Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/04/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
804 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Allowed heat advisory to expire. Developing thunderstorms are
adding to the cloud cover and temperatures are dropping in areas
receiving rain. Drier spots across south central SD will slowly
cool after sunset.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Made a few tweaks to evening pops based on latest HRRR and current
radar returns. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for the
overnight period with two rounds of storms possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Convection remains the main challenge in the short range.
Instability continues to increase across the region this afternoon as
diabatic heating continues. However, deep layer shear is probably
slackening as the mid level westerlies retreat to the north this
afternoon and evening. Also, heights continue to build
across the region with warming temps aloft. Meanwhile, ll shear will
remain decent through tonight given continued llj, and its diurnal
increase this evening. The CAMS and non-CAMS are at odds concerning
convective development in the northeast toward evening. The HRRR is
somewhat aggressive, perhaps picking up on outflow boundaries left
behind by the morning convection. Non-CAMS favor activity
developing further north, or not at all over the northeast this
evening. Later in the evening there is fair agreement that an MCS
will fire up over the High Plains, and then head northeast
overnight. The main threat with the possible early evening
convection will be hail and heavy rain, and the late night activity
should favor gusty winds. Nonetheless, confidence in how all this
will play out is fairly low attm. Temperatures will be above normal
through Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Mid level ridge will expand from the eastern conus, back west to the
central conus during the period. The ridge does get knocked down
some by passing s/w energy late in the weekend, into early next
week. That is likely the best opportunity for any meaningful pcpn
during the period, since prior to that the strong mid level ridge
should provide for general subsidence across the Northern Plains.
Meanwhile, temperatures should remain near to above normal through
most of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
VFR conditions are expected to prevail except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Strong winds and large hail will be possible with
any storms this evening and overnight.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1156 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Surface high pressure is over the eastern Great Lakes this evening
with southerly return flow becoming established across Michigan.
Low-mid level theta-e axis across the lower lake region is making
northward progress evidenced by some cloud cover working north and
pop-up showers in far southern lower MI.
Lower level moist layer and corresponding gradient of modest
instability will continue to push up into the region overnight. No
big synoptic forcing mechanisms in play, but guidance does have a
slight uptick in the low level flow/jet which could eventually force
some isolated showers late as suggested by some high-res guidance
solutions and as spelled out in our going forecast in our southern
counties. Not real confident that will happen, but I can`t say it
will not either. So I`ll probably just leave the slight chance
pops alone for now.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
...A few showers creeping north overnight...
High impact weather potential...none.
High pressure over the eastern lakes extends ridging back into
northern lower MI. This is supporting abundant sunshine, with mid
afternoon temps in the lower 80s to lower 90s. High pressure heads a
bit further east tonight, while a weak wave of low pressure forms
on a warm front just north of Superior. That tightens up the
pressure gradient a bit, allowing better moisture to gradually
advect northward. Spotty convection is already seen to our south,
just south of MI. Primary forecast concern is whether any of that
can linger into the overnight as it heads north.
Nam Bufr soundings show a moist layer (900-800mb) pushing north into
southern portions of the forecast area late in the overnight. There
is still a cap at 700mb (+10C), but if the Nam is correct there is
enough moisture to largely erode that cap. The Nam is likely
overdone with moisture return (a typical bias). But it`s not alone;
most HRRR runs have isolated showers making it to northern lower MI
overnight, while the RAP actually brings substantial rains to s
central sections overnight. That looks way overdone...but there`s
enough moisture/instability to add a slight chance of showers after
4 am for CAD/HTL/Gladwin/Grayling.
Mostly clear skies in the 1st half of the night, becoming partly
cloudy in the south overnight. Min temps a few degrees warmer than
last night, primarily in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
...Warm and humid through Thursday, then drier...
High Impact Weather Potential: Minor, mainly dry through Wednesday
afternoon before increasing chances for thunderstorm potential
Wednesday night and Thursday.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: The primary forecast challenge
will be thunderstorm potential and the associated threats.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A large area of high pressure centered
over the mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley since Monday night, will
slowly breakdown over the Great Lakes Wednesday evening. A weak
surface boundary, associated with a storm system moving across
Ontario, will sweep over the nrn lakes Thursday as the system exits
into Quebec.
