Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/16/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1033 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front continues moving toward the coast and will move
offshore by the early morning hours. Overnight high pressure
along with cooler and drier air will begin building into the
region with dry weather expected Monday through Wednesday. A
moisture limited cold front will cross the region Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Precipitation is now just exiting the Pee Dee and eastern
Midlands late this evening with a cold front pushing through the
central Midlands. As front moves through the area late this
evening, winds will pick up again as cold advection develops.
Strong winds expected on area lakes overnight with 30 to 40
knots at 2000 ft and some mixing. Will continue lake wind
advisory overnight into Monday. As drier air begins moving in
expect some clouds to dissipate especially toward daybreak.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A dry westerly flow associated with ridging along the Gulf Coast
will dominate through Wednesday. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and low pressure well to the north combined with
mixing will result in breezy conditions during the days. The NAM
and GFS Bufkit momentum transfer tool suggests gusts 20 to 25
knots. Followed a guidance consensus for the high temperature
forecast. Leaned toward the higher low temperature guidance
because of mixing. Lake wind advisory until 800 pm with gusty
winds to near 30 mph in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The medium-range models indicate dry conditions with ridging
mainly dominating through Saturday. Little moisture is depicted
with a cold front Thursday. Moisture may increase Sunday in an
onshore flow and ahead of a frontal system. The GFS and ECMWF
ensemble mean supports pops less than 20 percent through
Saturday and 20 to 30 percent Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally low confidence in cig restrictions due to proximity
of upper trough.
Cold front beginning to move into Midlands late this evening.
The heaviest precipitation has moved east of the TAF sites.
Still expecting wind speeds to remain a bit elevated into the
overnight hours. Biggest challenge will be cigs. Both 12Z NAM
and GFS BUFKIT time sections showing lots of low-level moisture
across the area overnight into the afternoon hours on Monday.
However, latest HRRR model indicating little in the way of any
cigs overnight into the daytime hours Monday. Accordingly, cig
forecast is somewhat on the low side. Strong winds with
occasional gusts should hinder very low cigs, so MVFR cigs look
most likely. If enough downsloping occurs, would expect cloud
deck breaking up to some extent. However, mainly SW to W sfc
winds overnight into Monday are not usually not conducive to
good downsloping conditions. Anticipate cigs mostly at the MVFR
level at all TAF sites until around 13Z Monday. May see more
clouds at CAE/CUB/OGB after sunrise Monday than at AGS/DNL due
to proximity of the upper trough swinging through the region. As
a result, thinking VFR cigs at CAE/CUB/OGB for much of
tomorrow, with scattered cloud decks at AGS/DNL, but confidence
is not great. Winds will again remain strong and gusty for much
of daytime hours on Monday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Strong and gusty winds expected
through Monday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ040-063>065-
077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
958 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.DISCUSSION...
The forecast is in good shape tonight with no major changes
needed. Onshore flow will resume tonight, which will keep temps
up a several degrees compared to last night. Temps look on track
with lows in upper 40s over the Victoria Crossroads, 50s elsewhere
inland, and low 60s along the immediate coast.
Hourly wx grids were cleaned up to match latest trends. Updated
products all ready sent.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/
DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00z aviation.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at the South
Texas terminals. Southeasterly winds will increase on Monday with
gusts in excess of 20 knots during the afternoon.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...
Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM that the upper pattern
will be progressive with the upper disturbance over the Midwest/
Mississippi Valley moving EWD across the ERN CONUS while another
upper system entering then moves across the WRN CONUS. The foregoing
will favor a transition to onshore flow over the CWA/MSA by
tonight/Monday. In response to onshore flow, the NAM deterministic
predict near surface saturation/light sfc wind 09z-12z Monday
over portions of the CNTRL/ERN CWA. Yet, not confident that fog
will develop given very low SREF visibility probabilities. Not as
cool tonight as near surface moisture modulates radiational
cooling. PWAT values expected to remain well below normal during
the period (NAM deterministic) and thus no precipitation expected.
A gradual warming trend expected Monday/Monday night (GFS
deterministic 1000-500mb thickness values.)
MARINE (Tonight through Monday night)...
Expect onshore flow to increase to moderate to strong levels
Monday night as the surface low deepens over the Southern Plains.
An SCA may be needed Monday night for the coastal waters.
FIRE WEATHER (Tonight through Monday night)...
Will not upgrade the Fire Weather Watch, currently in effect for
LaSalle/Webb/Duval Monday, given lack of high confidence that wind
speeds will reach the critical threshold. Deterministic HiRes NMM,
NAM, and GFS predictions suggest with wind will barely approach
Fire Weather Warning threshold. Will defer to later shifts given
greater accuracy/skill of deterministic output for the 18z Monday-
00z Tuesday period and inclusion of RAP deterministic output for
that period.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Long term period begins with continued quiet weather as upper level
ridge remains in place over the region. Onshore flow will increase
Tuesday with small craft advisory conditions likely continuing.
Moisture will be a bit slower to come back than we have seen lately
with mid 60s dewpoints not expected into the coastal counties until
Tuesday evening. A cold front will approach the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday associated with an upper level disturbance well to
the north. This front should stall north of the area, only veering
winds in South Texas to the east. The front will interrupt the
steady onshore flow and bring lighter winds to the area mid-week.
With only limited moisture return ahead of the front, do not expect
any mentionable pops ahead of the boundary, but will eventually get
a tap of moisture from the south into Thursday to begin rain
chances. A deeper upper level trough moves into the central US late
week and into the weekend bringing another boundary down. This one
looks like it should have enough support to move through South
Texas. Additionally, enough moisture should have pooled ahead of the
front this time to bring higher end chance pops. Expect warming
temps Tuesday and Wednesday with highs back into the 90s west, then
more seasonal temperatures later in the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 57 80 64 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Victoria 48 79 59 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Laredo 57 88 63 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 53 84 60 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Rockport 63 76 69 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cotulla 52 87 59 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
Kingsville 55 83 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 10
Navy Corpus 65 78 69 83 71 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
For the following zones: Duval...La Salle...Webb.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1032 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will sweep through the region tonight and
early Monday. Much cooler weather will follow through the middle
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MRMS RALA shows shield of moderate rain has overspread the
western half of the forecast area at 02Z, while just spotty
light rain/drizzle noted over eastern Pa.
Maddox synoptic type heavy rain event shaping up tonight, as
negative tilt upper trough pivots east, preceded by a strong
southerly low level jet with v-wind anomalies in the 3-4SD
range and associated plume of anomalous PWATS with origins over
the Gulf of Mexico. GEFS MClimate data showing 12hr qpf
exceeding model climatology over a good portion of southern Pa.
A blend of latest model data supports a widespread 1-2 inch
rainfall. However, latest HRRR runs and earlier convection-
allowing HREFV2 support the potential of localized amounts in
excess of 3 inches. The heaviest rain will likely fall late
tonight and early Monday morning in association with embedded
elevated convection/tsra. Have included the chance of thunder
over roughly the southeast half of the forecast area based on
model CAPEs. Based on collaboration with LWX, have held off on a
flood watch. Current thinking is that any flooding will be
isolated in nature due to relatively dry antecedent conditions.
However, will monitor closely for possible need to issue.
The back edge of the steady rain should be coming into the
southwest portion of the forecast area by dawn, as cold(occluded)
front moves through.
Based on current mesonet observations, believe a bit of fzra is
possible over the highest terrain of northeast Schuylkill
County late this evening. However, given the isolated nature of
the threat and road temps well above freezing, do not anticipate
any headlines.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Latest models indicate the extreme southeast part of the
forecast area (Lancaster Co) may break into the warm sector
between 12Z-15Z Monday morning, introducing the threat of
severe wx. Strong winds aloft and marginal sfc-based CAPE noted
in the models, hence the marginal risk of severe wx in this area
from SPC.
For most of the area, Monday will see us transitioning into a
gusty and colder NW flow behind the departing surface wave and
cold front. Steady rain will exit the eastern counties early,
but lingering rain showers are expected in association with
passage of upper trough. Over the Alleghenies, the rain showers
will likely mix with snow showers toward evening. However, temps
too warm to support any accums.
Highs in the 40s over most of the area will be some 10-15 deg
colder than normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On the back side of the strong front crossing the state Sunday
night and early Monday, we will see yet another return to colder
than normal weather and even a couple of opportunities for snow
showers. The first chance for snow showers will be Monday night
and early Tuesday as the upper low swings through to our north.
Another system may bring more snow showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. We don`t expect any significant accumulations, but as
we enter mid April, the prospects for snow are less than
welcome.
Past Thursday we foresee a break of dry weather into early next
weekend as energy reloads over the southwestern U.S. allowing
weak upper ridging to build over the eastern part of the
country. Yet another upper low in this busy pattern looks to
drop into the deep south toward the end of the period...possibly
spreading some precipitation toward our region for the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Gusty winds and LLWS will be the main problems overnight,
as a tight pressure gradient is present between a cold high
pressure system to the northeast and low pressure to the west
and south. Very strong frontal inversion remains in place.
Some bands of rain to the west, will continue to move eastward
overnight.
Small band of thunderstorms over central VA, but very cold air
at the lowest 5000 feet, hard to see much thunder in our area,
so left out of the 00Z TAFS.
Conditions should improve later on Monday, as the cold front
moves east of the area.
Outlook...
Mon...Rain will taper to showers W to E. MVFR/IFR early trending
VFR PM central/eastern 2/3. Rain/snow showers and sub-VFR cigs
continue western 1/3 into Mon night.
Tue...MVFR ceilings western 1/3 with lingering rain/snow
showers. VFR elsewhere.
Wed-Fri...Chance of rain/snow showers with sub VFR most likely
NW 1/2.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected Sunday night into Monday
morning and will result in significant rises on area rivers and
streams. Latest guidance has trended a bit lower on total
rain/QPF and shifted the axis of heaviest rain slightly eastward
toward the Lower Mainstem Susq basin, where FFG values are the
highest. High res models still show the potential for localized
max amounts of 3+ inches which would cause some runoff
problems.
Small streams will see the greatest runoff-response with
rapid/sharp rises expected. Small streams will be the most
susceptible to flooding. Several river points are forecast to
reach action/caution stage and minor flooding is possible. There
is also the potential for localized short duration ponding/flooding
especially in urban corridors and poor drainage areas.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
641 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
High surface pressure will settle over central KS overnight allowing
light and variable winds to develop by early Monday morning. This
very dry airmass should radiate strongly with the subsident region
of the upper ridge aloft, and dew point depressions down around 1
degree or less by 12 z in central Kansas. Light to moderate
southeasterly winds will be found over most of the area through the
day Monday marking two thermodynamically separate airmasses.
Recirculated cool air over the central Kansas counties will limit to
around 60 degrees while extreme southwest KS will likely reach the
low/mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
Strong shortwave moves through the area Tuesday night with potential
for a few hours of near high wind criteria northwesterly surface
winds behind the cold front. Mixing may be somewhat limited as the
timing looks to be more in the overnight hours than the well mixed
higher lapse rate daytime. Prior to the fast moving front,
temperatures will warm homogeneously into the 80s across the forecast
area, possibly pushing 90 degrees near Oklahoma.
By Friday through Saturday, potential increasing for a precipitation
event that may significant rain of an inch or more for parts of the
areas (central Kansas), with slightly less farther west. The GFS and
ECMWF have generally been showing such solutions for a couple of
days now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
North winds at TAF issuance time in the 12 to 14 knot range will
quickly diminish and become light and variable as a high pressure
ridge axis expands across Kansas tonight. This ridge axis will
push east early Monday, and as another leeside trough develops
across eastern Colorado, winds will pick back up out of the south
late in the morning, especially GCK and LBL terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2018
Current trends support the HRRR surface elements RH and wind
gusts forecast for red flag conditions across a portion of the
area. A large portion of the area between U.S. Highways 83 and
183 should see frequent gust to 30 mph with relative humidity
already at 15 percent and likely to drop a couple of more percent.
A Red Flag Warning has been posted until 7 pm for these areas.
Red Flag Warnings have been posted for the extreme southwest
counties on Monday, and most of the area behind the warm front
on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 26 68 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 27 71 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 35 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 80 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 21 60 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
P28 26 64 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ044-045-063-
064-077>080-087>090.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
919 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
Snow, heavy at times, continued over much of the Northland. The
heaviest snow was located in a north to south band across
central/western Saint Louis County south into Pine County with
more heavy snow over Lake Superior into the Twin Ports region. We
extended the Advisories and Warnings for most of our southern
areas through midnight and upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory in
the Arrowhead to a Winter Storm Warning. We still expect the snow
to diminish in intensity for most areas overnight, it just may
take longer. The snow should diminish first in southern areas,
slowly working its way north late tonight into Monday morning.
Additional snowfall accumulation is possible on Monday in the
Arrowhead and along the South Shore.
The wind was slowly subsiding and that trend will continue but it
will remain windy along the South Shore.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
Snow and blizzard conditions continue today with dangerous to near
impossible travel conditions across northwest Wisconsin and parts of
northeast Minnesota, including the Twin Ports. While no time is
great for a blizzard, the timing of this storm on a Sunday and
mainly wrapping up tonight should mean few people will venture out
on to the roads and road crews should be able to get the upper hand
against the weather in time for the Monday morning commute. Some
snowfall will linger into the day Monday but overall new snow
accumulation will be limited - the main focus is today/tonight.
On the synoptic scale the upper low associated with this spring
storm is centered over southern Iowa per RAP and 12z upper air
sounding analysis. Over the next 24 hours the upper level longwave
trough axis becomes negatively tilted with a 120-150 knot southerly
jet ahead of it, resulting in height falls over the lower Great
Lakes region. The surface low currently over the Ohio RIver Valley
will track north, with the deep moisture that has advected across
the Tennessee and Ohio valleys today being transported around the low
to the Upper Great Lakes region, supporting a continued supply of
deep moisture. This afternoon water vapor channel imagery from GOES-
16 vividly depicts this moisture transport process - while there has
been a brief break in the precipitation over parts of northern
Wisconsin today, the moisture transport continues to help saturate
low and mid levels of the atmosphere. This will come together as the
broad-scale lift intensifies today and tonight due to both the mid-
level PVA as the mid-level closed low tracks eastward and weak warm
air advection at low levels.
In addition to the broad-scale pattern, lake-enhanced bands of snow
are anticipated due to very favorable low level winds producing a
long fetch over Lake Superior. While temps aloft are somewhat
marginal (barely meeting the -12C to -19C ideal difference between
air and water temp) and there is some concern about the speed of the
low level winds producing too much turbulence to support long-last
bands, the plentiful low level moisture, broad scale lift already in
place, and very little directional shear is good enough to produce
locally higher snowfall amounts. At this point wind directions look
to favor more of a western Douglas county to eastern Carlton county
band, but this should shift west or east, or we could even see a few
different bands develop late today/tonight as winds shift to become
more north-northeasterly. Along the north shore today there may also
be a bit of terrain-driven enhancement along the ridge of higher
elevations.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The strong storm system will continue to move slowly east of the
region on Monday night and Tuesday. Some lingering snow showers will
be found across eastern portions of the region Monday night, and
along the south shore on Tuesday. A couple inches of snow will be
possible across the Gogebic Range of mainly Iron county. Otherwise,
Tuesday is shaping up to be a fairly quiet day with some sunshine
across most of the area. The long range models continue to show a
low pressure system moving across the Central Plains on Wednesday
and Wednesday night, but only indicate a small chance of
precipitation across our area. After Wednesday night, strong upper
level ridging will move into the mid section of the country. This
ridge will bring dry weather for the period from Thursday into
Sunday. Temperatures will warm from the upper 30s to lower 40s on
Tuesday, to the 50s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows
will generally be in the 20s throughout the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
Snow continued to affect much of the Northland early this evening
and it was heavy in spots. The snow will gradually taper off from
southwest to northeast overnight lasting into Monday over the
Arrowhead and portions of the South Shore. The visibility will
drop to a quarter to half mile in the heavier snow bands. Mainly
IFR and MVFR conditions will occur through the period with some
improvement Monday afternoon.
As the low pulls further east, the wind will back to north tonight
continuing on Monday. The strongest winds around Lake Superior
will slowly subside overnight into Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 21 35 20 39 / 100 20 10 0
INL 19 38 20 43 / 80 30 0 0
BRD 20 40 20 43 / 90 10 0 0
HYR 23 33 20 40 / 100 40 20 0
ASX 22 33 23 38 / 100 70 40 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ004.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ006>008.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ009.
Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001>003.
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for MNZ012-020-021-
037.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ038.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MNZ011-019.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for
MNZ034>036.
LS...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melde
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
648 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The center of the upper low is slow to depart, hugging the IA/MO
border as it very slowly treks east.
The pesky status shield will probably be a problem with forecast
lows tonight. It is very slow to slip east, and has actually shown
signs of retrograding west this afternoon. Tough call on sky cover
in our east especially. HRRR keeps most of any fog just west of
the CWA, but close enough for me to keep the patchy fog from the
previous forecast in.
Kept low temps similar, except raised a bit in our east where we
may stay in the clouds. Lowered highs for Monday, judging by model
performance for today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
A day of short-wave ridging will give us near normal highs for
Tuesday before the next wave comes by Tuesday night. Most models
continue to focus most energy north of us, but qpf amounts are
showing up farther south. Could be cold enough for some snow, but
not going to get too excited yet, as models were a bit overblown
with the previous late season system. Stuck some thunder in for
the evening with modest elevated CAPE still expected.
Next focus will be weekend system. For the most part, it will be
warm enough for mainly rain, although the ECMWF indicates a bit
more colder air. Still a bit early to make any sweeping
speculations on snow amounts for a latter half of April system, as
far as snow is concerned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The wind will quickly die down around and just after sunset and
will even be light and variable through much of the day on Monday.
Low clouds have been slow to push east out of Grand Island, but
should eventually begin to break up later this evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 457 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
As we continue our incredibly cold (overall) first half of April,
various cold temperature records have been broken/could yet be
broken for the April 14th-16th time frame at Grand Island and
Hastings airports, our two primary climate records sites. The
details follow:
ALREADY OCCURRED:
** Coldest HIGH temp for April 14th, and also the coldest high on
record so late into the spring! **
- Grand Island: New April 14th record of 31 degrees (previous was
35 in 1986). This was the latest spring occurrence of a max temp
of 31-or-colder on record, the previous mark was 27 degrees on
April 11, 1997.
- Hastings: New April 14th record of 30 degrees (previous was 40
in 1993). This was the latest spring occurrence of max temp 30
-or-colder, the previous mark was 27 degrees on April 11, 1997
UPCOMING :
** Coldest low temperature for April 15th (this morning) **
- Grand Island: Record is 15 in 1905...forecast is 21
- Hastings: Record is 23 in 2014...forecast is 21
** Coldest high temperature for April 15th (this afternoon) **
- Grand Island: Record is 32 in 2000...forecast is 33
- Hastings: Record is 32 in 2000...forecast is 33
** Coldest low temperature for April 16th (Monday morning) **
- Grand Island: Record is 20 in 1904...forecast is 18
- Hastings: Record is 20 in 1951...forecast is 17
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Wesely
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
811 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 428 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...Widespread winter storm continues and may linger through Mon in
some areas...
with secondary surge of moderate snow and blowing snow on Monday we
have extended the warnings for central and eastern forecast area
through Monday. Snow will not be as heavy on Monday compared to what
is occurring at this time, but due to moderate snow and blowing snow
the warning was extended.
Upper low spinning well to the southwest over IA and northern Ill.
sfc low of 1002 mb is well to the south over northern IN. Surge of
deep moisture streaming north into Upper Michigan has supported
prolonged period of S+ all day long over much of Upper Michigan.
Snow totals thus far are 6-9 inches with totals over 10 inches in
Menominee county as they had an earlier start. Due to sharp warm
nose aloft seen on 12z APX sounding this morning, some mixed precip
has been observed with a bit of rain mixed in earlier at ISQ and
sleet into far eastern Upper Michigan. Per radar and HRRR trends,
expect last surge of S+ (1-2"/hr snow rates) to affect most of Upper
Michigan through 00z this evening. Expect some locations to end up
with over a foot of snow just since daybreak this morning.
Shortly after 00z/8 pm ET, snow intensity should diminish sharply to
around 1/2" per hour or even less. Most of snow after 00z this
evening through daybreak Monday will occur over higher terrain of
western and north central Upper Michigan with upslope flow (may see
additional snow accums of 2-4 inches). Dry slot moving up into cntrl
Lk Michigan (see back edge of wideapread radar echoes) will result
in loss of ice aloft by mid evening and we probably, given enough
low-level saturation, are going to see snow transition to freezing
rain or freezing drizzle mainly east of MQT to IMT. Could be light
glaze of ice occur. Will keep ending time of warnings for Iron
through Menominee county at 06z as most precip will be done by that
time.
Focus late tonight into Mon morning turns northern lower Michigan
and eastern Upper Michigan as all the models are starting to come on
board with idea of secondary upper low developing which allows sfc
low to persist and try to back more into eastern Upper Michigan. Net
result of this stronger forcing is support for an area of moderate
snow to re-develop near Lk Superior and east (as enough deeper
moisture moves back in to eliminate any freezing precip from
tonight). NAM/GEM/GFS and latest EC all show the secondary upper
low developing and associated deformation across much of north and
east Upper Michigan. This forcing and moisture will be
supplemented by sfc-H8 N winds with H85 temps -13c. So, good
enough for upslope lift and also lake enhancement. Overall
widespread additional snow on Monday will be 2 to 5 inches, with
higher amounts over ncntrl Upper Michigan. Since the sfc low will
be farther west, pressure gradient remains tight and winds/blowing
snow will be more of a factor. Long story short, due to these
trends, extended warnings for north central and eastern forecast
area. Also did extension for Delta and Schoolcraft though those
may be more marginal. Not confident enough that far west will get
back into the better forcing/moisture for significant lake
enhancement so left those warnings to expire at 12z Mon. Evening
or mid shift can investigate further and make additional headline
decisions over the western forecast area. It appears this late
season storm just doesn`t want to let go!
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
NAM shows a closed 500 mb low over the lower Great Lakes 00z Tue
with a trough in the western U.S. The closed low moves into New
England while the trough in the western U.S. moves into the central
plains 12z Wed and into the corn belt by 00z Thu. Nam slowly
diminishes the deep moisture and moves out the 850-500 mb q-vector
convergence Mon night with the moisture moving out on Tue afternoon.
GFS and ECMWF show about the same thing as well. System slowly
departs with some lake effect pcpn continuing behind it. System on
Wed looks to stay mainly to the south of the area.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the eastern
U.S. and another over the western U.S. 12z Thu with a ridge over the
plains. The western U.S. trough moves into the southern Rockies 12z
Fri with the eastern trough in New England. The southern Rockies
trough moves into the central plains 12z Sat. Differences show up on
Sun between the GFS and ECMWF with the GFS moving the trough into
the lower Mississippi River valley and the ECMWF shows a trough in
the southern plains 12z Sun which is slower than the GFS is.
Temperatures look to stay below normal for this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 809 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
Improvement in conditions is expected this evening as the area of
heaviest snow departs and winds gradually diminish. Still, IFR
conditions are likely to prevail at all terminals through most of
Monday. With snowfall increasing again Monday morning, ocnl LIFR
vsby may be possible.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 254 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
Tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the ne and
low pressure in the lower Great Lakes will continue the east to
northeast gales of 35-45kt tonight across Lake Superior along with
freezing spray. Winds will diminish below gale force Mon afternoon.
Winds for the rest of the week will be under 25kt.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
MIZ001>003-009-084.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for MIZ004>007-013-
014-085.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight
for MIZ001>006-009.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for MIZ010>012.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for LSZ243>251-264>267.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Monday for LSZ162-240>242-
263.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
852 PM PDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will continue to spread rain through the
southern portion of our area this evening. Scattered showers are
forecast behind the front overnight. More widespread shower
activity is likely on Monday, along with a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Dry and cool conditions are forecast for Tuesday
and most of Wednesday. A fast-moving system is then forecast to
bring light amounts of rain from late Wednesday into early
Thursday. Dry weather and warmer temperatures are likely by late
in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 8:50 PM PDT Sunday...A cold front that began
moving into the North Bay early this afternoon had moved through
most of the SF Bay Area by early this evening. Currently, radar
and satellite show the front across the South Bay and moving
through the Monterey Bay Area. Rainfall totals with the front have
been light, mostly less than a half inch. The most rainfall thus
far is 0.66" at Mount Tamalpais in Marin County.
The 00Z NAM and latest HRRR both indicate scattered showers will
continue behind the front overnight. Increasing shower activity
is then expected on Monday morning as the cold core of an
unseasonably cold upper trough approaches from the northwest.
Lapse rates will steepen by Monday morning as 500 mb temperatures
drop as low as -33 deg C over the Bay Area. There is a potential
for thunderstorms across our entire forecast area on Monday, with
the best chance across the North and East Bay where the NAM
forecasts surface-based CAPE values as high as 550 J/kg during
the afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms on Monday could
produce brief heavy downpours, small hail, and locally gusty
winds. Models agree that shower activity will begin to taper off
by late afternoon and end during the early evening hours.
Additional rainfall totals through Monday are expected to be about
a quarter of on inch, with locally up to a half inch or more where
heavier downpours occur.
Snow levels are forecast to drop as low as 3000 feet by Monday
morning (and possibly a bit lower in the North Bay). A dusting of
snow is possible on Bay Area peaks, and the highest peak in the
Bay Area (Mount Hamilton) may pick up a couple of inches of snow
by late Monday. Farther south in the Santa Lucia Mountains of
Monterey County, as much as 3 or even 4 inches of snow is possible
above 4000 feet.
Dry and cool weather is forecast for Tuesday and most of
Wednesday. A fast-moving system is then forecast to move in from
the northwest and bring a quick shot of precipitation to our
region from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday.
Because that system will be moving through quickly, rainfall
totals are expected to be less than a quarter of an inch.
Dry and warmer weather is forecast late in the week and into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 5:00 PM PDT Sunday...A frontal system is moving
through the SFO Bay Area accompanied by rain with MVFR cigs and
breezy south to southwest winds. This front will spread into the
South Bay after 01Z and the MRY Bay Area after 02Z. A wind shift
to the southwest is expected after the front passes with rain
ending. A few showers will develop tonight in the moist unstable
airmass behind the front. Instability will increase on Monday with
the daytime heating and shower activity should pick up in the
afternoon.
Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs improving to VFR after 02Z after the
front passes. Southerly winds gusting to 25 kt switching to
southwest by 01Z. A few showers may develop tonight. Showers
increasing after 18Z Monday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...A few low clouds around MRY will keep
occasional MVFR cigs until the front passes around 05Z. MVFR cigs
during frontal passage at SNS between 02 and 05Z. Conditions
improve to VFR after 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:33 PM PDT Sunday...A cold front approaching the
California coast will increase westerly winds over the bays this
afternoon and evening. Northwesterly winds will become gusty over
the coastal waters including the bays this tonight and Monday.
There is a slight chance for thunderstorms near shore and in the
bays Monday. Another system will arrive late Wednesday increasing
winds.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 3 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 AM
SCA...SF Bay until 11 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: Sims
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
215 PM PDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific storm moves through today and Monday with rain, mountain
snow, thunderstorms, and gusty wind. Dry Tuesday, then wet weather
Wednesday into Thursday, with dry weather returning Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Pacific frontal system is spreading precip into western and
northern portions of the CWA attm. Breezy to windy conditions
have developed across Interior NorCal ahead of the front. Wind
advisory has been expanded to include all of the Sacramento Valley
and Delta as winds are stronger farther south than guidance
suggested. Peak wind speeds expected now through early evening in
the Central Valley. Higher resolution NAM-3KM and HRRR showing
precip continuing to spread inland through the afternoon into
evening. Models showing some Neg LI`s and increased CAPE along the
front in the northern third of the CWA so an isolated afternoon
thunderstorm with the front is possible. Helicity values are
favorable for rotating storms, however CAPE is somewhat limited
today.
Precip turns showery over much of the Central Valley this evening,
while heavier precip spreads into the Western Plumas mountains
and Sierra Nevada. Snow levels this evening will initially be
around 4500 to 6500 feet, but lower overnight behind the front.
Heavier precip decreases in the Western Plumas mountains after
midnight and in the Sierra Monday morning. Snow levels Monday
morning expected to be around 3000 feet.
Large cold upper trough moves into NorCal Monday with cyclonic
flow keeping showers...heavy at times..in the forecast Monday.
Large area of neg LI`s depicted across Interior NorCal with
highest values north of a KUKI-KOVE-KSVE line. 5H temps lower
to -34 Deg C over this area in the afternoon with steepening
lapse rates. 0-1 KM and 0-6 KM Bufkit vertical wind shear profiles
suggest potential for isolated rotating storms. Abundant small
hail likely with stronger cells and possible isolated funnel
clouds or weak tornadoes.
Storm total QPF looks to be up to around 0.60 inches or less in
the Central Valley, locally higher with stronger convective
storms. Liquid totals in the foothills and mountains through
Monday range generally from around 0.5 to 1.5. Snow totals of 6 to
12 inches, locally higher, expected in the mountains of Western
Plumas and Northern Sierra Nevada above 5000 feet. Winter weather
advisory in effect as mountain travel likely to be difficult with
slick roads, reduced visibility, travel delays, and chain
controls.
Showers decrease Monday night with drier and warmer weather
returning Tuesday as upper ridging moves into NorCal. Ridging
shifts east into the Great Basin late Tuesday, as next Pacific
storm spreads precip into the CWA by Wed afternoon/night.
PCH
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Forecast models indicate an upper low moving quickly overhead
with a few lingering Sierra showers on Thursday. The upper low
will shift to the east as a ridge of high pressure builds in. As a
result, dry and warmer conditions are anticipated Friday into
next weekend. Daytime highs could be 5-10 degrees above seasonal
normals, with Valley highs potentially reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Precipitation will continue across the area with occasional MVFR
conditions over the Central Valley and widespread IFR over the
northern Sierra Nevada through Monday. South wind gusts 20-25 kts
Central Valley through 03z Monday. Thunderstorms possible over
the Central Valley through 03z Monday, and again Monday afternoon
after 18z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PDT Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-
Southern Sacramento Valley.
&&
$$