Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/04/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish
this evening, and it will remain cloudy and mild overnight.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday,
with warm temperatures continuing. A cold front will bring dry
weather for Saturday with temperatures closer to normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1028 PM EDT...Our region remains situated within a warm
sector, with a subtle frontal boundary located northwest of the
region across the eastern Great Lakes northeast into the St.
Lawrence Valley. The proximity of this front is allowing for a
concentrated areas of showers over the western and central
Adirondacks, as seen in the latest MRMS imagery. Meanwhile, some
spotty showers are still ongoing across the remainder of the
area, although these are fairly brief and short-lived.
SPC mesoanalysis shows instability has waned over the region, as
a result of the loss of daytime heating. Will not include any
more thunder through the remainder of the overnight hours. Based
on the latest 3km HRRR and 00z NAM, the frontal boundary located
northwest of area may start to drift southeast and start to
weaken. Showers over the Adirondacks will start to move
southeast towards the Glens Falls-Saratoga Region and into
southern Vermont towards midnight, but should start to dissipate
as the front starts to become rather diffuse. Afterward, any
showers will be fairly spotty for the remainder of the overnight
hours with little organization expected.
As a result, most areas should start fairly quiet overnight,
although it will remain fairly cloudy. Will keep POPS fairly
low, except for northern areas over the next few hours. With
the clouds around, it will continue to be mild, with lows
tonight in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Deamplifying midlevel trough will track from the western Great
Lakes to northern New England Friday into Friday night, with the
attendant surface low tracking from northern Michigan to
Maritime Canada. The system`s warm front will push through the
local forecast area Friday morning, possibly accompanied by a
few showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley. This will put us
in the warm sector Friday, with forcing for ascent gradually
increasing with weak height falls ahead of the approaching
trough. The forcing will be greatest from the Catskills, Capital
District, and southern Vermont north and west, where likely PoPs
are in place for the afternoon and evening. Similar to today, a
strong deep-layer wind field will be in place with instability
being the limiting factor. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to
be weak, and given dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s (model
guidance showing higher values likely overdone again given the
lack of foliage), seems MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg will
again be possible. Once again wind is expected to be the main
threat given the strong deep-layer wind field, meager
instability, and high LCLs. Though the best synoptic-scale
forcing for ascent will not arrive until Friday night with the
approach of the trough axis/cold front, weak height
falls/perhaps a prefrontal trough may be enough to promote
convective activity. SPC marginal risk looks good. It should be
a bit breezy with a strong pressure gradient in the warm sector,
with some gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.
Convective threat should diminish 00-06Z as the cold front
tracks through the area. Some gusty winds possible in the wake
of the front especially north of the Capital District. High
pressure expands into the region late Friday night into
Saturday, with a much drier and more seasonable airmass taking
hold. Highs Saturday expected to be some 10F cooler than Friday
with plenty of sunshine expected. Mainly clear Saturday night,
although clouds may increase from the south late ahead of a
trough moving into the Ohio Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period begins with improving conditions and ends with
increasing cloudiness, but with a long duration of dry, seasonable
conditions in between. Low pressure over the Delmarva Peninsula
Sunday morning will initially spread a chance of rain across our
forecast area, but will tend to be quickly suppressed to the south
and east as the passage of a weakening cold front from southeastern
Ontario results in a change in our flow pattern. Thus, things
quickly improve by Sunday night, and conditions will be dry and
pleasant, with plentiful sunshine through Thursday under the
influence of sprawling high pressure.
The passage of a shallow and weakening cold front on Wednesday will
do little more than to keep the heat from building too much. There
probably won`t even be any clouds associated with it. High pressure
ridging tries to remain in place down the eastern seaboard as a low
pressure area begins its approach from the middle of the country.
High cloudiness starts its return ahead of it on Thursday.
Some of the best weather in recent memory can be expected...with
high temperatures from the upper 50s in the high peaks to the upper
60s down the Hudson Valley on Sunday, from around 50 in the high
peaks to the mid 60s in the valleys on Monday, and the upper 50s in
the high peaks to the lower 70s in the valleys Tuesday through
Thursday.
Lows will be in the mid 50s in the Adirondacks Sunday night, where
precipitation could end as snow or a mix, to the mid 40s in the
Hudson Valley and southern zones. The other mountain regions
will be down into mostly the upper 30s. Monday night will be
slightly cooler, but all locations should stay above freezing
under mostly clear skies. Beyond that point, low readings will
moderate somewhat under a light southerly flow, which will only
slowly increase humidities progressing through mid-week. Lows
Wednesday night will be in mostly the upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Threat for widespread showers/thunderstorms has ended, as area
of widespread showers has now moved south/east of the area.
Still may be a few lingering light rain showers over next few
hours, but coverage is fairly isolated, so will only address
with a VCSH for now and allow for continued VFR conditions. The
only site that saw any appreciable rainfall today was KPOU, so
cannot totally rule out some mist/fog that could develop there
late in the overnight if any breaks in the clouds occur,
otherwise, dry conditions should prevent any fog for the other
sites, with VFR conditions expected overnight thanks to bkn-ovc
cigs at 4-6 kft. Winds will be fairly light and variable
overnight.
During the day on Friday, VFR conditions look to be in place for
most of the day. There could be some more isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening once
again. For now, will just go with a VCSH, although brief
reductions due to SHRA/TSRA will be possible for all sites.
Southerly winds will increase to 5-10 kts with a few higher
gusts for during the day on Friday for all sites.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the region this
afternoon into this evening, diminishing tonight. Additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday,
although the whole day won`t be a washout. Gusty southwest winds
to 25 to 35 mph are possible Friday afternoon along with warm
temperatures in the 70s and 80s. RH values will fall into the 45
to 55 percent range.
A drier airmass will take hold Saturday, with plenty of sunshine
and westerly winds gusting to near 20 mph. RH values will fall
into the 35 to 45 percent range with high temperatures in the
60s and low 70s. Sunday will be slightly cooler with a chance of
showers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely through
Friday. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any
storms, but widespread hydro issues are not anticipated. Basin-
average rainfall in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range is expected.