Overall will continue with a mainly dry forecast over much of
northern Michigan through Wednesday afternoon, as dynamics
associated with approaching boundary will be confined to an area
right along the front. 850/700mb qvector convergence shows strong
forcing dropping into upper Michigan along the boundary around 06z
Thursday, and into nrn lower between 12z and 18z Thursday. Model
soundings and mstr progs show sufficient low and mid lvl moisture
(sfc dew pts nearing 65 with 850mb dew pts around 18c) and
instability (0-3km MUcape around 2500j/kg) to generate a line of
thunderstorms in advance of the boundary. Kindex around the mid 30s,
pwat over 1.75 inch and Dcape over 1000j/kg would suggest strong
wind gusts and heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms. The airmass
quickly dries and becomes more stable on the backside of the
boundary (sfc dew pts fall into the upper 50s to around 60) while
high pressure and subsidence quickly filtering back into the Great
lakes by late Thursday afternoon and evening. It will be much cooler
and drier Friday as high pressure settles back over the region and
sfc dew pts fall back into the upper 40s and lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
A warm and largely dry pattern to setup across the northern Great
Lakes through the forecast period. Broad upper trough over the
eastern Great Lakes to begin the weekend will slowly push east as
500mb heights begin to build over the upper midwest and Great Lakes
to begin the upcoming work week. Mild mid lvl temperatures in this
pattern will generate afternoon highs around 80 saturday warming
into the mid 80s for the remainder of the forecast period. The large
area of high pressure centered over the state through hte weekend
will maintain dry conditions over nrn michgian through Monday while
the chance of pcpn increases Tuesday as a storm system moving over
Ontario drops south into the Great lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Surface high pressure is over the eastern lakes region with
southerly return flow becoming established across Michigan. Still
quiet out there with solid VFR flight conditions. But there is a
lower level moisture axis making northward progress from the lower
lakes up into northern Michigan evidenced by some (VFR) cloud
cover trying to work into the region and a few showers/storms in
far southern lower Michigan. Return moisture and some cloud cover
will work up into northern Michigan tonight although I`m not
expecting much by way of precip at the terminal sites.
Wednesday remains VFR, but there will SCT to BKN daytime CU
development and pop-up shower chances will also be on the
increase.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Winds and waves are expected to remain below small craft criteria
through the forecast period. A large area of high pressure will
generate mainly dry conditions across nrn Michigan nearshore waters
through Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms chances increase
Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak frontal boundary drops south
over nrn Michigan. Variable winds under 10kts through Wednesday will
trend southwest Thursday morning, before becoming gusty northwest
Thursday evening on the backside of the exiting sfc boundary.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...SR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1018 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Severe thunderstorm watch #261 has been issued for almost all of
western and central North Dakota. There are two main areas of
concern with the activity currently moving into western North
Dakota. One will be the complex of storms over eastern Montana as
it approaches the Williston area and northwest North Dakota. The
other will be the activity that has already started moving into
the southwest from northwest South Dakota, which has already
prompted a severe thunderstorm warning over Bowman county. Coverage
and intensity should increase as the low level jet kicks in over
the next 1 to 3 hours. Should storms hold together, they are
likely to approach the Bismarck/Mandan area in the 06z to 08z
time frame, possibly transitioning into a severe QLCS as it
approaches the James River Valley. Populated precipitation chances
with the latest iteration of the time lagged HRRR which seems to
have a decent handle on the ongoing convection.
UPDATE Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
No major changes were needed for this update. Just tweaked
precipitation chances through 12z using a blend of the latest time
lagged HRRR and the latest run of CONSSHORT guidance. Still think
a strong to severe storm may be possible in the next couple of
hours over the far southern James River Valley. The next round,
that will enter the southwest around 02z to 05z, will likely track
across the southern third of the forecast area through the
overnight hours. Some of these storms may also become strong to
severe.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
The main forecast issue in the short term period will be
thunderstorm chances tonight.
Currently, low pressure was situated over central South Dakota
with a warm front into eastern North Dakota, and a weak inverted
trough into north central-northwest ND. The area of low pressure
and warm front will remain nearly stationary through this evening.
Low pressure will continue to develop over eastern Montana and
the western Dakotas ahead of an upper low and associated shortwave
trough currently tracking through the northern Rockies.
We continue to destabilize this afternoon over the Dakotas with
current MLCAPE values around 500-1000J/kg north to nearly 3000J/kg
over portions of the southern James River Valley, and a broad area
of 50-60 knots of deep layer shear over most of the state of ND.
CAMS have been pretty consistent in developing two areas of
convection this afternoon/early evening. The first is along the
Canadian border over northwest/north central ND in an area of
steepening low level lapse rates. Even though deep layer shear is
significant here, mid level lapse rates lag behind the central and
southern portion of the state and CAPE values are more meager.
The southern James River Valley and into northeast South Dakota is
the second area of convection to focus on early in the forecast
period. Very unstable airmass exists here with steep mid level
lapse rates and abundant low level moisture. The threat for very
large hail will exist here as well as possible tornadoes,
especially as you get farther south, along the far southern tier
counties and moreso into South Dakota. This will be the favored
area to monitor late this afternoon into this evening.
Later tonight the aforementioned shortwave trough should have
fired convection over the northern high plains and it will be
making its way into the Dakotas. Some of the CAMS suggest another
possible bowing segment somewhere in the vicinity of the ND/SD
border. There may be another area that clips the northwest portion
of the state, associated with the upper low. The threat of severe
weather in this area is more uncertain, with a marginal risk from
SPC up to the Canadian border.
The upper trough finally pushes convection completely through the
forecast area by the morning of the 4th. This will bring clearing
skies from west to east in the morning and mostly sunny but breezy
to windy conditions in the afternoon. Highs will range from the
mid 70s to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Wednesday night through Saturday, an upper level western ridge
builds behind the exiting upper low, and this ridge expands into
the Plains. This should result in a generally thunderstorm free
period with a warming trend. However, an isolated storm due to the
heating of the day can not be completely ruled out somewhere in
the forecast area. Look for highs Thursday from 75-85F, warming
to 85-95 for Friday and Saturday. On Saturday afternoon we see
heat indices rise to around 100F ahead of a cold front that pushes
through the forecast area, bringing a chance of thunderstorms.
Will need to monitor for possible heat advisory conditions, but
thinking now that we will not reach criteria for a long enough
period.
Another strong upper level shortwave moves east out of the Pacific
Northwest Saturday/Saturday night, dampening the upper ridge and
bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to our area Saturday
night, followed by a more zonal flow across our area Sunday
through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Another round of strong to severe storms is likely to enter
southwest North Dakota around 02z to 05z, before increasing in
coverage and making its way across the forecast area.
Thunderstorms will be possible at all sites during the overnight
hours, but the best chance for large hail and strong winds will
generally remain over the southern third of the forecast area. For
the most part, VFR conditions and light winds are expected, but
winds may become erratic with temporary visibility reductions
under heavier storms.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
819 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Strongest storms are over the far northeast plains where
the best cape exists this evening. Elsewhere there are
widely sct high based showers and isold storms over
the rest of the area. Overall don`t expect a repeat of last
evening where storms developed over the metro area and continued
over portions of the plains past midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018
An upper level trough will continue to progress to the east over the
Great Basin. For this evening, the main threat of isolated high
based showers and thunderstorms will continue with potential wind
gusts to 50 mph. There is also a marginal risk of severe storms
due to 1000 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE and minimal CIN which could
produce hail. Any storms on the eastern plains will likely be
sparked from outflow initiated by storms to the west. The HRRR
Smoke Model continues to show smoke from area fires spreading onto
the eastern plains through the evening which is supported by
southwest winds.
Wednesday smoke is expected to linger over the eastern plains. A
mid-morning front will push into northeastern Colorado sparking
showers and thunderstorms as it pushes against the terrain
boundaries of the Front Range Foothills and Palmer Divide.
Soundings show enough surface warming with cooler upper level
temperatures leading to support an unstable environment. QG
levels will be neutral to slightly negative aiding little to
thunderstorm formation. Afternoon storms are expected to start
near those orographic boundaries along the Front Range Foothills
and Palmer Divide then spreading northeast over the plains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018
The upper level ridge will be most of central and eastern CONUS
late Wednesday pulling in SSW flow. Moisture levels will increase
with PWAT values over an inch and approaching 1.3 by 00z Thursday.
The frontal boundary will have moved through earlier in the day
destabilizing conditions along the southern foothills and Palmer
divide. ML CAPE values around 00z range from 1500-2000 j/kg up to
3000 over the NE plains. Upper air soundings over the Denver region
show good mid-level lapse rate of 10 C/km with cooling aloft and PW
values over an inch into the evening hours on Wednesday. Bulk layer
shear will range from 25-35 kts according to various models with the
best shear east of Denver. Although not impressive, it could still
support a few supercells across the metro into the evening hours on
Wednesday. Main threats with the storms will be brief moderate rain
due to the increased moisture levels, gusty winds, lightning and
hail given better saturation in the growth zone. Further east,
soundings continue to have a decent cap in place into the evening,
but with ML CAPES approaching 3000 j/kg and shear in the mid 30s, if
an outflow boundary were to move through the area it could give the
atm what it needs to destabilize and support storms into the late
evening hours. Thursday will continue to see unstable conditions as
the upper ridge pulls moist SW flow over the region. High chance of
storms by the afternoon Thursday with the main threats once again
being moderate to heavy rain, lighting, winds and some hail chances.
QPF amounts are higher for Thursday afternoon and evening with a
quarter to half an inch possible with the stronger storms.
By Friday and into the weekend the upper ridge pushes west turning
upper level flow from a SSW direction to a more NNE direction
pulling in increasingly dryer air in the mid levels. Some storms
could form along the mountains by the late afternoon, but should
remain dry on the plains. Highs for Friday will approach the 90s
once again and get progressively warmer through the weekend. Over
the next few days the upper ridge will gradually become more
elongated. At the surface a building lee side low will help to keep
conditions on the plains more stable with just a slight chance of
storms over the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 811 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Boundaries are all over the place this evening, however, winds
have become mainly northeast. At this point winds may transition
to a more southeast direction, in the next hour or so, and then
become more soiuth to southeast by 06z. Meanwhile I don`t expect a
repeat of last night`s tstm activity, however, can`t rule out a
high based shower during the next few hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 811 PM MDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Red Flag warnings have been allowed to expire.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1143 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
The hottest and most oppressive heat has peaked, but it will
remain hot and humid through Friday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours are possible through
Friday. Cooler and less humid air will arrive this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Radar shows most of the convection hugging the periphery of the
CWA with scattered storms over the Laurels and along the
southern borders of York and Lancaster. Storms over the northern
mountains have faded greatly from earlier levels.
The HRRR is way too hot over the north where it shows a large
convective cluster from Erie almost to the Poconos. Disturbingly
it really blows up the SERN convection as it simultaneously expands
the northern convection down into the Central Mountains by
midnight. While the SPC meso pages does show an awful lot of
mixed layer CAPE, it`s hard to see what will trigger such a
widespread expansion of activity as we begin to diurnally cool.
I still like winding down the overall activity as we move
through the evening hours, but keeping the potential for
scattered storms in the humid unstable airmass.
The atmosphere is quite wet with PWATs approaching 2", so any of
these pulse storms could bring brief torrential rains. WPC
Excessive Rain Outlook has much of the area in a marginal risk.
The lowest 3hr FFG is over the western Alleghenies where
terrain could be a contributing factor. Locally heavy rains over
urban areas would also likely cause some problems.
65-75F dewpoints and nearly calm winds should promote areas of
fog or patchy low clouds into early Wednesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The Fourth of July should start with areas of low clouds and
fog before skies turn partly sunny. Model blends are showing a
decent signal for scattered afternoon thunderstorms especially
across the northern 2/3 of the CWA. Much like today, very high
PW air indicates the potential for locally heavy downpours with
a low risk of isolated flash flooding. D2 WPC ERO places some
of the area in a marginal risk.
Max HX values Wednesday afternoon will push heat advisory
criteria over the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Given the holiday
and plenty of outdoor festivities, some consideration will be
given to a heat advisory, but will allow later shifts to make
the final call. Did cover this in the updated HWO.
Diurnal convection should again wane into the evening hours,
hopefully avoiding area fireworks shows. Still can`t rule out a
stray shower or thunderstorm into early Wednesday night. Another
very humid and muggy night in store across central PA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*Sweltering heat/humidity will gradually lose its grip through
late week
*Cooler and less humid air will arrive this weekend
Pattern Overview: Anomalous closed upper level ridge centered
over the Northeast U.S. on Wednesday will retrograde westward
toward the Rockies by next weekend, allowing an upper trough
over southeast Canada to dip into New England. The upper trough
is forecast to amplify and send a cold front through the region
on Friday, breaking the heat wave and returning temperatures to
near average for early July. There is some question as to how
much upper ridging can rebound into early next week.
Weather threats/highlights: Additional storms Thu aftn-eve with
perhaps a better concentration in the NW with a lake breeze and
the approach of a front from the Upper Great Lakes. Strong
thunderstorms may accompany the cold front on Friday. Timing of
the front and extent of cloud cover will be key factors in
determining severe storm risk. Relief from the relentlessly
hot/humid weather will arrive this weekend as cooler and less
humid air sweeps southeast from Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible
overnight. However, the odds of any one spot being affected are
low. The main issue overnight will be patchy late night fog.
Local IFR conditions are possible between 08Z-12Z, mainly
where rain has fallen this evening, such as KBFD and KIPT.
Any early morning fog will mix out by late morning. Focus will
then shift toward scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
which could produce a brief vis reduction in spots.
.Outlook...
Thu...Patchy AM fog possible. Isolated PM thunderstorm impacts
possible, mainly northwest Pa.
Fri...Shower or thunderstorm impacts possible, mainly in the
morning.
Sat-Sun...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Early July record highs for select sites...
7/3 7/4
Harrisburg 107(1996) 104(1966)
Williamsport 100(1966) 100(1990)
Altoona 97(1966) 97(1966)
Bradford 91(1966) 91(1990)
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Made some adjustments to the next 24 hours in the forecast based
on the early 00z guidance rolling in. Late tonight through early
Wednesday morning, POPs have been drastically cut down as the
possibility for any thunderstorms looks to be confined to just
parts of north-central Minnesota where the leading edge of a low
level jet will ramp up in the next few hours. Most convection-
allowing guidance tries to create a massive cold pool from the
nearly stationary thunderstorm in west-central Minnesota near
Appleton, but so far this evening that has not happened. (Most
CAMs seem to have a habit of going a bit overboard with cold
pools and firing additional convection on the cold pool boundary.)
While outflow from this storm may eventually spark additional
storms in western Minnesota, in north-central any convection
overnight looks to be weak and limited in areal coverage.
For Wednesday, guidance seems to be coming into better agreement
on the evolution of convection but there remains a great spread in
temporal solutions. In general the large line of storms across the
ND/SD border west of Bismarck will track eastward in a very
healthy environment to sustain storms with SPC Mesoscale Analysis
depicting 3000 to as much as 5000 j/kg MUCAPE ahead of these
storms. As they track into western Minnesota Wednesday morning,
the elevated instability over the eastern Dakotas this evening
will advect northeast resulting in around 2000 to as much as 4000
j/kg MUCAPE over central and northern Minnesota by mid-morning
Wednesday with deep layer wind shear on the order of 30-35 knots.
Exactly when these storms might roll across NE MN is the big
question - a slower arrival could allow additional instability to
develop ahead of the line resulting in strong/severe storms around
mid-day, but an earlier arrival could mean weaker storms and cause
convective overturning to lower the chances for an
afternoon/evening round of storms. In general kept a trend with
increasing POPs mid day through the evening hours across in
northeast Minnesota, transitioning into NW Wisconsin in the late
afternoon/evening timeframe.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Forecast focus through the short term will be on additional
showers and storms, the severe threat with the storms, and the heavy
rain potential.
As of 2045Z, only a few showers were occurring across the
Northland. South/southwest 850MB winds from 30 to 45 knots are
forecast from the RAP this afternoon over eastern South Dakota
into northern Minnesota. Area VWP lend support to those winds,
although the stronger values are not sampled by the 88D network at
this time. The RAP forecasts these winds to decrease into the
evening before they start to increase again later tonight through
South Dakota into western Minnesota and our western CWA. The SPC
mesoanalysis page was showing very high MUCAPE values from
2000-4000 J/KG just south and west of the Northland with MLCAPE
values nearly as high. PWAT values were 1.5 to 1.8 inches so there
is plenty of instability and moisture for additional storms
tonight, some of which could be severe. Persistent moisture
transport into the area will should keep chances for more
showers/storms fairly widespread but they will be highest over our
western CWA which is closer to the LLJ. Much of the higher
resolution CAMS suggest coverage should start to increase after
00Z and especially late evening and overnight. We will add
northern Aitkin County to the Flood Watch and leave the times as
is.
Showers/storms will likely be ongoing over parts of the Northland
Wednesday morning, again chances will be highest over northern
Minnesota. A very unstable airmass should develop ahead of a
frontal boundary Wednesday afternoon, although it will be somewhat
dependent on storm/cloud debris from overnight convection, and
adequate deep layer shear should be in place for severe storms
over much of the Northland, but especially eastern Minnesota into
northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon and evening. Western portions
of the Northland should see minimal storm coverage by evening but
eastern Minnesota and especially northwest Wisconsin should see
some storms into the evening. Wednesday will be a warm and muggy
day, especially after the morning convection/cloud debris
diminishes.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, continue into
Wednesday night before high pressure builds in for the remainder
of the week through Saturday. Rain and thunderstorm chances
return Saturday night through Monday morning.
A cold front will progress southeastward through the Northland
Wednesday night. Pre-frontal thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
at 00Z and will advance generally eastward during the evening
hours. Strong to severe storms are possible, along with a risk of
heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding. High pressure is
forecast to build into the region from the northwest on Thursday
ushering in a period of quieter and drier weather. The ridge
gradually slides southeastward into the Ohio Valley by Saturday
night as a shortwave trough approaches from the west.
Southwesterly flow in the wake of the departing high will bring
moist and unstable air back into the Northland ahead of a surface
cool front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from the
eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota Saturday night, and over
the remainder of eastern and northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin on Sunday. The cool front will taken on a west-east
orientation over central portions of Wisconsin and Minnesota by
Sunday afternoon, and will push northward as a warm front Sunday
night. A strengthening low-level jet will provided convergence in
the vicinity of the front Sunday night with another round of
thunderstorms possible from central Minnesota across central and
northern Wisconsin into southern Upper Michigan.
Temperatures will trend a little cooler for Thursday with highs
in the 70s to low 80s. A little warmer Friday with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s, then low to middle 80s for Saturday through
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Most of the Northland was dry early this evening with an isolated
light shower over southern Koochiching County. Most of the cloud
bases were VFR but there were some MVFR in spots. Overall we
expect showers and storms to increase in coverage through the
evening, especially over western areas, with an expansion to the
east later tonight. Some of the storms could be strong to severe
as a very moist and unstable airmass is over the Northland. Some
fog will be possible later tonight as well and the fog and storms
will create a period of MVFR or possible IFR conditions.
Storms may be ongoing over parts of the Northland Wednesday
morning with more expected as a low/frontal boundary move into the
region during the day. Timing in the TAFs will be refined as we
progress through the night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 81 61 78 / 20 80 40 0
INL 67 82 58 74 / 60 60 20 0
BRD 69 84 63 79 / 30 60 30 0
HYR 68 88 66 81 / 10 60 50 10
ASX 61 86 63 79 / 10 70 50 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MNZ010-011-018-019-025-
026-033>035.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM
SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1048 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Very warm and humid with a chance of thunderstorms on the Fourth
of July, and a better chance Wednesday night.
The main belt of westerlies will remain across Canada and the far
northern United States during the forecast period. The flow will
gain modest amplitude at times and flatten back to nearly zonal at
others. The forecast area will remain near the southern edge of
the westerlies, with the upper flow across the area shifting back
and forth between southwest and northwest in response to the
passage of major shortwaves to our north.
Very warm and humid conditions tomorrow into Thursday will give
way to a period of more seasonable temperatures and less humid
conditions for the end of the week and upcoming weekend. But
temperatures and humidities will probably trend upward again early
next week. The overall pattern seems to favor AOB normal
precipitation for the next week. But totals will be dependent on
the specifics of convection and the inherent uncertainty related
to that.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show an area
of low pressure over the eastern Dakotas, with an associated warm
front extending southeast from southern Minnesota to southern Lake
Michigan early this afternoon. Convection continues to develop
north of the warm front over Minnesota, sending a cirrus shield
northeast over north-central WI. Short range guidance continues to
indicate that these clusters of storms will either weaken or pass
by the area to the west and north later this afternoon due to a
more stable airmass further east. Low level moisture is
increasing, however, over southern WI where cu is becoming more
widespread. As this hot/humid airmass arrives, forecast concerns
revolve around fog potential tonight, and thunderstorm potential
on Wednesday.
Tonight...As a cold front moves east over the far northern Plains,
mid-level heights will continue to rise over the western Great
Lakes. This will keep the low level jet and elevated moisture
transport axis to the northwest of the region, which should
therefore result in mostly clear conditions for much of the
evening. As the surface warm front arrives late, increasing low
level moisture will lead to the threat of fog development.
Guidance has different views on fog potential, but with light
boundary layer winds, some lower visibilities remain possible.
Went with the greatest potential west of the Fox Valley, where the
short range guidance is pin-pointing. Mild lows ranging from the
low to mid 60s.
Wednesday...With steepening low level lapse rates and ample
moisture, progged soundings suggest that any fog and/or low
stratus will evolve into a fairly widespread cu field by mid to
late morning. Convective temps are relatively low tomorrow, in the
mid to upper 80s, and combined with ml capes in the 2-3k j/kg
range, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to
develop with the heat of the day. Guidance actually points towards
areas over and just west of the Fox Valley as having the best
chance of precip, which matches well with the previous forecast,
so only made cosmetic changes. Peak heat indices will approach
100 degrees over parts of central and northeast WI. But with the
clouds and potential rainfall, decided against issuing a heat
advisory, with additional collaboration from neighboring offices.
Highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s away from Lake Michigan.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Precipitation chances Wednesday night are a key aspect of the
forecast because of all the Fourth of July fireworks displays that
are scheduled for dusk. Some storms from the afternoon could
certainly linger into the evening, but the coverage of those
should decrease with the loss of heating, so much of the area
will be dry during the early evening. A better chance for storms
will come later in the night as a cold front approaches and then
begins to push through the area. The front probably won`t arrive
in the area until late--well after the boundary layer begins to
stabilize with the loss of heating. The most likely convective
scenario is for storms to fire/focus along the front west of the
area late Wednesday, then weaken as they push into the area during
the night. They may even fall apart completely before reaching
eastern Wisconsin. The mid-day convective outlook update from SPC
edged back the severe risk a little by pulling the slight risk
west of the area. That seemed reasonable given the time of arrival
of the front. North-central Wisconsin is most at risk of having
storms from the west move in early enough to disrupt fireworks
displays.
Thunderstorms chances Thursday will depend on how quickly the
front clears the area and whether or not the atmosphere gets
completely overturned by storms Wednesday night. The greatest
chance of storms Thursday will be over east-central Wisconsin
(especially if the Wednesday night storms fall apart before
reaching this area). The severe risk looks limited, though some
potential may exist for wet microbursts, especially if the front
is slow to clear the area.
Lower humidities and more seasonable temperatures are
expected for Friday into the upcoming weekend. Overall, the
standard extended forecast initialization grids based on a broad
blend of guidance products seemed to adequate, so few adjustments
were necessary.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Mostly clear skies will rule over the TAF sites overnight. However,
increasing low-level moisture should lead to an increase in fog
and low clouds late tonight, though the areal coverage of MVFR/IFR
conditions remains uncertain. So far there is not much of a
reason to deviate from the previous forecast. Any low visibilities
should improve relatively quickly during the morning, but cigs
may take until mid-morning until they reach vfr status.
Shower and storm chances will increase from about late morning
through the evening hours. Storms in the afternoon will mainly be
due to instability, while storms in the evening will be associated
with an approaching cold front and mid level shortwave. Therefore
rain chances will be higher Wednesday evening and lower during the
afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
746 PM PDT Tue Jul 3 2018
...Updated Air Quality Section...
.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure will move into the region
and provide some cooling through Wednesday. A strong ridge of
high pressure will build into the region and bring hot and dry
conditions for the weekend. Warm and dry weather is expected to
persist into next week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM PDT Tue Jul 3 2018/
.DISCUSSION...
Some cumulus clouds along the sierra mountains, otherwise clear
and dry conditions. Satellite images show smoke aloft over much
of the central CA interior. Some clearing taking place towards
Pacheco pass and Merced due to the onshore marine flow. Some
breezy conditions with local gusts to 35 mph are likely at times
through this evening along the west side of the SJ Valley. Breezy
conditions are also possible over eastern Kern County, including
in the mountain/desert areas.
HRRR smoke models shows some smoke coming down from the County
fire tonight and dispersing in the afternoon due to stronger SW
wind flow. Models indicate an upper level trough will set up off
the Pacific Northwest coast and provide SSW wind flow. This flow
will be onshore maritime and dry flow and mitigate any rapid heat
up. However a ridge of high pressure begins to build from the
desert SW Thursday. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday and
especially over the Kern County Desert on Friday. Further warming
will occur throughout Central California through the weekend due
to the ridge expanding Northward.
Global models prog for some weakening of the ridge over the
Desert SW and Rockies, and hinting for a push of southeasterly
flow with some monsoonal moisture towards the Colorado River Basin
late in the weekend and next week. For now, will keep the
forecast dry through next week with generally warmer than average
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during
the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX for an Air Quality Alert.
On Wednesday July 4 2018... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern
County.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
evening CAZ089>095-098-099.
&&
$$
public...Durfee
avn/fw...Durfee
prev discussion...MV
synopsis...Durfee
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
917 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Most of the convection has moved well west of the forecast area
with a few showers moving in from off the ocean embedded in the
easterly flow. With the upper level low moving west toward the
area will see a break in the showers for a few hours but
developing bands of showers noted on satellite imagery east of the
Gulf Steam will move west toward the coast between 2 and 6 a.m.
The HRRR is indicating those showers will consolidate into a
pretty robust band and move onshore during the sunrise/early
morning period. So overall a pretty quiet night inland with a few
coastal showers for most of the night and then a better chance of
coastal showers and thunderstorms toward sunrise.
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the local fields will remain quiet overnight with VFR
conditions in the prevailing groups. We may see a few showers in
the vicinity of the Northeast Florida Regional Airport (KSGJ) all
night but between 04 and 08 utc showers over the coastal waters
will become more numerous with a better chance of tempo conditions
at the coastal sites. Brief visibility restrictions of 4-6sm in
showers will be possible at KSSI and KSGJ. Between 08 to 12 utc
the showers will become more widespread and will impinge on all of
the coastal areas with brief heavy rainfall possible in all over
the coastal and Jacksonville metro fields. Right now looking at
2-4sm visibility with ceilings of 3-5 kft possible in a tempo
group.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure well to the northeast of the area will maintain an
easterly flow across the coastal waters with no headlines
expected. An upper level disturbance moving westward across the
area will push showers and thunderstorms westward across the
region through Thursday.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk at area beaches through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 74 89 71 / 40 30 60 20
SSI 87 77 86 76 / 20 50 60 30
JAX 90 74 88 73 / 30 50 60 20
SGJ 87 75 86 73 / 30 40 50 30
GNV 91 72 89 71 / 40 30 60 20
OCF 91 72 89 71 / 50 20 60 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Sandrik/Kennedy/Bricker
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
811 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Examination of new runs of the HRRR for tomorrow afternoon
indicate that high temperatues will likely reach the mid 90s
across central and northeast Missouri as well as west central
Illinois. At the same time, dewpoints will likely stay in the mid
70s resulting in heat index readings reaching around 105. Because
of this, went ahead and issued a heat advisory for the remaining
counties just for tomorrow afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise, thunderstorms have diminished around the St. Louis
metro area, but and moved back into southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois. Expect them to diminish the next couple of
hours with the loss of daytime heating.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
South and southeast surface flow continues to result in the
gradual return to the uncomfortably warm and humid airmass.
Afternoon surface instability in conjunction with weak mid to
upper level ascent has given rise to isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Activity has been fairly tame so far.
However, some storms have briefly produced lightning and localized
heavy downpours. DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg over much of
the area suggests that any of the deeper storms will be capable
of gusty winds. given the lack of shear, severe weather is not
anticipated and development will be relatively short-lived.
Storms are likely to quickly dissipate around and after 8pm.
The upper ridge to the east continues to build westward on
Wednesday. Once again, high res guidance picks up on another
weak disturbance around the western periphery of the ridge, along
with the slow moving boundary. As this lifts north, a few showers
and isolated storms will be possible north of I-70, especially
around and northeast of Quincy during the early afternoon.
Main topic will be the heat. Wednesday afternoon/evening
temperatures and dewpoints will combine to result in dangerous
heat indices in excess of 105. Anyone with outdoor plans should
consider taking extra precautions to mitigate heat related
illness.
Maples
.LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
On Thursday, a cold front will approach from the northwest, but
given the speed of the front, most of the area will still experience
highs in the mid-90s with heat index values at or above 105. The
exception may be the northern portion of the CWA where possible
showers and storms associated with the front may dampen highs;
however, the current heat advisory coverage looks appropriate.
For Friday, the cold front will slowly move southward through the
forecast area during the day. Showers and storms are possible along
and south of the front as it pushes through the area, with pops
tapering off from north to south during the afternoon and early
evening. Due to the passing of the front and clouds associated with
the convection, highs will be lower than those of the previous few
days; only reaching the mid- to upper-80s. Behind this front, north-
to-northeasterly flow aloft and at the surface will dominate this
weekend, allowing for a relatively cool and dry air mass to settle
in over the forecast area for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will
top out in the mid-80s with dew points in the upper-50s to lower-60s
for both days, making for pleasant conditions throughout the area.
During the beginning of the work week, the surface ridge will move
off to the east and southerly flow will return to the forecast area.
This will boost high temperatures to around 90 on Monday and the low-
90s on Tuesday, with dew points in the mid-70s both days. This will
create and unstable air mass that will introduce the possibility for
isolated convection both days, but specifics on timing and coverage
will have to wait until that part of the forecast period draws
closer.
Elmore
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018
Scattered thunderstorms affecting the St. Louis area terminals
are expected to diminish across the area by 01Z. Then dry and VFR
conditions are expected through the night. A weak storm system
will move across northern Missouri and west central Illinois early
on Wednesday morning bringing a chance of thunderstorms to KUIN.
Any storm could bring MVFR/possible IFR conditions and brief
downpours. Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the rest of the
terminals. Winds will generally be light outside of storms.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal will diminish by
01Z. Otherwise mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected the rest
of the period with light winds.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Audrain MO-
Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
Gasconade MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau
MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby
MO-Warren MO.
Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for Iron
MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Adams IL-Brown
IL-Pike IL.
Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for Bond
IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1028 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
The heat is on today through Thursday, with unsettled
conditions. Cold front crosses Friday night. High pressure for
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1020 PM Tuesday...
Convection likely finished for the evening and overnight so have
removed any POPs going forward. Reworked the temperatures
overnight for locations that had rain and clouds.
As of 235 PM Tuesday...
Morning debris clouds finally burning off per surface reports
and satellite imagery. This has held our warmup in check,
especially across the Kanawha Valley and along the I77
corridor. Seeing general flat cu field over the eastern
mountains. By around 21Z, we may see some convective initiation
from KCKB-KEKN and down into Webster and Nicholas Counties as
per modest cu enhancement noted on visible imagery in these
areas and latest HRRR runs. Otherwise, current thinking is most
of the remaining forecast area should remain precip free through
tonight.
Atmospheric flow is weak and synoptic scale conditions will not
change much over the next 24 hours. Will see minor 5h height
rise and some influx of warmer air for Wednesday with slight
uptick in max temps expected. Upgraded to Excessive Heat Warning
for central WV and SE OH, with advisories for peripheral
counties for Wednesday, a hot and humid Fourth of July.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
The environment will be dominated by sfc high pressure to the
west, and high pressure ridge aloft during the beginning of the
period. Any shower or storm that develops under afternoon
heating and orographic lift, will dissipate quickly Wednesday
night. The high pressure moves over the Atlantic coast, but
still influenced the local weather with a very loose pressure
gradient and relatively dry conditions.
It will be hot, with lowland temperatures in the mid 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s Thursday. Models suggest no pcpn is
expected through Thursday, although can not rule out a summer
shower or storm during the maximum heat hours. Nevertheless,
heat indices are expected once again to reach the lower 100s
Thursday for when at least a Heat Advisory will be needed.
By Thursday night, a cold front will approach from the west
bringing likely and categorical PoPs through Friday. The cold
front is expected to exit south and east by late Friday night.
Expect numerous showers and storms ahead and along the front
Friday.
High bouyancy and low deep layered shear will keep severe threat
low. However, PWATs will increase to 2.25 inches. Under this
environment, any storm that develops with contain heavy
downpours due to the high moisture content air, and be slow to
move, thereby keeping the threat for localized flash flooding
issues a concern. Will monitor these conditions closely to
provide updates from new guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...
Behind the aforementioned cold front, a broad high pressure,
centered over the Great Lakes region, will expand east and south
to protect the OH VAlley and WV will dry conditions through the
end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 740 PM Tuesday...
VFR continues this evening, although VCTS affecting CKB in the
first 90 minutes of the TAF.
Guidance has not been handling the fog potential well over the
past few nights at all, but did go ahead and commence with
deteriorating conditions late in the overnight with 2-4 hours of
LIFR fog at all sites except BKW, and slightly sooner for EKN
and CKB where some rain has fallen. Otherwise, VFR returns
during the day Wednesday with winds under 10kts.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of fog in question
tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/04/18
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR in scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
Thursday, and then more widespread showers and thunderstorms
Friday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
WVZ005>009-013>015.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ010-011-
016>020-024>031.
OH...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26