Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/15/18


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
811 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A couple rounds of storms tonight as weak disturbances move through. A slight chance for storms lingers Sunday with warm and moist conditions, then Monday turns even warmer with our best chances for storms Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front. This moves out by early Wednesday with high pressure bringing in sunny and quiet weather for the rest of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 8 pm update... Fairly widespread convection developed this evening within a modestly unstable and low sheared environment. A very moist air mass within a w/nwly flow has supplied the moisture for these storms with the main threats being strong winds from wet microbursts, and locally heavy downpours. The main area of attention continues to be the Elmira/Corning corridor and just to the south of there where radar estimates of rainfall are around 1 to 2 inches in the past 3 hours or so. The back edge of the main batch/heaviest rain is pushing through with a second wave and possibly another 0.5 to 1 inch of rain this hour. So far now hydro issues due to the lack of recent rainfall...so soil conditions are fairly dry, but if any additional rain, or more rain than expected arrives tonight, there may be issues in this area. There is still some uncertainty about what will happen later tonight, but given all the convection this evening...it is likely that the atmosphere will be lacking any instability to support additional widespread storms. Latest HRRR and NAMNest indicating a trend toward minimal convection tonight along the upper s/w. However can`t rule out scattered rain showers with a few weak storms popping up through tonight along and south of the Twin Tiers. Previous Discussion... For the rest of this afternoon and this evening, a convectively induced wave which was more defined this morning was moving toward NY and northern Pa. Visible satellite imagery (red band) shows strong insolation in NY and Pa which will continue to destabilize the atmosphere across central NY and northeast Pa. We expect mixed layer CAPEs to reach close to 1000 J/kg by the time the wave begins to influence our forecast area from late afternoon into the evening. 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes were between 25 and 30 knots with weaker shear below this layer. The effective shear was between 30 and 45 knots in the eastern lakes with this approaching wave presently as per SPC mesoanalysis. Our local severe weather checklist gave us several wind damage events. DCAPEs were running 700-800 J/kg with low-level lapse rates 7.5 to 8 C/km suggesting potential for some decent wind gusts probably in the 40-50 mph realm with a small chance for severe wind gusts. This could be a situation where it won`t take as deep convection to produce stronger wind gusts because of the DCAPE and continuing steepening low-level lapse rates. So we have mainly likely POPs between about 21z and 03z from northwest to southeast across our forecast area. We have potential for strong wind gusts in our HWO and also our one slide DSS briefing. After 03z, the NAMnest suggests another round of convection fires as another short wave seen on the water vapor imagery in the northern lakes drops southeast behind this more convectively induced wave. We continue POPs for showers and thunderstorms well into the night to account for this. If this next batch becomes more extensive then we will have to be concerned for localized flood potential. There is uncertainty related to this as the NAMnest now indicate a very progressive looking broken line of storms. The HRRR also suggests more progressive storms. Precipitable water values are around 1.75 inches. So we did continue mention of locally heavy rainfall for all storms late afternoon through this evening at least in HWO, grids and our one slide DSS briefing. For Sunday, there will be a left-over boundary which could be convectively induced in the vicinity of the NY/PA border. Another mid-level wave(Illinois MCV?) will move toward NY and PA and provide more lifting to trigger more showers and storms with a focus on the stalled boundary. So we continued slight chance to chance POPs with the highest POPs in northeast Pa/southern Tier of NY. One again, CAPES will be decent and potentially higher than today with the NAM having mixed layer CAPEs over 2000 J/kg. Bulk shears 0-6 km are fairly weak though. Precipitable water values are a bit higher pushing 2 inches suggesting again locally heavy rainfall. There is more uncertainty Sunday because the convection that will influence this mid-level wave is still forming. SPC has area in general thunder so we will not enhance wording at this juncture. WPC also does not have our area in any flash flood risk as well. Sunday night, upper level ridging builds in and we dry things out. However, convectively induced waves could mess this up but we will hold course on less than 15 POPs for now looking at the 4 main synoptic models and the positioning of the upper level ridge axis overhead and to our east. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Our region will be in a southwest flow pattern with a cold front to the west and a high pressure system off the east coast on Monday. Warm and moist air will continue to advect into the region. Operational models and the respective ensembles are fairly consistent with a frontal timing on Tuesday. Moisture and lift will be sufficient enough to produce showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. The highest chances for showers and storms continue to be Monday night and Tuesday and we continued likely pops. PW values look to rise to around 2 inches, so we have added heavy rain wording to the forecast with the storms. Instability and shear both look on the marginal side for any strong to severe storms along with poor frontal timing for any severe event. Temperatures have trended upward Monday given modeled 925 mb temperatures around 25C should get many locations near or even slightly above 90. With the added humidity, locations from the Finger Lakes and Elmira northeast toward Syracuse and Rome may see top heat index values near 95. We have added wording to the HWO for this possibility. Lows will be muggy both Monday night in the 60`s. Cooler and drier air will come in behind the front later on Tuesday with a slow decrease in storms from west to east throughout the day. Highs should cool back into the 70`s and low 80`s with lows Tuesday night generally falling back into the 50`s to around 60. Winds look to be around or under 10 mph outside any thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and storms move out of the SE portions of our area by early Wednesday morning as the cold front pushes to our east and high pressure begins to build in. Drier air working in will allow for a return to mostly sunny skies by the late morning/afternoon Wednesday. High pressure remains in control Thursday and Friday, with sunny and quiet conditions. Temperatures in the 70s to around 80F Wednesday, then as winds gradually turn over to the south temperatures increase into the upper 70s and low 80s Thursday and the low/mid 80s Friday. Our next real shot at rain returns Saturday. High pressure makes an exit, with southerly flow bringing in a warmer and more moist airmass. The GFS brings in a trough that will leave us with some scattered showers and storms. The ECMWF, meanwhile, tracks a surface low NE through the eastern Great Lakes and into Canada, with more widespread rain. This seems a bit overzealous, so went more with the GFS solution of lower chances for rain and thunder and slightly higher afternoon temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms are possible form KELM to KBGM through about 03Z...and from about 02Z to 05Z at KAVP. Northern terminals KSYR and KRME should remain dry...with rain showers at KITH through 03Z. Not enough confidence to mention precip later tonight. Will likely be mostly dry with only temporary periods of rain showers. Will also need to watch for the potential of fog later tonight. Current forecast keeps all sites VFR after 06Z tonight through 00Z Monday. Winds will be light and variable tonight through the day Sunday. Outlook... Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but still a small chance for primarily daytime showers and thunderstorms. Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HLC/MWG NEAR TERM...BJT/DJN SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...HLC/MWG AVIATION...BJT/DJN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
530 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 A weak upper level shortwave was slowly moving southeast over western Kansas this afternoon with the axis currently extending roughly from Wakeeney to Liberal. Latest short term models show this shortwave moving a little more to the southeast before washing out. At the surface, a weak stationary frontal boundary was located along the Oklahoma border and this is where the best low level moisture convergence is occurring this afternoon. Short term CAMs like the HRRR and RAP13 have been pretty consistent over the past several runs in developing some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along and/or south of Highway 54 later this afternoon and early evening. Latest visible satellite trends would support that as the cumulus field is becoming a little more congested over Meade Co. The current forecast has a pretty good handle on this and will continue to follow it with a few minor tweaks. Thunderstorms are expected to diminish fairly quickly this evening as we lose daytime heating. Some patchy fog could redevelop again later tonight given the weak moist low level upslope flow into western Kansas. There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms again with peak heating on Sunday afternoon. Best chances will be across southern portions of the forecast area where the old frontal boundary continues to linger. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Upper ridge over the central High Plains gets displaced somewhat farther south through the first part of the upcoming week. With the southern edge of the mid level westerly flow moving back to the south, western Kansas should see somewhat better chances for thunderstorms through Tuesday or Wednesday. This will include the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms along with the potential for heavy rain given increasing deep layer shear and a fairly moist airmass. Monday night and Tuesday night could MCSs developing over the High Plains of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas that could impact locations of the forecast area especially north of Highway 96. By later in the week both the GFS and ECMWF show the upper level ridge rebuilding over the western and central CONUS. This could result in drier conditions for southwest Kansas if enough mid level warming occurs to keep a lid on convection. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 529 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 VFR conditions will prevail with decreasing mid level cloudiness this evening. Winds will generally be from the south to southeast at less than 12 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 96 70 92 / 20 20 20 40 GCK 69 94 68 90 / 10 10 10 40 EHA 67 95 68 91 / 20 10 10 30 LBL 69 96 70 93 / 20 10 20 40 HYS 70 94 69 87 / 10 10 20 30 P28 73 97 73 94 / 20 20 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough of low pressure will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Sunday. Weak high pressure over the area early on Monday will push offshore during the day. This will result in warm and humid weather with many areas seeing high temperatures well into the 80s with the possibility of lower 90s over southern New Hampshire. A seabreeze may develop along the coast during the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may also develop in the afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the region Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Cooler and drier conditions will return for Wednesday Through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 11 PM Update... A few minor changes, mainly to lower PoPs across the region. Short wave will still bring widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm to the area overnight. The HRRR is showing an increase in convective activity around 6-8 AM in southern NH and SW ME. Still expecting showers and thunderstorms Sunday along a weakening boundary. 915 PM Update... Scattered showers are moving through southern NH at this hour, with light showers moving off the southern Maine coast. Made some adjustments to PoPs, temperatures, and dew points after ingesting latest observations. Forecast otherwise looks on track, including the possibility for some patchy fog and drizzle in some locations. 615 PM Update... Radar imagery shows increasing convection to our southwest as a short wave moves towards the region. A few echoes are moving through New Hampshire and Maine as of 6 PM, producing sprinkles and a couple showers. As the short wave approaches tonight, PWATs, which were around an inch on this morning`s KGYX sounding, will increase to at or above 1.75" over southern NH and southwest ME. There will be enough elevated instability to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, and have added these to the forecast for tonight and into the morning hours. These will be garden variety storms with lightning and some heavy rain. Fog was added across the region and over the waters with moisture increasing rapidly. Otherwise temperatures are cooling faster than forecast, especially across the north, and have adjusted hourly and overnight low temperatures. Previous discussion... Cloudy skies and a few isolated showers will continue through the evening as a weak disturbance clears off to our east. Overnight expect some fog to be possible in the mountain valleys if the upper level clouds are able to clear out of the way in time. Additionally dewpoints near 60 along the coastal plain will bring coastal fog to the waters. Fog will linger until just after dawn. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Through Sunday and into Monday increasing heights will see temperatures rising as south to southwesterly flow advects warmer more humid air ahead of a stronger system arriving Tuesday. Sunday will be increasingly humid as dewpoints reach the upper 60s. The combination of hot and humid conditions will provide enough instability for some afternoon thunderstorms. These will mostly be initiated off the terrain as the stronger forcing aloft remains upstream. Expect scattered afternoon thunderstorms on Sunday. A few of these may be sustained enough to produce gusty winds due to the steep low level lapse rates. Sunday night the increasing humidity will lead to more widespread fog throughout the region with dense fog possible in the northern valleys. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Global models are in good agreement through the period. On Monday ridging aloft with a surface high at the surface pushing over the Gulf of Maine will result in a SW flow of warm and increasing muggy air will develop. Dew points will climb to near 70 over the southern part of the area while reaching the mid 60s over the mountains. The SW flow may not be strong enough to prevent afternoon seabreezes...so expect some cooling during the afternoon along the coast. Cannot completely rule out isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over western areas where instability will increase during the afternoon. More organized showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday as a cold front crosses the area from NW to SE. Timing of the front will dictate severe thunderstorm potential. Current indications are that the front will cross the mountains midday....but not until late afternoon along the coast. This would make areas south of the mountains the region to watch for strong to severe thunderstorm development. There also will be a moisture rich environment in place with dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Southern most areas may see dew points reach into the mid 70s. This may increase the threat of heavy rain which could result in a flash flooding threat. A large area of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes region midweek and dominate the weather through Friday resulting in dry and comfortable conditions. Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will start to approach Saturday...however it is too early to tell whether any precipitation arrive by late Saturday or hold off beyond day 7. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term... MVFR ceilings this afternoon as showers associated with a weak front move through. Those ceilings will increase to VFR later this evening. Overnight fog along the immediate coastline may impact RKD and PWM while further inland HIE and BML may also fog in resulting in IFR. Sunday clouds and visibilities will return to VFR but scattered afternoon thunderstorms may impact all terminals. Long Term...VFR to MVFR expected Monday. A cold front will cross the region with showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday resulting in areas of IFR to LIFR in any thunderstorms. High pressure will return VFR conditions on Wednesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term... Quiet conditions over the waters through the end of the week. Fog will move in overnight as warmer more humid air advects northwards. Late Monday will see increasing southwesterly flow ahead of Tuesdays front which may approach SCA on the outer waters. Long Term...Winds and Waves heights may reach SCA conditions Tuesday and Tuesday Night as a cold front approaches and crosses the waters. High pressure will build in Wed through Fri resulting in decreasing winds and waves. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The area continues to be in a astronomically high tide these next few nights. Tonight high tide at Portland is 11.8ft at 12:59am. The midday tide today was running a few tenths above forecast which would put the overnight tide right at flood level. With calm conditions leading to almost no wave action have opted to just put out a statement for this high water condition. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes/Watson SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Lulofs AVIATION...Curtis/Lulofs MARINE...Curtis/Lulofs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1147 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 A combination of upper disturbances along with a cold front will bring chances for rain to the area later Saturday through Monday night. High pressure will then keep the middle part of the week dry before another system brings more rain chances to end the week. Hot and humid conditions will persist into early next week, then near normal temperatures will return. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 908 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Mid level vorticity center currently over Illinois will be drifting into the area later tonight, based on short term model data. Large area of convection associated with this feature has been weakening recently, with cloud tops warming. Air mass is not particularly unstable for this time of year locally, and pattern not very favorable for widespread nocturnal convection tonight with light flow at 850mb. Will keep chance PoPs in the forecast for the rest of night as the vorticity center moves into the area. Previous discussion follows. A weak boundary was found stretching from Southern Lake Michigan across Northern Illinois to Northern Missouri late this morning. High pressure was found across the Virginias...with weak southerly flow in place across Indiana. Dew point temperatures across Central Indiana were in the humid upper 60s and lower 70s. Forecast soundings this afternoon continue to suggest a dry column across Central Indiana. &00mb temps again appear warm enough to provide a decent mid level cap as convective temperature remain in the mid 90s. Models and HRRR suggest the weak boundary to the northwest will remain there through the afternoon and that will be the focus area for potential convection through the day. Thus have trended toward a dry forecast this afternoon. With full sunshine expected have trended highs slightly warmer than persistence. Better chances for precip will arrive tonight as the surface boundary sags southward toward Central Indiana. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. The weak upper trough will move into the area tonight and remain around through the remainder of the short term. A cold front will also move in as well. These will interact with moisture and instability to produce chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period. With convection dependent on timing of various impulses in the trough, do not feel confident enough to go higher than chance category PoPs for any period. Put the highest PoPs in on Monday into Monday evening as the front moves through. Coverage of convection on Sunday should be low enough to allow temperatures to peak around 90. Monday will be a little cooler with more convection around. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night THrough Saturday/... Issued at 209 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 ECMWF suggests quiet weather for the middle part of the work week as NW flow and subsidence will be in place across the Great Lakes and Indiana. The Ecmwf suggests a moderate upper wave to dig south toward Indiana on Friday and Saturday within the NW flow aloft. Good forcing and even associated lower level features appear in play on Thursday Night through Saturday as the upper wave passes. Forecast builder has included pops at that time and this seems quite reasonable. A few more similar runs will result in higher confidence for precip along with high pops. Stay Tuned. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 150600Z TAFS/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Mid level vorticity center currently drifting through Illinois will begin moving into the western parts of Indiana after about 150700Z. Scattered convection is possible in the vicinity of the terminals after that time, and this threat looks to continue past sunrise Sunday with the vorticity center lingering over the area. Otherwise, outside of any convective areas, ceilings above 050 expected through midday Sunday. Potential for some areas of visibility restrictions in fog to develop overnight as dewpoint depressions are quite low, but extensive mid level cloud and potential convection suggests threat for widespread IFR restrictions is low. Light surface winds overnight will become 170-190 degrees at 5-8 kts by late morning Sunday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...Puma/JAS SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....Puma AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
643 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SHORT TERM... 153 PM CDT Through Tonight... With the extent of the rain and thunderstorm activity Saturday morning, the environment across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana is rather stable, or at least more capped to convection. SPC Convective allowing models which were suggesting more activity this afternoon seem to be a bit overdone, with the HRRR suggesting outside of some lighter rain north and some thunderstorms far south, that we will be fairly quiet through mid to late afternoon. The more significant thunderstorm activity will now look to be tied closer to the stronger forcing over Missouri which will eventually spread toward central Illinois through the afternoon. Have held onto the best chances for additional storm development well south of I-80 late this afternoon and early evening tied to this better forcing and some additional instability. NW-SE moving shortwave energy aloft should prevent this activity from making too far northward progress into the area tonight, but have hung onto very low chances farther north if the energy is shifted north. Some fog will develop tonight in the light wind, moist environment. KMD && .LONG TERM... 315 PM CDT Sunday through Saturday... This stretch of uncomfortably humid conditions will come to an end on Monday and with it the chances for periodic isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will also end on Monday for at least a few days. Forcing looks to be minimal at best on Sunday in the wake of the short-wave dropping south across the region through tonight. Another short-wave over eastern Kansas this afternoon should generally track across central and downstate IL on Sunday. 925 mb temps progged generally support upper 80s to lower 90s for highs, however a lack of capping should enable a Cu field to form pretty quickly, so anticipating primarily upper 80s away from the Lake Michigan shore. Given very light wind field in non-existent pressure gradient, a lake breeze should form and push inland into northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana and keep temperatures there upper 70s-lower 80s. Dewpoints into the mid 70s outside of Chicago and locally upper 70s from evapotranspiration will yield peak heat index values inland in 95-100 range, so certainly an uncomfortable day. Turning back to the overall lack of forcing tomorrow, it casts doubt on convective coverage. While soundings indicate moderate to strong uncapped instability, gut feeling is that best chance for widely scattered t-storms will be primarily south of I-80 closer to the glancing blow from S/W to south. Farther north, coverage if any may end up being isolated at most, perhaps with lake breeze convergence aiding in a few more storms popping near the boundary as it pushes inland. Any thunderstorms that do form will be of the slow moving pulse variety and likely fairly quick to decay given very meager deep layer wind shear. PWATs will continue to be in the 1.75" to 2" range, so brief heavy downpours would be expected with storms before they decay and also can`t rule out brief gusty winds from core collapses. Do not anticipate a severe risk given aforementioned weak shear keeping updrafts shorter lived. A cold front will approach on Sunday night into Monday, but loss of diurnal instability and weak shear should result in any thunderstorms quickly dissipating Sunday evening and maybe isolated at the very most overnight. The frontal wind shift will have a relatively unfavorable morning to early afternoon timing on Monday, however a weak short-wave lagging the front could trigger isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms (perhaps best chance I-80 south) before drying and stabilization occurs later in the day. Highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the 70s should support moderate instability, though deep layer shear will again be weak and likely preclude much if any risk for strong/marginally severe storms. Northwest winds behind wind shift should flop over to onshore near the lake, with highs in the low 80s lakeside behind the lake breeze. Secondary cold front with stronger cool/dry push will arrive Monday evening-night. Tuesday and at least Wednesday will be slightly below seasonable upper 70s-lower 80s and noticeably less humid as high pressure overspreads the area, with mid 70s near Lake Michigan due to onshore flow. The main concern on Tuesday is brisk northerly winds expected to build waves and result in dangerous swimming conditions at Lake Michigan beaches. Thursday could be more of the same as Tuesday-Wednesday though the uncertainty for the late week period including Friday-Saturday is an approaching trough from the west/northwest which could result in some shower and thunderstorm risk over the region, though there`s plenty of uncertainty in how things play out. Castro && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... 643 pm...Forecast concerns include a chance of thunderstorms tonight/Sunday afternoon...fog/low clouds Sunday morning and a lake breeze Sunday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms continue to develop along the IL/IA border and this activity may continue to slowly drift east into north central IL this evening...possibly affecting rfd. Confidence is low and there may be some new isolated development as far east as arr/lot by mid/late evening. Additional activity across west/ central IL is expected to mainly move east and remain south of the terminals. On Sunday...with weak forcing aloft...confidence for thunderstorms is low. A lake breeze is expected and this may allow isolated activity to develop. Light east/southeast winds this evening will become light and variable or calm overnight and then light southerly Sunday morning. The weak gradient will allow a lake breeze to develop Sunday afternoon and it is expected to move through ord/mdw with medium confidence for timing. The light winds and moist low levels after rain earlier today should allow some light fog to develop overnight. Trends will need to be monitored later tonight as its possible ifr/lifr vis may develop away from the immediate Chicago metro area. Lower cigs are also possible but confidence at ord/mdw remains low. cms && .MARINE... 329 PM CDT Fairly benign conditions expected on the lake will continue through Sunday night or Monday with mainly light/variable winds driven by land-sea breeze circulations. The exception will obviously be with any storms creating locally and briefly higher winds and waves. A few cold fronts will move down the lake Sunday night into Monday, followed by a secondary front with a stronger push of cooler air Monday night. Expecting a period of fairly brisk northerly winds up to 20-25 kt, especially for southern Lake Michigan on Tuesday. This will likely result in hazardous conditions for small craft for the Illinois and Indiana nearshore waters. High pressure will then build into the western Great Lakes region on Wednesday with lighter northerly flow augmented by lake-sea breeze circulations throug Thursday. Izzi/Castro && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
741 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Short term concern remains convective threat Sunday. Few cumulus develop in moist lower levels this morning. This will dissipate quickly late afternoon/evening. Some thicker moisture remains to the southeast and models suggest some of this may work slowly north overnight. Some threat of fog forming again to the east with light winds remaining. It will be regulated by any lower cloud intrusion later tonight from the southeast. The west will see enough gradient ahead of the incoming cold front to preclude fog formation. Perusing ensembles and various CAMS indicates the potential of at least some isolated convection the front moves east into Sunday. The latest version of the HRRR is trying to develop at least a weak complex across South Dakota late tonight and this may work into west central MN early Sunday. Afternoon heating appears significant enough to generate MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg ahead of the boundary and with the weak forcing from the upper trough, may be enough to generate at least isolated convection along the boundary with both the GFS and NAM deterministic models generating some light QPF. Convergence remains quite weak along the boundary however. Have included some small PoPs for this for now. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Long term trends continue to bring in much cooler/drier air over the region early in the week. This should provide slightly below normal temperatures and dewpoints back to the 50s. Both the GFS and ECMWF are driving some trough energy across South Dakota mid/late in the week. The ECMWF remains most amplified and lower with its progression east. It moves a closed circulation over the area mainly Thursday into Friday, with the GFS delivering PoPs late Wednesday night through Thursday night. We will need to monitor overall trends for this system. We could see some heavier convection/rainfall if system becomes more organized and slow moving. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 741 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 VFR this evening, but some patchy fog may redevelop overnight. Not expecting it to be as widespread as last night due to drier air in place. Winds will remain light until the cold front pushes through Sunday afternoon and northwest winds increase. Probability of precip is too low to mention at any of the TAF sites through the period. KMSP...No concerns this evening. Maybe some light fog again late tonight. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. NW wind 10G20 kt. TUE...VFR. NW Wind 5 kt. WED...VFR. Slgt Chance MVFR with -TSRA late. SE Wind 5-10 kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM... AVIATION...BORGHOFF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
947 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 946 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 The general trend the past 30 minutes has been for warming tops and decreasing reflectivity in the three mesoscale convective systems in our area. The atmosphere finally appears to be stabilizing due to the combined effects of noctural cooling and outflow from earlier storms. However, a small area of se Missouri around kpof is still maintaining mixed layer capes near 3000 j/kg as analyzed on the spc mesoanalysis webpage. It appears the primary hazard has become heavy rain as the 500 mb shortwave over Missouri generates sufficient lift to maintain convection. The high-res guidance indicates a decreasing trend overnight, however there are exceptions such as the hrrr and the 18z nam. With precip water values near 2 inches and 850 mb flow averaging 15 knots, the potential for heavy rain will continue well into the night. The heavy rain threat will likely remain mostly in the most unstable air over se Missouri, and also where upper-level forcing is stronger in southern Illinois. Social media, HWO, and forecast grids mention heavy rain in those areas. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Fairly good confidence in the short term. Sticky situation this afternoon with heat index readings ranging from 99 in the north and east with 105 to 111 elsewhere. Next we have strong storms developing over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. These will demand a close watch into the evening hours at the very least. We also have an air quality alert for southwest Indiana. So a very active near term in progress. As previously stated the storms will be a concern tonight as the MCV coming out of Kansas continues to track east. This feature could enhance the already strong storms as we head into the evening. Again the MCV...combined high temperatures and abundant moisture cause more storms farther east Sunday. Sunday we will have ML CAPES 2k-3k j/kg. We will have 25-30 knots bulk shear. So the main threat would be wind followed by heavy rain. Thunderstorm will remain possible Monday as a cold front bears down on the region which should exit Tuesday. Which should bring our best break from the extended heat wave. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 High confidence continues in the overall pattern shown by the models with medium confidence in the exact timing. By Tuesday the front should be exiting southeast as the upper level trough progresses toward the east coast. This will allow high pressure to build into the region for the middle of the week. This will be our first good chance at some relief from the heat and humidity. The temperatures will only fall into the middle and upper 80s for the rest of the week but dew points will fall into the middle to upper 60s. The combination of this will yield a considerably more comfortable heat index. Ridging over the west will slowly push eastward causing the next trough to sharpen as it moves through our region. This will be accompanied by another system at the surface coming out of the southern plains. As these system will work in tandem to bring our next chance of storms to the region late in the week. Right now the late week system does not look that strong so will keep the pops no more than chance for this issuance. Winds will start out of the north Tuesday and slowly start to take on a little more easterly component toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION... Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 Scattered thunderstorms will gradually decrease tonight. None appear to be an immediate threat to the taf sites as of 23z, although some weakening storms near kevv/kowb could produce gusty winds through 01z. Some mvfr vsbys in fog are possible where rain falls this evening. The best chance of fog will be around sunrise. As of 23z most of the taf sites look rain free. Sunday will be similar to today, with isolated to scattered storms increasing as solar heating destabilizes the atmosphere. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...MY SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM...KH AVIATION...MY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
928 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Middle Atlantic region this evening will weaken overnight. An upper air trough will cross the area Sunday, followed by another later Monday. Low pressure and a cold front will cross our region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week and remain through Friday. Another disturbance will arrive for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A 00z mesoanalysis placed the eastern edge of the axis of MLCAPE from far northwestern New Jersey and the Poconos west and southwestward. Noticed that the HRRR and the NAMnest have nearly lost the convection now overnight (HRRR develops some convection in eastern Pennsylvania after 12z Sunday), and this may be due to the ongoing convection just to our northwest using up most of the current instability. In addition, the forcing with the remnant convectively induced short wave looks to waning with time and therefore the current convection approaching the Poconos may end up dissipating as it tracks east-southeastward through about midnight. There is still a short wave trough approaching overnight, and with a plume of higher precipitable water and some lingering instability, some showers and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. This looks to be still placed across mainly northeastern Pennsylvania to northern New Jersey. Given the uncertainty, initially trimmed back the PoPs but kept the idea of some isolated to scattered showers/thunder overnight and especially toward daybreak. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids based on the latest observations and trends. There is a pocket of lower dew points in and around the Philadelphia metro, however these should increase some though overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... For Sunday, there should be some showers and thunderstorms continuing after sunrise over parts of northern or central NJ to perhaps into eastern Pennsylvania. There could be a lull or main activity moving offshore around midday, but then increasing heat and humidity and resultant CAPE will likely lead to more afternoon convection, especially N/W of PHL. Max temps are forecast similar to today, but the sfc dewpoints will rise into the mid-upper-60s, resulting in more uncomfortable conditions. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sunday night...A few lingering showers and tstms are possible during the evening, but then fair weather expected overnight. A warm and humid overnight with lows only in the low 70s most areas. Monday/Monday night...Unsettled with scattered tstms as an upper level trough crosses the area and plenty of very warm and humid air remains at the sfc. The greatest chc for tstms (mostly high chc / low likely) will be over the srn Poconos and NW NJ. Tuesday/Tuesday night...Showers and tstms will be widespread on Tuesday as the humid airmass yields to a cold front crossing the region. The front is rather potent for July, so heavy rains and strong tstms are possible. We`ll wait until tomorrow to see the SPC outlook for Day3, but profiles seem to indicate that some svr is possible for that day, especially N/W. We will continue to keep the mention of heavy rains in the grids and in the HWO too. More high temperatures in the upper 80s/ low 90s for Tuesday and humid also. This will be the final day of the heat and humidity. Heat indicies may approach 100 in the I-95 urban corridor and Delmarva. Wednesday thru Friday...The cold front will be east of the region Wednesday. This period will be mostly dry with high pressure building in. Highs will be seasonable with low/mid 80s in most areas, but the overnight lows will be cool for July with 50s across the north/west and low/mid 60s for Delmarva and srn NJ. These lows will be around 5 degrees below normal. The airmass will be dry as well, a good contrast from the airmass early next week. Next weekend...Most of the operational models have a trough digging in the east again late next week. Moisture is expected to move N/NE across the Middle Atlantic, so probably some showers/tstms will occur at these times. We`ll just have some chc pops for those periods attm. Temperatures mostly near normal with an uptick in the humidity again. This time of the year is the warmest part climatologically. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of tonight...Mainly VFR. Some showers and thunderstorms may be near mostly ABE to TTN overnight. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, diminishing to less than 5 knots or locally light and variable. The timing and southern extent of any showers and thunderstorms is of low confidence. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Some showers and thunderstorms should be around in the morning especially from ABE to PNE northward, then a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Southwest winds increase to around 10 knots. Timing and extent of showers and thunderstorms is of lower confidence. Outlook... Sunday night...Mostly VFR. A few evening showers/tstms psbl. Monday and Monday night...Mostly VFR. Sct tstms N/W with lower conditions psbl. Tuesday and Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR at times in occasional showers and tstms. Wednesday and Thursday...VFR expected. && .MARINE... The conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Sunday. Southerly winds though will gust up to 20 knots at times. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight and early Sunday morning mainly north of Little Egg Inlet, NJ. Outlook... Sunday night and Monday...Sub-SCA. Sct tstms Monday. Monday night through Tuesday night...SCA psbl. Showers/tstms expected. Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-SCA. Rip Currents... For Sunday, a moderate risk of rip currents has been issued for both the New Jersey and Delaware beaches. A south to southwest wind is expected once again and it appears that while the swells may decrease some there may continue to be underlying 12 second long period swell energy. This would tend to result in rougher conditions especially late morning and afternoon as the winds increase. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Gorse Short Term...AMC Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Gorse/O`Hara Marine...AMC/Gorse/O`Hara
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
856 PM MST Sat Jul 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture levels will remain high enough through at least early next week to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the region. Storm chances will expand in coverage into early next week with both morning and afternoon rainfall possible. Temperatures will be highly variable depending on cloud cover or lack there of, though the increased moisture will make it feel unusually muggy regardless. && .DISCUSSION... Abundant moisture remains situated across the majority of Arizona with a PWATS of 1.7-1.9" stretching from south-central Arizona northwestward toward Las Vegas. PWATs drop off to the east and to the west, but remain sufficient for monsoon activity across all but southwest Arizona and southeast California. An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms in still ongoing as of 9 PM across east-central Arizona, similar to last night at this time. An MCV from this area of diminishing storms is already evident and is picked up by the HRRR which brings it into the south- central Arizona deserts later tonight. CAPES will remain marginal overnight, so we could see a few showers associated with the MCV, but we do not anticipate any organized thunderstorm activity. For Sunday, afternoon and evening storms are again likely, but coverage should be similar to what we had today as there is no clear trigger and considerable cloudiness should again limit daytime heating in many areas. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Model guidance, including the latest GFS and ECMWF, have been advertising an inverted trof to move westward out of New Mexico and into Arizona over the weekend and into the early part of next week but the guidance has had trouble resolving the details of this inverted trof feature. Over the past couple of days, the trof has trended weaker and more amorphous, less pronounced and slower to move west. Latest runs, including GEFS ensemble runs, continue this trend and actually take the bulk of the trof south of Arizona and through NW Mexico and into the gulf of CA by the middle of next week. We do expect that as this feature slowly moves into the area this weekend and westward during the first part of next week, moisture will increase along with thunderstorms chances. We still favor that trend, but at the moment it appears hard to say which day from Sunday through next Tuesday will be the most active. Many model parameters, including PWAT, CAPE, 850mb dewpoints and lifted indices really don`t change much day to day, and wind fields aloft do trend weaker although steering flow is from the northeast to east (favorable for storms moving into the deserts). Over the next several days, guidance keeps conditions over the deserts somewhat on the stable side despite moisture increasing, with lifted indices positive over much of the area west of Phoenix. Due to confidence being low in determining which day might be the most active, we will go with a rather broad brush forecast, keeping slight chance POPs over lower deserts and keeping chance numbers over the higher terrain east of Phoenix. In other words, a low to moderate grade monsoon forecast. High temps each day will not change much but will tend to stay a bit below seasonal normals each day. For the latter portion of the forecast, Wednesday into Friday, guidance continues to call for high pressure building over the western CONUS, with the high center shifting east and into the vicinity of the four corners. 500mb heights climb with time, exceeding 598dm at the center by Friday, and as the ridge builds the atmosphere dries out a bit. Steering flow becomes more southeasterly, not a bad direction for getting storms into the central deserts, but overall we will be expecting lower grade monsoon conditions with high temps climbing above seasonal normals. Expect hotter deserts to climb each day, reaching to around 110 by next Friday. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Winds have for the most part already switched out of the east and will remain fairly light out of the east through Sunday morning. We can`t rule out the possibility of showers during the overnight period, but at this point confidence is too low to include in TAFs. Very moist conditions should again lead to high terrain storms Sunday afternoon and evening, but as with the past couple days storms will be more limited across the lower deserts. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: There are no aviation weather concerns as winds will follow typical diurnal trends and remain relatively light. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday: Monsoon moisture will remain in place with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms anticipated through the middle part of the week. This will include pockets of wetting rains, especially over the higher terrain of eastern areas. A slow drying and warming trend will develop during the latter half of the week, except for the higher terrain locales where isolated storms will continue. Min RH values will remain above 20 percent across the region except for SE CA where it will range near 15-20 percent. Outside of gusty thunderstorm winds, expect typical light to moderate winds favoring variable, diurnal and afternoon upslope patterns. Overnight recovery will generally be fair to good and occasionally excellent. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures through this active period into next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kuhlman PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..CB AVIATION...Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch/Sawtelle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
754 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will slide east tonight into Sunday. Increasing heat and humidity is expected to return along with better chances of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the next cold front for early next week. High pressure will build over the area Midweek as a cold front sink further south into the Carolinas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 743 PM EDT Saturday...Overall no particularly significant changes were needed to the going forecast. Ridge of high pressure still prevails providing for a mild and increasingly humid late afternoon across the region. A few isolated showers will remain possible in the mountains of northwest NC and into Grayson County through sunset before dissipating. Unlike prior nights, should see less banked stratus as synoptic gradient flow and surface winds turn more south to southwest late tonight and into overnight. Flow should be light enough to permit some river valley fog but coverage should be limited, especially with expectation of at least mid to high clouds increasing from west to east toward early morning. Appears that these clouds stem from convective blowoff from ongoing storms in western Ohio Valley/TN Valley. Greatest cloud cover by morning should be across the western third of the CWA, but this should mainly be mid to high clouds. Should stay clear in the VA/NC Piedmont, however. No changes to lows which should be again mainly in the 60s. Looking ahead, worth noting that some higher-resolution guidance such as the 18z NAM-3km and to an extent the HRRR breaks at least showers or perhaps thunder by mid-morning as far east as the Blue Ridge - a bit earlier than presently indicated. Will keep in mind for possible changes as we look toward the 00z forecast guidance. Previous discussion follows... 1022 MB Surface High centered over eastern Virginia will gradually drift east tonight into Sunday. As the surface high shifts east and offshore, upper level ridging to the west punches east. The flow aloft turns more southwesterly with time resulting in an increase in 850 mb warming. The HiresW-ARW-East,HRRR,NAM,GFS and ECMWF showed isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the west this afternoon into this evening. The best chance for convection is in the southwest mountains. Any isolated convection this afternoon will diminish quickly with the loss of solar heating this evening into tonight. Overnight into Sunday morning, patchy fog will develop mainly in the western valleys because of the light winds and low level moisture. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 60s in the west to the upper 60s in the east. The upper ridge will start to flatten on Sunday. With a more southerly flow on Sunday, PW values and associated instability increase into Sunday afternoon, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge. An upper level shortwave approaches from the northwest late in the afternoon. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the west. With morning stratus and fog in the mountains quickly eroding and 850mb winds veer to the southwest providing some downsloping, high temperatures Sunday will warm into the upper 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s in the Piedmont. Confidence is high during the forecast near term period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 307 PM EDT Saturday... Sunday`s afternoon storms will fade through the evening, however scattered showers may persist into the early morning hours as weak short waves track in a moisture rich environment. Southwest flow Monday will transport more moisture into the region pushing PWAT values to 150 percent above normal. The combination of outflow boundaries, differiental heating and weak convergence should produce more areal coverage of storms across the mountains and foothills in the afternoon. A few of the storms Monday may produce locally heavy rain with forecast soundings showing long skinny CAPE profiles indicating a deep warm cloud layer. We also can not rule out an isolated strong to severe storm producing damaging winds as an upper level trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys sends weak short waves over the area. This upper level trough will move over the southern Appalachians Monday night, keep convection going for most of the night. As this upper level trough drifts east Tuesday, surface to low level winds will veer to the west. In the afternoon, a cold front will track from the Ohio and Tennesse Valleys, then over the Appalachians Mountains. With a west wind out ahead of the front, the chances for severe storms will be somewhat limited across the mountains, but the chance for heavy downpours and localize flooding is elevated. It is a different story in the east as afternoon heating increases instabilities, therefore boosts the potential for storms to become strong to severe going into the evening. The primary threat will be damaging straight-line winds. Yesterday`s models had the front stalling over Southside VA into Wednesday morning. Today`s models has the front clearing the forecast area in the evening and moving south into the Carolinas overnight. Afternoon temperatures Monday and Tuesday will run at or slightly above normal with upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge to upper 80s to lower 90s east. Overnight temperatures will remain muggy in the 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure will build over the region on Wednesday as a cold front sink further south into the Carolinas. This high pressure system should keep the forecast area dry through at least Thursday night. Wednesday and Thursday`s high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than normal. On Friday, models are tracking a Gulf disturbance moving along a stalled frontal boundary across the Carolinas. The GFS has this disturbance tracking northeast across the Carolinas and moving off the North Carolina coast Saturday night. This will keep most of the area dry with light rain showers moving east along the VA/NC border Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECM has this tropical disturbance tracking northward Friday into Saturday. This track may bring 1-3 inches of rain to the piedmont and around a half to one inch to areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. The main difference between models is the upper level pattern. The GFS has an open trough sitting over the Ohio-Tennessee Valley. The ECM has a closed low over the Great Lakes. For now, we will keep PoPs low, which is in-line with our confidence. Temperatures Friday and Saturday could be around normal if the drier GFS is correct. If the wet ECM verifies, temperatures may only warm into the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 754 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions through about midnight with any leftover isolated showers in the southern Blue Ridge/NW NC mountains fizzling with sunset. Should see some development of MVFR-IFR mist in the western river valleys (e.g. Lewisburg and Blacksburg TAFs) starting around 09z. Duration and coverage may prove limited with winds becoming more south-southwest and cloud cover on the increase late. Light south winds should become light/calm overnight, then tend south/southwest toward early morning. Into Sunday, likely to see multi-layered VFR deck progressing eastward with Cu underneath a mid/high level deck as disturbance aloft topples upper level ridge. This disturbance should spark scattered showers and thunderstorms; while the best chance of storms is in the afternoon, confidence on start time is low as recent guidance has trended a bit faster - showing storms potentially as early as mid-/late-morning from Bluefield to Blacksburg. Will indicate VCSH for terminals along/west of the Blue Ridge in the afternoon, but change may be needed if it becomes more clear that showers/storms may begin sooner. It may take until late in the TAF period for thunder to reach Lynchburg and Danville. Any thunderstorm capable of lightning, gusty outflow/localized turbulence and IFR or lower visbys in heavy rain. Outside of thunderstorms, winds should tend south- southwest 3-6 kts. Confidence is moderate to high on aviation elements, though is low on thunderstorm timing. Extended Aviation... Showers and storms should become more widespread especially mountains by Monday afternoon and across the region on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. However confidence is too low to pinpoint where the showers and thunderstorms may occur. Also likely to see late night/early morning patchy fog result in localized sub-VFR in the valleys and where any earlier rainfall occurred each day through Tuesday. Conditions will dry out Wednesday, then moisture will return from the south Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...AL/KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AL/KK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
811 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms have moved out of the forecast area this evening. The latest HRRR suggests scattered convection may re- develop overnight across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, so will leave pops as they are for later tonight. Have lowered pops some though prior to 06Z. Made a few minor changes to overnight lows based on current trends, with the rest of the forecast looking good at this time. Update on the way. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053- 060>062-064>067-070>073. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....05 PLATE