Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/15/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
No significant late evening updates. We did see a couple more
storms right along the SD border this evening. One near Hettinger
and another by Selfridge. These cells have since moved south into
South Dakota. We do have another hour or so potential for showers
or isolated thunderstorm over the far south central, which is
covered in the gridded forecast. Otherwise quiet for the remainder
of the night. No changes to the current Fire Weather Watch for the
Turtle Mountains area on Tuesday.
UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Showers and thunderstorms over the far southwest earlier this
afternoon have moved west into southeast Montana. A few radar
returns remain but expect that most of the activity is over for
the evening. We have kept a small chance in the far southwest and
south central for a couple more hours this evening, otherwise
expect clear skies north and central with clearing south. Updated
pops based on latest radar and adjusted sky cover through the
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms southwest and south
central through sunset this evening, and potential critical fire
weather conditions across the Turtle Mountains Tuesday highlight
the short term forecast.
GOES-East visible imagery through 2022 UTC continues to depict a
growing cumulus/cumulus congestus field across southwest and south
central North Dakota. Isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop from this field with the
aid of a shortwave across southwest North Dakota into southeast
Montana, and a cold front approaching the I-94 corridor. The CAMs
though the 19 UTC HRRR reflect this thinking well. Overall shear
and moisture is weak, and severe weather is not expected.
A warm Tuesday is expected across the area with widespread highs
in the upper 70s to the mid 80s with return flow south of a cold
front across southern Canada. See the fire weather discussion
below for details regarding potential critical fire weather
conditions across the Turtle Mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
A warm Wednesday, with rain shower and thunderstorm potential
Wednesday night through Friday highlight the extended forecast.
The 12 UTC global suite favors continued southerly surface flow
south of a cold front that will propagate south towards the
international border on Wednesday. The 12 UTC NAEFS ensemble mean
850mb temperatures near their 90th percentiles across western and
central North Dakota, which would favor above normal highs in the
mid to upper 80s.
Energy associated with a filling upper level low across Nevada,
Utah, and Idaho is forecast to propagate northeast into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday evening into Thursday, with
additional shortwaves propagating northeast into Friday out of the
next upper level low that arrives on shore to California on
Wednesday. This favors a more active period with multiple chances
for rain showers and thunderstorms. Dependent on moisture return
and cloud cover, Wednesday evening through Thursday will need to
monitored for severe thunderstorm potential. SPC has portions of
southwest and south central North Dakota in a marginal risk for
Day 3. Shear will be weak to marginal on Wednesday, however,
increasing on Thursday.
Temperatures are forecast to cool back down into the 60s area wide
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Mainly
scattered mid and high clouds through the period. Generally
northeast to east flow this evening becoming light. Southwest flow
develops late Tuesday morning and afternoon. Breezy around KMOT
Tuesday afternoon with gusts around 20kts from the southwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Issued a Fire Weather Watch for Rolette and Bottineau counties
for Tuesday.
High temperatures in the lower 80s are forecast across the
Turtle Mountains on Tuesday, with afternoon minimum relative
humidity near 20 percent, and southwest winds sustained near 20
mph. When combined with dry fuels across the Turtle Mountains,
critical fire weather conditions are possible. Elsewhere across
northwest and north central North Dakota, similar conditions are
expected, however, enough green up may limit the fire weather
threat. This will continue to be evaluated.
For the southwest and south central on Tuesday, highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s are forecast. Southwest winds of 10-15
mph are expected, with a bit higher relative humidity of 25 to 30
percent.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for NDZ004-005.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...PA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1059 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Several boundaries remain across southeast sections early this
evening. HRRR was pretty good at representing the narrow
convergent zone and mean moisture where storms popped up. But the
afternoon convection quickly diminished. The next convergent band
and big jump in mean moisture was indicated on radar over south
central Georgia. It appears to be a bit quickly than some of the
models indicate. But also expect some weakening with this area. So
for now, have removed rain mention this evening for Central
Alabama, although a 10 pop remains southeast. Left the mention
for late tonight and will monitor the activity over Georgia for
timing and placement.
75
Previous short-term discussion:Tonight.
Small area of showers have begun across the far southeast this
afternoon and will continue to impact the southeast through
tonight. There will more coverage by sunrise in the southeast as
well as the next outer band of the tropical moisture enters the
area.
16
.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Monday.
/Only changes to the long term was just some adjustments of rain
chances each day as the overall pattern remains intact./
The main story for the rest of the week and into the weekend is the
tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure system
is expected to lift northward into the northern Gulf of Mexico
during the day on Tuesday, bringing in tropical moisture across our
area. Rain chances will increase in the Southeastern Counties on
Tuesday and become more widespread across Central AL after
Wednesday. The low pressure system phases in with a larger scale
trough pattern over the Southeast US and essentially becomes
stationary. A cut-off low over Northern California and the Great
Basin sets up a blocking pattern to our west, which prevents any
synoptic changes that would kick the weakening low and trough out of
our area. Therefore, expect tropical moisture to continue to be
pulled into Central AL with a subtropical low and upper level trough
in the area. These items combined will lead to continued rain
chances all week. Coverage of rain/storms will follow a diurnal
pattern with the highest coverage being in the afternoons when
instability is the highest. I don`t expect any single area to
experience continuous rainfall all week, rather it will likely be
more on and off based on the diurnal nature storm activity. Overall,
the 7 day rain totals are not expected to be extremely high (1.5-3")
across Central AL; however, I wouldn`t be surprised to see some
locally heavier amounts given the unpredictability of where
storms will setup each afternoon and due to PWATs being up around
1.8" at times, which is around the max climatologically for this
time of year.
Models do begin to hint at the trough axis shifting eastward
sometime early next week, which could help kick the low out of our
area, but that has not been consistent from run to run, so for
now will keep likely PoPs into next Monday.
25/Owen
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.
Changes this terminal forecast cycle include backing off the low
cloud confidence for TOI as it looks to hold eastward for a while
longer. Additionally, backed off the timing of the rain chances a
few hours with a mixture of tempo and vcts/vcsh mention.
A low pressure system, mainly in the mid and upper levels, was
centered south of the area. This will create varying conditions
across the Central Alabama terminals the next 24 hours. It
appears that most locations will have predominant VFR conditions.
TOI is the first to be impacted by this system. The moisture
content will increase quite a bit, but the lowest level moisture
looks to hold eastward. Before VFR clouds move in, there may be a
period of MVFR br. Do not have this low level moisture
infiltrating the remainder of the area and do not mention
restricted ceilings elsewhere yet. Similar to last night, have
EET/TCL/MGM/ASN briefly dropping to MVFR br around daybreak.
As the system inches closer and the moisture increase, so do the
rain chances. Have a combination of PROB30 and VCTS for all sites
except TCL/BHM/EET, starting as early as 15z in TOI and lasting
through the afternoon hours.
75
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Overall dry for the night, with the exception being in the
southeast, where tropical moisture continues to stream into the
area. This tropical airmass will continue to move into the region
through the rest of the week. Rain chances increase each day,
with best chance of wetting rains after Tuesday afternoon. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 66 88 65 85 67 / 20 30 20 60 60
Anniston 67 87 65 84 66 / 20 40 50 70 60
Birmingham 69 90 68 87 70 / 20 20 20 60 50
Tuscaloosa 69 92 68 89 69 / 10 20 20 60 40
Calera 67 88 66 85 67 / 20 20 20 60 50
Auburn 66 81 66 82 67 / 20 60 60 80 70
Montgomery 68 86 67 85 69 / 20 60 60 70 60
Troy 66 84 66 83 68 / 20 70 60 80 60
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1156 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain over or just south of
Pennsylvania all week. The front will keep the pattern unsettled
with daily showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The radar is quiet for a change. The biggest change is that I
leaned toward the latest HRRR and kept it mainly dry overnight,
where the blended MOS POPs look far too wet.
Upstream there is convection firing from NRN IN back into MO.
Earlier HRRR runs brought the southern end of some dying
remnants of this through my northern zones late tonight toward
sunrise, and I held onto a small chance POP, but the CAMs have
trended drier for my zones through 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Surface low pressure (1004-1006 MB) will be located across the
eastern end of Lake Erie at 12Z with a cold front training SW
across Lake Erie/Ohio and a warm front SE twd the Poconos. SFC
trough extending south of the low will become enhanced from lee-
side stretching over the Susq Valley during the late
morning/afternoon hours Tuesday. Warm/humid air will supply and
a 1-2 sigma swrly wind at 850 mb on the GEFS will greatly
enhance EHIs to 2-3 m2/s2 as noted by the 18Z RAP from KIPT to
KEG and KMDT.
All but the NW part of of our CWA is in SPC`s DAY 2 Slight Risk
area which looks very reasonable.
Temps Tuesday will be a few to several deg F warmer than Monday,
with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s across
the Northern and Western Mtns respectively, to the mid and upper
80s over the SE half of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A persistent flow of subtropical moisture interacting with a
quasi-stationary frontal system will keep conditions soggy over
the region for the foreseeable future. The front will wag north
and south for the next several days bringing periods of showers
and thunderstorms with very little chance of any 12 hour period
remaining dry in any one location. Proximity of drier air mass
and high pressure to the north over southern Canada means that
drier air will filter southward into far northern PA from time
to time, giving at least some chance of periodic drier periods
this week, but the main story is for daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms until further notice. The Thursday night into
Friday timeframe looks particularly wet as deep layer moisture
surges (PW near 2.0") thanks to amplification of the offshore
upper ridge coupled with a nearly stationary upper trough over
the central plains. This will direct copious subtropical
moisture northward into the eastern GLAKS and set the stage for
locally heavy rains and potential flooding given what will have
been a very wet week by that time.
Temperatures should be above seasonal climate averages this week
with a muggy summertime/humid feel given dewpoints in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
03Z regional radar loop showing a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms popping up along approaching warm front,
running from northeast Ohio to northern Virginia. As the front
moves northeast, there could be a a few showers or thunderstorms
across central Pa overnight, mainly over the northwest part of
the state. Any shower or storm could be accompanied by a brief
vis reduction. Model soundings and SREF prob charts also
indicate the possibility (<50pct) for a brief period of IFR
cigs in the vicinity of KBFD early Tuesday morning associated
with passage of the front.
Perhaps the biggest concern overnight will be the possibility of
fog across eastern Pa. Dewpoint depressions already low in this
area, and when skies clear expect fog to develop between 05Z-08Z.
Latest SREF prob charts and NAMNest indicate the Susquehanna
Valley (especially KIPT/KLNS) is the area most likely to
experience significant vis reductions early Tuesday morning.
Any fog should mix out by 13Z-14Z over eastern Pa, followed by
widespread VFR conditions for late morning. A cold front will
push south across the region Tuesday afternoon, accompanied in
many locations by a round of strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms, with briefly reduced cigs/vsbys and possible strong
wind gusts.
Outlook...
Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly southern Pa.
Fri...Rain/low cigs likely.
Sat...Rain/low cigs possible.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Static pattern. Soils continue to get wetter as each days`
storms yield stripes of 1+" rainfall. PWATs hang in the 35-40mm
(1.5") range today and Tues before inching (pun) down to only an
inch on Wed-Thurs. They ramp up and get even higher than today
on Fri-Sat as a surge of tropical moisture flows in.
The showers/storms today will be moving along quickly with the
fast flow in mid-levels, but many will take the same path as the
last few days...that being across the SW/SCENT mtns of the
state where Flash Flood guidance is the lowest with hourly
values an inch or less.
A wider swath of heavier rain is expected on Tues aftn/evening
- but generally over areas which have received less rainfall
than the SWrn third of the CWA. Adding this up, it seems like
the chance for flash flooding is going to be higher on Tuesday
across a larger part of the CWA, but is still low enough at this
time to not post a flood watch. Chatting with neighboring
offices yields very similar thoughts.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
710 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
It has been a quiet evening across SW KS with thunderstorms so far
avoiding the SW KS region. This is expected to change over the
next 2-3 hours, as severe thunderstorms approach from the NW,
storms potentially arrive from Oklahoma, and scattered
thunderstorms develop areawide by midnight. Atmosphere over SW KS
is moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg) and sufficiently sheared
(40-50 kts bulk shear) to support severe thunderstorms. The severe
thunderstorm near Sharon Springs has a long history of damaging
wind and hail, and shows no signs of weakening as it approaches the
NW CWA zones. Tracking off of radar, the storm wilbe impacting the
Scott county vicinity by 9 pm. Only minor changes to pops for now,
but should HRRR/NAM evolution trends verify, will need to ramp up to
likely pops soon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Frontal boundary that has separated SW KS for days slipped
southward again overnight, with a stable boundary layer and areas
of stratus/fog behind it. Just like yesterday, stratus will
continue to burn off this afternoon. After a decent push
southward overnight/this morning, the boundary has pulled up
stationary again as of midday, essentially biscecting the
SE CWA. SE of this boundary, instability is again mounting rapidly
with MLCAPE already near 3000 J/kg near Medicine Lodge as of
11 AM. Most models develop convection along this convergent axis
over/near Barber county by 4 pm. Vast majority of activity is
expected to remain in Wichita`s and Norman`s jurisdiction today,
but the environment will again support large damaging hail from
any supercell so will need the monitor the SE zones closely into
this evening. Bulk effective shear is a bit improved in this
initiation area compared to yesterday, in the 30-35 kt range.
Also, have noted once again that 12z NAM spikes 0-1 km EHI in this
zone for several hours centered on 00z (7 pm). So, once again any
discrete supercells that avoid destructive interference will be
capable of large damaging hail as the primary threat. Surface-
based activity will be hard to come by, once again limiting the
tornado threat.
After 7 pm, additional shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to
spread further west deeper into SW KS, in response to weak
shortwaves isentropically lifting moisture over the stalled
frontal boundary. Severe weather is not expected from this
activity, with NAM progging elevated CAPE on the order of only
500-1000 J/kg. Kept scattered pops in the grids; hopefully this
will be some beneficial rainfall for areas that have missed out
recently (eg, Dodge City). Otherwise, light moist north winds will
again spread stratus and/or fog southward after midnight, with
temperatures Tuesday morning mainly in the 50s.
Tuesday...A light NE breeze will be maintained, which will hold
temperatures near normal for mid May, in the mid to upper 70s.
Rainfall opportunities will be limited, with most of the forcing
and instability south of SW KS. Kept some pops along the southern
zones, but this is likely overdone. Most locations Tuesday will be
dry.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Closed low enters northern California on Wednesday, which forces
upstream ridging over the Rockies and high plains. Temperatures
will warm accordingly into the low to mid 80s. Pop grids from the
forecast builder model blend look overdone, with little forcing
present. 12z ECMWF`s representation of more isolated convection
across the western zones appears more realistic.
Closed 566 dm upper low cruises into Nevada on Thursday. Ridge
axis crosses SW KS Thursday morning, phasing east into central
Kansas by afternoon. As such, weak SW flow aloft will resume by
late day, along with associated stronger lee troughing in eastern
Colorado. More isolated late day storms are probable along the lee
trough convergence axis. Coverage will be very limited. The
warming trend will continue, into the upper 80s.
The potential for severe weather is increasing on Friday. 12z
ECMWF displays a much more classic May synoptic setup for dryline
convection Friday afternoon. 566 dm upper low near Salt Lake City
at sunrise Friday ejects NE in a weakening state into Wyoming by
evening. Jet streaks and shortwaves eminating from the base of
this trough will interact with an established dry line, with ECMWF
QPF painting storms along the length of the dryline, from western
Nebraska all the way to Big Bend National Park Texas. ECMWF 0-1 km
EHI progs show severe weather is probable across Nebraska/Kansas
Friday afternoon/evening. Medium range models show moisture return
will be at least capable of supporting higher end severe, with
surface dewpoints in the mid 60s across the eastern CWA.
Temperatures will peak on Friday, at least into the lower 90s,
with the hottest temperatures west of the dryline. Current
forecast is almost certainly not hot enough, with MEX guidance
already suggesting mid 90s. South/SE winds will also increase
strongly Friday afternoon, given ECMWF`s depiction of a 994 mb
surface low in Baca county Colorado.
Cold front passage expected Friday night and Saturday, followed by
north winds and cooler temperatures. Afternoon max temperatures
will fall back to the 70s Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 510 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Another complicated TAF forecast package with convection and IFR
cigs/vis issues. VFR will prevail for the next few hours, as
thunderstorms remain south, east and west of the terminals.
Short term models (including HRRR and 18z NAM) show convection
currently in Colorado spreading into SW KS this evening. Included
VCTS/CB given uncertainty, but a bow echo may produce locally
strong/severe winds to 50 kts. TAF amendments are likely. Other
convection is either expected to move in from Oklahoma, or develop
after midnight in a scattered fashion. Stationary frontal boundary
draped south of DDC will get another nudge southward through
Tuesday morning, with high confidence that stratus/fog will fill
back into the airports through 12z Tue.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 77 59 81 / 40 20 30 40
GCK 55 76 57 81 / 30 10 20 30
EHA 53 73 55 83 / 20 20 40 20
LBL 57 76 57 84 / 30 20 40 30
HYS 56 79 57 79 / 20 10 10 40
P28 64 81 62 84 / 40 30 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
637 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Aloft: The flow was split and contorted with a subtropical high
over the Pac NW...the stationary cut-off low over NV with
confluent flow downstream over the US-Can border (diffluent
blocking high config). Two shortwave trofs will cross the CWA this
afternoon...one over CO will move into Neb. The other over W TX
will cross KS. Little will change in this overall config thru
tomorrow. The trof that moves into Neb will combine with a Nrn
stream trof to lower the ridge over the SE USA and the high over
the Pac NW will drift E into MT. A shortwave ridge will build over
Cntrl Plns tonight in the wake of the trofs.
Surface: The front from last Thu that has been stalled from SW-
NE across KS will finally become mobile and sink SE tonight into
tomorrow as downstream heights aloft fall. Weak high pres was
actually over Neb this afternoon. By Tue afternoon this high will
give way to another over the GtLakes.
Rest of this afternoon: variable between p/sunny and m/cldy. Did
maintain a slight (20%) POP for an isolated shwr/tstm thru early
eve E of a line from Osborne-Geneva...but this is a very low
probability. Odds are it will remain dry. Given that I believe it
will remain dry...will pull the mention of severe from the HWO.
An isolated shwr did cross Nrn Buffalo county. Had to insert a low
POP for that. Can`t rule out other shwr development...but it will
be the exception.
Tonight: Uncertainty on cloud coverage. Believe the diurnal
stratocu will dissipate...but there could be some lingering
patches of stratus. If that occurs...it will lower and expand
overnight.
There are a couple models that try to bring a little shwr/tstm
activity into Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties during the
evening... if it survives from NW KS. Did include a 20% POP "just
in case"...but believe it will remain S of I-70.
Conds are favorable for fog. No air mass change...dwpts remain
fairly high...light winds...decreasing clds. Just not sure how
widespread and how low vsbys will go. GFS MOS/LAMP and HRRR
guidance is surprisingly benign. So kept fog character as patchy.
My concern is temps will radiate past afternoon cross-over temps
by 3F to the E of Hwy 183 and espcly E of Hwy 281.
Lows will be in the 50s...about 5F above normal.
Tue: Patchy fog dissipates by mid-morning. Not sure how much
stratus the day begins with...but that will take some time to
dissipate if there is any. Otherwise...expect a healthy deck of
SCT-BKN stratocu to develop within the remnant thermal trof. SC
will be most numerous before 20Z then decrease to just a
FEW...espcly W and S of the Tri- Cities.
Highs in the 70s. Did increase SW counties to near 80F.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Aloft: The last 2 runs of global models are tightly clustered on
the summerlike pattern remaining in place thru next weekend due to
the diffluent blocking high over the Wrn USA. The main belt of
Westerlies will remain over Canada. A shortwave ridge will remain
over the Cntrl Plns thru Thu. The low currently over NV will be
replaced by a new low from the Pac. As this low breaks apart...the
flow will become SW Fri-Sat with multiple low-amplitude shortwave
trofs fcst to move thru. A shortwave ridge is then fcst to build
over the Cntrl Plns Sun-Mon as the next Pac low moves onshore in
the W. Another significant feature will be the potent trof Nrn
stream trof that will dive from Cntrl Canada into the GtLakes next
weekend.
Surface: Weak high pres will remain over the Midwest Wed...
maintaining light return flow here. That return flow will cont as
a lee low forms over SE CO. The Canadian upr trof will drive a
cool front S. The CO low is fcst to move up the front Sat as the
it sinks across the CWA. Strong and cool Canadian high pres will
dive into the Cntrl USA and will be overhead Sun and then drift E
Mon.
The 00Z EC ensemble supports the above scenarios...suggesting
above average confidence.
Temps: back to above normal Wed-Fri. Turning cooler than normal
Sat-Sun...then returning to near normal Mon.
Precip: The last 2 GEM/GFS runs bring tstms fcst to form over Ern
CO into parts of the CWA Wed afternoon/eve. POPs are in the fcst
but am not buying this because these models have a high QPF bias.
The last 2 EC runs are dry. Dry Thu. Believe the next decent
chance of tstms will occur Thu night into Fri induced by the low-
level jet. More chances of tstms exist Fri night into Sat...but
instability will be shunted SE of the CWA Sat afternoon in CAA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
VFR is the forecast which the majority of the models support
tonight. But also seeing possibility of fog forming overnight with
the high dew pts and light winds over the area. Currently have
a hint of fog in the TAFs but that could change later tonight if
we start to see vis dropping with the clouds also dissipating.
One model suggest anywhere from a 1/2 mile to a mile at 12z. Will
monitor and adjust as needed.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Beda
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1032 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
No significant changes to previous forecast. Weak mid-level
disturbance over Minnesota will move east across the forecast area
overnight and provide weak large-scale lift in concert weak low-
level warm advection and surface trough moving southeast across
the forecast area. Both HRRR and NAM generally in the ballpark on
intensity and movement of scattered light shower activity
currently moving across Minnesota and western Wisconsin. 12Z GRB
sounding continued to show rather dry air holding on over
eastcentral Wisconsin so scattered shower activity will struggle
to work into that area this evening. Given the somewhat more
pronounced upper-level impulse and breadth of cloud shield and
light upstream shower activity, think some light showers should
eventually impact much of the forecast area later this evening.
Given weak forcing overall, do not expect much more than a few
hundreths of an inch. Although lapse rates aloft are not
particularly impressive, could be an isolated rumble of thunder
especially south of highway 10 where moisture is a bit deeper and
low-level WAA will be a tad stronger especially after sunset
before 850 winds veer more westerly. Shower activity will move
east of the area by 12Z Tuesday with drier northerly flow in the
wake of the surface trough.
As mentioned previously, fire weather concerns will persist
Tuesday, with relative humidity values dropping to perhaps 15 to
20 percent across the north with temperatures in the lower 70s.
Fortunately boundary winds will be generally light mainly in the
5 to 10 kt range.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Nearly zonal upper flow expected through Friday, with surface
high pressure keeping it mostly dry. Upper flow becomes southwest
Friday and Saturday as an upper trough approaches form the Plains
states. South winds ahead of a cold front will bring some moisture
back into northern and central Wisconsin and should be sufficient
for showers and thunderstorms to accompany the front as it moves
across the area Friday night and Saturday. Scattered showers might
continue Sunday as the upper trough exits the region, with dry
weather following Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Showers will taper off overnight as an upper level disturbance
and cold front exit the region. Although VFR conditions are
expected across much of the forecast area through the TAF period,
isolated MVFR conditions are possible overnight where steadier
rainfall is occurring, or has occurred. This would appear to be
most likely in the AUW/CWA/MFI/STE/ISW areas. Clearing skies will
work their way southeast across the area later tonight into
Tuesday morning. Gusty northeast winds are expected to develop in
the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas by Tuesday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected in
north central Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon with relative humidity
in the upper teens with highs in the lower 70s. Winds should be
relatively light. Relative humidity will be somewhat higher
Wednesday afternoon, but temperatures and wind speeds will be
higher as well.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
FIRE WEATHER...RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1036 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing off the Florida west coast should push
tropical moisture over the Carolinas beginning Tuesday. This
will lead to more clouds, increased rain chances, and cooler
daytime temperatures. This weather pattern should last into the
coming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1036 PM Monday...Low level flow picking up a bit with VWP
from Shallotte showing 30 kt from the boundary layer to around
4000 feet, S-SSW. This will serve moisture advection off the
Atlantic waters well. The mid-level cap will slowly erode as the
infusion of tropical moisture deepens, but not entirely, until
Tuesday, so expecting isolated showers only, for the overnight
period. No significant changes required, with the clouds setting
in, not anticipating sharply reduced visibility in fog/mist.
As of 752 PM Monday...Based of recent radar trends, and the
latest HRRR depictions, have scaled back overnight POP values to
the isolated category, ramping up moreso into Tuesday with
TSTMS chances coming into play then. No other changes were made
as temperatures, winds, and sky elements, look good. We will see
shrinking diurnal temperature ranges in the days ahead due to
the infusion on tropical moisture.
As of 400 PM Monday...Increasing cirrus clouds today the harbinger
of change in pattern. Deep layer low over Florida/Gulf of Mexico
lifting ever so slowly northward, it`s upper level moisture
arriving first at this time. Moisture advection will deepen into the
lower levels through the period yielding lowering cloud heights and
rain chances that rise from south to north, the rain likely holding
off until the latter half of tonight. Much of Tuesday will be
unsettled, though the threat for any heavy rainfall will be slated
for later periods. Of note will be the tempered warmth Tuesday
afternoon after the recent string of June-like temperatures. Both
nights on the other hand will be warmer than climatology due to the
extensive cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...Let the rains begin. From 1 end of the
spectrum, the recent hot and dry period followed by now, a wet
period. The drifting cutoff upper low is progged to directly affect
the Eastern Half of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during this time
period and continuing beyond. The main belt of westerlies remains
well north of this system with nothing immediate upstream that could
kick start this upper low or even absorb it. With counter-clockwise
flow, moisture from several sources...Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea
and Tropical Atlantic...will combine and get siphoned northward
reaching the ILM CWA and deposited across the local region in the
form of showers and thunderstorms, with possible heavy rain
producers.
For the time period, 8 PM Tue thru 8 AM Wed, the QPF will range from
one half to 1 inch. The lower end to occur inland and the hier
amounts along the coast due to the unabated onshore movement of the
pcpn. Have also identified when and where the hier POPs will occur
thruout each day. You have the nocturnal engine over the Atlantic
waters springing up convection during the pre-dawn hrs each night
and moving northward under southerly flow thru the atm column. This
pre-dawn activity will move onshore and inland thru the morning hrs
and weakening some as it pushes inland. By midday and thru the early
evening hrs, the inland locations will be under the gone for
convection to develop given any amount of the days insolation. It
will not take much to fire up showers/thunderstorms given a loaded
atm with PWs approaching 2 inches and any embedded s/w trofs aloft.
Have undercut Max temps for Wed, leaning toward the lower NAM and
European. And have increased overnight lows by a degree or 3 with no
aspects of any rad cooling conditions. Inevitably, the diurnal
temperature range will run 10 to possibly 15 degrees at most.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM Sunday...A significant plume of tropical moisture will
prevail across the region for most if not all of the extended
forecast period. Guidance is showing a slightly stronger Bermuda
ridge building westward for the weekend, and if this occurs
could be a limiting factor for convection along the coast.
Otherwise good chance to likely pops continue for most of the
area through the period. Steady state temperature forecast as
well with highs in the lower to middle 80s and warm overnight
lows thanks to the moisture struggling to dip below the 70
degree mark.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR and light S winds will give way to scattered
MVFR clouds/mid-level cigs towards the pre-dawn hours. At
KFLO/KLBT there could be tempo MVFR vsbys/cigs associated with
patchy fog prior to daybreak, otherwise VFR expected at the
terminals. Showers will move S-N from the pre-dawn hours
through through mid morning. Attm confidence is low as to any
sub VFR solely associated with precipitation.
SE-S winds increase to 10-15 kt with VCSH mainly KFLO/KLBT by
mid-morning. Continued mainly VFR at the terminals through the
end of the TAF period. Tempo -SHRA possible through the
afternoon. Do not expect any thunderstorms until later in the
afternoon. Confidence of VCTS is low attm.
Extended Outlook...Periods of MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys will be
likely through Fri mainly associated with scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms. Possible improvement on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1036 PM Monday...Mixed seas comprised of, SE waves 2 feet
every 8 seconds will commingle with SSE waves 2-3 feet every
5-6 seconds overnight. Isolated marine showers can be expected
after midnight, with a few TSTMS on Tuesday, as tropical
moisture increases across the region.
As of 400 PM Monday...The area will remain in between a very
large west Atlantic high and low pressure developing over
Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will promote a
continued southerly flow in the 10-15 kt range. Seas will remain
2-3ft for the most part except for a few 4 ft waves that will
start affecting the outer portions of New Hanover waters due to
their far eastward extent.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...Thruout this period, the local waters will
reside in the "middle", between the cutoff low meandering across the
NE Gulf of Mexico and ridging associated with Bermuda high pressure
over the western Atlantic. The sfc pressure pattern and slowly
tightening gradient will result in Southerly winds around 15 kt
thruout this time period.
Significant seas will slowly build to 3 to 5 ft during this time
period and as time passes by, the seas initially at 4 to 6 second
periods, will increase to a pseudo swell at 6 to 8 second period
given the length and time period under this southerly fetch. SCEC
conditions likely by the end of this period, with SCA mainly from
seas thresholds remains possible at the end of this period. Showers
and thunderstorms will become most numerous each day running from
late in the pre-dawn hrs of each day and lasting until the mid to
late morning daytime hrs.
Mariners will see vsbys 1 nm or less during some of these tropical
type rains as well as gusts up to 30 kt.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...Bermuda High Pressure will be the dominant
feature for the marine community for the extended period. This will
keep south to southeast winds of 10-15 and sometimes 15-20 knots
across the waters through the period. Significant seas will be 2-4
feet and sometimes 3-5 feet with the stronger winds. Small craft
conditions could be in play but more likely is an extended period or
several intervals of SCEC conditions.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1033 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue offshore through the coming week.
Deep Tropical moisture, associated with an area of low pressure
along the eastern Gulf Coast, will spread north with increasing
chances of showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday through the
end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Monday...Weakening convective complex pushing out of
SE VA into NE NC late this evening. Models are not handling the
convection well, essentially weakening it too quickly as it
pushes into the region. Added slight chance to chance PoPs to
the northern tier counties as it is likely this convection will
not completely dissipate before it pushes into the CWA, but do
expect continued weakening over the next few hours. Also updated
winds with latest HRRR to account for the outflow boundary
pushing ahead of the convection, which may push into southern
sections late tonight before dissipating. The outflow boundary
will likely have a brief northerly surge associated with it but
winds will become light after the initial surge. The strength of
the surge will be strongest across the northern tier with gusts
around 30-40 mph possible but the strength of the surge will
weaken the further south it becomes. Little change in thinking
with increasing moisture from the south late tonight as
discussed in the previous discussion.
Previous discussion...Cirrus will continue to gradually
increase from the south tonight in association with upper level
low off of Florida. Precipitable waters surge to around 2 inches
toward morning as deep moisture lifts north. Will have a slight
chance of showers over roughly the southeastern half of the CWA
after midnight, but any amounts should be quite light. Lows
should be in the upper 60s to around 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Tuesday will begin with some coastal
showers during the morning hours, which will transition inland
to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. PoPs are in the high chance range (40-50%)
Tuesday afternoon, with a few brief downpours possible given the
deep moisture. With increased cloud cover, temperatures will be
a bit cooler for Tuesday with highs generally in the low to mid
80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM Mon...An extended period of wet and unsettled
weather is expected through midweek and into the weekend.
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely as tropical
moisture feeds into the region. Temperatures will be around
normal with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tuesday Night through Thursday...An upper level trough and weak
tropical disturbance will move over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday night, with a strong Bermuda high off the
Atlantic coast. This will set up for an enhanced flow of
tropical moisture into the region for the upcoming week. Showers
and thunderstorms will be mostly scattered on Tuesday night,
however coverage will be more widespread for Wednesday and
Thursday. Have likely PoPs for most of the week. Rain coverage
will be diurnally enhanced, so have greater precip chances
during the afternoon and evening each day. High temperatures
will reach the low to mid 80s inland, and the upper 70s along
the coast for this period with Tuesday being the warmest day.
Low temps will be very mild, in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Friday through Sunday...Upper level trough over the eastern gulf
states will reorganize on Friday, as a weak surface low moves up
the Appalachians. This will change little to the observable
weather in Eastern NC, with periods of showers and
thunderstorms continuing. Tropical moisture tap remains open
this weekend as well, and have likely PoPs during the afternoon
and evenings. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s
to low 80s, under mostly cloudy skies. Low temps will be very
mild, in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 1000 PM Mon...Pred VFR expected through the TAF period.
A weakening line of convection is pushing into NE NC and may
impact far northern rtes over the next few hours but not
anticipating it to impact the TAF sites at this time. Will see
increasing/lowering clouds late tonight as moisture feed between
low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure off the
Southeast coast begins to lift into the area. Could see a few
showers impact coastal sections late tonight with scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected in the afternoon. The
showers/storms could bring brief sub-VFR conditions but outside
of the shower VFR expected to prevail Tuesday. Winds will
generally be SW, but could become light/variable behind
convective outflow boundary late tonight. SW winds could gust
around 15-20 kt Tuesday afternoon.
Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected into Wednesday
morning. Then, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the weekend, which will lead to periods of sub-VFR
conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 10 PM Monday...Have cancelled the SCA as winds across the
Pamlico Sound have diminished to below 20 kt. A convective
outflow boundary will push into northern waters over the next
couple hours bringing a brief strong northerly surge with winds
becoming somewhat light and variable in the cold pool behind the
convection. The northern waters are expected to experience the
strongest surge with weakening as the boundary pushes farther
south. Will continue to issue Marine Warnings as needed for the
surge and possible convection. Gradient SW winds are expected to
return late tonight and especially Tuesday.
Previous discussion...Not alot of change expected to the marine
forecast with gusty SW winds 15-20 knots on the coastal waters
with a few gusts getting close to 25 knots at times this evening
given the usual diurnal enhancement of winds. On the Sounds,
winds will generally be 10-15 knots with a few gusts to 20
knots. Seas have continued steady at 2-4 feet, and a few 5
footers may be possible over the far outer waters this evening.
Not much change expected for Tuesday for winds and seas.
Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Winds will remain S/SSW through the period
5-15 kts, with maybe some areas of 15-20 kts over the outer
central waters. Seas will be 2-4 feet Wednesday, and then
increase to 3-5 feet for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/SK
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...CTC/SK/SGK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Showers have become widespread this afternoon across Minnesota.
Hi-res models are not handling the activity across south central
Minnesota well, so had to recently increase PoPs substantially
there. Otherwise, anticipating the showers to continue through mid
evening, then taper off from west to east quickly thereafter.
Rainfall totals should be light, generally less than a quarter of
an inch. There hasn`t been any lightning yet and given the poor
lapse rates we probably won`t see anything more than isolated
coverage for thunder.
Much drier air will push in overnight on north winds. This should
keep the fog from forming unless winds completely decouple.
Clear skies, warm temperatures, and winds becoming calm can be
expected for Tuesday. A thermal trough will be in place, but +17C
925 mb temperatures should still get us into the mid/upper 70s in
most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
The main concern in the long-term period is the cold frontal
boundary expected at the end of the week. Until then, the
Northwestern and North Central CONUS will remain under upper-level
ridging and surface high pressure. Wednesday will be mostly sunny
with highs in the 80s and winds predominately out of the southwest
under 10 kts. Dew points are anticipated to be in the upper 40s, so
humidities will fall into the 30-35 percent range Wednesday
afternoon.
An upper level low approaches the West Coast on Wednesday and
progresses into the Great Basin on Thursday. Downstream, Pacific
moisture and cyclonic vorticity will be advected. Surface low
pressure is expected to develop over the Dakotas on Thursday,
bringing chances for rainfall in Western and Northern MN. A cold
front with the attendant low pressure will progress southeastward
and bring continual chances for rain through at least early
Saturday. However, there still appears to be timing differences with
the arrival of the front. The FROPA in the 12Z ECMWF is about 15
hours slower than the 12Z GFS. The 00Z ECMWF was only 6 hours
behind the 00Z and 12Z GFS runs. If models do trend toward the GFS
with the front across West Central MN to Northeastern MN at 00Z
Saturday, then there would be a decent chance for thunderstorm
development with between 500 and 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE Friday
evening. If the FROPA is later as the ECMWF suggests, then we
could see a greater thunderstorm threat on Saturday in
Southeastern MN and West Central WI. Regardless, this system looks
to bring between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain for much of the CWA.
Conditions look to dry-out across Southeastern MN and West Central WI
between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning as high pressure
develops again. The Canadian NH model looks to bring a low
pressure system through Iowa and continued rain chances. Thus, the
forecast grids indicate a slight chance for precipitation late
Sunday into Monday. It would not be surprising if the Pops get
eliminated if the dry trend in the GFS and ECMWF continue.
Otherwise, high temperatures behind the front will be slightly
below normal for Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday looks to be slightly warmer with near normal temperatures
in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Shield of rain will slowly move east across the area this evening
and followed the idea of the HRRR with rain departing MSP around
4z and EAU a little after 6z. We have seen some spotty MVFR
vis/cigs with this, but the base state has be 6-8sm vis with 5k-
7k ft cigs, so that`s what we stuck with in the TAFs. We`ll clear
out quickly after 6z, with an skc kind of day Tuesday. Surface
ridge will be moving through during the day Tuesday, hence wind
direction making a turn from the northeast over to the southwest
via the east and south during the day, though speeds will remain
under 10 kts.
KMSP...Rain may stick around to 5z. CIGs will remain VFR, though
we could see vis drop to as low as 4sm with the -ra.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind light and variable.
Thu...VFR. Chc -SHRA in aftn. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TS/MVFR late. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...AMK
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level low over
Hudson Bay with wrly cyclonic mid/upper level flow through nrn MN
and the nrn Great Lakes. Mid/upper level clouds were streaming
into the region north a srn stream shrtwv into IA and a the main
frontal boundary into nrn IL. even though, a weak pres gradient
and winds have allowed lake breezes to move well inland,
relatively warm conditions prevailed over most of the area with
temps in the 70s to around 80, except right near the shore where
readings were in the 50s.
Tonight, expect some isolated showers may brush srn Upper Michigan
supported by mid level fgen moving eastward from nrn WI. However,
given the relatively dry low levels and little moisture inflow, only
slight chance POPs were included mainly near MN. Otherwise, low
pres sliding through far nrn Ontario will drag a cold front
through Lake Superior and Upper Michigan late tonight.
Tuesday, High pres building into the area with nrly winds will bring
substantially cooler air into Upper Michigan, especially near or
along Lake Superior where temps mainly in the 40s are expected.
Further south, max readings should still climb into the upper 60s
near the WI border. Very dry air will also move in with min RH
values again in the 20-25 percent range along with winds gusting
into the 15-20 mph at times may result in increasing fire weather
concerns.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018
Surface high pressure initially in control of Upper Michigan at
the start of the long-term period will give way to an unsettled
pattern by the end of this week. While there are increasing
discrepancies in model solutions by Friday into the weekend, there
are general agreements among the models that a front looks to drop
south into the U.P. by late Wednesday, slowing to a stall
Thursday into Friday. As shortwave perturbations ride the
periphery of a weakening trough as it hits the Rockies, these
shortwaves should be enough to kickstart the stalled front again
by Friday, allowing for another front to make its way through the
region over the weekend. Therefore, look for the better precip
chances over the land to make an appearance as early as Thursday
across the western third of the U.P., with more widespread chances
arriving overnight Friday through Saturday night. If the progress
of these discussed systems are slower, could see those more
widespread rain chances holding off until later Saturday.
Although winds on Wednesday look to remain below critical
thresholds for fire weather concerns, southwesterly to westerly
surface flow with a WAA regime will allow for temps to rise well
above normal for mid-May. Couple these abnormally warm temps with
a dry airmass, and this spells potential heightened concerns
related to fire weather, given the low RH values expected. Please
see the Fire Weather Planning discussion for more details.
These rather warm temps are expected to persist through the end of
the week, with perhaps some cooling back toward normal this
weekend, thanks to cloud cover, precip potential, and eventually,
the passage of the aforementioned front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 747 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018
A dry low-level air mass will continue to dominate, resulting in VFR
conditions prevailing at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. Ahead
of approaching high pres, there will be some increase in winds late
tonight into Tue aftn at KCMX and especially KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 406 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018
A cold front moving through the area late tonight will bring
northerly winds in the 20-25 knot range for late tonight into
Tuesday. Otherwise, no gales seen this forecast period.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...lg
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Update for 00z aviation only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Ridging aloft and at the surface continues to break down today, with
convection developing back to our west in central Missouri this
afternoon. May have an isolated shower/storm in far western counties
later this afternoon. Hi-res guidance, particularly the HRRR and WRF-
ARW are more robust bringing in convection to portions of the region
this evening as it propagates east/southeastward from the St Louis
area. Went with slight/low end chance Pops across northwest counties
to account for this, and will closely monitor as the trend becomes
clearer over the coming hours.
A more unsettled weather pattern is taking shape over the coming
days, as a frontal boundary to our north sags south into the area
combined with tropical moisture streaming northward from the Gulf
Coast states. Slight to chance PoPs exist nearly every period,
although convection should generally be more scattered in nature
much of the time. The greatest coverage should tend to be during the
afternoon/evening hours.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. However,
due to increased cloud cover and precipitation entering the picture,
high temperatures will cool a few degrees each day, with highs only
in the mid 80s by Wednesday. Low temperatures will remain up in the
mid to upper 60s the next 3 nights.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
An unsettled period of weather is anticipated, with periodic chances
of showers and storms, along with above normal temperatures.
An upper trof (just to our east) will be slow moving over the Ohio
Valley, Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast region Thursday through
Friday. Over the weekend, the trof will move farther away, with mid
level ridging edging back over the area. At the surface, a
stationary boundary should be across the region through Friday,
lifting back to our north over the weekend.
Scattered showers and storms expected Thursday through Friday
especially with peak heating and max instability. PoPs should taper
off Friday night through Saturday, then return and increase late
Sunday through Monday, as the model consensus is for the front to
drop back south into the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
had to introduce a prob30 for Tuesday around 17z. Also tempo MVFR
cigs and vsby with any storms that make it into the area.
Otherwise no big changes to TAF`s.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...KH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
813 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018
Updated forecast to decrease pops for the southeast
mountains/adjacent southern I-25 corridor tonight through Tuesday
morning as latest short res models continue to suggest second
round of activity will be most widespread across Northern El paso
county this evening before blossoming across the eastern plains
to the east of LHX overnight. This is likely in response to
upglide over the front with intensifying low level jet helping to
realize some limited elevated instability. CAPE is not all that
great though, and actually looks quite a bit lower than runs from
yesterday...and this does not build confidence in the exuberant
hrrr runs which actually suggest the potential for a few strong
storms across the far eastern areas after midnight. As upslope
intensifies overnight some activity could develop westward into
the Raton Mesa region. Quite a bit of uncertainties with this...so
pops have been trended down along their western fringe for now
and trended up for the far eastern plains. Don`t think
thunderstorm intensities will be all that strong after midnight
given limited instability but will be keeping an eye on this. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018
...Isolated severe storms possible today with showers/tsra tonight.
More storms possible tomorrow late...
Currently...
At 2 pm, a cluster of strong to severe storms was moving east over
the Palmer Divide north of the NWS PUB CWA. Tail end of this
activity was affecting extreme norther El Paso county. Another weak
updraft was trying to fire west of Pueblo. HRRR still was trying to
initiate convection off the Wet mtns although latest runs do not
appear as vigorous as earlier runs. Latest mesoanalysis was
indicating about 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE over the plains and deep
shear was quite strong, running about 40/60 knots.
Rest of this Afternoon into Tonight...
Isolated svr tsra is main concern over the eastern plains. Question
is can storms overcome capping inversion? If they do, then potential
for svr activity is rather high given the quality shear and
sufficient CAPE over region.
Most latest guidance continues to indicate the potential for late
night tsra/showers over the s mtns/plains as disturbance moves
across the fcst area during the early morning hours. This
disturbance combined with plenty of llvl moisture and remnant CAPE
should allow for scattered tsra to occur, with small hail possible
with the stronger convection.
With activity over plains tonight, should see quite a bit of clouds
over the lower elevations towards sunrise.
Tomorrow...
Some remnant showers will still likely be ongoing after sunrise but
activity should decrease as the morning progresses.
With quite a bit of low clouds over the plains tomorrow morning
atmosphere will be slow to destabilize, so isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will likely get a slow start, with most activity
occurring during the late afternoon or maybe holding off into the
early evening hours. Overall best chance of storms will likely be
over the eastern slopes of the s mtns as best instability will be
realized this area during the afternoon time period.
It will be cooler tomorrow and expect max temps over the plains to
only reach into the U60s to L70s.
Over the interior mtns and valleys, there will be a better chance of
showers and thunderstorms than the last few days, especially over
the central mountain region. Over the SW mtns expect it to be mainly
dry with only isold tsra.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018
The upper level low that has been affecting our region begins to
merge with another upcoming upper level low on Tuesday night. A
ridge will propagate into the region Wednesday afternoon and will
continue to affect the region into Thursday. The previously
mentioned upcoming upper level low will continue to propagate
easterly during this time, and by Friday afternoon will eject off of
the Rockies and over the plains. The low pressure passage will make
for a cloudy and stormy end of the forecast period for the region.
Tuesday Night through Thursday...
A lingering isolated storm may continue into Tuesday night, but
should dissipate in the early morning hours on Wednesday. During the
day on Wednesday a ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen
over the region, resulting in warmer temperatures and relatively
light surface flow. A dry line develops over the eastern plains,
near the border of Kansas and Colorado, which may spark some
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. CAPE values are in the vicinity
of 1500-2000 j/kg, but the environment is lacking strong shear, as
analyzed by model resolved hodographs. The exact location of the dry
line is subject to change, so check back, but PoPs were added to
eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will span the 80s
over the plains, the San Luis Valley and the Upper Arkansas River
Valley should experience temperatures in the mid 70s, and Lake
County will have temperatures in the 60s.
The temperatures will be even warmer on Thursday, as the ridge
continues to strengthen over the region. Temperatures will straddle
the 90 degree mark across the plains. Near critical fire danger will
exist Thursday afternoon over the Spanish Peak / Raton Mesa region,
as a lee cyclone forms off of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. The winds will increase, the fuels are dry, and the RH
values will be marginal. The San Luis Valley will have strong enough
winds and low enough RH values, but the fuels are still moist enough
to be removed from critical fire criteria.
Friday through Monday:
Friday afternoon could also be a critical fire weather day for the
southeastern plains, Spanish Peak country, and the San Luis Valley.
The limiting factor will be how strong the winds are over the
Spanish Peak region, the limiting factor for the southeastern plains
will be how the low the RH values will reach, and finally, the
limiting factor of the San Luis Valley will be how moist the fuels
are. Later in the afternoon a cold front will pass over the region
as the main upper level low ejects over the plains. The cold front
will spark thunderstorms over the Palmer Divide in the afternoon
continuing to form behind the cold front as it continues to
propagate southeast.
On Saturday and Sunday, the backside of the low pressure center,
upslope flow may spark thunderstorms over the mountains during the
day, the storms should stay over the mountains, though, as the
environment over the plains is not conducive to support
thunderstorms. Widespread cloud cover will exist everywhere else,
which will inhibit daytime heating, so expect a cooler weekend.
Monday afternoon could be interesting day for thunderstorms, as CAPE
values are high and shear values are also high, but it is much too
far out to pinpoint thunderstorm development and intensity, so check
back as certainty increases.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018
Difficult forecast for KCOS and KPUB due to potential for late night
shower/-tsra activity. Depending on extent of activity, may see more
clouds/lower cigs. For now will just keep prob30 in taf and mention
potential for MVFR cigs at the two taf sites. Cloud may linger into
tomorrow morning. Isold tsra will once again be possible late
tomorrow afternoon.
KALS should be VFR next 24 hours. Gusty sw winds will occur this
afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...HODANISH