Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/25/18
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to slowly build over
the American Southwest through Friday, keeping mostly clear and
tranquil conditions over northern and central New Mexico. VFR
condtions expected at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A few thunderstorms remain possible through mid evening near and just
east of the Sacramento mountains. If storms shift eastward off the
higher terrain, they will have the potential to become strong or
severe with hail and gusty winds. Otherwise, smoke from the Buzzard
fire will be the main concern through the evening from areas near
Aragon toward Pie Town. After this evening, the next potential for
storms exists on Sunday afternoon and evening along the Texas border
where a dryline will sharpen. Otherwise, near to above normal
temperatures are expected for the next week. Breezy afternoon
southwest winds will become common Saturday through at least Monday.
This will cause critical fire weather concerns, especially for
portions of northeast New Mexico.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A few thunderstorms have developed over the Sacramento Mountains this
afternoon, but are struggling to make it off the higher terrain. If
they do manage to shift eastward into the higher dewpoints and better
instability, we could see a severe storm or two. The HRRR has been
suggesting that one or two storms move into eastern Lincoln County
this afternoon. Shear is lacking today as the upper level ridge
builds overhead so no storms should last for very long. Otherwise,
the moisture across the plains is slowing mixing out this afternoon,
though it will likely slosh back, mainly south of I-40, overnight.
On Friday, the upper level ridge will remain over NM, though the
moisture over eastern NM will mix out even further eastward. As a
result, the potential for additional storms on Friday aftn/eve is
next to nil. Instead, look for temperatures to continue to rise, with
most areas around 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
By Saturday, the ridge will slide eastward and southwest flow will
increase over western NM as an upper level low pressure system slowly
shifts over the Great Basin. This low will very slowly meander toward
the northeast through Monday. This will mean continue dry, southwest
flow over much of NM. One exception may be near the Texas border on
Sunday aftn/eve where the dryline will sharpen and a few storms may
develop. However, these storms will quickly move into Texas if they
form. Otherwise, Saturday through Monday will feature near to above
normal temperatures, and increasingly breezy conditions (at least
thru Sunday).
Generally quiet conditions will persist through the mid and latter
half of next week. Temperatures will soar though as height rises
continue to increase. In fact, high temperatures in Roswell may reach
or break the century mark starting tomorrow through the end of next
week.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...
As is typical for late May, western NM remains quite dry with
surface level moisture sloshing around eastern NM. Currently, the
higher dewpoints are struggling to hold their ground over east
central to northeastern parts of the state, but should see some
short-lived recovery overnight. Into the daytime Friday, the
moisture will abruptly scour out and the entire forecast area will
be plagued by RH less than 10 percent by late afternoon with
temperatures rising a few more degrees. Fortunately, through this
time frame wind speeds will remain relatively light due to an
absence of stronger flow aloft.
Into Saturday, the Pacific trough will be moving inland as an upper
low, bringing a bit of stronger momentum aloft toward NM. To
complement this, the lee side surface trough will also deepen,
imposing a slightly stronger surface gradient with breezy to windy
surface/20ft winds by Saturday afternoon, mostly in northwestern and
northeastern areas of the state. While not overly strong, marginally
critical wind speeds in these northwestern and northeastern areas
will be juxtaposed over single digit RH, high Haines indices, and
well above average temperatures. The coverage of these stronger
winds is just persuasive enough that a Fire Weather Watch will be
issued for the northeast highlands for Saturday with winds being the
lower confidence element.
The pattern will be slow to evolve into Sunday with the upper low
slowly working from NV to UT while lee side surface troughing
persists. This would steer breezy to windy conditions over the
eastern half of NM with the strongest speeds over the northeast
corner where another round of critical conditions is expected.
Winds could slacken a bit into Monday as the low weakens over
northern UT, and should drop off much more into Tuesday as the low
is sheared out. This will limit critical conditions in the mid week
period, but no precipitation is foreseen through this time either.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
959 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore tonight and Friday, bringing warmer
weather on gusty southwest winds. A cold front drops south across
the region late Saturday into Saturday evening and will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms followed by much cooler and
unsettled weather Sunday with some improvement by Monday. Mainly
dry and warmer weather returns for Tuesday through Thursday as
high pressure moves in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 pm update...
