, but wind
speeds will lower heading into next week as high pressure builds
over the area. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet through Sunday then
lower to around 1 foot around Monday.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.
.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could produce brief and
localized heavy rainfall through this afternoon and Sunday. As we
get into the start of the work week a mid-level disturbance and
surface boundary forcing will cooperatively work together and favor
a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms for Monday and
Tuesday. Localized minor flooding is possible with slower moving and
high rainfall producing storms. However, widespread flooding for
this period is not expected. During the remainder of the week we
will return to a typical sea breeze driven afternoon thunderstorms
regime.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 74 92 73 92 72 / 20 40 20 60 20
Panama City 76 92 76 90 75 / 30 30 20 30 20
Dothan 73 92 74 91 73 / 20 20 10 40 20
Albany 73 93 74 92 74 / 20 20 20 40 30
Valdosta 73 92 72 91 72 / 10 40 20 50 30
Cross City 74 90 74 88 74 / 20 40 20 40 30
Apalachicola 77 89 77 89 76 / 30 40 20 40 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...DiCatarina
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
225 PM MST Sat Aug 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain over southern Arizona
through the coming week resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon through evening lingering
at times into the overnight hours. Some variation in the number of
storms will occur from day today. Temperatures will generally remain
within a few degrees of normal for mid August.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast Arizona this
afternoon. Thus far, the storms haven`t been very impressive for our
area with the strongest storms across far northern Sonora. Latest
RAP analysis still shows adequate instability with about 500 J/KG of
MLCAPE for areas north and east of Tucson to about 1000 to 1500 J/KG
from Tucson south and westward. Meanwhile, PWAT values are about
1.25 to 1.5 inches from Tucson westward but down around 1 inch
across Graham and Greenlee County with even lower values on the rim
which will prevent storm development up there today from moving into
the lower elevations. Thus, we`re going to be dependent on locally
generated storms and outflows. Main concerns will be some gusty
winds and brief downpours but any flooding concerns should be
mitigated by 10 to 20 mph storm motions.
Based on review of both the 12Z deterministic models guidance and
CAMs, a similar pattern is expected for Sunday with northeast mid
level flow. While moisture across southern Arizona will be similar
to today, there will be a bit more moisture on the rim which could
send a few thunderstorms down our way into the lower elevations with
isolated to lower end scattered coverage looking good for Sunday and
Sunday evening. As the mid/upper level high reconsolidates across
Arizona Monday and Tuesday, there will be enough moisture for at
least isolated coverage but it should remain slightly below
climatological normals for mid August. A more favorable pattern will
setup starting later this week, perhaps as early as Wednesday
afternoon/evening as a more established east to southeasterly flow
aloft and deeper moisture moves into the area. Both the 12Z ECMWF
and GFS are showing an inverted trough pushing into the area
Wednesday night, continuing Thursday and perhaps into Friday with an
significant uptick in convection. Otherwise, temperatures will be
within a few degrees of normal through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.
Scattered TSRA already developing with at leash VCSH possible at all
3 TAF sites through 00Z along with BKN080-100 cigs. Outside of
thunderstorm gusts, expect mainly light east/southeast winds to
prevail at all sites.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The pattern remains favorable for daily scattered
thunderstorm development areawide into next week. Near or slightly
below normal temperatures will continue throughout the forecast
period. 20-ft winds will be terrain driven at less than 15 mph,
except for in and around thunderstorms where strong outflows may
occur.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Discussion...Lader
Aviation/Fire Weather...Leins
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
452 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
Upper-level analysis shows a broad ridge over the western/central
states, with a low pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Skies
across the northern plains are sunny, although smoke continues to
drift into the region, mainly east of the CWA. With a surface
trough to the west, winds are southeasterly around 10 kts.
Temperatures are rising into the 90s, with some places reaching
100 degrees.
Good meteor-shower-viewing conditions are in tonight`s forecast,
with clear skies and temperatures slowly decreasing to the lower 60s.
Dry weather will continue Sunday, and another hot day is expected
beneath the thermal ridge. Highs will be around 100. Across the SD
plains, southerly winds will be breezy ahead of the incoming trough.
Sustained winds will be 20 to 30 mph, with gusts around 35 mph.
Clear skies are also expected for most areas Sunday night, although
some clouds may start moving into northwestern parts of the CWA with
a cold front; additionally, the HRRR is hinting at smoke moving into
the same areas.
A more active pattern will develop Monday, bringing near daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms for next week. Temperatures
will cool behind the cold front. Tuesday still looks like the
coolest day, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s on the plains,
and 60s/70s in the Hills.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 449 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Upper-level
smoke will persist across the area, increasing a bit on Sunday,
but no reductions to low-level visibility are expected. There is
some potential for low level wind shear tonight on the plains
east of the Black Hills. Southerly winds with some gusts over 25
kt will be found on the South Dakota Plains on Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 154 PM MDT Sat Aug 11 2018
RH across northeastern WY and parts of northwestern SD is dipping
into the teens. Winds over these areas are 10 to 15 mph, with
gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Will let the Red Flag Warning continue for
these areas.
Hot and dry conditions will continue Sunday, with winds becoming
breezier across the SD plains. Weather still looks favorable for
critical fire weather conditions to develop across northwestern
and central SD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Sunday for SDZ261.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for SDZ266.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ259-297-298.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...7
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances will remain in areas roughly
along and east of a line from Barstow to Rachel this evening, then
shift to areas north and east of Las Vegas for Sunday through
early next week. Temperatures will remain several degrees above
normal over the weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...Strong thunderstorms now extend along a line from near
Moapa down to Laughlin, with numerous reports of severe winds coming
in, including a wind gust to 62 mph at Bullhead City airport and
gusts over 50 mph near Moapa. KESX radar is sampling this outflow
boundary moving towards Las Vegas, and should reach Nellis AFB
around 830, and into the central Vegas Valley by 9pm. Strong wind
gusts of 40-50 mph are likely to spread across the Valley, and Lake
Mead in the next 90 minutes. Thunderstorms have showed little signs
of weakening at this point, and may in fact reach the Vegas metro
after 900 pm.
Suspect another few hours of thunderstorms are likely across Clark
and eastern San Bern counties as the ongoing activity develops
westward. Activity should begin to wane by midnight as the storms
outrun the deeper moisture and instability.
-Outler-
&&
.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.
Storms tonight should linger for a time as they ride the cold pool
and slowly diminish. Currently think storms should end by 06Z
overnight. Thunderstorm activity in Clark County is looking less
likely, and the HRRR has backed off the intense solution it had
earlier.
Sunday will be a transition day as a ridge of high pressure drifts
eastward into Arizona by Monday. Unsure how "quiet" Sunday will be.
Compared to today, storms should be more limited as we lose
moisture, especially in the afternoon. However a few models show
some midlevel energy circling around the main anticyclonic flow, so
dont think it will be quiet day either. Best chance for storms will
again by over MOhave County where there will be lingering instability
and dry air will be slowest to intrude.
By Monday, drier air and anticyclonic flow will be overhead and
strengthening. Precipitation chances should be limited to the edges
of the high`s center, which would limit precipitation chances to the
Sierra, northern and eastern Lincoln County, down into eastern Mohave
County. PWATs should be at or less than an inch, so thunderstorm
activity will be isolated.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.
High pressure situated over the Desert Southwest will shift eastward
Tuesday through Thursday as low pressure approaches the California
coast which will help strengthen southerly flow across the area.
There will still be limited instability on Tuesday and activity
should be more diurnally driven and focused over the higher
elevations. High-grade monsoon moisture will push northward from the
Gulf of California reaching our southern zones Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning; overspreading a majority of the area on Wednesday
and Thursday. As such, storm activity is expected to increase each
day from Tuesday to Thursday with Thursday looking to be particulary
interesting as a shortwave trough pushes northward into central
Arizona. Highest precip chances remain over Mohave, eastern San
Bernardino, Lincoln, and Clark counties Wednesday and Thursday. A
downward trend in storm activity should begin on Friday as high
pressure builds back in.
As ridge weakens and moisture increases Tuesday through Thursday
temperatures look to decrease a degree or two each day. However, as
high pressure builds back in on Friday temps will begin to rebound
back above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Thunderstorms should be confined to
the Peach Springs and Mormon Mesa corridors this evening. There is a
slight possibility that storms over southwest Utah could move toward
Las Vegas and hold together. There will be potential for winds from
distant storms to affect the terminal area...primarily from the
southeast this evening, but there is also possibility wind gusts
could come in from the northeast after 05Z. Otherwise a south wind
component is expected through this evening followed by a south-
southwest component late tonight through Sunday with only FEW-SCT
clouds with bases above 12 kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southeast
California...Thunderstorms over northwest Arizona and southwest Utah
may produce gusty winds through early this evening which could
travel far from the originating storms. The terminals most likely
impacted will be KEED and KIFP. The rest of the region will see
mostly benign weather with reduced visibility`s from smoke/haze
continuing across the region through Sunday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolf
AVIATION...Adair
LONG TERM....Guillet
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