Current forecasts have Hinckley Dam approaching minor flood
stage late Friday night or Saturday morning.
Any remaining snow will continue to melt across the mountains.
Some of the reservoirs will see steady or slightly rising water
levels due to the snow melt and some rainfall associated with
showers and thunderstorms.
Drier weather should return over the weekend, with temperatures
cooling to more seasonable levels.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Thompson
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Thompson
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...Thompson/JVM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
752 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to prevail over the region through
Friday. It will be dry and warm. A frontal system will move
into the area over the weekend bringing a chance of showers and
a slight chance of thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Dry ridging both at the surface and aloft will continue to
dominate through tonight. Satellite imagery this evening shows
some scattered high clouds, but expect mostly clear skies
overnight. Patchy fog and/or stratus development will be
possibly late tonight and early Friday morning due to a slight
increase in low-level moisture in the southerly flow coupled
with nocturnal cooling, particularly in the southeastern portion
of the area where moisture will be slightly deeper. However, a
20 knot low- level jet supports more of a stratus threat. The
HRRR does not show any fog or stratus developing. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Both the surface and upper ridge will remain strong enough
through Saturday to keep conditions dry across the forecast
area. Temperatures will continue to be above normal.
For Friday, mostly sunny skies. Expect only a few cirrus clouds
and possibly some afternoon cumulus. With the ridge aloft and at
the surface still in place, afternoon highs remain well above
normal with readings in the upper 80s to around 90. Although
some moisture may begin returning at low-levels, strong mid-level
capping will keep the area dry.
Friday night, Continued dry with partly cloud skies expected.
Can not rule out the return of some patchy low-level stratus/fog
towards morning due to the increasing low-level moisture below
the inversion. Lows overnight will be around 60 degrees.
Saturday, A cold front will be west of the area and slowly
pushing eastward during the day. Both the surface and upper ridging
will begin trying to break down on Saturday as the front pushes
towards the region. However the ridge should still be strong
enough through the majority of the day to keep the low-level
capping inversion in place. Expecting dry conditions with an
increase in afternoon cumulus. Highs from the mid to upper 80s.
By Saturday night, the cold front will be in the central
Appalachians, with a surface low moving along it. Models try to
bring some rainfall into the western portions of SC during the
night. Have generally gone with slight chance across the western
counties through the night, with central and eastern portions of
the cwa mostly dry overnight. Overnight temperatures remain mild
due to warm advection ahead of the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lower confidence in the longer term due to models diverging in
regards to the speed/timing of the next shortwave moving in
behind the cold front for early next week.
Isolated to scattered shower/storms will remain possible on
Sunday in association with the cold front. Another shortwave
trough will push through the region into Tuesday, and this
should keep slight chance pops across the cwa until that pushes
east by Tuesday Night. Dry weather expected again by Wednesday.
Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal during the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We have high confidence in VFR conditions through 06z. Fog or
stratus could develop mainly at AGS and OGB 07z-12z.
High pressure will extend into the forecast area through Friday.
South to southeast winds expected this evening 5 to 10 knots
associated with the seabreeze front pushing well inland. Winds
should diminish to near calm during the early morning hours. Some
increase in low-level moisture in the southerly flow combined with
nocturnal cooling should aid the development of stratus or fog late
tonight. A 15-to 20-knot low-level jet may favor more of a stratus
threat. The threat will be greatest from OGB to AGS on southeast to
the coast and have included a period of IFR conditions at AGS and
OGB. The guidance was less consistent farther northwest and we
maintained VFR conditions at CAE/CUB/DNL. VFR should return to all
sites around 13z with winds becoming south to southwest 5 to 10
knots.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Increasing low-level moisture expected to provide the chance for
restrictions in fog or stratus during the early morning hours
Saturday. There is a chance of showers or possibly thunderstorms
with associated restrictions Sunday through Monday as a slow moving
frontal boundary crosses the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
654 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
The primary concern remains severe weather and heavy rain into
the evening hours. Elevated convection appears to be expanding
across northeast NE ahead of the approaching upper level low.
There is a pronounced elongated PV trough from NM into NE with one
short wave of note over far southwest NE and another driving this
convection over northeast NE. This deep, phased thermodynamic and
kinematic forcing will phase into a convective deformation zone
producing fairly widespread moderate to heavy rains over northern
Iowa, which is farther north than previously anticipated. The
heavy rain parameters are not extreme, but the extended period of
precip with low static stabilities will result in widespread 1-2
inch rains with a Flood Watch posted for expected rises along the
Cedar River at Cedar Falls. No Flash Flood Watch at the moment due
to rates not getting too crazy, but Flash Flood Guidance there is
fairly low due to recent rains and snow melt.
Farther south, severe weather will be the primary concern. 19Z
surface analysis notes the surface low near Manhattan KS with
objective analysis noting decent pressure falls into IA and warm
front just south of Des Moines. Discrete convection has recently
developed just ahead of the triple point and is expected to move
into southwest IA over the next several hours. Most convection
allowing models /CAMs/ are similar with this progression bringing
a broken line of discrete convection across southern Iowa during
the early evening hours. There will certainly be a window for
severe potential with extreme deep shear values resulting in large
hail and wind potential, and mid level lapse rates and
DCAPE/delta theta-e values all increase respectively. The tornado
window is not great or long lasting, but forecast soundings and
RAP plan views suggest better low level kinematics ahead of the
triple point in terms of ESRH and 0-1km shear and well as lower
LCLs due to lingering fog and stratus. Thus the tornado threat in
the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely better in our
northern portions and other parts of southern Iowa.
CAMs suggest the broken line will exit our forecast area by +/-
03z but the deformation zone precip may linger through midnight.
Tomorrow will provide a welcome relief to our recent active
weather with plenty of sunshine and seasonal temperatures as
strong subsidence and drying follow this system.
.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Thursday/
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
The main concern over the extended period was focused temperatures
and low chances of storms Saturday into Saturday night. Leaned
toward a blend of the GFS/ECMWF throughout the extended period as
models remain in good agreement.
Northwest flow aloft becomes the dominant weather feature over the
weekend into early next week before a strong 500mb shortwave
pushes across the region by Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a
weak cold front to push across the state Saturday night and will
spawn some convection late in the afternoon over northern Iowa and
then further south during the evening hours. Low potential for
any widespread severe threat as the better instability is further
south and the better forcing (albeit weak) remains in the north
late Saturday afternoon with the front. Certainly cannot rule out
an isolated hail threat, but any widespread coverage of severe
storms is unlikely. With the front slightly slower to move across
the by Saturday evening, nudged up maximum temperatures a little
on Saturday.
Cooler temperatures back into the state by Sunday as a surface
high pressure builds into the region through Monday. Dry and
mild temperatures likely through the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Main concern is convection with strong winds and lower cigs/vsby.
Looks like the main area will be east of KDSM by 05-06z and KOTM
by 06-08z. Back edge and lobe of rainfall may affect KFOD through
06z-08z as well as KMCW/KALO through 09-10z. Rain and -TSRA/+TSRA
at times through 05z with -SHRA/-TSRA remainder of convection.
Conditions quiet down aft 12-14z most areas with NW flow and VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period. /rev
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...REV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
902 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
.UPDATE...
While the first batch of rainfall has completely exited the
forecast area to the east, the next round is beginning to take
shape far to our southwest. Evening satellite imagery depicts a
wave of ascent overspreading much of southwestern Texas and
northern Mexico where new convection is initiating. A corridor of
steep mid-level lapse rates exists from this activity
northeastward through Central and northeastern Texas. Continued
ascent and southwesterly steering flow should usher this activity
into the forecast area late tonight or early Friday morning,
likely after 5am. Prior to the arrival of this eventual convective
cluster, only isolated showers or perhaps a rumble of thunder or
two can be expected across our Central Texas counties. Latest RAP
soundings and mesoanalysis indicate up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should
be available across much of Central Texas along with 50+ kts of
bulk shear. As a result, when more robust storms do arrive, they
could pose a risk for severe hail and possibly a more isolated
wind threat. Locations most at risk for a stronger storm from this
activity would be locales near Temple/Killeen/Waco and points
eastward through the early morning hours.
Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front will be approaching the Red
River just prior to daybreak. This front should be capable of
generating a second area of convection near or just south of the
Red River. High-res guidance is anticipating an increase to
1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE immediately along the frontal zone which
would be supportive of elevated hail storms as convection becomes
undercut by the boundary. Areas most at risk from this scenario
would be roughly from Decatur to Paris and points northward.
Later in the morning, am expecting the potential for strong or
severe storms to decease as a fairly broad rain shield expands
over much of the region. It will be a soggy Friday for a good
portion of the forecast area with precip tapering off from
northwest to southeast in the evening/overnight hours.
-Stalley
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 659 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/
/00z TAFs/
Convection has cleared all TAF sites to the east this evening,
and VFR conditions are expected through midnight. After midnight,
a return of MVFR stratus is likely, initially at or above 2 kft,
but likely falling below a few hours later. Overnight, another
round of convection is expected to develop across the Big Bend
region through the Texas Hill Country which will move
northeastward into North and Central Texas by daybreak. In
addition, a cold front will be pushing southward towards the Red
River which should be capable of initiating its own convection.
These two areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to cause
numerous impacts to aviation through much of Friday morning, and
have chosen to include VCTS/TSRA mentions throughout the morning
hours with this TAF issuance. In addition, the cold front will
bring a wind shift to the northwest, although wind speeds are
expected to remain fairly light at 10 kts or less (not including
stronger thunderstorm wind gusts, of course).
After the main waves of convection shift eastward Friday
afternoon, lingering lighter precipitation is likely to continue
in their wake. This may result in prolonged reduced visibilities,
but deep convection and TSRA potential should be waning during
this time. Rain is expected to clear all TAF sites by Friday
evening, and VFR conditions should then prevail. Winds will
remain light out of the north through the remainder of the period.
-Stalley
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 342 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/
The line of thunderstorms that invaded North Texas during the
early morning hours remains intact, but its intensity has
diminished this afternoon as it has become increasingly separated
from the forcing that initiated it. Lapse rates aloft are still
more than adequate for thunder, but from Corsicana northeastward,
the boundary layer parcels being ingested have less than 1000J/kg
in convective available potential energy. And with a generally
weak surface wind field downstream, the inflow has been
insufficient to spur any uptick in updraft intensity. While there
remains some 25-30kt winds in the 925-850mb layer, this flow is
nearly parallel to the line, and only the cells on the southern
end of the line are benefiting from this moisture flux. In
addition, the air downstream of these southern cells now exceeds
1500J/kg MLCAPE, and the potential for an isolated strong/severe
storm will continue through sunset. Though well blanketed by
clouds, the untapped air features temperatures in the 80s with
dew points in the 70s.
The mid-level flow has diminished somewhat, but more importantly,
it too is nearly parallel to the linear convective complex, which
is contributing to its slow progress this afternoon. With training
prolonging heavy rain in some locations, flooding issues may
arise. But as the surface layer stabilizes around sunset, the line
will likely dissipate, and any significant flooding concerns are
not anticipated. Showers could redevelop this evening behind the
ongoing activity, but the atmosphere appears well worked over, and
for much of North and Central Texas, the evening should be a lull
in activity. However, another impulse embedded in southwest flow
will emerge from Mexico this evening, and showers and storms
should rapidly develop across the Edwards Plateau during the early
morning hours Friday, spreading into our area from the southwest
during the predawn hours. The convective mode will be dominated by
showers, and the embedded elevated thunderstorms should not pose a
severe threat early Friday morning.
25
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 342 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/
/Friday through Thursday/
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in progress across
much of Central and North Texas during the early morning hours on
Friday as the large upper trough over the western U.S. finally
begins to move eastward. A surface cold front currently across
western Kansas will slide southward overnight and should be in
North Texas by Friday morning. The region remains entrenched
within a deep warm moist airmass and as stronger forcing for
ascent spreads over North Texas late tonight into Friday, numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. There will be
some instability available, but lapse rates are weak in the moist
airmass, so outside of a limited wind threat, lightning and
locally heavy rainfall appear to be the main threats. Showers and
thunderstorms will gradually spread eastward and out of the area
late in the day on Friday as the best forcing with the upper
trough moves east. All but our far southeast counties should be
rain free by Friday evening and even these areas will dry out
through the late evening.
Mid level ridging will be quick to build into the Southern Plains
over the weekend with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s on
Saturday and upper 80s on Sunday. The pattern should remain rather
quiet through much of next week with the main storm track well
removed from North Texas. We will have to watch for some potential
northwest flow thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday, but for now we`ll
keep the forecast dry. Temperatures should stay 5-10 degrees above
normal through next week.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 72 58 81 59 / 40 80 20 5 0
Waco 69 71 57 80 57 / 70 90 30 10 0
Paris 68 72 57 79 56 / 20 70 20 10 0
Denton 66 72 55 81 56 / 40 70 10 5 0
McKinney 67 72 56 80 57 / 40 70 10 5 0
Dallas 69 73 60 82 60 / 40 80 20 5 0
Terrell 68 72 57 81 56 / 40 80 20 5 0
Corsicana 69 73 58 78 57 / 40 80 30 10 0
Temple 69 73 58 80 57 / 70 90 30 10 0
Mineral Wells 65 73 54 82 54 / 50 70 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
26/82
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Updated the forecast this evening to increase wind speeds/gusts
and used CONSShort as it is doing well at initiation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Today, we`ve seen a band of thunderstorms develop north of the
surface low across the northern half of the forecast area. Skies
have been mostly overcast, but there is some clearing in northern
Kansas and far southern Nebraska. This will continue a marginal
risk for severe storms, mainly in the vicinity of the surface low
and stalled front. Latest HRRR is only developing a few isolated
storms in this area though. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, there is a chance for isolated landspout tornadoes,
but SPC mesonalysis indicates the best combination of surface
vorticity and low-level instability will strech from Beloit, KS up
to Falls City, NE...largely outside of our forecast area. While
can`t completely rule out a brief landspout, main threat will be
hail and brief downpours.
Later this evening, instability will begin to wane as the upper
low continues eastward. Therefore only a few rain showers are
expected across central Nebraska after 9pm. These showers will end
overnight and skies will start to clear by morning.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Increased ridging aloft will lead to a warm and pleasant weekend
across the area. Highs on Friday expected to be in the upper 70s,
and Saturday will be even warmer with highs in the 80s.
A subtle shortwave is forecasted to move through the area
Saturday night through Sunday. This could bring us a chance for
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but the liklihood for
significant rain appears minimal. The passage of a front should
keep temperatures on Sunday from rising out of the 70s.
Seasonal conditions are expected to continue into early next week
with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s each day. A bit more well-
defined system is forecast to move through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing us a better chance for rain and thunderstorms
than on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Wind gusts should gradually decrease this evening as will any
precipitation chances with VFR conditions eventually returning
this evening to early overnight from west to east.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1020 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
evening and tonight as a warm front lifts through the area. A few
of these storms could become strong or even severe, producing
damaging wind gusts to 50 mph or hail to 1 inch in diameter. Gusty
winds will develop with the passage of a cold front tomorrow, with
the area experiencing 35-45 mph wind gusts develop in the mid-
morning and lasting into the early evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Warm front convection has been rather underwhelming this evening
with little instability available. Current MUCAPES from the SPC
meso analysis page are only about 250 J/KG or less, and latest
RAP progs show similar low values through the rest of the night.
The svr wx and hvy rain threat now appear extremely low and will
update the Hazardous Wx Outlook. Will also have pops tapering off
to low chance south of the band of showers and isolated tstms now
lifting through. No change to tomorrow`s wind advisory.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Short term concerns first center around potential and strength for
convection this evening through tonight, and then for strong winds
to develop over the area tomorrow.
For tonight, warm front will lift northward into Lower Michigan
this evening (after 7PM) as upper low over the plains opens and
lifts towards the Great Lakes. Strong lift should exist this
evening and into tonight as frontal forcing gets a boost from mid-
level PVA and right entrance region of upper jet. Expect to see a
band of showers and thunderstorms develop along the
Michigan/Indiana border this evening, then continue to lift
northward with the warm front through the night. Strong 50-60 knot
low-level jet will provide additional instability aloft. Stronger
updrafts that are able to develop may be capable of a strong or
even damaging wind gusts. Tornado threat is not high, but also
non-zero given low LCL heights and strong shear (20-25 of 0-1km
bulk shear).
Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the area for tomorrow.
First issue will be potential for a line of showers, perhaps a few
thunderstorms, to work across the area along/ahead of the cold
front tomorrow morning and tap into core of 40-55 knot winds
aloft. Front should also provide a good pop of winds, with models
showing impressive isentropic descent. Strong wind gusts will
persist behind the front for several hours as the boundary layer
deepens and low-level lapse rates steepen. The should allow wind
gusts to 45 mph to mix down to the surface from frontal passage
(starting in the west CWA at approximately 10 AM and last through
about 6PM.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Two chances for rain in the long term, one coming Saturday night
into Sunday and again next week Wednesday into Thursday.
We move into a northwest upper flow regime behind the low that moves
through tomorrow (Fri). A shortwave dropping southeast in the upper
flow will bring a chance of rain showers Saturday night into Sunday.
The precipitation looks to be pretty light given that Gulf moisture
is cut off and its a clipper type system.
Another chance for rain showers exists from Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday. This rain next week is associated with a weak low that
moves our direction out of the Central Plains. Neither next week`s
rain or the rain over the weekend looks to have much instability, so
kept thunder out of the forecast with both events.
Otherwise, we look to cool down a bit for Sunday and Monday with
highs in the 60s. Highs warm a bit above normal once again for
Tuesday and Wednesday to around 70 or into the low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Variable conditions this evening with flight categories ranging
from IFR to VFR. Showers and tstms expected to become more
numerous through 03z, but then lift mostly north of the area by
06z with the warm front.
Winds increasing out of the south late tonight with the passage
of the warm front, gusting at times to 25 kts. Cigs expected to be
predominately MVFR overnight within warm sector with only
isolated showers/tstms, although some IFR/marine fog may continue
to plague MKG at times.
A narrow line of showers and tstms may develop around 15z Friday
ahead of the cold front, quickly exiting to the east by 18Z. A
period of rather strong/gusty west-northwest winds is likely with
the cold frontal passage. We could see some gusts near 40 knots
during the late morning through mid afternoon Friday, especially
south and east of GRR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Small craft advisory is in effect late tonight through Friday for
all nearshore zones. Southwest winds will increase tonight in
advance of approaching low pressure, gusting to 25 knots after
midnight. Winds will then shift and increase Friday morning behind
a cold front. Some concern that winds could increase to gale
force, but thinking is that instability looks too limited by
colder lake waters to mix high enough to bring gale force gusts to
the surface. This potential will have to be watched.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
A couple swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rain fell Wednesday night,
mainly in the Kalamazoo and Muskegon river basins. As a result, some
river forecast points may approach or exceed bankfull over the next
few days. The greatest chance for rainfall around 1 inch Thursday
night appears to be over the Muskegon basin.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for MIZ045-046-051-
052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for LMZ849.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for LMZ844>848.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...HLO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
An increasingly stable boundary layer this evening has caused a
shift away for severe storm potential tonight, with coverage of
showers now looking scattered to isolated in nature. A cold front
is still approaching the area, but the limited instability ahead
of the front, and the lack of a strong shortwave trigger, will
preclude much in the way of thunderstorm development in central
IL. The latest HRRR goes so far as to remove nearly all showery
precip the rest of the night. Have worked to diminish coverage and
level of PoPs/precip, to trend toward drier conditions in general.
The NAM and GFS are still painting a line of showers advancing
from west to east across the area later tonight into Friday
morning.
Cloud cover will be variable, but mostly cloudy conditions should
prevail the rest of the night, helping to minimize the diurnal
temp falls a bit. Lows are expected in the low to mid 60s, well
above seasonal normals.
The cold front will push across IL tomorrow morning, bringing
cooler air and a wind shift from gusty south winds tonight, to
brisk NW winds tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Prolonged precip today associated with a short wave moving through
the region well within a warm sector associated with a developing
low pressure system out to the west. This afternoon, storms are
firing to the north along a warm frontal feature, and the cold
front lingers well off to the west. High resolution models still
in conflict over evolution of the precip/severe threat through the
late afternoon and evening hours. Cannot rule out the potential
for another round of precip, but the severe threat is becoming
marginalized by not only ongoing showers and convection, but
persistent cloud cover extending well back to the southwest on
satellite imagery. Keeping the pops in for the overnight in a
couple of waves, hinted in the RAP and NAM...less so in the HRRR.
Better chance for any severe weather reports will come with the
better forcing provided by the cold frontal passage towards dawn.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with the strongest
storms should they develop. Then again, just off the surface at
around 2000 ft, southwesterly winds ramp up rather quickly to
40-45kts in the low level jet. Will expect some gusty winds with
the showers in the overnight hours. Plenty of cloud cover will
inhibit a significant drop in temp and overnight lows will only
get into the 60s. Tomorrow, gusts behind the front will keep the
morning somewhat blustery, with somewhat drier rather than cooler
air moving into the region. By later in the afternoon, high temps
will be into the mid-upper 70s, and skies trying to clear by
sunset.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Behind the boundary, with the drier air and light winds, a good
set up for radiational cooling on Friday night will drop the temps
into the 50s. Plenty of sunshine will bring the highs on Saturday
back up into the lower 80s with partly cloudy skies. Weak
northwesterly flow aloft will result in some cooling at mid
levels, and a reinforcing shot of cooler air Sat night. With that,
a chance for showers overnight into Saturday...and Sundays highs
get held in the mid to upper 70s, still above seasonal normals.
Dry weather Monday and Tuesday with temperatures close to normals
on Monday, and just a touch warmer for Tuesday as the surface
winds pick up more of southerly component. Both the ECMWF and the
GFS paint a stormy picture for the latter half of next week as a
stronger wave moves into the region from the northwest aloft, with
near normal temperatures for early May.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
MVFR clouds will prevail, despite a break in the showers at the
TAF sites early this evening. High resolution guidance shows
redevelopment in the warm sector across our western counties by
around 02-03z. No strong or vigorous updrafts are expected, but a
few thunderstorms could impact the terminal sites. The HRRR shows
limited coverage of showers/storms, that last until 08z-09z or so.
Despite some thunder potential, we kept the LLWS conditions in the
forecast, due to a strong 45kt LLJ advancing across the area
overnight. LLWS conditions should dissipate toward 12z.
Clouds should improve to VFR from west to east as a cold front
pushes across central IL Friday morning. That will also usher in a
wind shift from S-SW to NW by late morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1014 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Widespread showers that had been riding along the mid Mississippi,
lower Ohio, and lower Wabash River valleys have almost diminished at
this hour. Given that the diminishment is even faster than hi-res
model data suggested, have lowered pops down into the low chance
range across southern IN and northern KY for the next several hours.
The next challenge will be whether or not scattered showers (and
perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) develop in the pre-dawn hours
through sunrise into our area. We`ll maintain a healthy low level
jet through the overnight, but chances for showers and/or a storm
should only increase toward dawn as the exit region of an upper
impulse noses into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valley
regions. Models seem to be struggling with whether or not the added
lift and combined low to mid level moisture transport will be enough
to spark new development. Getting mixed signals from the operational
models (all suggesting precipitation) versus only some of the higher
res models suggesting precip. Will maintain chance pops in the pre-
dawn hours through the morning, but do have some doubts as to
whether this time frame might be trending drier. Day shift also
alluded to this so there may be a trend there.
Final focus in the short term will then shift to late Friday
afternoon and early evening when the cold front finally makes it
into the area. If we are able to destabilize ahead of this feature,
some scattered storms (perhaps strong?) could quickly drop southeast
across the area.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
The main forecast concerns in the short term are precipitation
chances and severe storm threats tonight and Friday.
As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed an area of low
pressure organizing across central Kansas with its warm front well
north of the area into the lower Great Lakes. High pressure was
situated off the southeast US. After a morning decaying MCS that
moved through parts of southern IN and north central KY, partly to
mostly cloudy skies prevailed. Mid afternoon readings were in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. The best moisture axis remains just to the
west of the area, characterized by dewpoints 65+. This is where an
area of showers continues, mainly across western KY and southern IL.
Through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours, a
mostly dry forecast is expected. Recent trends in the HRRR and other
hi-res models show a low potential, mainly along/north of Ohio River
and west of I-65. South of there, a warm evening is expected with
readings staying in the 70s.
Tonight
Overnight, the aforementioned low pressure races toward Wisconsin
and will bring a cold front toward the lower Ohio Valley by Friday
morning. Some moisture transport along the front interacting with
the low level jet overnight may bring scattered showers and storms
to the western forecast area by sunrise, then across the entire
forecast area during the morning hours. The NAM and GFS are the most
aggressive with the QPF, while a lot of the hi-res models such as the
WRF ARW, NMM and NSSL WRF along with the ECMWF indicate a lot less
QPF. As a result, kept precipitation chances in the 40 to 50 percent
range, highest west of I-65 overnight and generally kept thunder
chances low. But if the trends shown in the hi-res models continue,
then later forecasts may need to adjust precip chances down overnight
and Friday morning.
Friday Afternoon
The main forcing with this system quickly lifts toward New England
Friday and the surface front sags through the area during the
afternoon. Depending on destabilization and clearing potential
during the afternoon, a few thunderstorms may develop across
southern IN then track southward into central KY. But the models
have backed off on the strength of the shear profiles and
instability parameters, so while a few stronger storms are possible,
the greater threat for severe weather is northeast of the forecast
area. Plan on highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Shower and storm
chances will remain low into Friday evening, especially across
central KY.
.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
Saturday
The front from Friday is expected to wash out across the TN/OH
Valley Friday night into Saturday. On Saturday, an area of low
pressure is forecast to track through the southern Appalachians
while a compact upper level low swings through the region. This
would bring moisture back into central Kentucky. The big question
for Saturday is how far north into Kentucky will showers reach. With
the 03.12z deterministic and ensemble guidance, there continues to
be an northward trend in the data that warrants precipitation
chances at least to the Ohio River. The highest chances for a
prolonged area of showers and perhaps thunderstorms continues to
be south central Kentucky. It is also worth noting that with the
increased rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures were brought
down a few more degrees. It may be a cooler day with highs staying
in the 60s where rain/clouds are most widespread. And some of the
raw gridded guidance suggests readings may not get out of the mid
60s across central Kentucky.
Rain will end west to east Saturday evening giving way to a mostly
dry conditions overnight. Plan on lows in the lower/middle 50s.
Sunday
The forecast for Sunday is a bit more uncertain as various models
differ on timing the next weather system. The GFS and GEM are much
quicker bringing in the next front and shower chances, while the
ECMWF holds it off until later Sunday evening. As a result, leaned
on the model consensus and kept precipitation chances in the 20-40
percent range. Highs look to top out in the 70s.
Weak upper level troughing continues early next week bringing mostly
dry conditions and near normal temperatures to southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. By mid to late week, another upper level trough
swings through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley and could bring
showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures look to return back to
normal or above normal as southerly flow sets back up over the
region.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
VFR conditions continue during the overnight hours. Light rain is
currently across southern Indiana and west of the Mississippi River.
This line of light rain will continue moving east and will slowly
weaken as it does.
During the overnight period, wind shear is expected from the
southwest, 190-230 degrees, at 38-45 knots near 2,000 ft AGL.
During the end of the forecast period, a cold front moving in from
the northwest will begin to drop ceilings and bring rain showers
across the area. For now, Huntingburg is the first to go under VFR
conditions, for a short time, just after daybreak.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...BJS
Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
Aviation...KDW
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
943 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Regional radar showed rain over central and eastern AR had, for
the most part, dissipated with loss of surface heating. KNQA VAD
wind profile showed near unidirectional shear, perhaps some backing
with height, suggesting little to no warm advection to support
elevated shower development.
Short term convection-allowing models continued to differ in
occurrence and placement of overnight showers and thunderstorms.
The RAP model appeared to have a better limiting low end rain
chances to areas north of I-40, in the vicinity of perhaps better
height falls toward morning. Forecast confidence remains low in
anything developing, and have lowered first period PoPs accordingly.
Forecast confidence increases with respect to Friday`s storm
chances, ahead of more pronounced midlevel height falls late in
the afternoon and evening.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/
UPDATE...
Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a slow moving cold front are
currently racing across Arkansas. These storms will move into
Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel between
21-23Z(4-6 PM). The convection is expected to be in a weakening
phase as it pushes into the area due to the upper ridge that is in
place, but can`t rule out an isolated strong to severe storm. The
remnants of the line may make it as far east as a Martin to
Memphis to Clarksdale line before dissipating. Do not expect much
activity after the line diminishes, thus only kept 20-30 POPS for
the overnight hours. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
Another round of convection may fire up just after sunrise into
the morning hours along the I-40 corridor between Forrest City
and Jackson. Meanwhile, expect a larger area of convection, that
will be moving out of Texarkana area during the morning hours, to
push into the Mid-South during the afternoon hours. This will put
a damper on any outdoor activities Friday afternoon through
Friday evening. Additional redevelopment will be possible into the
overnight hours as the cold front moves into the CWA.
An upper trof will then move through the region on Saturday and
will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Behind the trof, high pressure will try to build into the area.
However, a secondary back door cold front may kick of some
showers and thunderstorms across portions of West Tennessee, the
Missouri Bootheel, and East Arkansas Sunday afternoon into Sunday
Night.
Rain-free conditions can be expected for early next week, but by
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday Night and Thursday rain
chances will return as another upper trof moves into the region.
Overall, temperatures will be near normal with highs ranging from
the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Lows will range from the mid 50s to
mid 60s after the weekend.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs
Left over convective activity in the form of rain showers may
produce a few rain showers at MEM, MKL, JBR this evening. There
will be a potential for MVFR ceilings to develop Friday morning at
TAF sites. An approaching cold front on Friday will be the focus
for VCTS mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. South
winds expected between 7-11 kts with a few gusts during the day
Friday will veer SW/W with a cold front towards late Friday
afternoon into Friday evening.
CJC
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
656 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Updated the forecast for the expiration of the Lake Wind Advisory
across the rest of the area. Also updated precipitation chances to
reflect current trends.
Rain showers covering a large part of southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois should continue to fizzle through mid evening,
leaving behind what is looking more and more like a dry forecast
by late evening and perhaps into the overnight. As the cold front
approaches late tonight, increasing low level flow ahead of the
front could regenerate isolated to scattered mainly elevated
convection. As a result, we kept a mention of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms in the overnight forecast. Will take a
look at new model guidance in a few hours, reevaluate, and amend
again if necessary. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains
unchanged.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Two more MCVs to go this afternoon and evening. One MCV is pushing
northeast out of the area this afternoon while the other is
approaching from western Arkansas. For the most part there is just
a slowly dissipating area of rain associated with the first
impulse, but there is some strong to severe elements and more
thunder associated with the Arkansas impulse.
Portions of Carter, Ripley, Butler and Wayne counties in
southeast Missouri have already received 2 to 3 inches of rainfall
today. The overall trend is for the Arkansas system to weaken
significantly as it approaches and eventually reaches our area,
but as it arrives into those especially water-logged areas of
southeast Missouri, it may still have a few heavier convective
elements. We will have to monitor closely for some flooding
issues there, but no issues have been reported as of yet.
The latest HRRRs are basically wiping the Arkansas system out over
our region by 00Z or 01Z this evening. Given how worked over the
environment is here, confidence in a major weakening trend is
rather high. This forecast is headed that way, but may be a bit
slow overall with respect to the latest HRRR output.
Later tonight the overall trend in the 12Z and later guidance is
drier. The HRRRs and WRFs keep the area virtually dry overnight,
as the main portion of the upper-level system lifts into the Great
Lakes region. The larger-scale models still generate some
convection mainly along and south of the Ohio River after 06Z.
Whatever develops overnight will lift northeast out of west
Kentucky Friday morning.
The cold front is still forecast to move through the area Friday
as the remaining portion of the upper trough continues to shear
out just to our northwest and north. Wind fields will be weaker
and unidirectional, but if we are able to warm up enough the
SBCAPE may reach 2000J/kg. Figure we will see some scattered
convection along the cold front in the afternoon with greatest
coverage across southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile. The forecast
shear will not support rotating updrafts, but a few storms may
pulse up to near-severe levels with a hail and damaging wind
concern.
Temperatures will be very mild tonight. High temperatures Friday
will be highly dependent on clouds and precipitation, but we are
not expecting a non-diurnal trend behind the cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
What is most certain in the remainder of the 7-day forecast period
is that the mid level flow pattern will remain quite active and
dynamic. The finer details in the deterministic medium range models
were a little harder to come by, but manageable, especially after
the 12Z ECMWF came in.
The ECENES/GEFS means suggested that a northern stream shortwave
will depart the eastern CONUS early, followed by a slower one in the
southern stream early in the weekend, and a phased shortwave trof
late in the weekend/early next week. The mid level pattern over the
eastern CONUS is progged to split again early next week ahead of a
substantial trof diving east-southeastward from the Pacific
Northwest. This trof should affect the eastern CONUS late in the
forecast period.
As cooler air near the surface attempts to filter in Fri night/Sat,
cloud cover is expected to be quite prevalent due to a surface wave
that may develop along the retreating cold front in the vicinity of
the southern Pennyrile region of KY. Shower activity should slowly
wane from northwest to southeast during the day Sat. Sat night and
Sun morning should be clear to partly cloudy under weak high
pressure. Limited PoPs do return, however, by Sun afternoon,
lingering into Sun night as the aforementioned phased shortwave and
surface cold front surges through the PAH forecast area. QPF
appeared light due to limited moist return flow. There may be enough
instability for isolated lightning strikes.
The forecast looks mostly clear and dry for us until midweek under
slackening flow aloft and general high pressure at the surface, as
the flow aloft splits just to our east. Toward the end of the
forecast period (Wed/Thu), the Pacific Northwest trof and attendant
surface low are progged to move into the upper Midwest. Our region
will be in the warm sector most of the time, with scattered showers
increasing from the west Wed and becoming perhaps a bit more common
Thu. Lightning will be possible mainly during the daytime hours.
Temps are expected to be AOA seasonable averages through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
Areas of rain with some mvfr conditions will gradually dissipate
early this evening. Primarily vfr conditions are expected tonight.
Low level southwest winds will remain quite strong, and low level
wind shear is forecast at some sites.
Toward morning, widespread mvfr cigs are forecast to move into our
region. There may also be scattered showers. The mvfr cigs will be
persistent much of the day along and ahead of a cold front. Isolated
to scattered tsra will develop ahead of the front. Late in the
afternoon, the winds will shift to northwest across se Missouri, srn
Illinois, and sw Indiana as the front passes.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda high pressure system will extend into the Carolinas
through Friday. A cold front will approach the region from the
northwest late Friday and then slowly move across the area on
Saturday, then reach the coast on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 910 PM Thursday...
Deep ridging extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico stretches
across the Southeast and into the mid Atlantic tonight. Thin, patchy
high clouds will spill over the ridge, but will have minimal impact
on temperatures. A light southwest wind will persist overnight,
keeping us mixed to result in mild conditions with lows from 58 to
63 - 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...
The narrow ridge axis across the Southeast will break down as an
elongated upper trough slowly moves east across the Ohio and
Tennesse Valleys. The air mass across central NC will moisten
through Friday night, a subsident regime will result in dry
conditions. High clouds will continue to increase on Friday with
a more notable increase in mid and with even lower level
moisture from the west on Friday night. Low level thickness
values will increase another few meters but the warming column
will be mitigated in part by more diffuse sunshine. Highs will
range in the in the mid to upper 80s. Lows ahead of the front
with cloud cover and a stirring wind will be mild and range in
the mid 60s. -Blaes
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...
A slow-moving cold front will approach from the west on Saturday as
a mid-level trough crosses the TN Valley. Meanwhile, a closed upper
trough crossing eastern and central Cuba will send a plume of deep
moisture northward around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge out over the Atlantic. While the moisture with the latter
feature is progged to stay to our east, the moisture assoc with the
cold front approaching from the west will move into our northern and
western zones as early as Saturday morning, particularly north of
the I-85 corridor. This is a bit earlier in the day than recent
model runs. South of the I-85 corridor, look for dry weather on
Saturday. Rain chances will further increase Saturday evening and
night as the cold front moves in to the Triad region. Then on
Sunday, the rain chances will gradually shift eastward as the front
moves across the state.
Early next week, another short wave trailing the weekend`s weather
systems will cross the SE states. While that system may bring another
chance for rain to our area, right now it appears that the best
chances will be to our west and south.
We`ll have a brief break in the weather during the middle of the
week, but then another short wave will approach for the latter
portion of the week.
Regarding temps...the above normal readings will continue on
Saturday, but then will drop back to near-normal through the rest of
the forecast period due to the series of troughs crossing our region
coupled with increased cloud cover and rain chances.&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 807 PM Thursday...
24 hour TAF period: Widespread VFR conditions with mostly clear
skies will continue throughout the beginning of the 24 hour TAF
period. The NAM, HRRR, and RAP still indicate the possibility for a
very brief period of MVFR ceilings across the far Southern Coastal
Plain before sunrise Friday morning that should remain southeast of
the KFAY terminal. Winds from the southwest will decrease overnight
to around 5kts before increasing back to 10kts with gusts
approaching 20kts late Friday morning and afternoon. Upper level
clouds will increase in coverage late Friday afternoon through the
evening hours across the Piedmont as a cold front slowly approaches
from the northwest.
Long Term: Cloud cover will increase throughout Friday, becoming
more widespread on Saturday. Spotty showers will be possible late
Saturday with increasing precipitation chances through Monday as a
cold front slowly progresses through the area. Conditions will
gradually improve on Tuesday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...mlm/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...SEM/mlm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1102 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018
.AVIATION...
Only very light returns are being detected by radar across NE TX
into SW AR attm and latest short term progs suggest that is pretty
much all we will see through sunrise. Should see returning MVFR
ceilings overnight however and cannot rule out some IFR ceilings
as well across our NE TX terminal locations. A cold front will
make quick progress through our airspace during the day Friday and
with it will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tried to show
a slow but steady improvement with daytime ceilings on Friday even
with the thunderstorms along the cold front with showers and
embedded thunder even possible behind the cold front Friday
Afternoon into Friday Evening.
S to SE winds near 10kts or so overnight will quickly shift to the
NW in the wake of the boundary during the day Friday with speeds
near 10kts with some higher gusts.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/
UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms diminished quickly after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. Southwest flow aloft is real dirty but
mainly across our west and northwest zones and with the new 00z
progs coming in with not much in the way of additional development
overnight including the HRRR, went ahead and lowered pops across
our western half for the remainder of the evening. The rain has
caused hourly temps to fall slightly below our overnight forecast
mins so had to make this adjustment as well even though these
temperatures will likely remain stationary for the remainder of
the night or cloud climb slightly with low level cloud cover
expected to expand northward once again tonight.
All other grids are in good shape so no additional changes are
necessary attm.
Updated zone package out shortly...13.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/
AVIATION...
Persistent broken line of showers with embedded thunderstorms
continue to affect the TYR and TXK terminals attm. Storm movement
is more north than east so confidence is not real strong on this
activity moving into our remaining terminals this evening into the
overnight hours despite what the HRRR and NAM12 output suggests.
For that reason, have left out any mention of weather in our
remaining terminals until near or after sunrise on Friday. A cold
front will be moving into our region from the north and west with
additional showers and thunderstorms likely developing along and
ahead of this frontal boundary. MVFR ceilings/VSBYS will be
possible with what convection is currently ongoing with
occasional IFR ceilings and VSBYS as well. Otherwise, we should
see a return to MVFR ceilings areawide later tonight ahead of the
convection into the predawn hours on Friday with these ceilings
slowly rising to near VFR conditions outside broken convection on
Friday. Have also added a wind shift from southerly to
northwesterly during the daytime hours across our terminal
locations to account for the frontal passage.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 77 62 80 / 10 70 60 20
MLU 67 80 64 79 / 0 40 70 40
DEQ 65 73 56 82 / 50 50 20 10
TXK 68 72 58 78 / 60 50 30 10
ELD 69 77 60 79 / 20 40 60 20
TYR 70 74 59 80 / 40 80 40 10
GGG 69 74 60 80 / 30 80 60 10
LFK 70 80 62 80 / 10 80 60 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
13/13/13