Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/04/18

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1019 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 No significant updates to the forecast this evening. Main adjustment has been for some mid clouds that have developed over far north central SD and south central ND tied to a pocket of moisture between 700-600mb and broad/weak warm air advection. Did tweak sky cover up some due to the development of the FEW/SCT clouds, but 00Z NAM and even latest RAP have tended to back off some on the moisture in that layer. The current clouds should continue to track to the ESE through the night and be centered over NE SD around daybreak. CAM solutions have been showing the potential for light showers on comp reflectivity (as warm air advection increases overnight over NE SD), but with the abundant dry air below the 10kft cloud bases, thinking it won`t amount to much more than virga or maybe a few sprinkles. UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Winds will diminish this evening across the eastern CWA with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight, surface high pressure will move away from the area as we see south to southeast winds developing. Clear skies are expected with lows generally in the lower 50s, although favored cool spots may dip into the upper 40s. Best locations for this will be in Aberdeen and some parts of the eastern CWA that experience light winds much of the night. On Monday, warm air advection ensues with southerly winds increasing. Although, models have seemed to back off a bit on wind speeds over the past 24 to 36 hours. Winds are rather light in the lowest few thousand feet above the surface. Increased highs a few degrees on Monday in our "pocket of dryness" from Brown county, down through Spink/Edmunds/Faulk/Hand counties. .LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Focus on Tuesday shows a weak wave moving in late in the day/overnight - overtopping an upper ridge axis that will have dominated conditions during the daytime hours. So for the day we will have weak warm/dry air advection in the mid levels, with little indication of high clouds. 700/850mb thermal anomalies are around 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo respectively, though Low level flow is weak and more southeasterly which will temper the degree of mixing. Have highlighted drought stricken areas and increased temperatures a few degrees as per recent surface temperature trends suggest. Looking at BUFKIT profiles the majority of moisture is between 12 and 16kft for most of the CWA with the upper wave, suggesting weak elevated convection and thus limited POPS/QPF outside the far northeast CWA where there is better agreement between the GFS/EC and other models for sustainable convection crossing the periphery of the CWA. Surface high pressure follows for Thursday, while an upper high gets situated to the south. A series of waves will pivot around the upper high so there could be several opportunities for both surface based and elevated convection for the latter half of the week/weekend with this feature as it migrates somewhere around the south central CONUS and 4 corners regions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SRF SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Telken
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
931 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will spread showers across NY and PA overnight. Cool and unsettled weather will continue through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Several areas of low pressure stretched from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue moving northeastward ahead of a cold front. Moisture rung out ahead of these features for a few periods of showers this evening that become more scattered late. The evening updates made some adjustments to the trends in rain chances overnight. based on current radar, both the HRRR and RAP look overdone on the coverage and intensity of the rainfall. For the Poconos into the Southern catskills, several more hours of showers into the early morning hours are likely but less in the way of QPF than anticipated earlier ( 1/2 inch or so total). Further west, only some scattered showers are expected with lower chances. Steadier showers around Rome and Syracuse will diminish in the next couple of hours as well. Overnight, abnormally chilly air behind the front drops down from Canada, temperatures will fall into the upper- 40s by Monday morning. We will be under the influence of the upper vortex on Monday. Scattered shower activity will continue, with temperatures struggling into the middle-60s by afternoon. Another cool push will bring a few showers to NY and PA Monday night. Minimums will be in the middle and upper-40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Tuesday/Tuesday night... During this period an upper level low will track from southern Quebec into northern New England then into Nova Scotia. Not much activity expected during the morning hours but by afternoon diurnal heating with cold air aloft will result in likely pops across the area. Models indicate some instability during the afternoon in northeast Pennsylvania so will mention slight chance for thunder. This is a high POP low QPF forecast due to limited large scale forcing. Will continue with low chance pops Tuesday night as upper level system slowly moves off to the northeast. It will be cool with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Wednesday should be primarily dry although kept a mention for showers across the eastern forecast area, nearest to upper level system. Temperatures will remain cool under northeast flow with highs in the lower to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Extended period looks primarily dry as initially surface high pressure will be in the vicinity then shifts off the New Jersey coast Thursday evening. A cold front will drop south through the region late Thursday night into Friday morning with scattered showers expected. Behind this front high pressure in the upper Great Lakes will build east bringing primarily dry weather through the early part of next weekend. A system passing to our south may bring some showers to mainly northeast Pennsylvania Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures through the period will be fairly close to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For the most part, VFR is expected this evening. The possible exceptions are KELM, KSYR, and KRME, where brief fuel alternate-MVFR restrictions are possible in lower ceilings/showers. Later tonight into Monday, widespread fuel alternate restrictions are anticipated, as lower clouds and showers bodily overspread the region. At KBGM and KAVP, the potential is there for a period of IFR around daybreak. Monday afternoon, improvement back to VFR is anticipated area- wide. S-SE surface winds should average 5-10 kt overnight. Winds should veer into the SW later Monday morning, then to NW in the afternoon. Some brief south-southeasterly gusts are possible tonight at KITH, with northwesterly gusts Monday afternoon most common at KSYR and KRME. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...Still a chance for showers and associated restrictions, especially Tuesday. Thursday and Friday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...DJP/MLJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
953 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 All precipitation has ended so have removed the rest of the PoPs and weather for tonight`s forecast. In fact, skies are already clearing across the I-25 Corridor, and the rest of the forecast area will follow within the next couple hours. UPDATE Issued at 745 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Latest radar shows convection is already winding down across the mountains, and little if any of it has been able to maintain itself across the plains as the airmass is too stable (noted in the 00Z Denver sounding). There`s just a slight risk of a couple showers/isolated storm spilling onto the plains mainly in the Palmer Divide area, but overall we`ve cut back on PoPs as the airmass continues to stabilize. Skies will clear overnight with the departing upper level disturbance, setting the stage for upper level ridging and highs pushing back close to the 90F degree mark across the plains on Monday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 224 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Upper level low near the Four Corners will track across Colorado tonight. Latest model runs continue to show most of the precipitation staying over the higher terrain and across southern Colorado. HRRR and RAP models show some showers and storms moving off the higher terrain. If storms move off the higher terrain, only a few hundredths to a tenth inch of precipitation is expected. No severe weather is expected as cloud cover is helping to keep the airmass stable. Mixed layer CAPE should remain less than 500 J/kg. Gusty outflow winds 30-40 mph is expected with the thunderstorms. As the airmass stabilizes tonight and the trough axis shifts over eastern Colorado, showers and storms will end around midnight. Subsidence behind the trough will bring mostly clear skies and dry conditions for late tonight and Monday. It will be warmer Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s over northeast Colorado. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 326 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 An upper ridge is parked over the forecast area Monday night through the extended period of at least next Sunday. The ridge axis move over the eastern CWA a couple times but migrates right back over the central CWA. The synoptic scale energy is benign for many days to come. The low level winds are pretty weak with a southerly/downsloping component to them Monday night into Wednesday morning. There are more normal looking diurnal wind patterns expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Looking at moisture, there is little around Monday night. There is a bit more late day Tuesday, with a bit more late day Wednesday, especially over the east in the evening. The dew point grids have 30s and 40s F for the plains Monday night into Wednesday morning. The surface dew points come up Wednesday with 50s F over the eastern half. CAPE-wise, there isn`t much Monday evening, just a tad over the far eastern border. The CAPE is nearly up to 1000 J/kg over the mountains and late day Tuesday, less on the plains. The CAPE is pretty high over the plains and foothills on late day Wednesday. For pops will go with 0-20%s late day Tuesday, but a bit higher for the plains late day Wednesday and well into the evening. For temperatures, Tuesday`s highs will be a tad cooler than Monday`s. Wednesday`s highs will be a tad cooler again. both day`s highs will still be above seasonal normals. For the later days, Thursday through Sunday, the upper ridge axis is right over and a bit east of the CWA all four days; it wavers. The flow aloft is west- southwesterly all four days. There is enough moisture for some 10-20% pops in the late day periods. Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 745 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 The gusty southwesterly winds didn`t develop as there has been little outflow from the high based showers and storms that were dissipating well to our west over the mountains. Any chance of a passing shower/storm for the Denver airports til 05Z is only around 10% as the airmass is too dry/stable to support much activity on the plains. Overall, south/southwest winds around 6-14 knots should prevail through the rest of the night. VFR conditions will persist with clearing toward 06Z-08Z. No weather impacts then expected through Monday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Barjenbruch SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...Barjenbruch/Danielson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
937 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .UPDATE... Complex of storms to the east of the CWA continues to crank west. Cloud tops still remain near -80C in places with no signs of warming. Latest mesoanalysis shows little CIN for the next couple of hours and therefore expect it to continue west aided by cold pool interactions. The bulk of the convection can be seen building near the stalled boundary near College Station. In addition, this axis along the boundary is where the best CAPE/little CIN is located and have thus raised PoPs in this area in the northeastern CWA to 40 percent. The HRRR does weaken the complex after 3 hours as CIN increases but if this does not happen PoPs would have to be increased a bit higher. Large amounts of CAPE would support the threat of a strong storm with gusty winds, but would bet storms would be in a somewhat weakened state before arriving to the CWA. The focus then turns west and our northern CWA could get clipped by this system after 2 AM and will keep 30-40 PoPs for the northern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country for this. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD... Isolated TSRA has developed on the Plateau and Hill Country but should stay clear of all terminals this evening. Another complex in West Texas is expected to develop late tonight and push east towards South Central Texas, but should also avoid terminals. Thus, VFR is expected to prevail throughout the next 24 hours. However, some periodic cloud cover at 600 and 1200 ft may be possible around 12Z for the I-35 sites. Amendments may be needed around this time if coverage becomes more extensive than anticipated. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ UPDATE... Made some updates to reorient PoPs for the remainder of the afternoon and in the tonight period. Cu field is non-existent along Highway 90 and have removed the mention of PoPs for most of this region and this includes San Antonio. Also lowered PoPs by 10 percent for areas near and east of Austin as cu field there is not too good looking for now. The best area of surface convergence remains in the northern Hill Country and Edwards Plateau where storms have initiated and increased PoPs a bit there. MLCAPE values around 2,500 J/kg will support the threat of localized severe updrafts within multicellular clusters given the lack of deep layer shear. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... A cold front was stretched across the northern part of our CWA. This front is beginning to stall and will move slowly to the south tonight. We expect this front to produce some showers and thunderstorms as it moves through mainly across the northern half of the area. The airmass the front is moving into is very warm and moist and instability will be high. SPC has included our CWA in the marginal outlook for tonight and storms could be strong to severe with the high instability. The most likely threat from severe storms tonight will be strong winds. Monday an upper level shortwave trough will move across North Texas/Oklahoma and there will be low chances for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern part of the area. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Tuesday the subtropical ridge will build back over the region suppressing any convection. The ridge will dominate over South Texas through the end of the period with no rain chances during this period. Temperatures will continue to be above normal through the week with highs in the middle 90s to near 105. A slight shift in the low level flow may bring temperatures down a couple of degrees for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 97 74 98 75 / 30 20 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 96 73 98 74 / 30 20 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 98 73 99 73 / 20 10 - 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 95 72 97 74 / 30 30 10 - 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 102 75 105 77 / 20 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 95 73 97 75 / 40 30 10 - 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 98 72 100 73 / 10 - 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 73 99 74 / 20 20 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 96 74 97 75 / 40 30 10 - 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 98 75 99 76 / 10 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 98 74 100 75 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3 Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Through Monday night) Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Latest upper air analysis shows a trough moving northeast over the Four Corners Region. Downstream from the trough a large area of cloud cover continues moving northeast. RAP reanalysis shows another short wave trough beginning to form on the lee of the Rockies. For the rest of today expect the trough over Eastern Colorado to continue deepening. Lift will sweep out ahead of the trough and over the western part of the forecast area during the latter half of the afternoon. Frontogenesis will also increase, mainly over Cheyenne County CO in the late afternoon. During the late afternoon am expecting the best chance for rainfall due to the strong frontogenesis in place. The HRRR is bringing in rainfall during the early afternoon, but this seems too early based on other data sources. Therefore have delayed the start of the rainfall to mid afternoon over the far western part of Cheyenne County. This evening frontogenesis shifts south of the forecast area and lift also declines. Am expecting rainfall to diminish, possibly end by mid evening, with rainfall possibly continuing south of the forecast area where the better lift will be. Overnight frontogenesis will move back north into the eastern half of the forecast area as the upper level short wave trough deepens. Based on the various runs/variations of the HRRR and other near term data, have the highest confidence of rainfall redeveloping east of Highway 25. Due to little to no CAPE present in the sounding, have no mention of thunder in the forecast during the overnight hours. Monday morning there may be some lingering rainfall in Norton/Graham counties which will exit before mid morning. During the late morning and through the afternoon south winds will become breezy east of the Colorado border where a weak LLJ will mix to the ground. Am expecting the winds to diminish during the afternoon as the weak LLJ weakens further. West of the Colorado border winds will be light and variable where a surface trough will be located. There should be little to no cloud cover due to subsidence over the forecast area ahead of the next short wave ridge. Monday night will be dry as the short wave ridge moves overhead. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 GFS/ECMWF guidance remain in good agreement that an amplifying upper level ridge will persist over the southern Rockies and portions of the Southern/Central Plains through next weekend. Broadly speaking, above normal temperatures are expected to prevail. With the Tri-State area expected to be situated on the N/NW periphery of the ridge -- at the southern fringe of the westerlies -- convection /episodic severe weather/ will be possible. Diurnally backed low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a waxing/waning lee trough in eastern Colorado may support modest low-level moisture advection beneath the elevated mixed layer this week, suggesting a large reservoir of moderate/strong instability will be present over the High Plains. Although a strong cap may effectively preclude in-situ development -- particularly from Goodland south/east where forcing will essentially be absent, it may do little to stop upstream convection (e.g. an MCS) from propagating into/across the Tri-State area. With the above in mind, the most likely convective scenario appears to be `downstream propagation` -- which suggests an evening/overnight timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 500 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Both terminals are expected to see VFR conditions with a mix of mid/high clouds. Showers will move thru the Tri State region overnight. With low chances expected...VCSH in mentioned at this time. Winds for KGLD...SE 10-20kts thru 03z Monday...then S around 10kts. By 20z tomorrow afternoon...SW 10-20kts becoming SE around 10kts By 23z. LLWS 08z-12z Monday 200@40kts. Winds for KMCK...SE around 10kts thru 17z Monday...then S 15-25kts. By 23z...S around 10kts. LLWS 10z-13z Monday 190@35kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
636 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show elongated low pressure centered just north of Lake Superior. Deep cyclonic flow, with upper troughing overhead, continues over the western Great Lakes, creating scattered showers over northern WI, and isolated showers over central to east-central WI. Spotty showers should persist through late this afternoon. Back edge of the cloud shield resides over eastern MN, and though it is heading east, skies are likely to remain mostly cloudy or overcast into early this evening. Forecast concerns revolve around cloud trends followed by gusty winds. Tonight...Cyclonic flow will gradually lift off to the northeast during the evening. 925-850mb thermal troughing will remain present at 00z Mon, but will then shift northeast with the cyclonic flow. Low clouds will follow suit as well, with clearing expected to push into central WI by late evening, and far northeast WI after midnight. Suppose a few sprinkles or light showers could linger near the U.P. border early. Though skies will be clearing and have a cool airmass in place, a relatively tight pressure gradient will prevent temps from tanking, and should see lows ranging from the mid 40s over the northwoods to the low 50s over the southern Fox Valley. Monday...After a mostly sunny start, a weak cold front will drop into northern WI by late morning before slowly progressing south through the afternoon. Moisture will be extremely limited and will have a cap in place at 700mb that should suppress showers from forming, but progged soundings show some low level cape that should result in scattered cu popping in the afternoon, mainly over central and east-central WI. With plenty of sun and a moderating airmass, temps should warm into the low 70s over Vilas county to the upper 70s at Wisconsin Rapids. Bumped up wind gusts a tad due to more sunshine, deep mixing, and momentum transfer winds around 26-27 kts. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Through the upcoming work week, the mean flow to remain constant/ persistent with an upper trough over the West Coast, an upper ridge over the central U.S. and another upper trough over the northeast CONUS. This pattern would allow disturbances to top the ridge and move southeast into the Great Lakes bringing a couple of opportunities for precipitation. By next weekend, the western trough is forecast to begin moving into the Pacific Northwest/ northern Rockies and shift the upper ridge eastward toward the Great Lakes (although models differ a bit here on the strength of the ridge). The main forecast challenge remains trying to time these disturbances through northeast WI. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below normal Tuesday/Wednesday, then at or above normal thereafter. The cold front will continue to sag south through the rest of the forecast area Monday evening with just enough moisture to potentially squeeze out a little light rain over central/east- central WI. Instability is really weak and may drop the thunder wording. Otherwise, any precipitation should taper off after midnight as the front heads into southern WI and skies to be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Min temperatures to range from the lower to middle 40s far north, lower to middle 50s south. A weak area of high pressure will drop south into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, bringing mostly sunny skies and cool conditions to northeast WI. Prevailing north winds to help keep temperatures in check, along with a lake breeze turning winds to the east across east-central WI which would bring a cool marine layer inland. Max temperatures to be in the lower to middle 60s near Lake MI, around 70 degrees north and in the 70-75 degree range south. This high pressure is forecast to remain over the Great Lakes through Tuesday night, keeping our weather quiet for the time being. There may be an increase in high clouds into central WI toward daybreak ahead of a system topping the upper ridge to our west. Modest WAA will be underway by this time, thus min temperatures will not be as cool compared to Monday night across the north. Look for readings to mainly be in the middle 40s to around 50 degrees. This next system, consisting of a cold front and mid-level shortwave, is progged to move into the Upper MS Valley on Wednesday with the cold front just reaching far northwest WI by 00Z Thursday. There continues to be model differences with regards to the timing of this front with the ECMWF lagging about 6 hours behind the other models. This is enough of a difference to differentiate between a chance of showers/thunderstorms or a dry forecast. For now, prefer to keep the mention of a small pop in the afternoon, primarily across central WI. Otherwise, anticipate an increase in cloud cover through the day with max temperatures on Wednesday ranging from the lower to middle 60s near Lake MI, 70-73 degree range elsewhere. The cold front/shortwave combination should sweep into the western Great Lakes Wednesday night (either evening or overnight), therefore chance pops will suffice for now. There is enough instability (MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG & steep mid-level lapse rates) to sustain thunderstorm activity into the night, but severe potential looks minimal. A few lingering showers are possible into Thursday morning across east-central WI, otherwise an area of high pressure is expected to build into the region on Thursday and bring decreasing clouds to northeast WI. Despite a northwest wind across the area (away from Lake MI), max temperatures will be able to reach the lower 70s near Lake MI, middle 70s to around 80 degrees inland. High pressure to remain parked over the Great Lakes region through friday, thereby providing for quiet weather conditions with temperatures slightly above normal. This would bring max temperatures on Friday to around 70 degrees near Lake MI, middle to upper 70s elsewhere. The forecast becomes a bit more muddled by the start of next weekend as the models differ on the location/movement of the next disturbance topping the upper ridge. One solution takes the bulk of any showers/thunderstorms south of the forecast area. The other solution takes an area of showers/thunderstorms across northeast WI Saturday through Saturday night. Have followed the consensus solution which does bring a small chance pop to the region during this time. High pressure is then expected to build southward from Canada next Sunday and send a drier/slightly cooler air mass into WI. Temperatures by Sunday should drop closer to normal. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Low clouds across the area will shift east this evening as moisture and am 850 mb thermal trough exit the area to the east. Winds will lose their gusty character with the loss of surface heating, but should remain strong enough aloft to generate low-end LLWS. Surface winds will become quite gusty again Monday as the mixed layer deepens during the morning, otherwise generally good flying conditions are expected for the latter portion of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Gusty west winds remain on track to diminish under 20 kts by mid-evening over the Bay and Lake. However, wind gusts should increase again to near small craft advisory criteria (25 kts) along the Bay and Lake Michigan shoreline on Monday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......AK AVIATION.......Skowronski MARINE.........MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
920 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Impulse in the southern Rockies continues to make slow progress into the plains at this time. Any showers associated with it are weakening as they move into the plains. The elevated showers are fighting the dry low layers currently across the plains and think this trend will continue as the impulse moves out into the wrn plains overnight. Latest RAP shows most of the moisture transport associated with the impulse staying well to the west of the forecast area for most of the overnight hours. So have decided to cut back, or slow down of the pop chances for central KS overnight, as mid level impulse will continue to have trouble overcoming dry low layers. Could see some sprinkles or very light showers across portions of central KS by sunrise on Mon, so will keep small chances for the morning hours on Mon. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 More normal temperatures have returned to the region and will be in the region for the short term. The main challenge for the short term will be the precipitation chances for the Monday afternoon and evening. Many of the short range models do hint at a chance for some shower and thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon while others are much drier. Current water vapor imagery shows a significant complex of shower and thunderstorms over much of Southern Colorado south to the El Paso Texas. This area of thunderstorm activity is progged to move toward and into the region during the night tonight and Monday but, it is not expected to hold together. This would provide some decent mid-level moisture into the region Monday afternoon and evening. While buoyancy is not expected to be very good, there looks to be enough instability to permit some slight chances for thunderstorm activity. Due to the very dry air in the low levels, any thunderstorms that do develop are not likely to produce much in the way of rain but could produce some gusty winds below severe levels for a time. Tuesday and Wednesday, will be mostly sunny as the mid and upper level ridge builds into the region. This ridge will also allow light southerly flow to return to the region. Temperatures will once again climb toward 90 and are likely to get a little above 90 on Wednesday. Metzger .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 The extended range looks to remain well above normal with temperatures into the 90s for the most part. The weather does look to get a little interesting in the extended. There are a number of disturbances and weak frontal systems that appear to move through the region toward the end of the week. For the most part, this looks like general thunderstorm activity with a few strong storms possible. Confidence remains low as there is no consensuses among the GFS and ECMWF ensembles at this time. Confidence on temperature though is moderate to high as it does appear the heat will return with mid 90s likely by next weekend. Metzger && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The main concern will be increasing mid clouds from the SW US moving into the plains. This increased mid level moisture may also lead to a few showers developing/moving into central KS by early Mon morning. Dry low layers may lead to the initial showers being mainly sprinkles, so will go with VCSH for KRSL and KGBD. As Mon progresses, increasing mid level moisture will lead to a chance of SHRA and possibly some VCTS for portions of central KS. So will add a VCTS for Mon afternoon for the KRSL and KGBD taf for this chance. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 62 84 62 88 / 0 10 30 10 Hutchinson 60 83 61 89 / 10 20 20 0 Newton 61 82 61 88 / 10 10 20 0 ElDorado 60 82 61 86 / 0 10 30 10 Winfield-KWLD 60 84 62 87 / 0 10 30 10 Russell 61 83 59 91 / 20 30 10 0 Great Bend 61 82 59 89 / 10 30 10 0 Salina 61 86 61 91 / 10 20 10 0 McPherson 60 83 60 89 / 10 20 20 0 Coffeyville 59 84 62 86 / 0 0 20 10 Chanute 59 85 61 86 / 0 0 20 10 Iola 59 84 62 86 / 0 10 10 10 Parsons-KPPF 59 84 62 86 / 0 0 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...BDK SHORT TERM...ELM LONG TERM...ELM AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
923 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .UPDATE...Scattered storms developed along the Fl west coast seabreeze and moved east this afternoon/evening. High instability and CAPEs(near 5000 J/kg) provided an environment to produce damaging winds and large hail. Convection has since dissipated this evening near the east coast. Additional storms over central Ga ahead of a cold front may reach the Altamaha River area around midnight with the latest HRRR model run showing a weakening trend. Temperatures will be warm overnight will lows expected to be mostly in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail tonight. A brief shower or thunderstorm still possible at SGJ til 02z when convection should dissipate. Patchy fog and low clouds possible late tonight/early Monday morning mainly at GNV and SGJ where rainfall occurred today. && .MARINE...West southwest winds will strengthen tonight ahead of a slowly approaching cold front now over north Ga. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria expected for offshore zones with winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rip Currents: Low risk. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 92 63 91 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 76 91 73 88 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 75 94 67 92 / 20 30 10 0 SGJ 76 92 73 90 / 30 50 20 0 GNV 75 93 68 93 / 20 50 10 0 OCF 74 91 68 91 / 20 40 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Zibura/Shashy/McGinnis
convection will possibly develop. The previous forecast discussion
update expanded quite well on specific instability parameters that
are currently in place. Those conditions are still in place and quite extreme. However, it`ll be a challenge for any storms to realize that potential. Strong mid level inversion has been and will continue to limit convection initiation until the pre-frontal trough reaches the area rather than right now as global models indicated the past several days. The HRRR seems to loosely have the best reasonable solution attm for the next 8 hours or so. Scattered showers and storms will develop from north to south across the CWA from late afternoon through early evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds and hail the main potential impacts. High dewpoint depression will keep storms elevated and keep tornadoes from being a threat (a couple funnels may be visible but won`t reach the ground). LONG TERM... The forecast going into next week is more challenging than the short term due to model disagreement. The GFS suggests a drier forecast due to a second shortwave moving through the southeastern US Tuesday, which will keep moisture pushed offshore, then quickly bringing the ridge centered west of the area closer. This would limit convection to isolate/scattered. Although the ECMWF is only slightly different with relation to position of ridges and troughs, it is enough to keep daily rain chances in play with coverage more along the lines of scattered to numerous. It suggests the ridging aloft will be weaker which will allow diurnal convection. Didn`t make too many big changes to the forecast from the previous which is a blend between the 2 models. MEFFER AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for the general prevailing conditions, but areas of scattered TSRA could produce brief very low VSBY in torrential downpours, lower CIGS and wind gusts over 30 knots. Have gone with a few hours TEMPO group at the highest confidence locations during the late afternoon to early evening hours which include KMSY, KNEW, KASD and KGPT, however, will likely have to fine tune the timing and duration with amendments. 