Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/06/18

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
920 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .UPDATE... Cancelled the Flash Flood warning for the northern mountains as most of the activity has propagated to the west/southwest. Not a lot of confidence in the RAP13/HRRR for the rest of the night in regards to areal coverage of precipitation, although they tend to taper it off but the HRRR breaks out some minor precipitation over the ne after midnight. Updated ZFP already transmitted. && .PREV DISCUSSION...556 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening across northeast and north central NM, while isolated activity will continue across central NM south of I-40. Brief MVFR visibility is likely in stronger thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish after midnight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across all of northern NM Friday afternoon with brief MVFR visibility in stronger thunderstorms. Winds Friday will generally be below 12 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon. 28 && .PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Daily rounds of wetting showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next 7 days, since the subtropical ridge of high pressure finally shifted north of New Mexico. As is typical with the monsoon, western and north central areas will generally be favored for the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms, where the mountains should generally receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain over the next week. Coverage of storms should be less over central areas, and even less across the east in general. However, an easterly wave passing south of New Mexico should produce better coverage of storms over central and eastern areas late Sunday and Sunday night. Another uptick in the coverage of storms will be possible Wednesday and Wednesday night, and perhaps into Thursday, as a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge crosses New Mexico from the northeast. With all the moisture and cloud cover in place high temperatures will generally vary from a few to several degrees below normal each afternoon, while morning low temperatures vary from a few to around 5 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... While the western and northern mountains have a good chance of 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next week, precipitation amounts across central areas should vary from 0.25 to 1 inch, with up to a half inch possible across the eastern plains. Of course, locally heavier amounts will be possible. There will also be a risk of flash flooding below burn scars mainly during the afternoons and evenings. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement on the position of the subtropical ridge axis until late next week when they differ some on the strength and timing of another easterly wave that will approach NM from the east. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... Monsoon moisture is now in place across New Mexico with showers and storms already producing locally heavy rainfall today. Steering flow will force storms off to the west today and Friday then southwest on Saturday. The threat for burn scar flash flooding will continue over the weekend for the northern and western high terrain. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal for much of the state with this pattern along with very good to excellent humidity recoveries every night. A slight downtick in storm coverage is expected Sunday and Monday with a focus more over the western half of the state. An even more significant surge of moisture is possible by the middle of next week. Each additional round of locally heavy rainfall over the state will exacerbate the flash flood threat and significantly lower the wildland fire risk through next week. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1201 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity will come to an end with the passage of a cold front later tonight and early Friday. Cooler and less humid air will be moving in behind the cold front and will last all weekend, followed by gradually moderating temperatures early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... We trimmed the flood watch back to just SE zones to account for the HREF showing some measure of organization to the frontal precip late tonight and Friday morning. Otherwise convection has been pretty underachieving as the high CAPE atmosphere failed to provide the lapse rates necessary to keep the activity going. The hourly HRRR has been of little help in the weakly forced atmosphere over-forecasting the extent of the convection pretty consistently over the last couple of days. Temps will be very muggy for one last night over most of the CWA except for the far NW. Mins will vary from the Low 60s over the NW Mtns to the mid 70s throughout the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The cold front will move steadily through the SE half of the state during the morning and early afternoon hours. POPs are maxed-out around 90 percent across the Central Ridge and Valley region and Lower Susq Valley in the morning. POPs will drop-off fast by the mid afternoon over the Lower Susq Valley, and staying at near zero percent all day over the far NW part of the CWA under refreshing NW flow and cool/dry advection at all levels. Temps will be refreshingly cooler with only L70s as highs in the higher elevs and NWrn counties and upper 70s to L80s across the Central and SE Valleys. These numbers will be a couple degrees below normals. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s by noon in the NW, and over most of the area by sunset. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... *Cooler and refreshingly less humid air will arrive this weekend and may last into Monday. The cold front should be to our south at 18Z Fri. This will bring relief from the relentlessly hot/humid weather as cooler and less humid air sweeps southeast from Canada. Showers may drop in from the Great Lakes in the mid-week period, but Sat-Mon looks dry with seasonable temps, and welcome surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. PWAT values plummet to an impressive minus 2-3 sigma Saturday morning, then stay in the minus 1-2 sigma range into early Monday as an area of high pressure (1024-1028 mb on the GEFS) drifts SE from the upper midwest and becomes located over the state Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Precipitation coverage across Central Pennsylvania pretty minimal at 04z. Only a few scattered showers noted in the vicinity of KFIG and KUNV. Actual cold frontal passage is expected to reinvigorate SHRA/TSRA late overnight into Friday morning. Short range models seem to have been overdoing convection all evening, but continue to regenerate a broken line of storms moving from NW to SE overnight. By Friday morning, focus of convection and rain should be across the south and southeast, and is expected to continue to push to the south and east. Some lingering fog and lower clouds are possible central and northern areas Friday morning with MVFR to possible IFR restrictions. Significant push of drier air will move into the area from north to south Friday, with VFR conditions building south through the area. These VFR conditions will last at least through Monday. .Outlook... Fri...SHRA/TSRA impacts SE in the morning, along with some low cloud and fog restrictions central and northern areas. Becoming VFR. Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Sct SHRA/TSRA possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-056-057- 059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Lambert/Tyburski AVIATION...Jung
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
840 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 747 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Little to no precipitation has fallen this evening, except in northern Carbon County where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning had been issued with torrential rainfall indicated by radar. Otherwise, a few areas of light rainfall, but nothing substantial really ever generated. Therefore, have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch over the Snowy Range. Flash flooding is no longer a threat this evening. Otherwise, strong sustained winds out of the south will be the story of the evening as a 800 mb jet with 30 kt flow has already set up over region. Winds will continue in this fashion through the night and into tomorrow, though the focus of these winds will shift east to areas along and east of the Laramie Range. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening - Overnight) Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the Snowy Range and the Badger Creek Fire burn scar. Thunderstorms are beginning to increase in both coverage/intensity across the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming, with a few cells already observed in the vicinity of the burn scar. Precipitable water values remain at or above the 90th percentile for July. This suggests the potential for locally heavy rainfall with developing storms. H5 flow appears very weak (only around 10 knots), so would anticipate slow motions to persist. This would only enhance the potential for flash floods and dangerous/life threatening debris flows during the next 2 to 4 hours, so we will need to monitor this situation closely as HRRR & other high-resolution models continue to suggest potentially heavy precipitation cores near the burn scar area. Convection should eventually spread east across the high plains of southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle, although better chances should exist further south along the I80 corridor. Overall forcing is quite weak, but a weak short-wave traversing the flow along the edge of the central/southern US ridge should be sufficient. If any additional storms develop, environmental conditions will favor the risk for marginally severe hail/strong winds w/ SBCAPES from 2000- 4000 J/kg. However, shear is virtually non-existent so would think any stronger storms will be pulse-type. Convection may become some what more organized this evening as a 30+ knot jet develops across the high plains at 800 hpa, perhaps as some sort of linear complex tracking east across the region. Thunderstorm activity should move east of the area by late this evening. A period of gusty winds may develop over the high plains overnight in association with the aforementioned low-level jet. GFS sounding data suggests a minimal inversion along with 20 to 30 kt flow just off the surface, while the NAM suggests a more substantial surface based inversion. Regardless, w/ a decent surface pressure gradient we would anticipate stronger winds over higher terrain areas, such as the Pine Ridge extending from east central WY into the northern NE Panhandle. If the GFS comes to fruition, windy conditions would be considerably more widespread with potential for 20 kt sustained winds at KCYS as well. .LONG TERM...(Friday - Thursday) Issued at 231 AM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Main highlight for the longer term remains on the above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions outside of very isolated peak-heating showers/storms over the higher terrain. Maximum temperatures will be about 5-10F degrees above normal during this stretch. While fire weather danger will remain below critical thresholds, increasing concern remains on fuels drying further after the wet spring and early summer. A 598DM H5 ridge will begin to insert its suppressing influence over the region Friday while SW H7 flow occurs and advects warmer air of 15-18C over the region. Isolated to scattered showers will again be possible over the higher terrain Friday afternoon but potency will be reduced given the mid-level height rises. Friday wil be the start of the warm-up with Saturday likely the warmest day of the period with low to upper 90s across the High Plains and even a few spot 100s will be possible as H7 temperatures rise into the 18-20C range. Increased maximum surface temperatures 1-2F over model guidance. Will need to watch for some H5 ridge breakdown subtleties Sunday with some differences appearing the ECMWF vs. the GFS but overall pattern will be hot and dry with only isolated shower activity into early next week. Further H5 ridge break down looks more likely next Tuesday/Wednesday as an inverted trough possibly develops on the southern side of the ridge in CO and lead to some additional scattered shower activity for SE WY with NE remaining more dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Friday afternoon) Probability of thunderstorms is lower compared to earlier this afternoon as convection struggles to develop along and east of Interstate 25 early this evening. May completely remove VCTS over the next hour or two if activity does not pick up. Otherwise, upslope flow will continue across the region with gusty south to southeast winds at times, especially once the low level jet increases across the western NE terminals. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through tonight and into early Friday, but there is a slight chance at some low CIGS and IFR conditions around KSNY and KAIA between 09z to 15z Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Slow-moving thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall could impact the Badger Creek burn scar area this afternoon. Be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions. Flash flooding is possible, along with dangerous and life threatening debris flows. Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected over the next 72 hours. An area of high pressure over the southern plains will strengthen keeping winds mostly light and from the southeast. Southerly winds will bring increasing moisture in from the plains along a weak remnant cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will help keep relative humidity high along the Laramie range. This will keep fire weather conditions below critical for the next few days. A drying and warming trend is expected for this weekend but winds should remain sub critical. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AB SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...JSA AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...CLH/AL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 ...Aviation and Short-Term Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Based on radar trends, I significantly reduced PoPs for the rest of the overnight hours. Also reduced PoPs for tomorrow to more closely match hi-res model guidance. I expect that most of the area will remain dry. The most likely timeframe for showers/isolated thunderstorm is tomorrow morning. With light easterly winds tonight, I also introduced patchy fog to the grids in western portions of the area. This coninsides with where the HRRR and RAP show the lowest visibilities. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Satellite and observations show mostly cirrus around the forecast area this afternoon, but there are a few cumulus developing below the cirrus deck. Showers have moved out of the forecast area for the afternoon, but there are some more robust cumulus and a few showers and thunderstorms just to the south of the forecast area. The main concern for this forecast has been thunderstorm chances. Even with an upper level ridge across the area, there are a few mainly weak waves that move around the ridge. This pattern is typical for summertime. That brings the challenges of thunderstorm development. Most of the forecast models keep the forecast dry through tonight and into Friday. There are a few that keep some precipitation across the far south, or just to the south of the forecast area and that is where the best wave appears to be. The problem is that there could be a few isolated thunderstorms that develop in the warm air. Anything that develops could produce fairly heavy rainfall and without much for steering flow, will be slow to move. Most everyone will remain dry, but if under a thunderstorm, it could be fairly wet. For tonight and Friday have probably over done the area with a chance for precipitation, but have kept PoPs fairly low through the period. The best chance will probably be late tonight into Friday morning. Even without rain, most of the area will have some clouds during the day Friday which will help to keep temperatures on the cooler side. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 The main feature for the period will be an upper level ridge that will affect the area through the entire week. There are a few mainly weak waves that move across the ridge and bring some chances for thunderstorms. The first are a few lingering showers and thunderstorms for Friday evening, but it is a small area and not expected to last very long. For the period Saturday through Wednesday the ridge will be fairly strong. For now the forecast is dry, but with a few little waves, there could be an isolated thunderstorm here and there. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs mostly in the lower to mid 90s. Wednesday night into Thursday there will be a little stronger wave and there is a better chance for thunderstorms. There will be a cold front that moves through the forecast area which also helps to give a better chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Light easterly winds are expected overnight. Models continue to indicate MVFR cloud ceilings developing during the early morning and lasting through mid-morning before gradually lifting. There is also an outside chance for some reduced visibility from fog, though it appears that the best potential will be west of the terminals. Winds gradually become southeasterly tomorrow afternoon and should remain around 8-10kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Mangels SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
