Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/10/18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
815 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
It will be chilly for the next few days, with light snow
possible tonight into Tuesday, perhaps mixed with rain at times.
It will turn warmer later in the week, though that will come
with a chance of rain showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
815 PM Update...
Weak area of light snow moving into very dry air this evening.
Mesoscale models are struggling with the advancement of the snow
across the southern tier and NEPA. All want to weaken the snow,
and there`s some evidence on the radars that the precipitation
is already beginning to withdraw back to the south. Have lowered
the pops to likely across NEPA but expanded the chance pops to
the north a bit to better account for the very light snow over
western NY advancing to the east. In any case, it`s much to do
about nothing as accumulations will be very light in any case.
Previous discussion below.
Tonight:
A weak low pressure system will move through our
region bringing an increase in clouds early this evening.
Enough lift looks present for a period of mainly light snow to
continue developing across Western PA then spread northeastward
into northeast PA and the Southern Tier of New York this evening
into the overnight. Snow amounts look rather light with the
potential for an inch or so in the Poconos and lower amounts
elsewhere. This system will be a quick mover with limited
moisture. Lows will be in the 20`s to low 30`s overnight, so
some slick spots may form on roads leading into the morning
commute.
Some uncertainty is present in how far north the snow will come
northward tonight. The 3KM NAM, HREF and RGEM are more
suppressed, keeping any snow confined to the Poconos. The
majority of the operational models do bring the light snow into
the Southern Tier along with keeping Rome and Syracuse dry. QPF
and snowfall totals mainly revolved along a model blend
acknowledging both outcomes. It would not be surprising to see
drier air to win out in NY which would lead to even lower snow
than forecasted. Another interesting tidbit is the HRRR and RAP
have been hitting the Finger Lakes region with a quick burst of
snow this evening, for now this looks overdone.
Winds look to be under 10 mph.
Tuesday:
With the quick departing system, any snow will be quick to end
in the morning. Skies should clear by early afternoon across the
region from west to east. High temperatures are expected to be
in the 40`s, melting any accumulations of snow from the
overnight. Winds will be light in the morning then a look at
bufkit data indicates the potential for winds to increase out
of the northwest at around 10 mph in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 pm update... Conditions remain quiet Tuesday night, under
clear-partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be cold once again,
generally ranging in the 20s area-wide.
On Wednesday, we begin to see an increase in both moisture and
warm advection forcing, ahead of a frontal boundary across
southern Ontario and perhaps far western and northern NY. This
will result in an increase in cloud cover with time, and a few
light showers could sneak into parts of CNY (mainly the Finger
Lakes, Mohawk Valley, and southern Tug Hill regions) during the
afternoon.
Highs Wednesday afternoon will be in the 40s to near 50 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 pm update... Another surface front (of the warm frontal
variety) is expected to approach CNY/NEPA later Wednesday night,
then push across the forecast area Thursday into Thursday
evening, tied to a surface wave tracking across Ontario/Quebec.
This system will bring the likelihood of rain for much of CNY on
Thursday, with generally more scattered/isolated showers
elsewhere.
Afterwards, things get more tricky as we head towards next
weekend and early into the following week. There is good model
agreement on the large-scale pattern, featuring a deep upper-
level trough and strong surface low gradually translating across
the middle of the country, and eventually towards the eastern
Great Lakes/northeastern states by Monday. However, the
northward advance of warm air out ahead of this storm and
trailing cold front is very much in question, along with
ultimate timing of the onset of steadier rain/showers.
For now, we`ve continued to employ a model blend, which
gravitates towards the ideas that warmer air may make it into at
least parts of the forecast area (southern and western zones
have the best shot at this) later Friday and Saturday, before
getting shunted back southward by Sunday. We also think the
steadiest rainfall will likely wait until at least sometime on
Sunday or Sunday night, with the first part of the weekend
(Saturday) likely ending up mainly dry.
Stay tuned for later updates, as a tight temperature gradient is
likely over the weekend (temperatures in the 40s/50s near and
north of the warm front, with 60s/70s expected deeper into the
warm sector).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 pm update...
Snow is moving into central NY and northeast PA attm. With the
snow are IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs. Radar coverage and intensity
not impressive. Despite this snow will get into the south
central NY and AVP tonight. Have tempos for the snow this
evening then a predominant IFR vsby and MVFR fuel alternate cig
during the overnight. Snow ends around 10z so vsbys rise but
cigs stay MVFR until around 14z in south central NY and 19z at
AVP. After that VFR during the afternoon.
SYR/RME should stay VFR for the next 24 hours. Most of the time
cigs will be around 4k ft.
Light and variable winds tonight. Tuesday northwest winds at 5
to 10 kts.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday night through Thursday...Chance of restrictions in
light rain/snow Wednesday night; rain likely Thursday.
Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR; some restrictions
possible in scattered rain showers for the NY terminals.
Saturday...mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MWG
NEAR TERM...DGM/MWG
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...TAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
945 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal system will affect the area through Tuesday. High
pressure will then prevail through Saturday. A strong cold
front will approach on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RAP and H3R suggest two areas of light rain will develop
overnight. One developing along the Georgia coast and spreading
northeast into the Charleston Metro Area with the second
developing from roughly Metter and Allendale northeast to
Walterboro. These two areas will gradually consolidate into a
single, larger area of light-moderate rainfall around daybreak.
Opted to make some minor adjustments to pops based on this
trend delaying the higher pops for Charleston Metro and far
inland areas until after 6 AM, which is second period of the
forecast. No other changes were made for the late evening
update.
09/21z surface analysis showed in-situ cold air damming firmly
in place across the Southeast U.S. with 1011 hPa low pressure
centered about 175 miles east of Bulls Bay. Weak isentropic
downglide will give to strengthening isentropic assent atop the
wedge overnight as the low-level jet intensifies with the
approach of shortwave energy across the Tennessee Valley. Light
rains are expected to break out across interior Southeast Georgia
by late evening/early Tuesday morning, then expand northeast into
Southeast South Carolina prior to daybreak as additional upper
forcing with the right entrance region of jet streak embedded
within the polar jet approaches.
Short term guidance is pretty consistent in the development of
a fairly large area of light to locally moderate showers in the
3-6 AM timeframe. 70-90% pops look reasonable during this time.
RAP guidance suggests some elevated instability will work into
the far southern zones overnight with Showalter indices going
as low as -1 to -2C. This could support a few elevated tstms
across portions of the Georgia coastal counties. Lows from the
mid 40s across northern portions of Dorchester and Berkeley
Counties to the lower 50s across Southeast Georgia look good.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday: The mid/upper levels will consist of an approaching
trough in the morning, with it`s axis and an associated
shortwave stretching from roughly the Great Lakes region
southward into the Southern Plains. The trough will move
eastward, with it`s axis and shortwave passing over us after
midnight. At the surface, weak low pressure associated with a
coastal system will pass just offshore from the morning into the
afternoon. Most of the system itself will brush the coastline.
However, deep moisture will be in place at the beginning of the
forecast. PWATs exceeding 1.5" will be along our far southern
coastal area, tapering to ~1.15" as one head northward and
inland. The result is stratiform precipitation along the
coastline in the morning. POPs taper as one heads inland. The
QPF reflects this as well. By the afternoon, the system will be
moving away. Showers will rapidly end as drier air builds from
the west. The nighttime will be a dry time. High temperatures
will be below normal. Low temperatures will be near normal.
Wednesday and Thursday: High pressure will dominate the local
weather with dry conditions. High temperatures will moderate
each day, being a few degrees below normal on Wednesday and then
normal Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep ridge will persist Thursday night into Saturday before a
strong upper trough moves in Sunday. A cold front is expected
to cross the area Sunday or Sunday night, potentially bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm
temperatures expected Friday through Sunday, then potentially
cooler Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR cigs will prevail into Tuesday morning before slowly
improving. Cigs are expected to drop to alternate minimums at
at both KSAV and KCHS after 05z and persist through 13-14z.
Showers are expected to break out by 06z across interior
Southeast Georgia and spread into the terminals after 09z.
Limited vsbys to MVFR for now, but localized conditions into
IFR thresholds is possible in heavier convective elements.
Conditions will improve by late morning with MVFR conditions
expected to prevail during the afternoon hours. There is a
small risk for tstms at KSAV, but the probabilities of
occurrence are just too low to justify a mention at this time.
Extended Aviation Outlook: A coastal system could bring flight
restrictions through Tuesday evening, mainly for KSAV.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Early evening buoy reports indicate seas were running
about a foot too low. Raise overnight wave heights accordingly.
Seas have been as high as 7-8 ft at 41004, which was not
captured by NWPS or WW4 output. If this trend continues, a Small
Craft Advisory may need to be issued for the Georgia offshore
leg later tonight.
Tuesday through Saturday: Weak surface low pressure associated
with a coastal system will pass just offshore Tuesday morning
into Tuesday afternoon, causing the pressure gradient to briefly
become enhanced. Expect increased winds during the morning and
early afternoon. Gusts should stay under 25 kt for the waters
within 20 nm. However, gusts could briefly reach or exceed 25 kt
for the GA waters beyond 20 nm (AMZ374). Additionally, the wave
models hint seas could reach or exceed 6 ft in conjunction with
the wind gusts. Given the brief timing window of these
conditions and the fact that the models trended down slightly
with the winds, we opted to hold off on issuing a Small Craft
Advisory until the next set of model runs comes in. Regardless,
conditions will improve later Tuesday as the low departs and
high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will then
bring tranquil conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Friday into
Saturday the southerly flow strengthens in response to a
building Bermuda ridge. With inland temperatures pushing 80
degrees, an afternoon sea breeze enhancement is expected along
the coast including Charleston Harbor. Winds on Sunday look a
good bit stronger as a strong cold front approaches, tightening
the southerly gradient.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cold weather for early April will continue into the
middle of this week. A weak disturbance will moves east of the
region by early Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm slowly but significantly by the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The narrow band of light snow that dropped an inch or so of snow
on some grassy surfaces, is finally starting to become more
disorganized.
Water vapor loop shows drier air starting to move in from the
west as the jet core slides off to the SE of the local area and
we begin to be affected by the subsidence in the left entrance
region.
The RAP and HRRR continue to shrink the snow overnight, but
lingering light snow/snow showers will linger into the wee hours
until the trough axis moves east.
Another cold night is in store with lows ranging from around 20
over the Northern Mountains to around freezing over the Lower
Susq Valley. These will average about 5-10 deg colder than it
should be for the second week of April.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday looks much nicer, with a 7-10 kt WNW breeze that could
gust into the mid teens at times. Temps will be 5-8F higher
than today (Monday).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period starts off Tuesday night into Wednesday
with minimum temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. A fast
moving system for Thursday may bring a few showers. A break from
the cold air will come Friday into the weekend with the latest
models brining in warmer air into the region. Have highs in the
low 70s currently though NBM and other ensembles continue to
trend warmer. Temperatures Sunday will drop out ahead of an
approaching low. Less confidence in the timing of this system
but showers are expected Sunday night into Monday. Cold air
behind the system early next week will drop temps again.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak area of low pressure passing south of Pennsylvania will
produce occasional light snow and lowering cigs across central
Pa late this evening. The light snow should exit the area late
tonight, as the low pressure system passes off the east coast.
However, residual low level moisture and light upsloping flow
will create lingering lows cigs/fog across the Laurel Highlands,
where confidence in IFR/LIFR conditions is high tonight.
Elsewhere, IFR conditions remain possible overnight, but
confidence not as high.
A drier northwest flow will overspread the region Tuesday, as
high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. Model soundings and
SREF probability charts support a high confidence of all areas
returning to VFR conditions by around 13Z Tuesday morning.
Outlook...
Wed...Evening low cigs possible NW Mtns.
Thu...AM rain/low cigs possible N Mtns.
Fri...Slight chance of AM low cigs N Mtns.
Sat...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Ceru/Martin
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
A short wave trough pushing across the CWA will exit the area this
afternoon bringing with it the much needed precipitation pushing
south and east into south central Kansas and into Oklahoma. A few
sprinkles can`t be ruled out for this afternoon as well with the
HRRR picking up a few spotty areas but not likely due to not
having the needed lift and low level drying that will take place
through the day time heating hours this afternoon. Winds will
remain light out of the north but will slowly turn more out of the
south heading into tonight with return flow expected as high
pressure pushes into the CWA from the north and northeast. High
temperatures will struggle to push into the 50s this afternoon for
the eastern half of the CWA where cloud cover will remain most of
the afternoon, but the western half of the area will push into the
mid to upper 50s where there is already clearing taking place as
seen on IR.
With clearing skies and winds relatively light, temperatures will
drop into the mid 30s for most of the CWA with mist and fog
possible across the southeastern counties due to the previous
precipitation over the past 24 hours and having more of a
southeast flow at the surface. Radiational cooling over night will
be stronger in these areas allowing the temperature to reach
closer to the dew point as well. The rest of the CWA will most
likely not see these impacts with more dry air advection occurring
with the south to south west low level flow. Winds will pick up
out of the southwest for the entire area Tuesday afternoon as the
pressure gradient strengthens due to lee side troughing starting
to develop along the Colorado and Kansas state line with gusts up
to 20-25mph. This downsloping, warming air will drop relative
humidity values into the upper teens and low 20s with temperatures
sky rocketing into the 70s. No other significant weather impacts
are expected nor will be forecasted in the near term through
Tuesday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
A warming trend will accelerate for the middle of the week
starting Wednesday off with mild temperatures in the 40s pushing
strongly into 80s for the entire CWA with 90s possible along the
Oklahoma border from Elkhart to Liberal and Ashland. Warming
southwest wind will help to aid in this warming trend with winds
in the teens and gusts up into the 20s. A low will track across
the area with little effect to the area besides a brief change in
wind direction before return flow back to the southwest over
Wednesday night into Thursday. The pressure gradient behind the
low will amplify through the day as lee side troughing redevelops
and intensifies along the Colorado border with gusts pushing into
the 40mph range. The downsloping, dry southwest low level flow
will help aid in the warmest day this calendar year with highs
pushing well into the upper 80s and 90s as far north as Garden
City to Dodge City and Greensburg.
Enjoy the summer time warmth while it lasts as a short wave
trough will begin to push through the area Thursday night into
Friday dropping a fairly strong cold front through Friday morning.
Models indicate a little disagreement with the timing of how soon
it will affect the area, but strong winds out of the northwest
behind it are expected through all consensus. The timing will
affect how cold or cool it will be for Friday morning with 40s
expected for north and western counties and 50s for south and
eastern counties or the CWA. There will not be too much of a warm
up for Friday pushing into the upper 50s to mid 60s west to east.
Post frontal troughing on the backside of the low will give low
PoPs into the 20s for most of the CWA Friday night into Saturday
morning staying as liquid precipitation with soundings showing
warm layers in the boundary layer above the surface. No frozen or
mixed precipitation is expected at this time. The precipitation,
if any, as models are not consistent with each on it happening,
will be minimal at best with no accumulations expected will end
before sunrise Saturday morning. There is little confidence in
precipitation falling as this is again another northwest flow
system being dryer for the CWA due to not enough upper level
divergence down the backside of the ridge situated across the
Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming.
Saturday will start off on the cold side just below freezing with
reinforced cold air advection through the weekend starting off in
the upper 20s to low 30s seeing a warmup, though, into upper 40s
to low 50s. Sunday will start in the 20s below freezing as well,
but a warming trend is in store with southwesterly flow returning
for southwestern Kansas with temperatures pushing into the 60s
Sunday and 70s for Monday with dry conditions expected to continue
into early next week with the drought expected to worsen over
this time even with what little precipitation may fall Friday
night. Broad upper level ridging looks to be the driver of the
tail end of the weekend`s weather and into next week with dry,
warmer air pumping back into the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the overnight
period with a few mid level clouds this evening giving away to
mostly clear skies overnight. Winds will generally be from the
northeast this evening shifting to more of a southerly direction
overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
Fire weather will be minimal for the remainder of this
afternoon but will return to elevated for Tuesday with a stronger
southwest, dry flow in store with wind gusts up to 25mph and
relative humidity values down to 20 percent range. Wednesday looks
to be the start of a string of fire weather days with elevated to
significant conditions expected under dryer conditions with
relative humidity values down to 10-15 percent. Wind speeds are
uncertain at this time with the EC showing the low track across
the CWA with minimal winds, but if the track shifts north or
south, it will be in the windier sector warranting a fire weather
watch to be issued. Thursday will be the main day for concern
with widespread extreme conditions expected with much higher winds
out of the southwest ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
tightening the gradient over the CWA expected gusts up to 50-60
mph and relative humidity down in the 10-15 percent range once
again with temperatures pushing into the upper 80s to low 90s once
again. Fire danger for Friday heading into the weekend looks to
be elevated to significant as well behind the aforementioned cold
front that will push through Thursday night into Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 72 48 87 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 34 73 44 86 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 37 74 48 89 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 38 75 48 91 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 32 72 45 83 / 10 0 0 0
P28 33 70 47 84 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
FIRE WEATHER...Lowe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
Subsidence behind a shortwave trough axis will bring any remaining
sprinkles/flurries over east central IL shortly as the shortwave
exits the area to the east. Overnight, high pressure will settle
southeastward toward Missouri with a ridge axis extending into
central IL. The flow around the ridge will be light north-
northwesterly, almost light and variable. Due to the remaining
moisture from last night`s snow and the light winds, there will be
potential for fog development overnight. Current HRRR has a band
of fog developing starting around 3 a.m. from Bloomington to
Decatur to Effingham and Olney and expanding only slightly through
sunrise, roughly where forecast winds become light and variable.
Have patchy fog in forecast throughout the forecast area, as the
actual placement of fog still appears to be in question, and
possibly scattered over the entire area. Fog should dissipate by
around 9 a.m. Temperatures ranging from mid 20s in the northwest
to low 30s in the southeast look good. No significant updates
needed this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
Despite high pressure advancing into Illinois, a 500mb shortwave
and trough axis will continue to trigger some spotty rain/snow
showers into early evening across central IL. The strongest DPVA
will brush across the NE half of our forecast area /FA/, but HRRR
and NAMnest show somewhat wider coverage of showers. Have included
sprinkles/flurries already in a majority of the FA early this
evening, then decreasing eastward through 9pm.
