Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/14/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
945 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain oriented west to east across the
region through mid week. Several weak low pressure systems will
track east along this front over the next several days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...Adjusted overnight pops including some of Monday as
well based on HRRR and current radar. For the overnight radar
shows showers with embedded thunder tracking east into the area
from Indiana. This is the dissipating remnants of a convective
system earlier in the evening. Believe this will continue to
weaken as it continues east into the area and have brought it
into the southwest counties before it fully dissipates.
Late tonight/towards morning the HRRR shows another convective
complex tracking east-southeast out of srn lwr MI. May not get
into the CWA by 12Z although the HRRR does have convection in
the northwest corner of the state. The model continues to track
this complex ese across Ohio through the morning and early
afternoon so brought this convection across the area through the
morning into early afternoon before shading back toward the
previous pop grids.
Original...A few lingering showers southeast of a Canton to
Youngstown line will continue to push east over the next hour or
two, otherwise dry conditions are expected across the area this
evening and most of the overnight. Low clouds continue to hang
on across much of the area, primarily north of US-30, and aside
from some late afternoon/early evening breaks, expecting the
clouds to fill back in throughout the overnight. With the
lighter winds and plenty of boundary layer moisture, there could
be some fog that develops throughout the overnight, especially
where some evening breaks in the clouds persist. Otherwise, lows
will drop into the low to upper 50s across the area.
Attention turns to upstream convection that is expected to
develop across eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL late this
evening on the nose of a strengthening low level jet. Hi-res
guidance has been consistent with this signal, with convection
growing upscale into a more linear MCS as a cold pool develops,
propagating east-southeast in a zonal mid/upper flow regime
along a low level instability gradient. The timing looks to
bring the convection east across northern IN late in the
overnight and into northwest OH tomorrow morning. Given this
timing, expecting the MCS to be in a relatively decaying state
as the LLJ weakens steadily after 12Z. Have generally trended
pops with a 13-17Z west to east propagation across the area,
with high likely pops diminishing slowly as it tracks across the
area. By 18Z, the convecting cluster should be exiting the area
to the east, with a good period of dry conditions expected
across the area Monday afternoon. As far as expected severe
potential early Monday morning, the best chances should remain
south with a bulk of the instability remaining south of the
area. Some of the models are showing 1000-2000 j/kg pushing back
into the far southern part of the area by 12Z, so a conditional
severe risk isn`t out of the question along and south of a
Findlay to Millersburg line, contingent on the timing/track of
the MCS. With a quick exit of convection across the area and
weak subsidence behind the MCS, expecting high temperatures to
recover quite nicely tomorrow. Have leaned toward the warmer
MAV/EC MOS for highs, with much of the area recovering into the
low 80s.
Have continued with mid range chance pops Monday night as the
low level jet ramps back up and the surface boundary lifts a bit
farther north into the area. Hard to pinpoint any specifics
this far out, but early evening development and upstream
convection moving in late in the overnight might be the flavor
of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
There should be some morning convection on Tuesday but believe it
will race out of the region quickly. This may set the stage for some
instability to build across the region as the warm front lifts
toward Lake Erie. Outflow boundaries will play a role in the
convective initiation Tuesday afternoon across the southeast third
of the County Warning Area (CWA). Severe thunderstorms are a
definite possibility but will not mention in the HWO yet. Want to
see a couple more model runs before jumping on it since there is
plenty of mesoscale processes that may impact it.
High pressure will then attempt to ridge southward across the area
on Wednesday. It is uncertain that it will be strong enough to push
the frontal boundary far enough south to remove rain chances. Have
nudged the chances southward for Wednesday afternoon/evening. Models
then hint on a slightly better push of Gulf of Mexico moisture into
the area on Thursday so chances of thunderstorms will drift
northward toward Lake Erie.
If the convective debris cloudiness thins as expected on Tuesday it
will be the warm day of the short term period. Highs should range
from near 70 along the lakeshore to the lower 80s south. Slightly
cooler Wednesday into Thursday but highs will be above seasonal
averages. Highs should range from the middle to upper 60s near the
lake to the upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper high will dominate the eastern seaboard while an upper
trough is situated west of the area. A stationary front will be
draped across the area Thursday into at least Saturday
morning...hovering slightly each day. This will bring at least a
chance of showers to much of the region each day with the
possibility of thunderstorms...especially during the daytime
hours Thursday through Saturday morning. Otherwise...the upper
ridge will shift east slightly on Saturday with the upper trough
moving east toward Ohio. A cold front is slated to pass east
through the area with continued showers possible. Moral of the
story...expected unsettled weather in the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Not much has changed over the past 24 hours with a cold front
to our south and overrunning moisture streaming east across the
area. Currently northern Ohio and nwrn PA are rain free however
convection approaching from the west will likely impact the area
from FDY through MFD if it holds together. Also models depict
an area of showers/tstms moving in from the west towards morning
Monday. Otherwise area remains in a moist cool environment MVFR
nern OH and nwrn PA. The remaining terminals are VFR. Through
the evening and overnight expect CIGS and VSBYS to gradually
lower through MVFR possibly into IFR in the cool moist air.
Conditions should improve to VFR Monday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in scattered showers/thunderstorms late
Monday night through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Frontal boundary over central Ohio this afternoon will continue to
wobble south of the lake through at least the middle of the week.
Expect to see light and variable winds across the lake into Monday
night. A stronger piece of low pressure will move across the region
on Tuesday. Northeast winds should increase enough for a small craft
advisory Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. After that high
pressure should ridge southward across the lake with light winds
returning until Thursday. By Thursday afternoon a northeast wind
will increase as the pressure gradient tightens between high
pressure over Quebec and low pressure over the middle Mississippi
River Valley.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/TK
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Mullen
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
949 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
.DISCUSSION...Only change made to the forecast was to bump the
wind speeds to SCEC levels over the southern near shore waters.
Expect these winds will diminish after midnight. Rest of the
forecast is on track.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 702 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.
AVIATION...No major changes from persistence with regard to
timing of MVFR ceilings later tonight as boundary layer moisture
profile appears to be similar to the past few days. There is
extensive cirrus shield from convection over the higher terrain in
northeast Mexico. Could see some spotty MVFR ceilings over the
coastal plains during the evening hours, but expect prevalent
MVFR ceilings will arrive around 06Z. MVFR ceilings expected to
move through the Brush Country and reach LRD area around 08Z.
MVFR ceilings will linger until 14Z over the coastal plains and
until 18Z over the Brush Country. VFR conditions expected for the
afternoon hours with gusty southeast winds over the Coastal Bend.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
An embedded short wave currently rounding the northwest periphery of
an upper level high pressure system near the Big Bend area, is
producing a few showers west of the CWA over Mex. The HRRR is
forecasting light precip to move across the Brush Country overnight.
The showers currently over Mex could possibly move into the western
CWA as they dissipate. Therefore, kept a mention of isolated showers
with a 10 pop this evening. The overnight hours are expected to be
quiet. Models prog conditions to be just a tad more favorable for
convection on Monday. Moisture will be slightly deeper along with a
stronger embedded short wave and increasing diffluence aloft.
However, the capping inversion and dry mid levels will hinder
convective development. Models are progging little to no QPF for the
CWA on Mon. Went with isolated showers with a 10 pop for Mon
afternoon just given the better upper dynamics. Slightly higher
dewpoints Mon night combined with some drying in the upper levels
may lead to patchy fog late Mon night.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The rainfall forecast can be summed up this way: the good news is
that the upper ridge will not remain the exact same through the long-
term; the bad news is that the upper ridge will likely strengthen
this week and make it even more unlikely for rainfall, at least
through Saturday. The upper ridge is forecast by the models to
become more amplified by mid week. This means continued warm (if not
warmer) and humid, with no rainfall in sight (there is a very low
chance for a shower early Tuesday morning if convection over the
Mexican Mountains gets that far east, but no inclusion in the grids.
By Sunday the ridge weakens/de-amplifies as the upper trough
approaches and the upper levels become more diffluent. Now, if it
has been wet from time to time I may be tempted to put in some rain
Sunday and Sunday night. However, given this is the Day 8 forecast
and it has been dry for some time (and model solutions can change)
prefer to keep the forecast dry for now). Otherwise, warm and humid
with above average temperatures during the daytime. Superblend is
going a bit cooler overnight in the mid week and looking at the 2
meter temperatures this may be a bit over-done so did warm things by
a degree or two on some overnight lows. Otherwise, went with a blend
of Bias-Consensus All and Superblend for highs and Consensus-MOS and
Superblend for lows (with obvious adjustments as-needed).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 74 89 73 91 71 / 10 10 10 0 0
Victoria 72 90 70 93 69 / 10 10 10 0 0
Laredo 75 96 74 97 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 73 93 71 95 69 / 10 10 10 0 0
Rockport 75 87 75 87 73 / 10 10 10 0 0
Cotulla 73 94 72 96 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 73 91 72 95 70 / 10 10 10 0 0
Navy Corpus 77 88 76 89 75 / 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1142 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018
.AVIATION...
The remnant stratus deck will diminish shortly after midnight as low
level warm air erodes the lingering low level inversion. There looks
to be enough thinning of the mid/high clouds to promote some fog
development. With the increasing gradient overnight and potential
for some thickening high clouds, visibilities are not expected to
drop to IFR or lower. Showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop
overnight along the nose of strengthening inflow across nrn IL/srn
Wi, then advance across portions of srn Mi during the morning. The
better chances for thunder/heavier rain showers will be south of the
terminals. The potential rainfall and ample boundary layer moisture
will result in redevelopment of low clouds (sub 3k ft) across the
area.
For DTW...Showers and thunderstorms will be developing along the
IL/WI border over the next couple of hours, expanding in coverage
during the overnight. These showers/thunderstorms will track across
metro Detroit between 12Z and 16Z. The overall track for this system
will be to the east-southeast, taking the better chances for
thunderstorms south of the airport.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low in ceilings below 5000 ft tonight. Medium on Monday.
* Low in thunderstorms Monday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018
UPDATE...
There is a compact mid level MCV associated with a weakening area of
convection tracking across northern Indiana. This feature appears a
bit stronger than depicting by the hi res suite and suggests a
little better subsidence bubble in its wake. This raises some concern
that the strengthening inflow across MO/Srn Iowa tonight may ignite
convection a little farther south than earlier model solutions had
indicated (northern Illinois as opposed to far southern Wisconsin).
The latest HRRR is picking up on this to some degree and suggests the
deeper convection will slide from near Chicago late tonight into NW
Ohio toward mid-late Monday morning along the nose of the low level
jet. This solution still advances the northern edge of the showers
(embedded thunder) across the southern half of the forecast area,
mainly after 10Z. A forecast update will be issued to push the pops a
little later into the night and lower them north of the I-69
corridor. Given the inherent forecast uncertainty in these meso scale
systems, see no reason to raise pops across the south from the
current 60-70 percent.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018
DISCUSSION...
Active frontal zone will continue to reside near the southern
Michigan border over the next couple of days, with strong westerlies
(40+ knots of 0-6 KM bulk shear) in the outer fringe of the upper
level ridge centered over/near Tennessee making for a favorable
environment for severe storms. However, still questionable whether
southeast Michigan will ever get cleanly in the warm sector, or
close enough to the surface based cape, which looks to stay
predominantly in the Ohio River Valley.
Numerous upper level disturbances/impulses ejecting out of the
Central Plains, as large upper level low holds over the Great Basin
out west. Strong PV anomaly/northern stream trough tracking through
northern Ontario Monday evening will aggressive send the frontal
boundary south late Tuesday, which should assure a quiet Wednesday
with surface ridge in place. Before that, multiple opportunities for
showers/thunderstorms as moisture laden environment over Midwest/Iowa
spins up complexes. Another one looks to be developing along the
edge of the cap (10-12 C temps at 700 MB) near Quad Cities late this
evening, riding/propagating east-southeast overnight, with a good
chance to clip southern half of the CWA toward 12z Monday, with
heavy rain being the main concern as Detroit Metro area is primed
with the recent heavy rainfall. Post wave subsidence developing
Monday, but uncertainty with diurnal recovery during the day as low
clouds may prove difficult to mix out. None-the-less, high degree of
instability will develop over Illinois during the afternoon, and
another complex should get going by evening, advancing through
southern lower Michigan. Its possible the inflow will be sufficient
to maintain the complex, and there is a chance of severe storms
Monday evening (mainly along/south M-59), with both hail and wind
threat as 50 knots at 850 MB tracks through. 12z Regional GEM is one
of the more aggressive solutions, indicating a ribbon of 1000-850 MB
CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Like today, expecting low clouds to
struggle to dissipate during the day, and will temper expectations
for high temps to the mid 70s. If we do end up toward 80
degrees like previously forecast, severe chances will be
significantly increased, although HiRES ARW delays activity until
closer to midnight.
Looks like one trailing shortwave/upper level PV filament to track
through the Western Great Lakes Tuesday morning, potentially
sustaining or re-firing showers before frontal boundary makes the
definitive surge south of the Michigan border in the afternoon.
Increasing northeast winds off Lake Huron during afternoon will help
limit the max potential (70s), even as the airmass drys out and
late day sunshine develops.
Full/near full sunshine expected on Wednesday with previously
mentioned surface ridge, with highs responding in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees, as 850 MB temps progged to reach at least 12 C.
Weak surface ridge looks to hold on over the Great Lakes overnight
Wednesday and through the day Thursday under weakly confluent flow
aloft. Dry conditions and partly cloudy skies expected for Southeast
MI, with highs in the 70s on Thursday. Abundant gulf moisture over
the southeast CONUS will then inch its way closer on Friday as a
disturbance lifts from gulf coast toward our region. This will
likely phase with a shortwave moving in from the mid-Mississippi
Valley and bring a chance for scattered showers through the day
Friday and possibly into Saturday. Better chance for widespread
rainfall returns on Sunday evening as another shortwave trough and
associated surface low track through the region. Temperatures for
the extended period expected to remain relatively consistent with
highs in the 70s each day and lows in the 50s in the absence of
meaningful temperature advection patterns.
MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to extend southwest into the
area from parent high pressure over eastern Canada, maintaining
generally favorable marine conditions with winds of 15 knots or less
into the middle of the upcoming week. A stalled frontal boundary
along the southern edge of this ridge will continue to be the focus
for showers and occasional thunderstorms. There will be a low chance
of showers and thunderstorms on Monday across Lake Erie and Lake St
Clair with better chances on Tuesday as a more notable low pressure
system moves into the area along this front.
HYDROLOGY...
Periodic showers and thunderstorms can be expected from late tonight
through Tuesday morning several disturbances cross the area along a
stalled frontal boundary. The initial area of rain will focus over
southern portions of the forecast from late tonight through early
Monday morning. Rainfall amounts of up to one quarter of an inch
will be possible along the I-94 corridor with perhaps local amounts
closer to one half an inch near the Michigan state line.
Several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to bring more
widespread precipitation to the area from Monday evening into early
Tuesday. While amounts will vary considerably due to the convective
nature, it appears one half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall
will be possible over a fairly widespread area. Of course, locally
heavier amounts will also be possible with the strongest storms.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...SF/TF
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
608 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
Its been a cloudy and dreary day across most of central Nebraska,
but stratus has mostly cleared out across northern Kansas into
southeastern Nebraska. This is the first area we will be monitoring
for thunderstorm development this evening.
Convection-allowing models have been pretty consistent in timing of
this activity, bringing scattered storms through into this area
~7- 8pm and exiting to the east by around midnight. Although near-
surface parcels will remain capped, the RAP forecast soundings
show ~2000j/kg of elevated instability above 850mb. Shear in this
layer isn`t particularly impressive, but with that amount of
instability could definitely see some elevated hailers.
Around midnight, focus shifts northward to near the I-80 corridor
where convergence along an increasing low-level jet should force
the development of more scattered thunderstorms. With similar
instability and shear, a few of these storms could also produce
marginally severe hail. I fully agree with the latest outlook
from SPC which has expanded the Marginal risk across most of our
forecast area to better account for these storms.
As thunderstorms clear in the early morning, abundant low-level
moisture could lead to another round of fog and low stratus to start
the workweek on Monday morning. Like today, cloudy conditions will
likely continue through most of the day, but chances for
measurable precipitation remain relatively low through the daytime
hours.
Late Monday afternoon and evening, there is a marginal risk for
thunderstorms to develop across southeastern parts of the forecast
area. That said, models are generally depicting activity staying
closer to the stalled front and southeast of the forecast area
entirely. That said, any storms that do develop in could once
again be strong to marginally severe.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
Chances for precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night are pretty
minimal as the upper-level flow quiets down a bit. High temperatures
on Tuesday are expected to once again reach the mid to upper 70s
across the entire area as we see some appreciable sunshine.
Off and on chances for showers/t-storms return Wednesday through
Thursday as low-level flow once becomes more southerly again. This
will also allow temperatures to reach the 80s across most of the
area by Thursday.
A more substantial trough is forecast to move through the Rockies
Friday into Saturday, bringing us what appears to be our best chance
for rain next week. Details remain pretty vague at this point, but
expect multiple chances for showers/t-storms Friday and Saturday
along with cooler temperatures as we head into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
Low clouds will hold firm through the majority of the TAF period
north of a frontal boundary, with cigs primarily IFR but
occasionally dropping to LIFR tonight into Monday morning. Fog is
also a concern with the low level moisture in place. Elevated
thunderstorms are forecast primarily after midnight into Monday
morning due to a strengthening low level jet oriented over the
frontal boundary.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Fay
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
The stationary front that has been dominating the weather pattern
over the past few days in central, south central, and southeast
Kansas will continue to be the driving factor for chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the area this week as well. The
frontal system, which stretches across most of the CONUS from the
Desert Southwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic, will not only
bring chances for storms but also make the temperature forecast a
bit tricky, with very warm air to the south of the boundary but
relatively cool air to its north. The exact location of the
frontal boundary could make a big difference in regards to
afternoon highs experienced in far northwestern portions of the
CWA in central Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
Radar and satellite imagery showed a few showers with isolated
thunder that developed in south central Kansas earlier this
afternoon along the frontal boundary. Fairly strong capping has
prevented much in the way of thunderstorm development thus far,
aside from an occasional short-lived isolated non-severe storm or
two. Latest short term and hi-res models suggest that thunderstorm
activity will increase tonight across southwest Kansas sometime
around or just after 00Z. Latest HRRR runs show that this activity
will make its way into the central and south central Kansas areas
of the CWA this evening/tonight. Model soundings show an eroded
cap through the night and into the morning for these locations,
suggesting that convergence along the boundary could produce a few
scattered stronger and even a few modestly severe storms
throughout the evening and overnight. Although large hail cannot
be completely ruled out due to the thermodynamic environment, less
than impressive deep-layer shear should somewhat dampen the
threat for very large hail, so thinking the main threat will be
severe wind gusts. The latest SPC convective outlook includes
portions of south central KS in slight risk, with the rest of the
area (excluding southeast KS) in a moderate risk through 7am
Monday.
Another round of chances for showers and thunderstorms will
return for Monday evening into Tuesday. An axis of fairly strong
convergence along the frontal boundary sometime after 00Z looks to
be the best chance for showers and storms, though smaller chances
are possible even before this time. CAPE well in excess of
2500J/kg along with eroded inhibition and 700-500mb lapse rates
around 8C/km could produce a setup for strong or severe storms
once again. Bulk shear is still not super impressive, though does
look more favorable for large hail than the Sunday evening-Monday
morning time frame. Localized flooding may also be a concern if
storms are slow moving or train over the same areas as PW in the
1-1.5 range is expected. However, RH appears to be a little low in
the convective layer and upper winds a little too strong for a
classic flash flood scenario. SPC`s slight risk area encompasses
most of the CWA for Monday evening, in alignment with the local
thinking that the setup will be slightly more favorable than
Sunday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely linger on
Tuesday evening and Wednesday, though the severe parameters do not
look nearly as impressive as the Monday-Tuesday morning time
frame. Some strong storms are possible, but any severe storms that
do occur should be fairly isolated in nature. Afternoon high
temperatures should continue to remain well above normal across
the area, but are expected to be a few degrees lower than the
sweltering heat that has been experienced over the past few days,
particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
The active pattern will continue throughout the extended period
with ample moisture advection continuing to be pushed into the
area as the frontal boundary continues to seesaw back and forth
across the CWA. Chances of showers or thunderstorms have been
included in the forecast for each day through next weekend. A few
strong or marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out at this
time, though predictability and confidence of exact timing and
threats is fairly low at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
A few storms could affect portions of central Kansas into the late
evening hours, otherwise low clouds and possible fog could develop
over Russell TAF site towards daybreak. Storms are expected to
develop in the afternoon along the frontal boundary over central
Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 69 90 65 83 / 30 20 50 30
Hutchinson 68 88 62 81 / 50 20 40 20
Newton 69 88 64 81 / 40 20 50 20
ElDorado 69 88 65 82 / 30 20 40 20
Winfield-KWLD 70 89 66 83 / 20 20 50 30
Russell 61 82 58 79 / 50 20 30 20
Great Bend 63 84 59 79 / 50 10 30 20
Salina 67 88 62 82 / 60 20 40 20
McPherson 67 87 62 81 / 50 20 40 20
Coffeyville 70 88 68 84 / 10 20 30 40
Chanute 70 87 67 83 / 10 30 30 40
Iola 70 87 67 83 / 10 30 30 30
Parsons-KPPF 71 88 67 84 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAV
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
932 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
.UPDATE...
Convection has come to an end this evening with light winds and
mostly clear skies expected to prevail overnight. NAM, HRRR and
SREF all hinting at the possibility of some morning fog once
again so inserted patchy fog wording areawide from 09 to 13Z.
High pressure remains progged to build further west across the
area Monday making way for a broad tropical low to bring heavy
rains to parts of Florida. For us, the opposite will occur as the
high will suppress most, if not all, afternoon convection. Did
insert low end POPs across lower acadiana where short range
guidance is indicating a few isolated showers or thunderstorms may
develop. With fewer clouds will come warmer temperatures with
lower 90s possible areawide and a few mid 90`s not out of the
question across central Louisiana as an early season heat wave
gets underway.
Jones
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
DISCUSSION...
For the 05/14/18 0000 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
Lingering isolated shower activity should come to an end over the
next couple of hours or so, with VFR prevailing for the remainder
of the evening and into the early overnight hours. Thereafter,
guidance is again suggesting the potential for reduced VSBYS
toward early MON morning. Used a blend of this guidance and
persistence to insert TEMPO MVFR at the coastal sites and a longer
period of prevailing MVFR at KAEX. VFR expected all sites by mid
morning and the rest of the day, though isolated afternoon
convection will again be possible.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
DISCUSSION...
A weakness aloft has allowed the development of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over southwest Louisiana this aftn.
Activity will end twrds ss. Temps are expected to fall back twrds
70 by sr tmrw mrng w/ some BR expected over sw La mainly in areas
that picked up some rain tdy. In addition skies to becm mostly
clr.
There is an area of low pressure that will swirl around the
eastern gulf moving up twrds the Florida panhandle around midweek.
This will keep sinking air aloft over the western gulf which in
turn shut down most aftn storm development. This area looks to
move onshore moving into Alabama twrds Thursday morning merging w/
a shrtwv rippling acrs the southern states during this period.
The ridge to hold for the most part into next week. Summertime
temps expected through the week... and it is time to remember to
drink plenty of fluids if you are working outside.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 68 92 68 94 / 20 10 0 20
LCH 70 89 69 93 / 20 10 0 10
LFT 70 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 20
BPT 71 90 69 92 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
911 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
.UPDATE...
911 PM CDT
No big changes planned to overnight forecast, but typical forecast
uncertainty of location/placement of the elevated storms does
exist. Evening soundings sampled a very impressive elevated mixed
layer (EML) with H7-5 lapse rates at OAX/SGF around 9C/km. The 00z
soundings at DVN/ILX show the eastern extent of this EML does
reach east into IL and it would appear that SPC`s RAP based
mesoanalysis does show the very impressive EML and pool of very
steep mid level lapse rates. The EML will continue to provide a
strong capping inversion over the warm sector leaving the primary
path for parcels to reach their level of free convection (LFC)
being through slantwise isentropic ascent over the quasi-
stationary boundary over northern MO into central IL.
Always tricky to determine how far north and just how much forcing
isentropic ascent will be necessary for parcels to reach the LFC,
which can make it difficult to pinpoint the location of elevated
convection. GOES-16 simple water vapor RGB this evening does show
evidence of a shortwave moving from northeast Nebraska into
northwest IA. Guidance would suggest that this shortwave is weak,
but will probably be enough to provide some focus for elevated
storms tonight as the nocturnal low level jet and subsequently
isentropic ascent both strengthen.
Given the farther northward extent of the EML over IA, wonder if
the more favored region for initiation will be over eastern IA
into northern IL/southern WI. Reasonably consistent signal in
guidance that convection could grow upscale into an MCS overnight,
though recent runs of the HRRR and RAP have trended less organized
and less widespread with development overnight. Given the typical
uncertainties with placement of nocturnal elevated convection, not
planning any changes to going forecast. Preponderance of the
evidence would still point to a strong signal for convection over
northern IL overnight and going forecast reflects that nicely.
Given the very steep lapse rates and modest effective shear,
initial updrafts will probably pose some threat for large hail.
With time, assuming convection grows upscale as would be expected,
the threat should transition more toward just heavy rain. If
strong cold pool develops, would need to monitor for a damaging
wind threat developing overnight as low level jet veers more
westerly into the backside of the MCS. This would also be a time
to watch for potential for training cells by upwind into the LLJ.
Convection tonight, particularly if it becomes well organized,
will re-enforce the synoptic front and slow its northward
progression. Guidance does show front making some pretty
impressive northward progress by tomorrow afternoon, but that
could be suppressed or at least delayed by tonight`s storms.
Updated grids have been shipped, updated text products will be
coming shortly.
- Izzi
&&
.SHORT TERM...
239 PM CDT
Through Monday...
Continuing to monitor the convective complex over eastern Iowa. IR
satellite suggests the system is maintaining intensity aka neither
intensifying nor weakening. I have low confidence in exactly how
well the complex will hold together as it moves across the forecast
area. Scattered clouds have allowed MUCAPE values to rise to 2000
J/kg across the far southern forecast area with steep mid-level
lapse rates. There could be enough energy to keep the storms going
as they reach the I-39 corridor. The strongest storms may produce
large hail, but all storms will produce heavy rain. I think storms
will then weaken as they continue east since areas east if I-39
haven`t destabilized as much.
Attention then turns to another round of storms tonight. I do not
think this afternoon`s dying convection will have much of an impact
on storms tonight. The quasi-stationary boundary moves toward I-80
tonight as another upper level wave passes over the forecast area.
Widespread showers and storms are expected to form initially north
of I-80. Steep mid-level lapse rates suggest large hail is possible
in the strongest storms. Storms should grow to the southeast and
eventually cover most of the forecast area late tonight. If any
bowing segments form, damaging winds will be possible.
All storms will produce heavy rain, but I do not have enough
confidence to issue a flash flood watch. Storms look like they
will be progressive enough where flash flooding will be isolated
at best. If storms train though, flash flooding will be possible,
especially across the few areas that saw heavy rain last night.
The showers and storms weaken and shift east Monday morning leading
to a humid and hot day away from the lake. The stationary boundary
shifts north of the forecast area allowing high temps to climb into
the 80s to near 90s in the far southern portions of the forecast
area. Onshore flow will keep lake side temps in the 60s. Dewpoints
in the 60s will result in heat indices in the upper 80s south of I-
80.
Add in an other upper level wave, and yet another round of
thunderstorms is expected. I think the majority of storms will occur
Monday evening (see the long term discussion for more info), but I
can`t rule out isolated to scattered development in the afternoon
given the warm and moist conditions. As such I ramped afternoon
precip chances up through the afternoon.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
206 PM CDT
Monday night through Sunday...
Weather will remain active at the start of the period with
thunderstorms likely still ongoing Monday evening, stemming from
late afternoon development. Afternoon scattered thunderstorms will
likely become more widespread by early evening, with a continued
large hail and damaging wind threat over much of the CWA. Details
beyond this become unclear, as pattern looks to become really
messy. A likely scenario would be for convection to transition
into multicell clusters and progress to the east during the
overnight hours. However, continued development throughout the
night will be possible and will continue chances for much of
Monday night. Continued stream of mid level energy is likely and
with surface trough/front still in place, at least some scattered
development will be possible.
Instability axis does appear to begin to shift south later Monday
night into Tuesday, though surface trough/low and boundary will
likely still be in place somewhere around the southern CWA. With
the potential for large scale ascent to be in place, have
continued chance thunder for Tuesday with the highest chances
south of I-80. Pattern looks to finally break Tuesday night, with
high pressure trying to build south across the region. This would
help to push any additional thunderstorm chances south of the area
through midweek. However, guidance does vary with how much this
high will suppress convection to the south, with additional precip
chances by midweek not too far south of the area. For Wednesday,
have continued slight chance/chance pops across the south to
account for this. Similar trends are possible towards the end of
the work week, but area wide precip chances return by the weekend.
Rodriguez
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Tricky forecast on tap with lowering ceilings expected along with
a couple additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Precipitation: Early this evening, a cluster of thunderstorms is
moving east into northwest Indiana, but expect a lull in
precipitation in its wake over the next few hours as this initial
wave moves off to the east. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to redevelop by late across eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois, and quickly expand east into northeastern Illinois and
northwest Indiana. Storms will continue to develop within the same
region through much of the overnight hours and should gradually
end from west to east during the predawn and early morning hours
Monday. Should be a lull in precipitation through the early half
of the day, with thunderstorm chances increasing again during the
mid-late afternoon, and becoming more likely during the evening.
At this point, confidence in timing and location isn`t very high,
and may have to refine timing in the TAFs as the picture becomes
more clear.
Ceilings and visibility: Low MVFR and IFR ceilings are occurring
over far northern Illinois into Wisconsin this evening and are
expected to spread south across the terminals overnight. Expect
IFR to prevail at the terminals by late tonight through mid
morning Monday with gradual improvement thereafter. It`s possible
that with light winds late tonight, that ceilings build down lower
than advertised along with some potential for br/fog.
Winds: Winds will be relatively light through much of the TAF
period, 10 kt or less. East winds are generally out of the east
this evening and are expected to veer to the southeast overnight
as a weak low helps to the lift the warm front over central
Illinois farther north. Confidence in the winds late tonight into
the morning hours Monday is fairly low and may be impacted by
precipitation. Eventually expect northeast winds off the lake to
overspread the Chicago area terminals again during the afternoon.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
206 PM CDT
A nearly stationary surface boundary will remain in place south
of the lake for the next few days as multiple surface waves shift
eastward along this boundary. Overall, this pattern will result in
bouts of showers and thunderstorms over mainly the southern end
of the lake through midweek. No notable periods of high winds or
waves are expected at this time, outside of any thunderstorm
development. However, high pressure moving into the region by
midweek could be stronger than currently forecast. If this were to
occur, then a stronger northerly wind could occur.
KJB/Rodriguez
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
901 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018
.UPDATE...
A closed low pressure system, now sitting over the eastern Gulf,
continues to draw deep moisture northward across the Florida
peninsula. The 00Z MFL RAOB sounding has typical tropical
characteristics with long and skinny CAPE from 700 mb up to 200 mb
and deep southerly flow. For the remainder of the night, short
term models push additional showers and thunderstorms
periodically across the area, with highest concentration along
the east coast metro region. The main threat with this activity
will be heavy rain leading to areas of urban and small stream
flooding, and occasional lightning strikes. In the update,
increased PoPs along the east coast late tonight, and added a chance
of thunderstorms along the east coast metro and adjacent Atlantic
waters, as conditions are expected to destabilize later tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 746 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018/
AVIATION...
Widespread showers, heavy at times, will continue at most of the
Atlantic terminals through 01-02Z, with CIGS/VIS possibly
lowering to IFR-LIFR under +RA. VCTS with MVFR-IFR periods are
also possible tonight and through Monday morning. Variable gusty
winds may also accompany the stronger cells.
Convection will remain possible through the rest of the TAF
period and beyond.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Current water vapor imagery loop displays a large swath of mid
and upper level moisture drifting northward over the Florida
peninsula. This moisture push is associated with a deepening low
pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, a few hundred miles west
of our CWA. This mornings MFL RAOB sounding showed an increase in
PWAT at 1.84 inches, compared to an inch and quarter 24 hours
ago. CAPE values near 1500 J/KG indicated a decent convective
potential. However, the long and skinny CAPE profile resembles
that of a tropical sounding with an elevated threat of heavy
rainfall. Furthermore, thick cloud cover may damper diurnal
heating, lowering the atmospheric instability. None the less, as
the aforementioned low continues to advect deep tropical moisture
northward through tonight, expect periodic showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Short term models including the HRRR and
Hi-Res WRF indicate enhanced precipitation some time late tonight,
esepcailly over the eastern half of the peninsula.
Early this week: By Monday, the low will have wobbled slightly
further north, positioned in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf.
Anti- clockwise flow around the feature should continue to advect
deep tropical moisture northward over southern Florida. With
slightly less cloud cover, afternoon heating my lead better
instability with a chance of thunderstorms. 500 mb temperatures
begin to lower, down to -10C by the afternoon. This may also help
to destabilize the atmospheric further. Monday night into
Tuesday, the low is forecast remain nearly stationary. Thus, with
similar synoptic conditions in place, expecting deep layer south
southeast flow to persist over our region with abundant tropical
moisture spreading northward. This may again lead to additional
rounds of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The main
threats with with the storms will be heavy rain and cloud to
ground lightning strikes.
Mid to late week: On Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF prog the
500 mb low to become absorbed in the 500mb flow and transition to
an open trough. A stagnant high pressure cell over Bermuda will
keep the trough in place over the southeast CONUS through this
weekend. As the Florida peninsula remains sandwiched between the
high over the Atlantic and the through to the west, south
southeast flow should advect deep tropical moisture northward into
our region, prolonging enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity
for the entire forecast period.
MARINE...
Low pressure over the Gulf is forecast to bring showers, and
possibly a few thunderstorms, to the region for the next several
days. Seas are forecast to run 1 to 3 feet for the South Florida
Atlantic and Gulf waters for most of the week, although the seas
may increase periodically to 4 feet in the Gulf Stream. Small
craft should exercise caution while passing across the Gulf Stream
tonight, where east southeast winds could peak out at around 15
to 20 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 71 81 73 84 / 90 80 30 60
Fort Lauderdale 73 81 75 84 / 90 80 40 60
Miami 73 82 74 84 / 80 80 40 60
Naples 70 84 72 86 / 80 60 30 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...27/JT
DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...17/AR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
938 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
.UPDATE..
Quick update to remove precipitation chances across western
counties for the rest of the evening due to loss of heating
and increasing CIN. Convection continues across northwest
Texas this evening. Most of this activity will remain north
of the forecast area but can`t rule out an isolated shower
or thunderstorm affecting northern portions of the Big
Country and will keep isolated mention in the forecast
overnight. The rest of the forecast is in good shape with
no other changes needed.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Considerable high cloud cover will continue overspreading the area
early tonight. Expect low cloud development again overnight, from
south to north across the area. Low cloud ceilings are expected
to be in the 1500-2500 ft range early Monday morning. Ceilings
should climb above 3000 ft between 15Z and 16Z at KSJT and KABI,
and at our southern terminals around 16Z. A VFR-based cumulus
field is expected to be over much of West Central Texas early
Monday afternoon.
A few thunderstorms may develop along a dryline west of our area
this evening, and may move into our far western counties before
dissipating. Any of this convective activity is expected to stay
west of our TAF sites. For Monday, confidence in showers or
thunderstorms occurring at our TAF sites is too low for an
inclusion at this time.
South-southeast winds will continue tonight and Monday, and will
be somewhat gusty at times.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
.Possible Severe Thunderstorms Monday Afternoon...
With southwest flow aloft dominating West Central Texas tonight and
tomorrow, continuing low PoPs for these two periods looks
reasonable. The HRRR and NAM, really don`t show much potential for
our western counties this evening; nevertheless, for continuity will
continue rain chances this evening there. The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has our western counties in a General thunderstorm
area, and our northwestern Big Country counties fall with a Margin
Risk area, through 12Z Monday morning. So, the threat of severe
weather this evening and overnight looks low. For tomorrow, the NAM
develops convection along and near the dry line, across the Permian
Basin; however, the NAM doesn`t maintain any significant convection
as it moves into our counties. With SPC including most of our
counties in a Marginal Rick area, expanding slight chance PoPs,
across all our counties, for tomorrow looks best. The primary
thunderstorms threats for tomorrow are large hail and damaging
winds. Otherwise, look for temperatures to continue above seasonal
normals.
LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
West Central Texas will see increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances Monday night into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms developing
along a dryline from Midland to Lubbock Monday afternoon may move
east into the West Central Texas Monday night, with the Big
Country seeing the best storm chances. Some storms could be severe
with GFS SB CAPES of 2000 J/KG. A similar situations will occur
Tuesday afternoon/evening as storms develop along a cold front/dry
line from Lubbock to Big Springs region, then move east/southeast
in westerly flow aloft. SPC day 2 Outlook as a marginal risk of
severe storms over much of West Central (except southeast
sections). The Day 3 Outlook for Tuesday has the Big Country in a
marginal risk. Main threats are large hail and damaging winds.
Storm chances lessen Wednesday as the region becomes influenced
with upper ridging and subsidence. A chance of storms remains,
mainly over the Big Country. The later half of the work week is
drier, with storm chances returning over the weekend as upper
ridging is replaced by northwest flow aloft.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 90 68 91 / 10 20 50 30
San Angelo 72 90 68 93 / 10 20 30 20
Junction 70 89 69 92 / 10 20 20 10
Brownwood 69 89 68 90 / 10 20 30 20
Sweetwater 70 90 68 90 / 20 20 50 30
Ozona 69 88 67 90 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
821 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
.DISCUSSION...
The mid/upper ridge has shifted east, with light to moderate west
to southwest flow over the region today. At the surface, a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary stretches from southwest Kansas up
into southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa. The triple point was
located near Liberal Kansas, and a dryline extended south across
the eastern OK/TX Panhandles. Storms have developed along the
boundaries this afternoon, but have not shown much eastward
progress as of early this evening, still fairly close to the OK/TX
border, extending up into SW KS. The latest CAM guidance
continues to suggest that storms will weaken as they track into
western OK. However, there may be enough thunderstorm
activity/concentrated latent heat release to generate an MCV,
which would track toward our area late tonight, as the HRRR is
suggesting. This could bring at least a low chance of activity
into our area. The going forecast has low chances to the west and
north of Tulsa, and this will be maintained. The 12Z ARW suggested
that this MCV could generate some Monday morning convection over
our area.
Lacy
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 610 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this forecast
period. Thunderstorms developing over far western OK will move
east, likely dying out before reaching eastern OK. Some high-
resolution model data indicates re-generating convection across
eastern OK Monday morning, but for right now will keep any mention
of precip out of the forecast. South winds will again become
gusty in most areas after 15z Monday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Focus for convection this evening remains well to our west and
north with some potential for any remnant convection to spread
into northeast OK late tonight. Also there is a low chance of
renewed mid level convection tomorrow morning with 12z CAM members
the most aggressive in this development. Otherwise continued warm
and humid conditions Monday with storm development later in the
day edging closer to the forecast area and likely spreading into
portions of the area Monday night. Strong instability will develop
ahead of any evening storms and a period of some severe weather
risk could be realized before boundary conditions stabilized
sufficiently.
Tuesday through Wednesday likely mark the near term highest
chances for storms as deeper moisture and weakly capped profiles
reside in proximity to a meandering weak mid level disturbance.
Residual convective outflows along with the ill defined synoptic
sfc front will be focusing features. The deep moisture and rather
weak flow would favor localized wet downbursts and heavy rain
potential.
Ridging aloft expands Thursday and Friday marking a downtrend in
precip chances. Potential for a more aggressive frontal boundary
into the area next weekend but confidence remains low at this time
range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 72 90 69 83 / 10 20 40 50
FSM 70 91 69 87 / 0 10 20 50
MLC 71 88 69 83 / 10 20 20 50
BVO 68 89 68 83 / 10 20 50 50
FYV 63 87 66 82 / 0 10 30 50
BYV 66 88 67 84 / 0 10 20 50
MKO 69 88 68 83 / 10 20 40 50
MIO 70 88 67 83 / 0 20 40 50
F10 70 88 68 82 / 10 20 40 50
HHW 68 88 68 88 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30