Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
951 PM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Upon coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, we have
cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all but the southern
Nebraska Panhandle. Gridded forecasts have been updated to adjust
for thunderstorm location for the next several hours.
UPDATE Issued at 511 PM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 1 am tonight for all of
the Nebraska Panhandle and for Albany, Platte, Goshen and Laramie
Counties of southeast Wyoming.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Currently...Cold front lays across northeast Colorado to north of
Colorado Springs to south of Craig this afternoon. Latest SPC
mesoanalysis showing 3500 J/KG SBCAPE over the Panhandle this
afternoon with capping CIN around -100 J/KG. Observed dewpoints
quite high at 1 PM this afternoon, with 61 reported at Alliance,
59 at Scottsbluff and 59 at Douglas. Do believe we are primed for
storms and just need a kicker to set things in motion.
For this afternoon, Mesoanalysis showing cap breaking around 23Z
across the Panhandle. Front over northeast Colorado lifts slightly
north into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Latest ECMWF a little
further south across northeast Colorado with this feature. Went
with the GFS solution on this features as it is supported QPF wise
with the HRRR and NMM. So looks like SPC`s Slight Risk area is
still looking pretty good for late evening/early afternoon. Did
not make any changes besides increasing PoPs over the southern
Panhandle for this afternoon/evening.
GFS going a little bonkers on QPF over the southern Panhandle this
evening around 03Z, likely convective contamination. But evening
shift will need to watch for possibility of flash flooding from
Scottsbluff to Bridgeport and points south as GFS forecasting
almost 2 inches of precip over this area tonight from 03Z to 09Z.
For Thursday, westerly winds return to southeast Wyoming and will
force low level moisture back to the east as a dryline/warm front.
Dewpoints fall from mid 50s to low 40s Thursday afternoon as this
happens behind the dryline. This dryline/warm front could be the
focus for more afternoon convection Thursday. Do agree with SPC`s
Slight Risk location.
One final day of severe thunderstorms possible in the Panhandle
for Friday as low level moisture finally gets scoured out to the
west through the day.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Friday night/Saturday...Low level boundary sets up over western
Nebraska which may aid in producing isolated evening showers and
thunderstorms there Friday evening. On Saturday, relatively warm
temperatures aloft...16 Celsius...will help limit convective
development with perhaps only isolated, if any, showers and
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening.
Sunday...Southwest flow aloft strengthens as a potent trough aloft
moves across Montana. Looks like minimal low and mid level moisture,
combined with warm temperatures aloft will inhibit most convection
from forming. Continued warm with 700 mb temperatures near 16
Celsius.
Monday...Cooler temperatures expected in the wake of a cold front
that passes early in the day. Looks like low and mid level moisture
will be too scant for any showers or thunderstorms.
Tuesday/Wednesday...Zonal flow prevails with the atmosphere looking
too dry to support any precipitation for Tuesday. However, will see
a return of low and mid level moisture for Wednesday, aiding in the
development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms mainly east of Interstate 25. Gradual warming
trend each day based on 700 mb temperature trends.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Wyoming TAFS...VFR, with localized IFR at Cheyenne from 09Z to
15Z. Wind gusts to 28 knots after 15Z Thursday.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR, with localized MVFR at Sidney through 08Z in
thunderstorms with gusts to 35 knots. MVFR developing in low
clouds and fog from 08Z to 15Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots after 18Z
Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Very dry conditions west of the Laramie Range this afternoon.
Single digit humidities being reported across Carbon County, with
low to mid teens up through and including the south Laramie
Range. Fortunately, fuels are not ready and for the most part,
winds have stayed below critical levels. Gusty southwest winds
Thursday across Carbon and Albany Counties will create elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions with some gusts to 35 mph
likely. Warmer and dry pattern continues into next week.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
704 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
A few isolated showers are expected this afternoon from the north
shore through the Twin Ports and toward Aitkin County and points
east. The showers will be brief with only a trace of precipitation
expected. The showers will progress across northwest Wisconsin
during the late afternoon into the early evening just ahead of a
weak and subtle shortwave trough observed in the RAP analysis and
GOES-East channel 10 low-level water vapor. High pressure will
move into the Northland for tonight with mainly clear skies
expected. Efficient radiational cooling along with last night`s
rainfall should be sufficient to support patchy fog overnight.
Lows will dip into the low to middle 40s. Temperatures will dip
even cooler where fog and low stratus does not form overnight.
Thursday will be mainly sunny to partly cloudy with high pressure
overhead. A lake-breeze will move inland during the late morning
and afternoon hours, keeping temperatures a little cooler for
locations near Lake Superior. Highs will be in the low 60s
along the shoreline to the upper 60s and low 70s farther inland,
with upper 70s expected in north-central Minnesota. The high-
resolution 4km NAM Nest features a few showers over central and
north-central Minnesota Thursday afternoon ahead of a shortwave
trough. The remainder of the guidance features the trough, but
keeps the forecast dry. Have raised POPs slightly for the
afternoon while maintaining a dry forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
An area of low pressure and upper level shortwave will impact the
Northland late in the week and into the weekend. By 12Z Friday,
there should be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
southwest third of the CWA. The models are generally in decent
agreement in terms of overall mass fields, but differ with respect
to QPF areas and amounts, as is to be expected this time of year.
The northeast half of the CWA at least should stay dry on Thursday
night and Friday. By Friday night, the models start to exhibit
some further differences. However, the majority of the model
solutions keep dry weather over the Minnesota Arrowhead and the
Lake Superior region. Showers and thunderstorms should be most
likely south and west of our CWA late in the week. The weekend is
shaping up to be dry for those areas as well, with small chances
across the south and west on Saturday. Sunday should be dry across
the entire region. Meanwhile, a cold front moving into the
Northern Plains on Monday will push a cold front into Minnesota
during the afternoon. This frontal boundary could set the stage
for showers and thunderstorms from Monday into early Tuesday. A
bit cooler and drier air will then move into the Northland for the
middle part of the work week. High temperatures throughout the
period will generally be in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
An area of high pressure will keep the Northland dry and under VFR
conditions through the period. As the high passes by to the east,
the wind will turn from northwest to east to southeast for most
areas.
There could be some patchy fog tonight but it appears too low to
include in any of the TAFS at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 69 48 66 / 0 10 10 20
INL 43 77 51 77 / 0 10 0 20
BRD 49 76 55 74 / 0 10 20 30
HYR 47 76 53 74 / 20 0 20 30
ASX 48 66 45 67 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
647 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
A surface boundary is draped across central Iowa from near Spencer
to south of Mason City to north of Vinton and Anamosa. SSW winds
south of the boundary were advecting higher moisture into the
western half of the CWA where dewpoints are currently around 60 F.
In central Iowa, dewpoints are in the lower 70s.
The high heat and humidity over central Iowa has resulted in a large
east to west CAPE gradient between the Quad Cities and Des Moines.
This instability will be the fuel for storms later this afternoon and
evening, with the strongest activity west of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Late This Afternoon and Tonight
Scattered thunderstorms expected to initiate over central Iowa
during the mid to late afternoon along a southward moving cold
front. The mean 850-300mb flow and forward-propagating Corfidi
vectors would track storms to the ESE into the western and central
forecast area. However, the low-level theta-e/instability gradient
and 1000-500mb thickness contours favor more of a southerly
progression of the convection through this evening.
It still appears the better chance for widespread storms from
upscale growth into an MCS is west of the forecast area into central
and western Iowa. This is where MLCAPE is very high -- 3000-4000
J/kg. Locally, the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight risk for
severe storms over the western third of the CWA with a Marginal risk
extending toward the Mississippi River. Most likely timing is 4 to
10 PM from NW to SE, best chances west of the Mississippi River.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging winds,
large hail, and frequent lightning. Again, this risk is highest over
the western forecast area, especially if storms can consolidate into
a line or MCS. Recent HRRR runs have trended weaker with the
convective organization in the western CWA; will have to continue to
assess, as storms have yet to initiate in central Iowa.
Thursday
Overnight convection may push an outflow boundary or stationary
front to the south of the forecast area. For this reason, only have
slight chances for showers and storms through the day. Highs in the
80s and dewpoints in the 60s will make it feel muggy. Uttech
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Thursday night and Friday...Broad mid-CONUS upper ridge will
maintain into the end of the week, with brunt of real thermal dome
building up the southwestern plains into the 4-corners region. The
local CWA will be under the north to northeastern periphery, with
preferred storm cluster/MCS H85 19-23 C thermal track laying out
from west-northwest to east-southeast acrs IA into northern IL
through at least Saturday. With signs of a ridge-rider vort max/wave
pushing acrs the MO RVR Valley into central IA Thu night, along with
the main warm front(along with any lingering out-flow or
discontinuity boundaries), the stage will be set for the ongoing
chances of showers and thunderstorms. A 20-30+ KT THTA-E feeding
H85 MB nocturnal jet will also be a support factor. The 12z models
vary quite a bit on coverage, such as the 12z ECMWF with a warm air
advection wing of convection more acrs the northern half of the CWA,
the NAM more south of I-80, and the 12z GFS with activity acrs most
of the CWA. Most of the H85 jet progs have a convergent swath along
and just south of I80, thus the middle of the road(along and a few
counties either side of I80 may see the best chance for storms
clusters tomorrow night. But with the uncertainties, like many of
the upcoming periods, will have to cover with at least moderate
chance POPs acrs much of the area.
30-40 KT bulk shear with lingering 1000-2000 J/KG CAPEs would
support some severe storm risk during the evening. PWAT`s of 1.5 to
1.8 inches suggest locally heavy rain swaths as well, with some
spots getting possibly over an inch and a half by Friday morning.
Depending on lingering convective debris and boundaries, warm up and
extent of instability build on Friday at question...especially in
areas with longer durations of east to southeasterly sfc flow. But
with a possible another ridge-riding vort and even marginal recovery,
POP chances continue to be needed acrs the area especially by
late Friday afternoon and into the night. The Euro suggests the
main MCS to push acrs just to the north acrs MN into WI, but don`t
trust that far of a northerly path and think the more southerly
GFS more on target.
Saturday and Sunday...With a seasonably strong upper jet punching
inland acrs the west coast with digging intermountain trof, the
squeeze play will be on with mid conus upper ridge and thermal dome
amplification. The CWA will still look to be on the edge of the heat
and active strom zone, and POPS will continue and hard to find a dry
period. But of course, many dry hours this weekend in between the
storm clusters. Some signs of MCS potential right acrs the heart of
the CWA Sat night, especially if the convective spawning parameters
indicated by the 12z ECMWF have their way. Heavy rain and marginally
severe storms will continue to be possible over the weekend. High
temperatures will be a challenge with ongoing question of how much
nocturnal debris lingers well into the day. Will do a general range
of upper 70s northeast, to the upper 80s or near 90 in the south and
southwest.
Monday through next Wednesday...Another trof traversing the upper
Midwest will bring about another focused chance of precip late
Monday into Tuesday, before thermal ridge re-adjusts up the MS RVR
Valley for a potential real heat up by mid to late next week. But
the 12z GFS not as warm and continued with a rather wet pattern
through mid next week. Upper jet trends for the extended lean
toward the dry/hot Euro, but low confidence with this idea for now.
..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area for the
next 24 hours. Thunderstorms will pass to the west of KCID and
KBRL through 06 utc this evening. Light winds are forecast through
the period.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Cousins
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
944 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
.UPDATE...
Only change was to lower PoPs across the board tonight and into
the mid morning hours. Still there is a very small chance of a
few elevated showers or storms near Paris late tonight where an
old frontal boundary continues to reside.
The main forecast drivers are 2 storm complexes in the High
Plains. The first one is located north of the Oklahoma Panhandle
and remains poorly organized with a weak cold pool. It still has
not moved much, but should eventually head east or southeast if
it can persist. The 2nd complex is a long way off in southwestern
Nebraska, but is well organized and already starting to move
south/southeast at a good clip. A few of the high-res models do
indicate that one or the other MCS will persist into tomorrow and
feed off the very unstable airmass across Kansas, Oklahoma, and
eventually Texas. Either complex (should they hold together)
would put the window for storms in our CWA in the midday to
afternoon hours. Still confidence is too low to say for sure
whether they will impact our weather, so PoPs will remain in the
20-30 percent range over the northern half of the area. We will
have a better idea of our storm potential in a few more hours
after we can see if and how well these MCSs mature and their exact
bearing/speed.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018/
VFR will prevail through the period, and although TAFs have no
mention of convection, we will have to monitor this potential for
the mid morning to afternoon hours Thursday. S/SE winds at 10-15
knots with scattered cumulus and high clouds should
prevail...again provided there are no convective influences.
Convection to the east of the TRACON will continue for a couple
more hours, but this activity should dissipate with loss of
heating. Unlike the last 2 nights, there`s no indication of warm
advection/isentropic lift in any of the models and the old
synoptic boundary has become very ill defined. This old boundary
is probably what is causing the current convection to our
east...but models are forecasting the low level flow to stay
parallel to it (more out of the SSE) as opposed to SWLY the last 2
nights which would provide more lift.
We will be watching the convection in the High Plains for any
possible impacts here Thursday. Given the current upper flow it
wouldn`t be until mid-late morning for a complex or outflow
boundary to make it into the region. The airmass tomorrow will be
very unstable, uncapped, and have plenty of moisture for
convection. The missing ingredient is lift, which could be
supplied by existing convection in the form of a MCS or even
remnant outflow boundary. If no lift from any storms to the
northwest becomes available, then some very isolated cells may
develop in the late afternoon like today. In this scenario the
atmosphere would still be unstable heading into Thursday evening
and we`d have to again watch convective trends to our northwest
to see if there is a chance of storms Thursday night. All in all,
these storm chances are just too low to mention in the TAF at
this time, but we will be watching it all closely.
TR.92
&&
.DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018/
The conditional threat for nocturnal MCS activity will be the
primary concern tonight/Thursday morning and again on Friday
morning. Beyond Friday, the forecast is a little more complicated.
From a climatological standpoint, the ridge *should* build to the
east, but there`s a big caveat. If nocturnal thunderstorm
complexes occur Thursday morning and again on Friday morning, the
the eastward progression of the ridge could be halted and result
in more widespread rain chances over the weekend (mainly through
the overnight periods) than currently advertised.
This evening/tonight---Afternoon convection is expected to
continue across two parts of the area. The first is across the
Big Country where discontinuities in both surface moisture and RAP
analyzed 850-700mb theta-e exist. While the convective activity
here is likely very high based and innocuous looking on radar and
satellite imagery, there will be a potential for low-
precipitation downbursts given the nearly 40 degree dewpoint
depressions. The other area of concern will be across East Texas
where a pronounced cumulus congestus field is observed. There will
be a risk for strong winds and heavy rain with this activity. We
will carry a 20 PoP for both of these areas thru about 03 UTC
Thursday. Thereafter, our attention will turn to the north for
another possibly overnight thunderstorm complex.
Thursday Morning through Friday---Most NWP is in agreement that
convection will develop to the north across the Oklahoma-Texas
panhandles/adjacent portions of Kansas tonight into Thursday
morning. A slightly stronger than normal 925-850mb LLJ is expected
to transport rich theta-e northward. As this complex moves
eastward, it could intercept some of this unstable air and build
southward towards the Red River. While not a guarantee, this
scenario is plausible and is loosely supported by most hi-
resolution NWP. The WRF-NMM, NSSL WRF and 4 km Ensemble TTU WRF
are the aggressors with rain chances across North Texas.
Forecast soundings after midnight tonight along the Red River
indicate a healthy amount of instability (of around 2500-3000
J/kg) with modest deep layer shear on the order of 25 knots. These
factors coupled with cold- pool dynamics could suggest another
potential for strong to possibly severe storms. The main hazards
would be large hail and damaging wind. Heavy rain will also be a
potential as well. It should be noted that this is a conditional
risk for strong to severe storms. The most likely time frame for
storms will be after midnight through about sunrise Thursday.
Should storms occur, they`ll most likely occur north of I-20,
though areas as far south as a Comanche to Canton line will have
the potential for a few showers and storms if convection is quite
robust. If convection to the north struggles or does not
materialize as currently thought, it may be a much quieter night
weather wise across the area.
I`ll keep low confidence, low PoPs through midday Thursday,
mainly near and north of a Graham to Ennis to Berryville line
where the complex of storms is most likely to track should it
occur. During the afternoon hours, the potential for showers and
maybe an isolated storm or two will exist, mainly across the
Brazos Valley of Central Texas.
For Friday, rain/storm chances will return again during the morning
as the area remains under the influence of north to northwest
flow aloft. Some of the coarser models, though likely due to convective
feedback, have a QPF signal, mainly across western North Texas
and the Big Country. I`ve nudged PoPs upward again across these
areas as a result. Showers and a few storms may linger through
the day on Friday near and north of I-20. Again, there may be a
strong to severe weather risk, but we will examine this potential
over the next several shifts.
The Weekend---Saturday and most of Sunday looks rain-free and
hot. However, there are signals that we may see the re-enforced
sea-breeze invade parts of the Brazos Valley of Central Texas
late Sunday afternoon. I`ll advertise some low PoPs across these
zones given that high temperatures are advertised to climb into
the low to mid 90s. With these temperatures, there could be a
gusty to strong downburst wind potential. Otherwise, the main
weather headline this weekend will be the heat with heat index
values near 100 degrees. At this time, it appears that we will
stay below heat advisory criteria.
Early next week---Heading into early next week, all signs are
that most of the region will remain dry, with only low rain
chances out across East Texas. It`s across this region that the H5
ridge will be weakest on its eastern periphery. For most
locations, however, the heat will continue to be the main theme
with air temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat index
values of up to 102 degrees.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 94 76 95 76 / 5 20 10 20 5
Waco 76 96 74 97 74 / 5 10 10 10 5
Paris 72 91 72 93 72 / 10 30 10 20 5
Denton 77 94 75 94 74 / 5 20 10 30 5
McKinney 75 93 74 93 74 / 5 20 10 20 5
Dallas 79 95 78 96 77 / 5 20 10 20 5
Terrell 76 93 74 95 73 / 5 20 10 10 5
Corsicana 75 93 74 94 73 / 5 10 10 10 5
Temple 75 94 73 95 73 / 5 20 10 10 5
Mineral Wells 76 95 74 93 73 / 5 20 20 30 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1205 AM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Isolated showers are possible this evening, otherwise dry conditions
will persist through Thursday night. A warm front moving north
toward Lower Michigan Friday will act as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Forecast concerns deal with precipitation chances this evening and
again Thursday night through Friday night.
Latest radar shows a weakening area of showers moving over Lake
Michigan. Much of this precipitation has dissipated during the past
few hours. However, the back edge has persisted as it moved out over
the western half of the lake. Based on latest soundings, it`s
running into very dry air in the low levels and so these showers
should continue to decrease in coverage. That said, latest HRRR and
3km Nam both show some precipitation moving over the western cwa
this evening, so we have low chc pops to cover that.
High pressure builds into the cwa Thursday. This will lead to
continued mostly sunny weather. Clouds will increase late Thursday
as the frontal boundary lifts north. Low pressure will ride east
along the boundary and showers and thunderstorms are likely Friday
night, especially over the southern cwa. A 40 llj will fuel the
storms. The ecmwf remains the farthest north with this system, but
the trend of the models has been to the south.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Upper flow regime features a rather quickly evolving omega block
during the extended, with most of the period seeing fair weather. On
Saturday, sfc ridging noses in from the north with heights rising as
narrow upper ridge builds to our west. Showers and a few
thunderstorms could linger across the southern third of Lower
Michigan most of the day before the boundary shifts further south.
Fairly good agreement on the forecast details for early next week
with the 12Z forecast guidance with dry weather Sunday and Monday
then increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as
ridge shifts east and deamplifies leaving nearly zonal flow across
the Great Lakes region. Weak sfc low and trailing cold front push
through late Tuesday and off to the east with showers ending on
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018
VFR conditions will continue at all the terminals through
Thursday evening with cloud bases at or above 5 kft agl and wind
speeds below 10 kts as a high pressure ridge building in will
result in a weak pressure gradient. Isolated patchy fog may
develop early Thursday morning but with clouds streaming in from
the west overnight fog potential seems quite low.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018
North winds will develop over the nearshore Thursday as high
pressure noses in from Ontario resulting in 1 to 3 foot waves.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1152 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
River levels continue to run higher than normal for this time of
year, though none are flooding. Rainfall Monday night to Tuesday
morning fell in broad swaths of 0.1 to 0.2 inches with a couple
narrow swaths between 0.3 and 0.6 inches. River levels are not
expected to change much as a result. The pattern for sporadic
showers and thunderstorms in the latter half of the week does not
show a strong signal for widespread heavy rain, though some locally
heavy rain is always possible with summer storms.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...Ostuno
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
In the near term rap and hrr in fair agreement with development
of thunderstorms along the stationary boundary over southwest
Nebraska this afternoon. Steep lapse rates and drier mid level
sounding would suggest strong winds initially. Weaker low level
jet develops over northwest Kansas this afternoon around 20kts.
Low level jet ramps up to 45 kts through 06z with biggest push
from 03z through 06z. sb capes around 1800 with mu capes
increasing to around 3000 joules. Upslope easterly flow will aid
in convergence and lift. fairly strong 500mb wave will move across
the area coinciding with the max low level jet. Pwats around 130
percent of normal around an inch, with thunderstorms capable of
moderate to heavy rainfall.
A stronger wave rounds the ridge Thursday with temperatures knocked
back into the 80s another round of thunderstorms in late afternoon
early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Friday through Sunday typical summer time pattern with storms firing
off the front range and then moving across the plains into western
Nebraska late afternoon and evening. Highs around 90 through the
period.
A strong trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and onto the
northern plains Sunday sending a cool front through the area Sunday
night into Monday with thunderstorms and temperatures back in the
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018
Timing of thunderstorms, especially across the southern two-thirds
of the area will be the main forecast challenge. Newest CAMS
suggest storms congealing and growing upscale and moving across
much of the area overnight. Low level jet may be a factor as well,
however have not included in the TAF at this time since it will be
in and near convection. KVTN will have the lesser chance for
storms because of its more northern proximity.
Once storms move out there will likely be convective debris in the
form of mid level clouds in the morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Stoppkotte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
350 PM MST Wed Jun 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms east of Tucson ending this
evening. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday east of
Tucson. Otherwise, dry conditions with above normal daytime
temperatures across much of the area through this weekend. Increased
thunderstorm coverage may then occur by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
mostly east of a Safford to just east of Sierra Vista line at this
time. Thunderstorms developed around noon near Douglas and quickly
strengthened such that a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for South
central Cochise County was issued at 12:09 pm MST. This was the
first Severe Thunderstorm Warning issuance by WFO TWC in 2018.
At any rate, a storm spotter in Douglas subsequently reported dime
sized hail. Although much of this activity occurred across the
eastern portion of this forecast area, an isolated thunderstorm
developed as far west in vicinity of Vail. Based on several HRRR
solutions as well as the Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and WRF-GFS, the
expectation is that showers/tstms will move east of this forecast
shortly after sunset. Clear skies or mostly clear skies should
prevail later tonight.
A southwesterly flow aloft regime is progged to continue through
Friday in response to an expansive area of high pressure east of the
area, and a trough of low pressure near the West Coast. For this
forecast issuance have opted for precip-free conditions through
Friday. However, this scenario is different than depicted via the
Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and WRF-GFS that suggest showers/tstms may again
occur Thursday mainly across Cochise County.
Several NWP models suggest that Saturday may bode for better
thunderstorm chances as the mid-level steering flow briefly becomes
backs to a more southerly component. Thus, there is a slight chance
of showers/tstms Saturday afternoon/evening east of Tucson. Precip-
free conditions should return Sunday as westerly flow aloft shunts
somewhat deeper moisture east of the area.
By Monday, the deterministic 06/12Z GFS/ECMWF were quite similar
with depicting the 700-500 mb flow to become increasingly sely as
high pressure aloft strengthens over the southern Rockies. Per
coordination with neighboring WFO`s, have maintained precip-free
conditions Monday. However, given this progged flow regime, would
not be surprised to eventually see showers/tstms to at least
encroach upon far southern sections.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF remained very similar with suggesting
increased thunderstorm coverage next Tuesday and Wednesday given a
continued sly/sely flow regime. However, have noted that the 18Z GFS
has trended with less precip potential for next Wednesday versus the
12Z GFS. At any rate, the official forecast depicts a slight chance
of showers/tstms east of Tucson Tuesday afternoon/evening, then a
slight chance of showers/tstms as far west as the Tucson metro area
next Wednesday.
High temps Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be about 3-8
degrees or so above normal, then daytime temps should generally
moderate closer to seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA east of a KSAD-KFHU line ending this evening.
Otherwise, FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL becoming clear skies to
SCT clouds above 15k ft AGL around 07/06Z and into Thursday morning.
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL Thursday afternoon. Surface wind
early this evening and Thursday afternoon swly/wly 10-15 kts with
gusts near 25 kts. Surface wind variable in direction less than 12
kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms east of Tucson ending this
evening. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday east of
Tucson. Otherwise, dry conditions across much of the area into this
weekend. Thunderstorm coverage may increase significantly by the
middle of next week. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be gusty at times
during the afternoon hours due to strong daytime heating.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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