Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/04/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1028 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish this evening, and it will remain cloudy and mild overnight. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday, with warm temperatures continuing. A cold front will bring dry weather for Saturday with temperatures closer to normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1028 PM EDT...Our region remains situated within a warm sector, with a subtle frontal boundary located northwest of the region across the eastern Great Lakes northeast into the St. Lawrence Valley. The proximity of this front is allowing for a concentrated areas of showers over the western and central Adirondacks, as seen in the latest MRMS imagery. Meanwhile, some spotty showers are still ongoing across the remainder of the area, although these are fairly brief and short-lived. SPC mesoanalysis shows instability has waned over the region, as a result of the loss of daytime heating. Will not include any more thunder through the remainder of the overnight hours. Based on the latest 3km HRRR and 00z NAM, the frontal boundary located northwest of area may start to drift southeast and start to weaken. Showers over the Adirondacks will start to move southeast towards the Glens Falls-Saratoga Region and into southern Vermont towards midnight, but should start to dissipate as the front starts to become rather diffuse. Afterward, any showers will be fairly spotty for the remainder of the overnight hours with little organization expected. As a result, most areas should start fairly quiet overnight, although it will remain fairly cloudy. Will keep POPS fairly low, except for northern areas over the next few hours. With the clouds around, it will continue to be mild, with lows tonight in the 50s and 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Deamplifying midlevel trough will track from the western Great Lakes to northern New England Friday into Friday night, with the attendant surface low tracking from northern Michigan to Maritime Canada. The system`s warm front will push through the local forecast area Friday morning, possibly accompanied by a few showers mainly west of the Hudson Valley. This will put us in the warm sector Friday, with forcing for ascent gradually increasing with weak height falls ahead of the approaching trough. The forcing will be greatest from the Catskills, Capital District, and southern Vermont north and west, where likely PoPs are in place for the afternoon and evening. Similar to today, a strong deep-layer wind field will be in place with instability being the limiting factor. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to be weak, and given dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s (model guidance showing higher values likely overdone again given the lack of foliage), seems MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg will again be possible. Once again wind is expected to be the main threat given the strong deep-layer wind field, meager instability, and high LCLs. Though the best synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will not arrive until Friday night with the approach of the trough axis/cold front, weak height falls/perhaps a prefrontal trough may be enough to promote convective activity. SPC marginal risk looks good. It should be a bit breezy with a strong pressure gradient in the warm sector, with some gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. Convective threat should diminish 00-06Z as the cold front tracks through the area. Some gusty winds possible in the wake of the front especially north of the Capital District. High pressure expands into the region late Friday night into Saturday, with a much drier and more seasonable airmass taking hold. Highs Saturday expected to be some 10F cooler than Friday with plenty of sunshine expected. Mainly clear Saturday night, although clouds may increase from the south late ahead of a trough moving into the Ohio Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended period begins with improving conditions and ends with increasing cloudiness, but with a long duration of dry, seasonable conditions in between. Low pressure over the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday morning will initially spread a chance of rain across our forecast area, but will tend to be quickly suppressed to the south and east as the passage of a weakening cold front from southeastern Ontario results in a change in our flow pattern. Thus, things quickly improve by Sunday night, and conditions will be dry and pleasant, with plentiful sunshine through Thursday under the influence of sprawling high pressure. The passage of a shallow and weakening cold front on Wednesday will do little more than to keep the heat from building too much. There probably won`t even be any clouds associated with it. High pressure ridging tries to remain in place down the eastern seaboard as a low pressure area begins its approach from the middle of the country. High cloudiness starts its return ahead of it on Thursday. Some of the best weather in recent memory can be expected...with high temperatures from the upper 50s in the high peaks to the upper 60s down the Hudson Valley on Sunday, from around 50 in the high peaks to the mid 60s in the valleys on Monday, and the upper 50s in the high peaks to the lower 70s in the valleys Tuesday through Thursday. Lows will be in the mid 50s in the Adirondacks Sunday night, where precipitation could end as snow or a mix, to the mid 40s in the Hudson Valley and southern zones. The other mountain regions will be down into mostly the upper 30s. Monday night will be slightly cooler, but all locations should stay above freezing under mostly clear skies. Beyond that point, low readings will moderate somewhat under a light southerly flow, which will only slowly increase humidities progressing through mid-week. Lows Wednesday night will be in mostly the upper 40s. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Threat for widespread showers/thunderstorms has ended, as area of widespread showers has now moved south/east of the area. Still may be a few lingering light rain showers over next few hours, but coverage is fairly isolated, so will only address with a VCSH for now and allow for continued VFR conditions. The only site that saw any appreciable rainfall today was KPOU, so cannot totally rule out some mist/fog that could develop there late in the overnight if any breaks in the clouds occur, otherwise, dry conditions should prevent any fog for the other sites, with VFR conditions expected overnight thanks to bkn-ovc cigs at 4-6 kft. Winds will be fairly light and variable overnight. During the day on Friday, VFR conditions look to be in place for most of the day. There could be some more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening once again. For now, will just go with a VCSH, although brief reductions due to SHRA/TSRA will be possible for all sites. Southerly winds will increase to 5-10 kts with a few higher gusts for during the day on Friday for all sites. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the region this afternoon into this evening, diminishing tonight. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday, although the whole day won`t be a washout. Gusty southwest winds to 25 to 35 mph are possible Friday afternoon along with warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s. RH values will fall into the 45 to 55 percent range. A drier airmass will take hold Saturday, with plenty of sunshine and westerly winds gusting to near 20 mph. RH values will fall into the 35 to 45 percent range with high temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. Sunday will be slightly cooler with a chance of showers. && .HYDROLOGY... A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms, but widespread hydro issues are not anticipated. Basin- average rainfall in the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range is expected. Current forecasts have Hinckley Dam approaching minor flood stage late Friday night or Saturday morning. Any remaining snow will continue to melt across the mountains. Some of the reservoirs will see steady or slightly rising water levels due to the snow melt and some rainfall associated with showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather should return over the weekend, with temperatures cooling to more seasonable levels. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Thompson NEAR TERM...Frugis/Thompson SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...Thompson HYDROLOGY...Thompson/JVM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
752 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to prevail over the region through Friday. It will be dry and warm. A frontal system will move into the area over the weekend bringing a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Dry ridging both at the surface and aloft will continue to dominate through tonight. Satellite imagery this evening shows some scattered high clouds, but expect mostly clear skies overnight. Patchy fog and/or stratus development will be possibly late tonight and early Friday morning due to a slight increase in low-level moisture in the southerly flow coupled with nocturnal cooling, particularly in the southeastern portion of the area where moisture will be slightly deeper. However, a 20 knot low- level jet supports more of a stratus threat. The HRRR does not show any fog or stratus developing. Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Both the surface and upper ridge will remain strong enough through Saturday to keep conditions dry across the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be above normal. For Friday, mostly sunny skies. Expect only a few cirrus clouds and possibly some afternoon cumulus. With the ridge aloft and at the surface still in place, afternoon highs remain well above normal with readings in the upper 80s to around 90. Although some moisture may begin returning at low-levels, strong mid-level capping will keep the area dry. Friday night, Continued dry with partly cloud skies expected. Can not rule out the return of some patchy low-level stratus/fog towards morning due to the increasing low-level moisture below the inversion. Lows overnight will be around 60 degrees. Saturday, A cold front will be west of the area and slowly pushing eastward during the day. Both the surface and upper ridging will begin trying to break down on Saturday as the front pushes towards the region. However the ridge should still be strong enough through the majority of the day to keep the low-level capping inversion in place. Expecting dry conditions with an increase in afternoon cumulus. Highs from the mid to upper 80s. By Saturday night, the cold front will be in the central Appalachians, with a surface low moving along it. Models try to bring some rainfall into the western portions of SC during the night. Have generally gone with slight chance across the western counties through the night, with central and eastern portions of the cwa mostly dry overnight. Overnight temperatures remain mild due to warm advection ahead of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lower confidence in the longer term due to models diverging in regards to the speed/timing of the next shortwave moving in behind the cold front for early next week. Isolated to scattered shower/storms will remain possible on Sunday in association with the cold front. Another shortwave trough will push through the region into Tuesday, and this should keep slight chance pops across the cwa until that pushes east by Tuesday Night. Dry weather expected again by Wednesday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal during the period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... We have high confidence in VFR conditions through 06z. Fog or stratus could develop mainly at AGS and OGB 07z-12z. High pressure will extend into the forecast area through Friday. South to southeast winds expected this evening 5 to 10 knots associated with the seabreeze front pushing well inland. Winds should diminish to near calm during the early morning hours. Some increase in low-level moisture in the southerly flow combined with nocturnal cooling should aid the development of stratus or fog late tonight. A 15-to 20-knot low-level jet may favor more of a stratus threat. The threat will be greatest from OGB to AGS on southeast to the coast and have included a period of IFR conditions at AGS and OGB. The guidance was less consistent farther northwest and we maintained VFR conditions at CAE/CUB/DNL. VFR should return to all sites around 13z with winds becoming south to southwest 5 to 10 knots. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Increasing low-level moisture expected to provide the chance for restrictions in fog or stratus during the early morning hours Saturday. There is a chance of showers or possibly thunderstorms with associated restrictions Sunday through Monday as a slow moving frontal boundary crosses the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
654 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/ Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 The primary concern remains severe weather and heavy rain into the evening hours. Elevated convection appears to be expanding across northeast NE ahead of the approaching upper level low. There is a pronounced elongated PV trough from NM into NE with one short wave of note over far southwest NE and another driving this convection over northeast NE. This deep, phased thermodynamic and kinematic forcing will phase into a convective deformation zone producing fairly widespread moderate to heavy rains over northern Iowa, which is farther north than previously anticipated. The heavy rain parameters are not extreme, but the extended period of precip with low static stabilities will result in widespread 1-2 inch rains with a Flood Watch posted for expected rises along the Cedar River at Cedar Falls. No Flash Flood Watch at the moment due to rates not getting too crazy, but Flash Flood Guidance there is fairly low due to recent rains and snow melt. Farther south, severe weather will be the primary concern. 19Z surface analysis notes the surface low near Manhattan KS with objective analysis noting decent pressure falls into IA and warm front just south of Des Moines. Discrete convection has recently developed just ahead of the triple point and is expected to move into southwest IA over the next several hours. Most convection allowing models /CAMs/ are similar with this progression bringing a broken line of discrete convection across southern Iowa during the early evening hours. There will certainly be a window for severe potential with extreme deep shear values resulting in large hail and wind potential, and mid level lapse rates and DCAPE/delta theta-e values all increase respectively. The tornado window is not great or long lasting, but forecast soundings and RAP plan views suggest better low level kinematics ahead of the triple point in terms of ESRH and 0-1km shear and well as lower LCLs due to lingering fog and stratus. Thus the tornado threat in the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely better in our northern portions and other parts of southern Iowa. CAMs suggest the broken line will exit our forecast area by +/- 03z but the deformation zone precip may linger through midnight. Tomorrow will provide a welcome relief to our recent active weather with plenty of sunshine and seasonal temperatures as strong subsidence and drying follow this system. .LONG TERM.../Friday night through Thursday/ Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 The main concern over the extended period was focused temperatures and low chances of storms Saturday into Saturday night. Leaned toward a blend of the GFS/ECMWF throughout the extended period as models remain in good agreement. Northwest flow aloft becomes the dominant weather feature over the weekend into early next week before a strong 500mb shortwave pushes across the region by Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a weak cold front to push across the state Saturday night and will spawn some convection late in the afternoon over northern Iowa and then further south during the evening hours. Low potential for any widespread severe threat as the better instability is further south and the better forcing (albeit weak) remains in the north late Saturday afternoon with the front. Certainly cannot rule out an isolated hail threat, but any widespread coverage of severe storms is unlikely. With the front slightly slower to move across the by Saturday evening, nudged up maximum temperatures a little on Saturday. Cooler temperatures back into the state by Sunday as a surface high pressure builds into the region through Monday. Dry and mild temperatures likely through the middle of the week. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/ Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Main concern is convection with strong winds and lower cigs/vsby. Looks like the main area will be east of KDSM by 05-06z and KOTM by 06-08z. Back edge and lobe of rainfall may affect KFOD through 06z-08z as well as KMCW/KALO through 09-10z. Rain and -TSRA/+TSRA at times through 05z with -SHRA/-TSRA remainder of convection. Conditions quiet down aft 12-14z most areas with NW flow and VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. /rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Small LONG TERM...Podrazik AVIATION...REV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
902 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 .UPDATE... While the first batch of rainfall has completely exited the forecast area to the east, the next round is beginning to take shape far to our southwest. Evening satellite imagery depicts a wave of ascent overspreading much of southwestern Texas and northern Mexico where new convection is initiating. A corridor of steep mid-level lapse rates exists from this activity northeastward through Central and northeastern Texas. Continued ascent and southwesterly steering flow should usher this activity into the forecast area late tonight or early Friday morning, likely after 5am. Prior to the arrival of this eventual convective cluster, only isolated showers or perhaps a rumble of thunder or two can be expected across our Central Texas counties. Latest RAP soundings and mesoanalysis indicate up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE should be available across much of Central Texas along with 50+ kts of bulk shear. As a result, when more robust storms do arrive, they could pose a risk for severe hail and possibly a more isolated wind threat. Locations most at risk for a stronger storm from this activity would be locales near Temple/Killeen/Waco and points eastward through the early morning hours. Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front will be approaching the Red River just prior to daybreak. This front should be capable of generating a second area of convection near or just south of the Red River. High-res guidance is anticipating an increase to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE immediately along the frontal zone which would be supportive of elevated hail storms as convection becomes undercut by the boundary. Areas most at risk from this scenario would be roughly from Decatur to Paris and points northward. Later in the morning, am expecting the potential for strong or severe storms to decease as a fairly broad rain shield expands over much of the region. It will be a soggy Friday for a good portion of the forecast area with precip tapering off from northwest to southeast in the evening/overnight hours. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /Issued 659 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/ /00z TAFs/ Convection has cleared all TAF sites to the east this evening, and VFR conditions are expected through midnight. After midnight, a return of MVFR stratus is likely, initially at or above 2 kft, but likely falling below a few hours later. Overnight, another round of convection is expected to develop across the Big Bend region through the Texas Hill Country which will move northeastward into North and Central Texas by daybreak. In addition, a cold front will be pushing southward towards the Red River which should be capable of initiating its own convection. These two areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to cause numerous impacts to aviation through much of Friday morning, and have chosen to include VCTS/TSRA mentions throughout the morning hours with this TAF issuance. In addition, the cold front will bring a wind shift to the northwest, although wind speeds are expected to remain fairly light at 10 kts or less (not including stronger thunderstorm wind gusts, of course). After the main waves of convection shift eastward Friday afternoon, lingering lighter precipitation is likely to continue in their wake. This may result in prolonged reduced visibilities, but deep convection and TSRA potential should be waning during this time. Rain is expected to clear all TAF sites by Friday evening, and VFR conditions should then prevail. Winds will remain light out of the north through the remainder of the period. -Stalley && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 342 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/ The line of thunderstorms that invaded North Texas during the early morning hours remains intact, but its intensity has diminished this afternoon as it has become increasingly separated from the forcing that initiated it. Lapse rates aloft are still more than adequate for thunder, but from Corsicana northeastward, the boundary layer parcels being ingested have less than 1000J/kg in convective available potential energy. And with a generally weak surface wind field downstream, the inflow has been insufficient to spur any uptick in updraft intensity. While there remains some 25-30kt winds in the 925-850mb layer, this flow is nearly parallel to the line, and only the cells on the southern end of the line are benefiting from this moisture flux. In addition, the air downstream of these southern cells now exceeds 1500J/kg MLCAPE, and the potential for an isolated strong/severe storm will continue through sunset. Though well blanketed by clouds, the untapped air features temperatures in the 80s with dew points in the 70s. The mid-level flow has diminished somewhat, but more importantly, it too is nearly parallel to the linear convective complex, which is contributing to its slow progress this afternoon. With training prolonging heavy rain in some locations, flooding issues may arise. But as the surface layer stabilizes around sunset, the line will likely dissipate, and any significant flooding concerns are not anticipated. Showers could redevelop this evening behind the ongoing activity, but the atmosphere appears well worked over, and for much of North and Central Texas, the evening should be a lull in activity. However, another impulse embedded in southwest flow will emerge from Mexico this evening, and showers and storms should rapidly develop across the Edwards Plateau during the early morning hours Friday, spreading into our area from the southwest during the predawn hours. The convective mode will be dominated by showers, and the embedded elevated thunderstorms should not pose a severe threat early Friday morning. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 342 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/ /Friday through Thursday/ Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in progress across much of Central and North Texas during the early morning hours on Friday as the large upper trough over the western U.S. finally begins to move eastward. A surface cold front currently across western Kansas will slide southward overnight and should be in North Texas by Friday morning. The region remains entrenched within a deep warm moist airmass and as stronger forcing for ascent spreads over North Texas late tonight into Friday, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. There will be some instability available, but lapse rates are weak in the moist airmass, so outside of a limited wind threat, lightning and locally heavy rainfall appear to be the main threats. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually spread eastward and out of the area late in the day on Friday as the best forcing with the upper trough moves east. All but our far southeast counties should be rain free by Friday evening and even these areas will dry out through the late evening. Mid level ridging will be quick to build into the Southern Plains over the weekend with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s on Saturday and upper 80s on Sunday. The pattern should remain rather quiet through much of next week with the main storm track well removed from North Texas. We will have to watch for some potential northwest flow thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday, but for now we`ll keep the forecast dry. Temperatures should stay 5-10 degrees above normal through next week. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 72 58 81 59 / 40 80 20 5 0 Waco 69 71 57 80 57 / 70 90 30 10 0 Paris 68 72 57 79 56 / 20 70 20 10 0 Denton 66 72 55 81 56 / 40 70 10 5 0 McKinney 67 72 56 80 57 / 40 70 10 5 0 Dallas 69 73 60 82 60 / 40 80 20 5 0 Terrell 68 72 57 81 56 / 40 80 20 5 0 Corsicana 69 73 58 78 57 / 40 80 30 10 0 Temple 69 73 58 80 57 / 70 90 30 10 0 Mineral Wells 65 73 54 82 54 / 50 70 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 26/82
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
655 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Updated the forecast this evening to increase wind speeds/gusts and used CONSShort as it is doing well at initiation. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Today, we`ve seen a band of thunderstorms develop north of the surface low across the northern half of the forecast area. Skies have been mostly overcast, but there is some clearing in northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska. This will continue a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly in the vicinity of the surface low and stalled front. Latest HRRR is only developing a few isolated storms in this area though. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a chance for isolated landspout tornadoes, but SPC mesonalysis indicates the best combination of surface vorticity and low-level instability will strech from Beloit, KS up to Falls City, NE...largely outside of our forecast area. While can`t completely rule out a brief landspout, main threat will be hail and brief downpours. Later this evening, instability will begin to wane as the upper low continues eastward. Therefore only a few rain showers are expected across central Nebraska after 9pm. These showers will end overnight and skies will start to clear by morning. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Increased ridging aloft will lead to a warm and pleasant weekend across the area. Highs on Friday expected to be in the upper 70s, and Saturday will be even warmer with highs in the 80s. A subtle shortwave is forecasted to move through the area Saturday night through Sunday. This could bring us a chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but the liklihood for significant rain appears minimal. The passage of a front should keep temperatures on Sunday from rising out of the 70s. Seasonal conditions are expected to continue into early next week with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s each day. A bit more well- defined system is forecast to move through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing us a better chance for rain and thunderstorms than on Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Wind gusts should gradually decrease this evening as will any precipitation chances with VFR conditions eventually returning this evening to early overnight from west to east. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heinlein SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1020 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this evening and tonight as a warm front lifts through the area. A few of these storms could become strong or even severe, producing damaging wind gusts to 50 mph or hail to 1 inch in diameter. Gusty winds will develop with the passage of a cold front tomorrow, with the area experiencing 35-45 mph wind gusts develop in the mid- morning and lasting into the early evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Warm front convection has been rather underwhelming this evening with little instability available. Current MUCAPES from the SPC meso analysis page are only about 250 J/KG or less, and latest RAP progs show similar low values through the rest of the night. The svr wx and hvy rain threat now appear extremely low and will update the Hazardous Wx Outlook. Will also have pops tapering off to low chance south of the band of showers and isolated tstms now lifting through. No change to tomorrow`s wind advisory. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Short term concerns first center around potential and strength for convection this evening through tonight, and then for strong winds to develop over the area tomorrow. For tonight, warm front will lift northward into Lower Michigan this evening (after 7PM) as upper low over the plains opens and lifts towards the Great Lakes. Strong lift should exist this evening and into tonight as frontal forcing gets a boost from mid- level PVA and right entrance region of upper jet. Expect to see a band of showers and thunderstorms develop along the Michigan/Indiana border this evening, then continue to lift northward with the warm front through the night. Strong 50-60 knot low-level jet will provide additional instability aloft. Stronger updrafts that are able to develop may be capable of a strong or even damaging wind gusts. Tornado threat is not high, but also non-zero given low LCL heights and strong shear (20-25 of 0-1km bulk shear). Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the area for tomorrow. First issue will be potential for a line of showers, perhaps a few thunderstorms, to work across the area along/ahead of the cold front tomorrow morning and tap into core of 40-55 knot winds aloft. Front should also provide a good pop of winds, with models showing impressive isentropic descent. Strong wind gusts will persist behind the front for several hours as the boundary layer deepens and low-level lapse rates steepen. The should allow wind gusts to 45 mph to mix down to the surface from frontal passage (starting in the west CWA at approximately 10 AM and last through about 6PM. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Two chances for rain in the long term, one coming Saturday night into Sunday and again next week Wednesday into Thursday. We move into a northwest upper flow regime behind the low that moves through tomorrow (Fri). A shortwave dropping southeast in the upper flow will bring a chance of rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. The precipitation looks to be pretty light given that Gulf moisture is cut off and its a clipper type system. Another chance for rain showers exists from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This rain next week is associated with a weak low that moves our direction out of the Central Plains. Neither next week`s rain or the rain over the weekend looks to have much instability, so kept thunder out of the forecast with both events. Otherwise, we look to cool down a bit for Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s. Highs warm a bit above normal once again for Tuesday and Wednesday to around 70 or into the low 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Variable conditions this evening with flight categories ranging from IFR to VFR. Showers and tstms expected to become more numerous through 03z, but then lift mostly north of the area by 06z with the warm front. Winds increasing out of the south late tonight with the passage of the warm front, gusting at times to 25 kts. Cigs expected to be predominately MVFR overnight within warm sector with only isolated showers/tstms, although some IFR/marine fog may continue to plague MKG at times. A narrow line of showers and tstms may develop around 15z Friday ahead of the cold front, quickly exiting to the east by 18Z. A period of rather strong/gusty west-northwest winds is likely with the cold frontal passage. We could see some gusts near 40 knots during the late morning through mid afternoon Friday, especially south and east of GRR. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Small craft advisory is in effect late tonight through Friday for all nearshore zones. Southwest winds will increase tonight in advance of approaching low pressure, gusting to 25 knots after midnight. Winds will then shift and increase Friday morning behind a cold front. Some concern that winds could increase to gale force, but thinking is that instability looks too limited by colder lake waters to mix high enough to bring gale force gusts to the surface. This potential will have to be watched. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 A couple swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rain fell Wednesday night, mainly in the Kalamazoo and Muskegon river basins. As a result, some river forecast points may approach or exceed bankfull over the next few days. The greatest chance for rainfall around 1 inch Thursday night appears to be over the Muskegon basin. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for MIZ045-046-051- 052-056>059-064>067-071>074. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for LMZ849. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for LMZ844>848. && $$ UPDATE...Meade SYNOPSIS...MJS SHORT TERM...HLO LONG TERM...Duke AVIATION...Meade HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...HLO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 An increasingly stable boundary layer this evening has caused a shift away for severe storm potential tonight, with coverage of showers now looking scattered to isolated in nature. A cold front is still approaching the area, but the limited instability ahead of the front, and the lack of a strong shortwave trigger, will preclude much in the way of thunderstorm development in central IL. The latest HRRR goes so far as to remove nearly all showery precip the rest of the night. Have worked to diminish coverage and level of PoPs/precip, to trend toward drier conditions in general. The NAM and GFS are still painting a line of showers advancing from west to east across the area later tonight into Friday morning. Cloud cover will be variable, but mostly cloudy conditions should prevail the rest of the night, helping to minimize the diurnal temp falls a bit. Lows are expected in the low to mid 60s, well above seasonal normals. The cold front will push across IL tomorrow morning, bringing cooler air and a wind shift from gusty south winds tonight, to brisk NW winds tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Prolonged precip today associated with a short wave moving through the region well within a warm sector associated with a developing low pressure system out to the west. This afternoon, storms are firing to the north along a warm frontal feature, and the cold front lingers well off to the west. High resolution models still in conflict over evolution of the precip/severe threat through the late afternoon and evening hours. Cannot rule out the potential for another round of precip, but the severe threat is becoming marginalized by not only ongoing showers and convection, but persistent cloud cover extending well back to the southwest on satellite imagery. Keeping the pops in for the overnight in a couple of waves, hinted in the RAP and NAM...less so in the HRRR. Better chance for any severe weather reports will come with the better forcing provided by the cold frontal passage towards dawn. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern with the strongest storms should they develop. Then again, just off the surface at around 2000 ft, southwesterly winds ramp up rather quickly to 40-45kts in the low level jet. Will expect some gusty winds with the showers in the overnight hours. Plenty of cloud cover will inhibit a significant drop in temp and overnight lows will only get into the 60s. Tomorrow, gusts behind the front will keep the morning somewhat blustery, with somewhat drier rather than cooler air moving into the region. By later in the afternoon, high temps will be into the mid-upper 70s, and skies trying to clear by sunset. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Behind the boundary, with the drier air and light winds, a good set up for radiational cooling on Friday night will drop the temps into the 50s. Plenty of sunshine will bring the highs on Saturday back up into the lower 80s with partly cloudy skies. Weak northwesterly flow aloft will result in some cooling at mid levels, and a reinforcing shot of cooler air Sat night. With that, a chance for showers overnight into Saturday...and Sundays highs get held in the mid to upper 70s, still above seasonal normals. Dry weather Monday and Tuesday with temperatures close to normals on Monday, and just a touch warmer for Tuesday as the surface winds pick up more of southerly component. Both the ECMWF and the GFS paint a stormy picture for the latter half of next week as a stronger wave moves into the region from the northwest aloft, with near normal temperatures for early May. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 712 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 MVFR clouds will prevail, despite a break in the showers at the TAF sites early this evening. High resolution guidance shows redevelopment in the warm sector across our western counties by around 02-03z. No strong or vigorous updrafts are expected, but a few thunderstorms could impact the terminal sites. The HRRR shows limited coverage of showers/storms, that last until 08z-09z or so. Despite some thunder potential, we kept the LLWS conditions in the forecast, due to a strong 45kt LLJ advancing across the area overnight. LLWS conditions should dissipate toward 12z. Clouds should improve to VFR from west to east as a cold front pushes across central IL Friday morning. That will also usher in a wind shift from S-SW to NW by late morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1014 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1014 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Widespread showers that had been riding along the mid Mississippi, lower Ohio, and lower Wabash River valleys have almost diminished at this hour. Given that the diminishment is even faster than hi-res model data suggested, have lowered pops down into the low chance range across southern IN and northern KY for the next several hours. The next challenge will be whether or not scattered showers (and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder) develop in the pre-dawn hours through sunrise into our area. We`ll maintain a healthy low level jet through the overnight, but chances for showers and/or a storm should only increase toward dawn as the exit region of an upper impulse noses into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valley regions. Models seem to be struggling with whether or not the added lift and combined low to mid level moisture transport will be enough to spark new development. Getting mixed signals from the operational models (all suggesting precipitation) versus only some of the higher res models suggesting precip. Will maintain chance pops in the pre- dawn hours through the morning, but do have some doubts as to whether this time frame might be trending drier. Day shift also alluded to this so there may be a trend there. Final focus in the short term will then shift to late Friday afternoon and early evening when the cold front finally makes it into the area. If we are able to destabilize ahead of this feature, some scattered storms (perhaps strong?) could quickly drop southeast across the area. && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 The main forecast concerns in the short term are precipitation chances and severe storm threats tonight and Friday. As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed an area of low pressure organizing across central Kansas with its warm front well north of the area into the lower Great Lakes. High pressure was situated off the southeast US. After a morning decaying MCS that moved through parts of southern IN and north central KY, partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailed. Mid afternoon readings were in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The best moisture axis remains just to the west of the area, characterized by dewpoints 65+. This is where an area of showers continues, mainly across western KY and southern IL. Through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours, a mostly dry forecast is expected. Recent trends in the HRRR and other hi-res models show a low potential, mainly along/north of Ohio River and west of I-65. South of there, a warm evening is expected with readings staying in the 70s. Tonight Overnight, the aforementioned low pressure races toward Wisconsin and will bring a cold front toward the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. Some moisture transport along the front interacting with the low level jet overnight may bring scattered showers and storms to the western forecast area by sunrise, then across the entire forecast area during the morning hours. The NAM and GFS are the most aggressive with the QPF, while a lot of the hi-res models such as the WRF ARW, NMM and NSSL WRF along with the ECMWF indicate a lot less QPF. As a result, kept precipitation chances in the 40 to 50 percent range, highest west of I-65 overnight and generally kept thunder chances low. But if the trends shown in the hi-res models continue, then later forecasts may need to adjust precip chances down overnight and Friday morning. Friday Afternoon The main forcing with this system quickly lifts toward New England Friday and the surface front sags through the area during the afternoon. Depending on destabilization and clearing potential during the afternoon, a few thunderstorms may develop across southern IN then track southward into central KY. But the models have backed off on the strength of the shear profiles and instability parameters, so while a few stronger storms are possible, the greater threat for severe weather is northeast of the forecast area. Plan on highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Shower and storm chances will remain low into Friday evening, especially across central KY. .Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Saturday The front from Friday is expected to wash out across the TN/OH Valley Friday night into Saturday. On Saturday, an area of low pressure is forecast to track through the southern Appalachians while a compact upper level low swings through the region. This would bring moisture back into central Kentucky. The big question for Saturday is how far north into Kentucky will showers reach. With the 03.12z deterministic and ensemble guidance, there continues to be an northward trend in the data that warrants precipitation chances at least to the Ohio River. The highest chances for a prolonged area of showers and perhaps thunderstorms continues to be south central Kentucky. It is also worth noting that with the increased rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures were brought down a few more degrees. It may be a cooler day with highs staying in the 60s where rain/clouds are most widespread. And some of the raw gridded guidance suggests readings may not get out of the mid 60s across central Kentucky. Rain will end west to east Saturday evening giving way to a mostly dry conditions overnight. Plan on lows in the lower/middle 50s. Sunday The forecast for Sunday is a bit more uncertain as various models differ on timing the next weather system. The GFS and GEM are much quicker bringing in the next front and shower chances, while the ECMWF holds it off until later Sunday evening. As a result, leaned on the model consensus and kept precipitation chances in the 20-40 percent range. Highs look to top out in the 70s. Weak upper level troughing continues early next week bringing mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures to southern Indiana and central Kentucky. By mid to late week, another upper level trough swings through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley and could bring showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures look to return back to normal or above normal as southerly flow sets back up over the region. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 VFR conditions continue during the overnight hours. Light rain is currently across southern Indiana and west of the Mississippi River. This line of light rain will continue moving east and will slowly weaken as it does. During the overnight period, wind shear is expected from the southwest, 190-230 degrees, at 38-45 knots near 2,000 ft AGL. During the end of the forecast period, a cold front moving in from the northwest will begin to drop ceilings and bring rain showers across the area. For now, Huntingburg is the first to go under VFR conditions, for a short time, just after daybreak. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...BJS Short Term...ZT Long Term...ZT Aviation...KDW
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
943 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 .UPDATE... Regional radar showed rain over central and eastern AR had, for the most part, dissipated with loss of surface heating. KNQA VAD wind profile showed near unidirectional shear, perhaps some backing with height, suggesting little to no warm advection to support elevated shower development. Short term convection-allowing models continued to differ in occurrence and placement of overnight showers and thunderstorms. The RAP model appeared to have a better limiting low end rain chances to areas north of I-40, in the vicinity of perhaps better height falls toward morning. Forecast confidence remains low in anything developing, and have lowered first period PoPs accordingly. Forecast confidence increases with respect to Friday`s storm chances, ahead of more pronounced midlevel height falls late in the afternoon and evening. PWB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/ UPDATE... Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/ DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a slow moving cold front are currently racing across Arkansas. These storms will move into Eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel between 21-23Z(4-6 PM). The convection is expected to be in a weakening phase as it pushes into the area due to the upper ridge that is in place, but can`t rule out an isolated strong to severe storm. The remnants of the line may make it as far east as a Martin to Memphis to Clarksdale line before dissipating. Do not expect much activity after the line diminishes, thus only kept 20-30 POPS for the overnight hours. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. Another round of convection may fire up just after sunrise into the morning hours along the I-40 corridor between Forrest City and Jackson. Meanwhile, expect a larger area of convection, that will be moving out of Texarkana area during the morning hours, to push into the Mid-South during the afternoon hours. This will put a damper on any outdoor activities Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Additional redevelopment will be possible into the overnight hours as the cold front moves into the CWA. An upper trof will then move through the region on Saturday and will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind the trof, high pressure will try to build into the area. However, a secondary back door cold front may kick of some showers and thunderstorms across portions of West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and East Arkansas Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night. Rain-free conditions can be expected for early next week, but by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday Night and Thursday rain chances will return as another upper trof moves into the region. Overall, temperatures will be near normal with highs ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Lows will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s after the weekend. KRM && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Left over convective activity in the form of rain showers may produce a few rain showers at MEM, MKL, JBR this evening. There will be a potential for MVFR ceilings to develop Friday morning at TAF sites. An approaching cold front on Friday will be the focus for VCTS mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. South winds expected between 7-11 kts with a few gusts during the day Friday will veer SW/W with a cold front towards late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
656 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Updated the forecast for the expiration of the Lake Wind Advisory across the rest of the area. Also updated precipitation chances to reflect current trends. Rain showers covering a large part of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois should continue to fizzle through mid evening, leaving behind what is looking more and more like a dry forecast by late evening and perhaps into the overnight. As the cold front approaches late tonight, increasing low level flow ahead of the front could regenerate isolated to scattered mainly elevated convection. As a result, we kept a mention of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the overnight forecast. Will take a look at new model guidance in a few hours, reevaluate, and amend again if necessary. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains unchanged. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Two more MCVs to go this afternoon and evening. One MCV is pushing northeast out of the area this afternoon while the other is approaching from western Arkansas. For the most part there is just a slowly dissipating area of rain associated with the first impulse, but there is some strong to severe elements and more thunder associated with the Arkansas impulse. Portions of Carter, Ripley, Butler and Wayne counties in southeast Missouri have already received 2 to 3 inches of rainfall today. The overall trend is for the Arkansas system to weaken significantly as it approaches and eventually reaches our area, but as it arrives into those especially water-logged areas of southeast Missouri, it may still have a few heavier convective elements. We will have to monitor closely for some flooding issues there, but no issues have been reported as of yet. The latest HRRRs are basically wiping the Arkansas system out over our region by 00Z or 01Z this evening. Given how worked over the environment is here, confidence in a major weakening trend is rather high. This forecast is headed that way, but may be a bit slow overall with respect to the latest HRRR output. Later tonight the overall trend in the 12Z and later guidance is drier. The HRRRs and WRFs keep the area virtually dry overnight, as the main portion of the upper-level system lifts into the Great Lakes region. The larger-scale models still generate some convection mainly along and south of the Ohio River after 06Z. Whatever develops overnight will lift northeast out of west Kentucky Friday morning. The cold front is still forecast to move through the area Friday as the remaining portion of the upper trough continues to shear out just to our northwest and north. Wind fields will be weaker and unidirectional, but if we are able to warm up enough the SBCAPE may reach 2000J/kg. Figure we will see some scattered convection along the cold front in the afternoon with greatest coverage across southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile. The forecast shear will not support rotating updrafts, but a few storms may pulse up to near-severe levels with a hail and damaging wind concern. Temperatures will be very mild tonight. High temperatures Friday will be highly dependent on clouds and precipitation, but we are not expecting a non-diurnal trend behind the cold front. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 What is most certain in the remainder of the 7-day forecast period is that the mid level flow pattern will remain quite active and dynamic. The finer details in the deterministic medium range models were a little harder to come by, but manageable, especially after the 12Z ECMWF came in. The ECENES/GEFS means suggested that a northern stream shortwave will depart the eastern CONUS early, followed by a slower one in the southern stream early in the weekend, and a phased shortwave trof late in the weekend/early next week. The mid level pattern over the eastern CONUS is progged to split again early next week ahead of a substantial trof diving east-southeastward from the Pacific Northwest. This trof should affect the eastern CONUS late in the forecast period. As cooler air near the surface attempts to filter in Fri night/Sat, cloud cover is expected to be quite prevalent due to a surface wave that may develop along the retreating cold front in the vicinity of the southern Pennyrile region of KY. Shower activity should slowly wane from northwest to southeast during the day Sat. Sat night and Sun morning should be clear to partly cloudy under weak high pressure. Limited PoPs do return, however, by Sun afternoon, lingering into Sun night as the aforementioned phased shortwave and surface cold front surges through the PAH forecast area. QPF appeared light due to limited moist return flow. There may be enough instability for isolated lightning strikes. The forecast looks mostly clear and dry for us until midweek under slackening flow aloft and general high pressure at the surface, as the flow aloft splits just to our east. Toward the end of the forecast period (Wed/Thu), the Pacific Northwest trof and attendant surface low are progged to move into the upper Midwest. Our region will be in the warm sector most of the time, with scattered showers increasing from the west Wed and becoming perhaps a bit more common Thu. Lightning will be possible mainly during the daytime hours. Temps are expected to be AOA seasonable averages through the period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 Areas of rain with some mvfr conditions will gradually dissipate early this evening. Primarily vfr conditions are expected tonight. Low level southwest winds will remain quite strong, and low level wind shear is forecast at some sites. Toward morning, widespread mvfr cigs are forecast to move into our region. There may also be scattered showers. The mvfr cigs will be persistent much of the day along and ahead of a cold front. Isolated to scattered tsra will develop ahead of the front. Late in the afternoon, the winds will shift to northwest across se Missouri, srn Illinois, and sw Indiana as the front passes. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...MY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
910 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A Bermuda high pressure system will extend into the Carolinas through Friday. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest late Friday and then slowly move across the area on Saturday, then reach the coast on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 910 PM Thursday... Deep ridging extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico stretches across the Southeast and into the mid Atlantic tonight. Thin, patchy high clouds will spill over the ridge, but will have minimal impact on temperatures. A light southwest wind will persist overnight, keeping us mixed to result in mild conditions with lows from 58 to 63 - 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Thursday... The narrow ridge axis across the Southeast will break down as an elongated upper trough slowly moves east across the Ohio and Tennesse Valleys. The air mass across central NC will moisten through Friday night, a subsident regime will result in dry conditions. High clouds will continue to increase on Friday with a more notable increase in mid and with even lower level moisture from the west on Friday night. Low level thickness values will increase another few meters but the warming column will be mitigated in part by more diffuse sunshine. Highs will range in the in the mid to upper 80s. Lows ahead of the front with cloud cover and a stirring wind will be mild and range in the mid 60s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... A slow-moving cold front will approach from the west on Saturday as a mid-level trough crosses the TN Valley. Meanwhile, a closed upper trough crossing eastern and central Cuba will send a plume of deep moisture northward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge out over the Atlantic. While the moisture with the latter feature is progged to stay to our east, the moisture assoc with the cold front approaching from the west will move into our northern and western zones as early as Saturday morning, particularly north of the I-85 corridor. This is a bit earlier in the day than recent model runs. South of the I-85 corridor, look for dry weather on Saturday. Rain chances will further increase Saturday evening and night as the cold front moves in to the Triad region. Then on Sunday, the rain chances will gradually shift eastward as the front moves across the state. Early next week, another short wave trailing the weekend`s weather systems will cross the SE states. While that system may bring another chance for rain to our area, right now it appears that the best chances will be to our west and south. We`ll have a brief break in the weather during the middle of the week, but then another short wave will approach for the latter portion of the week. Regarding temps...the above normal readings will continue on Saturday, but then will drop back to near-normal through the rest of the forecast period due to the series of troughs crossing our region coupled with increased cloud cover and rain chances.&& .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 807 PM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Widespread VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will continue throughout the beginning of the 24 hour TAF period. The NAM, HRRR, and RAP still indicate the possibility for a very brief period of MVFR ceilings across the far Southern Coastal Plain before sunrise Friday morning that should remain southeast of the KFAY terminal. Winds from the southwest will decrease overnight to around 5kts before increasing back to 10kts with gusts approaching 20kts late Friday morning and afternoon. Upper level clouds will increase in coverage late Friday afternoon through the evening hours across the Piedmont as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Long Term: Cloud cover will increase throughout Friday, becoming more widespread on Saturday. Spotty showers will be possible late Saturday with increasing precipitation chances through Monday as a cold front slowly progresses through the area. Conditions will gradually improve on Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...mlm/BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...SEM/mlm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1102 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018 .AVIATION... Only very light returns are being detected by radar across NE TX into SW AR attm and latest short term progs suggest that is pretty much all we will see through sunrise. Should see returning MVFR ceilings overnight however and cannot rule out some IFR ceilings as well across our NE TX terminal locations. A cold front will make quick progress through our airspace during the day Friday and with it will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tried to show a slow but steady improvement with daytime ceilings on Friday even with the thunderstorms along the cold front with showers and embedded thunder even possible behind the cold front Friday Afternoon into Friday Evening. S to SE winds near 10kts or so overnight will quickly shift to the NW in the wake of the boundary during the day Friday with speeds near 10kts with some higher gusts. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/ UPDATE... Showers and thunderstorms diminished quickly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Southwest flow aloft is real dirty but mainly across our west and northwest zones and with the new 00z progs coming in with not much in the way of additional development overnight including the HRRR, went ahead and lowered pops across our western half for the remainder of the evening. The rain has caused hourly temps to fall slightly below our overnight forecast mins so had to make this adjustment as well even though these temperatures will likely remain stationary for the remainder of the night or cloud climb slightly with low level cloud cover expected to expand northward once again tonight. All other grids are in good shape so no additional changes are necessary attm. Updated zone package out shortly...13. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/ AVIATION... Persistent broken line of showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to affect the TYR and TXK terminals attm. Storm movement is more north than east so confidence is not real strong on this activity moving into our remaining terminals this evening into the overnight hours despite what the HRRR and NAM12 output suggests. For that reason, have left out any mention of weather in our remaining terminals until near or after sunrise on Friday. A cold front will be moving into our region from the north and west with additional showers and thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of this frontal boundary. MVFR ceilings/VSBYS will be possible with what convection is currently ongoing with occasional IFR ceilings and VSBYS as well. Otherwise, we should see a return to MVFR ceilings areawide later tonight ahead of the convection into the predawn hours on Friday with these ceilings slowly rising to near VFR conditions outside broken convection on Friday. Have also added a wind shift from southerly to northwesterly during the daytime hours across our terminal locations to account for the frontal passage. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 77 62 80 / 10 70 60 20 MLU 67 80 64 79 / 0 40 70 40 DEQ 65 73 56 82 / 50 50 20 10 TXK 68 72 58 78 / 60 50 30 10 ELD 69 77 60 79 / 20 40 60 20 TYR 70 74 59 80 / 40 80 40 10 GGG 69 74 60 80 / 30 80 60 10 LFK 70 80 62 80 / 10 80 60 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 13/13/13