Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/08/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
947 PM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build across the region from the Great Lakes, providing generally fair and seasonably warm conditions through early Saturday. A weak cold front could bring an isolated shower Friday, but most areas should remain dry. Some showers will be possible across extreme southern areas late Saturday, as a low pressure system moves through the mid Atlantic region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A weak upper short wave is exiting but there is some persistent cloud cover in northern areas into southern VT. The clouds are eroding from west to east but there is other cloud cover and some sprinkles just north of the U.S./Canadian border that will possibly brush through the southern Adirondacks after midnight. Clouds will dissipate through the rest of the night in eastern NY and southern VT. Light south winds could persist in the Hudson Valley tonight ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the Great Lakes but many areas will trend to calm. So, temperatures may be a degree or two warmer in the Hudson Valley than other places. Some patchy fog is possible later, especially near rivers, lakes and swamps. Just minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover through tonight. Previous AFD has a few more details and is below... As subsidence in the wake of this wave spreads east, expect a clearing trend to develop through sunset for most areas outside far northern Herkimer/Hamilton Counties. Clear to partly cloudy skies will likely continue in these areas through a good portion of tonight. However, across northern areas, periods of clouds will likely increase, as a weak cold front/surface trough approaches from the north. Some CAMs and the HRRR suggest isolated showers/sprinkles develop across the far southwest Adirondacks, and will therefore include some slight chc PoPs in these areas. With at least a portion of the overnight remaining mainly clear, along with relatively light to calm wind, temperatures should cool off into the lower/mid 50s in many areas, with some mid/upper 40s possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks. In addition, patchy fog will likely form as well given current dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s, with lows expected to fall to at least these levels before daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday, the aforementioned weak cold front will have little moisture/dynamics to work with. However, there could be just enough low level moisture pooling across the upper Hudson Valley to trigger an isolated shower or two, as noted in some of the CAMs. Will therefore add a small area from the upper Hudson Valley into the Capital Region and northern Taconics for isolated showers, mainly from mid morning through early afternoon. Otherwise, some clouds in the morning should begin to clear out later in the day, especially across northern areas. With a little more sun than today, and slightly deeper mixing potential, expect afternoon highs to reach 75-80 in most valley areas, with upper 60s to lower/mid 70s for higher terrain. Friday night-Saturday night, a wave of low pressure will track east through the Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic states Friday night through Saturday evening. It appears that the main forcing/moisture and low level baroclinicity should remain south of the region. However, some showers could brush portions of the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County CT during Saturday. There will also be yet another reinforcing cold front setting southward during Saturday. There should be enough dry air ahead of the front to limit any chances for showers, but will still need to watch trends in case low level moisture is greater and any isolated showers develop. Lows Friday night and Saturday night ranging from the mid/upper 40s across the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region, to the lower/mid 50s elsewhere. Highs Saturday mainly in the mid/upper 70s in valley areas, and upper 60s to lower 70s for higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Northwest upper flow over the region Sunday and Monday as mean upper trough axis in eastern Canada keeps our region dry with temperature near or just below normal. Flat upper ridging builds into our region from the west Tuesday through Thursday as another broad upper trough in central Canada slowly builds east. There could be quite considerable upper dynamics within the southern periphery of the broad mean upper troughing due to a large broad upper closed low in central Canada. There is an increasing consensus in sources of guidance/ensembles for quite the gradient in heights between upper ridging offshore the SE U.S. and the broad upper closed low in central Canada. Since the broad upper trough axis looks to remain west of our region through at least Wednesday, gradual warming should occur Sunday through Thursday. By Wednesday and Thursday, there could be some semblance of a prefrontal surface trough along a leading edge of deeper low level moisture with low level and boundary layer temperatures also warming. The associated instability and low level convergence should support scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs well into the 70s Sunday and Monday with upper 60s to around 70 northern areas. Highs Tuesday through Thursday in the upper 70s to lower 80s but lower 70s higher terrain. Temperatures cold be potentially warmer Tuesday through Thursday depending on how amplified the upper ridging is off the SE U.S. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clouds around KGFL are well above 3000 feet and will exit through this evening. Just a few clouds to SKC everywhere else through tonight with light winds. The mostly clear to clear sky amd light winds could support some fog, with the best chances of MVFR bordering on IFR fog at KGFL and KPSF. Including MVFR fog at KPOU but BCFG at KALB until near term trends in fog development can be evaluated. After 12Z any fog will be gone and just scattered clouds are expected the rest of the day Friday. Light south to southwest winds at 6 Kt or less this evening will become nearly calm. Winds become northwest to northeast at less than 10 Kt Friday morning and continue through Friday afternoon. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Surface high pressure will build across the region from the Great Lakes, providing generally fair and seasonably warm conditions through early Saturday. A weak cold front could bring an isolated shower Friday, but most areas should remain dry. Some showers will be possible across extreme southern areas late Saturday, as a low pressure system moves through the mid Atlantic region. Minimum relative humidity values will increase to between 90 and 100 percent tonight, with areas of dew formation likely. RH values will decrease to minimum values of 35 to 50 percent Friday afternoon, lowest across the southwest Adirondacks and southeast VT. Winds today will become light/variable tonight (less than 5 mph), then become west to northwest at 5-15 mph Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday night, other than an isolated shower in some spots Friday. A few showers will be possible across southern areas Saturday afternoon and evening, although it is possible that these showers remain south of the region. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected into at least early next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV NEAR TERM...KL/NAS SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .UPDATE... Storms that blew up along outflow collision are not likely to remain in tact as shown by HRRR as they are moving into moisture divergent region (as shown by MSAS). This seems to be causing rapid weakening. That said, did update to increase POPs out ahead of the weakening line based on trends. It is not completely out of possibility that some remnant of this line or the assoc outflow generates some precip as far SE as AMA, but not very confident this will happen. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ UPDATE... Seeing a few weak showers and storms along and just behind outflow boundary moving WNW across the area. These are not making much progression east in stable air before diminishing, but included low pop to account for this and also added a low pop in the NW in case the storm in NM decided to move east across the border. Otherwise lowered or removed POPs in much of the area the TSTM watch was in due to sfc divergence and stable airmass in wake of the outflow. Canceled the watch as well. Aviation... Generally no concerns overnight as low level airmass remains relatively dry. Will have to watch progression of a strong storm in NM for possible influence on GUY or more likely DHT but it is not clear it will hold together long enough to approach either site. TSTMs will develop a little further west tomorrow and they could be a concern in late afternoon and evening near the TAF locations (esp AMA) but with ISOLD coverage, will not show any mention in the TAFs attm. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ DISCUSSION... The dirty upper ridge will remain overhead for this entire forecast. Its strength from day to day and varying low level moisture quality will modulate afternoon convection. There will be more convection some days than others, but no day in the next 7 really jumps off the page storm or severe-wise. Friday...The models can`t agree on low level moisture tomorrow. If the NAM is right, there will certainly be a decent chance for storms in the south central part of the CWA, pending the evolution of possible overnight convection tonight. Leaned toward the NAM and increased PoPs tomorrow afternoon for parts of the area. Saturday through Wednesday...Synoptically, a substantial Gulf of Alaska low analyzed on water vapor will meander southeast and act to slightly flatten the seemingly ever-present southern Great Plains upr ridge late this weekend. H5 heights will fall from 590dm on what should be a dry Saturday down to around 585dm Sunday. This grazing blow of the strong trough axis would on most days be enough to kick off scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms Sunday. However, in true Panhandles fashion, it looks like we`ll get one part of the equation but not the other as moisture quality looks feeble. In the wake of the departing nrn Plains upr trough, a "cold" front may push into the area before washing out on Monday but this front will be of little impact. The upper ridge then likely re-cements itself from Tuesday through mid next week. There will be periods of time the next 7 days where convective rounds somewhere else will affect our afternoon and we`ll have a bit more convection. If anyone says they can tell you when and where this might happen 5 days out they are lying to you. Temperatures will remain well above normal, but still within seasonal expectations because in meteorology school they taught me that summer is the season for hot temps. Simpson && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 88/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1002 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 In coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, we have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Converse and Niobrara Counties. Left in some mention of showers and thunderstorms across our far eastern Nebraska counties through midnight, otherwise dry for the remainder of the night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 Round two of severe thunderstorms looks to be on track this afternoon through mid evening. Current SPC mesoanalysis showing 3000-3500 J/KG surface based CAPE with lower level CIN just about gone across the Panhandle at 1PM. Dewpoints quite high across the area, with Scottsbluff, Alliance reporting 61 at 1PM and upper 50s up to the Torrington and Douglas. Visible imagery showing CU beginning to develop over the Laramie Range with radar really not showing any echoes just yet. Using the latest HRRR simulated radar for this afternoon`s forecast. Storms move off the northern Laramie Range and track out into Converse, northern Platte and Goshen Counties by 3PM. This area (along and north of a line from Douglas to Torrington to maybe Scottsbluff looks to be the best area for severe thunderstorms today. Have the frontal boundary in this area that could be the focusing mechanism for storms as well. Pretty good low level convergence along this front. South of this front, down here in Laramie County, dewpoints much drier than to our north, so Laramie County may not see much in the way of storms. Another Slight Risk area for Friday afternoon as lower level moisture remains over the northern Panhandle. Front finally gets forced to the northeast Friday evening with much drier air moving into the Panhandle. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 Models showing fairly dry conditions across the CWA Sunday through Weds with a surface trough moving eat of the CWA Sunday. A cold front then passes across Sunday night as an upper trough moves across the northern Rockys into the northern plains. Westerly flow will continue across the area through Weds with a surface high moving across the region, keeping better moisture suppressed to the south. Seasonal temperatures Monday through Weds. Moisture begins to nudge up Thursday so a slow increase in pcpn chances possible then. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1000 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 Wyoming TAFS...VFR. Wind gusts to 23 knots after 15Z Friday. Nebraska TAFS...VFR. Wind gusts to 20 knots at Sidney after 19Z Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 Very dry conditions continue west of the Laramie Range this afternoon with single digit humidity being reported. Poor humidity recovery overnight for much of Carbon and Albany Counties. This trend of above normal temperatures and dry weather looks to continue through most of next week. East of the Laramie Range, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday before drier air moves into the area. This dry pattern to continue through Thursday next week before conditions turn wetter next Friday. Fortunately, fuels are still green, but could dry out fairly quickly over the next week with the low humidity, lack of moisture and above normal temperatures. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...RUBIN SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
553 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 High temperatures will swell back up into the low to upper 90s northeast to southwest through the CWA. Upper level ridging is set in place over the western high plains with surface high pressure built in from the northeast. South to southeast winds expected in the 15-20 mph range this afternoon due to good mixing to the surface and day time max heating with a moderate temperature gradient across the region. These will weaken to less than 10 mph after sunset and over night due to nocturnal cooling and a temperature inversion setting up in the lower boundary level. Afternoon thunderstorm chances look to be minimal late this afternoon and evening with much of the severe weather activity down to the south in the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. Some storms may invade the CWA along the Oklahoma border this evening from west to east from Elkhart through Liberal and points eastward as the night progresses. Any of these storms along the southern periphery of the CWA will push out or diminish by midnight. A few thunderstorms could make there way into the northwestern counties after midnight pushing in from northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. Confidence is low for these after midnight with no agreement with the models and the HRRR over doing the storm development as it did for yesterday`s events. This will be monitored as the day progresses. The CWA will be over a marginal area according to