Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/14/18


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 At 3 PM, high pressure was providing mostly sunny to sunny skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dew points were very comfortable ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Further to the west a thunderstorm complex was located across southern South Dakota. The HRRR seems to have the best handle on this complex. It rapidly moves it east across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa late this afternoon and into northeast Iowa and possibly southeast Minnesota this evening. With this system moving into a much drier air mass, the HRRR gradually dissipates as it moves east. This makes sense, so only went with rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range for this evening. As the low level jet strengthens tonight, another thunderstorm complex will develop over southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa somewhere between midnight and 3 AM. As this jet veers late tonight, this complex will move east across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. It will then shift southeast across eastern Iowa. With many of the CAM models showing that this complex will most likely remain southwest and south of the area, kept rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 From Thursday night into Friday, a warm front will move northward through the region. This front will be the focus for additional showers and storms. However, the location of this activity is uncertain. The GFS, NAM, and Canadian suggest that they will affect the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is the progressive with this ridge and it keeps much of the area dry. The instability along and south of this front will climb into the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, there may be an outflow boundary/boundaries from any convection from the previous night which may help in the development of additional storms in the afternoon. With the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear weak, any severe weather threat would be likely pulse in nature. From Friday night into Saturday night, the models continue to struggle on the northern periphery of the ridge. This results in much uncertainty on where additional showers and storms may develop. At this time, the highest probabilities would be north of Interstate 90. With the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear weak, any severe weather threat would be likely pulse in nature. Temperatures across the region will range from the lower 80s to lower 90s on Friday and in the lower and mid 90s for the weekend. There are even some hints in the ECMWF that these temperatures may be a bit too conservative. With dew points climbing to around 70, heat indices will likely range from 95 to 105. This will likely result in the potential for the possibility of some Heat Advisories being issued. From Sunday afternoon into Monday, a cold front will move slowly southeast through the area. This will result in showers and storms, and a return to more seasonable temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Mid level clouds continue to increase from the west, with a few remaining showers that could just clip RST the next few hours. Those clouds will gradually drift east through the day on Thursday, while additional showers and storms develop south of LSE and RST late tonight and into the morning. Some of those could get close to RST or LSE by midday or early afternoon before waning, though confidence is quite low about the northward extend of any precipitation. As such, VFR conditions should prevail for both locations the next 24 hours. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Boyne AVIATION...Lawrence
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
752 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... HRRR model did a good job of showing the more active part of the Mississippi MCS staying west of Alabama and convection struggling to get going over central Alabama. Better instability has now shifted south of I-20 where surface based CAPE values are now running 2500-3000 J/kg. Will keep highest rain chances over the southwest counties for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening due to proximity of MCS. HRRR keeps some shower activity around throughout the night and will keep low pops after midnight. 58/rose .LONG TERM... Thursday through Tuesday. Mid-level latent heat release associated with today`s convection will help cause some amplification to the initially weak shortwave over the area, resulting in the formation of an MCV. Lift associated with this feature as well as remaining outflow boundaries and a low-level pre-frontal/lee trough stretching down the East Coast from low pressure near Maine will result in enhanced shower/storm chances south of this feature on Thursday. Meanwhile northerly flow/subsidence and due a mid-level ridge building in from the Plains will result in some drier air moving aloft and reduced rain chances north of the feature. Models vary in the exact placement of this features, but generally suggest enhanced rain chances near the I-85 corridor Thursday and somewhat reduced coverage for areas along and north of I-20. However, still expect at least widely scattered development north of I-20 as well given moist low-levels, strong instability, and a stalled out front over TN. High SBCAPE and DCAPE values across the northern counties would suggest a conditional threat for microbursts with any isolated strong updrafts that form, however warm air/subsidence aloft associated with the ridge and dry air entrainment will be limiting factors probably preventing an isolated severe threat. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian have all trended towards pushing the MCV away from the area into south Georgia/north Florida by Friday allowing the mid-level ridge to continue to build in, while the NAM is an outlier in keeping the MCV over Central Alabama. Will carry the highest PoPs in the southeast counties closest to the MCV and surface trough. Some further reductions in PoPs across the north may be necessary if model agreement on the MCV position improves. The ECMWF and GFS are trending stronger with the mid- level ridge building over the eastern CONUS and centered near the Ohio Valley during the extended period. This results in drier air aloft over the forecast area as the tropical moisture plume in the western Gulf stays well west of the area. Began to trend PoPs downward and temperatures upward. These may need to be trended further if model trends continue; but models have not been consistent with this yet. Shortwaves rotating around the ridge from the east would still result in some contribution to diurnal activity, however. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Afternoon convection is winding down, with only a few scattered showers/storms persisting across the state. Convection should continue to decrease through the evening hours. Some low stratus and BR are possible once again tonight late especially where it has stormed. TSRA are possible to develop once again on Thursday afternoon as we remain in a hot and wet pattern. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each day through the week. Cannot rule out at least isolated coverage during the overnight hours. Light fog and/or low clouds are possible each morning, and most likely will be near locations that receive rainfall the previous day/evening. RH values remain well above critical values. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 89 68 92 69 / 30 30 20 20 20 Anniston 68 88 69 91 69 / 40 40 20 30 20 Birmingham 69 89 71 92 72 / 40 40 20 30 20 Tuscaloosa 70 92 72 94 72 / 40 40 20 30 20 Calera 68 89 70 91 70 / 40 40 30 30 20 Auburn 69 86 71 89 71 / 40 60 30 50 20 Montgomery 69 89 71 91 72 / 50 60 30 50 20 Troy 70 88 71 90 71 / 50 60 30 50 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$ 58/32/08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
931 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated grids/zones to remove mention of precipitation along Rio Grande as convection has dissipated with loss of heating. Radar indicating isolated showers already forming in marine zones. Thus 20% POPs looks good there. Expect coverage of precipitation to increase late tonight to more scattered as moisture continues to increase, per GOES Total Precipitable Water imagery. Surface pressure gradient is stronger than expected this evening, thus updated winds to increase values to reflect current conditions. Expect winds to gradually diminish overnight. No other changes. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 707 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/ DISCUSSION... See 00z TAF discussion below. AVIATION... Will maintain mention of -tsra along Rio Grande until 02z before ending. Otherwise expect MVFR ceilings to develop along the coast by mid evening (02-04z) spreading inland during the overnight hours. Light showers will develop along the coast between (09-11z) progressing inland with the sea breeze during the afternoon. Due to isolated nature of these showers only included VCTS in TAFs. MVFR ceilings will become VFR after 14z Thursday. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... Currently, isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are developing and moving across the Brush Country this afternoon. Most showers are weak and will quickly fall apart due to limited instability and source of lift. Although the cu fields are clearing along the Coastal Bend as a marine layer progresses inland this afternoon, not much in the way of convection has been initiated as of yet along the sea breeze. With the latest HRRR run having shower and thunderstorm activity trending downward compared to this morning`s runs, a few slightly stronger showers and thunderstorms could still develop within the next few hours along the encroaching boundary. If showers do develop a few could linger across the Brush Country this evening, but confidence is decreasing. Otherwise, expect the upper level trough to continue to sit and wobble over the Texas Gulf Coast through the short term. The mid and low level southeasterly flow will continue to advect moisture into South Texas increasing PWATs to around 1.7 to near 2 inches resulting in increasing cloud cover overnight and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm tomorrow morning through the afternoon. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Mid-level weakness continues across the western gulf and western Texas as mid-level ridge begins to build into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. Sufficient moisture available along with weak capping will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the weekend. Activity should be typical morning showers moving inland with the sea breeze. Did cut back POPs for Saturday as deep moisture remains well south of the area. Focus shifts to the tropical wave NHC is currently monitoring in the western Caribbean Sea. NHC currently maintains a 20% of tropical development for the next 5 days as this wave slowly moves into the southern Gulf. It is with this disturbance that deeper moisture is expected to move farther into the western Gulf increasing rain chances late in the weekend into early next week for South Texas. PWATs are expected to increase to near 2.0-2.3 inches during this period which nears the 99th percentile and +2SD of normal for the month of June. This amount of moisture could easily lead to periods of moderate and even locally heavy rainfall from any showers or storms that move into South Texas, with general amounts of 2 to 4 inches and localized higher amounts possible. However, confidence remains low on which areas will see these higher amounts should any changes occur with the development of the wave. Rain chances are expected to slowly diminish mid to late week next week. In addition, hazardous conditions may develop across the waters with an increase in seas as the tropical wave moves into the Gulf. Elevated rip current risks will be possible as increased swells and swell periods may develop from the disturbance. As for temperatures, warm and humid conditions continue through Saturday, with temperatures gradually cooling through early next week due to the expected increase in moisture and cloud coverage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 92 77 92 77 / 20 30 20 40 20 Victoria 74 96 75 94 75 / 20 30 20 40 20 Laredo 76 99 77 99 76 / 10 20 10 20 10 Alice 74 97 74 96 75 / 20 30 20 40 20 Rockport 80 91 80 91 80 / 20 30 20 40 30 Cotulla 74 98 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10 Kingsville 75 96 77 95 76 / 20 30 20 40 20 Navy Corpus 80 91 80 90 80 / 20 30 20 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ JM/75...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
649 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/ Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Storm chances tonight into Thursday along with the heatwave Friday into the weekend were the main focus of the forecast. Leaned closer the latest couple of runs of the HRRR, but most of the hires models are in good agreement with timing and location of storms/showers this evening into Thursday. Friday through Monday, leaned slightly closer to the GFS/NAM as thinking the ECMWF is too warm with the temps and too dry with the dew points. Tonight into Thursday...weak convection over South Dakota looks to trickle into northern Iowa this evening. The latest HRRR/ARW/NMM/RAP continue this thundershower activity through around 02-04z tonight along the Highway 20 corridor before dissipating. Confident to insert low pops through the evening across portions of northern Iowa to coincide with the HRRR as it has performed fairly well recently. However, low confidence with anything measurable as there remains a deep dry layer for precipitation to contend with before reaching the ground. Thus, QPF remains NIL through 06z. Better forcing moves into the state past 06z tonight with a decent slug of 925-700mb theta-E advection. Little concern with the severe potential overnight into Thursday morning due to the lack of instability and weak shear. Some pockets of brief moderate to heavy rain are possible b/t 06-15z Thursday as precipitable water values range around 1.5 inches and warm layer cloud depths near 13kft. The slight delay in the system to depart on Thursday will keep max temperatures a bit cooler than previously anticipated as cloud cover hangs around into the afternoon. Friday through Monday...Hot and humid conditions along with winds remain on track during this period. The most notable changes were to the winds/gusts Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon as deep mixing develops both days providing some gusts to 30 mph. Increased winds roughly 3-5 knots, especially over the western half of the CWA where the mixing looks to be slightly deeper. The other issue is with the stronger winds, the dew points are likely to mix and thus be slightly drier than previous forecast. Not a significant change to the ongoing dew point forecast over the central to eastern sections of the CWA, but lowered dew points across the west slightly with the stronger winds anticipated. With the large upper level ridge in place through weekend over the state, a few weak shortwaves may ride the ridge and bring cloud cover and storm chances to far northern Iowa into southern Minnesota. One more notable shortwave looks to bring storms b/t 06-12z Saturday but will quickly move east and allow the breezy and hot conditions to return. The WAA persists Friday night and again Saturday night into Sunday and likely to keep minimum temperatures from dropping off too drastically. Kept with the mid- 70s for much of the forecast area through the weekend and not allowing any relief to the daytime heat. Another concern to the heatwave is Monday where the ECMWF and GFS are coming into better agreement with the slower progression of the trough. Confidence is increasing for another hot and humid day on Monday with highs remaining in the lower to middle 90s over the central to southern parts of the forecast area. Certainly a headline is likely to be needed over the weekend. Tuesday and Wednesday...Finally some relief to the heat with a cold front to move through the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The ECMWF stalls the front across southern Iowa into the middle of the week, while the GFS brings in a surface high pressure system during the same time frame. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/ Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 VFR conditions are in place across the forecast area and are expected to remain that way through the valid period. The only concern would be the inclusion of thunder with weak VFR convection into the early morning hours. Until confidence increases have kept either -SHRA VCTS to VCSH wording north /KFOD,KMCW,KALO/ with the potential too low farther south at the moment. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Podrazik AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
747 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Have removed thunderstorm chances through midnight across our forecast area. There are currently developing thunderstorms over eastern Colorado, but even if those hold together, which is questionable, they should not reach our western zones until after midnight. Will call for a slight chance of thunderstorms across our southwestern zones during the pre-dawn hours Thursday, should any of those Colorado storms hold together. The nose of the low level jet, which is another favorable area for overnight thunderstorms will be oriented northeast of our forecast area and thus will keep most of our forecast area dry tonight between these two areas of thunderstorms (low level jet storms to the northeast and existing evening high plains thunderstorms to our southwest.) && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Aloft: The Westerlies were zonal along the US-Can border per RAP analyses...aircraft data and 12Z RAOBs. A subtropical high was over NM. The Westerlies will begin to amplify thru tomorrow with modestly rising heights over the Nrn Plns as trofs deepen over the NW and NE USA. The developing ridge will drift just E of the rgn tomorrow... shifting the winds to SW. Surface: High pres has drifted out of Neb into IA. This high will cont E into the OH Vly thru tomorrow. A cool front has moved onshore in the Pac NW. This front will cont E with cyclogenesis occurring over SA/MT tonight. This will force the front that moved thru Mon to move back across the CWA as a warm front tonight. The CWA will then be in the warm sector tomorrow. We`ve been monitoring sct tstms thru the day over N-cntrl KS up into the HJH area. A svr tstm occurred over Rooks county. All that`s left is a remnant meso convective vortex (MCV) with some dissipating -RA. As of this writing the tstms are now E of HJH. Clds have been diminishing N and W of the dissipating tstm activity. Initiation of new tstms is highly uncertain the rest of the afternoon due to an overall lack of discernible forcing. In addition...HRRR soundings show considerable CIN. This makes initiation very doubtful. However...the low-lvl jet will intensify tonight and strengthening WAA/convergence could initiate sct tstms. 1-6 km shear will be 30-40 kt. The LLJ will advect a plume of rich 850 mb dwpts of 14-16C N into the CWA...resulting in a significant increase of MUCAPE to 3000 J/kg. A few tstms that develop out to the W could meander in toward midnight as well...but unsure of it`s intensity. Tonight: Variable sky between m/clear and p-m/cldy. The occurrence and coverage of tstms is highly uncertain. If they do occur...our POPs will be way to low (currently at 20% just because of a lack of model agreement due to weak forcing). Warm and muggy as the plume of dwpts in the mid-upr 60s advect back in. Thu: Sunny and hot! 850 mb temps will increase from 20-22C today to 28-30C tomorrow with 1000-500 mb thickness increasing from 579-582 to 588. Highs were increased above the 4 AM fcst and we are now fcstg widespread 99-102F...hottest from Hwy 136 down into N-cntrl KS. Winds will help as S winds gust 27-33 kt. This will be the 1st of 4 days of excessive heat. Be smart. Use heat-related precautions if you work or exercise outside or work in hot confined spaced with low ventilation. Stay in the AC as much as possible. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Aloft: Little has changed from prvs expectations. Amplification will cont with a blocking pattern developing. The subtropical high (referenced abv) will become parked over the Ern USA with a trof and cut-off low developing in the W. This will lock-in SW flow over the Cntrl Plns. Surface: The CWA will remain in the warm sector thru Sun. The cool front currently moving thru the Pac NW will cont E and move into Neb Fri. However...it is still fcst to become quasi- stationary from roughly IML-LBF-ONL as it become parallel to the flow aloft. The front is still fcst to slowly sag thru the CWA Sun night into Mon... and if organized tstms form on its cool side...outflow could effectively force the front further S into KS Tue. Temps: Hot thru Sun. The fcst init gradually decreases high temps each day...but am not buying it. There just isn`t any reason to for it. Temps were nudge back up a bit Fri-Sat...but our fcst is probably not hot enough for Sun. We`re advertising 91-96F...but it will probably be more like 95-102F. Turning cooler early next week...but Mon could still be in the low-mid 90s depending on the position of the front. The true cool-down will arrive Tue- Wed... but that will just be back to normal (i.e. where temps should be for mid Jun). Precip: Dry thru Sat for sure...and probably Sun. Sct tstms will be possible Sun night-Wed. While we have a mention as early as Sun afternoon W of Hwy 183 that may be optimistic. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 A strong low level jet is expected to develop this evening into tonight. The combination of the strong low level jet with the decreasing surface winds after midnight will result in strong low level shear mainly after midnight/1 am lasting through about 8 or 9 am. Gusty south winds are expected again on Thursday. VFR ceilings and visibility are expected to continue. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wesely SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1042 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low pressure exiting the region over northeast Ontario, while high pressure is moving east across Minnesota and Iowa. Despite ample dry air, diurnal cu popped over northern WI by late morning at the same time as wind gusts peak around 20-25 kts. With only cirrus upstream, forecast concerns mainly revolve around cloud trends and temps through Thursday. Surface ridge axis will be slowly shift across western and central WI tonight and eastern WI on Thursday. With the approaching ridge axis and nocturnal cooling setting in, the gusty winds should subside relatively quickly this evening. Otherwise, the jet stream should bring in some cirrus to northern WI at times tonight. Dont think it will impact temps much, and went with lows ranging from the upper 40s over the northwoods to the upper 50s over the Fox Valley. Winds will shift to the south on Thursday, and will start to see increasing moisture aloft from the southwest. This could lead to some mid-level clouds pushing into central WI during the morning. The airmass remains too stable for much of a threat of precip, however. High temps will be a degree or two warmer than today`s readings. .LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 The main concerns for this period include the various chances for showers and storms into early next week and their timing for potential severe storms/flooding, and the above normal temperatures associated with higher dew points on Saturday and Sunday. Beginning Thursday night, the synoptic pattern will set up with a building ridge over Wisconsin. Model guidance also shows a weak ripple in the ridge associated with an MCS which will cause the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern Minnesota and northern WI. There is also a mid-level jet that will cause a moisture push into southern Wisconsin. The problem between these two features is which one would impact the area first. There are signs of significant instability late Thursday night through Friday night, such as higher mid-level lapse rates and higher CAPE values, which could lead to scattered or isolated severe storms. However, depending on when and where the surface boundary resides, the showers and storms could impact either northern Wisconsin first or central Wisconsin first on Friday morning and then again in the late afternoon and overnight hours. Model guidance is having issues agreeing with these small scale features as it is too far out in the forecast. Friday afternoon through the rest of the weekend, high pressure will set up over the Middle Mississippi Valley leaving the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes regions in the ring of fire, allowing showers and storms to develop over these northern Midwest regions. The exact timing for precipitation is uncertain as models are not in agreement other than the placement over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Precipitable water values throughout the weekend and into early next week remain in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range raising concern for flooding over the area. Moving into Sunday night, remnants of Hurricane Bud will begin adding tropical moisture to the already moist air over the Upper Mississippi Valley, which will add to the flooding concern for Monday. The GFS and Canadian suggest a shortwave development Monday or Tuesday, pushing more moisture over the region for showers and thunderstorms to develop. With the ridge building on Saturday and Sunday over Wisconsin associated with the moist airmass, temperatures will reach above normal with higher relative humidity values. Combining these two readings, heat index values could reach into the upper 90s or even triple digits across the forecast area, which may lead to possible heat headlines. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 VFR conditions are expected for rest of tonight, Thursday and into Thursday evening as a weak area of high pressure to reside over the Great Lakes. Expect to see some mid and high clouds pass through over the next 24 hours from convection firing across the Plains/Upper Midwest. Any precipitation is forecast to hold off until later Thursday night into Friday when an upper-level disturbance interacts with WAA and an increasing low-level jet. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Hykin AVIATION.......AK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1159 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region tonight with a few showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and slightly drier weather is expected Thursday. A low pressure trough will cross the area late Thursday and Thursday evening with clouds and the chance of showers. A warming trend will begin Friday and continue on Saturday as high pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic region. A warm front may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with a cold front crossing the region Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1258 PM Update...Minor changes to the forecast. Convection still moving into the region but decreasing in intensity as it does so. 1020 PM Mesoscale Update...Strongest cell on radar at the moment is in Rutland County, VT. It has shown a sustained core and is showing signs of bowing. Will continue to watch this cell as it progresses eastward, as there is a low probability that a warning will need to be issued for northern Sullivan and/or southern Grafton Counties if it holds together. 930 PM Update...Have updated the forecast, mainly for PoPs to come in line with the latest HRRR which seems to have a decent handle on the convection out to the west. As for weather, have kept chances of thunder in over night as the short wave trough pushes eastward. There should be plenty of rumbles of thunder, especially across the north and western zones. However, chances of severe weather are quite low. One or two might be SPS material though. Other than that, have issued a coastal flood statement for the 1130 PM high tide as we may approach minor thresholds based on latest trends. Minimal impact expected. Previously... 7 PM Update...Have lowered PoPs across the board through late evening. Precipitation is having a hard time measuring or even reaching the ground at most locations. Otherwise, line of thunderstorms across far western NY will continue to progress eastward this evening. Instability wanes considerably with eastern extent so they should arrive across our far western zones in a weakened state between 10 and 11 pm. There could be some gusty winds and a some cloud to ground lightning, but fairly low prob at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Previously... Weak shortwave impulse was racing east into our area along with a band of clouds on GOES imagery. NWS Doppler Radar mosaic showed only scattered return with this impulse at moment. At the surface...a 1000 millibar low was centered along the Ontario- Quebec border with warm front southeast into eastern New York and trailing cold front through eastern Great Lakes. For tonight...band of clouds and showers move east across the area through this evening with warm front. A second stronger short wave evident in GOES water vapor over the upper Great Lakes will race east and cross the area in the predawn hours accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. As was noted yesterday...the best forcing and instability will be found across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening with convection that develops weakening rapidly as it approaches western New Hampshire after dusk. The best chance for a strong storm with gusty surface winds should be the Connecticut Valley between 8 PM and midnight. Unfortunately...rainfall will be spotty and hit or miss tonight so many locations will see little relief from the current dry spell. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cool cyclonic flow and a passing surface trough promise clouds and a few showers Thursday and Thursday night...with the most abundant clouds and showers found across northern and mountain sections. Highs will be in the lower and mid 60s north and in the lower 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level trough will cross the region Friday. This system, as many before it, will be moisture starved and will likely move over northern New England rain free. There will be a slight moderation in temperatures despite a northwest flow as sunshine will be increased. A northwest flow will continue on Saturday as high pressure builds towards the east coast. Warm air advection will allow for H8 temperatures to reach +14C by late in the day. Temperatures will soar into the 80s with above normal readings in all locations. A warm front will approach the region on Sunday. This will bring sufficient moisture and instability with an increasing jet over the region to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms by Sunday evening. PWAT values will be on the increase during this period to over two inches and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A cold front will allow for another round of showers and localized strong thunderstorms through midday Monday followed by cooler and drier air. Canadian high pressure will follow with more dry conditions. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Clouds and showers will bring areas of MVFR tonight with isold thunderstorms psb overnight as a cold front moves through. Areas of MVFR continue tomorrow mainly in mtn sections in clouds and -shra. Long Term...A cold front will cross the area Sunday night and Monday with scattered thunderstorms possible at most locations. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas will support marginal SCA for the bays and outer waters this evening...and for the outer waters for the balance of tonight. Long Term...High pressure will move into the region for the end of the week and winds and seas are expected to be below SCA criteria Friday through Sunday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front on Sunday night and Monday morning may put the outer waters near SCA before the front moves through. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Very high astronomical tides will continue the rest of this week, maxing out Thursday night. However, a lack of a storm or strong onshore flow may very well keep areas along the coast below flood stage. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
934 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Storms indeed stayed far west of Louisville. Nice cluster continues to gust southward over Dubois, Perry, and Crawford counties this hour. Light stratiform rain extends east northeast of this complex, and in essence has killed convective threat all the way to the Bluegrass. Beyond that, seeing some new storms light up in far northeast KY. The driving cold front should continue pushing south, and as these storms weaken, there may be some new development farther east, but it should be showery, as we lose daytime heating. Next up may be some patchy fog before daybreak in southern Kentucky, ahead of the front. Will send out a zone update shortly to take into account this thinking. Issued at 810 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Latest AMDAR and RAP analysis indicate the thermal ridge at 700 mb has shifted a little farther south of the river this hour. So far that is allowing for storms to continue southward into our southern Indiana counties. Latest radar trend looks like the storms may stay west of I-65 with just stratiform light rain to the east. Storms also are moving a little faster, which may allow some stronger winds to mix down. Peak wind gusts over IND`s area were 30-35 on their side of the border, but would not be surprised to see some 40-50 mph winds start mixing down. Issued at 510 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Watching a line of storms over central Indiana this hour. SPC mesoanalysis shows a little less favorable environment. AMDAR soundings show a cap at 700 mb RAP data show a warm ridge over the Ohio River. As such, think severe weather is less likely, except perhaps up in Scott/Madison counties, Also think that storms likely will not survive all the way to the river. Timing would be in the 630-7 PM time frame in our northern counties and 8-9 PM for Louisville/I-71 corridor. Have updated the gridded forecast already. && .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Widespread low cloudiness has continued across the region which has kept temperatures down as well as instability. Temperatures at the top of the hour were in the upper 70s in a few spots, but mainly temperatures were in the 80-83 degree range. Recent satellite imagery shows the low stratus finally mixing out. So we may see temperatures bump up a little bit with some late afternoon insolation. So, we expect highs on the day to average out in the lower 80s in most areas. Moving into the later afternoon and evening hours, surface cold front remains just north of the region. The front stretched from near Terre Haute to Indianapolis to Columbus line. Convection has developed along the front and will continue to drop southeastward through the late afternoon/evening hours. Latest suite of CAMs data suggests that convection will be possible across mainly southern Indiana and northern KY this evening. The best time/window for storms looks to be in the 5-10PM time frame. Some of the storms could be strong with damaging winds being the main threat. While heavy rainfall will accompany the storms, the storms will be progressive in nature, which should mitigate any widespread flash flooding concerns. Some localized areas could see some hydro issues if storms were to train over the same area. Precipitation looks to end fairly quickly with the loss of heating this evening and partly cloudy skies are expected overnight. We`ll see drier air build into the region from the north overnight, along with clearing skies by sunrise. Lows tonight look to range from the lower 60s in southern Indiana to the mid-upper 60s in the central/southern KY. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday, with much drier air continuing to filter into the area. It will feel quite refreshing given the recent muggy conditions across the area. Highs on Thursday will top out in the 80-85 degree range. .Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...Hot and Humid This Weekend... Thursday Night - Monday... A strong upper level ridge looks to build in over the region late this week through early next week. This will bring a hot, humid airmass into the region. Look for high temperatures to climb into the 90s area wide for Sat/Sun/Mon with night time lows only in the lower 70s. The heat combined with lower 70s dewpts will result in heat indices around or just above 100 degrees during peak heating each afternoon. The hottest day looks to be Sunday. Will continue to advertise heat safety in our products since this will be the first stretch of days this summer with heat indices near or just above 100. While a stray shower or storm may be possible by Sun or Mon afternoon, most should remain dry with a strong cap in place. Tuesday - Wednesday... Most long range models indicate that the ridge will break down by Tues or Wed of next week. This will allow scattered showers/storms back into the region with temperatures cooling back into the mid to upper 80s. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Line of storms forming ahead of a cold front working into the HNB/SDF corridor this hour. Still some question on whether they will survive all the way down, given a slightly more stable airmass closer to the Ohio River. Have gusty winds and MVFR conditions during the best time period for both those sites. Not sure LEX will see it, so went vicinity showers for now. Then LEX/BWG have a better chance for either low cigs or vsby concerns towards dawn Friday. Northeast winds dry us out by late morning at all sites. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...RJS Short Term...MJ Long Term....AMS Aviation...RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
701 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .UPDATE... Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms finally got going in the Rolling Plains on an old boundary left over from early morning convection. These storms have been able to become robust in finding mixed layer instabilities around 2000 J/kg with no inhibition. This activity will likely continue through the evening hours until the loss of daytime heating. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/ AVIATION... VFR conditions in place all three TAF sites. Uncertainty remains high on whether thunderstorms will develop near any of the TAF sites tonight into early Thursday morning and will have to once again leave out due to low confidence on coverage and timing. Light and variable wind tonight will gradually increase in speed out of the south tomorrow morning. Jordan PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/ DISCUSSION... This mornings convective system remains over the eastern South Plains and has reversed the earlier very strong surface divergence with weak convergence, gradually edging back into the western South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. Cumulus field developing currently along a RADAR fine line over Lamb County in the western South Plains, and latest HRRR projections at least attempt to convect, though highly questionable if the amount shown in the latest run can occur. Still, a trend seems established, and combined with a weakening cap and more favorable low level 850 millibar flow across the western South Plains and Panhandle supports at least a low chance for thunder through the overnight hours. This would also catch any storms potentially steering all the way southeast overnight off the Sangre de Christo`s or Raton Mesa. Generally weak shear and low CAPE levels suggest limited severe threat, other than rogue strong wind gusts. Meanwhile overnight, the old convective system appears will be a persistent inverted upper trough somewhere near the eastern South Plains or Rolling Plains, and there may yet be a weakness aloft holding through Thursday as well. Otherwise, we are keeping Thursday without thunder mention, per the bulk of solutions which indicate some deep layer drying and a little more inversion aloft around 450-500 millibars. Expect this to hold through Friday for that matter with western ridge extension holding across our area while the center reforms over the mid-Mississippi valley. To the south-southwest, the remnants of the Pacific Tropical System Bud will be heading slowly north along the Sonora-Chihuahua border late Friday before accelerating northward Friday night and Saturday as it is picked up by the next fairly strong upper low rotating onto the west coast. The bulk of Bud will stay to our west, but we may have enough height falls and moisture for low chance of thunder across our western border Saturday night. Behind the lifting out tropical remnants, heights aloft may rebound a bit Sunday but this is uncertain as solutions increasingly diverge. In longer ranges, solutions still favor an improvement in deep layered moisture through the middle of next week or so but are lacking well defined forcing or lift. We are holding onto low thunder mention through late Wednesday before trimming further Thursday mainly due to uncertainty. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 01
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south through the area Thursday night. High pressure over the Great Lakes Friday will move south, passing through eastern NC on Saturday, and off the coast of the southeast US early next week. A weak trof of low pressure will develop over the middle of the state this weekend and continue into next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 955 PM Wed...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for update. Isolated diurnal convection has weakened considerably during the past hour and not expecting redevelopment tonight although a few showers could form near the coast late due to the warm SST`s. Skies will become clear this evening but the gradient should be sufficient to sustain a light SW breeze precluding fog development. Lows will range from around 70 interior, to mid 70s coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 250 pm Wed...A cold front will approach from the north Thursday, and will be along the south coast by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms expected throughout the area in the very moist and unstable airmass, driven by a combination of the advancing front and the seabreeze. Severe threat looks small, but precipitable water values will be just over 2 inches and steering flow will be only around 20 knots, so locally heavy rain will be the main concern. Highs will reach around 90 inland to mid 80s coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 AM Wednesday...A cold front will push south of the area Friday. High pressure will build into the area Friday and Saturday, then slide offshore early next week bringing much warmer temps. Thursday night...A cold front will slowly push south of the area late Thursday night, with convection steadily weakening and decreasing in coverage from north to south. Lows Thursday night expected in the mid 60s well inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast. Friday and Saturday night...The front is progged to be south of the area by Friday but could see a few lingering showers across far southern area early in the morning. High pressure will be building in from the north Friday and become centered across the area Friday night and Saturday, then sliding offshore Saturday night. Expect mainly dry conditions through the period, however cannot completely rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorm well inland Saturday. Dewpoints drop into the low to mid 60s, and possible upper 50s in places, Friday and Saturday making it feel more comfortable. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s both days, though NE winds may keep the northern OBX around 80 Friday, while lows will be in the 60s. Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure will be centered offshore Sunday through Tuesday with upper ridging building in from the west. Limited rain chances through this period but isolated afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Return flow with the high offshore will bring a warm up through the period. Highs Sunday expected around 90 inland to mid 80s coast. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days with 850mb temps approaching 20C and highs are expected in the low/mid 90s inland to mid to upper 80s coast with heat indices possibly reaching around 100-105F, especially Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 600 PM Wed...Expecting prevailing VFR conditions through early Thu afternoon. Low level mixing should preclude fog formation overnight. There is sufficient low level moisture for some low cloud development but none of the guidance is indicating much of a signal for this thus any low clouds should be brief and transient as depicted in the HRRR ceiling forecasts. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop after 2 PM Thu with periodic sub VFR conditions. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 430 AM Wednesday...A front will drop into the area Thursday and push south of the area Thursday night and early Friday morning bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and periods of sub-VFR conditions. High pressure will build into the area Friday and Saturday, then slide offshore by Sunday with pred VFR conditions expected and only a very isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Thu/... As of 955 PM Wed...Southwest flow continues overnight with high pressure off the southeast coast. Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt across the waters with seas 3-4 ft. A cold front will move in from the north Thursday. Winds north of Cape Hatteras will veer to west then north in the afternoon, but remain southwest south of Hatteras. Pressure gradient will not tighten much ahead of the front and winds expected to continue averaging 10-15 knots. Seas through the short term 3-5 north of Cape Lookout and 2-4 south. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 5 AM Wednesday...A front will slowly push through the area Thursday night with high pressure building into the area Friday and Saturday, which then slides offshore by Sunday. SW winds around 10-15 kt expected ahead of the front and some high res models showing winds increasing to 15-20 kt across the southern waters for a time Thursday afternoon. Winds become N/NE around 5-10 kt after the front pushes into the area. A bit stronger surge, NE around 10-15 kt, expected Friday as high pressure builds into the area. E/SE flow around 5-10 kt expected Saturday, becoming S/SW 5-15 kt on Sunday. Seas expected around 3-5 ft Thursday morning subside to 2-4 ft Thursday afternoon with generally 2-3 ft expected Friday through Sunday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/HSA NEAR TERM...JME/CQD/HSA/TL SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...JME/SK/MS MARINE...JME/SK/CQD/HSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 408 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated that the shortwave trough that brought shra/tsra across Upper Michigan was moving quickly east through Lake Huron. Mid level and sfc ridging were moving into the region with wnw winds gusting into the 20-30 mph range. Sunshine with heating/mixing has dropped dewpoints into the upper 30s and lower 40s west to the upper 40s east resulting in RH values in the 25-30 pct range. Fortunately, widespread rain in the 0.25-0.50 range with locally higher amounts early this morning has at least temporarily limited the wildfire potential. Tonight, although diminishing winds with mostly clear skies should allow temps to drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s, boundary layer winds remaining in the 10-20 knot range will keep min readings from falling off too far. Thursday, expect light winds with the sfc ridge building over the area. 850 mb temps to around 15C will support inland readings into the lower 80s. Otherwise, prominent lake breezes will keep temps in the 60s along the Great Lakes. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 411 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018 Although it`ll be a quiet start to the long-term period, an active pattern seems to be a safe bet for this weekend. There are still some model differences in the days 3 plus time frame, but the overall predictability of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the Upper Peninsula lines up well amongst the long-range models. Upper Michigan will be on the periphery of a mid- to upper-level ridge that will be parked in the general vicinity of the Mid- Mississippi into Tennessee valleys. As a result, the local forecast area will be in its ring of fire with warm, moist air readily advecting in. The first shortwave to traverse through arrives on Friday, with additional perturbations riding along the ridge`s periphery through the weekend. By early next week, while there are some larger discrepancies in the model solutions, the general consensus is that a closed low ejecting out of the Rockies will cross the Northern Plains, eventually tracking through the Great Lakes region. This appears to be the system that will break Upper Michigan free from the discussed pattern. Temperatures continue to trend on the warm side for this weekend, with upper 80s peaking on Saturday and Sunday. Should the aforementioned low come to fruition, cooler air should be allowed to return areawide by early next week. Look for lows in the 50s and 60s throughout the long-term period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 752 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018 Gusty w to nw winds will diminish over the next hr or two as daytime heating is lost. Light winds under 10kt will then prevail thru the remainder of the fcst period. Under a dry air mass, VFR conditions will be the rule at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru Thu. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 408 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018 West northwest winds to 30 knots will diminish this evening. Then winds should remain below 20kts through the rest of the forecast period. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005- 006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...lg AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...A few severe thunderstorms possible southeast plains through this evening...near critical fire weather conditions possible mountains/valleys on Thursday... Dew points have stayed up in the 50s across the majority of the southeast plains through 18z and seems to be verifying more closely to the NamNest 12z run vs the drier HRRR runs. Main challenge for this afternoon will be how quickly the dry line will mix eastward as afternoon convection gets going and moves eastward off the mountains. Dew point at Colorado City dropped from the upper 40s into the upper 30s as of 20z and convection appears to be pretty high based. Other areas around the Pikes Peak region however have seen dew points hang in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Suspect that CAPE will continue to drop off as dew points erode away from the mountains but a severe storm or two will still be possible through the late afternoon and evening as storms encounter richer low level moisture and sufficient CAPE of up to 1500+ j/kg. Deep layer shears are ranging around 30-35 kts sufficient for some storm organization. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary storm threats. Farther west...drier dew points will limit thunderstorm coverage and strength but could see some erratic gusty winds and lightning from these. For Thursday...weak shortwave back across AZ will be moving through western CO during the morning. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated showers during the morning along the Continental Divide as a result. As it moves through the remainder of the area on Thursday...lee trof deepens and kicks eastward in the afternoon. This will bring drier and hotter conditions to much of the area. Timing of the forcing moving through may limit thunderstorm coverage out west, so while there is some risk for dry thunderstorms, think that the coverage will remain isolated. Of greater concern is the potential for critical fire weather conditions to develop along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains. Only area hitting critical fire weather conditions appears to be a small area of Chaffee county (roughly Buena Vista to Salida) and across the lower elevations of Fremont county. Gusty winds may also spread across limited portions of southern El Paso and northern Pueblo county...but the duration and coverage looks too limited at this point to warrant a Red Flag Warning. Later shifts will need to monitor this potential as new model runs arrive. -KT .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Thursday night-Friday night...Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly through the end of the work week, as Eastern Pacific energy digs across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. Latest models continue to indicate available moisture increasing, especially the western half of the area, supporting better chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd. Still can`t rule an isolated dry thunderstorm, however should see more wetting rains across the higher terrain, which will limit fire weather concerns. Further east, warming temperatures aloft and low level moisture mixing out should limit convection across the Plains. Again, can`t rule out an isolated high based thunderstorm in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures to stay above seasonal levels, with highs in the 90s to around the century mark across the Southeast Plains, and 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Saturday-Sunday...Models continue to support a cooler and wetter pattern developing across the region through the weekend, as a broad upper trough carves out across the Great Basin. This brings deep southerly flow aloft across the region and opens the door to increasing Pacific moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Bud, with NHC tracks into central New Mexico by 12Z Sunday. Saturday still looks to be the wettest day, especially over western portions of the area, as short wave energy ejects out across the Rockies. Models indicating pwats increasing to between 1 and 1.5 inches across the area on Saturday, which is over the 90th percentile for mid June based on GJT soundings, leading to potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding over recent burn scars. The southerly flow aloft will keep storms moving, however, could see storms training across the higher terrain, and will need to continue to monitor later model runs. Flow aloft goes more west to southwest on Sunday, which looks to push the bulk of the Pacific moisture and the remnants of Bud south and east of the area. However, a cold front looks to push south across the northern high plains and into northeastern Colorado. Models keep this boundary north of Palmer Dvd through the day, though could bring increasing low level moisture and chances of storms to northern portions of the area Sunday night. Monday-Wednesday...Models differ on upper features with the GFS developing drier westerly flow aloft, where as the EC keeps a broad upper trough across the West Coast and Great Basin with moist south to southwest flow aloft. GFS ensembles are similar to the EC with broad southwest flow aloft, which gives credence to a cooler and wetter EC solution through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the mountains and drift off into the adjacent lower elevations. KCOS and KPUB stand the best chance of seeing TSRA at the terminals between 20-00z, with COS being on the earlier side of this window and KPUB on the latter side. KALS could also see VCTS which could result in erratic gusty outflow winds. Winds will increase from the southwest on Thursday with gusts to around 20-25 kts in the afternoon at all three terminals. Thunderstorm chances will be lower as temperatures warm and the atmosphere dries out again. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
721 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .UPDATE... To add some pops/wx for 00-03Z && .SHORT TERM... KSHV 88D is showing an outflow boundary lit up with thunderstorm actiivity from near Magnolia to El Dorado to Crossett with still other thunderstorms down along I-20 from Ruston to Monroe. Gusty winds to 30 mph will be common with brief heavy rainfall. A few isolated thunderstorms are on their last leg in deep east TX. The HRRR is still going with activity down into cen LA through 05Z so we will watch this activity for a couple or few hours. Otherwise warm and muggy with lower 90s now seeing a slow fall through the 80s this evening, except of course where outflowed or better yet rained on. /24/ && .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, watching a push of TS activity out of S AR into N LA affecting KELD/KMLU over the next few hours with gusty wind to 30KT with lower vsby near downpours. Otherwise, warm and muggy with S/SW wind. CLimb winds are SW-NW less than 20KT and E above 20kft. 10-20KT. Outlook for Thursday is much the same with VCTS and amendments for pop up convection through the weekend. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/ Scattered convection has developed in Central Arkansas along a remnant outflow boundary. Farther south, more isolated showers and storms associated with the sea breeze has developed across portions of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. The Arkansas convection, while quite robust, is making very slow progress southward. All of this activity is mainly diurnally driven and should gradually dissipate during the evening hours, but a few locations in Southern Arkansas could be affected before the storms wane. A broad upper ridge will continue to move northward into the Southern Plains. The expansion of the ridge across Southeast Oklahoma should keep the best chances for diurnal convection mainly along and south of the Interstate 30 corridor, and especially southeast of a line from Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe LA. Conditions will generally be similar to today, so daytime high temperatures should also be similar on Thursday. CN LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ Stubborn UA ridge centered across the Desert Southwest today will commence to shift to the north of the Four-State Region by the end of this week, resulting in southeast flow aloft. Ensuing srly sfc flow will maintain a fetch of rich Gulf moisture across the FA and when coupled with daytime destabilization /and the center of the UA ridge not directly overhead/ may result in diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. As typical of this time of year, can not rule out a few of the storms reaching strong levels with brief gusty winds and occasional cloud to ground lightning being the primary threats, but overall the severe weather threat will be low given lack of UL support. Early next week may prove to become interesting as the National Hurricane Center has focused on an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the western Caribbean. Computer models hint at this system drifting northwestward to across the southeast TX coast Sunday night and to across the FA Monday morning/afternoon, driven by a broad UA ridge that will then become centered across the southeast CONUS. Subsequently, bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall could impact mainly the western-half of the CWA early next week. Of course the exact track of the disturbance could change so be sure to stay up-to-date with the latest weather information. Thereafter, the center of UA ridge will retrograde back southwestward but this time, become centered across the central and southern portions of the CWA. Could therefore see diurnally driven convection more so across southeast OK and portions southwest AR. Daytime temps will remain warm in the lower to middle 90s through early weekend but will drop down into the middle to upper 80s to lower 90s early next week, with the onset of the Gulf disturbance and thus associated increased cloud cover and rainfall. /29/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 94 75 95 / 20 20 10 20 MLU 74 92 74 93 / 30 30 20 30 DEQ 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 75 94 75 93 / 20 20 10 20 ELD 72 94 74 93 / 30 20 10 20 TYR 75 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 20 GGG 75 94 74 94 / 10 20 10 20 LFK 74 94 74 94 / 20 30 10 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/09/29
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
636 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Thursday. Carrying VCSH groups at our southern terminals this evening prior to 01Z, given radar trends with isolated to widely scattered coverage of showers across the southeastern part of our area. The SREF and the 18Z models are less favorable for low cloud development into the southeastern part of our area early Thursday morning. Carrying just a scattered low cloud layer with no ceilings at KJCT and KSOA. South-southeast winds will continue tonight through Thursday. Winds could become somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT by afternoon, but anticipate that most if not all gusts will be less than 20 knots. 19 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Thursday) Scattered cumulus clouds are indicated on afternoon visible satellite imagery, while surface observations show temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Winds are generally from the southerly direction at 5 to 10 mph. Expect highs today to reach into the mid to upper 90s. SPC Mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/KG of SB CAPE across the forecast area, and the HRRR and TTU WRF show the potential for a few brief isolated storms/showers across the region this afternoon. Tonight through Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge persists over the region, with overnight lows in the low 70s and highs tomorrow once again in the mid to upper 90s. Skies should be mostly clear, with only a slight chance of some low clouds moving into the Northwest Hill Country late tonight/early Thursday morning. SJH LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Wednesday) Upper level high pressure will move east into southeast Texas this weekend. This will open up the moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and weaken the persistent cap over the region. The GFS and to certain extent the EC model, are not as optimistic with rainfall as yesterday, but still indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the Monday to Wednesday time range. Isolated showers and thunderstorm are possible beginning in Saturday in southeastern zones with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the region Sunday. Highs in the mid 90s are expected into Saturday, falling in the upper 80s to lower 90s next week, with increased clouds and shower and thunderstorm activity. 04 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 96 73 96 / 5 0 0 5 San Angelo 71 96 72 96 / 5 5 5 5 Junction 70 94 71 94 / 5 5 5 5 Brownwood 71 94 72 95 / 5 5 5 5 Sweetwater 72 95 73 95 / 5 0 0 5 Ozona 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 0 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018 .UPDATE... Light flow and deep moisture allowed scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across much of the area this afternoon, with the majority of the storms now clustered across the interior. However, HRRR and other high resolution models have been indicating that a few storms could still work back towards the west coast of Florida this evening along outflow boundaries before midnight. Otherwise, convection should gradually subside after sunset, with generally rain free conditions expected to set in by midnight and hold through the morning hours on Thursday. A few adjustments were made to the rain chances and sky cover forecasts for the next few hours to keep up with radar and satellite trends. Otherwise, no significant updates needed for the evening update. && .AVIATION... Scattered thunderstorms will gradually dissipate through the next few hours, but will continue to be possible in the vicinity of area terminals through around 03-04z. As thunderstorms move over individual terminals, periods of MVFR or IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible, potentially lasting up to an hour or more due to slow storm motion. VFR conditions are expected to hold after 04z, until afternoon storms begin to develop again around 17z on Thursday. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week, with generally light winds and seas expected to continue. Daily thunderstorms will develop, mainly over the land areas, but a few thunderstorms could form over the Gulf waters as well, and afternoon storms will have the possibility of shifting into the coastal waters creating locally hazardous boating conditions. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 77 90 78 88 / 50 30 20 30 FMY 74 91 75 90 / 30 30 10 30 GIF 73 92 74 91 / 50 70 20 40 SRQ 75 89 77 87 / 40 20 20 20 BKV 71 90 74 90 / 20 40 20 30 SPG 77 89 79 89 / 40 20 20 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for Coastal Sarasota. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley/Flannery DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin