Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/28/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
832 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Things were quite this evening after a busy afternoon.
There are some showers/isold storms from nrn Weld into sern WY
with stronger storms over nern WY. At this point hard to say
whether activity over nern WY will hold together overnight
and affect portions of the far nern plans. With NW flow aloft in
place will leave in 20 to 30 percent pops across the plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Wave of storms that fired off over the high terrain are spreading
southeastward into areas of higher CAPE and shear as expected. The
activity over the far northeastern corner where dewpoints are
higher continue to be the stronger ones for now, but expecting to
see the storms moving off the higher terrain gain more strength as
they encounter the higher moisture and warmer temperatures later
this afternoon into the early evening. Tornado Watch remains in
effect east of a line from Larimer County down through Elbert and
Lincoln counties, where shear and CAPE will combine east of a
convergence line. Further west, have left Boulder, Jefferson,
Denver and Douglas counties out of the watch due to less
tornadogenesis formation, but still have a chance for severe
strength storms with large hail and strong damaging outflow winds.
Most synoptic and mesoscale models showing activity pushing east
and diminishing/exiting the area by 9pm, however some highres
models showing activity continuing through midnight, with some
waves continuing to push out of the NE/WY area all night. Will
side more with the highres models due to the convection its
picking up on far upstream, and the pattern we`ve been in for the
last few days. A surge from the east due to outflow from
thunderstorms and from a surface high pressure area over the Great
Plains, areas of stratus and possible fog are expected late
tonight into Saturday morning.
The active pattern continues Saturday with slightly lower CAPE
values and slightly lower shear values. Once any stratus burns
off, expect thunderstorms to form over the high terrain again
around noon then spread southeast across the plains yet again. At
this point there`s a chance of severe storms again over the
plains, with slightly lower extremes that we would see. Large hail
up around golf ball size and outflow winds gusting to 70 mph will
be possible. A lower tornado threat as well, but can`t completely
be ruled out.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018
We may see a few more severe thunderstorms shift southeast across
the plains through Saturday evening with the passing shortwave,
sufficient instability, and wind shear. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary threats, although isolated tornadoes are
also possible given sufficient low level inflow and storm
relative helicity.
On Sunday, a cold front arrives which will bring cooler
temperatures. There may be another round of severe weather
depending on the instability along/ahead of the front. At this
time, that severe threat would favor locations from the foothills
to the nearby adjacent plains and Palmer Divide. We should see
rather widespread rain coverage given the synoptic scale lift in
place as seen in the Q-G fields and location of the upper level
jet (actually getting into the left exit region by Sunday
afternoon). That will combine with low level upslope forcing to
create a high chance of measurable rain. We`ll increase PoPs into
the likely category across all of the plains by Sunday evening to
account for this.
Cooler weather will last into Monday with cool and moist shallow
upslope flow. We`ll be quite stable on Monday so would expect any
showers/storms to be confined to the high country.
Tuesday through Thursday will feature a warming trend, and the
warmer temperatures will return in the forecast through the end of
next week. We should see a return of monsoonal moisture toward
Thursday and Friday, but the best coverage of afternoon and
evening convection will likely stay in the high country.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 824 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Looks like tstm threat has ended. Latest HRRR shows fog and low
clouds developing late tonight with some potential for dense fog.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
717 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in the Atlantic will direct a moist southerly
flow into the region. Moisture will become deeper early next
week ahead of upper troughing.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Bulk of the shower activity has been across the extreme eastern
portions of the cwa late this afternoon. Weak shortwave moving
across the forecast area has kept scattered thunderstorms going
just outside of the northeastern counties. Expecting this
activity to slowly push further away from the cwa. Latest hrrr
keeps most of the overnight hours dry for the entire forecast
area, and latest forecast update generally goes dry overnight.
Lows overnight will again be in the low to mid 70s with a chance
for fog and stratus near daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday looks like the driest day for the Midlands and CSRA as
a weak disturbance moves through and pushes the high moisture
plume just offshore. With more sunshine, temps should get into
the mid 90s everywhere by afternoon. There will still be a low
end chance of late day thunderstorms, with the highest POPs once
again in the eastern half of the CWA.
On Sunday...the moisture will slowly be increasing again as a weak
disturbance rounding the Atlantic ridge moves towards the area from
Florida. The models differ somewhat on the westward extent of the
deepest moisture, however, with the GFS further west than the
European. I`ve opted for a blend, which gives my slightly higher
POPs than on Saturday, but still seasonable with the highest values
once again in the eastern half of the FA. Temps will range from the
low 90s in the east to the mid 90s northwest where there will be
some more sunshine.
As mid level heights build in from the east, the deep moisture feed
along the coast will retrograde a little, bringing higher PWs into
the region. This will cause an increase in clouds and chances for
convection, especially later in the day during the time of maximum
heating. I have gone for likely POPs. With the additional cloud
cover, temps should be a couple of degrees lower than on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main message for the extended period is the threat for heavy
rain. All deterministic models and their ensemble means indicate the
area will reside between a strong upper ridge over the western
Atlantic and an upper trof over the Mississippi and Ohio River
Valleys. Deep south to southwesterly flow will draw plentiful
moisture into the Carolinas and Georgia, with PWS AOA 2 inches for a
better part of the week. It is too difficult to time specific
disturbances that could enhance the rainfall this far in advance,
but strong upper diffluence will support widespread convection each
day.
With plentiful cloud cover expected, afternoon temperatures will be
a little below normal as highs will have a tough time breaking above
90. Lows will be in the seasonal mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection has dissipated and/or moved well away from our TAF
sites. Fair with VFR expected in the near term. Some questions
about fog/stratus potential for late tonight. Guidance yielding
mixed results. A front will approach the northern forecast area
(FA) late tonight. Some residual mid level cloudiness may
inhibit best fog/stratus formation. For now, will indicate tempo
MVFR at CAE/CUB, with IFR at fog prone AGS/OGB. Front will
stall near our central to southern FA Saturday afternoon. For
now, will indicate VCTS for late Saturday afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms, and late night/early morning fog/stratus.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
936 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Showers continue to form along and north of the international
border. This activity is drifting farther south through the
northern part of northeast Minnesota. Latest short term mesoscale
models point toward additional showers affecting northeast
Minnesota overnight. Have updated pops/weather/QPF to account for
this trend.
UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Thunderstorms just north of the Canadian border will cross into
Koochiching and northern St. Louis counties late this afternoon.
Have bumped up pops and added the thunder mention to this area.
Rest of the forecast in the ballpark.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Conditions are looking mostly dry through Saturday morning before a
small chance for showers and thunderstorms develop Saturday
afternoon. For tonight, Canadian high pressure will build across
southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Both the 27.12z GFS and
NAM are progging a very dry atmospheric profile over the region,
with dry air below at least 3 to 4 kft. With the dry air in place,
fog development doesn`t appear likely, despite very light winds
overnight. Mostly clear skies will develop overnight. The latest
runs of the HRRR and RAP models are showing a cluster of heavier
rain showers to develop later this afternoon and evening over areas
north of Hibbing and Eveleth towards Crane Lake, but confidence is
on the lower side much will reach the ground since the boundary
layer is so dry. Still, introduced a slight chance PoP over this
area for this evening.
The flow will remain northwesterly through the day Saturday due to a
cut-off upper-level low that will continue to slowly progress
eastward over far eastern Ontario. A very weak maxima of positive
vorticity advection (PVA) will linger over central Minnesota and
west- central Wisconsin, which should provide enough forcing for
some small chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Very
weak convergence along this maxima will be present as well.
Soundings indicate that there will be a small degree of
instability present to support some stronger updrafts, with mixed-
layer CAPE values in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. However, very
little in the way of deep- layer shear will inhibit stronger
updrafts. The highest chances of showers and storms will be over
the Brainerd Lakes region near the PVA maxima. Highs Saturday will
be a little warmer than they were today, but near normal for this
time of the year, in the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
The weather across the Northland will be dominated by a broad trough
of low pressure early in the period, with northwest flow expected
for the rest of the period as well. A shortwave will bring a chance
of thunderstorms to the region on Sunday afternoon. The storms are
not expected to be severe, and we will only have small POP`s due to
the limited expected coverage of convective activity. Shortwave
ridging will then move into the region on Monday night and Tuesday,
before a cold front drops southward across the Northland on Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This front could bring showers and
thunderstorms during that time frame, spreading from north to south.
High pressure will then move in on Wednesday night and Thursday,
bringing dry weather to the region for much of the last part of the
work week. Return flow will then set up late in the week, with
showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west. Wednesday is
shaping up to be the most cool, with highs ranging from the 60s to
lower 70s. Overnight lows will range from the 40s to the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
A batch of showers, with a few lightning strikes, was moving over
INL at the start of the forecast. This activity will depart by
02Z at the latest. Elsewhere, scattered to broken cumulus clouds
at the start of the forecast will diminish fairly quickly leaving
a clear sky. High pressure will build across the terminals through
the forecast with VFR. Another broken layer of cumulus clouds
around 6K feet is forecast Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 77 56 78 / 10 10 10 20
INL 51 78 53 79 / 60 10 10 10
BRD 53 77 56 78 / 0 30 10 20
HYR 49 77 52 79 / 0 20 10 30
ASX 55 79 56 79 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GSF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1103 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the region
this afternoon. A hint of fall was noted as temperatures
were in the 60s to around 70.
For the remainder of the afternoon, there is still a small
chance of showers along the Interstate/Highway 41 corridor
eastward to Lake Michigan. Latest HRRR continued to depict
a few showers across portions of the Fox Valley east to
the lake through 01z. Will continue to the small chances
of showers in this region. Otherwise, skies will become
mostly clear tonight with some patchy fog possible across
central and north-central Wisconsin.
Any fog should burn off by 8 am Saturday morning. Cumulus
field will develop again by late morning. An upper level
disturbance will drop southeast into the area during the
afternoon. Bufkit soundings indicated around 500 J/KG of
cape and mid level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM to support
shower and a few thunderstorms. Have added thunderstorms
to the forecast Saturday afternoon. Severe weather is
not expected. High temperatures on Saturday should be
closer to normal.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
The latest medium range models continue to show that above normal
upper heights will be present on the coasts of the North American
continent for much of this forecast period. Upper troughing will
extend from Hudson Bay, across the western Great Lakes to the
southern Mississippi Valley. As the flow flattens by next weekend,
could see the heat and humidity return. But until then, this
pattern will be favorable for afternoon pop up showers/isolated
storms and near normal or slightly below normal temps. Some detail
differences begin to become apparent starting around Tuesday in the
medium range models. But in general, a blend of the ecmwf/gfs will
work.
Saturday night through Sunday night...Shortwave energy will be
moving across the region on Saturday evening. With mid-level lapse
rates around 6.5 c/km and lingering daytime instability, could see
the chance for isolated showers and storms to persist for the first
few hours of the evening, mainly from central to northeast WI. Skies
should then partially clear overnight, which could lead to some
patchy fog formation, particularly over the northwoods, and possibly
in those locations that receive some rainfall earlier on Saturday.
With daytime heating, instability will build again on Sunday
afternoon which could lead to more isolated showers/storms. Just
like on Saturday night, patchy fog could develop late. No
significant changes to temps.
Rest of the forecast...Upper troughing will linger across the area
on Monday, before consolidating and closing off over the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Therefore, think chances for an
isolated shower will be a tad higher on Monday. The next best
chance for widespread showers/storms looks to occur on Wednesday and
Wednesday night when a cold front slides southeast across the
region. 700mb winds are only projected to be in the 15 to 20 kt
range at this time, so not thinking much of a threat of severe
weather. Another cool airmass will settle in behind the front for
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Broken vfr cigs mainly over far eastern Wisconsin through about 08
UTC otherwise mostly clear skies and light winds overnight.
VFR conditions will prevail across the entire forecast area on
Saturday. However, an upper-level disturbance is forecast to
approach the forecast areas during peak heating Saturday
afternoon. This will result in a gradual increase in clouds
especially north of I29 during the afternoon along with a slight
chance for showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm by late
afternoon. South of I29 including eastcentral Wisconsin, any
showers that develop will be a bit later in the day mainly after
21 UTC. Given that the forecast coverage for any shower activity
is still uncertain it was not explicitely included in this TAF
issuance.
.KOSH...Bkn VFR cigs will scattered out by 07 UTC. Northwest
winds of around 5 to 10 mph will become light overnight. VFR
conditions expected for Saturday with a gradual increase in clouds
during the afternoon. Winds will are forecast to be more westerly
at 5 to 10 mph. There is a slight chance of a shower or perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm generally after 21 UTC. Confidence on
timing and coverage is low thus opted not to include in this TAF
issuance.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ESB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
On the synoptic scale, an intense mid/upper low is centered just
north of the Great Lakes region with a trough draped across much
of the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front
extends from just ahead of this upper low through the Ohio,
Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys and becomes stationary
across the Southern Plains, Southern Rockies, and into the Great
Basin. In the west, a very broad/weak mid/upper ridge is located
over the western CONUS. However, a shortwave disturbance has
initiated thunderstorm development in the vicinity of northern
Colorado, eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. The convective
development is expected to continue as the complex of storms moves
closer to western and eventually central Kansas later this evening
and overnight tonight. This will be what brings chances of strong
and severe storms into western portions of the local forecast area
this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
As mentioned above, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) is
expected to make its way into western Kansas this afternoon,
reaching Central Kansas later this evening. Strong and severe
storms are expected where a max of MLCAPE and effective bulk
shear in excess of 50kts will be located in western parts of the
state. The MCS is expected to slowly weaken as it progresses off
to the southeast later tonight, but the main challenge for central
and south central Kansas will be pinpointing the track of the
storms. Latest models show a variety of solutions regarding how
far east the storms will progress. For example, the latest HRRR
and RAP both bring the storms further east into central Kansas and
then south into portions of south central Kansas late this
evening. The 12Z NAM and Hi-Res models keep the vast majority of
convection tonight just to the west of the forecast area. Overall,
thinking that the best chance to see strong or severe storms will
be along and west of I-135, with severe storm chances greatly
diminishing further east. Main threats will be damaging winds,
large hail, and heavy rain. Chances of showers and storms will
linger into Saturday morning across much of the area, but by this
time intensity will have weakened quite a bit.
Another round of storms is expected to move into the area from
the northwest again late Saturday night/Sunday morning after a
lull Saturday afternoon. Timing will be the main challenge here,
as the 12z NAM does not bring storms into central Kansas until
early Sunday morning. The ECMWF is more progressive with timing,
allowing for convective initiation a few hours earlier, while the
GFS lies somewhere in between. As previous discussions have
indicated, higher confidence remains along southern Kansas where
higher precipitable water values are expected and heavy rainfall
and localized flooding may result. With only marginal
instability, lapse rates, and shear, confidence in severe storms
remains fairly low, though a few stronger storms will be possible.
Sunday afternoon into Monday, there remains fairly good agreement
that another round of widespread rainfall will be possible across
the area as an upper trough sags down across eastern Kansas and
into the Mississippi Valley by mid week. Widespread severe storms
appear unlikely as instability will remain marginal at best, but a
lot will depend on how the Friday and Saturday night storms play
out. Regarding temperatures, lowered afternoon highs on both
Sunday and Monday from previous forecasts and initial loaded
blend due to lingering showers/storms, cloud cover, wet ground,
and moist easterly flow.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
After storms clear on Monday night into early Tuesday, the pattern
will become much less active as drier air moves over the region.
Expect a slow warming trend by mid-week with highs recovering
back into the low 90s by Thursday-Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
Challenging aviation forecast with eastward extent of storm
evolution less than clear, as models do not have a good handle on
ongoing storms in the vicinity of KHYS. These storms have
developed on eastern edge of instability, the development of which
was not well forecast by models. Still anticipate storms further
northwest to roll southeast during the evening/overnight, but
anticipated moisture gradient casts doubts about eastern extent of
storms, especially for KSLN and KICT. Upslope flow behind storms
make MVFR ceilings likely enough to mention at KRSL and KSLN. KGBD
is on the cusp and will keep them VFR for now. -Howerton
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 66 87 69 83 / 50 20 50 50
Hutchinson 66 86 67 82 / 50 20 50 50
Newton 66 85 66 82 / 30 30 50 50
ElDorado 66 85 66 81 / 30 30 50 50
Winfield-KWLD 67 87 68 82 / 40 40 50 50
Russell 63 83 65 80 / 70 10 50 40
Great Bend 64 85 65 81 / 80 10 50 40
Salina 64 86 67 82 / 40 30 50 40
McPherson 65 85 66 82 / 40 30 50 50
Coffeyville 67 86 68 82 / 20 50 40 60
Chanute 66 85 67 81 / 20 40 50 60
Iola 65 84 66 80 / 20 40 50 60
Parsons-KPPF 66 85 68 81 / 20 50 40 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAV
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
925 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain west of the area through the weekend into early
next week. As a result, humid and unstable conditions will continue
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The coverage of
storms will likely increase the first part of next week as upper
level impulses move across the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 900 PM Friday...While the coast was left with only some
debris clouds from convection upstream late this afternoon into
this evening, storms blossomed west of I-95. A couple of storms
were producing small hail near Society Hill and Red Springs. A
severe thunderstorm warning was issued near Bennetsville for
wind and hail. Expect these storms to begin to weaken and
diminish over the next few hours. Other storms were located
along lingering boundary or trough just west of the local
forecast area over central NC. The focus should shift once again
to the coast this evening into the overnight hours, but the
models show most activity remaining off the coast with some
brushing the coast heading toward daybreak. Lower clouds and
isolated showers were developing along the coast, mainly south
of Cape Fear. Nocturnal jetting should keep fog at bay but
should leave some low clouds around with mid to high clouds
streaming over the area through the night from convection
upstream. Overall, a very moist column will persist through
tonight.
Previous discussion: Large high pressure offshore and a broad
upper trough to the west is sandwiching the Carolinas in a very
unstable and humid atmosphere. Flow through much of the column
is from the SW, which is keeping PWATs over 2 inches, highest
near the coast, which combined with latest RAP analyzed MLCape
of 2500-3000 J/kg has allowed scattered tstms to develop across
the area. Shear is minimal so organization has not occurred, but
the sea breeze and other boundaries have driven convection
today. There appears to be little mid-level assistance today,
which suggests the convection will dissipate with loss of
heating. Have shown a nocturnal decrease in convection, with
activity shifting and redeveloping off the coast in typical
fashion as instability blossoms as the air temperatures cool
over the warm ocean waters. Some of this activity may push
towards the coast late in the overnight into Saturday morning.
Mins tonight will be quite warm, around 75 most places, and this
combined with a LLJ of 20-25 kts should preclude widespread
fog. However, UPS fog tools and numerical guidance show at least
a chance for some fog as winds ease. Have not shown any in the
wx grids attm, and will need to update with later guidance, but
the potential exists late.
On Saturday, expect a similar evolution to today as the synoptic
pattern is mostly unchanged. Showers/tstms early will develop and
lift along the coast before slowly shifting westward through the
aftn. Once again, boundaries will be the primary driver of
convection in a pulse environment. With high PWATs continuing
coverage will likely be a bit greater than seasonable norms, but
timing exactly when and where tstms will develop will be a now-cast
challenge. Highs on Saturday will again be in the mid to upper 80s,
coolest at the coast or in locations that have more cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...Broad trough across the eastern half of the
country will persist through Sunday night as shortwaves periodically
rotate through its base reinforcing the trough. One of these may
lift NW of the area Sunday aftn, remaining just displaced from the
CWA by ridging to the east. This feature however will likely help to
enhance convection Sunday, as it interacts with a continued very
moist environment with PWATs over 2 inches and high instability.
Another day of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms is
likely, and while diurnal heating will drive much of the activity,
expect an earlier than usual start and greater than climo coverage.
Very low shear Sunday suggests storms won`t organize much, but will
be driven by all boundaries, with periods of very heavy rainfall
likely. Difficult to pinpoint exactly when and where the best rain
chances will be, but will show at least an increase during heating
with lesser chances at night. Clouds/convection will keep highs in
the mid 80s at the coast, around 90 inland. Mins both nights will
remain elevated as warm southerly flow persists, 1-2 degrees either
side of 75, warmest at the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM Friday...A potential for additional bouts of heavy rain
is expected next week. The flow between an H5 subtropical ridge far
off the southeast U.S. coast and developing trough to the west will
direct hard to time impulses across the region Mon-Tue in a moist
environment. The mid/upper trough will deepen by mid-week with the
aforementioned ridge building toward the coast, thus the convective
focus may shift farther inland during Wed-Fri. At the surface, the
old boundary just west of the forecast area will weaken and lift
northward by Tuesday leaving the sea breeze front as a potential
lifting mechanism. Precipitable water will remain high during the
long term, but the axis of highest values will likely shift toward
the inland areas late in the period. Followed a blend of MEX/ECMWF
numbers each period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...SHWRS/TSRA were weakening inland, just west of I-95
with mainly lingering -SHRA over Lumberton area. Other showers
were developing along the Grand Strand near MYR. Expect the
inland storms to dissipate through 02Z and the activity to the
coast. The latest models keep most of the stronger convection
off shore through the morning with some showers brushing the
coastal terminals, but expect some low clouds to develop. Another
day of storms expected on Saturday in a continued moist and
unstable atmosphere ahead of a cold front to our west. Agree
with previous thinking, with little change in the overall
pattern, it is expected that showers will again lift to near the
coast overnight on S/SW winds of 5-10 kts, and have re-
introduced VCSH with MVFR at the coast after midnight. Some fog
is again possible inland overnight but should remain above IFR.
