Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/12/18


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
850 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 839 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Little overall change with this update. The ND ARB Bowman radar has shown increasing returns across southwest North Dakota over the past couple hours through 0140 UTC. NDDOT webcams depict rain reaching the ground, despite the dry low levels. Thus, have increased PoPs through the remainder of the evening and through the overnight as rain showers expand east. UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Maintained a dry forecast for the evening as very dry low levels reflected by large surface temperature and dewpoint spreads should prevent the vast majority of precipitation from reaching the ground from weak radar returns thus far early this evening. Otherwise, the CAMs through the 22 UTC HRRR continue to favor a band of rain showers developing across southwest and much of central North Dakota overnight in association with the arrival of the shortwave across Montana. Rather weak mid level lapse rates should be the limiting factor to thunderstorm potential. Still some uncertainty how much rainfall will be lost initially to evaporation given the dry low levels. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 The highlight of the short term forecast is on shower potential overnight southwest and central. Afternoon GOES-16 imagery shows a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward across central MT, and the 12 UTC global model suite and convection-allowing models through the 18 UTC HRRR offer a strong consensus for showers developing in southwest ND by late evening and expanding into central ND by about 06 UTC in advance of that wave. Stout low- and midlevel dry advection in the wake of last night`s shortwave trough passage has yielded surface dewpoints as low as 30 F in western and south central ND as of mid afternoon, and upstream trajectories suggest lower tropospheric moistening will be slow to occur ahead of the next wave. This suggests that model QPF output could be overzealous tonight despite a burst of strong synoptic-scale ascent driven by DCVA ahead of the sharp 500 mb height anomaly associated with the shortwave. Accordingly, forecast soundings reveal large temperature-dewpoint spreads in the 0-3-km AGL layer even during simulated precipitation tonight, but given the strong QPF signal and upstream shower activity in southern MT, we chose to carry PoPs up to 60 percent in parts of southwest and central ND overnight. Another fast-moving shortwave trough is expected to cross the area Tuesday afternoon within broad cyclonic flow aloft. Both the NMM and ARW cores of the 12 UTC convection-allowing model guidance do simulate low-topped showers Tuesday afternoon amid steepening low- and mid-level lapse rates, so we carried a slight chance of them in the forecast central. Otherwise, a well-mixed boundary layer will also support breezy west winds by Tuesday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Our attention is on the risk of severe thunderstorms from late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night in advance of a strong upper-level shortwave trough that`s expected to eject from the northern Rockies into central Canada by Friday. A surface low is expected to deepen during the day Thursday and the associated isallobaric response will assist southerly return flow that will likely yield afternoon dewpoints solidly in the middle 60s F per the 09 UTC SREF and 12 UTC ECMWF solutions. Both the 12 UTC GFS and NAM suggest higher dewpoints -- in the lower to mid 70s F on the GFS -- but both model cores, and in particular the GFS, have had a distinct high bias with surface dewpoints in recent events, likely due to an overestimation of evapotranspiration that could in part be resulting from a delayed growing season following the cold spring. Thus, some of the higher-end parameter space being offered by the GFS and NAM solutions may not be reachable, but even the lower-dewpoint solutions support strong instability with MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. Strengthening southwest flow aloft will likely yield a supercell-favorable wind profile, and greater height falls could aid upscale growth into an eastward- moving MCS by Thursday night. However, one potential failure mode with this scenario could be mid-level capping as global models have consistently advertised a strong inversion at the base of a formidable elevated mixed layer in the pre-frontal regime, especially in the south. Thereafter, southwest flow is expected to persist aloft through the upcoming weekend, but the primary surface frontal zone with its richer boundary layer moisture and associated bouyancy may sink southward into the central Plains. That could result in a more showery or even stratiform nature to the precipitation by the weekend if the 12 UTC GFS and ECMWF are correct. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 839 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Rain showers across southwest North Dakota as of 0140 UTC will continue to expand into most of central North Dakota through the late evening and overnight. Rain showers may continue across the James River Valley through 14-15 UTC Tuesday. A breezy Tuesday is expected with westerly wind gusts of 25-30kts across western and much of central North Dakota. VFR conditions expected for the 00 UTC TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PA SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...PA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
737 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will remain over the eastern states through Thursday. A back door front will slip slowly south into the region tonight and stall over the CSRA and southern Midlands Tuesday. The front will gradually become diffuse Wednesday. Our region will remain between an upper ridge to our west, and an upper low to our east, late this week into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... This evening, outflow boundaries and abundant low level moisture will support areas of thunderstorms. Convection may be enhanced with an h7 shortwave trough in the area. The chance of thunderstorms will continue through tonight because of convergence along a backdoor front pushing into the area from the north. There is uncertainty with the coverage later tonight because much of the instability may get released by previous convection. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong downburst winds in the stronger cells. There may also be hail with considerable convective instability in the hail growth region. Cloudiness and mixing along the front favors the higher temperature guidance for tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Weak upper troughiness will remain along the E CONUS. A moist atmosphere will remain in place. The back door front is expected to slip south and set up along the CSRA and S Midlands by afternoon and stall. This is expected to be the main focusing mechanism for convection. Moderate instability, steep mid- level lapse rates and a predominant surface boundary support a chance of severe weather in the southern FA. LI values around -6 suggest stronger cells may be capable of producing damaging downburst winds and large hail. Shear values remain weak which limits the threat of organized thunderstorms. Cooler, drier air and mostly cloudy skies are expected to reduce convective coverage to the north of the front. Little overall change Wednesday. Nearly stationary surface boundary may gradually become diffuse. A moist atmosphere to remain over the region. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Little change expected Thursday. Upper trough energy and a moist atmosphere expected to promote at least scattered diurnal thunderstorms. From Friday into early next week, the latest GFS and EC indicate an upper ridge to develop to our west over the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, with upper trough offshore the east coast, with upper energy possibly cutting off the Mid Atlantic coast. Some uncertainties regarding timing of upper disturbances passing through from the north. Also some questions on extent of atmospheric moisture, with some indications of drier air possibly filtering into the region late in the forecast period. Went with model blend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Afternoon convection has generally shifted away from the terminals this evening with only some light rain prevailing at AGS/DNL to start the forecast period. However, colliding outflow boundaries are occurring near Columbia and kicking off new convection as the HRRR depicted so will include VCTS at CAE/CUB from 00z-02z with tempo lower restrictions in vsbys due to storms. Otherwise, expect convection to wind down by midnight as a weak backdoor front slides south through the area later tonight shifting winds to the north-northeast around 5 to 8 knots as it passes. Low clouds expected to arrive behind the front with MVFR/IFR cigs spreading southward across the region reaching CAE/CUB/OGB by 04-06z and AGS/DNL by 08z-11z. Could see some MVFR vsbys due to fog at AGS/OGB ahead of the front with light winds but some uncertainty due to debris clouds from afternoon convection. Expect some improvement through the afternoon with diurnal heating. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be restrictions in stratus and fog during the early morning hours and also in mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
643 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/ Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Strong to severe thunderstorm development along with very heavy rain were the main focus of the forecast today into this evening across the western portion of the CWA. Leaned toward a blend of the latest HRRR/ESRL HRRR and RAP for timing of convection into the western edges of the CWA this afternoon into tonight. A warm front extended south-southeast from a surface low in southeast SD before extending more eastern over far southern Iowa with a sharp cold front cutting south across eastern Nebraska into Kansas will be the focus of severe weather later today. A few storms continue to fester along the warm front from around Atlantic to Winterset, but remain sub-severe attm. In the warm sector over southwest to western Iowa, very moist and unstable atmosphere as surface temps in the lower 90s and surface dew points in the lower 70s across this area. OAX 19z observed special sounding indicating a classic loaded gun sounding with a decent hodograph suggestion plenty of speed and direction shear in the lower levels. LCL heights range from around 500-1000m, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, very high surface based CAPE, and significant effective helicity ranging as high as 200 m2/s2 along and southwest of the warm front in southern Iowa. The helicity, along with high sigtor and supercell parameters, increases through the rest of the afternoon. Timing of severe convection into the CWA looks to be late in the day, more likely past 22z to 23z in the far west to southwest and possibly even later. Only concern is if current weak convection along the warm front releases an outflow boundary providing another trigger mechanism for storms to develop. The instability gradient follows along with the warm front orientation and any storms that develop are likely to follow this gradient into the southern portions of Iowa. Certainly concerned with the tornadic threat over the far west-central to southwest Iowa as well as the large hail and damaging wind threat through around 02-03z, but storms are anticipated to persist into the late evening. The other potential is very heavy rain with warm layer cloud depths topping out over 14kft and precipitable water values over 1.50 inches and weak Corfidi vectors nearly lined up with the storm motion tonight. Certainly some training is possible late tonight into the overnight hours as well as the very efficient rain producers leading to the potential for flash flooding. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/ Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Wednesday night into Thursday, a quick moving shortwave will bring another round of storms with heavy rain by the early morning hours Thursday. Certainly looking better potential for heavy rain event that severe weather potential with the timing of the convection into the CWA. Otherwise, the main focus of the extended period was on the hot and humid weather conditions late this week into the weekend. No significant change to the ongoing forecast with only a minor tweak to the maximum temperatures on Friday. With the recent rainfall and the crops likely in becoming fully mature, the added low level moisture into the atmosphere is concerning for the heat index values Friday through Sunday. Each day, heat index values top out over 100 degrees. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/ Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Main aviation concern will be with front moving across the state with widespread convection this evening. Will see restrictions to both ceilings and visibilities in and around the thunderstorms with general MVFR ceilings across much of the area otherwise. Will continue to see MVFR to IFR ceilings late tonight into Tuesday morning before some improvement by afternoon as drier air enters the state from the northwest. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Podrazik LONG TERM...Podrazik AVIATION...Cogil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
839 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 827 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Low level easterly flow continues off the Great Lakes with the RAP delaying the initiation of precipitation tonight. The scenario the RAP has been reasonably consistent with is nocturnal convection initiating in a WAA band along an elevated front. Initially the RAP had this convection developing across central Illinois and back building into eastern Iowa. However, recent runs of the RAP now develops the convection in eastern Iowa and builds to the southeast into central Illinois. At the same time, a narrow band of convection has initiated in a theta e gradient along I-35 and is moving east ahead of the severe storms in western Iowa. However, radar trends indicate this band is decaying as it mets drier air. So, have revised the forecast to have nearly all of the area remaining dry up through midnight. Isolated to scattered convection should be seen after midnight but areal coverage may be lower than forecast. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 A band of thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours across far northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa. The storms were producing heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Elsewhere, the sky remained mostly cloudy through the early afternoon, which helped hold temperatures down in the 70s at most locations. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 The main forecast issue is thunderstorm trends and coverage. In the near term, storms in the far south may produce some small hail, but the severe risk is low. Will continue to monitor the flash flood threat, but that area has been quite dry and missed out on the very heavy rain over the past several days. Later tonight, thunderstorm coverage is not expected to be very high. The southwest again looks most favored, with potential for a decaying complex dropping southeast along the instability gradient. Again, the severe risk is low. For Tuesday, a few additional non- severe storms are possible. Expect a warm and muggy day Tuesday, with highs in the 80s. Drier air will be slow to move in behind the exiting front. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 The main issues in the long term period are increasing heat and humidity late week, along with more chances for thunderstorms. Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry with near to slightly above normal temps. At least chance pops continue for every period Wednesday night through Saturday, as several impulses undercut the upper ridge. There will likely be some stormy periods, but plenty of dry weather as well. Overall, areas of heavy rain will likely be the main issue, although cannot rule out some severe storms. For Friday into next Monday, expect an extended period of high heat and humidity, with highs mainly in the 90s and heat index values likely topping 100 degrees, especially south of Interstate 80. Heat advisories and possibly warnings may be needed eventually. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 MVFR/VFR conditions were across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois as flow remains off Lake Michigan. Through 06z/12 MVFR/VFR conditions will continue across the area. After 06z/12 some models are suggesting a band of SHRA/TSRA developing across Illinois and developing northwest into eastern Iowa. Each run delays the start but the scenario continues. Thus after 06z/12 conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR with the possibility of TSRA. After 16z/12 conditions improve to MVFR as a cold front sweep through the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 With increased confidence of surpassing flood stage, issued flood warning for the Wapsi at Anamosa. DeWitt is also forecast to rise above flood stage later this week, but confidence is still low and opted to continue flood watch. Rise continue along other tributaries, mostly notably the Rock and Cedar rivers. Joslin is above flood stage, while Moline is forecast to go into flood tonight. Conesville is not forecast to rise above flood stage for another 72 hours or so, and have maintained the flood watch there. Due to the recent heavy rainfall, the Mississippi River is also on the rise. Portions of the river at and downstream from the Quad Cities may go into action stage later this week. Therefore, those with interests along the river should monitor river levels. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney SHORT TERM...RP Kinney LONG TERM...RP Kinney AVIATION...08 HYDROLOGY...RP Kinney
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 The main concern is in the very short term as the surface cold front moves southeast across the remainder of the area. The front is a little slower than originally thought, just making it through York southwest to Superior, NE and then Osborne, KS. Instability on the warm side of this front is plentiful with around 3000 J/KG. Shear is also abundant about 40kts. CIN is becoming negligible as of this issuance and thus the continued convergence along this front will allow thunderstorms to quickly develop. Do think the Nebraska Highway 81 corridor and then Jewell and Mitchell counties are in the greatest threat for thunderstorms. Think these storms will develop along the front and move eastward into eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas. The main window for thunderstorms in the forecast area (York/Fillmore/Thayer/Mitchell/Jewell counties) is the next few hours (3pm - 6pm). After this initial development, and after the storms move eastward the remainder of the night will be quiet. Tonight temperatures are expected in the mid to upper 50s under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds. Wind are expected to be light and remain northerly during the day Tuesday. While cooler the weekend, highs are still expected to be in the mid 80s to low 90s tomorrow...and likely the coolest day of the forecast. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night as an upper disturbance moves into the central Plains. The best chances will be for Kansas and especially central and southern Kansas with a small chance for north central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Surface high pressure will move off to the east on Wednesday with southerly flow returning. The bigger deal though is that upper level ridging will be building with the main wave quite amplified. Temperatures will only get hotter and hotter throughout the remainder of the work week and weekend. Highs in the 90s and and even low 100s. Heat indices will be approaching or exceeding 100, especially in north central Kansas and SW sections of the forecast area. There will be various chances for thunderstorms off and on throughout the forecast period, especially Wednesday and again when a front moves through at the end of the forecast. There are discrepancies in the timing of the frontal passage, so that may very well change. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Front has swept through the area, with gusty north winds prevailing currently. Expect winds to decrease over the next few hours, becoming light and variable overnight. With light and variable winds and clear skies, HRRR and RAP are trying to develop some fog in portions of the area. Confidence isn`t high, so just included some 6SM BR in the TAFs for now. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Billings Wright LONG TERM...Billings Wright AVIATION...Mangels
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
533 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 353 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Today is a calmer day in the wind and heat department compared to the last few days, with our CWA between high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north. This is allowing for a westerly flow aloft, which is transporting smoke from existing fires across southwest Colorado and eastern Utah to the east. Winds will remain breezy at times this afternoon largely within the 20 to 25 mph range. Conditions remain hazy in the Grand Valley this afternoon due to wildfire smoke from the Trail Mountain Wildfire southwest of Price, Utah. The experimental HRRR smoke model indicates this smoke reaching the Grand Valley late this afternoon and evening and spreading east across the I-70 corridor towards Vail overnight by Tuesday morning. It will generally be hazy so included patchy smoke in the forecast through noon Tuesday. Regarding the smoke from the 416 and Burro Wildfires over the SW San Juans, this smoke is moving quickly to the east this afternoon. Expecting this smoke to once again drift southward this evening as downsloping winds take smoke into the Animas Valley, including Durango, all the way to the New Mexico state line. Visibilities are expected to lower below a quarter mile at times through the overnight hours into late Tuesday morning, so issued another Dense Smoke Advisory for the SW San Juans and Animas River Basin from 9 pm this evening through noon Tuesday. Temperatures will be right around normal today but will quickly rebound to about 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday with H7 temps rising back to 17C to 19C, as high pressure shifts to the southeast and shifts the prevailing upper level winds to the southwest. The southwest winds aloft may help push smoke northward out of the Grand Valley and I-70 corridor Tuesday afternoon as upslope flow also takes place. However, the close proximity of the intense fires in SW Colorado should keep smoke in the forecast with another Dense Smoke Advisory possible Tuesday night as typical downsloping winds take smoke southward into the southern valleys once again. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 353 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Hot and dry conditions will continue Wednesday into Thursday, with the models, especially the GFS, hinting at moisture slowly increasing from the southwest as the high shifts further east with a low pressure trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Precipitable Water (PW) values increase to 0.75 inches over southern Utah by late Wednesday with this moisture moving into western Colorado by Thursday. Moisture will increase more late Friday with values of 0.75 and above across much of the area with values near an inch over the Four Corners. Saturday looks like the wettest day with PW values above an inch across much of the area. Embedded disturbances move through the southwest flow Wednesday through the weekend, acting as a trigger mechanism on any moisture and instability to generate storms. Much of the moisture will remain at the mid and high levels (mainly above 500 mb) until late Friday into Saturday when the low levels begin to moisten up. What this means is that any storms that form in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe will be mainly high based, with dry lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. This translates to potential new wildfire starts with any outflow winds leading to erratic behavior on already existing fires. Better chances of wetting rains will occur late Friday into the weekend, as remnants from Hurricane Bud off the Baja Peninsula get directed northward towards the Four Corners region and across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The ECMWF is on board with this latter onset of moisture late Friday into the weekend as the PacNW trough digs down the west coast with the high pressure ridge amplified over the central Plains and Midwest, allowing for a more direct southerly feed of sub-tropical moisture. The EC wants to hang onto this moisture through Monday, while the GFS wants to dry things out Sunday into Monday. Models tend to want to dry things out too quickly so leaning towards the EC in terms of the moisture hanging around through much of the weekend. The long range models look promising for wetter and more unsettled conditions heading into next week and next month even. Confidence is medium in this moisture increase, but low on the timing of how soon we will see wetting rains. Any moisture will be good to provide some relief from the already dry and hot conditions and help with any existing or new wildfires, but the unfortunate part is the dry lightning threat with the initial onset before the lower atmosphere moistens up by this weekend. Temperatures are projected to be much cooler this weekend with this moisture increase, with values near to a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. An exception will be at KDRO where smoke from the ongoing 416 Wildfire will once again drift southward overnight. Visibilities should hover between 3 to 6 SM between 06Z and 17Z before winds shift after noon. Winds will be light and terrain driven overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Dense Smoke Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Tuesday for COZ019-022. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1037 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front is expected to move south across the region tonight. Behind the front, Tuesday should be relatively cloudy and not as warm. Typical summerlike conditions will return for Wednesday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1030 PM...The backdoor cold front continues to push SWWD through the NC piedmont and eastern Upstate, and it about to the I-26 corridor. Instability is starting to wane ahead of the front, with the SPC mesoanalysis showing about 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE as of 02z. So while convection continues to fire with the front, it`s intensity is not as high as earlier. The severe threat should be about over. Meanwhile, temps are falling across the NW Piedmont with increasing NE winds. I made some minor tweaks to the temp grids, and also updated the PoP to reflect latest obs and radar. This didn`t have much change to the min temps Tuesday morning. As of 800 PM...A broken line of convection has developed along the leading edge of a backdoor cold front across the NC Piedmont, from Boone to Charlotte. The front will likely continue to trigger new storms as it pushes toward the SW thru the rest of the evening. The HRRR maximizes this activity along the NC eastern escarpment and the I-26 corridor of the Upstate late evening thru about 2 AM. I updated the PoPs with the latest CONSShort, which shows this trend. Severe threat still should be marginal, with a few pulse storms producing strong downbursts. Otherwise, only minor tweaks to the grids with this update. Once the front pushes through the FA tonight, instability will become obsolete and sfc high pressure off to the northeast will build in overnight and into Tuesday, allowing for a wedge front to be the main weather pattern feature through the rest of the near term forecast period. Increasing cloud cover tonight is expected to persist through into Tuesday as the feature settles in, allowing for overnight temperatures to remain above normal. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler than today, anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees cooler, with overall light northeast winds prevailing. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 pm EDT Monday...Thanks to the progressive pattern, weak sfc ridging nosed swwd into the cwfa will give to a broader w to sw flow on Wednesday, with developing lee troughing. Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will aid in diurnal deep convective development, with coverage possibly becoming numerous in the mountains. Maximum temperatures should bounce back to around climo. The pattern atop the SE CONUS is progged to change little through Thursday, featuring a weak westerly flow aloft and a non-decsript sfc pattern. Outside of making an upward adjustment to inherited max temps, a pretty typical mid-June day is expected featuring diurnally enhanced tstms. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 pm EDT Monday: Mid level ridging will build across the area during the middle of the week but westerly flow will remain not far to the north. The ridging will strengthen over the middle of the country by next weekend while a low develops just off the mid- Atlantic region. Fairly typical early summer conditions are expected as a result of this pattern. Expect more coverage of diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the week with the coverage being less Friday through the weekend as the ridge asserts its influence. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A backdoor cold front has now pushed through KHKY and KCLT before 00z, and will continue to push southwestward thru the remaining TAF sites this evening. A broken line of convection has developed along the front, affecting KHKY and KCLT. There are a couple of storms behind the front, but overall, expect an MVFR cloud deck and spotty light showers behind the front. The high-res guidance generally agrees that storms will continue to develop in the remaining areas that haven`t had any convection, namely, KAVL, KGSP, and KGMU. This will be late this evening, mainly 02-06z. A weak CAD wedge will develop behind the front overnight and persist thru the day on Tuesday. This will result in widespread IFR to low MVFR cigs, which will lift somewhat in the aftn, but not likely to scatter out. The clouds will limit heating and instability, so areas mainly west and south of the TAF sites will have much chance of showers or storms. KAND will be closest to the front, and will put a PROB30 for late aftn there. Winds will turn out of the NE behind the front and persist thru the period, becoming weaker later on Tuesday. At KAVL, winds will switch to SE by daybreak Tuesday. Outlook: More typical summertime diurnal convection is expected to return Wednesday, as wedge erodes. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, thereafter, primarily in the afternoon, along with morning fog in the mountains and near lakes. Confidence Table... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT High 88% High 82% High 82% High 95% KGSP High 94% High 80% High 89% High 91% KAVL Med 75% Med 76% High 89% High 86% KHKY High 87% High 83% High 84% High 100% KGMU High 90% Med 75% High 84% High 85% KAND High 100% Med 70% High 84% High 92% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...ARK/SGL SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...ARK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
758 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 756 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Storms made an attempt in central KS but fairly quickly died from apparent combo of capping and dry air aloft. Latest run of HRRR seems to have captured this fairly well, and supports fairly quick development 0200-0300 UTC in central KS which then spreads/expands south during the night. This is consistent with the general model trends throughout the day. Grids have been updated to delay the onset slightly. Assuming storms do develop, plan is to expand severe thunderstorm watch south. -Howerton && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Tonight: Main focus is thunderstorm potential. Salient issues include apparently overly generous initialization of 850MB moisture by 1200 UTC models, generally weak upper flow and impressive push on cold front across western KS this morning. These all make timing and location of initiation/onset in the forecast area challenging. Forecast was swayed heavily by combo of afternoon HRRR/RAP forecasts which suggest storms will ramp up around 0000 UTC and dive mainly south. Direction appears to be heavily influenced by cold pool given weak upper flow. Impressive 700-500MB directional shear suggest some large hail possible early with discrete cells, with shear decreasing during the event. Storms and precipitation could linger through daybreak in southeast KS. Tuesday: Storms may linger a bit past daybreak Tuesday in southeast KS, otherwise post frontal/post outflow airmass is expected. Models seem a bit optimistic with synoptic front across the state during the day. Assuming storms develop as anticipated tonight, seems more likely that the effective front will be in OK, with a much slower return to the north. This would push best chance for precipitation much later Tuesday night, potentially close to daybreak Wednesday. Obviously boundary location will impact temperatures and heat indices as well. Wednesday-Thursday: Potential for extensive clouds/precipitation Wednesday, especially early in the day. This makes maxes Wednesday a bit challenging. Otherwise, drier and warmer airmass anticipated on Thursday. Nudged initialization maxes up a bit based on 1000-850mb thicknesses, and winds up a bit given surface pressure gradient and 850MB flow. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Increased temperatures/winds slightly on Friday, as per Thursday forecast. Otherwise dry and relatively warm. While a rogue storm or two is possible at peak heating, chances of storms too low to mention for most of this period. Upper ridge axis drifts east and builds, so only minor changes in heights is forecast. There is some consensus for small storm chances in northern sections with approaching front on Monday. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 A frontal system will be moving through the region this evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe storms are possible and are likely to affect all terminals at some point during the hear TAF period. Only RSL is not expected to have thunderstorm activity this evening. Once the thunderstorms pass, there may be some residual rain for a few hours but VFR conditions will quickly return. VFR conditions are also expected to dominate during the day tomorrow for all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 73 94 71 90 / 30 10 40 40 Hutchinson 69 93 68 89 / 30 10 50 40 Newton 70 92 68 88 / 40 10 50 40 ElDorado 70 91 69 87 / 30 10 40 40 Winfield-KWLD 69 94 71 89 / 10 10 40 40 Russell 62 92 65 91 / 10 10 50 20 Great Bend 62 92 66 90 / 10 10 50 20 Salina 67 93 67 90 / 30 10 50 30 McPherson 68 93 67 89 / 30 10 50 30 Coffeyville 67 93 72 89 / 40 20 30 50 Chanute 67 92 70 87 / 50 10 40 50 Iola 67 91 70 86 / 40 10 40 50 Parsons-KPPF 67 93 71 88 / 40 10 40 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ MESOSCALE...PJH SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
825 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 825 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Most of the region has been worked over by the areas of peak heating. Exception is around KBWG, where a new complex of storms just south of the KY/TN border is slowly creeping towards. Will be watching for any new development, but think most of the severe threat is over for the evening hours. The storm threat is not though. Airmass is still fairly juicy, and with colliding boundaries and an effective warm front running from near OWB to near BWG, expect the chance for storms to continue through the night. Best chances overnight, based on latest HRRR and NAM, run in the HNB/SDF/LEX corridor. Issued at 550 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Strong to severe storms look likely through the evening. Storms crossing portion of central and east central KY early this evening have produced damaging winds and hail up to nickel size. Expect storms to continue to develop over portions of west central and south central KY along a boundary extending SE from the Owensboro, KY area. Plenty of CAPE and DCAPE exist along and south of this boundary so the strongest storms will continue to pose a damaging wind threat. Small hail, very heavy rainfall, dangerous cloud to ground lightning may also accompany storms. Some areas near the aforementioned boundary may receive repeated storms this evening and localized flooding may become a threat. Stay tuned to the latest forecast updates for more information. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 (Tonight - Tuesday) - Shower and Thunderstorm chances remain. Elevated flow continues to be weak. Precipitable water levels across central Kentucky will stay above 1.5", and in Southern Indiana and along the Ohio River, precipitable water levels could go over 2". The muggy damp air is in place, but with the weak shear in place, organized severe weather isn`t expected. Instability is moderate, so it won`t take much to initiate showers and thunderstorms. Boundary interaction and subtle outflow boundaries will likely be the cause of any shower or storm. Localized minor flooding will be the greatest threat through Tuesday night. Areas that see multiple rounds or high rates of rain could see localized flooding. An expanded flood watch was being considered as the threat of rain continues, but with a lack of current shower activity and low confidence, current thinking is a flood watch will not be needed. Lightning and wind are always a threat with thunderstorms precautions should be taken for safety if storms are near. .Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 322 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Tuesday Night - Wednesday... A weak cold front trailing from a Canadian system will push into the region, with another round of showers and storms ahead of it on Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, the front will stall near the area or just east. Could see some redevelopment along this boundary mainly across our south and east, but expect southern IN to mostly stay dry by Wednesday. May still carry a 20 pop as the ECMWF has not come into line with the other model consensus for dry. Not much of a temperature change behind the boundary, so look for the upper 80s for highs. Wednesday Night - Thursday... Dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure build in for this time frame. Should see a dry stretch of weather with lows in the upper 60s, and highs around 85 to 90. Thursday Night - Monday... Upper ridge axis originating from the southern Plains will steadily move into our region and center near the area over the weekend. This should generally lead to a hotter/drier forecast, although cannot rule out a few diurnally driven showers and storms each afternoon/evening. Much will depend on how strong of a subsidence inversion develops beneath this upper ridge. Look for highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each day, with mild lows in the upper 60s to around 70. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 730 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Multiple rounds of showers and storms will continue through the TAF period as we remain in an unsettled pattern. Forecast TAFs are mainly VFR because t-storm coverage is expected to be isld-sct over the region much of the time. However, it should be noted that MVFR or lower conditions are possible in any t-storm and may be added to the TAF sites as confidence increases in storms affecting a site. This evening, BWG stands the best chance at getting a t-storm in a moderately unstable airmass south of a warm front. The front is close enough to HNB/SDF that they may also see a stray storm. LEX has the least chance for a t-storm, but many boundaries in the area exist from earlier storms and could cause convection near LEX. Overnight generally expect a decrease in storm strength and coverage with showers more common during the pre-dawn hrs. More t-storm chances are expected for Tues afternoon/evening. Winds will generally be SW-W for much of the TAF period at most sites. The exception for that is this evening at SDF/HNB/LEX with winds from the E for a time. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...RJS/AMS Short Term...KDW Long Term...BJS Aviation...AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
644 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. There is slim chance of TSRA in the vicinity of the terminals toward the end of the forecast period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018/ DISCUSSION... RAP analysis shows a high pressure ridge building in stronger over West Texas this afternoon, with not a cloud in the sky as of 2 PM. Hurricane Bud was just making his way onto the CONUS view of satellite in the Eastern Pacific, roughly 450 miles south/southeast of the southern tip of the Baja. Bud will make an appearance in this manuscript later. Otherwise, the high shows no signs of moving residency until at least the end of the weekend. Kept highs on Tuesday on the low end of guidance across most of the CWA as we seem to be struggling to reach anticipated highs today. Part of that is slightly due to a weak cold front that pushed through earlier today, but we have also gotten some much needed rainfall over the past several days. Moisturized ground around here can pull a real doozy on afternoon highs. The effect won`t be as pronounced by tomorrow, but it should be just enough to justify the low end of guidance. As for convection tomorrow, the best shot will indeed be in the Texas Panhandle, though, it can`t be ruled out that storms make it into the northern tier of counties in the evening. Especially if the convection is dying as it heads south, wind will be a fairly good threat. Lowering thickness on Wednesday will give some relief, bringing temps down at least a few degrees. The ridge shifts east by the weekend with upper troughing digging from the Pac-NW. Now we bring in Bud. Hurricane Bud should be but a depression by Saturday, but he could still do some good. Depending on how far east that ridge moves, Bud`s moisture could move into our area. Models are not yet in agreement on this solution. In fact, at this point, Bud`s big benefactor appears to be our neighbor, New Mexico, but there are model solutions pulling the Pac-NW trough south, the ridge east, and creating a great corridor for moisture...enough for both NM and West Texas to share. Here in West Texas, we could also benefit from a decaying tropical system in the Gulf, but that is much too far out to be seen. At this point, let`s say our chances for decent, multi-day rain late this weekend into early next week are the best they have been in a long, long time. Bud, you`re welcome in Texas anytime! && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall south of the region overnight with high pressure building in from the north. The front will slowly lift back north on Tuesday as it weakens. High pressure offshore will dominate Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will move through by the end of the week followed by high pressure building in from the north over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1000 PM Monday...Only change with update was to drop tstm mention over southern sections after midnight. Precip coverage continues to diminish with front south of area but latest meso models continue to indicate some scattered light shower threat overnight, thus keeping lingering low chance POPs. /Previous discussion/ As of 230 PM Mon...Numerous showers and thunderstorms cont to grad push S over the srn tier this aftn along and just ahead of the cold front. This convection plus residual rain will result in high pops srn tier into the evening. Large cape values wl cont threat for a few damaging wind gusts next few hrs srn sections along with frequent lightning and very heavy rain. More stable air is pushing in across the N behind the front and most mdls not showing much precip so lowered pops significantly with mainly shra. Later tonight as front pushes S expect decreasing precip chcs srn sections. Lows will be mainly in the 65 to 70 dgr range. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Mon...Front will slowly begin to lift back N Tuesday. Moisture will remain quite high and with some weak short wave energy crossing expect good cvrg of shra and a few storms, especially in the aftn. Increased pops a bit to likely over the SW 2/3 rds of area with chc far NE. Clouds and mainly onshore flow will result in cooler highs mainly 80 to 85. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 4 AM Monday...Unsettled weather expected much of the work week with a moist unstable airmass in place and a frontal boundary in the vicinity. A stronger front is expected to push across the area late in the week with drier conditions next weekend. Tuesday Night...A front is expected to be gradually lift back north Tuesday evening. Frontal convergence, weak shortwave energy moving through flow aloft along with a moist and unstable airmass in place, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area during the evening hours. Wednesday through Friday...The front lifts back north of the area by Wednesday with shortwave energy and an attendant surface low tracking from the Great Lakes into northern New England. Models continue differ whether the trailing cold front briefly pushes into the area late Wednesday night/early Thursday before lifting back to the north. The GFS/CMC are a bit stronger with the front pushing into the area with enhances showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night but this isn`t supported in the ECMWF. A stronger upper level system dives south across the eastern CONUS late in the week with a stronger cold front progged to push across the area. Models are not in very good agreement with the strength of the upper level system or the timing of the front. The ECMWF is stronger and faster with this system pushing into the area Thursday night into Friday while other global models are slower and a bit weaker holding off until late Friday or early Saturday. Predominantly SW flow will bring very warm conditions with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s inland and mid/upper 80s coast. Saturday and Sunday...The northern stream system continues to push south across the area Saturday but there is quite a bit of model spread with the evolution of the upper level system and potential surface low development off the coast. Models are even trying to develop a cut-off low somewhere off the Southeast coast late in the weekend. While large model differences are leading to a low confidence forecast as we move into next weekend, it does appear we may briefly move into a period of drier conditions and a more comfortable airmass, especially on Sunday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/... As of 730 PM Monday...Cold front has pushed south of area and will stall overnight. Current mix of VFR/sub- VFR will persist next few hours as lingering showers diminish, then widespread IFR CIGs expected all sites late evening into Tue morning underneath developing frontal inversion. As front begins to lift north Tuesday, CIGs expected to lift to VFR by afternoon but scattered tstms will develop as well. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 430 AM Monday...Unsettled conditions expected to prevail through the period with a moist unstable airmass in place and a frontal boundary across or near the area much of the period. Pred VFR expected outside of convection except during the late night/early morning periods when patchy fog will be possible each day. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tue... As of 1000 PM Monday...No changes with this update as gusty NE surge continuing over northern and central waters. /Previous discussion/ As of 830 PM Monday...NE wind surge has increased over northern and central waters and posted/adjusted SCA there including sounds and Alligator River. Leaned toward latest HRRR which has good handle on current obs. Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout will see a few hours of gusts to 25-30 KT as well but do not expect long enough duration to post SCA there at this time. SCA for sounds/river will run until late tonight while elevated seas will keep SCA outer waters through Tuesday. /Previous discussion/ As of 230 PM Mon...Cold front will cont to push S thru srn tier this evening before stalling. Gusty NE winds will grad develop espcly nrn and central wtrs tonight and cont into Tue with winds becoming more ESE Tue. These winds will result in seas grad building to 5 to 7 feet central and nrn wtrs and cont SCA N of Ocracoke. Wind gusts will approach SCA lvls on sounds but for now will keep just below and cont to monitor. Winds will be a bit lighter srn wtrs with speeds mainly 15 kts or less and seas 2 to 4 feet. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 430 AM Monday...SCA conditions expected to continue through Tuesday evening across the northern and central coastal waters. Another chance for SCA conditions will be possible across the central and southern coastal waters late Wednesday into Wednesday night. A front is expected to lift back to the N Tuesday evening. The front may dip back into the area Wednesday night/early Thursday but not all models showing this happening leading to lower confidence in winds this period. S to SE winds around 5-15 kt Tuesday night becomes SW by early Wednesday, which increases to 10-20 kt during the afternoon and could be as strong as 20-25 kt late Wednesday afternoon and evening across the southern and central waters as gradients tightening in response to a low pressure area passing to the north and the attendant cold front approaching the area. The trailing cold front briefly push into the northern waters but guidance is not in best agreement whether this will happen. Another front may push into the area sometime Friday or Friday night but models are not in good agreement with this system either. Seas expected around 5-7 ft northern/central waters and 2-4 ft southern waters Tuesday evening, which is expected to subside to 2-5 ft late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, highest north. Seas briefly build to 4-6 ft across the southern and central waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night in response to stronger SW flow. Seas currently progged to be around 2-4 ft on Thursday and 2-3 ft Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ130-131-135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...JBM/SK MARINE...RF/JBM/SK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
148 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. A low pressure trough sweeping east through Canada was producing an enhanced westerly flow aloft across SE Idaho this afternoon with advisory level winds across the INL and lake wind speeds across the American Falls Reservoir. The trough works east of the area overnight supporting a dry northwest flow aloft and decoupling winds around sunset. As winds decrease, we should see overnight lows drop toward freezing in the Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley and thus we will continue the Frost advisories in those valley zones Tuesday morning. For Tuesday and Wednesday, a modest short-wave ridge and warmer temperatures transition east through the region ahead of another approaching Pacific trough. The models suggest that the trough will shift east through Canada Thursday very much like the current disturbance resulting in breezy and cooler conditions (5-10 degrees of cooling). We might also see a slight chance of showers up along the Montana border. Huston .LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Monday night. Long wave pattern is non-existent/featureless for southern Idaho southward to the border, except for one period: On Fri/Fri Night, an upper level trough moves into the Great Basin. The rest of the time, the main energy is very far to the north, in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. This leaves the forecast area at risk of diurnally-driven thunderstorm and shower activity, as any kind of humid unstable air can move this far north. However would expect PoPs to be low. For the upper level low evidenced in the long wave pattern on Fri/Fri Night The GFS this morning had borderline likely PoPs for Pocatello-- but on Sun, and solid likely PoPs for Rexburg and Idaho Falls (for Sat and Sun). Diminishing precipitation threat for Mon. Thus will increase substantially the PoP for Sat and Sun afternoons/eves. Messick && .AVIATION...Whatever clouds are left over from the low that moved through on Sunday should be gone by this evening, with most of airdromes showing unlimited CIG by this afternoon. The main forecast problem today is wind. Fortunately for the valley airports it should be aligned with the major runway. Biggest problems will be with KSUN and the uncertainty of westerly wind getting down into the Wood River Valley, and similar dilemma with KDIJ in the Teton Valley. KDIJ appears as though it could be very windy there (25G35KT) in a downslope situation off of the west side mountains. Expecting gap wind at KSUN, but would not be surprised if the wind just goes light and variable at the surface, with some strong low-level wind shear. Since the NAM and HRRR guidance wants to bring the strong west- southwesterly wind to the surface, have done that--for now. Pushed back the onset of gusty wind for the valley airdromes. KSUN and KDIJ expected to start being gusty by 11/18Z. The wind should not make such a strong return on Tue, and skies should be SKC with unlimited VSBY. Messick && .FIRE WEATHER...The second of two disturbances will cross northern Idaho today. Isolated rain showers will occur this morning mainly north of Challis and Monida Pass. By early afternoon, most of the moisture and any showers will be moving quickly into Montana. Windy conditions are expected again today in the Upper Snake Plain, and rather "breezy" conditions in the Lower Snake Plain. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Arco Desert area 1000 to 1900 hours. Tuesday will be sunny and dry, with temperatures continuing to rebound off the cold temperatures of Sunday. Most valley areas will be solidly in the 70s, and a few 80F values observed in the Raft River area. Afternoon humidity around Craters of the Moon and Challis are expected to dip into the lower and middle teens. Models still favor tracking our next disturbance across Washington and the north half of Idaho late Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front should cross the Salmon-Challis NF Wednesday night with a chance of showers, while the Snake Plain should see a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday, along with another windy day from Shoshone to Dubois. Friday and Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler with scattered showers under a much broader low pressure disturbance. RS && .HYDROLOGY...Due to the cooler weather, most river levels were steady or falling. Little change is expected over the next day or so as temperatures gradually warm through mid-week. Advisories continue for Antelope Creek and the Big Wood at Hailey. The warning for the Snake River near Menan has been replaced by an advisory as releases from Palisades have been curtailed. Huston && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ017-020-021. Lake Wind Advisory continues through 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ021. Wind Advisory continues through 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ020. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 ...Strong to severe storms possible across the Southeast Plains tomorrow afternoon... Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating weak westerly flow aloft across the area, with faster zonal flow aloft across the Northern Tier and upper level high pressure in place across the Southern Rockies through the Southern High Plains. Current satellite data also indicating mainly clear skies across the area, with smoke from the 416 Wildfire in southwest Colorado evident and starting to spread to the east within the westerly flow aloft. At the surface, breezy east to southeast winds 15 to 25 mph have developed across the Plains this afternoon, behind last night`s passing backdoor cold front, with current temperatures some 10-15F cooler than this time yesterday across Eastern Colorado, mainly in the 70s and 80s. Further west, temperatures fairly similar to yesterday in the 60s to 80s at this time. Tonight and tomorrow...No big changes to current forecast as generally weak westerly flow aloft will continue as across the region, with a slight increase in the flow aloft expected through the day tomorrow, as a minor embedded wave looks to translate east across the Northern Tier. For tonight, with the smoke plume evident in satellite imagery and HRRR smoke plume forecast, have kept the mention of smoke across the Southwest Mts through the southern portions of the San Luis Valley into early tomorrow morning. Will keep smoke out of the forecast further east, as plume should continue to thin out and disperse, however, can`t rule out some hazy conditions across southern portions of the Eastern Plains into tomorrow morning. Should see winds diminishing through the evening, leading to overnight lows around seasonal levels in the 40s and 50s areawide. On Tuesday, low level moisture increases within the persistent low level easterly upslope flow across Eastern Colorado, which will lead to better chances of convection through the late afternoon across the Plains. Models hinting at the Palmer DVD and Raton Mesa for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon, which is juxtaposed with the upslope flow. If storms can form and push east into better low level moisture and instability (capes of 1500-2500 j/kg), there will be enough shear with the westerly flow aloft to support more organized convection and the potential for severe storms, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts across the Southeast Plains. Current SPC Day2 outlook has a marginal risk of severe storms across the I-25 Corridor with a slight risk east of the Corridor to the Kansas border, which still looks good. Further west, dry conditions to persist, though can`t totally rule out isolated diurnal high based convection across the higher terrain. Temperatures tomorrow look to be at to slightly warmer than today, mainly in the 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 60s and 70s and the higher terrain. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 339 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Primary longer term meteorological concerns include temperatures, elevated near critical to critical fire weather conditions at times and pops. Recent longer term PV/Precipitable water analysis, computer simulations and forecast model soundings parameters suggest that thunderstorms, some strong to potentially severe(favoring eastern locations) will be possible from Tuesday evening into Tuesday night and have inserted severe wording into grids/zones over favored locations during this time-frame. Zonal to southwesterly upper flow over the forecast district is expected to produce above seasonal temperatures in combination with isolated to low-grade scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday with scattered pops then anticipated over western portions of the CWA Friday. In addition, localized/elevated fire weather concerns will be possible at times from Wednesday into Friday. Then, the potential exists that a more active/moist pattern may develop over the forecast district from this weekend into next week as south-southwesterly flow draws up remnant moisture from Hurricane Bud(which is currently approximately 450 miles to the south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas). Also, additional deep atmospheric moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has the potential of impacting the forecast district with increased pops(including the potential for locally heavy rainfall at times next week). As always, WFO Pueblo will closely monitor latest systems/trends and adjust forecasts as needed. Finally, above seasonal mid-June maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated over the majority of the forecast district into this weekend, with maximum temperatures expected to decrease by several degrees from later this weekend into next week as deeper atmospheric moisture arrives. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 339 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018 VFR conditions are expected at COS and PUB over the next 24 hours. Breezy east to southeast winds 15-20kts are expected at COS and PUB through the afternoon, as low level upslope flow continues behind this mornings dry cold front. A more diurnal wind regime is expect tonight and tomorrow, with possible late after convection across the higher terrain. Can`t rule out a late afternoon thunderstorm at COS, though will not carry in the TAF at this time. Storms that develop and can push east across the Southeast Plains could become severe late tomorrow afternoon and evening. VFR conditions with a diurnal wind regime can also expected at ALS through the period. However, some lowered visibility in haze and smoke from SW CO wildfires can not be ruled out. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1012 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions expected through mid week. Front late Wednesday may reduce rain chances for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1010 PM Monday... Will tweak the pops and sky cover a bit overnight to better represent current trends. As of 605 PM Monday... Will update pops to adjust for current radar and HRRR trends for late this afternoon and early this evening. As of 105 PM Monday... Latest surface map shows a stationary front was located across portions of southeast Ohio and the northern counties of West Virginia. This boundary and a mid-level disturbance was resulting in widespread showers across much of the region. Have not seen much in the way of thunderstorms. However, still can not rule one or two out until around sunset. Some areas across our northern counties have seen rainfall amounts around or in excess of an inch. The showers should be exiting the areas where the heavier rain fell and do not expect to see any water issues. Areas farther south could still see some heavier rain amounts this afternoon as PWAT values are still quite high. Will have to continue to watch rainfall amounts. However, do not expect any water issues at this time. The boundary is forecast to push south tonight with drier air filtering in from the northeast. Northern portions of the area should be dry with some showers possible across the south. The front will begin to return back north as a warm front on Tuesday with precipitation chances increasing from the southwest. Models suggest thunderstorms will be possible and have continued mention of storms in the forecast. Clouds and precipitation have acted to keep temperatures cooler than expected today. MAV guidance is warmer for highs on Tuesday than MET guidance. Believe there will be enough breaks in the clouds for temperature to warm to near MAV numbers. In addition, a blend of temperature guidance shows values close to the MAV and will generally be followed. Also used a blend of guidance for lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Monday... Shower and thunderstorms chances remain high through Wednesday evening as a frontal boundary works slowly across the region. PWATS remain elevated so some localized flooding will be a possibility due to the repeating rounds of showers and storms that are expected. Temperatures are tricky due to cloud cover and rain potential so stuck with the blended model guidance which offers lows in the 60s and highs in the muggy 80s for most locations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM Monday... Cold front sinks south of our region on Thursday...but just barely. Behind this front, models indicate that a drier airmass will advect into much of the area with dewpoints falling into the 50s and low 60s by late Thursday into Thursday night. This should quell our shower/storm chances for a time, but the airmass slowly modifies as we go into the weekend bringing a renewed threat for precip. The blended model guidance PoPs were fairly high considering the strength of the ridge building overhead and low initial dewpoints. So, pared PoPs back some and made them more diurnal in nature and focused on the higher terrain Friday and Saturday afternoon before smearing them out over the entire CWA Sunday into Monday. A complicating factor is MCS potential with the area remaining in northwest flow through the weekend and on Monday as the ridge builds in but predictability is too low to factor that in right now. There will be no big change in temps behind the front, except for lows Thursday night which should take advantage of the lower dewpoints to fall into the comfortable 50s to low 60s. The mercury will then inch upwards through Monday as the ridge builds in. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 605 PM Monday... A frontal boundary will linger across the area overnight, then push back northward on Tuesday. This will allow for some restrictions in showers and thunderstorms at times. Tonight is a tough forecast regarding fog. Some areas got an abundance of rain, but there will be some flow overnight. Confidence in whether fog will form or not is low. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions in showers and thunderstorm could vary. Fog may or may not form overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/12/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M L M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M M L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M L M M M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in scattered storms Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/JSH NEAR TERM...JSH/RPY SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...RPY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
819 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 752 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Convection has begun to backbuild to the southwest along the cold front near the KS/NE state line. MLCAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg per the TOP 00z sounding still supports the potential for large hail over the next few hours. Rapidly developing updrafts within the extreme instability has caused enhanced stretching of the pre- existing vorticity along the cold front/cold pool, which has resulted in a few tornadoes in southeast NE. Recent short-term model guidance is trending towards an increase in the effective SRH with values reaching 200-300 m2/s2 as the low-level jet strengthens. This environmental SRH along with the baroclinic generated vorticity associated with the leading of the gust front fosters the threat for tornadoes to continue through the late evening. The latest analysis also shows DCAPE of 1500 J/kg ahead of the mesoscale convective complex that could favor damaging wind gusts through the early morning. Also, the warm moist air mass in place may prohibit rapid cooling of the boundary layer, which could limit the strength of the nocturnal inversion increasing the likelihood of severe wind gusts to reach the surface. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 A surface boundary was noted across central Kansas this afternoon with temperatures soaring into the upper 90s ahead of this feature. With dewpoints in the lower 70s and steep mid-level lapse rates, vast instability has overspread northeast Kansas with CAPE over 4000 J/kg. The front is expected to progress eastward this evening with thunderstorms initiating in Nebraska, building down into the CWA. With initial storms forming along the boundary, helicity values indicate a tornado will be possible although the better chances look to be north of the area in Nebraska. The main hazards with storms this evening may be strong winds and hail as storms begin to cluster and become cold pool driven. Storm motion will be on the slower side and with PWAT values above average (2 to 2.5 inches) ahead of the boundary, heavy rainfall may be another concern as storms form parallel to the boundary. Even with the potential for some training storms, flooding should remain isolated as the front steady progresses southeast. CAMs have been in decent agreement with initial storms forming near the Kansas/Nebraska boarder and moving southeast across the entire area. The bulk of precipitation is expected to be south of the area after roughly 2AM this morning, with the HRRR indicating the potential for some lingering showers and storms in east central Kansas through the early morning. Not too much relief in the form of temperatures Tuesday after this frontal passage with highs tomorrow in the upper 80s and low 90s. Dewpoints may be slightly cooler and heat indicies will stay below 100 degrees. Dry conditions are forecast through the afternoon as high pressure noses in from the north (centered over South Dakota). .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, elevated thunderstorms are possible. Models show upslope flow into the central high plains which could favor convective development west of the area. Then by Tuesday evening, models expect an 850MB front to be east to west across the forecast area with the low level jet providing convergence along the boundary. The better moisture and instability is expected to be mainly across southern KS, but storms could impact areas along and south of Interstate 70 where the 850MB boundary is progged to be. Another round of elevated storms is possible Wednesday night as models develop return flow with the low level jet nosing into northeast KS. By Thursday afternoon, mid level heights are expected to rise as models develop ridging over the central plains. This ridging is expected to persist through the weekend with little to no dynamic forcing affecting the forecast area. So hot and dry weather is forecast for Thursday through Sunday with lows in the 70s and highs in the mid to upper 90s. There is heat concerns for this time period as there could be a string of days with heat indices approaching 105 degrees. There are signs of a frontal system moving into the plains Sunday night or Monday. Because of this there are some low end POPs Sunday night and Monday. However confidence in this frontal timing is low as the ECMWF wants to maintain the upper ridge over eastern KS. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Will maintain a watch for convective trends this evening as cells develop along a frontal boundary. Additional storms may move south out of Nebraska. Current thinking is for TSRA near MHK by 02Z and at TOP and FOE around 03Z. Short term models suggest that the storms may move south of the terminals by 06Z. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the frontal boundary. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE...Sanders SHORT TERM...Heller LONG TERM...Wolters AVIATION...53