*/ Highlights...
- Areas of dense fog for S/SE coastal RI and MA
- Visibility as low as a quarter of a mile
- Associated fog bank, expanding across the region towards
midnight, pushing E and offshore by daybreak
*/ Discussion...
GOES-16 nighttime microphysics tells the story, as does the 0z
Chatham sounding. An area of pooled moisture trapped beneath a
stout inversion just off the deck is lending to low clouds and/or
fog. Moving with the mean wind flow, this deck pushed through
late last night with NE winds pushing out towards Long Island as
high pressure built across the Gulf of Maine. Now with the high
S/E, seeing the start of return S flow and the mean wind shifting
out of the W. Progressing towards morning, will see the associated
fog bank expand and then begin to push off to the E towards daybreak.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for lower visibility, but given
residency time and visibility holding for the most part above a
quarter of a mile, will hold off on any dense fog advisories.
A combination of high-res guidance including the NBM and HRRR has
modeled the fog bank quite well, the basis for the going forecast.
Otherwise, clear conditions expected tonight with light S/SW winds.
Airmass remains dry enough to preclude valley fog. Lows should
drop back into upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
* Some locations make a run at 90 degrees Friday *
High pressure moves offshore Friday and Friday night with
prevailing W/SW flow. Forecast soundings show deep mixing with
decent 30-40kt low level jet, strongest near Cape Cod and
Islands where strong inversion will be present. Thus, we should
see 25-35 mph gusts across much of SNE with perhaps a few 40kt
gusts across SE MA.
Model 2-meter temperatures suggest highs easily reach into 80s
inland, if not 90 degrees in lower CT valley, Merrimack Valley,
and greater Boston, especially given gusty W/SW winds.
Dewpoints drop into 40s (or even upper 30s) during the
afternoon so it will just be a "dry heat" this time. Certainly
not humid.
Winds diminish Friday night but airmass remains warm in advance
of frontal boundary still well to our north. Lows should drop
back into 60s along with some mid and high clouds. Less
confident on low clouds/fog returning to South Coast so this may
need to be added in later forecasts.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...
* Very warm and humid Sat with sct afternoon showers/t-storms
* Much cooler with occasional showers Sun
* Some improvement Mon but below normal temps
* Mainly dry and warmer weather returns Tue through Thu
Saturday into Saturday night...
Very warm airmass in place Sat ahead of approaching backdoor cold
front. 925 mb temps 22-23C supports highs upper 80s to perhaps some
lower 90s interior, but cooler near the south coast due to SW flow.
Dewpoints will be climbing into the 60s so it will be increasingly
humid. This front will move south into SNE during mid/late afternoon
reaching the south coast toward evening. Much cooler air will follow
with ENE winds and sharply falling temps. Locations in NE MA may
drop into the 60s by late afternoon and there could be some gusty
winds here as well Sat evening as the cooler air rushes in.
Environment destabilizes ahead of the front with MLCAPES approaching
1000 J/kg with moderate deep layer shear. However, mid level lapse
rates are unfavorable and will likely by a limiting factor to
widespread convection. Still expect sct showers/t-storms developing
in the afternoon and lingering into Sat evening.
Sunday into Monday...
Much cooler airmass Sunday as high pres builds south from the
Maritimes with NE flow. Models are also indicating a wave developing
on the frontal boundary south of New Eng which will likely bring
some rain at times with cool NE winds and temps potentially
remaining in the 50s. Some improvement expected Monday with mainly
dry weather but still cool with lots of clouds and onshore winds.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Mainly dry and warmer weather returns as mid level ridge builds into
the region with rising heights. Weak fropa Tue but it should come
through dry then high pres builds into the region Wed/Thu. Temps
should warm back well into the 70s and some 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight...
IFR-VLIFR FG bank over SE RI and MA, expanding towards 6z, will
gradually push E with increasing W flow towards daybreak. Expect
towards 12z only ACK may see some lingering lower VSBYs.
Friday...