SPC and any storm development has the potential of hail up to 2 inches in diameter and up to 60 mph wind gusts. The instability, as stated before, should stay south of the area where the ample low level moisture and a weak surface low near Amarillo will spark off the potential for surface based storm development. Clearing skies in this area and points along the Kansas and Oklahoma border will allow for the strongest day time heating pushing CAPE values around 2000J/kg giving the potential for severe storms along this line this evening. The dryline set up for this time frame looks to push not that far into southwestern Kansas, hence keeping most of the severe activity along the Oklahoma border and south and southeastward. Over night will see continued clearing of the skies and any high clouds with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Another humid start to Friday with dew points in the 60s and light southeasterly winds, giving way to the potential for isolated areas of fog development in the heaviest rainfalls for the southeastward counties of the CWA. This will quickly burn off by mid morning due to day time heating and good mixing of the boundary layer winds to the surface eroding the temperature inversion. Winds will have a more westerly component to the southerly flow due to a weak leeside trough developing over eastward Colorado. This will bring in a stronger downsloping warm wind allowing for afternoon high temperatures to be in the mid to upper 90s and close to 100 for the southwest counties along the Oklahoma border. Severe weather development Friday afternoon will be marginal due to strong day time heating creating sufficient instability along the dryline for southwestern counties ahead of the aforementioned leeside trough. Shear values look to be minimal and an isolated pulse thunderstorm event at best is expected with possible large hail and damaging winds. Any storms that develop will be west of Hwy 83 and south of Hwy 400, weakening by sunset losing any instability due to cooling. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 Upper level ridging will continue to be set in place over the eastern Rockies and western high plains giving way to warmer temperatures and minimal precipitation chances through the weekend. Morning low temperatures will be around 70 for the entire CWA with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s with some locations near the Oklahoma border breaking the 100 degree mark. Winds with be out of the 10-15mph through the weekend increasing up to 25mph gusts for Sunday afternoon due to an approaching frontal boundary that will push through on Monday tightening the pressure gradient across western Kansas. The only precipitation chance will be late Friday afternoon and into the evening time frame along the Oklahoma border and into south central Kansas due to the dryline and sufficient low level moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Instability will be present with good warming but the shear and lapse rates look to be minimal, with more of a greater chance for severe thunderstorm development to be more into central Oklahoma and into north Texas. Monday will start the week off with a shift of winds out of the north due to a passing cold front as stated above. Winds will initially gust up to 25-30mph behind the frontal passage but diminish through the day as the gradient weakens behind it and high pressure builds in from the northwest due to increased convergence in the upper levels. Afternoon high temperatures will only be in the upper 80s to low 90s through Wednesday due to the northwest flow aloft until the upper level trough pushes across the state and to the east. Ridging will set back into place by Thursday with afternoon highs pushing back into the mid 90s. Precipitation chances will be minimal with the aforementioned frontal boundary due to the northwest dry flow but increased chances return Tuesday through Thursday each afternoon and evening due to a series of shortwave troughs pushing across the CWA with return to southwest flow aloft and ridging over the western high plains. Severe threat is minimal at this point a week almost out, but the possibility will be there with a southeast low level moisture flow and greater instability with a warming trend in store after frontal passage. Any precipitation chances, although minimal, will be beneficial heading into the warmer and dryer months of summer in the weeks ahead. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 VFR condtisionw will prevail with some upper level cloudiness. Winds will generally be from the southeast at less than 12 knots overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 67 96 68 99 / 20 10 10 0 GCK 65 97 66 99 / 10 0 10 10 EHA 64 98 67 98 / 20 20 10 10 LBL 66 99 68 100 / 20 20 10 10 HYS 68 94 67 96 / 20 0 10 0 P28 70 96 70 98 / 20 10 20 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lowe LONG TERM...Lowe AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
910 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .UPDATE... A strong convective complex over North Texas is progged to remain north of the region overnight and will continue to monitor for any progress to the south tonight. HRRR initialized well and it keeps the system well to the north. Quite a bit of cirrus from the N TX convection will move this way overnight and this should limit the fog threat and may help to keep temperatures a little bit warmer. Another warm and humid day is expected on Friday with an isolated shower or storm possible late in the day. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the overnight hours and into the morning across most terminals. CLL is the most likely TAF site which could see ceilings fall to MVFR conditions for a few hours in the early morning hours before rising back to VFR shortly after sunrise. Winds out of the southeast will turn slightly more southerly by late morning tomorrow, before again turning more out of the southeast by the afternoon and increasing to 7-13 kts. Not carrying precipitation at any of the sites tomorrow, though some short-term model guidance has hinted at the potential for showers to develop mainly west of LBX and SGR by late morning. Hathaway PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ DISCUSSION... Fair weather cumulus have developed across the region today with isolated showers along the coastal counties and in the offshore waters. An outflow boundary from overnight convection north of the area passed over the region this morning, keeping the atmosphere well-capped and stable. Patchy fog may develop over inland areas tonight as winds calm and temperatures cool down to the low to mid 70s. Northwest flow aloft will continue to keep temperatures above average in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the mid 70s. Over the next week, the upper-level ridge remains dominant over our weather in SE Texas. This weekend will mark the return of the typical summertime isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, primarily along the coast. Unfortunately, there is no end to this above average heat in sight. 22 MARINE... Onshore flow will remain the norm through the period. Winds increasing over the Gulf waters late Saturday and Sunday and may flirt with SCEC conditions (15-20kt) especially late Sunday. Diurnal pattern of weaker winds in the afternoon and a little stronger after 8 pm through 6 am should continue through at least Monday. Showers becoming more widely scattered Sunday. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 94 73 94 74 / 0 10 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 74 94 75 93 75 / 0 10 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 80 87 81 / 0 10 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 PM PDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures are expected through Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A big change will arrive Friday night and bring much cooler temperatures, widespread rain showers, breezy conditions and possible thunderstorms through the weekend. A drying and warming trend will arrive with the new work week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Friday: A large closed low off the central BC coast is resulting in broad southwest flow aloft over the region. For most of the region mild and dry conditions will continue into Friday ahead of an advancing cold front with two exceptions. First is over the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie this evening where a mid level wave will combine with an unstable atmosphere promoting a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a slight chance as far north as the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. As of 1 pm analysis data showed surfaced based CAPE of 500-1000 J/KG over the Blue Mtns/Camas Prairie with values of 1000-2000 J/KG south of here over extreme NE Oregon. HRRR continue to show thunderstorms clipping the Blues/Camas Prairie this evening mainly prior to sunset before the lower atmosphere begins to stabilize. Second exception is Friday afternoon in the Cascades where a chance of rain showers is forecast with the approaching cold front. JW Friday night through Sunday...Models continue to be in good agreement and consistent from multiple previous runs in bringing a stark change to the region Friday night through the weekend. The cold and broad upper level low clearly depicted in the Pacific satellite loop circulating over the Gulf of Alaska will send it`s initial cold front into the forecast area Friday night. This will be a slow moving meridional front and will have plenty of deep moisture to work with. While there may be a few elevated thunderstorms ahead of the front over the Palouse and Idaho Panhandle Friday evening...the main precipitation will occur as a dense mass of showers and light rain immediately ahead of and along the front...the actual frontal surface crossing the Cascades Friday evening and exiting into Montana Saturday afternoon. It is likely that most locations including the normally drier deep basin will receive a quarter to a third of an inch of rain as this frontal system passes during the 18 hour period Friday evening through Saturday afternoon with higher amounts in the mountains. The thunder threat does not look impressive on Saturday...just a showery...breezy and gray day for most locations with daytime highs down 10 to 15 degrees from Friday`s highs. The tightening gradient and cold advection behind the surface front will also promote breezy and gusty conditions Friday evening through the Cascade gaps and into the deep basin with gusts up to 30 mph or so west of Moses lake. On Sunday the region will be in the post-frontal air mass. While the center of the now ejecting low will be north of the region...a well pronounced spur trough with a cold pool aloft will rotate through the forecast area. This will promote widespread instability by afternoon especially if sunbreaks occur...which is possible since the main frontal band will be moving off to the east by this time. The character of precipitation will become more convective and hit-and-miss but none the less quite widespread. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will be concentrated east of a line from Omak to Walla Walla...but just about anywhere in the forecast area may experience at least a brief shower on Sunday. Temperatures will be cool and spring-like with many locations outside of the deep basin struggling to achieve 60 degrees. Monday through Thursday...Improving conditions will arrive just in time to return to work as the offending upper low moves off to the east and drier northwest flow aloft begins over the region. The usual rain shadow will take hold in the deep basin Sunday night with drying spreading eastward on Monday. Lingering showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms will still be present in the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle due to orographic forcing...and the high temperatures will still run well below normal. All the models are in decent agreement in depicting the building and passage of a follow on upper level ridge Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions and slowly recovering temperatures. Monday morning and again on Tuesday morning...depending on how much clearing takes place allowing radiational overnight cooling...pockets of frost in protected valleys may be a concern. Otherwise plenty of sunshine is expected and temperatures will further warm back up to seasonably normal by Wednesday afternoon. Model agreement is a bit looser beyond Wednesday...but the latest GFS and ECMWF both bring another tight and transient upper level low into or on the doorstep of the region on Thursday. It is too early to nail down the timing of any precipitation threat from this next low...but confidence is increasing of another deterioration in the weather after mid-week. /Fugazzi && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: The forecast area will reside in persistent southwest flow aloft ahead of an incoming trough. For most of the region just mid and high clouds are expected. Exception could be the Lewiston area. Stronger, more organized t-storms will be possible around Lewiston thru 06Z. These storms are expected to weaken upon coming off the higher terrain toward KLWS but this will need to be monitored closely with the potential for gusty winds and lightning to impact Lewiston AP. Have kept VCSH thru 06Z, but will continue to monitor to see if thunder needs to be added. Sprinkles will be possible for KPUW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 54 75 52 59 44 59 / 0 0 70 90 40 40 Coeur d`Alene 53 75 51 58 44 58 / 10 0 70 80 50 60 Pullman 53 74 51 56 43 57 / 10 0 70 60 60 40 Lewiston 58 80 56 62 47 63 / 20 0 60 60 60 40 Colville 52 77 52 63 45 62 / 10 0 70 80 40 60 Sandpoint 52 74 51 59 43 55 / 0 0 70 80 50 70 Kellogg 52 74 51 58 39 53 / 10 0 60 60 70 70 Moses Lake 54 79 53 68 48 68 / 0 0 70 30 10 10 Wenatchee 57 75 54 67 49 65 / 0 0 70 20 10 10 Omak 55 77 54 67 46 66 / 0 0 80 50 30 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .Currently...moisture has been slower to mix out on the plains today. Convection tried to fire over the southeast mountains, but moisture was too shallow and air aloft was too dry to support deeper convection. Some weak storms are over Teller County and along the Raton Ridge. .Tonight...Fine resolution models continue to show some weak storms moving eastward along the Palmer Divide and along the New Mexico border during the evening. ESRL experimental HRRR hints at strong storms over Kiowa County later in the evening. This is plausible as moisture has been slow to mix out on the plains and southeast winds will continue into the evening. Deeper cloud have limited heating over Baca County which should limit instability in the southeast corner of the state. Any storms should move into Kansas by midnight. Do not see a large MCS developing, like what developed last night, to provide a strong westward push to the low level moisture. .Friday...Dry southwest flow aloft continues. Low levels on the plains will be drier than Thursday. Winds will stay below red flag criteria, but humidities will mostly be below 15 percent. There may be enough low level moisture for some isolated stronger storms near the Kansas border, and SPC has marginal risk for the Kansas border region. Suspect main threats will be gusty winds with drier lower levels. A stray storm could develop over the eastern mountains, but moisture will be limited. --PGW--- .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 Chief longer term meteorological issues continue to be temperatures, near critical to critical fire weather conditions at times and pops. Latest longer term PV/Precipitable water analysis, forecast model soundings and computer simulations suggest that upper ridging will remain anchored centered over/near New Mexico/west Texas during the balance of the longer term with increasing precipitation potential beginning Tuesday and continuing into next week as deeper atmospheric moisture returns/develops over the majority of the CWA. From Friday evening into Monday, unseasonably warm temperatures in combination with generally dry conditions(outside of isolated thunderstorms) are are anticipated over the forecast district in advance of the potential for cooler temperatures as well as increased pops beginning Tuesday. Gradient winds are still projected to increase from Sunday into Monday evening, which will increase the fire weather threat Sunday. In addition, elevated/localized fire weather conditions will also be possible Saturday and Monday. Finally, above to well-above seasonal early to mid-June temperatures(as evidenced by predicted maximum temperatures climbing into the 90s and even challenging the century mark at times over select eastern locations) are expected to continue over southern Colorado into Monday, in advance of somewhat cooler temperatures developing by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018 VFR at all TAF sites. Isolated storms north of KCOS could brief produce gusty outflow winds at KCOS. Chances for thunder and wind gusts are too low to insert into TAF. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
905 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .UPDATE... Convection has all but dissipated across NE TX this evening as was expected. For the next couple hours, have kept slight chance and low end chance pops going across NE TX just north of the I-20 Corridor to account for showers falling out of AC deck but this activity should be all but gone by midnight. The worked over airmass has cooled temperatures quite a bit and thus had to make major changes to the hourly diurnal temperature grids but where it has rained, should not see much more of a fall in temperatures overnight. Elsewhere, had to beef up the sky grids to account for the debris cloud cover present across our western half. Otherwise, the forecast across our eastern zones is in pretty good shape so no more changes are necessary this evening. Updated zone package out shortly...13. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ AVIATION... Convection continues along or near the I-30 Corridor of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR attm and will likely impact the TXK terminal here shortly and possibly impact the TYR/GGG terminals in the next 1-3 hours. The HRRR does not quite bring this convection to the I-20 Corridor of NE TX before dissipating the convection but it`s too close to just leave out any mention of storms so for the 00z TAF package, will prevail VCTS at the TYR/GGG terminal only and prevail VCTS at TXK with a TEMPO group for strong wind gusts, limited VSBY and a brief MVFR ceiling. Our remaining terminals should remain VFR with the exception of the MLU terminal which could see a brief reduction in VSBY pre sunrise. Otherwise, expect a cu field to begin developing by mid to late morning which will continue to climb and thin throughout the afternoon hours on Friday. Winds will be light from the southeast overnight except for a gust which may accompany the convection across our northwest airspace this evening. South to southeast winds should prevail during the day Friday with speeds near 10kts or less. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ UPDATE... Sent a quick update to account for the higher coverage in pops northwest of the I-30 corridor for the remainder of the afternoon hours. Following along the lines of the HRRR that this convection will begin to lose its punch once it gets south and east of the I-30 Corridor later this evening. Did not touch the remaining grids or the overnight grids other than to taper pops downward during the evening. Update already sent...13. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ SHORT TERM... The aforementioned MCS from central Oklahoma has finally moved into our region bringing some much needed rainfall across SE Oklahoma, SW Arkansas, and NE Texas. Short range models continue to suggest these storms will dissipate after sunset. Tomorrow, upper level ridging continues to expand northeastward into our region. This will result in increased subsidence and subsequently mostly dry conditions over the next couple of days. A few model solutions hint at some diurnally driven isolated convection generated mainly by daytime destabilization across the northern sections of the CWA, but confidence remains low at the moment, so decided to keep precip out of the forecast. Above normal temperatures will continue as daytime highs will reach the lower/mid 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. /20/ LONG TERM... Upper-level ridge to maintain hot and mainly dry conditions from Sunday through Tuesday with temperatures ranging from highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the mid 70s. An easterly moving upper-level trough traveling across the Gulf of Mexico will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Better rain coverage can be expected across northern Louisiana and south-central Louisiana on Tuesday, with more widespread coverage across the ArkLaTex on Wednesday. Otherwise, temperatures during midweek to range from highs in the lower 90s to lows in the mid 70s. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 94 73 94 / 10 10 10 0 MLU 70 95 72 94 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 69 92 70 93 / 10 10 10 0 TXK 70 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 0 ELD 70 93 71 93 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 74 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 0 GGG 73 94 72 93 / 10 10 10 0 LFK 72 95 72 93 / 10 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 13/13/13/20/05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
