Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/25/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
840 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching low pressure system will bring rain tonight into Wednesday. Rain will taper off to showers Wednesday and then gradually diminish Wednesday night into Thursday. Another system will yield a good chance of rain Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 842 PM update... The models continue to be too aggressive advecting precipitation into a very dry airmass, indicated by dew points in the 30s. We slowed the advance of the precipitation into our counties early this evening by a few additional hours. Precipitation should fill in as humidity rises in the lower atmosphere late this evening. The latest grid update has been sent. 3 PM update... Mid and high clouds making some progress into the area this afternoon well ahead of the rain and the center of the storm. Clouds weren`t fast enough to slow the temperatures making it into the mid and upper 60s and lower 70s. At low levels still dry with the rain across western NY and central PA. Rain is making slow progress and will only get into the far west and southwest early evening, then to most of the CWA by midnight. The stacked low moving northeast out of the Carolinas will channel Atlantic moisture northwest into the area ahead of it. Steady rain will be over the area late tonight into Wednesday then start to lift northeast. The rain will be slow to end as the northern and southern streams try to phase over our area late Wed. Wed night the remaining wrap around rain showers lift northeast into mostly CNY by sunrise. Rainfall amounts are similar with half an inch to an inch across most of the area. 1 to 1.5 inches possible in the upslope regions of the southern Catskills to the Poconos. The entire area has now had several days of dry weather so this amount of rain over a long period shouldn`t be an issue. Thunderstorms should stay along the coast. Over our area low and mid levels will be saturated and stable. Temperatures closer to normal with lows in the 40s both night and highs Wednesday in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper low pulls east into western New England on Thursday. Instability and cool air will result in scattered showers with below normal temperatures. Brief ridging on Thursday night into early Friday ahead of a fast moving low. Significant differences exist in the models with the EURO dry Friday while the NAM/GFS bring showers across the area as the low shears apart. With continued upper trofiness, better chance that there will be a few showers than none so have included chance pops during the day Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long wave trof will be over the area for the weekend keeping cool air and unsettled weather for the region. Best chance for showers will be on Saturday as a short wave rotates through the trof enhancing the instability. Drier air and some ridging arrives for Sunday and Monday. Expect temperatures to return to near of slightly below normal on Monday as the air mass modifies and heights build aloft. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 800 PM Update...Mid and high level clouds have now overspread the forecast area. CIGS will gradually lower this evening (5-10k ft agl) with rain showers also developing from southwest to northeast between about 01z - 06z. Occasional MVFR CIGS or VIS may impact the taf sites later this evening into the first part of the overnight as rain continues to overspread the region. Fuel alternate CIGS are forecast to develop very late tonight into Wednesday morning at most sites. Confidence is lower during the day on Wednesday, as model guidance differs on where the steadier rain will track. Leaned toward the wetter, further west solutions of the HRRR, RAP and ECMWF for now. This could bring additional periods of fuel alternate or borderline IFR CIGS and/or VIS to the taf sites into Wednesday afternoon. A front will slowly work its way through the area from NW to SE later Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Behind this front winds shift out of the NW with ample low level moisture present for BR and continued restrictions. South-southeast winds 8 to 15 kts this evening should shift more east-southeast overnight, decreasing between 5 to 10 kts. Winds become light and variable for a time Wednesday afternoon a slow moving front approaches. Winds turn northwest early Wednesday evening behind this front...less than 10 kts. Outlook... Wednesday night into Thursday morning...Restrictions likely with rain showers. High confidence. Thursday afternoon and Thursday night...Generally VFR. Moderate confidence. Friday to Saturday night...Some restrictions possible in periods of rain showers. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. Moderate confidence. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
950 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 949 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 Upper level low will continue to move slowly eastward overnight. Plenty of low level cloud cover will be seen along with scattered areas of light rain and drizzle. Main area of drizzle and light rain will be found across the west late this evening and this should shift into the eastern sections overnight. Overnight lows in the lower 50s still look good for tonight. Did a quick refresh of the short term grids. This resulted in very little change to the overall forecast. && .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 340 pM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 The upper low that has persisted the last couple of days across central Kentucky is becoming more disorganized this afternoon (less vertically stacked in nature). There is a diffuse middle and upper level circulation centered between Bowling Green and Glasgow Kentucky with the main surface low displaced over South Carolina with an inverted trough extending northward into eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. There has been some entrainment of drier air from the south and southeast around this circulation that may help overturn some lower level higher theta-e air. Given the sharp vorticity gradients and potential for some insolation, will keep the small mention of thunderstorms across the southeast part of the WFO LMK forecast area. There has been intermittent moderate rain showers over parts of Monroe and Cumberland counties near the Kentucky-Tennessee border, but updrafts have not been organized enough to support charge separation for thunderstorm development at this time. The potential will still be there through this afternoon. Anticipate a diurnal downturn in convective activity late this afternoon and this evening. Persistent cloud cover and light winds tonight will limit any significant drop in temperatures overnight and mitigate any fog development. Going into Wednesday, the upper low will be slow to move along the mid-Atlantic coast. With high pressure slowly building in, steering currents will be too weak to completely scour out the deeper layer moisture. Will keep skies mostly cloudy for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The diurnal amplification around the upper low should support some isolated showers along the eastern edge of the WFO LMK forecast area. No real significant changes made in the short term from the previous package. The NAM-WRF and RAP guidance seem to have a good fit on the convective trends associated with the upper low this afternoon and this evening. .Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 An upper level shortwave diving through the Central Plains/Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will skirt through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. As this shortwave moves southeast, it will amplify across the southeast U.S., bringing some moisture and enough instability northward to generate some showers for mainly the southern 1/2 of central Kentucky mainly Thursday and Thursday evening. Another progressive, but weaker shortwave will follow on the heels of the aforementioned shortwave (that is forecast to produce showers on Thursday) leading to a small chance for rain on Friday afternoon. Any shower development will likely occur during the peak heating/greatest potential for instability associated with the shortwave. Beyond Friday, and through the remainder of the forecast period, large scale high pressure is expected to dominate the region. This will finally allow the region to dry out and bring temperatures closer to seasonal normals expected in late April and early May. In addition to the regionally blended model guidance initialization, the ECMWF and Canadian numerical guidance was preferred for the longer range forecast solution with respect to temperatures and weather. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 758 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 Upper level low pressure will slowly make its way eastward, with plenty of low clouds plaguing the airports into Wednesday morning. Ceiling heights should mostly start out in the low MVFR ranges below fuel-alternate, then find their way down to IFR in the pre-dawn hours. The exception is LEX which will find it`s way down to IFR shortly after sunset, and possibly down toward minimums through the overnight. Also wanted to mention the fog potential at BWG/HNB toward dawn. Cloud cover could be thinner in these areas and could promote enough radiational cooling to promote some fog. Didn`t go as pessimistic as some of the guidance suggests, but did take conditions a bit in the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, conditions slowly improve through the day tomorrow with a return to VFR possible by late afternoon/early evening. Winds should be steady out of the NW through this cycle. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update.......MJ Short Term...WFO PAH Long Term....WFO PAH Aviation.....BJS
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
756 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .UPDATE... A couple things, first strong north winds behind the cold front are developing another column of counties east of the currently advised column. We added the column from Castro County southward through Lamb, Hockley, and Terry Counties. Second, convective activity continues to develop westward along the frontal boundary. Short term solutions struggling a bit with this activity. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/ AVIATION... Nearby strong to severe thunderstorm just east-southeast of KLBB at the start of this TAF. Solutions agree that activity will pull gradually east of KLBB but we retained a VCTS at KLBB for a few more hours. Cumulus field near KCDS and KPVW doesn`t appear bubbling much and solutions keep convection away for much of the evening anyway, so removed VCTS for the evening at these sites. Cold front also moving southward and we timed arrival close to the latest HRRR trends - a little quicker than the previous set - and also upped wind speeds. Low cloud deck and increasing showers coverage later tonight also timed a little more closely to HRRR trends though this will likely need adjustment by if not earlier than the next TAF issuance. Mostly MVFR seems favored but deck may drop near 1000 feet briefly later tonight at both KLBB and KPVW. So, forecast will try to remain fluid to this quickly changing environment and we will adjust to the confident trends we see during the evening. RMcQueen PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/ DISCUSSION... Dynamic weather remains on tap through the night with the potential for a low end severe event early this evening, gusty post-frontal winds, and a more widespread precipitation overnight. The forecast area remains just downstream from a low amplitude upper level ridge that is centered over New Mexico while further north from the Great Salt Lake to South Dakota lies an upper level trough with a closed low at its eastern end near the South Dakota/Nebraska line. During the next 24 hours or so the upper ridge will squeezed westward by the upper trough toward a higher amplitude ridge that will form over the Great Basin toward southern California. The upper trough/low will rotate to the south-southeast across the central Plains on Wednesday exiting toward the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow evening while upstream another trough takes shape over the Dakotas. In the very near term the focus remains on thunderstorm potential with the possibility of some isolated severe. Surface analysis and radar imagery clearly showing a low near Brownfield with north winds to the west and northwest of Lubbock, hot and dry southwest winds to the southwest of the low and more backed and humid flow to the east and northeast of the low. The expected convective temperature of 88F seems to be working out well with elevated radar echoes developing with cumulus congestus southwest of Lubbock. CAM`s have been consistent with developing this convection into thunderstorms as they move into better low level moisture vicinity Tahoka to Post then progressing it in a general eastward direction with potential for a northeasterly directed storm split and potential for supercell development southern Rolling Plains as indicated by progged Supercell Composite values in excess of 4 from SPC analysis pages. Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible particularly early in with the high-based echoes, transitioning to more of a hail threat as storms hit better moisture. However, of note is that for now surface moisture is under-performing relative to the model progs by a few degrees Fahrenheit. This will have some ramifications on CAPE, but mixed level values should still exceed 1000 J/kg in this area of concern. About the time the thunder winds down (02-04Z) a strong cold front that is located across the northern Texas Panhandle mid- afternoon will push quickly through the forecast area with 20-30 mph expected. There is a good chance of slightly higher wind speeds along the NM state line correlated with strongest progged post-frontal pressure rises. Will issue a Wind Advisory for most of the night there. The third issue of the night is additional precipitation potential. The upper trough/low to our north will move southward bringing its own mid level moisture with. Model progs support robust isentropic lift over the frontal surface in advance of the upper trough. This will lead to increasing showers across the forecast area, still favoring the eastern half of the forecast area, but also the possibility of extending toward eastern New Mexico. Of interest is the amount of elevated instability progged to develop after 06z with some indications of CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg supporting the idea of additional thunder late tonight. Isentropic lift and mid level moisture will move quickly eastward after sunrise Wednesday with precip ending from NW to SE followed by clearing in a similar direction later in the morning. Beyond Wednesday things do not look nearly as dynamic. The next upper trough mentioned above will drive a cold front into the region Thursday afternoon or evening, but the window for any meaningful low level moisture return looks negligible and have pulled precip mention. Heading into the weekend the upper trough across the eastern CONUS is replaced by ridging with increased cyclonic flow across the western CONUS, the Pacific NW initially, building southward Monday. This pattern will bring the potential for diurnally-driven dryline type convection possibly as early as Saturday but with a bit better confidence Saturday through Tuesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ021-022-027-028- 033-034-039-040. && $$ 05/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
743 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are currently present over all of the TAF sites with light winds out of the south. Expect a cold front to move through around 03z for KHOB and KCNM and later for other sites. Winds will shift to the north, and low clouds with MVFR conditions are expected behind the front. Have not included them in the TAFs, but chances for storms will increase behind the front with MAF and INK having the greatest chance. Ceilings will improve by 18z and winds will drop off closer to sundown. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/ DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Tuesday...It looks like we will get four...four letter words weather for the next several days. We will get some "rain"..."cool" temps..."wind"...and maybe some "dust" to go along with the wind. Early this evening we can get some convection firing up along a weak moisture gradient in the Eastern PB/Low Rolling Plains per the hi-res HRRR and RAP13. KMAF radar is also showing a few echoes over the southern mountains. There is the possibility of strong/severe storms in the northeast CWA...model soundings for Snyder indc a pretty pronounced inverted V sounding indicating the possibility of strong/severe winds with any convection. A shortwave moving thru the Plains will send a strong cold front thru the CWA tonight. Models are indc strong Gap winds thru GDP tonight/Wed morning. MOS Guidance usually over forecasts the winds so knocked them down a bit. Have also issued a Wind Advisory for the SE New Mexico Plains for the same time period...but it looks like a marginal event. Regardless...pilots should avoid flying over the Guadalupe Mountains tonight and Wednesday morning due to extreme hazardous flying conditions. Wednesday will be significantly cooler with temps 20-25 degrees below normal. There is a chance of showers with a slight chc of thunder chances in the east. Drier and warmer weather is in store for the area on Thursday. For the extended tended to broadbrush the forecast with slight chc pops Friday into early next week..with temps a little cooler than normal...warming to a little above normal early next week. The GFS is wetter with a deeper and faster trof moving thru the Western US...with a deep southerly flow over the Southern Plains early/middle portions of next week. The ECMWF is a little slower. Depending how deep the trof is we might be able to get some low level return flow from the Gulf the middle of next week...but that`s a long way off. Strobin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 50 57 43 78 / 50 50 10 0 Carlsbad 50 63 46 85 / 20 20 10 10 Dryden 66 70 49 80 / 30 40 10 0 Fort Stockton 55 60 46 84 / 10 50 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 44 55 47 75 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 45 60 44 79 / 30 30 10 10 Marfa 54 59 43 80 / 20 30 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 50 58 44 79 / 50 50 10 0 Odessa 50 58 44 79 / 50 40 10 0 Wink 52 60 46 82 / 30 40 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County. TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ 99/99/04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
757 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 ...Generally quiet weather in short term... WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a split flow pattern with an upstream northern stream shortwave trough from nw Ontario into northern MN. At the surface, a cold front extended from northern Ontario into western Lake Superior and central MN. Mid-high clouds have been on the increase this afternoon across Upper Michigan ahead of the shortwave and associated cold front. A few sfc obs over east central MN and nw WI have reported isolated showers/sprinkles along the front. With a northerly flow across the area temps have been cooler today ranging from the mid 40s west to the lower to mid 60s south central. Tonight, Maintained slight chance pops late afternoon/this evening as forcing from the passing shortwave and associated cold front work across the area, but again shower coverage will be isolated with only light precipitation expected as model soundings show dry low levels in place. Model soundings suggest that skies will clear from west to east during the evening with drier air moving in. However, upslope northerly flow aided by some lake moisture could support some stratocu clouds north central late. Friday, Cold advection upslope northerly flow will continue to support some lower clouds into north central counties in the morning, but otherwise expect mostly sunny skies. With continued northerly flow expect highs ranging from around 40F near Lake Superior shore to lower to mid 50s south central and interior west. Daytime minimum RHs could lower close to 20 pct over the interior west along the WI border, but with fairly light winds and relatively cool temps expected, fire weather concerns should be minimal. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 The next week or so looks to be our version of spring before we swing into a summer-like pattern with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s with periodic chances for precipitation (dare I say thunderstorms?) However, we`ll have to get through couple of days of colder temperatures and maybe even some light snow before pulling out the shorts. First thing is first...A cold front is expected to swing through the upper Great Lakes Thursday afternoon and evening ushering in relatively colder air compared to the past few days. Numerical model guidance paints anywhere from a trace to 0.25" of QPF along the front with the GFS most "heavy." Given antecedent conditions (as well as the mostly dry cold front coming through today), the inclination is to keep qpf low--generally less than 0.05" area wide. As for precipitation type, light rain is expected to transition to light snow (if not heavy flurries) as colder and drier air filters in along the backside of the front. No snow accumulations are expected. The biggest impact of the frontal passage will likely be strong north to northeasterly winds gusting over 30-35 mph Thursday evening and into early Friday morning across the west and north central shores of Lake Superior. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s before the front sweeps though. A secondary shortwave trough and associated compact low pressure system will sneak into the area Friday with a narrow ribbon of anywhere from a 0.05" to 0.15" of QPF. Earlier model runs indicated mainly light rain along the northwestern side of the low but 850 mb temperatures/max wet bulb temperatures may hover at if not just below freezing leading to a mix of rain and snow. To make matters a bit more complicated, forecast soundings indicate a layer of dry air (max dew point depressions of 11 C or so) from about 850 mb down to the surface as the main forcing from the low passes through. All in all, there is low confidence in just how much precipitation will make it to the ground. As such, kept QPF fairly low in the grids for now to give time to iron out the details. Saturday looks quiet and dry with highs in the forties along the Lake Superior shore to lower fifties along the Wisconsin border. The real warm up begins on Sunday as deep upper-level ridge builds into lower central Canada enabling broad southwesterly low- to mid- level flow across the western Great Lakes. Monday and Tuesday look quite warm with 850 mb temperatures shooting up to +10-12 C, giving way to highs in the low to mid 70s (if not warmer) and lows in the lower 40s. Model guidance also depicts dew points increasing quite a bit owing to the aforementioned southwesterly flow. By and large the warmer and moister conditions will start the vanishing act of the remaining snowpack across Upper Michigan. The big question is just how long the upper-level ridge will last (especially for fire weather concerns). A quick peak at a northern hemispheric perspective of the forecast upper-level flow next week reveals that a pair of cut-off lows off the western and eastern CONUS *should* keep the wave train moving aided by a shortwave trough in between. However, it would not be surprising for the ridge to move slower than currently depicting in the models (as they often do). Even so, when the shortwave trough embedded in the longwave pattern pushes into the Great Lakes, the expectation is that at least portions of the area may get in on heavier precipitation which, when combined with snow melt, may cause some minor river flooding problems. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 756 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 Band of -ra following a cold front will pass across KSAW in the next hr, but not expecting conditions to fall out of VFR. Satellite imagery reveals stratocu extending nw across Lake Superior into adjacent northern Ontario. These clouds will pass across KCMX this evening and probably KSAW late tonight/Wed morning. Cloud bases are likely to range from 3500-5000ft, but there is a small chance MVFR cigs could occur at KSAW. Under a dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals during the day Sun. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 Northwest winds will increase to 20-25 knots over central and eastern Lake Superior late this afternoon into this evening and then diminish overnight. Wednesday through Thursday, winds are expected to remain below 20 knots across all of Lake Superior. Winds will then pick up to 20 to 30 knots Thursday night with the passage of another cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 After a 24-hour period of highs in the lower 70s and lows in the low to mid 30s (e.g. above freezing), the snow pack has lost 3-5 inches across much of Upper Michigan. The snow pack will continue to melt today but at a slower pace mostly driven by the sun (when not blocked by clouds). Most rivers across Upper Michigan have seen manageable rises in water levels thus far, except for a minor ice jam reported on the Ford river in Escanaba that has since broken apart. Precipitation chances over the next several days look somewhat bleak (collectively less than 0.25"). However, temperatures next week will increase dramatically with an accompanying increase in moisture likely leading to a rapid decrease in snow cover across the area. There are indications of heavier precipitation toward the middle to end of next week, though uncertainly remains on exactly where and how much will fall. All in all, the snow pack is expected to shrink considerably next week which may lead to minor river flooding in the usual rivers prone to spring flooding. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...Borchardt AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...Voss HYDROLOGY...Borchardt