Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/10/18

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
815 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... It will be chilly for the next few days, with light snow possible tonight into Tuesday, perhaps mixed with rain at times. It will turn warmer later in the week, though that will come with a chance of rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 815 PM Update... Weak area of light snow moving into very dry air this evening. Mesoscale models are struggling with the advancement of the snow across the southern tier and NEPA. All want to weaken the snow, and there`s some evidence on the radars that the precipitation is already beginning to withdraw back to the south. Have lowered the pops to likely across NEPA but expanded the chance pops to the north a bit to better account for the very light snow over western NY advancing to the east. In any case, it`s much to do about nothing as accumulations will be very light in any case. Previous discussion below. Tonight: A weak low pressure system will move through our region bringing an increase in clouds early this evening. Enough lift looks present for a period of mainly light snow to continue developing across Western PA then spread northeastward into northeast PA and the Southern Tier of New York this evening into the overnight. Snow amounts look rather light with the potential for an inch or so in the Poconos and lower amounts elsewhere. This system will be a quick mover with limited moisture. Lows will be in the 20`s to low 30`s overnight, so some slick spots may form on roads leading into the morning commute. Some uncertainty is present in how far north the snow will come northward tonight. The 3KM NAM, HREF and RGEM are more suppressed, keeping any snow confined to the Poconos. The majority of the operational models do bring the light snow into the Southern Tier along with keeping Rome and Syracuse dry. QPF and snowfall totals mainly revolved along a model blend acknowledging both outcomes. It would not be surprising to see drier air to win out in NY which would lead to even lower snow than forecasted. Another interesting tidbit is the HRRR and RAP have been hitting the Finger Lakes region with a quick burst of snow this evening, for now this looks overdone. Winds look to be under 10 mph. Tuesday: With the quick departing system, any snow will be quick to end in the morning. Skies should clear by early afternoon across the region from west to east. High temperatures are expected to be in the 40`s, melting any accumulations of snow from the overnight. Winds will be light in the morning then a look at bufkit data indicates the potential for winds to increase out of the northwest at around 10 mph in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 315 pm update... Conditions remain quiet Tuesday night, under clear-partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be cold once again, generally ranging in the 20s area-wide. On Wednesday, we begin to see an increase in both moisture and warm advection forcing, ahead of a frontal boundary across southern Ontario and perhaps far western and northern NY. This will result in an increase in cloud cover with time, and a few light showers could sneak into parts of CNY (mainly the Finger Lakes, Mohawk Valley, and southern Tug Hill regions) during the afternoon. Highs Wednesday afternoon will be in the 40s to near 50 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 pm update... Another surface front (of the warm frontal variety) is expected to approach CNY/NEPA later Wednesday night, then push across the forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening, tied to a surface wave tracking across Ontario/Quebec. This system will bring the likelihood of rain for much of CNY on Thursday, with generally more scattered/isolated showers elsewhere. Afterwards, things get more tricky as we head towards next weekend and early into the following week. There is good model agreement on the large-scale pattern, featuring a deep upper- level trough and strong surface low gradually translating across the middle of the country, and eventually towards the eastern Great Lakes/northeastern states by Monday. However, the northward advance of warm air out ahead of this storm and trailing cold front is very much in question, along with ultimate timing of the onset of steadier rain/showers. For now, we`ve continued to employ a model blend, which gravitates towards the ideas that warmer air may make it into at least parts of the forecast area (southern and western zones have the best shot at this) later Friday and Saturday, before getting shunted back southward by Sunday. We also think the steadiest rainfall will likely wait until at least sometime on Sunday or Sunday night, with the first part of the weekend (Saturday) likely ending up mainly dry. Stay tuned for later updates, as a tight temperature gradient is likely over the weekend (temperatures in the 40s/50s near and north of the warm front, with 60s/70s expected deeper into the warm sector). && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 730 pm update... Snow is moving into central NY and northeast PA attm. With the snow are IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs. Radar coverage and intensity not impressive. Despite this snow will get into the south central NY and AVP tonight. Have tempos for the snow this evening then a predominant IFR vsby and MVFR fuel alternate cig during the overnight. Snow ends around 10z so vsbys rise but cigs stay MVFR until around 14z in south central NY and 19z at AVP. After that VFR during the afternoon. SYR/RME should stay VFR for the next 24 hours. Most of the time cigs will be around 4k ft. Light and variable winds tonight. Tuesday northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts. Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday night through Thursday...Chance of restrictions in light rain/snow Wednesday night; rain likely Thursday. Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR; some restrictions possible in scattered rain showers for the NY terminals. Saturday...mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MWG NEAR TERM...DGM/MWG SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...TAC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
945 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal system will affect the area through Tuesday. High pressure will then prevail through Saturday. A strong cold front will approach on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... RAP and H3R suggest two areas of light rain will develop overnight. One developing along the Georgia coast and spreading northeast into the Charleston Metro Area with the second developing from roughly Metter and Allendale northeast to Walterboro. These two areas will gradually consolidate into a single, larger area of light-moderate rainfall around daybreak. Opted to make some minor adjustments to pops based on this trend delaying the higher pops for Charleston Metro and far inland areas until after 6 AM, which is second period of the forecast. No other changes were made for the late evening update. 09/21z surface analysis showed in-situ cold air damming firmly in place across the Southeast U.S. with 1011 hPa low pressure centered about 175 miles east of Bulls Bay. Weak isentropic downglide will give to strengthening isentropic assent atop the wedge overnight as the low-level jet intensifies with the approach of shortwave energy across the Tennessee Valley. Light rains are expected to break out across interior Southeast Georgia by late evening/early Tuesday morning, then expand northeast into Southeast South Carolina prior to daybreak as additional upper forcing with the right entrance region of jet streak embedded within the polar jet approaches. Short term guidance is pretty consistent in the development of a fairly large area of light to locally moderate showers in the 3-6 AM timeframe. 70-90% pops look reasonable during this time. RAP guidance suggests some elevated instability will work into the far southern zones overnight with Showalter indices going as low as -1 to -2C. This could support a few elevated tstms across portions of the Georgia coastal counties. Lows from the mid 40s across northern portions of Dorchester and Berkeley Counties to the lower 50s across Southeast Georgia look good. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: The mid/upper levels will consist of an approaching trough in the morning, with it`s axis and an associated shortwave stretching from roughly the Great Lakes region southward into the Southern Plains. The trough will move eastward, with it`s axis and shortwave passing over us after midnight. At the surface, weak low pressure associated with a coastal system will pass just offshore from the morning into the afternoon. Most of the system itself will brush the coastline. However, deep moisture will be in place at the beginning of the forecast. PWATs exceeding 1.5" will be along our far southern coastal area, tapering to ~1.15" as one head northward and inland. The result is stratiform precipitation along the coastline in the morning. POPs taper as one heads inland. The QPF reflects this as well. By the afternoon, the system will be moving away. Showers will rapidly end as drier air builds from the west. The nighttime will be a dry time. High temperatures will be below normal. Low temperatures will be near normal. Wednesday and Thursday: High pressure will dominate the local weather with dry conditions. High temperatures will moderate each day, being a few degrees below normal on Wednesday and then normal Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A deep ridge will persist Thursday night into Saturday before a strong upper trough moves in Sunday. A cold front is expected to cross the area Sunday or Sunday night, potentially bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm temperatures expected Friday through Sunday, then potentially cooler Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR cigs will prevail into Tuesday morning before slowly improving. Cigs are expected to drop to alternate minimums at at both KSAV and KCHS after 05z and persist through 13-14z. Showers are expected to break out by 06z across interior Southeast Georgia and spread into the terminals after 09z. Limited vsbys to MVFR for now, but localized conditions into IFR thresholds is possible in heavier convective elements. Conditions will improve by late morning with MVFR conditions expected to prevail during the afternoon hours. There is a small risk for tstms at KSAV, but the probabilities of occurrence are just too low to justify a mention at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: A coastal system could bring flight restrictions through Tuesday evening, mainly for KSAV. && .MARINE... Tonight: Early evening buoy reports indicate seas were running about a foot too low. Raise overnight wave heights accordingly. Seas have been as high as 7-8 ft at 41004, which was not captured by NWPS or WW4 output. If this trend continues, a Small Craft Advisory may need to be issued for the Georgia offshore leg later tonight. Tuesday through Saturday: Weak surface low pressure associated with a coastal system will pass just offshore Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, causing the pressure gradient to briefly become enhanced. Expect increased winds during the morning and early afternoon. Gusts should stay under 25 kt for the waters within 20 nm. However, gusts could briefly reach or exceed 25 kt for the GA waters beyond 20 nm (AMZ374). Additionally, the wave models hint seas could reach or exceed 6 ft in conjunction with the wind gusts. Given the brief timing window of these conditions and the fact that the models trended down slightly with the winds, we opted to hold off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory until the next set of model runs comes in. Regardless, conditions will improve later Tuesday as the low departs and high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will then bring tranquil conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Friday into Saturday the southerly flow strengthens in response to a building Bermuda ridge. With inland temperatures pushing 80 degrees, an afternoon sea breeze enhancement is expected along the coast including Charleston Harbor. Winds on Sunday look a good bit stronger as a strong cold front approaches, tightening the southerly gradient. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably cold weather for early April will continue into the middle of this week. A weak disturbance will moves east of the region by early Tuesday. Temperatures will warm slowly but significantly by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The narrow band of light snow that dropped an inch or so of snow on some grassy surfaces, is finally starting to become more disorganized. Water vapor loop shows drier air starting to move in from the west as the jet core slides off to the SE of the local area and we begin to be affected by the subsidence in the left entrance region. The RAP and HRRR continue to shrink the snow overnight, but lingering light snow/snow showers will linger into the wee hours until the trough axis moves east. Another cold night is in store with lows ranging from around 20 over the Northern Mountains to around freezing over the Lower Susq Valley. These will average about 5-10 deg colder than it should be for the second week of April. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tuesday looks much nicer, with a 7-10 kt WNW breeze that could gust into the mid teens at times. Temps will be 5-8F higher than today (Monday). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term period starts off Tuesday night into Wednesday with minimum temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. A fast moving system for Thursday may bring a few showers. A break from the cold air will come Friday into the weekend with the latest models brining in warmer air into the region. Have highs in the low 70s currently though NBM and other ensembles continue to trend warmer. Temperatures Sunday will drop out ahead of an approaching low. Less confidence in the timing of this system but showers are expected Sunday night into Monday. Cold air behind the system early next week will drop temps again. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak area of low pressure passing south of Pennsylvania will produce occasional light snow and lowering cigs across central Pa late this evening. The light snow should exit the area late tonight, as the low pressure system passes off the east coast. However, residual low level moisture and light upsloping flow will create lingering lows cigs/fog across the Laurel Highlands, where confidence in IFR/LIFR conditions is high tonight. Elsewhere, IFR conditions remain possible overnight, but confidence not as high. A drier northwest flow will overspread the region Tuesday, as high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. Model soundings and SREF probability charts support a high confidence of all areas returning to VFR conditions by around 13Z Tuesday morning. Outlook... Wed...Evening low cigs possible NW Mtns. Thu...AM rain/low cigs possible N Mtns. Fri...Slight chance of AM low cigs N Mtns. Sat...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Ceru/Martin AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 A short wave trough pushing across the CWA will exit the area this afternoon bringing with it the much needed precipitation pushing south and east into south central Kansas and into Oklahoma. A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out for this afternoon as well with the HRRR picking up a few spotty areas but not likely due to not having the needed lift and low level drying that will take place through the day time heating hours this afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the north but will slowly turn more out of the south heading into tonight with return flow expected as high pressure pushes into the CWA from the north and northeast. High temperatures will struggle to push into the 50s this afternoon for the eastern half of the CWA where cloud cover will remain most of the afternoon, but the western half of the area will push into the mid to upper 50s where there is already clearing taking place as seen on IR. With clearing skies and winds relatively light, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s for most of the CWA with mist and fog possible across the southeastern counties due to the previous precipitation over the past 24 hours and having more of a southeast flow at the surface. Radiational cooling over night will be stronger in these areas allowing the temperature to reach closer to the dew point as well. The rest of the CWA will most likely not see these impacts with more dry air advection occurring with the south to south west low level flow. Winds will pick up out of the southwest for the entire area Tuesday afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens due to lee side troughing starting to develop along the Colorado and Kansas state line with gusts up to 20-25mph. This downsloping, warming air will drop relative humidity values into the upper teens and low 20s with temperatures sky rocketing into the 70s. No other significant weather impacts are expected nor will be forecasted in the near term through Tuesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 A warming trend will accelerate for the middle of the week starting Wednesday off with mild temperatures in the 40s pushing strongly into 80s for the entire CWA with 90s possible along the Oklahoma border from Elkhart to Liberal and Ashland. Warming southwest wind will help to aid in this warming trend with winds in the teens and gusts up into the 20s. A low will track across the area with little effect to the area besides a brief change in wind direction before return flow back to the southwest over Wednesday night into Thursday. The pressure gradient behind the low will amplify through the day as lee side troughing redevelops and intensifies along the Colorado border with gusts pushing into the 40mph range. The downsloping, dry southwest low level flow will help aid in the warmest day this calendar year with highs pushing well into the upper 80s and 90s as far north as Garden City to Dodge City and Greensburg. Enjoy the summer time warmth while it lasts as a short wave trough will begin to push through the area Thursday night into Friday dropping a fairly strong cold front through Friday morning. Models indicate a little disagreement with the timing of how soon it will affect the area, but strong winds out of the northwest behind it are expected through all consensus. The timing will affect how cold or cool it will be for Friday morning with 40s expected for north and western counties and 50s for south and eastern counties or the CWA. There will not be too much of a warm up for Friday pushing into the upper 50s to mid 60s west to east. Post frontal troughing on the backside of the low will give low PoPs into the 20s for most of the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning staying as liquid precipitation with soundings showing warm layers in the boundary layer above the surface. No frozen or mixed precipitation is expected at this time. The precipitation, if any, as models are not consistent with each on it happening, will be minimal at best with no accumulations expected will end before sunrise Saturday morning. There is little confidence in precipitation falling as this is again another northwest flow system being dryer for the CWA due to not enough upper level divergence down the backside of the ridge situated across the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. Saturday will start off on the cold side just below freezing with reinforced cold air advection through the weekend starting off in the upper 20s to low 30s seeing a warmup, though, into upper 40s to low 50s. Sunday will start in the 20s below freezing as well, but a warming trend is in store with southwesterly flow returning for southwestern Kansas with temperatures pushing into the 60s Sunday and 70s for Monday with dry conditions expected to continue into early next week with the drought expected to worsen over this time even with what little precipitation may fall Friday night. Broad upper level ridging looks to be the driver of the tail end of the weekend`s weather and into next week with dry, warmer air pumping back into the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the overnight period with a few mid level clouds this evening giving away to mostly clear skies overnight. Winds will generally be from the northeast this evening shifting to more of a southerly direction overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Fire weather will be minimal for the remainder of this afternoon but will return to elevated for Tuesday with a stronger southwest, dry flow in store with wind gusts up to 25mph and relative humidity values down to 20 percent range. Wednesday looks to be the start of a string of fire weather days with elevated to significant conditions expected under dryer conditions with relative humidity values down to 10-15 percent. Wind speeds are uncertain at this time with the EC showing the low track across the CWA with minimal winds, but if the track shifts north or south, it will be in the windier sector warranting a fire weather watch to be issued. Thursday will be the main day for concern with widespread extreme conditions expected with much higher winds out of the southwest ahead of an approaching frontal boundary tightening the gradient over the CWA expected gusts up to 50-60 mph and relative humidity down in the 10-15 percent range once again with temperatures pushing into the upper 80s to low 90s once again. Fire danger for Friday heading into the weekend looks to be elevated to significant as well behind the aforementioned cold front that will push through Thursday night into Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 34 72 48 87 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 34 73 44 86 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 37 74 48 89 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 38 75 48 91 / 10 0 0 0 HYS 32 72 45 83 / 10 0 0 0 P28 33 70 47 84 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lowe LONG TERM...Lowe AVIATION...Hovorka_42 FIRE WEATHER...Lowe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Subsidence behind a shortwave trough axis will bring any remaining sprinkles/flurries over east central IL shortly as the shortwave exits the area to the east. Overnight, high pressure will settle southeastward toward Missouri with a ridge axis extending into central IL. The flow around the ridge will be light north- northwesterly, almost light and variable. Due to the remaining moisture from last night`s snow and the light winds, there will be potential for fog development overnight. Current HRRR has a band of fog developing starting around 3 a.m. from Bloomington to Decatur to Effingham and Olney and expanding only slightly through sunrise, roughly where forecast winds become light and variable. Have patchy fog in forecast throughout the forecast area, as the actual placement of fog still appears to be in question, and possibly scattered over the entire area. Fog should dissipate by around 9 a.m. Temperatures ranging from mid 20s in the northwest to low 30s in the southeast look good. No significant updates needed this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Despite high pressure advancing into Illinois, a 500mb shortwave and trough axis will continue to trigger some spotty rain/snow showers into early evening across central IL. The strongest DPVA will brush across the NE half of our forecast area /FA/, but HRRR and NAMnest show somewhat wider coverage of showers. Have included sprinkles/flurries already in a majority of the FA early this evening, then decreasing eastward through 9pm. The next concern in the short term is possible clearing and fog development. We melted nearly all of the snow that fell last night, so residual boundary layer moisture will be elevated above what the models can resolve. Clearing may be limited to NW and N counties. However, think patchy fog will be possible later tonight in most of our area, especially where higher snowfall occurred. Fog should generally lift shortly after 9 am, then clearing of the clouds should briefly progress from west to east before mid-level clouds redevelop in the heating of the day. Surface winds will begin to shift from NW to W, starting a warming trend. Despite possible limited insolation tomorrow afternoon, think that high temperatures will still climb about 10 deg above this afternoon. Highs should reach the upper 40s to around 50, which is still below normal. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 A pattern shift in the upper level flow starting Tuesday night will usher in warmer conditions for the last half of the week. Rising heights aloft and a return of southerly flow at the surface will fuel temperatures climbing above normal for the first time in a while. There will be limited sunshine for Wed due to a weak surface trough passing across the area, but highs should top out in the 60s across the board, with upper 60s toward Jacksonville. Some light rain showers are forecast to progress across northern Illinois Wed evening, as a warm frontogenesis produces some forcing for precipitation. The warm fronts parent low is projected to advance from Nebraska Wed afternoon to northern Lower Michigan by Thursday morning. The best chance for precip into our forecast area from that system looks to be Wed evening, when a few sprinkles develop as far south as Galesburg to El Paso. As the low departs to the northeast, a cold front will approach our NW CWA, then stall out from west to east across our northern counties. Where that occurs will control how warm our northern FA becomes on Thursday. For now bumped up highs above guidance in the southern half of the CWA, but uncertainty is high to where the front will settle out. There could even be a few rain showers that develop along the cold front on Thursday, but the consensus supports dry for now. The stalled front will lift north as a warm front Thursday night, prompting an increase in low level warm advection. Increasing instability due to moisture advection will increase rain chances slightly Thursday night. There could even be a few rumbles of thunder, so we added isolated storms for late Thur night and Friday morning. Stronger instability and forcing for precip will come Friday afternoon and Friday night, when a 100KT 300mb jet couples with a low level jet over the warm sector. At this point, the severe threat looks to be SW of Illinois during that time frame, but thunderstorm chances will be higher during that time. One change with the late week system in the latest model suite is a slowing of the cold frontal passage. The ECMWF actually takes a surface low across the northern half of our CWA late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, while the GFS moves the low across northern Illinois. Have kept thunder in our eastern counties Saturday morning for now, but the ECMWF solution would support continued threat for storms Saturday afternoon. The GFS shows a relatively dry day on Saturday, but that is inconsistent with its previous solutions and with the dynamics in the area. Therefore, leaning toward the ECMWF for the weekend weather progression. Both models still show a pronounced cooling for Saturday night through Monday, with scattered showers possible. There could even be a period of light snow for areas north of I-72 late Saturday night into Sunday morning, before snow changes back to rain by Noon Sunday. There is agreement in the extended that temperatures Sunday and Monday will be below normal, with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Primarily MVFR conditions across central IL terminals this evening as cigs around 3000 ft AGL are predominant. A few sprinkles or flurries are possible the first few hours after 00Z this evening, although no accumulation or vsby reduction is expected. Overnight, partial clearing will allow for patchy fog development by morning. Setup for fog does not appear ideal, however copious moisture should allow for at least some vsby reduction. Have included mention of fog with MVFR vsby 10Z-14Z. Scattered cloud cover around 3000 feet looks to develop Tuesday afternoon. Winds N around 5 kts becoming light and variable by morning, eventually switching to W 5-10 kts Tuesday afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...37 SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...37
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
929 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY... .UPDATE... Band of east west oriented showers and thunderstorms along stalled warm front have moved little over the course of the evening. 2 to 4 inches of rain has already fallen from roughly Newberry to Palm Coast, and IR satellite imagery trend over the last hour has shown broad area of cooling cloud tops and a few overshooting tops across Gilchrist and western Alachua counties. Heavy rainfall will likely continue in this area over the next few hours. Coverage is expected to spread northward overnight, and upstream convection continues across the Gulf and will keep the potential for additional widespread rainfall through the overnight hours, especially south of I-10. Flood Watch remains in effect through late tomorrow night for counties across north central Florida. Latest HRRR runs have been trending southward with the axis of heaviest precip early tomorrow morning, but have kept overall trends the same for Tuesday at this time. && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue south of a GNV to SGJ line, and coverage is expected to increase and move northward through the overnight hours. Most ceilings have dropped to IFR this evening, and are expected to remain there for the most part overnight. Bases may increase to low end MVFR overnight, but will likely be accompanied by showers or thunderstorms. By mid to late morning, confidence is medium that bases could creep up above IFR, but will likely && .MARINE... A warm front will stall across the waters tonight and a wave of low pressure will move along the front over the waters Tuesday. Onshore winds will continue across the waters and widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow night. Winds could approach Small Craft Advisory criteria (20 knots or greater) particularly over the offshore waters. Onshore flow will continue and conditions will improve Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the waters. Rip Currents: Moderate risk expected Tuesday as onshore flow and swells increase. .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rainfall will continue this evening across the southern zones, and Flood Watch was issued earlier this evening for Gilchrist county eastward to St. Johns. 2 to 4 inches of rain has already fallen across a portion of this area, and waves of rainfall will continue through tomorrow night. Localized street flooding is possible south of I-10, and the South Fork of the Black Creek as well as forecast points along the Santa Fe could see action stage flooding sometime tomorrow or into Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 53 63 46 75 / 50 40 0 0 SSI 56 62 52 69 / 60 60 20 0 JAX 59 65 51 73 / 70 80 40 0 SGJ 63 68 54 71 / 70 80 70 0 GNV 63 70 51 77 / 90 70 50 0 OCF 66 74 53 78 / 80 80 60 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Alachua-Bradford-Clay- Flagler-Gilchrist-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Elsenheimer/Shuler/Nelson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
940 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .UPDATE... Tonight...Frontal boundary just to our north has been focusing numerous showers/storms this evening and the GFS shows the front oscillating near our northern areas. So our likely PoPs there look good and may even need to be raised. Farther south is trickier as the HRRR has been showing convection propagating down into central sections after midnight. Conditions aloft look more supportive of sustaining convection during the overnight as mid level temps cool and broadly diffluent upper level flow develops ahead of shortwave trough. The main concern with the showers/storms will be considerable water ponding in low lying areas from local 2-3 inch rainfall amounts. Since the HRRR has been so persistent in advancing the convection southward, have bumped up PoPs into central sections. The large scale models hold the frontal boundary near our northern areas, so think that the convection propagating southward will run out of gas southward from Orlando and Cape Canaveral in the overnight hours. With partly cloudy skies in the south and very moist low levels, have added mention of patchy late night fog. Tuesday (Previous Discussion)...Conditions become more unstable aloft as a digging shortwave trough induces weak cyclonic flow over the southeast. Consequently, the flow becomes considerably more energetic with several vort maxes passing across the northern half of the CWA beginning early Tuesday morning. Expect numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the northeastern Gulf and push onshore, mainly over the I-4 corridor. With time, the old surface boundary will begin to sag south through the area, acting as the focal point for showers and storms from Brevard/Osceola county south. Maintained categorical PoPs (80%+) from Melbourne-Kissimmee north and likely (60-70%) elsewhere. Some breaks in the sun, at least across Okeechobee/Osceola counties and the Space/Treasure Coasts should bring temperatures up into the mid 80s before cloud cover and precip chances increase. Unidirectional flow out of the west in the low levels, enhanced a bit aloft, suggest a chance for strong wind gusts tomorrow especially if surface instability can be maximized through breaks in the cloud cover. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the central peninsula under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. && .AVIATION... Large mass of showers/storms along quasi-stationary frontal boundary has been occurring just north of Lake/Volusia counties late this evening, with some activity affecting our far northern sections. This convection is not likely to completely end with loss of daytime heating as conditions aloft become more supportive overnight. Therefore, have a mention of vicinity thunder northward from KISM- KMCO-KTIX. Timing is not certain enough to add tempo groups, but the most likely affected terminals should be KLEE-KSFB-KDAB. Skies may stay partially cleared enough in the south for patchy late night fog KVRB-KFPR. Considerable cloudiness and showers along with isolated storms are expected to gradually push southward on Tue and produce periods of MVFR and brief IFR at most of the terminals. && .MARINE... Tonight-Tue...A quasi-stationary front near the northern waters will start to slide south by Tue. This boundary has been focusing large convective clusters, and will continue to do so through Tue. Generally southwest winds 10-15 knots can be expected ahead of the front and then shifting to north/northeast behind the front Tue afternoon in the north, although showers/storms will periodically lead to variable wind directions. Seas 3-4 feet. Strong wind gusts to around 35 knots will occur with some of the storms. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lascody IMPACT WX....Cristaldi
Area Forecast Discussion.
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1052 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems will track offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast through Tuesday, while unseasonably cool high pressure will builds/extends across the middle Atlantic region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Monday... Patchy light rain and drizzle continue to affect locations along the I-95 corridor this evening, as surface low pressure is tracking east- northeastward off of the Carolina coast. Expect this area of associated very light rain/drizzle will begin to wane as the low shift further offshore after 06-09Z tonight. However, another s/w disturbance is approaching from the west, with another weak surface low expected to develop along the offshore frontal zone. This will allow for chances for rain to increase again across far southeastern portions of the area. The last few runs of the HRRR have trended a bit further to the south with the associated band of rain though, thus, expect most of the area will remain dry after the light precip end that is occurring now. Low temps are expected to be around 40-45 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Monday... The primary player in Tuesday`s weather will be the northern stream short wave currently moving across the central Plains. This wave is progged to move across the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday afternoon. While it may aid in the development of the coastal showers early in the day, it will be progressive enough to keep most of the rain confined near the coast and offshore. The other features of note will be the series of weak surface lows off the Carolina Coast, however they too will be too far offshore to have a significant impact on central NC sensible weather. By afternoon, look for west-northwesterly downslope flow to help dry things out. The airmass moving in behind the aforementioned system will support highs in the lower to mid 60s, which is about 5 or so deg below normal. For Tuesday night...the short wave that is currently over the northern Rockies will dive SE, crossing the Carolinas late Tuesday night. As it approaches, look for modest pressure falls and moisture advection across the western Piedmont and foothills. In fact, the GFS tries to suggest a few sprinkles could develop late Tuesday night. However, forecast soundings, which are quite dry just prior to this wave, would suggest difficultly in such precip development. So for now, will keep the forecast dry, with lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM Monday... A long wave trof axis moves east of the area on Wednesday, with upper ridging gradually amplifying as it progresses slowly east into the early weekend. This will result in a dry weather with a strong warming trend, with highs warming from the mid 60s on Wednesday to the mid 70s on Thursday, and upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday and Saturday. Morning mins will follow suit, from the mid 40s Thursday morning to the low and mid 50s on Friday and Saturday mornings. Meanwhile, further west, a vertically stacked and slow-moving cyclone will be gaining strength as it meanders east across the Midwest over the weekend. This system will reach the Ohio Valley early next week. A cold front associated with the cyclone will race out ahead of the slower upper trof, and will be moving across the Tar Heel state over the weekend. Timing is a bit questionable, but models are pretty consistent with passage during the heat of the day on Sunday. Strong convection will be possible, as this front could have more than just diurnal instability going for it. It should have good vertical orientation between low level forcing and kinematics all the way up to very strong diffluence at jet level. Thus will continue ongoing forecast trend for a period of likely showers and thunderstorms progressing across the area, with some timing tweaks to tighten up the onset and most convectively active time frame on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be dependent on cloud coverage ahead of the front as well as timing of the front`s passage, but should reach 70 west to possibly 80 in the east. It will be cooler and dry behind the front on Monday, with highs topping out in the 60 to 65 range after morning lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 730 PM Monday... 24 Hour TAF period: A clear split in cloud cover continues to be evident across the region. Mountain wave SCT/BKN CIGS between 4 to 6kft are prevalent across the NW Piedmont, with a predominantly MVFR CIG between 2 - 4kft eroding slowly east across the eastern Piedmont and coastal plains sites. This eastward progression is expected to continue overnight, with a slight retreat back west possible as a shortwave spurs additional moisture into central NC. In general, expect CIGS to fall area wide after dark, likely settling near the VFR/MVFR split at KGSO/KINT, likely around 15kft at RDU, with LIFR CIGS possible at both KFAY/KRWI. VSBYs could also drop briefly as low level moisture increases near dawn. Gradual clearing is expected early Tuesday, with all sites returning to VFR+ around midday. Extended: Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Friday. Over the weekend, look for a period of increased clouds, decreased cigs, and possibility for some rain assoc with the approach and passage of the next cold front. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...JJM/np
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
942 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The convection along the stationary front in our southeastern marine areas has been moving to the east-northeast through the evening. Current IR imagery supports the continuation of this trend over the next few hours, with the latest HRRR run suggesting a shift to the south overnight. Consequently, pops were lowered in our northwestern areas and raised slightly in our extreme southeastern areas to better align with current radar and satellite imagery. Overnight forecast temperatures seemed consistent with current observation and no changes were made. Lows will range from the mid-50s in our northern areas to the lower 60s in our southern areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION [728 PM EDT]... .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... As an upper-level shortwave moves into the Southeast and a weak southern stream wave moves through the central Gulf, favorable jet positioning will result in divergence aloft and will develop a stronger area of low pressure along a stalled frontal boundary in the northeast Gulf. At the same time lee effects combined with upper support from the northern stream wave will develop an elongated low/trough just east of the Appalachians, extending southwest into the Tri-State region. These two features will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Expect mainly light rain with the trough further upstream, and some heavier rain and isolated storms along the Big Bend coast and southeast Big Bend near the low along the front. Showers will push southeast of the southeast Big Bend late in the evening on Tuesday, with zonal flow aloft, ridging at the surface, and dry conditions through Wednesday. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... Low amplitude ridging and high pressure at the surface will prevail through the end of the week, yielding dry conditions and highs creeping towards the 80s. Through the weekend, a large upper low will move through the eastern CONUS dragging a cold front through the Southeast. The time of arrival of this front is still not well agreed upon, but there is consensus of rain coming to an end on Sunday night. Models suggest the presence of quite strong low and deep layer shear, as well as some instability (depending on timing). The severe potential will have to be monitored closely as the event draws nearer and a better consensus is reached on the time of arrival. .AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]... Conditions will deteriorate after sunset. MVFR CIGs will become IFR after midnight. Rain showers will develop overnight. Rain showers will continue through early afternoon maybe longer. Conditions will be slow to improve tomorrow morning. MVFR will return in the late morning hours. VFR will return mid afternoon. .MARINE... Cautionary conditions will overspread the northeast Gulf beginning late tonight and lingering through Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Tuesday night as well. Wednesday through the end of the week will feature lighter winds and lower seas, though the potential for brief periods of cautionary winds is possible later in the week due to easterly nocturnal surges. .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will move in by Wednesday. Minimum RH values will remain above the critical thresholds for red flag conditions. Low dispersion values below 20 are possible tomorrow afternoon. Patchy fog is possible in the morning hours. Otherwise no fire weather concerns. .HYDROLOGY... Average rain amounts through mid-week will likely be an inch or less across the southeast Big Bend, and less than a quarter inch elsewhere. Next weekend, a strong frontal system could bring widespread 1-2" rain amounts to the region. Flooding is not expected through the end of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 60 65 50 75 50 / 50 60 10 0 0 Panama City 61 67 55 72 55 / 50 50 0 0 0 Dothan 56 70 46 71 48 / 40 30 0 0 0 Albany 55 67 48 72 49 / 50 40 0 0 0 Valdosta 57 61 49 74 52 / 50 70 10 0 0 Cross City 63 68 52 75 51 / 80 80 30 0 0 Apalachicola 62 67 55 71 56 / 50 70 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Godsey/Skeen SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM...Harrigan AVIATION...McD MARINE...Harrigan FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...Harrigan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
817 PM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 .UPDATE... A stalled frontal boundary remains over the northern Florida peninsula this evening, with shower and thunderstorm activity limited mainly to the Nature Coast and areas to the north and east. As we head through tonight, some shortwave energy is forecast to pass overhead, which should help generate additional showers and thunderstorms over the region, mainly after midnight. What we are seeing on radar right now looks to be a bit of a lull (at least for our forecast area) before additional convection kicks up over the Gulf and spreads over the northern half of the peninsula. This is picked up fairly well by the HRRR and other hi-res guidance. At least through tonight, the best shower and thunderstorm chances will be from around Tampa Bay northward, then rain chances spread southward into Tuesday. Some updates were made to the ongoing forecast, mainly to incorporate radar trends into the PoP forecast. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue into early tonight. MVFR or lower cigs will then be possible for KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ later tonight along with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW could experience some patchy fog along with the lower cigs, bringing vsbys down to MVFR or lower as well. These terminals will likely not see an increase in shower chances until late morning or early afternoon. Winds will generally remain southwesterly through the period for all sites, but will increase and become gusty up to around 20-25 knots starting late tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will continue across the waters tonight ahead of a stalled frontal boundary, with wind speeds then increasing to between 15 to 20 knots near the coast from around Tampa Bay southward on Tuesday. Winds will shift to northerly late Tuesday and Tuesday night as the frontal boundary moves southward, possibly increasing to exercise caution levels for portions of the waters. High pressure then moves over the region and shifts eastward Wednesday through the end of the week, with winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 73 80 61 77 / 80 70 60 0 FMY 72 87 68 82 / 40 20 50 20 GIF 71 83 61 78 / 80 80 60 10 SRQ 73 82 64 77 / 50 60 60 10 BKV 69 79 56 77 / 80 70 60 0 SPG 72 80 62 79 / 70 70 60 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/Carlisle