Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/07/18

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wakefield VA

 1056 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push offshore tonight through early Monday.
High pressure will build from the Great Lakes to New England
Monday and Tuesday as low pressure lingers off the Mid-Atlantic
coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1050 PM EDT Sunday

KAKQ radar showing numerous waves of convective showers in
association with frontal boundary sliding offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast this evening. HRRR and incoming 00z CAMs are
showing convective activity dropping off now through 06z, with
areas of shras as the surface low sets up along the SE VA/NC
coast, w/high pressure building to the NW across the Great
Lakes. Northerly flow develops and moisture thickens below
800mb, mainly over the ern half of the area. Any lingering pcpn
should become more stratiform (light rain or drizzle) late in
the overnight into Monday morning. Briefly clearing sky inland
will become partly to mostly cloudy once again late. Remaining
mostly cloudy to overcast across the ern half of the area. Early
morning lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday

Model trends continue to show surface low pressure lingering
off the coast Monday/Monday night and into Tuesday as high
pressure builds from the Great Lakes to New England. This setup
will result in NNE flow, which should continue through Tuesday.
The chc of rain will be rather low due to dry air aloft (and
throughout the layer above -10C). Ample moisture is progged per
the GFS and NAM in the 900-800mb layer. Expect mainly overcast
conditions with a gusty NNE wind along the coast Monday. A
little warmer, but still mostly cloudy and cool farther inland
as well. Highs Monday will average in the lower-mid 60s near the
coast (upper 50s for the MD coast) to the upper 60s/lower 70s
well inland. A 20- 30% PoP for mainly light rain is forecast
over the ern third of the area, but any QPF will be light (a few
hundredths at most). Lows Monday night/Tue am in the 50s.
Continued to trended the forecast a little more cloudy and cool
for Tuesday as well with a lingering 20- 30% chc of light rain
toward the coast. Highs Tuesday are very similar to Monday with
low/mid 60s along the coast (upper 50s for the MD coast), to the
upper 60s/low 70s farther inland.

The persistent pattern of onshore flow breaks down Tuesday
night and Wednesday as surface high pressure ridges in from the
N. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday night with lows in the
low/mid 50s. Warmer Wednesday with highs warming into the upper
70s to near 80F well inland, with low 70s closer to the coast,
and still mid/upper 60s at the immediate coast where a sea-
breeze may prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Sfc high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic moves offshore
Wed night-Thu AM. This will allow temperatures to warm into the
low-mid 80s inland/near 80 in coastal areas during the day on
Thursday, as winds turn back to the S/SW. Sfc low pressure
tracks through southeastern Canada on Thursday. The (weak)
trailing cold front associated with this system will approach
from the NW. This will set the stage for isolated- scattered
showers/t-storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Highest PoPs
(30-40%) still look to be over our northwestern counties. The
weak cold front is forecast to pass through the bulk of the CWA
by late Fri AM, but highs will still be between 79-84 on Friday.

Summer-like weather will return next weekend, with forecast
highs near 90 on both Saturday and Sunday. Slight chances for
showers/t- storms will accompany the very warm weather. There
are quite a few differences between the 12z GFS/ECMWF about the
timing/placement of the rain next weekend. Therefore, went no
higher than slight chc PoPs for now.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1050 PM EDT Sunday...

Showers decrease in areal coverage overnight, as surface low
pressure slides along the VA/NC coast overnight. Winds shifting
to the N after midnight into Mon morning, with deteriorating
conditions to IFR/MVFR between 06-12Z/Mon (PHF/SBY/ORF) as low
level winds shift around to the NNE. VFR conds at RIC eventually
drop into MVFR/IFR range late tonight into Monday morning.

Outlook: A breezy NNE wind expected along the SE VA/NE NC coast
on Mon, with MVFR/IFR cigs likely. Cigs will be a little higher
farther inland but likely in MVFR range at RIC. Low clouds and
at least a chance for drizzle/light rain will continue through
Tue morning. Winds subside but remain out of the NE on Wed, with
mainly dry wx and VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 PM EDT Sunday...

Low pressure off the Delmarva coast late this aftn, will move
away to the NE tonight, while a weak cold front crosses the
waters fm the west. Then, very late tonight thru Tue, winds will
shift/and remain fm the NE, as low pressure remains off the
east coast and high pressure will be over the Great Lakes
region. Thus, expect winds at the mouth of the Ches Bay and
Currituck sound and coastal waters to increase into SCA range
Mon.

This pattern results in a cool and rather breezy early week period
with not the best boating conditions. Models agree this pattern
continues for a while with rather high confidence that SCA`s will
continue thru Tue night along the coast. Expect NE winds between
15-25 kt with seas building to between 5-7 ft. Kept the rest of
the Ches Bay just below SCA levels for now, but still could be
SCA`s acrs farther north portions of the Bay and the Lower James
River.

Expect the NE winds to diminish by mid week, but the onshore flow
and swell from the departing low will likely keep SCA`s going for
elevated seas into Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...MPR/TMG




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 941 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

The CAMS through the 01 UTC HRRR continue to favor isolated to
scattered elevated rain showers and thunderstorms late
tonight/early Monday morning southwest, potentially propagating
into south central North Dakota and the James River Valley through
the remainder of the morning. Again, this is in association with
return flow as precipitable water climbs towards 1.0 inch, with
steepening mid level lapse rates, and a few weak impulses embedded
within the upper level ridge.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

A quiet evening and overnight is expected with return flow
commencing through the night. An isolated, elevated rain shower
or thunderstorm is possible across the southwest and south central
Monday morning as precipitable water climbs towards 1.0 inch,
with steepening mid level lapse rates, and a few weak impulses
embedded within the upper level ridge. This is signaled within
the CAMs through the 22 UTC HRRR, and also the 18 UTC GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

A developing lee side low pressure system tonight and Monday will
bring increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
across southwest North Dakota Monday morning, and scattered
thunderstorms across the western third of the state by Monday
afternoon. Southerly low level flow ahead of teh surface trough
will pull higher dewpoints into the northern plains as an
approaching upper trough closes off in a weak upper low over north
central South Dakota. Without any significant winds aloft and the
0-6 km wind shear fairly marginal the main thunderstorm threat
would likely be small hail and gusty surface winds late Monday
but more likely Monday night. Accepted the Superblend temperature
guidance for tonights low and Mondays highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

The extended forecast continues to look active for showers and
scattered thunderstorms, with the Monday night through Wednesday
period and the Thursday and Friday periods looking promising for
getting meaningful rainfall.

Monday night looks marginal for severe weather with gusty winds
and small hail the main threat.

A generally progressive weather pattern will bring additional
chances for showers Thursday and Friday with a positively tilted
longwave trough settling over the northern plains by the weekend
bringing significantly cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s
Thursday and Friday and in the 60s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are possible across
southwest North Dakota late tonight into early Monday morning,
moving into the south central and James River Valley through the
remainder of Monday morning. Additional scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms will develop across most of western and central
North Dakota late Monday afternoon and evening, and continue into
the night. A few thunderstorms could become severe across the
southwest and south central late Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...PA




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Brownsville TX

 630 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure remains in control with light and
variable winds becoming generally southeast on Monday under mostly
VFR ceilings. Upper level clouds will continue to move eastward
across the RGV overnight. As low level moisture recovers near
daybreak, patchy fog may form across portions of the lower valley.
Models are a bit more robust with moisture this evening than
current observations, so confidence remains low. Will keep TEMPO
MVFR visibilities for BRO, HRL and MFE at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night): Surface high pressure
continues to settle in over South Texas this afternoon. The high
center will wobble around the area over the next 24 hours, before
starting to drift NE Monday afternoon/evening. Thus light winds
will prevail, with some sea-breeze enhancement possible during the
afternoons. Winds finally veer back to SE Monday night. Aloft,
high clouds will stream by in the westerly flow at times until
tomorrow night when the flow backs to NW.

Dewpoints have already fallen to the 50s-low 60s F this afternoon
and will even be a touch lower Monday afternoon as very dry air just
above the surface mixes through the boundary layer.  Lows will be in
the low-mid 60s pretty much everywhere (except right along the
coast) both tonight and tomorrow, or a couple of degrees below
normal.  The main forecast challenge is possible fog formation late
tonight/early tomorrow morning.  Near-calm winds and relative
humidities approaching 100% would argue for its formation, as do
BUFKIT RAP forecast soundings. However, MOS guidance is downplaying,
and climatology does not favor thicker fog in early May.  Patchy,
shallow fog (such as observed this morning) may be the most likely
outcome.  Kept coverage inherited in the weather grid but adjusted
timing.

High temps Monday will be similar to today`s, with lots of 90s;
this is a couple degrees above normal. Weather looks great for
tomorrow`s Hurricane Awareness Tour stop in McAllen! Just remember
the sunscreen.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): 500mb ridge across the
southwest United States Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to
provide subsidence across south Texas through most of next week
especially Thursday through Saturday as a 500mb trough/low is
expected to develop across the western Gulf of Mexico. The upper
level feature across the western Gulf may provide some showers and
thunderstorms offshore the lower Texas coast Wed night through
Friday but not much in the way of rain chances if any are
expected across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands
through the week into the weekend. The global models are progging
the potential for some rain towards the end of the forecast period
but there are some timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF
on a 500mb trough developing and moving into the southern plains.
Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
but the better rain chances may not be until late Sunday or Monday
with the upper level feature. As far as temperatures...very warm
to hot temperatures are expected to prevail Tuesday through Sunday
and will go a few degrees warmer than the blends for max temps
through the forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Monday night):  As of 1:40pm CDT, Buoy 42020
reporting N winds of 8-10 knots with seas of 2 ft.  High pressure
nearby will keep winds at 10 knots of less, with onshore direction
developing Monday afternoon. Slight seas of 2 ft. or less
continue.

Tuesday through Friday...Light south winds will prevail across the
coastal waters Tuesday with surface high pressure across the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will move eastward
across the northeast Gulf Wednesday and the pressure gradient will
increase slightly across the lower Texas coast. Moderate southeast
to south winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

56




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 1048 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show an area
of low pressure moving into the eastern Great Lakes, while high
pressure is building southeast into the state. After skies
cleared this morning, rather high based cumulus popped with rising
temperatures by midday, with broken conditions developing north
and west of the Fox Valley. Looking upstream, conditions are quiet
over Minnesota and the Dakotas, with only scattered cu and cirrus
overhead. Therefore, forecast concerns mainly revolve around
temps and low humidities over the next 24 hours.

Tonight...The high pressure system will slide southeast across the
region. Scattered flattened cu will likely persist into the early
evening hours, while thin cirrus invades from the north. Neither
should have much of an effect on temperatures. Lows should fall
into the middle 30s over the north to the mid 40s over the
southern Fox Valley.

Monday...High pressure will shift to the central Great Lakes,
leaving northern WI in the northwest sector of the departing high.
This area is typically favorable in Spring for warm temperatures,
low humidity, and gusty winds. Though will have some high based cu
pop with heat of the day, temps should warm into the low to mid
70s away from Lake Michigan. Humidities will likely fall into the
low 20s over the northwoods, to the low 30s over parts of central
WI. Winds, however, look to fall shy of red flag warning criteria,
with sustained of 10 kts gusting to 15 kts. Will keep the elevated
fire weather conditions in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

Fire weather concerns on Tuesday and precipitation chances for the
rest of the extended period are the main forecast concerns.

A back door cold front will sag into northern WI on Tuesday, and
may bring a small chance of showers. Cloud bases will be high, so
any precipitation that reaches the ground should be very light.
Light southwest winds ahead of the front will continue to bring
mild air into the region, causing temperatures to rise into the
70s to around 80 inland, but only 60s near Lake Michigan. Deep
mixing through 750-700 mb will mix enough dry air aloft down to
the surface to drop dew points into the lower to middle 40s. This
means that relative humidity may drop into the 25 to 35 percent
range in the sandy soil areas, with the lowest readings over the
far north. Elevated fire weather conditions may continue, though
winds will light, with speeds in the 5 to 10 mph range.

The front is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front
Tuesday night, so a chance of showers will persist over our
northwest counties. Rain chances will increase Wednesday into
Wednesday night as a low pressure system and associated upper
level trough move through. Given precipitable water values
increasing to 1.0 to 1.25 inches and the amplitude of the upper
trough, we should see moderate rainfall with this system.

Forecast confidence remains low for the rest of the forecast
period due to differences among the medium-range models. A strong
frontal boundary will set up just south of the region, with
periods of moderate to strong overunning occurring at times.
The GFS brings two significant rounds of moderate to heavy
precipitation through the forecast area, on Thursday night/Friday,
and Saturday/Saturday night. The Canadian is somewhat similar,
though farther south with the first round. The ECMWF keeps most of
the significant rain to our south from Friday through Saturday
night. Given the uncertainty, will stick with the blended model
pops, which focus on Saturday afternoon and evening as the most
likely period for significant rain. More definition of the timing
and rainfall amounts will be made during this period as models
converge on a solution. The bottom line is that a round or two of
significant rainfall is possible later in the week, which could
cause flooding concerns to flare up again.

Temperatures will start off well above normal, but drop to much
below normal by Friday and Saturday. Cannot rule out a rain/snow
mix over far northern WI late Thursday night and Friday night.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

VFR conditions expected through at least Tuesday AM. A period of
high clouds tonight with high based cumulus clouds at times
Monday, particularly during the afternoon. Surface winds become
southerly Monday morning as high pressure moves east of area.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......JKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

 1154 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

Band of showers from early has all but fallen apart and dissipated
as expected, with another batch of showers across central Kentucky
set to spread into the Cumberland Plateau region in the next
several hours. Updated pop and weather grids to focus the pops
more in our southwestern areas through the remainder of the night,
before this activity exits to the south prior to daybreak. Also
freshened up the hourly temperatures and dewpoints. Starting to
see a few pockets of dense fog developing where we have developed
some holes in the cloud cover. May need to add in some dense fog
if the trends continue. However, want to see how cloud cover
behaves over the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 824 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

Band of showers/isolated storms, continues to weaken as it pushes
into our area as expected. Saw some nice outflow boundaries
produce some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. However, with the updrafts
showing a significant weakening trend, wind gusts potential is
quickly decreasing. The forward momentum of the line is also
slowing down due to the weakening updrafts. This trend will
continue over the next hour or so and we can likely pull thunder
from the forecast fairly soon. Still think we may contend with
some isolated shower activity overnight as this boundary slows
down or stalls over the area.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

Line of showers/storms continues to move across central Kentucky
and will be affecting our western zones in the next hour. Given
the solid nature of the line and plenty of instability still in
place, opted to raise pops to categorical for most of our western
half of the area. The activity will weaken as it moves east and
fall apart as it outruns the better instability. Thus, trailed off
the pops to the east this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

19z sfc analysis shows a cold front inbound to the northwest. A
broken line of showers and thunderstorms has developed with this.
Otherwise, returning sunshine and dry conditions made for a
pleasant afternoon for most of eastern Kentucky - aside from
lingering clouds and a shower in far eastern Pike County. The
returning sunshine helped temperatures climb into the low to mid
70s most places - though 60s are still holding on in the far east.
Dewpoints, meanwhile, are generally in the low to mid 50s across
the area with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and occasional gusts
to 15 mph.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a reinforcing of the
general trough over the eastern Ohio Valley and Appalachians as
energy seeps into the region on northwest flow at mid levels. The
main batch of this passes through eastern Kentucky by 12z Monday
with lesser bits to follow even as the upper trough starts to
close off to the east Monday night. Given the good model
agreement will favor a blended solution with a heavy lean on the
HRRR and Nam12 for near term weather details.

Sensible weather will feature a quick arrival of another round of
showers and storms for most of the area this evening. Though, this
batch will be fading as it enters eastern Kentucky and mostly dry
up shortly after midnight with just a small chance for showers
lingering in the southeast through dawn. CAA and low clouds follow
keeping the temperatures fairly uniform varying a bit from
northwest to southeast. For Monday a few showers may pop up in the
far southeast as the upper low consolidates to our southeast and
sfc high pressure only partially dries us out from the northwest.
These small shower chances remain in the east into Monday along
with stuck low clouds preventing much of a terrain difference for
lows that night.

Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for
all the grids through Tuesday morning. Only made some point
adjustments to temperatures during the period given the moist and
cloudy environment. As for PoPs, ended up going higher this
evening and through the night with the front - continued above
guidance in the far east for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

Overall the models are in fairly good agreement with the main
features that will affect our weather from early week into next
weekend. At the beginning of the period a mid level trough will be
over the Appalachians with a weak inverted trough at the surface.
Another mid and upper level trough with an associated surface low
will be over the northern plains. The pattern will be fairly
progressive, with each trough moving east through the mean flow. By
next weekend another mid/upper level low will emerge from the
Rockies into the Plains.

For sensible weather the general pattern will result in generally
above normal temperatures, with the warmest temperatures occurring
next weekend with readings well into the 80s. The trough over the
Appalachians will bring a chance of showers for the southeast on
Tuesday. Wednesday should be dry, then the approach of the next mid
level trough and associated surface front will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances to the area from Wednesday night into Thursday.
As the overall flow becomes more zonal by Friday the front will
stall somewhere in the Ohio Valley before lifting back north by next
weekend. As a result shower and thunderstorm chances will linger
into Friday night. While most of next weekend looks dry and very
warm with a front well to our north, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

Band of showers and storms had been producing some gusty winds
near KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM. However, this line is weakening
quickly, with gust potential quickly decreasing. We could see some
brief reductions in visibility with any of the rain showers as
this line marches east, but ceilings should remain somewhat
elevated due to the drier surface layer. Thus, aviation concern
may be minimal through the first chunk of the night. However, some
low ceilings or fog could form late tonight, so will have to keep
an eye on that potential.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...KAS




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

 913 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor satellite trends this evening indicate
a subtle mid-level shortwave trough embedded within a longwave
upper level trough over the Eastern United States, placing the
Mid-South within northwest flow aloft. Regional WSR-88D radar
trends indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms stretching
from East Central Missouri to Southeast Missouri/Missouri Bootheel
and weakening showers and thunderstorms over Middle Tennessee and
Southeast Arkansas. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-
South are in the 60s to middle 70s.

Latest 00Z WRF and HRRR indicates the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to drop into the Mid-South for the remainder of the
night, especially along the Mississippi River and perhaps across
portions of West Tennessee.

Updated grids will be available shortly.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018/

UPDATE...
Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to pop up across Northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this afternoon. Expect more
development as we progress into the late afternoon and evening
hours as a weak cold front pushes into the region. Put 40/50 POPS
along and west of the Mississippi River this evening, but POPS may
need to be increased further if some of the short term CAM models
are correct. Some storms may become severe producing large hail.

Expect the convection to become more isolated after midnight due
to the loss of daytime heating thus continued 20 POPS for the
overnight hours for areas along and south of I-40.

Drier air will begin to filter into the area behind the front on
Monday, but don`t expect much change in regards to temperatures.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Can`t rule out isolated
showers and thunderstorms occurring along a corridor from
Clarksdale to Tupelo as the front will still be in the vicinity.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will keep the weather tranquil
Monday Night into Tuesday. With drier air in place, expect
temperatures to be cool at night and warm during the day. Lows
will drop into the 50s while highs stay in the lower to mid 80s.

Another upper trof will move into region late Tuesday Night
through Thursday and will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area. At this point, timing is too hard
to pinpoint on where and when the best chances for convection will
occur.

The upper flow will become more zonal by Friday with ridging
occurring by the weekend. This pattern looks very summer like thus
it could be the first hot and humid weekend of 2018. Highs will
reach into the upper 80s across much of the CWA and would not be
surprised to see a few locations reach 90 degrees sometime next
weekend. Rain free conditions can be expected Friday into next
weekend.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

A few thunderstorms will be possible this evening, mainly
along/north of I-40. Convection will be weakening as it moves
through the area by late evening with generally dry conditions
anticipated by 08z. Primarily VFR conditions are expected
thereafter, although some patchy fog is possible around sunrise
(mainly at KMKL and KTUP). Otherwise, expect north winds of 5-9
kts on Monday with a high based afternoon Cu field.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Melbourne FL

 925 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018

.UPDATE...

Tonight...Cool front was just north of the local area at 00z and is
progged to slide slowly down the peninsula to around Lake Okeechobee
towards sunrise.  Remnants of daytime heating convection were over
southern sections and will be transitioning offshore or dissipating
by around midnight.  Low level winds ahead of the front are light,
so with nighttime stability and a lack of frontal convergence, no
additional showers are forecast to develop.  Have made some slight
PoP
and weather adjustments to the grids.

The models show gradual diminishing of cloudiness after midnight,
so have added patchy fog mention mainly over the interior where the
HRRR and local WRF are indicating some late night development.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local MVFR conditions will end over southern terminals, KVRB-KSUA
late this evening as showers move offshore or dissipate.  A slow
moving frontal boundary usually points to some fog chances, which is
what the HRRR and local WRF are starting to show.  The GFS didn`t
show much hint of this though.  With much of the area having
received rain wetting, light low level winds and gradual clearing of
mid and high level clouds after midnight, will mention patchy fog
for interior sections.  The TAFs do not reflect this chance of fog
yet, since it still looks to be patchy at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Mon...Frontal boundary is forecast to push southeast through
most of the waters tonight then slow down in the far south on
Monday.  Post frontal winds look to be around 10 knots from the
northwest overnight, then north on Monday at 10-15 knots in the
north and 5-10 knots in the south. Seas should be 3-4 feet except up
to 5 feet in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
IMPACT WX....Combs




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 633 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated nw mid/upper level flow into
the nrn Great Lakes beetween a trough from nrn Quebec through James
Bay and northeast Ontario and a ridge through the Rockies. At the
sfc, high pressure extended from James Bay to Lake Superior and
nrn Minnesota resulting in nrly low through Upper Michigan. IR/VIS
loops showed high clouds spreading over the region with also some
cu development well inaldn from Lake Superior.

Tonight, as the high gradually shifts to the se through Upper
Michigan and to the east of the area overnight, favorable
radiational cooling cntrl and east will allow temps to drop into the
lower 30s. Increasing sw winds overnight west will keep temps in the
upper 30s to around 40.

Monday, sunshine, increasing WAA with sw winds and deeper mixing to
around 750 mb will support temps into the upper 70s along with min
RH values in the 20-25 percent range. The warm, dry conditions
combined with winds gusting into the 15-20 mph range will result in
another day of elevated wildfire risk over mainly the west half of
Upper Michigan where the driest conditions have developed.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

Fire weather concerns will be alleviated somewhat on Tue as greater
moisture moves in and a slight chance of mainly inland showers
exists in the afternoon. Min RH values will be 30-40% over the
interior W and 40-50% elsewhere. Winds will be light.

After that, blended initialization handled chances of showers that
exists through most of the rest of the forecast period well, so no
changes were needed. Certainly moving into a wetter and cooler
period, which will further alleviate fire concerns.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 633 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2018

Mainly light winds can be expected through much of the week,
generally below 20 kts, as the pressure gradient remains weak. Late
in the week, a low pressure system may cross the Upper Great Lakes,
bringing a chance of increased wind speeds, closer to the 20 to 25
kt range by Thursday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



...Update to aviation forecast discussion...



 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

Northwest flow aloft persists with water vapor and RAP imagery
suggesting a channeled wave moving southeast across east central
Kansas. A decent pressure gradient around 305 K along with ample
mid/upper moisture sampled on the 12Z TOP sounding was helping
support elevated shower activity through much of the day in
southeast portions of the area, though dry low-level air measured on
the same sounding suggests this will struggle to accumulate on the
ground. Recent satellite imagery showing high-based cumulus field
from south central Nebraska to west central Illinois in deep mixing
behind a weak frontal boundary that has pushed south through east
central Kansas.

Will keep small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon into early
this evening with ML CAPE around 500 J/kg with potential for
isolated gusty downburst winds being the main concern in steep low-
level lapse rates and downdraft CAPE near 900 J/kg at 19Z. This
activity should end shortly after sunset with cirrus to the west
continue to spill east. Have kept lows near going levels with light
east winds behind the front.

Modest upper ridging builds east into the Plains Monday with weak
mid-level warm air advection and continued cirrus aloft. Much weaker
isentropic upglide and the WAA should keep precip potential below
mentionable levels. High temperatures may be a degree or two cooler
as the modest surface anticyclone passes to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

An upper wave along the west coast today wave enters the northern
and central Plains Tuesday with lee cyclone pushing into central
Kansas during the afternoon and a modified cold front passing
through in the night to early Wednesday periods. Continued mid-level
warm air advection and a lack of strong low-level moisture return
should keep some capping in place, but chance PoPs remain in order
as these features pass, with an evening to overnight event most
likely. Shear profiles also continue to look less than ideal with
modest mid/upper level flow and some backing aloft.

Upper flow becomes more zonal across the western and central states
Thursday and Friday, though another weak cold front associated with
a wave rotating through Ontario should settle into the area by
Friday morning. Front should struggle to pass far into Kansas and
sets the stage for several opportunities for convection especially
across northern areas. Upper support increases into the weekend
periods as a wave digs southeast into the central Rockies and swings
into the central Plains. Will need to watch for any areas of greater
severe weather threats as these periods approach, though neither
shear nor instability look particularly impressive at this time.

Temperatures should largely remain fairly steady until the front
moves into the area, though could see outflow impact at least
northern locations by Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

There is an area of high-based showers moving towards MHK in the
next few hours. There is uncertain if these showers would get
close to TOP/FOE. The conditions should remain VFR regardless.
The winds veer to the southeast by the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders