Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/14/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
At 3 PM, high pressure was providing mostly sunny to sunny skies
across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures ranged
from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dew points were very comfortable
ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Further to the west a
thunderstorm complex was located across southern South Dakota.
The HRRR seems to have the best handle on this complex. It rapidly
moves it east across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa late
this afternoon and into northeast Iowa and possibly southeast
Minnesota this evening. With this system moving into a much drier
air mass, the HRRR gradually dissipates as it moves east. This
makes sense, so only went with rain chances in the 20 to 40
percent range for this evening.
As the low level jet strengthens tonight, another thunderstorm
complex will develop over southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa
somewhere between midnight and 3 AM. As this jet veers late
tonight, this complex will move east across southern Minnesota
and northern Iowa. It will then shift southeast across eastern
Iowa. With many of the CAM models showing that this complex will
most likely remain southwest and south of the area, kept rain
chances in the 20 to 40 percent range.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
From Thursday night into Friday, a warm front will move northward
through the region. This front will be the focus for additional
showers and storms. However, the location of this activity is
uncertain. The GFS, NAM, and Canadian suggest that they will
affect the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is
the progressive with this ridge and it keeps much of the area dry.
The instability along and south of this front will climb into the
2500 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, there may be an outflow
boundary/boundaries from any convection from the previous night
which may help in the development of additional storms in the
afternoon. With the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear weak, any severe weather
threat would be likely pulse in nature.
From Friday night into Saturday night, the models continue to
struggle on the northern periphery of the ridge. This results in
much uncertainty on where additional showers and storms may
develop. At this time, the highest probabilities would be north of
Interstate 90. With the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear weak, any severe weather
threat would be likely pulse in nature.
Temperatures across the region will range from the lower 80s to
lower 90s on Friday and in the lower and mid 90s for the weekend.
There are even some hints in the ECMWF that these temperatures may
be a bit too conservative. With dew points climbing to around 70,
heat indices will likely range from 95 to 105. This will likely
result in the potential for the possibility of some Heat
Advisories being issued.
From Sunday afternoon into Monday, a cold front will move slowly
southeast through the area. This will result in showers and
storms, and a return to more seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Mid level clouds continue to increase from the west, with a few
remaining showers that could just clip RST the next few hours.
Those clouds will gradually drift east through the day on
Thursday, while additional showers and storms develop south of
LSE and RST late tonight and into the morning. Some of those could
get close to RST or LSE by midday or early afternoon before
waning, though confidence is quite low about the northward extend
of any precipitation. As such, VFR conditions should prevail for
both locations the next 24 hours.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Lawrence
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
752 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
HRRR model did a good job of showing the more active part of the
Mississippi MCS staying west of Alabama and convection struggling
to get going over central Alabama. Better instability has now
shifted south of I-20 where surface based CAPE values are now
running 2500-3000 J/kg. Will keep highest rain chances over the
southwest counties for the remainder of the afternoon and early
evening due to proximity of MCS. HRRR keeps some shower activity
around throughout the night and will keep low pops after midnight.
58/rose
.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.
Mid-level latent heat release associated with today`s convection
will help cause some amplification to the initially weak shortwave
over the area, resulting in the formation of an MCV. Lift
associated with this feature as well as remaining outflow
boundaries and a low-level pre-frontal/lee trough stretching down
the East Coast from low pressure near Maine will result in enhanced
shower/storm chances south of this feature on Thursday. Meanwhile
northerly flow/subsidence and due a mid-level ridge building in
from the Plains will result in some drier air moving aloft and
reduced rain chances north of the feature. Models vary in the
exact placement of this features, but generally suggest enhanced
rain chances near the I-85 corridor Thursday and somewhat reduced
coverage for areas along and north of I-20. However, still expect
at least widely scattered development north of I-20 as well given
moist low-levels, strong instability, and a stalled out front
over TN. High SBCAPE and DCAPE values across the northern counties
would suggest a conditional threat for microbursts with any
isolated strong updrafts that form, however warm air/subsidence
aloft associated with the ridge and dry air entrainment will be
limiting factors probably preventing an isolated severe threat.
The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian have all trended towards pushing the
MCV away from the area into south Georgia/north Florida by Friday
allowing the mid-level ridge to continue to build in, while the
NAM is an outlier in keeping the MCV over Central Alabama. Will
carry the highest PoPs in the southeast counties closest to the
MCV and surface trough. Some further reductions in PoPs across the
north may be necessary if model agreement on the MCV position
improves. The ECMWF and GFS are trending stronger with the mid-
level ridge building over the eastern CONUS and centered near the
Ohio Valley during the extended period. This results in drier air
aloft over the forecast area as the tropical moisture plume in
the western Gulf stays well west of the area. Began to trend PoPs
downward and temperatures upward. These may need to be trended
further if model trends continue; but models have not been
consistent with this yet. Shortwaves rotating around the ridge
from the east would still result in some contribution to diurnal
activity, however.
32/Davis
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
Afternoon convection is winding down, with only a few scattered
showers/storms persisting across the state. Convection should
continue to decrease through the evening hours. Some low stratus
and BR are possible once again tonight late especially where it
has stormed. TSRA are possible to develop once again on Thursday
afternoon as we remain in a hot and wet pattern.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each day through
the week. Cannot rule out at least isolated coverage during the
overnight hours. Light fog and/or low clouds are possible each
morning, and most likely will be near locations that receive
rainfall the previous day/evening. RH values remain well above
critical values. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 68 89 68 92 69 / 30 30 20 20 20
Anniston 68 88 69 91 69 / 40 40 20 30 20
Birmingham 69 89 71 92 72 / 40 40 20 30 20
Tuscaloosa 70 92 72 94 72 / 40 40 20 30 20
Calera 68 89 70 91 70 / 40 40 30 30 20
Auburn 69 86 71 89 71 / 40 60 30 50 20
Montgomery 69 89 71 91 72 / 50 60 30 50 20
Troy 70 88 71 90 71 / 50 60 30 50 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
58/32/08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
931 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Updated grids/zones to remove mention of precipitation along Rio
Grande as convection has dissipated with loss of heating. Radar
indicating isolated showers already forming in marine zones. Thus
20% POPs looks good there. Expect coverage of precipitation to
increase late tonight to more scattered as moisture continues to
increase, per GOES Total Precipitable Water imagery. Surface
pressure gradient is stronger than expected this evening, thus
updated winds to increase values to reflect current conditions.
Expect winds to gradually diminish overnight. No other changes.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 707 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/
DISCUSSION...
See 00z TAF discussion below.
AVIATION...
Will maintain mention of -tsra along Rio Grande until 02z before
ending. Otherwise expect MVFR ceilings to develop along the coast
by mid evening (02-04z) spreading inland during the overnight
hours. Light showers will develop along the coast between
(09-11z) progressing inland with the sea breeze during the
afternoon. Due to isolated nature of these showers only included
VCTS in TAFs. MVFR ceilings will become VFR after 14z Thursday.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Currently, isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing and moving across the Brush Country this afternoon.
Most showers are weak and will quickly fall apart due to limited
instability and source of lift. Although the cu fields are
clearing along the Coastal Bend as a marine layer progresses
inland this afternoon, not much in the way of convection has been
initiated as of yet along the sea breeze. With the latest HRRR run
having shower and thunderstorm activity trending downward
compared to this morning`s runs, a few slightly stronger showers
and thunderstorms could still develop within the next few hours
along the encroaching boundary. If showers do develop a few could
linger across the Brush Country this evening, but confidence is
decreasing.
Otherwise, expect the upper level trough to continue to sit and
wobble over the Texas Gulf Coast through the short term. The mid
and low level southeasterly flow will continue to advect moisture
into South Texas increasing PWATs to around 1.7 to near 2 inches
resulting in increasing cloud cover overnight and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorm tomorrow morning through the
afternoon.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Mid-level weakness continues across the western gulf and western
Texas as mid-level ridge begins to build into the Ozarks and lower
Mississippi Valley. Sufficient moisture available along with weak
capping will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through
the end of the weekend. Activity should be typical morning showers
moving inland with the sea breeze. Did cut back POPs for Saturday as
deep moisture remains well south of the area.
Focus shifts to the tropical wave NHC is currently monitoring in the
western Caribbean Sea. NHC currently maintains a 20% of tropical
development for the next 5 days as this wave slowly moves into the
southern Gulf. It is with this disturbance that deeper moisture is
expected to move farther into the western Gulf increasing rain
chances late in the weekend into early next week for South Texas.
PWATs are expected to increase to near 2.0-2.3 inches during this
period which nears the 99th percentile and +2SD of normal for the
month of June. This amount of moisture could easily lead to
periods of moderate and even locally heavy rainfall from any
showers or storms that move into South Texas, with general amounts
of 2 to 4 inches and localized higher amounts possible. However,
confidence remains low on which areas will see these higher
amounts should any changes occur with the development of the wave.
Rain chances are expected to slowly diminish mid to late week
next week.
In addition, hazardous conditions may develop across the waters with
an increase in seas as the tropical wave moves into the Gulf.
Elevated rip current risks will be possible as increased swells and
swell periods may develop from the disturbance.
As for temperatures, warm and humid conditions continue through
Saturday, with temperatures gradually cooling through early next
week due to the expected increase in moisture and cloud coverage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 75 92 77 92 77 / 20 30 20 40 20
Victoria 74 96 75 94 75 / 20 30 20 40 20
Laredo 76 99 77 99 76 / 10 20 10 20 10
Alice 74 97 74 96 75 / 20 30 20 40 20
Rockport 80 91 80 91 80 / 20 30 20 40 30
Cotulla 74 98 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 20 10
Kingsville 75 96 77 95 76 / 20 30 20 40 20
Navy Corpus 80 91 80 90 80 / 20 30 20 40 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
JM/75...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
649 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Storm chances tonight into Thursday along with the heatwave Friday
into the weekend were the main focus of the forecast. Leaned
closer the latest couple of runs of the HRRR, but most of the
hires models are in good agreement with timing and location of
storms/showers this evening into Thursday. Friday through Monday,
leaned slightly closer to the GFS/NAM as thinking the ECMWF is too
warm with the temps and too dry with the dew points.
Tonight into Thursday...weak convection over South Dakota looks to
trickle into northern Iowa this evening. The latest
HRRR/ARW/NMM/RAP continue this thundershower activity through
around 02-04z tonight along the Highway 20 corridor before
dissipating. Confident to insert low pops through the evening
across portions of northern Iowa to coincide with the HRRR as it
has performed fairly well recently. However, low confidence with
anything measurable as there remains a deep dry layer for
precipitation to contend with before reaching the ground. Thus,
QPF remains NIL through 06z.
Better forcing moves into the state past 06z tonight with a decent
slug of 925-700mb theta-E advection. Little concern with the
severe potential overnight into Thursday morning due to the lack
of instability and weak shear. Some pockets of brief moderate to
heavy rain are possible b/t 06-15z Thursday as precipitable water
values range around 1.5 inches and warm layer cloud depths near
13kft. The slight delay in the system to depart on Thursday will
keep max temperatures a bit cooler than previously anticipated as
cloud cover hangs around into the afternoon.
Friday through Monday...Hot and humid conditions along with winds
remain on track during this period. The most notable changes were
to the winds/gusts Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon as
deep mixing develops both days providing some gusts to 30 mph.
Increased winds roughly 3-5 knots, especially over the western
half of the CWA where the mixing looks to be slightly deeper. The
other issue is with the stronger winds, the dew points are likely
to mix and thus be slightly drier than previous forecast. Not a
significant change to the ongoing dew point forecast over the
central to eastern sections of the CWA, but lowered dew points
across the west slightly with the stronger winds anticipated. With
the large upper level ridge in place through weekend over the
state, a few weak shortwaves may ride the ridge and bring cloud
cover and storm chances to far northern Iowa into southern
Minnesota. One more notable shortwave looks to bring storms b/t
06-12z Saturday but will quickly move east and allow the breezy
and hot conditions to return. The WAA persists Friday night and
again Saturday night into Sunday and likely to keep minimum
temperatures from dropping off too drastically. Kept with the mid-
70s for much of the forecast area through the weekend and not
allowing any relief to the daytime heat. Another concern to the
heatwave is Monday where the ECMWF and GFS are coming into better
agreement with the slower progression of the trough. Confidence is
increasing for another hot and humid day on Monday with highs
remaining in the lower to middle 90s over the central to southern
parts of the forecast area. Certainly a headline is likely to be
needed over the weekend.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Finally some relief to the heat with a
cold front to move through the region late Monday night into
Tuesday morning. The ECMWF stalls the front across southern Iowa
into the middle of the week, while the GFS brings in a surface
high pressure system during the same time frame.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
VFR conditions are in place across the forecast area and are
expected to remain that way through the valid period. The only
concern would be the inclusion of thunder with weak VFR
convection into the early morning hours. Until confidence
increases have kept either -SHRA VCTS to VCSH wording north
/KFOD,KMCW,KALO/ with the potential too low farther south at the
moment.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Podrazik
AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
747 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Have removed thunderstorm chances through midnight across our
forecast area. There are currently developing thunderstorms over
eastern Colorado, but even if those hold together, which is
questionable, they should not reach our western zones until after
midnight. Will call for a slight chance of thunderstorms across
our southwestern zones during the pre-dawn hours Thursday, should
any of those Colorado storms hold together. The nose of the low
level jet, which is another favorable area for overnight
thunderstorms will be oriented northeast of our forecast area and
thus will keep most of our forecast area dry tonight between these
two areas of thunderstorms (low level jet storms to the northeast
and existing evening high plains thunderstorms to our southwest.)
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Aloft: The Westerlies were zonal along the US-Can border per RAP
analyses...aircraft data and 12Z RAOBs. A subtropical high was
over NM. The Westerlies will begin to amplify thru tomorrow with
modestly rising heights over the Nrn Plns as trofs deepen over the
NW and NE USA. The developing ridge will drift just E of the rgn
tomorrow... shifting the winds to SW.
Surface: High pres has drifted out of Neb into IA. This high will
cont E into the OH Vly thru tomorrow. A cool front has moved
onshore in the Pac NW. This front will cont E with cyclogenesis
occurring over SA/MT tonight. This will force the front that moved
thru Mon to move back across the CWA as a warm front tonight. The
CWA will then be in the warm sector tomorrow.
We`ve been monitoring sct tstms thru the day over N-cntrl KS up
into the HJH area. A svr tstm occurred over Rooks county. All
that`s left is a remnant meso convective vortex (MCV) with some
dissipating -RA. As of this writing the tstms are now E of HJH.
Clds have been diminishing N and W of the dissipating tstm
activity. Initiation of new tstms is highly uncertain the rest of
the afternoon due to an overall lack of discernible forcing. In
addition...HRRR soundings show considerable CIN. This makes
initiation very doubtful.
However...the low-lvl jet will intensify tonight and
strengthening WAA/convergence could initiate sct tstms. 1-6 km
shear will be 30-40 kt. The LLJ will advect a plume of rich 850 mb
dwpts of 14-16C N into the CWA...resulting in a significant
increase of MUCAPE to 3000 J/kg. A few tstms that develop out to
the W could meander in toward midnight as well...but unsure of
it`s intensity.
Tonight: Variable sky between m/clear and p-m/cldy. The
occurrence and coverage of tstms is highly uncertain. If they do
occur...our POPs will be way to low (currently at 20% just because
of a lack of model agreement due to weak forcing).
Warm and muggy as the plume of dwpts in the mid-upr 60s advect
back in.
Thu: Sunny and hot! 850 mb temps will increase from 20-22C today
to 28-30C tomorrow with 1000-500 mb thickness increasing from
579-582 to 588. Highs were increased above the 4 AM fcst and we
are now fcstg widespread 99-102F...hottest from Hwy 136 down into
N-cntrl KS.
Winds will help as S winds gust 27-33 kt.
This will be the 1st of 4 days of excessive heat. Be smart.
Use heat-related precautions if you work or exercise outside or
work in hot confined spaced with low ventilation. Stay in the AC
as much as possible.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Aloft: Little has changed from prvs expectations. Amplification
will cont with a blocking pattern developing. The subtropical high
(referenced abv) will become parked over the Ern USA with a trof
and cut-off low developing in the W. This will lock-in SW flow
over the Cntrl Plns.
Surface: The CWA will remain in the warm sector thru Sun. The
cool front currently moving thru the Pac NW will cont E and move
into Neb Fri. However...it is still fcst to become quasi-
stationary from roughly IML-LBF-ONL as it become parallel to the
flow aloft. The front is still fcst to slowly sag thru the CWA Sun
night into Mon... and if organized tstms form on its cool
side...outflow could effectively force the front further S into KS
Tue.
Temps: Hot thru Sun. The fcst init gradually decreases high temps
each day...but am not buying it. There just isn`t any reason to
for it. Temps were nudge back up a bit Fri-Sat...but our fcst is
probably not hot enough for Sun. We`re advertising 91-96F...but it
will probably be more like 95-102F. Turning cooler early next
week...but Mon could still be in the low-mid 90s depending on the
position of the front. The true cool-down will arrive Tue- Wed...
but that will just be back to normal (i.e. where temps should be
for mid Jun).
Precip: Dry thru Sat for sure...and probably Sun. Sct tstms will
be possible Sun night-Wed. While we have a mention as early as Sun
afternoon W of Hwy 183 that may be optimistic.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
A strong low level jet is expected to develop this evening into
tonight. The combination of the strong low level jet with the
decreasing surface winds after midnight will result in strong low
level shear mainly after midnight/1 am lasting through about 8 or
9 am. Gusty south winds are expected again on Thursday. VFR
ceilings and visibility are expected to continue.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1042 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low
pressure exiting the region over northeast Ontario, while high
pressure is moving east across Minnesota and Iowa. Despite ample
dry air, diurnal cu popped over northern WI by late morning at the
same time as wind gusts peak around 20-25 kts. With only cirrus
upstream, forecast concerns mainly revolve around cloud trends and
temps through Thursday.
Surface ridge axis will be slowly shift across western and central
WI tonight and eastern WI on Thursday. With the approaching ridge
axis and nocturnal cooling setting in, the gusty winds should
subside relatively quickly this evening. Otherwise, the jet stream
should bring in some cirrus to northern WI at times tonight. Dont
think it will impact temps much, and went with lows ranging from
the upper 40s over the northwoods to the upper 50s over the Fox
Valley.
Winds will shift to the south on Thursday, and will start to see
increasing moisture aloft from the southwest. This could lead to
some mid-level clouds pushing into central WI during the morning.
The airmass remains too stable for much of a threat of precip,
however. High temps will be a degree or two warmer than today`s
readings.
.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
The main concerns for this period include the various chances for
showers and storms into early next week and their timing for
potential severe storms/flooding, and the above normal
temperatures associated with higher dew points on Saturday and
Sunday.
Beginning Thursday night, the synoptic pattern will set up with a
building ridge over Wisconsin. Model guidance also shows a weak
ripple in the ridge associated with an MCS which will cause the
potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop across eastern
Minnesota and northern WI. There is also a mid-level jet that will
cause a moisture push into southern Wisconsin. The problem
between these two features is which one would impact the area
first. There are signs of significant instability late Thursday
night through Friday night, such as higher mid-level lapse rates
and higher CAPE values, which could lead to scattered or isolated
severe storms. However, depending on when and where the surface
boundary resides, the showers and storms could impact either
northern Wisconsin first or central Wisconsin first on Friday
morning and then again in the late afternoon and overnight hours.
Model guidance is having issues agreeing with these small scale
features as it is too far out in the forecast.
Friday afternoon through the rest of the weekend, high pressure
will set up over the Middle Mississippi Valley leaving the Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes regions in the ring of
fire, allowing showers and storms to develop over these northern
Midwest regions. The exact timing for precipitation is uncertain
as models are not in agreement other than the placement over
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Precipitable water values throughout
the weekend and into early next week remain in the 1.5 to 2.0
inch range raising concern for flooding over the area.
Moving into Sunday night, remnants of Hurricane Bud will begin
adding tropical moisture to the already moist air over the Upper
Mississippi Valley, which will add to the flooding concern for
Monday. The GFS and Canadian suggest a shortwave development
Monday or Tuesday, pushing more moisture over the region for
showers and thunderstorms to develop.
With the ridge building on Saturday and Sunday over Wisconsin
associated with the moist airmass, temperatures will reach above
normal with higher relative humidity values. Combining these two
readings, heat index values could reach into the upper 90s or
even triple digits across the forecast area, which may lead to
possible heat headlines.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
VFR conditions are expected for rest of tonight, Thursday and into
Thursday evening as a weak area of high pressure to reside over
the Great Lakes. Expect to see some mid and high clouds pass
through over the next 24 hours from convection firing across the
Plains/Upper Midwest. Any precipitation is forecast to hold off
until later Thursday night into Friday when an upper-level
disturbance interacts with WAA and an increasing low-level jet.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Hykin
AVIATION.......AK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1159 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight with a few showers
and thunderstorms. Cooler and slightly drier weather is
expected Thursday. A low pressure trough will cross the area
late Thursday and Thursday evening with clouds and the chance
of showers. A warming trend will begin Friday and continue on
Saturday as high pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic region. A
warm front may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday with a cold front crossing the region Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1258 PM Update...Minor changes to the forecast. Convection still
moving into the region but decreasing in intensity as it does
so.
1020 PM Mesoscale Update...Strongest cell on radar at the
moment is in Rutland County, VT. It has shown a sustained core
and is showing signs of bowing. Will continue to watch this cell
as it progresses eastward, as there is a low probability that a
warning will need to be issued for northern Sullivan and/or
southern Grafton Counties if it holds together.
930 PM Update...Have updated the forecast, mainly for PoPs to
come in line with the latest HRRR which seems to have a decent
handle on the convection out to the west. As for weather, have
kept chances of thunder in over night as the short wave trough
pushes eastward. There should be plenty of rumbles of thunder,
especially across the north and western zones. However, chances
of severe weather are quite low. One or two might be SPS
material though. Other than that, have issued a coastal flood
statement for the 1130 PM high tide as we may approach minor
thresholds based on latest trends. Minimal impact expected.
Previously...
7 PM Update...Have lowered PoPs across the board through late
evening. Precipitation is having a hard time measuring or even
reaching the ground at most locations. Otherwise, line of
thunderstorms across far western NY will continue to progress
eastward this evening. Instability wanes considerably with
eastern extent so they should arrive across our far western
zones in a weakened state between 10 and 11 pm. There could be
some gusty winds and a some cloud to ground lightning, but
fairly low prob at this time. Will continue to monitor trends.
Previously...
Weak shortwave impulse was racing east into our area along with a
band of clouds on GOES imagery. NWS Doppler Radar mosaic showed
only scattered return with this impulse at moment. At the
surface...a 1000 millibar low was centered along the Ontario-
Quebec border with warm front southeast into eastern New York and
trailing cold front through eastern Great Lakes. For
tonight...band of clouds and showers move east across the area
through this evening with warm front. A second stronger
short wave evident in GOES water vapor over the upper Great
Lakes will race east and cross the area in the predawn hours
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. As was noted
yesterday...the best forcing and instability will be found
across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening with
convection that develops weakening rapidly as it approaches
western New Hampshire after dusk. The best chance for a strong
storm with gusty surface winds should be the Connecticut Valley
between 8 PM and midnight. Unfortunately...rainfall will be
spotty and hit or miss tonight so many locations will see little
relief from the current dry spell.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cool cyclonic flow and a passing surface trough promise clouds
and a few showers Thursday and Thursday night...with the most
abundant clouds and showers found across northern and mountain
sections. Highs will be in the lower and mid 60s north and in the
lower 70s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will cross the region Friday. This system,
as many before it, will be moisture starved and will likely move
over northern New England rain free. There will be a slight
moderation in temperatures despite a northwest flow as sunshine
will be increased.
A northwest flow will continue on Saturday as high pressure
builds towards the east coast. Warm air advection will allow for
H8 temperatures to reach +14C by late in the day. Temperatures
will soar into the 80s with above normal readings in all
locations.
A warm front will approach the region on Sunday. This will bring
sufficient moisture and instability with an increasing jet over
the region to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms by
Sunday evening. PWAT values will be on the increase during this
period to over two inches and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible.
A cold front will allow for another round of showers and
localized strong thunderstorms through midday Monday followed by
cooler and drier air. Canadian high pressure will follow with
more dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Clouds and showers will bring areas of MVFR
tonight with isold thunderstorms psb overnight as a cold front
moves through. Areas of MVFR continue tomorrow mainly in mtn
sections in clouds and -shra.
Long Term...A cold front will cross the area Sunday night and
Monday with scattered thunderstorms possible at most locations.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will support marginal SCA for the
bays and outer waters this evening...and for the outer waters
for the balance of tonight.
Long Term...High pressure will move into the region for the end
of the week and winds and seas are expected to be below SCA
criteria Friday through Sunday. Increasing southerly flow ahead
of a cold front on Sunday night and Monday morning may put the
outer waters near SCA before the front moves through.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Very high astronomical tides will continue the rest of this
week, maxing out Thursday night. However, a lack of a storm or
strong onshore flow may very well keep areas along the coast
below flood stage.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Hanes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
934 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Storms indeed stayed far west of Louisville. Nice cluster continues
to gust southward over Dubois, Perry, and Crawford counties this
hour. Light stratiform rain extends east northeast of this complex,
and in essence has killed convective threat all the way to the
Bluegrass. Beyond that, seeing some new storms light up in far
northeast KY. The driving cold front should continue pushing south,
and as these storms weaken, there may be some new development
farther east, but it should be showery, as we lose daytime heating.
Next up may be some patchy fog before daybreak in southern Kentucky,
ahead of the front. Will send out a zone update shortly to take into
account this thinking.
Issued at 810 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Latest AMDAR and RAP analysis indicate the thermal ridge at 700 mb
has shifted a little farther south of the river this hour. So far
that is allowing for storms to continue southward into our southern
Indiana counties. Latest radar trend looks like the storms may stay
west of I-65 with just stratiform light rain to the east. Storms
also are moving a little faster, which may allow some stronger winds
to mix down. Peak wind gusts over IND`s area were 30-35 on their
side of the border, but would not be surprised to see some 40-50 mph
winds start mixing down.
Issued at 510 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Watching a line of storms over central Indiana this hour. SPC
mesoanalysis shows a little less favorable environment. AMDAR
soundings show a cap at 700 mb RAP data show a warm ridge over the
Ohio River. As such, think severe weather is less likely, except
perhaps up in Scott/Madison counties, Also think that storms likely
will not survive all the way to the river. Timing would be in the
630-7 PM time frame in our northern counties and 8-9 PM for
Louisville/I-71 corridor. Have updated the gridded forecast already.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Widespread low cloudiness has continued across the region which has
kept temperatures down as well as instability. Temperatures at the
top of the hour were in the upper 70s in a few spots, but mainly
temperatures were in the 80-83 degree range. Recent satellite
imagery shows the low stratus finally mixing out. So we may see
temperatures bump up a little bit with some late afternoon
insolation. So, we expect highs on the day to average out in the
lower 80s in most areas.
Moving into the later afternoon and evening hours, surface cold
front remains just north of the region. The front stretched from
near Terre Haute to Indianapolis to Columbus line. Convection has
developed along the front and will continue to drop southeastward
through the late afternoon/evening hours. Latest suite of CAMs
data suggests that convection will be possible across mainly
southern Indiana and northern KY this evening. The best time/window
for storms looks to be in the 5-10PM time frame. Some of the storms
could be strong with damaging winds being the main threat. While
heavy rainfall will accompany the storms, the storms will be
progressive in nature, which should mitigate any widespread flash
flooding concerns. Some localized areas could see some hydro issues
if storms were to train over the same area.
Precipitation looks to end fairly quickly with the loss of heating
this evening and partly cloudy skies are expected overnight. We`ll
see drier air build into the region from the north overnight, along
with clearing skies by sunrise. Lows tonight look to range from the
lower 60s in southern Indiana to the mid-upper 60s in the
central/southern KY.
High pressure will build into the region on Thursday, with much
drier air continuing to filter into the area. It will feel quite
refreshing given the recent muggy conditions across the area. Highs
on Thursday will top out in the 80-85 degree range.
.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
...Hot and Humid This Weekend...
Thursday Night - Monday...
A strong upper level ridge looks to build in over the region late
this week through early next week. This will bring a hot, humid
airmass into the region. Look for high temperatures to climb into
the 90s area wide for Sat/Sun/Mon with night time lows only in the
lower 70s. The heat combined with lower 70s dewpts will result in
heat indices around or just above 100 degrees during peak heating
each afternoon. The hottest day looks to be Sunday. Will continue
to advertise heat safety in our products since this will be the
first stretch of days this summer with heat indices near or just
above 100.
While a stray shower or storm may be possible by Sun or Mon
afternoon, most should remain dry with a strong cap in place.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
Most long range models indicate that the ridge will break down by
Tues or Wed of next week. This will allow scattered showers/storms
back into the region with temperatures cooling back into the mid to
upper 80s.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Line of storms forming ahead of a cold front working into the
HNB/SDF corridor this hour. Still some question on whether they will
survive all the way down, given a slightly more stable airmass
closer to the Ohio River. Have gusty winds and MVFR conditions
during the best time period for both those sites. Not sure LEX will
see it, so went vicinity showers for now. Then LEX/BWG have a better
chance for either low cigs or vsby concerns towards dawn Friday.
Northeast winds dry us out by late morning at all sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...RJS
Short Term...MJ
Long Term....AMS
Aviation...RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
701 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.UPDATE...
Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms finally got going in
the Rolling Plains on an old boundary left over from early morning
convection. These storms have been able to become robust in
finding mixed layer instabilities around 2000 J/kg with no
inhibition. This activity will likely continue through the evening
hours until the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place all three TAF sites. Uncertainty remains
high on whether thunderstorms will develop near any of the TAF
sites tonight into early Thursday morning and will have to once
again leave out due to low confidence on coverage and timing.
Light and variable wind tonight will gradually increase in speed
out of the south tomorrow morning.
Jordan
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/
DISCUSSION...
This mornings convective system remains over the eastern South
Plains and has reversed the earlier very strong surface divergence
with weak convergence, gradually edging back into the western
South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. Cumulus field
developing currently along a RADAR fine line over Lamb County in
the western South Plains, and latest HRRR projections at least
attempt to convect, though highly questionable if the amount shown
in the latest run can occur. Still, a trend seems established,
and combined with a weakening cap and more favorable low level
850 millibar flow across the western South Plains and Panhandle
supports at least a low chance for thunder through the overnight
hours. This would also catch any storms potentially steering all
the way southeast overnight off the Sangre de Christo`s or Raton
Mesa. Generally weak shear and low CAPE levels suggest limited
severe threat, other than rogue strong wind gusts. Meanwhile
overnight, the old convective system appears will be a persistent
inverted upper trough somewhere near the eastern South Plains or
Rolling Plains, and there may yet be a weakness aloft holding
through Thursday as well.
Otherwise, we are keeping Thursday without thunder mention, per
the bulk of solutions which indicate some deep layer drying and a
little more inversion aloft around 450-500 millibars. Expect this
to hold through Friday for that matter with western ridge
extension holding across our area while the center reforms over
the mid-Mississippi valley. To the south-southwest, the remnants
of the Pacific Tropical System Bud will be heading slowly north
along the Sonora-Chihuahua border late Friday before accelerating
northward Friday night and Saturday as it is picked up by the next
fairly strong upper low rotating onto the west coast. The bulk of
Bud will stay to our west, but we may have enough height falls
and moisture for low chance of thunder across our western border
Saturday night.
Behind the lifting out tropical remnants, heights aloft may
rebound a bit Sunday but this is uncertain as solutions
increasingly diverge. In longer ranges, solutions still favor an
improvement in deep layered moisture through the middle of next
week or so but are lacking well defined forcing or lift. We are
holding onto low thunder mention through late Wednesday before
trimming further Thursday mainly due to uncertainty. RMcQueen
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
01
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
955 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the area Thursday night.
High pressure over the Great Lakes Friday will move south,
passing through eastern NC on Saturday, and off the coast of the
southeast US early next week. A weak trof of low pressure will
develop over the middle of the state this weekend and continue
into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 955 PM Wed...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update. Isolated diurnal convection has weakened
considerably during the past hour and not expecting
redevelopment tonight although a few showers could form near the
coast late due to the warm SST`s. Skies will become clear this
evening but the gradient should be sufficient to sustain a light
SW breeze precluding fog development. Lows will range from
around 70 interior, to mid 70s coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 250 pm Wed...A cold front will approach from the north
Thursday, and will be along the south coast by late afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms expected throughout the area in the very
moist and unstable airmass, driven by a combination of the
advancing front and the seabreeze. Severe threat looks small,
but precipitable water values will be just over 2 inches and
steering flow will be only around 20 knots, so locally heavy
rain will be the main concern. Highs will reach around 90 inland
to mid 80s coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...A cold front will push south of the
area Friday. High pressure will build into the area Friday and
Saturday, then slide offshore early next week bringing much
warmer temps.
Thursday night...A cold front will slowly push south of the
area late Thursday night, with convection steadily weakening and
decreasing in coverage from north to south. Lows Thursday night
expected in the mid 60s well inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near
the coast.
Friday and Saturday night...The front is progged to be south of
the area by Friday but could see a few lingering showers across
far southern area early in the morning. High pressure will be
building in from the north Friday and become centered across the
area Friday night and Saturday, then sliding offshore Saturday
night. Expect mainly dry conditions through the period, however
cannot completely rule out a very isolated shower or thunderstorm
well inland Saturday. Dewpoints drop into the low to mid 60s,
and possible upper 50s in places, Friday and Saturday making it
feel more comfortable. Highs will generally be in the mid 80s
both days, though NE winds may keep the northern OBX around 80
Friday, while lows will be in the 60s.
Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure will be centered offshore
Sunday through Tuesday with upper ridging building in from the
west. Limited rain chances through this period but isolated
afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. Return flow with the high offshore will bring a warm
up through the period. Highs Sunday expected around 90 inland to
mid 80s coast. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days with
850mb temps approaching 20C and highs are expected in the
low/mid 90s inland to mid to upper 80s coast with heat indices
possibly reaching around 100-105F, especially Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/...
As of 600 PM Wed...Expecting prevailing VFR conditions through
early Thu afternoon. Low level mixing should preclude fog
formation overnight. There is sufficient low level moisture for
some low cloud development but none of the guidance is
indicating much of a signal for this thus any low clouds should
be brief and transient as depicted in the HRRR ceiling
forecasts. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop after
2 PM Thu with periodic sub VFR conditions.
Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...A front will drop into the area
Thursday and push south of the area Thursday night and early
Friday morning bringing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms and periods of sub-VFR conditions. High pressure
will build into the area Friday and Saturday, then slide
offshore by Sunday with pred VFR conditions expected and only a
very isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thu/...
As of 955 PM Wed...Southwest flow continues overnight with high
pressure off the southeast coast. Latest obs show SW winds
10-20 kt across the waters with seas 3-4 ft. A cold front will
move in from the north Thursday. Winds north of Cape Hatteras
will veer to west then north in the afternoon, but remain
southwest south of Hatteras. Pressure gradient will not tighten
much ahead of the front and winds expected to continue averaging
10-15 knots. Seas through the short term 3-5 north of Cape
Lookout and 2-4 south.
Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...A front will slowly push through the area
Thursday night with high pressure building into the area Friday
and Saturday, which then slides offshore by Sunday. SW winds
around 10-15 kt expected ahead of the front and some high res
models showing winds increasing to 15-20 kt across the southern
waters for a time Thursday afternoon. Winds become N/NE around
5-10 kt after the front pushes into the area. A bit stronger
surge, NE around 10-15 kt, expected Friday as high pressure
builds into the area. E/SE flow around 5-10 kt expected
Saturday, becoming S/SW 5-15 kt on Sunday. Seas expected around
3-5 ft Thursday morning subside to 2-4 ft Thursday afternoon
with generally 2-3 ft expected Friday through Sunday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/HSA
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD/HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK/MS
MARINE...JME/SK/CQD/HSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated that the shortwave trough that
brought shra/tsra across Upper Michigan was moving quickly east
through Lake Huron. Mid level and sfc ridging were moving into the
region with wnw winds gusting into the 20-30 mph range. Sunshine
with heating/mixing has dropped dewpoints into the upper 30s and
lower 40s west to the upper 40s east resulting in RH values in the
25-30 pct range. Fortunately, widespread rain in the 0.25-0.50 range
with locally higher amounts early this morning has at least
temporarily limited the wildfire potential.
Tonight, although diminishing winds with mostly clear skies should
allow temps to drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s, boundary layer
winds remaining in the 10-20 knot range will keep min readings
from falling off too far.
Thursday, expect light winds with the sfc ridge building over the
area. 850 mb temps to around 15C will support inland readings into
the lower 80s. Otherwise, prominent lake breezes will keep temps
in the 60s along the Great Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018
Although it`ll be a quiet start to the long-term period, an active
pattern seems to be a safe bet for this weekend. There are still
some model differences in the days 3 plus time frame, but the
overall predictability of multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms impacting the Upper Peninsula lines up well amongst
the long-range models.
Upper Michigan will be on the periphery of a mid- to upper-level
ridge that will be parked in the general vicinity of the Mid-
Mississippi into Tennessee valleys. As a result, the local
forecast area will be in its ring of fire with warm, moist air
readily advecting in. The first shortwave to traverse through
arrives on Friday, with additional perturbations riding along the
ridge`s periphery through the weekend. By early next week, while
there are some larger discrepancies in the model solutions, the
general consensus is that a closed low ejecting out of the Rockies
will cross the Northern Plains, eventually tracking through the
Great Lakes region. This appears to be the system that will break
Upper Michigan free from the discussed pattern.
Temperatures continue to trend on the warm side for this weekend,
with upper 80s peaking on Saturday and Sunday. Should the
aforementioned low come to fruition, cooler air should be allowed
to return areawide by early next week. Look for lows in the 50s
and 60s throughout the long-term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 752 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018
Gusty w to nw winds will diminish over the next hr or two as daytime
heating is lost. Light winds under 10kt will then prevail thru the
remainder of the fcst period. Under a dry air mass, VFR conditions
will be the rule at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru Thu.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 408 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018
West northwest winds to 30 knots will diminish this evening. Then
winds should remain below 20kts through the rest of the forecast
period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
006.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018
...A few severe thunderstorms possible southeast plains through this
evening...near critical fire weather conditions possible
mountains/valleys on Thursday...
Dew points have stayed up in the 50s across the majority of the
southeast plains through 18z and seems to be verifying more closely
to the NamNest 12z run vs the drier HRRR runs. Main challenge for
this afternoon will be how quickly the dry line will mix eastward as
afternoon convection gets going and moves eastward off the
mountains. Dew point at Colorado City dropped from the upper 40s
into the upper 30s as of 20z and convection appears to be pretty
high based. Other areas around the Pikes Peak region however have
seen dew points hang in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Suspect that
CAPE will continue to drop off as dew points erode away from the
mountains but a severe storm or two will still be possible through
the late afternoon and evening as storms encounter richer low level
moisture and sufficient CAPE of up to 1500+ j/kg. Deep layer shears
are ranging around 30-35 kts sufficient for some storm organization.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary storm threats.
Farther west...drier dew points will limit thunderstorm coverage and
strength but could see some erratic gusty winds and lightning from
these.
For Thursday...weak shortwave back across AZ will be moving through
western CO during the morning. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some
isolated showers during the morning along the Continental Divide as
a result. As it moves through the remainder of the area on
Thursday...lee trof deepens and kicks eastward in the afternoon.
This will bring drier and hotter conditions to much of the area.
Timing of the forcing moving through may limit thunderstorm coverage
out west, so while there is some risk for dry thunderstorms, think
that the coverage will remain isolated. Of greater concern is the
potential for critical fire weather conditions to develop along the
lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains. Only area hitting
critical fire weather conditions appears to be a small area of
Chaffee county (roughly Buena Vista to Salida) and across the lower
elevations of Fremont county. Gusty winds may also spread across
limited portions of southern El Paso and northern Pueblo
county...but the duration and coverage looks too limited at this
point to warrant a Red Flag Warning. Later shifts will need to
monitor this potential as new model runs arrive. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Thursday night-Friday night...Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly
through the end of the work week, as Eastern Pacific energy digs
across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. Latest models
continue to indicate available moisture increasing, especially the
western half of the area, supporting better chances of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms, especially across the higher
terrain along and west of the ContDvd. Still can`t rule an isolated
dry thunderstorm, however should see more wetting rains across the
higher terrain, which will limit fire weather concerns. Further
east, warming temperatures aloft and low level moisture mixing out
should limit convection across the Plains. Again, can`t rule out an
isolated high based thunderstorm in the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Temperatures to stay above seasonal levels, with
highs in the 90s to around the century mark across the Southeast
Plains, and 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
Saturday-Sunday...Models continue to support a cooler and wetter
pattern developing across the region through the weekend, as a broad
upper trough carves out across the Great Basin. This brings deep
southerly flow aloft across the region and opens the door to
increasing Pacific moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Bud,
with NHC tracks into central New Mexico by 12Z Sunday. Saturday
still looks to be the wettest day, especially over western portions
of the area, as short wave energy ejects out across the Rockies.
Models indicating pwats increasing to between 1 and 1.5 inches
across the area on Saturday, which is over the 90th percentile for
mid June based on GJT soundings, leading to potential for locally
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding over recent burn scars.
The southerly flow aloft will keep storms moving, however, could see
storms training across the higher terrain, and will need to continue
to monitor later model runs. Flow aloft goes more west to southwest
on Sunday, which looks to push the bulk of the Pacific moisture and
the remnants of Bud south and east of the area. However, a cold
front looks to push south across the northern high plains and into
northeastern Colorado. Models keep this boundary north of Palmer Dvd
through the day, though could bring increasing low level moisture
and chances of storms to northern portions of the area Sunday night.
Monday-Wednesday...Models differ on upper features with the GFS
developing drier westerly flow aloft, where as the EC keeps a broad
upper trough across the West Coast and Great Basin with moist south
to southwest flow aloft. GFS ensembles are similar to the EC with
broad southwest flow aloft, which gives credence to a cooler and
wetter EC solution through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the
mountains and drift off into the adjacent lower elevations. KCOS
and KPUB stand the best chance of seeing TSRA at the terminals
between 20-00z, with COS being on the earlier side of this window
and KPUB on the latter side. KALS could also see VCTS which could
result in erratic gusty outflow winds.
Winds will increase from the southwest on Thursday with gusts to
around 20-25 kts in the afternoon at all three terminals.
Thunderstorm chances will be lower as temperatures warm and the
atmosphere dries out again. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
721 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.UPDATE...
To add some pops/wx for 00-03Z
&&
.SHORT TERM...
KSHV 88D is showing an outflow boundary lit up with thunderstorm
actiivity from near Magnolia to El Dorado to Crossett with still
other thunderstorms down along I-20 from Ruston to Monroe. Gusty
winds to 30 mph will be common with brief heavy rainfall. A few
isolated thunderstorms are on their last leg in deep east TX. The
HRRR is still going with activity down into cen LA through 05Z so
we will watch this activity for a couple or few hours. Otherwise
warm and muggy with lower 90s now seeing a slow fall through the
80s this evening, except of course where outflowed or better yet
rained on. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, watching a push of TS activity out of S AR into
N LA affecting KELD/KMLU over the next few hours with gusty wind
to 30KT with lower vsby near downpours. Otherwise, warm and muggy
with S/SW wind. CLimb winds are SW-NW less than 20KT and E above
20kft. 10-20KT. Outlook for Thursday is much the same with VCTS
and amendments for pop up convection through the weekend. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/
Scattered convection has developed in Central Arkansas along a
remnant outflow boundary. Farther south, more isolated showers and
storms associated with the sea breeze has developed across
portions of Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. The Arkansas
convection, while quite robust, is making very slow progress
southward. All of this activity is mainly diurnally driven and
should gradually dissipate during the evening hours, but a few
locations in Southern Arkansas could be affected before the storms
wane.
A broad upper ridge will continue to move northward into the
Southern Plains. The expansion of the ridge across Southeast
Oklahoma should keep the best chances for diurnal convection
mainly along and south of the Interstate 30 corridor, and
especially southeast of a line from Toledo Bend Dam to Monroe LA.
Conditions will generally be similar to today, so daytime high
temperatures should also be similar on Thursday.
CN
LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/
Stubborn UA ridge centered across the Desert Southwest today will
commence to shift to the north of the Four-State Region by the end
of this week, resulting in southeast flow aloft. Ensuing srly sfc
flow will maintain a fetch of rich Gulf moisture across the FA and
when coupled with daytime destabilization /and the center of the UA
ridge not directly overhead/ may result in diurnally driven isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.
As typical of this time of year, can not rule out a few of the
storms reaching strong levels with brief gusty winds and occasional
cloud to ground lightning being the primary threats, but overall the
severe weather threat will be low given lack of UL support.
Early next week may prove to become interesting as the National
Hurricane Center has focused on an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms across the western Caribbean. Computer models hint at
this system drifting northwestward to across the southeast TX coast
Sunday night and to across the FA Monday morning/afternoon, driven
by a broad UA ridge that will then become centered across the
southeast CONUS. Subsequently, bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall
could impact mainly the western-half of the CWA early next week. Of
course the exact track of the disturbance could change so be sure to
stay up-to-date with the latest weather information. Thereafter, the
center of UA ridge will retrograde back southwestward but this time,
become centered across the central and southern portions of the CWA.
Could therefore see diurnally driven convection more so across
southeast OK and portions southwest AR.
Daytime temps will remain warm in the lower to middle 90s through
early weekend but will drop down into the middle to upper 80s to
lower 90s early next week, with the onset of the Gulf disturbance
and thus associated increased cloud cover and rainfall.
/29/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 94 75 95 / 20 20 10 20
MLU 74 92 74 93 / 30 30 20 30
DEQ 72 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 75 94 75 93 / 20 20 10 20
ELD 72 94 74 93 / 30 20 10 20
TYR 75 93 75 94 / 10 20 10 20
GGG 75 94 74 94 / 10 20 10 20
LFK 74 94 74 94 / 20 30 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24/09/29
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
636 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Thursday.
Carrying VCSH groups at our southern terminals this evening prior
to 01Z, given radar trends with isolated to widely scattered
coverage of showers across the southeastern part of our area.
The SREF and the 18Z models are less favorable for low cloud
development into the southeastern part of our area early Thursday
morning. Carrying just a scattered low cloud layer with no
ceilings at KJCT and KSOA. South-southeast winds will continue
tonight through Thursday. Winds could become somewhat gusty at
KABI and KSJT by afternoon, but anticipate that most if not all
gusts will be less than 20 knots.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
Scattered cumulus clouds are indicated on afternoon visible
satellite imagery, while surface observations show temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s, with dewpoints in the low
to mid 60s. Winds are generally from the southerly direction at 5
to 10 mph. Expect highs today to reach into the mid to upper 90s.
SPC Mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/KG of SB CAPE across the
forecast area, and the HRRR and TTU WRF show the potential for a
few brief isolated storms/showers across the region this
afternoon.
Tonight through Thursday should be dry as an upper level ridge
persists over the region, with overnight lows in the low 70s and
highs tomorrow once again in the mid to upper 90s. Skies should be
mostly clear, with only a slight chance of some low clouds moving
into the Northwest Hill Country late tonight/early Thursday
morning.
SJH
LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Upper level high pressure will move east into southeast Texas
this weekend. This will open up the moisture return from the Gulf
of Mexico and weaken the persistent cap over the region. The GFS
and to certain extent the EC model, are not as optimistic with
rainfall as yesterday, but still indicate scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the Monday to Wednesday time range.
Isolated showers and thunderstorm are possible beginning in
Saturday in southeastern zones with isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the region Sunday. Highs in the mid 90s are
expected into Saturday, falling in the upper 80s to lower 90s next
week, with increased clouds and shower and thunderstorm activity.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 96 73 96 / 5 0 0 5
San Angelo 71 96 72 96 / 5 5 5 5
Junction 70 94 71 94 / 5 5 5 5
Brownwood 71 94 72 95 / 5 5 5 5
Sweetwater 72 95 73 95 / 5 0 0 5
Ozona 70 92 71 92 / 5 5 0 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018
.UPDATE...
Light flow and deep moisture allowed scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop across much of the area
this afternoon, with the majority of the storms now
clustered across the interior. However, HRRR and other high
resolution models have been indicating that a few storms
could still work back towards the west coast of Florida
this evening along outflow boundaries before midnight.
Otherwise, convection should gradually subside after sunset,
with generally rain free conditions expected to set in by
midnight and hold through the morning hours on Thursday.
A few adjustments were made to the rain chances and sky
cover forecasts for the next few hours to keep up with
radar and satellite trends. Otherwise, no significant
updates needed for the evening update.
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will gradually dissipate through the
next few hours, but will continue to be possible in the
vicinity of area terminals through around 03-04z. As
thunderstorms move over individual terminals, periods of
MVFR or IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible, potentially
lasting up to an hour or more due to slow storm motion. VFR
conditions are expected to hold after 04z, until afternoon
storms begin to develop again around 17z on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across Florida
and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the
week, with generally light winds and seas expected to
continue. Daily thunderstorms will develop, mainly over the
land areas, but a few thunderstorms could form over the
Gulf waters as well, and afternoon storms will have the
possibility of shifting into the coastal waters creating
locally hazardous boating conditions.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 77 90 78 88 / 50 30 20 30
FMY 74 91 75 90 / 30 30 10 30
GIF 73 92 74 91 / 50 70 20 40
SRQ 75 89 77 87 / 40 20 20 20
BKV 71 90 74 90 / 20 40 20 30
SPG 77 89 79 89 / 40 20 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
Coastal Sarasota.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley/Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin