Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/07/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1056 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will push offshore tonight through early Monday. High pressure will build from the Great Lakes to New England Monday and Tuesday as low pressure lingers off the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1050 PM EDT Sunday KAKQ radar showing numerous waves of convective showers in association with frontal boundary sliding offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast this evening. HRRR and incoming 00z CAMs are showing convective activity dropping off now through 06z, with areas of shras as the surface low sets up along the SE VA/NC coast, w/high pressure building to the NW across the Great Lakes. Northerly flow develops and moisture thickens below 800mb, mainly over the ern half of the area. Any lingering pcpn should become more stratiform (light rain or drizzle) late in the overnight into Monday morning. Briefly clearing sky inland will become partly to mostly cloudy once again late. Remaining mostly cloudy to overcast across the ern half of the area. Early morning lows in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday Model trends continue to show surface low pressure lingering off the coast Monday/Monday night and into Tuesday as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes to New England. This setup will result in NNE flow, which should continue through Tuesday. The chc of rain will be rather low due to dry air aloft (and throughout the layer above -10C). Ample moisture is progged per the GFS and NAM in the 900-800mb layer. Expect mainly overcast conditions with a gusty NNE wind along the coast Monday. A little warmer, but still mostly cloudy and cool farther inland as well. Highs Monday will average in the lower-mid 60s near the coast (upper 50s for the MD coast) to the upper 60s/lower 70s well inland. A 20- 30% PoP for mainly light rain is forecast over the ern third of the area, but any QPF will be light (a few hundredths at most). Lows Monday night/Tue am in the 50s. Continued to trended the forecast a little more cloudy and cool for Tuesday as well with a lingering 20- 30% chc of light rain toward the coast. Highs Tuesday are very similar to Monday with low/mid 60s along the coast (upper 50s for the MD coast), to the upper 60s/low 70s farther inland. The persistent pattern of onshore flow breaks down Tuesday night and Wednesday as surface high pressure ridges in from the N. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday night with lows in the low/mid 50s. Warmer Wednesday with highs warming into the upper 70s to near 80F well inland, with low 70s closer to the coast, and still mid/upper 60s at the immediate coast where a sea- breeze may prevail. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Sunday... Sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic moves offshore Wed night-Thu AM. This will allow temperatures to warm into the low-mid 80s inland/near 80 in coastal areas during the day on Thursday, as winds turn back to the S/SW. Sfc low pressure tracks through southeastern Canada on Thursday. The (weak) trailing cold front associated with this system will approach from the NW. This will set the stage for isolated- scattered showers/t-storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Highest PoPs (30-40%) still look to be over our northwestern counties. The weak cold front is forecast to pass through the bulk of the CWA by late Fri AM, but highs will still be between 79-84 on Friday. Summer-like weather will return next weekend, with forecast highs near 90 on both Saturday and Sunday. Slight chances for showers/t- storms will accompany the very warm weather. There are quite a few differences between the 12z GFS/ECMWF about the timing/placement of the rain next weekend. Therefore, went no higher than slight chc PoPs for now. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1050 PM EDT Sunday... Showers decrease in areal coverage overnight, as surface low pressure slides along the VA/NC coast overnight. Winds shifting to the N after midnight into Mon morning, with deteriorating conditions to IFR/MVFR between 06-12Z/Mon (PHF/SBY/ORF) as low level winds shift around to the NNE. VFR conds at RIC eventually drop into MVFR/IFR range late tonight into Monday morning. Outlook: A breezy NNE wind expected along the SE VA/NE NC coast on Mon, with MVFR/IFR cigs likely. Cigs will be a little higher farther inland but likely in MVFR range at RIC. Low clouds and at least a chance for drizzle/light rain will continue through Tue morning. Winds subside but remain out of the NE on Wed, with mainly dry wx and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 430 PM EDT Sunday... Low pressure off the Delmarva coast late this aftn, will move away to the NE tonight, while a weak cold front crosses the waters fm the west. Then, very late tonight thru Tue, winds will shift/and remain fm the NE, as low pressure remains off the east coast and high pressure will be over the Great Lakes region. Thus, expect winds at the mouth of the Ches Bay and Currituck sound and coastal waters to increase into SCA range Mon. This pattern results in a cool and rather breezy early week period with not the best boating conditions. Models agree this pattern continues for a while with rather high confidence that SCA`s will continue thru Tue night along the coast. Expect NE winds between 15-25 kt with seas building to between 5-7 ft. Kept the rest of the Ches Bay just below SCA levels for now, but still could be SCA`s acrs farther north portions of the Bay and the Lower James River. Expect the NE winds to diminish by mid week, but the onshore flow and swell from the departing low will likely keep SCA`s going for elevated seas into Wed. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...MPR/TMG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
941 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 The CAMS through the 01 UTC HRRR continue to favor isolated to scattered elevated rain showers and thunderstorms late tonight/early Monday morning southwest, potentially propagating into south central North Dakota and the James River Valley through the remainder of the morning. Again, this is in association with return flow as precipitable water climbs towards 1.0 inch, with steepening mid level lapse rates, and a few weak impulses embedded within the upper level ridge. UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 A quiet evening and overnight is expected with return flow commencing through the night. An isolated, elevated rain shower or thunderstorm is possible across the southwest and south central Monday morning as precipitable water climbs towards 1.0 inch, with steepening mid level lapse rates, and a few weak impulses embedded within the upper level ridge. This is signaled within the CAMs through the 22 UTC HRRR, and also the 18 UTC GFS. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 A developing lee side low pressure system tonight and Monday will bring increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms across southwest North Dakota Monday morning, and scattered thunderstorms across the western third of the state by Monday afternoon. Southerly low level flow ahead of teh surface trough will pull higher dewpoints into the northern plains as an approaching upper trough closes off in a weak upper low over north central South Dakota. Without any significant winds aloft and the 0-6 km wind shear fairly marginal the main thunderstorm threat would likely be small hail and gusty surface winds late Monday but more likely Monday night. Accepted the Superblend temperature guidance for tonights low and Mondays highs. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 The extended forecast continues to look active for showers and scattered thunderstorms, with the Monday night through Wednesday period and the Thursday and Friday periods looking promising for getting meaningful rainfall. Monday night looks marginal for severe weather with gusty winds and small hail the main threat. A generally progressive weather pattern will bring additional chances for showers Thursday and Friday with a positively tilted longwave trough settling over the northern plains by the weekend bringing significantly cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s Thursday and Friday and in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 935 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are possible across southwest North Dakota late tonight into early Monday morning, moving into the south central and James River Valley through the remainder of Monday morning. Additional scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop across most of western and central North Dakota late Monday afternoon and evening, and continue into the night. A few thunderstorms could become severe across the southwest and south central late Monday afternoon and evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PA SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...PA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...High pressure remains in control with light and variable winds becoming generally southeast on Monday under mostly VFR ceilings. Upper level clouds will continue to move eastward across the RGV overnight. As low level moisture recovers near daybreak, patchy fog may form across portions of the lower valley. Models are a bit more robust with moisture this evening than current observations, so confidence remains low. Will keep TEMPO MVFR visibilities for BRO, HRL and MFE at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Surface high pressure continues to settle in over South Texas this afternoon. The high center will wobble around the area over the next 24 hours, before starting to drift NE Monday afternoon/evening. Thus light winds will prevail, with some sea-breeze enhancement possible during the afternoons. Winds finally veer back to SE Monday night. Aloft, high clouds will stream by in the westerly flow at times until tomorrow night when the flow backs to NW. Dewpoints have already fallen to the 50s-low 60s F this afternoon and will even be a touch lower Monday afternoon as very dry air just above the surface mixes through the boundary layer. Lows will be in the low-mid 60s pretty much everywhere (except right along the coast) both tonight and tomorrow, or a couple of degrees below normal. The main forecast challenge is possible fog formation late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Near-calm winds and relative humidities approaching 100% would argue for its formation, as do BUFKIT RAP forecast soundings. However, MOS guidance is downplaying, and climatology does not favor thicker fog in early May. Patchy, shallow fog (such as observed this morning) may be the most likely outcome. Kept coverage inherited in the weather grid but adjusted timing. High temps Monday will be similar to today`s, with lots of 90s; this is a couple degrees above normal. Weather looks great for tomorrow`s Hurricane Awareness Tour stop in McAllen! Just remember the sunscreen. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the southwest United States Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas through most of next week especially Thursday through Saturday as a 500mb trough/low is expected to develop across the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper level feature across the western Gulf may provide some showers and thunderstorms offshore the lower Texas coast Wed night through Friday but not much in the way of rain chances if any are expected across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands through the week into the weekend. The global models are progging the potential for some rain towards the end of the forecast period but there are some timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF on a 500mb trough developing and moving into the southern plains. Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday but the better rain chances may not be until late Sunday or Monday with the upper level feature. As far as temperatures...very warm to hot temperatures are expected to prevail Tuesday through Sunday and will go a few degrees warmer than the blends for max temps through the forecast period. MARINE (Now through Monday night): As of 1:40pm CDT, Buoy 42020 reporting N winds of 8-10 knots with seas of 2 ft. High pressure nearby will keep winds at 10 knots of less, with onshore direction developing Monday afternoon. Slight seas of 2 ft. or less continue. Tuesday through Friday...Light south winds will prevail across the coastal waters Tuesday with surface high pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will move eastward across the northeast Gulf Wednesday and the pressure gradient will increase slightly across the lower Texas coast. Moderate southeast to south winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday through Friday. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1048 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show an area of low pressure moving into the eastern Great Lakes, while high pressure is building southeast into the state. After skies cleared this morning, rather high based cumulus popped with rising temperatures by midday, with broken conditions developing north and west of the Fox Valley. Looking upstream, conditions are quiet over Minnesota and the Dakotas, with only scattered cu and cirrus overhead. Therefore, forecast concerns mainly revolve around temps and low humidities over the next 24 hours. Tonight...The high pressure system will slide southeast across the region. Scattered flattened cu will likely persist into the early evening hours, while thin cirrus invades from the north. Neither should have much of an effect on temperatures. Lows should fall into the middle 30s over the north to the mid 40s over the southern Fox Valley. Monday...High pressure will shift to the central Great Lakes, leaving northern WI in the northwest sector of the departing high. This area is typically favorable in Spring for warm temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds. Though will have some high based cu pop with heat of the day, temps should warm into the low to mid 70s away from Lake Michigan. Humidities will likely fall into the low 20s over the northwoods, to the low 30s over parts of central WI. Winds, however, look to fall shy of red flag warning criteria, with sustained of 10 kts gusting to 15 kts. Will keep the elevated fire weather conditions in the HWO. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 Fire weather concerns on Tuesday and precipitation chances for the rest of the extended period are the main forecast concerns. A back door cold front will sag into northern WI on Tuesday, and may bring a small chance of showers. Cloud bases will be high, so any precipitation that reaches the ground should be very light. Light southwest winds ahead of the front will continue to bring mild air into the region, causing temperatures to rise into the 70s to around 80 inland, but only 60s near Lake Michigan. Deep mixing through 750-700 mb will mix enough dry air aloft down to the surface to drop dew points into the lower to middle 40s. This means that relative humidity may drop into the 25 to 35 percent range in the sandy soil areas, with the lowest readings over the far north. Elevated fire weather conditions may continue, though winds will light, with speeds in the 5 to 10 mph range. The front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front Tuesday night, so a chance of showers will persist over our northwest counties. Rain chances will increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system and associated upper level trough move through. Given precipitable water values increasing to 1.0 to 1.25 inches and the amplitude of the upper trough, we should see moderate rainfall with this system. Forecast confidence remains low for the rest of the forecast period due to differences among the medium-range models. A strong frontal boundary will set up just south of the region, with periods of moderate to strong overunning occurring at times. The GFS brings two significant rounds of moderate to heavy precipitation through the forecast area, on Thursday night/Friday, and Saturday/Saturday night. The Canadian is somewhat similar, though farther south with the first round. The ECMWF keeps most of the significant rain to our south from Friday through Saturday night. Given the uncertainty, will stick with the blended model pops, which focus on Saturday afternoon and evening as the most likely period for significant rain. More definition of the timing and rainfall amounts will be made during this period as models converge on a solution. The bottom line is that a round or two of significant rainfall is possible later in the week, which could cause flooding concerns to flare up again. Temperatures will start off well above normal, but drop to much below normal by Friday and Saturday. Cannot rule out a rain/snow mix over far northern WI late Thursday night and Friday night. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 VFR conditions expected through at least Tuesday AM. A period of high clouds tonight with high based cumulus clouds at times Monday, particularly during the afternoon. Surface winds become southerly Monday morning as high pressure moves east of area. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kieckbusch AVIATION.......JKL
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1154 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1155 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 Band of showers from early has all but fallen apart and dissipated as expected, with another batch of showers across central Kentucky set to spread into the Cumberland Plateau region in the next several hours. Updated pop and weather grids to focus the pops more in our southwestern areas through the remainder of the night, before this activity exits to the south prior to daybreak. Also freshened up the hourly temperatures and dewpoints. Starting to see a few pockets of dense fog developing where we have developed some holes in the cloud cover. May need to add in some dense fog if the trends continue. However, want to see how cloud cover behaves over the next few hours. UPDATE Issued at 824 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 Band of showers/isolated storms, continues to weaken as it pushes into our area as expected. Saw some nice outflow boundaries produce some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. However, with the updrafts showing a significant weakening trend, wind gusts potential is quickly decreasing. The forward momentum of the line is also slowing down due to the weakening updrafts. This trend will continue over the next hour or so and we can likely pull thunder from the forecast fairly soon. Still think we may contend with some isolated shower activity overnight as this boundary slows down or stalls over the area. UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 Line of showers/storms continues to move across central Kentucky and will be affecting our western zones in the next hour. Given the solid nature of the line and plenty of instability still in place, opted to raise pops to categorical for most of our western half of the area. The activity will weaken as it moves east and fall apart as it outruns the better instability. Thus, trailed off the pops to the east this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 19z sfc analysis shows a cold front inbound to the northwest. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has developed with this. Otherwise, returning sunshine and dry conditions made for a pleasant afternoon for most of eastern Kentucky - aside from lingering clouds and a shower in far eastern Pike County. The returning sunshine helped temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s most places - though 60s are still holding on in the far east. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are generally in the low to mid 50s across the area with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and occasional gusts to 15 mph. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a reinforcing of the general trough over the eastern Ohio Valley and Appalachians as energy seeps into the region on northwest flow at mid levels. The main batch of this passes through eastern Kentucky by 12z Monday with lesser bits to follow even as the upper trough starts to close off to the east Monday night. Given the good model agreement will favor a blended solution with a heavy lean on the HRRR and Nam12 for near term weather details. Sensible weather will feature a quick arrival of another round of showers and storms for most of the area this evening. Though, this batch will be fading as it enters eastern Kentucky and mostly dry up shortly after midnight with just a small chance for showers lingering in the southeast through dawn. CAA and low clouds follow keeping the temperatures fairly uniform varying a bit from northwest to southeast. For Monday a few showers may pop up in the far southeast as the upper low consolidates to our southeast and sfc high pressure only partially dries us out from the northwest. These small shower chances remain in the east into Monday along with stuck low clouds preventing much of a terrain difference for lows that night. Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for all the grids through Tuesday morning. Only made some point adjustments to temperatures during the period given the moist and cloudy environment. As for PoPs, ended up going higher this evening and through the night with the front - continued above guidance in the far east for Monday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 Overall the models are in fairly good agreement with the main features that will affect our weather from early week into next weekend. At the beginning of the period a mid level trough will be over the Appalachians with a weak inverted trough at the surface. Another mid and upper level trough with an associated surface low will be over the northern plains. The pattern will be fairly progressive, with each trough moving east through the mean flow. By next weekend another mid/upper level low will emerge from the Rockies into the Plains. For sensible weather the general pattern will result in generally above normal temperatures, with the warmest temperatures occurring next weekend with readings well into the 80s. The trough over the Appalachians will bring a chance of showers for the southeast on Tuesday. Wednesday should be dry, then the approach of the next mid level trough and associated surface front will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to the area from Wednesday night into Thursday. As the overall flow becomes more zonal by Friday the front will stall somewhere in the Ohio Valley before lifting back north by next weekend. As a result shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into Friday night. While most of next weekend looks dry and very warm with a front well to our north, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out by Sunday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 Band of showers and storms had been producing some gusty winds near KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM. However, this line is weakening quickly, with gust potential quickly decreasing. We could see some brief reductions in visibility with any of the rain showers as this line marches east, but ceilings should remain somewhat elevated due to the drier surface layer. Thus, aviation concern may be minimal through the first chunk of the night. However, some low ceilings or fog could form late tonight, so will have to keep an eye on that potential. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
913 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 .DISCUSSION...Water Vapor satellite trends this evening indicate a subtle mid-level shortwave trough embedded within a longwave upper level trough over the Eastern United States, placing the Mid-South within northwest flow aloft. Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms stretching from East Central Missouri to Southeast Missouri/Missouri Bootheel and weakening showers and thunderstorms over Middle Tennessee and Southeast Arkansas. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid- South are in the 60s to middle 70s. Latest 00Z WRF and HRRR indicates the potential for showers and thunderstorms to drop into the Mid-South for the remainder of the night, especially along the Mississippi River and perhaps across portions of West Tennessee. Updated grids will be available shortly. CJC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018/ UPDATE... Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018/ DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms have begun to pop up across Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon. Expect more development as we progress into the late afternoon and evening hours as a weak cold front pushes into the region. Put 40/50 POPS along and west of the Mississippi River this evening, but POPS may need to be increased further if some of the short term CAM models are correct. Some storms may become severe producing large hail. Expect the convection to become more isolated after midnight due to the loss of daytime heating thus continued 20 POPS for the overnight hours for areas along and south of I-40. Drier air will begin to filter into the area behind the front on Monday, but don`t expect much change in regards to temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Can`t rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms occurring along a corridor from Clarksdale to Tupelo as the front will still be in the vicinity. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will keep the weather tranquil Monday Night into Tuesday. With drier air in place, expect temperatures to be cool at night and warm during the day. Lows will drop into the 50s while highs stay in the lower to mid 80s. Another upper trof will move into region late Tuesday Night through Thursday and will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. At this point, timing is too hard to pinpoint on where and when the best chances for convection will occur. The upper flow will become more zonal by Friday with ridging occurring by the weekend. This pattern looks very summer like thus it could be the first hot and humid weekend of 2018. Highs will reach into the upper 80s across much of the CWA and would not be surprised to see a few locations reach 90 degrees sometime next weekend. Rain free conditions can be expected Friday into next weekend. KRM && .AVIATION... /00z TAFs/ A few thunderstorms will be possible this evening, mainly along/north of I-40. Convection will be weakening as it moves through the area by late evening with generally dry conditions anticipated by 08z. Primarily VFR conditions are expected thereafter, although some patchy fog is possible around sunrise (mainly at KMKL and KTUP). Otherwise, expect north winds of 5-9 kts on Monday with a high based afternoon Cu field. Johnson && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
925 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018 .UPDATE... Tonight...Cool front was just north of the local area at 00z and is progged to slide slowly down the peninsula to around Lake Okeechobee towards sunrise. Remnants of daytime heating convection were over southern sections and will be transitioning offshore or dissipating by around midnight. Low level winds ahead of the front are light, so with nighttime stability and a lack of frontal convergence, no additional showers are forecast to develop. Have made some slight PoP and weather adjustments to the grids. The models show gradual diminishing of cloudiness after midnight, so have added patchy fog mention mainly over the interior where the HRRR and local WRF are indicating some late night development. && .AVIATION... Local MVFR conditions will end over southern terminals, KVRB-KSUA late this evening as showers move offshore or dissipate. A slow moving frontal boundary usually points to some fog chances, which is what the HRRR and local WRF are starting to show. The GFS didn`t show much hint of this though. With much of the area having received rain wetting, light low level winds and gradual clearing of mid and high level clouds after midnight, will mention patchy fog for interior sections. The TAFs do not reflect this chance of fog yet, since it still looks to be patchy at this time. && .MARINE... Tonight-Mon...Frontal boundary is forecast to push southeast through most of the waters tonight then slow down in the far south on Monday. Post frontal winds look to be around 10 knots from the northwest overnight, then north on Monday at 10-15 knots in the north and 5-10 knots in the south. Seas should be 3-4 feet except up to 5 feet in the Gulf Stream. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lascody IMPACT WX....Combs
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
633 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated nw mid/upper level flow into the nrn Great Lakes beetween a trough from nrn Quebec through James Bay and northeast Ontario and a ridge through the Rockies. At the sfc, high pressure extended from James Bay to Lake Superior and nrn Minnesota resulting in nrly low through Upper Michigan. IR/VIS loops showed high clouds spreading over the region with also some cu development well inaldn from Lake Superior. Tonight, as the high gradually shifts to the se through Upper Michigan and to the east of the area overnight, favorable radiational cooling cntrl and east will allow temps to drop into the lower 30s. Increasing sw winds overnight west will keep temps in the upper 30s to around 40. Monday, sunshine, increasing WAA with sw winds and deeper mixing to around 750 mb will support temps into the upper 70s along with min RH values in the 20-25 percent range. The warm, dry conditions combined with winds gusting into the 15-20 mph range will result in another day of elevated wildfire risk over mainly the west half of Upper Michigan where the driest conditions have developed. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 Fire weather concerns will be alleviated somewhat on Tue as greater moisture moves in and a slight chance of mainly inland showers exists in the afternoon. Min RH values will be 30-40% over the interior W and 40-50% elsewhere. Winds will be light. After that, blended initialization handled chances of showers that exists through most of the rest of the forecast period well, so no changes were needed. Certainly moving into a wetter and cooler period, which will further alleviate fire concerns. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 633 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018 Mainly light winds can be expected through much of the week, generally below 20 kts, as the pressure gradient remains weak. Late in the week, a low pressure system may cross the Upper Great Lakes, bringing a chance of increased wind speeds, closer to the 20 to 25 kt range by Thursday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 Northwest flow aloft persists with water vapor and RAP imagery suggesting a channeled wave moving southeast across east central Kansas. A decent pressure gradient around 305 K along with ample mid/upper moisture sampled on the 12Z TOP sounding was helping support elevated shower activity through much of the day in southeast portions of the area, though dry low-level air measured on the same sounding suggests this will struggle to accumulate on the ground. Recent satellite imagery showing high-based cumulus field from south central Nebraska to west central Illinois in deep mixing behind a weak frontal boundary that has pushed south through east central Kansas. Will keep small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening with ML CAPE around 500 J/kg with potential for isolated gusty downburst winds being the main concern in steep low- level lapse rates and downdraft CAPE near 900 J/kg at 19Z. This activity should end shortly after sunset with cirrus to the west continue to spill east. Have kept lows near going levels with light east winds behind the front. Modest upper ridging builds east into the Plains Monday with weak mid-level warm air advection and continued cirrus aloft. Much weaker isentropic upglide and the WAA should keep precip potential below mentionable levels. High temperatures may be a degree or two cooler as the modest surface anticyclone passes to the east. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 An upper wave along the west coast today wave enters the northern and central Plains Tuesday with lee cyclone pushing into central Kansas during the afternoon and a modified cold front passing through in the night to early Wednesday periods. Continued mid-level warm air advection and a lack of strong low-level moisture return should keep some capping in place, but chance PoPs remain in order as these features pass, with an evening to overnight event most likely. Shear profiles also continue to look less than ideal with modest mid/upper level flow and some backing aloft. Upper flow becomes more zonal across the western and central states Thursday and Friday, though another weak cold front associated with a wave rotating through Ontario should settle into the area by Friday morning. Front should struggle to pass far into Kansas and sets the stage for several opportunities for convection especially across northern areas. Upper support increases into the weekend periods as a wave digs southeast into the central Rockies and swings into the central Plains. Will need to watch for any areas of greater severe weather threats as these periods approach, though neither shear nor instability look particularly impressive at this time. Temperatures should largely remain fairly steady until the front moves into the area, though could see outflow impact at least northern locations by Friday afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018 There is an area of high-based showers moving towards MHK in the next few hours. There is uncertain if these showers would get close to TOP/FOE. The conditions should remain VFR regardless. The winds veer to the southeast by the end of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Sanders