Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/21/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
926 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold frontal boundary will push south through the region tonight, with high pressure building in behind the front. While some scattered showers may linger into the evening conditions will turn sunny Friday. A warm front will lift north through the region late Friday and Saturday with another chance of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 925 pm update... Very light rain showers out there this evening, mainly from the NY/PA border south. Mid level s/w and sfc inverted trough passing ewd across the region...but with most of the instability well to the south across srn PA along with the majority of the showers and storms. Have cut back on the nrn extent of the precipitation in the forecast, and lowered probabilities and qpf amts as well. Still have mention of valley fog in the forecast, but confidence is lower than previously thought with a decent amt of dry air moving in and winds/mixing increasing during the morning hours. Cannot completely rule it out left mention in the lowest/most favorable areas for valley fog. The rest of the forecast looks on track with quiet weather tomorrow, more sun and warmer temperatures. Previous Discussion... Several waves of low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary to our south. Clouds have overrun the boundary this afternoon. However, moisture is very limited as evidence with the latest soundings from the HRRR and RAP. As a result, while the radar shows quite a few returns mainly scattered sprinkles are falling in northern PA into the southern tier of NY. Modeling does indicate another round of showers coming through the Poconos early this evening with a moister environment in place by then. A secondary cold front will then pass through the region overnight resulting in clearing from north to south. Lows tonight should be in the low 50`s north to around 60 in the Poconos. Some patchy fog may form as well just before sunrise but is conditional on the evening clearing and winds going calm which are both somewhat uncertain. High pressure will build into the region Thursday resulting in a mostly sunny day and temperatures quickly rebounding into the 70`s and even 80 in a few spots. MOS guidance as a whole looked a degree or two too cool based on boundary layer temperatures. Winds should increase a touch but stay under 10 mph from the north. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... With the high pressure overhead Thursday night looks rather cool and undercut temperatures slightly from MOS in the upper 40`s to low 50`s. Daytime highs should rebound with one more sunny day as the high departs our region into the 70`s and low 80`s. Similar to Thursday where MOS may be a hair cool with highs. While high clouds should increase on Friday, any precipitation from an approaching warm front should hold off till the night due to the drier airmass in place. Winds will also become southerly on the backside of the high. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 130 pm update... On the large-scale, a short-wave impulse is still progged to open up, as it heads from the OH Valley across NY/PA on Saturday. Sunday into Sunday evening, another short- wave in the northern stream is expected to drop southeastward from Ontario across the forecast area, ultimately helping to push a secondary surface cold front/trough off the east coast. The passage of these features will keep a fairly high probability of showers over the area this weekend. From this early vantage point, it appears that shower activity will be the most persistent on Saturday, and more scattered/intermittent in nature for much of the region Sunday. Saturday continues to look fairly stable, so no thunder will be mentioned for the first half of the weekend. Marginal instability is progged on Sunday, so will include a small chance of thunder. For a good portion of next week, height rises aloft are progged over the eastern CONUS, with a surface high gradually building from eastern Canada, across the northeastern U.S., and eventually off the mid-Atlantic coast. This should lead to mostly rain-free weather for the first part of next week, along with temperatures gradually warming day to day. Highs mostly in the 70s Saturday-Monday, should warm into the upper 70s-mid 80s range towards the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 720 pm update... Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period which is tonight and Friday. Showers turning to sprinkles and exiting to the southeast. A few sprinkles for AVP up to 06z but not expecting any restrictions. Skies are slowly clearing from north to south. Medium confidence on MVFR vsbys between 09 and 12z at KELM with valley fog. Skies clear out late tonight there. Winds will be calm there. Friday mainly high scattered clouds at all sites. Tonight light and variable winds at 5 kts or less. Friday northwest to north winds at 8 kts. Outlook... Friday night...VFR. Saturday through Sunday night...Showers and restrictive conditions are possible. Monday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...TAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
842 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Radar picking up a few weak showers over Park and Lincoln counties. Last few visible satellite images showed a little vertical growth to the clouds over Lincoln county. Not enough instability for thunder though. Will go with low pops, less than 20 percent, through midnight. The RAP and HRRR are also indicating isolated showers are possible here. Only other change will be to tweak cloud cover a little higher for the increase in clouds. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Dry air will be over Colorado through Thursday, with a bit drier air aloft mixing to the surface in the afternoon. This should keep convection to a minimum, though we should at least get some cloud cover again and perhaps a few weak showers/storms. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Models have trended a bit faster with the cold front on Friday, bringing richer moisture back into the plains but not a lot of cooling. This will increase the chance of thunderstorms, with some severe potential if the moisture/heat balance winds up being right. Since it`s usually tricky to get this to work out, the marginal risk on the eastern plains in the SPC outlook looks good at this time. Further west it will still be warm and dry, with a bit more wind. Saturday looks to be a recovery day behind the cold front, with temperatures getting nearly as warm as Friday by the end of the day. Given the initial stability, low PoPs are in order, but there is potential for more in it warms up enough as the plains should still have good moisture. Fair consistency on an upper low moving over the Rockies at about our latitude Sunday and Monday. Much will hinge on the exact path, as there will likely be decent precipitation on the north side of this system. Our blended forecast guidance has a gradient in moisture across our area, with a better chance of significant rain over the northern border and eastern parts of our area. Whether or not there is substantial rain or severe weather will depend on how much the low levels cool and the timing of the lift. Right now the cooler solutions are showing highs around 70 on Sunday, while the warmer/drier ones only drop to around 80. Somewhere in between with the moisture might be a sweet spot for thunderstorms. For now the blended solution of cooler with a pretty good chance for rain at some point across most of the area will do. Ridging behind the trough will lead to a warm/dry southwest flow aloft by midweek. It could be back to summer temperatures, though soil moisture may take the edge off of the heat if we get another round of rain before then. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 842 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 VFR through Thursday. Northeast winds will slowly turn east and end up a southerly direction after 06Z. A period of west winds is possible at KDEN Thursday morning, but speeds will be under 10 knots. Little or no thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Conditions may approach Red Flag criteria in South Park on Friday afternoon. It should be dry enough, but the wind speeds are uncertain. Across the rest of the mountains it will be warm and dry Thursday and Friday with some afternoon breezes, but not as much as in South Park. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Meier SHORT TERM...Gimmestad LONG TERM...Gimmestad AVIATION...Meier FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1105 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers are likely overnight S of the MA/CT/RI border as a low pressure center sweeps W to E just S of New England. Bit cooler with a spot showers Thursday. Seasonable Friday while turning unsettled Saturday, continuing through early Monday with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather thereafter through Thursday, with a renewed chance of wet- weather Friday into the following weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1030 PM Update... AS low pressure approaches the NJ coast this evening, noting very spotty shower activity across S coastal CT and Long Island on latest KBOX and NE regional 88D radar imagery. Only ground truth seen at 02Z was across central Long Island, where both KISP and KHWV were reporting -RA. Pretty dry airmass in place away from the S coast, with T/Td spreads from 10 to 16 degrees. 00Z NAM and RAP BUFKIT soundings also showing a dry airmass through the layer, especially on the RAP model data. Clouds AOB 5000 ft were reported across a few spots on Long Island, while mid and high clouds were the rule further N. Noting clearing line moving slowly but steadily S on latest GOES-East RGB Microphysics composite and IR satellite imagery. With these drier trends, have pushed the northern edge of the precip further S, but did keep mention of mainly CHC POPs across central CT/central RI and S coastal Mass. Have LKLY POPs confined to the immediate S coast and islands after midnight. With a mainly stable airmass, as well as no lightning being reported anywhere across the NE U.S., have removed mention of thunder from this update. Have updated near term to bring conditions current and incorporated current thinking into the overnight forecast. Previous Discussion... Rain moving in just around midnight, exiting the early morning hours on Thursday. Latest radar returns just a pre-cursor, acting to moisten the environment, however low-levels still considerably dry as surface high pressure retreats off to the E. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday into Thursday Night... Precipitation along the south coast will be ongoing early in the morning as surface low pressure continue to move across the southern waters. Approaching wave from the northeast will drive this low south and offshore leading to an end of the precip. Will have to watch for a spot shower or two during the day across the interior. Increasing low level moisture combined with steep lapse rates and upper level trigger could lead to a few showers especially along the higher terrain. Thus have insert a slight chc for a shower during the afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday will be warmer across the CT valley, but quite cool along the east coast. Winds will switch from the southwest to the northeast a front passes through. This will bring the cooler maritime airmass onshore. Could see over a 10 degree difference across the region. Temperatures overnight will cool off, but not as much as prev through. Increasing low level moisture trapped within the inversion will result in stratus and fog across the area. Still trying to narrow down best location, but something to watch for in the coming shifts. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... */ Highlights... - Saturday perhaps not a washout, skirting rains S/E - Showers / t`storms N/W Sunday, sweeping SE into Monday morning - Prolonged dry conditions during the week - Watching weeks-end for additional wet-weather disturbances */ Overview... Summer is coming. Prevailing N Pacific H5 trof downstream of which a split flow regime emerges over western N America. S tug by cascading systems into a Baffin Bay gyre, H85 temperature warm anomalies build into the Great Lakes / St. Lawrence River Valley per 5-day averages. Subsequent higher heights, more dominant N Atlantic high especially towards Bermuda, invoking a S warm, moist pump from the Gulf. Would appear seemingly that a general H5 trof pattern remains over the NE CONUS, however weaker under an increasing weight of high pressure, subsidence. Weak frontal boundary passages with uncertain outcomes, where precipitation looks prominent upstream only to wash out upon arrival. Confident warming trend into July, while a nod of concern of drier than average precip, perhaps enhancing ongoing abnormally dry conditions. Some unknowns, a NE Atlantic rex-block evolving into W Europe, and tropical activity off Africa into the Caribbean. Will hit on any targets of opportunity below. */ Discussion... Saturday... Lean away from heavy rain with wedging high pressure, drier air, as the sub-tropical, +2" precipitable water airmass resides S, perhaps skirting SE New England. Have seen this before with winter systems in where isallobaric flow dams up against an approaching OH River Valley low. Can`t rule out scattered shower, thunderstorm activity towards days end, but leaning with 20.12z GFS/NAM in SE skirting outcomes fueled by low-level convergent inflow towards a held-up warm frontal boundary. De-amplifying mid-level trof, weak frontal boundary parent, pushes the sub-tropical axis offshore ahead of an oncoming sharper H5 trof axis for Sunday into Monday. Not ready to call the day a washout. Sunday into Monday... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms into evening, however mainly N/W interior locales. Possibly strong but not thinking severe per shear and 0-6 km mean wind accompanying along with marginal instability. Better sub-tropical, unstable and muggy airmass S/E, offshore, yet enough moisture that with destabilization should allow activity to pop within cyclonic regime out ahead of overnight sharp cold front, pushing offshore around Monday morning. Accompanying vortmax, strong deep layer ascent, may have to watch SE New England into Monday up against a more muggy airmass lingering offshore as to potential out- comes. Thinking a majority of activity is nuisance. Overall, for the 3-day period Saturday through Monday, could be a situation of interior N/W destabilization with S-shoreline skirting soakers. High pressure wedge from the E, locations up the ME coast down into northeast MA may end up being the precipitation losers. End of the week... Series of frontal boundaries, slowing, stalling against the building wall of Atlantic high pressure. Have to watch closely strength of synoptic features round the convergence boundary, whether there is the possibility of prolonged outcomes over any one particular area. Noteworthy is a sudden tick upward of precipitation within ensemble members. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday Night/... High confidence. Overnight... Mainly VFR. May see local MVFR at times along the immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands in any -SHRA and patchy fog. Low risk of brief IFR conditions across the islands mainly in CIGS after 06Z or so. SW winds up to about 10 kt shifting to light NW after 08Z or so. Thursday... VFR. Lingering S-coastal / Island -SHRA with MVFR CIGs, a brief threat of IFR CIGs for ACK around 12-18z. Improvement during the afternoon hours, CIGs lifting 4-7 kft agl, as spot -SHRA develops across interior S New England around ORH. N winds turning NE. Thursday night... VFR to start but with northeast flow believe low levels will saturate dropping cigs and vsbys to MVFR conditions. KBOS Terminal... Keep -SHRA S of the terminal overnight. VFR prevailing. KBDL Terminal... Expect -SHRA to be immediately S of the terminal. Will go low end VFR overnight however there is a risk of some MVFR possibly sneaking in prior to morning. Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate confidence. Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday through Saturday Night: SHRA likely, chance TSRA. Sunday through Sunday Night: Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Monday: Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence. Passing low pressure system across the southern waters will bring scattered showers which could briefly reduce visibility. Seas could build to 3 feet. May see brief gusts up to 20 kt across the southern near shore waters through 06Z tonight. Otherwise, SW winds will shift to a more NE direction Th lasting into Thu night. Could see local vsby restrictions in patchy fog. Conditions remain below SCA. Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate confidence. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dunten NEAR TERM...Sipprell/EVT SHORT TERM...Dunten LONG TERM...Sipprell AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
919 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .UPDATE... Main updates to the forecast to reduce evening pops east and to add mention of fog overnight into tomorrow morning central and east. Diurnal convection fading over southeast Montana as the sun sets. Had reports of near 4 inch per hour rainfall rates from storms this afternoon. Another disturbance will work into the area from the west late tonight. CAM models showing scattered convection from this feature spreading as far east as Billings by sunrise. Already had isolated to scattered showers/tstms in the forecast for western zones, and spread them a bit further east to cover the latest model solutions. With all the heavy precipitation over the past few days, clear skies for at least a portion of the night and light winds up to 5kft AGL or higher, would expect to see at least fog in the river valleys overnight, but could be a bit more widespread. HRRR showing this potential in the cloud fields so added patchy mention to the forecast through 10 AM tomorrow morning. Chambers && .SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally come to end overnight night as the low pressure system moves out and some shortwave ridging builds in. This break will be short lived however as the ridging gives way to the next shortwave trough. As the wave comes into the area, shear values still look to increase along with the instability. The high-res CAMs are showing some convection could be on the strong side. There continues to be a a marginal risk for some severe thunderstorms, given the shear and instability. The bigger hazard will be heavy rainfall, as the PWs will remain high. Moving into tomorrow night the instability and shear will decrease, so moving east of Billings the threat of strong thunderstorms will be decrease. Reimer On Friday, an upper level shortwave trough will be moving east/southeastward across the Northern Rockies. This trough should bring a good chance of showers and general thunderstorms to the area. The highest chance of rain should be over SE MT where a low-level trough/convergence zone should be...but showers and t-storms are also possible over the rest of the area as sufficient instability should be in place with disturbances moving through the flow. Shear looks weak so am not expecting severe weather. Precipitable water values should remain a bit above normal, so the showers and t-storms can drop additional heavy rainfall. RMS .LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed... On Friday, an upper level shortwave trough will be moving east/southeastward across the Northern Rockies. This trough should bring a good chance of showers and general thunderstorms to the area. The highest chance of rain should be over SE MT where a low-level trough/convergence zone should be...but showers and t-storms are also possible over the rest of the area as sufficient instability should be in place with disturbances moving through the flow. Shear looks weak so am not expecting severe weather. Precipitable water values should remain a bit above normal, so the showers and t-storms can drop additional heavy rainfall. The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue through Sunday as troughing connected to an upper low over southern WY remains over the region continuing shower and thunderstorm chances. For Monday through Wednesday, models largely show a drier pattern with a few caveats. On Monday, ECMWF brings an upper low closer to SE MT and thus a chance of showers/t-storms there, while the GFS keeps the low more to the south and thus gives dry weather over SE MT. Given this model uncertainty, have a small chance of showers/t-storms over SE MT. The next chance of showers/t-storms for much of the area looks to be Tuesday night with models bringing a fast-moving shortwave trough and surface cold front across the region. High temperatures will be in the 70s Friday through Sunday, 80s for Monday and Tuesday, then 70s for Wednesday. STP/RMS && .AVIATION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish through midnight over SE Montana. A disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to western mountains and foothills around midnight, spreading east to around the Billings area around 12z. Local MVFR or lower conditions can be expected with moderate rainfall near showers and thunderstorms. Expect periods of mountain obscuration overnight into tomorrow morning. Patchy fog is possible overnight through mid morning mainly confined to river valleys east of Billings. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/081 056/074 056/073 054/075 056/084 059/084 056/077 13/T 66/T 54/T 53/T 10/U 00/U 21/U LVM 051/076 051/071 048/069 047/073 048/084 052/084 049/075 27/T 86/T 45/T 43/T 10/U 00/U 10/U HDN 054/083 056/074 055/076 053/076 055/085 058/087 055/079 02/T 46/T 54/T 64/T 20/U 00/U 10/U MLS 056/081 059/076 058/077 058/078 059/083 059/087 058/079 21/U 55/T 54/W 44/T 21/B 00/U 11/U 4BQ 052/080 058/076 058/076 055/076 057/081 057/087 057/080 11/U 56/T 54/T 55/T 32/W 00/U 10/U BHK 054/078 056/076 055/075 054/077 056/080 056/085 057/079 20/B 36/T 56/T 44/T 31/B 10/U 11/U SHR 050/079 053/072 052/073 051/070 051/079 054/084 054/078 22/T 46/T 65/T 66/T 31/B 00/U 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
604 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Upper level features this afternoon were a trough over the Northern Plains and ridge over the Desert Southwest. Wrap-around mid-level moisture and weak instability were producing widely scattered showers and isolated tstorms from eastern WY into western SD and northwest NE. This activity will progress south and east into portions of southeast WY and western NE Panhandle through late afternoon then dissipate. 12Z short range models/ensembles concur that the southwest CONUS ridge will build north and east across the Rockies and high plains through Thursday. The only fly in the ointment will be a weak disturbance aloft and front tracking east across northern WY Thursday afternoon. Convection with this system will be isolated and will mainly occur Thursday evening over much of southeast WY. The NAM progs a ribbon of instability /1000-2000 j/kg SBCAPE/ along and just east of the Laramie Range between 21Z and 03Z. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms with small hail and strong gusty winds due to rather high LCLs. High temperatures Thursday will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today. Friday is looking more convectively active as a stronger upper level disturbance and front track east across MT and northern/eastern WY during the afternoon and evening. Instability will peak around 21Z with SBCAPEs progged as high as 2500-3000 j/kg per the NAM across much of the western NE Panhandle into far southeast WY. The SPC Day 3 outlook has a Marginal Risk for severe tstorms for this general area with the main threats large hail and strong gusty winds. Convection may persist into the nighttime hours east of I-25. Highs Friday will trend slight cooler west of the Laramie Range, with 70s to lower 80s east. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Main focus this period will be with the upper low that will be moving across the area primarily Sunday through Monday. Saturday should be mainly dry with a short upper ridge passing across the CWA. Showers and a few storms should increase Saturday night as the upper low approaches from the northwest, with surface upslope flow beneath some diffluent flow aloft. Sunday into Monday should see widespread showers and a few storms as the upper low treks across Wyoming. Not much instability progged on Saturday, then about 500-1000 J/kg near the Colorado border Sunday, so a few stronger storms possible. Some decent rainfall amounts expected before the activity winds down late Monday, with the low progressing east across Nebraska. Tuesday and Weds looking warm and mainly dry though as bit of afternoon convection possible mainly near the mtns late Weds. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 551 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Isolated -SHRA is shifting from NW to SE across Converse into Platte County and into portions of Sioux County, Nebraska as of 00Z. The -SHRA will dissipate over the next hour and not likely impact any TAF sites. North winds of 10 to 20 knots are occurring as of 00Z this evening and will drop to 5-12kt overnight while remaining for the north. Tricky portion of the forecast will be in the early dawn hours from 11-14Z as patchy areas of fog will be possible across the High Plains of Nebraska and into portions SE Wyoming towards CYS. The question will be overall spatial coverage of the fog and if it develops close enough to a TAF site. HRRR/NAM output suggest low enough dewpoint depressions for ground fog to form given the saturated grounds. GFS is less bullish while the RAP has 1-2F dewpoint depressions. The second caveat will be how low can the winds become during this time frame. If winds drop below 5 knots, greater fog coverage and density could occur near Nebraska TAF sites and possibility into CYS. Have trended towards patchy MVFR ground fog visibilities this TAF cycle and will monitor for updates on the 06Z issuance. What fog does that form will dissipate through 14-15Z Thursday morning. Scattered TSRA is expected to develop over the higher terrain of WY after 21Z and will shift east into the central and southern Nebraska Panhandle near to after 00Z tomorrow evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Minimal fire weather concerns late this week through early next week. Lowest relative humidities (20 to 25 percent) will exist over much of Carbon County during this period. After the recent wet pattern, today and Thursday will be drier. The trend toward cooler and wetter weather returns this weekend and lasts into early next week. Warmer and drier conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...JSA FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
842 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... While widespread showers continue in the far northwestern portions of the area in proximity to better lift, the loss of heating to the south has allowed convection to wane considerably. The HRRR remains consistent in its forecast with the consolidation of the precip areas to the west into a somewhat more organized band that will move into the Delta region after midnight. The slow eastward movement combined with PWs around 2.25 inches will support a heavy rainfall/localized flooding threat late tonight into early Thursday morning in this area. Made a few adjustments to the forecast based on latest model and observational trends./26/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and tomorrow: Convection is having an easier time getting going this afternoon, largely due to the initial influence of an anomalously strong (for "summer") upper disturbance dropping toward the Mid to Lower MS Valley. Also helping is the very soupy air mass over the region containing high precipitable water values ranging from 1.8 to 2.2 inches. Most of the heavy downpours are moving this afternoon, limiting the flood threat. However, later tonight model consensus is high that focused moisture advection and increasing lift running north into the Arklamiss Delta should fuel widespread heavy downpours and thunderstorms which will have a tendency to train over the same ground. Despite wind shear increasing, at this point instability looks to remain low enough to preclude much of a severe weather threat through tonight. We updated our HWO and graphics to include a LIMITED flooding threat in the mentioned Delta areas through the course of the night. Away from the Delta, late afternoon and early evening shower and thunderstorm activity should be diminishing before midnight, at least in most cases. Tomorrow, the axis of widespread showers and thunderstorms should be shifting east/southeast out of the Arklamiss Delta through the morning hours as the associated low level trough presses forward ahead of the advancing disturbance aloft. The risk for flooding with the activity along and north of the Natchez Trace corridor should not be zero, but we will hold off mentioning any flooding concerns in the HWO/graphics for Thursday at this juncture, primarily because there should be less potential for prolonged training of heavy rainfall. By afternoon we anticipate the glob of clouds and widespread showers and thunderstorms may start breaking up over the heart of the region, allowing some better destabilization region-wide before dark. Working CAPE values perhaps sneaking over 2000 j/kg in the afternoon time frame could work with deep layer shear approaching 30 kts to bring at least a MARGINAL severe weather threat, mainly along and north of I-20. The main risk with any severe storms in the afternoon should be damaging wind gusts. Highs across the region will mostly be limited to the upper 80s with all the clouds and rain. /BB/ Thursday night through Tuesday: An upper cutoff low over Missouri/Illinois will move incrementally eastward through the Midwest on Friday and then become absorbed into the main upper trough on Saturday while over the Great Lakes region. The cutoff low will drop a frontal boundary south into northern Mississippi on Friday. Ahead of the front lies the moisture rich summertime regime which will foster the formation of scattered showers and storms in north MS on Friday. Looking at the severe parameters, 2500j/kg MU CAPE values along with 40kt bulk shear values could be enough to form a cluster of strong to severe storms and, should the storms move in the southeasterly direction of the bulk shear vectors, perhaps an organized/bowing line of storms. It is a little too far out for the CAMs to grab onto this idea but there are some indications that this is one possibility. For now, the marginal risk in the HWO seems appropriate but may need to be increased in the coming time. The main risk at this time seems to be damaging wind gusts with a secondary threat of hail. Another consideration will be the heat. With abundant moisture and highs in the low 90s, heat indices over much of the area will be above 100 and approaching 105 at times on Friday. Going into the weekend, diurnal activity will be less on Saturday as the stalled boundary dissipates and upper northerly flow becomes more westerly and then southerly on Sunday. Convection will be limited this weekend and then increase a bit on Monday as high pressure settles over the area again. Temps will increase into the low to mid 90s with heat indices near to just above 100. /10/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms look to continue between GLH, GWO and to a lesser extent GTR through much of the upcoming period. Further south, convection will be more scattered during the evening diminishing by late evening with MVFR ceilings developing after midnight. Convection will begin increasing again from the west prior to dawn and linger through much of the daytime Thursday. Where the heavier showers/storms occur, ceilings and visibilities will be briefly lowered./26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 87 72 91 / 33 69 18 32 Meridian 73 88 72 91 / 19 60 22 35 Vicksburg 73 88 73 91 / 66 78 14 35 Hattiesburg 74 89 71 92 / 8 53 21 17 Natchez 73 87 73 91 / 38 69 8 12 Greenville 73 88 72 90 / 79 65 29 53 Greenwood 73 86 71 89 / 74 78 37 55 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1006 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .UPDATE... Per coordination with the Weather Prediction Center, remnant MCV over SE TX will enhance precipitation potential in a already saturated and unstable airmass with PW`s over 2". Have increased areal rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches with the possibility of 3 to 5 inches in isolated locations across the Flood Watch areas of Southeast Texas including Jefferson, Orange, Southern Jasper & Newton counties. Updated forecast and Flood Watch has been sent. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 828 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows weak high pressure over the SE U.S. this evening, keeping a moist southeast flow off the Gulf. Not much sfc reflection of the large trough over coastal TX and N Mexico. However, weak cyclonic rotation continues roughly between 925mb-500mb across S TX that`s keeping excellent lift, coupled with PW`s over 2" (2.13" at 00Z LCH sounding), to provide copious amounts of rainfall where the training convective band sets up. One such band is continuing to slowly move east across SE TX, mainly northwest of Beaumont/Orange at this hour. This will continue to feed off of the moist and unstable air over our region this evening and overnight. Latest HRRR guidance shows this will likely move further east into Western Louisiana and unfortunately, over the remainder of Southeast Texas this evening and overnight. At this time, looks like rainfall totals of 1" to possibly 2" band could stay northwest of Beaumont/Orange area, but even the additional rainfall of 0.5 to possibly 1.0" expected this evening and overnight could result in drainage problems as the ground remains absolutely saturated. Flood watch will continue for the hardest hit counties of Jefferson, Orange, and Southern Jasper & Newton through 7 AM. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/ AVIATION...Showers and storms can be expected in the area through the period, however coverage will be higher near KBPT. Lower ceilings can also be expected overnight and lower vis may occur in precip. Winds will be south to sw at or less than 10 kts. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/ DISCUSSION... Short Term...Tonight and Thursday... Regional radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across Southeast TX and Central LA. Much of this activity should continue through the afternoon and into this evening. Latest HiRes guidance continues to push a band of heavier rain eastward into Southeast Texas late tonight, though there is still some uncertainty as to when this will move into our area and what rainfall totals we can expect. Eventually, these showers should spread into southwest Louisiana and across the area during the day on Thursday. After the last several days of heavy rain across southeast Texas, RFC flash flooding thresholds are still rather low at 2"-3" over three hours and 3"-4" over six hours. While "official" forecast totals through tonight are expected to be around or less than one inch, 12Z HREF guidance indicates the potential for more robust convection to produce rainfall amounts that will approach flash flood guidance. Additionally, guidance has preformed poorly over the past several days with regards to the placement of convective bands and rainfall amounts. The axis of steadier precipitation is expected to shift northeast from central Texas during the overnight hours and any additional heavy rain received overnight across Southeast Texas has the potential to produce local flash of preci flooding. Therefore, it was decided to lean on the side of caution and extend the Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for southeast Texas. Further east across western Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes, flash flood guidance is running higher and the likelihood of precipitation exceeding said guidance is lower resulting in the Watch being cancelled. RACKLEY Long Term...Friday through Tuesday... The upper level low contributing to the heavy rainfall over the past several days is expected to become integrated with a upper level trough Thursday with the trough axis shifting east of the region during the day Friday. The combination of the exiting trough, the upper level high over the western Atlantic expanding into the eastern Gulf, and height rises in advance of a digging shortwave trough from the Pacific northwest will result in weak ridging across the MS Valley through the weekend into early next week. This will contribute to decreasing deep layer moisture with forecast PWAT values of less than 1.5" Friday through Sunday. This will result in drier conditions and warmer conditions through Sunday. Early next week, the digging Pacific shortwave and upper level ridge will result in a more favorable pattern for return flow and deep layer moisture will begin to rebound to climatological values for late June. This will result in a return of the typical diurnal convection beginning on Monday and continuing through the middle of the week. 26 MARINE... Winds and seas will gradually decrease through the evening and Thursday as the northwest Gulf pressure gradient continues to relax. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tomorrow before coming to an end Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 75 87 74 94 / 80 60 10 20 LCH 77 85 77 91 / 80 50 10 20 LFT 77 85 76 92 / 20 40 10 20 BPT 77 86 76 91 / 80 50 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ215-216-261-262. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
853 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .DISCUSSION... Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. A lead mid level shortwave moving through the region, in advance of an upper level low dropping southeast from the Plains, is driving this development. Instability continues to wane so severe weather chances are small though a strong thunderstorm with gusty winds could occur overnight. Given the coverage upstream and the latest HRRR runs decided to go with categorical pops along a corridor for Clarksdale to Memphis to Paris after midnight. Most of the rain will move east of the area Thursday morning with redevelopment expected along the cold front during the afternoon. SJM && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018/ At 3 PM around the Mid-South, temperatures were generally in the low to mid 80s. Showers were ongoing, with a few isolated thunderstorms becoming apparent on radar. An increase in the coverage of showers and storms is expected as the evening progresses. The latest H5 analysis depicts an upper ridge to the SE of the Mid-South, with an amplifying trough just to the NW. With the region wedged between these features, southwesterly flow is present aloft. A few weak embedded impulses in this flow have led to cloud cover and precipitation today. This will continue tonight, enhanced by a frontal boundary moving ESE into the region. This will make showers and thunderstorms likely during the overnight hours. Enough instability could exist to aid one or two of the storms in becoming strong this evening and tonight, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall the primary threat. The greatest rain chances will be in the eastern half of the FA on Thursday as the front progresses. Meanwhile, the upper closed low moves over the region, which will keep sky cover and precipitation chances in the forecast each day through the weekend. The surface boundary stalls out over northern Mississippi, keeping the best chances for showers and thunderstorms focused there for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain the 80s each afternoon, a few degrees cooler than average for late June, as the upper low transits the region through the weekend. By late Saturday the upper trough kicks east, with more zonal flow moving in aloft over the region. This will keep conditions unsettled, as several weak impulses embedded in this flow will keep shower and thunderstorm chances present into early next week. The best chance during this period looks to be on Sunday as a surface low moves just to the NW of the region. An upper ridge begins to build back into the region by the middle of next week, which will reduce rain chances and allow temperatures to warm back into the 90s late in the period. ZDM && .AVIATION... /00z TAFs/ Scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms, will continue this evening but are expected to increase in coverage overnight as a shortwave trough moves across the region. Tempo groups were retained at most terminals late tonight for TSRA and tempo IFR to low end MVFR ceilings/visibility within convection. Low clouds are expected to hang around Thursday morning with generally benign weather anticipated roughly 15-21z tomorrow. Storms are expected to redevelop after 20z. Johnson && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. UPDATE... Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Updated near term public forecast to account for showers and isolated thunderstorms currently spreading into southeast Missouri from northeast Arkansas. Also attempted to better define timing of peak precipitation chance from west to east across the region overnight into early Thursday morning. Model forecast soundings suggest a substantial decrease in instability tonight. Given the relative lack of lightning with the ongoing activity, decided to lower thunder chances tonight and early Thursday morning while raising the overall chance for general shower activity. Remainder of forecast is unchanged. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 PM convection is firing and we are just now getting our first lightning strikes, in our north. The HRRR has a decent modeling of the current radar pic, and it picks up on the best focusing mechanism in the vicinity of the surface boundary around/just to our north. More advective development is coming in on the moist tongue, and the HRRR suggests it will pick up after nightfall in the south, while others may experience a reprieve in overall activity. As the front sags south overnight, and the moist tongue continues unabated, thunderstorm coverage increases especially after midnight and into tmrw. Tmrw pm, we`ll have a marginal risk of svr, due to heated parcels and increasing shear by about 10 kts in the lower 6KM as compared to today. Low level lapse rates with the steepening profile will be sufficient for strong-svr storms, but must overcome negating lapse rates aloft. The proximity of the upper Low and assist from the front may be just enough to do this, for our continued marginal risk svr thru the evening hours tmrw. Otherwise PW`s in the mid inch range will make locally heavy rains a hazard as well. Higher pops translate east with the front Friday, before waning some Friday night in the post frontal wake airmass. The convective clouds will tamp down daytime temps after today, while humidity remains high with 70s plus td`s til after fropa, when we fall back into the 60s later Friday-Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 The parent Low will be dragging the front away Saturday, on up the mid-upper Ohio river valley. But another fast moving/fast shaping system will drop out of the westerlies from the High Plains, and bring another cold front into/thru the area Saturday night-Sunday. This will spike pops again on it moves across the mid Mississippi river valley, as it lays out to our south and goes quasi stationary. That yields an early week lull, before it is eaten away at by high pressure ridging throughout the column heading into the mid week period. Still, with daytime temps in the 80s, and dew points returning to the 70s, we won`t be able to rule out at least a diurnally natured shower/storm pop in some part of the area during the early to mid work week period. .AVIATION... Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Isolated showers and storms early this evening will tend to diminish with loss of heating. However, a much larger and more organized area of showers and storms will arrive after midnight in association with an upper-level disturbance. This rain will likely bring some lower cigs, including areas of ifr during the early morning hours. Conditions will improve to vfr during the day Thursday, but some isolated storms will redevelop in the afternoon. Updated near term public forecast to account for showers and isolated thunderstorms currently spreading into southeast Missouri from northeast Arkansas. Also attempted to better define timing of peak precipitation chance from west to east across the region overnight into early Thursday morning. Model forecast soundings suggest a substantial decrease in instability tonight. Given the relative lack of lightning with the ongoing activity, decided to lower thunder chances tonight and early Thursday morning while raising the overall chance for general shower activity. Remainder of forecast is unchanged. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...RJP AVIATION...MY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
815 PM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Increased marine clouds and cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday will give way to warmer and sunnier weather over the weekend before cooler and cloudier conditions return early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough moving northeastward across southwest Oregon. Plenty of showers and thunderstorms developed in advance of this feature across the Oregon and Washington Cascades earlier this afternoon and evening. Speed shear was rather meager across the area today, which led to updrafts struggling to sustain themselves. A thunderstorm in the southern Lane County Cascades where 0-6km shear was slightly greater likely contained the largest hail of the afternoon based on doppler radar signatures. However, we have not received any ground truth reports verifying whether or not large hail was observed under any of the thunderstorms in which warnings were issued this afternoon and early this evening. Several convective allowing models including members of the HREF and HRRR suggested thunderstorms were a good possibility for the Portland metro this evening. Several updrafts (in the form of towering cumulus) went up around the Portland metro during the time the sea breeze arrived, but no individual updraft could sustain itself for reasons not completely known at this point. A few models have continued to suggest elevated thunderstorms are a possibility between 8-11pm this evening as the marine layer deepens and is able to interact with the instability still present above 5000 feet. Given few signs this will materialize per latest radar and satellite imagery, it appears the chance of thunderstorms is certainly diminishing across most of the area. Will maintain a slight chance of a thunderstorm through the late evening hours to account for the uncertainty, though. Otherwise, the marine layer is quickly spreading into the Willamette Valley with temperatures already in the low to mid 60s in Kelso/Longview, McMinnville, Salem and Eugene. Expect marine clouds to push well into the Cascades by daybreak on Thursday with sunshine returning in the mid to late afternoon hours. Temperatures will be slow to warm with high temperatures likely only topping out in the mid 70s. Expect a near repeat Friday before upper level high pressure shifts over the region on Saturday and results in fewer morning clouds and afternoon temperatures approaching 80F in the Willamette Valley. /Neuman && .LONG TERM...Saturday night through Tuesday night...A surface thermal trough strengthens along the N. CA and S. OR coast Saturday night as high pressure dominates inland, and offshore flow should keep marine clouds off the coast Saturday night. A sunny start Sunday will allow slightly warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon with high temperatures remaining above the seasonal normals. Models are in excellent agreement that an upper level trough will send a series of shortwave troughs over the region Sunday night through Tuesday for increased morning clouds and cooler afternoon temperatures. ~TJ && .AVIATION...Thunderstorms have developed over the Cascades this afternoon. As time progresses this afternoon, thunderstorms will start to develop farther west, impacting TTD and PDX around 00Z this evening. Could even see a thunderstorm as far south as SLE, but better chance will be farther north. Thunderstorms should start to diminish after 02Z-03Z. If a thunderstorm passes over a terminal, expect a period of heavy rainfall reducing flight conditions. Small hail and gusty variable winds are also possible. Along the coast, marine stratus will hold through the rest of today and tonight. With high pressure building over the Coast, may see cigs lower to high IFR overnight tonight. Marine stratus will also be pushing inland overnight, bringing MVFR cigs to all the inland terminals after 08Z-10Z. Will hold on to MVFR cigs through much of Thursday morning, improving to VFR Thursday afternoon as cigs break up and lift. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominantly VFR conditions through this evening. Thunderstorms likely to develop near the terminal this afternoon between 22Z-02Z. During this time, expect gusty, variable winds from surrounding showers and thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm moves over the terminal, expect a period of heavy rainfall reducing flight conditions. Could also see small hail. Overnight tonight, marine stratus will move into the terminal, with cigs around 2500 ft. MVFR cigs should hold through much of Thursday morning, lifting as cigs start to break up by early Thursday afternoon. -McCoy && .MARINE...High pressure continues to sit over the NE Pac, with weak gradients over the waters through Friday. As the thermal low starts to strengthen over norther CA this weekend, we could see northerly winds ramp up to 20 to 30 kt over the weekend. Seas remain around 3 to 5 ft through Friday as we remain under relatively benign conditions. With winds ramping up this weekend, seas may build up to 5 to 7 ft by late Sunday-early Monday, and seas may become choppy. -McCoy && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ Interact with us via social media: This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the CWA or forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
311 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Chances for showers and thunderstorms look rather low for this evening. The HRRR shows some isolated precip over the Pikes Peak region, the Wet mtns and the far southeast plain late this afternoon, with a batch of precip moving southeastward off the Rampart Range in the early evening and dissipating about the time it gets to Crowley county. The HRRR then shows some isolated activity over Las Animas and Kiowa counties from about midnight to 3 am. The NAM is somewhat similar. The GFS is similar as well but it also has precip this evening over some of the Sangre de Cristos. The main storm threats will be lightning and gusty outflow winds. Tonight and Thu, an upper level ridge will be slowly building over the area. The forecast models keep the area dry until late Thu afternoon, at which point they show just the potential for some isolated precip over some of the eastern mtns. Temps on Thu are expected to be around to a few degrees above average, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the southeast plains, and in the mid to upper 80s in the San Luis Valley and the Upper Arkansas River Valley. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Long range models are in decent agreement through the extended period and ensemble spreads are low leading to higher forecast confidence. Thursday night through Saturday...expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday evening, dissipating through the overnight hours. Lightning will be the primary threat with any thunderstorms across the mountains. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Friday, issued a fire weather watch for the western half of the CWA due to expected low humidity values, gusty winds to near 40 mph and critical fuels. This includes the San Luis Valley, Continental Divide and Eastern Mountains. Out across the Plains, humidity values will be elevated due to moisture being advected from the East. Models in good agreement with a dryline setting up just east of the I-25 corridor and thunderstorms forming during the afternoon. A quick moving upper level shortwave trough will also play a role in thunderstorm development, sending a cold front south into the Plains by late afternoon. One or two of the storms could be strong to severe with hail in excess of one inch in diameter and strong outflow wind gusts. Expect thunderstorms to shift east across the Plains and clear into western Kansas during the late evening hours. By Saturday, the upper shortwave will shift east into the Central Plains with weak high pressure moving across the area. Drier conditions are expected through the day with possibly a couple of isolated mountain thunderstorms during the afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations. Sunday through Monday...the next upper level storm system will drop south out of the northern Rockies into Northern Colorado during this period. Sunday looks to be another near critical day in terms of fire weather for the western half of the CWA. Again, a dryline is forecast to set up out near the Kansas border on Sunday afternoon while a cold front combines with the upper disturbance passing to the north to trigger thunderstorms across the Eastern Plains. The strongest storms appear at this time to form in far Eastern Colorado along the dryline, while frontal thunderstorms remain confined to the Palmer Divide. How far south thunderstorms develop along the cold front will depend on where the upper disturbance tracks. On Monday, a secondary cold front will surge south across the Plains with more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across the region. Tuesday into Wednesday...high pressure will build northward out of the Desert Southwest. Models are indicating several areas of embedded energy rotating around the upper high leading to diurnally and terrain driven showers and thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms will likely move off the mountains out into the I-25 corridor during the evening hours, before dissipating with loss of daytime instability. Temperatures will also begin to warm with highs reaching the upper 90s by Wednesday. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018 VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. There is a chance that thunderstorms could end up in the vicinity of KCOS this evening. Tonight some lower clouds are expected to move into KCOS and KPUB, but ceilings will probably be between 4000 and 6000 feet AGL, these clouds should then decrease or dissipate by 14Z Thu. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ220-222>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...28