Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/06/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
920 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Cancelled the Flash Flood warning for the northern mountains as most
of the activity has propagated to the west/southwest. Not a lot of
confidence in the RAP13/HRRR for the rest of the night in regards to
areal coverage of precipitation, although they tend to taper it off
but the HRRR breaks out some minor precipitation over the ne after
midnight. Updated ZFP already transmitted.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...556 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening across
northeast and north central NM, while isolated activity will
continue across central NM south of I-40. Brief MVFR visibility is
likely in stronger thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Showers and
thunderstorms will diminish after midnight. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop across all of northern NM Friday afternoon
with brief MVFR visibility in stronger thunderstorms. Winds Friday
will generally be below 12 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots in the
afternoon.
28
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of wetting showers and thunderstorms are expected for
the next 7 days, since the subtropical ridge of high pressure
finally shifted north of New Mexico. As is typical with the monsoon,
western and north central areas will generally be favored for the
best coverage of showers and thunderstorms, where the mountains
should generally receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain over the next
week. Coverage of storms should be less over central areas, and even
less across the east in general. However, an easterly wave passing
south of New Mexico should produce better coverage of storms over
central and eastern areas late Sunday and Sunday night. Another
uptick in the coverage of storms will be possible Wednesday and
Wednesday night, and perhaps into Thursday, as a disturbance embedded
in the periphery of the ridge crosses New Mexico from the northeast.
With all the moisture and cloud cover in place high temperatures
will generally vary from a few to several degrees below normal each
afternoon, while morning low temperatures vary from a few to around 5
degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
While the western and northern mountains have a good chance of 1 to 2
inches of rain over the next week, precipitation amounts across
central areas should vary from 0.25 to 1 inch, with up to a half inch
possible across the eastern plains. Of course, locally heavier
amounts will be possible. There will also be a risk of flash flooding
below burn scars mainly during the afternoons and evenings.
The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement on the position of the
subtropical ridge axis until late next week when they differ some on
the strength and timing of another easterly wave that will approach
NM from the east.
44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoon moisture is now in place across New Mexico with showers and
storms already producing locally heavy rainfall today. Steering flow
will force storms off to the west today and Friday then southwest on
Saturday. The threat for burn scar flash flooding will continue over
the weekend for the northern and western high terrain. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly below normal for much of the state with
this pattern along with very good to excellent humidity recoveries
every night. A slight downtick in storm coverage is expected Sunday
and Monday with a focus more over the western half of the state. An
even more significant surge of moisture is possible by the middle of
next week. Each additional round of locally heavy rainfall over the
state will exacerbate the flash flood threat and significantly lower
the wildland fire risk through next week.
Guyer
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1201 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will come to an end with the passage of a
cold front later tonight and early Friday. Cooler and less
humid air will be moving in behind the cold front and will last
all weekend, followed by gradually moderating temperatures early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
We trimmed the flood watch back to just SE zones to account for
the HREF showing some measure of organization to the frontal
precip late tonight and Friday morning. Otherwise convection has
been pretty underachieving as the high CAPE atmosphere failed to
provide the lapse rates necessary to keep the activity going.
The hourly HRRR has been of little help in the weakly forced
atmosphere over-forecasting the extent of the convection pretty
consistently over the last couple of days.
Temps will be very muggy for one last night over most of the
CWA except for the far NW. Mins will vary from the Low 60s over
the NW Mtns to the mid 70s throughout the Susq Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The cold front will move steadily through the SE half of the
state during the morning and early afternoon hours. POPs are
maxed-out around 90 percent across the Central Ridge and Valley
region and Lower Susq Valley in the morning. POPs will drop-off
fast by the mid afternoon over the Lower Susq Valley, and
staying at near zero percent all day over the far NW part of the
CWA under refreshing NW flow and cool/dry advection at all
levels.
Temps will be refreshingly cooler with only L70s as highs in
the higher elevs and NWrn counties and upper 70s to L80s across
the Central and SE Valleys. These numbers will be a couple
degrees below normals. Dewpoints will drop into the 50s by noon
in the NW, and over most of the area by sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Cooler and refreshingly less humid air will arrive this
weekend and may last into Monday.
The cold front should be to our south at 18Z Fri. This will
bring relief from the relentlessly hot/humid weather as cooler
and less humid air sweeps southeast from Canada.
Showers may drop in from the Great Lakes in the mid-week
period, but Sat-Mon looks dry with seasonable temps, and welcome
surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s.
PWAT values plummet to an impressive minus 2-3 sigma Saturday
morning, then stay in the minus 1-2 sigma range into early
Monday as an area of high pressure (1024-1028 mb on the GEFS)
drifts SE from the upper midwest and becomes located over the
state Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Precipitation coverage across Central Pennsylvania pretty
minimal at 04z. Only a few scattered showers noted in the
vicinity of KFIG and KUNV.
Actual cold frontal passage is expected to reinvigorate
SHRA/TSRA late overnight into Friday morning. Short range models
seem to have been overdoing convection all evening, but continue
to regenerate a broken line of storms moving from NW to SE
overnight. By Friday morning, focus of convection and rain
should be across the south and southeast, and is expected to
continue to push to the south and east. Some lingering fog and
lower clouds are possible central and northern areas Friday
morning with MVFR to possible IFR restrictions.
Significant push of drier air will move into the area from north
to south Friday, with VFR conditions building south through the
area. These VFR conditions will last at least through Monday.
.Outlook...
Fri...SHRA/TSRA impacts SE in the morning, along with some low
cloud and fog restrictions central and northern areas. Becoming
VFR.
Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected.
Tue...Sct SHRA/TSRA possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-056-057-
059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Tyburski
AVIATION...Jung
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
840 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Little to no precipitation has fallen this evening, except in
northern Carbon County where a Severe Thunderstorm Warning had
been issued with torrential rainfall indicated by radar.
Otherwise, a few areas of light rainfall, but nothing substantial
really ever generated. Therefore, have cancelled the Flash Flood
Watch over the Snowy Range. Flash flooding is no longer a threat
this evening.
