Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/03/18

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .DISCUSSION... The main forecast concern will be gusty northeasterly winds and their influence regarding blowing snow and temperatures across the forecast area over the next couple of days. Otherwise, fairly quiet with no large storms anticipated for Northern Alaska. Latest model solutions consistency and agreement remains good through early Thursday before solutions start to diverge in the mid to late forecast period. Aloft...At H500, strong 567 dam upper level ridge centered over the Chukotsk Peninsula and extending over the Bering Sea and Bristol Bay will shift north towards the Eastern Siberian Sea through Wednesday and then will stayed centered there while building to the east over the Arctic Ocean and Canadian Arctic Archipelago through Friday. Meanwhile, a 526 dam low will move south along the Alaska-Canada border tonight and then will merge with a 522 dam low over the SE AK panhandle early Tuesday morning. A strong shortwave will dive south from the high Arctic and over the North Slope this evening, then south over the Interior by Tuesday morning pushing the upper level ridge west. The aforementioned upper low over the SE AK panhandle will slide west along the Gulf of Alaska through early Wednesday, settling over the Kuskokwim Delta by late Wednesday afternoon. This low will then slowly move towards the Yukon Delta by Thursday afternoon. Surface...A 1046 mb ridge of high pressure centered near 77W 161W extends southwest over eastern Siberia and northern Bering Sea with the center building to 1052 mb as it shifts closer to the Arctic Coast through Wednesday and then will weaken as it shifts east towards the Canadian Archipelago through Friday. As a result of the high building and shifting closer to the Arctic Coast and a weak low over the northern Gulf of Alaska, the pressure gradient over Northern Alaska will increase, especially over areas of higher terrain in the Interior, Seward Peninsula, and the western Brooks Range. Should see the pressure gradient relax as surface high pressure weakens. Eastern and Central Interior...Mostly clear skies across the area will persist into the evening before seeing an increase in cloud coverage tonight as a strong shortwave drops south. Could see some flurries over the next couple of days under the influence of the upper level low and trough. As the upper level low shift west along the Gulf of Alaska coast, a colder, below normal H850 airmass will shift west over the area. Will see H850 temps drop to between 15 and 21 below, coldest being over the northern Interior. This will result in cold mornings over the next couple days especially for areas that remain clear. By Wednesday, warmer return southeast flow will develop and persist through Friday. As the pressure gradient increases over the Interior Tuesday evening, will see winds pick up and become gusty through Thursday afternoon, especially over the hills and summits in the Interior. Given the number of warm days lately allowing for some melting and settling, not sure of the condition of the snowpack and whether it will be conducive to blowing and drifting to the point of generating low visibilities. However, the combination of gusty northeast winds and cold temperatures may result in cold wind chill values Tuesday night into Wednesday. West Coast and Western Interior...Low ceilings in stratus persists over Gambell and to the north of the island with fog quickly dissipating over the last hour or so. As stated in previous discussion, the HRRR has been preforming exceptionally well over the last couple of days. Thus will be expecting areas of fog to develop again over Saint Lawrence Island and then spreading east over Norton Sound as well as the Yukon Delta coast tonight, then dissipating by noon tomorrow. The pressure gradient will tighten considerably to the south of the western Brooks Range tonight over zones 208 and 217. Will keep the winter weather advisories for blowing snow out for these two zones as low visibilities in blowing snow are likely with gusty northeast winds tonight through late Wednesday evening. The pressure gradient will tighten up resulting in gusty northeast winds developing Tuesday elsewhere on the West coast and Western Interior. Temperatures will be cooler over the next couple of days as a colder H850 airmass moves overhead. Should see temperatures warm some by Friday. North Slope and Brooks Range...Surface high pressure sitting to the north of the Arctic Coast will allow fairly quiet weather to prevail across the area. Northerly gap winds are expected to persist over the western Brooks Range through Thursday. A leeside trough is expected to develop north of the eastern Brooks Range by mid week, generating southerly gap winds that will persist into early this weekend. This leeside trough will also cause the pressure gradient to tighten locally over the eastern Beaufort Sea coast that will result in gusty east winds to around 45 mph Wednesday night through early Friday morning. The HRRR is indicating that areas of fog will develop and advect inland from Barrow east after midnight tonight with fog burning off by noon tomorrow. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ208-AKZ217. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200. && $$ LTH APR 18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
944 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching warm front will bring rain back into the region for Tuesday. A light wintry mix is possible as the precipitation begins early in the morning. A cold front will bring additional showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, late Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Precipitation will develop across the region toward sunrise as a warm frontal boundary moves closer then through the region on Tuesday. The warm advection associated with this feature is fairly strong with most of the event expected to be in the form of rain. Thermal fields can support a transition from a light wintry mix of snow or freezing rain...especially in the cold air damming favored counties from the Mohawk Valley to the higher terrain of the Western Catskills and Northern Poconos for an hour or two. Given time of year, there should be little impact on roads from light amounts of freezing rain. No plans for a Winter Advisory at this time with only chance PoPs for FZRA. With the mid evening update, we scaled back the timing of the precipitation onset some based on the latest mesoscale model runs. The latest runs of the RAP and HRRR would keep almost all of the region dry through the morning commute. These models can have a slow bias, so the updated forecast keeps open the chance for light wintry precipitation during the morning commute. Widespread rain then occurs much of the day until warm front surges north of CNY/NEPA. Have trended rain chances down in a gradient from north-south during the afternoon and much of Tuesday night, and went back to using showers to indicate more limited chances of precip on Tuesday night. Region will be entrenched in the warm sector, thus have a non-diurnal temperature trend with lows only a few degrees off from the Tuesday high temperatures. Models suggest some elevated instability developing ahead of the advancing cold front which comes through Wednesday. Will introduce a couple of hours mention of thunder potential late Tuesday night to account for this. QPF amounts focus on our northern zones with amounts next 48 hours around an inch, or so. This may cause some ponding of water in some areas, and will likely see rises again on area streams and the smaller rivers. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Powerful cold front enters the area Wednesday morning and sweeps east across the area. Models have elevated instability near the front may result in the first spring thunder along the front. Front should be through much of the area by midday and be followed strong caa and snow showers. Winds will be quite gusty as the temps tumble into Thursday morning. Northwest flow continues into Thursday although the airmass modifies under the strong sun. Lakes effect snow showers will taper off by the afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period as the extended winter continues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Yet another powerful system swings through the area Friday followed by a strong cold front. More rain and snow showers ahead of the system followed by lake effect snow showers into Saturday. High pressure builds in late Saturday into Sunday bringing drier weather and sunshine. Temperatures will continue well below normal, modifying a bit again on Sunday under the 1027mb high. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure in the mid west will lift into the Ohio valley Tuesday afternoon with its warm front slowly advancing toward the area. A mid deck will spread across the region later tonight then conditions will deteriorate as light rain moves into the region toward daybreak. Conditions will drop into the IFR/Alternate Min category during the mid/late morning hours across the southern terminals and into the Alternate Required category during the afternoon at KRME/KSYR. At KITH/KBGM, the light rain may briefly fall as light snow between 12Z-14Z. Light winds overnight becoming E/SE toward daybreak at 10 to 15 knots then SE/S during the afternoon with gusts around 20 knots. Outlook... Tuesday night...VFR-MVFR with showers. Local alternate restrictions possible in areas of fog. Wednesday...Cold front moves through the region, with winds becoming W/NW. Flight category reductions remain possible. Thursday and Friday...Flight category reductions possible with SHSN/SHRA. Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB/MWG SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...RRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
838 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 838 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 There is a decent sided area of northern and central CWA plains with northeasterly winds at present. The radars are showing these winds pushing southeastward. The RAP13 and HRRR do show this somewhat, but a bit later then currently. The current GFE grids do have some pops in them and that is good concerning real date. radars show some echoes along the northern CWA border right now. The new NAM keeps wind over the plains, northerly will past 06Z tonight. Will amend the GFE grids accordingly. As far as the high wind highlights go, will leave them as is for this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 West flow aloft has led to lee troughing and warm temperatures this afternoon. This evening a short wave trough currently over SE Idaho will dig southeast into Wyoming. Ahead of the trough a fetch of moisture extends from the Sierras ENE into Utah. Enough moisture and lift associated with the trough should result in mountain snow showers late this evening. The back edge of the moisture is easily visualized on GOES-16 water vapor imagery, and indications are for a brief period of snow in the central and northern mountains from this evening through mid-morning Tuesday. Amounts will be light and generally in the 1-4" range. The strongest lift remains north of our area and with downslope flow, no precipitation is expected across the I-25 urban corridor, Palmer Divide, and eastern Plains. The exception could be the far northeast Plains (Logan, Phillips, Sedgwick) where a narrow zone of lift is possible along the deformation zone just behind the front. Right now the P-type should be rain, possibly changing to snow at the tail end of the precipitation if any falls. Any precipitation that falls across the northeast plains will be light and most likely between 9 pm and 3 am. The weather story for tonight and Tuesday will be the winds. As the trough swings southeast across southern Wyoming tonight, unseasonably cold air at 700 mb will enter the northern half of Colorado. Cross barrier flow of 70-75 kts looks likely across the Continental Divide along and north of I-70 into Wyoming from 9 PM through 3 AM. At the same time, ridge top lapse rates bottom out to ~0 to 3 deg/km, potentially forcing the strongest winds down the east slopes. A final ingredient for the strong winds in the mountains and east slopes is synoptic subsidence. The strongest subsidence on the backside of the short wave trough is along the Wyoming border around 12Z, not timed ideally for strong winds but any bit of subsidence could aid in momentum transport. Thus, have hoisted a high wind warning for the high mountains north of I-70 and the east slopes. Some of those winds may make it to the lower elevations adjacent to the foothills early Tuesday morning, but confidence in the warning criteria being met there is lower. Highest gusts could be in the 80 mph range, especially in the wind prone areas above 8000 feet east of the Divide. Once the subsidence moves east of the mountains after 12Z the highest winds will be confined to the Plains. Brute force pressure gradient, full sun, and subsidence are the ingredients for the high wind warning across the northeast Plains. The lee trough today deepens into a surface low and gets kicked east as the short wave trough approaches, and by midnight tonight should be around 988 mb across E. Kansas. The strongest winds across the eastern Plains are likely from around 3 AM through noon. The ingredients marginally support high wind warning criteria, but confidence is high enough across the area for the warning. Gusts to 60 or 65 mph are possible through midday. We also have an RFW for E. Elbert and Lincoln Counties for Tuesday afternoon where fuels are favorable for rapid fire growth and RH is lowest. See the Fire Wx Discussion below. The downslope wind and April sun angle will be offset by 700 mb temps around -15 and -16 degC by mid afternoon with strong cold advection much of Tuesday. The result will be high temperatures 20 plus degrees lower than Monday. We expect highs in the upper 40s to low 50s across the Plains, with the warmest temps east of the Palmer Divide. Winds should weaken by late afternoon as the low pulls further east into the Central Plains. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 For Tuesday night and Wednesday there will be a moderate northwest flow aloft over Colorado. There will still be some strong and gusty winds redeveloping over the mountains late Tuesday night and Wednesday as cross barrier flow increases to 40-60kt. Appears strongest winds will remain further higher up along the divide and exposed higher foothills. Next system will impact northern Colorado Thursday night and Friday with the next threat of rain and snow. Models have been stronger during the past few runs with deeper moisture and upslope conditions. Have decreased temperatures on Friday and nudged chances of rain and snow upwards a bit in latest forecasts. Temporary drying on late Friday but this will be short lived as next Pacific system will impact mountains with more snow Saturday afternoon and night. Could be a slight chance of showers on the plains but overall moisture not that great with not much a upslope component. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 838 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Winds at DIA have been west or northwest later this afternoon and evening. Current radar data indicates a northeasterly wind shift may graze, at least, the southern half of the airport by 0315Z. Otherwise, models are sticking with pretty strong north- northwesterly winds after 06z, then northwesterly after 12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 838 PM MDT Mon Apr 2 2018 We issued another RFW for zones 246-247 from noon through 6 PM Tuesday. Winds will be on the high end across all of the eastern plains with a high wind warning in effect tonight through noon. We did not issue an RFW for any other areas outside of 246-247 because relative humidity should be above 20 percent across the northeast Plains in the cold air behind the front, and recent rains have led to greening up and wetter fuels north and west of the warned area. Our confidence in fuel status being ready to burn was high across E. Elbert/Lincoln, not confident across the rest of the Plains where significant precipitation has occurred the past week and we haven`t received current fuel status data for those areas yet. Will let the RFW ride as is for this update. rjk && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Tuesday for COZ042-044-046>051. High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ033>036-038-039. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ246-247. Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ246-247. && $$ UPDATE...RJK SHORT TERM...Schlatter LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...RJK FIRE WEATHER...Schlatter/RJK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
920 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide to the east on Tuesday. A strong area of low pressure will move toward the region Tuesday night and then move across the area on Wednesday. This system looks like it bring some snow to the north and west with rain for Downeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 9:20 pm update...There is an area of mid level clouds around 7-8k ft agl moving east across northern portions of the cwa. Most of these clouds should move east of the area during the next couple of hours. Some high clouds may begin to advance toward the region well after midnight as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Updated with the latest observations, cloud cover, and the expected conditions the remainder of the night. Previous discussion... The challenges this term will be temps and precip chances on Tuesday. Another chilly night setting up as clouds should dissipate after sunset. Upper level disturbance responsible for the clouds will be passing to the e w/clearing taking place. Sfc high pres to the s will ridge across the region and w/winds becoming light and clear skies, temps will drop off sharply. Areas across the n and w will temps hit the mid teens w/some sites across the Crown and back to Allagash Valley and Big Black seeing around 10F. The Central Highlands and Downeast will see upper teens to lower teens. Clouds are expected to start moving into the region from the wsw after midnight as a frontal boundary slide se from Canada. These clouds will also help to cat off temps. Some of short range guidance indicated the potential for some fog down across the Penobscot Valley. The GFS was the most aggressive w/the fog for the Bangor region. The NAM/GEM and RAP kept the fog at bay. Therefore, decided against adding any fog the Bangor region and interior Downeast. Another reason given is that the llvl will be dry for much of the night and slowly moisten after 12Z Tuesday. For Tuesday, clouds will continue to increase during the day. Cloud cover expected to be above 70% by 18z and this will help to cut down on significant warming. Daytime temps will be some 5-7 degrees warmer than they were today. Some of the short range guidance was showing some light QPF moving in from the w by late afternoon including the NAM and GEM as a frontal boundary slides se into the region from Canada. There is a 50 kt jet streak noted at 700 mbs that is expected to move into the region providing the necessary forcing. Llvls look like they will be dry starting out but should moisten up by late in the day w/help of sse flow. This should be enough to allow for some light precip. Attm, it looks like rain/snow or even perhaps some sleet given the low dewpoints. QPF will light maybe a few hundredths at best. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Interesting scenario setting up Tuesday night and into Wednesday with potential for several inches of snow across portions far northern Maine, especially the St. John Valley and north Maine woods. Low pressure will track east from the Great lakes region Tuesday night with overunning precipitation developing. The precipitation is expected to begin in the form of snow across the entire area Tuesday evening. Across downeast areas, including the greater Bangor region, expect the precipitation to turn quickly to all rain as southerly winds transport milder air north. A much different story farther north, as strong Canadian high pressure remains north of the border across eastern Quebec which be slow to retreat resulting in potential for some cold air damming. Significant differences exist among the 12z deterministic guidance this afternoon, with regard to the extent, and how long the colder air will hang on across the north. The GFS by far is on the warm end of the guidance spectrum, bringing H925 temps above zero as far north as the St. John Valley, for a change to all rain even there by Wednesday afternoon. The NAM on the other hand is stronger with the cold air damming across the far north, with its H925 temps remaining below freezing through Wednesday, with more in the way of frozen precipitation continuing into Wednesday afternoon. EC holds on the to cold air longer across the far northwest as well, as the primary low tracks to our northwest with a weak secondary low forming and tracking toward Houlton, helping to keep the cold air locked in across the far north. Have weighted the forecast for Wednesday a bit more toward the colder model solutions, thus keeping more in the way of frozen/freezing precipitation going across far northern areas into Wednesday afternoon. Couldn`t rule out warning level snow amounts across far northwest Maine (Zone 1), but right now thinking that most of the populated areas will remain in advisory level criteria, with the potential for 6 or 7 inches from Madawaska to Fort Kent. Amounts could get closer to 8 or 9 inches towards Allagash to Estcourt Station by Wednesday afternoon. Looks like the potential for advisory level snow accumulations across the remainder of northeast Aroostook, especially north of Caribou to the St. John valley. With warmer air coming in aloft, potential for some mixed precipitation developing by Wednesday morning as well. Any ongoing precipitation Wednesday evening across the far north will likely end as a brief period of snow before tapering to snow showers later Wednesday night as the low tracks northeast of the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Active weather pattern continues in the long term with below normal temperatures expected. Fair weather can be expected Thursday night before clouds increase in advance of the next system approaching from the Great Lakes region. Uncertainty still exists with regard to the track of the system later Friday and Friday night. GFS is farther south and colder, while EC is farther north, thus warmer. A model blended solution yielded likely pops for much of the area Friday with snow north and snow or rain down east. Conditions improve on Saturday, but upper trof across the region keeps the potential for at least the slight chance for snow showers, especially north and west. Drier weather returns early next week, with perhaps another weather system affecting the area later Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Looking at VFR into Tuesday. The caveat will be near KBGR and some MVFR cigs could set up by early Tuesday morning given the light sse flow. Will need to see how things progress this evening w/the potential for fog. As referenced above, decided not to go w/any fog attm given the dry llvls. SHORT TERM: Widespread IFR conditions expected Tuesday night through Wednesday in snow/wintry mix/rain north and mainly rain down east terminals. Patchy fog will also add to visibility reductions in precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. Conditions should improve to MVFR/VFR all terminals Wednesday night with northern snow showers still possible. VFR all terminals Thursday/Thursday night. Outlook for Friday is for potential widespread IFR in snow/rain. VFR returns Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Rather tranquil conditions tonight into Tuesday. S winds will be picking up during the day on Tuesday w/speeds of 10-15 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft w/gradually build to around 4 ft by early evening. SHORT TERM: Small Craft conditions Tuesday night will give way to increasing winds/seas later Wednesday into Thursday with potential Gale Force gusts possible. A Gale Watch remains up for later Wednesday into Thursday. Visibility will likely be reduced in rain and patchy fog Tuesday night through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... The latest model guidance has shifted things further e w/the track of the low center. This would mean a cooler scenario cutting down on significant unloading of the snowpack, especially across the northern river basins. Northern rivers are still 90% snow/ice covered and the latest forecast is calling for up to 6 inches of wet snow in the Northern basins before the potential for a changeover to rain or a mix of rain/snow. This snow absorb the initial shot of any rain. Further s across the Penobscot and Piscataquis basins, some snow/sleet initially going over to rain. Warmer temps in the 40s and lower 50s will allow for better snowmelt and runoff leading to some rivers/streams to rise, but to remain well within their banks. Therefore, any flooding threat looks to be low including the ice jam threat for the northern sections for this event. This will need to be monitored however as a shift back to the w would lead to a warmer solution leading to substantial runoff/melt. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Hewitt Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Duda Marine...CB/Hewitt/Duda Hydrology...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1151 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .AVIATION... Deep baroclinic zone from 925-500mb will progress steadily northward overnight lifting into the state during the latter half of the night. Top down saturation will commence under deep isentropic lift. Residual low level dry air will be slow to scour out initially, but will finally give way to a moistening column by mid to late morning. Rapid transition from MVFR to IFR is anticipated after daybreak Tuesday. Bulk of the event will be a straight rain precipitation type for most of the forecast area. A brief wintry mix of -fzdz/-fzra/-sn will be possible at FNT and MBS at onset. One uncertain part of the forecast is that snow my be hold as the predominate precipitation type at MBS for a few hours into the morning Tuesday. Warm temperatures will limit the impact. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible over Southeast Michigan, particularly during the late afternoon/early evening south of the I69 corridor. Confidence in coverage and timing remains low and will keep the mention out of the TAFs. For DTW...Precipitation will advance within vicinity of the airspace after 10z Tuesday. A very low chance exists for a brief mix of -sn/- fzdz at precipitation onset. However, this chance remains very low and predominate precipitation type will be rain. Most favorable time period for Thunderstorms will be 22Z Tuesday - 02Z Wednesday. /DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 this evening. Medium after midnight, high after 10z. * High for precipitation type to remain mainly rain Tuesday. Brief window for -sn/-fzdz at onset Tuesday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 DISCUSSION... Powerful upper level wave tracking through the Pacific Northwest today, merging with the subtropical energy along and off the Baja California Coast tonight-tomorrow, with very impressive 6 hr 500 MB height falls rolling through the Central Great Lakes/Ohio Valley tomorrow night, with the -190 M height fall center progged to track along to the southern Michigan border. Excellent moisture transport and low-mid level circulation tracking through southern Lower Michigan will assure precipitation tomorrow, and bumping pops up to 100 percent for late in the day. 850 MB dew pts progged to reach 10-11 C near the southern Michigan border, leading to negative showalter index south of I-69, roughly 20-2z Wednesday. Obviously 850 MB winds and 0-1 KM bulk shear of 60 knots draw concern for severe weather, but surface based cape is in question, dependent on surface low track or triple point. If the 12z NAM track south of the border verifies, will not have to worry about any tornado threat. Local probabilistic (SREF) weighted guidance suggests MUCAPES of 500 J/kg over Monroe county, but very low chance (under 20 percent) of reaching 1000 J/KG, and preference is to keep the good surface based instability gradient confined to northwest Ohio. A quick look at the 12z Euro also adds to the confidence any severe weather will likely be south of the border. Across the norther third of the CWA, there is snow and/or ice concerns. Tonight the 700 MB FGEN/front is mainly just north of Saginaw Bay, with low level feed of moisture advecting in over southeast Michigan. It appears with the the mild 700 MB temps (just slightly below zero) and lack of saturation, ice nuclei will be hard to come by, and thus any light precipitation that develops will be mostly in the form of cold rain or light freezing rain. Although, preference is with the Rap which keeps the majority of the night dry. With surface temps likely in the 30-34 range when precipitation arrives, doubtful there will be much of an impact before temps rise above freezing everywhere Tuesday morning, even with the stiff northeast wind off Saginaw Bay, temps will likely be stuck in the mid 30s in the Tri-Cities. Northern Midland/Bay counties stand the best chance of seeing snow during Tuesday, as 925 mb temps lurk around -3.5 C through 18z, before rising to around -2 C by 00z, per 12z GFS, but other models NAM/Regional Gem are bit warmer, not to mention the mid level warm layer should make it that far north as well as with the 850 MB circulation progged to track up that way. Pronounced Mid level (700 MB) dry slot moving through southeast Michigan will shut of bulk of precipitation by around midnight, but deformation/wrap around snow will be tracking through late Tuesday night, and light accumulations (1-3") north of I-69 are likely, as 850 mb temps quickly fall into the negative upper single numbers by 12z Wednesday, and into negative lower teens Wednesday morning. -19 C cold core at 700 MB tracking through the Central Great Lakes likely will be sufficient for snow showers to impact the rest of the CWA during Wednesday as well. Regardless of snow, temps may be able to drop below freezing for the Wednesday morning rush hour across M-59/I-69 corridors and points north, and will have to watch out for possible freezing of any leftover wet pavement. Weak upper ridging and surface high pressure building in from the Ohio Valley will keep most of Thursday quiet. Cold air parked overhead will limit highs to the mid to upper 30s for most of the region, but closer to the Ohio border may make a run at low 40s. Next chance for snow showers returns Thursday evening and overnight into Friday as a clipper system dives into the Great Lakes. This system will bring a reinforcing shot of cold Canadian air and keep highs much below average, in the 30s, for both Friday and Saturday. Friday will be gusty and brisk under cold advection and elevated pressure gradient. Dry air and expansive high pressure will move into the Great Lakes by late Friday and lead to a quiet weekend. Lingering thermal trough...850 mb temps in the negative teens C...will ensure this period sees the continuation of below normal temps, but some modification of this airmass with time will allow highs to slowly creep back toward normal values. A shortwave anticipated to traverse the central CONUS late Sunday will bring the potential for precipitation on Monday. MARINE... Winds will become northeasterly tonight and strengthen on Tuesday as low pressure encroaches from the west. Winds will then back to the north and then northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday as this low passes through the southern Great Lakes. The onshore flow will lead to elevated wave heights through the nearshore waters of Lake Huron with small craft advisory conditions expected from midday Tuesday into Wednesday. Gale force gusts will also become more likely late Tuesday into Tuesday night as the deepening low pressure system passes through the area. Gale force gust potential will persist into Wednesday as cold and unstable northwest flow surges into the area in the wake of this low pressure. A Gale Watch has been issued for parts of Lake Huron. HYDROLOGY... Widespread rainfall will spread into the region late tonight and persist on Tuesday as low pressure crosses the southern Great Lakes. While overall rainfall averages should range generally between one half and three quarters of an inch, a few thunderstorms will bring the potential for locally higher amounts on the order of one inch by Tuesday evening. Aside from ponding of water within poorly drained areas, these amounts will not be sufficient to produce any flooding. Colder air filtering into the region may bring a transition to light snow Tuesday night and early Wednesday before precipitation ends. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for LHZ362-363-421-422-441-462. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for LHZ463-464. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...SF/TF MARINE.......DG HYDROLOGY....DG You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
733 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 733 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 After a brief break late last night through this afternoon, the next weather system currently organizing in the lee of the Rockies over eastern Colorado is beginning to impact central Illinois early this evening. 00z/7pm radar imagery showed clusters of elevated thunderstorms moving across the SE counties...generally south of I-70. This convection is tied to a developing warm front that will gradually lift northward into central Illinois later tonight into Tuesday morning. HRRR has been handing the convective evolution quite well thus far, so will be following its forecast closely in the short-term. As such, have raised PoPs to likely along/south of I-70 where showers/thunder will be ongoing through the night. Further north, some patchy drizzle/sprinkles have been observed from time to time, but no measurable precip has developed yet. This will change as the evening progresses, with all high- res models showing scattered showers developing northward across the remainder of the KILX CWA by midnight. The precip will become widespread across the board overnight, warranting likely to categorical PoPs at that time. Will need to keep a close eye on visibilities over the next few hours as fog has developed across south-central Illinois and is steadily advecting N/NW into the area. HRRR/Rapid Refresh/NAMNest/GFSLAMP all show fog developing across the entire CWA by late evening into the overnight hours, with locally dense fog likely. Do not think fog will become widespread/dense enough to prompt a Dense Fog Advisory, mainly due to the prevailing S/SE wind of 5-10 mph and the developing showers which should help keep the boundary layer mixed. Even still, areas of fog with significantly reduced visbys at times will be the rule overnight into Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Precip is slow to move into the area but clouds have already arrived over most of the CWA. Fortunately temps have warmed several degrees or more above freezing. Sunshine and warming temps have also melted almost all the snow over the area, including spots where some of the deeper snow fell yesterday and last night. Also, fortunately, this occurred before the clouds moved in. So, any precip that occurs will be in the liquid form and am not expecting any freezing rain. A warm front associated with the approaching system will bring this over-running precip this evening and should increase in coverage during the overnight hours. So, pops will start as a chance this evening and then increase to likely for eastern and southeastern IL later tonight. Along with that, some isolated/elevated storms are possible just north of this front and into the warm sector overnight. As the low pressure area lifts northeast across the area, showers and isolated storms will continue during the morning and early afternoon hours, but mainly in the east and southeast; east and south of the low track. SPC has part of the CWA in a slight risk, but with cloudy skies and scattered showers through the morning, instability will be limited. Shear will be ok, but not great. However, decent parameters to indicate scattered severe weather is possible. Appears best chance of svr weather will be afternoon with best severe type being damaging winds. Cloud cover will hold heat in tonight and with warming continuing through the night, not expecting much drop in temps through the night. Temps will be warmer tomorrow, but based on path of weather system, warmest temps will be in southeast half of the area, with lower temps to the northwest...however all still above freezing. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Could be some lingering precip in the north and northeast Tuesday night as the upper level system rolls by, but dry weather is expected through Wed night. Then the weather pattern remains unsettled through the rest of the week and the weekend. Another chance of precip is coming in for Thur through Thur night with a rain/snow mix possible late Thur nite. After another dry period Fri through Sat night, another chance of precip is possible Sun through Sun night. Temps through the extended period will remain below normal for April. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 MVFR ceilings have spread across all of central Illinois early this evening...with IFR ceilings poised just upstream along/south of a KIJX to KTAZ line. Based on satellite trends and HRRR forecasts, think IFR ceilings will develop at all terminals between 02z and 04z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently tracking along/south of the I-70 corridor...with showers expected to develop further northward as the evening progresses. Have therefore brought predominant SHRA to KSPI/KDEC by 02-03z...then further northwest to KPIA by around 06z. Once the low clouds and showers arrive, they will stick around for the remainder of the 00z TAF period. Winds will initially be from the SE at 10kt or less tonight...then will gradually veer to the W/SW and increase markedly on Tuesday. The latest indications suggest winds will gust 20-30kt after 18z Tue as low pressure tracks into the Ohio River Valley. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1018 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .DISCUSSION... Under partly cloudy skies with a gentle to moderate mainly easterly breeze, temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the mid 70s. There are no precipitation echoes on KBYX Doppler radar, just drifting chaff west of the Marquesas. The evening local sounding shows the gentle to moderate easterly winds extend to about 8000 feet, and backed to the northwest through the mid and upper levels. Moisture has declined noticeably over the past 24 hours or so, and there is a convectively resistant layer between 5000 and 7500 feet. Am tempted to remove any mention of precipitation altogether through the overnight period, but the latest HRRR solution is bringing a low amplitude low level impulse westward across the area through the early morning hours. So, there may be a few light showers associated with that. But they should be shallow and weak, and a 10 percent probability of measurable rain will be maintained. No zone update is planned at this time. && .MARINE... No change expected on the late evening coastal waters update. Expect gentle to moderate east, or east to southeast breezes to continue. No advisories or cautionary headlines for small craft. && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail at both EYW & MTH terminals. Surface winds will be less than 10 knots and primarily out of the east. After 03/12Z, winds will become southeast and FEW to SCT clouds could develop AOA FL020. && .CLIMATE... In 1987, after a high of 65F and low of 56F the previous day (the 1st), the low temperature of 48F at Key West International Airport on the 2nd shattered the cold record for the date. It is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Key West in the month of April (with the next-lowest being 54F in 1891), and the next- latest sub-50F reading ever is 49F on March 04, 1980. 47F on March 03, 1986. Temperature records at Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...04 Aviation/Nowcasts....Chesser Data Collection......Chesser Visit us on the web at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
617 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .UPDATE...For 00Z Aviation discussion below && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Warm advective band has lifted up to along and just north of the I-94 corridor this afternoon. It`s about as far north as it is going to go. It has been a bit of an overachiever in the snowfall intensity department with visibilities getting down to 1/4sm - 1/2sm range in the band. IR imagery shows the cold cloud tops indicative of the stronger lift moving into WI this afternoon, so this fits the idea of what we are seeing with the HRRR and other models that this band will quickly begin to diminish this afternoon as this stronger lift works east. Next round of snow moves in with the strong wave that shows up in water vapor imagery over Montana. We did speed up the arrival of the snow this evening while also slowing down it`s departure on Tuesday as this wave will be deepening and taking on a negative tilt trough the day on Tuesday, resulting in snow lingering longer than previously forecast. Model agreement is pretty high for snow amounts Tuesday and changed very little from what we had overnight, with 6-10" of snow expected from south central MN up into central WI, this is where we upgraded the watch into a warning. Don`t think we will need to expand the warning much to the northwest based on the surface low track. Kansas City to Kalamazoo, MI is a little too far southeast to pull the higher snow amounts as far northwest as the core of Twin Cities metro. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Used the blended guidance in the extended, but did lower temperatures considerably in the extended forecast as the Upper Midwest will continue to be on the cool side of the thermal gradient. A few light snow showers Thursday afternoon and evening as the coldest air moves through. Looking ahead, another band of snow looks to move across Minnesota and Wisconsin late this weekend. All three models are in fairly good agreement in the development of this snow, but the ECMWF is just a few hours slower than the GFS and GEM. Something to watch as this has the potential to produce several inches of heavy wet snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Round 1 of the snowfall has shifted to areas along and north of Interstate 94, and will primarily affect northern/central sites with attendant MVFR conditions (KAXN, KSTC, KMSP, KRNH) early this evening. The next batch spreads from west to east across the area between 07Z and 11Z, with IFR cigs/vsbys becoming prevalent for much of the day Tuesday. Winds will also turn to the north/northwest, with gusts to around 22-25 knots developing. KMSP... Another band of snow with MVFR conditions will work into KMSP from the west around issuance time. Expect this to last for a few hours, with a brief break in MVFR vsbys until the main round arrives overnight. East winds gradually back to the northeast for the morning push, become gusty after 13z, then back to the northwest by 21Z and remain gusty. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed...VFR. Wind W at 10G15kts. Thu...Slight Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind W at 10G20kts. Fri...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ016-024>028. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ014-015- 023. MN...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ070-076>078-082>085-091>093. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ041>045- 047>052-055-057-058. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ053- 059>063. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ066>069-075. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ054- 056-064-065-073-074. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...LS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1021 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will lift northward across the region as a warm front tonight. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible with this cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1015 PM Monday... Taking note of the potential elevated convective elements of the forecast for the overnight and morning period on Tuesday. Definitely have stout moisture transport into the middle Ohio Valley in the low levels, but the best overall instability and low level convergence will be back to the west over southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana. HRRR is far more aggressive on the southern extent and coverage of the showers tonight, whereas the latest NAM run has a steady push of the low level f-gen to the north through time. In the end, will need to watch for any counties to receive multiple rounds of showers tonight. As of 205 PM Monday... A warm front pushes through the region overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Some showers may accompany this front as it moves through the area. As the front pushes northward tomorrow it will allow warm southerly air to move into the region. Temperatures tomorrow will tap out into the 70s across the lowlands and in the mid to upper 60s in the higher elevations of thee eastern mountains. Clouds will increase from the west during the day tomorrow as an approaching cold front will be knocking on our doorstep by tomorrow late afternoon and evening tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Monday... The aforementioned cold front will begin its march from West to East across the area at the start of the short term Tuesday night. Showers and storms will precede the front in the warm sector with a line or two developing immediately ahead of the front. Instability is our main limiting factor with the setting sun; areas toward the West in our SE Ohio/NE Kentucky counties top out between 700-900 J/kg sfc based CAPE, however bulk shear on the order of 45-55kts mean storms that do form have the potential to contain severe- level winds and hail. As of this hour, the SPC has the eastern boundary of slight risk roughly along the Ohio River in WV with SE Ohio/NE Kentucky being under slight risk and the rest of the western lowlands under a marginal risk of severe storms. In addition to the severe threat, PWAT up around 1.25" indicates the potential for heavy rain in storms. There is no widespread flood threat, however heaviest storms over already saturated grounds will produce localized rises in creeks and streams and may cause brief bouts of minor, nuisance-type flooding. The front exits to the East taking with it heavy rain and storms during mid- to late-Wednesday-morning. A dry slot works in briefly before CAA-type shower activity moves back in during the afternoon and evening. 850mb temps between -6C and -8C during the evening will allow for remaining rain showers to switch to snow showers in the higher elevations, though the season, sun angle, and waning moisture dictate only minor, short-lived accumulations. High pressure builds from the West to round out the short term. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... High pressure resides over the area making for a very cold Thursday morning with NW flow aloft continuing to reinforce the cold air in place. An upper level short wave, reminiscent of the more autumnal/wintertime Alberta clipper, brings our next weather system in at the end of the work week. Models agree on a cold front extending down from the parent low traversing the Great Lakes under the clipper entering the area. Timing differences are abound though - one solution has warm-frontal precipitation Thursday night with a Friday evening cold front passage, meanwhile another major long-range model features a daytime cold front passage Friday and a clean exit by sunset. Depending on how much cold air is already in place, and depending on how much cold air is brought down by the front, snow is possible. Beyond Friday, models diverge on the movement of the cold front after passing our area. The boundary may linger at the base of the long-wave trough across the southern/central Appalachians, leaving itself open for further development should another short wave act upon it. This solution would maintain some low-level PoPs at least across the southern counties. Weakly forced zonal flow aloft doesn`t leave much to grasp onto weather-wise, so have chosen to stick with the general blend of models, which suggests the above solution. The mean trough finally passes by the end of the weekend and ushers in a warming trend rain showers possible Sunday night through Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 720 PM Monday... MVFR gradually lifting this evening, and reflect that for the first few hours of the forecast except for BKW where moist SE flow has brought low ceilings that will maintain themselves under said flow. Do think they could lift to low end MVFR however after 03Z in a slight increase in wind velocity. Given the showers are with a warm front/warm air advection pattern, will not take sites down to IFR in precipitation tonight. Expect SW flow to increase tomorrow in the warm sector with the cold front on the move towards the area, but beyond the scope of this forecast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions may vary this afternoon and evening. Timing of warm front and MVFR conditions may vary tonight and Tuesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/03/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L L M L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible Tuesday night into Wednesday in showers and thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS/26 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1037 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .UPDATE... Tweak pops and weather and beef up winds and gusts for Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Radar continues to show some middeck light showers will may result in some unmeasurable sprinkles in E TX, SE OK and SW AR overnight. The HRRR is still showing some early shower or isolated thunderstorm development toward daybreak with no changes there. Most of the forecast elements in great shape this evening with no changes needed. However, we have gone with some higher gusts for the day ahead than indicated in the previous issuance. Also, made some wording changes for our expected max gusts in the Lake Wind Advisory product. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ AVIATION... VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminal locations this evening. Cu field near 5-6kft will remain scattered through the evening with mid and high level cloud cover gradually increasing in coverage across our terminal airspace through the night. A very strong low level pressure gradient will materialize overnight which will help to generate an MVFR ceiling deck which should rapidly move from south to north across the western 2/3rds of our airspace overnight and into the ELD/MLU terminals near or shortly after sunrise. Have left out mention of IFR ceilings as the strength of the gradient and low level wind field should keep the ceilings just above 1kft but will monitor this as we go through the night. Ceilings to gradually rise through the late morning into the afternoon hours across most locations as we await the ignition of strong to severe convection to ignite during the afternoon hours along and ahead of an upper trough and associated sfc cold front. Have made mention of VCTS most locations between 18z and 22z with prevailing TSRA across most locations at the very end of this TAF period. South winds this evening will increase to 12-16kts sustained overnight with higher gusts across our NE TX terminal locations. These winds will continue to increase ahead of the cold front after sunrise on Tuesday with most locations seeing sustained winds of 14-18kts with gusts upwards of 30kts. The winds will begin to shift around to the west and northwest just beyond this TAF cycle. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018/ DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows that our zonal flow aloft over the region is starting to become ever so southwesterly ahead of an approaching shortwave. As a result, the weak cold front is starting to lift back to north, as gusty south winds develop across the region. Radar imagery shows some light showers trying to develop in the warm sector over east Texas this afternoon. At this time believe any rainfall the remainder of this afternoon will be relatively light. May see a random lightning strike as well, but not overly impressed as we move into the evening hours. Believe that our far northern counties will see the threat of showers through the night tonight, as this system orients itself. Otherwise, the main forecast concern for this forecast period continues to be with the threat of severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a more potent cold front moves through the region. Although some showers and a stray thunderstorm will to be possible during the morning, expect the primary development organizing into a squall line during the late afternoon and evening. At this point in time, believe the primary threat will be with strong and damaging winds, but cannot rule out large hail or an isolated tornado as well, as most of the region remains under a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow. Drier and cooler conditions will develop behind the cold front for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Overnight temperatures in our northern zones will likely fall into the mid 30s, and locally a few of the colder locations may be flirting with the freezing mark. At this point in time, do not think we will need a freeze warning, but we may need to consider a frost advisory for those northern counties. Daytime highs will also fall to between 8 and 14 degrees below normal on Wednesday. However, temperatures will warm 3 to 6 degrees each day, with temperatures returning to near normal by Friday. Models are hinting at our next decent shot of rain coming late Thursday night and into Friday. This cold front appears to stall over the region Friday and Friday night, before slowly pushing out of the region on Saturday. At this point in time, cannot rule out severe weather on Friday or Saturday, but it is something we will need to watch for. Temperatures should fall back below normal for Saturday. However, warmer and drier conditions should redevelop for Sunday. The extended models are showing us potentially getting clipped by another disturbance for Monday, but confidence in low in this at this time. Palmer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 79 43 65 / 10 80 70 0 MLU 67 82 44 64 / 10 50 80 0 DEQ 60 72 34 62 / 20 60 20 0 TXK 66 75 38 61 / 10 70 40 0 ELD 67 78 39 63 / 10 70 70 0 TYR 68 77 41 65 / 10 80 40 0 GGG 67 78 42 65 / 10 80 50 0 LFK 68 81 47 68 / 10 80 80 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ070>073. LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...None. TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 24/13/28