The next concern in the short term is possible clearing and fog
development. We melted nearly all of the snow that fell last
night, so residual boundary layer moisture will be elevated above
what the models can resolve. Clearing may be limited to NW and N
counties. However, think patchy fog will be possible later
tonight in most of our area, especially where higher snowfall
occurred. Fog should generally lift shortly after 9 am, then
clearing of the clouds should briefly progress from west to east
before mid-level clouds redevelop in the heating of the day.
Surface winds will begin to shift from NW to W, starting a warming
trend. Despite possible limited insolation tomorrow afternoon,
think that high temperatures will still climb about 10 deg above
this afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 40s to around 50,
which is still below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
A pattern shift in the upper level flow starting Tuesday night will
usher in warmer conditions for the last half of the week. Rising
heights aloft and a return of southerly flow at the surface will
fuel temperatures climbing above normal for the first time in
a while. There will be limited sunshine for Wed due to a weak
surface trough passing across the area, but highs should top out
in the 60s across the board, with upper 60s toward Jacksonville.
Some light rain showers are forecast to progress across northern
Illinois Wed evening, as a warm frontogenesis produces some
forcing for precipitation. The warm fronts parent low is projected
to advance from Nebraska Wed afternoon to northern Lower Michigan
by Thursday morning. The best chance for precip into our forecast
area from that system looks to be Wed evening, when a few
sprinkles develop as far south as Galesburg to El Paso.
As the low departs to the northeast, a cold front will approach
our NW CWA, then stall out from west to east across our northern
counties. Where that occurs will control how warm our northern FA
becomes on Thursday. For now bumped up highs above guidance in the
southern half of the CWA, but uncertainty is high to where the
front will settle out. There could even be a few rain showers that
develop along the cold front on Thursday, but the consensus
supports dry for now. The stalled front will lift north as a warm
front Thursday night, prompting an increase in low level warm
advection. Increasing instability due to moisture advection will
increase rain chances slightly Thursday night. There could even be
a few rumbles of thunder, so we added isolated storms for late
Thur night and Friday morning. Stronger instability and forcing
for precip will come Friday afternoon and Friday night, when a
100KT 300mb jet couples with a low level jet over the warm sector.
At this point, the severe threat looks to be SW of Illinois during
that time frame, but thunderstorm chances will be higher during
that time.
One change with the late week system in the latest model suite is
a slowing of the cold frontal passage. The ECMWF actually takes a
surface low across the northern half of our CWA late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening, while the GFS moves the low
across northern Illinois. Have kept thunder in our eastern
counties Saturday morning for now, but the ECMWF solution would
support continued threat for storms Saturday afternoon. The GFS
shows a relatively dry day on Saturday, but that is inconsistent
with its previous solutions and with the dynamics in the area.
Therefore, leaning toward the ECMWF for the weekend weather
progression.
Both models still show a pronounced cooling for Saturday night
through Monday, with scattered showers possible. There could even
be a period of light snow for areas north of I-72 late Saturday
night into Sunday morning, before snow changes back to rain by
Noon Sunday. There is agreement in the extended that temperatures
Sunday and Monday will be below normal, with highs in the 40s and
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018
Primarily MVFR conditions across central IL terminals this evening
as cigs around 3000 ft AGL are predominant. A few sprinkles or
flurries are possible the first few hours after 00Z this evening,
although no accumulation or vsby reduction is expected. Overnight,
partial clearing will allow for patchy fog development by morning.
Setup for fog does not appear ideal, however copious moisture
should allow for at least some vsby reduction. Have included
mention of fog with MVFR vsby 10Z-14Z. Scattered cloud cover
around 3000 feet looks to develop Tuesday afternoon. Winds N
around 5 kts becoming light and variable by morning, eventually
switching to W 5-10 kts Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...37
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
929 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...
.UPDATE...
Band of east west oriented showers and thunderstorms along
stalled warm front have moved little over the course of the
evening. 2 to 4 inches of rain has already fallen from roughly
Newberry to Palm Coast, and IR satellite imagery trend over the
last hour has shown broad area of cooling cloud tops and a few
overshooting tops across Gilchrist and western Alachua counties.
Heavy rainfall will likely continue in this area over the next few
hours. Coverage is expected to spread northward overnight, and
upstream convection continues across the Gulf and will keep the
potential for additional widespread rainfall through the overnight
hours, especially south of I-10. Flood Watch remains in effect
through late tomorrow night for counties across north central
Florida. Latest HRRR runs have been trending southward with the
axis of heaviest precip early tomorrow morning, but have kept
overall trends the same for Tuesday at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue south of a GNV to SGJ
line, and coverage is expected to increase and move northward
through the overnight hours. Most ceilings have dropped to IFR
this evening, and are expected to remain there for the most part
overnight. Bases may increase to low end MVFR overnight, but will
likely be accompanied by showers or thunderstorms. By mid to late
morning, confidence is medium that bases could creep up above IFR,
but will likely
&&
.MARINE...
