Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
At 3 PM, a mesoscale convective system was located over eastern
Iowa and northern Illinois. This system is still producing some
light rain across southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa.
Meanwhile, the clouds are starting to thin along and north of
Interstate 90. Temperatures ranged from the mid-60s to lower 70s
south of Interstate 90 and from the mid-70s to lower 80s north of
this Interstate.
For tonight, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on when the low
level jet will kick in across the area. As a result, this affects
when and where the showers and storms will develop. The GFS
initiates this jet the earliest as a result it initially develops
west of the Mississippi River and then moves east into Wisconsin
during the overnight and Friday morning. The NAM, ECMWF, ARW, and
NMM`s low level jet kicks in between 15.04z and 15.07z. This is
when the warm front is just moving into western Wisconsin, so the
showers and thunderstorms develop mainly east of the Mississippi
River during the overnight and Friday morning. Meanwhile, the RAP
and HRRR are even slower yet with their jet development and the
showers and storms do not develop until they move into central
Wisconsin. Finally, the HRRR is interesting because it has
convection moving into the area from central Minnesota toward day
break. This convection is developing along the convective outflow
boundary from the mesoscale convective system moving across
northern Minnesota.
The NAM and the NAM based models have a mesoscale convective
system developing across the eastern Dakotas on Friday morning.
This system then upscales into a linear line across western
Minnesota. It then moves southeast through our area on Friday
evening. With this system being fully mature, the main severe
weather threat will be damaging winds. This is why SPC has
upgraded our area to a Slight Risk. Some of the other models also
generate a mesoscale convective system too, but they are much
later in the night.
With precipitable water values nearing 2 inches and warm cloud
layer depths between 3.5 and 4 km, the showers and storms will be
highly efficient rain producers. This could result in the
potential for some localized flooding.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
For the weekend, the 14.12z models continue to struggle on the
northward extent of the upper level ridge. The GFS and GEM keep
generating several rounds of storms along and north of Interstate
90. As a result, their cap remains weak. Due to this, the 925 and
850 mb temperatures remain cooler and high temperature remain
mainly in the 80s.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF and NAM builds the ridge much further north
and we remain primarily dry. As a result, high temperatures climb
into the lower and mid 90s. These temperatures may be too
conservative if the 925 and 850 mb temperatures are able to warm a
bit more. With record highs primarily in the 90s, a few record
highs may be tied or broken.
On Monday and Monday night, a cold front will move southeast
through the region. This will bring another round of showers and
storms to the area. With there being primarily weak 0-3 to 0-6 km
shear ahead of this front, the severe weather threat looks to be
isolated at this time. In the wake of this front, temperatures
will return back to normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Starting to get a clearer picture of the evolution of storms
tonight, and it appears increasingly likely that any showers or
thunderstorms that develop will remain north and east of both RST
and LSE. Given that anticipation, have maintained a dry forecast
for both locations, with just some passing mid or high clouds at
times, and maybe a sprinkle or very light shower this evening at
RST. Winds will remain from the southeast overnight in the 8-15
knot range, though still anticipate some low level wind shear at
RST after midnight. Winds then become gusty from the south 15-20
knots into Friday afternoon.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Lawrence
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1101 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
We extended the severe thunderstorm watch through midnight for
Stutsman, Emmons, Logan and Kidder. Otherwise thunderstorms will
be trending down tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 907 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
The severe weather threat seems to be limited across the far
south from a very strong cap as seen on the 00Z Bismarck
Sounding. As the front moves east and approaches the south
central, it should erode the cap, however our dewpoints at
Bismarck have fallen 20 degrees from near 70 to near 50. As the
dry air arrives the subsidence appears to be generating a weak
heat burst as temperatures rose to 87 at 9 pm at Bismarck.
UPDATE Issued at 719 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Updated the POPs with the HRRR Time lapse ensemble which generally
increased the POPs central and decreased them west as a dry west
windflow moves into the west. Otherwise widespread thunderstorms
expected central and far southwest this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
A tornado watch has been issued for northwest and north central
North Dakota until 11 pm CDT.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of southwest
and south central North Dakota until 11 pm CDT.
Short term forecast highlights center around a moderate and enhanced
risk of severe weather across western and central North Dakota
beginning this afternoon. The storm prediction center had upgraded
the severe threat across northern North Dakota into the moderate
risk for severe storms. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally
heavy rain will be the main threat with a non-zero tornado risk,
especially across our north.
This afternoon, an upper level low/trough was located over
Alberta/Saskatchewan/western Montana with several upper level
shortwave impulses moving northeast across Montana, south central
Canada, and into northwestern North Dakota. At the surface, a cold
front extended from southeastern Saskatchewan across the northwest
corner of North Dakota into eastern Montana. Ahead of the cold front
was a surface trough, separating 60sF dewpoints to the east with
40s/50s dewpoints to the west. While a mid-level h700 thermal cap
remains in place across central and eastern ND, west and north of
the surface cold front the thermal cap weakens. This is why
thunderstorms developed this morning and continued into this
afternoon along and northwest of the cold front. The storms moved
east across the northern tier of counties, the storm`s dynamics
overcoming any mid-level capping mentioned previously.
Regarding the severe threat this afternoon/evening...a potent EML
has become established over the northern plains. PWAT values
increasing to 1.25-1.5 inches across north-central and eastern ND
will create a threat for heavy rainfall in areas that do see
convection through the evening hours.
Latest thinking is that convection is most likely to continue across
northwestern North Dakota where the cap has eroded near the
overspreading height falls and mid-level cooling.
