Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/01/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
952 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A deep, southerly flow of very moist, tropical air will combine
with a slow moving frontal system to bring several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms right into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
It`s been a lesson in mesoscale meteorology today with
convection that fired in the column of unstable air over western
PA falling apart at the hands of a wedge of cool/stable air
over central and eastern PA.
As of 7PM, more showers and storms are moving and dying through
the NW Mountains, and from portions of Bedford county east into
the lower Susq Valley.
Meso analysis shows the stable airmass stubbornly hanging in
over about the NERN half of my forecast area so the much
anticipated tropical downpours have not happened except for a
few localized areas of Cambria and Clearfield counties.
The HRRR does drag scattered showers eastward, but weakens them
steadily as they invade the cold air damming wedge. While the
tropical downpours don`t seem likely, a few showers cannot be
ruled out as remnant convection moves through the region.
Much of the night, the radar could be covered only sparsely
with light showers, if any at all. Overnight mins will hang in
the 60s again, but a little cooler than Thurs AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Friday should feature a repeat of the convection with the
potential for numerous, slowly progressive gully-washers
as we will still be in the soupy airmass with PWATS close to 2
inches.
A significant upper trough will slide in from the west. The
severe threat is lower with less deep-layer shear. Drier air
will attempt to push into the state behind a cold front
associated with the trough. Therefore, it should dry out Fri
evening over the NW, but showers will likely linger into the
night in the south and east prior to the weakening front
arriving there. Refer to hydro section for flooding thoughts.
Max temps should be 5-8F higher than today (reaching the upper
70s to mid 80s) as a result of some decent breaks forming in
the cloud cover, that should once again be quite expansive with
low ceilings through the mid morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Model and ensemble guidance offer a reasonably similar large
scale pattern evolution over the Mid Atlantic region this period,
trending toward more amplitude/longevity with a developing
upper level low/trough. The initial upper trough should migrate
across the Appalachians Friday night before closing off near
the Delmarva Saturday night. The 500mb pattern takes on a mini
Rex Block configuration before another upstream trough rotates
southeast from the Great Lakes into the Northeast through early
next week. Smaller scale perturbations embedded with the mean
flow begin to complicate the upper pattern by increasing model
spread and forecast uncertainty later next week. That being
said, confidence is better than average in weather conditions
staying "unsettled" with repeated/daily rain chances. It looks
difficult to string together a few dry days. Temperatures will
trending relatively cooler with the upper level trough influence
holding readings near to below average for early June. The
latest blends favor max rain potential over south-central and
southeastern parts of central PA this weekend. Some moderate to
locally heavy amounts are possible.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
01Z RADAR still has scattered showers through the Southeast
along with a line of showers approaching DUJ from the west.
Restrictions from SHRA will be mainly MVFR with TSRA not
expected. The latest HRRR has the convection dissipating as it
continues to move eastward. This convection should diminish in
both intensity and areal coverage by 04Z. Light wind, partial
clearing and wet ground will then likely lead to patchy fog
tonight into Friday morning. With light upslope flow in the east
IFR to LIFR is possible at LNS and maybe MDT considering the
light flow and low level moisture.
Conditions will improve 13Z to 15Z with another round of
showers and thunderstorms possible Friday after 19Z.
.Outlook...
Fri...AM fog possible. Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.
Sat...AM low cigs possible Laurel Highlands and N Mtns.
Sun...AM low cigs possible, mainly KJST/KAOO.
Mon...Patchy AM fog possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Precipitable Water values in the 1.5-2.1" range today will dip
slightly tonight, then climb again to nearly 2 inches for
Friday. The anomalous moisture and short MBE vectors could put
the region as risk for flash flooding, esp in the S and W this
aftn/eve and the SW Fri. WPC excessive rain outlooks place the
SLGT risk over the SW today and again Friday. The drawback to
the flash flood threat will be that the HREF members all point
to storms which should be moving along steadily, not training.
Torrential rain for a brief time, or repeated heavy rain may
lead to local problems. It could be that the rain today may not
much of an impact but additional rain Fri could cause problems
as the ground will soak up less rain. But, the flash flooding
threat looks, for the time being, to be a little less dire than
it looked yesterday. Holding with mentions of +RA and poss
localized flooding in the HWO.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Lambert
NEAR TERM...La Corte/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
Lowered tonight low a bit...mainly in the east. Scattered storm
continues in the northwest zones this evening. No other changes at
this update.
UPDATE Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
Tweaked pops for tonight with storms already developing/moving into
Towner county. Also tweaked temps and dewpoints. No other changes at
this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
H5 ridge axis is centrally roughly over our CWA, with southwest flow
over the northern Rockies and western ND. A stalled frontal zone is
in place near the International Border, with surface high pressure
along the Red River Valley. Td have lingering in the upper 50s and
lower 60s and with temperatures warming to the 80F range ML CAPE has
increased to around 1500 J/KG according to RAP Mesoanalysis.
Subsidence has helped inhibit precip potential through the afternoon
period.
This evening-Friday: Showers/thunderstorms developing within
southwest diffluent flow over western ND/eastern Montana are shown
by CAMs to transition eastward towards our CWA by late this evening
through Friday morning as trough deepens and shifts eastward out of
the northwest US. Instability drops off quickly ahead of this (MU
CAPE below 1000 J/KG), so while shower/thunderstorm chances may
increase over northeast ND severe potential is limited at least
through Fri morning. LLJ develops around 15Z Friday supporting
increasing winds at the surface. If this overrides lingering cold
pool as WAA and instability begins to increase redevelopment may
occur in our north/northwest leading to ongoing
showers/thunderstorms through the day (and current CAMs are showing
this).
This ongoing activity could disrupt surface pattern for later
Friday afternoon complicating forecast for potential severe weather
later in the day and may shift better severe potential further
west/southwest. Development of LLJ ahead of approaching trough
should support increasing effective shear values, but instability
(and whether is it primarily elevated) are much less certain through
Friday afternoon. Surface obs/satellite trends will need to be
monitored tomorrow for placement of favorable instability axis. In
any case better severe potential is current favored by the late
afternoon closer to 00Z in our west.
.LONG TERM...(Friday evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
The main story for this period will be the strong to severe
thunderstorm potential Friday night into Saturday. A quieter period
of weather Sunday through Tuesday with some chances for showers and
possibly thunderstorms during the middle of next week. Temperatures
cooler during this period and closer to normal than the above normal
temperatures of the past few weeks of May.
There are two main impacts for Friday night into Saturday: excessive
rainfall and severe (mainly wind and hail). High precipitable water
values are present in the models with NAEFS R-Climate percentiles
above 90 percent across eastern North Dakota and parts of northwest
Minnesota. In the R-Climate there are also areas at the 99.5
percentile. This combined with WPC has eastern North Dakota in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall. Heavy rain could be localized
due to convection in the area so rain totals could vary significantly
from location to location. The areas that do get rain could have
flooding concerns though, especially in locations that got heavy
rain earlier this week.
For the severe threat the biggest risk area will be to our west in
central North Dakota but storms that fire to our west could survive
into our area and cause severe concerns. This is driven by an upper
level short wave that moves into the Northern Plains. The best
conditions will be in southeast North Dakota where ML CAPE values
near 3000 J/kg will be possible. This combined with 0 to 6 km bulk
shear of 40 to 50 knots will provide an environment favorable for
maintaining strong storms. In current model guidance the shear is
favorable in the Red River Valley and east but the CAPE does not
extend very far to the east. This is why southeast North Dakota has
the best chance as it has more CAPE than areas to the north in model
guidance. Current models suggest that the convective mode will
become linear as it moves east into our region from central North
Dakota. Confidence in convective mode will increase as we get closer
to the event as the CAMs will begin to resolve more of the system.
Low level shear is rather strong with values in the NAM 3km of 150
m2/s2 for 0 to 1 km SRH which means low level rotation could occur
and lead to tornadoes. Friday evening and night will be the main
time for potential severe weather. Saturday additional showers and
thunderstorms will be present as the surface low moves through
southern Manitoba but severe weather is unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
MVFR conditions were located over north central MN roughly north of
a line from Kelliher to Badger MN. Elsewhere thunderstorms over
Towner county may produce MVFR-IFR conditions overnight. Precip
expected to affect the northwest zones this evening and more of the
western zones toward morning. Expect MVFR conditions to remain over
the northeast zones overnight and Fri morning.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
951 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Warm and winds still up at 5-10 knots with gusts at few locations.
Current forecast looking close in the short term so only cosmetic
changes to the skies and dewpoints. Sunday still looking
interesting along the southward sagging frontal boundary.
Primarily looks like a 2 pm to 10 pm window of opportunity. Model
soundings certainly support strong gusty winds with abundant CAPE
and minimal CIN. May be flirting with severe potential for that
period.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions this evening and tonight may briefly drop to MVFR
as stratocumulus develop near the coast and spread inland. Have
pushed up onset for TEMPO groups reflecting this based on low
level condensation pressure deficits in hi-res guidance and trends
in HRRR ceilings, with 04-10Z appearing to be the best window for
impacts within the 00Z TAF package. Outside of intermittent
ceilings, a slightly weaker surface pressure gradient tonight may
also create brief windows for patchy MVFR fog development at LBX,
CXO, and possibly SGR. Confidence was not high enough in
development to include in the TAFs with this issuance. Expect VFR
to prevail at all terminals after sunrise. Otherwise, southerly
winds 10-20 knots now are expected to drop below 10 knots by mid
to late evening, increasing into the 10-15 knot range by mid-
morning.
Huffman
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018/
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]...
Radar imagery paints a quiet picture over SE TX this afternoon,
with only the occasional widely scattered shower pushing inland
producing a light sprinkle or two over the coastal counties.
Heights continue to rise as surface high pressure builds in from
the east, also allowing the surface winds to turn out of the
southeast. Aloft, the upper-level ridge is nudging northward and
should eventually shift over Texas as we move into the weekend.
Northwesterly flow around this upper level region of high pressure
is helping to provide a strong cap or pocket of dry air in the
mid to upper layers of the atmosphere. This strong cap will also
act to hinder further development of any light showers that
develop this afternoon, as well as on Friday. A similar set up is
in store for tomorrow, with high temperatures a touch warmer by a
degree or two tomorrow into the mid 90s due to the stronger
influence of this upper level ridge.
Hathaway
LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
As a surface low tracks eastward across north Texas Saturday,
surface winds will turn more southwesterly sandwiched between this
region of low pressure and the surface high located just east the
region. This wind shift could help to lower dewpoints a touch
Saturday, advecting in slightly drier air. Forecast soundings
show slightly lower precipitable water values (PWs) Saturday
ranging between 1.2-1.4 inches. The boundary located over
northeast Texas Saturday night slowly transitions southeastward
Sunday, increasing our PoPs to a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly north of I-10 Sunday afternoon. In the most
recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF, this boundary looks to have
slowed, stalling along the coast by Monday morning. There will
not be much of a change in the overall airmass behind this
feature, besides potentially a small dip in dewpoints bringing in
slightly drier air for a short period of time Monday. This
lingering boundary Monday, could also help to provide a slight
chance for showers for showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will remain above normal through
next week. High temperatures Monday through Thursday are expected
to rise into the mid to upper 90s, with low temperatures falling
into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Hathaway
MARINE...
Will raise the caution flags again tonight for the offshore waters
as winds speeds slightly increase into the 15-20kt range. They
should taper off before sunrise. Otherwise, expect light
to moderate onshore winds to continue. Winds will become more
southwesterly this weekend as surface high pressure over the east
central Gulf expands further westward. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 77 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 88 82 89 81 / 10 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Friday for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...45
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1047 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
A few thunderstorms popped up in Southern Middle TN this evening
from an outflow boundary that came from convection NW of the area.
Despite loosing some daytime heating, there was enough instability in
place that these storms quickly became severe. Dime to quarter sized
hail was reported in Franklin Co TN, while small hail and a downed
tree was reported down in Moore Co.
These storms have since weakened and moved out of the forecast area.
However, there will be another round of showers and storms moving in
after midnight. The convective activity currently in the Mid MS
Valley will develop into a line as it sinks SE overnight as a
shortwave trough swings into the region. Models are in a disagreement
on the arrival time for this next round with the HRRR having a
faster solution of 09Z and the NAM on the slower side of early
tomorrow afternoon. Regardless, the line will be moving into warm,
moist and unstable air. Tonight`s temps will be mild in the lower 70s
which could flirt with record high mins:
MSL 75 (1899), HSV 73 (2013).
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
Models move this upper level trough axis into northern Alabama Friday
morning. This boundary continues to say south during the day. There
might be a brief window of just a bit of sunshine near/south of the
Tennessee river just after daybreak, but this will quickly go aways
as an area of showers and thunderstorms push south into the area. A
little bit of shear could help this activity be a bit more organized
than typical pulse summertime activity. With dry air aloft and deeper
moist conditions in the lower levels, damaging winds look possible
in strongest thunderstorms. Thus, strong to marginally severe storms
look like a good possibility on Friday into Friday evening, before
becoming scattered in nature. Some drier air should push in behind
this trough axis on Saturday, making it a bit more comfortable.
However, it will be warmer with highs west of I-65 climbing to around
93 or 94 degrees. Heat index values around 100 degrees look possible
in northwestern Alabama as a result.
Guidance continues to moves a strong shortwave pushes southeast into
the area via northwesterly flow Saturday night. Thunderstorm activity
could be strong to marginally severe, with good shear and decent
instability ahead of this system.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
Sunday will begin as a cloudy and humid day, with some lingering
showers and storms behind the initial MCS complex progged to move
across the region late Saturday. This activity should begin to wane
by late morning into the early afternoon as it dissipates and shifts
off to the south and east. A dry forecast is expected for the
remainder of the day, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. With
dewpoints dropping into the middle 60s, it will also feel more
pleasant outdoors -- a good way to cap off the weekend. A surface
high will move into the region late Sunday into Monday as
temperatures will remain at or just below normal for early June.
The Tennessee Valley will be caught in between two pressure systems
through at least the middle part of next week: A strong area of high
pressure over the Southern Plains of TX/OK and fairly notable closed
upper-low over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. These features will
enhance a more northerly flow aloft and generally promote dry and
cooler conditions, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s on
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of the upcoming work week. In fact,
there may be a reinforcing shot of "cooler" air (from a weak
shortwave) on Tuesday/Wednesday which may maintain these conditions
through the first full week of June. With drier air at the surface
and stronger capping in place, the possibility of pulse, diurnal
convection should be quite low and have kept PoPs below mentionable
levels.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will
diminish with sunset, along with the chance for showers this
evening. However showers and thunderstorms will move into the area
early Friday morning. Kept with VCTS throughout the day due to low
confidence in timing.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM...KTW
LONG TERM...AMP.24
AVIATION...JMS
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
938 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
The heat will build into the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening will be much fewer late tonight and
through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms may be on the
increase Sunday along and ahead of a cold front. High pressure
building south should bring much drier air and lower humidity
levels mid and late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 930 PM Thursday...Inherited forecast remains on track.
Mid-level impulse is pulling off to the NE, with winds expected
to slowly shift around to the W through the overnight. Western
portions of the CWA which experienced more sunshine and hence
more instability this aftn continue to have scattered showers
and tstms, but a weakening trend is noted. SPC Mesoanalysis
shows parcels capped to the surface now, and although MUCape
remains, it is becoming weak, especially as convective elements
head east into the more stable airmass. Best chance for any
stronger storms will be Florence, Williamsburg, and Georgetown
counties the next few hours which are still most unstable. Even
these stronger storms are unlikely to feature any significant
hazards outside of lightning though. While storm motion is
generally increasing due to cold pool interaction and
strengthening low-level winds behind the departing mid-level
circulation, DCape is lowering and momentum transfer to the
surface is becoming more difficult as surface stability
increases. Even the heavy rain threat is reduced now thanks to
this faster storm motion.
Eastern portions of the CWA may catch the tail end of these
weakening storms, but will mostly experience isolated showers
thanks to forcing from the mid-levels and instability within the
residual layer. High-res guidance is in good agreement that
most of this will wane after midnight and expect primarily a dry
overnight period. Previous discussion below:
As of 645 PM Thursday...Satellite imagery reveals a well-defined
mid-level circulation is moving across the area now, but with a
relative void of shower and thunderstorm activity near the
center of circulation. This is likely due to earlier clouds and
showers that created a more stable airmass across much of the
area between I-95 and the coast. Where better instability exists
west of I-95 there has been a resurgence of thunderstorms
across Darlington and Marlboro counties, and this activity may
survive for another couple hours as it moves eastward toward
Florence and Dillon. Locally heavy rainfall is expected due to
slow movement and high precipitable water values.
A squall line dropping through the foothills of the Carolinas is
shown by the majority of models to dissipate before making it
this far east. However the HRRR shows some showers getting into
the Pee Dee region a little before midnight, so I`ll maintain a
small PoP here through early Friday morning.
Otherwise, the airmass should generally dry out overnight as
the steering flow turns more westerly behind the departing mid-
level swirl. Precipitable water values currently around 2.1
inches should fall to 1.7 inches overnight, mainly due to a loss
of moisture in the 850-500 mb layer.
Forecast lows range from 70-74 degrees, still on the high end of
guidance due to recent model performance, but not as
exceptionally warm as we`ve seen recently as the airmass begins
to dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Despite a continuation of very high
precipitable water in place Friday night will not offer significant
rainfall chances. Some weak upper level impulses will be moving
overhead but guidance is fairly insistent that other than perhaps a
few sprinkles the mid level dry air will not support measurable
precipitation. And given the oft moist bias of models (especially
when PW values are at 90% for the date) I`m not inclined to
disagree. Mid levels remain just enough into Saturday while steep
surface-based lapse rates really dry out the low levels on
Saturday, which is shaping up to be a partly sunny and warm
afternoon with highs into the low 90s. Instability should be
sufficient for isolated thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze,
who`s inland progress will be minimal due to low level offshore
flow. Ascent along the seabreeze should be bolstered by a mid level
impulse traversing the area in the NW flow. A weak boundary may drop
into the area Saturday night though some guidance such as the WRF is
backing away from this idea and keeping it well to the north. Expect
a warm and muggy night with generally rain-free conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...A pronounced ridge in the western CONUS will
persist during this portion of the forecast. A series of upper
lows diving out of southeast Canada will help to maintain a trough
across the East Coast of the U.S. One upper low across the northern
Mid-Atlantic Sun morning will be absorbed by a larger and stronger
system. This second upper low diving SE across the Great Lakes
region will reach the Mid-Atlantic area Mon night and Tue and then
E of New England Tue night. Another upper low dropping out of
southeast Canada will then merge with this system across the
Canadian Maritimes Wed night and Thu. The brunt of shortwave
energy rotating around these upper lows will skirt by to our N.
However, we will be on the southern periphery of one shortwave late
Sun and Sun eve and then another late Mon into Tue.
At the surface, a cold front should be moving through the area
during Sun and the column does begin to noticeably dry out
thereafter and especially in the mid levels. This front should
sag all the way to the Gulf Coast and well offshore through
Thu as Canadian high pressure builds down the East Coast. If this
scenario holds, then lower POPs are warranted as we move through the
forecast period and will actually keep POPs below threshold Thu with
increasing sunshine, especially by Wed and Thu.
Much lower dewpoints are expected to work their way into the
forecast area mid and late week. Dewpoints in the summery low and
mid 70s Sun will drop into the 60s Mon and Tue and perhaps as low
as around 60 Wed and Thu. High temps will be warmest Sun, around 90.
For the remainder of the period, highs will be in the 80s. Lows
will be as cool as the lower 60s Wed night and Thu night.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 23Z...Moisture profiles in the lowest few thousand of the
atmosphere are marginally conducive for stratus formation late
tonight, but W-WSW wind flow in the boundary layer may prevent
large-areas or widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings, but SCT010 looks
like a good bet at a few terminals. In the very near term, KLBT
and KFLO, VCTS through 02z based on radar trends and a diurnal
expectation of a diminishing trend into late evening.
Friday mid-levels appear dry, and am not forecasting SHRA/TSTMS
for Friday, but do count on moderate cumulus about the region
through the afternoon. VFR will be the rule for Friday, with
manageable south low-level wind flow.
Extended Outlook...Primarily VFR. Tempo MVFR/IFR in early
morning fog/stratus 09z-13z, or briefly in isolated showers and
TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 PM Thursday...Southerly winds 10-15 kt are gusting to
17-18 kt on recent buoy and pier reports, mainly due to this
afternoon`s seabreeze circulation. As the seabreeze dies away,
the overall synoptic wind should increase as a moderate low-
level jet develops just off the surface. This should push
sustained winds up to around 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt. Seas
currently reported at only 2-3 feet at area buoys should build
by around a foot overnight, with 4-foot seas becoming quite
widespread after midnight. The potential of 5+ foot seas may
not be quite as significant across the coastal waters as earlier
thought, so the `exercise caution` headline has been dropped
from the forecast.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Southwesterly flow and predominantly wind
waves will be in place through the period; as longer period swell
energy largely gets channeled east of the forecast zones. Still
looking for a general 10-15kt of wind but with afternoons growing so
warm a few afternoon/evening gusts to 20kt appear possible. Seas
will continue to average 2-3 and occasionally 4 ft.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...SW winds will hold into Sun, but are
expected to shift to NW Sun night in the wake of a cold front.
Northerly to northeasterly winds will dominate Mon and Mon
night. The wind direction should briefly become southwesterly
late Tue/Tue night ahead of a trough. Wind speeds will be 10 kt
or less, except up to near 15 kt later Sun and Sun eve. Seas
will be 2 to 3 ft, except up to 3 to 4 ft Sun night.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1005 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Ohio
Valley through Friday, resulting in a continued chance of
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will provide for dry
conditions on Saturday before another disturbance brings more
storms on Sunday and Monday. High pressure will then build in
for the remainder of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Next round of thunderstorms are moving through Indiana and
Kentucky towards the region. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP
seem to have a good handle on the situation. They weaken the
convection in nrn IN/nw OH as it comes east this evening.
Meanwhile the convection in far sw Indiana, is forecast to lift
ne towards the Cinci tri-state, arriving between 06Z-09Z. This
area works east along the Ohio River for the rest of the night.
Upped PoPs to likely with the srn convection, but this might
need to be increased if it holds together better. Cant rule out
spotty cells elsewhere in the fa, so went chance PoPs
elsewhere.
Kept lows in the upper 60s for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While there will be numerous upper level vorticity maxima over
the region, the axis of the trough will nose into western CWA by
daybreak Friday, be along the I-71 corridor by 18Z, then be east
and out of the area by evening. Surface front will lag behind
this and a few lingering showers or thunderstorms may persist
over the CWA Friday evening and show a decrease in coverage and
intensity overnight, exiting to the southeast by daybreak.
Surface front will be over the Ohio River towards midnight with
rapidly improving conditions overnight.
Tonight`s low temperatures will drop to 67-69 degrees across the
board, and tomorrow`s highs will be muted to be within a few
degrees of 80. Cooler air will result behind the surface frontal
passage by Saturday morning, ranging from the upper 50s to
around 60 in the I-70 corridor, to the middle 60s over Kentucky
and immediate Ohio River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will move into the region on
Saturday. Some models try to develop a few instability showers near
our eastern border, but have decided to keep a dry forecast for now.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
It now appears that s/wv energy will dig southeast in the northwest
flow aloft, and affect the region late Saturday night into Sunday.
This will be associated with a cold front, which will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 50s to the mid
60s, highs again will generally be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
The GFS is more of an outlier as we head into the first part of next
week, digging an upper level low faster and farther south into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Have leaned more toward the ECMWF/CMC
which keep the low farther north and a little slower in its digging.
In any case, a weak front should drop south through the region on
Tuesday, with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will cool some into the 75 to 80 degree range Monday
into Tuesday.
For the remainder of the extended, Wednesday and Thursday, under a
northwest flow aloft and generalized surface high pressure, dry
weather is expected. Highs 75 to 80 on Wednesday will warm slightly
by Thursday into the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tafs are currently in a lull from the convection, as this
afternoon`s round has ended. Convection over wrn Indiana is
forecast by the models to reach the fa overnight. Models are
showing the storms weakening as they come in, so timing them
into the tafs is tricky. Waited until 09Z to add VCTS to the
wrn tafs when the consensus has convection associated with a h5
s/w move in. May have to update timing if the storms hold
together. Time sections are suggesting the possibility of MVFR
stratus forming towards sunrise. The chance of MVFR cigs last
until about 14Z.
Scattered convection will continue during the day Friday, as H5
s/w swings through. Went with VCTS to cover the threat through
the end of the tafs.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Sites
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
936 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently across Mississippi it`s calm and quiet. An MCS has
developed over southern Missouri in the past few hours and
continues its progression towards the southeast. Rain chances, if
any, from this system will be confined to our northernmost
counties. The forecast was updated to include patchy fog that
could develop across south central and northeastern Mississippi
early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be a bit warmer
overnight tonight only dropping into the mid 70s across the
state./CW/
Prior discussion below:
Rest of today through tomorrow...
Ridging is currently in place across northern Mexico into south
Texas with a shortwave trough embedded in the westerly flow over
the middle Mississippi River Valley. Numerous areas of deep
convection are ongoing to our north and are expected to remain
displaced from the ArkLaMiss. The only exception will be the
potential for a progressive MCS to develop over northern Arkansas
and move southeast towards the ArkLaMiss Delta region later
tonight. 12z CAM guidance and latest HRRR runs have lacked
consistency with respect to this MCS and the nocturnal timing will
support a decaying trend as it approaches the area. As such,
while a few decaying storms associated with any remnant MCS cannot
be ruled out early tomorrow morning over the northwest Delta,
overall confidence remains too low at this time to support higher
rain chances or introduction of a severe threat in the
HWO/graphics but the potential will have to be monitored.
On Friday, the main story will be the continued heat stress with
afternoon high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s across much
of the area with a humid airmass remaining in place. This will
result in widespread 100-105 degree heat index values with the
hottest temperatures over the Delta. Will continue to highlight this
with the ongoing limited risk for heat in the HWO/graphics. A few
afternoon thunderstorms will be possible mainly in northern and
eastern portions of the area where any remnant outflow boundary from
overnight convection could help initiate storms. However, given the
aforementioned uncertainty with tonight`s MCS potential the
confidence in placement of convection tomorrow is also low. /TW/
Friday night through next week...
A warm, active, and fairly progressive regime will be featured
in the long term portion of the forecast. On Friday night/Saturday
morning, an upper level ridge will continue to build over the
eastern Plains, nudging into our region and resulting in northwest
flow. The current forecast mentions a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the northern sections of our region during this
period to account for the possibility of a decaying MCS entering
the region. The ridge will continue to dampen and slide eastward
through the day on Saturday as a deep upper trough begins to
form over the northern Plains. The main threat to the citizens of
the ArkLaMiss on Saturday will be the warm temperatures. Temps
will surge into the mid to upper 90`s and combine with increasing
moisture values(dew points in the low to mid 70s) to result in
heat indices ranging from 100-105 throughout the region.
Temperatures in this range will pose a threat to groups who will
spend the day outside on Saturday without proper shade and
hydration. Confidence of widespread 105+ heat indices wasn`t high
enough at this point to issue a Heat Advisory for Saturday but one
may be needed later if confidence grows.
The aforementioned trough forming across the Plains will begin to
approach the Great Lakes late on Saturday and into early Sunday,
dragging a cold front that will stretch from the Canadian Border
to the Lower MS River Valley. Storms ahead of and along this front
will move into the northern sections of our region late Saturday
into early Sunday. A few of these storms could become severe with
a main threat of wind damage and hail up to the size a quarter.
The front will continue to push through our area on Sunday.
However, areas that are able to warm enough ahead of the frontal
passage could see heat index readings in excess of 100 degrees on
Sunday afternoon. This will be possible mainly in the Pinebelt.
Drier, cooler air will move into the region behind the front. A
building ridge over the Desert SW will result in NW flow over the
region through early next week. This will keep temperatures
seasonal. Long term models do hint at a possible disturbance
developing in the NW flow aloft helping to push an MCS type system
through the region anywhere from late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions with southerly surface wind will prevail during
this TAF period. The exception will be the potential for early
morning MVFR category stratus development in the HBG/PIB/MEI area.
There is some potential for a few storms to push south toward the
GLH/GWO area late tonight, but the threat is not high enough to
indicate in TAFs at this time. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 73 93 74 93 / 3 6 3 22
Meridian 73 94 73 93 / 2 13 6 31
Vicksburg 74 93 74 94 / 1 3 3 10
Hattiesburg 72 93 74 94 / 1 11 5 27
Natchez 73 92 74 93 / 1 8 4 13
Greenville 76 92 75 95 / 3 10 17 22
Greenwood 76 92 74 93 / 9 14 17 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
The activity from earlier convection continues to wane this late
evening hour. The trend has been evident in radar returns and IR
satellite data and think based on the HIRES CAMs this seems
reasonable. The CAMs seem to be initializing well and some are
showing some of the upstream convection making it east later
tonight. However, much of the region remains quite worked over
from earlier convection and this is evident on the thermodynamic
parameters in the SPC Mesoanalysis data. Therefore, it would seem
the more robust upstream convection will decrease in intensity as
it works east through the night. Did update POPs to reflect the
latest trends and also updated grids to reflect the latest obs
and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 839 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
WSR-88D radar shows greatest concentration of stronger storms and
heaviest rain remains in south central Kentucky and Cumberland
Valley regions this evening. Given that much of the areas to the
north and east are seeing lower rainfall rates under stratiform
precipitation did drop the Flash Flood Watch for portions of
Eastern Kentucky. See the Flash Flood Watch statement for more
details. Also, adjusted POPs to better deal with the latest obs
and trends, and the CAMs remain unclear on the evolution of
convection tonight. The HRRR seems to have the better overall
handle and was able to adjust from that point. All grids have been
adjusted and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 604 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
The latest scans of the WSR-88D radar continue to show the better
coverage of stronger thunderstorms is now concentrated in the
Lake Cumberland region. Otherwise, we will continue to monitor the
flash flood threat in areas that have received larger amounts of
rainfall. The good news is areas north of the stronger convection
is more in the form of stratiform precipitation with much less
rainfall rates. Updated the grids to better portray the current
radar trends, but CAMs are not much help given the difficult time
they are having dealing with the convective trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 506 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
Cold pool dominated MCS has weakened considerably as it crossed
the area, but has led to some training storms on the southern
flank of the downdraft leading to some potential flash flooding.
Another MCS is spreading into the area and will bring one last
round of heavy rainfall and potentially some strong winds as it
crosses the area over the next few hours. This should act to
finally push out the lingering boundaries and end the heavy rain
threat by later this evening. Until then, the flash flood threat
will continue and possibly the need for a few warnings. Still lots
of moist air feeding this activity with PW`s well above 1 inch.
Some uncertainty what will happen overnight as instability will be
zapped and we may see a lull late tonight into Friday morning.
Another round of showers and storms will push through tomorrow
with a cold front which should be our last more widespread event
of the week. Localized heavy rain will again be possible, but the
severe threat will be less. Some isolated showers or drizzle could
hang on post frontal Saturday night, but should not be significant
rainfall.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday with an active
upper level pattern in place. Expect a pattern with an increase
in amplitude as the models suggest a ridge building in the
western CONUS with a trough setting up over the east. Closer to
the surface, on Saturday an exiting cold front will be slow to
shift east with lingering high pressure to the east. This will
likely keep a focus of shower and thunderstorm over far eastern
Kentucky. Thus will keep pops over the east for Saturday. For
Sunday, a second trough will track over the ridge in the west that
has shifted east slightly in the Plains. This wave will then
track southeast into the OH Valley. Model soundings suggest ample
instability for this event. Thus will expect another round of
showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.
The mentioned upper level ridge will shift east as well through
the period. The mid level subsidence will eventually work its way
into eastern Kentucky by Monday. This will result in a dry period
across the area through the rest of the extended. Given the
northwest flow setting up, a shortwave could clip the northeastern
portion of the CWA for Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, will expect a
dry period for much of the rest of the extended with much cooler
high temperatures. In fact, these temps are more in the normal
range for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018
The latest radar and lightning data show the greatest
concentration of stronger showers and thunderstorms are in parts
of the Tennessee Valley and south central Kentucky. This could
cause temporary restrictions at times through the evening, but
most of the TAF sites will probably escape the stronger storms
seen across south central Kentucky. Otherwise, some TAF sites
north and east are seeing some clearing and this could lead to
lower CIGs or VIS, but it is some what unclear how this will trend
overall. Given this, will lower VIS at SYM, LOZ, and SME, but the
overall uncertain how other sites will trend at this time. A
weakening frontal boundary will cross the region Friday and lead
to the potential for more showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. The winds will generally remain light outside of
thunderstorms.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-116-117.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
837 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
Convection is diminishing over south central Kentucky, but the next
round is really lighting up over extreme southern Illinois. Hi-res
models have been inconsistent on how well this will hold together as
it pushes east through the night, so confidence still isn`t too high
beyond about 06Z east of I-65. Still think the SVR threat is low but
non-zero in our area, but the bigger deal is the flooding threat,
especially in the Bluegrass and along the Tennessee border. Have
tweaked the Flash Flood Watch to better capture the areas that
received heavy rain today. Otherwise will see a return of scattered
storms later tonight. Updates on the way shortly.
Issued at 552 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
Will end Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136 for the remaining few
counties, as the convection has shifted into the very southern tier
of the Commonwealth. Cells continue to develop back across western
Kentucky, so even as the severe threat diminishes we will have to
continue to monitor the hydro threat, for possible southward
expansion (or shifting) of the Flash Flood Watch.
Issued at 450 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
Squall line has pushed through the Bluegrass, allowing us to drop
all but the southernmost tier of counties from Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 136. Moderate stratiform rain continues across the Bluegrass
region, and will slow the recovery of any flooded areas from earlier
this afternoon, so flood warnings and advisories continue into early
evening.
Main convective focus is across south-central Kentucky, where strong
surface-based CAPE is still present, as well as around 1300 J/kg of
downdraft CAPE. We`ll handle that with warnings rather than a Watch
extension that will end up completely beyond the original watch.
Otherwise keeping an eye on the next round of convection across
western Kentucky, as that will continue at least some threat of
severe weather, and a bigger threat of flash flooding well into the
night.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 31 2018
...Severe Weather Through This Evening Including Flash Flooding...
Several clusters and lines of strong to severe thunderstorms
occurring across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky
today. The storms have had a history of producing damaging winds,
bringing down power lines and trees. Torrential rainfall has led to
flash flooding in some areas.
In the near term, the heart of the forecast concerns is over the
next several hours. Environment certainly remains supportive of
strong to severe storms in the next 2-3 hours as the long-lived line
of storms continues east of I-65. While some areas have been
convectively overturned, enough instability recover may lead to
damaging wind gusts and small hail.
Much more uncertainty resides in how the evening forecast will play
out. The HRRR has been very consistent in showing additional
convective initiation across southern IL, western KY in the 3-4
hours and then this propagate toward south-central and central
Kentucky late this afternoon through the evening. This seems
reasonable given that those areas have seen little thunderstorm
activity and have plenty of instability to work with. Additional,
shear is expected to be on the increase in the evening, so despite
some waning instability, better shear will maintain the severe
threat there.
Flash Flooding will also be a concern across most of the area. The
environment is certainly supportive of excessive rainfall given
PWATs are running 1.7 to near 2.0 inches and dewpoints remain in the
low 70s. The earlier storms produced flooding across the Bluegrass.
Flash Flood guidance is about 2.0 inches in 1 hour, but in areas
that picked up high amounts already, those values aren`t necessarily
representative and are lower.
Hi-res models are consistent showing a swath of 2-4 inches locally
across central KY and perhaps up into southern IN. This is due to
the several rounds of storms. With this in mind, went with a Flash
Flood Watch through this evening.
Tonight - Friday
Storms will be on the decrease late tonight giving way to scattered
showers and isolated storms overnight but severe storms are not
expected. The current storms should push an effective boundary into
Tennessee. Most of Friday is expected to be less active but another
front drops through from the north in the afternoon/evening hours.
It could fire up a few thunderstorms but aren`t expected to be
severe. Highs will be in the 80s.
.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
Drier and less humid conditions are expected on Saturday. Highs are
expected to top out in the 80s. For Saturday night and into Sunday,
another quick moving upper level disturbance is forecast to cross
the region. This feature will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. The best chances for rainfall would be
late Saturday night and through Sunday morning with a drier
conditions arriving Sunday evening. Lows Saturday night look to cool
into the low-mid 60s, with highs on Sunday staying in the lower 80s.
Next week looks to be less active. The model consensus was used to
show mostly dry conditions Monday through Friday in the northwest
flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Temperatures will
gradually warm from near normal to well above normal through the
week.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018
Low-confidence forecast as everything hinges on eventual convective
development overnight. Can initialize BWG with showers and VCTS,
with MVFR cig/vis staying just above fuel-alternate. SDF, LEX, and
HNB all remain dry with scattered mid-level decks and cirrus
ceiling.
Greatest convective impact will be in BWG where showers and storms
could be intermittent through the night. Have included TEMPO groups
in the other terminals around or just after midnight for TSRA, with
SDF going in and out of fuel-alternate between 03-07Z as a few
storms ride just far enough north to brush the area. Similar theme
with LEX, only later in the night. HNB will clear out just enough
for some low clouds and fog around daybreak, so will carry TEMPO IFR
there but others should remain no worse than high-end MVFR.
Winds shift to NW on Fri afternoon, and while we can`t rule out a
pop-up shower or storm, confidence is too low to mention in the
TAFs.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for INZ089.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
KYZ023>029-034-035-038>041-045>048-053>057-061>067-071-
073>078-081-082.
&&
$$
Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
949 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Earlier strong to severe thunderstorms that affected much of our
eastern counties through the afternoon and evening have mostly
moved into eastern Tennessee except for a few strays in Coffee
and Grundy Counties. Outflow boundary from this earlier activity
has pushed westward and stalled roughly along the I-24 corridor,
with temperatures now well below forecast lows across eastern
zones due to the rain-cooled air. Went ahead and adjusted lows
downward in that area, but kept them near previous values over
western zones.
Looking upstream, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
ongoing across much of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and
northern Arkansas, and this activity is expected to congeal into
an MCS and push east-southeastward as a strong shortwave aloft
moves across the region. Latest HRRR and HREF model runs as well
as timing of current storm motions indicate these storms will
reach our northwest counties around midnight or so, then continue
southeast before exiting the area by 11-12Z. 00Z OHX sounding
showed a very moist and unstable airmass was in place with a PWAT
near 2 inches and MLCAPE around 2500 J/Kg along with steep low and
mid level lapse rates around 7 degrees C/Km and deep layer shear
around 30 knots, all of which is favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms overnight. However, HRRR/HREF models both suggests
storms will gradually weaken overnight with the loss of daytime
heating and instability, so it remains uncertain how strong or
severe storms will be as they move across the area. Main threats
remain damaging winds and possibly some large hail, along with
locally heavy rainfall especially over the Upper Cumberland which
got quite a bit of rain today. Adjusted pops downward for the rest
of the evening hours, but bumped them up overnight based on the
latest forecast thinking. Updated products out shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently impacting
northeastern portions of the CWA. These storms will impact KCSV
in the next few hours; VFR conditions at all other terminals.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
morning moving southwestward. Storm should arrive at KCKV by 06Z,
KBNA/KMQY by 07Z, and KCSV by 11Z. MVFR cigs and vis are possible
during these showers and storms. After these storms, VFR
conditions will return to all terminals.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........MacDonald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
A surface boundary remained positioned from far Northeast
Oklahoma through far Northwest Arkansas and into Southeast
Missouri this evening. Convection continued to develop and push
eastward along/near this boundary...with most of activity
remaining northwest and west of Northwest Arkansas. A few
showers/storms had begun to develop in Madison/Carroll within the
past hour along the boundary. Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas...mostly clear to mostly cloudy skies and
light winds were observed.
Overnight tonight...this surface boundary looks to weaken some and
shift east- southeast. This will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to remain possible across mainly Northwest Arkansas
into the overnight hours. Based on latest radar trends compared to
latest CAM solutions...have leaned more toward the HRRR for
precip tonight. Latest meso- analysis indicated that the cap was
beginning to strengthen over the CWA. In response...a limited
severe potential with mainly damaging winds and large hail...will
remain possible for the next few hours and then look to weaken
late tonight as the cap continues to increase over the boundary.
Dewpoints currently in the 70s are progged to not change all that
much tonight. Thus...with skies varying from mostly clear to
mostly cloudy...temperatures look to remain on the warm side with
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s forecast. For the evening
update...have adjusted pops/wx to account for the mentioned above
as well as add minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids
based on latest trends and observations. The rest of the forecast
seems to be handling well at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 95 78 93 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 75 95 76 96 / 20 0 0 10
MLC 75 94 77 95 / 10 0 0 10
BVO 68 94 75 92 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 68 90 72 90 / 20 10 0 10
BYV 69 91 72 88 / 30 10 10 10
MKO 74 94 76 93 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 69 92 75 91 / 20 0 10 10
F10 74 94 77 94 / 10 0 0 10
HHW 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ054>057-
059>062-064>067-070>076.
AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....10