A warm front will stall across the waters tonight and a wave of
low pressure will move along the front over the waters Tuesday.
Onshore winds will continue across the waters and widespread
showers and thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow night.
Winds could approach Small Craft Advisory criteria (20 knots or
greater) particularly over the offshore waters. Onshore flow will
continue and conditions will improve Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds over the waters.
Rip Currents:
Moderate risk expected Tuesday as onshore flow and swells increase.
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall will continue this evening across the southern
zones, and Flood Watch was issued earlier this evening for
Gilchrist county eastward to St. Johns. 2 to 4 inches of rain has
already fallen across a portion of this area, and waves of
rainfall will continue through tomorrow night. Localized street
flooding is possible south of I-10, and the South Fork of the
Black Creek as well as forecast points along the Santa Fe could
see action stage flooding sometime tomorrow or into Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 53 63 46 75 / 50 40 0 0
SSI 56 62 52 69 / 60 60 20 0
JAX 59 65 51 73 / 70 80 40 0
SGJ 63 68 54 71 / 70 80 70 0
GNV 63 70 51 77 / 90 70 50 0
OCF 66 74 53 78 / 80 80 60 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Alachua-Bradford-Clay-
Flagler-Gilchrist-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Elsenheimer/Shuler/Nelson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.UPDATE...
Tonight...Frontal boundary just to our north has been focusing
numerous showers/storms this evening and the GFS shows the front
oscillating near our northern areas. So our likely PoPs there look
good and may even need to be raised. Farther south is trickier as
the HRRR has been showing convection propagating down into central
sections after midnight. Conditions aloft look more supportive of
sustaining convection during the overnight as mid level temps cool
and broadly diffluent upper level flow develops ahead of shortwave
trough. The main concern with the showers/storms will be
considerable water ponding in low lying areas from local 2-3 inch
rainfall amounts.
Since the HRRR has been so persistent in advancing the convection
southward, have bumped up PoPs into central sections. The large
scale models hold the frontal boundary near our northern areas, so
think that the convection propagating southward will run out of gas
southward from Orlando and Cape Canaveral in the overnight hours.
With partly cloudy skies in the south and very moist low levels,
have added mention of patchy late night fog.
Tuesday (Previous Discussion)...Conditions become more unstable
aloft as a digging shortwave trough induces weak cyclonic flow over
the southeast. Consequently, the flow becomes considerably more
energetic with several vort maxes passing across the northern half
of the CWA beginning early Tuesday morning. Expect numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the northeastern Gulf and
push onshore, mainly over the I-4 corridor. With time, the old
surface boundary will begin to sag south through the area, acting as
the focal point for showers and storms from Brevard/Osceola county
south. Maintained categorical PoPs (80%+) from Melbourne-Kissimmee
north and likely (60-70%) elsewhere. Some breaks in the sun, at
least across Okeechobee/Osceola counties and the Space/Treasure
Coasts should bring temperatures up into the mid 80s before cloud
cover and precip chances increase.
Unidirectional flow out of the west in the low levels, enhanced a
bit aloft, suggest a chance for strong wind gusts tomorrow
especially if surface instability can be maximized through breaks
in the cloud cover. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the
central peninsula under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
Large mass of showers/storms along quasi-stationary frontal boundary
has been occurring just north of Lake/Volusia counties late this
evening, with some activity affecting our far northern sections.
This convection is not likely to completely end with loss of daytime
heating as conditions aloft become more supportive overnight.
Therefore, have a mention of vicinity thunder northward from KISM-
KMCO-KTIX. Timing is not certain enough to add tempo groups, but the
most likely affected terminals should be KLEE-KSFB-KDAB. Skies may
stay partially cleared enough in the south for patchy late night fog
KVRB-KFPR. Considerable cloudiness and showers along with isolated
storms are expected to gradually push southward on Tue and produce
periods of MVFR and brief IFR at most of the terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Tue...A quasi-stationary front near the northern waters will
start to slide south by Tue. This boundary has been focusing large
convective clusters, and will continue to do so through Tue.
Generally southwest winds 10-15 knots can be expected ahead of the
front and then shifting to north/northeast behind the front Tue
afternoon in the north, although showers/storms will periodically
lead to variable wind directions. Seas 3-4 feet. Strong wind gusts
to around 35 knots will occur with some of the storms.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lascody
IMPACT WX....Cristaldi
Area Forecast Discussion.
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1052 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will track offshore of the
southeastern U.S. coast through Tuesday, while unseasonably cool
high pressure will builds/extends across the middle Atlantic region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...
Patchy light rain and drizzle continue to affect locations along the
I-95 corridor this evening, as surface low pressure is tracking east-
northeastward off of the Carolina coast. Expect this area of
associated very light rain/drizzle will begin to wane as the low
shift further offshore after 06-09Z tonight. However, another s/w
disturbance is approaching from the west, with another weak surface
low expected to develop along the offshore frontal zone. This will
allow for chances for rain to increase again across far southeastern
portions of the area. The last few runs of the HRRR have trended a
bit further to the south with the associated band of rain though,
thus, expect most of the area will remain dry after the light precip
end that is occurring now. Low temps are expected to be around 40-45
degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Monday...
The primary player in Tuesday`s weather will be the northern stream
short wave currently moving across the central Plains. This wave is
progged to move across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday
afternoon. While it may aid in the development of the coastal
showers early in the day, it will be progressive enough to keep most
of the rain confined near the coast and offshore. The other
features of note will be the series of weak surface lows off the
Carolina Coast, however they too will be too far offshore to have
a significant impact on central NC sensible weather.
By afternoon, look for west-northwesterly downslope flow to help dry
things out. The airmass moving in behind the aforementioned system
will support highs in the lower to mid 60s, which is about 5 or so
deg below normal.
For Tuesday night...the short wave that is currently over the
northern Rockies will dive SE, crossing the Carolinas late Tuesday
night. As it approaches, look for modest pressure falls and
moisture advection across the western Piedmont and foothills. In
fact, the GFS tries to suggest a few sprinkles could develop late
Tuesday night. However, forecast soundings, which are quite dry just
prior to this wave, would suggest difficultly in such precip
development. So for now, will keep the forecast dry, with lows in
the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Monday...
A long wave trof axis moves east of the area on Wednesday, with
upper ridging gradually amplifying as it progresses slowly east into
the early weekend. This will result in a dry weather with a strong
warming trend, with highs warming from the mid 60s on Wednesday to
the mid 70s on Thursday, and upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday and
Saturday. Morning mins will follow suit, from the mid 40s Thursday
morning to the low and mid 50s on Friday and Saturday mornings.
Meanwhile, further west, a vertically stacked and slow-moving
cyclone will be gaining strength as it meanders east across the
Midwest over the weekend. This system will reach the Ohio Valley
early next week. A cold front associated with the cyclone will race
out ahead of the slower upper trof, and will be moving across the
Tar Heel state over the weekend. Timing is a bit questionable, but
models are pretty consistent with passage during the heat of the day
on Sunday. Strong convection will be possible, as this front could
have more than just diurnal instability going for it. It should have
good vertical orientation between low level forcing and kinematics
all the way up to very strong diffluence at jet level. Thus will
continue ongoing forecast trend for a period of likely showers and
thunderstorms progressing across the area, with some timing tweaks
to tighten up the onset and most convectively active time frame on
Sunday. Highs Sunday will be dependent on cloud coverage ahead of
the front as well as timing of the front`s passage, but should reach
70 west to possibly 80 in the east. It will be cooler and dry behind
the front on Monday, with highs topping out in the 60 to 65 range
after morning lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Monday...
24 Hour TAF period: A clear split in cloud cover continues to be
evident across the region. Mountain wave SCT/BKN CIGS between 4 to
6kft are prevalent across the NW Piedmont, with a predominantly MVFR
CIG between 2 - 4kft eroding slowly east across the eastern Piedmont
and coastal plains sites. This eastward progression is expected to
continue overnight, with a slight retreat back west possible as a
shortwave spurs additional moisture into central NC. In general,
expect CIGS to fall area wide after dark, likely settling near the
VFR/MVFR split at KGSO/KINT, likely around 15kft at RDU, with LIFR
CIGS possible at both KFAY/KRWI. VSBYs could also drop briefly as
low level moisture increases near dawn. Gradual clearing is expected
early Tuesday, with all sites returning to VFR+ around midday.
Extended: Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Over
the weekend, look for a period of increased clouds, decreased cigs,
and possibility for some rain assoc with the approach and passage of
the next cold front.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...JJM/np
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
942 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The convection along the stationary front in our southeastern
marine areas has been moving to the east-northeast through the
evening. Current IR imagery supports the continuation of this
trend over the next few hours, with the latest HRRR run
suggesting a shift to the south overnight. Consequently, pops
were lowered in our northwestern areas and raised slightly in our
extreme southeastern areas to better align with current radar and
satellite imagery. Overnight forecast temperatures seemed
consistent with current observation and no changes were made.
Lows will range from the mid-50s in our northern areas to the
lower 60s in our southern areas.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [728 PM EDT]...
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
As an upper-level shortwave moves into the Southeast and a weak
southern stream wave moves through the central Gulf, favorable jet
positioning will result in divergence aloft and will develop a
stronger area of low pressure along a stalled frontal boundary in
the northeast Gulf. At the same time lee effects combined with
upper support from the northern stream wave will develop an
elongated low/trough just east of the Appalachians, extending
southwest into the Tri-State region. These two features will be
the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Expect mainly
light rain with the trough further upstream, and some heavier rain
and isolated storms along the Big Bend coast and southeast Big
Bend near the low along the front. Showers will push southeast of
the southeast Big Bend late in the evening on Tuesday, with zonal
flow aloft, ridging at the surface, and dry conditions through
Wednesday.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Low amplitude ridging and high pressure at the surface will
prevail through the end of the week, yielding dry conditions and
highs creeping towards the 80s. Through the weekend, a large upper
low will move through the eastern CONUS dragging a cold front
through the Southeast. The time of arrival of this front is still
not well agreed upon, but there is consensus of rain coming to an
end on Sunday night. Models suggest the presence of quite strong
low and deep layer shear, as well as some instability (depending
on timing). The severe potential will have to be monitored closely
as the event draws nearer and a better consensus is reached on
the time of arrival.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...
Conditions will deteriorate after sunset. MVFR CIGs will become
IFR after midnight. Rain showers will develop overnight. Rain
showers will continue through early afternoon maybe longer.
Conditions will be slow to improve tomorrow morning. MVFR will
return in the late morning hours. VFR will return mid afternoon.
.MARINE...
Cautionary conditions will overspread the northeast Gulf beginning
late tonight and lingering through Tuesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely through Tuesday night as well. Wednesday
through the end of the week will feature lighter winds and lower
seas, though the potential for brief periods of cautionary winds
is possible later in the week due to easterly nocturnal surges.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air will move in by Wednesday. Minimum RH values will remain
above the critical thresholds for red flag conditions. Low
dispersion values below 20 are possible tomorrow afternoon. Patchy
fog is possible in the morning hours. Otherwise no fire weather
concerns.
.HYDROLOGY...
Average rain amounts through mid-week will likely be an inch or
less across the southeast Big Bend, and less than a quarter inch
elsewhere. Next weekend, a strong frontal system could bring
widespread 1-2" rain amounts to the region. Flooding is not
expected through the end of the week.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 60 65 50 75 50 / 50 60 10 0 0
Panama City 61 67 55 72 55 / 50 50 0 0 0
Dothan 56 70 46 71 48 / 40 30 0 0 0
Albany 55 67 48 72 49 / 50 40 0 0 0
Valdosta 57 61 49 74 52 / 50 70 10 0 0
Cross City 63 68 52 75 51 / 80 80 30 0 0
Apalachicola 62 67 55 71 56 / 50 70 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey/Skeen
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
817 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.UPDATE...
A stalled frontal boundary remains over the northern Florida
peninsula this evening, with shower and thunderstorm activity
limited mainly to the Nature Coast and areas to the north and east.
As we head through tonight, some shortwave energy is forecast to pass
overhead, which should help generate additional showers and
thunderstorms over the region, mainly after midnight. What we are
seeing on radar right now looks to be a bit of a lull (at least for
our forecast area) before additional convection kicks up over the
Gulf and spreads over the northern half of the peninsula. This is
picked up fairly well by the HRRR and other hi-res guidance. At least
through tonight, the best shower and thunderstorm chances will be
from around Tampa Bay northward, then rain chances spread southward
into Tuesday. Some updates were made to the ongoing forecast, mainly
to incorporate radar trends into the PoP forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue into early tonight. MVFR or
lower cigs will then be possible for KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ later
tonight along with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW could experience some patchy fog along with the
lower cigs, bringing vsbys down to MVFR or lower as well. These
terminals will likely not see an increase in shower chances until
late morning or early afternoon. Winds will generally remain
southwesterly through the period for all sites, but will increase and
become gusty up to around 20-25 knots starting late tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds will continue across the waters tonight ahead of a
stalled frontal boundary, with wind speeds then increasing to
between 15 to 20 knots near the coast from around Tampa Bay
southward on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly late Tuesday and
Tuesday night as the frontal boundary moves southward, possibly
increasing to exercise caution levels for portions of the waters.
High pressure then moves over the region and shifts eastward
Wednesday through the end of the week, with winds becoming easterly
and then southeasterly.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 73 80 61 77 / 80 70 60 0
FMY 72 87 68 82 / 40 20 50 20
GIF 71 83 61 78 / 80 80 60 10
SRQ 73 82 64 77 / 50 60 60 10
BKV 69 79 56 77 / 80 70 60 0
SPG 72 80 62 79 / 70 70 60 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/Carlisle