Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1033 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers are possible overnight especially north and west of the Capital Region, as disturbances rotate around an upper level low. Temperatures will continue to be below normal through Wednesday. Drying conditions with moderating temperatures are expected by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1033 PM EDT... An upper level low is moving towards the Gulf of St Lawrence at 0230 UTC. Multiple impulses continue to pivot around the low in the cyclonic flow. Isolated to scattered showers are persisting north and west of the Tri Cities. Some light amounts have been noted north of Albany. We retooled the POPs based on the radar and 3-km HRRR trends. The rain showers should diminish after 06Z. Although there will be some breaks across southern areas, skies should stay fairly overcast through the overnight hours. Lows will generally be in the lower 40s to lower 50s. On Wednesday, the upper level low will continue to weaken and move away from the region, as it heads across Atlantic Canada. Still cannot totally rule out a brief morning shower or sprinkle (especially for the high terrain), otherwise, it looks fairly dry for Wednesday with clouds breaking for some afternoon sun. Temps aloft will still be on the cooler side, so it will be another below normal day, but still somewhat milder than the last few days. Highs look to reach into the 60s everywhere, with mid to upper 60s for valley areas. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry and cool conditions are expected Wednesday night, as an area of surface high pressure builds east centered over the mid Atlantic region. Generally dry weather should prevail Thursday into Friday with a moderating trend in temperatures. Lows Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with lows Thursday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60s to near 80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended forecast begins with high pressure over the region moving eastward, as a wave of low pressure approaches from the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes Region. Clouds will increase from the south and west Friday night, as some over running rainfall/showers will impact locations south and west of the Capital Region towards daybreak Saturday based on some of the medium range deterministic guidance and the ensembles. Lows FRI night will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Saturday-Saturday night...A short-wave in the west to northwest flow aloft combined with the low pressure system and cold front dropping south and east will yield a chance of showers for most of the region and a slight chance of thunderstorms especially south of Albany. It is difficult to determine if any portion of the forecast area gets into a warm sector, so any convection looks to be elevated at this point with some locally heavy rainfall, as PWATS may slightly rise above normal. Highs on Saturday will generally be in the mid and upper 70s over the hills and in the valley areas, and mid 60s to lower 70s over the mtns. Lows will generally be in the 50s with some upper 40s in the Adirondack Park. Sunday-Sunday night...An upper level disturbance may produce some sprinkles or a slight to low chance of showers in the cyclonic flow aloft. It will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and cool to close the weekend with highs a little below normal in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the region. High pressure ridges south and east from James Bay with clearing skies and cool conditions with lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Monday-Tuesday...Fair and dry weather continues with the cool Canadian air mass over the Northeast. Temps will be slightly below normal to normal for mid-June with comfortable humidity levels, as PWATS will be 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal according to the latest GEFS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper low moving towards the Gulf of St Lawrence this evening will keep a threat of isolated to scattered showers over portions of the area tonight into tomorrow, as disturbances rotating around the low impact the region. In the cyclonic flow at the sfc and aloft, the best chance of showers will be from KALB northward tonight. VFR cigs early this evening in the 4-6 kft AGL range will lower into the lower VFR and high MVFR range from KALB/KPSF northward. KPOU will likely stay VFR most of the night. Some scattered showers for KALB/KGFL may yield MVFR vsbys briefly. Cigs will generally be 1.5 kft AGL to 3.5 kft AGL by daybreak. Cigs will improve to VFR levels by the late morning at all the TAF sites. Expect cigs to be in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range, and to become scattered to broken from KALB south and east by the mid to late pm. An isolated shower or sprinkle is possible, and the probability is low, so we left mention out of the TAFs for now. N to NW winds of 5-12 kts early this evening will become light from the north at 6 kts or less. The winds will be light tomorrow from the north to east at 6 kts or less. Outlook... Wednesday Night to Friday night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... More showers are possible tonight into Wednesday, as disturbances rotate around an upper level low. Temperatures will continue to be below normal through Wednesday. Drying conditions with moderating temperatures are expected by Thursday. Relative humidity values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight, drop to 45 to 65 percent on Wednesday, recover to 85 to 100 percent Wednesday night, and drop to 45 to 60 percent on Thursday. Winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight, north around 5 mph on Wednesday, west around 5 mph Wednesday night, and west to southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers through Wednesday will result in an additional tenth of an inch or less in most areas. Coverage will be mainly scattered. Mainly dry conditions are then expected Wednesday night through Friday. There is the potential for some widespread rainfall over the weekend, although the details of placement and timing are very uncertain at this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...11/Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
925 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Severe t-storm watch out through early Wed morning. Overall besides the watch no big changes to our thinking for tonight. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 No major deviations from the previous thinking for tonight. We`re still on track for scattered severe storms to develop this evening, roughly between 01-03 UTC across south central ND. Next forecast update will be for severe watch issuance, which SPC indicated if issued would happen between 01-02 UTC. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Tonight`s severe weather threat over south central North Dakota and the southern James River Valley highlights the short term. An upper level ridge will move across the state through the afternoon as a northern stream shortwave approaches from the west. While most of the energy from this wave will stay north of the international border, two separate pieces of energy are evident on water vapor and visible satellite imagery. One impulse was associated with some scattered convection across eastern Montana, and a stronger impulse was located over eastern Wyoming. At the surface, a weak cold front was extending south southwest from low pressure located over central Manitoba to near Hettinger. Showers from the impulse over Montana will make their way into western North Dakota through the afternoon, moving northeast. Ahead of the cold front, the warm sector will likely remain capped through the afternoon, with very warm surface temperatures (reaching into the low to mid 90s across south central and the James River Valley), neutral to slightly rising heights, and very little large scale forcing. Additionally, RAP soundings suggest a modest, yet deep elevated mixed layer over KJMS and KBIS through the afternoon. With very little cloud cover across the south central and southeast, temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s, and dewpoints in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, the atmosphere will become moderately unstable with MLCAPE values reaching as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg. By 00z the impulse moving northeast out of Wyoming will have accelerated across western South Dakota, bringing with it height falls. This evening, the cold front will likely be draped from near Carrington, southwest to Bismarck, to near Elgin. As heights begin to fall and we cool aloft, both waves will allow convection to initiate along or behind the cold front in the 00z to 03z time frame. High Resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement with regards to convective initiation timing and general location. The first storms are likely to develop near Carrington where capping will be at a relative minimum, before building southwest along the rest of the frontal zone. When storms do initiate, they are likely to become rapidly severe with plenty of MUCAPE and deep layer shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots. A consistent signal has been present among SPC HREF ensemble members regarding strong updraft helicity with these storms, painting neighborhood probabilities of UH greater than 100 m2/s2 in the 50 to 70 percent range, generally in the window from 02z to 05z. This signal suggests that any storms that do form will exhibit strong supercell characteristics. Low level wind fields to not appear very favorable for tornadic development, but strong rotating updrafts will be favorable for the production of very large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. Also of note is that several convection allowing models have been consistently showing UH values greater than 200 m2/s2, including both the operational and the experimental HRRR cores. Convection should begin to diminish in intensity around 06z, but showers and thunderstorms may linger across the south through 09z to 11z. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Ridging builds back in again on Wednesday with pleasant weather and highs in the 70s with some lower 80s across the south. Another impulse approaches late Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. SPC has southwest North Dakota in a slight risk for Day 3. A deepening longwave trough and stronger wave will approach the state on Sunday and will bring our next chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday and into Monday. This will also be a system we will have to monitor for severe weather potential as details continue to come into view, as the pattern has consistently been advertised on the GFS and ECMWF. 00z CIPS analog guidance was also showing a signal for some severe weather during this time period. Temperatures will generally remain in the 70s and 80s through the extended time period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Showers and thunderstorm will develop across south central and southeastern ND this evening, possibly impacting both KBIS and KJMS. Strong to severe storms will be possible at both terminals from 02-06Z. Winds associated with any storms will be gusty and very erratic. Overall VFR conditions are expected through the period, though any strong thunderstorm will likely produce IFR or lower conditions for a period this evening/early Wed morning, again for KJMS and KBIS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...ZH LONG TERM...ZH AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
856 PM MDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .UPDATE... Thunderstorm activity moved out of the area a little quicker than the forecast had. Made some minor tweaks to the PoPs and weather to remove all but a slight chance in southeastern Montana. Rest of the forecast looks good. Reimer && .SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu... Unstable SW flow aloft over our region today. However, the post-frontal environment is relatively cool in the lower levels and has resulted in a fairly strong cap across the plains. We have seen a few cells develop over our area, but these have produced little if any precip at the ground as convection remains elevated. That said...the models do suggest the cap will weaken by 5 PM today. This could be a little too aggressive given the cloud cover we currently have in the west. Still, the HRRR is sticking with some decent deeper convection late today and through the evening moving west to east across the CWA as a short wave moves across. Its mainly focused from southern Yellowstone to eastern Powder River County. Areas to the southeast of Billings have received more sunshine this afternoon, so even if its weaker convection west of Billings, it may strengthen as it moves east with the short wave energy track. We have adjusted evening and overnight PoP`s accordingly. We cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with the best chance south and east of Billings. For Wednesday, increasing southwest flow aloft continues to send several disturbances across our CWA. PWATS continue to be high and we should see some decent diurnal heating at midday leading to strong destabilization. Shear is not as strong as todays, but we could see an isolated severe (hail and wind) and some heavy rainers. A pretty strong short wave moves over the region Thursday leading to strong destabilization and steep lapse rates. PWATS continue to be 0.75-1.00 inches. So expect torrential rain for the latter part of Thursday with some storms. We feel the greatest threat of severe hail is in the southeast corner of the state where shear is progged to be around or over 40 kts. BT .LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue... Ensembles showed some uncertainty with the pattern beginning on Sunday. There were a few QPF differences between the GFS and ECMWF during the period, but overall the two models were in decent agreement. Friday looked mostly dry with just some convection over the mountains, as energy moves through a weak upper ridge over the area. Had some thunder in the forecast W of KBIL Fri. evening. SW flow overtakes the area Saturday, ahead of a strong Pacific trough. Lack of energy in the flow supported a dry forecast for now. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees in several locations. The trough swings into the region on Sunday, bringing isolated thunderstorms. A strong cold front will cross the area, ushering in windy conditions. The trough then swings NE, leaving the area under cyclonic flow for Monday. Windy conditions will continue Sun. evening. Monday through Tuesday looked dry as the trough/upper low pulls N away from the region. Temperatures will be in the 70s behind the cold front for late in the period. Arthur && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail late tonight through Wednesday morning, then thunderstorms will develop and move off of the mountains in the afternoon. These thunderstorm could produce localized MVFR to IFR conditions. Arthur/Reimer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/081 056/082 057/082 058/090 059/079 050/073 051/078 22/T 34/T 21/B 21/U 01/U 10/U 11/U LVM 047/078 050/080 050/080 049/088 050/072 044/068 044/075 22/T 34/T 31/B 20/U 02/T 21/B 11/U HDN 054/083 057/084 057/084 058/090 059/082 049/076 049/079 41/B 45/T 21/U 21/U 01/U 11/U 11/U MLS 054/082 061/083 060/083 060/088 063/083 055/076 053/079 30/U 45/T 41/B 11/U 11/U 10/B 01/U 4BQ 054/081 058/084 059/083 059/088 063/087 053/077 052/080 40/U 44/T 41/U 11/U 11/U 10/U 11/U BHK 051/079 057/078 057/081 056/085 061/084 052/076 048/079 20/U 43/T 51/B 11/U 11/N 10/B 01/U SHR 051/080 053/082 054/080 054/087 055/082 046/074 046/076 22/T 53/T 22/T 21/U 02/T 10/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
948 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drop southward toward the forecast area on Wednesday and then settle across north Florida by Friday morning. Atlantic high pressure will then prevail offshore through the weekend. A backdoor cold front should approach the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A weak and sheared vort lobe and associated upper jet will pull through most if not all the forecast area before dawn, with broad and very weak cyclonic flow prevails at the surface. It`ll take until after midnight before we start to experience some clearing from W-NW to E-SE of the mostly thick broken to overcast cirriform clouds, and scattered to locally broken altocumulus. Based on this transition and latest satellite trends, we continue to delay any decrease in cloud cover from the previous forecast. But on the flip side, better clearing will arrive across Berkeley and Dorchester counties toward dawn, and it is here where we lowered temps a couple of degrees. Overall, lows will be in the mid and upper 60s inland from US-17 and lower 70s closer to the coast. There are still no strong indicators of fog, with the reliable SREF, NARRE-TL and HRRR all showing little to no chance. Given that most areas won`t achieve their cross-over temps and their is extensive cloud cover, we still don`t have any mention of fog in the forecast. Should any occur, it would be closer to sunrise, and mainly over the seaward portions of Charleston and coastal Colleton where the higher dew points were located on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday and Wednesday night: A mid/upper level trough will be situated along the Gulf Coast in the morning, and will slowly sink southward through the day. At the surface, a weak cold front will start the day north of the forecast area and will progress southward through the day. However, model soundings show strong capping from an inversion around 700 mb, as well as very dry air in the sub-cloud layer. As such, a dry forecast remains in place. Temperatures should be warmer than Tuesday, with highs reaching the low 90s away from the coast. Weak downslope flow will prevail in the morning, before the sea breeze develops and take over at the coast in the mid/late afternoon hours. Overnight, there could be isolated showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters with some weak convergence along the front and near a weak surface low. Overall, should be a quiet night with lows ranging from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s at the coast. Thursday through Friday: Overall, the end of the week looks very summerlike, with a modest increase in convection chances each day. For Thursday, soundings show a bit less capping especially for southeast South Carolina. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible but the most locations will stay dry. Friday looks a bit more active thanks to the presence of a weak surface low sitting off the north Florida coast. This could even include some convective development late Thursday night and Friday morning for the coastal waters. Rain chances are in the 20-30 percent chance range and the severe threat is near zero due to the lack of instability. Temperatures are expected to top our in the upper 80s to low 90s, or a few degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A summerlike pattern will persist through much of the weekend as high pressure prevails offshore and lee troughing occurs inland. However, models insist mid/upper lvl energy meandering over northern Florida and Southeast Georgia, suggesting slightly greater coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon when temperature and moisture levels indicate greater instability. High temps should peak in the lower 90s away from the coast each day while overnight lows remain in the low/mid 70s. A more pronounced period of showers and thunderstorms should arrive early next week when a well defined backdoor cold front shifts into the area Monday through Tuesday. At this time, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, some of which could be heavy rainfall producers as PWATs approach 2.0 inches. The arrival of the front along with increasing precip coverage should support cooler temps, peaking in the mid/upper 80s north to near 90 south on Monday, then low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be slightly cooler, dipping into the upper 60s inland to lower 70s closer to the coast. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Any chance of light fog for a brief time at KCHS early Wednesday is too low a probability to show in the TAF, so VFR conditions will prevail there and at KSAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the week. However, brief flight restrictions are possible at both CHS and SAV terminals during afternoon showers/thunderstorms this weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight: Generally light SW or W winds will persist, veering a little further near the coast late as a land breeze develops. No significant incoming swell will keep seas in the 1 to 2 foot range. Wednesday through Sunday: Overall, quiet conditions will prevail across the local waters through the weekend. Winds will generally top out around 10 knots, but could surge into the 10-15 knot range at times. This would be most prevalent along the land/sea interface during the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will be in the 1-3 ft range through the period.n 1-3 ft, highest in northern South Carolina waters near 20 nm away from the coast this weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION...CEB MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Westerly winds, mainly clear skies, and low humidity have allowed temperatures to warm well into the 80s for most areas. As of 2 PM, a backdoor cold front, enhanced by the cool waters of Lake Michigan, was located near Freeport, IL where the temperature was 79 F and the wind was out of the north. Further east, toward Chicago and Milwaukee, temperatures were only in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Late Afternoon and Tonight A cold front moving in from the ENE off a high pressure system over Ontario will cause winds to quickly shift from the WNW to the E late this afternoon and evening. Low-level convergence and daytime heating into the mid to upper 80s may be enough to develop isolated showers and thunderstorms in a NW to SE band through the central portion of the forecast area. Recent HRRR runs continue to develop pulse type showers and storms between roughly 4-7 PM. The 3km NAM is less aggressive on coverage and intensity. Thinking many locations will remain dry through the evening due to the expected low areal coverage, so will stick with the slight precipitation chances. Overnight, the backdoor cold front will push all the way through the CWA, dropping temperatures into the 50s for most areas. It`s a good night to open your windows to let the cool, drier air in. Wednesday Continued warm with increasing humidity late in the day. We`ll have a big temperature gradient from mid 70s far NE to 90 F far southwest, and there are chances for showers and storms. However, the placement of the low-level jet, 0-1 km convergence max, and instability or theta-e gradient all favor the most organized convection to be northwest and west of the forecast area. Hi-res CAMs generally support this idea, depicting decaying showers and storms into the NW forecast area during the afternoon. And a focus for new development over central or north-central Iowa Wednesday evening. If any storms hold together long enough to reach the western and northern CWA, scattered strong wind gusts would be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has this aforementioned area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The 12Z NAM12 and NSSL are most aggressive on rapid moisture return and increase of surface-based CAPE in the western and northwestern CWA. So we`ll have to continue to watch for storms or an MCS impacting parts of the forecast area during the afternoon/evening. Uttech .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Thursday On A quasi-stationary front will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evenings into early next week. Exact placement and areal coverage of storms will depend on the location of the front, which is strongly influenced by previous day convection, and on the degree of instability attained. Right now, some of the hi-res models are developing storms south of I-80 Thursday afternoon into Thursday night downstream of a shortwave trough. A few of these could become strong. For Friday into early next week, anticipate above average temperatures and increasing humidity (dewpoints around 70 F, potentially higher) with periodic chances for showers and storms. It`s going to feel like muggy summer weather through at least Monday! Uttech && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 A backdoor cold front will continue to move southwest across eastern Iowa this evening. An isolated shower is possible along that boundary as it pushes west this evening, but so far, as expected, the coverage is extremely isolated, and thus, it is not included in the TAF forecasts. In addition, the activity should diminish along that boundary by mid evening, with dry conditions in all areas after 02Z. Northeast to east winds will blow dry air over the region overnight, with around 10 kts expected to become southeasterly after sunrise Wednesday. VFR / clear conditions will prevail through the period with good visibility. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Uttech SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Uttech AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1034 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show yesterday`s cold front stretching from northern Illinois to eastern North Dakota early this afternoon. Other than scattered clouds near the Lake due to light onshore flow, the rest of the region is enjoying mostly sunny conditions. Looking upstream, a thunderstorm complex fizzled over eastern North Dakota by late morning, leaving only scattered mid-clouds heading towards the western Great Lakes. However, as thunderstorms refire over North Dakota and track towards the region, forecast concerns revolve around thunderstorm chances late tonight into Wednesday. Tonight...High pressure will remain in charge across the region through the evening and into the overnight, and result in mainly clear skies and light winds. Clouds will increase late tonight, when a thunderstorm complex moving southeast over Minnesota draws closer to north-central WI. Left a small chance of thunderstorms in the forecast after 5 am. Until this time, the good radiational cooling conditions will allow for temps to fall into the lower 40s over the far north. Adjusted min temps down a couple degrees in the cold spots where temps fell into the 30s last nite. Lows in the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. Wednesday...As the low level jet veers over northwest Wisconsin during the morning, the thunderstorm complex is expected to turn to the southeast and track over north-central and/or central WI. Models disagree somewhat where this turn will occur, which will impact which locations have better chances of storms. Will therefore just broadbrush areas in the I-39/highway 51 corridor with the highest precip chances. However, models do insist on weakening the complex by mid morning through midday with the diminishing low level jet. As the complex arrives, progged soundings indicate some elevated instability, though not much more than 200-400 j/kg. This will limit the severe threat, though with increasing winds aloft, not out of the question that a few storms could generate small hail and gusty straight line winds, especially as diurnal heating ramps up. Once the complex diminishes/exits, should see partial clearing take place in the afternoon with highs returning to the low and mid 70s. .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Models remain consistent with the overall mean flow from an upper trough over the West Coast, a modest upper ridge over the central U.S. and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Several upper- level disturbances are expected to top the ridge and slide southeast into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes during the Thursday-Saturday time frame, bringing a chance of showers/ thunderstorms to the area. The ridge briefly strengthens and shifts to the east early next week before the western upper trough moves east and flattens the ridge by next Tuesday. This would bring our next chance for precipitation. Temperatures still appear to be close to normal through the extended forecast. Chance for showers/thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday evening as the cold front sweeps across the forecast area. Based on the latest timing of the frontal passage, any precipitation over north-central WI could already be moving out, thus have removed pops from there. High pressure is forecast to build south into the western Great Lakes region later Wednesday night, thus decreasing clouds across the north, with rain ending over central/ east-central WI. Have lowered temperatures a bit north due to the clearing skies/light winds and now have readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s north, middle to upper 50s south. A nice day still on tap for Thursday with the high pressure over the Great Lakes providing for mostly sunny skies and a light east-northeast wind. Max temperatures to range from the middle to upper 60s near Lake MI, mainly in the 75-80 degree range elsewhere. The high pressure does shift east Thursday night, just as a shortwave tops the upper ridge and interacts with the old cold front that will have stalled over northern IL. Anticipate another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop with the northern periphery of this precipitation to approach central WI after midnight. May need to keep a minimal pop just in case this rain band comes farther north than the 12Z models suggest. Otherwise, look for clouds to increase from south to north with min temperatures to range from the middle to upper 40s far northeast WI, to the middle to upper 50s south. The forecast is a bit more uncertain headed into Friday, mainly with the location of the next disturbance. Southern parts of the forecast area may still be dealing with the first disturbance into Friday morning before having to deal with disturbance #2. The 12Z model output now suggests a slower movement with the second ripple, thus Friday afternoon may see dry conditions. Tough call here, but prefer to be optimistic and tone down pops for Friday afternoon. Max temperatures to be in the middle to upper 60s near Lake MI, middle to upper 70s farther inland. Model uncertainty carries over into the Friday night/Saturday time frame as there is disagreement concerning the timing/strength of this next disturbance. The latest model tendency is to weaken this system as it approaches WI and fights a dry east wind into WI from Canadian high pressure near Hudson Bay. May need to temper pops again, especially if this drier air wins out. Max temperatures on Saturday are expected to be similar to Friday, or near normal. The battle lines between showers/thunderstorms from additional disturbances sliding southeast from the Upper MS Valley to the southern sections of the Great Lakes versus a dry influx of air from the high pressure continues Sunday and Monday. Models are now second-guessing the amount of dry air with some models trying to send showers/thunderstorms into parts of northeast WI Sunday night and Monday. Due to low confidence and such a fine line between no precipitation and a brief deluge, have followed the consensus solution which only brings slight chance pops to central/north- central and east-central WI. Temperatures should be at or slightly above normal for both Sunday and Monday. By next Monday night/Tuesday, the northern edge of the upper ridge to be squashed due to the western CONUS upper trough moving east across the northern tier of states. Anticipate at least a chance of showers/thunderstorms for later Monday night into Tuesday as this feature to reach the western Great Lakes. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Good flying conditions are expected for the first part of the TAF period, with just some high and middle clouds streaming across the area from time to time. The main forecast issue continues to be the eventual evolution of convection over the northern Plains. It`s still unclear how this will affect the area tomorrow, so will stick with the same plan as in the 00Z TAFs. That is, having the weakening remnants of an MCS cross about the southwest half of the forecast area from mid-late morning Wednesday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......AK AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .UPDATE... Aviation sections updated && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to parts of central Indiana into this evening. High pressure will then bring dry weather Wednesday. For Thursday into next week, some upper level disturbances along with a front will keep chances for rain around for much of the area. After a cooler day Wednesday, temperatures will then be above normal into next week. && .NEAR TERM /Overnight/... Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Surface analysis showed a weak boundary in place from near LAF to IND and southeast to Greensburg. Radar shows diurnal showers and storms along this boundary drifting SE within the flow aloft along with a weakening trend. Cool North winds were found in the wake of the boundary along with dew points in the dry 40s. HRRR suggests the dissipation of the ongoing precipitation. Furthermore...forecast soundings suggest dry air intruding the column overnight. Thus given the diurnal nature of the showers and storms along with the arrival of dry air across the area...a trend toward a dry forecast seems reasonable. Trended overnight lows at or below the forecast builder blends given the clearing skies and the arrival of air. && .SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/ Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. High pressure and upper ridging will keep the area dry through Thursday morning. Some upper energy will rotate around the upper ridge at times Thursday afternoon into Friday, and a front will move into northern Indiana. Models are struggling with how far south the front gets as well as where thunderstorms riding around the ridge will end up. Some models appear to be suffering from convective feedback issues as well. Thus confidence is low in any PoPs Thursday afternoon and beyond. With that in mind for the most part kept the model initialization`s PoPs. However these may be a bit high if the ridge is stronger and the front remains farther north. Went a little warmer than the model blend for high temperatures Wednesday given the dry ground conditions around the area. Otherwise stayed with the blend given the uncertainties in rain chances and coverage later in the period. && .LONG TERM /Friday Night Through Tuesday/... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 The extended period begins with a weak frontal boundary just north of the forecast area. This front then slides south into central Indiana on Saturday and remains in or near the region through Tuesday. Couple this lingering, weak front with a series of upper level waves traversing the region...and you have the recipe for shower and thunderstorm chances each day during the extended timeframe. There remains low confidence in timing and location of these showers and storms. Thus, decided to stick close to the regional blended initialization concerning this convective activity. The above normal temperatures will continue to persist during this extended period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 060300Z Tafs/... VFR Conditions will continue. TSRA/SHRA continue to diminish toward nil. Mid level clouds are also expected to depart win the wake of the weak front sagging southward across the state. /Discussion for the 060000Z Tafs/... Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period. Diurnal showers and isolated storms northeast of the TAF sites are expected to continue to drift SE of the Taf Sites. Any lingering convection is expected to diminish and deteriorate as heating is lost. Forecast soundings and time height sections continue to show a dry column tonight and Wednesday with minimal forcing available. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to build across the area. No Cu will be expected on Wednesday as forecast soundings show unreachable convective temperatures. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...Puma SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MRD AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1008 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .UPDATE... The mini-MCS is moving through the southern Rolling Plains and should be out of our forecast area before midnight. The last few runs of the HRRR show some isolated showers developing across the southwest South Plains after midnight. Can`t rule this out but have not included this in the forecast, and we also mixed the mention of t-storms across the Rolling Plains after midnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/ AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Included a TEMPO at LBB until 02Z for gusty winds with a thunderstorm over southwest Lubbock. Southeasterly winds will become more southerly around 10-15 kts after 15Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/ DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge extends from Chihuahua to Colorado thence NNEWRD into Manitoba and beyond. This feature will slowly drift eastward becoming more squarely planted across West Texas tomorrow with high pressure nearly overhead into the weekend. By Saturday night, a potent upper trough will pivot about a low pressure center west of the BC coast in a negatively tilted fashion making its point of closes approach late Sunday evening. This will compress to the high southward perhaps temporarily giving the mid level flow a bit of a WSWRLY component before the ridge builds back in early next week. For today, thunderstorm activity should be relegated to the areas east of the Caprock Escarpment and favoring areas up toward Childress. A number of solutions depict convection moving out of the eastern Panhandle though mid-day satellite imagery shows weak surface gradients and no clouds across that part of the state. Any activity which manages to get going in our area should move southeast (supercells more southerly). Initially, the available storm moisture is most favorable about 12kft. Given available instability, golf ball hail and wind to 70mph appear to be the most likely threat. That said, some storm-scale airmass modification could push hail sizes higher. Into Wednesday and Thursday, overall conditions do not appear terribly favorable for convective initiation though a few scattered storms are possible with areas out east having the best shot for storms once again. Thereafter, diurnal convection will likely be influenced by the previous day`s activity and so we have broadbrushed POPs more liberally in the latter extended. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
944 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Dry conditions are anticipated to continue into the evening with temperatures beginning to cool from daytime highs in the mid 70s in West Central WI to 90s in Southwestern MN. Meanwhile, convection forced by a shortwave trough and surface boundary over the Dakotas is expected to evolve into a MCS and progress eastward to the MN border near midnight. High resolution models are in decent agreement with the propagation speed and direction with the MCS continuing east-southeastward through Central MN. The best chance for severe weather will be in West Central MN where the MCS will likely still be organized and there is the most MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg through 9Z. While there will be stabilization in the boundary layer with increasing CIN through the overnight hours, there is still potential for elevated convective activity with severe wind and hail in East Central and South Central MN. A 25-30 kt low- level jet will help enhance moisture and shear with bulk shear values expected to remain near 35-45 kts overnight. The convective activity will likely become less organized near sunrise but thunderstorm activity is expected to continue into West Central WI and Southeastern MN. Cloud cover over Southern MN due to the morning convection decreases the chances for re-development of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. There is still 20-30 percent Pops in the forecast as there is some uncertainty with the evolution of the MCS and surface boundary. Recent model trends indicate that convection will most likely fire along and south of the MN/IA border Wednesday afternoon and leave the majority of the CWA dry. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 High pressure will allow for mostly dry conditions on Thursday, however the GFS indicates a resurgence of the surface boundary that may bring chances for precipitation to Southern MN Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, the next chance for convective activity will be Friday into Saturday with another shortwave trough. Sunday and Monday are trending to be dry with upper-level ridging and surface high pressure. Another upper-level trough is expected to bring better precipitation chances late Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise, the long-term looks mild with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Convection is well underway in western South Dakota, and is starting to get going in North Dakota. Would expect the HRRR and HopWRF to get a reasonable handle on things with the 03Z and 06Z runs, and output from earlier runs still looks fairly reasonable. So, at this point kept close to the going forecasts, which bring things across the CWA from around 07Z through 15Z or so. Once things get closer the timing, ceilings, and visibilities should be able to be pinned down a bit better, but overall trends looks similar to previous expectations. KMSP...Main uncertainty is with what the eventual ceilings and visibilities will be, which will depend on exactly where the strongest remaining portion of the MCSs track. Timing could also differ from +/- 2 hours from current estimate. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thursday...VFR. East wind around 5 kt. Thursday night...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 5 to 15 kt. Friday...VFR. Southeast wind 5 to 10 kt. Friday night...MVFR possible late with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind around 10 kt. Saturday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Southeast wind 5 to 10 kt becoming east. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...AMK LONG TERM...AMK AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
952 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .UPDATE... Increased POPs across the Big Country and Heartland overnight. && .DISCUSSION... An area of showers and thunderstorms continues southeast across Northwest Texas this evening. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF guidance are in fairly good agreement and brings the convection south across the Big Country by late evening and across portions of the Heartland after midnight. Increased POPs to 30 and 40 percent across this area for the rest of tonight. Could see a strong storm or two capable of producing marginally severe wind gusts and some hail given bulk shear around 30 knots and MLCAPES 1000 to 1500 J/Kg. Also made some changes to sky cover and adjusted temps and dewpoints to account for trends for the rest of the overnight period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions are expected to persist across all of terminals for the reminder of the TAF period. However, a few scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Big Country on Tuesday evening and night. Thus VCTS has been added to the TAF until 7Z for KABI only. Otherwise, gusty conditions will likely persist across all terminals late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/ DISCUSSION... Temperatures have risen back into the mid 90s to 100 degrees across the area this afternoon as upper ridging centered over northern Mexico builds back into West Central Texas. Short range guidance and CAM`s continue to indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across northwest Texas later this evening and drifting southeastward in the northwesterly flow aloft. Thus will maintain a chance showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight mainly across the Big Country. A few of these storms could be on the strong side with damaging winds the primary threat. Otherwise, the upper ridge strengthens across the region on Wednesday with temperatures soaring into the triple digits area wide. Have held off a heat advisory with this forecast package as temperatures may remain just at or below criteria. Models continue to indicate the ridge weakening by this weekend and going into next week which would bring a respite from the 100 degree temperatures. Will continue to monitor model guidance for any disturbances that may impact the region through next week...but chance of PoP`s look on the low side throgh the extended. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 74 101 75 100 / 30 10 0 10 San Angelo 74 103 75 102 / 10 10 10 10 Junction 73 101 73 100 / 10 5 0 5 Brownwood 73 98 73 97 / 30 5 5 10 Sweetwater 74 103 74 101 / 30 10 5 10 Ozona 72 101 74 98 / 10 10 5 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
651 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .UPDATE (Overnight into Wednesday)... 23Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows an amplified mid/upper level pattern over much of the CONUS, consisting of deep layer ridging from the Mexican plateau northward over the eastern Rockies and central Plains, and downstream deep layer troughing over the eastern states. Most important to our forecast across west- central and southwest Florida is a "ragged" shortwave trough rotating through the southern periphery of this eastern trough. The shortwave is currently over the north- central/NE Gulf coast and will make sluggish progress south and southeastward overnight/Wednesday morning toward our region. At the surface, the amplified pattern into the eastern CONUS has suppressed the subtropical ridge well to the south, with its axis currently running over Cuba. The ridge in this position is providing a low level SW/W flow pattern across the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL peninsula...and this pattern is only being enhanced by the deeper layer flow around the trough to our north. Westerly flow like this in the summer, within the absence of synoptic support for lift, pushes the west-coast seabreeze quickly inland and usually results in the majority of the diurnal storm activity exiting toward the I-95 corridor by late in the day. This expected progression has occurred today, with the few showers we did see earlier in the day now heading off the east coast of the state. The remainder of the evening looks mainly rain- free and muggy in the wake of these earlier showers. Another thing that westerly flow is favored to produce during the summer, even in the absence of synoptic forcing, is late night/morning showers over the eastern Gulf, that migrate onshore toward dawn. This pattern can usually be expected once the water temperatures reach the levels we are currently seeing. The only problem with later tonight and Wednesday, is that the approaching shortwave is going to give us that synoptic forcing for ascent as well. Therefore, a low level pattern, already favorable for scattered showers, is likely to support numerous showers (even a few rumbles of thunder) over the eastern Gulf... and eventually migrating onshore along the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay region. Further south, down toward Fort Myers, the overall synoptic forcing from the shortwave will not be as great, however, the easterly flow can still be expected to favor some passing scattered type showers by mid/late morning. This is how it look right now based on the ensemble model packages, however, will monitor closely overnight, as any southward trend in the trough axis, or missed subtle shortwave energy over the central Gulf in the model analysis could result in a more aggressive shower complex moving into the Sun Coast south of Sarasota. So, those with outdoor work plans, recreation, or just a morning commute can anticipate passing showers during the morning/midday hours. A steady rainfall is not anticipated, as the energy aloft is not very organized and will be characterized by "pieces of passing energy". Each passing lobe of energy provides a brief round of Pva and associated lift, and hence rounds of showers. The atmosphere is progged to become quite moist, with PWs region-wide approaching 2" early Wednesday, which is likely to support some localized heavy downpours. On the other hand, the moist and generally anomalous warm column will keep frequent lighting and strong storm potential limited. The second half of the day develops a complex deep layer pattern. The upper level support will still be in place, but a lot will depend on the amount of showers/clouds and slowing of diurnal cooling we experience in different locations through the morning. Any sea- breeze development would help to decrease coverage in showers near the coast for the afternoon/evening, as it moved inland, and lower level subsidence spread onshore. However, if we keep temps down enough and this development is very feeble, or does not occur, then the threat for more than scattered showers might hang in there for much of the day. && .AVIATION (06/00Z through 07/00Z)... VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours across west-central and southwest Florida. Westerly flow pattern has pushed most showers/storms will inland from the terminals...and will hold through first six hours of TAF period. The approach of a disturbance later tonight and Wednesday morning brings increasing coverage of showers/isolated thunder off the Gulf into the Nature Coast and the Tampa Bay/I-4 corridor terminals. Expect periods of MVFR cigs/vis with these showers moving ashore. Fort Myers terminals to experience less coverage of showers, with a later morning start any rain potential. Greatest potential for morning restrictions will exist north of KPGD. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 241 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight - Wednesday)... Mid/upper level ridging from Mexico extending northeast into the Plains will maintain upper level troughing over the eastern U.S. and Florida through the period. At the surface a weakening frontal boundary now across the Nature Coast this afternoon will sink a bit further south before stalling out across the central peninsula tonight into Wednesday. Drier air north of front will keep rain out of the forecast across the Nature Coast the remainder of the afternoon while scattered showers and storms will be possible across central and southern zones where the best moisture and instability will reside. During later tonight a short wave trough will approach from the west and will move across the north central peninsula on Wednesday. This feature combined with the stalled front and high moisture (PW`s increasing to around 1.8 inches) will help to increase chances for showers and storms and the possibility of some locally heavy rain across forecast area later tonight into Wednesday with the highest pops (XX to XX percent) expected across central and southern zones in the vicinity of the front. It will remain warm and quite muggy with lows tonight in the mid 70s over inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit lower than today given the expected increase in clouds and rain chances with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. LONG TERM (Wednesday night - Tuesday)... Surface high pressure will be suppressed south to across Cuba through the rest of the week as an upper trough parks over the eastern seaboard and down across FL with weak surface low pressure/stalled frontal boundaries remaining in place across the state. The upper trough finally kicks out Friday, but leaves weak upper troughing over the state as weak surface high pressure builds back across the area. This will then hold across the area through next Tuesday. Moisture in place across the area increases a bit for the weekend, with isolated to scattered showers and storms through the end of the week becoming more scattered to numerous for the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the period, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s. MARINE... Surface high pressure to the south and a trough of low pressure to the north will continue to support a westerly wind flow in the 10 to 15 knot range along with seas of 2 to 4 feet over the Gulf waters tonight through Thursday. During Friday and into the weekend the high to the south will build north across the south central peninsula with lighter winds with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. Higher winds and seas will be possible in the vicinity of scattered showers and thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are anticipated through the period. FIRE WEATHER... Ample moisture and increasing rain chances will keep humidity values well above critical levels through the end of the week with no fire weather hazards expected. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 77 86 75 86 / 50 70 40 40 FMY 77 88 74 88 / 30 40 30 30 GIF 74 87 71 87 / 40 70 30 60 SRQ 78 85 76 84 / 40 70 40 40 BKV 74 86 71 87 / 60 70 40 50 SPG 78 84 76 85 / 50 70 40 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Mroczka Previous Discussion...McMichael/Hubbard