Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/28/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
832 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 824 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Things were quite this evening after a busy afternoon. There are some showers/isold storms from nrn Weld into sern WY with stronger storms over nern WY. At this point hard to say whether activity over nern WY will hold together overnight and affect portions of the far nern plans. With NW flow aloft in place will leave in 20 to 30 percent pops across the plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Wave of storms that fired off over the high terrain are spreading southeastward into areas of higher CAPE and shear as expected. The activity over the far northeastern corner where dewpoints are higher continue to be the stronger ones for now, but expecting to see the storms moving off the higher terrain gain more strength as they encounter the higher moisture and warmer temperatures later this afternoon into the early evening. Tornado Watch remains in effect east of a line from Larimer County down through Elbert and Lincoln counties, where shear and CAPE will combine east of a convergence line. Further west, have left Boulder, Jefferson, Denver and Douglas counties out of the watch due to less tornadogenesis formation, but still have a chance for severe strength storms with large hail and strong damaging outflow winds. Most synoptic and mesoscale models showing activity pushing east and diminishing/exiting the area by 9pm, however some highres models showing activity continuing through midnight, with some waves continuing to push out of the NE/WY area all night. Will side more with the highres models due to the convection its picking up on far upstream, and the pattern we`ve been in for the last few days. A surge from the east due to outflow from thunderstorms and from a surface high pressure area over the Great Plains, areas of stratus and possible fog are expected late tonight into Saturday morning. The active pattern continues Saturday with slightly lower CAPE values and slightly lower shear values. Once any stratus burns off, expect thunderstorms to form over the high terrain again around noon then spread southeast across the plains yet again. At this point there`s a chance of severe storms again over the plains, with slightly lower extremes that we would see. Large hail up around golf ball size and outflow winds gusting to 70 mph will be possible. A lower tornado threat as well, but can`t completely be ruled out. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018 We may see a few more severe thunderstorms shift southeast across the plains through Saturday evening with the passing shortwave, sufficient instability, and wind shear. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although isolated tornadoes are also possible given sufficient low level inflow and storm relative helicity. On Sunday, a cold front arrives which will bring cooler temperatures. There may be another round of severe weather depending on the instability along/ahead of the front. At this time, that severe threat would favor locations from the foothills to the nearby adjacent plains and Palmer Divide. We should see rather widespread rain coverage given the synoptic scale lift in place as seen in the Q-G fields and location of the upper level jet (actually getting into the left exit region by Sunday afternoon). That will combine with low level upslope forcing to create a high chance of measurable rain. We`ll increase PoPs into the likely category across all of the plains by Sunday evening to account for this. Cooler weather will last into Monday with cool and moist shallow upslope flow. We`ll be quite stable on Monday so would expect any showers/storms to be confined to the high country. Tuesday through Thursday will feature a warming trend, and the warmer temperatures will return in the forecast through the end of next week. We should see a return of monsoonal moisture toward Thursday and Friday, but the best coverage of afternoon and evening convection will likely stay in the high country. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 824 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Looks like tstm threat has ended. Latest HRRR shows fog and low clouds developing late tonight with some potential for dense fog. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...Kriederman LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
717 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist southerly flow into the region. Moisture will become deeper early next week ahead of upper troughing. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Bulk of the shower activity has been across the extreme eastern portions of the cwa late this afternoon. Weak shortwave moving across the forecast area has kept scattered thunderstorms going just outside of the northeastern counties. Expecting this activity to slowly push further away from the cwa. Latest hrrr keeps most of the overnight hours dry for the entire forecast area, and latest forecast update generally goes dry overnight. Lows overnight will again be in the low to mid 70s with a chance for fog and stratus near daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday looks like the driest day for the Midlands and CSRA as a weak disturbance moves through and pushes the high moisture plume just offshore. With more sunshine, temps should get into the mid 90s everywhere by afternoon. There will still be a low end chance of late day thunderstorms, with the highest POPs once again in the eastern half of the CWA. On Sunday...the moisture will slowly be increasing again as a weak disturbance rounding the Atlantic ridge moves towards the area from Florida. The models differ somewhat on the westward extent of the deepest moisture, however, with the GFS further west than the European. I`ve opted for a blend, which gives my slightly higher POPs than on Saturday, but still seasonable with the highest values once again in the eastern half of the FA. Temps will range from the low 90s in the east to the mid 90s northwest where there will be some more sunshine. As mid level heights build in from the east, the deep moisture feed along the coast will retrograde a little, bringing higher PWs into the region. This will cause an increase in clouds and chances for convection, especially later in the day during the time of maximum heating. I have gone for likely POPs. With the additional cloud cover, temps should be a couple of degrees lower than on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main message for the extended period is the threat for heavy rain. All deterministic models and their ensemble means indicate the area will reside between a strong upper ridge over the western Atlantic and an upper trof over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Deep south to southwesterly flow will draw plentiful moisture into the Carolinas and Georgia, with PWS AOA 2 inches for a better part of the week. It is too difficult to time specific disturbances that could enhance the rainfall this far in advance, but strong upper diffluence will support widespread convection each day. With plentiful cloud cover expected, afternoon temperatures will be a little below normal as highs will have a tough time breaking above 90. Lows will be in the seasonal mid 70s. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Convection has dissipated and/or moved well away from our TAF sites. Fair with VFR expected in the near term. Some questions about fog/stratus potential for late tonight. Guidance yielding mixed results. A front will approach the northern forecast area (FA) late tonight. Some residual mid level cloudiness may inhibit best fog/stratus formation. For now, will indicate tempo MVFR at CAE/CUB, with IFR at fog prone AGS/OGB. Front will stall near our central to southern FA Saturday afternoon. For now, will indicate VCTS for late Saturday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, and late night/early morning fog/stratus. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
936 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Showers continue to form along and north of the international border. This activity is drifting farther south through the northern part of northeast Minnesota. Latest short term mesoscale models point toward additional showers affecting northeast Minnesota overnight. Have updated pops/weather/QPF to account for this trend. UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Thunderstorms just north of the Canadian border will cross into Koochiching and northern St. Louis counties late this afternoon. Have bumped up pops and added the thunder mention to this area. Rest of the forecast in the ballpark. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Conditions are looking mostly dry through Saturday morning before a small chance for showers and thunderstorms develop Saturday afternoon. For tonight, Canadian high pressure will build across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Both the 27.12z GFS and NAM are progging a very dry atmospheric profile over the region, with dry air below at least 3 to 4 kft. With the dry air in place, fog development doesn`t appear likely, despite very light winds overnight. Mostly clear skies will develop overnight. The latest runs of the HRRR and RAP models are showing a cluster of heavier rain showers to develop later this afternoon and evening over areas north of Hibbing and Eveleth towards Crane Lake, but confidence is on the lower side much will reach the ground since the boundary layer is so dry. Still, introduced a slight chance PoP over this area for this evening. The flow will remain northwesterly through the day Saturday due to a cut-off upper-level low that will continue to slowly progress eastward over far eastern Ontario. A very weak maxima of positive vorticity advection (PVA) will linger over central Minnesota and west- central Wisconsin, which should provide enough forcing for some small chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Very weak convergence along this maxima will be present as well. Soundings indicate that there will be a small degree of instability present to support some stronger updrafts, with mixed- layer CAPE values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. However, very little in the way of deep- layer shear will inhibit stronger updrafts. The highest chances of showers and storms will be over the Brainerd Lakes region near the PVA maxima. Highs Saturday will be a little warmer than they were today, but near normal for this time of the year, in the middle to upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The weather across the Northland will be dominated by a broad trough of low pressure early in the period, with northwest flow expected for the rest of the period as well. A shortwave will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region on Sunday afternoon. The storms are not expected to be severe, and we will only have small POP`s due to the limited expected coverage of convective activity. Shortwave ridging will then move into the region on Monday night and Tuesday, before a cold front drops southward across the Northland on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This front could bring showers and thunderstorms during that time frame, spreading from north to south. High pressure will then move in on Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing dry weather to the region for much of the last part of the work week. Return flow will then set up late in the week, with showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west. Wednesday is shaping up to be the most cool, with highs ranging from the 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will range from the 40s to the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 A batch of showers, with a few lightning strikes, was moving over INL at the start of the forecast. This activity will depart by 02Z at the latest. Elsewhere, scattered to broken cumulus clouds at the start of the forecast will diminish fairly quickly leaving a clear sky. High pressure will build across the terminals through the forecast with VFR. Another broken layer of cumulus clouds around 6K feet is forecast Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 53 77 56 78 / 10 10 10 20 INL 51 78 53 79 / 60 10 10 10 BRD 53 77 56 78 / 0 30 10 20 HYR 49 77 52 79 / 0 20 10 30 ASX 55 79 56 79 / 0 10 10 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...GSF SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...GSF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1103 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the region this afternoon. A hint of fall was noted as temperatures were in the 60s to around 70. For the remainder of the afternoon, there is still a small chance of showers along the Interstate/Highway 41 corridor eastward to Lake Michigan. Latest HRRR continued to depict a few showers across portions of the Fox Valley east to the lake through 01z. Will continue to the small chances of showers in this region. Otherwise, skies will become mostly clear tonight with some patchy fog possible across central and north-central Wisconsin. Any fog should burn off by 8 am Saturday morning. Cumulus field will develop again by late morning. An upper level disturbance will drop southeast into the area during the afternoon. Bufkit soundings indicated around 500 J/KG of cape and mid level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM to support shower and a few thunderstorms. Have added thunderstorms to the forecast Saturday afternoon. Severe weather is not expected. High temperatures on Saturday should be closer to normal. .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The latest medium range models continue to show that above normal upper heights will be present on the coasts of the North American continent for much of this forecast period. Upper troughing will extend from Hudson Bay, across the western Great Lakes to the southern Mississippi Valley. As the flow flattens by next weekend, could see the heat and humidity return. But until then, this pattern will be favorable for afternoon pop up showers/isolated storms and near normal or slightly below normal temps. Some detail differences begin to become apparent starting around Tuesday in the medium range models. But in general, a blend of the ecmwf/gfs will work. Saturday night through Sunday night...Shortwave energy will be moving across the region on Saturday evening. With mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 c/km and lingering daytime instability, could see the chance for isolated showers and storms to persist for the first few hours of the evening, mainly from central to northeast WI. Skies should then partially clear overnight, which could lead to some patchy fog formation, particularly over the northwoods, and possibly in those locations that receive some rainfall earlier on Saturday. With daytime heating, instability will build again on Sunday afternoon which could lead to more isolated showers/storms. Just like on Saturday night, patchy fog could develop late. No significant changes to temps. Rest of the forecast...Upper troughing will linger across the area on Monday, before consolidating and closing off over the mid- Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Therefore, think chances for an isolated shower will be a tad higher on Monday. The next best chance for widespread showers/storms looks to occur on Wednesday and Wednesday night when a cold front slides southeast across the region. 700mb winds are only projected to be in the 15 to 20 kt range at this time, so not thinking much of a threat of severe weather. Another cool airmass will settle in behind the front for Thursday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Broken vfr cigs mainly over far eastern Wisconsin through about 08 UTC otherwise mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. VFR conditions will prevail across the entire forecast area on Saturday. However, an upper-level disturbance is forecast to approach the forecast areas during peak heating Saturday afternoon. This will result in a gradual increase in clouds especially north of I29 during the afternoon along with a slight chance for showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm by late afternoon. South of I29 including eastcentral Wisconsin, any showers that develop will be a bit later in the day mainly after 21 UTC. Given that the forecast coverage for any shower activity is still uncertain it was not explicitely included in this TAF issuance. .KOSH...Bkn VFR cigs will scattered out by 07 UTC. Northwest winds of around 5 to 10 mph will become light overnight. VFR conditions expected for Saturday with a gradual increase in clouds during the afternoon. Winds will are forecast to be more westerly at 5 to 10 mph. There is a slight chance of a shower or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm generally after 21 UTC. Confidence on timing and coverage is low thus opted not to include in this TAF issuance. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....Eckberg LONG TERM......MPC AVIATION.......ESB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 On the synoptic scale, an intense mid/upper low is centered just north of the Great Lakes region with a trough draped across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extends from just ahead of this upper low through the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and becomes stationary across the Southern Plains, Southern Rockies, and into the Great Basin. In the west, a very broad/weak mid/upper ridge is located over the western CONUS. However, a shortwave disturbance has initiated thunderstorm development in the vicinity of northern Colorado, eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. The convective development is expected to continue as the complex of storms moves closer to western and eventually central Kansas later this evening and overnight tonight. This will be what brings chances of strong and severe storms into western portions of the local forecast area this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 As mentioned above, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) is expected to make its way into western Kansas this afternoon, reaching Central Kansas later this evening. Strong and severe storms are expected where a max of MLCAPE and effective bulk shear in excess of 50kts will be located in western parts of the state. The MCS is expected to slowly weaken as it progresses off to the southeast later tonight, but the main challenge for central and south central Kansas will be pinpointing the track of the storms. Latest models show a variety of solutions regarding how far east the storms will progress. For example, the latest HRRR and RAP both bring the storms further east into central Kansas and then south into portions of south central Kansas late this evening. The 12Z NAM and Hi-Res models keep the vast majority of convection tonight just to the west of the forecast area. Overall, thinking that the best chance to see strong or severe storms will be along and west of I-135, with severe storm chances greatly diminishing further east. Main threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain. Chances of showers and storms will linger into Saturday morning across much of the area, but by this time intensity will have weakened quite a bit. Another round of storms is expected to move into the area from the northwest again late Saturday night/Sunday morning after a lull Saturday afternoon. Timing will be the main challenge here, as the 12z NAM does not bring storms into central Kansas until early Sunday morning. The ECMWF is more progressive with timing, allowing for convective initiation a few hours earlier, while the GFS lies somewhere in between. As previous discussions have indicated, higher confidence remains along southern Kansas where higher precipitable water values are expected and heavy rainfall and localized flooding may result. With only marginal instability, lapse rates, and shear, confidence in severe storms remains fairly low, though a few stronger storms will be possible. Sunday afternoon into Monday, there remains fairly good agreement that another round of widespread rainfall will be possible across the area as an upper trough sags down across eastern Kansas and into the Mississippi Valley by mid week. Widespread severe storms appear unlikely as instability will remain marginal at best, but a lot will depend on how the Friday and Saturday night storms play out. Regarding temperatures, lowered afternoon highs on both Sunday and Monday from previous forecasts and initial loaded blend due to lingering showers/storms, cloud cover, wet ground, and moist easterly flow. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 After storms clear on Monday night into early Tuesday, the pattern will become much less active as drier air moves over the region. Expect a slow warming trend by mid-week with highs recovering back into the low 90s by Thursday-Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 Challenging aviation forecast with eastward extent of storm evolution less than clear, as models do not have a good handle on ongoing storms in the vicinity of KHYS. These storms have developed on eastern edge of instability, the development of which was not well forecast by models. Still anticipate storms further northwest to roll southeast during the evening/overnight, but anticipated moisture gradient casts doubts about eastern extent of storms, especially for KSLN and KICT. Upslope flow behind storms make MVFR ceilings likely enough to mention at KRSL and KSLN. KGBD is on the cusp and will keep them VFR for now. -Howerton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 66 87 69 83 / 50 20 50 50 Hutchinson 66 86 67 82 / 50 20 50 50 Newton 66 85 66 82 / 30 30 50 50 ElDorado 66 85 66 81 / 30 30 50 50 Winfield-KWLD 67 87 68 82 / 40 40 50 50 Russell 63 83 65 80 / 70 10 50 40 Great Bend 64 85 65 81 / 80 10 50 40 Salina 64 86 67 82 / 40 30 50 40 McPherson 65 85 66 82 / 40 30 50 50 Coffeyville 67 86 68 82 / 20 50 40 60 Chanute 66 85 67 81 / 20 40 50 60 Iola 65 84 66 80 / 20 40 50 60 Parsons-KPPF 66 85 68 81 / 20 50 40 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAV SHORT TERM...TAV LONG TERM...TAV AVIATION...PJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
925 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A front will remain west of the area through the weekend into early next week. As a result, humid and unstable conditions will continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The coverage of storms will likely increase the first part of next week as upper level impulses move across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 900 PM Friday...While the coast was left with only some debris clouds from convection upstream late this afternoon into this evening, storms blossomed west of I-95. A couple of storms were producing small hail near Society Hill and Red Springs. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued near Bennetsville for wind and hail. Expect these storms to begin to weaken and diminish over the next few hours. Other storms were located along lingering boundary or trough just west of the local forecast area over central NC. The focus should shift once again to the coast this evening into the overnight hours, but the models show most activity remaining off the coast with some brushing the coast heading toward daybreak. Lower clouds and isolated showers were developing along the coast, mainly south of Cape Fear. Nocturnal jetting should keep fog at bay but should leave some low clouds around with mid to high clouds streaming over the area through the night from convection upstream. Overall, a very moist column will persist through tonight. Previous discussion: Large high pressure offshore and a broad upper trough to the west is sandwiching the Carolinas in a very unstable and humid atmosphere. Flow through much of the column is from the SW, which is keeping PWATs over 2 inches, highest near the coast, which combined with latest RAP analyzed MLCape of 2500-3000 J/kg has allowed scattered tstms to develop across the area. Shear is minimal so organization has not occurred, but the sea breeze and other boundaries have driven convection today. There appears to be little mid-level assistance today, which suggests the convection will dissipate with loss of heating. Have shown a nocturnal decrease in convection, with activity shifting and redeveloping off the coast in typical fashion as instability blossoms as the air temperatures cool over the warm ocean waters. Some of this activity may push towards the coast late in the overnight into Saturday morning. Mins tonight will be quite warm, around 75 most places, and this combined with a LLJ of 20-25 kts should preclude widespread fog. However, UPS fog tools and numerical guidance show at least a chance for some fog as winds ease. Have not shown any in the wx grids attm, and will need to update with later guidance, but the potential exists late. On Saturday, expect a similar evolution to today as the synoptic pattern is mostly unchanged. Showers/tstms early will develop and lift along the coast before slowly shifting westward through the aftn. Once again, boundaries will be the primary driver of convection in a pulse environment. With high PWATs continuing coverage will likely be a bit greater than seasonable norms, but timing exactly when and where tstms will develop will be a now-cast challenge. Highs on Saturday will again be in the mid to upper 80s, coolest at the coast or in locations that have more cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Friday...Broad trough across the eastern half of the country will persist through Sunday night as shortwaves periodically rotate through its base reinforcing the trough. One of these may lift NW of the area Sunday aftn, remaining just displaced from the CWA by ridging to the east. This feature however will likely help to enhance convection Sunday, as it interacts with a continued very moist environment with PWATs over 2 inches and high instability. Another day of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms is likely, and while diurnal heating will drive much of the activity, expect an earlier than usual start and greater than climo coverage. Very low shear Sunday suggests storms won`t organize much, but will be driven by all boundaries, with periods of very heavy rainfall likely. Difficult to pinpoint exactly when and where the best rain chances will be, but will show at least an increase during heating with lesser chances at night. Clouds/convection will keep highs in the mid 80s at the coast, around 90 inland. Mins both nights will remain elevated as warm southerly flow persists, 1-2 degrees either side of 75, warmest at the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 PM Friday...A potential for additional bouts of heavy rain is expected next week. The flow between an H5 subtropical ridge far off the southeast U.S. coast and developing trough to the west will direct hard to time impulses across the region Mon-Tue in a moist environment. The mid/upper trough will deepen by mid-week with the aforementioned ridge building toward the coast, thus the convective focus may shift farther inland during Wed-Fri. At the surface, the old boundary just west of the forecast area will weaken and lift northward by Tuesday leaving the sea breeze front as a potential lifting mechanism. Precipitable water will remain high during the long term, but the axis of highest values will likely shift toward the inland areas late in the period. Followed a blend of MEX/ECMWF numbers each period. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 00Z...SHWRS/TSRA were weakening inland, just west of I-95 with mainly lingering -SHRA over Lumberton area. Other showers were developing along the Grand Strand near MYR. Expect the inland storms to dissipate through 02Z and the activity to the coast. The latest models keep most of the stronger convection off shore through the morning with some showers brushing the coastal terminals, but expect some low clouds to develop. Another day of storms expected on Saturday in a continued moist and unstable atmosphere ahead of a cold front to our west. Agree with previous thinking, with little change in the overall pattern, it is expected that showers will again lift to near the coast overnight on S/SW winds of 5-10 kts, and have re- introduced VCSH with MVFR at the coast after midnight. Some fog is again possible inland overnight but should remain above IFR. More scattered showers and storms likely on Saturday with SW winds around 10 kts. Extended Outlook...VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA each day between the inland and coastal terminals through the weekend. Increasing chances for thunderstorms beginning Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 900 PM Friday...Included a brief precautionary statement with SW winds 15 to 20 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft in northernmost zone only as models depict a decent nocturnal jet just until shortly after daybreak. A weak cold front well west of the area and high pressure offshore sandwich the waters through Saturday. This will drive the S-SW winds during the period, increasing to 15-20 kts tonight, but otherwise will be 10-15 kts. This setup produces a wave spectrum comprised of a southerly 5-6 second wind wave and a 9 sec SE swell. Together, these will produce 3-4 ft seas, reaching up to 5 ft overnight during the stronger winds. Additionally, scattered showers and tstms are likely to develop overnight into Saturday morning, producing lightning and visibility restrictions in briefly heavy rainfall. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Friday...Patten remains unchanged this period with high pressure to the east and a stalled front to the west. These features pinch the waters in S/SW winds of 10-15 kts, with little fluctuation throughout. A southerly wind wave and SE swell will remain the primary wave groups to produce significant seas of 3-4 ft. Periods of showers and tstms are likely as well, focused during the overnights when instability over the waters is greatest. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM Friday...A front will remain north and northwest of the waters through the period allowing high pressure far off the southeast U.S. to remain in control. As a result, south-southwest winds will prevail each day. Speeds will increase at times due to the pressure gradient tightening. The persistent fetch will likely lead to a prolong period of choppy/steep waves. Chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the extended. This pattern also supports a heightened rip current risk, especially south facing beaches. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW/RGZ SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...RGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .AVIATION... Isolated to scattered convection residing across the southern South and Rolling Plains has remained south of the terminals to this point. The individual storms are moving very little, but they will have the potential to redevelop on outflows for the next 2-3 hours before diminishing. Given its proximity to the convection, KLBB will have the best chance of experiencing an outflow and perhaps a brief shower or storm this evening. Confidence in a direct impact is low, but have included VCTS the next couple of hours at KLBB and will amend as needed. After this evening`s convection fades we will have to look north to watch for an MCS that will likely accelerate southeastward out of the central High Plains. The bulk of this activity should be directed into Oklahoma, but could potentially threaten KCDS (at a minimum) toward Saturday morning. Hence we have included a PROB30 group at KCDS between 9Z and 15Z. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds as well as brief heavy downpours that could temporarily reduce the visibility below VFR. Outside of storm impacts, light winds and VFR will be the rule. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018/ DISCUSSION... Moist weakly unstable atmosphere to continue for the next few days with a few opportunities for rain as upper air pattern undergoes some minor changes into the weekend and early next week. A front late in the weekend into early next week may provide some focus for an increase in coverage for rain. This evening, HRRR has been consistent in developing a few showers/storms across the middle part of the CWA from the western South Plains across Lubbock into the Rolling Plains...with convective activity decreasing after 02z. Chance pops justified given active Cu field, moisture convergence, and weak instability with insolation in this area. Deeper convergence indicated via SPC Mesoanalysis toward Childress where slightly higher pops maintained. Convection in SE CO/NE NM expected to grow upscale into complex and propagate southeastward toward NW OK after midnight, likely to remain NE of the LUB forecast area although have noticed that some decaying complex/outflow may move across the SE Panhandle overnight in 09-12Z time frame as indicated by 12z WRF-ARW, NMMB, and WRF-NSSL. Several disturbances will continue to move through weak NW flow aloft the next few days and each will enhance precipitation primarily to our north and northeast. Models are advertising front in wake of more significant shortwave sometime in the Sunday night through Monday time frame. This cooler air will be reinforced by convective activity moving southeast into the Southern Plains. This idea is certainly supported by guidance temps back in the 80s over most of our region. Precip. pushes farther south into SW Texas and west into eastern NM by mid week with rising temps and diminishing rain chances by mid week. Back to flatter upper pattern and weakening NW flow aloft along eastern periphery of ridge late in the week, very similar then to the current pattern. James && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 23/33
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
820 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .AVIATION... Mainly high/some mid clouds overnight, with clouds increasing on Saturday. Even then, mainly VFR conditions will hold in much of the state. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in southwest Arkansas tonight, with scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms in all but the northeast counties on Saturday. Winds will vary from northeast to southeast tonight/Saturday. Speeds in most areas will be less than 10 mph. (46) && .UPDATE... New thunderstorms popping up in southeast Oklahoma this evening. HRRR simulated radar showing additional development across southwest Arkansas overnight, and into south central/southeast sections Saturday morning. Increased chances of rain across the south later tonight/Saturday to go with already high POPS Satuday across the western half of the state. (46) && .SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday Frontal boundary was located in the vicinity of the AR/LA border this aftn. Just a few SHRA/TSRA have been noted acrs the SW half of the FA this aftn as well. Plan to leave SLGT CHC PoPs in for parts of S AR this evening for any lingering rainfall. Meanwhile, drier air wl cont to filter into N AR tngt. Later tngt and Sat, the aforementioned front wl begin to lift aback to the N as a warm front. This wl be in response to an upper lvl impulse dropping to the SE fm the Plains States. An MCS is fcst to organize acrs KS overnight and eventually work to the SE late tngt into Sat, but is fcst to be weakening. However, additional convection wl be possible by Sat aftn as the upper energy interacts with the front ovr S AR. Still cannot rule out some strong/severe storms, with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. Locally heavy rainfall wl be less of a concern. Looks like we will see a lull in rain chances Sat ngt into Sun as we await the arrival of another upper lvl system fm the NW. Rain chances wl incrs fm the NW on Sun, with the highest PoPs over NW AR. The unsettled wx pattern wl cont thru the end of the weekend. Clouds and rain chances wl cont to keep temps in most areas below seasonal norms. The exception wl be over the southern parts of the FA that wl rmn in the warm sector. && .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday Biggest story of the long term period will be the increased chances for rainfall, and the resulting cooler temperatures. At the start of the long term portion of the forecast ridging over the SW will still be in place, with broad troughing seen over the north and east. This will provide an active, northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas. With time, a trough will begin to deepen over the central part of the country and will make its way southeast. Pieces of energy will ride around the trough and rotate over the state, providing enough lift for rain and thunderstorm development. Late Sunday into Monday, a surface low will begin to develop over the area and drag a cold front through with it. With higher than normal moisture in place over the area and the slow progression of the trough, some locally heavy rainfall will be seen over the state. Rain chances will taper off from west to east on Tuesday with drier air filtering in. The upper trough will lift east and surface high pressure will build in over the area. Temperatures during the early part of next week will be 5 to as much as 15 degrees below normal. By later in the week, the surface ridge will drift east and south to southeasterly flow near the surface will return. Temperatures will begin to return to near normal for early August. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Short Term...44 / Long Term...67
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
513 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer than average temperatures will persist into early next week. There will be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Monday and Tuesday will be quite hot with temperatures in the upper 90s with many locations in central and eastern Washington exceeding 100 degrees. The arrival of a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday will return temperatures closer to average by the middle of next week and bring breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday night: A weakening area of low pressure aloft will remain over the region keeping a threat for isolated thunderstorms this evening and into Saturday. 2PM satellite imagery indicates a wedge of moisture residing between a shortwave slowly sagging across the International Border and warm high pressure over Northern Oregon. So far this afternoon, a few thunderstorms have developed in North Idaho but cumulus fields continue to grow in the Cascades and an area of darkening south of Seattle will be crossing the Cascades and moving along the Hwy 2 corridor this evening. Consequently, I anticipate surface based convection to resurface in the N Cascades the next few hours then additional development to develop around the northern Waterville Plateau and slowly drift east between Hwy 2 and Hwy 20 this evening and overnight. HRRR has begun to slow this feature down further which may not reach the Spokane-Cd`A area until earlier Saturday morning. Overall, the forecast carries moderate uncertainty given differing solutions and potential for outflow boundaries to add additional complexity. This band of showers will slowly decay Saturday morning. The trof sagging in from the north will continue to drift south bringing a drier northerly flow further into N WA. This should result in a slight shift in the threat for thunderstorms along the existing moisture axis focusing closer to a line from Chelan County to Shoshone County a few cells may impact the Palouse and lower Basin. Once again, this will be a another small and low confidence threat given lack of strong atmospheric forcing. The trof will finally weaken and move out on Sunday with dry weather expected and beginning of the next warming trend. /sb Monday and Tuesday...Monday and Tuesday promise to be blisteringly hot over much of the region as the four corners high aggressively amplifies over the region and an approaching offshore trough allows southwest flow to bring warmer air into the area. Tuesday appears to be the hottest day...almost certainly to be the hottest day this year so far...with temperatures in the upper 90s to slightly above the century mark at most populated lower elevations. With most high temperature records solidly in the triple digits for this time of year...some locations may come within spitting distance of a record on Tuesday but current guidance suggests generally speaking most locations will fall short of record highs. Tuesday night through Wednesday night...This period will bring the the upper ridge breakdown and subsequent cooling trend. Latest models seem to be coming into agreement with timing...a marine push through the Cascade gaps late Tuesday for breezy conditions and then the main frontal passage either Tuesday night or Wednesday across the rest of the forecast area. This will allow Wednesday to be noticeably cooler than Tuesday 7 to 10 degrees cooler...but also quite breezy over much of the area. Confidence is fairly high that the winds will materialize with this front...but these patterns have been known to bring a thunder threat as well. Currently none of the model guidance is suggesting much of a thunderstorm threat with this breakdown...but it is still 5 days away and pattern recognition suggests it is worth introducing a mention of thunderstorms for the eastern mountain zones. This part of the forecast needs to be watched closely and refined as the event nears over the next few days. Thursday through Friday...Models are in pretty good agreement in depicting a more progressive westerly flow under or near the polar storm track through the rest of next week. This strongly suggests more seasonably normal temperatures and potentially persistently breezy conditions especially near the cascade gaps each afternoon and evening. /Fugazzi && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A low pressure trough will hang in over the region through Saturday. The atmosphere is unstable but forcing is very weak. There is too much CIN for thunderstorms at the TAF sites, but isolated thunderstorms will continue to fire over the east slopes of the WA Cascades, mtns of northeast WA and mtns of the ID Panhandle. Its possible that convection over the Cascades will move into KEAT between 02-05Z, but confidence is low. Dry conditions below the base of thunderstorms will support gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms. Convection will decrease overnight with isolated thunderstorms possible again on Saturday over the higher terrain. /SVH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 63 90 64 93 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 58 90 58 92 60 96 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 57 88 58 92 60 95 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 65 97 65 98 66 102 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 55 93 58 96 59 99 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 53 87 54 90 54 93 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 56 86 56 89 56 93 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 64 96 63 99 64 102 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 70 95 69 97 73 100 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 66 97 65 99 69 100 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area tonight, with scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue into the mid-evening hours. The front will stall south of the Mid- Atlantic region over the weekend, then return northward early next week as low pressure aloft reestablishes itself across the eastern United States. Unsettled, wet weather is expected to return early next week and remain in place through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Friday... Have trimmed back the coverage of thunderstorms based on the latest radar trends and latest runs of the NAMNest and RAP guidance. By midnight, the cold front should have made it east of the Blue Ridge. Some question if the front will actually clear the region or if it gets hung up/stalls in eastern Virginia/east- central NC. Will therefore carry lower end chances for showers into the southeastern third of the forecast area for the overnight hours. With a fair shot at wetting rain in the western third of the forecast area and the earlier clearing, kept any overnight patchy fog restricted to the western mountains. Shown lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s along and west of the Blue Ridge, with upper 60s to low 70s from the Blue Ridge foothills east where full cloud clearing will be delayed resulting in likely milder lows. Due to the likely stalled front near our area or more into eastern VA and northeastern NC, we should see variable amounts of cloud cover, tending greatest with southeastern extent. As a shortwave trough/vort max approaches the Tennessee Valley late in the day, could see some westward increase in shower coverage perhaps as far west as the foothills of the Blue Ridge. It looks like areas along the Blue Ridge and points west stand the best chance at seeing better weather conditions once any early-day fog dissipates. Areas from Lynchburg through Wilkesboro southeastward should see at least a fair to good amount of cloud cover with chances for showers. Not exactly a washout for these southeastern locations, but not an ideal day for outdoor plans either. Cloud cover as well will also keep temperatures a little cooler than progged 850 mb temps of +15 to +17C would ordinarily yield under full sunshine. Highs Saturday should range in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 301 PM EDT Friday... Frontal boundary stalls across eastern NC Sat night then lays out west to east Sunday evening, then shifting north across the Virginia late Monday night. For us this means a continued threat of showers/storms, with best chances Sat night-Sunday in the south and east, closer to the frontal and moisture convergence. Best rainfall threat will be Monday into Monday as the front works slowly north and low level flow increases from the southwest. Severe threat is not zero but not expected to be too much as pattern favors a little more clouds. Still cannot rule out some isolated wind damage from wet microburst Sunday and Monday afternoon. No change in temps with lows in the 60s, highs in the 80s, with some 70s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Active, wet, and unsettled pattern to continue as broad upper trough persists across the Great Lakes and continues to very slowly retrograde with a strong subtropical ridge anchored just off the east coast. This puts the eastern U.S. in a very moist conveyer belt of Gulf Moisture and subjected to periodic disturbances tracking around the broad upper trough. Look for scattered to numerous and widespread showers and thunderstorms each day with certainly a diurnal uptick in activity. Toward the very end of the period, precipitation chances may drop 10% or so as the upper ridge and upper trough continue to retrograde, but this is expected to have little overall impact on the weather across our region during this period. Will continue to mention the threat of daily rainfall and flooding concerns in the HWO. Temperatures during the period will average slightly below normal for highs due to rain/clouds, and slightly warmer at night for the same reason. Humidity levels will be high through the period. 850mb temperatures change little through the period, hovering most of the week in the +16C to +18C range. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Friday... Coverage of thunderstorms was diminishing across Virginia, West Virginia and North Carolina early this evening. One storm was just west of KBLF and weakening but may reach the vicinity of the airport before 01Z. Otherwise have removed precipitation from local airports. Ceilings were VFR this evening and as a front progresses into southeast Virginia and northern North Carolina clouds will erode in the drier air behind the boundary. Have MVFR fog in the KBLF, KLWB and KBCB TAFs for late tonight due to the clearing and mild surface dewpoints but these locations did not have rain Friday so confidence for fog formation is average. Best chance for thunderstorms will be around KDAN Saturday afternoon near the stalled front. Probability was too low to include in the TAF at this time. Above average confidence of VFR conditions once any fog burns off in the morning and outside of any thunderstorms during the afternoon. Extended Aviation: The front will move south of the area returns north and stall over the region early next week. Through Tuesday will be mostly VFR to MVFR, outside of early morning fog/low clouds, with the potential for multi periods of sub- VFR ceilings and visibilities in rain, showers, and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, especially Monday and Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AL NEAR TERM...AL SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AL/AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
649 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Look for VFR conditions to dominate through Saturday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) An upper level ridge remains centered over the Desert Southwest, with the ridge extending east-southeast through Texas and Louisiana, while an upper level trough moves over the Midwest. At the surface, a weak low was east of the Big Country region, with a pseudo dry- line oriented west to east across the Big Country, with dewpoints into the high 50s/low 60s north of it and upper 40s/low 50s south of it. It is along and near this line in the Big Country and northern Heartland that the HRRR and TTU-WRF show isolated storms/showers initiating this afternoon and evening, so forecast shows a slight chance of thunderstorms for those areas through 10 pm today. Also, a line of storms will likely be moving across the Panhandle late tonight, and there`s a chance that a few of the storms could clip Haskell and Throckmorton counties early Saturday morning. Otherwise/Elsewhere, it looks like a dry forecast through Saturday afternoon, with highs in the upper 90s/low 100s and highs Saturday a degree or two higher (due to some strengthening of the 850 mb thermal ridge). Lows tonight look to be in the low 70s along the I- 10 corridor and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Saturday) ..A short reprieve from the heat with a chance of showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast... The month of July has been very hot and dry across all of West Central Texas. Rainfall has been rare for our area and most locations are seeing some levels of drought conditions. San Angelo has only picked up 0.39" of rain this month. Abilene`s monthly rainfall total so far is 1.05". Abilene is running a -3.94" rainfall deficit for the year. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible as we go into next week across these areas. (Sunday through Wednesday) Sunday will be the last day of triple digit heat that has plagued the area over the past several weeks. Most everyone will see temperatures in the 100 to 103 degree range under plenty of sunshine. The upper level ridge will begin to retrograde back west late Sunday night, allowing for the upper level flow to switch to the northwest and an upper level trough to move out of the upper Midwest and bring a cold front south across the southern plains. Models disagree on the arrival of the front, the GFS brings the front through the area during the day on Monday, while the ECMWF is a bit slower with the front, and has it moving through the area late Monday night and into Tuesday. Decided to take a blend of the outputs and have the front across the area Monday afternoon. The best chances for rain on Monday will be across the Big Country where moderate moisture return will be in place and this area will be closer to the upper level dynamics progged to swing across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle. Temperatures will be in the low 90s across the Big Country, while locations ahead of the front will see temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. The front will continue to slide south across the area and should exit our region by Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area on Tuesday as the front slowly slides south. Rainfall totals with these showers and thunderstorms won`t be drought busters. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.25 - 0.50" range for most locations. Severe weather is not anticipated with the storms. The main hazards will be frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. With the cold front passage and the increase in cloud cover across the area, highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. The front looks to stall out just south of the interstate 10 corridor on Wednesday and some lingering showers and thunderstorms will possible across our southern counties, mainly along and south of a Sterling City to Junction line. Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s. (Thursday through next Saturday) The upper level ridge will begin to move back east toward the western portions of Texas by Thursday. The ridge should remain parked over portions of New Mexico, keeping our area just on the outer eastern fringe of the ridge. This will keep temperatures from approaching the record heat we saw last week, but with the ridge becoming the predominant feature, hot and dry weather will return to West Central Texas. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s on Thursday and Friday, before we get back into the triple digit heat by next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 99 77 102 / 20 5 0 5 San Angelo 74 102 75 103 / 5 5 0 5 Junction 71 101 74 101 / 10 0 0 5 Brownwood 72 101 74 103 / 20 5 5 5 Sweetwater 76 99 77 101 / 20 5 0 5 Ozona 72 98 74 99 / 5 0 0 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
327 PM MST Fri Jul 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Deeper moisture will bring increasing thunderstorm chances into the weekend. We will keep enough of that moisture around for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through much of next week, with temperatures near average. && .DISCUSSION...After a good day of heating we have been quick to get started in favored mountain locations northeast and south of Tucson. Decent moisture with the 12Z KTWC sounding coming in with 1.45 inches of precipitable water, and satellite estimates keeping values near this all the way to the NM border. A little deeper out west where they have had a sustained southerly fetch of surface to lower level moisture over the past couple of days that has also filtered toward our area. The HRRR and HREF ensembles suggest surface based CAPE in excess of 2k J/kg in north-central to northwest Sonora this afternoon, with the northern part of that area extending over the border from Nogales to Sells. Some of our border areas could end up on the northern periphery of a north- central Sonoran MCC in the evening hours. As far as metro Tucson, follow the outflows with late afternoon through mid evening hours favored. Saturday shows even better storm structure potential while maintaining above average moisture for late July. Unless we have significant debris cloud in the morning, earlier development is favored with some support for valley storms. With the high center over shifting toward southern Nevada, we`ll have to keep an eye on moisture trends in New Mexico and Chihuahua to see if we have a slow-down in eastern areas at any point next week. With no break in sight for Sonora though, we should be fine in our corner of the state for at least climo levels of thunderstorms most of next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL with SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL for the TAF period. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA are expected this afternoon and evening with brief MFR conditions possible. Strong and erratic thunderstorm outflows possible, otherwise normal diurnal wind trends. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Our deeper moisture is back, and we expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms into next week along with higher RH values and great overnight recoveries. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and generally under 15 mph for the entire period. An exception will be in and around thunderstorms where gusty and erratic outflow winds will be likely. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Meyer Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at