Otherwise, strong sustained winds out of the south will be the
story of the evening as a 800 mb jet with 30 kt flow has already
set up over region. Winds will continue in this fashion through
the night and into tomorrow, though the focus of these winds will
shift east to areas along and east of the Laramie Range.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening - Overnight)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the
Snowy Range and the Badger Creek Fire burn scar. Thunderstorms are
beginning to increase in both coverage/intensity across the higher
terrain of southeast Wyoming, with a few cells already observed in
the vicinity of the burn scar. Precipitable water values remain at
or above the 90th percentile for July. This suggests the potential
for locally heavy rainfall with developing storms. H5 flow appears
very weak (only around 10 knots), so would anticipate slow motions
to persist. This would only enhance the potential for flash floods
and dangerous/life threatening debris flows during the next 2 to 4
hours, so we will need to monitor this situation closely as HRRR &
other high-resolution models continue to suggest potentially heavy
precipitation cores near the burn scar area.
Convection should eventually spread east across the high plains of
southeast WY and the western NE Panhandle, although better chances
should exist further south along the I80 corridor. Overall forcing
is quite weak, but a weak short-wave traversing the flow along the
edge of the central/southern US ridge should be sufficient. If any
additional storms develop, environmental conditions will favor the
risk for marginally severe hail/strong winds w/ SBCAPES from 2000-
4000 J/kg. However, shear is virtually non-existent so would think
any stronger storms will be pulse-type. Convection may become some
what more organized this evening as a 30+ knot jet develops across
the high plains at 800 hpa, perhaps as some sort of linear complex
tracking east across the region. Thunderstorm activity should move
east of the area by late this evening.
A period of gusty winds may develop over the high plains overnight
in association with the aforementioned low-level jet. GFS sounding
data suggests a minimal inversion along with 20 to 30 kt flow just
off the surface, while the NAM suggests a more substantial surface
based inversion. Regardless, w/ a decent surface pressure gradient
we would anticipate stronger winds over higher terrain areas, such
as the Pine Ridge extending from east central WY into the northern
NE Panhandle. If the GFS comes to fruition, windy conditions would
be considerably more widespread with potential for 20 kt sustained
winds at KCYS as well.
.LONG TERM...(Friday - Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Main highlight for the longer term remains on the above average
temperatures and mostly dry conditions outside of very isolated
peak-heating showers/storms over the higher terrain. Maximum
temperatures will be about 5-10F degrees above normal during this
stretch. While fire weather danger will remain below critical
thresholds, increasing concern remains on fuels drying further
after the wet spring and early summer.
A 598DM H5 ridge will begin to insert its suppressing influence
over the region Friday while SW H7 flow occurs and advects warmer
air of 15-18C over the region. Isolated to scattered showers will
again be possible over the higher terrain Friday afternoon but
potency will be reduced given the mid-level height rises. Friday
wil be the start of the warm-up with Saturday likely the warmest
day of the period with low to upper 90s across the High Plains and
even a few spot 100s will be possible as H7 temperatures rise
into the 18-20C range. Increased maximum surface temperatures 1-2F
over model guidance. Will need to watch for some H5 ridge
breakdown subtleties Sunday with some differences appearing the
ECMWF vs. the GFS but overall pattern will be hot and dry with
only isolated shower activity into early next week. Further H5
ridge break down looks more likely next Tuesday/Wednesday as an
inverted trough possibly develops on the southern side of the
ridge in CO and lead to some additional scattered shower activity
for SE WY with NE remaining more dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Friday afternoon)
Probability of thunderstorms is lower compared to earlier this
afternoon as convection struggles to develop along and east of
Interstate 25 early this evening. May completely remove VCTS over
the next hour or two if activity does not pick up. Otherwise,
upslope flow will continue across the region with gusty south to
southeast winds at times, especially once the low level jet
increases across the western NE terminals. Overall, VFR conditions
are expected through tonight and into early Friday, but there is a
slight chance at some low CIGS and IFR conditions around KSNY and
KAIA between 09z to 15z Friday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Slow-moving thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall could impact
the Badger Creek burn scar area this afternoon. Be alert for rapidly
changing weather conditions. Flash flooding is possible, along with
dangerous and life threatening debris flows.
Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
72 hours. An area of high pressure over the southern plains will
strengthen keeping winds mostly light and from the southeast.
Southerly winds will bring increasing moisture in from the plains
along a weak remnant cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will help
keep relative humidity high along the Laramie range. This will keep
fire weather conditions below critical for the next few days.
A drying and warming trend is expected for this weekend but winds
should remain sub critical.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AB
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...JSA
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH/AL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...Aviation and Short-Term Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Based on radar trends, I significantly reduced PoPs for the rest
of the overnight hours. Also reduced PoPs for tomorrow to more
closely match hi-res model guidance. I expect that most of the
area will remain dry. The most likely timeframe for
showers/isolated thunderstorm is tomorrow morning.
With light easterly winds tonight, I also introduced patchy fog to
the grids in western portions of the area. This coninsides with
where the HRRR and RAP show the lowest visibilities.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Satellite and observations show mostly cirrus around the forecast
area this afternoon, but there are a few cumulus developing below
the cirrus deck. Showers have moved out of the forecast area for the
afternoon, but there are some more robust cumulus and a few showers
and thunderstorms just to the south of the forecast area.
The main concern for this forecast has been thunderstorm chances.
Even with an upper level ridge across the area, there are a few
mainly weak waves that move around the ridge. This pattern is
typical for summertime. That brings the challenges of thunderstorm
development.
Most of the forecast models keep the forecast dry through tonight
and into Friday. There are a few that keep some precipitation across
the far south, or just to the south of the forecast area and that is
where the best wave appears to be. The problem is that there could
be a few isolated thunderstorms that develop in the warm air.
Anything that develops could produce fairly heavy rainfall and
without much for steering flow, will be slow to move. Most everyone
will remain dry, but if under a thunderstorm, it could be fairly
wet.
For tonight and Friday have probably over done the area with a
chance for precipitation, but have kept PoPs fairly low through the
period. The best chance will probably be late tonight into Friday
morning.
Even without rain, most of the area will have some clouds during the
day Friday which will help to keep temperatures on the cooler
side.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
The main feature for the period will be an upper level ridge that
will affect the area through the entire week. There are a few mainly
weak waves that move across the ridge and bring some chances for
thunderstorms.
The first are a few lingering showers and thunderstorms for Friday
evening, but it is a small area and not expected to last very long.
For the period Saturday through Wednesday the ridge will be fairly
strong. For now the forecast is dry, but with a few little waves,
there could be an isolated thunderstorm here and there. Temperatures
will be a little warmer with highs mostly in the lower to mid 90s.
Wednesday night into Thursday there will be a little stronger wave
and there is a better chance for thunderstorms. There will be a cold
front that moves through the forecast area which also helps to give
a better chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures will be a little
cooler than the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Light easterly winds are expected overnight.
Models continue to indicate MVFR cloud ceilings developing during
the early morning and lasting through mid-morning before gradually
lifting.
There is also an outside chance for some reduced visibility from
fog, though it appears that the best potential will be west of the
terminals.
Winds gradually become southeasterly tomorrow afternoon and should
remain around 8-10kts.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Mangels
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
608 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
The previous forecast had measurable precipitation and
thunderstorms likely across all of far eastern Colorado and into
far western Kansas through the late afternoon and early evening.
Have updated the forecast mainly for through this evening as
there is a distinct lack of convective activity producing any
rainfall along and west of a surface boundary pushing westward
across the western third of the forecast area. The only activity
along the boundary is just south of the forecast area in southwest
Kansas, and that isn`t even propagating into the GLD forecast
area. Therefore, have significantly reduced the probability and
coverage of storms through much of this evening with a small
increase during the overnight periods to blend in with the
neighboring forecast areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and locally
heavy rainfall. Satellite continue to show an amplified pattern from
the Pacific into central North America.
Tonight...Mesoscale influences from this mornings convective complex
has caused model output to play catchup. From trends and performance
since yesterday, the Arw and Hrrr looks to be the closest to
depicting the current situation. Air mass remains very moist with
strong low level upslope in place.
Small scale shortwaves are rotating around mid level ridge that is
located over and north of the area which makes timing problematic.
There looks to be a weak right rear quadrant of the upper jet across
the northwest half of the area into the night. In general expect
coverage to increase from the south and west as last night. Steering
flow is not very strong with 1 to 1.5 inch PW values. So do
expect locally rainfall. As it stands now, it looks like the axis
of heaviest rainfall will stay to the west of our area. However
there still looks to be locally heavy rainfall. Fortunately where
the heavy rainfall is expected tonight is different from this
mornings rainfall.
Friday/Friday night...As is typical with a weakly forced
environment due to a number weak shortwave troughs rotating
through and little to no flow aloft, there looks to be not only
lingering thunderstorms in the morning but gradually increasing
storm coverage and intensity through the day. Locally heavy
rainfall will continue to be the biggest threat due to the weak
flow and continued above normal Precipitable Water values.
Forecast blend has a low chance of precipitation during the night.
However I can see where this could be a little higher. Due to the
moist air mass and the amount of cloud cover and ongoing
precipitation, lowered maxes from what the forecast blend had.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Upper-level ridging will dominate the synoptic pattern over the
Tri-State region and much of the Intermountain West during this
weekend. This will lead to relatively weak north-northeasterly
upper-level flow, shifting towards more easterly as the center of
the upper-level ridge moves towards the Northern Great Plains.
This will provide weak synoptic forcing for any thunderstorms
through the weekend. A weak surface low in southeast Colorado and
a stronger surface high in the Midwest will combine to bring
south-southeasterly low-level flow over the Central High Plains.
Warm, moist air carried by these surface southerlies will continue
to provide enough instability for isolated showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday, mostly in the afternoons. This warm,
moist air will also cause the area to slowly warm up with highs
in the lower 90s Saturday and mid 90s Sunday.
Continuing through Thursday, an upper level high remains in place over
the central CONUS. Tuesday, a shortwave trough moves over the
extreme Northern Plains. This will not give us the lift for any
type of organized convection. This will however provide enough
instability for diurnal convection each afternoon, especially with
the warm, moist southerly flow. The highest chances for
convection will be Wednesday and THursday as leeside surface lows
form leading to upslope flow.
In previous runs, the ECMWF was more progressive than the GFS but
that has since changed. There are now temporal differences between
the two models that could affect the surface flow gradient thus
the wind speeds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Have kept GLD and MCK VFR through the 00Z TAF period with a lower
VFR ceiling expected from the early morning hours through about
mid day on Friday. The thunderstorm activity extending from this
evening through the overnight hours into Friday morning should be
isolated in nature near the TAF sites and/or remain south of MCK
and GLD. Have therefore kept out any mention of TS at this time.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PATTON/SANDERSON/NEWMAN
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1151 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
For those looking for cooler less humid conditions the change comes
tonight. A cold front will surge south through the area this evening
and bring in less muggy air from the north. A very distinct change
in air mass will be noted by all tomorrow. 90s for highs will be
replaced by 70s to near 80 on Friday. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm may occur along the frontal passage this evening,
although most areas will remain dry. High pressure will remain
firmly in control of the area weather over the weekend, with dry
conditions, plenty of sunshine, less humid air and highs in the 80s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
I have updated the forecast to have no mention of
showers/thunderstorms for this evening. This is based on radar
trends as the dry air continues to move into the CWA even as I
write this. It`s clear to this forecaster the risk of convection
in our CWA is just about done. So, I expunded the risk of showers
and thunderstorms from our grids for this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Concerns in the short term are minimal and occur this evening. The
cold front at 300pm is still poised upstream stretching from the
Straits of Mackinac into Central Wisconsin. It is behind this line
where the dew points drop off into the 50s. There are even some 40s
dew points across the U.P. GOES-16 shows our forecast area almost
devoid of cumulus development which is directly related to a
stabilizing, divergent wind off of Lake Michigan which we often see
in these regimes. So, the question is do we see any shower/
thunderstorm development along the cold front this afternoon and
evening. Multiple runs of the HRRR today have continued to show
mainly dry conditions with this frontal passage. Some shower and
storms form off to our east and south, but we stay mainly dry. We
have 20-40 pops in the forecast, highest to the south and east,
before dwindling to zero by around midnight. Again, most locations
will remain dry.
Dry and mainly clear weather is expected from Friday through
Saturday night with high pressure anchored in the Southern Great
Lakes. Much more pleasant weather for outdoor activities with cooler
temperatures and much less humidity (dew points in the 50s).
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
During the long term period we will be situated between the main
belt of the westerlies which will be just off to our north and a
broad upper ridge that will cover much of the CONUS. What this means
for us is warmer weather and limited chances for rainfall. 500mb
heights will be near 590dm which is a typical mid summer value.
Heights at these numbers should result in high temperatures well
into the 80s each day. 850mb temps in the middle to upper teens C
also confirm highs in the 80s if not pushing near 90 at times.
As for the threat of any precipitation, the prospects look low. The
first chances comes Monday afternoon and evening as a weakening cold
front drops in out of the north. The next chance comes Wednesday
night into Thursday with another cold front. In both cases the mid
level support in terms of a shortwave is well off to our north. We
have opted to go dry with the first front on Monday and carry small
pops (20-30 pct) on Thursday with the second front. Confidence out
on day 7 is not high as this time, but the shortwave associated with
that front in at least the GFS makes better inroads into our area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast period (and into the weekend) much drier air filters into
the region. Brief gusty northerly winds of 15-20 kts as well as
marginal low-level wind shear are possible right at the start of the
TAF period at LAN/BTL/AZO in association with a frontal passage but
the period of winds and shear is expected to be too short to include
in the TAF package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Have opted to hold off on any Small Craft or Beach Hazards headlines
with this issuance. As stated in the prior marine discussion we
become a bit concerned with advancing high pressure systems out of
the northwest. These scenarios increase funneling down our
shoreline, which usually increases wind into the 15-25 knot range
producing waves of 3 to 5 feet. The NAMnest is indicating a 2-4
hour window Friday afternoon where 18-22 knot winds are possible
from Grand Haven south. We feel confident that waves will build
into the 2-4 foot range Friday afternoon and evening south of
Holland especially. If winds come in a bit stronger we may need
headlines.
Prior to the wind tomorrow afternoon, we are expecting an increase
in northeast winds tonight behind the cold front especially between
200am and 800am. This increase in wind may bump up waves heights as
well at daybreak, likely into the 1-3 foot range near the shore.
Once we get beyond sunset Friday evening the conditions look quiet
over the weekend with a sprawling high pressure system in place over
the Great Lakes. Winds over the weekend will generally be below
10-15 knots with waves less than 2 feet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
River levels are a little above normal for this time of year, but
steady or slowly falling. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the area into the evening. Rainfall will be
highly variable. Under two tenths of an inch of rain is expected
most places through the week, but any thunderstorms could produce
locally heavy rain with highly localized flooding.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...Duke
SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Borchardt
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
946 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front will continue
this evening before tapering off overnight. Dry weather and
cooler temperatures will accompany high pressure arriving
Friday, with tranquil weather conditions persisting through the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Virtually the entire ILN CWA has been worked over by convection
today, leaving generally stable boundary layer conditions
behind, as evidenced by the decay of even the few areas of
showers still being observed. Despite this, the 00Z KILN
sounding is not completely devoid of instability aloft, above a
warm layer near 800mb-850mb. There is very little forcing to
speak of, suggesting that most locations tonight will remain
dry. However, isolated pop-up showers (and maybe storms) might
still remain possible in this air mass ahead of the approaching
cold front. The HRRR has suggested that storms currently over
north-central Ohio might eventually propagate into the eastern
sections of the ILN CWA overnight, warranting a slightly higher
chance of precipitation there.
Not that much of a drying trend has started yet, but northerly
flow is expected to kick in for the northern / northwestern CWA
late in the overnight period, which might actually be enough to
allow dewpoints and temperatures to drop to near or just below
70 degrees.
Previous discussion >
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed as expected
in a strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment in place
ahead of a cold front near Chicago. These thunderstorms had
initially formed along a prefrontal trough that is now hard to
define near our southern border. Weak winds aloft are limiting
storm strength, with sub severe wind gusts and hail observed so
far. Heavy rain and possibly isolated flooding are still a
concern in an airmass containing up to 2 inches PWAT.
With the storms being driven mainly by instability, expect
intensity and coverage to dwindle rapidly by sunset, and this
scenario is supported by latest HRR. Still kept high chance
pops through the overnight hours since the cold front will be
crossing the area, providing sufficient convergence and lift for
weak convection.
One more night of above normal lows around 70 are forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be positioned near the Ohio River 6am Friday
morning. The front will be pushed south by increasing winds
aloft, reaching the southern border of the FA by mid morning.
Thunderstorms lingering near the river will move out by noon.
This will leave decreasing clouds and dry weather that will
persist through Friday night. In addition, cooler temperatures
arriving on a northerly flow will be observed. First below
normal highs of the month are forecast to range from the upper
70s north to the lower 80s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast period begins with ridge providing drier air and slightly
below normal temperatures with cooling trend. Some model
differences begin to show up for first of the week. While certainly
not sold on GFS solution feel the need to include small pop for this
for Monday and Tuesday for now and wait for future fcst solutions to
support anything more. Fairly benign pattern for rest of week will
keep rain chances low and temps close to normal values. Forecast
temperatures near guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Chances for thunderstorms are gradually diminishing, but a few
showers (or possibly a storm) will not be able to be ruled out
during the overnight hours. Winds are somewhat variable right
now in the wake of all the storms, but should settle into a
northwesterly to northerly direction overnight.
A brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible in the early
morning hours. Not confident enough in this to include it
specifically in the TAFs, but enough to mention it here.
Chances for precipitation will end from north to south on Friday
morning, leading to clearing skies. Some slightly gusty winds
out of the north will occur during the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Padgett
AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
907 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
The threat of heavy rainfall has diminished across the area. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm is still possible overnight as a
cool front drops southward across the region. Chances of rain will
end by daybreak with cooler and less humid conditions for Friday.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 60s north to
around 70 south. High temperatures on Friday will range from 75 to
80. The cooler and less humid conditions will persist into the
weekend with temperatures moderating back into the lower to
middle 80s by Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Showers and storms have largely dissipated as pool of mixed layer
CIN has encompassed much of western/central portions of the area.
Best remaining instability appears to be across far northeast
Indiana/south central Lower Michigan/northwest Ohio which largely
bypassed stabilizing effects of showers/storms earlier today.
Surface frontal boundary will drop southward across the region
overnight, although bulk of remaining storms have shifted well
south of the area in what has become effective frontal boundary
stemming from residual outflows/cold pools. With some maintenance
of higher low level theta-e air accompanying low level trough
overnight and associated weak elevated instability, did keep
slight chance thunder PoPs going following frontal progression,
with the best chances generally east of I-69 overnight in closer
proximity to a weak low level reflection.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
What remains of this morning`s convection continues its southward
march towards Kentucky. The outflow from this convection has
helped to initiate a few showers just south of the Fort Wayne
terminal. So far storms have remained below severe levels, but
have produced a few gusts near 50 mph across the southern portion
of the CWFA due to an area of increased instability. 17Z LAPS
analysis shows MLCAPE between 500 to 1500 J/kg for areas which
have received precip today while remaining near 3K over the far
eastern and western periphery of the CWFA. Deep layer shear has
begun to increase into the 20kt range across the west and is
expected to expand area wide later this evening. The HRRR had a
fairly good handle on the convective evolution, but recent runs
are too slow on the convection ahead of the cold front given
current radar trends. This convection will likely persist into our
area before seeing a gradual weakening given the earlier
convection. Given the above mentioned convective parameters,
concern remains for an isolated severe wind gusts through this
evening while the heavy rain threat will persist until convection
clears the CWFA. Speaking of the front, it has already moved into
IL and should be entering the CWA after 8 PM EDT. It will then
slowly progress south-southeastward to exit the southern portions
of the CWFA prior to sunrise. This will linger POPs for western OH
through 5 AM EDT.
The remainder of Friday should be fairly pleasant with north-
northeast winds around 15 mph. High temperatures should range from
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Pleasant weather is expected through the weekend and into early
next week. The next cold front continues to be progged for
Tuesday. Models are still going back and forth concerning
associated convection. Have kept mention out of the forecast for
this front. Another system approaches the area late in the
forecast which would present a better chance for storms around
mid-week. Will monitor for changes over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Showers and storms earlier today worked over the environment
keeping most thunderstorms across the forecast area at bay. A
final boundary is expected to pass through the terminals by 12z
Friday allowing for showers and a low chance of storms at both
terminals ahead of that boundary. Expect a slow decay of shower
chances especially after 6z. After the aforementioned boundary
moves through, expect clouds to begin to break up and VFR
conditions to continue through the rest of the period.
Tomorrow, winds veer to northeasterly after starting out the
period out of the west. Winds will also be breezy on Friday with
increased diurnal mixing and a slightly invigorated low level jet
behind the boundary.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Roller
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1140 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018
The storms have diminished across the area, and have freshened up
the POPs to account for the expected overnight lull. The latest
HRRR still indicates an uptick in convection north of the
Mountain Parkway towards dawn, and will continue to mention
slight chance POPs during that time frame. Otherwise, partly
clouds skies and another balmy night with lows around 70 will be
on tap. Also expect some patchy fog in the deeper valleys,
especially those coincident with more significant rainfall that
had occurred earlier.
UPDATE Issued at 851 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018
Broken line of storms are currently aligned from Breathitt County
down across Pulaski County. These storms have been pushing south
along an outflow boundary. There remains a few beefier embedded
cells containing some stronger wind gusts; however, as the
boundary layer continues to cool and stabilize in the low levels,
the threat of stronger wind gusts will be diminishing over the
next hour or so. Will freshen up the POP trends through the
overnight. Would expect a lull in activity given that multiple
outflow boundaries have moved through most of the area and the
surface cold front remains well to the north. Updates will be out
shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018
The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front and surface high
pressure slowly pushing southward into the Upper Midwest, with
weaker surface high pressure placed in the Eastern US. The
convection has slowly started increasing this afternoon amid an
unstable and moist environment. The best POPs so far this
afternoon have generally been around Lake Cumberland and across
the Bluegrass. These will be primarily mesoscale dominated
processes through the afternoon and evening and therefore kept
POPs in the slight to chance range through the period.
The aforementioned cold front will slowly progress southward
toward the region late tonight into Friday. This along with slight
height falls will be the focus for convection for Friday and did
generally keep the better POPs along and south of I-64. This is
the area that stands to see the best potential for instability to
build ahead of the lifting associated with the boundary. This
boundary will slide southward and bring much drier airmass to
round out the period, with PWATs dropping below 1 inch through the
afternoon and evening hours Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018
High pressure will build south for the weekend allowing for dry
and cooler conditions to be seen. The upper level ridge may break
down a bit by Sunday afternoon allowing for a few showers or
storms to develop in the Cumberland plateau into central Kentucky.
The 12z GFS is looking much more active next week, at least with
regards to afternoon convection. Thus, at least low end pops will
be introduced into each period from Sunday through Thursday. A
frontal boundary may drop in and stall over the region by mid
week, allowing for better chances of organized convection. While
temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 80s by
Sunday, they should generally remain around that level through
next week. This will keep the heat from becoming an issue again
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018
A broken line of storms aligned from KJKL to KLOZ to KSME will
drop south over the next hour and gradually weaken. Most of these
cells to look move just around the TAF sites, so will be including
an hour or two period of VCTS. Some outflow, with wind gusts of
15 to 25 kts will move through these locations. Otherwise, expect
a lull in the activity through the rest of the night, with some
fog likely forming in areas that saw more significant rainfall
today. Have included general MVFR at KSYM, since this site is
already reporting haze. Some dips into IFR are possible; however,
some additional cloud cover overnight may thwart more dense fog.
A cold front will approach the area on Friday, with renewed
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will remain light and
variable outside of thunderstorms through dawn, with a shift to
the north at around 5 kts at some point on Friday as the front
moves through the area.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Overall the CAM guidance has been a bit slow to catch up to recent
trends over the last few hours, but the HRRR seems to have now
caught on that the KY convection looks to wain as it moves
southward into TN. Therefore opted to lower pops around 10 percent
or so across the board, however holding on a bit longer over the
lower plateau as well as the southeast TN and southwest NC mtns
where current convection resides. Otherwise, temperature trends
looked pretty good therefore no sig changes on that front. Given
the scattered nature of convection today/tonight and the abundance
of moisture in the BL, did include patchy fog across much of the
region for the overnight with little/no dense fog fcst at this
time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 88 71 85 / 40 60 50 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 86 68 85 / 40 70 50 20
Oak Ridge, TN 74 85 68 85 / 50 70 50 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 83 65 83 / 40 70 40 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
CDG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
431 PM PDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A generally seasonable weather pattern will continue
to be in place with temperatures gradually warming to above
normal, especially inland, over the weekend. Mid level clouds
from Hurricane Fabio will pass over the region on Friday, but no
precip is forecast at this time. A cooling trend is forecast to
occur starting Tuesday as high pressure weakens over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 2:16 PM PDT Thursday...A building upper-level
ridge is making its presence known this afternoon, eroding most
of the stratus that blanketed the CWA this morning. Temperatures
have also responded, warming up nicely, especially across interior
parts of the district. Temperatures are already 5 to 10 degrees
warmer, locally higher, than 24 hours ago for locations away from
the coast. With a few more hours of daytime heating, it`s possible
temps may get a few degrees warmer before all is said and done for
the day.
Daytime temperatures will continue to increase tomorrow, and into
the weekend as the ridge of high pressure continues to build
westward over the next couple of days. Did raise high temperatures
by a couple of degrees for southern and eastern parts of the CWA
through the weekend, but there are some questions on how warm
temperatures will get, especially tomorrow given the mid and upper
level moisture from Hurricane Fabio that will be in place over
much of the state. As far as precipitation chances from Fabio in
the Bay Area, still not convinced that precipitation will occur.
However, it`s worth noting that the latest MTRWRF and HRRR
forecast models do produce very light (a few hundredths of an
inch) convective-type precipitation for the Greater San Francisco
Bay Area/North Bay region Friday morning around or slightly before
sunrise. With very little instability to work with, there`s even
less confidence of lightning occuring, if precipitation does occur
at all. This will continue to be monitored through the day and
evening, and updated if necessary.
The upper-level ridge will continue to build over the weekend,
further increasing temperatures that will be especially felt
inland through Monday. Anticipate temperatures to range from mid 60s
along the coastline to mid 100s for some inland locations during
this time period. Although warm and dry this weekend, do not
anticipate any fire or heat products to be issued, at this time.
Long range forecast models have the upper-level ridge weakening
and shifting eastward towards the Northern Plains by Tuesday.
This should generate a cooling trend through the middle part of
next week. Will have to keep an eye on forecast trends with
regards to monsoonal moisture that is being produced by long
range models for the Sierras and Southern California by mid week
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 04:31 PM PDT Thursday...VFR with high clouds
beginning to stream over the area south of San Jose. Models are
still suggesting drying at low levels with increasing high clouds
throughout tomorrow. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected
through the period with the exception of possible MVFR/IFR cigs at
KMRY late tonight. Generally light winds through the period.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the period. Some low cloud
development is possible into early tomorrow morning but not
expecting cigs to go BKN at this time. Increasing high clouds
forecast to stream overhead throughout tomorrow. Gusty westerly
winds this afternoon and into this evening (20-23 kt) before
winds subside overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through tonight. Some cigs possible
late tonight for KMRY, but KSNS is expected to remain VFR through
the period. Confidence remains low on cigs tonight as models still
disagree on the development of low clouds around the Peninsula.
&&
.MARINE...as of 01:29 PM PDT Thursday...Light to moderate winds
will prevail over the coastal waters tonight. Building high
pressure will increase northerly winds on Friday and into the
weekend. A long period southerly swell generated by Hurricane
Fabio will continue to impact the Central Coast through Saturday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BAM
AVIATION: AS
MARINE: MM
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
133 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.DISCUSSION...General high level moisture noted over our area this
afternoon with the slightest chance for an evening sprinkle in the
Bear Lake area; otherwise dry conditions will persist for the
foreseeable further. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be
quite similar to today. Over the weekend, some increased moisture
is expected to fill into our area. Forecast models once more
differ in their solutions regarding QPF amounts. GFS is more
favorable in their QPF amounts where the ECMWF is more dry. We are
forecasting a slight chance to chance of rain at this time Monday
into Tuesday primarily along and east of the interstate corridor.
There is not much relief in sight when it comes to temperatures
with the 80 to 90 degree weather continuing well into next week.
NP/DMH
&&
.AVIATION...Some mid-to high level moisture will move through
during the overnight hours, so no -TSRA activity expected since it
will arrive late tonight. It will linger in most spots until
06/18Z, at some locations developing a CIG; however, no
operational impact expected. HRRR indicated some gusty wind for
the late afternoon, so did increase wind in the Snake River plain
airdromes. No -TSRA expected Fri afternoon either. Messick
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will allow some cloudiness to slide
through this evening and late tonight, but not expected to generate
any thunderstorms, except perhaps near the ID-WY border. The same
thing occurs Fri afternoon and evening, but again it barely
qualifies as slight chance. The Haines Index also stay in moderate
and high categories. A dry and strong southwest flow develops for
Sat due to a trough coming in. This will cool temperatures and
reduce the Haines Index, and it just may keep humidity high enough
to prevent a critical weather pattern from developing. On Sun,
afternoon temperatures will warm again as airflow becomes more
southerly due to the approaching trough. The trough crosses through
eastern Idaho on Mon/Tue, when the next significant risk of
thunderstorms occurs on both afternoons, although not everywhere.
The main focus for convection with this feature will be the eastern
zones, including the Idaho Falls BLM district and all of the CTNF.
The southern Sawtooth NF is also at risk. By Wed, westerly flow will
develop and keep the moisture and unstable air in central and
southern Utah. Temperatures/humidity won`t change much after Tue,
but look for breezier conditions to develop Thu again. Messick
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
...Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon and this evening
which will bring a risk for flash flooding on newer burn scars if a
strong thunderstorm moves over these areas...
The rain forecast is a mixed blessing for southeast Colorado. While
most areas will appreciate any precipitation that is received, it is
hard to know exactly how the burn scars on the current active fires
will react to even a brief period of intense rainfall. Past
experience with burn scars shows that with intense bursts of
rainfall, we can expect flash flooding and debris flows on the most
severely burned areas. Overall, the increased cloud cover, higher
relative humidities, lower temperatures, and light rain will aid
firefighting and fire suppression activities.
Latest runs of the HRRR are pinpointing the Rampart Range for
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and early this evening
with storms then spreading eastward across El Paso County. Have
added El Paso County to the Flash Flood Watch based on the model
guidance continuing to hit this area late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Additionally, some areas received decent rainfall out
of the spotty thunderstorms last night. Scattered convection also
possible across the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains as well as
portions of Pueblo, Fremont, and Custer Counties. HRRR continues the
precipitation through the early morning hours on the far southeast
plains.
On Friday, the upper level high builds over the four corners region
with a weak embedded disturbances moving through the flow. Expect
scattered thunderstorms to form over the mountains. Best chances for
precipitation appear to be over the southwest and far southeast
portions of the state, but even an isolated thunderstorm could pose
a threat to one of the burn scars.
Temperatures running near normal Friday, but expect dewpoints in the
low to mid 50s on the southeast surface winds. It may feel a bit
more humid to folks in southeast Colorado. Stark
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Friday night-Sunday...No big changes in ongoing forecast as the
upper high centered over western Colorado Friday night is progged to
slowly lift north and east through the weekend. This will allow for
weak north to northeast flow aloft to develop across the region with
the best atmospheric moisture expected to be shunted west of the
area through the period. With some moisture in place, along with the
more north to northeast flow aloft, the best chances of afternoon
and evening storms will be over the higher terrain, especially along
and west of the ContDvd, through the weekend. With the weak steering
flow aloft, storms will still have the potential to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding, however, the coverage of these
storms will be less widespread. Temperatures are also progged to
warm back to above seasonal levels through the period, with highs in
the mid 80s to upper 90s expected across the lower elevations and
mainly in the 60s to lower 80s across the higher terrain.
Monday-Thursday...A broad elongated upper high continues to be
progged across the Central CONUS through the middle of next week,
with flow aloft across Colorado expected to become more east to
southeast, though remaining weak through the period. This should
allow for another slow increase in available moisture, as
subtropical moisture advects into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico. Pattern supports slowing increasing chances of diurnal
convection through the period, with best chances remaining over and
near the higher terrain. With the weak flow aloft, storms will be
slow moving, leading to possible localized heavy rain, and flash
flooding, especially if the storms form or move over the new/active
burn scars. Temperatures look to remain at or above seasonal norms
through the period, with daytime highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s
across the lower elevations and mainly 60s to lower 80s across the
higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 306 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Thunderstorms are possible at all three TAF sites into the evening
hours. Surface winds will remain from the east or southeast with
increasing cloud cover as convection continues to develop. Later
tonight, the thunderstorms will move over the far southeast plains
of Colorado with scattered mid clouds lingering over the TAF
locations. Scattered thunderstorms will develop over southern
Colorado again on Friday...mainly after 18Z. Stark
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>081-
083>085-087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STARK
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STARK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1020 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push into the mid-Atlantic Friday morning and
move across North Carolina Friday night before settling across
South Carolina and Georgia on Saturday. An unseasonably cool
high pressure system will extend into the Carolinas through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Thursday...
Convection has dissipated this evening with nocturnal stabilization
taking hold. Expect quite weather overnight with lack of really
any flow across the area, with perhaps some stratus and/or patchy
fog (especially for locations that received precip this evening).
Otherwise, expect another warm or muggy night, with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...
The cold front associated with the aforementioned short wave will
provide the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms as it moves
SE and across our area Friday afternoon and evening. Look for
showers and storms to move into our NW and Triad zones during the
early to mid-afternoon, then progress sewd through the rest of our
area during the late afternoon and evening hours. While pre-frontal
daytime heating should result in moderate instability, the deep
layer wind field, and bulk shear are very weak. Thus, look for deep
convection which should produce frequent lightning, heavy downpours
and modest winds gusts, but overall should remain mostly sub-severe.
The showers and storms are expected to push south of our area by
late-evening, however, patchy light showers may persist across our
area behind the front during the late-evening and overnight hours,
thus will keep good chance PoPs going Friday night.
With similar airmass as today ahead of the front, look for temps to
climb into the mid-upr 80s just before the storms and front move
through. Then behind the front, temps will cool Friday night into
the upper 60s NW, to lower 70s SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM Thursday...
The upper-air pattern at the start of the long term period features
a trough from the New England coast south to GA with a strong
ridge centered across the eastern Rockies early Saturday. With
time, the trough axis will slip south with time and become east
to west oriented by the beginning of the work week as the ridge
extends eastward into the mid-Atlantic. The ridge axis retreats
a bit across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday allowing
a northwest flow aloft to develop and pushing a weak short wave
trough across the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday with another trough
approaching late Thursday.
As the front pushes south, the threat of showers/storms on Saturday
will be focused across the south and southeastern part of the CWA.
Only a very limited chance of showers is expected across the far
south on Sunday with cool but dry weather elsewhere. High
pressure will result in dry weather on Monday and Tuesday. A
limited threat of showers and storms is expected on Wednesday
and Thursday with an increasingly moist northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will be much below normal on Saturday with low-level
thickness values near 1390m near the VA border, H8 temps below 15C,
and a fair amount of cloudiness. Highs will range in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Much more sunshine on Sunday will lead to a
nice weather day in most locations with highs in the lower to
mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs
moderate into the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday.
The warming trend continues for Wednesday and Thursday. Opted
to stay below WPC guidance which includes a high of 100 for
Thursday and stick with highs in the lower to mid 90s for now.
-Blaes
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM Thursday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to decrease in
coverage this evening as daytime heating is slowly lost. In any
stronger showers and thunderstorms some gusty winds along with
vsby restrictions (possibly down to VLIFR) will be the primary
aviation impacts. High res models show the showers and
thunderstorms significantly decreasing in coverage over the next
couple of hours.
Friday morning models are indicating some potential stratus/ fog
restrictions across the southeast (towards KFAY/ KRWI). The
HRRR and NAM don`t look as impressive as before, and with
convection remaining mostly scattered in coverage think this
makes sense. For now have left IFR restrictions in. Any
restrictions that do occur Friday morning will be transient in
nature and will quickly lift. Friday afternoon into evening a
surface cold front will cross the TAF sites bringing another
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Surface
convergence along the front appears to weaken as the front heads
south and east. Therefore have kept the prevailing limited to
KINT, KGSO, and KRDU.
After 00Z Saturday: IFR/ MVFR restrictions in ceilings will be
possible behind the front Saturday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...HAINES
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1119 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front arrives in the northwest early Friday with
increased chances for rainfall through the day. Noticeably
cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend as high
pressure builds in. Warmer and more humid conditions return by
mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1115 PM EDT Thursday...
Hi Res and HRRR guidance showing persistent convergence in
southeast West Virginia overnight, otherwise isolated showers
and thunderstorms for southwest Virginia and northwest North
Carolina. Little change needed to forecast for minimum
temperatures overnight.
Front should be on our doorstep around 12Z/8AM with chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning to increase and continuing
to likely POPs for most areas during the day. The front is
fairly progressive and will be about to exit the southeast CWA
around 00z Saturday/8PM Friday but with lingering showers
possible especially in the southern sections. QPF is generally
in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch range most of which will fall in a
roughly 12-hour period between 12z/8AM Fri and 00z Sat/8PM Fri.
Expect considerable variation as is typical in convective
regimes, with localized amounts up to 1 to 2 inches. WPC Day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook, just issued, highlights a slight
risk in the far NW CWA, mainly Greenbrier County for rainfall
exceeding flash flood guidance even before 12z. The Day 2
outlook was pointed toward mainly the southern sections of the
CWA where the front could be slow- moving enough to produce some
higher rainfall amounts and some local runoff issues. Portions
of the CWA have become very dry in recent weeks and could
benefit greatly from a decent slug of moisture, especially in
part of the New River valley and parts of southside VA.
Temperatures will be held down somewhat tomorrow by the
increased cloud cover especially in the northwest where clouds
arrive earlier.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...
Friday night a cold front will head south of the region. Good
coverage of showers and storms associated with it will still be
across at least the southern half of the region around sunset. By
daybreak Saturday, isolated to scattered showers will be across
the far southern sections of the region. These showers will
linger during the course of the day Saturday across the far
southwest part of the area as winds become easterly and pool
moisture along the northern mountains of North Carolina.
High pressure will start to make its way into the area on
Saturday with lower dew points and temperatures. By Saturday
night, low temperatures across the mountains will range from the
low to mid 50s with upper 50s to readings around 60 across the
Piedmont. High temperatures on Sunday will average the mid to
upper 70s across the mountains with some the higher peaks and
ridges only reaching the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Across
the Piedmont, highs around 80 to the lower 80s are forecast.
Cloud cover will decrease from north to south during the course of
the day Saturday, with sunny skies for the entire area on Sunday.
Winds will be steady from the north to northeast around 10 to 15 mph
late Friday night into Saturday behind the front. Saturday night
into Sunday they will become weaker and trend more easterly.
Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is high.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...
Cooler and drier high pressure will settle over the region this
weekend. Look for a trend of decreasing cloud cover with
temperatures averaging five to ten degrees below normal. The dry
weather is expected to continue into early next week. Monday
into Tuesday, the center of the high retrogrades west as a
trough starts to develop across New England. Precipitation
chances will start to increase, but still be on the low side.
Temperatures will rebound to values closer to normal for this
time of year. By Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will
continue their trend upward with readings slightly above normal.
Guidance differs as to the degree which a shortwave trough
approaches the area by Thursday. Will continue with a status quo
forecast that keeps precipitation chances on the low side with
the shortwave trough north of the area. Temperatures will
continue to creep higher through Thursday with values slightly
above normal.
Forecast confidence on the above portion of the forecast is low to
moderate with precipitation chances being the biggest question
mark.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...
Area radars indicated isolated thunderstorms over southwest
Virginia, northwest North Carolina, and southeast West Virginia.
These thunderstorms will diminish throughout the evening.
Above average confidence that patchy fog will develop in
locations that had rain this afternoon. Expect MVFR fog across
much of the New River and Greenbrier River Valleys late
tonight, including at KLWB and KBCB.
A cold front will move into the region on Friday with widespread
showers and thunderstorms along with MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. The wind will be to the west to southwest ahead of
the front and will turn to the northwest then north behind the
front. Timing of the front in the models has been consistent for
the past few runs. Have narrowed down the time of the worst
conditions and highest probability of precipitation in the TAFs
but this could easily occur for more than just a couple of
hours. It is possible that the storms will be ongoing and the
wind shift will just be approaching KDAN at the end of the TAF
forecast period.
Confidence is above average on the ocarinas of thunderstorms
and the timing of the front on Friday.
Extended Aviation...
Over the weekend and into Tuesday, high pressure and drier air
work its way into the area. VFR conditions will prevail for most
of the region, most of this time. Late night/early morning will
be a daily issue.
Confidence in the extended forecast is above average.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...
The NOAA weather radio transmitter in Hinton, West Virginia,
WXM72 broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz, remains off
the air. It will remain offline until sometime next week. Parts
are on order to repair the transmitter, and are expected early
next week. Therefore, the system may again be operation on/by
July 11th. We apologize for any inconvenience.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JR
NEAR TERM...AMS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS/WERT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
Cumulus development has been a little more noticeable this
afternoon and short term guidance like the HRRR and NAMNest show
at least a small chance for a couple isolated showers or storms to
pop up across the area over the next few hours...especially across
southern Missouri south of I-44. Any convection would dissipate
by sunset with a mostly quiet evening. A cold front which is
located across northern Kansas and Missouri will slide southward
overnight and move through the area Friday morning. Due to timing
of the passage of the front, it doesn`t appear good for our rain
chances. We will mention a slight chance for a couple showers or
isolated storm along or ahead of the front early on Friday.
Otherwise most areas will continue to remain dry.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
The good news is that behind the passage of the cold front on
Friday, much nicer weather is on the way for the weekend with a
drop in dewpoints and humidity along with slightly cooler airmass.
Guidance indicates highs in the middle to upper 80s with over
night lows in the 60s with upper 50s likely by Sunday morning east
of Highway 65. It will definitely feel better and give us a little
break from the excessive heat and humidity. The weather will be
perfect for anything outdoors. Dewpoints this weekend will fall
into the lower to middle 50s.
The upper level ridge repositions over the Rockies into the
Northern High Plains region early next week. Light southerly winds
will return by Sunday evening and Monday with a return of
humidity. Small chances for isolated afternoon pop up showers and
storms will also return early next week with the return of low
level moisture. We will be on the bottom or southeast side of the
mid level ridge of high pressure which means our weather pattern
will travel from east to west much of next week. Temperatures will
also be back into the lower 90s with heat index values closer to
100 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018
THe regions weather will remain VFR this evening and through the
overnight hours. The only thing that may impact the regions
terminals would be a stray shower or storm. THe impacts should be
limited and will diminish shortly after sun set. Additional
showers and storms will again be possible to the area Friday
afternoon.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Hatch