More scattered showers and storms likely on Saturday with SW
winds around 10 kts.
Extended Outlook...VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA each day between the
inland and coastal terminals through the weekend. Increasing
chances for thunderstorms beginning Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 900 PM Friday...Included a brief precautionary statement
with SW winds 15 to 20 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft in northernmost
zone only as models depict a decent nocturnal jet just until
shortly after daybreak. A weak cold front well west of the area
and high pressure offshore sandwich the waters through Saturday.
This will drive the S-SW winds during the period, increasing to
15-20 kts tonight, but otherwise will be 10-15 kts. This setup
produces a wave spectrum comprised of a southerly 5-6 second
wind wave and a 9 sec SE swell. Together, these will produce 3-4
ft seas, reaching up to 5 ft overnight during the stronger
winds. Additionally, scattered showers and tstms are likely to
develop overnight into Saturday morning, producing lightning and
visibility restrictions in briefly heavy rainfall.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...Patten remains unchanged this period with high
pressure to the east and a stalled front to the west. These features
pinch the waters in S/SW winds of 10-15 kts, with little fluctuation
throughout. A southerly wind wave and SE swell will remain the
primary wave groups to produce significant seas of 3-4 ft. Periods
of showers and tstms are likely as well, focused during the
overnights when instability over the waters is greatest.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM Friday...A front will remain north and northwest of
the waters through the period allowing high pressure far off the
southeast U.S. to remain in control. As a result, south-southwest
winds will prevail each day. Speeds will increase at times due to
the pressure gradient tightening. The persistent fetch will likely
lead to a prolong period of choppy/steep waves. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms will persist through the extended. This pattern
also supports a heightened rip current risk, especially south
facing beaches.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JDW/RGZ
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered convection residing across the southern
South and Rolling Plains has remained south of the terminals to
this point. The individual storms are moving very little, but they
will have the potential to redevelop on outflows for the next 2-3
hours before diminishing. Given its proximity to the convection,
KLBB will have the best chance of experiencing an outflow and
perhaps a brief shower or storm this evening. Confidence in a
direct impact is low, but have included VCTS the next couple of
hours at KLBB and will amend as needed. After this evening`s
convection fades we will have to look north to watch for an MCS
that will likely accelerate southeastward out of the central High
Plains. The bulk of this activity should be directed into
Oklahoma, but could potentially threaten KCDS (at a minimum)
toward Saturday morning. Hence we have included a PROB30 group at
KCDS between 9Z and 15Z. Any thunderstorms will be capable of
producing gusty and erratic winds as well as brief heavy downpours
that could temporarily reduce the visibility below VFR. Outside
of storm impacts, light winds and VFR will be the rule.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Moist weakly unstable atmosphere to continue for the next few days
with a few opportunities for rain as upper air pattern undergoes
some minor changes into the weekend and early next week. A front
late in the weekend into early next week may provide some focus
for an increase in coverage for rain.
This evening, HRRR has been consistent in developing a few
showers/storms across the middle part of the CWA from the western
South Plains across Lubbock into the Rolling Plains...with
convective activity decreasing after 02z. Chance pops justified
given active Cu field, moisture convergence, and weak instability
with insolation in this area. Deeper convergence indicated via SPC
Mesoanalysis toward Childress where slightly higher pops
maintained. Convection in SE CO/NE NM expected to grow upscale
into complex and propagate southeastward toward NW OK after
midnight, likely to remain NE of the LUB forecast area although
have noticed that some decaying complex/outflow may move across
the SE Panhandle overnight in 09-12Z time frame as indicated by
12z WRF-ARW, NMMB, and WRF-NSSL.
Several disturbances will continue to move through weak NW flow
aloft the next few days and each will enhance precipitation
primarily to our north and northeast. Models are advertising front
in wake of more significant shortwave sometime in the Sunday
night through Monday time frame. This cooler air will be
reinforced by convective activity moving southeast into the
Southern Plains. This idea is certainly supported by guidance
temps back in the 80s over most of our region. Precip. pushes
farther south into SW Texas and west into eastern NM by mid week
with rising temps and diminishing rain chances by mid week. Back
to flatter upper pattern and weakening NW flow aloft along eastern
periphery of ridge late in the week, very similar then to the
current pattern. James
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
23/33
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
820 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.AVIATION...
Mainly high/some mid clouds overnight, with clouds increasing
on Saturday. Even then, mainly VFR conditions will hold in
much of the state.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in southwest
Arkansas tonight, with scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms
in all but the northeast counties on Saturday.
Winds will vary from northeast to southeast tonight/Saturday.
Speeds in most areas will be less than 10 mph. (46)
&&
.UPDATE...
New thunderstorms popping up in southeast Oklahoma this evening.
HRRR simulated radar showing additional development across southwest
Arkansas overnight, and into south central/southeast sections
Saturday morning. Increased chances of rain across the south later
tonight/Saturday to go with already high POPS Satuday across the
western half of the state. (46)
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Frontal boundary was located in the vicinity of the AR/LA border
this aftn. Just a few SHRA/TSRA have been noted acrs the SW half of
the FA this aftn as well. Plan to leave SLGT CHC PoPs in for parts
of S AR this evening for any lingering rainfall. Meanwhile, drier
air wl cont to filter into N AR tngt.
Later tngt and Sat, the aforementioned front wl begin to lift aback
to the N as a warm front. This wl be in response to an upper lvl
impulse dropping to the SE fm the Plains States. An MCS is fcst to
organize acrs KS overnight and eventually work to the SE late tngt
into Sat, but is fcst to be weakening. However, additional
convection wl be possible by Sat aftn as the upper energy interacts
with the front ovr S AR. Still cannot rule out some strong/severe
storms, with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns.
Locally heavy rainfall wl be less of a concern.
Looks like we will see a lull in rain chances Sat ngt into Sun as we
await the arrival of another upper lvl system fm the NW. Rain
chances wl incrs fm the NW on Sun, with the highest PoPs over NW AR.
The unsettled wx pattern wl cont thru the end of the weekend.
Clouds and rain chances wl cont to keep temps in most areas below
seasonal norms. The exception wl be over the southern parts of the
FA that wl rmn in the warm sector.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Biggest story of the long term period will be the increased chances
for rainfall, and the resulting cooler temperatures. At the start of
the long term portion of the forecast ridging over the SW will still
be in place, with broad troughing seen over the north and east. This
will provide an active, northwesterly flow aloft over Arkansas.
With time, a trough will begin to deepen over the central part of
the country and will make its way southeast. Pieces of energy will
ride around the trough and rotate over the state, providing enough
lift for rain and thunderstorm development. Late Sunday into Monday,
a surface low will begin to develop over the area and drag a cold
front through with it. With higher than normal moisture in place
over the area and the slow progression of the trough, some locally
heavy rainfall will be seen over the state. Rain chances will taper
off from west to east on Tuesday with drier air filtering in.
The upper trough will lift east and surface high pressure will build
in over the area. Temperatures during the early part of next week
will be 5 to as much as 15 degrees below normal. By later in the
week, the surface ridge will drift east and south to southeasterly
flow near the surface will return. Temperatures will begin to return
to near normal for early August.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...44 / Long Term...67
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
513 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer than average temperatures will persist into early next
week. There will be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms
through Saturday. Monday and Tuesday will be quite hot with
temperatures in the upper 90s with many locations in central and
eastern Washington exceeding 100 degrees. The arrival of a cold
front late Tuesday into Wednesday will return temperatures closer
to average by the middle of next week and bring breezy conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night: A weakening area of low pressure
aloft will remain over the region keeping a threat for isolated
thunderstorms this evening and into Saturday. 2PM satellite
imagery indicates a wedge of moisture residing between a shortwave
slowly sagging across the International Border and warm high
pressure over Northern Oregon. So far this afternoon, a few
thunderstorms have developed in North Idaho but cumulus fields
continue to grow in the Cascades and an area of darkening south of
Seattle will be crossing the Cascades and moving along the Hwy 2
corridor this evening. Consequently, I anticipate surface based
convection to resurface in the N Cascades the next few hours then
additional development to develop around the northern Waterville
Plateau and slowly drift east between Hwy 2 and Hwy 20 this
evening and overnight. HRRR has begun to slow this feature down
further which may not reach the Spokane-Cd`A area until earlier
Saturday morning. Overall, the forecast carries moderate
uncertainty given differing solutions and potential for outflow
boundaries to add additional complexity.
This band of showers will slowly decay Saturday morning. The trof
sagging in from the north will continue to drift south bringing a
drier northerly flow further into N WA. This should result in a
slight shift in the threat for thunderstorms along the existing
moisture axis focusing closer to a line from Chelan County to
Shoshone County a few cells may impact the Palouse and lower
Basin. Once again, this will be a another small and low
confidence threat given lack of strong atmospheric forcing.
The trof will finally weaken and move out on Sunday with dry
weather expected and beginning of the next warming trend. /sb
Monday and Tuesday...Monday and Tuesday promise to be
blisteringly hot over much of the region as the four corners high
aggressively amplifies over the region and an approaching offshore
trough allows southwest flow to bring warmer air into the area.
Tuesday appears to be the hottest day...almost certainly to be the
hottest day this year so far...with temperatures in the upper 90s
to slightly above the century mark at most populated lower
elevations. With most high temperature records solidly in the
triple digits for this time of year...some locations may come
within spitting distance of a record on Tuesday but current
guidance suggests generally speaking most locations will fall
short of record highs.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...This period will bring
the the upper ridge breakdown and subsequent cooling trend. Latest
models seem to be coming into agreement with timing...a marine
push through the Cascade gaps late Tuesday for breezy conditions
and then the main frontal passage either Tuesday night or
Wednesday across the rest of the forecast area. This will allow
Wednesday to be noticeably cooler than Tuesday 7 to 10 degrees
cooler...but also quite breezy over much of the area. Confidence
is fairly high that the winds will materialize with this
front...but these patterns have been known to bring a thunder
threat as well. Currently none of the model guidance is suggesting
much of a thunderstorm threat with this breakdown...but it is
still 5 days away and pattern recognition suggests it is worth
introducing a mention of thunderstorms for the eastern mountain
zones. This part of the forecast needs to be watched closely and
refined as the event nears over the next few days.
Thursday through Friday...Models are in pretty good agreement in
depicting a more progressive westerly flow under or near the polar
storm track through the rest of next week. This strongly suggests
more seasonably normal temperatures and potentially persistently
breezy conditions especially near the cascade gaps each afternoon
and evening. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A low pressure trough will hang in over the region
through Saturday. The atmosphere is unstable but forcing is very
weak. There is too much CIN for thunderstorms at the TAF sites,
but isolated thunderstorms will continue to fire over the east
slopes of the WA Cascades, mtns of northeast WA and mtns of the ID
Panhandle. Its possible that convection over the Cascades will
move into KEAT between 02-05Z, but confidence is low. Dry
conditions below the base of thunderstorms will support gusty
outflow winds from thunderstorms. Convection will decrease
overnight with isolated thunderstorms possible again on Saturday
over the higher terrain. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 63 90 64 93 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 58 90 58 92 60 96 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
Pullman 57 88 58 92 60 95 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 65 97 65 98 66 102 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Colville 55 93 58 96 59 99 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 53 87 54 90 54 93 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Kellogg 56 86 56 89 56 93 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
Moses Lake 64 96 63 99 64 102 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 70 95 69 97 73 100 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 66 97 65 99 69 100 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area tonight, with scattered showers
and thunderstorms to continue into the mid-evening hours. The
front will stall south of the Mid- Atlantic region over the
weekend, then return northward early next week as low pressure
aloft reestablishes itself across the eastern United States.
Unsettled, wet weather is expected to return early next week and
remain in place through much of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...
Have trimmed back the coverage of thunderstorms based on the
latest radar trends and latest runs of the NAMNest and RAP
guidance.
By midnight, the cold front should have made it east of the
Blue Ridge. Some question if the front will actually clear the
region or if it gets hung up/stalls in eastern Virginia/east-
central NC. Will therefore carry lower end chances for showers
into the southeastern third of the forecast area for the
overnight hours. With a fair shot at wetting rain in the western
third of the forecast area and the earlier clearing, kept any
overnight patchy fog restricted to the western mountains. Shown
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s along and west of the Blue
Ridge, with upper 60s to low 70s from the Blue Ridge foothills
east where full cloud clearing will be delayed resulting in
likely milder lows.
Due to the likely stalled front near our area or more into eastern
VA and northeastern NC, we should see variable amounts of cloud
cover, tending greatest with southeastern extent. As a shortwave
trough/vort max approaches the Tennessee Valley late in the day,
could see some westward increase in shower coverage perhaps as far
west as the foothills of the Blue Ridge. It looks like areas along
the Blue Ridge and points west stand the best chance at seeing
better weather conditions once any early-day fog dissipates. Areas
from Lynchburg through Wilkesboro southeastward should see at least
a fair to good amount of cloud cover with chances for showers. Not
exactly a washout for these southeastern locations, but not an ideal
day for outdoor plans either. Cloud cover as well will also keep
temperatures a little cooler than progged 850 mb temps of +15 to
+17C would ordinarily yield under full sunshine. Highs Saturday
should range in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 301 PM EDT Friday...
Frontal boundary stalls across eastern NC Sat night then lays out
west to east Sunday evening, then shifting north across the Virginia
late Monday night.
For us this means a continued threat of showers/storms, with best
chances Sat night-Sunday in the south and east, closer to the
frontal and moisture convergence. Best rainfall threat will be
Monday into Monday as the front works slowly north and low level
flow increases from the southwest.
Severe threat is not zero but not expected to be too much as pattern
favors a little more clouds. Still cannot rule out some isolated
wind damage from wet microburst Sunday and Monday afternoon.
No change in temps with lows in the 60s, highs in the 80s, with some
70s in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...
Active, wet, and unsettled pattern to continue as broad upper
trough persists across the Great Lakes and continues to very slowly
retrograde with a strong subtropical ridge anchored just off the
east coast. This puts the eastern U.S. in a very moist conveyer belt
of Gulf Moisture and subjected to periodic disturbances tracking
around the broad upper trough. Look for scattered to numerous and
widespread showers and thunderstorms each day with certainly a
diurnal uptick in activity. Toward the very end of the period,
precipitation chances may drop 10% or so as the upper ridge and
upper trough continue to retrograde, but this is expected to have
little overall impact on the weather across our region during this
period. Will continue to mention the threat of daily rainfall and
flooding concerns in the HWO.
Temperatures during the period will average slightly below normal
for highs due to rain/clouds, and slightly warmer at night for the
same reason. Humidity levels will be high through the period.
850mb temperatures change little through the period, hovering
most of the week in the +16C to +18C range.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...
Coverage of thunderstorms was diminishing across Virginia, West
Virginia and North Carolina early this evening. One storm was
just west of KBLF and weakening but may reach the vicinity of
the airport before 01Z. Otherwise have removed precipitation
from local airports. Ceilings were VFR this evening and as a
front progresses into southeast Virginia and northern North
Carolina clouds will erode in the drier air behind the boundary.
Have MVFR fog in the KBLF, KLWB and KBCB TAFs for late tonight
due to the clearing and mild surface dewpoints but these
locations did not have rain Friday so confidence for fog
formation is average.
Best chance for thunderstorms will be around KDAN Saturday
afternoon near the stalled front. Probability was too low to
include in the TAF at this time. Above average confidence of VFR
conditions once any fog burns off in the morning and outside of
any thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Extended Aviation:
The front will move south of the area returns north and stall
over the region early next week. Through Tuesday will be mostly
VFR to MVFR, outside of early morning fog/low clouds, with the
potential for multi periods of sub- VFR ceilings and
visibilities in rain, showers, and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening, especially Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...AL
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AL/AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
649 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Look for VFR conditions to dominate through Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
An upper level ridge remains centered over the Desert Southwest,
with the ridge extending east-southeast through Texas and Louisiana,
while an upper level trough moves over the Midwest. At the surface,
a weak low was east of the Big Country region, with a pseudo dry-
line oriented west to east across the Big Country, with dewpoints
into the high 50s/low 60s north of it and upper 40s/low 50s south of
it. It is along and near this line in the Big Country and northern
Heartland that the HRRR and TTU-WRF show isolated storms/showers
initiating this afternoon and evening, so forecast shows a slight
chance of thunderstorms for those areas through 10 pm today. Also, a
line of storms will likely be moving across the Panhandle late
tonight, and there`s a chance that a few of the storms could clip
Haskell and Throckmorton counties early Saturday morning.
Otherwise/Elsewhere, it looks like a dry forecast through Saturday
afternoon, with highs in the upper 90s/low 100s and highs Saturday a
degree or two higher (due to some strengthening of the 850 mb
thermal ridge). Lows tonight look to be in the low 70s along the I-
10 corridor and mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
..A short reprieve from the heat with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms returning to the forecast...
The month of July has been very hot and dry across all of West
Central Texas. Rainfall has been rare for our area and most
locations are seeing some levels of drought conditions. San
Angelo has only picked up 0.39" of rain this month. Abilene`s
monthly rainfall total so far is 1.05". Abilene is running a
-3.94" rainfall deficit for the year. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible as we go into next week across these areas.
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Sunday will be the last day of triple digit heat that has plagued
the area over the past several weeks. Most everyone will see
temperatures in the 100 to 103 degree range under plenty of
sunshine. The upper level ridge will begin to retrograde back west
late Sunday night, allowing for the upper level flow to switch to
the northwest and an upper level trough to move out of the upper
Midwest and bring a cold front south across the southern plains.
Models disagree on the arrival of the front, the GFS brings the
front through the area during the day on Monday, while the ECMWF
is a bit slower with the front, and has it moving through the area
late Monday night and into Tuesday. Decided to take a blend of
the outputs and have the front across the area Monday afternoon.
The best chances for rain on Monday will be across the Big Country
where moderate moisture return will be in place and this area
will be closer to the upper level dynamics progged to swing across
the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle. Temperatures will be in the low 90s
across the Big Country, while locations ahead of the front will
see temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
The front will continue to slide south across the area and should
exit our region by Tuesday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area on Tuesday
as the front slowly slides south. Rainfall totals with these
showers and thunderstorms won`t be drought busters. Rainfall
totals should be in the 0.25 - 0.50" range for most locations.
Severe weather is not anticipated with the storms. The main
hazards will be frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. With the
cold front passage and the increase in cloud cover across the
area, highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The front looks to stall out just south of the interstate 10
corridor on Wednesday and some lingering showers and thunderstorms
will possible across our southern counties, mainly along and
south of a Sterling City to Junction line. Temperatures on
Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s.
(Thursday through next Saturday)
The upper level ridge will begin to move back east toward the
western portions of Texas by Thursday. The ridge should remain
parked over portions of New Mexico, keeping our area just on the
outer eastern fringe of the ridge. This will keep temperatures
from approaching the record heat we saw last week, but with the
ridge becoming the predominant feature, hot and dry weather will
return to West Central Texas. Temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 90s on Thursday and Friday, before we get back into the
triple digit heat by next weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 99 77 102 / 20 5 0 5
San Angelo 74 102 75 103 / 5 5 0 5
Junction 71 101 74 101 / 10 0 0 5
Brownwood 72 101 74 103 / 20 5 5 5
Sweetwater 76 99 77 101 / 20 5 0 5
Ozona 72 98 74 99 / 5 0 0 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
327 PM MST Fri Jul 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Deeper moisture will bring increasing thunderstorm
chances into the weekend. We will keep enough of that moisture
around for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through
much of next week, with temperatures near average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...After a good day of heating we have been quick to
get started in favored mountain locations northeast and south of
Tucson. Decent moisture with the 12Z KTWC sounding coming in with
1.45 inches of precipitable water, and satellite estimates
keeping values near this all the way to the NM border. A little
deeper out west where they have had a sustained southerly fetch of
surface to lower level moisture over the past couple of days that
has also filtered toward our area. The HRRR and HREF ensembles
suggest surface based CAPE in excess of 2k J/kg in north-central
to northwest Sonora this afternoon, with the northern part of that
area extending over the border from Nogales to Sells. Some of our
border areas could end up on the northern periphery of a north-
central Sonoran MCC in the evening hours. As far as metro Tucson,
follow the outflows with late afternoon through mid evening hours
favored.
Saturday shows even better storm structure potential while
maintaining above average moisture for late July. Unless we have
significant debris cloud in the morning, earlier development is
favored with some support for valley storms.
With the high center over shifting toward southern Nevada, we`ll
have to keep an eye on moisture trends in New Mexico and Chihuahua
to see if we have a slow-down in eastern areas at any point next
week. With no break in sight for Sonora though, we should be fine
in our corner of the state for at least climo levels of
thunderstorms most of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-12k ft AGL with SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft
AGL for the TAF period. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA are
expected this afternoon and evening with brief MFR conditions
possible. Strong and erratic thunderstorm outflows possible,
otherwise normal diurnal wind trends. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Our deeper moisture is back, and we expect to see
scattered showers and thunderstorms into next week along with
higher RH values and great overnight recoveries. 20-foot winds
will be terrain driven and generally under 15 mph for the entire
period. An exception will be in and around thunderstorms where
gusty and erratic outflow winds will be likely.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
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