Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/05/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1042 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Most of the area will see a brief break in the unsettled
weather tonight. However, additional showers with isolated
thunderstorms south of Albany are expected on Tuesday as an upper
level low moves over the region. A few more showers are possible on
Wednesday morning, as the upper low departs. Temperatures will be
below normal through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 10:30pm, we are watching a narrow north-south oriented
swatch of showers extending from the Lake George/Saratoga
region down in the Capital District associated with an area of
low level convergence. Considering the ENX radar shows some
radar returns up to 45-55dBz within the line, expect pockets of
steady rain in some areas. Expecting mainly around a tenth of
an inch as this line continues tracking into western New
England over the next 2-3 hours. Some of the NYS mesonet
stations in Capital District gusting up to 30-35mph with SE
winds shifting NW under this line, providing evidence that this
is associated with a boundary.
The HRRR has been handling this line very well and it continues
to suggest this line will reach western New England by 04z-05z.
Subsidence in its wake should lead to decreasing cloud cover
before increasing again toward daybreak ahead of the next
vorticity maximum now over the UP of Michigan. This will allow
for a few showers to spread back into the area from west to east
around daybreak.
Previous discussion...
An area of low pressure will track eastward and move through
the region Tuesday afternoon. Expect Tuesday afternoon to be
fairly wet. In addition due to a good cold pool aloft with H5
temps on the order of -18C will leave mention of scattered
thunderstorms with small hail in the forecast across southern
portions of the forecast area. Lows tonight will be in the 40s
to around 50 with highs on Tuesday in the 50s to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers will linger Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as an upper level trough and its associated vort maxes
cross the region. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.
Dry weather is expected from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday as a ridge oh high pressure builds across the region.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with
lows Wednesday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Thursday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Anomalously strong upper ridge will continue to be situated across
much of the south-central US during the long term, while zonal to
northwesterly flow will exist downstream over the greater Northeast.
Subsidence and weak high pressure with the northwesterly flow will
favor a mainly dry forecast Thursday night into Friday, although a
couple of showers will be possible over the southern Adirondacks as
a weak disturbance delivers a glancing blow. The upper ridge is
forecast to amplify into southern Canada over the weekend, which
will force a downstream disturbance into the Northeast. This will be
in tandem with deep-layer moisture return, favoring areas of
rainfall returning to the Northeast. At this time, the most probable
period for precipitation chances locally looks to be late Saturday
into early Sunday. Better low-level moisture and instability looks
to remain south of the forecast area at this time, so will abstain
from including thunder in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to
average near seasonal normals for the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions have mainly improved to VFR at TAF issuance time, but
a few showers west of KALB are tracking along the I-90 corridor
and could impact KALB/KPSF from time to time through 03Z. A
couple of lightning flashes were observed with this activity,
and while electrical activity should wane as we head after
sunset, an isolated flash cannot be ruled out through 03Z at
KALB/KPSF. Heavier downpours could result in brief MVFR or even
IFR conditions through 03Z.
After this activity moves through, a decrease in cloud cover is
expected for much of the night with VFR conditions expected to
prevail. Cannot rule out some light fog development if clouds
and wind diminish in tandem, but models suggest this probability
is low. The exception is at KPSF where there is enough
confidence to put IFR conditions in the TAF 09-12Z.
Around daybreak, another approaching disturbance will result in
shower activity returning. The onset of diurnal heating will
result in some instability showers, most widespread in the
afternoon hours. Activity should be hit and miss for KALB/KGFL,
so VCSH was included in the TAFs, with VFR cigs. Coverage may be
a bit greater at KPSF/KPOU where showers were put in the
prevailing group for the afternoon. An thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled out at KPOU where surface heating and
instability will be greater, so have included a PROB30 for TS.
Winds will mainly be light southerly through Tuesday morning,
becoming westerly Tuesday afternoon at around 10 kt with some
gusts to around 20 kt.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Most of the area will see a brief break in the unsettled
weather tonight. However, additional showers with isolated
thunderstorms south of Albany are expected on Tuesday as an upper
level low moves over the region. A few more showers are possible on
Wednesday morning, as the upper low departs. Temperatures will be
below normal through mid week.
Minimum relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100
percent tonight, drop to 50 to 70 percent on Tuesday, recover to
80 to 100 percent Tuesday night, and drop to 45 to 60 percent on
Wednesday.
Winds today will be southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight, west at 5
to 10 mph on Tuesday, northwest around 5 mph on Tuesday night
and north around 5 mph on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers through Wednesday will result in an additional quarter
to third of an inch of rain in most areas. Coverage will be
mainly scattered.