600 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms that are currently ongoing across the South Plains may move south into the Big Country this evening, possibly making it as far south as the Concho Valley and Heartland late this evening or early Friday morning. For now, have only included a VCTS group after 03z at KABI, where confidence is highest. Any thunderstorms that do develop may contain strong gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall. Patchy stratus is possible at the southern 3 sites after 10z, but have kept the TAFs VFR for now, as confidence remains low that the stratus will affect the terminals. Winds will remain from the south to southeast at 6 to 12 knots through the next 24 hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Friday) Another hot and humid afternoon across West Central Texas. Temperatures were in the 90s across the area, east of a dryline. Also, a line of strong thunderstorms was over south central Oklahoma, and moving to the south. An upper level disturbance will spark thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon, with the storms possibly moving into the Big Country by early evening (according to HRRR and NAM Nest). Although Hi-Res models indicate the storms will dissipate just south of I-20. However, storms may continue late tonight across the Concho Valley and Heartland, so going with slight chance Pops. A few storms may be severe across mainly the Big Country. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and dangerous lightning. Expect very warm conditions on Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s. 21 LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Generally quiet and warm weather expected through next week. The upper level ridge will remain over or near the area through next Friday, although it will move off to the west and northwest, weakening over our area at times. The ridge will be centered near or over our CWA through this weekend, keeping rain chances at less than 10 percent. However, 850mb temperatures are expected to cool slightly, as mentioned previously, down into the 25 degree Celsius range. With that in mind, will continue the mid to upper 90s forecast going, as opposed to the upper 90s to 105 degrees that we`ve had lately. The ridge axis is expected to move off to the northwest from Monday through the middle of next week, weakening over our area. However, we will still see temperatures well into the 90s through the end of next week, and ridging is expected to remain enough of an influence to continue a dry forecast through next Friday. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 74 96 73 96 / 40 5 0 0 San Angelo 73 98 72 96 / 20 5 0 0 Junction 71 97 71 95 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 73 95 71 95 / 20 5 0 0 Sweetwater 73 95 73 96 / 40 5 0 0 Ozona 73 94 72 93 / 20 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
829 PM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .UPDATE... After a slow start, shower and thunderstorm activity has picked up in earnest over the interior. Several outflow boundaries are making their way back toward the west, currently approaching Hillsborough and Manatee counties. In addition, a line of showers and storms is moving eastward toward the coast, mainly south of Hillsborough county. The HRRR keeps this line intact, reaching the coast around 11 PM. More times than not, storms approaching from the Gulf during the evening hours diminish before reaching the coast due to the stable boundary layer and low-level divergence associated with the sea breeze circulation. That said, if the earlier mentioned outflow boundaries are able to hold together and reach the coast from the east at the same time, the increase in low-level convergence would likely be enough to keep activity going. For the update, will err on the side of caution and continue a chance of showers and storms across the southern half of our area through midnight or so. Do expect to see a gradual decrease overnight as colliding boundaries become less organized and the boundary level stabilizes. Updates have already been sent to the web. Text products coming soon. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR most TAF sites. RSW currently with TSRA and will continue next hour or so. FMY on edge but may also end up with IFR conditions. Some chance these areas will see another round near 03Z. VFR later tonight then VCTS again Friday afternoon LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW. && .MARINE... Numerous showers and storms moving east across the waters, mainly south of Tampa Bay. Have increased coverage of storms for this evening, otherwise no major changes planned to the forecast. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 75 87 74 89 / 10 40 30 20 FMY 73 91 73 92 / 40 30 20 40 GIF 72 91 71 91 / 50 60 40 50 SRQ 74 87 73 89 / 20 40 20 20 BKV 71 88 69 90 / 10 50 40 30 SPG 77 87 75 88 / 20 40 30 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Jillson UPPER AIR...Carlisle/Barlow DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming