Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/28/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
927 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure weakens off the Carolina coast tonight. A cold front crosses the area Thursday. High pressure returns for the weekend and slides offshore by next Monday, bringing hot and mainly dry conditions to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 927 PM EDT Wednesday... Evening storms have left a N-S oriented mesoscale boundary from near Richmond down through Emporia. The warm front has virtually washed out over the CWA with the best moisture/instability remaining focused well to the north. Radar analysis advises keeping chance PoPs in for the evening across central light showers meander eastward toward the I-95 corridor. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest that any rain chances overnight will exist across extreme northern VA/southern MD. The HRRR is trying to sell a few showers over SE VA/NE NC early Thursday morning, so will keep low PoPs in there for now; however, these may be removed as soon as the next update. As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... Latest analysis indicates a weak sfc frontal boundary now washing out across the region. Still not a lot of organized convection but seeing a few storms begin to ramp up along the I-95 corridor. Will keep PoPs mainly in the 30-50% chance range and use "SCATTERED" wording into the evening with highest PoPs along and east of I-95 initially, then with potential for a broken line moving in from the west after 00Z will have chance PoPs for all areas except in the far SE. SPC has backed off on the marginal risk of svr tstms for the local area, though heavy rain in slow moving storms will be a concern through this evening. Best lift/moisture transport progged across northern zones later this evening/overnight so after midnight have only 20% or less except acrs the far N. Lows upr 60 NW to lwr-mid 70s SE. The cold front progged across the local area Thurs morning, slows its eastward movement along the coast Thurs afternoon. Meanwhile, data continues to show drier air filtering in from the west post fropa. Given this scenario, kept chc tstms mainly SE during the afternoon. No svr expected with this activity attm. Increasing sunshine, especially across the west, and rising H85 temps results in temps rising into the lwr 90s most areas west of the bay, 85-90 ern shore areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... Looking like a transition to dry conditions and hotter temperatures as an upper ridge builds east from the lwr/mid MS Valley. Mostly sunny Fri and hot, but with dew pts genly into the mid/upper 60s in the aftn (lwr 70s NE NC). This will make it relatively comfortable despite highs into the lower 90s most areas away from the coast. Mostly clear with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Fri night, mostly sunny and a few degrees hotter for Sat (highs into the lower-mid 90s). Upper height building aloft should keep it dry. Heat indices Sat peak in the upper 90s to around 100 F but again some lowering of aftn dew pts will keep it from being too bad given the time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday... The medium range period will be dominated by the ongoing upper ridge and it`s gradual breaking down late in the period. The consensus of the models has the upper ridge centered across the northern mid-Atlc region Sat night/Sun, then sliding off the coast of NJ to the Delmarva while weakening gradually Mon-Tue. By late Tue/Wed, another upper ridge will be centered from the mid-MS Valley to the OH Valley with weak troughing across the local area. Sfc high pressure will be centered over the local area over the weekend, sliding farther offshore by Mon/Tue with a weak cool front moving in from the NW later Tue/Wed. While it will be hot (and increasingly humid), the pattern does not fit local heat climatology for excessively high temperatures (which at this time of year would be upper 90s to 100+). Highest 850 mb temperatures suggest that the core of hottest wx will likely align a little N of the AKQ CWA from northern VA to NJ and perhaps into southern New England. Locally, expect high temperatures generally in the lower- mid 90s Sun/Mon (hottest over the N/NW interior of the CWA where a few upper 90s will be possible). Highs Tue/Wed will likely be a touch cooler but still mainly into the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. The immediate coast from the eastern shore to VA Beach and NC Outer Banks will likely have some seabreeze influence even on Sun/Mon with highs primarily in the upper 80s to around 90 F. Heat indices look to avg a little over 100 F Sun-Tue but overall probably staying below 105 F. A heat advisory can`t be ruled out but at this time looks like less than a 50% probability. Lows Sat night/Sun night/Mon night/Tue night will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s (with some upper 70s possible across the urban locales). In contrast to the very wet conditions over the past 30-60 days, this period at least "appears" as if it should be devoid of any organized rain until Tue given high heights aloft and what should be a capped atmosphere. Of course, an isolated sea /Bay- breeze storm and a stray storm off the mountains can`t be ruled out but the coverage of this would be minimal. Will keep the forecast mostly dry Sun, with just a slight chance (20%) by Mon primarily over the Piedmont and interior NE NC as the upper ridge begins to slowly break down and shift farther off to the NE of the local area. By Tue and especially Wed will carry chc PoPs by the aftn/evening periods. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Conditions should remain VFR through the next 24 hours, although there is a small chance that MVFR could occur at SBY or PHF if a shower moves overhead this evening. Additional isolated shower/thunderstorm development is possible mainly close to the coast as a weak cold front moves through Thu, but they will be very isolated and unlikely to cause impacts. Outlook...A high pressure ridge builds in behind the cold front Friday. The high moves offshore for the weekend, leading to the small chance for aftn/evening showers and storms each day. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... A quasi-stationary frontal boundary currently extends from a weak low pressure center off the NC coast ENE into the NW Piedmont of NC. Meanwhile, high pressure is situated off the New England coast. The resultant wind flow is generally from the SE 10-15 kt this afternoon which should continue into this evening. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 3-4 ft. The frontal boundary to our south will lift back north as a warm front tonight, with winds becoming SSW 10-15 kt after midnight. Winds then remain SW 10-15 kt Thursday morning/early afternoon ahead of the next cold front approaching from the NW. Both NWPS and Wavewatch guidance indicate a brief period of 5 ft seas out around 20 NM Thursday morning. However, given low confidence will not issue an SCA at this time. Cold front passes Thursday evening with high pressure building in from the north on Friday. Winds will veer to the NW then N but remain less than 15 kt. No SCA anticipated into the upcoming weekend. However, as often happens during the summer, there could be periods in the late afternoon/evening both Saturday and Sunday where S/SE winds increase to around 15 kts on the Bay and adjacent coastal waters. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1030 AM EDT Wednesday... Flood Warnings have been extended for another 12 hrs (through tonight) for the Mattaponi River at Beulahville based on latest gauge readings. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies running 1.0-1.25 ft above normal along the Chesapeake Bay side of the lower MD Eastern Shore and the Potomac side of the Northern Neck will bring water levels near or just above minor flooding thresholds during the early Thursday morning high tide cycle. Additionally, there will be a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches on Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...BMS/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MRD MARINE...JDM HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
827 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 807 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms continue along the I-25 Corridor and northeast plains of CO this evening. Latest HRRR vary quite a bit in the location of thunderstorms, further north earlier, with the latest run targeting the Palmer Divide. Nice inverted-v profile on the KDEN sounding this evening, with a 58 mph gust at the ASOS station at Denver International Airport earlier this afternoon to support it. Do not expect the gusts to be as strong this evening, but gusty winds in the 35-40 mph not out of the question. Will keep the mention of isold tstms in the grids until midnight, then diminishing overnight. Better low level moisture to the north and east of Denver this evening with a dewpoint of 62 at KAKO. There has been some recovery this evening as some of this has advected west/southwest this evening. Shallow as well and will quickly mix out of Denver Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Showers and storms will develop this afternoon and will continue into the evening over far northeastern Colorado. The strongest storms will be north and east of Fort Morgan as good moisture with dew points in the 60s and instability with forecast mixed layer CAPE values near 3000 J/kg will be in that area. These storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and possibly a few large hailstones. Storms across the rest of the CWA could produce gusty winds as well since dew point depressions are starting to approach 70 degrees in spots. Any showers and storms will end by 1 AM tonight and clouds will begin to dissipate. Low temperatures will be about 5-15 above average tonight. The stage is set for record high temperatures on Thursday with most areas east of the foothills reaching 100 degrees or above. Most synoptic scale features will be generally the same but there is reason to increase the high temperatures a couple degrees above a persistence forecast from today. These reasons include northeast Colorado being under the right exit region of a mid level jet streak that will be working its way through the Great Basin area. In addition, a lee cyclone developing over Wyoming will enhance the downslope flow leading to further compressional warming. Am currently thinking the high at DIA will be around 103 degrees but an attempt at the all time record high of 105 degrees will be possible. A few stray showers and storms may develop near the Palmer Divide tomorrow afternoon but with very high dew point depressions it is unlikely that rain will reach the ground. Gusty winds will be the biggest threat from these showers and storms. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Long wave upper trough over the West Coast and western Great Basin Thursday night shows some deamplification as it propagates eastward the northern and central Rocky Mountain region this weekend. Ahead of the trough, models indicate a couple of weak cold fronts slipping south through eastern Wyoming during the day Friday. The first of these boundaries is forecast to slip into nern Colorado late Fri afternoon, the second somewhat stronger front late Friday night. With each arrival, should see an increase in low-level moisture on the plains, especially with the second front according to the NAM and ECMWF. Not so much according to the GFS and Canadian models. Based on the two wetter models, could see sfc based CAPEs by late afternoon anywhere from 2000-3200 j/kg acrs the northeast corner. The NAM once again is the bullish of the two models. Whereas the NAM and GFS both indicate decent 0-3km/0-6km bulk shear/helicity suitable for at least single cell storm formation across the northern third of the CWA plains late Fri afternoon, and acrs remaining ern portions of the CWA during the evening hours within a more humid post-frontal environment. It`s possible the nern corner of the state could see an isolated severe t-storm or two, with large hail the main threat. Can`t rule out localized heavy rainfall with PWs approaching an inch near t he corner by evening. Still some question as to how close storms will come to the Front Range, i.e., the Denver metro area. Latest thinking would warrant mentioning at least a slight chance mainly north of the metro area during the evening hours when east- northeasterly/upslope flow will be deepest. At this time, do not see severe storms developing within the I-25 corridor. Mtn and western slope areas should remain mostly dry and breezy, with low RHs and very warm temps, resulting in high fire danger in some areas. For now, no fire weather highlights. In advance of the upper trough, subtropical moisture pooling over northern Mexico is progged to spread northward over New Mexico on Friday and eventually up across the Texas panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska on Saturday. Eastern Colorado appears to be west of this moisture plume through at least Saturday morning. As the 700-500mb trough axis passes overhead Saturday afternoon, models show another frontal bndry sliding south through nern Colorado, causing the 850- 700mb flow to turn east-southeast. The shift in flow appears to tap into some of the Great Plains moisture plume, advecting it up against the Front Range late in the day. It`s arrival should be marked by a gradual slide in temperature, at least for lower elevations. A moist upslope flow, destabilization with cooling aloft with the passing trough sufficient reasons to go with 10-30 pct PoPs on the plains, and 20-50 pct PoPs for the Front Range mtns and foothills on Sat. Cooler temps are on tap for Sat with readings near to slightly below average. The upper trough flattens and its axis moves just east of Colorado by late Sunday. Beneath the zonal flow aloft, models show more subtropical moisture feeding northward over the central U.S. and curving back into eastern Colorado where it appears to hang out through early next week. This should keep temperatures from warming much above average and keep showers and t-storms in the forecast each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 807 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 VFR conditions will persist through Thursday evening. outflow boundaries from high based showers and thunderstorms still passing through the terminals this evening, but not as strong. Should see northeast winds at KDEN slowly shift to drainage by late this evening. Will not include any tempo groups for gusty outflow winds in the terminals, but potential microburst wind gusts from a passing showers/tstm of 25-30 kts could impact the arrival/departure gates surrounding KDEN. Stray thunderstorms may develop tomorrow afternoon with gusty winds possible again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 425 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Have decided to include fire weather zone 218 in the Red Flag Warning on Thursday. Dry fuel, low rh and strong winds bad enough to included the Medicine Bow and Front Range Mountains in Larimer and Boulder Counties. Also marginal for zone 212 and possible the Palmer Divide, but will let the mid shift have the final say on those areas. Relative humidities will be very low on Thursday with the lowest values approaching 5 percent and most of the CWA under 15 percent. As a lee cyclone develops over Wyoming tomorrow, southwesterly winds will begin to increase with gusts up to 30 mph possible at higher elevations. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for fire zones that have dry fuels. These fire zones are listed below. Furthermore, stray showers and storms tomorrow could produce winds up to 40 mph at times mainly near the Palmer Divide and over Park county. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ211- 213>215-217-218-238. && $$ UPDATE...Cooper SHORT TERM...Danielson LONG TERM...Baker AVIATION...Cooper FIRE WEATHER...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
919 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Updated forecast to add thunderstorms to the showers late tonight in the southern Red River Valley. The NAM has 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and the SREF has 1500-2000 J/kg. Both indicate that effective shear will be around 40 kts late tonight as well. However, will the isentropic lift in the 900-700 mb layer be enough to fire some storms? It appears to be enough for the HRRR and NAM Nest, which have some thunderstorms in the region. The HRRR has jumped around with placement the last couple of runs, though. Will keep chances at 20% for now. The SPC has the far southwestern zones in a marginal risk tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Stable air mass has settled into our CWA from the west behind a cold front, with main shortwave trough/PV anomaly east. Near frontal zone in our far east we still have a window for thunderstorm development and axis of 1500-2000 J/KG ML CAPE and 30-50kt effective shear could support a few strong or marginally severe storms before sunset. Trend would be for this threat to transition further east over the next few hours as front continues to move out of our area. Some CAMs are still hinting at redevelopment in our northwest, but if there were to happen it would be before sunset and very weak (most likely light showers). Tonight: Low level southeast return flow is advertised as cold front washes. Region of ascent associated with weak mid level impulse and WAA may support showers or thunderstorms in our south late tonight and tomorrow morning. Thursday: Low level southeast flow will continue to increase moisture/instability across our CWA, with baroclinic zone/stalled front over our west and south. Instability increases thorugh the day, and by the afternoon ML CAPE may range from 3000-4000 J/KG. Strong deep layer shear is expected to be in place, but better chances remain in the evening/overnight period. If CAP weakens and activity develops earlier we could have strong to severe storms in our west or south and some CAMs actually support isolated to scattered activity earlier ahead of main complex that would be expected Thursday night. Activity could be discrete/supercellular in nature early on and this may need to be monitored, the question is if there is enough organized forcing before Thu evening. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Period begins with the potential for ongoing convection, with a warm frontal boundary situated somewhere around the ND/SD border. An embedded strong shortwave trough is also forecast to move through the region late Thursday into early Friday, and with plenty of CAPE available a supercellular convective mode featuring 2 inch hail and a few tornadoes could very well be favored. As evening shifts to overnight, a stout LLJ of up to 40 kts would likely transition the mode to an MCS with damaging wind and heavy rain becoming the main threat. On Fri cold FROPA during the afternoon could be accompanied by more scattered tstm activity, with this feature becoming nearly stationary to the south. Thus, any activity on Sat should be focused more south of the forecast area possibly clipping part of SE ND and WC MN. Most of Sun looks drier before the next front approaches during the eve or at night. Ridging will try to build early next week, but we`ll have to watch the extent to which encroaching jet stream energy can dampen its effects. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the next 24 hrs. A few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm may develop late tonight/early tomorrow near FAR, but did not include in this TAF set due to high uncertainty. Otherwise, strong/severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon...and likely Thursday night. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Knutsvig SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...Knutsvig
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
838 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 834 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Updated forecast to include the potential for fog tonight given the low level moisture in place, and fairly light winds with the warm front located across northern Kansas. Uncertainty exists on how widespread or dense fog may be with varying cloud cover toward morning and will need to monitor. UPDATE Issued at 807 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Temperatures have been slow to drop off this evening and heat index values are still near 105 degrees this hour across north central Kansas. As we lose daytime heating with sunset, temperatures will continue to cool and the heat advisory which was in effect today has been allowed to expire. The heat will ramp up again Thursday afternoon with heat indices again forecast near 107 degrees and a Heat Advisory is in effect Thursday for the high heat indices. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Cumulus development has lead to scattered-broken skies for parts of central Nebraska. This may keep temperatures down just a bit for some locations in Nebraska, but it appears that the heat advisory is still on-track for our Kansas counties. This evening, the HRRR shows development of a few air-mass thunderstorms, but its placement is it develops the storms in the areas that are currently cloud-free. Other models don`t really support this, so I believe the area will stay dry until later overnight. Late tonight, models continue to indicate the potential for a few thunderstorms as a subtle wave tracks across Nebraska. For PoPs, I used a blend of the SREF/HREF ensembles, which keeps the highest probabilities generally along and south of Interstate 80 in Nebraska. Shear is pretty minimal, so severe weather is unlikely. Lingering cloud cover from overnight convection introduces a little uncertainty into the temperature forecast for tomorrow. Right now, I think we will still see enough sun and warm-air advection for temperatures to reach the 90s generally north of Highway 136 in Nebraska and the 100s for areas to the south. Models also indicate very deep mixing and southerly winds gusting over 30 MPH in our warmest areas (far southern NE and northern KS). This will serve to mix out dewpoints a bit, ultimately reducing the heat index slightly in these areas. Nevertheless, it will be hotter across most of the area tomorrow, so it makes sense to issue a heat advisory for the areas that will get closest to a 105 degree heat index. Gusty winds continue Thursday night, which will keep low temperatures from falling much lower than the low 70s. Friday may approach heat advisory criteria once again in eastern portions of the forecast area. That said, dewpoints will be even lower, so we will wait and see how much our dewpoints mix out over the area on Thursday. Chances for thunderstorms move into northwestern portions of the forecast area Friday evening as an approaching upper trough deepens over the Rockies. An isolated strong storm is possible, but the best threat for severe storms appears to be over northern and western Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 The approaching trough will push a cold front into the area on Saturday, which, depending on how convection plays out Friday night, will move through the area during the day on Saturday. This will bring us our best chances for rain and thunderstorms over the next week. Convective details are always shaky 3-4 days in advance, but increased deep-layer shear would support at least some threat for severe weather. The passage of the cold front will bring a temporary reprieve from the heat Saturday into early next week, but the upper level ridge is expected to strengthen overhead by the middle of next week...likely leading to another heatwave. The model consensus continues to show low PoPs Sunday through Tuesday as we remain in zonal to southwesterly flow aloft. That said, predictability is relatively low as there isn`t much of a consistent signal amongst the models at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Overall looking for mainly VFR conditions for the TAF period, but that being said, a warm frontal boundary will gradually lift north from Kansas into southern Nebraska tonight. Moisture pooling along the front combined with a light easterly wind component may lead to patchy fog for a few hours tonight/early Thursday. Short term models are rather hit or miss on whether or not convection will develop tonight with models trending north of the terminals attm. Do to low confidence in precip, the aviation forecast remains dry. Forecast soundings indicate deep mixing by mid day Thursday with potential for wind gusts over 25kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ064-076-077- 083>087. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ UPDATE...Fay SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Fay
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
548 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Upslope flow over Colorado will assist in the development of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon along the Front Range and the Palmer Divide. Some of these storms may survive long enough to move into our far northwest counties this evening producing strong wind gusts. Warm temperatures aloft will likely limit coverage this evening. The HRRR continues to develop some thunderstorms further east along the weak cold front, however confidence is not high since the latest run for Composite Reflectivity shows a storm near Colby in 15 minutes but currently the CWA is void of clouds. The main issue for the next two days will be temperatures. This afternoon, east to southeast winds brought in higher dewpoints to Norton, Graham and Sheridan counties resulting in a dramatic rise in Heat Indices over 105F. Temperatures Thursday will be 5-10 degrees higher than today, but the highest dewpoints will have shifted into Nebraska, and forecast Heat Indices tomorrow will be 98-104F. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 The upper-level ridge that has been responsible for high temperatures during the week will give way to a longwave trough and several associated shortwave troughs late this week. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances and decrease high temperatures into the upper 80s for the Central High Plains area through the weekend and early next week. A weak cold front passing through the Tri-State Region Friday evening will provide the greatest chance for thunderstorms. However, strong upper-level winds will provide enough forcing for ascent and southerly low-level winds will bring increasing low-level moisture which will modestly modulate instability enough to keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast at least through Monday. Even as upper-level ridging builds back up Tuesday onwards and high temperatures climb back into the mid 90s across the CWA, a few stray afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out heading into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 542 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 VFR conditions are expected at GLD and MCK through the 00Z TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear with light northeast winds this evening transitioning to a southerly direction by 18Z and possibly increasing after 12Z with some gustiness possible as the lee trough along the front range begins to reintensify resulting in a stronger pressure gradient and stronger winds across the central high plains region. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DLF LONG TERM...JRP AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Overall no significant changes to the short term forecast through Thursday. Latest GOES16 visbible imagery indicates scattered to occasionally broken SC/CU across much of the forecast area this afternoon. Overall trend has been for clouds to thin in areal coverage a bit which has allowed temperatures to climb into the 75 to 80 degree range. Surface winds have recentluy turned easterly along the lakeshore with temperatures there closer to 70. still a fair amount of low-level moisture with surface Tds mainly in the 60s. The majority of the short-range guidance insists on developing a few showers across the far north or northeast Wisconsin late this afternoon into early evening. Easterly onshore flow has finally developed over the eastern Oconto and Marinette counties with mainly westerly winds further inland. This will allow for a period of boundary layer convergence across the northeast portion of the forecast area into the early evening. Although MLCAPEs in this part of the state are generally less than 250 J/kg, RAP suggests a gradual increase in instablity in this region toward evening, thus it is not inconceievable to still see a shower pop-up north of Green Bay and east of highway 55. Will therefore maintain slight chance POPS in that region until early evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be the rule overnight with lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Could be some patchy fog also developing after 06Z Thursday given light winds under mainly partly cloudy skies. Looks like a nice day on Thursday as upper heights continue to build over the state and weak surface high pressure moves across the region. saw no good reason to deviate from the CONSSHORT blend with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s. .LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Mean flow headed into the weekend to generally consist of a large upper ridge over the eastern Pacific, an upper trough over the Rockies and another upper ridge over the eastern CONUS. This pattern will bring hot, humid, unsettled weather into northeast WI as prevailing southwest winds aloft pull plenty of gulf moisture northward. By the end of the weekend into early next week, the upper trough is forecast to broaden and extend from the Pacific NW to the eastern Great Lakes. This change will allow temperatures to cool a bit with less humidity. Models then suggest that upper ridging would rebuild over the central CONUS toward the middle of next week with another uptick in temperatures. Concerns continue as to whether any convection may develop between the 8H warm front lifting north of WI and a surface warm front approaching WI from the south. While instability will be plentiful, the atmosphere appears to be capped (plenty of CIN/warm 7H temperatures), thus it may prove difficult for storms to develop. However, this does not rule out elevated thunderstorms and this potential does exist, thus have opted to go with a small chance of showers/storms across north-central and parts of central WI after midnight. Min temperatures to range from the lower 60s north/near Lake MI, middle to upper 60s for central/east-central WI. This small chance of showers/storms would continue into Friday morning as the surface warm front lifts northeast through WI. Once the front clears WI, look for a hot/humid afternoon as 8H temperatures climb into the +23 to +28C range. This would take max temperatures into the lower to middle 90s away from Lake MI with a few locations over central WI possibly reaching the upper 90s. Add in dew points in the lower to middle 70s and we will be looking at heat indices > 100 degrees over central/east-central WI. Assuming these values hold, a Heat Advisory would eventually be needed. Warm/muggy conditions are expected for Friday night as any convection to be located north (warm front) or west (cold front). Min temperatures to only be in the lower to middle 70s over most of northeast WI (perhaps upper 60s right along Lake MI). The cold front is progged to push across the Upper MS Valley on Saturday. Instability will build over WI during the day with a weakening cap during the afternoon. Strongest shear is forecast to be located along the frontal boundary, thus any strong to severe storms would appear to hold off until Saturday evening. Based on latest model timing, will bring an increasing pop to central WI Saturday afternoon. Max temperatures for Saturday will be hot, although not as high as Friday as clouds to increase during peak heating. Look for readings in the middle 80s north/near Lake MI, upper 80s to lower 90s south. The cold front pushes into WI Saturday night, accompanied by a trailing, but weakening shortwave trough. Even though instability will diminish a bit post-sunset, shear will increase and allow some thunderstorms to become strong to severe. Damaging winds would be the primary threat, although large hail is also possible, especially during the evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible as PW values approach 2" and this could lead to localized flooding. Showers/storms to persist into Sunday morning, especially over eastern WI until the cold front exits the area. Skies should then begin to clear from west to east Sunday afternoon as weak high pressure begins to move into the region. Max temperatures Sunday to cool post-frontal with readings in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees north/near Lake MI, mainly lower 80s south. Sunday night to be quiet and cooler as the high pressure passes to our south. By Monday, northeast WI best back into a south- southwest flow aloft as the high pressure to be located over the eastern Great Lakes. Models begin to differ with regards to the movement of another cold front. The GFS is much faster than either the ECMWF or GEM, so prefer the latter solution for now. Max temperatures on Monday to range from around 80 degrees near Lake MI, lower to middle 80s elsewhere. Toward the middle of next week, the mean flow is forecast to turn from near zonal across the CONUS, to a western U.S. upper trough/ central U.S. upper ridge. This scenario would keep most convection to our west and allow for another shot of very warm/humid air to overspread WI. The GFS remains at odds with other models with a frontal boundary locked in place over the region). Have followed the consensus solution for now which brings mainly slight chance wording for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should be above normal with max temperatures in the middle to upper 80s (away from Lake MI). && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 VFR flight conditions expected through Thursday evening, with the possible exception of a few hours of MVFR or IFR ground fog between 09 and 12z Thursday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....ESB LONG TERM......AK AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
217 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .Near term.../through Friday/... The region will be between high pressure to the South and a trough of low pressure to the North this period. This will result in a continued light West/Southwest low level flow. Each afternoon, diurnal instability will lead to the development of convection. In this pattern the East coast sea breeze will be able to push inland, but likely not much further than I95, while the Gulf sea breeze should be able to push well into NE FL. These sea breezes will help to support development and direct movement of the convective activity this afternoon. In addition, the proximity of the troughing will aid in convective potential over inland GA as well. Near term model depicting energy pushing South from this boundary through the evening continuing convective potential through around midnight. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal this period, with heat indices rising into the 100 to around 105 range each afternoon. && .Short Term.../Friday night through Sunday/... High pressure will be East of the region this period, resulting in a mostly light Southerly low level flow. This flow should provide additional moisture for convection. Convection will be initiated each afternoon by diurnal instability, with ample moisture available. The convection will be aided by sea breeze boundaries near the coasts. In general expect a higher than normal coverage in afternoon/evening storms this period. Most convective activity will dissipate in the evening hours, but given the expected increased coverage, could see a few storms linger past midnight. Highs will trend near normal this period, with heat indices peaking each afternoon near to slightly above 100. && .Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/... Surface high pressure ridge will build from the East to the Northeast this period. The prevailing low level flow will be from the South, with input from the both the East coast and Gulf sea breezes. Convection will initiate each afternoon and evening due to diurnal instability with additional focus on sea breeze boundaries. Convection will largely dissipate during the evenings, with partial overnight clearing. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected this period, with afternoon heat indices around 100 to a little above. && .Marine... Surface high pressure will be South of area waters with troughing to the North through Friday. The high will then be to the East through the weekend, and toward the Northeast early next week. The potential for thunderstorms will exist through this period. && Sea breeze front convergence over north Florida and southeast Georgia has been somewhat capped with a few cells blowing though the cap near KGNV and over the Ocala National Forest area. Ceilings near CBs are running in the 3 to 5 kft range and expect that to continue this afternoon into this evening with convection in tempo groups for all fields between 18 and 24 utc. We then take a bit of a breather after the loss of diurnal heating as a squall line forms in central Georgia and drops southward. Both the HRRR and ARW models have this feature even though NAM20 doesn`t model it well. Looking for that line to drop through KSSI between 02-06 utc, the JAX metro fields between 04 and 08 utc and Gainesville between 06 to 09 utc. As the line will be bowing as it comes through the area looking for strong potential wind gusts of 25 to 40 kts at all fields but pulled it back to 15 to 30 kts at KGNV as the line begins to break up. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 94 75 95 / 30 40 50 50 SSI 78 92 78 92 / 20 40 20 30 JAX 76 94 76 95 / 20 60 30 50 SGJ 77 93 75 92 / 20 20 20 40 GNV 75 93 75 93 / 30 60 10 60 OCF 74 90 75 92 / 30 70 20 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1105 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018 NAM forecast soundings suggest that thunder will continue to be a possibility as the cold front sinks south through the area overnight, and a slight chance of thunder has been expanded to follow the front. UPDATE Issued at 952 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018 Only minor changes were made to blend evening obs into the night`s forecast. UPDATE Issued at 620 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018 Cooler and more stable air over eastern KY prevented more significant convection today. With peak heating passed, substantial development is unlikely in most areas for the time being. There are some showers and thunderstorms upstream of our southwest counties, and that area stands the greatest chance at precip in the next hour or two. Mesoscale models still suggest a bit of activity along the cold front which will be dropping in from the north during the night, and a bit higher POP (no higher than chance category) has been continued to be used with this feature. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 315 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018 The latest scans of the WSR-88D radar shows numerous to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon. In general this activity has been weaker and lesser rain rates given the lack of better instability and moisture in place this afternoon. However, in coordination with WFO LMK will keep the FFA up through 8 PM to deal with any minor/isolated flood threats. The HRRR has been showing a stronger band of storms moving through the Lake Cumberland region at times this afternoon, but the latest radar trends shows this developed further west where instability and moisture was greatest. This will likely move southeast of eastern Kentucky as it follows the better instability and moisture across Tennessee. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will wane through the evening, but a slight uptick is possible as a cold front pushes across the region through the night into early Thursday. This will push south and upper level wave will push east giving way to clearing skies through the day on Thursday. The bad news is the front will provide little in the way of relieve from the warm weather, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s Thursday afternoon. Given the clearing skies and potential for cooler valley temperatures expect the possibility for mainly river valley fog on Thursday night into Friday morning. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018 Strong ridge will build in on Friday and Saturday, allowing heat and humidity to build over the region. The area should stay capped on Friday and Saturday with heights at their peak. However, as the ridge breaks down a bit by Sunday into next week, afternoon shower and storm chances will begin to enter the picture. Lack of shear should limit severe threat and keep activity in the pulse up and down mode. Warm and humid conditions will continue right into the 4th of July. Heat index values still look on target to reach around 100 Saturday into next week and will continue to highlight in the HWO. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 922 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018 As the period started, there were pockets of MVFR conditions (mainly near I-64), with generally VFR conditions elsewhere. Most precipitation had tapered off. A cold front will drop south through the region during the night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front. A deterioration to largely IFR is forecast with the arrival and passage of the front. A few showers/thunderstorms could linger into Thursday near the TN and VA borders, but most locations will be dry during the day. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR early in the afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
952 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Main issue for tonight remains the thunderstorm threat which would extend into Thursday morning. A quasi-stationary boundary stretches from north-central KS across west-central and south- central MO and into southern IL late this evening. Evening soundings from SGF and TOP show very steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 degC/km which is contributing to a reservoir of bigtime MUCAPE of 5000+ J/KG roughly along and south of the boundary. We are beginning to see an increase in clouds in the 4000-5000 foot layer stretching from NW MO thru central MO into southern IL within a region of 850 mb moisture convergence and WAA associated with an anticyclonically curved branch of the stronger flow. The previous guidance and various runs of the operational and experimental HRRR continue to support the expectation that thunderstorms will develop/blossom within this region of lift from north central thru central and into east central MO during the overnight hours and move southeastward. Deep layer shear of 30-40 kts along with the aforementioned lapse rate and MUCAPE values would support a severe threat, primarily large hail, however storm mergers and merging cold pools would also support a damaging wind threat. The longvity of storms into Thursday morning is a bit in question, but I would think at this time at least until 15-16z. Glass && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Main focus for tonight will be on possibility of convection late tonight into the day on Thursday. Guidance generally agrees that retreating warm front will be the focus for at least scattered thunderstorm activity in response to low-level warm/moist advection. While there is a general agreement in this scenario, as always the specifics are more difficult to pin down. Some CAMs including the NAMNest develop convection earlier and further west/southwest while the HRRRX and low-res NAM delay the onset, with convection more focused closer to the Mississippi River. Went with a blend of these two camps and added likely PoPs for late tonight toward dusk roughly along a KMYJ>>KCPS line. Atmosphere is expected to be very unstable tonight, and with sufficient deep-layer shear (~30 knots), at least somewhat organized convection seems possible. Very steep midlevel lapse rates within the hail growth zone suggests hail will be the main threat at least with the initial storms. If cold pools amalgamate, a south/southeastward propagating cluster(s) of storms would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts as well. Convective trends are more uncertain during the day on Thursday. Best guess is for overnight activity to continue into the early morning hours moving southeast along the boundary. As the low-level jet weakens, may see a lull or a complete lack of activity by mid- late morning. Additional storms would then be possible in the afternoon in close proximity to the retreating warm front along the eastern edge of the cap. Another possible scenario is for an outflow boundary from the morning storms to initiate scattered activity, though this may be more focused to the south/southeast of the CWA if this indeed occurs. High temperatures on Thursday are certainly a challenge with quite a bit of uncertainty, especially along/east of the Mississippi River. With frontal boundary in the vicinity and the possibility of convection and debris clouds, many areas may escape the first day of this upcoming heat wave. Further to the west, portions of central Missouri look like they should reach into the mid 90s for highs with peak heat index readings around 105-108F. Gosselin .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 (Thursday Night - Saturday) Unlike Thursday, have a higher confidence in high temperatures and peak heat index readings across much of the area on Friday. Mid/upper level ridge axis should be located across the Mississippi Valley on Thursday before slowly moving eastward with time. Some slight uncertainty on Saturday as ridge moves into the Ohio Valley with slightly cooler 850-hPa temperatures advecting in from the south with a weaker cap in place for diurnal convection. Slightly deeper mixing however is progged for Saturday compared to Friday along with lower surface dewpoints. Therefore expect highs on Saturday to be near persistence with heat index values each afternoon generally in the 100-110 range. Going heat headlines largely looked good, but did add remaining counties in Illinois for intensity due to the 105+ heat index values expected both on Friday and Saturday afternoon. (Sunday - Next Wednesday) Little to no change in the general upper-air pattern across the CONUS through the middle of next week. Mid/upper level ridging is forecast to extend further westward and nearly reach the west coast. Hot/humid weather should continue through the end of the forecast period (and perhaps beyond) with isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity possible each day/evening due to weak capping. Some short- term relief however still appears likely in the Sunday/Monday time frame as a cold front attempts to move through the CWA. Temperatures are expected to drop back into the low 90s on Sunday and Monday, but with dewpoints in the 70s, peak heat index values still may be above 100 degrees in some locations. Did not elect to extend the heat advisory in time at this point because of uncertainties with the timing of the cold front and potential for thunderstorms and convective debris clouds, but advisories may need to be extended if confidence in 100+ heat index values rises. . Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Tranquil conditions are expected across the region through mid evening. During the late evening and overnight hours we should see scattered thunderstorms develop in a northwest-southeast axis across central and eastern MO, with this axis shifting both south and east with time during the early morning hours on Thursday. Some of the storms could be rather strong and contain hail, however pinning down the exact location and a direct terminal impact is difficult at this time. Current thinking is that the threat of thunderstorms will diminish across the region from mid- late Thursday morning. Outside of any thunderstorms, VFR flight conditions should prevail. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Tranquil conditions are expected for the terminal through this evening. During the overnight hours we should see scattered thunderstorms develop in a northwest-southeast axis and these are expected to impact KSTL. Some of the storms could be rather strong and contain hail, however I have been conservative at this time in the TAF due to uncertainty in exact location of the strongest storms. Current thinking is that the threat of thunderstorms will diminish by mid morning on Thursday. Outside of any thunderstorms, VFR flight conditions should prevail. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 10 PM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO- Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 10 PM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Monroe IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 10 PM CDT Saturday for Bond IL-Fayette IL-Marion IL-Montgomery IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1041 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front and area of low pressure near the coast will weaken and move northeast tonight. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday, move into the area Thursday night and then stall late week into the weekend. High pressure will pass to the north over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1030 PM...Adjusted POPs for next few hours to just slight chance for coastal plains except chance for SW sections. Did leave 20% in for all zones overnight with latest HRRR and NAM still indicating possible isolated activity with shortwave overnight. Rest of forecast on track. /Previous discussion/ As of 230 PM Wed...Latest sfc analysis shows weak frontal boundary near the southern portion of the forecast area this afternoon, with weak low off the NC coast. Front is expected to wash out overnight with surface low weakening as well. Latest radar imagery shows some scattered showers across Eastern NC this afternoon, with best coverage still near the Albemarle Sound region. The bulk of the precip remains well to the west over Eastern TN and Western NC. Challenging precip forecast for the rest of this afternoon into tonight, with models depicting a variety of solutions. Could see a slight increase in coverage this afternoon and early evening, but remaining widely scattered. Latest mesoanalysis shows SB CAPE values around 2000 J/kg with less than 20 kt bulk shear. Think any threat for the next several hours will be the potential for heavy downpours with PWATs still around 2 inches. Most guidance keeps the area mostly dry overnight, with the GFS still brining in the best chance for showers. Shortwave energy expected to increase overnight, which could be enough to support scattered showers and a few storms. Though most models show the precip well west weakening moving across Central NC and dissipating before reaching our area tonight. Will keep sc pops, though not expecting much coverage. Mild with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday...A cold front will approach from the WNW Thu, with bulk of upper level energy remaining north of the area. Typical summertime type day and humid with isolated to widely scattered showers. Will continue slight chance pops in the morning, with slightly increasing chances in the afternoon. Instability looks slightly more impressive, though little shear expected, and PWATs also drop to less than 2 inches. Low level thickness values and SSW flow support temps above normal, with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Hot temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, some areas along Hwy 17 could see heat index values around 105 degrees during the afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed for a few counties. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wed...Unsettled pattern continues into Thu night. An approaching upper level shortwave with several embedded vort waves will pass through Thu night, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest surface wind forecast from GFS/ECMWF seems to suggest the front will stall and dissipate along the south coast rather than continuing moving off the coast to the southeast. Time sections show support for this, with no drying out of the boundary layer seen. Will taper off PoPs in the NW counties Fri evening, then continue slight chance to chance PoPs SW of a line from Manteo to New Bern to Jacksonville from late Thu night through the day Friday. Lingering moisture in the SW half of the forecast area Sat through Sun with several vort centers passing through so kept slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for mainly diurnal convection. The typical summertime pattern redevelops Monday into Tue with the mid-state surface trof and offshore high and mainly diurnal convection. Highs through the period will be in the lower to mid 90s inland with mid 80s along the Outer Banks. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the Outer Banks. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through 00Z Friday/... As of 745 PM Wednesday...VFR expected to prevail most of TAF period with return of SSW flow in warm sector conditions. Brief sub-VFR possible in scattered showers over western sections this evening and in scattered TSTMs same area Thu afternoon. Cloud cover and light SSW winds expected to limit fog overnight but cannot rule out brief period of MVFR VSBYs mainly 10Z-12Z. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 3 am Wed...Sub- VFR Thu night and Sat-Sun in scattered thunderstorms. Mostly dry/VFR Fri. Surface winds SW around 10 kts Thu, light and variable Fri, E to SE around 5 kts Sat and Sun. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 1030 PM changes to winds/seas with update. /Previous discussion/ As of 230 PM Wed...Latest obs show variable winds across the waters, generally NE to SE 5-15 kt north of Lookout and N/NW 5-10 kt south. Seas still slow to subside across the northern waters this afternoon, still 3-5 ft. Allowed SCA to expire at 17z. Weak low expected to dissipate overnight as boundary to the south washes out. Winds become more uniform and S/SW 5-15 kt this evening and overnight. A cold front will approach the waters from the WNW Thu. Increasing SW winds through the day, 10-15 kt in the morning increasing to 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet early, building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon, highest south of Oregon Inlet. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 310 am Tue...Winds go southwest Thu night. A weak front will pass through Friday with high pressure passing to the north this weekend. Seas north of Ocracoke will average 3-5 feet through Thu night and 2-3 Fri and Sat. Seas south of Ocracoke will average 2-4 through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC/JBM/CQD NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JBM/CQD/HSA MARINE...JBM/CQD/HSA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
742 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Main concern near term is convective potential to the northwest during the evening and then again into Thursday. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a narrow corridor of cape over 1000 J/kg over the northwest cwa. The HRRR continue to generate some isolated convection into that region of the area though about 00z. Covergence is weak along surface boundary and believe little in the way of development should occur. We will hold onto the slight chance PoP through the rest of the afternoon. Clouds do appear more cumuliform over the area so we should see erosion this evening. Along with light winds and higher dewpoints we should see some fog develop later tonight. THis may linger into early Thursday morning. Still a question as to how widespread it will be and will mention patchy/areas of fog late mainly to the east. Some instability return into the day Thursday with various HIRES models develop some isolated convection developing mainly Thursday afternoon. This lifts north and weakens by evening. We will hold onto the slight chance PoP for this possibility as well. Temperatures should warm through the 80s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Heat...heavy rain and severe weather threats return mainly Friday through Saturday. Models in general agreement with MCS development over North Dakota Thursday night and traveling into northern MN late. This may affect mainly the northern fringe of central MN zones. Mid level warming is quite impressive with the GFS driving +14c to +16c 700 mb temperatures ahead of the surface cold front and upper trough into Friday. This should limit overall convective potential into Friday evening. High temperatures should warm through the mid 90s ahead of the front. The ground remains very moist so it may be difficult to attain the century mark. With forecast dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will likely exceed 105F in a few locations Friday afternoon. Confidence level for heat headlines continues to increase and will likely be issued with the next forecast package. The severe weather threat will remain Friday night with high CAPE values forecast and increasing shear as the upper trough approaches. Both the GFS and ECMWF trend a short wave into the area Friday night and will likely be strong enough to erode the mid level cap. Timing could be tricky however, and trends of clouds and any convective outflow will modulate overall severe weather threat through Saturday. Does appear the front may have slowed some and is progged only into central MN by Saturday morning. This should allow for redevelopment of convection into the afternoon, barring significant MCS earlier. Along with severe weather, heavy rain will also be a good likelihood with PW`s 2-3 standard deviations above normal with the system. Will have to continue to monitor flood potential through the weekend. The front should exit the area Sunday which could linger into Monday. Blended guidance continues to trend rather wet into next week. The models to diverge on timing of western trough movement into Wednesday however. The cwa will remain near the surface front/baroclinic zone which should stall south over Iowa into next week. It will lift back north again into midweek and should focus increasing convective threat into at least the first half of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 742 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018 VFR this evening. Some patchy fog may develop east of I-35 tonight where winds will be light with clear skies persisting for most of the night. Some showers or storms may build toward western MN late tonight, but confidence and coverage are low enough to keep them from the TAFs for now. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. TSRA possible overnight. Wind SW 15G30kts. SAT...MVFR possible. Occasional TSRA. Wind WSW 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind light. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM... AVIATION...BORGHOFF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving from Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley will lift a warm front through the area tonight followed by a cold front on Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Ohio Valley assumes a position off the east coast this weekend into the middle of next week. During this time frame, a warm front moves through the region on Saturday, followed by an approaching cold front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main adjustment with this update was to increase PoPs across NJ from about the I-195 corridor north. The showers and thunderstorms to our west are coming together as discussed. The HRRR has been more progressive the last few hours with the precipitation as it moves through the forecast area. Expect the heaviest showers and isolated thunderstorms between 07z and 12z. Previous discussion... Mid afternoon surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over lower MI. The attendant warm front extends to the southeast into WV and VA while a trailing cold front extends to the southwest across the Midwest states. Meanwhile, an upper trough was evident on satellite imagery over the Great Lakes region. The low is expected to track eastward across the eastern Great Lakes tonight and into western New York by early morning while the upper trough tracks to the east- southeast into PA. Enhanced southerly flow ahead of the surface low and low-level trough will continue to advect moisture and warmer air downstream into the region. This setup will yield cloudy skies and several rounds of precipitation (although there are currently some breaks in the dense overcast cloud cover across eastern MD this afternoon). Showers thus far today have been isolated in coverage, very light in intensity and confined to locations along and west of I-95. Expect this activity to gradually ramp up in intensity and coverage during the early to mid evening but still remain confined to western zones. Some of the showers this evening may contain heavy downpours across Berks County, the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos as elevated instability arrives in concert with a plume of high low-level theta- e air. There may be a brief lull in the precip late this evening before the main show arrives overnight. CAMs have been in decent agreement with convection organizing over central PA/MD this evening and moving into our far western zones in eastern PA after midnight. This activity will be aided by forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching mid-level trough and isentropic lift induced by an impressive 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. The main concern is for locally heavy rainfall across our far western zones in eastern PA late tonight with PWATs increase to around 2" and increasing elevated instability through the night. Additionally, there is a signal in the models for backbuilding storms with Corfidi vectors become light for a brief period late tonight. QPF output from the HRRR and RAP in particular has been rather persistent for the last several runs in showing a mesoscale band of heavy rainfall amounts of 2-3"+ across Berks County, the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos. A Flash Flood Watch was considered but ultimately uncertainty was rather high and there is concern that both rapid refresh models are a bit overdone with the earlier convective rainfall late this afternoon and early this evening (which has yet to materialize). The lesser concern is severe weather in our far western zones of eastern PA and northeastern MD mainly overnight when instability and kinematic parameters are maximized. Forecast hodographs are impressive, especially overnight owing to the strong veering flow in the low-levels. There is a potential for rotating updrafts though the risk of tornadoes is highly conditional on convection being rooted close to the boundary layer (not currently expected). && .SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Low pressure will pass to our north across Upstate NY and New England tomorrow while the system`s cold front progresses eastward through the region. Leftover showers across northeastern PA and northern NJ around daybreak should exit the area by mid morning. A lull in the precip is likely for the remainder of the morning. Breaks in the clouds that are expected to develop will allow for pockets of strong heating and boundary-layer destabilization during peak heating hours. Accordingly, expect showers and storms to initiate in the early afternoon. CAMs indicate convection will be rather scattered in nature despite convergence (albeit modest) along the cold front could provide a focus for convection. This activity is expected to move east toward the coastal plain by late afternoon. Forecast highs range from the upper 70s in the southern Poconos to around 90F in the urban I-95 corridor and interior Delmarva. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Summary... The main weathermaker will be a deep layer ridge becoming established across the eastern seaboard, leading to above normal heat and humidity, beginning on Friday with the potential to last into the middle of next week. The heat will be punctuated by showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday through the Fourth of July. Heat... The majority of the guidance has signaled this event over the last several days. The upper-level jet moves well north into eastern Canada, while positive 500 hPa height anomalies ~210 meters move across the US-Canadian border, and 850 hPa temps approach 4C above average centered on Saturday thru Monday. There is the potential for maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees beginning Friday and lasting through Tuesday. In particular, confidence is increasing for highs in the mid 90s Saturday and Sunday, based on mixing to 5-6 kFT per model soundings, as well as the upper jet placement well to the north, which will limit debris clouds from convection around the periphery of the upper-level ridge. Regarding Heat Index, the question is afternoon dew points, taking into account the boundary layer mixing of dryer air aloft to the surface. It looks as though there will be a tendency for drying on Friday and Saturday afternoons, based on the position of the surface trough and resultant wind field, which should hold apparent temperatures close to high temperatures (low-mid 90s). For Sunday, mixing of dryer air to the surface appears more limited, which should result in higher apparent temperature values. In terms of potential headlines, it`s too early to say for sure beyond 72 hours (Saturday and Sunday). There is some potential for advisory level heat in the I-95 urban corridor on Saturday. There is also the potential for warning level heat in the I-95 urban corridor on at least Sunday. For the remainder of eastern PA and NJ outside of the I-95 urban corridor, there is the potential for advisory level heat on Sunday. The timing of convection with an approaching cold front on Monday will determine whether or not critical heat thresholds will be reached, e.g., convection earlier than the climatological norm would suppress heat index values. Looking ahead beyond the Fourth of July for planning purposes, both the GFS and Euro Ensembles indicate the heat building back into the area late next week into next weekend. The CPC 6-10 outlook indicates a high probability of above average temperatures into next weekend. Precipitation... With deep layer ridging across the region through Sunday, large scale subsidence through the column will promote dry weather, albeit with increasing uncomfortable humidity. The approach of a shortwave and attendant cold front will lead to an increase in forcing, moisture, and instability on Monday, with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. As mentioned previously, the timing is still in question. This front is expected to stall in the vicinity of the region Tuesday and perhaps into the Fourth of July, so additional showers and thunderstorms are likely during this period, with a return to temperatures closer to seasonal norms by the Fourth. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...MVFR CIGs at RDG-ABE-ILG this afternoon should expand N/E toward the Phila terminals between 22Z and 01Z this evening. Any SHRA this evening should be light except potentially in vicinity of RDG. Low-end MVFR conditions are forecast overnight tonight with lowering CIGs and restrictions in periods of moderate SHRA. The greatest risk for heavy SHRA and TSRA with IFR restrictions will be at RDG and ABE between 05Z and 09Z. There is also a potential for LLWS conditions primarily over western terminals late this evening and overnight with a SW low-level jet strengthening to 40-50 kt in the lowest 2 kft AGL. Thursday...MVFR CIGs should gradually improve to VFR during the mid to late morning. Additional showers and storms may develop during the afternoon but coverage should be much more scattered than tonight. SW winds shift to W and then NW behind a cold front. Outlook... Thursday night through Tuesday...Predominantly VFR conditions. For Monday, showers and thunderstorms could lead to brief MVFR/ IFR restrictions. && .MARINE... Based on current trends and the increase in seas within Wavewatch, we decided to issue a SCA for hazardous seas from Sandy Hook down to Little Egg. Previous discussion... A breezy S wind 10-20 kt will continue into tonight. Despite stronger winds of 30-35 kt only a few hundred feet above the surface, poor mixing over the cooler waters will continue to limit the gust potential. Seas in our coastal waters are around 3 ft this afternoon but will build to around 4-5 ft tonight and Thursday morning. Held off a SCA for now given the marginal setup. Outlook... Sub-SCA conditions are expected Thursday night through Sunday night. South-southwest winds may gust to up SCA level closer to the coastline on Monday afternoon and evening, but forecast confidence at this time range is low. RIP CURRENTS... Through this evening...A moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is in effect for both the DE and NJ beaches. Contributing factors include an onshore southeasterly wind with gusts to 25 mph, the full moon tomorrow (greater tidal amplitude accentuating water flow through sand bars), and the lower end of the tide cycle centered around 8 PM. Thursday...A moderate risk is outlooked for the NJ beaches and a low risk for the DE Beaches. In addition to the full moon, the wind will be more onshore along the NJ beaches (south-southeast), which will elevate the risk. Meanwhile, the wind will be more parallel to the DE beaches, leading to a comparatively lower risk. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450-451. && $$ Synopsis...LF Near Term...Klein/Kruzdlo Short Term...Klein Long Term...LF Aviation...Klein/LF Marine...Klein/Kruzdlo/LF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1130 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and pushes a cold front across the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday. High pressure will follow for Friday through Tuesday with above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1127 PM EDT Wednesday... Forecast area in a lull of activity at the moment, with warm front now northeast across northern VA into the Delmarva. Cold front stretched from near CLE-IND-STL. Area of deep moisture convergence ahead of the front will be pushing into our mountains by dawn, with increased chance of showers. Otherwise, expect either mostly cloudy skies west, to increasing clouds east. Patchy fog also expected, mainly in the mountains. Previous discussion from early evening... Watching one cell over Bedford County showing rotation with a couple of sources reporting a wall cloud but no funnels/tornado. 0-1km SRH is around 100-150, and LCL is 750 m AGL. No damage reports yet. Forecast update to cut pops back to more isolated to scattered more along the latest HRRR and radar trends. Just a few showers over the Blue Ridge along Wilkes/Watauga, otherwise pretty quiet apart from that one storm southeast of the town of Bedford. Previous discussion from early afternoon... The warm front will continue lifting north as the cold front approaches tonight. The cold front will move east across the region Thursday. High pressure off the East coast this afternoon will move further out into the Atlantic ocean tonight. The morning cool wedge has lifted and winds have shifted south to southwest this afternoon. Rich cloud cover has slowed the temperature climb this afternoon. However with more heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and spread east across our region this afternoon into this evening. There is enough shear and potential low level enhancement along the warm front this afternoon into this evening to increase severe thunderstorm potential. The Day One SPC Convective outlook has the entire forecast area in a marginal risk. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms to our northeast in Pennsylvania and Maryland and to our southwest in Tennessee and North Carolina. The primary threat will be for damaging winds. Hires model having a hard time placing convection this afternoon. It seems like the Namnest was doing best at this time. but this could change next few hours after destabilization of the atmosphere. The HRRR and Highresw-arw increase convection and coverage around 20z this afternoon. We will need to watch thunderstorms that form closer to the front and upper shortwave trough for later into this evening. With the loss of solar heating, much of the convection will diminish this evening. Allowed for some scattered showers in the west overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 60 in the mountains to near 70 degrees in the piedmont. On Thursday, a large subtropical upper ridge will build over the East with a trough digging into the west. Isolated to widely scattered convection is possible in the west across the higher terrain. High temperatures Thursday will warm into the mid 70s in the mountains to around 90- degrees in the piedmont. Confidence for above average for sequence of weather changes but average to below average on the timing. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday... Thursday night will be a period of transition from the region being on the back side of a departing upper trough, and an upper ridge starting to move into the region from the west. A the surface, highs pressure also will be nosing into the area. The surface high will settle over the area by Friday night, all while the upper ridge continues to strengthen and shift east to over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. On Saturday, the upper ridge is forecast to be overhead. The result of this transition will be a drier and warmer forecast through this portion of the forecast. The only precipitation during this time frame is forecast to be some isolated showers over the Northern Mountains of North Carolina on Friday afternoon while there still is some residual low level moisture, low level flow is upslope/southeast into this region, and the capping inversion of the approaching upper ridge is not yet at its strongest. By Saturday, temperatures are forecast to average five to ten degrees above normal. Heat Index values across parts of the Piedmont will be in the low 100s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday... Saturday night into Sunday, the axis of the strong upper ridge that spent the day Saturday over the region, will start to shift eastward in response to an approaching shortwave trough across the Upper Mississippi Valley. The result will be a gradual weakening of the subsidence inversion, and the start of low level southerly flow into at least the western sections of the area. This transition will allow for slightly better chances of diurnal convection across the mountains Sunday afternoon. This trend continues Sunday night into Monday. The center of the upper ridge will be farther east, the approaching shortwave and its dynamics will be closer, and an even better moist southerly flow will establish itself across the area, not only western sections. However, the western parts of the CWA are still expected to have the best coverage. Monday night through Wednesday, we expect the shortwave trough to cross into New England while its associated weak cold front moves into our region and then stalls. Synoptic steering flow is expected to become extremely weak across the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. with the Jet Stream becoming zonal near the U.S./Canadian border. This scenario will keep our region within an area of good low level moisture with a weak boundary wobbling across the region, its location influenced greatest by daily outflow boundaries from organized convection. Better than scattered coverage is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with limited coverage during other times of the day. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start the period around five to ten degrees above normal. By Wednesday, temperatures will average only a few degrees above normal. Heat index values in the low 100s are still forecast both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Forecast confidence during this portion of the forecast is moderate to high Saturday night through Monday and moderate on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 714 PM EDT Wednesday... Aside from storm affecting LYH at the moment, all sites should be rainfree most of the rest of the period. Could see a cell pop up near DAN/ROA in the next hour or two but forecast confidence is medium and based on the HRRR trying to form something. Most indications are that VFR cigs/vsbys will be around this evening, then possible low cigs maybe for at BLF/LWB/BCB late. Northwest flow arrives Thursday to scour out any low clouds with VFR the rest of the period. Cannot rule out isolated MVFR showers in the west Thursday. Medium confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the period. .Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will persist over the area for the rest of the week. Mainly VFR weather is expected each day, but with some localized early morning patchy MVFR valley fog, and perhaps MVFR conditions in/near isolated thunderstorms that may fire across the mountains during the afternoon hours late in the weekend into Monday. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 810 PM EDT Tuesday... The NOAA weather radio transmitter in Hinton, West Virginia that is WXM72 and broadcasting at a frequency of 162.425 MHz remains off the air, and will likely remain so through the weekend and into early next week. Parts are on order to repair the transmitter, but there is no known time of restoration. We apologize for any inconvenience. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP EQUIPMENT...WERT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 .UPDATE... Weak westerly flow allowed the west coast sea breeze to push the majority of the convection east of the forecast area by the mid afternoon, but a few isolated showers and storms are lingering over the Nature Coast counties and into the Tampa Bay area early this evening. The HRRR is indicating that storms could still build back into southwest Florida along outflow boundaries between now and 03z, but generally rain free conditions will then be expected through the rest of the overnight hours. Some minor forecast adjustments were made to rain chances over Southwest Florida through the next several hours indicating the possibility of storms pushing back towards the coast. Otherwise, no significant changes were needed for the evening update. .AVIATION... A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are still lingering over the interior, and could drift back towards the Gulf coast causing brief flight category disruptions through around 03z. VFR conditions should then hold overnight. Thunderstorms will develop again near the coast during the late morning, and will continue to develop and shift inland through the afternoon and early evening. .MARINE... A ridge of high pressure will hold over the southern Gulf of Mexico through the next few days with continued westerly flow. Morning showers will develop over the eastern Gulf and will generally move inland by the early afternoon. The ridge will lift into the northeastern Gulf this weekend, with lighter and more variable flow, and more scattered thunderstorms. Winds and seas will stay below headline criteria outside of thunderstorms. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 79 88 79 90 / 20 50 10 50 FMY 77 92 77 91 / 30 20 30 50 GIF 75 91 76 93 / 40 50 20 60 SRQ 80 89 79 89 / 10 30 20 40 BKV 76 89 76 91 / 40 50 30 50 SPG 79 90 79 91 / 20 40 10 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for Coastal Lee-Coastal Sarasota. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming UPPER AIR...42/Norman DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
848 PM MST Wed Jun 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A slow moisture increase will bring an increasing chance of thunderstorms over the next few days, favoring border areas and mountain locations. As this happens, temperatures will fall back to average late June levels over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Moisture is slowly increasing from the south with storms developing farther north in far northern Sonora earlier today. Some organization evident in east central and southern Sonora once again, with a major complex in southwest Chihuahua sending deep outflows into Sonora as well. For us, we`re seeing some mid level moisture increase from the south evident on satellite imagery. Also note a 15kt southerly flow about 3k feet deep at Yuma with the surface dewpoint up to 60. The HRRR continues the lower level trend in a broader area overnight in response to earlier convection and shallow surge activity. This slow moistening trend will continue over the next 48 hours with more storms developing near the international border Thursday afternoon and evening. Early looks at thermodynamic trends in the HRRR and ensemble HREF are showing a jump in convective potential just south of the border and into Santa Cruz and southwest Cochise counties tomorrow afternoon. We put out a small update earlier to bump thunderstorm chances up in and around the Santa Rita and Huachuca mountains for later tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Storm chances are still on track to increase Friday and Saturday as outlined in the previous discussion below. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/06Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 14k-20k ft AGL south and southeast of KTUS overnight. ISOLD -TSRA near border areas including KOLS and KDUG after 28/19Z. Winds diminishing to less than 10 kts and terrain driven overnight. Gusty W-NW winds return Thursday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Southerly flow will begin to pull moisture into our area Thursday allowing for a slight chance of thunderstorms near the International Border in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. Chances will expand to include the Tucson vicinity and eastward Friday evening into Saturday. Thunderstorm chances then become more focused across locations east and south of Tucson and the White Mountains Sunday and into early next week. 20-foot winds will generally remain below 15 mph, except for in and around thunderstorms where gusty outflow winds may occur. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Visible imagery this afternoon showed moderate cumulus clouds over the Huachuca and Chiricahua mountains of Santa Cruz county. Cameras near Sierra Vista showed some virga coming out of the cloud bases over the Huachucas. Can`t rule out a quick dry thunderstorm over the above mentioned mountains until early this evening. Otherwise moisture still slowly seeing in from the south with values this afternoon ranging from 0.40" north of Tucson to 0.90" near the International border. Looking south of the border across Sonora Mexico, the leading edge of 1"+ of PW was within 100 miles of Nogales. The 500 mb high over west-central New Mexico this afternoon with east-southeast mid- level flow over the area. The well defined inverted trof that was over the Mexican state of Coahuila yesterday has washed out and hard to find on water vapor. Models suggest that it has moved west and is over eastern Chihuahua and Durango. Moisture increase still on track over the next several days with the focus of thunderstorms Thursday being across southern Cochise county. Both GFS and ECMWF continue to be polar opposites on Friday and its been that way all week. GFS still indicating a very active late Friday afternoon into evening with possible MCS developing over Cochise county, while the ECMWF continues to be on the dry side. The high-res UofA WRF runs of the NAM/GFS showing scattered activity across Cochise county Friday afternoon with thunderstorm outflows pushing as far west as Tucson and east into the New Mexico boot. Added blowing dust to the forecast for Friday. Some lingering activity continuing into the overnight hours Friday with weak upper level trof to our west. Moisture starts to decrease a bit on Saturday with further drying occurring Sunday into early next week. So isolated to scattered storms Saturday east and south of Tucson and then much less area coverage Sunday into early next week with best chances along the International border and along the AZ/NM state line. Temperatures remaining on the hot side tomorrow then cooling off Friday into the weekend. With less moisture around next week high temperatures warming back up to several degrees above normal. Looking toward the end of next week, with is outside the current 7-day forecast package, with a anonymously strong upper high building across the Rockies, it could get quite hot across the area at the end of next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Meyer/G/L Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at