22/TD MARINE... An approaching upper level disturbance and weak cold front was resulting in a modest pressure gradient supporting westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots, down from early this morning. Winds could still rise up near 15 knots or slightly higher again late this afternoon through late evening as the cold front approaches the coast. Will have to monitor for clusters or lines of north to south moving, scattered thunderstorms that may still develop in advance of the cold front that may impact the tidal lakes, sounds and coastal waters from late afternoon well into the evening hours. Strong wind gusts of 34 to 50 knots will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated near 15 knots both with the westerly winds ahead of and northerly winds behind the front late Sunday night before a quick dropoff in speeds to 10 knots or less by midday Monday that should continue into Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should produce mostly south to west winds around 10 knots or less through the middle of the week. 22/TD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 89 65 89 / 20 0 0 10 BTR 70 91 68 92 / 20 0 0 20 ASD 72 91 69 91 / 30 0 0 20 MSY 76 91 74 92 / 30 10 0 20 GPT 73 90 71 90 / 30 0 0 10 PQL 71 90 66 90 / 30 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
946 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .UPDATE... Severe Thunderstorm Watch 154 has been issued for the southern row of the forecast area and points further south into MAF and SJT forecast areas. A large scale MCS has been moving across central to eastern New Mexico this evening with additional development across the Permian Basin. Satelitte and radar trends are showing the northern end of the MCS struggling with such dry inflow air after having moved off the high terrain. The southern part of the forecast area marks the interface to significantly higher dew point temperatures and thus to the potential for severe weather and meaningful precipitation amounts. The HRRR seems to handle this evolution the best. Have updated the forecast to insert a severe mention co-located with the watch and to increase PoPs slightly. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to reach PVW and LBB around 05Z then clear to the east around 09Z. Did not include a TEMPO at CDS as confidence was not high enough that the storms will make it that far north and east. Winds will shift to the south-southwest late Monday morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough, currently located just west of the CWA, will continue to move east-northeast across the CWA this evening. While the best support for thunderstorm development will be located in central and eastern NM, the shortwave could provide just enough forcing to help storms develop late in the day and slide SE into the South Plains. Most guidance ramps up convection and moisture levels during the latter part of the evening and moves a thunderstorm complex through the CWA overnight. Although, uncertainty continues to surround the exact timing of the development of the convection and how much precip will accumulate, we are fairly optimistic that much of the South Plains and southern Rolling Plains will see (much needed) rain. Thus, have gone a head and bumped up PoPs for these areas. Monday`s forecast is of two scenarios could play out and both will be highly dependent on what happens overnight in early Monday morning. The first scenario: should the convection develop this afternoon and track across the FA overnight as forecasted, then it is possible that in the wake of the convection the environment across the eastern Rolling Plains tomorrow afternoon will be too stable for afternoon convection. Second scenario: IF, the forecast does NOT play out as mentioned above then, it is possible that as the shortwave rounds the northeastern portion of the upper level ridge, thunderstorms could develop across the eastern Rolling Plains. MUCAPE, shear and PWs will ample enough that if storms do develop a few could become strong to severe and more organized with large hail and strong winds. By sunset tomorrow, any storms will be east of the CWA. Given the uncertainty surrounding today and tomorrow`s forecast and progged soundings at KCDS showing the cap holding through the day tomorrow, have gone ahead and left PoPs where they stand. They may need to be increased or decreased as the forecast evolves overnight. Tuesday through the weekend the upper-level ridge will once again dominate the weather across the region. Another round of very hot and dry days with triple-digit heat is in store for the entire area. With highs of 103F-104F expected Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will be slim-to-none for the week but, as the ridge axis moves eastward late next weekend and an upper trough starts to develop across the Pacific, precipitation chances could return to the area. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
714 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a negatively tilted trof extending from ne Saskatchewan thru the Great Lakes region. Being on the cyclonic side of the jet on the backside of the trof, abundant cloud cover has dominated the fcst area today along with some shra. Shra are especially concentrated btwn Munising and Escanaba. Clouds have kept temps down mostly in the 50s though temps did rise into the 60s s central where some brief breaks in the cloud cover allowed for increased insolation. Some Lake Superior lakeside locations are in the 40s. Well to the w on the anticyclonic side of the upper jet and out of the 850mb thermal trof, mostly sunny skies are noted across western MN and the Dakotas, a sign of what`s to come for Mon, at least over western and s central Upper MI. The mid-level trof overhead will drift eastward tonight and Mon with a broad mid-level low taking shape roughly along the Ontario/Quebec border Mon morning, slowing the progress. As the trof drifts e and deep layer q-vector divergence overspreads the area, expect -shra to end from w to e thru the night into early Mon morning. There should be clearing overnight, at least over the w half of Upper MI. Low temps will be in the 40s across the board. On Mon, upper jet associated with the mid-level trof/low to the e will only shift as far e as western and s central Upper MI, and the 850mb thermal trof will be held up over roughly the ne half of Upper MI. As a result, expect mostly sunny skies from the western into s central fcst area with gradually more cloud cover the farther n and e you go from there. With 35-45kt winds noted at 850mb, deep mixing will lead to a windy day, similar to what is currently being observed over the eastern Dakotas/western MN. Even over the e where there will be more cloud cover, won`t take much building of mixed layer to tap into stronger winds. Wind gusts of 25-35mph should be common across the area from mid morning thru the aftn. Locations exposed to the brisk w to wnw wind across Lake Superior won`t get out of the 40s Mon, e of Munising in particular. Temps will range up to around 70F near the WI/MI state line. Fortunately, since green-up has progressed nicely and adequate rainfall has occurred recently, fire wx issues are not anticipated. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 414 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018 No major weather impacts expected in the long-term portion of the forecast. Overall pretty quiet in the long term. Could see some rain showers Wed into Thu as a shortwave passes through the region, but confidence is low due to uncertainty with where that shortwaves tracks. Similar story next weekend, yet with even great uncertainty. Blended initialization handled the forecast quite well, so didn`t need to make any changes to that. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 705 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018 Deeper moisture associated with low pres centered just n of Lake Superior will begin to push e of the TAF sites this evening. Expect improvement this evening as drier air begins to push into the area. All terminals should improve to VFR by or around 06z. VFR conditions will then continue thru the end of this fcst period. Wnw winds will be gusty to 20-30kt at KCMX thru the period. KIWD/KSAW will likely see gusts to 20-30kt Mon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018 Fog that formed over Lake Superior last night is locally dense, and best estimate from webcams is that the largest coverage of dense fog is currently over roughly the e half of the lake. Marine dense fog advy that was issued earlier has been extended to 02z. Increasing wnw winds this evening should aid dispersion of dense fog and allow for improving vis as the evening progresses. As for the winds, as broad low pres consolidates e of Lake Superior, w to wnw winds will increase tonight thru Mon. Gusts into the 20- 30kt range over portions of western Lake Superior this evening will spread to eastern Lake Superior during the night. While winds will settle back to under 20kt over western Lake Superior for Mon, winds will remain brisk to 20-30kt over the e half of the lake. A few gale force gusts to around 35kt will be possible at some of the high obs platforms Mon. Winds will diminish Mon night, and by Tue aftn winds will be under 15kt across Lake Superior. As a cold front moves across the Upper Lakes, winds will increase a bit later Wed into Thu, but should remain mostly under 20kt. Winds should then remain under 20kt on Fri. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ249>251- 266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Voss MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry, warm weather through most of the afternoon, before high pressure breaks down with breezy winds and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Some thunderstorms will become strong over southeast Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains. Breezy and cooler conditions expected on Monday. A dry weather pattern with a warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday. Anticipate more unsettled and cooler conditions for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Made some minor adjustments to precip chances along the incoming cold front in the east slopes of the northern Cascades for this afternoon. Models also show up to around 500 J/kg of CAPE for late in the afternoon, so I also added a slight chance of thunderstorms. I am not all that confident about thunderstorms in the Cascades as higher cloud cover is beginning to thicken up. Best chances for thunderstorms will continue to be over southeast WA and into the central ID Panhandle. The HRRR model has been consistent with each run of quick moving thunderstorms moving off of the northeast Blue Mtns and track across the L-C Valley, Pullman and continue to track up toward St. Maries. The HRRR suggests that damaging outflow winds will be the main hazard with these thunderstorms. Wind gusts from thunderstorms will be capable of knocking over trees and causing powerlines damage. /SVH && .AVIATION... ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KPUW AND KLWS THIS EVENING... 00Z TAFS: A cold front will be pushing through the region tonight/early Monday. This evening expect isold/sct -shra/tsra, developing over Oregon and spreading northeast SE WA/ID evening before starting to exit between late evening and overnight. Highest confidence for thunderstorms impacts will be around LWS and PUW between 01-05Z. Outflow winds could be severe, between 50-60kts. Additional convection is possible north-central WA into the Columbia Basin between 00-04Z, then over extreme eastern WA and north ID, including near GEG/SFF/COE from 03-09Z. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe, but strong erratic wind gusts will be possible. Monday will be mostly dry, with limited shower chances around the mountains. In general breezy conditions are expected this evening and then again Monday afternoon. /J. Cote` && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 82 49 66 44 69 46 / 0 40 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 82 50 66 43 69 45 / 0 50 0 0 0 0 Pullman 80 48 65 41 67 45 / 0 60 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 88 55 71 48 74 50 / 0 70 10 0 0 0 Colville 82 51 70 41 72 44 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 80 49 67 41 68 42 / 0 40 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 81 48 64 43 66 44 / 0 80 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 85 52 73 45 75 46 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 80 54 69 48 74 50 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 80 52 71 45 73 46 / 20 40 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
857 PM PDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .UPDATE...A cold front that crossed the area and brought scattered thunderstorms and showers this afternoon and early evening has just about moved out of the area and the threat of thunderstorms has ended except perhaps in far eastern Wallowa county. Light showers linger on over the higher terrain of the eastern mountains. HRRR and RAP show another batch of showers moving through that area starting in the next hour or two and radar trends show an increase in returns. Have cut back on pops to areas west and north of the Blue Mountains but kept slight chance to low end chance of showers over northeast Oregon before tapering it off overnight. Have also made some minor sky cover adjustments. Made some wind adjustments as well to match current trends. Winds will be decreasing but will continue at 10 to 20 mph in the Columbia Gorge and Kittitas Valley. Also made a few minor temperature changes. Otherwise forecast is in good shape. Forecast update already out. Perry && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM PDT Sun Jun 3 2018/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...A cold front will continue to move through the region late this afternoon and this evening. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to affect our eastern zones during this time frame. Deepest convective potential still looks to extend from the Blue mountains east to Wallowa county, and still expect this area to see scattered coverages. Isolated coverages will extend from Crook county northeast to the east end of the Columbia Basin, and east into Grant county. A few of these storms have the potential to produce gusty winds and small hail. These stronger storms will mostly likely be seen over portions of Grant, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa, Walla Walla and Columbia counties. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions, though a few showers will occur over the Washington Cascade east slopes. Winds will continue to increase, becoming breezy to locally windy, as the front moves through this afternoon and evening. Storms should end by midnight, with any lingering showers continuing to move out overnight. The region will be under a westerly flow Monday and Tuesday. Expect mostly dry conditions, though there may a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain of Wallowa county Monday. Winds will be locally breezy Monday afternoon and evening, but should be lighter Tuesday. Temps will be near to slightly below seasonal Monday and Tuesday. The flow looks to turn more southwesterly by Wednesday with dry but warmer conditions expected across the area. 90 LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday...Southwesterly flow with increasing moisture and instability will begin over OR and WA Wednesday afternoon. Initially moisture will be too limited for showers though clouds will increase. By Thursday afternoon a weak short wave, orographic effects and daytime heating will enhance the instability and moisture from Grant to Wallowa County and the Blue Mountains. This will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. The short wave will shift east Friday but enough moisture and instability will linger in Wallowa County that a few thunderstorms are possible. Friday night an upper level trough and associated cold front will approach the coast. Saturday the approaching front bringing showers to eastern WA and OR. The marine push of cooler air and cloud cover will provide more stable conditions so thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures will be in the 70s mountains and 80s lower elevations Thursday and Friday...then drop back into the 60s and 70s Saturday and Sunday. Winds will also increase Saturday with the approaching system. Coonfield AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Mid/high level clouds associated with a cold front are moving over the area this evening. Isolated TS are occurring south and east of KBDN and KRDM to KLGD. Isolated TS are expected to develop over the John Day-Ochoco Highlands and Blue Mountains and move northeast this evening. These storms will be near PDT (00-03Z) ALW (01-03Z) but are more likely to remain east of the TAF sites. Westerly winds winds will increase behind the cold front this evening 10-20KT with locally higher gusts. Outside of thunderstorms conditions will remain VFR through the period. 76 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 87 52 72 44 / 10 20 0 0 ALW 90 53 73 45 / 10 20 0 0 PSC 91 52 77 45 / 10 10 0 0 YKM 84 50 75 44 / 0 10 0 0 HRI 90 53 76 45 / 10 10 0 0 ELN 83 49 68 46 / 10 10 0 0 RDM 88 43 71 35 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 89 48 69 39 / 30 40 0 0 GCD 89 47 70 40 / 20 30 0 0 DLS 80 55 74 48 / 10 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ 83/76/76
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
222 PM PDT Sun Jun 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A zephyr breeze will continue into the evening with a couple thunderstorms possible near the Oregon Border. Weak low pressure passes by to the north tomorrow with breezy conditions. Warm conditions will continue through the week with typical afternoon west to southwest winds. Another area of low pressure is expected late in the week with gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... Main change this afternoon was to add isolated thunderstorms north of Susanville and Gerlach in the Lassen Peak Convergence Zone. Well above average temps and convergence downwind of Lassen Peak will result in weak to moderate instability. Latest models are hinting at it with 400 J/kg CAPE, with the HRRR showing a couple storms firing. Any rain amounts would be light and while fires could start from the lightning, fuels are still curing. Otherwise few changes with the low moving into Washington tomorrow. Gusty winds are still expected with gusts of 30-40 mph and a few degrees of cooling. The Lake Wind Advisories will continue for tomorrow afternoon and evening on area lakes. Tuesday, the low passes by with a weak zonal flow in its wake. The flow then backs more to the southwest for Wednesday through Friday as a low deepens upstream in the East Pacific. Temperatures will remain warm and several degrees above average. Typical afternoon zephyr winds from the west to southwest will occur with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. The East Pacific low may move onshore bodily, as shown in the EC, or in weaker pieces as shown by the GFS. The EC would support cooler temperatures and some showers north of I-80 while the GFS is dry and warmer with little drop in temperatures. Have gone with a compromise as the ensembles means show the trough, but do not favor one model over the other. X && .AVIATION... VFR conditions to continue the next several days. Any isolated thunderstorm or two is expected north of KSVE through 03Z, otherwise dry. Gusty winds the main concern with peak gusts to 25 kts today and up to 35 kts Monday afternoon and evening between 18-04Z. Some mtn wave turbulence can be expected, but no LLWS due to the well mixed atmosphere. X && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Monday NVZ001-003-004. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Monday NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Monday CAZ071-073. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM PDT Monday CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...