Dry conditions are then expected Wednesday night into Thursday,
with the next chance of some showers returning Thursday night
into Friday.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKeefe/11/JPV
NEAR TERM...Thompson/Speciale
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
624 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows an upper level low
north of Lake Huron with an elongated short wave trough rotating
around the backside of the low. The 04.17Z RAP brings this short
wave trough across Lake Superior and over northeast Wisconsin
during the late evening and early overnight hours. This will take
the best forcing to the east of the area but there should be
enough forcing to generate some weak omega over the area as a cold
front slides south. The RAP is also suggesting a narrow corridor
of increased moisture transport along and ahead of the front
during the late evening and overnight hours, but the flow looks to
be looks to generally be parallel to the front which will help
limit the amount of convergence along the front. There also looks
to be a narrow corridor of warm air advection ahead of the front
with the RAP showing up to 6 ubar/s of up glide on the 305K
isentropic surface, but again, this looks to be more parallel to
the front than into it. The ingredients in place along the front
should be enough to generate some scattered showers and a few
storms, but the coverage is in question with the low level flow
looking to parallel the front. For now, plan to have a band of 30
to 40 percent along the front as it drops south through the area
tonight. The cape looks rather meager with up to 250 J/kg of ML
CAPE early this evening that quickly diminished to 100 J/kg or
less. This should be enough for some occasional rumbles of
thunder.
After tonight, the next chance of rain will come Wednesday and
Wednesday night and this chance comes with considerable
uncertainty. The upper level ridge is expected to extend from
Mexico into the High Plains and a short wave trough will come
across the Dakotas, top the ridge Tuesday night and drop
east/southeast across Minnesota and Wisconsin Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An MCS is expected to form with the short wave
trough Tuesday night over the Dakotas and then track across
northern Minnesota Wednesday morning before weakening as it tracks
across Wisconsin. This dying MCS could bring in a little bit of
convection to the area Wednesday afternoon, but the uncertainty is
where and how much convection re-fires Wednesday evening. A cold
front is expected to come into the area with the MCS that the
04.12Z models all suggest will be over the area Wednesday evening.
While the main short wave trough looks to go northeast of the
area, there is a suggestion of a trailing wave that will drop over
the ridge axis and either over the area or just to the southwest.
The low level moisture transport will increase ahead of this
secondary wave but none of the models show this to be all that
strong and comes in at more of an angle to the front that
perpendicular to it. There is a general consensus that another
complex will form along the front Wednesday evening, but with the
differences in the placement of the short wave trough, it could
possibly be over the area or to the southwest and miss much of the
area. With these differences, will stay with the blended model
solutions with 40 to 50 percent chances west of the Mississippi
River and then dropping south through the night. Some chances for
severe weather with this complex as there should be an axis of
1500-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE ahead of the front with around 30 knots
of 0-3 km shear for a damaging wind threat. Good mid level lapse
rates during the evening could lead to some hail production that
would then transition to a heavy rain threat with precipitable
water at or above 1.75 inches and warm cloud depths of 3.5 to 4
km.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
The medium range models are suggesting the upper level ridge will
remain in place through the end of the week setting up the
possibility of more short wave troughs topping it and moving
across the region. The cold front also doesn`t look to move too
far away, although it should get pushed south of the area with
Wednesday night`s activity. This will lead to occasional rain
chances from Thursday into Saturday night with the highest chances
centered on Friday afternoon and night as a stronger short wave
trough may be moving across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible at the
TAF sites in the 03Z to 08Z timeframe, but conditions will remain
VFR with cloud bases in the 5-8 kft range. High pressure builds in
on Tuesday with VFR conditions expected.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Wetenkamp
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1002 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A low moving south out off Canada will keep cool and unsettled
weather in our area through Tuesday. Drier and warmer weather
will return to the area before the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another short wave moves southeast reaching into northern NY
from the upper Great Lakes region. This feature will bring more
clouds and scattered showers back to central NY and far northern
PA overnight into the mid-morning hours Tuesday. Updated the
timing of the showers to reflect that of the HRRR and RAP with
the late evening update.
This next wave brings another shot of cold air advection and
colder air aloft farther south than previous waves. This upper
level wave will organize another front that focuses more on
northern Pa Tuesday afternoon. Models even have some CAPE
generated so will have highest POPs northeast Pa to Sullivan Co.
NY with slight chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon. Rest of
forecast area will see isolated to scattered showers during this
time.
Then for Tuesday night, short waves and upper level low is east
of our forecast area with a cool drier northerly flow so we
taper POPs down overnight into early Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday...Surface high pressure will build into the eastern
Great Lakes by late day making for a mainly rain free day across
the region. Will continue to mention just low chance pops for
rain showers in the western Catskills with cyclonic flow aloft
and abundant low level moisture. Model soundings show a fair
amount of low level moisture through midday so not much sunshine
expected until afternoon. Highs will generally range in the
lower to middle 60s.
Wednesday night...Surface high pressure will reside over the
region leading to mainly clear skies and light winds. Overnight
temperatures will be cool with lows ranging from the lower to
middle 40s.
Thursday...High pressure will slide off the New England coast as
an upper level trough moves into eastern Canada. There is a
slight chance for showers across northern Oneida county during
the afternoon as this upper level trough approaches the
northeast but the remainder of the forecast area will remain
dry. Highs will range in the lower to middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night into Friday now looks primarily dry as the
northern stream short wave and resulting surface trough are much
weaker with the latest model runs. Will only include slight
chance for showers across the far north Thursday night and
slight chance for thunderstorms in the far southeast on Friday
as this weak boundary may combine with some surface based
instability to produce an isolated thunderstorm. Overall not
much expected. Highs on Friday will range in the mid to upper
70s.
Saturday into Sunday the models have trended stronger and
farther north with a system that tracks from the Great Lakes
region east across the local area and into New England.
Increased pops across the entire forecast area Saturday through
Sunday but kept the pops in the chance category for now. Will
mention a chance for thunder on Saturday in northeast
Pennsylvania as models indicate some surface based instability
here. Things should dry out Sunday afternoon as the trailing
cold front moves east of the region. Sunday night into Monday
will be dry as high pressure builds south from eastern Canada.
Temperatures through the period will be seasonal.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00z update...As an area of lower clouds and light showers
spreads across parts of CNY in the pre-dawn period Tuesday,
we`re introducing some MVFR restrictions at KSYR and KRME.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the valid TAF period.
W-NW surface winds this evening at 5-10 kt, will become W-SW
overnight. Winds should turn NW again during the day Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Still a chance for showers,
but mostly VFR.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms KAVP, with brief
restrictions possible. VFR elsewhere.
Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms KAVP, KBGM, and
KELM, with with brief restrictions possible. VFR elsewhere.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MWG
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJN/MLJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1004 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong mid-level subsidence will keep dry conditions in place
through the middle of the week. A more summerlike pattern will
return late week as Atlantic high pressure sets up offshore and
troughing persists inland. A backdoor cold front may approach
the South Carolina Lowcountry early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A relaxed pressure pattern across the area has allowed for
decoupled winds most places inland, and this will persist
through the night. Aloft we find a general W-NW zonal flow, and
considerable dry air over most of the vertical about the
boundary layer to near H4 or H3. These conditions will lead to
one of the "cooler" nights we`ve had in many areas in about 2
or 3 weeks. We are still showing lows in the mid and upper 60s
inland from US-17 and lower 70s on and near the coast.
The biggest change in this update has been the addition of
patchy fog to locations of eastern Berkeley County, much of
Charleston County and coastal Colleton County from about 2 or 3
am through 9 am. It was these locations where dew points pooled
in the middle 70s behind the sea breeze this afternoon, and
where we have the best chance of reaching our cross-over
temperatures. This solution is backed by the HRRR (which
actually shows the potential for dense fog), the NARRE-TL which
as probabilities of fog in excess of 50-60%, and to a lesser
extent the SREF which shows fog probabilities of 25-35%. The one
caveat to this is the upstream jet-induced cirrus that will
continue to filter in through the night. But satellite and
cross-sections indicate that coverage will be translucent
enough where it shouldn`t have any negating impacts on the fog.
We will certainly need to monitor for some dense fog as per the
HRRR, but given how warm the ground is, this is not does seem
plausible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally quiet weather will persist through the period. On
Tuesday, the area will be situated underneath the entrance area
of a 250 mb jet, resulting in divergence aloft and likely some
cirrus coverage through the day. However, broad mid and upper
level troughing stretching across the eastern US and western
North Atlantic will keep a deep layer of downsloping flow/
subsidence and a dry forecast in place. Downsloping flow will
keep temps near to a few degrees above normal despite the cirrus
cloud cover.
Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level trough axis will cross the
area, and heights aloft will begin to slowly increase. This, in
combination with continued northwest/downsloping flow in the mid-
levels will result in a strong mid level CAP, and with no features
in place to overcome this capping, a mainly dry forecast continues.
The exception is Thursday afternoon and evening, when there is a
slight chance of thunderstorms north of the Savannah River as modest
moisture convergence/pooling occurs between high pressure over New
England and troughing across the Deep South. Temps will generally
remain a few degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday through the weekend, the region will remain under weak
ridging sourced from a large ridge over the southern Great Plains.
Forecast soundings indicates that a weak inversion will linger
across the CWA, with low values of CAPE over a weak cap. However,
steady SE llvl flow, convection should focus along and ahead of a
inland drifting sea breeze each afternoon and evening. I will
forecast diurnal PoPs for general thunderstorms. On Monday, a well
defined backdoor cold front is timed on the GFS to ECMWF to slide
over the CWA during the daytime. The combination of the front with a
low to moderate unstable environment should support scattered deep
convection, I will use PoPs just below 50. Temperature are forecast
to remain between upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. There are however indications that there could be a few
hours of flight restrictions in light fog at KCHS late tonight
into early Tuesday. Thus we have included this in the latest
TAF set as a tempo from 09Z to 13Z Tuesday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will persist through
the end of the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: A relaxed pressure gradient will lead to light and
variable winds for most of the night, followed by weak offshore
winds closer to daybreak as the land breeze develops. Speeds
will be 10 kt or less with seas 1-2 ft. Some radiation fog from
over the nearby land could slip into the Charleston Harbor for a
few hours between about 3 am and 9 am. If winds turn enough
offshore some of this could move into the nearby Charleston
County waters close to or shortly after daybreak.
Tuesday through Friday: Broad high pressure will slide across the
region through Wednesday, providing the region with light winds and
wave heights between 1-2 feet. Winds may become light and variable
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as broad low pressure develops
near the GA coast. Steady SSE winds are forecast to develop across
the waters by Thursday afternoon and should remain through Sunday.
Seas are expected to range around 1 foot along the coast to around 2
feet at 10 NM and beyond.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
CAMs have the convection currently over eastern MT moving quickly
east overnight and entering our western counties around 09Z. The
HRRR and its variants have been trending a bit further south,
which fits with current radar. On the other hand, it also rapidly
fizzles the southern end of the activity out as it approaches the
Red River Valley. Not super impressed by precip chances south of
Highway 2 corridor, but included some low POPs down towards
Griggs/Barnes counties during the early morning hours. Think the
main focus and most QPF will be in the north for the early
activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
Quiet weather continues through this evening as upper level ridging
remains in place. A weak shortwave moves across southern Canada, and
may support showers or a few weak thunderstorms in our far north
after midnight tonight through Tuesday morning (north of Highway 2).
A stronger shortwave rounds the top of the upper level ridge into
western ND by midday Tuesday and across our CWA by Tuesday night.
Surface low pressure begins to deepen in response and a warm front
lifts then then stalls over our CWA by Tuesday afternoon.
Southerly flow should support increasing low level moisture and
combined with WAA support increasing instability (ML CAPE
1500-2500 J/KG) by the late afternoon. Initially air mass remains
capped, though there could be lingering activity near
international border from remnants of morning
showers/thunderstorms. This cap should weaken by around 00Z in
response to daytime heating and approaching shortwave and
thunderstorm initiation is expected near our western CWA Tuesday
afternoon. Strongly sheared environment will support effective
shear values in excess of 50kt and potential for supercell
activity early in the event. LCLs are higher than ideal, but
tornado threat can`t be ruled out with lingering frontal zone in
place and considering potential supercell development late
afternoon/early evening.
CAMs show thunderstorm activity transitioning into a MCS/cluster
Tuesday evening and tracking across the remainder of our CWA.
Stronger activity may tend to dive along frontal zone/favorable
CAPE axis and this is shown to transition east as the shortwave
moves over our CWA into NW MN. Impacts will trend from supercells
early in the event (hail 2" or greater/damaging winds/tor
possible) to mainly strong winds and large hail through the
evening/overnight. Loss of heating will tend to support activity
becoming elevated, so there is less confidence on eastern extent
of severe threat overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
Zonal flow over area as a minor shortwave moves across a flattened
ridge associated with upper high over TX. Wave will result in some
early morning shra/tsra on Wed, moving out of area by late Wed aftn.
Sfc high then moves over region for Wed night as upper ridge begins
to amplify from northern tier thorugh Sask/Alb provinces. Will see a
break in activity through early Friday morning, when next shortwave
moves into area with SW flow aloft from srn CA into the Dakotas. At
the sfc, a warm frontal boundary sets up on south side of ND/SD
state line and storms/showers will develop early Fri morning mainly
across srn zones. Low confidence in the lower POPs on Sat as system
moves out of area, but easterly flow setting up Sat night into Sun
should keep most of area dry for latter part of the weekend...with
some low POPs for cntrl ND into the Devils Lake and Valley city
regions. A cold front then moves across the region Sun night into
Mon, and day 7 looks like best chance for widespread shra/tsra
activity in the Day 2 through 7 timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
VFR conditions currently and will continue throughout the period
with increasing mid level clouds. Think some showers and
thunderstorms moving into the northwestern forecast area later
tonight will stay north of the TAF sites. Conditions will remain
VFR throughout the period. Winds will be from the northeast
eventually becoming southeast.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1042 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front stretching across northern Minnesota and the Upper
Peninsula early this afternoon. Scattered to broken cu popped by
late morning over northern WI, ahead of the front. Meanwhile, a
swath of accas is moving southeast into north-central WI along a
850-700mb convergence zone. With deep mixing, dewpoints have mixed
out into the middle 40s and upper 40s. Consequently, it has been
a struggle to develop much in the way of instability this
afternoon, which leads me to believe that models are too ambitious
with precip chances for later today. Still though, based on the
HRRR, will keep a chance of showers and isolated storms in the
forecast for after 5 pm from roughly south of a Tomahawk to Green
Bay line. If any storms develop, they will be capable of producing
gusty winds above 40 mph.
Tonight...Because of the falling dewpoints this afternoon, confidence
has fallen in regards to shower/storm development later today. But
will keep a mention of scattered showers and isolated storms in
the forecast over central and east-central WI during the evening
as a cold front moves through. Dry air will filter south across
the region as the front moves into southern Wisconsin overnight.
Though winds will shift to the north behind the boundary, the
gusts should die off by mid to late evening, and may even become
calm late tonight over the northwoods in spots. If this occurs,
temps will potential to fall into the middle or upper 30s at the
cold spots like Land O Lakes and Eagle River. Dropped temps in
these locations, though temps should remain warm enough to prevent
frost. Temps will be relatively warmer in the low 50s over the
southern Fox Valley.
Tuesday...A weak area of high pressure will build into the region.
Scattered, flat cu may still pop over eastern and far northern WI
where there are moisture fluxes off Lake Superior & Lake Michigan.
Otherwise, should see plenty of sun with cooler temperatures than
todays readings. Highs ranging from the upper 60s over Vilas
county to the mid 70s in Wood county.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
Little change is expected in the mean flow into next weekend with
an upper trough near the West Coast, an upper ridge over the
central U.S. and another upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This
would keep northeast WI in a northwest flow aloft and vulnerable
to disturbances topping the ridge before heading in our direction.
This set-up would bring periodic chances for showers/thunderstorms
to the region from Wednesday through Saturday. The upper ridge is
forecast to strengthen this weekend and begin to shift east in
response to an eastward move made by the western upper trough.
This should bring a drier, albeit seasonal forecast to northeast
WI for early next week. Temperatures overall will average close to
normal.
High pressure is expected to remain parked over the Great Lakes
region Tuesday night, helping to bring mostly clear skies and
light winds to northeast WI. This will allow min temperatures to
drop into the lower to middle 40s north, middle 40s to around 50
degrees south. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday morning
ahead of an advancing cold front and mid-level shortwave topping
the upper ridge. As a surge of WAA occurs Wednesday afternoon and
the front pushes into northwest WI by 00Z Thursday, anticipate at
least a chance of showers and thunderstorms to reach central WI.
Instability looks marginal at best, thus the risk of any severe
storms appears to be minimal. Max temperatures to be in the lower
to middle 60s near Lake MI, upper 60s to around 70 degrees north
and lower 70s south.
While the chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue into Wednesday night as the cold front/shortwave push
through the area, the bigger question is whether a bigger complex
of storms will develop to our west and south. This location would
have much stronger instability and an increasing low-level jet to
fire off the thunderstorms, however the latest model guidance
focuses this complex from southwest MN to northern IL. Therefore,
have focused pops mainly during the evening hours and gradually
have the precipitation end across the north overnight. Min
temperatures to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s north, middle to
upper 50s south. While the shortwave to be long gone by Thursday,
the cold front is forecast to stall roughly from northern IA to
the WI/IL border. Moisture pooling along this boundary, combined
with strong instability, should keep showers/thunderstorms
developing over that part of the region. For northeast WI, a weak
area of high pressure is expected to move into northern sections
of the Great Lakes and feed enough dry air to keep any
precipitation away. Max temperatures on Thursday to range from
around 70 degrees near Lake MI, middle 70s to around 80 degrees
elsewhere.
As a 30-40 knot low-level jet develops over the Plains Thursday
night, models now begin to lift the stalled front northward as a
warm front. As this occurs, cannot rule out showers or
thunderstorms from reaching central or east-central WI after
midnight. By Friday, with the warm front just to our south, the
models suggest another disturbance to top the ridge and push
toward western WI in the afternoon. May need to expand
precipitation chances farther north than previously thought due to
the added increase in mid-level forcing. More clouds will keep
diurnal warming in check with max temperatures on Friday in the
upper 60s near Lake MI, middle to upper 70s inland.
The unsettled weather appears to continue through Friday night
into Saturday as this latest disturbance rolls across the Great
Lakes and a surface low is progged to ride along the warm front
(or nearly stationary front). Hard at this time to try and
pinpoint when the better chance for precipitation will occur, so
will cover Friday night/Saturday with chance category for now.
Temperatures on Saturday should be close to seasonal normals.
Once this entire system departs Saturday night, the rest of the
weekend into the start of the next work week is forecast to be dry
as a large Canadian high pressure builds south from Hudson Bay.
Temperatures for early next week should remain about normal with
afternoon relative humidity values falling into the 30s over
northern WI.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
A weak frontal boundary dropping south across the area combined
with some mid-level moisture and QG forcing to produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the evneing. Those will be south
of the TAF sites by 06Z. High pressure will build into the area
for Tuesday, with VFR conditions anticipated.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
West or northwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts along the Bay and
Lake Michigan shoreline are expected to diminish by early this
evening as a cold front moves through. Scattered showers and
isolated storms will be possible generally south of Sturgeon Bay
late this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, winds will
shift to the north around 10 to 15 kts tonight.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......Skowronski
MARINE.........MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
905 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.UPDATE...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continue to develop north
and northeast of the forecast area this evening along a boundary
evident in surface theta-e fields stretching from Sherman/Denison
to Lufkin to Opelousas, LA. The KHGX RAP VWP shows low level winds
in the 1-3kft layer have strengthened anywhere from 15-25 knots
and expect isentropic ascent associated with these winds and the
surface boundary to allow for the potential for thunderstorm
development to persist near the northeastern counties through most
of the night. 305K lapse rates along the boundary remain steep
through the night (6-6.5 C/km) so the potential for an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm near Houston, Trinity, and Polk
counties will continue for at least a few more hours. Nacogdoches
reported a 61 MPH gust from a thunderstorm earlier this evening
and anticipate gusty to damaging winds being the main threat from
any activity that is able to wander off the boundary and into the
northeastern counties. A shortwave trough translating eastward
out of Oklahoma this evening may also contribute to additional
flare ups in convection along the boundary over northeast Texas,
but expect most of this activity to remain well north of the
region.
Light surface winds across the southwestern counties Tuesday
morning may be able to encourage patchy or light fog development
with overnight lows in the 70s inland to lower 80s along the
coast.
Huffman
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018/
AVIATION...
Fcst soundings continue to show weak capping and a relatively dry
profile. Have pulled the VCTS from all TAF sites for this evening.
VFR conditions are expected through 06z. A mix of IFR/MVFR
ceilings should begin to develop after 08z with MVFR conditions
the predominant category. Drier air off the surface will begin to
mix down on Tuesday morning and VFR conditions should develop
after 15z. Model QPF is benign on Tuesday but fcst soundings show
little to no capping on Tuesday afternoon with PW values between
1.70-1.90 inches by 21z. Although confidence is low, feel a VCTS
is warranted. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Not a whole lot of action going on as of 3 PM thanks to a cap in
place, but we will have a shot at at least some scattered showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Best chances
for now look to be across the northeast portions of the area as
this is where the stalled frontal boundary has settled in for now.
With a little bit of an inverted V in the soundings and PWs near
2 inches, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with any storms that are able to develop. High temperatures were
adjusted down a touch for the Brazos Valley as they kept higher
cloud cover than was expected for much of the day.
A shortwave trough rotates across the ArkLaTex late tonight into
tomorrow morning, which could bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Most of this should be focused just to
the northeast, but especially the NE and E portions of the area
could get a round of showers and thunderstorms early tomorrow
morning and into the daytime tomorrow. Lack of heating when the
worst rolls through should generally limit the severe potential.
After the shortwave exits, upper ridging builds back in over
West Texas with SE Texas on the eastern periphery. Depending on
the strength and placement of the ridge each day, we do keep
enough moisture that a few showers and storms could develop along
the seabreeze during the afternoons. Probably will have a little
variance day to day based on the finer details, but overall the
pattern will pretty much be the same through the rest of the
forecast period. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the 90s
basically every afternoon, so summer heat safety messaging will
need to continue.
11
MARINE...
A typical summer time pattern is expected over the northwest Gulf
for the next several days. South to southwest winds are expected
through the middle of the week at around 10 to 15 knots. Winds turn
more to the southeast for the end of the week with speeds of 10 to
15 knots. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet in offshore areas with
bays slightly choppy.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 75 96 75 / 10 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 94 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 90 81 90 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...14
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
922 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.UPDATE.../Rest of Tonight/...
Convection has dissipated with the last shower or two noted over
Clay and Duval counties recently. Outside of debris clouds from
earlier convection over parts of northeast FL...skies are clear.
Water vapor imagery shows much drier air aloft continuing to
filter on west to northwest flow aloft. Lower dewpoint air with
values in the mid to upper 50s per sfc obs noted over inland
southeast GA as a weak cold front pushes into the region. The
front and drier conditions will enable slightly cooler lows
overnight with mid 60s possible over inland southeast GA and mid
60s to lower 70s elsewhere. Could be some patchy shallow fog and
low stratus over inland northeast FL late tonight based on NAM and
HRRR models...but overall this potential should be relatively
short-lived occurrence. For the update...just tweaked temps/dewpoints
for current trends and added patchy fog into the srn zones.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions to prevail. Only exception is MVFR fog
and few-sct stratus has been placed into the GNV terminal for
late tonight. No convection is noted in terminals for Tuesday due
to much drier airmass over the region.
&&
.MARINE...No significant changes. South to southwest flow near
10-15 kt will become west to northwest toward morning. Seas 1-3
ft.
Rip Currents: Mainly low risk through Tuesday due to small surf
and offshore flow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 89 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 89 72 87 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 69 92 70 92 / 10 10 0 10
SGJ 73 91 71 88 / 10 0 10 20
GNV 69 91 69 89 / 10 0 10 30
OCF 71 91 69 89 / 10 0 20 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Shashy/Nelson/McGinnis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
734 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid-level low centered
in Ontario to the e of Lake Superior. Axis of associated upper jet
extends from se Manitoba se across the Keweenaw to eastern upper MI
and far ne Lower MI. Abundant cloud cover is noted on the cyclonic
side of the jet and within the 850mb thermal trof running from
northern Ontario across eastern Lake Superior to Lake Huron. Some
diurnal cu development has also occurred into w and central Upper
MI. To the w, a streak of frontogenesis under right entrance of
upper jet is supporting some mid-level clouds from ne MN into
northern WI and adjacent Upper MI. Building mixed layer is tapping
into 35-50kt winds noted from 1500-5500ft agl per KMQT vad wind
profile, leading to a windy day today with gusts of 25-35mph common.
A few gusts have been up around 40 mph. These gusty winds will
diminish rather quickly early this evening.
Streak of frontogenesis will shift by to the s of Upper MI this
evening as shortwave pivots around the mid-level low circulation.
Thus, shra, which should develop in the next few hrs in northern WI,
should slip by just to the s of the fcst area. Another shortwave
rotating around the mid-level low is fcst to drop across the eastern
U.P. overnight. Being w of the shortwave track, this wave should not
pose any pcpn concerns for the fcst area either. Second shortwave
may help force some of the low clouds across northern Lake
Superior/northern Ontario into portions of northern and eastern
Upper MI overnight. Meanwhile, sfc high pres ridge building se into
western Upper MI will result in winds diminishing to light/calm over
that area tonight. Leaned fcst toward the lower side of guidance
over the w, but not all the way given the potential of some cloud
cover spreading s overnight and since precipitable water is not
unusually low to enhance radiational cooling. Some locations over
the interior w may slip down to 36/37F, and there might be some
patchy frost if temps do indeed drop that low. Rest of the area will
see mins generally in the low/mid 40s.
Some morning clouds to start the day roughly over the n central and
e may expand in coverage for a time during the morning hrs under
850mb thermal trof before eroding and shifting s and e. The aftn
will end up mostly sunny. It will be a less windy day on Tue as high
pres ridge moves over the western Great Lakes. Lake breeze enhanced
northerly wind ahead of the ridge should lead to gusts of 15-20mph
central and e. This northerly wind will make for cool day along Lake
Superior. Some lakeside locations may stay in the 40s Tue,
especially e of Marquette. Temps will range up to around 70F well
into the interior w half.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018
No major weather impacts expected in the long-term portion of the
forecast.
Overall pretty quiet in the long term. Could see some rain showers
Wed into Wed night as a shortwave passes through the region, but
confidence is low due to uncertainty with exactly where that
shortwave tracks. Similar story late Fri into Sat, but with even
greater uncertainty. Blended initialization handled the forecast
quite well, so didn`t need to make any changes to that.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 731 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018
Gusty winds are diminishing this evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are likely to prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru most of
the fcst period. However, as a disturbance drops thru the Upper
Lakes tonight, some of the low clouds currently over northern Lake
Superior into northern Ontario may slip s into Upper MI,
potentially affecting KCMX and especially KSAW. If so, a period of
MVFR cigs could occur roughly in the 04z-09z time frame. &&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 406 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2018
Btwn low pres along the Ontario/Quebec border and a high pres ridge
building se toward the Upper Lakes, nw winds of 20-30kt are expected
over much of the e half of Lake Superior into the evening hrs. Winds
will be lighter in the 10-20kt range over the western part of the
lake. As the ridge shifts se and settles over the area on Tue, winds
will diminish w to e, falling back to mostly under 10kt w and to
under 20kt e for Tue. Winds should then be mostly under 15kt Tue
night thru Thu. There might be a period of slightly stronger winds
Wed/Wed evening as a cold front approaches and passes across the
lake. The week will end with winds mostly under 20kt for Fri/Sat.
However, deepending on the strength of a low pres system that will
track eastward from the Plains and pass s of Upper MI, easterly
winds could be quite a bit stronger than currently expected.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
842 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast have been made. High pressure
continues to be in place across the Florida peninsula.
Overnight conditions will remain warm and dry, with
relatively light winds from the west, as suggested by the
00Z sounding analysis.
&&
.AVIATION...
Some clouds are moving across the Tampa Bay area between
015-025k ft, but VFR conditions are expected throughout the
evening/tonight, with the exception of a brief period of
MVFR cigs from 11Z - 15Z. Conditions are expected to be
VFR throughout the day on Tuesday. Winds will be out of the
West between 10-15 knots throughout most of the day on Tuesday.
Airports south of Tampa Bay may have VCTS from 15Z - 20Z.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 221 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
Strong mid/upper level ridging from Mexico extending
northeast into the Plains will maintain upper level
troughing over the eastern U.S. and Florida through Tuesday.
At the surface a weak cold front will sink south into the
Nature Coast tonight, before stalling out across the south-
central peninsula on Tuesday. As for the remainder of the
afternoon scattered showers and a few storms will be
possible, especially over inland locations within the
westerly low level flow. Some isolated strong storms will be
possible with strong gusty winds the main hazard given cool
air aloft over the region. The showers and storms will come
to end by early tonight with loss of daytime heating,
however with a moist westerly flow remaining in place,
combined with the frontal trough approaching from the north,
some additional showers or storms will likely develop over
the Gulf waters and push toward the coast overnight, with
best chances from the Bay area south. The hi-res HRRR and
blend of ECAM and CONSSHORT guidance supports this, so will
depict low pops (20 to 30 percent) in these locations. It
will be a warm and muggy night with low temperatures in the
mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the
coast.
On Tuesday some drier air in the wake of the front will keep
rain chances out of the forecast across the Nature Coast
with mainly warm and slightly less humid conditions
expected, while isolated to scattered showers and storms
will continue to be possible mainly south of the Tampa Bay
area in the vicinity of the stalling front, with highest
rain chances and best convective coverage likely over
interior locations and across southwest Florida.
Temperatures on Tuesday will remain above normal with highs
again climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat
indices climbing to near 100 degrees during the afternoon.
LONG TERM (Tuesday night - Monday)...
Surface high pressure will be suppressed south to across
Cuba through much of the week as an upper trough parks
over the eastern seaboard with weak low pressure/stalled
frontal boundaries remaining in place across the state. The
upper trough finally kicks out Friday, but leaves weak
troughing over the state as the surface pressures remain
weak. Moisture in place across the area increases a bit for
the weekend, with isolated to scattered showers and storms
through the week becoming more scattered to numerous for the
weekend. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
through the period, with highs generally in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s.
MARINE...
Surface high pressure across the Florida Straits and a
trough of low pressure to the north will maintain a
westerly wind flow in the 10 to 15 knot range along with
seas of 2 to 4 feet over the Gulf waters tonight through
Thursday. During Friday and into the upcoming weekend the
high will build north across the south central peninsula
with a lighter winds with an enhanced onshore sea breeze
component developing along the coast each afternoon. Higher
winds and seas will be possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are anticipated.
FIRE WEATHER...
Slightly drier air will move into the Nature Coast on
Tuesday, however humidity values are expected to remain
above critical levels. During the reminder of the week
increasing moisture and rain chances will preclude red flag
conditions with no fire weather concerns expected.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 78 87 76 85 / 20 10 10 40
FMY 78 88 76 88 / 30 30 20 30
GIF 76 90 74 87 / 20 10 10 50
SRQ 79 85 78 85 / 30 20 20 40
BKV 75 90 74 86 / 10 10 10 40
SPG 79 86 77 85 / 20 20 10 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION.../Flannery
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Light rain associated with an MCV continues to diminish as it
moves east across far southeast Oklahoma and west central
Arkansas. Other scattered showers across parts of north central
into northeast Oklahoma should diminish with eastward extent over
the next few hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop overnight across central and south central
Oklahoma. The latest runs of the HRRR keep most, if not all, of
this activity west of our forecast area, so have reduced pops for
the overnight hours. Have also lowered overnight lows a few
degrees in most places.
Update on the way.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05
PLATE