608 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 The previous forecast had measurable precipitation and thunderstorms likely across all of far eastern Colorado and into far western Kansas through the late afternoon and early evening. Have updated the forecast mainly for through this evening as there is a distinct lack of convective activity producing any rainfall along and west of a surface boundary pushing westward across the western third of the forecast area. The only activity along the boundary is just south of the forecast area in southwest Kansas, and that isn`t even propagating into the GLD forecast area. Therefore, have significantly reduced the probability and coverage of storms through much of this evening with a small increase during the overnight periods to blend in with the neighboring forecast areas. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Satellite continue to show an amplified pattern from the Pacific into central North America. Tonight...Mesoscale influences from this mornings convective complex has caused model output to play catchup. From trends and performance since yesterday, the Arw and Hrrr looks to be the closest to depicting the current situation. Air mass remains very moist with strong low level upslope in place. Small scale shortwaves are rotating around mid level ridge that is located over and north of the area which makes timing problematic. There looks to be a weak right rear quadrant of the upper jet across the northwest half of the area into the night. In general expect coverage to increase from the south and west as last night. Steering flow is not very strong with 1 to 1.5 inch PW values. So do expect locally rainfall. As it stands now, it looks like the axis of heaviest rainfall will stay to the west of our area. However there still looks to be locally heavy rainfall. Fortunately where the heavy rainfall is expected tonight is different from this mornings rainfall. Friday/Friday night...As is typical with a weakly forced environment due to a number weak shortwave troughs rotating through and little to no flow aloft, there looks to be not only lingering thunderstorms in the morning but gradually increasing storm coverage and intensity through the day. Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the biggest threat due to the weak flow and continued above normal Precipitable Water values. Forecast blend has a low chance of precipitation during the night. However I can see where this could be a little higher. Due to the moist air mass and the amount of cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, lowered maxes from what the forecast blend had. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Upper-level ridging will dominate the synoptic pattern over the Tri-State region and much of the Intermountain West during this weekend. This will lead to relatively weak north-northeasterly upper-level flow, shifting towards more easterly as the center of the upper-level ridge moves towards the Northern Great Plains. This will provide weak synoptic forcing for any thunderstorms through the weekend. A weak surface low in southeast Colorado and a stronger surface high in the Midwest will combine to bring south-southeasterly low-level flow over the Central High Plains. Warm, moist air carried by these surface southerlies will continue to provide enough instability for isolated showers and thunderstorms through Sunday, mostly in the afternoons. This warm, moist air will also cause the area to slowly warm up with highs in the lower 90s Saturday and mid 90s Sunday. Continuing through Thursday, an upper level high remains in place over the central CONUS. Tuesday, a shortwave trough moves over the extreme Northern Plains. This will not give us the lift for any type of organized convection. This will however provide enough instability for diurnal convection each afternoon, especially with the warm, moist southerly flow. The highest chances for convection will be Wednesday and THursday as leeside surface lows form leading to upslope flow. In previous runs, the ECMWF was more progressive than the GFS but that has since changed. There are now temporal differences between the two models that could affect the surface flow gradient thus the wind speeds. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Have kept GLD and MCK VFR through the 00Z TAF period with a lower VFR ceiling expected from the early morning hours through about mid day on Friday. The thunderstorm activity extending from this evening through the overnight hours into Friday morning should be isolated in nature near the TAF sites and/or remain south of MCK and GLD. Have therefore kept out any mention of TS at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LOCKHART SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...PATTON/SANDERSON/NEWMAN AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1151 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 For those looking for cooler less humid conditions the change comes tonight. A cold front will surge south through the area this evening and bring in less muggy air from the north. A very distinct change in air mass will be noted by all tomorrow. 90s for highs will be replaced by 70s to near 80 on Friday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may occur along the frontal passage this evening, although most areas will remain dry. High pressure will remain firmly in control of the area weather over the weekend, with dry conditions, plenty of sunshine, less humid air and highs in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 604 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 I have updated the forecast to have no mention of showers/thunderstorms for this evening. This is based on radar trends as the dry air continues to move into the CWA even as I write this. It`s clear to this forecaster the risk of convection in our CWA is just about done. So, I expunded the risk of showers and thunderstorms from our grids for this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Concerns in the short term are minimal and occur this evening. The cold front at 300pm is still poised upstream stretching from the Straits of Mackinac into Central Wisconsin. It is behind this line where the dew points drop off into the 50s. There are even some 40s dew points across the U.P. GOES-16 shows our forecast area almost devoid of cumulus development which is directly related to a stabilizing, divergent wind off of Lake Michigan which we often see in these regimes. So, the question is do we see any shower/ thunderstorm development along the cold front this afternoon and evening. Multiple runs of the HRRR today have continued to show mainly dry conditions with this frontal passage. Some shower and storms form off to our east and south, but we stay mainly dry. We have 20-40 pops in the forecast, highest to the south and east, before dwindling to zero by around midnight. Again, most locations will remain dry. Dry and mainly clear weather is expected from Friday through Saturday night with high pressure anchored in the Southern Great Lakes. Much more pleasant weather for outdoor activities with cooler temperatures and much less humidity (dew points in the 50s). .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 During the long term period we will be situated between the main belt of the westerlies which will be just off to our north and a broad upper ridge that will cover much of the CONUS. What this means for us is warmer weather and limited chances for rainfall. 500mb heights will be near 590dm which is a typical mid summer value. Heights at these numbers should result in high temperatures well into the 80s each day. 850mb temps in the middle to upper teens C also confirm highs in the 80s if not pushing near 90 at times. As for the threat of any precipitation, the prospects look low. The first chances comes Monday afternoon and evening as a weakening cold front drops in out of the north. The next chance comes Wednesday night into Thursday with another cold front. In both cases the mid level support in terms of a shortwave is well off to our north. We have opted to go dry with the first front on Monday and carry small pops (20-30 pct) on Thursday with the second front. Confidence out on day 7 is not high as this time, but the shortwave associated with that front in at least the GFS makes better inroads into our area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1150 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period (and into the weekend) much drier air filters into the region. Brief gusty northerly winds of 15-20 kts as well as marginal low-level wind shear are possible right at the start of the TAF period at LAN/BTL/AZO in association with a frontal passage but the period of winds and shear is expected to be too short to include in the TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Have opted to hold off on any Small Craft or Beach Hazards headlines with this issuance. As stated in the prior marine discussion we become a bit concerned with advancing high pressure systems out of the northwest. These scenarios increase funneling down our shoreline, which usually increases wind into the 15-25 knot range producing waves of 3 to 5 feet. The NAMnest is indicating a 2-4 hour window Friday afternoon where 18-22 knot winds are possible from Grand Haven south. We feel confident that waves will build into the 2-4 foot range Friday afternoon and evening south of Holland especially. If winds come in a bit stronger we may need headlines. Prior to the wind tomorrow afternoon, we are expecting an increase in northeast winds tonight behind the cold front especially between 200am and 800am. This increase in wind may bump up waves heights as well at daybreak, likely into the 1-3 foot range near the shore. Once we get beyond sunset Friday evening the conditions look quiet over the weekend with a sprawling high pressure system in place over the Great Lakes. Winds over the weekend will generally be below 10-15 knots with waves less than 2 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 River levels are a little above normal for this time of year, but steady or slowly falling. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area into the evening. Rainfall will be highly variable. Under two tenths of an inch of rain is expected most places through the week, but any thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain with highly localized flooding. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...Duke SHORT TERM...Duke LONG TERM...Duke AVIATION...Borchardt HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
946 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front will continue this evening before tapering off overnight. Dry weather and cooler temperatures will accompany high pressure arriving Friday, with tranquil weather conditions persisting through the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Virtually the entire ILN CWA has been worked over by convection today, leaving generally stable boundary layer conditions behind, as evidenced by the decay of even the few areas of showers still being observed. Despite this, the 00Z KILN sounding is not completely devoid of instability aloft, above a warm layer near 800mb-850mb. There is very little forcing to speak of, suggesting that most locations tonight will remain dry. However, isolated pop-up showers (and maybe storms) might still remain possible in this air mass ahead of the approaching cold front. The HRRR has suggested that storms currently over north-central Ohio might eventually propagate into the eastern sections of the ILN CWA overnight, warranting a slightly higher chance of precipitation there. Not that much of a drying trend has started yet, but northerly flow is expected to kick in for the northern / northwestern CWA late in the overnight period, which might actually be enough to allow dewpoints and temperatures to drop to near or just below 70 degrees. Previous discussion > Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed as expected in a strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment in place ahead of a cold front near Chicago. These thunderstorms had initially formed along a prefrontal trough that is now hard to define near our southern border. Weak winds aloft are limiting storm strength, with sub severe wind gusts and hail observed so far. Heavy rain and possibly isolated flooding are still a concern in an airmass containing up to 2 inches PWAT. With the storms being driven mainly by instability, expect intensity and coverage to dwindle rapidly by sunset, and this scenario is supported by latest HRR. Still kept high chance pops through the overnight hours since the cold front will be crossing the area, providing sufficient convergence and lift for weak convection. One more night of above normal lows around 70 are forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will be positioned near the Ohio River 6am Friday morning. The front will be pushed south by increasing winds aloft, reaching the southern border of the FA by mid morning. Thunderstorms lingering near the river will move out by noon. This will leave decreasing clouds and dry weather that will persist through Friday night. In addition, cooler temperatures arriving on a northerly flow will be observed. First below normal highs of the month are forecast to range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast period begins with ridge providing drier air and slightly below normal temperatures with cooling trend. Some model differences begin to show up for first of the week. While certainly not sold on GFS solution feel the need to include small pop for this for Monday and Tuesday for now and wait for future fcst solutions to support anything more. Fairly benign pattern for rest of week will keep rain chances low and temps close to normal values. Forecast temperatures near guidance. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Chances for thunderstorms are gradually diminishing, but a few showers (or possibly a storm) will not be able to be ruled out during the overnight hours. Winds are somewhat variable right now in the wake of all the storms, but should settle into a northwesterly to northerly direction overnight. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible in the early morning hours. Not confident enough in this to include it specifically in the TAFs, but enough to mention it here. Chances for precipitation will end from north to south on Friday morning, leading to clearing skies. Some slightly gusty winds out of the north will occur during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Padgett AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
907 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 900 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 The threat of heavy rainfall has diminished across the area. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is still possible overnight as a cool front drops southward across the region. Chances of rain will end by daybreak with cooler and less humid conditions for Friday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 60s north to around 70 south. High temperatures on Friday will range from 75 to 80. The cooler and less humid conditions will persist into the weekend with temperatures moderating back into the lower to middle 80s by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Showers and storms have largely dissipated as pool of mixed layer CIN has encompassed much of western/central portions of the area. Best remaining instability appears to be across far northeast Indiana/south central Lower Michigan/northwest Ohio which largely bypassed stabilizing effects of showers/storms earlier today. Surface frontal boundary will drop southward across the region overnight, although bulk of remaining storms have shifted well south of the area in what has become effective frontal boundary stemming from residual outflows/cold pools. With some maintenance of higher low level theta-e air accompanying low level trough overnight and associated weak elevated instability, did keep slight chance thunder PoPs going following frontal progression, with the best chances generally east of I-69 overnight in closer proximity to a weak low level reflection. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 What remains of this morning`s convection continues its southward march towards Kentucky. The outflow from this convection has helped to initiate a few showers just south of the Fort Wayne terminal. So far storms have remained below severe levels, but have produced a few gusts near 50 mph across the southern portion of the CWFA due to an area of increased instability. 17Z LAPS analysis shows MLCAPE between 500 to 1500 J/kg for areas which have received precip today while remaining near 3K over the far eastern and western periphery of the CWFA. Deep layer shear has begun to increase into the 20kt range across the west and is expected to expand area wide later this evening. The HRRR had a fairly good handle on the convective evolution, but recent runs are too slow on the convection ahead of the cold front given current radar trends. This convection will likely persist into our area before seeing a gradual weakening given the earlier convection. Given the above mentioned convective parameters, concern remains for an isolated severe wind gusts through this evening while the heavy rain threat will persist until convection clears the CWFA. Speaking of the front, it has already moved into IL and should be entering the CWA after 8 PM EDT. It will then slowly progress south-southeastward to exit the southern portions of the CWFA prior to sunrise. This will linger POPs for western OH through 5 AM EDT. The remainder of Friday should be fairly pleasant with north- northeast winds around 15 mph. High temperatures should range from in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Pleasant weather is expected through the weekend and into early next week. The next cold front continues to be progged for Tuesday. Models are still going back and forth concerning associated convection. Have kept mention out of the forecast for this front. Another system approaches the area late in the forecast which would present a better chance for storms around mid-week. Will monitor for changes over the coming days. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Showers and storms earlier today worked over the environment keeping most thunderstorms across the forecast area at bay. A final boundary is expected to pass through the terminals by 12z Friday allowing for showers and a low chance of storms at both terminals ahead of that boundary. Expect a slow decay of shower chances especially after 6z. After the aforementioned boundary moves through, expect clouds to begin to break up and VFR conditions to continue through the rest of the period. Tomorrow, winds veer to northeasterly after starting out the period out of the west. Winds will also be breezy on Friday with increased diurnal mixing and a slightly invigorated low level jet behind the boundary. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...CM LONG TERM...CM AVIATION...Roller Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1140 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018 The storms have diminished across the area, and have freshened up the POPs to account for the expected overnight lull. The latest HRRR still indicates an uptick in convection north of the Mountain Parkway towards dawn, and will continue to mention slight chance POPs during that time frame. Otherwise, partly clouds skies and another balmy night with lows around 70 will be on tap. Also expect some patchy fog in the deeper valleys, especially those coincident with more significant rainfall that had occurred earlier. UPDATE Issued at 851 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018 Broken line of storms are currently aligned from Breathitt County down across Pulaski County. These storms have been pushing south along an outflow boundary. There remains a few beefier embedded cells containing some stronger wind gusts; however, as the boundary layer continues to cool and stabilize in the low levels, the threat of stronger wind gusts will be diminishing over the next hour or so. Will freshen up the POP trends through the overnight. Would expect a lull in activity given that multiple outflow boundaries have moved through most of the area and the surface cold front remains well to the north. Updates will be out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018 The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front and surface high pressure slowly pushing southward into the Upper Midwest, with weaker surface high pressure placed in the Eastern US. The convection has slowly started increasing this afternoon amid an unstable and moist environment. The best POPs so far this afternoon have generally been around Lake Cumberland and across the Bluegrass. These will be primarily mesoscale dominated processes through the afternoon and evening and therefore kept POPs in the slight to chance range through the period. The aforementioned cold front will slowly progress southward toward the region late tonight into Friday. This along with slight height falls will be the focus for convection for Friday and did generally keep the better POPs along and south of I-64. This is the area that stands to see the best potential for instability to build ahead of the lifting associated with the boundary. This boundary will slide southward and bring much drier airmass to round out the period, with PWATs dropping below 1 inch through the afternoon and evening hours Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018 High pressure will build south for the weekend allowing for dry and cooler conditions to be seen. The upper level ridge may break down a bit by Sunday afternoon allowing for a few showers or storms to develop in the Cumberland plateau into central Kentucky. The 12z GFS is looking much more active next week, at least with regards to afternoon convection. Thus, at least low end pops will be introduced into each period from Sunday through Thursday. A frontal boundary may drop in and stall over the region by mid week, allowing for better chances of organized convection. While temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday, they should generally remain around that level through next week. This will keep the heat from becoming an issue again next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018 A broken line of storms aligned from KJKL to KLOZ to KSME will drop south over the next hour and gradually weaken. Most of these cells to look move just around the TAF sites, so will be including an hour or two period of VCTS. Some outflow, with wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts will move through these locations. Otherwise, expect a lull in the activity through the rest of the night, with some fog likely forming in areas that saw more significant rainfall today. Have included general MVFR at KSYM, since this site is already reporting haze. Some dips into IFR are possible; however, some additional cloud cover overnight may thwart more dense fog. A cold front will approach the area on Friday, with renewed chances of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will remain light and variable outside of thunderstorms through dawn, with a shift to the north at around 5 kts at some point on Friday as the front moves through the area. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Overall the CAM guidance has been a bit slow to catch up to recent trends over the last few hours, but the HRRR seems to have now caught on that the KY convection looks to wain as it moves southward into TN. Therefore opted to lower pops around 10 percent or so across the board, however holding on a bit longer over the lower plateau as well as the southeast TN and southwest NC mtns where current convection resides. Otherwise, temperature trends looked pretty good therefore no sig changes on that front. Given the scattered nature of convection today/tonight and the abundance of moisture in the BL, did include patchy fog across much of the region for the overnight with little/no dense fog fcst at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 88 71 85 / 40 60 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 86 68 85 / 40 70 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 74 85 68 85 / 50 70 50 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 83 65 83 / 40 70 40 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ CDG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