Increasing SW winds immediately with sunrise. Gusts up to 25-30
kts through much of the day, sustained around 15 kts. SCT mid-
decks.
Friday night...
SW winds taper but remain brisk over S/SE coast with sustained
flow around 10 kts and gusts up to 20 kts.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Will hold the fog bank just S of the terminal. It is possible it
may edge in tonight close to 04-05z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday:
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.
10 pm update...
Low clouds and/or fog will remain an issue for the S/SE waters
overnight. Expanding towards midnight, the associated fog bank
will push E towards daybreak with increasing, steering W flow,
the last traces over the SE outer waters by 8 am, exiting.
Previous discussion...
Small Craft Advisories posted for all waters for increasing SW
winds tonight (NE MA waters) and Friday (remainder of MA/RI
waters).
S/SE flow this afternoon with local sea breezes. Should see
some 15-20kt gusts along south coastal near shore waters with
locally choppy seas due to incoming high tide. Fog and low
clouds linger on waters south of islands.
High pressure moving off the coast will bring increasing SW
winds tonight and Friday. Enough of a low level jet tonight to
bring marginal SCA conditions to NE MA waters, otherwise winds
increase during day Friday across all waters with strongest
gusts (30kt) near shore. Winds and seas gradually subside Friday
night.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence.
Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Memorial Day: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-
236-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/JWD
NEAR TERM...KJC/Sipprell/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell/JWD
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell/JWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1035 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain moist and unstable the next few days
between a ridge offshore and weak low pressure to the west.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon and evening, are expected. Periods of heavy rain
are possible Sunday and Monday as a plume of tropical moisture
is directed into the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The high moisture will continue through tonight. Much of the
instability has been released and shower coverage and intensity
has diminished. There will be a continued chance of showers
overnight because of the high moisture and weak mid-level
shortwave trough caught in the ridging but expect little
coverage based on radar trends and the loss of heating. The
HRRR displayed little coverage overnight. The high moisture
will limit the temperature drop. Expect lows in the upper 60s to
around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday, deep moisture will remain over the forecast area
allowing diurnally driven convection in the afternoon. There
will be little in the way of surface forcing with the cold front
that moved into the area becoming ill-defined. Therefore
thunderstorms should be scattered in nature but favored to the
west, further from the ridge. PWAT values near 2 inches and slow
storm motion will again favor moderate or heavy rain rates.
Localized flooding will be possible, particularly in low lying
or poor drainage areas.
Saturday, the deeper moisture will shift northward and allow for
drier air to move over the forecast area. Drier air and synoptic
scale subsidence will limit the extent of convection compared
to previous days. Therefore will keep lower pops across the
area on Saturday and Saturday night.
High temperatures during this period will be in the mid to
upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Troughing to our west and the Bermuda High to the east will
direct tropical moisture into the Southeast. The models have
been consistently streaming a plume of high theta E air into the
area Sunday and Monday. Strong moisture advection over ridging
to our north will likely result in moderate rainfall with
periods of heavy rainfall at times. Flooding issues may arise,
particularly for areas with saturated soils from the antecedent
wet pattern. The remainder of the long term is less certain but
the potential exists for periods of heavy rain through Thursday.
Expecting mostly cloudy skies through the long term so
temperatures should be mild with lows above normal and highs
near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers have mostly tapered off, but due to abundant moisture,
considerable cloudiness remains. Ceilings are expected to lower
to IFR tonight, and stratus will persist through Friday morning.
Fog now looks less certain due to a 20 to 25 kt low level jet
that has developed. However, the NAM has the jet weakening by
morning, so patchy fog is still possible.
Another round of thunderstorms can be expected Friday afternoon
and evening, with heavy rain the primary threat. Winds will
remain light and generally out of the southeast, except gusty
and erratic in the vicinity of convection.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night and early morning IFR to
MVFR ceilings and visibilities with fog and stratus, along with
mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms through early next
week as a very moist air mass remains over the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
755 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Regarding evening-overnight storm chances:
Refreshed our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID) a little bit ago,
mainly in an "attempt" to highlight that the primary focus for
possible severe storms this evening should be within the southwest
quadrant of our coverage area (CWA).
Would normally hesitate getting too "cute" trying to pinpoint
areal details in this rather uncertain/murky pattern, but now that
we are within a few hours of potentially dealing with a few
severe storms (primary window of opportunity will be 7PM-
midnight), it appears via satellite/radar trends and also very
short term models such as the HRRR that our primary shot at severe
storms will hinge on whether or not the activity currently
blossoming just southwest of our CWA over northwest KS maintains
its intensity as it expands/evolves eastward. Like last night,
seasonably-weak deep layer shear averaging only 20-25kt will be a
limiting factor in more widespread/organized severe storms, but
with a corridor of healthy mixed-layer CAPE well into the
1000-2000 J/kg range in place primarily over our western zones for
several more hours, at least some marginally-severe multicell
storms are possible. Outside roughly the southwest quadrant of our
CWA, at least small (20-30 percent) storm chances/PoPs exist for
later tonight, but the odds of severe storms appear fairly low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Short term is a tough call. Numerical models point toward convection
erupting along a dry-line near the Kansas/Colorado border,
especially near where a surface low should develop in northwestern
Kansas. Convection has already developed along a boundary over the
Sandhills, but CIN is tamping down on these cells for the time
being this afternoon.
If convection develops, it will likely form into an MCS and head
east, being supported by an increasing low-level jet this evening,
with the best low-level convergence expected to be just southwest of
the CWA. I would expect damaging wind gusts and maybe up to golf
ball hail to be primary threats. Deep layer shear will be relatively
weak, but lapse rates could be at least moderate. There is a shot at
some severe weather, especially in north central Kansas where there
is a stronger signal near a surface low, but pretty convection may
very well pop up just about anywhere as a low-amplitude perturbation
moves by tonight and could be severe on the Nebraska side as well.
Primary time of focus will be between 6 or 7 pm and midnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
The upper ridge will keep the heat on for the foreseeable weekend
with highs in the 90s. Still going with a dry forecast with
intermittent chances of showers/t-storms creeping back in Monday
night as the ridge axis shifts east. Highs for the rest of the
forecast will be well into the 80s/90s past the weekend,behind the
ridge axis.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
VFR ceiling/visibility is expected to prevail, with only fairly
limited passing mid-high clouds. There will be a LOW chance of
thunderstorm activity later this evening-tonight (probably most
favored 03-06Z), but with better thunderstorm potential likely to
focus 75+ miles south-southwest of both KGRI/KEAR, we cannot even
justify a generic "vicinity thunderstorm" (VCTS) at this time in
the TAFs. Wind-wise, aside from any possible thunderstorm
influences, surface winds are actually expected to be relatively
light through the period, with sustained speeds at-or-below 11kt
the vast majority of the time. Direction will transition from
southerly this evening to generally westerly during the latter
half of the period Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 755 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
..Warmest final week of May on record at Grand Island/Hastings?..
Although it`s obviously not a "sure thing" yet, our latest forecast
for May 25-31 indicates that both Grand Island and Hastings (our
two primary long-term climate data sites) will experience the
overall-hottest last week of May on record! Listed below is the
projected May 25-31 average temperature (average of the daily
highs/lows) for this year, and the current warmest on record for
that week:
- Grand Island airport (records date back 122 years to 1896)
1) 2018...76.9 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.9 degrees
1921...75.9 degrees
4) 2014...75.6 degrees
5) 1934...75.3 degrees
- Hastings airport (records include 109 years dating to 1907)
1) 2018...77.0 degrees (PROJECTED from current forecast!)
2) 1926...75.1 degrees
3) 2014...74.6 degrees
4) 1913...74.5 degrees
5) 2006...73.7 degrees
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
910 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
The area stayed for the most part shower/storm free today as the
result of a surface high to our north and a rather dry profile, which
is evident in the 00z OHX sounding. To our NE there are a few storms
still going but those are stuck to the terrain and with weak flow
aloft don`t believe these will move towards the area. Latest RAP
analysis shows a region of higher MUCAPE and Theta-E over areas E/SE
of Huntsville. A weakening line of storms moving just north of ATL
does appear to be moving towards the better Theta-E and they could
hold together long enough to clip portions of DeKalb and Marshall
counties this evening. Made some adjustments to PoPs to account for
those storms.
In terms of temps, nudged values down in the typical cool spots but
didn`t make any other changes to the overall forecast for tonight.
Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
The MCV in GA is forecast to lift back northeast on Friday as
shortwave troughs in the central Plains move into the lower MO valley
and Ozark plateau. This will enable weak southerly flow to develop in
low levels and lift the convergence zone (albeit weakening)
northeastward through the TN valley on Friday afternoon and evening.
This along will be enough to bring greater chances of thunderstorms
during peak heating. The elevated terrain along the Cumberland
Plateau may also aid development as well. Exact timing and locations
of precipitation will largely be impacted by mesoscale features which
the NAM and GFS are showing with convectively enhanced vorticity
centers moving through both Friday night into Saturday. The NAM in
particular shows a wave forming over southeast MS that lifts north
and merges somewhat with the incoming 5h trough axis which should lie
from central KY through northern MS. This may keep more widespread
activity to our NW on Friday night into Saturday. Nevertheless, will
keep PoPs in the chance range from Friday night through Saturday
night (highest during peak heating Saturday).
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Much like yesterday, the extended portion of the forecast looks to
be a soggy one, as we welcome the unofficial start of Summer with
Memorial Day. Daily chances for showers and storms will be the rule,
with the exception being slightly less coverage during the late
evening/overnight hours. The higher-than-normal rain/storm chances
are thanks to a developing upper low, currently over the Yucatan
Peninsula, that will meander N over the open GOMEX. Whereas yesterday
the GFS was the outlier with the furthest `track` to the E, making
landfall in the Ern Panhandle of FL, today it joins the rest of the
model consensus with a more Wwrd track. Model consensus this
afternoon has a general `landfall` near Biloxi ~12Z Monday, with a
few members skirting SErn LA. Either way, with a more Wwrd track,
confidence is increasing in higher rainfall amounts compared to a
more Erly track (keeping much of the heavy rainfall locked further
S/E of the local CWFA). That said, the highest rainfall totals with
wherever this sub/tropical feature ends up will definitely be greater
along the coast, lessening as you move inland. This feature looks to
meander/wobble across the region for much of the week as it
gradually weakens, though higher-than-normal moisture will remain,
making for a muggy week ahead.
While confidence is high that tropical moisture streaming into the
area will provide near-daily-max PWat values through the week
(1.8-2.1"), torrential rainfall will be the primary hazard of
concern. This may lead to hydrologic concerns (flash and river
flooding) toward the end of the week if several heavy rounds of
rainfall traverse the region. In addition to the rainfall/flooding
threat, gusty winds ~40mph will be the secondary hazard (thanks to a
couple hundred Joules of DCAPE present each aftn), especially within
any stronger storms that can develop during the week ahead.
Again, the forecast for the extended heavily depends on exactly where
this feature tracks, so stay tuned for further forecast updates.
Temperatures during this timeframe will be generally in the
lower/middle 80s for daytime highs, with morning lows only falling
into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Only late in the period will
temperatures approach 90 degrees, and it`s when the remnants of this
sub/tropical feature finally get picked up in H5 flow by Thu/Fri that
this occurs. This will clear things out perhaps in time for the
weekend as an H5 ridge building across the Central Plains finally
shift E over our area, though models diverge regarding a disturbance
in NW flow by Sat. This would bring yet more rainfall to the region,
but details are too murky to buy this solution just yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
VFR conditions prevailed again today and should continue through much
of the period. Winds become more southerly after 14Z Friday and this
will trigger an increase in low level moisture. Added a Prob30 group
for Friday afternoon as coverage of storms should be higher but still
unable to narrow a time down for moving over the terminals.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Stumpf
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Stumpf
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
636 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 437 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018
Forecast concerns in the short term will focus on chances and
timing of convection and potential for any strong to severe storms.
Remnant outflow boundary as noted on sfc obs has become the focus
for another round of convection this afternoon over central MN and
northern WI along 1000-2000 j/kg MLCAPE gradient and area of strong
850 mb moisture transport and 25 kt 850 mb jet. Isolated t-storm
ahead of area of convection has moved into central MNM county in
past hour.
RAP model indicates MLCAPE values increasing to 500-1000 j/kg range
into the western half of Upper MI this evening with effective shear
values increasing to 25-30 knots as a weak shortwave rotates across
the area. Believe this will support redevelopment of shra/tsra into
western half of Upper MI this evening and a few stronger storms
could produce dime-sized hail with wet-bulb-zero heights 9.5-11kft.
SPC has included the western U.P. in a marginal risk for svr storms
mainly this evening. As shortwave moves east overnight and
evening/overnight and warmer 8h temps of 16-18C move in later
tonight believe atmosphere will become more capped leading to a lull
in convection later tonight into Fri morning. Arrival of another
shortwave from the west could lead to another round of scattered
to numerous showers/t-storms Fri mid-afternoon into early evening
as MLCAPE values increase to 1500-2000 j/kg. These higher CAPE
values combined with fcst deep layer shear of 25-35 knots and WB
zero heights 9.5-10.5 kft could yield isolated severe storms over
the interior western two-thirds of Upper Mi with damaging winds
and large hail. SPC has this area of Upper Mi in a marginal risk
for severe storms on Fri.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018
Above normal temperatures expected to continue through the extended
forecast along with scattered showers and thunderstorms through much
of the Memorial Day weekend.
Saturday: A shortwave is set to slide across the area Saturday
morning into the early afternoon hours, helping mlcape values reach
to around 1000J/kg. Models are showing that 0-6km deep layer shear
may be up to around 30 knots; however, with the shortwave set to
slide east of the area by the late afternoon hours. If enough
sunshine breaks out during the morning hours, then instability could
be enhanced enough to allow for some organization in the
thunderstorm activity across the area. There will be a conditional
risk for at least some isolated severe thunderstorms for late
Saturday morning into the afternoon for the central and eastern
U.P.with the increased shear values.
Sunday: There may be a few rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm
on Sunday morning; however, coverage and intensity will likely be
much more muted as the lingering shortwave will continue to slide to
the east. During the afternoon hours, under very weak pressure
gradient, convergent lake breeze boundaries may touch off a few
showers and a remote chance of an afternoon thunderstorm across the
area. Overall coverage will be minimal and mainly confined to the
central and eastern U.P.
Monday: There is a hint that a subtle shortwave may try to slide
through the Upper Great Lakes by Monday afternoon. This will help to
increase CAPE values a bit, probably in the 500 - 1000 J/kg range by
Monday afternoon. The instability along with lake breeze boundaries
under light flow, will lead to a few pop up afternoon showers across
the area, with a couple rumbles of thunder possible.
Tuesday through early Wednesday: Fairly quiet weather will be in
place for Tuesday and early Wednesday as high pressure slides
through the area and temperatures will continue to be above normal
for this time of year, by about 15 to 20 degrees.
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday: A deepening upper-level trough
is progged to approach the Upper Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon and slide through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
This will be basically the same time frame that the associated low
pressure system and cold front slides through the area. Instability
is progged to be increased with the moisture advection into the area
and steepening lapse rates; therefore, there will likely be
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Shear looks marginally
favorable for severe weather; however, exact details will be ironed
out as we get closer to this time period and models converge on the
details.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018
Scattered showers will move back into the area this evening,
although VFR conditions should prevail. LLWS will develop at IWD and
CMX by late evening/overnight. By late evening/overnight another
round of shra/t-storms should push over all the TAF sites and then
be off and on through the forecast period. Timing these will be
difficult.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 437 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018
Winds less than 20 kts are expected into next week. Expect areas of
fog to develop late tonight into the weekend as some rainfall occurs
over the lake and a humid air mass arrives. May have dense fog at
times with best chance setting up Fri night and Sat as a trough
slides across the lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Voss
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1007 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018
.DISCUSSION...
