Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/09/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
941 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure now centered over the Northeastern United States
and the Mid-Atlantic States will linger over the area through
Tuesday. This high pressure system will help keep Tropical Storm
Chris off the Carolina coast tonight through Tuesday morning. A
new cold front will drop across the region late Tuesday night
into Wednesday, while also pushing Tropical Storm Chris out to
sea.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 940 PM EDT Sunday...
High pressure remains entrenched over the Northeastern US and
the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon and will remain in
control of the regions weather through Monday. Tropical Storm
Chris remains about 160 miles south of Cape Hatteras and right
now the dry air that has moved through the air is helping to
keep convection from forming on the western side of the system.
So this is leading to dry conditions and mainly clear sky across
the area. These conditions should prevail through Monday. For
temperatures tonight, should see another cool night for July
across the area with good radiational cooling conditions. So
have gone generally close to readings from last night except in
the SE VA/NE NC where clouds kept things warmer last night.
Overnight/early morning forecast lows range from the low 50s
far NW, to the mid/upper 50s form central VA to the Ern Shore,
to the upper 60s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Highs will begin to
moderate and recover into the mid to upper 80s which is a blend
of the MET/MAV numbers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...
The strong high pressure system will gradually begin to break
down Monday night into Tuesday, but not before providing an
additional 24 hours of benign weather. The models then begin to
struggle with how to handle the the next front and how it reacts
with TS Chris. The 12z GFS was the fastest to move the front in
and also the quickest to kick Chris off to the NE. Meanwhile,
the 12 NAM was much slower and actually moved the center of
storms SW initially and gets it much closer to the coast. This
forecast was much farther west than the NHC track so it was not
used. But it would suggest more chances for rain along the
coast. The 12z ECMWF is similar to the GFS but just a little
slower. So have trended the forecast to a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF and brought the boundary into the region on Tuesday night
and have it bisecting the area from SBY-RIC-FVX around 12z and
then continue to progress the front through the area by 00z
Thurs. However, despite the front arriving, the moisture looks
limited and much of the region might be seeing some suppression
of the lift due to TS Chris. So have reduced the pops some to
slight chance to low chance pops Tuesday night into Wednesday.
For temperatures, did forecast readings to get back closer to
normal. Have pushed lows back into the low 90s on Tuesday,
closer to the MAV numbers. But held values down a few degrees
cooler on Wednesday with the front moving through and more
clouds ahead of the front and some cooler air north of the
front. For low should still see decent cooling Monday night with
readings in the low 60s to around 70 but Tuesday night expect
readings to hang up in the upper 60s to the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...
An upper level trough dives into the region from the NNW late
Wednesday-Thursday. At the same time, a cold front passes
through the area and stalls over the Carolinas. This will lead
to shower/t-storm chances across the southern half of the CWA
Wednesday evening-Thursday morning. However, moisture will be
limited (PW values only around 1") so opted to keep PoPs no
higher than 30%. Sfc high pressure tries to build in from the
north Thu-Thu night, leading to below average temperatures and
lower humidity. A few lingering showers are possible in southern
VA/NE NC during the day on Thursday, but most areas will stay
dry. Surface high pressure departs and shower/t- storm chances
return to the region Friday afternoon into next weekend.
Guidance is suggesting that any convection Friday-next Sunday
will be isolated to scattered in coverage as well as diurnally
driven. Therefore, decided to keep PoPs in the slight chc-chance
range.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly below average through
the extended period. Highs are expected to be in the mid to
upper 80s throughout the CWA on Thursday/Friday, warming to
around 90 next weekend. Morning lows will be in the mid-upper
60s inland/around 70 in coastal areas on Thu/Fri before warming
to between 70-75 throughout the area by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...
High pressure dominates the region with mostly clear sky and NE
winds less than 10 kts...accept over SE VA/NE NC where the
tight pressure gradient caused by TS Chris is causing gusty
winds along coastal sections. Mostly VFR conditions are expected
for the CWA through the forecast period. Some sct/bkn clouds
from around 2000 to 4000 feet are expected to affect coastal NC
to SE Virginia as TS Chris churns offshore. Otherwise generally
dry weather will prevail.
Outlook: Dry (and mainly VFR) conditions prevail Sunday night
through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region and the
tropical system departs to the NE off the NC coast. A cold front
will bring a chance of showers/t-storms Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with dry weather/VFR conditions returning by
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Pressure gradient between the high to the north and TS Chris is
beginning to weaken enough to drop some of the SCA headlines this
evening. First to go (with this forecast package) will be the York
and Rap rivers along with the middle Ches Bay. The southern bay and
lower James River by midnight.
The coastal waters/Currituck Sound and mouth of the Ches Bay will
hold onto SCA headlines into Monday as TS Chris remains nearly
stationary. Highest seas remain over the srn coastal waters where
seas stay aoa 5 ft through Mon night. Lighter ne winds expected
Tue but seas will continue to flirt with 5 ft over the northern
Outer Banks.
A cold front will begin to nudge Chris to the ne late Tue, picking
up speed as it lifts ne and away from the region Wed. Not much of a
CAA surge progged behind the front attm.
Nearshore seas continue to hover between 7-8 feet from Va Beach on
south so will keep the high surf advisory through the evening.
High rip current risk and beach hazard statement extended through
Mon as TS Chris remains stationary.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ634-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ632.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI/JEF
MARINE...MPR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
634 PM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Concerns: Sunday evening wind shift across D10 TRACON, Monday
afternoon/evening convective chances.
At present time...an outflow boundary is traversing the D10 TRACON
and is roughly along a line from KADS to KDFW to KGDJ. South of
this outflow boundary...winds are from the SE while to the
north...winds are from the E-ENE. This outflow boundary has
already passed all of the North Texas TAF sites save for KAFW.
The outflow boundary is approaching as we speak...so winds should come
around from the ESE-SE at any moment. Otherwise...a few scattered
SHRA/TSRA are noted across North and Central Texas...with the
majority of the convection south of a KMKN to KLXY line. A few
cloud flashes are noted in real-time lightning data for a
thunderstorm over Limestone County (south of KLXY)...so will allow
VCTS to run for another hour at KACT to give things time to
diminish fully.
Heading into the forecast...North and Central Texas remain under
the influence of a surface trough situated across the interior of
the United States while a large surface high is anchored firmly
across the East Coast. This pattern will allow deep tropical
moisture to continue to make its way into Texas...bringing another
chance for scattered SHRA/TSRA on Monday. The RAP and NAM develop
convection as early as 09/1500Z...but if the past few days are
any indication...this is probably a bit early...so will start VCTS
at 09/1800Z when confidence becomes a little greater. As has been
the case the past few days...any TSRA will be capable of
producing microbursts with wind gusts in excess of 40 KT along
with cloud-to-ground lightning and tops to FL400. South flow
should be a little better established on Tuesday as the
aforementioned high over the East Coast nudges eastward...but TS
outflow could result in some brief wind shifts. Convection should
wane late Monday evening with the loss of diurnal heating.
Godwin
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018/
/This Afternoon and Tonight/
Shower and thunderstorm coverage should be reaching its max in a
couple of hours during peak boundary layer heating. Storm mode is
mainly disorganized cells with occasional clusters or small lines,
all of which are moving slowly west. The primary threats will be
outflow winds, which could get particularly gusty 4 to 8 PM.
Cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain will also pose a
threat in the stronger storms, even if they remain below severe
limits. The loss of surface heating will allow lingering cells to
dissipate well before midnight.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018/
/Monday through Sunday/
Upper level high pressure will remain centered north of the region
through the week but will slowly build south on the weekend. North
and Central Texas will remain moderately unstable and moist for
much of the week with precipitable water values hovering around
2 inches at least through Thursday. Scattered afternoon
convection will be possible each day. The most favored area for
precipitation will be difficult to pinpoint since large scale
forcing will be negligible. Therefore, we will keep PoPs generally
in the 20 to 40 percent range. Storms will have a potential for
strong/gusty downburst winds and locally heavy rainfall each day.
Storm chances will decrease on the weekend due to drier air and
increasing subsidence under the ridge.
Unfortunately, many areas will not see appreciable rainfall this
week so vegetation will continue to dry out. This will keep the
fire threat elevated, especially near and west of I-35 even
though humidity will be high and wind speeds will be relatively
light. Wind speeds and the fire threat will both increase some
this weekend as surface low pressure slowly deepens across the
Central High Plains.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals to start the week
but will slowly increase mid week through the weekend with
building heights aloft and the return of southerly winds.
Increasing subsidence under the ridge and drier air will also
decrease afternoon precipitation chances.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 90 76 92 77 / 30 40 20 40 20
Waco 73 89 74 93 75 / 50 50 20 30 20
Paris 72 87 72 89 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
Denton 74 90 74 93 76 / 20 40 20 40 20
McKinney 73 88 74 91 75 / 30 40 20 40 20
Dallas 77 90 76 93 78 / 30 40 20 40 20
Terrell 74 90 74 93 76 / 40 50 20 40 20
Corsicana 74 88 73 91 74 / 50 50 20 30 20
Temple 72 87 73 92 75 / 50 50 20 20 20
Mineral Wells 73 89 72 92 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
37/91
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
301 PM PDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Lighter winds with continued above normal temperatures
next week. Thunderstorms are moving up into east-central NV today,
which will gradually expand north and west over the coming days.
Storms will also trend wetter over the coming days, with flash
flooding becoming possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...This evening through Tuesday. Above normal
temperatures will continue across the region through Tuesday.
Portions of central NV are seeing near to record high temperatures
which are expected again on Monday. Have issued a heat advisory
for southern Lander and Eureka Counties, along with northern Nye
County which is in effect from this afternoon through Monday
evening.
As high pressure continues to build up from the southwest, gusty
southwesterly winds across Humboldt County this afternoon and
evening will trend a little lower for Monday. Across east-
central NV this afternoon, thunderstorms are developing as moist
and unstable air under the building ridge gradually drifts north
and west up through NV. Storms into this evening will be mainly
across east-central NV, and will be fairly dry.
On Monday east-central NV storms will become wetter, with drier
storms developing into portions of Eureka and northeastern Elko
Counties. Storms on Tuesday may drift a little further west,
however latest guidance is showing most storm activity over White
Pine and eastern Elko Counties on Tuesday. Can not rule out
isolated activity into Lander, Eureka and portions of central Elko
County however.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday.
High pressure (currently centered over Colorado) slowly expands
westward through the long term period. In addition to expansion of
the subtropical ridge, an easterly wave travels across srn NV into
SoCal on Wednesday. While this wave does not provide any
dynamical wave, slight cooling aloft may boost convection
potential and higher equilibrium levels. Given the light steering
flow, cells mergers are likely with the most favorable environment
over White Pine county (possibly extending into northern Nye and
sern Elko counties). Moisture does not extend into Humboldt county
and expect this part of the forecast area to stay generally dry.
The axis of best instability may persist into Thursday for ern NV
with White Pine county being the bullseye. Beyond Thursday, there
is a decrease in precipitable water but still sufficient
instability for diurnally driven storms with convective initiation
over the high terrain of central NV. This cycle gets repeated
Friday through Sunday, the highest threat of storms over central
NV but decreasing toward the northern NV border and Humboldt
county.
&&
.AVIATION...KELY and KTPH have the best chance to be affected by
thunderstorms into the evening hours. Sudden wind shifts to 40 kts
may occur with any gusty outflow winds from any thunderstorms. No
thunderstorms are expected at KWMC and KBAM. KEKO is on the
dividing line between the stable air mass to the west, and
unstable environment from the east and south. Current hourly
guidance and the HRRR keep thunder to the south and east of KEKO.
Similar conditions on Monday, with KEKO on the fringe of
convective activity.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds and low humidity will persist across
northwestern NV into this evening. Far western portions of zone
467 may have some winds gusts of 25-35 mph Monday afternoon, but
in general lighter winds are expected for zone 467 and 468 Monday.
Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorm activity is spreading up
into central NV this afternoon and will linger into the evening
hours. Most activity is expected across eastern 457 and the
southern half of 455.
Thunderstorm activity expands further west and north on Monday,
with storms beginning to transition from dry to wet. Zone 470 on
Monday is concerning, as any storms that develop across northern
portions will likely remain dry. Across southern portions of zone
470 on Monday, where most of the storm activity is expected,
storms will transition to wet, and may produce moderate to heavy
rains. Burn scars and active fires such as Boone Springs may have
local flooding or debris flows in any heavy rains.
Much above normal temperatures are expected again on Monday.
Lighter winds and increasing moisture will be the trend next week,
with western and northern fringes of thunderstorm activity being
the driest storms on any given day, with east-central NV storms
generally being the wettest.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central and
Western Humboldt County-Northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka
Counties South of Highway 50-White Pine County.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Northeastern Nye County-
Northwestern Nye County-Southern Lander County and Southern
Eureka County.
&&
$$
96/88/88/96
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
850 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.UPDATE...
Tonight...Boundary collisions finally generated scattered showers
and isolated storms over the interior early in the evening, but
otherwise there appeared to be some suppression of convection across
the area. A few pockets of lingering instability and boundary
interactions may keep a few showers/storms going slightly past
sunset so will keep small PoPs for that. The models show a weak
trough trailing from TS Chris producing moisture convergence over
the northern coastal waters. The HRRR model keeps showers north of
there and the local WRF confines them to the Atlantic waters.
Therefore, not planning on adding any rain chances for the overnight
in Volusia.
&&
.AVIATION...
Isolated storms over the interior will dissipate by 03z then
conditions look VFR overnight into Mon morning. Weak trough
extending from TS Chris should generate some showers/storms over the
Atlantic which begin to get close to KDAB-KTIX late Mon morning.
Weak forcing from this boundary and normal daytime heating should
then generate a greater coverage of showers/storms Mon afternoon,
with greatest affects occurring at the interior terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Monday...A weak trailing trough from TS Chris is forecast to
drop into the waters on Mon. This will produce a northwest-north
wind flow. Speeds look to be 10 knots or less. Wave guidance is
showing building seas as swells emanate outward from Chris. We`ve
capped offshore seas at 5 feet for now. Scattered showers and
isolated storms should accompany the trough, affecting mainly the
waters from Cape Canaveral northward on Mon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River has been slowly rising due to persistent
summertime rains. This will continue to be the case early this week
as local heavy rains occur in the afternoon and evening.
At Astor, the most recent stage was 2.05 feet, which is slightly
above Action Stage (2.0 feet). The river is forecast to rise only
slightly to 2.1 feet and remain below Flood Stage (2.3 feet) through
midweek.
At Sanford, the most recent stage was 4.94 feet, which is above
Action Stage (4.2 feet). The river is forecast to rise only slightly
to 5.2 feet by midweek and stay below Flood Stage (5.5 feet).
Near Geneva, just south of Lake Harney, the most recent stage was
8.68 feet, which is above Flood Stage (8.0 feet). The river is
forecast to rise only slowly to about 8.7 feet through midweek and
stay below Moderate Flood Stage (9.0 feet).
Near Deland, the most recent stage was 3.23 feet, which is below
Action Stage (3.5 feet). The river is forecast to rise only slowly
to about 3.4 by midweek, staying just below Action Stage.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...Lascody
RADAR/IMPACT WX...Combs & Weitlich