Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/18

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Upper high center of circulation over wrn CO next 24 hours. Showers and storms will generally move from northwest to southeast. Storms moving out of srn CO into nrn NM may strengthen mid evening with an associated outflow boundary, which may persist after 06Z into the KABQ area then track into west central NM. Lcl MVFR cigs/vsbys and brief terrain obscurations in the stronger storms along with wind gusts to around 40kts are possible. Lcl MVFR cigs may also develop over portions of ne NM in the KLVS area after 06Z and persist until around 07/14Z due to moist upslope flow. Scattered storms to redevelop aft 07/18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018... .SYNOPSIS... It has not been quite as active this afternoon across the Land of Enchantment. However, some high resolution models suggest that storm coverage will increase overnight as storms developing in Colorado shift southward. Daily round of shower and thunderstorm activity are on tap for the next week. After an uptick in storm coverage over the weekend, a downtick is again expected for Monday, especially across eastern New Mexico. Next week, storms look to favor western New Mexico. Some heavy rains will be likely and flash flooding will remain possible over area burn scars. && .DISCUSSION... A much slower day in terms of showers and thunderstorms thus far. However, the HRRR, and to some extent the RAP, have persistently showed that showers and thunderstorms now developing over southern Colorado, will track southward into northern NM late tonight. The HRRR even suggests that storms will make it as far south as ABQ after midnight. It may very well be more active at 2am than at 2pm this afternoon. Have increased PoPs overnight for this reason. There should be an increase in storm coverage on Saturday afternoon as compared to this afternoon. Storm motion will be similar, generally drifting toward the southwest. Little change is expected for Sunday, though some drier mid level air will be moving into northeast NM limiting storm chances there. Another downtick in storm coverage is expected for Monday, especially for eastern NM as drier air continues to filter into the area. Next week it appears that the upper high will slowly meander to the east, and some moisture may arrive from the south. At this time, it looks like western NM will be favored for precipitation for the mid week period. Eastern NM appears to be on the drier side, but this will all depend on how the upper high shifts. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... A downtick in storm coverage today will give way to showers and storms overnight for the northern half of the state. Storm motions will be slow toward the west and southwest. Saturday and Sunday will feature an increase in storm coverage with more heavy rainfall and possible burn scar flash flooding. The focus for the heavier storms will shift into western New Mexico and Arizona Monday and Tuesday as a more stable airmass slides into the eastern half of the state. The latest model guidance is no longer in very good agreement with where the eastern extent of monsoon moisture and instability will focus beyond Tuesday. This will likely change daily while several easterly waves evolve across the southern U.S. At this time the greatest potential for slow-moving storms with heavy rainfall will be over the western third of New Mexico into next week. Temperatures will also be near to slightly below normal for the entire area. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones... NMZ510>515. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
926 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 The forecast remains on track this evening as all of the showers that occurred this evening across the western part of the CWA have dissipated. It will be a mostly clear night with temps a few degrees above normal. One change that was made to the forecast was to decrease dew points around the Denver metro area tomorrow afternoon as the area should mix down drier air by the afternoon. This brings the relative humidities close to 15 percent but with recent rainfall in the area and weak to moderate winds, fire weather concerns remain minimal. Have kept the POPs very low across the urban corridor and plains tomorrow afternoon despite a few high resolution models showing a couple storms making it off the foothills. This is because the mean layer wind will be from the northeast with minimal shear to sustain storms as they move away from the orographic ascent from the mountains. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 500 mb high center will remain over western Colorado through Saturday, with northeasterly upper level winds pushing into the area to keep the high country convection from spreading out over the plains. Scattered thunderstorms in the mountains will continue moving south then to the southwest before they dissipate this evening. A surface boundary along and just east of the I-25 corridor may be able to act as a focus, however recent ACARS soundings still showing a cap around 700 mb which should prevent too much from occurring. Therefore not liking the recent run of the operational HRRR showing a large area of thunderstorms pushing south from Wyoming late this afternoon into the evening. Will keep the dry forecast for this period over the metro areas and the plains. Warm advection and a deepening surface lee-trough overnight will keep temperatures moderated and warmer than last nights readings, especially along the foothills and adjacent plains. This will aid in higher max temperatures tomorrow as well. Just a slight uptick in PW values tomorrow will allow for slightly higher coverage of storms over the high country, however the plains look to remain capped again. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 The large upper level ridge will dominate our weather over the next several days, resulting in above normal temperatures and limiting thunderstorm chances. The center of the ridge is expected to shift slowly east/northeast into Nebraska by Monday and then remain there through the middle of next week. The main change over the last 24 hours is the trend of the upper level ridge to hold in place longer, which would likely delay the arrival of a cold front until later next week. The plains should remain mainly dry and quite hot through this period, with only a slight chance of a storm or two developing. The best opportunity of this happening would be late Sunday as the flow tilts a bit more southwesterly aloft, and then again toward the latter half of next weak with potential for a weak front. In the mountains, we will see isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening due to elevated heating and some mid level moisture trapped under the ridge. At this point, we don`t see much threat of any heavy rainfall in the north central mountains as the core of the monsoonal plume shifts west into western Colorado, Arizona, and Utah. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 VFR conditions will persist through Saturday night. TDEN velocity and nearby observations show moderate south-southeasterly winds over DEN and APA and these will begin to veer to south- southwesterly overnight. During the morning, winds will become light and somewhat variable as there will be weak low level flow. Can`t rule out an outflow boundary from a shower or storms shifting winds tomorrow afternoon but chances look to be very low due to mean layer winds coming out of the northeast. This should keep the storms and their associated winds confined to the mountains and foothills. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Danielson SHORT TERM...Kriederman LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
850 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...The surface outflow boundaries that helped fire off the afternoon and early evening conv have weakened with only some lingering conv over Zapata and Starr Counties. With the dying out of the conv, expect VFR conditions to prevail at least through the late evening and overnight hours. The latest HRRR guidance keeps the RGV airports mainly conv free throughout the night. Then expect daytime heating tomorrow to intiate more conv which could periodically reduce ceilings/vsbys down to brief MVFR/IFR levels later in the upcoming TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): WV imagery is telling the story across the US today. Our flow aloft is generally northeasterly around a very strong upper level high just north of the Grand Canyon (~600 dam heat bubble out that way). Here in Deep South TX, an upper level inverted trough has developed and is moving generally along the TX coast. This trough has ignited shower and Tstorm activity across CRP waters and this activity has been drifting south and westward toward our region. For what it`s worth, originally thought there would be convection erupt along the I69C corridor this afternoon. Though there still may be convective development, CAMs is a little out to lunch, if you will with much of the activity today being confined to Cameron County...which was not caught by CAMs early on today. Regardless, with plenty of instability, limited inhibition, and multiple surface boundaries, think that additional development will occur especially as the upper level trough nudges even more toward the region. Pwats out there are around 2" and we`ve seen some already fairly effective rainfall producers here in Brownsville and points north and east toward Bayview and NE Cameron County. Storm motion has been relatively slow with this activity. In fact, 0-6km winds are particularly weak. This may signify some slow moving thunderstorm activity. Although widespread hydro concerns are not expected, we still may have localized urbanized flooding in locations where we can get multiple slow moving storms to develop. Shower/storm activity or at least the chances will continue through tonight for much of the region. It will not rain the entire time for everyone, however, at any given time there will be that shot of rainfall. Surface troughing will remain in place across the region through the remainder of the period. This should provide at least some focus for shower and storm activity. Continued cloudiness and precipitation chances should keep temperatures down across the region, though with some breaks here and there we still will approach the lower 90s in most areas for Saturday. With the broad surface troughing, pressure gradient should remain rather light so not expecting much of a breeze out there (for a change). LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): The inverted trough will be moving west across Texas Sunday, continuing the modest instability in the region. Moisture remains ample during this period, noted by PW values near 2 inches. With highs again reaching the 90s, the seabreeze should have no trouble sparking showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Rain chances begin to decrease Tuesday through Thursday as the H5 ridge to the north builds back southward across Texas. This will decrease the rain chances across the region, but with Gulf moisture remaining in place, can`t discount a few seabreeze showers still forming during peak heating. The next more robust trough sweeping across the Gulf into Texas is currently timed to arrive next Friday, bringing another swath of Gulf moisture into the region. Chances for rainfall currently starting to look more likely for over next weekend. MARINE: Tonight through Saturday Night: Very benign marine conditions expected through the short term. Seas of 1 to 2 feet can be expected with relatively light and variable winds. An upper level trough will move through the region bringing with it the chances of shower and thunderstorm activity through the period. Although no significant marine issues is currently expected, there may be some locally agitated seas in the stronger convection. Sunday through Tuesday: Winds continue at modest levels through the middle of next week, with winds around 10 knots each day. Seas will generally stay around 2 feet through the period, with some brief increases to around 3 feet on Monday with some slightly higher winds. Rain chances will continue through Wednesday, but most activity will be isolated in nature. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Short Term/Aviation...60 Long Term/Upper Air/Graphicast...59
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
835 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .UPDATE... An approaching shortwave and associated cold front brought some isolated showers and thunderstorms to mainly north central Montana this evening, with a couple showers earlier over Wheatland County. The aforementioned cold front will move through the area overnight, bringing slightly cooler conditions for Saturday. Have adjusted sky cover, winds, and temperatures to current trends. Rest of the forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion and an updated aviation discussion are below. STP && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... Upper level ridge bringing the heat will shift eastward overnight letting a weak cold front slide into the area. Isolated thunderstorms over the western mountains this evening but HRRR continues to not want to produce convection so expect any activity to be short lived. Despite impressive dewpoints over southeast Montana expect the migration of the 700mb temperature axis eastward to maintain the cap. Saturday slightly cooler behind the front with northeasterly flow with isolated thunderstorms possible late in the day. Expect a better chance of this activity due to a weaker cap but stronger shear aloft and marginal moisture should put a limit of convection. Temperatures closer to normal with heights suppressed and surface trough east of the region. Similar set up on Sunday with CAPE not strong enough for the shear aloft that will be present. Models indicate a bit better chance for convection tracking across the area as a weak warm front shifts into the area in the evening. borsum .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... Several changes through the extended forecast period, generally centered around trending pops upward, and adding some isolated pops in response to more active looking extended forecast grids. Generally dirty ridge to zonal flow will prevail for upper level flow through the extended period, as monsoonal moisture begins working into the region. This points to mostly quiet weather, but with periods of isolated shower and thunderstorm activity especially for high terrain. Eastern zones will also see periodic potential, especially in evening and night, with low level jet and less impact from downslope flow. Timing of precip is uncertain, due to relatively weak waves, resulting in more broadbrush type pops. Based on MEX guidance, temperatures appear to remain well above normal for the extended period. Have trended temps through the period upward from Tuesday onward, due to inherent climatological bias in models guidance. Expect temps mainly in or very close to the 90s through the bulk of the extended forecast period. AAG && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail tonight. RMS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 063/090 063/088 063/093 069/096 064/089 061/093 061/090 10/U 10/U 11/U 21/B 20/U 11/U 11/U LVM 055/088 055/086 055/092 060/094 055/087 052/091 053/088 02/T 21/U 11/U 21/B 21/U 11/U 11/U HDN 061/093 062/090 063/096 067/099 064/090 061/095 061/091 00/U 10/U 11/U 21/B 21/B 11/U 11/U MLS 066/094 063/090 065/094 070/100 066/090 062/093 063/091 00/U 10/U 23/T 21/B 21/B 10/U 11/U 4BQ 065/096 063/091 066/094 068/102 065/091 062/094 061/092 00/U 20/U 22/T 21/G 21/B 11/U 21/U BHK 067/095 062/088 062/089 066/097 063/089 059/090 059/089 00/U 30/U 23/T 21/B 21/B 11/U 21/U SHR 062/092 059/088 061/091 062/096 062/088 057/091 057/090 11/U 10/U 22/T 21/B 21/B 11/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
654 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Convection over parts of north central Kansas and extreme south central Nebraska will continue into early evening. PW close to 2 inches along with light south flow providing moisture advection in low to mid levels near an instability axis is helping to get convection going. Outflow boundaries from initial convection is also adding to the mix. A persistent upper level divergence will finally move out by early evening and along with loss of insolation, our convection should finally come to an end in our south. Short term models have not been the best with handling this convection, although the latest HRRR among others was at least picking up on the activity. Fog does not look like it will be an issue like it was last night and early this morning as wind speeds will stay up a bit and SREF ensembles are predicting a way less chance of fog development. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Mid to upper level ridging to the west will boost temps to near or just above normal for the weekend as we will be on the eastern side of its influence. The upper high expands east next work week and will boost temps higher into the 90s. The influence of this high will keep the forecast dry, but in this environment, could not rule out a rogue storm or two at some point through 7 days. Generally an ensemble forecast as decent agreement exists in the extended numerical model realm. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday) Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF valid period. A light east wind early this evening will become light and variable overnight and then become southerly Saturday morning. Dry conditions are expected to continue. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Heinlein LONG TERM...Heinlein AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Upper level ridging and resulting surface high pressure will keep conditions dry Friday night and Saturday. Despite high pressure, breezy conditions will continue Friday night and Saturday. Winds gusting up to 20 mph Friday night will keep fog from developing especially across the north where winds are expected to be the highest. Will hold off on putting any patchy fog in the forecast for points south of I-80. Clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s across the forecast area. For Saturday...dry weather will continue as well as blustery winds. South to southwest winds will gust 25 to 30 mph on Saturday.In addition to strong winds, clear skies combined with high dewpoints and temperatures ranging from the mid 90s across Pine Ridge to the upper 80s near Broken Bow will result in heat indices to rise into the mid 90s by Saturday afternoon. Neighbors to the north have issued a heat advisory for Saturday afternoon. Will hold off for now as current thinking is strong winds will help to mitigate some of heat tomorrow afternoon. This deserves a second look during the evening and overnight forecast. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 The atmosphere across Nebraska has entered a quasi-barotropic state featuring weak winds and warm temperatures aloft. The models suggest this pattern will continue for the next 7 days. The stronger westerlies have retreated into the northern Plains while deep easterlies have set up from Oklahoma southward. The models suggest sfc easterlies will continue across the south with strong south sfc winds across the northern Plains. This should support some sort of low level moisture divergence across Nebraska but we`ve yet to see that develop with another bout of stratus forecast tonight by the RAP model. It`s possible that the nocturnal low level jet will operate nightly and produce a moisture surge during the next 7 days. Mixing processes would then cause a net decrease in moisture during the daytime. The forecast concern is temperatures and dew points which could ultimately lead to heat advisory conditions Sunday and next week. The forecast continues to follow a model blend for highs in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the 60s. If this forecast verifies then heat indices should remain below 100; the heat advisory threshold. Our only rain chance is across northern Nebraska Sunday evening and the models have trended this down to just an isolated chance. The forcing is weak and moisture pooling is focused across South Dakota. Another rain opportunity might develop late next week. At some point a weakness should develop in the upper level ridge forcing a portion of it west into the Rockies and another portion into the midwest. When this occurs a stationary front will set up across Nebraska providing a focus for rainfall. The ECM suggested this will occur Thursday while the GFS indicated Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 VFR anticipated across all west central Nebraska TAF sites through the forecast period, though a sct deck of cumulus AOA 3000ft AGL may briefly impact KLBF this evening. There is an area of moisture convergence to the southeast of KLBF which some cumulus is becoming agitated, so we cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm in the vicinity of KLBF this evening, though the best chances will be south in north central Kansas. Otherwise with high pressure to the east, southerly winds will largely prevail. Overall forecast confidence is strong due to good model agreement. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Jacobs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1006 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Small complex of thunderstorms moving into west central MN at this time. Does seem to be weakening somewhat as it works farther east into MN, with more stable conditions. HRRR trends work it into central MN through about 00z and then it dissipates. Will hold that trend and end PoPs around 00z. Otherwise some debris works through and gradually dissipates as well. Dry trend into Saturday with temperatures gradually warming ahead of the next incoming front over North Dakota. Dewpoints increase as do winds on the backside of the retreating High. This will generate breezy conditions by late morning over most of MN. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Main concern in the long term is timing and convective potential of front dropping over the area Sunday night and Monday with another front progged into the area Wed/Thu time frame. Current marginal severe risk reasonable with incoming front Sunday night. Most model dont drive it too far south overnight and weaken it as the night progresses as main jet energy rides off to the northeast. Should still see likely thunder dropping into the area, perhaps later in the evening into central MN. The front moves south Monday and will hold onto some lower end PoPs into Monday night as well. Next best shot of precipitation arrives again later Wednesday into Thursday with the next frontal passage. The GFS is a bit faster with this system with the ECMWF lagging a bit in timing. It does look like a faster flow developing aloft with the jet riding along the MN/Canadian border, driving more frequent frontal passages through at least next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Little changes to going TAFs with 6z set. Still look to see breezy south winds Saturday, though those breezes will carry into the night quite a ways with the gradient relaxing little. Any storms this period will remain well to the northwest of the MPX CWA. KMSP...High confidence in TAFs with no additional concerns /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA late. Winds SW at 10G20 kts. Mon...Chc MVFR. Slight chc -TSRA in mrng. Winds lgt and vrb. Tue...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM... AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 ...Isolated to Scattered Storms over the Higher Terrain... Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating the center of a large upper high over northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, with more north to northeast flow aloft across the region today. This has shunted the moisture plume, which was across south central and southeast Colorado yesterday, south and west of the area today, with NCEP 12Z analysis indicating PWATS at GJT of 0.85 inches (141 percent of normal), 0.69 inches (108 percent of normal) at DNR and 1.03 inches (160 percent of normal) at ABQ. At the surface, low level moisture remains in place, with dew pts in the 50s to lower 60s across the Plains and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, though subsidence under the high and lack of any significant trigger, has kept convection at bay across the Plains, save for a few isolated TCU across extreme eastern Prowers and Baca Counties. Regional radars indicating the weak northerly flow aloft, with isolated to scattered showers and storms, most numerous across the Central and Southwest Mountains, moving slowly from north to south this afternoon. Tonight-Saturday...No big changes in the ongoing forecast with the upper high centered over western Colorado progged to slowly lift north and east through the day tomorrow. This will keep weak north to northeast flow aloft across the region with the best atmospheric moisture expected to be west of the area. With that said, not buying the latest HRRR forecast, which develops convection across southeast Wyoming this evening, and spreads it south across the northeast Plains of Colorado this evening and then continues across the southeast Plains after midnight. I am expecting enough residual moisture to keep isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms in the forecast for areas over and near the higher terrain tomorrow, with the best coverage of storms over and west of the Continental Divide. With the continued weak steering flow aloft, storms will still have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially if they develop over any recent burn area. Temperatures look to be warm back to at and slightly above seasonal, with highs tomorrow in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 60s to lower 80s across the higher terrain. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 Rather stagnant weather pattern expected to persist across the area the next several days as upper level high pressure drifts through the Central Rockies into early next week before slowly shifting eastward into the Central Plains by week`s end. With high position remaining generally north of the region through the period, easterly mid level flow will keep deepest moisture shunted south and west of southern Colorado, and areas from I-25 eastward onto the plains will see little in the way of precip the next several days. Over the eastern mountains and interior valleys, enough moisture will linger to produce isolated afternoon/evening tsra each day, while central/southwest mountains see slightly better chances of rainfall as they remain on the eastern fringe of the mid level moist plume. Weak steering currents will tend to move storms w-sw the next few days, with at least a low threat of heavy rainfall under any stronger convection. Some hint of increasing convective chances late next week as high drifts east and mid level moisture begins to sneak northward, with weak frontal boundary drifting south through the plains perhaps aiding convection as well. Temperatures the next several days will remain above seasonal averages, though with low/mid level easterly flow, chances for extreme heat look less likely as maxes top out mainly in the 90s over the plains, 70s/80s mountains and interior valleys. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri Jul 6 2018 VFR conditions with diurnal wind regimes are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, as upper level high pressure remains over northwestern Colorado and will keep more north to northeast flow aloft this afternoon through tomorrow. This will keep most of the convection tied to over and west of the higher terrain. With that said, best chances of storms developing or moving across the terminals will be at ALS in the late afternoon hours. Gusty winds, locally heavy rain and brief MVFR conditions will be possible with storms. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MW