431 PM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A generally seasonable weather pattern will continue to be in place with temperatures gradually warming to above normal, especially inland, over the weekend. Mid level clouds from Hurricane Fabio will pass over the region on Friday, but no precip is forecast at this time. A cooling trend is forecast to occur starting Tuesday as high pressure weakens over the area. && of 2:16 PM PDT Thursday...A building upper-level ridge is making its presence known this afternoon, eroding most of the stratus that blanketed the CWA this morning. Temperatures have also responded, warming up nicely, especially across interior parts of the district. Temperatures are already 5 to 10 degrees warmer, locally higher, than 24 hours ago for locations away from the coast. With a few more hours of daytime heating, it`s possible temps may get a few degrees warmer before all is said and done for the day. Daytime temperatures will continue to increase tomorrow, and into the weekend as the ridge of high pressure continues to build westward over the next couple of days. Did raise high temperatures by a couple of degrees for southern and eastern parts of the CWA through the weekend, but there are some questions on how warm temperatures will get, especially tomorrow given the mid and upper level moisture from Hurricane Fabio that will be in place over much of the state. As far as precipitation chances from Fabio in the Bay Area, still not convinced that precipitation will occur. However, it`s worth noting that the latest MTRWRF and HRRR forecast models do produce very light (a few hundredths of an inch) convective-type precipitation for the Greater San Francisco Bay Area/North Bay region Friday morning around or slightly before sunrise. With very little instability to work with, there`s even less confidence of lightning occuring, if precipitation does occur at all. This will continue to be monitored through the day and evening, and updated if necessary. The upper-level ridge will continue to build over the weekend, further increasing temperatures that will be especially felt inland through Monday. Anticipate temperatures to range from mid 60s along the coastline to mid 100s for some inland locations during this time period. Although warm and dry this weekend, do not anticipate any fire or heat products to be issued, at this time. Long range forecast models have the upper-level ridge weakening and shifting eastward towards the Northern Plains by Tuesday. This should generate a cooling trend through the middle part of next week. Will have to keep an eye on forecast trends with regards to monsoonal moisture that is being produced by long range models for the Sierras and Southern California by mid week next week. && .AVIATION...As of 04:31 PM PDT Thursday...VFR with high clouds beginning to stream over the area south of San Jose. Models are still suggesting drying at low levels with increasing high clouds throughout tomorrow. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected through the period with the exception of possible MVFR/IFR cigs at KMRY late tonight. Generally light winds through the period. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the period. Some low cloud development is possible into early tomorrow morning but not expecting cigs to go BKN at this time. Increasing high clouds forecast to stream overhead throughout tomorrow. Gusty westerly winds this afternoon and into this evening (20-23 kt) before winds subside overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through tonight. Some cigs possible late tonight for KMRY, but KSNS is expected to remain VFR through the period. Confidence remains low on cigs tonight as models still disagree on the development of low clouds around the Peninsula. && of 01:29 PM PDT Thursday...Light to moderate winds will prevail over the coastal waters tonight. Building high pressure will increase northerly winds on Friday and into the weekend. A long period southerly swell generated by Hurricane Fabio will continue to impact the Central Coast through Saturday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BAM AVIATION: AS MARINE: MM Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
133 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .DISCUSSION...General high level moisture noted over our area this afternoon with the slightest chance for an evening sprinkle in the Bear Lake area; otherwise dry conditions will persist for the foreseeable further. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be quite similar to today. Over the weekend, some increased moisture is expected to fill into our area. Forecast models once more differ in their solutions regarding QPF amounts. GFS is more favorable in their QPF amounts where the ECMWF is more dry. We are forecasting a slight chance to chance of rain at this time Monday into Tuesday primarily along and east of the interstate corridor. There is not much relief in sight when it comes to temperatures with the 80 to 90 degree weather continuing well into next week. NP/DMH && .AVIATION...Some mid-to high level moisture will move through during the overnight hours, so no -TSRA activity expected since it will arrive late tonight. It will linger in most spots until 06/18Z, at some locations developing a CIG; however, no operational impact expected. HRRR indicated some gusty wind for the late afternoon, so did increase wind in the Snake River plain airdromes. No -TSRA expected Fri afternoon either. Messick && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will allow some cloudiness to slide through this evening and late tonight, but not expected to generate any thunderstorms, except perhaps near the ID-WY border. The same thing occurs Fri afternoon and evening, but again it barely qualifies as slight chance. The Haines Index also stay in moderate and high categories. A dry and strong southwest flow develops for Sat due to a trough coming in. This will cool temperatures and reduce the Haines Index, and it just may keep humidity high enough to prevent a critical weather pattern from developing. On Sun, afternoon temperatures will warm again as airflow becomes more southerly due to the approaching trough. The trough crosses through eastern Idaho on Mon/Tue, when the next significant risk of thunderstorms occurs on both afternoons, although not everywhere. The main focus for convection with this feature will be the eastern zones, including the Idaho Falls BLM district and all of the CTNF. The southern Sawtooth NF is also at risk. By Wed, westerly flow will develop and keep the moisture and unstable air in central and southern Utah. Temperatures/humidity won`t change much after Tue, but look for breezier conditions to develop Thu again. Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 ...Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon and this evening which will bring a risk for flash flooding on newer burn scars if a strong thunderstorm moves over these areas... The rain forecast is a mixed blessing for southeast Colorado. While most areas will appreciate any precipitation that is received, it is hard to know exactly how the burn scars on the current active fires will react to even a brief period of intense rainfall. Past experience with burn scars shows that with intense bursts of rainfall, we can expect flash flooding and debris flows on the most severely burned areas. Overall, the increased cloud cover, higher relative humidities, lower temperatures, and light rain will aid firefighting and fire suppression activities. Latest runs of the HRRR are pinpointing the Rampart Range for thunderstorm development late this afternoon and early this evening with storms then spreading eastward across El Paso County. Have added El Paso County to the Flash Flood Watch based on the model guidance continuing to hit this area late this afternoon into the evening hours. Additionally, some areas received decent rainfall out of the spotty thunderstorms last night. Scattered convection also possible across the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains as well as portions of Pueblo, Fremont, and Custer Counties. HRRR continues the precipitation through the early morning hours on the far southeast plains. On Friday, the upper level high builds over the four corners region with a weak embedded disturbances moving through the flow. Expect scattered thunderstorms to form over the mountains. Best chances for precipitation appear to be over the southwest and far southeast portions of the state, but even an isolated thunderstorm could pose a threat to one of the burn scars. Temperatures running near normal Friday, but expect dewpoints in the low to mid 50s on the southeast surface winds. It may feel a bit more humid to folks in southeast Colorado. Stark .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Friday night-Sunday...No big changes in ongoing forecast as the upper high centered over western Colorado Friday night is progged to slowly lift north and east through the weekend. This will allow for weak north to northeast flow aloft to develop across the region with the best atmospheric moisture expected to be shunted west of the area through the period. With some moisture in place, along with the more north to northeast flow aloft, the best chances of afternoon and evening storms will be over the higher terrain, especially along and west of the ContDvd, through the weekend. With the weak steering flow aloft, storms will still have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding, however, the coverage of these storms will be less widespread. Temperatures are also progged to warm back to above seasonal levels through the period, with highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s expected across the lower elevations and mainly in the 60s to lower 80s across the higher terrain. Monday-Thursday...A broad elongated upper high continues to be progged across the Central CONUS through the middle of next week, with flow aloft across Colorado expected to become more east to southeast, though remaining weak through the period. This should allow for another slow increase in available moisture, as subtropical moisture advects into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Pattern supports slowing increasing chances of diurnal convection through the period, with best chances remaining over and near the higher terrain. With the weak flow aloft, storms will be slow moving, leading to possible localized heavy rain, and flash flooding, especially if the storms form or move over the new/active burn scars. Temperatures look to remain at or above seasonal norms through the period, with daytime highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations and mainly 60s to lower 80s across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Thunderstorms are possible at all three TAF sites into the evening hours. Surface winds will remain from the east or southeast with increasing cloud cover as convection continues to develop. Later tonight, the thunderstorms will move over the far southeast plains of Colorado with scattered mid clouds lingering over the TAF locations. Scattered thunderstorms will develop over southern Colorado again on Friday...mainly after 18Z. Stark && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>081- 083>085-087. && $$ SHORT TERM...STARK LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...STARK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1020 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push into the mid-Atlantic Friday morning and move across North Carolina Friday night before settling across South Carolina and Georgia on Saturday. An unseasonably cool high pressure system will extend into the Carolinas through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 PM Thursday... Convection has dissipated this evening with nocturnal stabilization taking hold. Expect quite weather overnight with lack of really any flow across the area, with perhaps some stratus and/or patchy fog (especially for locations that received precip this evening). Otherwise, expect another warm or muggy night, with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Thursday... The cold front associated with the aforementioned short wave will provide the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms as it moves SE and across our area Friday afternoon and evening. Look for showers and storms to move into our NW and Triad zones during the early to mid-afternoon, then progress sewd through the rest of our area during the late afternoon and evening hours. While pre-frontal daytime heating should result in moderate instability, the deep layer wind field, and bulk shear are very weak. Thus, look for deep convection which should produce frequent lightning, heavy downpours and modest winds gusts, but overall should remain mostly sub-severe. The showers and storms are expected to push south of our area by late-evening, however, patchy light showers may persist across our area behind the front during the late-evening and overnight hours, thus will keep good chance PoPs going Friday night. With similar airmass as today ahead of the front, look for temps to climb into the mid-upr 80s just before the storms and front move through. Then behind the front, temps will cool Friday night into the upper 60s NW, to lower 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 PM Thursday... The upper-air pattern at the start of the long term period features a trough from the New England coast south to GA with a strong ridge centered across the eastern Rockies early Saturday. With time, the trough axis will slip south with time and become east to west oriented by the beginning of the work week as the ridge extends eastward into the mid-Atlantic. The ridge axis retreats a bit across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday allowing a northwest flow aloft to develop and pushing a weak short wave trough across the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday with another trough approaching late Thursday. As the front pushes south, the threat of showers/storms on Saturday will be focused across the south and southeastern part of the CWA. Only a very limited chance of showers is expected across the far south on Sunday with cool but dry weather elsewhere. High pressure will result in dry weather on Monday and Tuesday. A limited threat of showers and storms is expected on Wednesday and Thursday with an increasingly moist northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be much below normal on Saturday with low-level thickness values near 1390m near the VA border, H8 temps below 15C, and a fair amount of cloudiness. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much more sunshine on Sunday will lead to a nice weather day in most locations with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs moderate into the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. The warming trend continues for Wednesday and Thursday. Opted to stay below WPC guidance which includes a high of 100 for Thursday and stick with highs in the lower to mid 90s for now. -Blaes && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 745 PM Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in coverage this evening as daytime heating is slowly lost. In any stronger showers and thunderstorms some gusty winds along with vsby restrictions (possibly down to VLIFR) will be the primary aviation impacts. High res models show the showers and thunderstorms significantly decreasing in coverage over the next couple of hours. Friday morning models are indicating some potential stratus/ fog restrictions across the southeast (towards KFAY/ KRWI). The HRRR and NAM don`t look as impressive as before, and with convection remaining mostly scattered in coverage think this makes sense. For now have left IFR restrictions in. Any restrictions that do occur Friday morning will be transient in nature and will quickly lift. Friday afternoon into evening a surface cold front will cross the TAF sites bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Surface convergence along the front appears to weaken as the front heads south and east. Therefore have kept the prevailing limited to KINT, KGSO, and KRDU. After 00Z Saturday: IFR/ MVFR restrictions in ceilings will be possible behind the front Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...HAINES
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1119 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front arrives in the northwest early Friday with increased chances for rainfall through the day. Noticeably cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend as high pressure builds in. Warmer and more humid conditions return by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1115 PM EDT Thursday... Hi Res and HRRR guidance showing persistent convergence in southeast West Virginia overnight, otherwise isolated showers and thunderstorms for southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. Little change needed to forecast for minimum temperatures overnight. Front should be on our doorstep around 12Z/8AM with chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning to increase and continuing to likely POPs for most areas during the day. The front is fairly progressive and will be about to exit the southeast CWA around 00z Saturday/8PM Friday but with lingering showers possible especially in the southern sections. QPF is generally in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range most of which will fall in a roughly 12-hour period between 12z/8AM Fri and 00z Sat/8PM Fri. Expect considerable variation as is typical in convective regimes, with localized amounts up to 1 to 2 inches. WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, just issued, highlights a slight risk in the far NW CWA, mainly Greenbrier County for rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance even before 12z. The Day 2 outlook was pointed toward mainly the southern sections of the CWA where the front could be slow- moving enough to produce some higher rainfall amounts and some local runoff issues. Portions of the CWA have become very dry in recent weeks and could benefit greatly from a decent slug of moisture, especially in part of the New River valley and parts of southside VA. Temperatures will be held down somewhat tomorrow by the increased cloud cover especially in the northwest where clouds arrive earlier. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM EDT Thursday... Friday night a cold front will head south of the region. Good coverage of showers and storms associated with it will still be across at least the southern half of the region around sunset. By daybreak Saturday, isolated to scattered showers will be across the far southern sections of the region. These showers will linger during the course of the day Saturday across the far southwest part of the area as winds become easterly and pool moisture along the northern mountains of North Carolina. High pressure will start to make its way into the area on Saturday with lower dew points and temperatures. By Saturday night, low temperatures across the mountains will range from the low to mid 50s with upper 50s to readings around 60 across the Piedmont. High temperatures on Sunday will average the mid to upper 70s across the mountains with some the higher peaks and ridges only reaching the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Across the Piedmont, highs around 80 to the lower 80s are forecast. Cloud cover will decrease from north to south during the course of the day Saturday, with sunny skies for the entire area on Sunday. Winds will be steady from the north to northeast around 10 to 15 mph late Friday night into Saturday behind the front. Saturday night into Sunday they will become weaker and trend more easterly. Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is high. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday... Cooler and drier high pressure will settle over the region this weekend. Look for a trend of decreasing cloud cover with temperatures averaging five to ten degrees below normal. The dry weather is expected to continue into early next week. Monday into Tuesday, the center of the high retrogrades west as a trough starts to develop across New England. Precipitation chances will start to increase, but still be on the low side. Temperatures will rebound to values closer to normal for this time of year. By Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will continue their trend upward with readings slightly above normal. Guidance differs as to the degree which a shortwave trough approaches the area by Thursday. Will continue with a status quo forecast that keeps precipitation chances on the low side with the shortwave trough north of the area. Temperatures will continue to creep higher through Thursday with values slightly above normal. Forecast confidence on the above portion of the forecast is low to moderate with precipitation chances being the biggest question mark. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Thursday... Area radars indicated isolated thunderstorms over southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina, and southeast West Virginia. These thunderstorms will diminish throughout the evening. Above average confidence that patchy fog will develop in locations that had rain this afternoon. Expect MVFR fog across much of the New River and Greenbrier River Valleys late tonight, including at KLWB and KBCB. A cold front will move into the region on Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms along with MVFR ceilings and visibilities. The wind will be to the west to southwest ahead of the front and will turn to the northwest then north behind the front. Timing of the front in the models has been consistent for the past few runs. Have narrowed down the time of the worst conditions and highest probability of precipitation in the TAFs but this could easily occur for more than just a couple of hours. It is possible that the storms will be ongoing and the wind shift will just be approaching KDAN at the end of the TAF forecast period. Confidence is above average on the ocarinas of thunderstorms and the timing of the front on Friday. Extended Aviation... Over the weekend and into Tuesday, high pressure and drier air work its way into the area. VFR conditions will prevail for most of the region, most of this time. Late night/early morning will be a daily issue. Confidence in the extended forecast is above average. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 750 PM EDT Thursday... The NOAA weather radio transmitter in Hinton, West Virginia, WXM72 broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz, remains off the air. It will remain offline until sometime next week. Parts are on order to repair the transmitter, and are expected early next week. Therefore, the system may again be operation on/by July 11th. We apologize for any inconvenience. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JR NEAR TERM...AMS/PC SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/PC EQUIPMENT...AMS/WERT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 Cumulus development has been a little more noticeable this afternoon and short term guidance like the HRRR and NAMNest show at least a small chance for a couple isolated showers or storms to pop up across the area over the next few hours...especially across southern Missouri south of I-44. Any convection would dissipate by sunset with a mostly quiet evening. A cold front which is located across northern Kansas and Missouri will slide southward overnight and move through the area Friday morning. Due to timing of the passage of the front, it doesn`t appear good for our rain chances. We will mention a slight chance for a couple showers or isolated storm along or ahead of the front early on Friday. Otherwise most areas will continue to remain dry. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 The good news is that behind the passage of the cold front on Friday, much nicer weather is on the way for the weekend with a drop in dewpoints and humidity along with slightly cooler airmass. Guidance indicates highs in the middle to upper 80s with over night lows in the 60s with upper 50s likely by Sunday morning east of Highway 65. It will definitely feel better and give us a little break from the excessive heat and humidity. The weather will be perfect for anything outdoors. Dewpoints this weekend will fall into the lower to middle 50s. The upper level ridge repositions over the Rockies into the Northern High Plains region early next week. Light southerly winds will return by Sunday evening and Monday with a return of humidity. Small chances for isolated afternoon pop up showers and storms will also return early next week with the return of low level moisture. We will be on the bottom or southeast side of the mid level ridge of high pressure which means our weather pattern will travel from east to west much of next week. Temperatures will also be back into the lower 90s with heat index values closer to 100 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018 THe regions weather will remain VFR this evening and through the overnight hours. The only thing that may impact the regions terminals would be a stray shower or storm. THe impacts should be limited and will diminish shortly after sun set. Additional showers and storms will again be possible to the area Friday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Hatch