Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/06/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1033 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers are possible overnight especially
north and west of the Capital Region, as disturbances rotate around an upper
level low. Temperatures will continue to be below normal through Wednesday.
Drying conditions with moderating temperatures are expected by
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1033 PM EDT... An upper level low is moving towards the
Gulf of St Lawrence at 0230 UTC. Multiple impulses continue to
pivot around the low in the cyclonic flow. Isolated to scattered
showers are persisting north and west of the Tri Cities. Some
light amounts have been noted north of Albany. We retooled the
POPs based on the radar and 3-km HRRR trends. The rain showers
should diminish after 06Z.
Although there will be some breaks across southern areas, skies
should stay fairly overcast through the overnight hours. Lows will
generally be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
On Wednesday, the upper level low will continue to weaken and move
away from the region, as it heads across Atlantic Canada. Still
cannot totally rule out a brief morning shower or sprinkle
(especially for the high terrain), otherwise, it looks fairly dry
for Wednesday with clouds breaking for some afternoon sun. Temps
aloft will still be on the cooler side, so it will be another below
normal day, but still somewhat milder than the last few days. Highs
look to reach into the 60s everywhere, with mid to upper 60s for
valley areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and cool conditions are expected Wednesday night, as an
area of surface high pressure builds east centered over the mid
Atlantic region. Generally dry weather should prevail Thursday
into Friday with a moderating trend in temperatures. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Thursday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with lows Thursday
night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs on Friday will be in
the upper 60s to near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with high pressure over the region
moving eastward, as a wave of low pressure approaches from the Upper
Midwest/western Great Lakes Region. Clouds will increase from the
south and west Friday night, as some over running rainfall/showers
will impact locations south and west of the Capital Region towards
daybreak Saturday based on some of the medium range deterministic
guidance and the ensembles. Lows FRI night will be in the upper 40s
to upper 50s.
Saturday-Saturday night...A short-wave in the west to northwest flow
aloft combined with the low pressure system and cold front dropping
south and east will yield a chance of showers for most of the region
and a slight chance of thunderstorms especially south of Albany. It
is difficult to determine if any portion of the forecast area gets
into a warm sector, so any convection looks to be elevated at this
point with some locally heavy rainfall, as PWATS may slightly rise
above normal. Highs on Saturday will generally be in the mid and
upper 70s over the hills and in the valley areas, and mid 60s to
lower 70s over the mtns. Lows will generally be in the 50s with some
upper 40s in the Adirondack Park.
Sunday-Sunday night...An upper level disturbance may produce some
sprinkles or a slight to low chance of showers in the cyclonic flow
aloft. It will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and cool to close
the weekend with highs a little below normal in the mid 60s to mid
70s across the region. High pressure ridges south and east from
James Bay with clearing skies and cool conditions with lows in the
40s to mid 50s.
Monday-Tuesday...Fair and dry weather continues with the cool
Canadian air mass over the Northeast. Temps will be slightly below
normal to normal for mid-June with comfortable humidity levels, as
PWATS will be 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal according to
the latest GEFS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper low moving towards the Gulf of St Lawrence this evening
will keep a threat of isolated to scattered showers over
portions of the area tonight into tomorrow, as disturbances
rotating around the low impact the region.
In the cyclonic flow at the sfc and aloft, the best chance of
showers will be from KALB northward tonight. VFR cigs early this
evening in the 4-6 kft AGL range will lower into the lower VFR
and high MVFR range from KALB/KPSF northward. KPOU will likely
stay VFR most of the night. Some scattered showers for KALB/KGFL
may yield MVFR vsbys briefly. Cigs will generally be 1.5 kft AGL
to 3.5 kft AGL by daybreak.
Cigs will improve to VFR levels by the late morning at all the
TAF sites. Expect cigs to be in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range, and to
become scattered to broken from KALB south and east by the mid
to late pm. An isolated shower or sprinkle is possible, and the
probability is low, so we left mention out of the TAFs for now.
N to NW winds of 5-12 kts early this evening will become light
from the north at 6 kts or less. The winds will be light
tomorrow from the north to east at 6 kts or less.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night to Friday night: No Operational Impact.
NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
More showers are possible tonight into Wednesday, as disturbances
rotate around an upper level low. Temperatures will continue to
be below normal through Wednesday. Drying conditions with
moderating temperatures are expected by Thursday.
Relative humidity values will recover to 80 to 100 percent
tonight, drop to 45 to 65 percent on Wednesday, recover to 85
to 100 percent Wednesday night, and drop to 45 to 60 percent on
Thursday.
Winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight, north around 5
mph on Wednesday, west around 5 mph Wednesday night, and west
to southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers through Wednesday will result in an additional tenth of
an inch or less in most areas. Coverage will be mainly scattered.
Mainly dry conditions are then expected Wednesday night through
Friday.
There is the potential for some widespread rainfall over the
weekend, although the details of placement and timing are very
uncertain at this time.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
925 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Severe t-storm watch out through early Wed morning. Overall
besides the watch no big changes to our thinking for tonight.
UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
No major deviations from the previous thinking for tonight. We`re
still on track for scattered severe storms to develop this evening,
roughly between 01-03 UTC across south central ND. Next forecast
update will be for severe watch issuance, which SPC indicated if
issued would happen between 01-02 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Tonight`s severe weather threat over south central North Dakota
and the southern James River Valley highlights the short term.
An upper level ridge will move across the state through the
afternoon as a northern stream shortwave approaches from the
west. While most of the energy from this wave will stay north of
the international border, two separate pieces of energy are
evident on water vapor and visible satellite imagery. One impulse
was associated with some scattered convection across eastern
Montana, and a stronger impulse was located over eastern Wyoming.
At the surface, a weak cold front was extending south southwest
from low pressure located over central Manitoba to near Hettinger.
Showers from the impulse over Montana will make their way into
western North Dakota through the afternoon, moving northeast.
Ahead of the cold front, the warm sector will likely remain capped
through the afternoon, with very warm surface temperatures
(reaching into the low to mid 90s across south central and the
James River Valley), neutral to slightly rising heights, and very
little large scale forcing. Additionally, RAP soundings suggest a
modest, yet deep elevated mixed layer over KJMS and KBIS through
the afternoon.
With very little cloud cover across the south central and
southeast, temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s, and
dewpoints in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, the atmosphere will
become moderately unstable with MLCAPE values reaching as high as
1500 to 2500 J/kg. By 00z the impulse moving northeast out of
Wyoming will have accelerated across western South Dakota,
bringing with it height falls. This evening, the cold front will
likely be draped from near Carrington, southwest to Bismarck, to
near Elgin.
As heights begin to fall and we cool aloft, both waves will allow
convection to initiate along or behind the cold front in the 00z
to 03z time frame. High Resolution guidance is in relatively good
agreement with regards to convective initiation timing and general
location. The first storms are likely to develop near Carrington
where capping will be at a relative minimum, before building
southwest along the rest of the frontal zone. When storms do
initiate, they are likely to become rapidly severe with plenty of
MUCAPE and deep layer shear ranging from 35 to 45 knots. A
consistent signal has been present among SPC HREF ensemble
members regarding strong updraft helicity with these storms,
painting neighborhood probabilities of UH greater than 100 m2/s2
in the 50 to 70 percent range, generally in the window from 02z to
05z. This signal suggests that any storms that do form will
exhibit strong supercell characteristics. Low level wind fields to
not appear very favorable for tornadic development, but strong
rotating updrafts will be favorable for the production of very
large hail, possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter, damaging
wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. Also of note is that several
convection allowing models have been consistently showing UH
values greater than 200 m2/s2, including both the operational and
the experimental HRRR cores. Convection should begin to diminish
in intensity around 06z, but showers and thunderstorms may linger
across the south through 09z to 11z.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Ridging builds back in again on Wednesday with pleasant weather
and highs in the 70s with some lower 80s across the south. Another
impulse approaches late Thursday, bringing the next chance for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.
SPC has southwest North Dakota in a slight risk for Day 3. A
deepening longwave trough and stronger wave will approach the
state on Sunday and will bring our next chance of widespread
showers and thunderstorms late Sunday and into Monday. This will
also be a system we will have to monitor for severe weather
potential as details continue to come into view, as the pattern
has consistently been advertised on the GFS and ECMWF. 00z CIPS
analog guidance was also showing a signal for some severe weather
during this time period. Temperatures will generally remain in the
70s and 80s through the extended time period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Showers and thunderstorm will develop across south central and
southeastern ND this evening, possibly impacting both KBIS and
KJMS. Strong to severe storms will be possible at both terminals
from 02-06Z. Winds associated with any storms will be gusty and
very erratic. Overall VFR conditions are expected through the
period, though any strong thunderstorm will likely produce IFR or
lower conditions for a period this evening/early Wed morning,
again for KJMS and KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
856 PM MDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Thunderstorm activity moved out of the area a little quicker than
the forecast had. Made some minor tweaks to the PoPs and weather
to remove all but a slight chance in southeastern Montana. Rest of
the forecast looks good. Reimer
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...
Unstable SW flow aloft over our region today. However, the
post-frontal environment is relatively cool in the lower levels
and has resulted in a fairly strong cap across the plains. We have
seen a few cells develop over our area, but these have produced
little if any precip at the ground as convection remains elevated.
That said...the models do suggest the cap will weaken by 5 PM
today. This could be a little too aggressive given the cloud cover
we currently have in the west. Still, the HRRR is sticking with
some decent deeper convection late today and through the evening
moving west to east across the CWA as a short wave moves across.
Its mainly focused from southern Yellowstone to eastern Powder
River County. Areas to the southeast of Billings have received
more sunshine this afternoon, so even if its weaker convection
west of Billings, it may strengthen as it moves east with the
short wave energy track. We have adjusted evening and overnight
PoP`s accordingly. We cannot rule out an isolated severe storm
with the best chance south and east of Billings.
For Wednesday, increasing southwest flow aloft continues to send
several disturbances across our CWA. PWATS continue to be high and
we should see some decent diurnal heating at midday leading to
strong destabilization. Shear is not as strong as todays, but we
could see an isolated severe (hail and wind) and some heavy
rainers.
A pretty strong short wave moves over the region Thursday leading
to strong destabilization and steep lapse rates. PWATS continue
to be 0.75-1.00 inches. So expect torrential rain for the latter
part of Thursday with some storms. We feel the greatest threat of
severe hail is in the southeast corner of the state where shear
is progged to be around or over 40 kts. BT
.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...
Ensembles showed some uncertainty with the pattern beginning on
Sunday. There were a few QPF differences between the GFS and ECMWF
during the period, but overall the two models were in decent
agreement.
Friday looked mostly dry with just some convection over the
mountains, as energy moves through a weak upper ridge over the
area. Had some thunder in the forecast W of KBIL Fri. evening. SW
flow overtakes the area Saturday, ahead of a strong Pacific
trough. Lack of energy in the flow supported a dry forecast for
now. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees in several locations.
The trough swings into the region on Sunday, bringing isolated
thunderstorms. A strong cold front will cross the area, ushering
in windy conditions. The trough then swings NE, leaving the area
under cyclonic flow for Monday. Windy conditions will continue
Sun. evening. Monday through Tuesday looked dry as the
trough/upper low pulls N away from the region. Temperatures will
be in the 70s behind the cold front for late in the period. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail late tonight through Wednesday morning, then
thunderstorms will develop and move off of the mountains in the
afternoon. These thunderstorm could produce localized MVFR to IFR
conditions. Arthur/Reimer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/081 056/082 057/082 058/090 059/079 050/073 051/078
22/T 34/T 21/B 21/U 01/U 10/U 11/U
LVM 047/078 050/080 050/080 049/088 050/072 044/068 044/075
22/T 34/T 31/B 20/U 02/T 21/B 11/U
HDN 054/083 057/084 057/084 058/090 059/082 049/076 049/079
41/B 45/T 21/U 21/U 01/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 054/082 061/083 060/083 060/088 063/083 055/076 053/079
30/U 45/T 41/B 11/U 11/U 10/B 01/U
4BQ 054/081 058/084 059/083 059/088 063/087 053/077 052/080
40/U 44/T 41/U 11/U 11/U 10/U 11/U
BHK 051/079 057/078 057/081 056/085 061/084 052/076 048/079
20/U 43/T 51/B 11/U 11/N 10/B 01/U
SHR 051/080 053/082 054/080 054/087 055/082 046/074 046/076
22/T 53/T 22/T 21/U 02/T 10/U 01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
948 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop southward toward the forecast area
on Wednesday and then settle across north Florida by Friday
morning. Atlantic high pressure will then prevail offshore
through the weekend. A backdoor cold front should approach the
region early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A weak and sheared vort lobe and associated upper jet will pull
through most if not all the forecast area before dawn,
with broad and very weak cyclonic flow prevails at the surface.
It`ll take until after midnight before we start to experience
some clearing from W-NW to E-SE of the mostly thick broken to
overcast cirriform clouds, and scattered to locally broken
altocumulus. Based on this transition and latest satellite
trends, we continue to delay any decrease in cloud cover from
the previous forecast. But on the flip side, better clearing
will arrive across Berkeley and Dorchester counties toward dawn,
and it is here where we lowered temps a couple of degrees.
Overall, lows will be in the mid and upper 60s inland from US-17
and lower 70s closer to the coast.
There are still no strong indicators of fog, with the reliable
SREF, NARRE-TL and HRRR all showing little to no chance. Given
that most areas won`t achieve their cross-over temps and their
is extensive cloud cover, we still don`t have any mention of
fog in the forecast. Should any occur, it would be closer to
sunrise, and mainly over the seaward portions of Charleston and
coastal Colleton where the higher dew points were located on
Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night: A mid/upper level trough will be
situated along the Gulf Coast in the morning, and will slowly
sink southward through the day. At the surface, a weak cold
front will start the day north of the forecast area and will
progress southward through the day. However, model soundings
show strong capping from an inversion around 700 mb, as well as
very dry air in the sub-cloud layer. As such, a dry forecast
remains in place. Temperatures should be warmer than Tuesday,
with highs reaching the low 90s away from the coast. Weak
downslope flow will prevail in the morning, before the sea
breeze develops and take over at the coast in the mid/late
afternoon hours. Overnight, there could be isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters with some weak convergence
along the front and near a weak surface low. Overall, should be
a quiet night with lows ranging from the upper 60s inland to
the low 70s at the coast.
Thursday through Friday: Overall, the end of the week looks very
summerlike, with a modest increase in convection chances each day.
For Thursday, soundings show a bit less capping especially for
southeast South Carolina. Isolated showers/thunderstorms will be
possible but the most locations will stay dry. Friday looks a bit
more active thanks to the presence of a weak surface low sitting off
the north Florida coast. This could even include some convective
development late Thursday night and Friday morning for the coastal
waters. Rain chances are in the 20-30 percent chance range and the
severe threat is near zero due to the lack of instability.
Temperatures are expected to top our in the upper 80s to low 90s, or
a few degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A summerlike pattern will persist through much of the weekend as
high pressure prevails offshore and lee troughing occurs inland.
However, models insist mid/upper lvl energy meandering over northern
Florida and Southeast Georgia, suggesting slightly greater coverage
of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon
when temperature and moisture levels indicate greater instability.
High temps should peak in the lower 90s away from the coast each day
while overnight lows remain in the low/mid 70s.
A more pronounced period of showers and thunderstorms should arrive
early next week when a well defined backdoor cold front shifts into
the area Monday through Tuesday. At this time, scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast, some of which could be heavy
rainfall producers as PWATs approach 2.0 inches. The arrival of the
front along with increasing precip coverage should support cooler
temps, peaking in the mid/upper 80s north to near 90 south on
Monday, then low to mid 80s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be
slightly cooler, dipping into the upper 60s inland to lower 70s
closer to the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any chance of light fog for a brief time at KCHS early Wednesday
is too low a probability to show in the TAF, so VFR conditions
will prevail there and at KSAV.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through the
end of the week. However, brief flight restrictions are possible at
both CHS and SAV terminals during afternoon showers/thunderstorms
this weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Generally light SW or W winds will persist, veering a
little further near the coast late as a land breeze develops.
No significant incoming swell will keep seas in the 1 to 2 foot
range.
Wednesday through Sunday: Overall, quiet conditions will prevail
across the local waters through the weekend. Winds will generally
top out around 10 knots, but could surge into the 10-15 knot range
at times. This would be most prevalent along the land/sea interface
during the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will be in the 1-3 ft range
through the period.n 1-3 ft, highest in northern South Carolina
waters near 20 nm away from the coast this weekend.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
624 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Westerly winds, mainly clear skies, and low humidity have allowed
temperatures to warm well into the 80s for most areas. As of 2 PM,
a backdoor cold front, enhanced by the cool waters of Lake
Michigan, was located near Freeport, IL where the temperature was
79 F and the wind was out of the north. Further east, toward
Chicago and Milwaukee, temperatures were only in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Late Afternoon and Tonight
A cold front moving in from the ENE off a high pressure system over
Ontario will cause winds to quickly shift from the WNW to the E
late this afternoon and evening. Low-level convergence and daytime
heating into the mid to upper 80s may be enough to develop
isolated showers and thunderstorms in a NW to SE band through the
central portion of the forecast area. Recent HRRR runs continue
to develop pulse type showers and storms between roughly 4-7 PM.
The 3km NAM is less aggressive on coverage and intensity. Thinking
many locations will remain dry through the evening due to the
expected low areal coverage, so will stick with the slight
precipitation chances.
Overnight, the backdoor cold front will push all the way through the
CWA, dropping temperatures into the 50s for most areas. It`s a
good night to open your windows to let the cool, drier air in.
Wednesday
Continued warm with increasing humidity late in the day. We`ll
have a big temperature gradient from mid 70s far NE to 90 F far
southwest, and there are chances for showers and storms. However,
the placement of the low-level jet, 0-1 km convergence max, and
instability or theta-e gradient all favor the most organized
convection to be northwest and west of the forecast area. Hi-res
CAMs generally support this idea, depicting decaying showers and
storms into the NW forecast area during the afternoon. And a
focus for new development over central or north-central Iowa
Wednesday evening.
If any storms hold together long enough to reach the western and
northern CWA, scattered strong wind gusts would be possible. The
Storm Prediction Center has this aforementioned area in a Marginal
Risk for severe storms.
The 12Z NAM12 and NSSL are most aggressive on rapid moisture
return and increase of surface-based CAPE in the western and
northwestern CWA. So we`ll have to continue to watch for storms or
an MCS impacting parts of the forecast area during the
afternoon/evening. Uttech
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Thursday On
A quasi-stationary front will serve as a focus for thunderstorm
development during the afternoon and evenings into early next
week. Exact placement and areal coverage of storms will depend on
the location of the front, which is strongly influenced by
previous day convection, and on the degree of instability
attained.
Right now, some of the hi-res models are developing storms south
of I-80 Thursday afternoon into Thursday night downstream of a
shortwave trough. A few of these could become strong. For Friday
into early next week, anticipate above average temperatures and
increasing humidity (dewpoints around 70 F, potentially higher)
with periodic chances for showers and storms. It`s going to feel
like muggy summer weather through at least Monday! Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
A backdoor cold front will continue to move southwest across
eastern Iowa this evening. An isolated shower is possible along
that boundary as it pushes west this evening, but so far, as
expected, the coverage is extremely isolated, and thus, it is not
included in the TAF forecasts. In addition, the activity should
diminish along that boundary by mid evening, with dry conditions
in all areas after 02Z. Northeast to east winds will blow dry air
over the region overnight, with around 10 kts expected to become
southeasterly after sunrise Wednesday. VFR / clear conditions will
prevail through the period with good visibility.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1034 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show
yesterday`s cold front stretching from northern Illinois to
eastern North Dakota early this afternoon. Other than scattered
clouds near the Lake due to light onshore flow, the rest of the
region is enjoying mostly sunny conditions. Looking upstream, a
thunderstorm complex fizzled over eastern North Dakota by late
morning, leaving only scattered mid-clouds heading towards the
western Great Lakes. However, as thunderstorms refire over North
Dakota and track towards the region, forecast concerns revolve
around thunderstorm chances late tonight into Wednesday.
Tonight...High pressure will remain in charge across the region
through the evening and into the overnight, and result in mainly
clear skies and light winds. Clouds will increase late tonight,
when a thunderstorm complex moving southeast over Minnesota draws
closer to north-central WI. Left a small chance of thunderstorms
in the forecast after 5 am. Until this time, the good radiational
cooling conditions will allow for temps to fall into the lower 40s
over the far north. Adjusted min temps down a couple degrees in
the cold spots where temps fell into the 30s last nite. Lows in
the mid to upper 40s elsewhere.
Wednesday...As the low level jet veers over northwest Wisconsin
during the morning, the thunderstorm complex is expected to turn
to the southeast and track over north-central and/or central WI.
Models disagree somewhat where this turn will occur, which will
impact which locations have better chances of storms. Will
therefore just broadbrush areas in the I-39/highway 51 corridor
with the highest precip chances. However, models do insist on
weakening the complex by mid morning through midday with the
diminishing low level jet. As the complex arrives, progged
soundings indicate some elevated instability, though not much more
than 200-400 j/kg. This will limit the severe threat, though with
increasing winds aloft, not out of the question that a few storms
could generate small hail and gusty straight line winds,
especially as diurnal heating ramps up. Once the complex
diminishes/exits, should see partial clearing take place in the
afternoon with highs returning to the low and mid 70s.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Models remain consistent with the overall mean flow from an upper
trough over the West Coast, a modest upper ridge over the central
U.S. and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Several upper-
level disturbances are expected to top the ridge and slide
southeast into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes during the
Thursday-Saturday time frame, bringing a chance of showers/
thunderstorms to the area. The ridge briefly strengthens and
shifts to the east early next week before the western upper trough
moves east and flattens the ridge by next Tuesday. This would
bring our next chance for precipitation. Temperatures still appear
to be close to normal through the extended forecast.
Chance for showers/thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday
evening as the cold front sweeps across the forecast area. Based
on the latest timing of the frontal passage, any precipitation
over north-central WI could already be moving out, thus have
removed pops from there. High pressure is forecast to build south
into the western Great Lakes region later Wednesday night, thus
decreasing clouds across the north, with rain ending over central/
east-central WI. Have lowered temperatures a bit north due to the
clearing skies/light winds and now have readings in the upper 40s
to lower 50s north, middle to upper 50s south. A nice day still on
tap for Thursday with the high pressure over the Great Lakes
providing for mostly sunny skies and a light east-northeast wind.
Max temperatures to range from the middle to upper 60s near Lake
MI, mainly in the 75-80 degree range elsewhere.
The high pressure does shift east Thursday night, just as a
shortwave tops the upper ridge and interacts with the old cold
front that will have stalled over northern IL. Anticipate another
round of showers and thunderstorms to develop with the northern
periphery of this precipitation to approach central WI after
midnight. May need to keep a minimal pop just in case this rain
band comes farther north than the 12Z models suggest. Otherwise,
look for clouds to increase from south to north with min
temperatures to range from the middle to upper 40s far northeast
WI, to the middle to upper 50s south. The forecast is a bit more
uncertain headed into Friday, mainly with the location of the
next disturbance. Southern parts of the forecast area may still be
dealing with the first disturbance into Friday morning before
having to deal with disturbance #2. The 12Z model output now
suggests a slower movement with the second ripple, thus Friday
afternoon may see dry conditions. Tough call here, but prefer to
be optimistic and tone down pops for Friday afternoon. Max
temperatures to be in the middle to upper 60s near Lake MI, middle
to upper 70s farther inland.
Model uncertainty carries over into the Friday night/Saturday time
frame as there is disagreement concerning the timing/strength of
this next disturbance. The latest model tendency is to weaken this
system as it approaches WI and fights a dry east wind into WI from
Canadian high pressure near Hudson Bay. May need to temper pops
again, especially if this drier air wins out. Max temperatures on
Saturday are expected to be similar to Friday, or near normal.
The battle lines between showers/thunderstorms from additional
disturbances sliding southeast from the Upper MS Valley to the
southern sections of the Great Lakes versus a dry influx of air
from the high pressure continues Sunday and Monday. Models are now
second-guessing the amount of dry air with some models trying to
send showers/thunderstorms into parts of northeast WI Sunday night
and Monday. Due to low confidence and such a fine line between no
precipitation and a brief deluge, have followed the consensus
solution which only brings slight chance pops to central/north-
central and east-central WI. Temperatures should be at or slightly
above normal for both Sunday and Monday.
By next Monday night/Tuesday, the northern edge of the upper ridge
to be squashed due to the western CONUS upper trough moving east
across the northern tier of states. Anticipate at least a chance
of showers/thunderstorms for later Monday night into Tuesday as
this feature to reach the western Great Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Good flying conditions are expected for the first part of the TAF
period, with just some high and middle clouds streaming across
the area from time to time. The main forecast issue continues to
be the eventual evolution of convection over the northern Plains.
It`s still unclear how this will affect the area tomorrow, so will
stick with the same plan as in the 00Z TAFs. That is, having the
weakening remnants of an MCS cross about the southwest half of the
forecast area from mid-late morning Wednesday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Aviation sections updated
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to parts of
central Indiana into this evening. High pressure will then bring dry
weather Wednesday. For Thursday into next week, some upper level
disturbances along with a front will keep chances for rain around
for much of the area. After a cooler day Wednesday, temperatures
will then be above normal into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Surface analysis showed a weak boundary in place from near LAF to
IND and southeast to Greensburg. Radar shows diurnal showers and
storms along this boundary drifting SE within the flow aloft along
with a weakening trend. Cool North winds were found in the wake
of the boundary along with dew points in the dry 40s.
HRRR suggests the dissipation of the ongoing precipitation.
Furthermore...forecast soundings suggest dry air intruding the
column overnight. Thus given the diurnal nature of the showers
and storms along with the arrival of dry air across the area...a
trend toward a dry forecast seems reasonable.
Trended overnight lows at or below the forecast builder blends
given the clearing skies and the arrival of dry...cool air.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.
High pressure and upper ridging will keep the area dry through
Thursday morning.
Some upper energy will rotate around the upper ridge at times
Thursday afternoon into Friday, and a front will move into northern
Indiana.
Models are struggling with how far south the front gets as well as
where thunderstorms riding around the ridge will end up. Some models
appear to be suffering from convective feedback issues as well.
Thus confidence is low in any PoPs Thursday afternoon and beyond.
With that in mind for the most part kept the model initialization`s
PoPs. However these may be a bit high if the ridge is stronger and
the front remains farther north.
Went a little warmer than the model blend for high temperatures
Wednesday given the dry ground conditions around the area. Otherwise
stayed with the blend given the uncertainties in rain chances and
coverage later in the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday Night Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
The extended period begins with a weak frontal boundary just north
of the forecast area. This front then slides south into central
Indiana on Saturday and remains in or near the region through
Tuesday. Couple this lingering, weak front with a series of upper
level waves traversing the region...and you have the recipe for
shower and thunderstorm chances each day during the extended
timeframe. There remains low confidence in timing and location of
these showers and storms. Thus, decided to stick close to the
regional blended initialization concerning this convective activity.
The above normal temperatures will continue to persist during this
extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 060300Z Tafs/...
VFR Conditions will continue. TSRA/SHRA continue to diminish
toward nil. Mid level clouds are also expected to depart win the
wake of the weak front sagging southward across the state.
/Discussion for the 060000Z Tafs/...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period.
Diurnal showers and isolated storms northeast of the TAF sites
are expected to continue to drift SE of the Taf Sites. Any
lingering convection is expected to diminish and deteriorate as
heating is lost.
Forecast soundings and time height sections continue to show a dry
column tonight and Wednesday with minimal forcing available. High
pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to build across the
area. No Cu will be expected on Wednesday as forecast soundings
show unreachable convective temperatures.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1008 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.UPDATE...
The mini-MCS is moving through the southern Rolling Plains and
should be out of our forecast area before midnight. The last few
runs of the HRRR show some isolated showers developing across the
southwest South Plains after midnight. Can`t rule this out but
have not included this in the forecast, and we also mixed the
mention of t-storms across the Rolling Plains after midnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Included a
TEMPO at LBB until 02Z for gusty winds with a thunderstorm over
southwest Lubbock. Southeasterly winds will become more southerly
around 10-15 kts after 15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/
DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge extends from Chihuahua to Colorado thence
NNEWRD into Manitoba and beyond. This feature will slowly drift
eastward becoming more squarely planted across West Texas tomorrow
with high pressure nearly overhead into the weekend. By Saturday
night, a potent upper trough will pivot about a low pressure center
west of the BC coast in a negatively tilted fashion making its
point of closes approach late Sunday evening. This will compress
to the high southward perhaps temporarily giving the mid level
flow a bit of a WSWRLY component before the ridge builds back in
early next week.
For today, thunderstorm activity should be relegated to the areas
east of the Caprock Escarpment and favoring areas up toward
Childress. A number of solutions depict convection moving out of
the eastern Panhandle though mid-day satellite imagery shows weak
surface gradients and no clouds across that part of the state. Any
activity which manages to get going in our area should move
southeast (supercells more southerly). Initially, the available
storm moisture is most favorable about 12kft. Given available
instability, golf ball hail and wind to 70mph appear to be the
most likely threat. That said, some storm-scale airmass
modification could push hail sizes higher.
Into Wednesday and Thursday, overall conditions do not appear
terribly favorable for convective initiation though a few scattered
storms are possible with areas out east having the best shot for
storms once again. Thereafter, diurnal convection will likely be
influenced by the previous day`s activity and so we have
broadbrushed POPs more liberally in the latter extended.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
944 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Dry conditions are anticipated to continue into the evening with
temperatures beginning to cool from daytime highs in the mid 70s
in West Central WI to 90s in Southwestern MN. Meanwhile, convection
forced by a shortwave trough and surface boundary over the
Dakotas is expected to evolve into a MCS and progress eastward to
the MN border near midnight. High resolution models are in decent
agreement with the propagation speed and direction with the MCS
continuing east-southeastward through Central MN.
The best chance for severe weather will be in West Central MN where
the MCS will likely still be organized and there is the most
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg through 9Z. While there will be
stabilization in the boundary layer with increasing CIN through
the overnight hours, there is still potential for elevated
convective activity with severe wind and hail in East Central and
South Central MN. A 25-30 kt low- level jet will help enhance
moisture and shear with bulk shear values expected to remain near
35-45 kts overnight. The convective activity will likely become
less organized near sunrise but thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue into West Central WI and Southeastern MN.
Cloud cover over Southern MN due to the morning convection
decreases the chances for re-development of strong to severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. There is still 20-30 percent
Pops in the forecast as there is some uncertainty with the
evolution of the MCS and surface boundary. Recent model trends
indicate that convection will most likely fire along and south of
the MN/IA border Wednesday afternoon and leave the majority of the
CWA dry.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
High pressure will allow for mostly dry conditions on Thursday,
however the GFS indicates a resurgence of the surface boundary
that may bring chances for precipitation to Southern MN Thursday
afternoon. Otherwise, the next chance for convective activity will
be Friday into Saturday with another shortwave trough. Sunday and
Monday are trending to be dry with upper-level ridging and surface
high pressure. Another upper-level trough is expected to bring
better precipitation chances late Monday into Tuesday. Otherwise,
the long-term looks mild with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid
80s each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
Convection is well underway in western South Dakota, and is
starting to get going in North Dakota. Would expect the HRRR and
HopWRF to get a reasonable handle on things with the 03Z and 06Z
runs, and output from earlier runs still looks fairly reasonable.
So, at this point kept close to the going forecasts, which bring
things across the CWA from around 07Z through 15Z or so. Once
things get closer the timing, ceilings, and visibilities should be
able to be pinned down a bit better, but overall trends looks
similar to previous expectations.
KMSP...Main uncertainty is with what the eventual ceilings and
visibilities will be, which will depend on exactly where the
strongest remaining portion of the MCSs track. Timing could also
differ from +/- 2 hours from current estimate.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thursday...VFR. East wind around 5 kt.
Thursday night...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southeast wind 5 to 15 kt.
Friday...VFR. Southeast wind 5 to 10 kt.
Friday night...MVFR possible late with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southeast wind around 10 kt.
Saturday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southeast wind 5 to 10 kt becoming east.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...AMK
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
952 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.UPDATE...
Increased POPs across the Big Country and Heartland overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers and thunderstorms continues southeast across
Northwest Texas this evening. Latest HRRR and TTU WRF guidance
are in fairly good agreement and brings the convection south
across the Big Country by late evening and across portions
of the Heartland after midnight. Increased POPs to 30 and 40
percent across this area for the rest of tonight. Could see
a strong storm or two capable of producing marginally severe
wind gusts and some hail given bulk shear around 30 knots and
MLCAPES 1000 to 1500 J/Kg. Also made some changes to sky cover
and adjusted temps and dewpoints to account for trends for the
rest of the overnight period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected to persist across all of terminals for
the reminder of the TAF period. However, a few scattered
thunderstorms are expected across the Big Country on Tuesday
evening and night. Thus VCTS has been added to the TAF until 7Z
for KABI only. Otherwise, gusty conditions will likely persist
across all terminals late Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have risen back into the mid 90s to 100 degrees
across the area this afternoon as upper ridging centered over
northern Mexico builds back into West Central Texas. Short range
guidance and CAM`s continue to indicate scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across northwest Texas later this evening
and drifting southeastward in the northwesterly flow aloft. Thus
will maintain a chance showers and thunderstorms this evening and
overnight mainly across the Big Country. A few of these storms
could be on the strong side with damaging winds the primary
threat. Otherwise, the upper ridge strengthens across the region
on Wednesday with temperatures soaring into the triple digits area
wide. Have held off a heat advisory with this forecast package as
temperatures may remain just at or below criteria. Models continue
to indicate the ridge weakening by this weekend and going into
next week which would bring a respite from the 100 degree
temperatures. Will continue to monitor model guidance for any
disturbances that may impact the region through next week...but
chance of PoP`s look on the low side throgh the extended.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 74 101 75 100 / 30 10 0 10
San Angelo 74 103 75 102 / 10 10 10 10
Junction 73 101 73 100 / 10 5 0 5
Brownwood 73 98 73 97 / 30 5 5 10
Sweetwater 74 103 74 101 / 30 10 5 10
Ozona 72 101 74 98 / 10 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
651 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018
.UPDATE (Overnight into Wednesday)...
23Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows an amplified
mid/upper level pattern over much of the CONUS, consisting
of deep layer ridging from the Mexican plateau northward
over the eastern Rockies and central Plains, and downstream
deep layer troughing over the eastern states. Most important
to our forecast across west- central and southwest Florida
is a "ragged" shortwave trough rotating through the southern
periphery of this eastern trough. The shortwave is
currently over the north- central/NE Gulf coast and will
make sluggish progress south and southeastward
overnight/Wednesday morning toward our region.
At the surface, the amplified pattern into the eastern CONUS
has suppressed the subtropical ridge well to the south, with
its axis currently running over Cuba. The ridge in this
position is providing a low level SW/W flow pattern across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico/FL peninsula...and this pattern
is only being enhanced by the deeper layer flow around the
trough to our north. Westerly flow like this in the summer,
within the absence of synoptic support for lift, pushes the
west-coast seabreeze quickly inland and usually results in
the majority of the diurnal storm activity exiting toward
the I-95 corridor by late in the day. This expected
progression has occurred today, with the few showers we did
see earlier in the day now heading off the east coast of
the state. The remainder of the evening looks mainly rain-
free and muggy in the wake of these earlier showers.
Another thing that westerly flow is favored to produce
during the summer, even in the absence of synoptic forcing, is
late night/morning showers over the eastern Gulf, that
migrate onshore toward dawn. This pattern can usually be
expected once the water temperatures reach the levels we are
currently seeing. The only problem with later tonight and
Wednesday, is that the approaching shortwave is going to
give us that synoptic forcing for ascent as well.
Therefore, a low level pattern, already favorable for
scattered showers, is likely to support numerous showers
(even a few rumbles of thunder) over the eastern Gulf...
and eventually migrating onshore along the Nature Coast and
Tampa Bay region. Further south, down toward Fort Myers, the
overall synoptic forcing from the shortwave will not be as
great, however, the easterly flow can still be expected to
favor some passing scattered type showers by mid/late
morning. This is how it look right now based on the ensemble
model packages, however, will monitor closely overnight, as
any southward trend in the trough axis, or missed subtle
shortwave energy over the central Gulf in the model
analysis could result in a more aggressive shower complex
moving into the Sun Coast south of Sarasota.
So, those with outdoor work plans, recreation, or just a
morning commute can anticipate passing showers during the
morning/midday hours. A steady rainfall is not anticipated,
as the energy aloft is not very organized and will be
characterized by "pieces of passing energy". Each passing
lobe of energy provides a brief round of Pva and associated
lift, and hence rounds of showers. The atmosphere is
progged to become quite moist, with PWs region-wide
approaching 2" early Wednesday, which is likely to support
some localized heavy downpours. On the other hand, the moist
and generally anomalous warm column will keep frequent
lighting and strong storm potential limited.
The second half of the day develops a complex deep layer
pattern. The upper level support will still be in place,
but a lot will depend on the amount of showers/clouds and
slowing of diurnal cooling we experience in different
locations through the morning. Any sea- breeze development
would help to decrease coverage in showers near the coast
for the afternoon/evening, as it moved inland, and lower
level subsidence spread onshore. However, if we keep temps
down enough and this development is very feeble, or does not
occur, then the threat for more than scattered showers
might hang in there for much of the day.
&&
.AVIATION (06/00Z through 07/00Z)...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours across
west-central and southwest Florida. Westerly flow pattern
has pushed most showers/storms will inland from the
terminals...and will hold through first six hours of TAF
period. The approach of a disturbance later tonight and
Wednesday morning brings increasing coverage of
showers/isolated thunder off the Gulf into the Nature Coast
and the Tampa Bay/I-4 corridor terminals. Expect periods of
MVFR cigs/vis with these showers moving ashore. Fort Myers
terminals to experience less coverage of showers, with
a later morning start any rain potential. Greatest
potential for morning restrictions will exist north of KPGD.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 241 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight - Wednesday)...
Mid/upper level ridging from Mexico extending northeast into
the Plains will maintain upper level troughing over the
eastern U.S. and Florida through the period. At the surface
a weakening frontal boundary now across the Nature Coast
this afternoon will sink a bit further south before stalling
out across the central peninsula tonight into Wednesday.
Drier air north of front will keep rain out of the forecast
across the Nature Coast the remainder of the afternoon while
scattered showers and storms will be possible across
central and southern zones where the best moisture and
instability will reside.
During later tonight a short wave trough will approach from
the west and will move across the north central peninsula
on Wednesday. This feature combined with the stalled front
and high moisture (PW`s increasing to around 1.8 inches)
will help to increase chances for showers and storms and the
possibility of some locally heavy rain across forecast area
later tonight into Wednesday with the highest pops (XX to
XX percent) expected across central and southern zones in
the vicinity of the front. It will remain warm and quite
muggy with lows tonight in the mid 70s over inland areas,
and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast. Highs on
Wednesday will be a bit lower than today given the expected
increase in clouds and rain chances with highs topping out
in the mid to upper 80s.
LONG TERM (Wednesday night - Tuesday)...
Surface high pressure will be suppressed south to across
Cuba through the rest of the week as an upper trough parks
over the eastern seaboard and down across FL with weak
surface low pressure/stalled frontal boundaries remaining in
place across the state. The upper trough finally kicks out
Friday, but leaves weak upper troughing over the state as
weak surface high pressure builds back across the area. This
will then hold across the area through next Tuesday.
Moisture in place across the area increases a bit for the
weekend, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
through the end of the week becoming more scattered to
numerous for the weekend and early next week. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal through the period,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows
in the 70s.
MARINE...
Surface high pressure to the south and a trough of low
pressure to the north will continue to support a westerly
wind flow in the 10 to 15 knot range along with seas of 2 to
4 feet over the Gulf waters tonight through Thursday.
During Friday and into the weekend the high to the south
will build north across the south central peninsula with
lighter winds with an enhanced onshore sea breeze component
developing along the coast each afternoon. Higher winds and
seas will be possible in the vicinity of scattered showers
and thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are anticipated
through the period.
FIRE WEATHER...
Ample moisture and increasing rain chances will keep
humidity values well above critical levels through the end
of the week with no fire weather hazards expected.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 77 86 75 86 / 50 70 40 40
FMY 77 88 74 88 / 30 40 30 30
GIF 74 87 71 87 / 40 70 30 60
SRQ 78 85 76 84 / 40 70 40 40
BKV 74 86 71 87 / 60 70 40 50
SPG 78 84 76 85 / 50 70 40 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Mroczka
Previous Discussion...McMichael/Hubbard