The models continue to depict the environment over western and
central North Dakota consisting of MLCAPE values exceeding 2000-2500
J/kg and 55 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will
support supercells with large hail and damaging wind gusts. A non-
zero tornado risk will also be associated with supercells along our
far north where increased southeasterly surface winds enhance sfc-1
km SRH values.
The coverage of convective initiation and discrete storms further
south remains less confident due to the increased influence of the
capping inversion ahead of the surface trough and cold front.
Convection will be more likely along the advancing surface trough
and cold frontal axis through the evening, especially along our
south-central to southeast, where storm mode becomes linear and
transitions to a mostly damaging wind threat.
By daybreak Friday, the surface cold front should be in the Red
River Valley, with drier air moving in behind it. Friday should be a
dry day across our area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
The long term period is highlighted by several chances for
precipitation and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday night,
especially across southwest and south central North Dakota
southeast. The large upper level trough remains over the Pacific
Northwest and northern US Rockies through the weekend, then begins
to cutoff over Nevada/Idaho, essentially cutting off the stream of
upper level impulses streaming northeast towards North Dakota.
Southwest flow aloft continues through the weekend with multiple
impulses bringing showers and thunderstorms across our area. The
severe threat will be mostly contained further south of our area,
outside of the occasional storm threat in our far southeast counties
where instability may redevelop. High temperatures should be mainly
in the 65F to 75F range Saturday and Sunday through this active
weekend period. The possibility for continued rainfall seems to be
favoring our south and east through the weekend.
Upper level ridging builds early next week as the aforementioned
western low cuts off. Chances for precipitation remain uncertain
next week, though not completely unlikely in times where impulses
ride over the ridge aloft. A slow warming trend ensues with highs
reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s by Wednesday, and low to mid
80s on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 719 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Hazards to aviation continue to be thunderstorms this evening. A
surface low pressure trough with associated cold/warm fronts will
be the focus for thunderstorms tonight. Best chance for
thunderstorms KMOT-KBIS-KJMS tonight. VFR expected.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
945 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Only minor changes, tapering the showers/storms over the western
part of our area a bit faster this evening. We should be about
done, though there`s still a slight chance of weak convection over
the eastern part of the plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
A relatively light west to southwesterly flow aloft will be over
the region tonight. Latest HRRR/RUC20 through this evening
indicate weak high based showers/tstms moving across the cwa. Main
issue will be gusty outflow winds and lightning as these storms
move across the area. Critical fire danger due to a combination of
factors, reference the fire weather discussion. A weak front will
push north to south across the northeast plains late tonight. On
Saturday, not as hot with a slight improvement in precipitable
water values over today. Could see some better showers/tstm
coverage in the mountains Friday afternoon, with generally isolated
thunderstorms over the adjacent plains. Marginal severe thunderstorm
possible Friday aftn mainly along the WY/NE border where best low
level moisture/shear will be. Elsewhere, main issue with the storms
will continue to be gusty outflow winds. Vertically Integrated
Smoke fm the HRRR indicate some the smoke/haze issue should improve
overnight, smoke conditions may return by Friday aftn.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Main concern shifts from fire weather to thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall later this weekend into early next week.
For Friday evening, we`ll see a few high based showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds to around 45 mph. Those will work
northeast and end early in the evening along the Front Range, but
may linger til around 9-10 PM in the mountains and eastern plains.
Can`t entirely rule out a light shower in the mountains overnight
as mid level moisture plume ahead of Bud remnants arrives.
The bulk of Bud`s remnants will reach Colorado Saturday, and this
can be seen nicely in the 700-500 mb specific humidity charts
with values of 6+ g/kg. Integrated vapor transport and Spec
humidity/PW all show standardized anomalies of 2-3 and return
intervals in the 2-5 year range (all for this time of year,
however and not the true monsoon season). Overall, these area
values closer to what we`d see in July, and there will be a
considerable amount of moisture wrung out over the mountains in
Southwest and Central Colorado. We will still lack low level
moisture on Saturday over our forecast area, unless another front
can sneak down across the plains which appears unlikely at this
time. Therefore, we think Saturday will still feature scattered
showers and storms, with the main threat of heavier rainfall
staying over the mountains and possibly the Wyoming border area
depending on potential for the front.
By Sunday, the threat of locally heavy rainfall will increase as a
cold front will bring upslope flow, higher low level moisture,
and instability. PW values are forecast to rise to 1 inch or more,
warm cloud depth will increase, and thus a more efficient rain
process is expected. Storms may be a little slower moving,
although the latest indications are there may be a stronger
southwest flow aloft so a few severe storms due to increase shear
will also be possible. Temperatures will definitely be cooler with
much needed relief to fire weather concerns.
It looks like this pattern will stay in place through Monday and
Tuesday, with continued thunderstorm chances and potentially
locally heavy rainfall during this period. Main threat for any
flooding issues through this period would be over the burn scars,
followed by urban areas. No widespread flooding issues are
expected at this time.
We`ll trend back toward climatology by the mid to end part of next
week, but still offer a chance of thunderstorms each day during
this slight warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 941 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
VFR through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are expected after 21z,
but once again there is a good chance of variable winds with gusts
to 40 knots well away from the storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
No changes to the current highlights. A Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect until 8 pm mdt this evening for the mountains,
high valleys, Front Range Foothills and Palmer Divide above 6000
feet. Not as hot, nor as dry on Friday with min RH in the
mountain valleys progged to be in the low 20s. Therefore do not
plan on issuing a Fire Weather Watch anywhere at this time. Dry
fuels however will keep the fire danger elevated until some decent
rainfall develops.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1040 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from an upper level low will result in a some showers
across the North Country tonight, while high pressure nearing
Western New York will result in clear skies elsewhere.
Comfortable temperature and humidity values will remain across
the region Friday with abundant sunshine. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible Saturday across Western New York
before a sultry airmass slides into the region Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Late this evening there is an upper level trough across New
England, with an embedded shortwave moving into the North
Country. Radar shows shows along the leading edge of this
feature across the North Country with the western edge of cloud
cover gradually eroding leaving western New York mostly clear.
This should taper off after midnight as the shortwave continues
to pivot around the broad trough.
Otherwise, high pressure across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio
Valley will expand across the region overnight. Skies will
remain clear across western New York, and the clouds east of
Lake Ontario will gradually erode late tonight. If skies clear
quickly enough east of Lake Ontario, some patchy fog will
develop similar to what is shown by HRRR guidance. Elsewhere is
drier which will support a longer period of radiational cooling
but probably not any fog. Low temperatures will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s.
The center of the surface high will cross the region Friday,
with light winds, abundant sunshine and comfortable levels of
humidity to go along with seasonal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...Increasing heat and humidity along with showers/storm chances...
A digging trough over the West Coast will lead to amplification of
an upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley on Friday. This ridge
will progressively drift through the Great lakes region over the
weekend and into early next week with heat and humidity gradually
building across western and north central New york. Periodic
disturbances will eject from the upstream troughing, rounding the
ridge and dropping into the Great Lakes region.
The dry weather should prevail Friday night as the center of
surface high pressure slowly eases its way across Pennsylvania.
Overnight temperatures will remain comfortably cool with lows
dropping back into the 50s, with a few upper 40s across Lewis
County and in the coolest Southern Tier valleys.
High pressure will start to settle southeast of the area into
the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. This will start the trend
toward warmer temperatures and increased humidity. Models
continuing to advertise a shortwave rounding the upper ridge
producing an overnight Friday night with a convective complex
developing upstream across Michigan feed by a modest low level
jet. This complex will be in the process of weakening as it
drops southeast toward western New York Saturday morning. What
ever is left of this complex will impact portions of the area
during the morning, but any leftover boundaries potentially
helping to aided widely scattered afternoon convection. High
temperatures will edge upward with most highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.
Another shortwave works into the region overtop the ridge
Saturday night, but some model differences to where the
associated convective complex will evolve, however some guidance
suggests it could be close to western New York with a greater
risk of this one impacting our forecast area early Sunday
morning to at least midday Sunday.
In the wake of what should be a passing convective complex Sunday
morning...it will be warm and steamy for the afternoon. H85 temps in
the upper teens to near 20c will support highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s...but if debris cloudiness from earlier convection
lingers...then these numbers may be on the high side. Meanwhile...
dew points will climb to within a few degrees of 70. If this
temperature and dew point forecast were to verify...then the bulk of
the Niagara Frontier...Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes regions would
reach Heat Advisory criteria...which has just this season been
lowered to 95F (apparent temp). Anyway you slice it though...Sunday
afternoon will be uncomfortable. Stay tuned.
By Sunday night...our region will certainly be deep within a sultry
airmass. While the ridge should keep the majority of the forecast
area rain free...there are enough guidance packages supporting
convection around the perimeter of the ridge to warrant chc pops for
showers across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Otherwise it will be
muggy with mins only in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm and humid conditions continue Monday as a ridge persists across
the southeast U.S. A transition to cooler and less-humid weather is
in sight as a frontal boundary moves through the region Monday night-
Tuesday.
The ridge will begin to move southward as a mid-level trough and
cold front approaches from the north on Monday however warm and
humid conditions will persist during the day. Low-level convergence
and height falls in a moist environment will lead to the chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday-Tuesday. The synoptic set-up Monday-
Tuesday looks similar to the Frontal Pattern by Maddox et al. (1979)
where winds aloft parallel to the frontal boundary leads to heavy
rainfall in a moist environment. Due to the recent dry spell, hydro
concerns are not anticipated at this time.
Cool and dry weather moves into the region behind the frontal
boundary Tuesday night and dry weather should persist through most
of the work week. Temperatures will start off well above normal
Monday and become near-normal Tuesday-Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions overnight, with the exception of the
North Country. KART is closer to an upper level low which is
cloud cover and some showers late this evening. This will result
in MVFR or lower cigs for much of the night. IFR conditions are
possible in showers or lower clouds tonight, then later tonight
there is a potential for fog to develop if the clouds clear
out. Elsewhere skies will be clear.
There is high confidence in VFR conditions on Friday with high
pressure building across the region.
Outlook...
Friday night...VFR.
Saturday...VFR with a chance of showers across the western New York.
Saturday night...VFR.
Sunday to Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms with brief MVFR flight conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will build across the region Friday with fine
boating conditions which will last well into the weekend. A few
thunderstorms are possible on Saturday through Monday.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Buffalo WSR-88D radar will be down through Friday due to a
system upgrade.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas
SHORT TERM...RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Thomas
EQUIPMENT...Thomas
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
614 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Tonight there is a slim chance of a storm making it into the far
western areas of Kansas from eastern Colorado this evening. This
will be in association with a trough of low pressure and a
shortwave moving through eastern Colorado. What will be the
deterrent in keeping these thunderstorms going farther into
Kansas will be the impressive warm layer in the lower levels with
850 mb temps in the mid 20s (C) and 700 mb temps in the mid 10s
(C) range. This along with breezy south to southwest winds at the
surface and just above at 850 mb will also lead to warm overnight
lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Hot and windy conditions will continue into Friday...with highs
getting back to near 100. Another round of storms looks to develop
in eastern Colorado but at this point the upper level flow should
drive them more to the north and would keep most of the activity
out of southwest Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Another hot, dry, and windy day on tap for Saturday with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. The remnants of Hurricane Bud are still
forecast to stay mainly to the west in the Colorado rockies.
Things turn interesting as we get farther into the weekend and
early next week as a blocking high stays pretty much in place
over the SE US and a large upper level low stays over the Pacific
Northwest and Rockies potentially for all of the next work week.
If this is the case, there is good reason to believe we will have
some decent chances of rain for several days during the work week.
Flow will be out of the southwest with tropical waves rotating
around the larger upper level low. This will combine with a decent
baroclinic zone and upslope flow in western Kansas. With this
setup we will certainly see cooler temperatures, more cloud cover,
and the possibility of storms containing tropical moisture which
would lead to decent rainfall amounts. The European model is a
little more bullish with rain than the GFS but both are hinting at
decent rainfall amounts. Obviously a lot of this will be
determined by how the upper levels shape up but both models have
been staying consistent with this setup.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Gusty south to southeast winds at near 20 knots will fall back to
around 15 knots after sunset as the boundary layer winds decouple
this evening. Both the NAM and RAP are in good agreement with a
low level jet of near 50 knots developing overnight so will be
including a period of low level wind shear into all the TAFS
overnight. Gusty south winds at 20 to 25 knots will return to
western Kansas between 15z and 18z Friday. BUFR soundings
indicating VFR conditions overnight and Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 99 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 73 101 73 95 / 10 0 10 0
EHA 70 98 70 92 / 30 0 10 10
LBL 74 99 72 95 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 76 100 75 97 / 10 0 0 0
P28 76 100 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
913 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
First wave of convection approaching Duluth/Hibbing for some
thunderstorms. The stronger line of storms is just entering
eastern North Dakota and is expected to move through our forecast
area after 1 AM in the west and later further east.
UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Updated aviation section below for the 06Z TAF update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
An elevated warm front will lift into the Northland tonight and
kick off a stormy and wet stretch of weather through early next
week. Strong to severe thunderstorms tonight will transition to a
warm and humid Friday with ongoing lower chances of showers and
storms.
An upper ridge will move through the Northland from west to east
tonight. A subtle shortwave will move in from the west very late
this afternoon and this evening, bringing elevated showers and
possibly some thunder. An elevated warm front will then lift into
the Northland and the low-level jet will ramp up. Deeper large
scale forcing for ascent will set up during the wee hours of the
morning from falling heights in the wake of the passing upper
ridge, with the strong southerly low-level jet, and additional
shortwaves lifting through the region. This forcing is expected to
trigger more threatening thunderstorms by the wee hours of Friday
morning. Heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and lots of lightning
are expected given the environment. There will be deep elevated-
based MUCAPE of up to 3000 J/kg, precipitable water values around
1.75 inches, 30 to 40 knots of 0 to 6 km wind shear, and a nearly
40 knot low-level jet. Anticipate early on organized thunderstorms
with organized updrafts with lots of lightning, some hail, and
heavy rain. Fortunately, the 20 to 30 knot west-southwest mean
flow and building in capping behind the elevated boundary should
limit the flooding threat because of the progressive movement of
the storms and lack of training. These storms will likely coalesce
into clusters or an MCS going closer to dawn over northwest WI
into the MN Arrowhead, which means the threat will transition to
strong wind gusts and heavy rain.
Confidence in the forecast drops off after the morning. Imagine
once the low-level jet winds down, there will be a lack of forcing
to trigger additional storms. If there are additional shortwaves,
which does not look likely, then those storms could provide the
necessary forcing. Residual cloud cover from the overnight
convection will limit daytime heating and instability, but since
it will be quite warm and humid with strong south-southwest flow,
it is possible showers and weaker storms could develop during the
middle of the day. The best chances for storms will be east of the
warm front, which will mean northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota
Arrowhead, as well as later in the day in central and north-
central Minnesota when a cold front nears the area. While there
may be plenty of CAPE for thunderstorms, the lack of deep layer
wind shear will limit the threat of strong storms during the
daytime.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
The main focus of the extended is the shower/thunderstorm
activity through the weekend into early next week, and associated
potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain/flash flooding.
This will be followed by dry and quiet conditions mid next week.
Initially, a slightly positively tilted trough will be situated
across the Western United States, while a cutoff rotates around
northern Manitoba. A jet streak will dig into the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday, this will cutoff a low over the Pacific
Northwest/ Intermountain West while the cutoff over northern
Manitoba remains nearly over the same place. This setup will allow
several shortwaves to eject across Northern Plains into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. At the surface low pressure will be
nearly co-located with the 500 hPa cutoff over northern Manitoba,
while its cold front slowly slides across Minnesota. This will
trigger shower and thunderstorm activity across the Northland
early Saturday morning, which will continue through Saturday. This
setup will nearly be the same through Sunday as the cold front
stalls across the region. Flow will remain generally out of the
south-southwest, which will advect mild and very moist air
originating from the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoint values will range
anywhere from the mid 50s to the low to mid 70s with the mid to
upper 50 degree dewpoints generally confined behind the cold front
across far northern Minnesota. A very humid airmass. Precipitable
water values will range anywhere from 1.5 to 2.0 inches, which
per SPC sounding climatology is near to above the 90th percentile
for MPX and INL for this time of year. In addition, models prog
anywhere from 1000 to 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE combined with 0-6 km
bulk shear around or above 40 knots. Based on the environment
severe storms will be possible in addition to heavy rainfall which
may produce flash flooding. However, specific kinematic details
should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in time as the
MCs activity tonight and on Friday, and subsequent boundaries will
likely impact where and when thunderstorms develop through the
weekend and early next week. Stay tuned as additional details
should be resolved as the weekend progresses. Based on the
scenario setting up, have the highest confidence in flooding/flash
flooding but uncertain on exactly where this will occur. The
heaviest rainfall at this point in time is anticipated Saturday
through Saturday night.
The cold front is expected to finally slide through the region on
Monday as a shortwave quickly moves across Central Canada.
Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected as a cold
front slides through. High pressure will build into the Northern
Plains behind the exiting shortwave. This will provide dry and
quiet weather for mid next week. Highs will generally be in the
70s and 80s across the region with the mildest readings on
Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be mild through the
weekend with readings ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s. The
rest of the extended will feature more comfortable readings with
lows ranging from the 50s to the low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
VFR with increasing chances for MVFR and eventually IFR as showers
and thunderstorms move through the forecast area. Timing the
showers/storms is very difficult. The HRRR suggests an initial
wave of showers which are observed on radar, but a second wave
arrives my morning and that is the batch that the worst portion of
the TAF is attempting to resolve.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 74 60 76 / 80 60 30 60
INL 61 76 59 79 / 80 30 20 30
BRD 65 83 65 80 / 50 40 30 60
HYR 63 80 66 85 / 80 70 50 50
ASX 56 78 59 80 / 90 80 40 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolfe
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...
&&
.AVIATION...
Currently VFR at all terminals under breezy south/southeasterly
winds. Convection this afternoon was a bit more isolated and did not
progress as far west as yesterday, and has already dissipated for
the evening. Expect very similar conditions overnight tonight as last
night. MVFR CIGs develop at AUS/SAT/SSF by 6z to 8z Friday morning.
CIGs may lower to IFR for an hour or two at these sites, with AUS
having the highest probability of this. MVFR CIGs at DRT are expected
to develop around 10z Friday. All sites will return to VFR by late
Friday morning as the stratus scatters out. Tomorrow afternoon will
again feature isolated to scattered pop-up showers and a thunderstorm
or two. These may reach the general vicinity of AUS/SAT/SSF so have
included VCSH starting at 20z Friday afternoon. Winds will remain out
of the southeast for the entire forecast period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing mostly east of the I-35 corridor and south of the
I-10 corridor east of San Antonio. These storms were moving northwest
at about 25 mph and producing occasional lightning. Also similar to
yesterday, 20+ degree dewpoint depressions and a slight inverted V
sounding situation in the lowest 150 mb could result in some gusty
winds of over 40 mph as these cells collapse. We did see some minor
wind damage due to a microburst yesterday near San Antonio, and that
chance exists again today due to very similar conditions. TTU-WRF and
HRRR outcomes show the majority, if not all of this coverage
diminishing by 00Z.
Another day of very similar conditions is expected tomorrow with late
morning to early afternoon CI, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, and the potential for gusty winds and some brief
heavy rain.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The bulk of the very moist tropical air mass will begin arriving in
the eastern CWA Sunday which will begin the multi-day chances for
precip. While the overall forecast details have not changed
substantially, some model changes have been noted that stand out.
For instance, the 12Z ECMWF deterministic model is producing
significantly more QPF than in previous runs, with upwards of 12
inches possible over both the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains.
This is obviously a considerable increase in QPF generation through
the upcoming week. This is largely due to its depiction of stalling
the parent upper low over the CWA and bringing round after round of
slow moving areas of heavy rainfall. However, the validity of this
outcome is highly in question, mostly due to the fact that both the
GFS and Canadian are only producing about a quarter of the QPF thus
making it inconsistent with other model depictions. Also, the ECMWF
doesn`t even agree with itself, as a standard deviation in PoP
potential is 14+ when comparing the individual ECMWF ensemble
members. This is likely due to disagreement in individual members on
resolving coherent lifting mechanisms. Thus, with better model
consistency in the MEN/GFS and further confidence in the lower values
with the Canadian being in fairly close agreement, opted to keep the
forecast QPF at what was advertised with the previous forecast.
However, if the ECMWF overall synoptic set up turns out to be
correct, at the very least, the possibility for PoPs may linger
further into the week. Possibly as long as Friday. If this indeed
does occur, isolated amounts may be need to be adjusted higher than
the 5-7 inches currently advertised. More detail will be available
as this event begins to enter the short term model domain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 94 75 92 75 / 10 20 - 30 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 93 74 92 74 / 10 30 - 30 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 94 74 92 74 / 10 30 - 30 20
Burnet Muni Airport 72 92 73 91 73 / 10 20 - 20 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 76 96 77 / - - 0 20 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 93 74 92 74 / 10 20 - 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 74 96 74 93 75 / - 20 - 30 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 74 95 74 93 74 / 10 30 - 30 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 94 74 92 75 / 10 30 20 40 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 95 75 92 76 / 10 20 - 30 20
Stinson Muni Airport 75 94 75 92 76 / 10 30 - 30 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...BMW
Synoptic/Grids...Platt
Public Service/Data Collection...YB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
809 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update: The precipitation from earlier has moved off into
North Dakota along with the cold front. However, a few showers are
developing over mainly our western zones, likely with help from
the upper jet still over the region. Cannot rule out a lightning
strike or two with some of these, but no severe weather is
expected at this time.
Have allowed the Lake Wind Advisory to expire at 8 PM MDT as winds
have diminished across the area behind the front. Otherwise, the
only real change to the inherited forecast was to tweak the pops
for the overnight hours to better reflect radar trends. ConsShort
and the HRRR seemed to have the best solutions this evening, so
trended toward those. Breezy west winds can be expected tomorrow,
but currently looks to be below Lake Wind Advisory criteria.
Hickford
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front will sweep across the region
today with a wind switch to the northwest along the way. Expect
winds to increase from the northwest for a few hours, making for
rough boating conditions for a time along the waters of Fort Peck
Lake. As such, have hoisted the Lake Wind Advisory for this
afternoon into the early part of the evening.
A shower, perhaps a thunderstorm or two, are possible with the
front. As the front approaches the Montana/North Dakota border in
the afternoon during peak diurnal heating at a time when the cap
may break, a close call exists as to whether thunderstorms will
develop over far eastern portions of the CWA versus mainly
remaining in North Dakota border. Further confidence exists in
Sheridan County this afternoon. Nam bufkit forecast soundings show
2500 J/kg CAPE with a nice 0-6 km veering profile with in excess
of 40 kts of shear at Plentywood this afternoon. Thus, an isolated
severe supercell thunderstorm is possible here with a wind/hail
threat. Several mesoscale models also support this idea, but it is
difficult to say definitively whether storms will occur here or
remain in Canada and North Dakota. Next shift will have to monitor
radar trends closely nonetheless. Any storm threat will quickly
diminish by evening as they track east into North Dakota where
convection is more favored ahead of the front.
Steady, wetting rains at times are expected along with cooler
temperatures Friday night into the weekend as the upper low and
trough pattern prevails over the western U.S. The northern branch
of this upper level system will remain proximal to northeast
Montana to provide adequate lift and forcing for ascent. By early
next week, the main southern low will become cut off and remain
fairly situated over the western U.S. Northeast Montana will have
enough distance to remain fairly dry for that time period, as it
appears for now. Maliawco
&&
.AVIATION...
Expected Flight Category: VFR
Synopsis: Expect west- northwest winds and breezy conditions
through much of Friday. Dry weather is likely through much of
Friday, before another disturbance brings showers and
thunderstorms to KGDV and possibly KSDY by 21Z Friday. Ceilings
are expected to remain generally VFR today for all sites.
Winds: Generally west at 5-10 kts overnight, then west-northwest
at 10-15 kts during the day Friday. Gusty and erratic winds are
possible if any thunderstorms develop over the TAF sites Friday
afternoon.
Hickford
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
955 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
A line of thunderstorms is holding together across northwest
Kansas/southwest Nebraska. This observation backs up the latest
HRRR which pulls convection into the southwestern sections of the
area (Furnas/Gosper/Harlan/Phillips/Rooks counties) during the
overnight hours before diminishing. Confidence is not overly high
that these storms can hang on for a long time with the dry low and
mid levels across the central part of NE and northern KS. Thus
have only included slight chances for thunderstorms. These storms
have had a history of strong outflow winds, which is not
surprising in a high DCAPE environment the area is in.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
The heat has settled in today and temperatures have risen well
into the 90s this afternoon across our region. Visible satellite
imagery reveals mainly clear skies across our area with a little
haze/smoke in portions of western Nebraska from fires in CO/WY.
The main story weatherwise through the weekend is a several day
stretch of hot temperatures and breezy/windy conditions.
The pattern aloft featured high pressure from the desert southwest
north through the Central Plains, while an upstream closed low and
upper trough was translating through the western Canadian provinces
into the northern Rockies. An associated surface low was deepening
in western SD, tightening the surface gradient across the Plains
resulting in breezy/windy conditions. Wind gusts today have averaged
25 to 35 mph and winds are not expected to diminish much overnight
before ramping back up on Friday.
Generally expect dry conditions tonight and tomorrow, as the main
convection should remain to our north and west along the surface
trough and boundary. This being said, would not be completely
surprised if an isolated storm developed in the warm air advection
regime aided by a strong low level jet late tonight/toward Friday
morning and the RAP/GFS also hints at this. Overall confidence is
not high and in the end may just have some ACCAS and plan to keep
things dry for now.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to average in the low/mid 70s,
which will be near record warm minimum temperatures. The current
record warm min for Hastings on June 15th is 72 degrees (set in
1953, 1952) and for Grand Island the current record is 76 degrees
(set in 1946). Then on Friday, expect another hot day with temps in
the 95-100 degree range, and as hot as it will be, these temps will
be shy of current records which top 105 degrees. Our northern zones
could see a reprieve from the gusty winds with a surface boundary
in the vicinity. The NAM suggests the potential for convective
development along the boundary and will need to monitor, but the
better focus for storms remains more favorable along the high
plains and this weakening activity may edge into our western
zones Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
As mentioned above, storms which develop to our west Friday evening
may reach our area Friday night. Aside from the small precip
chances, heat will persist through the weekend with highs averaging
in the 90s. Of note is that as hot as it will be, heat indices will
remain around ambient temperatures.
The pattern doesn`t change much til Sunday afternoon/night when the
Northern Plains cold front reaches the Central Plains bringing
increasing chances for thunderstorms. Details and timing of storms
will be refined as we get closer. Heading into next week, it`ll be
noticeably cooler behind the front especially on Monday and
guidance is trending cooler suggesting some areas only reaching
the 70s for highs. More seasonal June weather will settle in for
much of next week as an upper trough situates over the Rockies and
this pattern will be more active with intermittent chances for
storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
The main aviation forecast concern is the breezy south winds and
then low level winds shear tonight at both terminals as the low
level jet increases. Skies are expected to be mostly clear and if
some clouds to impact the area, it is expected to be high cirrus.
Breezy south winds will persist through the TAF period at both
terminals.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Billings Wright
SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Billings Wright
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
838 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Valentine gets a heat advisory for a few hours this afternoon. The
heat abates by 8 pm.
The RAP, HRRR and NAMnest models indicate thunderstorms across the
front range and Laramie range will move northeast this evening
affecting wrn Neb. Isolated to perhaps scattered storm coverage is
expected west of highway 83. If the storms can survive the strong
700mb cap this evening, then isolated storm coverage could develop
for a few hours late tonight east of highway 83.
More prolific storm coverage is expected Friday afternoon across
Colo and WY which should move through wrn Neb in the evening and
reach highway 83 around midnight. Scattered storm coverage is
expected west of highway 83 which becomes isolated east of 83. A
cold front should move through wrn and ncntl Neb Friday morning,
perhaps providing focus for storm development Friday evening.
There is little change in the temperature forecast tonight and
Friday. Blended guidance plus bias correction suggested lows in the
60s to around 70 with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
The NAM and GFS suggest a portion of the moisture from Pacific
tropical storm "Bud" will move across northwest Neb Saturday night;
a day sooner than previously suggested by the models. The models
raise precipitable water above 1.5 inches which should support a
locally heavy rainfall threat. WPC has responded with a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall generally north of a line from Alliance
to Valentine. The models carry this moisture across the remainder of
wrn and ncntl Neb Sunday.
Although a cold front will be draped across Neb Saturday and Sunday,
the forcing is mostly west of this region and emanates from an upper
low across the Wrn U.S.. The NAM and more so, the GFS, favor the
Nebraska Panhandle, wrn SD and ern WY for the best rainfall with the
western Sandhills on the edge of substantial rainfall.
The model blend temperature forecast Monday and beyond is cooler
than the previously forecast. The model consensus indicates
substantial cooling aloft with h700mb temperatures falling 10C or
cooler. Cooler temperatures are expected at 500mb also, generally
around -8 to -9 C. This cooler air aloft could support showers but
moisture is limited. Rain chances Tuesday and beyond are 20 percent
or less.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 835 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Some isolated thunderstoprms will try to move east into western
Nebraska this evening. Because of their isolated nature have just
carried vcts at both KVTN and KLBF. Mostly high clouds and some
mid clouds associated with thunderstorms. Storms are capable of
strong gusty winds as they pass. Skies will clear out after
midnight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
432 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT
Thu Jun 14 2018
Main forecast story in the short term lies with the building heat
as we head toward and into the weekend. Large scale mid/upper
level ridge will align itself along much of the MS and lower OH
River Valleys during most of the short term. Surface dew points in
the 70-75 range will combine with afternoon temps into the
lower/mid 90s to produce heat index values from 100 to 104 some
areas on Friday, esp se MO/far sw IL/far wrn KY. Heat indices from
100 to 105 will then spread farther n/e across the forecast area
on Saturday and Sunday. It appears that heat advisories will
probably be needed over the weekend as many should be headed out
of doors with the low/no precip forecast in place. In addition, it
is quite early in the season for this type of heat, and many folk
may not be quite acclimated to such heat yet.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
The upper ridge should begin to break down and sink to the south
into the Gulf states region early next week. This should ease the
main heat wave in our area, and will bring our forecast region
closer to the mid level westerlies. The flow may become a bit
more nwly with time as a H50 ridge builds in over the nrn Plains
once the remnants of "Bud" make their way through that region.
This should allow for a sfc front to work its way south
toward/possibly into the region by the mid week time frame and
bring our next decent shot at at least some sct
shower/thunderstorm activity.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Latest HRRR carries scntl MO convection and potentially impacts
KCGI/KPAH terminals later this evening. However, we`ll monitor
trends as HRRR has handled overall well but been a little overdone
on its radar coverage/solutions. Patchy fog is possible again late
tonight all sites, with daytime cu potential in low VFR range for
tmrw.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
914 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area from the north tonight
and Friday, with mainly fair and warmer weather for the
weekend. Any storm coverage this weekend is expected to be
isolated.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 910 PM EDT Thursday...
Surface front remains stuck near the VA/NC border with MSAS
showing a sharp gradient in dewpoints from much drier air just
north of the boundary to almost tropical values to the south.
Also seeing some residual instability lingering from Southside
VA into parts of northwest NC. However best low level convergence
remains in a band just south of the area where still seeing a
few showers. Latest HRRR suggests some potential for added
isolated showers mainly southeast but could be overdone given
lack of added focus so only leaving in isolated pops through
midnight. Otherwise bumped up clouds for a few hours as well
southeast per latest satellite pics while leaving elsewhere
mainly clear with some patchy fog in the valleys despite dry
advection. Lows turning more comfortable espcly western half
where should see values fall into the 50s with low/mid 60s
southeast where dewpoints will be slower to fall.
Previous discussion as of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Surface cold front along the VA/NC border will move south of the
area tonight. This will allow for a drier airmass to infiltrate
the area from the north with dewpoints falling into the 50s, and
possibly the 40s for southeast WV and the Highlands of VA. This
change in airmass will allow for lowering of the humidity and
transition toward a relatively dry forecast for the next several
days.
Will maintain low chance threat for a shower or storm along and
south of the VA/NC border (mainly south of U.S. 58) this
evening associated with the surface front, otherwise anticipate
fair weather over a good portion of our CWA through Friday. An
inverted trough will linger over the NC mountains Friday, so an
isolated late afternoon shower/thundershower possible for the
High Country.
Temperatures tonight should dip close to the seasonal norm with
overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s, and highs Friday ranging
from the 70s mountains to the 80s piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...
Upper ridge amplifies and moves east through the period with 594dm
heights over the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Will maintain low
probability of showers and thunderstorms along the southern Blue
Ridge for Saturday afternoon and evening. Subtle lee-side troughing
on Saturday and Sunday may also provide some low level convergence.
Surface high moves off shore by Sunday. Weak southwest flow on the
west side of the high will begin to return deeper moisture into the
Mid Atlantic region.
Confidence above average on temperatures and average on
precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Above average agreement between models and in consecutive runs for
this time frame. Large upper ridge will cover much of the
eastern United States with above normal 500 MB heights and 850MB
temperatures. Warmer air aloft will limit and cap the potential
for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on Sunday
and Monday. Bufkit forecast soundings from the GFS do show
enough surface and low level heating to break the cap each day
over southern Virginia and northern North Carolina.
Otherwise no organized forcing through Tuesday. May see the upper
ridge flatten by Thursday, but similar to the ECMWF ridge will be
slow to give way.
Average confidence on all elements.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...
Mainly VFR through the valid 24 hour TAF period as a weak
surface cold front slides south of the region tonight. Still may
see isolated showers redevelop over the next couple of hours
around KDAN, but too iffy to include in the forecast at this
point.
High pressure following the front from the Ohio Valley will
strengthen as it drifts overhead for the end of the week.
Clockwise flow around the high will result in light northerly
winds tonight, becoming light and variable for Friday. Some
residual low clouds may linger across the south near the front
early Friday with just some spotty mid deck around elsewhere.
Any leftover low clouds should quickly give way to a few high
based cumulus Friday afternoon with heating.
Some fog is also possible in the mountain valleys late tonight,
but coverage should be limited to the deeper river valleys with
the potential for a few hours of IFR at airports like KLWB.
However given ongoing dry advection and forecast low dewpoints,
will continue to leave out mention early Friday morning for
now.
.Extended Aviation Discussion...
Moderate to high confidence for VFR through the upcoming
weekend.
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region this
weekend into early next week with overall VFR conditions
remaining in place Saturday through Monday. Isolated mainly
late day mountain showers and storms could occur by Sunday into
Monday but should not deter the good flying conditions. An
approaching cold front from the northwest may finally erode the
ridge enough to allow for better coverage of convection by late
Tuesday which could result in a bit more widespread sub-VFR by
the end of the day. Otherwise any late night visibility
restrictions due to fog should be limited to the mountain
valleys impacting locations like KLWB/KBCB, but for only a few
hours around daybreak each morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Record Highs Record warm Mins
June 17
Bluefield WV 87 in 2015 69 in 2015
Danville VA 99 in 1981 73 in 1981
Lynchburg VA 96 in 1944 73 in 1939
Roanoke VA 96 in 1944 74 in 1912
Blacksburg VA 88 in 1994 67 in 2015
June 18
Bluefield WV 90 in 2007 68 in 2015
Danville VA 96 in 2007 74 in 2000
Lynchburg VA 96 in 1944 71 in 1925
Roanoke VA 97 in 1925 73 in 1921
Blacksburg VA 88 in 2014 65 in 2004
June 19
Bluefield WV 88 in 2012 69 in 1984
Danville VA 99 in 1970 72 in 1970
Lynchburg VA 97 in 1944 73 in 1925
Roanoke VA 97 in 1944 73 in 2014
Blacksburg VA 89 in 1984 65 in 2015
June 20
Bluefield WV 90 in 2012 71 in 2009
Danville VA 97 in 1970 73 in 2009
Lynchburg VA 99 in 1964 74 in 1924
Roanoke VA 101 in 1931 76 in 2009
Blacksburg VA 90 in 1994 68 in 2009
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday...
The NOAA weather radio transmitter in Hinton, West Virginia that
is WXM72 and broadcasting at a frequency of 162.425 MHz is off
the air. Parts are on order to repair the transmitter, but there
is no known time of restoration. We apologize for any
inconvenience.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...AMS
EQUIPMENT...DS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1005 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...
The isolated convection has diminished with the setting sun this
evening, and aside from some convective debris from recently
decayed convection over SW MS/SE LA that is rotating WNW around
the center of the dirty upper ridge over the Lower MS Valley, a
mostly clear sky is expected for much of the overnight hours.
However, the short term progs continue to suggest that some low
stratus will develop late tonight over portions of Lower E TX
before advecting into portions of Wcntrl LA after daybreak Friday,
and thus have made some minor tweaks to the sky grids to reflect
this thinking. Since rainfall was quite spotty earlier today over
the SE sections of Ncntrl LA, have also removed patchy FG wording
for these areas, as the latest HRRR and 00Z progs suggest little
if any FG development overnight, especially given the fact that
convective debris may linger over these areas. Expecting a very
warm night with min temps hard pressed to fall much below the mid
70s, aside from the more rural and protected areas.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018/
AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will continue through much of the 15/00Z TAF
period. Isolated convection will remain possible through early
evening across portions of extreme NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/Ncntrl LA,
before diminishing with the loss of heating/instability. Some
residual cu and cirrus will linger though across portions of the
region overnight, with low MVFR/possibly IFR cigs developing late
over Deep E TX, before spreading NNE into E TX along/S of I-20 by
12Z Friday, possibly affecting the TYR/GGG/LFK terminals. This
should be short-lived though as these cigs should quickly scatter
out by mid-morning, with a sct cu field developing areawide by
late morning/midday. Isolated convection will be possible mainly
during the afternoon/early evening Friday once again primarily
affecting portions of Deep E TX/Ncntrl and NE LA, but confidence
remains too low to include in the LFK/MLU terminals attm. SSE
winds 3-6kts tonight will become SSW 5-9kts after 15Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 95 75 94 / 10 20 10 30
MLU 74 94 74 92 / 10 30 20 40
DEQ 73 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 75 95 74 93 / 10 10 10 20
ELD 73 94 73 93 / 10 20 10 30
TYR 75 95 74 93 / 10 20 10 20
GGG 75 94 73 94 / 10 20 10 20
LFK 73 93 74 93 / 10 30 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15/07