The update will extend PoPs across the southern and central Valley
through most of the night as ongoing convection is showing little
signs of dissipating despite the loss of heating. An inverted
surface trough appears to be creating weak convergence that is
maintaining the showers. The RAP shows this trough weakening
around 06Z. Slight tweaks to temps and dewpoints will be made, but
the forecast lows in the 60s appear on track.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
DGS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
959 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the forecast for tonight and early Friday to account
for the latest expected trends, mainly in precipitation (along
with its effects on temperature, etc.). Short-range models show
convection in various configurations moving into parts of
northern, and maybe even central, Oklahoma overnight. This makes
sense, given the forecast of the low-level jet, which should focus
convergence in southwest Kansas around midnight, then shift into
northwest Oklahoma toward morning. The nocturnal inversion is the
main limiting factor, which is why we have--for now-- maintained
PoPs of about 40 percent or less.
The MCV indicated by Kansas radars should remain over Kansas,
along with its immediate area of convection.
CmS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFs.
AVIATION...
The current showers and storms across northern and central
Oklahoma should stay between the TAF stations, primarily between
KPNC and KOKC. One thing we will have to watch closely is the
storms in Colorado moving into Kansas. The HRRR model brings those
into Oklahoma late tonight, a bit earlier than when we have the
storm chances in the current TAFs based on the synoptic models
(mainly the NAM). Have not gone with this timing yet as the RAP
dissipates the current convection before reaching Oklahoma, so the
signal is still rather mixed. But if it does look like the storms
will roll in earlier or be more widespread based on radar and
satellite trends or updated runs of the high-res models, we will
update the TAFs with this scenario.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast issues are the chance of thunderstorms on Friday
and hot temperatures toward the end of the forecast period.
For this afternoon/evening, a remnant MCV is resulting in
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across north central Oklahoma.
These thunderstorms are expected to continue through at least the
mid-evening hours with hail and gusty winds possible.
For Friday, there continues to be a risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms, but the location of the greatest risk will be
modulated by any remnant outflow boundary/MCV from tonight.
Various convective-allowing models (e.g., NAM NEST/HRW NSSL)
indicate an MCS and its attendant outflow boundary and/or MCV will
develop and move southward somewhere across northern Oklahoma.
The uncertainty is how far south will any remnant feature reach
before the potential for redevelopment in the afternoon.
Currently, the highest chance of redevelopment is somewhere from
northern central into west-central Oklahoma.
Environmental conditions tomorrow afternoon will be more than
sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings
indicate large downdraft CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and steep low-level
lapse rates in the subcloud layer, so damaging wind gusts from
downbursts will be possible. In addition, effective bulk layer
shear and large/wide CAPE in the hail-growth zone suggest large
hail will be possible as well (especially with initial, single-
cellular development that could have embedded supercellular
characteristics). Organization/cold pool generation may result
convection to eventually grow upscale into an MCS. If an MCS
develops, it would likely propagate southward through the evening
hours with a continued damaging wind gust threat.
For Sunday through Tuesday, northwest Oklahoma will maintain a
low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms to account for
any remnant High Plains convection and/or influence from
shortwave troughs embedded in the stronger mid-level flow. This
area will on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge and
closer to a western U.S. trough. Otherwise, the forecast looks hot
and dry for most locations.
Beyond Tuesday, both the 24/12Z GFS and ECMWF indicate that a
very hot pattern may develop toward and just beyond the forecast
period with a strengthening mid-level ridge across the Southern
Plains. Forecast mid-level heights ~596 dam (more typical for July
or August) and 850 mb temperatures in the upper 20Cs to low-30Cs
would result in widespread temperatures in the upper 90Fs and low
100F. These temperatures would be near record high temperatures.
Mahale
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 68 89 67 93 / 30 30 20 10
Hobart OK 69 97 67 98 / 20 30 20 0
Wichita Falls TX 71 96 70 98 / 10 20 30 0
Gage OK 66 97 65 98 / 20 20 10 0
Ponca City OK 67 87 66 94 / 50 30 20 10
Durant OK 70 91 69 92 / 10 20 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
23/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018
Tstms popped up in El Paso county around midday and have been moving
east. It looks like the best chances for tstms this evening will
probably be over Kiowa county, but the NAM and HRRR also show
activity in Baca county, with a slight chance that something will
also pop up in Prowers county. There could be one or two storms
that reach severe limits. After midnight conditions should be dry.
Friday, an upper level ridge will be over the state and both the NAM
and the GFS show dry conditions across southeast and south central
CO, along with above average temps. Highs acrs the southeast plains
will mostly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with 80s in the Upper
Arkansas and San Luis Valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018
Friday night through Sunday...Upper closed low over northern CA Fri
night will slide into the Great Basin for Sat and Sun, producing
strong deep southwest flow across the Four Corners. This will serve
to continue warm and dry conditions across the state, and coupled
with increasing winds, fire danger will be the main concern for both
Sat and Sun. Decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for much of the
area for Sat, with the eastern plains left out due to fuels info
indicating green up. Look for high temps in the upper 70s to lower
80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to upper 90s for the plains.
Monday through Wednesday...The upper low weakens Mon and begins to
eject to the east-northeast across the Rockies through Wed. Exact
timing is still questionable and Mon may end up being another
potential fire weather day, but at some time during Mon a weak cold
front pushes south across the Palmer Divide, cooling temps slightly
and raising humidity levels. Winds should ease as well, with
isolated diurnal showers and storms each day for the higher terrain
and far eastern plains. Temps will warm into the 70s for the high
valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.
Thursday...Another upper trough develops over the West Coast late
Wed, producing brisk w-sw flow across the Four Corners and western
Colorado once again. Temps will again warm to near 80F for the high
valleys, and 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Depending on how much
pcpn is received through mid-week, the forecast area might be right
back into enhanced fire danger. Stay tuned. Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS,
with an upper level ridge over the area. Winds should mostly be 12
kts or less.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ220>230.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
648 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
...Update Aviation for 00z Tafs...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Storms have taken a bit longer to get going today, but we are now
starting to see updrafts take shape. We will see scattered storms
for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening with
convective outflows kicking up additional storms. Convection
should then simmer down from mid to late evening.
By late tonight, short wave energy will track east across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri. A low level jet stream will veer into
the region ahead of this feature and induce isentropic upglide.
Looking at RAP data between 08 and 15 UTC, parcels only look
weakly capped between 900 and 825 mb. We therefore think that
elevated convection will be possible during this time frame across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Convective chances by Friday afternoon are then heavily dependent
on the coverage of morning convection and any remaining outflow
boundaries. If morning convection throws outflow towards the
east, the eastern Ozarks may see the best chance for afternoon
storms. If coverage is more limited in the morning, scattered
afternoon convection will be possible across the entire area.
Inspection of forecast soundings does reveal potential for
downbursts and perhaps some large hail with afternoon convection.
As for temperatures, lows tonight and highs on Friday look pretty
similar to what we have been seeing. Lows should range from the
lower to middle 60s over the eastern Ozarks to the middle and
upper 60s over western Missouri and southeastern Kansas. Highs on
Friday will range from the lower and middle 80s across the eastern
Ozarks to the middle and upper 80s across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
The potential for isolated storms will then persist into
Saturday. Coverage will be more limited as weak upper level height
rises will be overspreading the region. We should tack on a few
degrees for highs on Saturday as mid-level temperatures begin to
warm.
The Sunday through Tuesday time frame then look dry as an upper
level ridge shifts east and builds into the region. Temperatures
also look rather warm with highs warming into the upper 80s and
lower 90s.
Global models then vary as we get into the last half of next week.
The ECMWF and Canadian models knock down the ridge and keep us in
a weak west or southwest flow aloft. This would give us a low-end
threat for a few storms, although we will have to watch the
remnants of the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS
actually puts us in a pseudo northwest flow aloft. This would
open the door for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and
afternoon pop-up storms. Regardless, temperatures should remain
well above normal to finish next work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018
Isolated storms will continue early this evening and will
dissipate by the late evening hours. Coverage will again be
limited with this activity and a lot of locations will not be
affected.
South to southeasterly winds will occur this evening
and tonight, then winds will become more southwesterly
on Friday.
An upper level disturbance will track through the area late
tonight into Friday morning and may trigger scattered storms
across the area. Isolated storms may then be possible again Friday
afternoon into the early evening hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise